ETF's in AZ/DZ using Korvus RSI:

Sell Alert: USO

Distribution Zone: UDN

Buy Alert: RWX, XLY, XLF, UUP

As Bill says you may have to adjust your RSI levels depending on the market you are in. Lower for Bear's and higher for Bull's (I think I have this correct?). If so then I would consider some of the sectors flashing a buy alert to still be out of range due to being in a bear like XLF and XLY. I would revisit these on a RSI level of 20 and in conjunction with another supporting piece of info like a chart pushing back trhough long term resistance.

Your opinions on this and the method I am using are appreciated.

An exploration update from from Yamana today sending shares a bit higher in pre-market.

And Citigroup has downgraded a slew of home builder stocks this morning. Citi is home of the (formerly?) uncritical housing cheerleader Steven Kim.

I would NOT read this as a sign of a bottom. Now that the CDO mess is out of the bag, Kim may have been given more latitude. In any case, his continued bullishness throughout this saga has already completely discredited him as a serious analyst.

Good Morning.......here are your Cara 100 U/D for this morning:

Upgrades:

BA - to Outperform @ Wachovia
AET - to Overweight @ JP Morgan

_________________________________________________

Sorry for the late post. An evening with the Philadelphia Eagles, too much Spatlese and a problem with the coffee maker gave me a late start today.

Have a profitable day, all.

Hmmm... futures have done a rather abrupt about face.

If we don't get a follow through from Friday dubious rally, it could get rather ugly.

he credit crunch and meltdown in bank shares resulting from the subprime mortgage crisis exposed to public view the esoteric world of structured investment vehicles, conduits and other vehicles that had helped make fortunes in more liquid times. As funds have dried up, a strategy has emerged to make the most of bad times: vulture restructuring, whereby a bank such as Goldman Sachs feeds on its own dead flesh to survive. - Henry C K Liu

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK27Dj07.html

Bill:

From your Nov.25th Wrap up:

"Thirty-eight billion dollars will soon be paid out as annual bonuses to officers and directors of HB&B. This is not a piddling amount. Do you think they earned it?...and consider the hundreds of thousands of staff this industry terminated this year, and will have to again next year:

...This is a disaster...and yet they have decided to pay themselves out of shareholder capital a record high $38 billion.

If that isn’t contempt for society, I don’t know what is...

We need to wake up to how far these people have taken us down the road in their quest for power, prestige and perks...

...Society needs better than what these people have given us."

While I strongly believe in the capitalist system these types of decisions by some corporate leaders only gives those that want to destroy the system more ammunition to rile the masses.

I again mention my father's situation back in the late 50's (and MANY MORE like him as I believe you mentioned your father's similar situation) when as an owner of a construction company with some money in the bank and no work continued to pay his workers until he was broke.

The type of Capitalists who are making these decisions on bonuses under the conditions you mention need to remember that the excess profits they are using are the result of the efforts of ALL employees and investors.

I am sure they will be the first to complain if society ever forces government to regulate the way wages, bonuses etc should be distributed... that would put a crimp on their belief that THEY,who don't understand that they put their pants on the same way as everyone else, "should take from the poor to give to the rich."

Oh, how many of those laid off workers didn't have to be laid off at this time?

Oh, how many of those honest, trying to pay off their mortgages people could that $38 billion have helped?

I'm with #2son.

The "rally" isn't shaping up as planned so far.

Financials down. Not good for rallies.
XLE is down, which could help, but it looks like it's taking gold as a passenger.

GDX looks to open lower. Watching for a breakdown here.

EWZ and BHP not looking good either.
When we rally these do too. Doesn't look good for today unless news changes.

golfer, compare your father's noble action to that of Citigroup, which according to a report on CNBC is planning "massive layoffs".

Who in good conscience could accept a bonus knowing that it comes at the expense of a co-worker's job?

afd

Bill, as a "new" member (I've been reading/observing your discourse and community chat for a year), I want to thank you and the community for sharing your thoughts and ideas. I don't want to clutter the space with anything else, when I have something that I feel could be of value to this community I will share it. Gus.

UNG- dec07 nymex up 3.2%...profit-taking on the agenda..

Bill,
In your WIR you mentioned the connection between the USD and Oil. I agree with you that this
relationship is on a lot of investor's radar screen. I posted some charts that you may find interesting. I expect the USD to stop declining by showing its relationship with OIL and Real Interest Rates.

Bill,

The other day I read that because of ETFs like GLD that gold mining stocks will not enjoy the increase in price as they did in previous gold rallies. The reason given is gold owning type ETFs are taking the money now that would of normally gone into these gold mining stocks.

What do you think, any truth to this?

Fellow Americans,

If you read this you will want to go back to bed and crawl under the covers. It is not a pretty picture if he is correct or even partially correct.

NEW BUCHANAN BOOK DECLARES 'END OF AMERICA'

http://tinyurl.com/3x8jat

FXP- adding at the open (total exposure at this point only 30% of normal, however, as i have no real take on mkt direction)..

UNG- off the table at 40.42..

FXP adding here.

I recall Bill opining once that the first hour to hour and a half on Monday especially after a holiday is not very important. I tend to agree. Let's see how things work out a little later.

(Exception of course would be some geo-political market moving event)

Grgold:

Someone's clutter is someone else's gold?

Citi downgraded the home builders from a buy to wait for it wait for it....yes a "hold". Citi is kindly asking you to sit tight and hold your shares of the home builders. If you happen to lose your shirt while holding these nuke bombs just feel comfort in knowing we no longer had a buy on them.

I believe first we would see S&P 500 at 1600 before we would see it at 1300 ( if we would see it at all at these levels).

As everyone seems so bearish does anyone is willing to change with me S&P 500 calls at 1600, for S&P puts at 1300?

Thanks,

Lugopt- it wouldn't be an even trade (for you), but i'll take it ;)

OOOPS! Looks like I lost my way to Bill Cara .com and found tha paramutual window where gamblers want to trade one ticket for another, when no one knows the winner.

There is a difference between having skin in the game and getting one's balls in the way.

It would seem to me that getting hooked on either position would be foolish.

Now, if you come here with some real information and not some childish bet, then I'm all ears.

Bill,

You've opined that going forward that the better gold play will be to buy the commodity rather than the miners. If I remember correctly part of the reason is that the cost of production is going to increase to make mining less profitable.

With rising costs do you expect the miners to produce less? Or, could this play out like the airline industry where carriers are willing to accept smaller margins?

If you expect reduced production, is this part of the case for an extreme rise in the price of the commodity?

Thanks,
Erik P

Looking behind the curtain, I guess did not work as well this time. Bill's commentary echos another set of asset classes that I follow scored for relative strength: cash, bonds,...and yellow stuff are at the top of the list. 11/9 was my first signal for gld...but now to trade the prices for a relatively longer term hold, yikes. Nice to see more mention of etfs, though I have not been following the original discussion. Refreshing to see Bill, as opposed to others, show continuity in what they are thinking. 1450 looks like where the bears will have to give it to the bulls.

lugopt...

Did you buy some of those Jan 1600 calls that were selling for 20.00 at the beginning of this month?...

NOW THEY ARE AT <3.00...That's an 85% HAIRCUT...

I guess now they are a safer bet..:)

Bill:
Love your free market system comment. The only way to make it work is IRON-CLAD rules which the thieves don't like, plus putting someone other than the fox in charge of the hen-house.

The greater problem in today's world is finding people with integrity to run (as opposed to "game") the system. Where does one begin the search? Certainly not New York or Washington; maybe Outer Mongolia.

FNM, short again.
Shorts and ultras returning....
That FXP is looking like a good idea...at this point.

PM's not showing a lot of uummph here either.

2nd, any strength seems to be in the NASD on the large cap techs.

Financials and energy not so strong...

Looks like WE may have overestimated a rally...so far. It's early yet.

Made some $ on BA today. There's a bull market somewhere!

With the U.S. two-year Treasury note yield at 3.10% and the U.S. federal funds rate at 4.50%, two-year investors have priced in a U.S. recession. But the U.S. stock market is only off about 8% from its highs and trying to rally. So which market is correct--a recession priced in by Treasury investors or an economic slowdown priced in by equity investors?

We believe that a U.S. recession is a high probability, even though stocks have not sold off yet in a big way. With stock market technicals still negative, the stock market downtrend is still underway. So we are on high alert for a big slam down in stocks. Usually the move down occurs over a 3-6 week period. If such a move does occur, it will represent the best buying opportunity for stocks since July/Oct 2002.

JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Craig:

Did you see my post yesterday about HEM.TO... Hemisphere GPS relative to farming?

Gotta go with the grown-ups in the bond market.

Hard to not see bond yields and nasty technicals for equities. Still playing both sides to the degree possible.

Shorts, ultras and FXP starting to pay off today.
I'm open to a rally, but I have to trade it the way I see it. Can't fight the tape.

I feel for all the smaller Novagold shareholders today. I was looking at buying Novagold just two weeks ago but, didn't pull the triggger. How is it that senior management weren't aware of this horrible development at Galore Creek at the time when Barrick was making its all cash offer for Novagold recently?

Ah yes, Golfer:
Don't have any personal experience as I'm not a row cropper growing corn/soybeans/wheat. But some of this stuff rubs off when researching all types of ag.
Those guys need to automate as much as possible and GPS systems allow them to operate equipment and multiple operations with far less man power.
With husbandry all set to resistant seed and designer herbicides this system is a no brainer.

The only thing I would watch is competition.

"Is that all you got, chump?"

If this is the best that the bulls can muster after the "great" Black Friday sales, IMHO, they're in for a world of pain.

Bill:

I hear you.

I wasn't raised on the "wrong side of the tracks" I was raised between two sets of tracks. I believe that because of the systems you mention I was able to get an education and have a very successful life..not rich by any means. But I feel that I could be if I wanted to be.

