Gold:

"the era of 'peak gold' has arrived", which is truly momentous, because it means that the "easy to get at" gold has been gotten at, and the rest of the gold left in the earth is harder to get to, and thus the rate at which gold is being discovered has collapsed when compared with the old days, which is just like the collapse in new discoveries of oil, which is where you get the phrase "peak oil", and they both have crucially to do with how a rising demand growth curve and a falling of supply growth intersect at that place called Lonely Street.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK29Dj02.html

Kaimu,

I do not know Gartman, or what his record is. I do know he is as often wrong as he is right. The most successful trader I ever knew was right on only 32% of his trades and he is highly profitable.

As for your bet, I’m not interested in the least. My goal is an absolute return, period. I applaud anyone who makes large returns since I know risk is relative to return.

I guess, I should just buy only gold, set up shrine and worship it daily.

Kaimu, you make a lot of really excellent points, you care and our passionate about your views.

Finally, I have two secrets the first secret about the stock market is there is no secret. The second is real wealth, real wealth is health.

Peace brother.

Greetings Planet Cara.

Here are today's U/D's for the Cara 100:

Upgrade:

UBS to Outperform at Credit Suisse

Regards

"The weather changes quickly."
Posted by: jasper at November 28, 2007 12:50 AM

Change in the Weather

jasper- a pleasure reading your posts...your well-chosen words/phrases always come across loud and clear (maybe it’s related to growing up on the grounds of Tulane)...went rummaging for my ’86 ‘eye of the zombie’ tape, as I think the john fogerty version of "change" is a great soundtrack for any market crash…and the best time to play it is when they’re ramping things up...

WFC- this has to be the first "reliable/credible" picture of mortgage-related losses, as wife has great respect for john stumpf and we are unlikely to see him come out in 6 months with any major "revisions."

QID has hit my target and I’m beginning to load up pre-market...don’t know when we start to go down again, but I’m moving the port towards the Bull Hunter camp in Lancaster county...

2nd,

You better get a horse and buggy if you're headed this way. :^)

Regards

2nd

(maybe it’s related to growing up on the grounds of Tulane)

As in the BIG Easy?

From the You Can Take It To The Bank Dept.

Just days after the August plunge, I seem to recall the vice-chairman of the world's most influential merchant bank (rhymes with "G-man sucks") saying on CNBC that he would not be surprised if, after the violent rally then in motion, the markets returned this fall to retest the August lows.

And lo, it came to pass.

isaiah- jasper definitely has roots in "NOLA," and i believe he has a childhood connection to Tulane...but i'll let him speak for himself...reading jasper reminds me of listening to springsteen, who can tell a story/conjure an emotion in 8-12 lines (philadelphia, youngstown)...

Great to have all of you on my side...

Without all, I really would have thought this rally has legs...

DJIA has to get to about 100 pts over the 200 DMA for me to change my bearish outlook...A LONG WAY TO GO IF YOU ARE A BULL...300 pts...

2nd_ave...Also looking to reload my QID...and add more FXP...

Just wish I had a way to short this market in my wifes 401K with Fidelity...

2nd

Ok.... I asked because that is where I started as a Petroleum Engr for Shell in the late 70's.

Time does go by...

Side note:I choked yesterday by not selling the QID .

Sorry...Wifes 401K with Principal...All they offer is ways to go long the market...

Or just park in moneymarket ..

bg- if the wife's account allows her to buy FXY (Japanese yen), think i posted a link a couple of days ago showing it's almost inversely correlated to all US indices...

FXP- adding at 77.45/QID- multiple lots pre-mkt/open-> 39 and change...
DUG/EEV on the watchlist

Short-term Bull case?

Prospect for rate cuts coming...
Disposable income is rising...
Employment still looks good...
Stocks are cheap on a historical basis...
Global economy is booming...
Just had a 10% correction...

Financials and ETFC are on a tear this morning.... The Slosh report seems to indicate a drop in funds sloshing around.

http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx

Scaling into INFY. 40.40.

jogyp- here's your chance to lighten up...

Bill would like to know your take on Risks in India and where your think they rank.

In reference to interest on India based companies (INFY, TTM, CTSH)not sure how many are aware of the risks in India's political/social infrastructure. For whatever reason these items are not widely reported in the press here.

Prime Minister on Naxalite (Extreme left wing communists aka Maoists) as the graveset threat to India)
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1489633.cms

On infiltration of top level government:
http://www.india-defence.com/reports/3032

117 policemen killed in one district in 2007 by
http://tinyurl.com/28baqc

Hammer wrote: "Short-term Bull case?"

'Prospect for rate cuts coming..."
Maybe, maybe not. A guess.

"Disposable income is rising..."

WHAT??? Please. pipe some light up there....
your USD lost more than any supposed gain in "wages". This is an idiotic, indefensible statement. Apparently you don't buy gas, food or medical care.

"Employment still looks good..."
Compared to when? 1933? Employment has not been at a level that keeps up with population growth much less "look good". Another indefensible idiotic statement.

"Stocks are cheap on a historical basis..."
Really? How much bad debt will the financials be bringing on their books in the next year or so? How much will your house be worth. You don't know and neither does anyone else, so you don't know true value of the market and neither does anyone else. More stupidity.

"Global economy is booming..." See pipe daylight comment above. Apparently some of us see a glass half full even when it's full of shit.

"Just had a 10% correction..."
Which historically leads to a further 8% down.

Now if we can only stretch our vision more than a day or two ahead....

The Christmas rally is here. Do you really believe that the PPT/Wall Street is going to let the retailers lose at this time of year? It will all be warm and fuzzy news for the next month. The bad news will come out again in January. The consumer is going to give December its last horrah before facing reality in the January.

2nd, I am planning to do it by end of day.

Here is one for swing trade for you
MRVL: Good results - Buy below 15, sell above 17.

Sanjay Dutt:

If you haven't read Bill's opening comments for today you should and if you haven't what part of NO don't you understand?

correction...if you HAVE read them what part of no don't you understand?

All,
You know, Bill has a lot to do and it doesn't take a lot to take the wind out a hard working man's sails. It is up to the community to police some of the garbage that gets posted here, especially the attacks on Bill's work.

While I don't want aggression or personal attacks, attacking faulty ideas is fair game and we need to be more vigilant in this regard.

Thus my slightly aggressive stand with Hammer and his statements. If he read here for even a few minutes he would understand how stupid they sound. We can all hear that tripe on Kudlow.

