ETF's in AZ/DZ using Korvus RSI:

Sell Alert: USO

Distribution Zone: UDN

Buy Alert: RWX, XLY, XLF, UUP

As Bill says you may have to adjust your RSI levels depending on the market you are in. Lower for Bear's and higher for Bull's (I think I have this correct?). If so then I would consider some of the sectors flashing a buy alert to still be out of range due to being in a bear like XLF and XLY. I would revisit these on a RSI level of 20 and in conjunction with another supporting piece of info like a chart pushing back trhough long term resistance.

Your opinions on this and the method I am using are appreciated.

An exploration update from from Yamana today sending shares a bit higher in pre-market.

And Citigroup has downgraded a slew of home builder stocks this morning. Citi is home of the (formerly?) uncritical housing cheerleader Steven Kim.

I would NOT read this as a sign of a bottom. Now that the CDO mess is out of the bag, Kim may have been given more latitude. In any case, his continued bullishness throughout this saga has already completely discredited him as a serious analyst.

Good Morning.......here are your Cara 100 U/D for this morning:

Upgrades:

BA - to Outperform @ Wachovia
AET - to Overweight @ JP Morgan

_________________________________________________

Sorry for the late post. An evening with the Philadelphia Eagles, too much Spatlese and a problem with the coffee maker gave me a late start today.

Have a profitable day, all.

Hmmm... futures have done a rather abrupt about face.

If we don't get a follow through from Friday dubious rally, it could get rather ugly.

he credit crunch and meltdown in bank shares resulting from the subprime mortgage crisis exposed to public view the esoteric world of structured investment vehicles, conduits and other vehicles that had helped make fortunes in more liquid times. As funds have dried up, a strategy has emerged to make the most of bad times: vulture restructuring, whereby a bank such as Goldman Sachs feeds on its own dead flesh to survive. - Henry C K Liu

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK27Dj07.html

Bill:

From your Nov.25th Wrap up:

"Thirty-eight billion dollars will soon be paid out as annual bonuses to officers and directors of HB&B. This is not a piddling amount. Do you think they earned it?...and consider the hundreds of thousands of staff this industry terminated this year, and will have to again next year:

...This is a disaster...and yet they have decided to pay themselves out of shareholder capital a record high $38 billion.

If that isn’t contempt for society, I don’t know what is...

We need to wake up to how far these people have taken us down the road in their quest for power, prestige and perks...

...Society needs better than what these people have given us."

While I strongly believe in the capitalist system these types of decisions by some corporate leaders only gives those that want to destroy the system more ammunition to rile the masses.

I again mention my father's situation back in the late 50's (and MANY MORE like him as I believe you mentioned your father's similar situation) when as an owner of a construction company with some money in the bank and no work continued to pay his workers until he was broke.

The type of Capitalists who are making these decisions on bonuses under the conditions you mention need to remember that the excess profits they are using are the result of the efforts of ALL employees and investors.

I am sure they will be the first to complain if society ever forces government to regulate the way wages, bonuses etc should be distributed... that would put a crimp on their belief that THEY,who don't understand that they put their pants on the same way as everyone else, "should take from the poor to give to the rich."

Oh, how many of those laid off workers didn't have to be laid off at this time?

Oh, how many of those honest, trying to pay off their mortgages people could that $38 billion have helped?

I'm with #2son.

The "rally" isn't shaping up as planned so far.

Financials down. Not good for rallies.
XLE is down, which could help, but it looks like it's taking gold as a passenger.

GDX looks to open lower. Watching for a breakdown here.

EWZ and BHP not looking good either.
When we rally these do too. Doesn't look good for today unless news changes.

golfer, compare your father's noble action to that of Citigroup, which according to a report on CNBC is planning "massive layoffs".

Who in good conscience could accept a bonus knowing that it comes at the expense of a co-worker's job?

afd

Bill, as a "new" member (I've been reading/observing your discourse and community chat for a year), I want to thank you and the community for sharing your thoughts and ideas. I don't want to clutter the space with anything else, when I have something that I feel could be of value to this community I will share it. Gus.

UNG- dec07 nymex up 3.2%...profit-taking on the agenda..

Bill,
In your WIR you mentioned the connection between the USD and Oil. I agree with you that this
relationship is on a lot of investor's radar screen. I posted some charts that you may find interesting. I expect the USD to stop declining by showing its relationship with OIL and Real Interest Rates.

Bill,

The other day I read that because of ETFs like GLD that gold mining stocks will not enjoy the increase in price as they did in previous gold rallies. The reason given is gold owning type ETFs are taking the money now that would of normally gone into these gold mining stocks.

What do you think, any truth to this?

Fellow Americans,

If you read this you will want to go back to bed and crawl under the covers. It is not a pretty picture if he is correct or even partially correct.

NEW BUCHANAN BOOK DECLARES 'END OF AMERICA'

http://tinyurl.com/3x8jat

FXP- adding at the open (total exposure at this point only 30% of normal, however, as i have no real take on mkt direction)..

UNG- off the table at 40.42..

FXP adding here.

I recall Bill opining once that the first hour to hour and a half on Monday especially after a holiday is not very important. I tend to agree. Let's see how things work out a little later.

(Exception of course would be some geo-political market moving event)

Grgold:

Someone's clutter is someone else's gold?

Citi downgraded the home builders from a buy to wait for it wait for it....yes a "hold". Citi is kindly asking you to sit tight and hold your shares of the home builders. If you happen to lose your shirt while holding these nuke bombs just feel comfort in knowing we no longer had a buy on them.

I believe first we would see S&P 500 at 1600 before we would see it at 1300 ( if we would see it at all at these levels).

As everyone seems so bearish does anyone is willing to change with me S&P 500 calls at 1600, for S&P puts at 1300?

Thanks,

Lugopt- it wouldn't be an even trade (for you), but i'll take it ;)

OOOPS! Looks like I lost my way to Bill Cara .com and found tha paramutual window where gamblers want to trade one ticket for another, when no one knows the winner.

There is a difference between having skin in the game and getting one's balls in the way.

It would seem to me that getting hooked on either position would be foolish.

Now, if you come here with some real information and not some childish bet, then I'm all ears.