Can someone comment on Cara 100 stock Infosys (INFY). Buy alert triggered as RSI's are 28,23,30. Current P/E is 22. It's approaching a long term trendline going back to April 2005 that provides support in the 37'ish area. Can someone tell me why this stock has been beaten up this bad. Along with MU it's the only Cara 100 stock not related to financial, housing. Any opinions on this one?

Craig:

What type of farming are you in?

INP/india ipath diverged upward from FXI/china on nov 16th. The two countries seem to often be compared with India as having the same growth potential but not as well covered in the media. Country wise, India and Spain in the other part of the world are showing the most resilience.

29% in equities.

geckojb. Another Cara100 to consider is WFMI. Current rsi7 is 27.1

http://tinyurl.com/37dc9p

The url /37dc9p above refers to an article on the Credit Crunch" in the Economist

My wife runs a small nursery with several greenhouses and some open acreage production.
I used to be more involved but there is only so much a person can do, and I like *this*!
I'm into livestock and herding dogs to control livestock which is easier to work into my trading schedule.

"Can someone tell me why this stock has been beaten up this bad."

geckojb,

I'm just a humble music teacher from PA, but I'd guess that because quite of bit of their services are geared toward the banking industry is one major reason for weakness in its stock price.

Regards

Greetings from Ljubljana

I have just published my regular weekly article highlighting some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.

Here is the link to the "words from the wise": http://tinyurl.com/2vlapc

Bull Hunter

What part of PA is the music coming from?

"Is that all you got, chump?"

...this from "just a humble music teacher from PA"?

let's take it down->the contrarian trade today ;)

Does anyone have a resource for the analysis of data related to the amount of money going into 401K's and other investment entities over specific time periods... and relating it to the overall market returns during those periods?

At risk of showing my ignorance... It seems to me...over long periods what happens is...the public is putting more money into the markets, and in general, overall, are they are getting lower returns than should be anticipated.

I believe what is happening is from year to year the market shows little gains...people receive their brokerage statements and they show a little gain on their money...and they are satisfied. Then a coordinated effort to bring the market down is made by the HB&B and the public is fleeced of their hard-earned money in an extreme manner. The public panics and sells at the bottom in fear they may lose all they have saved. This meltdown is not done based on the value of assets but on how the HB&B's are positioned. And depending where the individuals in the public are in that cycle, depends on how bad they get hurt. Then the HB&B reap the rewards.

I realize money can be made owning valuable investments while buying them at a low price but, generally speaking, it just seems to me with the amount of money going into the market from workers in 401K funds, etc. the overall returns for the average investor should be higher over long periods... but it is not since the HB&B are taking their cut off the top...again, over the long term.

I may be totally mistaken on this, missing something in the macro picture and much more ...but any info or viewpoints on this would be appreciated.

Searching back through previous postings, Bill has called INFY one of his favorites after the bear market commences. This might be one to put on your watch list.

citations:

http://www.billcara.com/archives/2006/06/indian_tea_leav.html

ALOHA !!

Isaiah64v4 ... With regards to the GLD and SLV ETFs versus mining companies. Of course funds are being diverted from mining companies. Just remember who supplies GLD and SLV with their gold and silver! Even in the best of times any company, even mining companies and MSFT and GE, will suffer from inflation. Inflation effects companies bottom lines across the board just as inflation effects your bottom line as a consumer. Your paper money buys less so manufacturers produce less ... Its still supply and demand, except where "real money" comes into play when a failing economy and a failed monetary system meet up head-to-head. Thats when the demand side kicks into overdrive PLUS!! Supply will not be able to turn on a dime like demand will. Once the average US citizen wakes up to the "real value" of a US Peso IOU then GLD and SLV will become "barbarous relics" ... Think about it. When you sell GLD or SLV what do you get? Hyper-depreciating paper! Companies like GOLDMONEY will be in the same boat as GLD and SLV. Only refiners and mints will have the best chance to survive. The Perth Mint comes to mind. It is being supplied by one of the most resource rich countries in the World with the least country risk ... Australia. To be even more specific the State of Western Australia. The two best mining states in the USA are Alaska and Nevada yet the land mass of just Western Australia is like 3 times the size of Alaska and Nevada combined.

Imagine your typical investor coming to their broker at Merrill and asking ... "I want to put some of my portfolio into gold. What should I do?" Naturally the broker will say buy GLD since it is the "Wall Street" way to advise holding paper. Deciphering and valuing mining companies is not easy and any time your stock price depends on holes drilled into the ground the risk factor is high. You learned all about the US Congress and disecting frogs and sex in high school what did you learn about money and geology and mining in high school? Simple fact is that most Americans have no idea about what real money is and were never taught. If they did then GLD and SLV would not exist today. If a US investor demands to buy into a gold miner then the broker will say two companies ... Barrick and Newmont. The phrase "junior explorer" will never even come up in the conversation. A friend of mine in Las Vegas proved that point recently when he went to his broker at AG Edwards asking about gold and mining companies. YEP ... GLD and Barrick! Another phrase you won't hear until much later in the game is "micro mining". Ask your broker about that if you want a good eye glazing blank stare!

The problems with the ETFs that are depending on an ample supply of gold and silver to "buy" as the spot prices rise is that the supply won't be there and when that happens and you start to see a divergence in the spot price(POG) and GLD you will know the jig is up. At that point GLD and SLV will restate their business model and start buying futures as their purchases of the actual metals falls off a cliff. Then they become nothing more than paper which is what they have been all along! The rush into mining and junior explorers will be staggering on that day. Mining companies are the printing presses of "real money" and junior explorers supply the miners. It is that simple and there is no way around that fact ... PERIOD!

Isaiah,

I'm in the heart of Amish Country, Lancaster County, PA.

Regards

Craig:

Neat.

Isn't this technology something....used to have to wait for the Saturday paper to get all that data on the CLOSING price...how long to get a company's financial statement/report to do some DD...draw all those charts....

People who do not understand the "buy and hold" style do not realize that under those conditions that was the only game in town for the vast majority of investors. (Some did day trade then but you had to go downtown to an office and watch the ticker tape and do your thing.)

It still is if you really think about it...a hold of a year back then might be a week today, a few seconds??

Now you can sit in your room, do research, blog and if you want a break watch your dog do the work you used to do....only in ?????

KRY---Not a good day for this!

KRY - Must be something to do with political instability? Can't see anything else...

Anyone looking at CGS.TO yet? How about Etrade?

Is anyone playing the buyout of BCE, CBH, or any others? There seems to be a good spread between the current price & buyout prices of these companies.

Tax Loss Selling

Question - is it too early to start looking for tax loss selling candidates? I've got a few small caps I am looking at purchasing and a number of them have had fairly strong downward moves the last couple of weeks and I'm not sure if I should jump in now or wait a few more weeks and hope to get even cheaper.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

craig- managing risk and taking 1/2 of QID/DUG/FXP off...still no real take on mkt direction...

Kaimu

Thanks for the post..

So what you are saying is, when gold becomes more scarce and the ETFs cannot easily obtain it, then the money that once was flowing into the gold ETFs will start to flow into the miners like it had before in past bull rallies.

Is that correct?

Bull Hunter,

South of Pittsburgh.

2nd,
I'm still pointing negative but took FXP profits, BA, and covered my FNM short with a profit.

Still in a half position of DUG/QID/DXD, would add on a good pullback/general mkt strength if it occurs.

This looks just like it did before Thanksgiving, no real change in my view so far.

What about Nova Gold (NG), down over 40%, my God!
Is this right?

KRY:
I don't think it is a political instability issue today. It is the fact that the Vens are placing all of their efforts on the Dec. 3rd vote. Mining permits take a back seat unless Chavez wants to pull it out of his hat for miner votes. 2.50 is support anyway and it is Monday. A favorite day for running the stops.

Sen. Lott resigning...."time to do something else". You mean like avoid an embarrassing election once you and your party have ruined the nation?

Has everyone noticed how the dogs are trying to bury Ron Paul? The only real Republican left breathing. Funny, as a life-long Dem I can't think of a better candidate.

I'm done with parties...as Bill says, they are puppets on the same string. I'll take loyalty to country and common sense over party anyday.

ALOHA !!

Isaiah64v4 ... YES ... Actually it goes beyond just the ETFs. What happens when coin shop supplies and even EBay supplies dry up. See I do not think Americans, except the few here and at other GOLD websites have been hoarding gold, so there will not be any selling by the public other than gold rings and jewelry and such in order to pay bills. Most Americans don't own GLD but they have plenty of MSFT and C in their 401ks or pensions. Even fewer actually have ever seen a Canadian Maple Leaf coin! In essence there is no real demand yet in America ... We are still mesmerized by the paper and the US Peso.

My friend and I are were just chuckling about what the new global one currency name will be. Like the Euro and the Amero we thought up a good name for a World currency ... the BOZO!! That sums up my opinion of all fiat money! I am biased that way ...

Re. Prieur

This indeed is a small world. I'm also from Ljubljana. Enjoyed reading your 'Words'...

Kaimu,

I see your point about folks here on the main land no knowing the time of day when it comes to the real value of gold as a means to protect their wealth.

Not a bad name for the World currrency...BOZO!
I like it.

Just like Kaimu to improve on "Looney", the former perfect fiat currency name.
The Bozo makes sense. We have clowns running everything else.

"Bozo, Bozo, always falls, never gains..."

I put the url to the article on the Credit Crunch for a number of reasons. I thought it could be interst, provide some backgroud info, give some insight etc.

It also pertained to a position I took in a Canadian company a number of weeks ago for a long term play (1 to 3 yrs) with the intent of increasing my postion along the way barring any major disaster.

Well, on Nov 14 it had a high of 1.75 and closed at 1.68...opens on a GAP DOWN on Nov. 15th, hits a low of .47 and closes at .50.

What happened?....like most companies they had bank credit backing which had always been renewed at regular intervals...but not this time...CREDIT CRUNCH

We have a company with a backlog of orders, looking for more workers but now facing bankrupcy by the end of the month.