Lotsa bulls out there today...

Added to my FXP @76.00 can't believe I got a better price that 2nd_ave...

I'll wait till the lower low is put in around 12400 then I may put some money to work on the long side...AT WHICH TIME I WILL BE BUYIN GOLD

If FXP is getting near it's 52 week low of 69 does that mean that China's market is near it's all-time high again?

This market can rally as hard as it wants. I'm not convinced that everything is "rosy" out there and will add to my shorts.

Rob.

UXG at 3.61: Where will it stop? Getting worried now.

QID: in a little at 39.26
FXP @ 75.75
Still in DXD.

Bought some EMC for a trade and a little WGW.

JogyP

UXG at 3.61: Where will it stop? Getting worried now.

I'm sick to my stomach over this one. I'm in too deep to even considering selling.

didn't bill write something a couple of days ago along the lines of the "bulls" right now not being you/me/main street, but vested interests...

Do check out the up/downgrade page today.

At the bottom of the page are some new price targets for nine equites (one listed twice with different price targets).
For the ten listed, eight were reductions in price target, even on the supposed upgrades.

So analysts are telling us price targets are going down, not up.

Hammer1,

Are those facts or wishes?

I don't think employment and ergo disposable income are firm. Stock multiples are still above historical averages, so I'm not sure how you call that cheap. The global economy has been booming, but how can one flip from saying the U.S. is the dominant economy and is on the decline, to then saying that the rest of world will negate that negative impact.

I think we're seeing a bounce from the correction that we've experienced, but I'm on the side of "sell into strength". The best buys are down the road a piece.

It appears to me that the current strength in the market may be the "year end" rally that normally comes around this time.

Harry Dent had been looking for support to hold on the S&P around the 1400-1410 area which it did yesterday. This morning he advised buying any near term weakness.

Additionally, from a Wyckoff standpoint yesterday looked to be a day of accumulation on higher normalized volume.

I look for the market to move higher from here. Any break from the 1410 area on higher than normal volume would negate that viewpoint for me. Baring that scenario I expect higher prices.

That's my point 2nd. "They" are going to make retail rally one way or another. There is to much at stake. the news is going to be all good to make consumers feel good for a month.

I agree with Craig that the regulars should help police the comments. We're here because we respect Bill and his knowledge and also love trading. It's that simple. Anyone who has issues with that shouldn't be here and Bill shouldn't have to put up with their s_ _ _!!!

On a lighter note, GOOG and APPL are barely up. The financials are leading the rally. They were due for a bounce but I hope anyone buying them is doing so with a short-term plan because they have a long way to go down from here.
I have a hedge with 5 Citi calls for March in case they manage to bail out the financial sector but I really don't see how that's possible.

Rob.

FXP- adding at 74.96...

Isaiah,
Sit tight, stop looking at it for now. Gold is going down and gold miners with it. When it bottoms you will buy at the right time, lower your basis. If you trade gold or miners, every once in a while you are going to be scared to death. In my case that marks the bottom where I *USED* to sell in panic.

Now I scale into positions and worry less about the moment. (you should see my FXP position today). Scuba time.

Search your feelings young Skywalker....the force is with you.

Craig

LOL

stktrader...

What happened in the fall of 73?

From Contrary investor...

Not since the bear market of 1973/74 In very coincidental fashion, mutual fund investors in the 1973/74 period did not begin selling their mutual funds until well into/after the market had already completed most of its decline. The 73/74 precedent does speak to the fact that the NASDAQ could easily have another down year next year. Clearly a decline of the current level being followed up by another year of significant decline is not w/o precedent. It's happened before. Then, as now, we strongly believe that the public will be the key to the next leg down in the bear market, if there is to be a next leg down. It's during the second significant downturn in most "classic" bear markets where anxiety and fear take hold and the public reacts out of emotion. As you know, though, in 1974 we were facing significantly higher energy costs, the beginnings of the onset of serious inflation,...hmm, maybe we better just stop right here.

Easy Craig...

Indicated "Short-term bull?" with a question mark.

Rate cuts...bond rates say so.

Disposable income rising...what proportion of income does the general middle income family spend on fuel...it is minimal.

Unemployment rate...4.8% is historically low.

Stocks are cheap...PE is roughly 15 times earnings. Earnings may go down I concede.

Global boom...China's growth for example? Other countries outside of the US are trying to slow their growth...

Correction...How many 20% corrections have we had?

Just giving you the other side...I may not necessarily agree with all of it...just want to here the other side from some, I believe, smarter individuals than me. And from what I have read on this board, I think you probably fit that category. Thanks for your response.

JogyP and Isaiah64v4;

I bought UXG warrants a while ago.....I was in and out of this one early for a nice profit.... So when the warrants were issued I bought them and put them away......2011 exp. date....

I think you'll be happy with your uxg but patience is required....We are riding the "Jockey" and I think he is one of the best in the business....The extra risk in exploration plays, given the worldwide financial mess we find ourselves in,is being repriced ...DOWN...

Most exploration plays....Especially the diamonds are down....However if one of these plays hits the motherlode we'll have another Noront on our hands.... I like UXG...The Jockey and the area the claims sit on.....Patience...

Cheers.....DB

Craig,

Well said, and thanks for responding as you did. You voiced the thoughts I had when I first read Hammer's post.

Concerning the markets, I really don't know what to think. I'm almost entirely in cash at this point (not a day trader) and fundamentally it seems to me there's no place to go, longer-term, than down. Resetting ARMs, mortgage rates which haven't come down (despite Fed cuts), seriously bad consumer housing situation (and outlook), poor consumer confidence numbers--the list goes on and on.

It floors me watching the news when I see video of 'Black Friday' and hordes of people lined up like cattle, rushing into stores at 4 in the morning. Seriously people. If the consumer manages to spend through this holiday season, then how long until credit card delinquencies accelerate? Perhaps these folks are just chasing the deep discounts because there are tapped out. I don't know.

The thing is, depsite common sense and what seems logical, HB&B never cease to amaze in what they can pull out of a hat to buy time. If you look at a daily chart of the $SPX over the past year, the July-August decline looks very similar to the Nov-Dec drop we've just experienced; and we saw where we went from the August bottom. While I don't think it's probable we rally significantly here, it's not _impossible_ that we do, although I can't really see that without further declines in the greenback.