Bill,

You've opined that going forward that the better gold play will be to buy the commodity rather than the miners. If I remember correctly part of the reason is that the cost of production is going to increase to make mining less profitable.

With rising costs do you expect the miners to produce less? Or, could this play out like the airline industry where carriers are willing to accept smaller margins?

If you expect reduced production, is this part of the case for an extreme rise in the price of the commodity?

Thanks,
Erik P

Looking behind the curtain, I guess did not work as well this time. Bill's commentary echos another set of asset classes that I follow scored for relative strength: cash, bonds,...and yellow stuff are at the top of the list. 11/9 was my first signal for gld...but now to trade the prices for a relatively longer term hold, yikes. Nice to see more mention of etfs, though I have not been following the original discussion. Refreshing to see Bill, as opposed to others, show continuity in what they are thinking. 1450 looks like where the bears will have to give it to the bulls.

lugopt...

Did you buy some of those Jan 1600 calls that were selling for 20.00 at the beginning of this month?...

NOW THEY ARE AT <3.00...That's an 85% HAIRCUT...

I guess now they are a safer bet..:)

Bill:
Love your free market system comment. The only way to make it work is IRON-CLAD rules which the thieves don't like, plus putting someone other than the fox in charge of the hen-house.

The greater problem in today's world is finding people with integrity to run (as opposed to "game") the system. Where does one begin the search? Certainly not New York or Washington; maybe Outer Mongolia.

FNM, short again.
Shorts and ultras returning....
That FXP is looking like a good idea...at this point.

PM's not showing a lot of uummph here either.

2nd, any strength seems to be in the NASD on the large cap techs.

Financials and energy not so strong...

Looks like WE may have overestimated a rally...so far. It's early yet.

Made some $ on BA today. There's a bull market somewhere!

With the U.S. two-year Treasury note yield at 3.10% and the U.S. federal funds rate at 4.50%, two-year investors have priced in a U.S. recession. But the U.S. stock market is only off about 8% from its highs and trying to rally. So which market is correct--a recession priced in by Treasury investors or an economic slowdown priced in by equity investors?

We believe that a U.S. recession is a high probability, even though stocks have not sold off yet in a big way. With stock market technicals still negative, the stock market downtrend is still underway. So we are on high alert for a big slam down in stocks. Usually the move down occurs over a 3-6 week period. If such a move does occur, it will represent the best buying opportunity for stocks since July/Oct 2002.

JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Craig:

Did you see my post yesterday about HEM.TO... Hemisphere GPS relative to farming?

Gotta go with the grown-ups in the bond market.

Hard to not see bond yields and nasty technicals for equities. Still playing both sides to the degree possible.

Shorts, ultras and FXP starting to pay off today.
I'm open to a rally, but I have to trade it the way I see it. Can't fight the tape.

I feel for all the smaller Novagold shareholders today. I was looking at buying Novagold just two weeks ago but, didn't pull the triggger. How is it that senior management weren't aware of this horrible development at Galore Creek at the time when Barrick was making its all cash offer for Novagold recently?

Ah yes, Golfer:
Don't have any personal experience as I'm not a row cropper growing corn/soybeans/wheat. But some of this stuff rubs off when researching all types of ag.
Those guys need to automate as much as possible and GPS systems allow them to operate equipment and multiple operations with far less man power.
With husbandry all set to resistant seed and designer herbicides this system is a no brainer.

The only thing I would watch is competition.

"Is that all you got, chump?"

If this is the best that the bulls can muster after the "great" Black Friday sales, IMHO, they're in for a world of pain.

Bill:

I hear you.

I wasn't raised on the "wrong side of the tracks" I was raised between two sets of tracks. I believe that because of the systems you mention I was able to get an education and have a very successful life..not rich by any means. But I feel that I could be if I wanted to be.

Can someone comment on Cara 100 stock Infosys (INFY). Buy alert triggered as RSI's are 28,23,30. Current P/E is 22. It's approaching a long term trendline going back to April 2005 that provides support in the 37'ish area. Can someone tell me why this stock has been beaten up this bad. Along with MU it's the only Cara 100 stock not related to financial, housing. Any opinions on this one?

Craig:

What type of farming are you in?

INP/india ipath diverged upward from FXI/china on nov 16th. The two countries seem to often be compared with India as having the same growth potential but not as well covered in the media. Country wise, India and Spain in the other part of the world are showing the most resilience.

29% in equities.

geckojb. Another Cara100 to consider is WFMI. Current rsi7 is 27.1

http://tinyurl.com/37dc9p

The url /37dc9p above refers to an article on the Credit Crunch" in the Economist

My wife runs a small nursery with several greenhouses and some open acreage production.
I used to be more involved but there is only so much a person can do, and I like *this*!
I'm into livestock and herding dogs to control livestock which is easier to work into my trading schedule.

"Can someone tell me why this stock has been beaten up this bad."

geckojb,

I'm just a humble music teacher from PA, but I'd guess that because quite of bit of their services are geared toward the banking industry is one major reason for weakness in its stock price.

Regards

Greetings from Ljubljana

I have just published my regular weekly article highlighting some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.

Here is the link to the "words from the wise": http://tinyurl.com/2vlapc

Bull Hunter

What part of PA is the music coming from?

"Is that all you got, chump?"

...this from "just a humble music teacher from PA"?

let's take it down->the contrarian trade today ;)

Does anyone have a resource for the analysis of data related to the amount of money going into 401K's and other investment entities over specific time periods... and relating it to the overall market returns during those periods?

At risk of showing my ignorance... It seems to me...over long periods what happens is...the public is putting more money into the markets, and in general, overall, are they are getting lower returns than should be anticipated.

I believe what is happening is from year to year the market shows little gains...people receive their brokerage statements and they show a little gain on their money...and they are satisfied. Then a coordinated effort to bring the market down is made by the HB&B and the public is fleeced of their hard-earned money in an extreme manner. The public panics and sells at the bottom in fear they may lose all they have saved. This meltdown is not done based on the value of assets but on how the HB&B's are positioned. And depending where the individuals in the public are in that cycle, depends on how bad they get hurt. Then the HB&B reap the rewards.

I realize money can be made owning valuable investments while buying them at a low price but, generally speaking, it just seems to me with the amount of money going into the market from workers in 401K funds, etc. the overall returns for the average investor should be higher over long periods... but it is not since the HB&B are taking their cut off the top...again, over the long term.