My initial reaction was this could be great as my gut feeling (helped by what I thought was good DD)told me that there was no way that this company was going to be allowed to go under.
I make up my mind that I will watch the trades over the next day or two before I make a move to buy more or sell. It comes off the bottom..not a bear trap but off the bottom.

Nov. 23rd...a $40 million Private Placement from money in the UK is being worked out.

Yes there is a Credit Crunch in many areas of the economy as the article points out and it may get worse but the fact that this company was able to raise $40 million in a relatively short period of time shows that there is still private money out there that is being used to invest in corporations.

Now, my biggest problem...do I wait for this AZ/DZ/RSI/MACD system that I have been doing my best to learn from all of you involved in this blog to give me the buy or sell signal or do I????

Bull Hunter, you are a music teacher...do you know the song that asked: "Do you wanna dance..."

Seabridge [SA] is getting pounded

Anyone know why?

Hammer "Does anyone have a resource for the analysis of data related to the amount of money going into 401K's and other investment entities..."

The following is a site that posts weekend fund inflows and outflows. I don't see free historical info, though... it would probably worth tracking the data in Excel over time.

AMG Data Services
Independent Data on Fund Flows & Holdings
http://www.amgdata.com/

bb - I think it is too early to buy into tax loss selling. The year-end rally may still occur and I'm sure investors are still hoping their stock will recover before year end - it's hard to take a 50% or more loss until the last possible minute. Once they figure out their stock is dead, they will sell in later December.

I played GM in 2005 (3-yr chart). There was significant selling in Dec 2005 as investors bailed to lock in their loss for the 2005 tax year. There was a little more selling the first trading day of 2006 as a few investors choose to take their loss in 2006, then GM rose 10% in 5 days.

Although Kirk Kerkorian was manipulating GM by pretending he was going to make a big investment and turn GM around, I still think much of price effect was due to tax loss selling and possibly share repurchase after the 30-day wash-sale period expired.

That's my 2 cents (about all it's worth)

Isaiah,
For miners you must monitor XAU/GDX and keep the other miners on your watchlist.

Sectors tend to move together. If one miner like NG reports bad news all the miners tend to tank in sympathy, esp when it's all about expenses and margins.

This is what will ultimately make bullion run higher. Gold moves higher, but mining it costs more and more, putting more miners in trouble, limiting supply and driving gold higher on both supply and currency issues.

Prieur/Alexx

Re: Ljubjana

I haven't been to Ljubljana yet, but a few years back when I was living in Ferrara, Italy, I had the chance to take a few days off and head over to Croatia (by way of Slovenia). We spent a night in Trieste (Italy) and then crossed to border through Slovenia to Rijecka (Croatia). From there we transferred buses and headed to Krk (Croatia) including a trip on what I was told is the world's largest concrete bridge!

We had a great weekend in Krk, walking along the cobblestone streets and walking up on the pier. I also remember having a cocktail in a bar that was entirely dedicated to Humphrey Bogart - how could I forget that! I surely can't wait to make it back for a trek along the coast (and to check out Slovenia/Ljubjana and the eastern Alps)!

Craig,

"If one miner like NG reports bad news all the miners tend to tank in sympathy, esp when it's all about expenses and margins.

This is what will ultimately make bullion run higher."

Good point!

Bull Hunter, you are a music teacher...do you know the song that asked: "Do you wanna dance..."

Sure do, golfer, but I like the video that Ron posted on his blog, "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet". :^)

Regards

Thanks TimG...Looks like a great resource.

ALOHA !!

What I find amazing is that these "bozos" that trade the FOREX will be happy to trade the USDX down to .00000000000001!!!

My friend and I were laughing about how floor traders and brokers and CNBC would be talking under that scenario.

"Hey the Bozo lost 70% yesterday and its down 10% today!!! I think we're in for a rally here!"

"Oh Yeah ... I think support level here at .0000008 will hold! Did you see the article on the cover of the WSJ today ... All about the demise of the BOZO ... So contrarian man!!"

"YEP ... time to buy some 2040 calls !!!"

"Remember the days when you could buy a call option that expired on a month?"

"Yeah ... what ever happened to those days?"

"Holy Crap ... look at that BOZO fly ... its up 25% to .00000098!! WHOA ... !!!"

"Looks like with today's 25% profits I'll be able to buy a loaf of bread! Whew ... maybe even a cupcake too! YAHOOOOOO!!"

"We are two lucky sons of bitches to be able to trade the BOZO like we do with all this insider info!"

Awhile back I used an analogy of being in a fiat avalanche. Nobody really knows their earning power and purchasing power is headed for a cliff until they get a glimpse of the "trees"(a metaphor for gold). So long as we continue to look at values of everything we buy in US Peso terms everything looks stable even the DOW and the NASDAQ and all the ETFs!

Valgold released some drilling results this morning.

http://tinyurl.com/2p9opg

I'm not expert, but while 58.20 g/Tonne sounds impressive, I definitely know that 1.5 meters doesn't make for a lot of material. But then again, thinking in three dimensions, that grade can still extend a long way in 2 directsion. Any thoughts?

Also, Bill mentioned over the weekend the venture exchange potentially taking a serious beating in the coming bear market. I would imagine that beating would be doled out to companies like VAL, WHY, PMI and other juniors talked about here. what strategy are people taking with these companies into the coming year?

My position is small enough I'll probably hold, but doesn't mean it won't hurt watching a beating. But I guess we hold these in hopes of the killer drill results which would pop stock regardless...

korvus,
Instead of the "cycle through" message, do you think there would be value in, while hovering over the symbol, displaying the actual name behind the symbol?

Sometimes I put in lists, and I dont know the name of everything yet.

Just thinking out loud.

geckojb,

Here is my take. The whole sector has been hit. CTSH and INFY both CARA 100) are being hit by a couple of factors.

1. Currency strength. INR has been very strong against USD. It has gone from a low of 48 to about 39 right now.

2. Significant portion of their revenues comes from financials. Many projects will be cancelled or postponed.

Business is still very good there though.

The market seems to think that salary costs are going to eat into margins. Salary growth is about 15% in INR.

Even a Bozo has lawyers...

http://tinyurl.com/2f5zq3

Jeremy Peyer
c/o http:\\www.geocities.com

Re: Objection to Use of BOZOS.COM Domain Name and Use of Clown Face on BozOS Corp. Web Page (Our Ref. HAR USA TC-96/9176)

Dear Mr. Peyer:

We represent Larry Harmon Pictures Corporation ("LHPC") in trademark matters. LHPC is the owner of all rights in the famous clown character "Bozo."

Anyone betting on a bounce this afternoon around 2pm? The Q's won't be happy otherwise... the bottom is pretty deep.

http://tinyurl.com/2bh6u3

Stopped out of POT (110.79) for a small gain. Will be another day for this one.

Note Brazilian stocks (EWZ) negative.

On the watch list: PDA & SDA daily RSI7 <30 now.

Question someone who uses Interactive Broker. I am setting up an account. I am wondering if I am reading fees correctly. Looks like if I but 100 shares of a $50 stock, my IB fee is one dollar and some change. Is that right? Or am I missing something? My fees with Fidelity were $10.95. Huge difference. Thanks for input.

ALOHA!!

Krishna ... My trades on IB have averaged $.002 per share, but I am not trading $50 stock. All you have to do is input a order ticket and then hit "transmit" and it will show the fees. If you hit "transmit" again it will put the trade through.

45,000 people. Happy New Year.

By the way, last month it was reported that condo fee defaults are up 25% in Manhattan. We already see foreclosures up in the outer boroughs.

Those in power aren't the ones in these $1,000,000 1 BR upper east side starter condos in the middle of nowhere (waayyy UES, east of 3rd ave) who now can't pay their fees. These are cheap places to buy in Manhattan, so economic weakness will show up there, first. The real money/power guys live in the co-ops along the park. No problems there.

I wonder when the "fairy tale real estate market in NYC" stories will stop turning up and the "it finally started to happen here" stories will be in every real estate section in every paper and in the "real estate porn" blogs?

To answer my own question, it will be 3 months or so after these Citi layoffs happen and the next 50,000 or so get cut lose from the banks.

These banks seem to like to give out bad news in packs, so I guess this 45K is the shot over the bow.

My own humungous law firm recently doled out massive "off the cuff" one-time bonuses of tens of thousands of dollars to first year associates, who already make close to a quarter million to start. This, while cutting hours for the mailroom guys and laying off secretaries. (That's public info and I learned the bonus details on a legal publication web site, lest anyone think I'm spilling company beans here. Those random bonuses were handed out at several big law firms, because one did it and they all had to match. Insanity.)

Merry Christmas, everyone. Hope you all can hang onto your jobs. Me too.

For what it's worth,

My brother and his family stopped by to visit over the weekend. He is a sales rep for the world's leading chain of automobile auctions.

I asked him how business is doing, to which he replied, "it's a disaster", saying that the tightening of credit standards has alienated used car buyers. He claims the used cars are piling up and prices are coming down.

They are telling him that they expect things to get better by the middle of 2008. I told him not to hold his breath waiting for the turnaround.

This, of course, does not bode well for stocks involved in the used car industry.

Sorry if this story seems obvious but I have high regard for information from the common man and real world experience.

Regards

Thanks Kaimu. My account has not been activated yet, so all I can do is read the web site info. I will try that once I get it set up. Anyone else give me an idea of how much their commissions are with IB? Thanks

Bullhunter,

Thanks for the insight. I will surely put KMX (Carmax) on my watch list.

Interesting. Thanks for the post Bull Hunter

ALOHA !!

ECU SILVER ... Today it sticks out like a sore thumb! Up around 5% on double volume on no news. In the past I have noticed movements like this prior to 43-101 news. If it continues past today then the odds go up ... I mean what do you think the employees in the office and the field are telling relatives and friends on a very positiive 43-101 report? DON'T BUY? Eventually the news will be publically reported. I do know there will be two 43-101s out soon. One for ECU SILVER and one for the JV with GOLDEN TAG.

