I'm a huge believer in sector rotation. One drawback, though, is getting some agreement about where we are in the economic cycle. I've provided this reference before, but I'll put it out there again. George Dagnino at http://peterdag.com/ has the business cycle mapped out. Click on his commentary--it's basically a FREE book on line. If you do nothing else today, please CONSIDER reading this. IT will dovetail nicely with Bill's commentary: http://peterdag.com/s_files/bOmPGmPkMsvB.pdf

Lesia... I'm going to have to return the royalty check to you. It was your link to the Jeffrey Saut article that lead me to that quote.

But I thank you for the 15 seconds of fame.
Now I'll slip back into obscurity. :^)

PS: Girl you can write! I really enjoyed your post this morning "On Hunting Dogs, Bulls and Bears". The hunting dog analogy was clever.

craig-

S&P futures have moderated quite a bit from last night's 16+, so i have a hard time calling it a "strong open..."

would be wary of adding to the short side on an open which has drifted down to a "muted" state->think the risk is skewed towards a bear trap...and a better set up for adding to ultra-shorts happens later today or tomorrow...JMHO...

DUG- set to open up 2%->plan to take it off
QID/FXP- holding fractional positions and see no reason to change anything...
C- will open below the close, and contemplating a buy...

Yesterday I asked...

"Anyone betting on a bounce this afternoon around 2pm? The Q's won't be happy otherwise... the bottom is pretty deep."

http://tinyurl.com/2bh6u3

I don't think anyone answered me... which probably answered my question anyway.

Anyone playing the E*Trade today?

2nd
"...(i see you've been disembarking at every way station and buying tickets north and south)
isaiah's northbound ticket (SSO) just paid off..."

I hope so..we'll see shortly... I keep looking for the 2nd_ave express line to "Easy Money St."

When you leave the station today don't forget to yell "Aaaaaaaall aboard!". Jaketh, Moneygenie and I don't want to be left back at the station.

Will be watching the short ETF's today very closely.

2nd, Keep an eye on DUG.
Still holding QID/DXD. If we get a push will add. Expect weak close on weak/mixed Asia and Europe tape.

NOT.V- scaling (20%) back in at 4.84...

WFMI is down 100% :)

http://tinyurl.com/2lfbvl

FranSix:

"About gold juniors"

a great post.

thanks.

regards

joey

Wish I would of bought a 1st class ticket on the SSO train yesterday. But even in "steerage" the ride so far is very nice. Just need to decide at what station to get off at. Mmmmm maybe 2nd_ave sounds good!

2nd,
"DUG- set to open up 2%"

Where do you go for this info?

TIA

2nd,
"DUG- set to open up 2%"

Where do you go for this info?

TIA

DUG- out at 45.03...

jaketh- DUG: just look at the pre-market bid/ask...

craig- agree the market is still headed down->an infusion of capital into C is not the same as "coming clean," more like another rabbit...but the slow-motion rally just seems like it could take off at any time and i don't want to be around if/when the trap snaps...plan to add to QID if it drops below 40/FXP below 80->o/w, fractional positions at least ensure a small payoff if it should go the other way..

DUG: Out at 45.55
QID: Scaling into reload here.
DXD: ditto.

Gotta call on NOT.

HRB earnings postponed. I just got off the phone with their IR dept. wouldn't give me a new date but said it was "attributed to all the recent changes."

She did confirm it would be def before the new yr.

Maybe they are holding out for after Dec 11 potential rate cut. and enough time for their friends and family to get out? there was a large 500K+ block trade this am at $18.85.

the plot thickens. or maybe their is no story at all and i am mis reading the situation.

HRB - To clarify, they never officially announced Dec 6th as the date. but they have told this to me on several occasions over the phone, as well as other investors.

Wonder why oil is taking another pounding today?

Because the consumer confidence number put a fork in that balloon.

Reloaded ultras looking good now.
Wish I had held DUG, but no whining allowed over profits.

I like TWM here (or RWM for lower risk/reward). If you're trading it, set a stop using the RUT @743.

Yesterday, the Russell collapsed with the rest of the market. And, unless it recovers soon, I see nothing but air until 670 or so.

The market under S&P 1420 is in a very weak position. Selloff is continuing now but 1406 will be defended as the lowest close in August.

Don't lose sight of the fact that some stocks are climbing in this tape. Two that I watch that were up yesterday and today are LAYN and CNH.

Remember the Dubai Ports World controversy? http://tinyurl.com/39morg
It's not okay for Dubai to own U.S. Ports but it's okay for Dubai to own the biggest U.S. banks??

Bill....

"But, let's see what happens after Europe closes today"

What is your gut telling you? Up or down?

Gabriel Resources GBU.TO loses one battle in the political process:

http://tinyurl.com/24v6tt

So as it turns out, many companies are experiencing difficulties in the junior gold sector, probably due to more astringent regulation. In some ways its good, in other ways, it does not favour the sector. But it places the focus on other companies that have their ducks in order.

"My mother hits harder than that!"

Come on, Abu Dhabi , show me something. :^)

GBU.TO long term chart:

http://tinyurl.com/3bl8n3

Isaiah,
"Down, down, my friends."

Let's not skim over the obvious! LOL!

Isaiah--thanks for your very nice comment.

Moab

re: watching CNH

CNH on my AG (equipment) watch list. Received a Goldman conviction Buy today. No position.

QID @ 40.80

2nd,
Looks like they might come to you at your price.
I'm waiting....just small positions, took some profits earlier.

Leisa: Thanks for the .pdf!

Until 1410 area is decidedly beat, technicians may say the LT trend is still intact. Denial? Must be a lot of folks on the fence, waiting it out. One rally up, two rallies down.

2nd ave:
Can you share how you are using fidelity's platform to buy/sell canadian juniors? Personally, I put a quote symbol (ticker.v) on my watchlist, assume that it is real time(?)and in cn dollars, and if I want to trade I go to xe.com to figure out the currency exchange and add 1cent as required by those scalpers, and then place the limit order. Kind of complex. Do you have a shorter way? Do you not use limit orders? Looks like you are really capitalizing on volatility. This is your niche.

three lots of C between 30 and 30.36...

Made $65 on QID this morning. That paid for the sump pump rental to drain my pool and the sandaper to sand the walls before I fill it back up. It's been 5 years. I had to do it before the manditory 30% water cut backs starting on Jan 1 in rural ag Fallbrook, CA.

My SSO is chooo...choooing along.

Leisa,
I concur, nice post, tidy conclusion. So you execute, trade, cook, take great photos, and ponder the timeless questions; can you sing, too?

DXD 53.72
QID: 40.65

Can someone help me out with money management.
In Van Tharp's book, he talked about 1% risk, which sounds good.

However, if I am holding 100K, and opened several positions with each position at 1% risk. The total portfolio risk exposure is greater than 1%.
Wouldn't it be easier to hold fewer positions with higher risk and watch it like a hawk.

Your comments please.

Foreclosure swallows new subdivisions before opening

http://www.ajc.com/services/content/business/stories/2007/11/25/foreclose_1126_web.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=6

Great piece by Nouriel on "Privatizing profits and Socializing Losses" re Country wide and others. he should team up with Ron Paul.

http://tinyurl.com/2mq658

Added some fxp to my retirement account...

Looking to add on pullbacks

Seems like a good longer term hold...

Or short if I can keep up with craig and 2nd_ave..

Out of SSO @82

rode that train too long

Today: a typical rally near month-end where institutional portfolio managers execute buy orders to put cash to work. Indices move up as PMs buy without regard to price--they are forced by their mandates to be essentially fully invested.

We expect choppy trading the next few days, as the current powerful downtrend is offset by normal month-end buying. The internal technicals of the stock market are still negative however, so we expect any upside in the market to dissipate after Monday's (12/3) ISM Index release at 10:00AM. The downtrend may then resume with full force.

JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Anyone considering Cara 100 TGP under $29 ?

BillySundance, thanks for the Buy Alert on CRDN last Saturday.

Adding to UNG as well.

Bill...

A few days ago in one of your summaries, you made the statement...

"let the market come to you"

That was one GREAT piece of advice. So many times I want to abandon my initial bid and just take the stock at the current level. But that statement rang in my head and in a lot of cases an hour or so later it did come to me.

Thanks!

Now the group has
the "Dalli Leisa" and "Budda Bill"

:^)

I closed a couple of short positions today. The market wants to go higher. I'd be encouraged if I were bullish on the market to go long. Being bearish, however, I'll just wait for the buyers to finish then reload.

Well done, whoever went long SSO late yesterday.