Personally, I doubt I'd have the conviction to go long here, even if the tape gets some love to the upside for a year-end rally.

Thanks to everyone here for their comments, the phenomenal majority of which are respectful, intelligent, and insightful. I think it speaks volumes to Bill's efforts and the community's repect and appreciation for those efforts, that this blog _does_ attract such a high quality following. You should be extremely proud Bill, thank you.

stktrader,

If the HB&B does manage to rally the retailers thru the holiday season, the old Bull Hunter is chomping at the bit, looking for an entry point into massive amounts of SCC.

Regards

DB

Thanks for your encouraging post. It is just hard to watch it fall as much as it has.

Several months ago I jumped in really big on what I thought was a big drop. That was before it fell off the cliff. :-)

But Rob McEwen + exploration in the USA + his lease is surrounded by major producing mines and the future outlook for gold has caused me to hold on.

So I'll sit tight.

Thanks again.

Hello all,

since I can only watch and wait today I'm reading a lot and will share links for those who wish to read.

China wins from credit crunch fallout

Special investigation by City staff
Last Updated: 9:42am GMT 28/11/2007

http://tinyurl.com/ynva6u

For a decade, China has deliberately insulated itself against the boom and bust cycles of the capitalist West by building up the greatest cash fortune ever assembled: a staggering $1.3trillion (£650bn) in foreign exchange reserves.
China's colossal war chest reflects its emerging status as a superpower challenging the West not only economically but politically, with potentially profound implications for us all.

Bull,
I am part of consumer services. It is already in recession. Believe me! That is why I am on the board these days. I don't have any work until January. Aquire an etf that shorts retail after the January retail numbers come out. From there it will be all downhill for the retails.

Its very strange that the market is rallying along with the dollar. I would think the two are mutually exclusive. I still think that if the dollar keeps rallying the markets will take it on the chin.

This is a very difficult environment to trade in as most tells are not working. It seems like the computers are in control and they have changed the rules.

Hammer1 responded:
"Easy Craig..."

Alright, I hit the easy button.

"Indicated "Short-term bull?" with a question mark."

Gotcha.

"Rate cuts...bond rates say so."

Yes, the grown-ups say so but that's why the yield curve has been screwed up, no?
Bonds say cut they don't say when. If we are to rally won't we need that Dec 11 cut? The bond guys don't get to do that....dammit.

"Disposable income rising...what proportion of income does the general middle income family spend on fuel...it is minimal."

First, the figures are lies. Then you have to subtract real inflation, not the liar rate the government wants you to believe, and you need to eat everyday. Fuel is burnt to get you food, to grow it, refrigerate it, transport it. You use consumer staples everyday. They are going up far faster than official liar inflation rate.
I supplied a simple example a while back...toilet paper, up 25%. I assume you use it....daily.... The USD has fallen from the mid 80's to the mid 70's, a drop of at least 10%.
THAt my friend is a wage LOSS, not a gain.

"Unemployment rate...4.8% is historically low."

First, it's a manipulated lie. Then they revise the lie. Even the lie number doesn't keep pace with population. 4.8% is a joke just like the inflation number.

"Stocks are cheap...PE is roughly 15 times earnings. Earnings may go down I concede."

More manipulation and lies. Until the financials come clean we don't know.

'Global boom...China's growth for example? Other countries outside of the US are trying to slow their growth..."

These countries don't have domestic consumer stasis. They sell to us. We are slowing markedly. when their customer goes down, they will too.

'Correction...How many 20% corrections have we had?'

Of those we had since 1945, 11 lost an additional 8% and lead to a bear market and nine didn't.

Just giving you the other side...I may not necessarily agree with all of it...just want to here the other side from some, I believe, smarter individuals than me. And from what I have read on this board, I think you probably fit that category. Thanks for your response.

For you Isaiah64v4

Don't be a Footsie neurotic
Last Updated: 11:47pm GMT 24/11/2007
Neuro-economics can help you understand your reactions - and get richer, says Jason Zweig

What goes on in your brain when markets are crashing? The new science of neuro-economics - a hybrid of neuro­ science, economics and psychology - has begun to shed light on that question. Within 12 milliseconds, or one-25th the time it takes you to blink your eye, upsetting financial news can activate the amygdala, a structure in your brain that generates emotions like fear and anger.

http://tinyurl.com/yrg4e7

Isaiah, Remember when I said a month or so ago I planned for 30% drop in miners. Could still go down further, so try to work into your plan some buying at some point if you believe in the long-term pic. By the way, I wasn't predicting that, just saying I was planning for it. Difference.

stktrader,

Unless I have bad info, SCC double shorts the retailers as well as some consumer services, inspite of it being described as a consumer services short.

Does anyone know of a better way to short the retailers?

Regards

Rough ride ahead as Winnebago in downturn

By David Litterick
Last Updated: 12:48am GMT 28/11/2007

Forget inflation and the manufacturing figures. Stop looking at the latest existing home sales figures or the data on non-farm payrolls. One of the most accurate indicators of an imminent recession is in and Americans should start tightening their belts.

Winnebago, the makers of the famous recreational vehicles so prominent on the highways of the US, is expected to post a decline in sales this year for the first time in six years. Buying a motor home is seen as the ultimate discretionary item, and over the past three decades, declines have always heralded a rapid slowdown in the US economy.

http://tinyurl.com/ysmf3w

UNG at lower edge of a 37.5 - 41 trading range established Sept 12. COT data a week and a half ago showed commerical traders net long (more than normal), which should be bullish for Nat Gas. Nat Gas report tomorrow 10:30ET

isaiah- when the markets all end in the red again, mornings like this will help you remember how much "work" it was...;)

MU- out at 8.46...

Craig . . . Decaf my man, Decaf. . . . agree with your statements, but “idiotic” sounds personal . . . . manx928 writes the same message without inciting. It’s healthy to hear other opinions even if we think its way off base. Sometimes they’re even correct . . . don’t want us to end up with “group think” . . . other times it confirms our positions even more. FWIW, Hammer1 did use the words “short term” even if the disposable income & employment comments seem out of touch with reality. Just my 2 cents.

BTW, speaking of decaf, SBUX showing life today after Cramer hammered (no pun intended) it last night. I just closed (buy to cover) my Jan puts (small loss) as I think the whole market will be headed down by Jan 19 expiration.

Northvan . . . thanks for the updated Commodity ETF information last night.