Bull Hunter,
That's very interesting news in light of the fact that Carmax (KMX) is getting a nice bounce in response to news that Geico recently picked up a stake in the company. Newswires originally erroneously reported that Buffett himself had made the purchase.

Fred,

This is precisely why I try to keep my finger on the economic pulse by talking to the common man and walking around the malls.

I believe what I see, not what I read in the financial press.

Regards

UNG- opening a new position at 39.30...
QID- still haven't seen a big sell-off in the Naz...maybe we just grind lower...AAPL up 2.5%/GOOG + RIMM up >1% at the moment...

Fred,

This is precisely why I try to keep my finger on the economic pulse by talking to the common man and walking around the malls (the best thing I learned from studying Peter Lynch).

I believe what I see, not what I read in the financial press.

Regards

FNM/FRE- anyone interested yet?

Check out FWLT. It recently broke below its 30 MA and the RS is trending down. Looks like a stage 3 top & getting ready for a fall from here.

Check out FWLT. It recently broke below its 30 MA and the RS is trending down. Looks like a stage 3 top & getting ready for a fall from here.

To my eyes, the rally seems to be failing on the hourly downtrend line. The S&P will have to fight through todays highs at 1446 to break that downtrend.

$5bn for Galore? The Canadian politicians tell us to spend our high Loonie offshore, yet now in the first time in its 50 yr history, the Corvette is disallowed as an import from the US. (GM tells Transport Canada that it doesn't meet safety standards. A call to the plant mentions a missing bilingual sticker on the airbag. I suppose that justifies the 50% higher cost for the Canadian made Corvette. Not sure why we have to pay taxes for TC, when they take orders from the automakers). So the casualties are consumers but also projects like Galore that require a lower Loonie.

I see opportunities in lower cost countries for mining. I was told by some Auzzies that drilling is over 1/3 lower than Canada. Even Canadian PEB.V with its Indian project just landed $10m from E&Y India. They tell me costs are so incredibly low.

So it is about risk weighted investment return. The Indian market looks quite resilient so far.

Sanjay Dutt, thank you for your input on INFY. I will be looking to take an intial position sometime soon.

Krishna- I am with IB. I mostly trade options. The cost is .75 per contract. I like IB very much. The platform is easy to work with. I have no problems getting fills even in fast markets. It is true their charting could improve greatly.

TraderGirl. Thanks for the feedback.
I need to learn more about trading options. Can you suggest a good place to learn?
Thanks

kaimu at November 26, 2007 1:05 PM

Always enjoy your posts. I spent a couple of weeks on Maui last Christmas, beautiful, we had a great time and the kids really liked the snorkeling and boogy boarding. Next time I will try to get over to the big island and drop into your flower operation.

Kaimu quote
"... So long as we continue to look at values of everything we buy in US Peso terms everything looks stable even the DOW and the NASDAQ and all the ETFs!...."

I agree totally and as I like charts and TA, it is becoming one of my biggest problems. Bullish / Bearish, breaking out / down, support / resistance, it pretty well just depends on what you wanna see, just plot it in the currency that creates a chart that fits your point of view.

I wish the charting services like Stockcharts had the option of plotting charts in real value rather than various Fiat's. It would certainly make it easier to track your actual "real spendable" portfolio value.

". . . and then you smell a rat."

Bloomberg article on new super SIV:
http://tinyurl.com/2wr3hk

Excerpt from near end of article:
Loomis Sayles & Co. declined to invest after receiving one of 16 invitations for a personal meeting last week with current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said Daniel Fuss, who oversees $22 billion as chief investment officer at the Boston-based firm. The Securities Industries Financial Markets Association trade group extended the invitations, Fuss said.

``It's so nice to get a personal invitation to go to Washington and have a one-hour visit with Ben Bernanke,'' said Fuss, who decided participating wasn't worth the risk to his firm. ``Oh, boy, did I feel important for about 27 seconds, and then you smell a rat.''

craig- maybe you're right->if it closes like last wednesday, will press the short side again- may play out this time without the (holiday cool-off) complications...

UXG holders......

"US Gold will use
DIAGNOS' (TSX VENTURE:ADK) Artificial Intelligence technology to target gold,
silver and copper in north-central Nevada

DIAGNOS inc. ("DIAGNOS" or the "Corporation") (VENTURE TSX: ADK), a
leader in the use of artificial intelligence ("AI") and advanced knowledge
extraction techniques, announced today that US Gold (AMEX/TSX: UXG) will use its
technology on a large land area with the purpose of identify new targets for
gold, silver and copper on its properties of north-central Nevada. The surface
to be analyzed represents approximately 15,000 square kilometres."

Looks Rob McEwen is stepping it up a bit.

ECU Silver

TD Waterhouse had this one as a Speculative Buy on this morning's Action Notes.

Krishna- Trading options can be tricky. I trade them for the leverage. Some books I have read include "Getting Started in Options" by Thomsett and "The Complete Option Player" by Trester. Option pricing is involved but has to do with time and volatility. The CBOE also has a lot of educational information. That would be cboe.com. (Chicago Board of Options Exchange) I feel so inadequate offering even this because it is complicated. Hope this helps a little.

Record High Gold Values Reported by Tanzanian Royalty From RC Drill Program at Kigosi Project in Tanzania

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Canada NewsWire
1:45 p.m. 11/26/2007


VANCOUVER, Nov. 26, 2007 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) -- Trade Symbol:

TSX: TNX

AMEX: TRE

VANCOUVER, Nov. 26 /CNW/ - Tanzanian Royalty is pleased to announce that a Phase 4 Reverse Circulation (RC) drill program has returned record high gold values at the Company's Kigosi Project in Tanzania. In addition, the Company has discovered a seventh gold bearing shoot containing encouraging values within one of two previously established shear zones on the Kigosi property which is located in the prolific Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt.

2nd_ave,craig, HELLO,

wILL YOU HOLD MY HAND!!!!!!!!

Am in @83. FXP but don't want to hold ovenight. Are you in??

LOL !!

Will let you know what I do.

TIA

More unwinding . . . Yen at a 107 handle.

For those who can handle the risk:

http://tinyurl.com/3arg3a

Disclosure: Long TRE

Sold FXP @87.83

Hey Isaiah,
Looks like we dodged a bullet (by missing the close) on Friday, eh!

Jaketh

:^)

Re: Tanzanian Royalty

What a surprise to read of its fine drill results, announced today.

In the past 2 weeks or so, insider James E. Sinclair has purchased nearly 125,000 shares at prices $5.80 - $6.11.

Regards

joey

mg- why don't you take 1/2 off now->very fast move
Bull Hunter/craig- will be downing two in your honor after work->IMO, you guys made the deciding call this morning ;) not over till it's over, but it's over for today...

Quasi:

"It would certainly make it easier to track your actual "real spendable" portfolio value."

I have set up a simple spreadsheet to do that.

Get the exchange rates and calculate your "real spendable" port. val.

eg. The avg. cdn/usd interbank exc rate from Jan.1 to Nov 24 was 1.0883.

1 usd = .9184 cdn 1.0883usd = 1cdn
100000 = 91840 cdn 108330usd = 100000 pv

what does :^) mean?

ALOHA !!

As I have mentioned in the past I am on the front lines of the RON PAUL PRESIDENT 2008 political blitzkreig!

I had to laugh ... here are my comrades in arms here in Hawaii talking about organizing a RON PAUL fundraiser slash media event and what sort of food we should serve.

So we're gonna eat coconuts and listen to RON PAUL quotes about the monetary system ever 1/2 hour. PEOPLE WILL STAMPEDE ... away from us that is!!! HA!!! I love it!!!

What we really need is an open bar and BBQ with RON PAUL competing on DANCING WITH STARS and speaking at the PLAYBOY MANSION!!! Now that would pack em in!!! HOOTERS GIRLS and CHIPPENDALES GUYS IN RON PAUL WET T-SHIRTS ... Thats what voters want!!! Not this monetary dribble that is destroying their financial future! This is ROME baby-y-y-y!!!

READ ON:
This deserves discussion among the group no doubt . . . I can only speak for myself.
Healthy minded people all have a problem with hot dogs though...

The first thought that comes to mind to answer: What's better than HotDogs in your opinion? Fruit
We live in Hawaii . . . there is fruit on trees everywhere . . . hopefully some of the meet-up members have some fruit trees or (I have oranges) or maybe we can get fruit and vegie donations from people or local businesses. The second answer that comes to mind is, "Coconuts". I'd be willing to climb a couple coco trees and bring 50 or so coconuts... I bet we can get some other climbers to chip in and have a couple hundred coconuts to share with people. I'll also be willing to cut them open and have them lined up and ready for people.

At least fruit, vegies, coconuts and the like probably won't offend anyone . . . whereas meat definitely turns some people off, especially the smell of flesh cooking... that's the issue in my opinion. If I smelled hot dogs cooking, I would be disinclined to approach that area . . . I'm sure there are many people who feel the same way.

On Nov 26, 2007, at 9:43 AM, Al Ben wrote:

Hari - Hotdogs are cheap. What's better than HotDogs in your opinion?
----- Original Message -----
From: Hari
To: ronpaul-479@meetup.com
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2007 9:33 AM
Subject: Re: [ronpaul-479] Celebration for a New America

Are hot dogs really necessary?
Seems like it would turn some people (like myself) off.
I'm sure we could do better than hot dogs.

On Nov 25, 2007, at 7:52 PM, Al Ben wrote:

Any significance to the date, Jan 26th?
Have you made some sort of arrangements with the city?
How many hot dogs do you think we will need?
----- Original Message -----
From: Charlie Abel
To: ronpaul-479@meetup.com
Sent: Sunday, November 25, 2007 7:01 PM
Subject: Re: [ronpaul-479] Celebration for a New America

That's a great idea, but I don't have a projector, if anyone has one or knows where we can borrow one, let's do it.
My idea was to read famous bits of Ron Paul speeches to congress every 1/2 hour or so.
I got this idea because I met Will, who offered to donate the services of the bands.
Charlie

Ben Stein on Yahoo Finance recommended financial stocks a few weeks back, saying we were being too gloomy. He's back at it today, at the end of an article he wrote about the virtues of work...
"By the way, let me say it again: I don't pick stocks for the short term, ever. For the very long term, I think the financials are cheap. If you can devote 10 years to waiting patiently, you may well be happy if you dip your toe into the financial services index, the XLF, right now.

