Good move, Bill.

And it looks like the trading gods took pity on me Wednesday in missing my late-day fill on SDS.

Does anyone have a take on how the carry trade is going to play a role next week as U.S. traders return to work? The movement in the Yen and Euro against the dollar have to be weighing heavily on an awful lot of ledgers, right? My sense is that any rally today will just be a prelude to more selling next week.

n2- glad to see you'll get a second chance to work that trade...

do you have a take on MU?

Hey 2nd, MU hasn't been this low since '03. And by just about any measure, it is oversold, way oversold.

But is it a good time to buy? I don't see anything in the daily, weekly or monthly to give hope.

The monthly chart tells a tale of extreme woe. From an all-time high of $97 in April of 2000 to $6.90 in 2003. Will it retest? Maybe so. And I don't want to try to play a bounce in the meantime. I'm not as nimble as you! ;)

Bill:
"...In this regard, if your time horizon is.. when to switch (2/4, 3/4 or 4/4) dance steps."

I found this aspect of today's Daily Report of particular value to me. The inclusion of the indicators that are useful at various time frames I believe will help many of us who are really not rocket scientists.

Isaiah,
You asked for a link to Colin Twiggs. Here is the latest trading diary entry.
http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

There is a link on the page to subscribe to the free newsletter. The web site is educational.

2nd,
I may have gotten ahead of myself on the downside (duh) but will be adding to short positions on strength and playing any bounce in the financials and probably tech. I don't think I will hold those long though....

Bought GFI in the premkt.

Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday.

Bill and Colin seem to be of like mind. Retail analyst, Howard Davidowitz, was on Bloomberg this AM and was extremely negative.

Oh, and AJC says the DOW signal doesn't mean anything. Alrighty then, how about the cash flow charts of all the major indexes?

She and Alan Greenspan are charter members of the PPT. AJC says all is well and Al says the sub-prime mess is all done. There aren't any drugs powerful enough to make a person this dilusional.

"There aren't any drugs powerful enough to make a person this delusional..."

money, sex, and power->any or all can lead one far astray->how far? 'nuff said...

"Savings. Imagine that? Just like the old days."

There is another aspect of "just like the old days" when not only did people actually save and those savings were in paper dollars but they didn't trust banks either that may be ocurring today.

When the CDN economy started to turn around in the early sixties my father started to build custom homes again. I will never forget getting payments from one particular client who happened to be a farmer, who happened to live during the depression years. The payments were made in CASH and you could SMELL the DIRT that it had been SAVED in.

I want the opportunity to be tested with money.

In long on Zolt at 34.94. Strictly a short term (maybe day) trade based on the bounce.

ZOLT is a commercial carbon fiber play (not aero) with large swings that was beaten hard the last couple weeks. Already slightly underwater.

I had closed my shorts on home builders and skf monday.

NOT.V- cleared the table at 5

Looks like the Nasdaq hit 200 day resistance the first time it tried to cross 2583 this morning. Not as much of a rally as I had expected. Maybe the buy-side is getting fearful of being left holding the bag when it drops 30%.

Rob.

MU- opening a position at 8.10...

2nd,
The bulls are wearing no clothes. If they *could* make this market rally, they would. *Maybe* they can spike it 200 pts, but it comes back. They're having trouble with 100 pts.at the open.
Maybe Monday.

NOT.V delayed.....was $5.13 CDN! Now back below 5.

2nd..and others...

I know your timeframe it much shorter than mine and you are in and out like Flash Gordon, but

my great problem now is do I hold NOT.V I have a 12% return in 2DAYS...but my time horizon is usually a little longer than yours...

I know that it is my decision, and I will probably sell some to lock in profits and lower my cost basis on the shares I hold looking to reload at lower prices...

My dilema....I like Bill believe there will be a selloff in gold to the 700.00 ish level...Do I take some of the profits and run...Learing to dance day to day.., but this minute to minute in and out is getting tough on me..

2nd_ave - FXI and FXP also look interesting to me but I'm not inclined personally to hold overnight at this point.

For anyone who is interested, FXI and its inverse FXP are etf's that are offered by iShares/ProShares to reflect the performance of the FTSE/Xinhua25 Index (SharpCharts - $FTX). This Index contains 25 "H" share companies that are permitted by China to be offered on the exchange in HongKong, thus there are some Governmental ramifications in addition to economics. Although there is considerable volume for the etf's, each tick can move by leaps - thus possibly not a trade vehicle for those prone to heart attacks - ggg.