Speaking of recessions, it’s apparent to me from traveling & observation, the states of Louisianna & Michigan are already there.

moneygenie,

Thanks for the input on Winnebago.

In my area, the dealers can't even give them away.

Regards

Why does the bull case never mention the credit markets? Because they are in disarray and all bear markets start in the credit markets. P/E's "cheap" at 15 reflects past earnings, not future. Stock buybacks have contributed to earnings per share increases. Macy's just admitted that it will be much harder for them to meet earnings expectations (per share) after they suspended their stock buyback program. They basically admitted that they have been manipulating earnings per share through stock buybacks, and they aren't the only ones.

Also, isn't November year-end for banks? This rally may be some tape painting to make the books look better at month-end.

UNG- adding at 37.55

Seamus,
You are correct, idiocy was idiotic on my part.

Hammer1, please accept my apologies.

Thank you for the SBUX heads-up.

shark_attack mailed me this and felt strongly enough that he, with all his problems posting, really wanted the message to get out, so he sent it to me.

"Michael,

As you know I can't blog. But someone needs to tell the bloggers about the proper use of stops vis-a vis the UXG commentary of this am.
One does not stay in a position that's going
against you significantly, no matter who the damn
"jockey" is. One sets a reasonable stop,
electronically if one has zero discipline, and one
does not make emotional attachments to stocks,
jockeys, horses, or any other metaphore one cares to choose. Be loathe to buy into stories regarding stocks, jockeys, horses, etc. Finally, one does not "hope" for anything in the markets. Hope, it has been written, is the arch-enemy of successful traders.
Hoping is a sign that something's going wrong.
Horribly wrong in the case of UXG. Thanks."

There you have it. Pay attention.

A TA perspective, not that I align or not, just what may be the common technical viewpoint where only prices count and not fundamentals, is that 1490 has to be cleared for an intermediate up trend.
Personally, operating on one third exposure...with Bill and 2nd on the other shoulder.

Isiah64v4....One oil service microcap that may have a large upside at current depressed prices is outside nola: omni...hard to get good information, but just something that caught my attention and am following. A Don Coxe inspired thought...looking for companies that will help deliver scarce resources. "on the other hand" could become a dead corpse.

Re: ETF solvency

I understand that ETNs depend on the solvency of the issuer. What happens when the issuer or custodian of an ETF like GDX becomes insolvent? In the case of GDX, I'd imagine it would retain its value despite insolvency because it is composed of stocks of $GDM. I'd greatly appreciate more input on this, especially with Kaimu's warnings.

They are really kicking the stuffing out of the yen and franc here. Trying to manufacture a rally is hard work.

2nd_ave,

Two VIQs (Village Idiot Questions) for you, at your convenience. When watching the bid-ask quotes bounce around at FXP, do we watch the decisions of men or machines? Is there any significance to the high volume today? Many thanks IA.

TD Waterhouse is experiencing some traffic I think...

URG: Temporary System Problems In WebBroker

SUMMARY:
WebBroker is currently experiencing intermittent systems problems. You may see a 'Service Temporarily Unavailable' message when you login. If you receive this message, please try closing your browser and logging in again. We are investigating the issue and will provide updates as soon as new information is available.

Risk management is important...having cash available when you need it is important...making 4 to 5% without risk at times is better than to take a chance losing 30 % knowing that you have to make 42.85% to get back to even.

Tread wisely those of us that are relatively new to volatile markets....there are many in this game that are real experts in this type of daily action.

Posted by: TimG at November 28, 2007 10:59 AM

Thank you Sir, I was just going to post a Q to find out when report.

Thanks all.

PS. I am an energy, "holistic" kind of gal. So for any so inclined I will ask that we visualise LIGHT streaming into and out from ourselves to members of the community, especially Bill. Today might be a tough day but perspective is the Key. We are connected whether we believe that or not. in MHO.

Wavesmash:

Did some of us experience this problem yesterday as well at different firms?

Is trading volume up?

Is it taking longer to get your orders thru?

How does that factor into getting your price?

Bill,

I have been thinking of mentioning this recently. Have you ever considered switching out MCO for MHP in the Cara Global 100? MHP is seems to me a more "global" company. Their S&P brand/financial services as well as education make up a large global footprint. MHP also has a long history of dividend increases.

From their website: "The McGraw-Hill Companies has paid a dividend each year since 1937 and is one of fewer than 30 companies in the S&P 500 that has increased its dividend annually for the last 34 years"

Just thought I'd throw that out there. Obviously, both of these companies are in a difficult position right now, but seems to me that MHP would be a more consistent holding than MCO.

Apology accepted...

You are educating me...even if is forcefully done. I appreciate that. Thanks again for your response.

Sharkie is right.
1. It's best to set stops limiting your loss.

2. If you keep small positions you can monitor w/o too much problem, BUT this will include emotions.

3. If you are risking more than you are comfortable losing, set limits.

4. There has been several instances where our fearless leader has had to talk us through these tough times and dips. Each individual will need to determine where they are and their own level of comfort with losses or negative positions.

Jobs:

Anyone in the real world knows the job situation sucks. Even those of us in 'good jobs' can't escape the feeling of hanging on by our fingernails, staring over our shoulders into the abyss. I've had this conversation with people in better situations than I, and worse.

Ask people at Citi how they feel today?

The numbers:

If you look at the supposedly 'good' numbers last month, they did not even equal the number of people entering the work force, so there is still a deficit.

The number that came in was 166K. From our friend Mish, we get this breakdown:

"The overall numbers look OK on the surface but once again the devil is in the details.

* Manufacturing shed another 21,000 jobs this month and continues to lose jobs every month.

* Government added 36,000 useless workers.

* Leisure and hospitality (typically very low paying jobs) added 56,000 jobs.

But the amazing stats are once again found in the Birth/Death Assumptions.

The BLS has shown a net gain of jobs added to new businesses in both construction and financial activities nine consecutive months from February through October.

The BLS is assuming not only that jobs were added, but that new unaccounted construction businesses were created in this environment where business capex spending has been weak, housing has been horrid, and over 170 lenders have gone out of business or stopped writing loans since last December as per the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter.

Clearly this is reporting from an alternate universe."

The other thing you need to look at are income levels, which, if you use the REAL inflation numbers, are not just stagnant, but have been dropping.

It's not good out there. Out here.

Bill:

If you were not here, I'd be screwed.