The mortgage crunch won't last forever. The commercial paper problems will end. And we'll always need banks. The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates them, and that's where the financials are right now. So maybe buy a few dollars' worth of the XLF, don't look at it for 10 years, and then check in with me in 2017."

golfer

:^)

Happy face

: eyes
^ nose
) mouth

Craig,

I'm not a gambler I'm just tired of seeing everybody crying for a huge Bear market but no one has the courage to say a number to the "right" value for the market, say it the Financial, S&P 500, Dow, what ever.

If someone says anything is inflated it sure has the expertise to say the right value.

What it seems to me is that if we have another y% correction (no matter how much) lots of people will come and say "I said it!". That's why I would like to hear numbers from people...

To me I think Financials drop too much. It could drop more based on fear and panic but not based in fundamentals.

If you disagree with me, first tell me how much does the big bank lost is Market Capitalization since the January 2007. Even if all subprime gets in default which seems pretty obvious they were not, they were already be discounted on big banks capitalization.

Cheers,

What a blood bath.

Off topic, I picked up Stan Weinsteins book, "Secrets for profiting in Bull and Bear markets."
isbn: 1556236832

Awesome read and I highly recommend it for any beginner who wants charts and technical analysis explained very simply.

What's satisfying are the end of chapter quizes and I am happy to report after 8 chapters i am averaging 95% correct.

Isaiah:

Thanks...I am going to have get my grand daughter over here and give me a crash course on this lingo.

Another one for the HB&B badguys of the month award.

Many corporations will do anything to improve their stock price. Instead of going about this the natural way, many are simply buying back their own shares in a way to reduce the supply on the open market. This seems like it would make sense, but the strategy does not always pan out.

One of the worst cases was that of Ambac, which borrowed money to buy back shares right before it collapsed. While the company was buying back its own shares right before the price fell, the CEO and former CEO were able to dump millions of dollars worth of shares just before the collapse.

By Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Isaiah:

Thanks...I am going to have to get my grand daughter over and give me a crash course on this lingo.

Isaiah:

Thanks...I am going to have to get my grand daughter over and give me a crash course on this lingo.

Denny,
For various reasons, I decided earlier this year that Ben Stein is quite insane. It's the only explanation for some of the stuff he says.

I posted a link to a Faux News clip featuring Peter Schiff where Stein called Merrill Lynch an "astonishingly well run company." Twice. This was in August of this year.

He holds Merrill in his own retirement account. That's maybe why he wants everyone to buy banks and wait a decade for some returns.

By the way, Steve Sjuggerude says "the best time to buy something is when it is hated AND BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF RECOVERING." I'd take his investment advice over Ben Stein's any day of the week. Stein was yelling 'buy Merrill' 3 months and a 35% loss in value ago. Thanks, Ben.

Golfer,

To elaborate, what Isaiah is really saying, Believe is "Yippee-Ai-O-Kai-Ay I cleaned up on ultra shorts!"

Telestar3d,

thx for the link, i follow TRE very closely as im a fan of Ms. Sinclair, and have wondered what happened in the past couple hours. i dont get news alters unless i check yahoo or whatever,
but this heading for a nice close, solid african mining company.

Picked up some SSO @80.35

Lugopt -

This is not a subprime problem as Alt-A and even prime loans are experiencing losses. Commercial paper market is shriveling, libor rates are spiking, London has experienced its first bank failure in over 100 years, housing market is in a depression; I could go on.

The point is that Wall Street firms will not acknowledge their losses until they have no choice. Banks are trading so low because no one knows what they are hiding and if the losses will be big enough to wipe out shareholders equity.

Today's meltdown indicates to me that the problems run deep. Listen to the market.

What a sell off

sorry no tiny url but a must read!

snippets:

Paulson and Co fund (no not that Paulson, although i wonder if there is a relation) made 1000% so far THIS YEAR mostly bet against subprime.
said most banks would be insolvent if forced to mark to market
commercial real estate is next.
will be putting profits INTO GOLD AND OTHER PMs!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b6160be-9b80-11dc-8aad-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

jfs,
A few days ago, JeffMathewsIsNotMakingThisUp.com had a great article on buybacks and the damage done. He references the Journal article Mish pulls from. Here's an excerpt:

"After all, today’s story politely leaves out one of the all-time great admissions of regret—ranking right up there with Chamberlain after Munich, business-wise—which came yesterday morning from one of the most aggressive practitioners of the “return value to shareholders” school of balance sheet destruction: Steve Odland, the CEO of Office Depot.

A sober Mr. Odland, formerly hailed as the savior of that once-proud office products retailer following a highly successful stint spent largely buying back stock and occasionally running stores at AutoZone, told Wall Street’s Finest:

"We are very disappointed in our third-quarter results and remain concerned about the economic environment over the next few quarters. We are also very unhappy with our stock price.

Unfortunately, we have cleared the balance sheet of cash, and our operating cash flows declined, so we don't have the opportunity to buy back shares at a time when we believe they are a huge value. [Emphasis added.]"

Specifically, Office Depot “cleared the balance sheet” of $200 million this fiscal year by buying 5.7 million shares at $35 a share.

While that doesn’t sound like much, it came after “clearing the balance sheet” of $971 million in fiscal 2006 by buying 26 million shares at an average price of $37 per share. (Last trade--you don't wanna know.)

Where this leaves Office Depot as a stock, we express no opinion, but management at Target ought to think twice about listening to the barking seals otherwise known as Wall Street’s Finest—the analysts who applaud companies such as Office Depot for giving short-term oriented shareholders short-term rewards such as high-priced stock buybacks without any notion of the kind of painful long-term consequences now being suffered by Office Depot’s shareholders:

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Target Corp., the second-largest U.S. discount chain, posted an unexpected decline in quarterly profit after consumers facing higher mortgage payments and gasoline expenses cut spending. The retailer also said today it will buy as much as $10 billion of its stock, which lost almost a quarter of its value since reaching a record in July….

``It's the right thing to do to leverage up their balance sheet and buy back stock in the face of slowing overall sales growth,'' [emphasis added] said Jeffrey Klinefelter, an analyst at Piper JaffrayCos. in Minneapolis, who recommends investors hold their shares.

I’d like to see Mr. Klinefelter tell that to a room full of Office Depot shareholders, and get out alive, or, at the very least, with his flippers still attached.

Our metaphorical hat goes off to the Wall Street Journal for flagging a timely and important topic...but how they left out the best part of the Office Depot call is beyond us."

http://tinyurl.com/32s2s6

Jaketh

How did you do... I sold a little bit too early...averaged around 41.88...cannot believe it went to 42.49 at one time ...Oooouch!

Geez!
Bailed 10 minutes too early and missed a $2 updraft on FXP...still sweet, though!

Bull Hunter,
I was talking to my brother in law, who is a top shelf mechanic in CT. I was asking if he knew of any decent $2,000 cars (a city car.)

He said no, and that he was seeing not very many used cars come on the market. He said no one wants to buy anything becuase they don't want the debt. He also said people are keeping and fixing cars they would have gotten rid of previously.

Looks like good times for car mechanics ahead.

Isaiah, Jaketh:

I just went to see how the market closed as I wasn't watching it real closely today. It must have been a wild last hour or so.

I wish I could get into "ultra shorts" but my wife says I am too old for them.

Looks like we will finish on the Dow at +100 points lower than the Dow Theory sell signal of 12,846.
Not sure what it means in the chop of ST trading but combined with treasury yields and other looming indicators. IMO,in the LT we're surely looking to trend down.

Panic selling in the U.S. stock market the last hour of trading illustrates the power of the current downtrend. Usually the last of hour trading results in a price gain in the indices versus the 3pm price.

Institutional fund managers must be dumping stocks, as SPX is now negative YTD. Leverage in the financial system being unwound as good positions are being sold to pay for bad positions, hence dollar/yen has moved down to 107.25.

Price risk in the stock market is still very high but time risk is lessening dramatically as the stock market's internal technicals are getting closer to reaching extreme readings. Therefore, it is almost time to put cash to work.

JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

MikeNYC,
Maybe Stein will be proven right that in 2017 financials will be higher than where they are now. They could be double...but that may only make up for the loss someone incurs holding them on the way down! In my mind there is a huge opportunity cost, too, but I am only a guy on the web not a syndicated writer.

I opened a position in SRS (Short Real Estate) today, to add some short exposure to my portfolio. I have a couple of reasons why I saw today as a good entry. First, I saw the daily RSI for SRS pop back above 30, and volume increase. IYR (Dow Jones US Real Estate has had a nice counter trend bear market rally from it's lows, and it's Daily RSI is above 70)... SRS is the anti IYR. Second, with Gold and Oil, heck with all commodities in rally mode pushing into new territory, interest rates (bond rates) will respond to the upside in my opinion. This will further weigh on an industry already in much pain and clearly defined downtrend. In at 80.20. My two cents.

Posted by: Hoosier [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 10, 2007 4:34 PM

Took a good chunk off today to lock in profits at 50% gain. I like to slow dance. ;-)

Thanks to all the commenters and the host today for providing some great perspective.

golfer

you missed a wild ride down the hill today.

ALOHA !!

MikeNYC ... Here in Hilo, Hawaii I am seeing a lot of big gas guzzler SUVs up for sale on the side of the roads. Sign of things to come ...

Isaiah,
I had a bouquet of QID, SDS, FXP, SRS acquired Friday...off-loaded it all starting @ about 3:47....shoulda waited till the bitter end..

rob d,
I've been talking here about playing commercial real estate short for a while now. I think I've posted about it several times.