I may be totally mistaken on this, missing something in the macro picture and much more ...but any info or viewpoints on this would be appreciated.

Searching back through previous postings, Bill has called INFY one of his favorites after the bear market commences. This might be one to put on your watch list.

citations:

http://www.billcara.com/archives/2006/06/indian_tea_leav.html

ALOHA !!

Isaiah64v4 ... With regards to the GLD and SLV ETFs versus mining companies. Of course funds are being diverted from mining companies. Just remember who supplies GLD and SLV with their gold and silver! Even in the best of times any company, even mining companies and MSFT and GE, will suffer from inflation. Inflation effects companies bottom lines across the board just as inflation effects your bottom line as a consumer. Your paper money buys less so manufacturers produce less ... Its still supply and demand, except where "real money" comes into play when a failing economy and a failed monetary system meet up head-to-head. Thats when the demand side kicks into overdrive PLUS!! Supply will not be able to turn on a dime like demand will. Once the average US citizen wakes up to the "real value" of a US Peso IOU then GLD and SLV will become "barbarous relics" ... Think about it. When you sell GLD or SLV what do you get? Hyper-depreciating paper! Companies like GOLDMONEY will be in the same boat as GLD and SLV. Only refiners and mints will have the best chance to survive. The Perth Mint comes to mind. It is being supplied by one of the most resource rich countries in the World with the least country risk ... Australia. To be even more specific the State of Western Australia. The two best mining states in the USA are Alaska and Nevada yet the land mass of just Western Australia is like 3 times the size of Alaska and Nevada combined.

Imagine your typical investor coming to their broker at Merrill and asking ... "I want to put some of my portfolio into gold. What should I do?" Naturally the broker will say buy GLD since it is the "Wall Street" way to advise holding paper. Deciphering and valuing mining companies is not easy and any time your stock price depends on holes drilled into the ground the risk factor is high. You learned all about the US Congress and disecting frogs and sex in high school what did you learn about money and geology and mining in high school? Simple fact is that most Americans have no idea about what real money is and were never taught. If they did then GLD and SLV would not exist today. If a US investor demands to buy into a gold miner then the broker will say two companies ... Barrick and Newmont. The phrase "junior explorer" will never even come up in the conversation. A friend of mine in Las Vegas proved that point recently when he went to his broker at AG Edwards asking about gold and mining companies. YEP ... GLD and Barrick! Another phrase you won't hear until much later in the game is "micro mining". Ask your broker about that if you want a good eye glazing blank stare!

The problems with the ETFs that are depending on an ample supply of gold and silver to "buy" as the spot prices rise is that the supply won't be there and when that happens and you start to see a divergence in the spot price(POG) and GLD you will know the jig is up. At that point GLD and SLV will restate their business model and start buying futures as their purchases of the actual metals falls off a cliff. Then they become nothing more than paper which is what they have been all along! The rush into mining and junior explorers will be staggering on that day. Mining companies are the printing presses of "real money" and junior explorers supply the miners. It is that simple and there is no way around that fact ... PERIOD!

Isaiah,

I'm in the heart of Amish Country, Lancaster County, PA.

Regards

Craig:

Neat.

Isn't this technology something....used to have to wait for the Saturday paper to get all that data on the CLOSING price...how long to get a company's financial statement/report to do some DD...draw all those charts....

People who do not understand the "buy and hold" style do not realize that under those conditions that was the only game in town for the vast majority of investors. (Some did day trade then but you had to go downtown to an office and watch the ticker tape and do your thing.)

It still is if you really think about it...a hold of a year back then might be a week today, a few seconds??

Now you can sit in your room, do research, blog and if you want a break watch your dog do the work you used to do....only in ?????

KRY---Not a good day for this!

KRY - Must be something to do with political instability? Can't see anything else...

Anyone looking at CGS.TO yet? How about Etrade?

Is anyone playing the buyout of BCE, CBH, or any others? There seems to be a good spread between the current price & buyout prices of these companies.

Tax Loss Selling

Question - is it too early to start looking for tax loss selling candidates? I've got a few small caps I am looking at purchasing and a number of them have had fairly strong downward moves the last couple of weeks and I'm not sure if I should jump in now or wait a few more weeks and hope to get even cheaper.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

craig- managing risk and taking 1/2 of QID/DUG/FXP off...still no real take on mkt direction...

Kaimu

Thanks for the post..

So what you are saying is, when gold becomes more scarce and the ETFs cannot easily obtain it, then the money that once was flowing into the gold ETFs will start to flow into the miners like it had before in past bull rallies.

Is that correct?

Bull Hunter,

South of Pittsburgh.

2nd,
I'm still pointing negative but took FXP profits, BA, and covered my FNM short with a profit.

Still in a half position of DUG/QID/DXD, would add on a good pullback/general mkt strength if it occurs.

This looks just like it did before Thanksgiving, no real change in my view so far.

What about Nova Gold (NG), down over 40%, my God!
Is this right?

KRY:
I don't think it is a political instability issue today. It is the fact that the Vens are placing all of their efforts on the Dec. 3rd vote. Mining permits take a back seat unless Chavez wants to pull it out of his hat for miner votes. 2.50 is support anyway and it is Monday. A favorite day for running the stops.

Sen. Lott resigning...."time to do something else". You mean like avoid an embarrassing election once you and your party have ruined the nation?

Has everyone noticed how the dogs are trying to bury Ron Paul? The only real Republican left breathing. Funny, as a life-long Dem I can't think of a better candidate.

I'm done with parties...as Bill says, they are puppets on the same string. I'll take loyalty to country and common sense over party anyday.

ALOHA !!

Isaiah64v4 ... YES ... Actually it goes beyond just the ETFs. What happens when coin shop supplies and even EBay supplies dry up. See I do not think Americans, except the few here and at other GOLD websites have been hoarding gold, so there will not be any selling by the public other than gold rings and jewelry and such in order to pay bills. Most Americans don't own GLD but they have plenty of MSFT and C in their 401ks or pensions. Even fewer actually have ever seen a Canadian Maple Leaf coin! In essence there is no real demand yet in America ... We are still mesmerized by the paper and the US Peso.