Thank you, thank you, thank you,
Rookie

P.S.
Tip Jar or ???

moneygenie

Thanks for the article... I think I'll put down my MK-47 and suicide bomb vest and read it first!

:-)

Those with slow trading, make sure your firewall is not stomping on your trading platform.

Norton was very bad for me. McAfee works very well with the Scottrade platform.

Norton could literally hold my quotes and trades back several minutes. I thought it was my broker until I switched between my laptop and desktop. It's worth checking out.

Denny Phelps

You call a on the drop in the miners was dead on.

You have to sitting pretty now with your holdings. Good job!

shark_attack,

If I recall correctly, you were suspended at one time. Perhaps the block got enforced again by mistake. Maybe an email to typekey people is required??? But you may have tried that already, anyway it seems plausable to me since you were able to post from another location so it must be the ISP thing. Just a thought.

I'm seeking ways to keep my eyes off of the color red. If anyone wondering about my # of posts.

LOVE and LIGHT to one and all.

11.28.07
INFLATION STORY # 6

Winter is tip toeing into the Deep South (USA) and we actually have to use heat. My home uses two types of energy to perform this task:

‘Free” firewood. This starts out in 12-16 foot long scrap slabs cut from logs at a nearby sawmill, which I must load, haul, cut, split and stack.

The other form of energy is kerosene that escalated 20% per gallon from this time last year. This is ‘Home Heating Fuel’ with no road tax applied. It costs as much or more then over the road diesel fuel for large trucks.

Remember when good ‘ole’ coal oil use to be 10cents a gallon?

We needed some milk, which I normally buy at a globally owned German grocery store. It was out of the way on this expedition into town so while picking up a few hardware supply items at WMT Super Store, I strolled over to the food section and picked up a gallon of milk. Knowing this is where America Shops for Less I ended up paying 32.75% more per gallon than at the foreign grocer in our midst :(

PS Telestar3d: Nice 11.28.07 12:28A post. My AU/AG slept several decades also but is finally smiling now and like kaimu says, I still have the physical GOLD/SILVER and have come to the conclusion one must consider it a very looooong term investment. ;)

When I see this I find it hard to want to own DOW...and I can't say that I have a great social conscience when it comes to investing. Personally, sold DOW on the last downturn and was looking to re-enter on the basis of its increasing interest in supporting food production.

SAGINAW, Mich., Nov 26, 2007 (UPI via COMTEX) -- Dow Chemical is preparing to clean up what a government scientist says is the highest level of dioxin contamination ever recorded in a U.S. river or lake.

The toxic "hot spot" discovered in Michigan's Saginaw River measured 1.6 million parts per trillion, a level nearly 20 times higher than any previous find, The Saginaw News reported Monday.

Officials at the Michigan Department of Community Health issued a fish consumption advisory for the entire Saginaw River and a portion of Saginaw Bay.

TimG

Thanks.......

I read your post last night in regards to my wash-sale tax question. After the market closes today I have a follow up question for you.

I would like to scale into UXG here but I think that using Bill's "method" would be the conservative approach to take. 7 day rsi above 30 to enter.

I would like to scale into UXG here but I think that using Bill's "method" would be the conservative approach to take. 7 day rsi above 30 to enter.

ALOHA !!

Telestar3d ... I am passionate about the way the US government and HB&B conduct business or should I say conduct "fraud"! Where in the US Constitution does it say that all this fraudulent and Imperialistic policies are condoned?

The ETFs are risky ... People just dump their cash into these things on HB&Bs say so and nobody I have heard from reads the fine print or even considers "real risk" lurking in the agendas! ETFs have become the darlings of HB&B and to me that in itself is a BIG red flag especially when you have the likes of JP MORGAN in custody of your investment!

We'll just have to leave it at that!

Does Gartman want to take my bet?

You know every bubble has had its cheerleaders for HB&B. During the dotcom it was Mary Meeker and Henry Blodgett. During the fibre optics it was George Gilder. In the end 99% of the time the cheerleaders made the most money and their followers didn't! I consider Gartman the HB&B cheerleader for the gold "bubble"!

In the end we all have to do our own due diligence and we have to live with the consequences. 10-4 OUT!

YEP ... health is wealth! NO DOUBT!! That is one of the main reasons I live in Hawaii! I am sure a lot of people move to the Bahamas for the same reasons plus a few more!!!

C.Note:
In our area (we are a pretty big dairy state) milk has gone from $1.99 a gallon a year ago to close to $4 a gallon. 100%.

I try to shop at Cara 100 COST for milk. My regular store is directly across the street from wally-world. It's a Kroger company, Fred Meyer, much better than WMT.

money...
here is the economic calendar Bill often refers to:
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

One thing I like about IE 7 is the ability to have multiple home pages. When I lauch IE in the morning, it opens my broker, this blog, marketwatch (why I read this I dont know), kirkreport.com, bespoke, my google calendar and the econday calendar.

Isaiah, ok... but I'm no expert.

UNG seems to be getting hammered right along with oil after the supply data. I added to my position also.

2nd

"when the markets all end in the red again, mornings like this will help you remember how much "work" it was...;)"

What I'll remember is...

A L W A Y S... be flat at the end of the day!

If you are day trading.

If I would of jump off the train when you did with QID/FXP/DXD, and bought back this AM.

I would be singing "Life is but dream"
instead of "Nightmare of Isaiah Street". :-)

Rookie,

Where would you be if Bill Cara and Community were not here?
Same place as me, underwater, fiscally and emotionally.
But I'm not, because I've been:

Protecting my capital
Keeping my eye on the ball
Selling into Strength*

*guilty of missing a recent opportunity to do so in one position and now licking wounds.

Thanks again to the Community and Bill Cara.

This board reminds me sometimes of a college class, a professor and his charges. There will sometimes be students who will say inane, maybe insulting (to the intelligence) remarks. Then, the professor must feel "am I teaching here, or babysitting" and that would be disheartening. On this board, that happens infrequently, because it's such a well run operation, but it does happen. Then Bill, who is our financial mentor, senior advisor, has to deal with it. He does a magnificent job. I'm not smart enough in the financial arena to comment much, but I am learning a great deal just from being here.

GLD down 1.4% but GDX down 0.2%. I didn't think the gold miners would hold up so well.

****Attention Group ****

Just an idea to throw out to everyone.

Maybe tomorrow when you first sign in, your very first post should just contain the words

"Thank You Bill"

He would have a lot of them to scoll through and would definifely get the message.

ooops........