Most PM miners are getting creamed again today. Too funny, given they trading at the same place they were when the price of gold and silver were significantly lower. Bill is right ... again.

To Bill's call for XOM to trade in the 70's-been leaning short XOM since it broke it's neckline at 90.3 a few weeks ago. Head and shoulders measurment was 85 which has been met. However, a more likely spot for XOM to trade to is down to the 79 level reached in August. Another way to play XOM involves a pairs trade. A pairs trade can mean many things to many people, but in this case I'm taking a short XOM position against a long CVX position. According to our calculations XOM has a slightly higher beta than CVX (1.25 vs. 1.15) so if both stocks drop XOM should drop more-in theory. For those interested there is a corrlation tracker at www.sectorspdr.com/correlation/index.cfm. This allows you to compare like securities to track their historical correlation. CVX has a .98 correlation to XOM-a very nice pairs opportunity. I've watched this spread over the past year and have noticed the outer parameters seem to be plus or minus 3. With XOM currently 2 dollars above CVX I'm buying CVX, shorting XOM. I will add to the position as it expands to 3, and look to take profits at parity. If CVX at some point trades 2 dollars over XOM I will take the other side of the trade-long XOM against short CVX, again adding to the trade as it approches 3, taking it off when they both trade the same price. Those of us that have CQG (and probably other systems as well) can track the historical relationships of these spreads, note the extremes and maybe fade the edges if fundamentals haven't changed. As a timing filter one might use an RSI going from under 15 to above 30 to initiate longs, and an RSI going from above 90 to under 70 to put on shorts (MACD could work as well). Set up might be a three day high or low. Hope everybody is learning how to trade in this volatile evironment and making some money. Good luck to all.

Bill

"Sell into strength" where you feel uncomfortable holding onto positions. Let a falling market come to you."

I AGREE 100%!

Scaling into FXP here.

That would be Dali Leisa and Buddha Bill.
Krishnamurti would denounce their titles in favor of their message. LOL!

Gotta have some fun scaling into red positions...

2nd or Craig

Any thoughts to re-entering UNG?

Is UNG bouncing off a lower trend line? or reacting to recessionary pressure. Northern U.S. 10 day weather fcst a bit on the cool side. Long w/stop of 38.15

ALOHA !!

FranSix ... Thanks for the reminder on yesterdays posting regarding what junior explorers must do. You pretty much described what every company, even the likes of Citi and CountryWide and FannyMae and Lockheed must do ... "stand on its own two feet". The list of companies that is supported by US government pay checks is just a mind boggling endless list that keeps growing. Take away US Taxpayer support of US companies and what's left? I can tell you ... NOT MUCH! Without the COLD WAR and now the "FOREVER WAR"(War On Terror)the likes of Lockheed, General Dynamics and Northrup would collapse! Add in the domino companies that engage in everything from airport security to US military suppliers like Haliburton. What company isn't in that "loop"? No wonder we need WAR because nobody would be making a profit without it! Imagine the long unemployment lines if we ever pull out of Iraq! There is more that meets the eye than just simply "standing on ones own two feet"! In a socialist system with fiat money that is near impossible unless you have some severe government connections! That's where the "money spigot" is ...

The US Taxpayer has so much power it is unbelievable! That is the US government's true nightmare scenario to have the US Taxpayer wake up and realize its the Boston Tea Party all over again! Only one politician running for President in 2008 is calling for a "TEA PARTY"!

RON PAUL ... Join the REVOLUTION baby!!!

I'm dying laughing...watching bloomberg with Doug Daschle (sp?).

He suggested that wall street bonuses get paid in SIV paper and let's see how long it takes for these brainiacs to regain their value. (paraphrased colorfully by me).

Of course that's an invitation for them to rip off a whole other class of investors by selling them this junk.

Kaimu, you are a genius!

TEA PARTIES....that's it!

THAT would be great publicity. We should all organize Tea Parties to support Ron Paul.

Could there be a clearer message?

My only worry is the "Jay Walkers" that we would have to explain the fricking Tea Party to.
Sigh...

Ron Paul reminds me of Wilburforce: intrepid in the face of near universal opposition. First Wilburforce swam against the tide; gradually he turned the tide; finally he rode the tide to one of mankind's noblest achievements.
The Tea Parties could help RP begin to turn the tide. Go Kaimu! Would you serve Tea, or Hawaian Punch

Article...Corporate Credit problems may be larger than Subprime..via John Maudlin's "Outside The Box.

http://tinyurl.com/3d9s5b

wavesmash - back in to ETFC at 4.50. I think the news regarding Dubai and C will keep ETFC playable.

testing

ALOHA !!

Jaketh ... NO ... MANGO WINE ... bro!!! My own special brew fermented for a week in 5gal buckets!

Craig ... I am no genius ... just following in the foot steps of our Founding Fathers! We definitely need a Constitutional amendment separating State and Bank! I say let 'em all die on the SIV vine!

Welcome back Sharkie!

richard russell's take here is interesting if anythig from a technical standpoint

--------------------

Gold: Uncharted Territory
Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
Nov 27, 2007

Extracted from the Nov 26, 2007 edition of Richard's Remarks

November 26, 2007 -- The gold price in Australian dollars has hit an all-time high, closing the week at more than $940 per ounce.

Gold is now outperforming all fiat currencies. Or let me put it the correct way, all fiat currencies are losing value against gold. This is also true of most stocks and the Dow. As of Friday, one share of the Dow would buy only 15.74 ounces of gold. The Dow, in terms of gold, has been in a bear market since July 1999, at which time one share of the Dow would buy 44 ounces of gold.

The nonsense and misinformation about gold never ends. We hear a lot about the "great 1980 rise in gold to a record price of 850" Actually, what happened is this. Gold closed above 800 in 1980 on only TWO DAYS. Gold closed on January 18, 1980 at a price of 830.00. Gold closed on January 21, 1980 at price of 850. The next day gold closed at 737.50. Gold in 1980 never closed above 800 again! The price of gold at the end of January 1980 was $659.

Gold has never in all history ended a month at 800 of above. This Friday will mark the end of the month of November. If Friday's gold is at 800 or above, it will be the FIRST TIME GOLD HAS EVER CLOSED A MONTH IN THE 800s!

Furthermore, in 1980 gold was in a parabolic rise. It was literally blowing its top when it surged to its peak at 850. Not so today. Gold has been rising methodically and rather carefully here in 2007. The big third phase speculative rise lies ahead.

I thought Friday's rise in gold of 26 dollars showed some urgency. We haven't seen a 26 dollar rise in gold in quite a while. Interestingly, that 26 dollar rise drew little attention from the media. Nobody appeared to have noticed it. Furthermore, nobody seems to realize that gold is now closing day after day over 800. SOMETHING IT HAS NEVER DONE BEFORE. Let me put it this way, dear subscribers -- the gold action is becoming more interesting as the weeks and months go by.

Couldn't resists........ UNG @38.28

Now everyone turn up your thermostat for Isaiah.

Hats off to the gent who made the call on CRDN yesterday? Anybody want to take credit??

Dear Bill, Mike, 2nd Ave, Leisa, Kaimu and Everyone,

It's quite bizarre but I'm at the Westport library posting. Apparently my Apple no longer posts to this site. It basically works otherwise, but the deprivation I've been feeling not being able to post has been painful.

I am doing fine personally but I had a very frustrating experience. I bought a big position in GSS, saw it get very profitable and watched as it all slipped away. Very unlike me. Prior to that I made a boatload on GRS riding it from 10 to 11.83 but then I kept trying to catch it as it fell, no good. And I am amazed that the stock is now trading in the 6's.

I definitely think being a part of this community helped my trading, and I still read all the posts a couple times a day, but not being able to post is a hinderance; I think posting helped clarify my thoughts.

Anyway, It really seems to me that as of yesterday the writing was really on the wall for U.S. equities, and I am not interpreting the Citi Abu Dabi thing the way the market is. I fail to see how this materially impacts the condition of the financials and the rest of our market. So I called one of my HBB friends, someone more used to swimming comfortably in HB and B's BS and his take was that maybe there's more liquidity out there looking to snap up our assets "on the cheap". Maybe. But I fail to see cause for celebration in this.
finally, I just want you to know that, as much as I love anyone other than my mom and my cat, I love you guys and girls and know that even though I can't post on a regular basis, I am out here, circling in these waters, reading all that Bill and you guys write. And it does seem that, even in my absence, the quality of posts continues to increase.

Peace and happiness to you all,

Your friend, Chris

thanks Jogyp...I forgot to mention you! But you're in my heart too.