My friend and I are were just chuckling about what the new global one currency name will be. Like the Euro and the Amero we thought up a good name for a World currency ... the BOZO!! That sums up my opinion of all fiat money! I am biased that way ...

Re. Prieur

This indeed is a small world. I'm also from Ljubljana. Enjoyed reading your 'Words'...

Kaimu,

I see your point about folks here on the main land no knowing the time of day when it comes to the real value of gold as a means to protect their wealth.

Not a bad name for the World currrency...BOZO!
I like it.

Just like Kaimu to improve on "Looney", the former perfect fiat currency name.
The Bozo makes sense. We have clowns running everything else.

"Bozo, Bozo, always falls, never gains..."

I put the url to the article on the Credit Crunch for a number of reasons. I thought it could be interst, provide some backgroud info, give some insight etc.

It also pertained to a position I took in a Canadian company a number of weeks ago for a long term play (1 to 3 yrs) with the intent of increasing my postion along the way barring any major disaster.

Well, on Nov 14 it had a high of 1.75 and closed at 1.68...opens on a GAP DOWN on Nov. 15th, hits a low of .47 and closes at .50.

What happened?....like most companies they had bank credit backing which had always been renewed at regular intervals...but not this time...CREDIT CRUNCH

We have a company with a backlog of orders, looking for more workers but now facing bankrupcy by the end of the month.

My initial reaction was this could be great as my gut feeling (helped by what I thought was good DD)told me that there was no way that this company was going to be allowed to go under.
I make up my mind that I will watch the trades over the next day or two before I make a move to buy more or sell. It comes off the bottom..not a bear trap but off the bottom.

Nov. 23rd...a $40 million Private Placement from money in the UK is being worked out.

Yes there is a Credit Crunch in many areas of the economy as the article points out and it may get worse but the fact that this company was able to raise $40 million in a relatively short period of time shows that there is still private money out there that is being used to invest in corporations.

Now, my biggest problem...do I wait for this AZ/DZ/RSI/MACD system that I have been doing my best to learn from all of you involved in this blog to give me the buy or sell signal or do I????

Bull Hunter, you are a music teacher...do you know the song that asked: "Do you wanna dance..."

Seabridge [SA] is getting pounded

Anyone know why?

Hammer "Does anyone have a resource for the analysis of data related to the amount of money going into 401K's and other investment entities..."

The following is a site that posts weekend fund inflows and outflows. I don't see free historical info, though... it would probably worth tracking the data in Excel over time.

AMG Data Services
Independent Data on Fund Flows & Holdings
http://www.amgdata.com/

bb - I think it is too early to buy into tax loss selling. The year-end rally may still occur and I'm sure investors are still hoping their stock will recover before year end - it's hard to take a 50% or more loss until the last possible minute. Once they figure out their stock is dead, they will sell in later December.

I played GM in 2005 (3-yr chart). There was significant selling in Dec 2005 as investors bailed to lock in their loss for the 2005 tax year. There was a little more selling the first trading day of 2006 as a few investors choose to take their loss in 2006, then GM rose 10% in 5 days.

Although Kirk Kerkorian was manipulating GM by pretending he was going to make a big investment and turn GM around, I still think much of price effect was due to tax loss selling and possibly share repurchase after the 30-day wash-sale period expired.

That's my 2 cents (about all it's worth)

Isaiah,
For miners you must monitor XAU/GDX and keep the other miners on your watchlist.

Sectors tend to move together. If one miner like NG reports bad news all the miners tend to tank in sympathy, esp when it's all about expenses and margins.

This is what will ultimately make bullion run higher. Gold moves higher, but mining it costs more and more, putting more miners in trouble, limiting supply and driving gold higher on both supply and currency issues.

Prieur/Alexx

Re: Ljubjana

I haven't been to Ljubljana yet, but a few years back when I was living in Ferrara, Italy, I had the chance to take a few days off and head over to Croatia (by way of Slovenia). We spent a night in Trieste (Italy) and then crossed to border through Slovenia to Rijecka (Croatia). From there we transferred buses and headed to Krk (Croatia) including a trip on what I was told is the world's largest concrete bridge!

We had a great weekend in Krk, walking along the cobblestone streets and walking up on the pier. I also remember having a cocktail in a bar that was entirely dedicated to Humphrey Bogart - how could I forget that! I surely can't wait to make it back for a trek along the coast (and to check out Slovenia/Ljubjana and the eastern Alps)!

Craig,

"If one miner like NG reports bad news all the miners tend to tank in sympathy, esp when it's all about expenses and margins.

This is what will ultimately make bullion run higher."

Good point!

Bull Hunter, you are a music teacher...do you know the song that asked: "Do you wanna dance..."

Sure do, golfer, but I like the video that Ron posted on his blog, "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet". :^)

Regards

Thanks TimG...Looks like a great resource.

ALOHA !!

What I find amazing is that these "bozos" that trade the FOREX will be happy to trade the USDX down to .00000000000001!!!

My friend and I were laughing about how floor traders and brokers and CNBC would be talking under that scenario.

"Hey the Bozo lost 70% yesterday and its down 10% today!!! I think we're in for a rally here!"

"Oh Yeah ... I think support level here at .0000008 will hold! Did you see the article on the cover of the WSJ today ... All about the demise of the BOZO ... So contrarian man!!"

"YEP ... time to buy some 2040 calls !!!"

"Remember the days when you could buy a call option that expired on a month?"

"Yeah ... what ever happened to those days?"

"Holy Crap ... look at that BOZO fly ... its up 25% to .00000098!! WHOA ... !!!"

"Looks like with today's 25% profits I'll be able to buy a loaf of bread! Whew ... maybe even a cupcake too! YAHOOOOOO!!"

"We are two lucky sons of bitches to be able to trade the BOZO like we do with all this insider info!"

Awhile back I used an analogy of being in a fiat avalanche. Nobody really knows their earning power and purchasing power is headed for a cliff until they get a glimpse of the "trees"(a metaphor for gold). So long as we continue to look at values of everything we buy in US Peso terms everything looks stable even the DOW and the NASDAQ and all the ETFs!