Bill you weren't suppose to see that!

Rally cries for policing thoughts is usually the first step in the quality of discourse going down hill. I like Craig as he is a tremendous contributor here but felt the response to Hammer was over the top. What exactly needed to be policed? As Hammer mentioned he was giving the other side of the argument and it was a fair post to put out there for comment.

Homogenous thinking of the group is not what you want here. If it is let me know.

For the most part there are almost zero flame posts so I am not sure why people get riled up so much. Intent is so hard to ascertain from posts as well.

Anyway, differention and counter view points is not only good it's what makes a market and keeps all of us on our toes.

Peace

Forgot full disclosure p.s.: We're underwater at 78 and holding.

I have fished the Saginaw river for Walleye before. It's too bad it's contaminated. If you only knew how beautiful the great lakes and it's rivers are. A travesty.

Kaimu,
Gartman is up 15.4% ytd. His gold position is scaled in at 50% and is hedged with an equal amount of puts to protect capital.

Geckojb,
My response was over the top as I did exactly what I was arguing against, which is personal attacks. I feel pretty dumb.

It isn'tthoughts or peple that need challenging, it's ideas. We do that everyday here.

The thing I was trying to convey, before I fell to my own "idiocy", was that the basic method and message here, supplied at some expense of time and money by Bill Cara, needs to be defended. Bill's mental health, physical health, labor, time, money, energy, all need to be defended if we are to continue to congregate here and to benefit and prosper from his labor of love.

If he doesn't love it, it will not be here.
I have been in similar situations in leadership positions in national organizations.

There is no shortage of people that will judge the best amongst us by their own goofy morals and standards. Those striving for excellence have a hard enough fight without having to deal with mediocrity or personal attacks on their DONATIONS.

As Van Morrison says, "We need to keep mediocrity at bay."

At the risk of being censored and banned....

Eight Main Symptoms of Group Think

Illusion of Invulnerability: Members ignore obvious danger, take extreme risk, and are overly optimistic.

Collective Rationalization: Members discredit and explain away warning contrary to group thinking.

Illusion of Morality: Members believe their decisions are morally correct, ignoring the ethical consequences of their decisions.

Excessive Stereotyping:The group constructs negative sterotypes of rivals outside the group.

Pressure for Conformity: Members pressure any in the group who express arguments against the group's stereotypes, illusions, or commitments, viewing such opposition as disloyalty.

Self-Censorship: Members withhold their dissenting views and counter-arguments.

Illusion of Unanimity: Members perceive falsely that everyone agrees with the group's decision; silence is seen as consent.

Mindguards: Some members appoint themselves to the role of protecting the group from adverse information that might threaten group complacency.

I have a UXG position, so I thought I would share my risk management strategy for people who are feeling nervous about it. I took a fairly small position, but I was still uncomfortable with it being almost $0.60 under my cost basis. So I sold some covered calls. I sold MAR 08 5 calls for $0.65. This decreases the downside, while limiting the upside, but I think the tradeoff is well worth it if you are worried.

For those not familiar with this strategy, this is how it works: I have a cost basis of $4.19 right now. If we get to March expiration and the stock is still below $5, the options expire and my cost basis effectively becomes $3.54 (note that this is slightly below where it is currently trading). In that case I've reduced my loss. If the stock blows past $5 at March expiration, then the options get exercised and I am forced to sell my shares for $5 each...giving me a $5.00+$0.65-$4.19= $1.46/share profit, or a 1.46/4.19 = 34.8% gain over maybe half a year.

While it's possible that UXG could go way up, and I could regret limiting my profit to that 34.8% gain, I still don't think I'd cry too much over that kind of return. Especially if you are "in too deep to even considering selling". Of course, if your cost basis is above $5.65, this almost assures you a loss, so it may not be the best plan.

The only real downside here (aside from missing out on a huge upward move) is if you think you might want to sell your UXG shares before then, in which case the options might end up costing you a little more money to get rid of (I refuse to be short naked calls).

Anyway, it's something to think of. It's amazing how many times I've used options to "fix" a broken trade. In fact, I have a large calendar spread on KRY that has mostly offset my losses to date, and which could turn it profitable when the near month (Jan 08) options get close to expiration.

maggy,

Reads like an episode of Kudlow & Company. :^)

Regards

The Etiquette of Weblogs - 2 Rules

1)Never, ever launch a personal attack on someone (especially other bloggers). Not only does this lessen your own credibility, but it also causes problems which are likely to never be resolved satisfactorily.

2)If you ever become the victim of such a personal attack, the best policy is to ignore it. If you get involved, you are taking time away from the valuable construction of your own material.

i hate to say it but i placed a small gold miners short position via the HGD in canada, that double shorts the XGD gold index.

im up %1 and basically waiting to see if gold
can break back above $800 and stay there this week.

the RSI-7 on the canadian miners is showing a solid downtrend by connecting a straight line from the september peak to now.

MACD has is trying to make a cross into a buy signal but it remains unconfirmed.

im wondering if gold is waiting to bust through $850 on the next rate announcement, or if its set to plunge if no cut is announced.

holding....
holding...

Korvus

Thanks for the detailed explanation on your UXG strategy.

I got 2 problems on why I can't use your strategy.

1) I am not that far along in my trading skills to buy "puts & calls"

2) My cost basis is 5.30 [ouch!]

Maggy, thanks for posting. This was what I was pointing to a week or so ago. It wasn't received well so I kept my mouth shut since.

Moving on...Here is something for the group. George Slezak's is offering a free one week trial of his website www.stockindextiming.com. Code=alpha, password=123.

Who is George Slezak? I dunno but timer digest has him #3 market timer past year. Saw it posted elsewhere and thought someone here could get use out of it. Report back if you like it or find it helpful.

From AP just now. Note the paragraph buried deep in the article. I include it at the end.

Bear Stearns Cuts 4 Percent of Staff

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: November 28, 2007
Filed at 12:06 p.m. ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- Bear Stearns Cos., the nation's fifth-largest investment bank, on Wednesday said it will cut 4 percent of its staff in further fallout from the summer's mortgage turmoil.

The company will cut 650 jobs in all departments from its staff of about 15,500. This marks the third wave of layoffs at the battered investment bank, which as of last month had cut about 900 positions throughout the firm.