I mentioned CRDN yesterday. I'd been following and then ran RSI's on it this weekend which showed the Buy Alert. Congrats to anyone who caught this today!

riteside - re risk levels

Don't know Tharp, but Elder recommends max 2% at risk in a trading position, max 6% at risk in a total trading portfolio.

Elder defines risk as price - stop. (Holders of NG - which opened down 33% yesterday, and closed down 50% - would take little comfort from this definition!)

In fact, Elder prefers positions with much less than 2% "risk" from price down to stop. And he acknowledges that stocks can gap down well below any stop.

Good luck! It's a jungle out there .....

That's it... time for "Yogi the Bear" to come on stage and do his dance.

I have the following positions for today possibly for tomorrow

UNG / FXP / DXD / QID

Only the FXP play do I have a slight concern with.

You know what's funny. All the talking heads are attributing today's rally to Citigroup getting the bailout from Abu Dhabi but the only one not rallying is Citigroup. So, how can we attribute the rally to them? Maybe everyone is excited that there are still people willing to invest in America. It seems like if it was such good news for Citi though their stock would reflect that. This market gets more confusing by the day. Good luck to the longs and the shorts. With volatility like this both sides will win.

NYU Grad,
I'm still with you on H&R Block. The water smells funny over there. They're delaying earnings hoping for a golden parachute. We'll find out how connected they are. Even if this Super SIV fund is launched I think there will be way too many companies wanting to throw way too many SIV's in there to work for anyone but the most connected companies.

Rob.

2ND,
LOOKS LIKE YOU'LL GET fxp @ 80 BELOW. I'll hold overnight and place sell order for premarket am. Good Luck!

Isaiah, I doubt if "Yogi the Bear" will come today?
The way market is moving today it looks like we could have 400+ day for the dow.
JMHO.

Shark_attack:

"I think posting helped clarify my thoughts."

That is what I am finding plus if my thoughts are not clear someone on the blog helps to clarify them for me.

Don't forget....all those bank and investment house CEO's got personal invites to meet with Ben.

When they talk you need to factor that into what you hear. They know what is going to happen.
They are the ones kicking the can.
Ben is funding it...with our money.

Quick rant, have a bunch of accounts with RBC Direct Investing, getting screwed with huge trading commissions, and today I've had to resubmit trade orders 6 or 7 times with varying error message coming back. And the site is slow on a what seems to be a slow market day. Not inspiring confidence...

Not to mentioned I tried for 6 months to get two RESP's merged into a family RESP, having filled and sent them all the forms twice, with no success. Now in the process of moving accounts to Questrade, and while I know this is Bill's baby, sadly the experience has left much to be desired as well.

Telecoms and banks: high switching costs (financial/emotional/temporal) = bad service

While CNBC is universally maligned (even I occasionally bash them), I always watch Squawkbox. I like Becky, Carl and Joe and they put the most terrific guest hosts on.

Wilbur Ross was on today. I wish that he would adopt me. He said something very profound--that is that liquidity has not disappeared, it just shows up in different places.

I'm still of the mind that that foreign investors will find our market attractive with the dollar being so beat up. Money, like water, seeks equilibrium. With our markets so beat up, the risk of investing here gets less every day.

A DOW close at 13080 today and a big engulfing white candle? Watch USD/YEN for confirmation.
Dollar weakness against Yen and Euro about to end?
Gold going down as a result?
A lot of ? but technically it is possible IMO.

JogyP

You may be right... it is full steam ahead...

If it does drop at all it will be during the last hour. IMHO

I noticed that 25 dollar day and posted about it. Russell needs to keep up with my comments here!

If you looked at it as a 24 hour period, which gold is now, instead of a COMEX session, it was actually a great deal larger than a 25 dollar day.

The vol is crazy and getting larger, as Sinclair predicted. We just had a 20 dollar drop in 8 hours and no one is even blinking.

I still am waiting for that 100 dollar day. It will happen. Probably to the downside first, but it will swing like that eventually, I think.

Jack,

Thanks for clarifying

proudPapa, I know the feeling. I was experiencing the same sell order issues today with RBC (they are ok now). My comissions are flat 9.95 though, soon to be 7.95, which is ok. What I don't like about them is that you cannot hold some etfs in RRSPs, inverse etfs, and naked puts. I also have other accounts from another broker that I wanted to transfer and combine into QTrade, but they won't pay for transfer fees on one of them, so not happy either. I am looking for a solution too.

shark- good to hear from you! thought maybe there was a message embedded in your "parked in yosemite with a bear jumping up and down on my hood" post we needed to decipher to explain your absence...welcome back!

Shark_attack:

"...and I am not interpreting the Citi Abu Dabi thing the way the market is... So I called one of my HBB friends...and his take was that maybe there's more liquidity out there looking to snap up our assets "on the cheap". Maybe. But I fail to see cause for celebration in this."

I have had 3 questions running through my mind about the economies, markets, debt etc.

How much money is on the sidelines?

Who has it?

What are they going to do with it?

In the last few days I have had investments either made or announced relative to a number of Canadian companies in my portfolio. What I find significant is where they are coming from. One is a private placement from the U.K. and the other from India. Now today Middle East money to Citi..

Maybe, some of my questions are starting to be answered.

Someone once told me that if you see a good deal you better snap it up.

Time to celebrate?.... I do not know but I do know that once momentum changes it can it can gather speed in a hurry.

Sundance,
Wish I could say I bought CRDN (I guess you can "say" anything here), but I just put it on the watch list to enjoy vicariously your profits.

A passing thought.....

Last night on Mad Money...a woman called in and said.

"Crammer I know you have my back, I have 2400 shares of Bank America and I'm hurting. What should I do?"

Crammer did his usual 1-2 side step and then hit the sell button and moved on to the next caller.

I felt really bad for the woman because at first her voice had some anger in it, then at the end it started to crack a little. I think she was hoping he was going to say it's ok....hold on to it.. it will go back up.

It was definitely NOT.... "Must See TV"

Sharkie...

MISS your comments my friend...Glad to hear you are still lurking...

Maybe the community can get you setup wireless so you can hang out with Bill at STARBUCKS...

LONG GSS my friend...feel your pain

Hi Bill

I am wondering if the weakness in TLT signals the beginning of a change in the 30 year bond market or just end of month pullback? TLT looks oversold here.

SiO2,

I occasionally get into the 9.95/trade nirvana, like now since i've been clearing my deck for the last month. But with multiple accounts, and the 'frequent trader' status applicable only to one account at a time (or some obscure combinatatory rules), I still have accounts where I take the $28.95 raping.

It's disgusting that a round-trip trade is almost $60, they make $billions/quarter in profit, and they're platform is totally subpar (very restricted options trading, no charting tools, no after-hours trading, no trailing stops, etc).

If the Qtrade transfer were going smoother, i'd be in process of transfering all accounts already. Too bad it's not...

Golfer...

I don't think you have seen the discounts yet my friend...

I think CITI could see sub 10.00 levels before it is done...Now that will be a fire sale...

How deep does the rat hole go? Abu is a band aid...little more time for DA Boyz to liquidate positions...

In addition to everything else Leisa does well, I have it on good authority that she also does windows.

Wow...

I have been watching the river (about 1 1/2 miles wide) begin to freeze over today. It had started slowly outward from the shore to about 200 feet and just within the last 10 minutes it has iced up to about 3/4 of a mile off shore.

I guess that's how fast things can change when some critical point is reached.

There has been more than one Prince screwed by C.
What's one more?

proudPapa,

You're not the only one with broker website problems today. Mine has been down for about two hours now.

This is the final straw. Does anyone in here use ScotTrade? If so, can you recommend it?

Regards

Bill,

Ouch, very sorry!! For some reason, I always thought the two were one and the same .

need to brush up on my due diligence...

Bull Hunter:

I have used Scottrade for several years and am very pleased with them. Do you have a local office? Though not necessary, I like the convenience of talking to people I have gotten to know and who are very helpful

Bull Hunter

I have been using it from day one! All trades whether 100 or 5000 all $7... also they will pay the tranfer cost [up to $100] of your stocks from your current broker. Also another $100 for your IRA.

If you have $25,000 or more you get to use their Scottrade Elite set up and if you make 10 trades or more a month you get their Level II service fro free.

To date I have had not one problem logging on or making a trade.

I think Craig also uses Scottrade.

Anyone interested in ETRADE?

Anyone....

Anyone......

Anyone.....?

There I go again left holding the bag...

I don't know folks....

almost 2 o'clock and Yogi maybe in the wings getting ready for a 3PM performance.

things are dropping quick!