Valgold released some drilling results this morning.

http://tinyurl.com/2p9opg

I'm not expert, but while 58.20 g/Tonne sounds impressive, I definitely know that 1.5 meters doesn't make for a lot of material. But then again, thinking in three dimensions, that grade can still extend a long way in 2 directsion. Any thoughts?

Also, Bill mentioned over the weekend the venture exchange potentially taking a serious beating in the coming bear market. I would imagine that beating would be doled out to companies like VAL, WHY, PMI and other juniors talked about here. what strategy are people taking with these companies into the coming year?

My position is small enough I'll probably hold, but doesn't mean it won't hurt watching a beating. But I guess we hold these in hopes of the killer drill results which would pop stock regardless...

korvus,
Instead of the "cycle through" message, do you think there would be value in, while hovering over the symbol, displaying the actual name behind the symbol?

Sometimes I put in lists, and I dont know the name of everything yet.

Just thinking out loud.

geckojb,

Here is my take. The whole sector has been hit. CTSH and INFY both CARA 100) are being hit by a couple of factors.

1. Currency strength. INR has been very strong against USD. It has gone from a low of 48 to about 39 right now.

2. Significant portion of their revenues comes from financials. Many projects will be cancelled or postponed.

Business is still very good there though.

The market seems to think that salary costs are going to eat into margins. Salary growth is about 15% in INR.

Even a Bozo has lawyers...

http://tinyurl.com/2f5zq3

Jeremy Peyer
c/o http:\\www.geocities.com

Re: Objection to Use of BOZOS.COM Domain Name and Use of Clown Face on BozOS Corp. Web Page (Our Ref. HAR USA TC-96/9176)

Dear Mr. Peyer:

We represent Larry Harmon Pictures Corporation ("LHPC") in trademark matters. LHPC is the owner of all rights in the famous clown character "Bozo."

Anyone betting on a bounce this afternoon around 2pm? The Q's won't be happy otherwise... the bottom is pretty deep.

http://tinyurl.com/2bh6u3

Stopped out of POT (110.79) for a small gain. Will be another day for this one.

Note Brazilian stocks (EWZ) negative.

On the watch list: PDA & SDA daily RSI7 <30 now.

Question someone who uses Interactive Broker. I am setting up an account. I am wondering if I am reading fees correctly. Looks like if I but 100 shares of a $50 stock, my IB fee is one dollar and some change. Is that right? Or am I missing something? My fees with Fidelity were $10.95. Huge difference. Thanks for input.

ALOHA!!

Krishna ... My trades on IB have averaged $.002 per share, but I am not trading $50 stock. All you have to do is input a order ticket and then hit "transmit" and it will show the fees. If you hit "transmit" again it will put the trade through.

45,000 people. Happy New Year.

By the way, last month it was reported that condo fee defaults are up 25% in Manhattan. We already see foreclosures up in the outer boroughs.

Those in power aren't the ones in these $1,000,000 1 BR upper east side starter condos in the middle of nowhere (waayyy UES, east of 3rd ave) who now can't pay their fees. These are cheap places to buy in Manhattan, so economic weakness will show up there, first. The real money/power guys live in the co-ops along the park. No problems there.

I wonder when the "fairy tale real estate market in NYC" stories will stop turning up and the "it finally started to happen here" stories will be in every real estate section in every paper and in the "real estate porn" blogs?

To answer my own question, it will be 3 months or so after these Citi layoffs happen and the next 50,000 or so get cut lose from the banks.

These banks seem to like to give out bad news in packs, so I guess this 45K is the shot over the bow.

My own humungous law firm recently doled out massive "off the cuff" one-time bonuses of tens of thousands of dollars to first year associates, who already make close to a quarter million to start. This, while cutting hours for the mailroom guys and laying off secretaries. (That's public info and I learned the bonus details on a legal publication web site, lest anyone think I'm spilling company beans here. Those random bonuses were handed out at several big law firms, because one did it and they all had to match. Insanity.)

Merry Christmas, everyone. Hope you all can hang onto your jobs. Me too.

For what it's worth,

My brother and his family stopped by to visit over the weekend. He is a sales rep for the world's leading chain of automobile auctions.

I asked him how business is doing, to which he replied, "it's a disaster", saying that the tightening of credit standards has alienated used car buyers. He claims the used cars are piling up and prices are coming down.

They are telling him that they expect things to get better by the middle of 2008. I told him not to hold his breath waiting for the turnaround.

This, of course, does not bode well for stocks involved in the used car industry.

Sorry if this story seems obvious but I have high regard for information from the common man and real world experience.

Regards

Thanks Kaimu. My account has not been activated yet, so all I can do is read the web site info. I will try that once I get it set up. Anyone else give me an idea of how much their commissions are with IB? Thanks

Bullhunter,

Thanks for the insight. I will surely put KMX (Carmax) on my watch list.

Interesting. Thanks for the post Bull Hunter

ALOHA !!

ECU SILVER ... Today it sticks out like a sore thumb! Up around 5% on double volume on no news. In the past I have noticed movements like this prior to 43-101 news. If it continues past today then the odds go up ... I mean what do you think the employees in the office and the field are telling relatives and friends on a very positiive 43-101 report? DON'T BUY? Eventually the news will be publically reported. I do know there will be two 43-101s out soon. One for ECU SILVER and one for the JV with GOLDEN TAG.

Bull Hunter,
That's very interesting news in light of the fact that Carmax (KMX) is getting a nice bounce in response to news that Geico recently picked up a stake in the company. Newswires originally erroneously reported that Buffett himself had made the purchase.

Fred,

This is precisely why I try to keep my finger on the economic pulse by talking to the common man and walking around the malls.

I believe what I see, not what I read in the financial press.

Regards

UNG- opening a new position at 39.30...
QID- still haven't seen a big sell-off in the Naz...maybe we just grind lower...AAPL up 2.5%/GOOG + RIMM up >1% at the moment...

Fred,

This is precisely why I try to keep my finger on the economic pulse by talking to the common man and walking around the malls (the best thing I learned from studying Peter Lynch).

I believe what I see, not what I read in the financial press.

Regards

FNM/FRE- anyone interested yet?

Check out FWLT. It recently broke below its 30 MA and the RS is trending down. Looks like a stage 3 top & getting ready for a fall from here.