I've actually been tossing the idea around of seeing if any Cara readers would like to put together a little ad hoc 'study group' to look for particularly good candidates for ways to play the coming drop in commercial real estate.

Find particularly overextended or otherwise vulnerable REITs, ETFs and/or shares to short or buy puts on, study the option pricing, look for lenders that have lots of commercial RE loans outstanding, even perhaps as far as insurers that might specialize in the more vulnerable CRE areas and now face a loss of business. I got no real traction on my posts about playing CRE short, though someone did post a nice list of Google Finance CRE symbols.

You can bet if Paulson is talking about, and they have been for a while, they have all their bets lined up.

The investor confidence index of 74 is the 2nd lowest since Sep-98.

FET is constantly talking about the upcoming recession - I heard nothing positive all day.

Bespoke http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke notes that Consumer Discretionary stocks have the highest average short interest at 9.6% Financials rank second at 6.6%

Breath indicators such as $NAA50R $SPXA50 $NYLOW $NYA50R $BPNYA $NAA50 from
http://www.stockcharts.com
and momentum indicators from
http://www2.barchart.com/momentum.asp (indicators update intraday)
all seem to be showing significant oversold conditions.

All the negativity might be good fuel for a short-term rally.

Hope Isaiah's SSO pick is correct.

TimG (long QLD with select shorts)

Re: BUYOUTS

Forget the companies that used loans for their buybacks and just focus on those that used their cash. Add the total $$$ for those buyouts to the $38B for bonuses that Bill referred to and it boggles the mind.

But fortunately we do not have to worry because heads will roll...oops these companies are going to have use some of their cash/profits/loans to pay out those that are willing to be the "scapegoats."

I can imagine the conversation...Will you resign and publicly take the blame for this mess? ...please...please...we will give you $150 million. You will...we always knew you were a company man.

Whiskey & Gunpowder
November 26, 2007
By Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Prairie Grove, Illinois, U.S.A.

Enjoy, and send any comments to your managing editor here: greg@whiskeyandgunpowder.com

JWibbs

"Therefore, it is almost time to put cash to work."

Not enough blood on the streets yet?

kaimu, that is another thing my b-i-l mentioned - people want the high mileage cars, and he sees lots of SUVs for sale.

Think about how long and hard the Big Three here in the US have been lobbying against and whining about raising CAFE standards. Now they'll want another handout or keep blaming unions after years of building ugly, high-mileage cars nobody wants.

ALOHA !!

Just heard about my first "baby-boomer" go broke story. This is how you underestimate inflation during retirement. I have no plans to retire until I am dead!

My wife's cousin and her husband decided to retire early(65) and buy a big RV for about $100k and just drive around the country like retired people do here in the USA. You've seen the huge RVs towing a Mercedes!!! Like on the sequel to "Meet The Parents". Well they bought the RV and sold their house in Florida and all furniture etc. They lasted for abour a year and are now down to their last $20k of savings with no jobs, no home etc ... jsut a BIG RV!! What killed them was the cost for gas and eating out and RV parks. They hung out with a fast crowd of retired spenders who ate out for every meal and gambled at casinos and did cruises and all sorts of resort stuff! Busy spending their kids inheritance! What now ... WALMART greeter?

More and more stories like that are bound to surface with more regularity. People underestimate the cost to survive! Many a reitree is living off the fumes of Social Security payments just to pay rent and utilities. Forcasting out 20 years can be dangerous!

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
By Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Prairie Grove, Illinois, U.S.A.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Mish's Blog:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

I read it every day. He's great.

golfer,

Not nearly enough...see my 10:35 AM post this morning.

JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

golfer,

Not nearly enough...see my 10:35AM post this morning.

JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Kaimu:

I think your story has very little to do with inflation and everything to do with poor money management.

You say they were "Busy spending their kids inheritance!" Good for them.

My children know that they are going to get whatever my wife and I have left when we die and that "their inheritance" is not part of our spending budget. They also know that if they run into legit finacial or other problems and we can help them we are going to help them out.

JWibbs:

I will re-read it.

I do not think there is enough yet either but I think the real frency has begun.

Whew! I left for a few mins to help the septic tank pumping guy, (a job that can't be exported to China and pays better than Wal-mart greeter, but is the *shits*).

I left after selling all except one long position and kept the ultras on my string.
Pump, pump pump. I return to see my formerly red screen entirely green, and all those indices solid RED. Dow sell signal indeed!

2nd, BH, Isaiah, hope you guys had fun. I feel better knowing I'm not full of it! (my septic that is).

Enjoy!

Kaimu,

I envision by say 2012 there will be big parks full of $100,000 motorhomes which will serve as retirement housing for retired baby boomers. Each on their tiny lot with utiltites. A park store will give credit and the first day of the month, occupants will pour in with their SS checks, paying off their monthly chit and pocket what little change there is. retirement dreams will shatter as millions of boomers will experience a huge reduction of standard of living.

I agree with your earlier comment regarding supply and demand factors for gold. If a global flight to safety occurs, gold may indeed be unavailable. You mentioned miners are the printing press of real money....so true. The role of gold's real price and that of the mining and exploration sector is to meet the extraordinary increase in investment demand that typically follows an era of remarkable credit expansion. I suspect in the end, price will solve the problem of rising extraction costs.

lugopt,

I would be careful about believing that the credit/derivative mess has been deducted from the worth of the big banks. It certainly has not been deducted from the worth of the big brokers. It has simply been left unpriced (as level 3 assets). Note that the arbitrary values often exceed the capitalization:

* Citigroup: Equity base: $128 billion, Level III: $135 billion. Ratio: 105%
* Goldman: $39 billion, Level III: $72 billion. Ratio: 185%.
* Morgan Stanley: $35 billion. Level III: $88 billion. Ratio: 251%.
* Bear Stearns: $13 billion. Level III: $20 billion. Ratio: 154%.
* Merrill Lynch: $42 billion. Level III: $16 billion. Ratio: 38%.

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

If you are not a regular listener to Jeffrey Saut, and honest market commentator like Bill and others, then consider adding Jeffrey to your list of trusted advisors. I hope that you'll take a moment to read Jeffrey's comments. Oddly enough, he is quoting Richard Russell who did a "it's different this time" and went from being bearish to bullish earlier this year.

It's also worth noting that R. Hughes at FSO said that we had a Dow Theory non-confirmation so that was bullish. Gary K is saying that we are in a bear market. We'll know for sure in a few years what sort of market we are in.

I hope that you have been treated kindly.

New York Mike,

Nouriel R. had a good post on CRE collapse a few days back........

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/226654

We're at the line in the sand, or just a little below it//1410. The boys I follow on the domestic mkt are still pondering today's action. They like to use put/call ratio as a critical indicator for a low. Really needs to be above 1.0 for an extreme reading. Here's the indicator that I have used with it:
http://tinyurl.com/yota32
Trix top is a buy on the dip and trix cross above zero is a sell. One is faster to look for divergences. Scale in or scale out is how I react. Currently, hopeful on getting a wider net of parameters to determine green or red lights. I say kudos to those that know when to be optimistic as well as gloomy on this market. Ironic that FDR lied and manipulated with impunity, yet was probably the most loved leader since Washington. At least that has been my read of history.

Bill:

re: your last post...

it appears from the content of the exchanges, just posted, that you might be auditioning for a spot as host of 'financial TV' show.

are you?

ATTN:UXG holders

I take this to be good news. More exposure to more buyers.

'UXG' - (*DJ Philadelphia Stk Exchange To Begin Trading 17 New Options Tues)

TimG

I hope to play the bounce tomorrow with SSO. At the bell it had already started up from where I bought it so that's good.

Tomorrow I will have my finger on the sell triger from the sound of the bell.

Sold my QID today.... maybe I should of held some. If the market rallies somewhat I will be looking to buy more.

You have to be sitting pretty with your QID right now.

Jaketh,

bouquet of QID, SDS, FXP, SRS

You had the mother lode there! If you could of timed the sell for each of those near their high. You would be bouncing off the walls all night with excitement. Great trade!

Craig

I thought you had a funny odor about you near the ringing of the bell today at 4PM.

Holding anything good going into tomorrow?

I read this as very bad news for the USD. I assume it should be good news for gold.

[from www.debka.com -->http://tinyurl.com/2kg8h6]

"December 3, five days after the Annapolis conference, five Persian Gulf oil states are due to meet to discuss critical points in their relations with Washington. One is whether to continue to peg oil prices to the fast-sinking US dollar or adopt a currency basket.

Although the last OPEC conference dismissed Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s demand to detach oil prices from the US dollar, DEBKAfile’s Gulf sources report that Kuwait has already taken that route without waiting for a Gulf or OPEC consensus, while Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates will be next."

Leisa....I read Saut's commments. His reference to "stuff" is commodities? If so, why is he thinking they will sell off? Thanks, slow learner but curious.

lugopt-

"I'm not a gambler I'm just tired of seeing everybody crying for a huge Bear market but no one has the courage to say a number to the "right" value for the market, say it the Financial, S&P 500, Dow, what ever."

target prices are hard to pin down...it's really more like "moving targets" and "target ranges..." new information comes out everyday, right? to throw a number out is, IMO, the same as opening yourself up to being totally wrong...

"To me I think Financials drop too much. It could drop more based on fear and panic but not based in fundamentals."

financials are the main reason i think we continue to go down...until banks and brokers open up those dark corners to the light of day, i don't see how we can possibly hit S&P 1600...if you read Alwaleed bin Talal's comments on his conversation with Chuck Prince before he stepped down: "Is there anything else? Is that everything?" these guys have NO credibility- may as well turn on the crime channel...when we get to the point where the brokers say "I wanna cut a deal," then I think we're ready to go up...JMHO...

moneygenie- so what did you do?

isaiah- see no problem with selling it at the close- made money, right...i think you'll get a chance to buy it all back sooner than you think...