BH, I use Scottrade Elite and it works pretty good. Occasionally a small glitch but nothing serious, and you can always fallback on the Scottrader java format should elite have issues.

I recently discovered that the delays I was experiencing were due to the security software I was using (Norton) and the firewall was slowing me down up to three minutes. Scottrade gives you a free one year/three computer McAfee subscription that completely solves the problem.

$7 in and $7 plus a few pennies out. IBKR is less expensive if you trade frequently or want direct CDN access.
CDN equities you have to call your local Scotrade office to place the trade, $20 fee in and out.
The local staff indicated Scottrade is talking of adding direct trading on the TSX and charting.
The charting is excellent in the elite program ($25,000 min.).

If you trade a certain amount you get free level one and level II quotes.

Feels like some black boxes kicked in out there. Green indices headed back to red?

Re: Scottrade...

No technical problems, I had a couple lags here and there that seemed to happen around market closing. It's just annoying when you don't have the 25K to avoid the high-frequency trading penalties, free ride nastygrams, etc.

I'm glad septic duty is over, I get to watch today.

Now come to papa little ultras....

NOT.V on the move

ronbon, Isaiah, Craig,

Thanks for your responses.

I do have a local office, or should I say as local as living in Podunk can allow.

I like the idea of speaking to people, face-to-face if I have a problem.

Regards

a great way to slice up different topics in the future would be an entire section devoted to trading platforms, including specific brands and issues w/ them,

Thanks, Fatty Arubuckle. Could you explain the high-frequency trading penalties, free ride nastygrams etc.?

Regards

FattyArubuckle

Do you need $25,000 to have a margin account?
Those "free ride nastygrams" occur when you have a cash account.

I have a horror story because that. It cost me thousands to learn that leson. If you free ride...look out...you will get an email in right away and a phone call from Scottrade in minutes.

Trust me I know.... been there done that.

2nd ave....with all the negativity on the miners...you still knew to go to not.v...and it has lit a fire....bill's news alert helped...fido's wathclist alerted me too...getting to like it's bells and whistles.

re fidelity as a platform, it still has its problems. I got locked out and had to re load an older version until the new "patch" comes out.

Bill,

You have said a number of times that the mining costs are skyrocketing. Is it mainly because of the rising oil prices? If so, then will the mining costs come down significantly if the oil price comes down to $75/barrel after the economic slowdown becomes apparent?

On a related note, do you think that UXG keeps falling because people are realizing now that they will have to deal with much higher mining costs, or is the stock falling now simply because it has been falling, and so everyone is disappointed with it? If it is the latter, then I think it represents a very good long-term value based on the Warren Buffet's concept of "being greedy when others are fearful and being fearful when others are greedy."

Thanks...

It just occurred to me that since HB&B cannot offload and distribute to the U.S. investor this time around he appears to of found a greater fool than even joe six pack.

Welcome Middle East and the Sovereign Wealth funds of Asia! We surely hope you enjoy your stay.

If they didn't learn from Blackstone they won't from Citi either. I expect these SWF to take try and do what the Fed cannot do. Should be a fun couple of months..I'll bring the popcorn.

Scottrade Elite trick of the week:

Say you put in a limit order to buy ABC for $15 and it starts to rise or fall and your order is in. You can modify the same order, even after a partial fill/sell to take advantage, all for the same $7.

LOL! I got NOT this AM @4.96 USD.
15 min delay $5.57 CDN!!!

Bill was right on his first NOT announcement.

jasper- does that mean you're in?

Bill:

"...Small amounts of day trading can teach old-timers how to better trade their much larger long-term positions."

I may agree with the concept but I still am leery of competing with traders with multi monitors and access to Level 1,11 (how many are there) Quotes and whatever else they have access to that I don't have.

I play golf pretty well but I am not foolish enough to go head to head with Tiger Woods for any amount of money at stake.

I do enjoy and learn from the "daytrader chat" as long as it has substance to it.

ALOHA !!

GOLDMINCO

GCP.V GDMCF.PK(US)

This is a "strange" opportunity and one I plan to figure out in Jan 2008 when I meet with the execs in Perth, West Australia.

- Owned by Straits Resources over 51%(see Canadian Insider).
- Also Anglo Pacific owns over 13%.
- Total 64% owned by mid size mining companies.
- HQ based in Perth, West Australia and all properties located in Australia at the Lachlan Fold Belt(LFB) NSW(east coast).
- HQ is located at Straits Resources offices and CEO is also geologist employee of Straits Resources.
- Only trades in Canada and US symbol, not traded in Australia????????
- Has some 1.4mil AU ounces recorded 43-101 for Discovery Ridge Dam properties.
- Discovery Ridge Brown Creek property in feasability study and financed by Straits Resources.
- Just came out with new drill results for Temora property on LFB, Monza. Assay show excellent returns for "first hole"... 1.42% to 8.9% copper and 1 to 6.5g/t AU over 115m, shallow depth at 65m.
- Same type of deposit as Northern Dynasty's Pebble poryphry only Pebble has more tonnage, but GCP has better grades(so far). Last drill results for Pebble had a .81%Cu compared to GCP 1.42%Cu almost double and not Cu equivalent.
- Based on feasability results GCP will be producing before Pebble in 2010. Pebble production scheduled for 2015.
- On the day the drill results were released about ten days ago volume was 3mil and a 55% share price increase.
- Undervalued at under $10 per resource ounce.

So what can you buy this company for now? What about $0.095CDN? Today it is now up 12% on 100k+ volume ... At that price it is worth a look!

I own and I am long ... DYODD please ...

GCP link: http://tinyurl.com/39zeru

Out of partial QID @ 41.31

Bull Hunter & Isaiah:

As I haven't tested the boundaries of trading via Scottrade yet, I could be wrong here... It appears that you need:
a.) 2,000 min for a margin account.
b.) 25,000 min for a "pattern day trader" account.

In addition to either a.) or b.):
c.) "available cash equal to at least 50% of the amount purchased"

https://www.scottrade.com/formscenter/MarginAgreement.htm

"pattern day trader" = 4 round trips in a 5 day period.

I haven't gotten around to applying for the margin acct. yet, so the free ride notices are more of a testament to my own laziness, rather than Scottrade's features... I probably shouldn't have mentioned it. Although I believe it was discussed here recently and a general consensus was that brokerage settlement durations were needlessly long.

And I shouldn't have said high-freq. trading "penalties," as I'm unsure what happens if you try the 4 buys & sells within 5 days while being under 25K. I would assume that there is a penalty.

Sorry for any misunderstanding. They've provided pretty excellent & consistent service so far. Haven't been to the physical locations yet since I haven't had any problems.

Sorry to hear about your free ride incident, Isaiah. Glad to see things are straightened out.

we saw the 2pm drop and a bit of a recovery, trying to claw back up. I think the 3pm move will be a bit early... say 2:49. So, we'll either end red, or go green in a big way. My gut says red.

NOT.V- followed craig out at 5.58...

Hey Basket, looks like some interest in ETFC showed up...

Ah, forgot the "l" @ the end of that link I quoted. Should be "html" not "htm" Sorry...

2nd, yes , 4.85 limit price filled a few hrs later, only a speculative position of about .6%. Is this one for you "long term"....more than one day,so to speak. By chance did you see my inquiry about how you are using fido with the canadian stocks?

oh I see...u're already out!

I told you Yogi was in the wings warming up!

Now it's the bear's turn to dance..

Those who hold DXD or QID or SDS etc...

Anyone holding till tomorrow or is everyone going flat at the end of the day?

ALOHA !!

LYSANDER MINERALS

LYM.V LYMCF.PK(US)

By Dec 7th the new spin-off will be in place. If you own one share of LYM you will get 9/10 of a share of the new company Lorraine Copper. This company and its properties are highly sought after by Teck Cominco who considers LYM its #1 North American exploration property and Teck has put its money where its pick is!

LYM 100% owned Osilinka property has drill results due early December.

All properties located in the Quesnel Trough as I have posted this info before.

I am told the last day to buy in before the spin-off would be Monday, Dec 3rd.

LYM current ask is $0.32CDN ...

I own 200,000 shares with a basis of $0.11CDN that I have been accumulating since 2005 ... DYODD please ...

LYM link: http://tinyurl.com/yvzz5s

Budda Bill

does it again.... that's why I been buying QID & DXD & FXP all day !

Ka-ching!

Apparently CNBC just reported that Citi will not be taking its SIV's back on the balance sheet.

Are those of you having problems with the speed of your connections today Canadians?