Bear Stearns has been among the hardest hit on Wall Street as investment banks reel from deterioration in the subprime mortgage and leveraged loan markets. The biggest global investment houses and major banks collectively wrote down some $80 billion worth of assets because of the market crisis this summer.

[...]

Cayne, who owns about 4 percent of Bear Stearns, has refused to relinquish control of the struggling firm. Instead, he pushed out former president Warren Spector in August. Spector did not receive a severance, but was allowed to keep stock and option awards worth about $23 million, according to a regulatory filing.

[...]

Russell Sherman, a spokesman for Bear Stearns, said the jobs cuts would come from across the firm and were not restricted to one particular business. However, a person familiar with the layoffs who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter said cuts would likely come from the operations side of the business -- including information technology and legal and compliance departments.

========================================

So, a bunch of IT geeks, like me, who had nothing to do with creating this mess, get pushed out the door while the CEO hangs on with both claws and the VP who got shoved overboard is 'allowed' to keep his 23 mil.

It's a cold world.

Korvus,

My thanks, too, on providing the detailed explanation of your strategy. I'm at the stage where such examples are of excellent value!

Craig:

"3. If you are risking more than you are comfortable losing, set limits."

I think I know what you are trying to say but "If you are risking more than you are comfortable losing" then I assume you would set your limits at what you are risking... but then then you would lose more than you were comfortable with if you were stopped out.

In this case I would adjust my risk level to my comfort level then set my limits.

I agree with the various comments here about needing freedom of thought in discourse so there is no stifling of opinions. Group thought would be boring. However, just take a look at a stock like KRY, for example. It has many message boards and they are so over the top out of control that serious investors took to forming private members groups. Otherwise, there was no intelligent conversation going on. You might say put them on ignore, but when there are more on ignore than not...what's the point. A little structure, or control, seems to be needed in public forums.

I don't know, that group sounds like ruminants, not humans. That group would need to be closed/limited, ie: unable to hear or learn from any information source outside the herd.

On an internet blog that would be difficult.
Of course one thing about groups...they get together for common reasons/purposes, which does expose them to group think if they aren't careful. This blog would be WWIII if we all didn't have similar views of the world or the maturity to discuss them without losing it, and someone we respected who's view point and opinions matter to us and who keeps on the alotted task. We are an "US", a group...and we do think.

Afterall, it has been said many times, we are all connected.

I think I will be a day early.

Thank you Bill!!!!

Thank you Bill!!!!

Thank you Bill!!!!

Thank you Bill!!!!

We are having a rare thunderstorm here in Honolulu.

added to my UXG position also today @3.57

Just want to say I for one am pleased and impressed at how this morning's blogging crossfire has turned into a healthy discourse. I hope Bill's seeing enough of this to recognize that he's facilitating and inspiring a quality forum, (the little hiccups are part of it's evolution).

Thanks to Hammer1 and others for offering up contrary thoughts.
Thanks to Craig for having the grace to apologize and engage the debate.
Thanks to Molly and JogyP for passing along some words of wisdom.

Anyone look at the daily chart of JCP?

MACD divergence? If xmas sales surprise could see a pop in the short term. I realize the retailers are in a tailspin. JCP is down over 45% this year. Can I say...the risk might be "minimal" in the short term?

craig- van morrison: it's not easy being green (!)

buying some JPY hedge here.

using this: http://www.goldman-sachs.de/isin/detail/DE000GS7MS50/

Hammer1,
Did you see Bill's list of retailers to watch yesterday? You may be onto something....

BTW, please, everyone, if I screw-up don't hesitate to let me have it. I can take it.

Thank you Hammer1, Seamus, Geckojb, Maggy and anyone else I might have missed.

Bill,

RE: MHP/MCO

Thanks for your response. I agree with you at this point, neither deserve the spot in the Global 100 right now, but sounds like you agree that MHP is stronger and less vulnerable than MCO due to its more diversified businesses. Always interested to hear your take!

As far as a (perhaps European) replacement you are looking for, you may consider adding Areva to your considerations for an industrial. They are really at the forefront of the nuclear revival including a new $12B contract for new Chinese reactors. I think it may be one that could have a lot of staying power in the index. Just a thought.

And now to share one of my strategies, (unproven as yet) ...

RY-T

I'm putting a tight stop under this one now after a couple of days of good gains.

I've observed that this big Canadian bank stock can move 5% every month. By combining swing trade strategies with my investing strategy, I'm trying to take advantage of at least part of these 5% moves on the long side. If I catch the swing right, I sell and wait to reload a couple weeks later. If I get on the wrong side, I just wait it out, figuring that I'm better to wait for a gain than lock in a loss. I'm still confident that the big Canadian banks aren't going to fall off a cliff. Which also explains why I avoid going short.

Theoretically, if I can catch 5% per month, that's 60% per year. Pretty nice return for an investment that has very limited risk.

RY-T

To add to the above comment ...

I'm thinking that $53 is now acting as resistance where it was formerly support. If I wind up out at $52.50, I'll be looking to re-buy at $50 or under.

Craig, it's beautiful to see someone with humility and shelve their ego. Very respectable.

Geckojb:

"Intent is so hard to ascertain from posts..."

Isn't that the truth.

I am just learning this e-mail and blog world lingo and am beginning to understand why we need :>) and LOL. BTW IH3ptz.

BTW ru a THUMBER or a YUPPER or a?

test

Major repair today of the negative market internals we've seen since downtrend accelerated this past month.

So which is correct: the Dow Theory sell signal at 12845 a few days ago or the more postive bias to the markets after the +3.8% rally since yesterday's low? While there are many reasons to be bearish, I have to give the edge to the bulls, for now. Best time to tell though will be next Monday/Tuesday, after auto. month-end buying is complete and after the market has had a day or two to digest Monday's 10:00AM ISM Manufacturing index release.

JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Korvus,

My thanks, too, on providing the detailed explanation of your strategy. I'm at the stage where such examples are of excellent value!

Posted by: manx928 at November 28, 2007

Agreed....

One of my goals for next year is to make my first plunge into the world of options ..but much work to do on learning how they work etc.

I believe today would be a great day to add some Jul 2008 puts. Take your pick.

Hi Golfer..a thumber, living in the burbs,smack dab in the middle of recession USA. I am also a hunter and ice fisherman (noticed your postings on the subject a few days ago).