Check out FWLT. It recently broke below its 30 MA and the RS is trending down. Looks like a stage 3 top & getting ready for a fall from here.

To my eyes, the rally seems to be failing on the hourly downtrend line. The S&P will have to fight through todays highs at 1446 to break that downtrend.

$5bn for Galore? The Canadian politicians tell us to spend our high Loonie offshore, yet now in the first time in its 50 yr history, the Corvette is disallowed as an import from the US. (GM tells Transport Canada that it doesn't meet safety standards. A call to the plant mentions a missing bilingual sticker on the airbag. I suppose that justifies the 50% higher cost for the Canadian made Corvette. Not sure why we have to pay taxes for TC, when they take orders from the automakers). So the casualties are consumers but also projects like Galore that require a lower Loonie.

I see opportunities in lower cost countries for mining. I was told by some Auzzies that drilling is over 1/3 lower than Canada. Even Canadian PEB.V with its Indian project just landed $10m from E&Y India. They tell me costs are so incredibly low.

So it is about risk weighted investment return. The Indian market looks quite resilient so far.

Sanjay Dutt, thank you for your input on INFY. I will be looking to take an intial position sometime soon.

Krishna- I am with IB. I mostly trade options. The cost is .75 per contract. I like IB very much. The platform is easy to work with. I have no problems getting fills even in fast markets. It is true their charting could improve greatly.

TraderGirl. Thanks for the feedback.
I need to learn more about trading options. Can you suggest a good place to learn?
Thanks

kaimu at November 26, 2007 1:05 PM

Always enjoy your posts. I spent a couple of weeks on Maui last Christmas, beautiful, we had a great time and the kids really liked the snorkeling and boogy boarding. Next time I will try to get over to the big island and drop into your flower operation.

Kaimu quote
"... So long as we continue to look at values of everything we buy in US Peso terms everything looks stable even the DOW and the NASDAQ and all the ETFs!...."

I agree totally and as I like charts and TA, it is becoming one of my biggest problems. Bullish / Bearish, breaking out / down, support / resistance, it pretty well just depends on what you wanna see, just plot it in the currency that creates a chart that fits your point of view.

I wish the charting services like Stockcharts had the option of plotting charts in real value rather than various Fiat's. It would certainly make it easier to track your actual "real spendable" portfolio value.

". . . and then you smell a rat."

Bloomberg article on new super SIV:
http://tinyurl.com/2wr3hk

Excerpt from near end of article:
Loomis Sayles & Co. declined to invest after receiving one of 16 invitations for a personal meeting last week with current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said Daniel Fuss, who oversees $22 billion as chief investment officer at the Boston-based firm. The Securities Industries Financial Markets Association trade group extended the invitations, Fuss said.

``It's so nice to get a personal invitation to go to Washington and have a one-hour visit with Ben Bernanke,'' said Fuss, who decided participating wasn't worth the risk to his firm. ``Oh, boy, did I feel important for about 27 seconds, and then you smell a rat.''

craig- maybe you're right->if it closes like last wednesday, will press the short side again- may play out this time without the (holiday cool-off) complications...

UXG holders......

"US Gold will use
DIAGNOS' (TSX VENTURE:ADK) Artificial Intelligence technology to target gold,
silver and copper in north-central Nevada

DIAGNOS inc. ("DIAGNOS" or the "Corporation") (VENTURE TSX: ADK), a
leader in the use of artificial intelligence ("AI") and advanced knowledge
extraction techniques, announced today that US Gold (AMEX/TSX: UXG) will use its
technology on a large land area with the purpose of identify new targets for
gold, silver and copper on its properties of north-central Nevada. The surface
to be analyzed represents approximately 15,000 square kilometres."

Looks Rob McEwen is stepping it up a bit.

ECU Silver

TD Waterhouse had this one as a Speculative Buy on this morning's Action Notes.

Krishna- Trading options can be tricky. I trade them for the leverage. Some books I have read include "Getting Started in Options" by Thomsett and "The Complete Option Player" by Trester. Option pricing is involved but has to do with time and volatility. The CBOE also has a lot of educational information. That would be cboe.com. (Chicago Board of Options Exchange) I feel so inadequate offering even this because it is complicated. Hope this helps a little.

Record High Gold Values Reported by Tanzanian Royalty From RC Drill Program at Kigosi Project in Tanzania

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Canada NewsWire
1:45 p.m. 11/26/2007


VANCOUVER, Nov. 26, 2007 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) -- Trade Symbol:

TSX: TNX

AMEX: TRE

VANCOUVER, Nov. 26 /CNW/ - Tanzanian Royalty is pleased to announce that a Phase 4 Reverse Circulation (RC) drill program has returned record high gold values at the Company's Kigosi Project in Tanzania. In addition, the Company has discovered a seventh gold bearing shoot containing encouraging values within one of two previously established shear zones on the Kigosi property which is located in the prolific Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt.

2nd_ave,craig, HELLO,

wILL YOU HOLD MY HAND!!!!!!!!

Am in @83. FXP but don't want to hold ovenight. Are you in??

LOL !!

Will let you know what I do.

TIA

More unwinding . . . Yen at a 107 handle.

For those who can handle the risk:

http://tinyurl.com/3arg3a

Disclosure: Long TRE

Sold FXP @87.83

Hey Isaiah,
Looks like we dodged a bullet (by missing the close) on Friday, eh!

Jaketh

:^)

Re: Tanzanian Royalty

What a surprise to read of its fine drill results, announced today.

In the past 2 weeks or so, insider James E. Sinclair has purchased nearly 125,000 shares at prices $5.80 - $6.11.

Regards

joey

mg- why don't you take 1/2 off now->very fast move
Bull Hunter/craig- will be downing two in your honor after work->IMO, you guys made the deciding call this morning ;) not over till it's over, but it's over for today...

Quasi:

"It would certainly make it easier to track your actual "real spendable" portfolio value."

I have set up a simple spreadsheet to do that.

Get the exchange rates and calculate your "real spendable" port. val.

eg. The avg. cdn/usd interbank exc rate from Jan.1 to Nov 24 was 1.0883.

1 usd = .9184 cdn 1.0883usd = 1cdn
100000 = 91840 cdn 108330usd = 100000 pv

what does :^) mean?

ALOHA !!