Over our holiday, I posted that the Telegraph had an article that headlined that China has joined the "credit crisis" and stocks are selling off. I still haven't confirmed that "headliner" anywhere else and am about ready to reclass it to "can liner". Some other news said that China has loosened its currency to permit a faster ascent against the $Dollar than previously permitted, but someone smarter than me will have to estimate the extent of the impact, if any, this would have on $FTX. My thought is that a higher Yuan will cut exports and be a negative on the Index, but I have no expertise on the subject.

The weekly $FTX shows an RSI(7) less than 30_, thus possibly in Bill's AZone, BUT , the monhly RSI(7) shows a current (meaning it could chage by the end of the month) negative cross under the 70_; thus, possibly a sell signal by eom. Ah ltttle grasshopper what to do?

Bill, is this situation (sell signal vs buy zone) where one would best trade only in the shorter term (daily/hrly) charts and/or wait for a trend line break for confirmation of future direction, or trade only in the direction of the longest term chart (the monthly)?

I agree basket. I also agree with Craig this is a lousy rally.

At the end of the day I may close may ZOLT long and go back short SKF and SRS for next week.

I'll be travelling with only a crummy Blackberry to tr to trade or keep track of things so I will set very tight shorts if I do this.

But, the day is still young.

bg- i've waited too long on many of the juniors to see the kind of moves "expected" of them...if you can make 12% in two days, why not take it? if you make 12% five times waiting for a 60% move, you've done just as well...

MU- adding at 8.14 into an outsized position...daily/weekly/monthly RSIs all under 20...don't know if that means higher odds of a bounce (and who cares if it's a dead cat) or i'm about to get whacked...

very tight stops that is...whoops.

2nd_ave,

Just read the MU 10k. This things looks just
like death warmed over. No positives at all
very pessimestic reading. I know you are quick on the switch from reading here. Good luck!

A pump monkey on Bloomberg is at this moment making an absurd claim that a weak dollar doesn't lead to inflation.

Well, of course it doesn't.

They are both the result of promiscuous fiscal policy!

Grrrrr ...

Well that was fast....Took 18% profit off the table filled at 5.22 on not.v...

Thanks again everybody...I think that new car for my wife will be in the driveway by valentines day now...

Unless I can buy more Not.v under 4.50 again...

vavoline6- understood...in a way, glad to hear it...news is always worst->not going to jinx myself here ;)

2nd...

MU I am in at 8.38...small position and will add if it drops again...I am in a buying mood on this one...

Looking at the chart and I know someone brought this up before, but when MU pops you are looking at 20% gains in a metter of days...

Good luck..I am in with you...

Hi,

15 BN USD of Fed open market operations matured today. The FED renewed only 6,25 BN.

The total liquidity was dried in 8,75 BN USD.

Not a good day to buy equity.

anyone holding ETFC- up almost 30% at today's high...

Bill....at the risk of asking you to repeat yourself, can you address us intermediate traders on the sideline...and, wow, really appreciate how you are doing your very best to speak to different time horizons. I have to say it is frustrating to see the miners pour it on. In the past week I used Fidelity's platform to make a watchlist of the varied junior miners mentioned here; and, they keep moving up. Months ago I traded in and out of not.v; and, now, that entry price is looking like it would have been a brilliant choice for the longer term. I'm assuming that the junior miners will offer another opportunity at a lower price, or should I be averaging in. My past history with low price stocks is that I've seen others do a much better job of getting more stock shares for the same cost base. In the longer term it can make a huge difference. As I write this I see basketguy may be going through a similar stress but from the perspective of a nimble trader who already has a position. Meanwhile, I've printed out your commentary to keep me focused:

"All that I am trying to do is point out that now is the time you need to let others chase your prices, and to sell into that strength when its there, and to allow prices to come to you where you buy into weakness those of your core holdings, when others are busy throwing out the babies with the bathwater. This is the attitude you must have in order to attain a superior portfolio performance."

NOT.V cleared the table @5.135 in two accounts.

Thank You again, Bill.

jasper- sidelined is not a bad state right now, and if you're sidelined take the opportunity to live outside the market->frustration can turn to exuberance and back again in the space of a day...almost easier to read the paper every morning while waiting for your next entry into the market...

'Greenspan harbors "no regrets" as U.S housing slump deepens'. Bloomberg.

Didn't he get his already? Of course the SOB has no regrets. It's Mom and Pop that have regrets. What a pompous ass.

FNC.V out at 1.83. Still have healthy position in MacDonald (BMK.V) and smaller position in Freewest (FWR.V).

Me thinks Greenspan doth protest too much. His recent traveling show to shape his place in history reminds me of a similar campaign waged by a former football star. Greenspan's book should be subtitled "If I did it."

Jaketh

"If I did it."

That was tooooooooooooooo funny!