LOL! I went outside about 11:00 PST and didn't come in until after the close. I must say it isn't the most pleasant job, but I was surprised it wasn't the worst and the job security can't be beat.

I still have DUG/QID/DXD and one lonely long Seamus suggested with a 8% div. and a LT chart hard to beat. If it drops to it's 5 year low I'll be down 1% (about $0.25).

Thank You 2nd, that is more or less my take.

1. I don't do targets. My horoscope is more accurate and meaningful. The best I can attempt is to determine a trend, and sometimes that's only for a few minutes. People can argue trend all they want with *their* money, but *My* money see's RED and as it see's more red I will scale into larger short/ultra-short positions. I will still keep a pile of cash for those "oversold" rallies HB&B can manufacture, or until the trend clearly changes. That would require accounting for $100 to $300 Billion levered TEN TIMES to $1 to $3 TRILLION. I won't be holding my breath.

As 2nd knows, there is one thing you can count on....people will be people and you can take that to the bank. See Webster's for Greed.
You don't get to be an HB&B mover and shaker (and they want MORE???) without massive doses of greed. If I made even a fraction of the resources these schmucks command I would be so retired it would make MY head spin! These people are the greediest of the greedy.
The meeting with Ben story should say it all, eh?

2. Fundamentals first and foremost means you can value a company to determine a price or prospective price. How can a company have sound fundamentals if THEY THEMSELVES cannot value liabilities they DON'T carry on their books?

THAT opinion is fundamentally flawed. How can anyone say they are oversold? How can anyone know?
The range of possibilities is endless, but greed will dictate that it be at the top of the bad range. Greed is good.....if you are shorting it.
You can count on greed.

AAMOF, I would almost rather own one of those dot com sock puppets than a bank right about now.

craig- can't be sure, but something tells me you made the right (static) move...if we get a bounce, i don't think it will amount to much...QID at 42 and change is NOT much of a move->into the fifties would be a definitive move...

2nd_ave,

I sold!!! LOL

I will buy it again AM. So this is my plan for the next day or two : I will stare at the screen and watch QID and FXP and DXD, for entry and exits. That is it. I'm a day trader now.

Will require guts and luck. So I'm only playing with small positions, waitng to buy the miners for hold.

Above [November 26, 2007 6:34 PM]]
Leisa post a link to an article by Jeffrey Saut. I found this part very intersting:

Clearly, the various markets are currently grappling with how events play out in the coming year. As the always insightful GaveKal organization recently noted, there are four possible outcomes:

“Scenario 1: The Fed sticks to its assertion that the risks for inflation and growth are now in balance, does not cut rates any further, and the U.S. economy grows past its credit crunch. If this happens, it would be massively bullish for the U.S.$, massively bearish for gold and potentially bearish for Hong Kong and Chinese equities (which are now anticipating more rate cuts). It would also be very bearish for U.S. Treasuries and government bonds around the world. Additionally, we would also most likely see a rotation within the stock markets away from commodity producers and deep cyclicals (which have been leading the market higher for years) toward the more traditional “growth” sectors, such as technology, healthcare, consumer goods, and maybe even Japanese equities.

Scenario 2: The Fed sticks to its guns, does not cut rates, and the U.S. economy really tanks under the weight of the credit crunch. In essence, the U.S. would move into a Japanese-style “deflationary bust.” In this scenario, equities around the world, commodities, and the U.S.$ would collapse, while government bonds would go through the roof.

Scenario 3: The Fed ultimately cut rates, but this fails to rejuvenate the system and get growth going again. This would likely mean stagflation. As such, gold and other commodities would do well, while stocks and the U.S.$ would struggle. Excluding bonds, this is increasingly what the market is pricing in today.

Scenario 4: The Fed ultimately cuts rates, and succeeds in reigniting the economy. This would be good news for equity markets, commodity markets, and the U.S.$ (as world trade and foreign buying of U.S. assets would again expand, increasing the need for U.S.$s). Of course, this scenario would be terrible news for bonds.”

GaveKal concludes by opining that the market is betting on Scenario 3 and thus one has to be concerned that the Fed’s hand could be forced by the market to cut rates.

Thanks Leisa ! ! ! ! ! !

oooops forgot this line:

Cut rates indeed, yet history shows while the first rate cut is impactful, the second and third tend to be less so.

moneygenie- don't forget that part of the daytrading arsenal is *not to trade*...when you can't wait to jump in, advise taking a walk->this should allow impatience (in others) to run its course, and you to pick up the pieces after buyers disappear...(no one knows what will happen overnight, and how bad is it ending the day with a gain)...good luck...

George Soros quote, “Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited."

ISAIAH,

Did you choose your moniker as a reminder to be patient in trades..."let it come to you" as BC would say?

isaiah- pretty good quote..suppose the corollary would be to board the returning train if/as/when the premise is discredited...(i see you've been disembarking at every way station and buying tickets north and south) ;)

Golfer
RE portfolio real values and currency adjustments

Yes the spreadsheet idea is a good one, but I have a couple of systems where I can change my portfolio currency reporting at the push of a button. So for me that is the easiest way.

But what I was talking about was not value in any particular fiat currency, it was value in real world buying power. Something that could be used as a constant reference. Valuing things in any dollars is sort of like knowing how fast you are driving when someone else is continually screwing with your speedometer calibration, ie you know what the dial says but no real reference point to know what it means, you have lost all calibration.

Lets say two guys each buy an once of gold and they are both looking at the chart trendlines, support, resistance, patterns, breakouts, higher-highs, lower-lows etc etc. Now they both bought an ounce of generic gold with a world price set each day, it’s the same for everybody worldwide after exchange.

The chart below shows the technical information available for both of these guys to make decisions on, notice one guy is in the USA and the other in Canada. Notice how the charts look very very different, if I hadn't left the labels on the charts there is no way you could know they were both charts on gold. So they both start of with an ounce of world gold (little bar), in 12 months the USA guy is up big time 30+% and the Canadian guy has been in the hole most of the time and is now up only about 12%.

Big difference in the charts and the gains in the portfolios, but funny thing is when they walk around the world together and barter that little gold bar they are both offered the same real value for it. So what happened to the 30% vs 12% gains, its all the local fiat currency, now as for how this relates to how much buying power you have at the end of the month or at retirement that’s another story for discussion.

Chart for one 12 month one ounce gold investment, note if you don't have a large monitor you will enlarge to view all the text.
http://tinyurl.com/3cjxjg

futures: DOW up 98, SPX up 14, Nasdaq , up 14

Possible reason

RPT-Citi to sell $7.5 bln equity units to Abu Dhabi group
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2643967220071127?rpc=44

jogyp- not seeing this yet on any of the financial sites i follow...so would have to say you broke the news! SPX futures up 14? isaiah's northbound ticket (SSO) just paid off...

2nd,
Check out the Yahoo Finance news for C.I also confirmed the futures on Bloomberg.

I was pondering what to do with the Citi shares I bought around 34-36. I guess I went bottom fishing in the financials a little early and this news might give me a way out. Long MER,C,FNM.(and ETFC too!)

that's right, SPX futes up 16...and no other explanation->should bode well especially for C tomorrow...hang seng/nikkei have recovered most of their losses, no turn-around (yet) in shanghai...mkts are changing on a dime->and closing out flat each day (moneygenie) seems to be only way to get some sleep ;)

lugopt- will always give credit when it's due, and right now it looks like Abu Dhabi has 7.5b riding on your POV, my man...

It's convenient how many news wires that are free didn not pick this up.

Fitch downgrades some assets at Option One (H&R Block) to Rating Watch Negative after market close.

http://tinyurl.com/35m5s6

Their IR team has verbally told me Dec 6th is the next earnings call. No official announcement yet though. HRB has been relatively untouched by the credit circus even though they are prime offenders.

inverse correlation between FXY and all major US indexes?

http://tinyurl.com/3973tz

Quasi,

You raise a very germane issue: the "world value" (true value?) of gold, irrespective of fiat currency pricing. I have been wrestling with this very issue. I wonder if it might be possible somehow to measure a basket of commodities (oil, agricultural products, base metals, etc.) against a "world basket" of fiat currencies (kind of a super index) and rate gold against that "world basket" to derive a consensus value. It's a lot of computation, but process cycles are cheaper than misjudged opportunities!

citi/abu dhabi investment authority

the abu dhabi $7.5 bn notes carry an 11% coupon before conversion into common shares of C.
aside from whether this is desperation from citi or a good long term investment by abu dhabi (or both) does the coupon suggest a 4% return in $ plus a 7% hedge for the further $ depreciation ?

Has anyone published the list of Junior miners that trade in US? I would like to start researching as I wait for prices to come to me.

Right now the only tickers i have on my watch list are wgw, uxg and hl.

Thanks!

ALOHA !!

golfer ... You just summed up why its ALL about inflation. In the long run nobody can "manage" money in a corrupt fiat monetary system. If you save you lose and if you spend you lose! Its a "lose-lose" except for those who never had anything to lose! Sometimes I wonder if I shouldn't just pack it all in and be a bum! I guess thats just not my style!

I admire your determination to leave your kids an inheritance. Some try to and fail. I have been to a number of bankruptcy courts and seen those with the best intentions lose everything due to medical bills at the end of their lives. Then there are some who feel like leaving nothing behind. One of my Grandfathers left behind nothing but "debt"! To each his own ...

Now you are going to tell me they should have spent $100k on gold instead or AAPL stock. But if they wait another ten years to do their RV dream where is the guarantee they can afford it then? By then will the same RV be $300k? Will RVs even be manufactured and what will gas be then? What will a night out on the town cost then? Will the highways even be driveable? Will bridges be safe? Will they even be in good health in ten years or even be alive? Some people choose to live now. It is not for me to judge if they were poor money managers. In the end inflation ruins many a dream.

Here is something to ponder ... Many wealthy people died on the Titanic clutching their gold. They could not even buy a lifeboat! There were none for sale at any price.

johojo November 26, 2007 11:21 PM

Yes it is an interesting subject, would be nice if we had a separate chat room to go off and discuss some of the subjects in depth and come up with some new ideas. With several hundreds of posts per day it becomes difficult here, I just try to throw in an idea and a chart once in a while.