There may be problems with the major trunk lines and ISPs...

2nd
what's going on in your mind right now? You holding QID or are you dumping? Don;t leave me at the station holding my luggage [QID]

I offed FXP/QID/NOT.
Still holding DXD

hotshot- i only have a minor (20% of usual) position in QID right now...so i'm holding, and hoping to get a chance to add at the close today or tomorrow...same with FXP...

sold the DUG earlier today (too early, of course)...

what's on my mind? want to be loaded to the gills with ultrashorts when they really take it down, that's all :) seriously, QID at 41.54? sometimes price history helps, as i recall trading it in the fifties earlier in the year, and anything in the fifties sounds good- in fact, i liked the music in the sixties even more...FXP in three digits? all timing, i guess...and mine hasn't been working that well lately...good luck..

Craig

you expect a late day rally?

Bill

thanks for those encouraging words on UXG...

For the second time in two days Nasdaq hit 200 day resistance. I think we'll test the August lows on the Nasdaq before the bulls can run again. But maybe that's what they want us to think. That's why I have to be on both sides. Short HRB, RIMM. Long C and thinking about long QID and short UBS. A person could get conflicted trading like this for too long. On one hand I want the market to go up. On the other I'd like it to go down. As long as it doesn't stay still I should be good.

Rob.

I don't know so I took profits at the best I could.

I bought at today's peak so my basis on ultras was good. Extremes of fear and giddiness.
I was afraid buying into the rally. I was happier to sell into weakness.

The final hour looks like it could go either way to me. I'm hoping for a sell off, but that and a $5 will get me a latte.

Craig

If it sells off I will buy you latte for a year

the push just arrived

LOL! I traded in and out of NOT in my ROTH today and I'm thinking there is no free ride regulation for CDN equities or something.

Not a word from Scottrade which shows me with zero cleared funds for trading.

I sure have added a lot of $ to my IRA lately.
Now to get that gold drop....

Just punched in a stop on NOT @ 5.52...Thanks BC

Where would I find complimentary Institute Of Supply Management charts?

Where would I find complimentary Institute Of Supply Management charts?

Let's see, where am I going to get latte's? LOL!

Bill you are on the money

this DJIA=12850 is the line in the sand!

I believe it's fizzled

Here is an excerpt from today’s Gartman with respect to gold shares vs. GLD. It will probably be unpopular here and certainly goes against Kaimu’s views. However, IMO, without knowing the other side of something you are like a bird trying to fly with one wing. Knowing both sides’ views gives one an opportunity to pick the best path for their situation.

Yesterday was a perfect example of why it is that we do
not trade gold shares here at The Gartman Letter when
we are bullish of gold; rather, we trade gold futures or we
trade the Gold ETF (GLD). If we are bullish of gold, we
wish to have exposure to gold, not to mining expertise,
nor mining risks, nor hedging problems, nor any of the
exogenous circumstances that surround gold mining.
Yesterday, NovaGold Resources fell more than 50%
when it was announced that the company was stopping
work on the development of its Galore Creek project in
British Columbia. Further, the company said that its
costs for developing the mine were likely to more than
double to about $5 billion compared to the $2.2 billion
previously estimated. Worse still, the company's
management said that the project, which was due to start
producing in '12 would likely not begin producing until
much later that year or early '13. So, we have a
company whose production costs have more than
doubled and the products is delayed. Investor's fled; they
are likely to remain "fled" for a very long while yet. Those
who have not yet learned that GLD is the better trade
learned so yesterday... we hope.

I feel for those who were hit minus 50% on NG. No fun!

This is like watching a John Wayne fist-fight....more popcorn please, Honey!

If it goes back to the line in the sand...I'm dumping and going flat into tomorrow.

Bill,

I trust you on the HB&B's.

I used my "learning money" not "play money" in the 1999 to 2002 period?

I learned that it was foolish for ME to daytrade i.e. minute charts..5 minute charts..green candles...red candles, with what I had to work with.

Did I learn anything about when to buy and when to sell? Yes I did...did I have some winners and some losers? Yes I did. Did I learn that I am not a daytrader? Yes I did.

So today, I do not daytrade per se.

However, there are days I have to pay a little more attention to those stocks that might have reached my mental stops and I may have to sell them before the close or whatever.

I $learned$ not to use STOP LOSS orders because I believe there are those out there that can see all these STOP LOSSES and manipulate the process to trigger a downdraft and then voila the price shoots fight back up and I am left without a bag to hold.

But, I sure do enjoy watching and listening and learning from the daily action.

I have to do what I think I do best.

Uh-Oh...looks like the bulls pushed the bears over to the berries and pick-a-nik basket and they got a bit distracted.

I have a question for the community, actually three.

If I lose 25% how much do I need to make to get even?

If I lose 35% how much do I need to make to get even?

And the easy one, if I lose 50% how much do I need to make to get even?

Knowing this is crucial to success as a trader.

looks like John Wayne is still standing. He's trying to raise the DJIA 13000 flag.

I-man,

I got out too early yesterday....got back in just right today, so I'm going all the way into December with QID and FXP....unless we go deep red and I can't keep my finger off the trigger.

FXP: nibbled at 81.61

2nd,
Watch DUG coming to you.

Jaketh

I had several chances to sell big and I didn't. Now I am all red...

"Ooooooooo the humanity!"

I could of sold.. bought back in... and sold again.

STUPID!

Moab...everybody knows the Duke is a Bear.

except me I guess, Jaketh.

taking C off for now...if it can't get past 30 on a rally->better things to do...

GOLFER,
FWIW, me too, i have looked in the mirror and know that i'm not a day trader, among other things. But, I do like stops. At fidelity, i'm told that a trailing stop is not "seen".

Moab,
Only fair that the winner gets to claim the Duke.

Craig, is nibbled more than a peck but less than a nip?

from 20% to 30% on all positions into the close (no take and no guts)->QID/FXP/UNG...

Picked up some PDA this morning @ 41.75. Just oversold and the carry trade currencies were weakening. Prefer swing trades, but in this environment, have to be flexible and “nimble” as Bill says.

Wanted to go to the gym for a workout, but didn’t feel comfortable leaving it there in this market. Other positions fine, no worry. Rode it down and then back.

It’s not a high volume stock, so didn’t feel comfortable with a stop limit. It could blow right past it and not return. Sold the noon hour bounce @ 42.88 and went to the gym.

Had a nice workout and returned for the last hour. Catching up.

SBUX showing a little life going into the close.

In truth it's 50 shares.
nibbled again at 80.70

Jasper:

That may well be but I still don't trust them.

Fool me once,shame on you...fool me twice, shame on me.

I was in mutual funds and I was told that the price that you bought and sold at based on the end of the day' price....remember that one. NO ONE could buy at any other price.

Listen to BILL about the HB&Bs etc.

Telstar, had to get out my calculus book, but:

25% 33%
35% 54%
50% 100%

or if you treat your %'s as fractions, then:

gain = 1/(1-Loss) - 1

MOAB....The Duke is a Bull, The Duke is a Bull, The Duke is a Bull.........

BobbyV

You can use Briefing.com's economic calendar

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

Telestar3d,

Some fun in excel give us the reasons why you should protect capital...

Loss % gain to Even
5% 5.3%
10% 11.1%
15% 17.6%
20% 25.0%
25% 33.3%
30% 42.9%
35% 53.8%
40% 66.7%
45% 81.8%
50% 100.0%
55% 122.2%
60% 150.0%
65% 185.7%
70% 233.3%
75% 300.0%
80% 400.0%
85% 566.7%
90% 900.0%
95% 1900.0%

Anyone in on the HBB conference call that ignited the buying panic? LOL.

I wonder what tomorrow brings.

Jaketh,
Seems only right that the Duke is a Bull.

Another wild finish. Dang near sold ETFC at the end but held off. I think it's worth 5 and change in the morning.

Commodity ETFs and ETNs:

http://tinyurl.com/2skhoa

Even with all the fanfare and pumping of how happy everyone was that Citi got extra funding, the Nasdaq still closed below it's 200 day line at 2585. Oh that's right the Citi shareholders aren't partying either since Citi ended down on a day that it supposedly caused the rally.

Does that seem a little funny to anyone else?
Shouldn't Citi's stock have went up at least 5% today?

That's why I think the rally was a trap to make us suckers throw our 401K money back in and take on long positions. It may continue into tomorrow morning but I'm betting on a red close tomorrow. Good luck everyone.

Rob.

Karin,

Thank You for the effort. I pasted that in my KEEP book.