As I have mentioned in the past I am on the front lines of the RON PAUL PRESIDENT 2008 political blitzkreig!

I had to laugh ... here are my comrades in arms here in Hawaii talking about organizing a RON PAUL fundraiser slash media event and what sort of food we should serve.

So we're gonna eat coconuts and listen to RON PAUL quotes about the monetary system ever 1/2 hour. PEOPLE WILL STAMPEDE ... away from us that is!!! HA!!! I love it!!!

What we really need is an open bar and BBQ with RON PAUL competing on DANCING WITH STARS and speaking at the PLAYBOY MANSION!!! Now that would pack em in!!! HOOTERS GIRLS and CHIPPENDALES GUYS IN RON PAUL WET T-SHIRTS ... Thats what voters want!!! Not this monetary dribble that is destroying their financial future! This is ROME baby-y-y-y!!!

READ ON:
This deserves discussion among the group no doubt . . . I can only speak for myself.
Healthy minded people all have a problem with hot dogs though...

The first thought that comes to mind to answer: What's better than HotDogs in your opinion? Fruit
We live in Hawaii . . . there is fruit on trees everywhere . . . hopefully some of the meet-up members have some fruit trees or (I have oranges) or maybe we can get fruit and vegie donations from people or local businesses. The second answer that comes to mind is, "Coconuts". I'd be willing to climb a couple coco trees and bring 50 or so coconuts... I bet we can get some other climbers to chip in and have a couple hundred coconuts to share with people. I'll also be willing to cut them open and have them lined up and ready for people.

At least fruit, vegies, coconuts and the like probably won't offend anyone . . . whereas meat definitely turns some people off, especially the smell of flesh cooking... that's the issue in my opinion. If I smelled hot dogs cooking, I would be disinclined to approach that area . . . I'm sure there are many people who feel the same way.

On Nov 26, 2007, at 9:43 AM, Al Ben wrote:

Hari - Hotdogs are cheap. What's better than HotDogs in your opinion?
----- Original Message -----
From: Hari
To: ronpaul-479@meetup.com
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2007 9:33 AM
Subject: Re: [ronpaul-479] Celebration for a New America

Are hot dogs really necessary?
Seems like it would turn some people (like myself) off.
I'm sure we could do better than hot dogs.

On Nov 25, 2007, at 7:52 PM, Al Ben wrote:

Any significance to the date, Jan 26th?
Have you made some sort of arrangements with the city?
How many hot dogs do you think we will need?
----- Original Message -----
From: Charlie Abel
To: ronpaul-479@meetup.com
Sent: Sunday, November 25, 2007 7:01 PM
Subject: Re: [ronpaul-479] Celebration for a New America

That's a great idea, but I don't have a projector, if anyone has one or knows where we can borrow one, let's do it.
My idea was to read famous bits of Ron Paul speeches to congress every 1/2 hour or so.
I got this idea because I met Will, who offered to donate the services of the bands.
Charlie

Ben Stein on Yahoo Finance recommended financial stocks a few weeks back, saying we were being too gloomy. He's back at it today, at the end of an article he wrote about the virtues of work...
"By the way, let me say it again: I don't pick stocks for the short term, ever. For the very long term, I think the financials are cheap. If you can devote 10 years to waiting patiently, you may well be happy if you dip your toe into the financial services index, the XLF, right now.

The mortgage crunch won't last forever. The commercial paper problems will end. And we'll always need banks. The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates them, and that's where the financials are right now. So maybe buy a few dollars' worth of the XLF, don't look at it for 10 years, and then check in with me in 2017."

golfer

:^)

Happy face

: eyes
^ nose
) mouth

Craig,

I'm not a gambler I'm just tired of seeing everybody crying for a huge Bear market but no one has the courage to say a number to the "right" value for the market, say it the Financial, S&P 500, Dow, what ever.

If someone says anything is inflated it sure has the expertise to say the right value.

What it seems to me is that if we have another y% correction (no matter how much) lots of people will come and say "I said it!". That's why I would like to hear numbers from people...

To me I think Financials drop too much. It could drop more based on fear and panic but not based in fundamentals.

If you disagree with me, first tell me how much does the big bank lost is Market Capitalization since the January 2007. Even if all subprime gets in default which seems pretty obvious they were not, they were already be discounted on big banks capitalization.

Cheers,

What a blood bath.

Off topic, I picked up Stan Weinsteins book, "Secrets for profiting in Bull and Bear markets."
isbn: 1556236832

Awesome read and I highly recommend it for any beginner who wants charts and technical analysis explained very simply.

What's satisfying are the end of chapter quizes and I am happy to report after 8 chapters i am averaging 95% correct.

Isaiah:

Thanks...I am going to have get my grand daughter over here and give me a crash course on this lingo.

Another one for the HB&B badguys of the month award.

Many corporations will do anything to improve their stock price. Instead of going about this the natural way, many are simply buying back their own shares in a way to reduce the supply on the open market. This seems like it would make sense, but the strategy does not always pan out.

One of the worst cases was that of Ambac, which borrowed money to buy back shares right before it collapsed. While the company was buying back its own shares right before the price fell, the CEO and former CEO were able to dump millions of dollars worth of shares just before the collapse.

By Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Isaiah:

Thanks...I am going to have to get my grand daughter over and give me a crash course on this lingo.

Isaiah:

Thanks...I am going to have to get my grand daughter over and give me a crash course on this lingo.

Denny,
For various reasons, I decided earlier this year that Ben Stein is quite insane. It's the only explanation for some of the stuff he says.

I posted a link to a Faux News clip featuring Peter Schiff where Stein called Merrill Lynch an "astonishingly well run company." Twice. This was in August of this year.

He holds Merrill in his own retirement account. That's maybe why he wants everyone to buy banks and wait a decade for some returns.

By the way, Steve Sjuggerude says "the best time to buy something is when it is hated AND BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF RECOVERING." I'd take his investment advice over Ben Stein's any day of the week. Stein was yelling 'buy Merrill' 3 months and a 35% loss in value ago. Thanks, Ben.

Golfer,

To elaborate, what Isaiah is really saying, Believe is "Yippee-Ai-O-Kai-Ay I cleaned up on ultra shorts!"