I've considered ideas along your thoughts of baskets of world commodities and currencies but haven't had the time to make it work. I've even considered using bagels as a base of reference but thats about the same as using pesos. What we're really after is a way to plot buying power now and into the future, independent of your local fiat currency. Some day we may get back to a world gold standard, but then governments would probably start changing the mass of an ounce of gold (without telling anybody).

Its getting late and I have an early morning, gotta go. Have a good night everyone.

ALOHA !!

WOW ... I have to say that NOVAGOLD-NG got creamed today down by 53% and it was like a domino effect on some of the juniors like Copper Canyon down 71% and Romios Gold down some 34%.

I have to investigate this deeper. It was due to the suspension of the Galore Creek project. I mean volume was over 20 times greater than average ... over 20mil shares traded. Closing price was $9.48USD, while the previous close was $20.24USD.

This should be a BIG lesson as to "risk" in the mining sector. I know some people who have held NG for many years now. I wonder if they sold? MAN ... LOOK AT THAT CHART!! What a harsh reality for long term holders and the funds that own NG.

I do not own NG, but it might be worth a look unless this was a one horse show!

Hi,

someone wanted to know about Valgold. Very good intercepts. In any scenario for a gold company, look at the long term chart since inception first.

http://tinyurl.com/ypoz5s

The shadow of the Bre-X scandal looms long and large over the junior Canadian golds.

NYUgrad thx for the Fitch downgrade info on Option One and verifying HRB earnings call date. Right now sitting on some Dec HRB puts.

FWIW, I wouldn't consider HL to be a junior.

Quasi's right, it is getting late. Have a good night.

$7.5 bil out of how much total in the U.S.? How about world wide?

Looks like we will get the chance to lower our basis or at least add to short positions again.
There will be more chances. Bounces now are to be shorted.

It took a while to get here, it will take a while to unwind.

From Colin Twiggs today: "The Dow broke through primary support at 12800 (the August 2007 low), signaling the start of a primary down-trend."

"As discussed in Saturday's newsletter, the US economy is at risk of entering a prolonged recession if the public's faith in the security/stability of the banking system is shaken."

"Gold is a safe harbor in times of financial upheaval and I expect the metal to continue its primary up-trend for the foreseeable future. The long-term target is $900."

NYUgrad,
One junior you may want to research is Capital Gold - CGLD.OB - which has a producing gold mine in Mexico. Run by brothers Reid who ran US Gold before Rob McEwen. Not heavily hyped, they just seem to be getting on with the job.

Long CGLD

I was watching BBC News on the Sarkozy visit to China, with the European delegation. Sarkozy was telling it straight to Chinese delegates demanding a free floating currency.

You should have seen the pompous, self-righteous reaction from one Chinese official. What do they expect? That everyone LOVES the Yuan peg? Do the Chinese think they can legislate a currency peg worldwide that nobody wants? Oh, and everybody listen, because "market communism" is the best thing since sliced bread?

They had better hope that nobody trashes the Yuan peg as if it were yesterday's disco fashion. Imo, their "market communism" reverie is about to get a dose of "market realism."

krishnamurtidude

Re: IB

The website list trades as .005 per share with a min. of $1.00.

But note that there is a min. activity fee. One must trade at least $10 per month or be charged the difference up to $10 (i.e. $5 in trades + $5 service charge)

So at a min. you will spend $120 per year on trades.

There is also a $10 real time quote fee. This is waived if you have $30 of trades per month.

Therefore, if you have an account at IB you will spend a min. of $240 per year (min. $10 per month activity/trade comm. fee and $10 per month quote data fee).

ProudPapa -

Good question about strategy with juniors. I think Kaimu answered it well today when he was asked if ETF's wouldn't drain funds from gold stocks.

Yes, he said, they will from the major conventional names. He went on to say that the juniors are the ones who supply the majors with new reserves.

Remember, the major gold producers are not finding reserves (kind of like the oil majors aren't finding "elephant" oil fields). SO, major miners acquire reserves from juniors. NEM recently announced an explicit policy of trying to do more small acquisitions.

Aussieontop has added that juniors with a strong claim to major reserves will be the ones that are most highly valued by traders who target a multiple on the gold price increase.

It seems there are really 3 drivers of value in a junior: "halo effect" from a respected and proven management; the "value chain" from initial prospecting through proven reserves; and the multiple of reserves in the ground times increase in gold prices.

A bunch of us are working on refining and implementing those notions. Pls. everybody, feel free to contribute any ideas or reactions.

cyderman -

I want to add Capital Gold to the draft juniors'list. I find one listing in Canada (CVE:CGC, one in US (CGLD). The former has a mkt cap of $26M, the latter of $134M.

Can you clarify? Are they related?

Re: IB

Data subscriptions are not mandatory. So the minimum looks like $120 a year in activity fees. Many brokers offer free data (eg Scottrade, Fidelity). Fidelity even offers free real time Canadian quotes. I asked about Canadian quotes several times here and did not receive a response, though the question was answered when someone else asked. I suppose patience and persistence are the order of the day.

Jock,
They seem to be one and the same - guess I only knew it as CGLD as I didn't have easy access to Canadian listed stocks until recently.
http://www.capitalgoldcorp.com/
Don't know about the disparity in mkt caps.
Looking forward to your juniors list. Do you have Gold Resources (GORO.ob)as a candidate?

Steven and Novice.
Thanks for the clarification on IB's fees.
I appreciate it. Saves me some time searching. I learn and fell more confident that I understand when I "converse" and get clarity with and from others.
Thanks again

Yes, cyderman, GORO is on the list. If you have others to suggest, pls. fire away. The list is over 100, but completely raw. Doesn't make sense to circulate till the wheat has been separated from the chaff - at least some of it. We're moving as quickly as possible.

From Today's Colin Twiggs Trading Diary:

"The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians."

~ Henry Hazlitt.

Jasper--I don't know any more than you with respect to commodities. However, if we are truly going into a recessionary phase, that is characteristically met with deflation (unless we enter stagflation!) Accordingly, my guess is that commodities will come down. As part of the business cycle (as I understand it--I've no wish to sound emphatic or even knowledgeable), the commodity sector peaks last. The financial sector peaks first. I'm in Bill's camp for a correction within a commodity super cycle--if I understand his position correctly.

Isaiah--I loved your George Soros quote SO MUCH. It explains SO MUCH. I crafted a blog piece around it and gave you credit. Royalty check is in the mail.

About gold juniors.

Next to impossible to ordain that any gold junior is a valuable asset to a major player. How do you know that their desposits are of value to a major miner at the early stage? How do you not know that later they will not encounter serious problems with their deposits? Nova Gold's Galore Creek project is a case in point.

Or, by what circumstance do known gold deposits with a long history of exploration suddenly become attractive to a major miner when they have decided to drop that area long ago? Do they suddenly become attractive because investment bankers like it, not miners? CRU.TO is a case in point.

Its completely irrational to presume your "imaginary betrothed" is in amongst the largest gold mining companies. There are many reasons why a company will have avoided and continue to avoid smaller projects. Politics, gold price, share price, legacy debt, grade consistency, currency -any number of reasons.

People like companies like KRY because it provides a return on share price on occasion, not because its a well run business. Sure, the occasional win like ARU.TO happens. But people sure placed their bets wrong on CJG.V.

Were you able to devine beforehand that the discovery was a large, moderate grade deposit, and that a major mining company will buy it in the case of ARU.TO? Hasn't happened yet. Could anyone say that Northgate (NGX.TO) will ever recover from its problems with its deposits and burdensome debts?

Are you able to divine beforehand that Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM.V) will not experience the same problems as Galore Creek should the $US become chronically firm during a deflation, or perhaps the copper price collapses, or that for instance Centerra Gold (CG.TO) will have straightened out its industrial problems and suddenly they are attractive to Newmont, or that Ivanhoe will almost certainly be bought out by Barrick?

Most people are looking for Newmont or Barrick to consolidate and ignore their hedge books, and exposure to gold derivatives, but yet they are the white knight to produce large funds for acquisitions on a small company. Sure Goldcorp. bought out Glamis, but they are no longer a pure gold play and that merger caused the ouster of Rob McEwen.

The project you invest in has to stand on its own two feet and be a profitable business just like any other company. Your gold junior HAS to have high grade deposits on hand in a politically stable, mining friendly area with sustainable policies, with no exposure to base metals.

Interestig info out on bloomberg.

since 1945 there has been 44 (?) initial 10% corrections. The *average* following correction is 7.8%.

Of the 44 corrections, 11 lead to a bear market and 9 didn't.

And...if I'm picking sides and placing bets....

Goldman Sachs is announcing they are going defensive. Gotta go with the Gold Man, they seem to be on the inside of everything.

That C buy-in for 7.5 billion...for 11%? Are we kidding? This is good? Alright, but what about their dividend? Is it safe?

How does this deal compare to BAC buying into CFC? LOL!

Staples: Per share improvement (engineering) but actual business is down....selling less *computers*.

I thought capital expenditures were supposed to drive tech! And all those people are "investing" in large cap tech? Partying like it's 1999.

C: Is writing off 6.5 billion THIS QUARTER.
http://tinyurl.com/2voege

and the TH's make a big deal of $7.5 bil.?
This is just one of many. I notice BAC is leading the super SIV effort. The mind boggles at the possibilities.

Good morning fellow Caraites. Here are today's U/D's to the Cara 100:

Upgrades:

CVX to Outperform @ Bear Stearns

-------------------------------------------------

Mining Stocks:

NG: Downgraded to Peer Perform @ Bear Stearns - target lowered to $13 @ RBC.

Have a great day!

a

Additional changes for today's racing card:

Late Jockey Change:

Abu Dhabi will now ride Citigroup (formerly from the Cara Stable) in today's first race. :^)

a