More Commodity ETNs:

http://tinyurl.com/398w6b

The downside of ETNs is that you rely on the underwriting bank to stay solvent.

The Rogers commodity ETNs are backed by the Swedish Export Corp, a quasi-governmental bank from Sweden with an Aa1/AA+ credit rating.

http://tinyurl.com/2wod4q

As all have been saying gotta put more lipstick on the pig so the numbers look good at the end of the month...

It's other peoples money anyway...BUY BUY BUY

golfer,
I've had similar experiences and bouts of strong mistrust. That's why I took my 401k to a brokerage firm..so I could have more control and choice. Restrictions were growing on 401kmutual funds while others were still enjoying none plus the front loading issues. But, I can tell you that from my experience trailing stops have been THE safety net, and I know from direct contact with another using the same methodology with ETFs at the same brokerage that he has done extremely well. Trailing stops are different from other stops at Fidelity. A valuable tool in my opinion and I just assume that I'm still picking up the crumbs.

For most of us stops and trailing stops are not market orders visible to anyone other than our brokerage.
When the price triggers a stop it opens a market order. Then it is visible until it executes.

GLD=Trading
Shares=Leverage+Risk
Bullion=Safety
Futures=(Leverage+Risk)^2+LossOfSleep

It's pretty simple.

;-)

(These seem like very good times to be tading GLD, long and short and back again. Less so shares given cost problems and increased uncertainty. Futures only if you are very well capitalized in your account, disciplined, and prepared to take losses on your stops. Bullion on all dips for safety. Safety, long term, is bullion. Safety is NOT treasuries. And if we hit the 50 DMA on the weekly charts of &GOLD, load up the truck with all of the above.)

Another example of HB&B manipulating a bankrupt entity.

Freddie Mac Declares Quarterly Dividends

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071127/netu115.html?.v=23

Rob- agree with your take on the bull trap...of course, traps are set both ways->this morning was a bear trap...

still waiting for the Naz to drop...

ALOHA !!

Telestar3d ... tell Gartman it all works great up until supply runs out. What happens when all CBs turn into buyers? Where in the long line will GLD be? Does Gartman ever publish his fantastic returns? Forward that to us someday. I hear he has a knack of missing the boat and even the pier!

Some of my profits on junior explorers have run past 3500% back before the ETFs, so yes, money gets diverted to GLD and other Wall Street paper hype. Yet I am up on some of my holdings by as much as 400%. What is GLD up to since inception? Those days of confidence in pure HB&B paper are numbered ... Don't be fooled the GLD and SLV ETFs have "real" risk and I defy you to tell me where your hard earned money went to once you buy into GLD! Where is it? Is it in gold? In what bank? In what country? Is it part of general assets? Who's custody is it in right now? Nobody here can tell me where your money is other than "Its in GLD!" Its in the abyss of OPM World(Other People's Money) ... GLD has "real" risk ... Gartman likes to skip that part ... His GLD paper is just as flimsy as a US Peso!

Special Update: Mr. T Gold Indicator Forms Rare Double Sell Signal

In a stunning development, the Minyanville Mr. T Gold Indicator has formed a rare double sell signal on the chart.

http://tinyurl.com/2woyse

Craig and others:
"For most of us stops and trailing stops are not market orders visible to anyone other than our brokerage."

A fundamental question is this: do you know for a fact if your brokerage acts exclusively as a broker on your behalf or does it act as a principal sometimes? Every person trading in the markets needs to ask their broker this question. If they act as principal (sometimes), then their ability to see your stop order is as good as giving them the PIN number to your bank account (IMO). Most brokers I've asked this do in fact act as principals.

Gold to XAU getting back into Markm's buy range for gold stocks (5:1) and yesterday, ratio or Oil ($WTIC) to XLE hit it's highest level in 2 years.

Means either we should see some commodity price weakness or commodity stock strength. Even if commodities drop, stocks should not drop as quickly to bring stock prices back into line with commodities.

2nd,
I know. Those traps are treacherous. I still get caught in them too often. I have to train myself to walk away from the computer whenever I'm tempted to panic sell or panic buy. Giving in to those emotions has cost me alot of gains. It makes me madder when I see that I would have been right if I didn't panic. I am getting better though.

Bill,
you're right on. I definitely saw both those spikes in the indexes and was very suspicious. It's one of the reason I bought some puts on RIMM and UBS towards the end. I'm only doing March expirations now so I have more time and am not tempted to panic and sell early.

Rob.

MoneyGenie,
Thanks for the tip. I had been waiting for a signal to dump a large bar. The Monex guy hadn't heard of that particular indicator, but they get a commission anyway.

May explain some action today...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7FTeoU0y6eI&refer=home

The .spx has traded differently from .dji. The former was beat back 4x today from the level where yesterday it went south at 2:45pm. The .dji today charged 50 pts ahead of that breakdown.

GLD is showing negative divergence to price. That helps keep me patient. These divergences may take a while to work out.

BB...thx for the reminder.

"Mr. T Gold Indicator"

mg- now you're talking->no better indicator than one that can out-BS what we have to put up with right now...notice your decision to sell FXP last night turned from regrettable to brilliant

bb- thanks for pointing out the GLD:XAU...

From the Calgary Herald.

Premier says royalty scheme could change
20-per-cent increase is not negotiable, but how it is enacted is, Stelmach says
Jason Markusoff, edmontonjournal.com
Published: Tuesday, November 27, 2007
EDMONTON - Alberta is open to changing parts of its new royalty framework before it is enshrined in legislation next year, Premier Ed Stelmach said today.

He told a luncheon crowd at the Edmonton Petroleum Club that the Energy Department and major energy-sector groups will soon begin consultations to determine exactly how the government enacts a new royalty program designed to collect $1.4 billion more per year from companies by 2010.

"If there are unintended consequences as a result of the framework next year, then we need to discuss them and address them," Stelmach said in his speech today.

Email to a friend

Printer friendly
Font:****"We heard the concerns being raised by small producers, for example, and I want to assure industry and those Albertans who work for these companies that we'll listen closely to your concerns."

His comments came hours after Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. announced it will cut natural gas drilling by 44 per cent next year, a change it blamed on the proposed royalty hikes that take effect in 2009. Smaller oil and gas firms have also said the changes will worsen a winter drilling season which is already economically grim because of low natural gas prices and inflated production costs.

In question period, NDP Leader Brian Mason charged that Albertans had already been sold out by the weak royalty changes proposed. He expressed concerns that Stelmach will "give away even more of our wealth."

The premier replied that his government is committed to the framework's approach.

"There's no part of it that's negotiable, in terms of the 20 per cent (increase)."

So let's see, solvency in question, dividend cut in half....if there's anything left by the open it should be a good short.

craig- re QID

with the exception of CSCO, no longer "oversold:"

http://tinyurl.com/3yvzkg

moneygenie,

That gold indicator is bound to be as valuable to traders as the RSI and MACD -- hands down. I love it.

For Canadians:

I finally found two online brokers that accept RSP accounts and offer stop-loss trades on options:

* MF Global
* TradeFreedom

Both also offer forex.

Scottrade Accounts holders... [or tax experts]

Tax Question about "Wash Sale Adjustment"
Looks like I have a few of these on my Scottrade "Realized Sale Activity Summary" for 2007.

I understand why they occur, but here is where I get confused. Bill recommended a book by Ann C Logue, MBA called "Day Trading For Dummies", on page 163 she address this subject.

"Under the wash-sale-rule, you cannot deduct a loss if you have both a gain and a loss in the same security within a 61-day period [calendar days]. However, you can add the disallowed loss to the basis of your security." She goes on to give an example which is very easy to understand.

Now what Scottrade does is puts a positive value, equal to your loss in the gains column. This in turn cancels out the loss. They never add the lost to your basis. So the money you lost just vanishes.

My question is this [in regards to adding it to your basis]: Do you have to make this adjustment yourself and won't this conflict with the IRS form they send you for the tax year?

Bill Cara at November 27, 2007 8:27 PM
"sadleb,
Please explain, or should I be asking if, next, you'll be directing us to sunspots?"

Well of course Bill, doesn't every trader follow the Bradley calendar? No just kidding, but remembered reading about it when you mentioned sunspots.

Just googled the site and here part of the intro for today.

"Merriman says Pluto is ruler of debt and fear of the worst, so this recent conjunction of Jupiter and Pluto is behind the panic associated with the subprime credit crisis."

Complete with charts, predictions, cycles etc and all the proof "some" people need.

http://www.bradleymodel.com/

I take it with a chunk of salt myself.