Telestar3d,

thx for the link, i follow TRE very closely as im a fan of Ms. Sinclair, and have wondered what happened in the past couple hours. i dont get news alters unless i check yahoo or whatever,
but this heading for a nice close, solid african mining company.

Picked up some SSO @80.35

Lugopt -

This is not a subprime problem as Alt-A and even prime loans are experiencing losses. Commercial paper market is shriveling, libor rates are spiking, London has experienced its first bank failure in over 100 years, housing market is in a depression; I could go on.

The point is that Wall Street firms will not acknowledge their losses until they have no choice. Banks are trading so low because no one knows what they are hiding and if the losses will be big enough to wipe out shareholders equity.

Today's meltdown indicates to me that the problems run deep. Listen to the market.

What a sell off

sorry no tiny url but a must read!

snippets:

Paulson and Co fund (no not that Paulson, although i wonder if there is a relation) made 1000% so far THIS YEAR mostly bet against subprime.
said most banks would be insolvent if forced to mark to market
commercial real estate is next.
will be putting profits INTO GOLD AND OTHER PMs!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b6160be-9b80-11dc-8aad-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

jfs,
A few days ago, JeffMathewsIsNotMakingThisUp.com had a great article on buybacks and the damage done. He references the Journal article Mish pulls from. Here's an excerpt:

"After all, today’s story politely leaves out one of the all-time great admissions of regret—ranking right up there with Chamberlain after Munich, business-wise—which came yesterday morning from one of the most aggressive practitioners of the “return value to shareholders” school of balance sheet destruction: Steve Odland, the CEO of Office Depot.

A sober Mr. Odland, formerly hailed as the savior of that once-proud office products retailer following a highly successful stint spent largely buying back stock and occasionally running stores at AutoZone, told Wall Street’s Finest:

"We are very disappointed in our third-quarter results and remain concerned about the economic environment over the next few quarters. We are also very unhappy with our stock price.

Unfortunately, we have cleared the balance sheet of cash, and our operating cash flows declined, so we don't have the opportunity to buy back shares at a time when we believe they are a huge value. [Emphasis added.]"

Specifically, Office Depot “cleared the balance sheet” of $200 million this fiscal year by buying 5.7 million shares at $35 a share.

While that doesn’t sound like much, it came after “clearing the balance sheet” of $971 million in fiscal 2006 by buying 26 million shares at an average price of $37 per share. (Last trade--you don't wanna know.)

Where this leaves Office Depot as a stock, we express no opinion, but management at Target ought to think twice about listening to the barking seals otherwise known as Wall Street’s Finest—the analysts who applaud companies such as Office Depot for giving short-term oriented shareholders short-term rewards such as high-priced stock buybacks without any notion of the kind of painful long-term consequences now being suffered by Office Depot’s shareholders:

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Target Corp., the second-largest U.S. discount chain, posted an unexpected decline in quarterly profit after consumers facing higher mortgage payments and gasoline expenses cut spending. The retailer also said today it will buy as much as $10 billion of its stock, which lost almost a quarter of its value since reaching a record in July….

``It's the right thing to do to leverage up their balance sheet and buy back stock in the face of slowing overall sales growth,'' [emphasis added] said Jeffrey Klinefelter, an analyst at Piper JaffrayCos. in Minneapolis, who recommends investors hold their shares.

I’d like to see Mr. Klinefelter tell that to a room full of Office Depot shareholders, and get out alive, or, at the very least, with his flippers still attached.

Our metaphorical hat goes off to the Wall Street Journal for flagging a timely and important topic...but how they left out the best part of the Office Depot call is beyond us."

http://tinyurl.com/32s2s6

Jaketh

How did you do... I sold a little bit too early...averaged around 41.88...cannot believe it went to 42.49 at one time ...Oooouch!

Geez!
Bailed 10 minutes too early and missed a $2 updraft on FXP...still sweet, though!

Bull Hunter,
I was talking to my brother in law, who is a top shelf mechanic in CT. I was asking if he knew of any decent $2,000 cars (a city car.)

He said no, and that he was seeing not very many used cars come on the market. He said no one wants to buy anything becuase they don't want the debt. He also said people are keeping and fixing cars they would have gotten rid of previously.

Looks like good times for car mechanics ahead.

Isaiah, Jaketh:

I just went to see how the market closed as I wasn't watching it real closely today. It must have been a wild last hour or so.

I wish I could get into "ultra shorts" but my wife says I am too old for them.

Looks like we will finish on the Dow at +100 points lower than the Dow Theory sell signal of 12,846.
Not sure what it means in the chop of ST trading but combined with treasury yields and other looming indicators. IMO,in the LT we're surely looking to trend down.

Panic selling in the U.S. stock market the last hour of trading illustrates the power of the current downtrend. Usually the last of hour trading results in a price gain in the indices versus the 3pm price.

Institutional fund managers must be dumping stocks, as SPX is now negative YTD. Leverage in the financial system being unwound as good positions are being sold to pay for bad positions, hence dollar/yen has moved down to 107.25.

Price risk in the stock market is still very high but time risk is lessening dramatically as the stock market's internal technicals are getting closer to reaching extreme readings. Therefore, it is almost time to put cash to work.

JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

MikeNYC,
Maybe Stein will be proven right that in 2017 financials will be higher than where they are now. They could be double...but that may only make up for the loss someone incurs holding them on the way down! In my mind there is a huge opportunity cost, too, but I am only a guy on the web not a syndicated writer.

I opened a position in SRS (Short Real Estate) today, to add some short exposure to my portfolio. I have a couple of reasons why I saw today as a good entry. First, I saw the daily RSI for SRS pop back above 30, and volume increase. IYR (Dow Jones US Real Estate has had a nice counter trend bear market rally from it's lows, and it's Daily RSI is above 70)... SRS is the anti IYR. Second, with Gold and Oil, heck with all commodities in rally mode pushing into new territory, interest rates (bond rates) will respond to the upside in my opinion. This will further weigh on an industry already in much pain and clearly defined downtrend. In at 80.20. My two cents.

Posted by: Hoosier [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 10, 2007 4:34 PM

Took a good chunk off today to lock in profits at 50% gain. I like to slow dance. ;-)

Thanks to all the commenters and the host today for providing some great perspective.