Isaiah64v4,

I've only been trading options seriously for about six months, and I think learning the basics of buying and selling calls and puts can be really useful. Selling covered calls is one of the easiest strategies to learn, and in this case it could help. Even at your cost basis, you could still use it as a protective measure, especially if you think the big gains will be far off (after March, in this case). You might want to look into it.

Jeff

my 2 cents on blogging etiquette:

--no personal attacks
--stick to blogging about markets, securities,
companies, etc. go offline if you want to
discuss everything else.
--maximum of 3 paragraphs per post
(concise is better and I believe that
diatribes do not below on a blog)
--ban violators after warnings
--always thank the moderator/mentor

other thoughts?

Thanks Bill!

JWibbs

2nd,
FXP has started to trade negatively in relation to FXI, a neg divergence to FXP.

I still think we are correct to hold, but it may be painful until either no Dec. cut or January.

But I'm waiting for some moderation to today's glee into the close. I may be disappointed.

Would gladly buy SKF at today's low of 94.51
I think that comes back soon.

Thanks for the afternoon comment, Bill.

Regards

Bill,
Re: Bear Trap

You said you didn't feel like blogging but you did and I'm grateful.

My gut says that the trap slams shut in the blink of an eye.

krovus

"I've only been trading options seriously for about six months"

Can I ask how you got started?

Bill,
I agree totally with your last post. This is completely a bull-trap.

Even the FED's Kohn, who everyone's attributing this rally to is very negative in his statements.

http://tinyurl.com/3cnfmq

"The degree of deterioration that has happened over the last couple of weeks is not something that I personally anticipated"

"uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high"

"The housing sector has continued to decline and to erode at a very, very rapid rate"

He doesn't sound too cheery to me.

And look at FRE up 15% because they're cutting their dividend in half.

Total pumping and short squeezing that could go on until Monday but I suspect it will end sooner.

I'm not dropping my shorts!!!

Rob.

Bill says "Bull Trap", not bear trap, although right now I've got something caught somewhere.....

An important distinction between bear and bull!

Maybe we get a "favorable" (?) beige book.

Holy Freudian Slip, Batman.

Yes, I meant to write Bull Trap.

Holy Freudian slip. Yes, it's Bull Trap I meant to write.

I want to thank you, Bill Cara, for doing what you do for this community. You have no idea how much it means to me and how much good you do. You scared me a little bit today, I thought for a moment as I was reading, that you were going to stop blogging--sheew,relief! I've been reading your commentary on this blog and on Seeking Alpha for well over a year now. I have never met you in person but I feel as though I know you through your writing. We here NEED you, you don't need us, and yet you generously offer your knowledge and experience for all wise enough to listen and maybe learn something they did not know. Almost all (maybe all) in this community, I have come to believe, are good people. We are all judged by the thoughtfullness and the intent of our of our discouse. Nothing is frivolous, it all adds. You do have some Great people in this community--I could mention names, but you know who you are, LOL. Gus.

Thanks for posting your thoughts Bill. Calculated risk has a nice article on commercial real estate hitting the wall. I have been in this arena for 34 years and can attest to this. Sorry about not posting the link - last time I copied and pasted it vanished. So anyone thinks its a good article post for others and tell this dumb dumb how to do it. Thanks

Bill,
In regards to UXG. If one wants to accululate this miner would the Cara Method be the way to begin? It is still below 30 RSI7 on the dailies.

Thanks for posting your thoughts Bill. Calculated risk has a nice article on commercial real estate hitting the wall. I have been in this arena for 34 years and can attest to this. Sorry about not posting the link - last time I copied and pasted it vanished. So anyone thinks its a good article post for others and tell this dumb dumb how to do it. Thanks

Budda Bill,

Great analysis!

"So, this is a Bull trap. The gap up this morning gives evidence of a trapping technique."

I would of never known such a thing existed.
Yesterday was the first time I ever heard about a possible bear trap.

Mr Cara your blog and posts like these have helped so many people especially the more inexperienced people like me. I would of ended up going to slaughter if I hadn't been warned this was a trap.

I plan now to just go ahead an sell into this rally and fatten up those bulls headed to slaughter. Better them than me.

Thanks!

I havent turned on the tv today. are the talking heads drooling at the mouth looking at the camera like a hyena who hasn't eaten in a week?

GRgold

Ditto........ to your post!

Major miners/gdx are in the green. Still looks insane as the negative divergence with rsi/and other oscillators is profound.

I am examing my emotions on a day that normally I would be heavier invested and breathing easier thinking, yep this is another buy on the dip and that we had the 10percent nick. These are the days that account for the vast majority of a year's up tick and thus, one has to be invested or risk missed opportunity. That's not a well embraced line of thinking around here but a momentum player for the last four years would have made a routine annual 30 plus percent just taking the meat out of the middle. And, trailing stops can perform just that trading horses about once every 3-4 months.

"On the other hand", to truly believe that these last two days are about manipulation in order to take our money it really is a sickening feeling just holding onto the one third in equities that I have. It would not be worth a few more up days. My largest stock position is GE in my taxable account. I bought it in 2003 as a conservative core and now faced with, "Is this the day I should sell into strength." It would free up some cash and help me rest more comfortable in a major downturn, but I'm not yet there. Indecision is a bitch.

ALOHA !!

Okay ... Gartman ... Hey you're beating the S&P ... Good job 15% ytd! I'm doing 3 times better than that and I'm not in and out hedging! So he's into some stocks also? Had he just bought gold when I last did at $651 and just sit on it he would have a 23% return ytd now! Jeez Gartman ... GOLD is a hedge buddy! How many hedges do you need to hedge the hedges? In my book only one ... and its not GLD!

Okay cash out of the Gartman portfolio and what do you have?

15% minus capital gains taxes of 15% so that leaves around 12%+/-!!! Now you're in the "real world" and 15% won't cut it! That doesn't even beat the 28% hike in fuel surcharge that Matson just announced! Or the 34% FedEx fuel surcharge! That doesn't even beat the 35% price rise I am paying for cardboard boxes coming in Jan 1 2008! Also a 8% rise in rubber band prices. A 30% rise in plastic sleeve prices. A 16% rise in plastic tubes prices. This is just the little old FTD flower industry folks ... What are the inflationary costs in the medical biz going to be? But the biggest whopper ... what is the cost of supporting a US MILITARY WORLD POLICE going to be? Wheres that calculation in all these black boxes and Kudlow? If the US government and Wall Street ever got honest we'd all be as broke as the USSA! Hey ... give em time they're working on it! <