After hours slightly off topic

Bill Cara at November 27, 2007 8:27 PM
"sadleb,
Please explain, or should I be asking if, next, you'll be directing us to sunspots?"

Well doesn't every trader follow the Bradley calendar? No just kidding, but I remembered reading about it once.

Just googled the site and here is part of the intro for today.

"…Merriman says Pluto is ruler of debt and fear of the worst, so this recent conjunction of Jupiter and Pluto is behind the panic associated with the subprime credit crisis…."

Complete with charts, predictions, cycles etc and all the proof "some" people need.

http://www.bradleymodel.com/

I take it with a chunk of salt myself, but I have seen people do strange things under the full moon on a beach in the islands

OOOPS

Sorry type key crashed in the middle of drafting that last post then double posted the draft and final.

Sorry Bill, now I also see your post that you prefer to keep things a little more on topic.

isaiah- re schedule D: i think 1997 was the first year i experienced enough trading volume to generate wash sales. recall going down to the IRS office in SF to discuss the "correct" way of accounting for all of them (a few included carrying over disallowed losses on stocks which had split more than once, sometimes 2 for 3, etc)...ended up with a 27-page schedule D, which took me two weeks of long nights to complete...

finally turfed this insane exercise to a CPA...if Intuit is able to design a program that will automatically fill out the schedule D for a (non-professional) daytrader->I would buy it for $149...

what the IRS needs to do is a) eliminate the capitals gains tax, or b) streamline the paperwork involved in accounting for the capitals gains tax...

2nd

This MBA says the IRS allows you to add it to your basis if you have enough winning trades.

This may be a personal question if so then just don't reply..no problem...I understand... but does your CPA make adjustments for "wash-sales" as she describes?

isaiah- not sure what my (current) CPA does, but suspect that she simply "nets" the gains/losses...more than one CPA has given me this (relatively unsatisfactory) explanation...however, she is competent and has been around a long time, and this method appears to be the industry standard...maybe a tax attorney on this board can weigh in...fwiw, after submitting my 1997 taxes, i subsequently noticed a few errors->not sure why i bothered, but returned to the SF office, and NO ONE either gave a ---t or had enough expertise to deal with the adjustments (basically told me to forget about it)...so my advice to you is: life is short, and unless you enjoy this stuff, don't waste your time on an (essentially meaningless) puzzle devised by people with nothing better to do...give it to a CPA...in the time it would take you to sort it out, you will make many times the cost of delegating this task...

2nd

Thanks.... being an engineer I am a stickler for details. Especially when it comes to my "duckies" [$$$$].

Goodnight everyone....

Isaiah:
From your Scottrade home page, go to "My account" tab on top; then click on "Gainskeeper" in the left column.

There you can get summary or DETAILED taxable implications of your trades; these will include "wash sale" amounts.

Then follow the IRS instructions and....after an interminable period of checking and re-checking, you should be able to balance those with your Scottrade IRS P&L statement.

Good Luck!!!!!

INFY:
It appears to be a good buy tomorrow. Is there any reason why I would not want to begin accululating it at this juncture? I am also starting to buy TTM (Tata Motors). They are coming out with a $2500.00 usd car next year. I think that that concept will be big in the states since I believe individuals would like a car that they can use on the fly to save on gas and not be compounded with an expensive car. Even if it is small. TTM is also involved in commercial construction in India.

INFY:
It appears to be a good buy tomorrow. Is there any reason why I would not want to begin accululating it at this juncture? I am also starting to buy TTM (Tata Motors). They are coming out with a $2500.00 usd car next year. I think that that concept will be big in the states since I believe individuals would like a car that they can use on the fly to save on gas and not be compounded with an expensive car. Even if it is small. TTM is also involved in commercial construction in India.

Unlike most talking heads, Herb Greenberg actually uses his.

Here he is on Citigroup's dividend:

http://tinyurl.com/yvwuzl

JDS Uniphase wins shareholder lawsuit
http://tinyurl.com/yt29xs

I looked at Tata a couple of years ago when thinking about investing in Tetley Tea, a sure-fire growth market. A friend of mine from India talked me out of investing in it.

The $2500 car sounds like something that would come out of Malcolm Bricklin.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bricklin_SV-1

http://www.cars101.com/subaru_bricklin.html

Does it look like this? (hilarious)
http://tinyurl.com/3dkp2a

Excellent report on the general Auto Industry from August 2007.
http://tinyurl.com/37ozpo

I believe in the Bradley Model too... and the Lunar Cycle in Stock Market Returns. Whatever works...

http://tinyurl.com/3bg3w4

No I don't believe in werewolves.

I think the wash sale stuff applies to long term holdings... the irs want to prevent you from selling a stock taking a loss (in 2007) and then immediately buying the stock back. when day trading (or swing trading) it doesnt matter, since you are flat, or will be flat soon.

my sched D looks like this: lets say i was in and out of HOV 8 time in 2007, 500s each time for a total of 4000s

date Date
bought Shares Sold Net Gain/Loss
"Various" 4000 "Various" $1000

I use excel to compute (add) the total sales so that I can put all HOV trades on one line. simple. I use an Accountant and have been doing this for years. The key is that your total sales line on your sched D matches the total on the 1099 from your broker....

A little research show my Accountant is using this part if the Sched D instructions:

If you sold a block of stock (or similar property) that you acquired through several different purchases, you may report the sale on one line and enter “VARIOUS” in column (b). However, you still must report the term gain or (loss) on the sale in Part I and the long-term gain or (loss) in Part II.

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sd.pdf

Good info on the handling of multiple trades on Sched D - thank you all. Now does anyone know of tax software that will accept sched D info from an Excel spreadsheet? I've been filing paper returns because I don't want to pay gainskeepers' high charges, nor convert my spreadsheet to quickbooks.

Dear Mr. Cara,

Re:"Having said that; this is my blog and NOBODY is going to associate me with crap."Posted by: Bill Cara at November 27, 2007 9:17 PM

I am sorry. THAT was not my intention. Please delete the post. I saw it in a different light, considering the source.

I do appreciate all you do and am grateful for all you give. Again, I apologise and will be more careful next time I post.

Thank you Sir.

NYUgrad November 27, 2007 10:10 PM

"JDS Uniphase wins shareholder lawsuit"

Yes that's too bad for the shareholders, but pretty hard to win these types of cases with the deck stacked the way it currently is. I wonder if these guys had any of their bonus's clawed back. I worked 18 years for Nortel including that period thru 2002 and I'm sure I read that some of the top Nortel guys had bonus's clawed back, especially after they had to restate their books.

Did these guys have insider information, sure they did. Did they sell stock on that knowledge, well the normal practice was to get bonus's in stock and options and once the freeze was off it was prudent to move some capital into other investments. Now I know a few ex Nortel people who still have all their stock, never diversified and are waiting for it to go back to $120 (or $1200 split adjusted).

I feel sorry for most of these people and I knew a lot of them in the telecom industry. I was new to stock investing then, but I did some diversification and reduced my NT position all the way down. I did play a few of the false bottoms but bailed quickly and finally capitulated the last of my stock at $15 ($150 split adj).

On the way up the dot com bubble was a great place to be an engineer, money was flowing and things happened fast. But around the peak the pressures on monthly and quarterly financial numbers were tremendous. The guys at the top were always saying calculate it again its not the number want to see. The accounting dept was always finding new ways to juggle the capital vs expense columns, sales were always pulling orders forward (quarter after quarter), at year end empty boxes of equipment would arrive just to get the expense on the books. When they couldn't pull orders forward any longer, they invented vendor financing to kick start things again. As an engineer I thought this was all crazy but being in the wrong dept I had no say in the matter and every other company was doing the same thing.

Not sure who exactly to blame for all the irrational exuberance during that time, just sad that 40,000 people at Nortel alone lost jobs of a caliber that can't be replaced. And I'm one of them, downsized just a year before I would have been eligible for a pension. So now like many others I'm in charge of my own future and finding Bill's blog has been an excellent resource to trade ideas on how to protect and grow what we have left. (thanks Bill and all).

With respect to these share holder actions has anyone here had the experience? I've received a few packages over the years but never thought it would be worth my time to get involved. Always tried to cut the loss early (still working on that one), write it off as the cost of learning and moved on. The amount of documentation and forms and data to be submitted always seemed like way to much work for the pennies on the dollar I might collect. Also I was never comfortable that somewhere in the fine print I might end up actually owing something for their actions, sort of like don't worry its all free (just pay a small amount for shipping and handling, ya right).

INFY,
I'm in hunker down mode but with some equity exposure, including a recent position in INP/india etn...soI downloaded prices in the cara global 100 and took a tour of the charts.My goodness, it's a sickmess out there. My eyeballs tell me that if this select group of stockprices are having a hard time, then there's less light at the end of tunnel than I thought. Relatively speaking, global tel and consumer staples are healthier. In the past 3 months, 22 still have over 20% gains! Of these 22, eight have one yr gains of over 97% gains! I suppose that if p/e's are still within limits these outsized gains should not mean anything but in this climate the sell-button-finger has got to be ready to protect profits.

Kaimu, thanks for your reply, I respect your views and appreciate your directness. IMO it really comes down to a philosophical difference. Personally, I invest in bullion and trade GLD plus various gold equity shares and occasionally gold futures.

I think that Gartman mainly addresses an institutional crowd that has different objectives than individuals. The reason I brought up his point of view is that some people may not want to be exposed to the risk and volatility of mining shares
(not to mining expertise, nor mining risks, nor hedging problems, nor any of the
exogenous circumstances that surround gold mining).

NG dropped 50% in a heartbeat as can any junior mining stock and as can any stock. What is the likelihood of GLD dropping 50% in a heartbeat?

Has gold had a history of dropping $400 in a heartbeat? Not to my knowledge. It has dropped say $100 to $150 which at that time would have been about a
-17.64% loss on $850 gold.

The probability of this occurrence (-50%) is much less than any gold junior. I think that this is the point that Gartman is making.

Again, knowing both sides’ views gives one an opportunity to pick the best path for their situation. Eyes wide open or eyes wide shut.

With respect to GLD and gold futures contract (100 oz), I can assure you that they have traded in an almost perfect correlation since inception of GLD (this through daily observation of each vehicle’s daily % of change).

There is one thing you say that I take exception to. You said “”GLD has “real” risk.””

All life, all investments of any kind have “real risk.” The variable that we are all trying to gauge is what investments/trades we should have on and when to minimize risk and maximize gain. All this is easier said than done.

My bullion was purchase in the 80”s was for about $500oz and languished for over a decade hitting a low of about $250oz. We all know that gold did nothing for 25 years. Is this, was this not real risk?

You know Bill, history is now unfolding. This is all a big deal. Your observations through the day are like comments in the margin, as it were.

I know I should now engage in more personal journaling to document the lessons I'm learning from these events, and hopefully capture a clear path on how we (as a society) traversed the path when this all plays out. I have a feeling my grandkids will want a few details from someone who lived through it. I don't think I'm being melodramatic.

Timg and karln,

Thanks for answering my questions with respect to % gain needed to recoup losses.

I know it is a simple concept, but it amazes me how many people trade and are not aware of the mathematics. Without this knowledge how can one practice risk management?

Thanks again.

Bill's comment on oil and gold dropping into the night is gonna mean something. Speculative phase ending? Fat lady moving off the stage? Hedge funds closing their positions? Commodity bust on the way?

Bill, my sense is that you previously spoke to the likelihood of a commodity bust. I seem to follow your thesis when I first read it, but please keep up your repetition of past commentary. It really helps me as you continue to make your points and explain underlying reasons. Could be your original guidance on lower gold prices is getting validated. The weather changes quickly.

Re: Shareholder actions

"Also I was never comfortable that somewhere in the fine print I might end up actually owing something for their actions"

My assumption is that the only thing a class member gives up is the right to sue the company over the same problem. In exchange the class member gets some money. My assumption is that a judge would not approve a class settlement release that could somehow make the class member owe something. Also, the plaintiff's lawyer would probably get in big trouble for pulling something like that. The plaintiff's lawyer just wants the legal fees paid by the company, not stick it to class members.

Lots of assumptions. Take it with a grain of salt.

Novice November 28, 2007 1:04 AM
Re: Shareholder actions

Yes I agree, I just never wanted to plow throw the couple of hundred pages of information to convince myself of, and being in Canada there was often the cross boarder complication added to it. Also due to failing eyes I now need a magnifying glass to read that stuff.

ALOHA !!

Telestar3d ... Thanks for your reply and I see your points ... BUT ...

You make the same mistake as Gartman by assuming that GLD is the same as GOLD ... IT IS NOT! I have admitted many times gold shares are risky, but so is GLD. I can envision circumsatnces where GLD could easily drop 50% even with POG rising. I agree with you that GOLD would be less likely to drop 50% and in fact I have stated many times here that GOLD can NEVER file bankruptcy. You and Gartman wrongfully assume GLD can never file bankruptcy. That is the mistake that thousands of GLD investors make and my point is that the Wall Street bankers that control GLD are not to be trusted ... They are the OPM World. They can change the rules and the business model for GLD on a dime! The US FED can swap the GLD gold on a dime! Global CBs have been raiding the people's gold for decades now which is partly why the POG was suppressed for so long.

Please ... you are now telling us all that putting your trust in the same people that hyped Enron and WorldCom right up to their bankruptcies is wise? PAPER IS RISK PERIOD!

So gold went to $250 an ounce what did Enron go to? You still have your gold investment. Talk to Enron retirees now working as WalMart greeters about their wise investment! What did CFC go to? What about Northern Rock? Look at all the major banks looking for major bailouts now? Today Wells Fargo is on the block! GOLD has never had a "bailout" in 6000 years!

Gartman cannot prove to me that GLD cannot file bankruptcy and neither can you ... Can you?

Real RISK? Real risk is waking up every morning and commuting to work every day!

GLD is "real risk"!! PERIOD!! You and Gartman have not convinced me it is not and that is why I do not buy GLD or any other ETF ... I have written a few articles on ETFs and nobody here reads the "fine print"! The "devil" is in the details.

Here is a bet ... You can pass it along to Gartman! I will bet that NOVAGOLD shares will be more profitable than GLD by the end of 2009 including the 53% drop! NG is already up 10% today! I will put my money where my mouth is. I will ante up one gold British Sovereign coin. Do you or Gartman want to take that bet? You guys are hanging your hat on NOVAGOLD's poor performance as to why GLD is a better choice! Seems like a no brainer ... right?

You still haven't posted Gartman's highly profitable record ...

Goldman Sachs was a little late to the party on some of the sectors that they dissed and recommended. Nevertheless, I noting that there are more and more opinion makers who are expressing concerns about our (1) being in a recession currently or (2) on the brink of one.

How any ascertain what the percentage risk is, I'll never now. 1/3, 50+, 85? High, medium low works for me. I'm also seeing more folks acknowledging the importance of the consumer to both our and the world's economy.

These are all issues that have been in discussion here. Kudos to the blog.

Florida School Fund Rocked by $8 Billion Pullout Amid Defaults.

http://tinyurl.com/yw62ee

Kaimu,

I do not know Gartman, or what his record is. I do know he is as often wrong as he is right. The most successful trader I ever knew was right on only 32% of his trades and he is highly profitable.

As for your bet, I’m not interested in the least. My goal is an absolute return, period. I applaud anyone who makes large returns since I know risk is relative to return.

I guess, I should just buy only gold, set up shrine and worship it daily.

Kaimu, you make a lot of really excellent points, you care and our passionate about your views.

Finally, I have two secrets the first secret about the stock market is there is no secret. The second is real wealth, real wealth is health.

Peace brother.

Telestar3d

"real wealth is health"

Amen to that! I am one weathly guy...

Shalom!

Gartman's record as per his newsletter is up 15.3% ytd. His Canadian Fund is up the same. He is short and long stocks, long gold w/ puts to protect, cotton and soybean oil.

Today it looks like we're in for irrational exuberance. They want to rally this peice of junk as long as they can to extract as much wealth from the people as possible.

WFC,FRE announce write offs and cut dividends and they rally? Who am I to fight the tape?

Then we have Fed vice-chair Kohn out telling us that the weak USD "will work itself out if we focus on the economy".

IOW, he confirms Ron Paul's accusation that they constantly want to focus on prices and not on actual value. Unfortunately it does work out by STEALING WEALTH of savers and investors, again and again and again.

MORON is too small a word to describe this idiot.

INFY preparing to gap up on the open. TTM the same.

Risks in India

In reference to interest on India based companies (INFY, TTM, CTSH)not sure how many are aware of the risks in India's political/social infrastructure. For whatever reason these items are not widely reported in the press here.

In advance - I actually am bullish on India long term but expect some bumps on the way.

Prime Minister on Naxalite (Extreme left wing communists aka Maoists) as the graveset threat to India)
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1489633.cms

On infiltration of top level government:
http://www.india-defence.com/reports/3032

117 policemen killed in one district in 2007 by
http://tinyurl.com/28baqc