Jaketh,,

You are on fire today...FUNNY..

basketguy:

Somewhere in this blog,(I think it would be within the last two weeks), Bill had a breakdown of the kind of return he expects at various time frames. I found it useful to solve some of my concerns with the same issues you face.

I tend to be a longer term player with stocks and I am primarily interested in small cap growth companies (in Canada small cap is really small cap compared to US small cap). I also have money in Money Markets and at times may have some in short term corporate bonds which I will keep till they mature etc.

This is what I do to solve the dilemma you and I have with when to take profits. Let us say I am looking at a company that I think should have a very good chance of going up 15% over the next 12 months....I buy it and within 1 month it is up 15%...now the problem...sell/hold/sell 1/2 ???/ raise my stop limit/ let winners run...

NOTE: I do one other thing before I buy...if I am looking at a 1 year time frame and am willing to live with any NORMAL ups and downs that the company's share price may undergo I have also looked at what a NO RISK 1 yr investment (e.g 1 yr CD) will pay me which say is about 2 to 3%. This mean I can take my investment $$$ and put it in no risk or riskier products.

Conclusion: If I take the riskier path and it goes up as in the example above, I say this to myself...WOW I just made 15% in a week which would have taken me 5 yrs or more to make if I had put it into the 1yr CD and reinvested the returns. "1 in the hand is worth two in the bush."

NOTE: Another thing I look at to determine whether to hold it...let winners run etc.,is the law of diminishing returns...If I hold it how much longer will it take to go another 15%? Maybe I hold...maybe I sell and take the money and put it in another company that I think will go up 15% over the next twelve months.

I guess my point is I am trying to get rid of the emotions involved with the "good trade ..bad trade" emotional syndrome. It is funny but the worse feeling that I have had in the relatively short time I have been looking after my own money (used to use financial advisors who called me once a year..I will not digress) hasn't been with losing money on a trade or choosing the wrong company to invest in but in not TRUSTING MY SYSTEM....I mean if you can't trust yourself who can you trust?

I hope this makes sense because there has been a lot of "NOISE" around me as I tried to write it...I am grandpa mom this morning.

Golfer,,

thanks...Your information is very helpful, and you have been at this longer than I...

Right now to me the market feels like Thelma & Louise right before they drive off the cliff...

They are sitting in the car talking, wondering then HIT THE GAS......We will look back and say wow I did not think that was going to happen...and that the market was going to fall that far that fast...

Sold my ZOLT at 35.73 and went 'long' skf and srs at 103.96 and 110.96 respectively. Now I need to set some stops and hope the calculated rsk 'confessional' works overtime this weekend.

Set my stops at 100 for skf and 107 for srs. Never done that before. I'll lose no more than today's gains hopefully. And since next week I won't have ready access to trade I FEEL SAFER.

Thank you Mr. Cara and posters, I am learning.

OK I give. Sold my 1K shares of NOT.V for a 30% gain at 5.2258. Thanks Bill. Gotta trust the Cara traders.

OK I give. Sold my 1K shares of NOT.V for a 30% gain at 5.2258. Thanks Bill. Gotta trust the Cara traders.

whats going on with Spot Gold right now,
just bullhorned from $815 to $824.

STK,
Gotta love this environment where guys anguish over 30% gains. Nice timing!

jvo

Adding QID here. 41.08

Bill,
Are their signs which would indicate to you that Gold isn't going to revisit low 700s before, say, it runs into the higher 800s?

Jake

"Strategy for United States Natural Gas Fund LP

The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index"

Posted by: Lazarus at November 21, 2007 11:53 AM

Lazarus,
On Wednesday you mentioned UNG was an ETF short on natural gas. What I have found doesn't sound like a short to me

I found this on Scottrade...

"Strategy for United States Natural Gas Fund LP
The Fund seeks to invest primarily in futures contracts for natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, ICE Futures or other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, "Futures Contracts")."

and this on Yahoo Finance...

"The investment seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of natural gas. The trust will invest in futures contracts on natural gas traded on the NYMEX that is the near month contract to expire. It is nondiversified"

2nd ave....
Yep, in a heartbeat I can feel on either the right or wrong side of being heavily in cash.

Bill....thanks...and I'd have to agree that my intended disciple, at least in sector investing, is short term (3-4 months) while micro cap positions are much longer term(years). Unfortunately, it does pay, I think, to learn how to trade some portion of a micro cap position. Two such positions are OMNI(oil service and exploration) and AVD(chemical in ag sector). Willing to hold, perhaps incorrectly, because the world needs help will getting more scare resources: oil and food....a don coxe strategy. "On the other hand" a good strategy is only as good as its tactics...ala Bill Cara!

Isaiah, indeed UNG is a long ETF on Nat Gas. DUG is the ultra short for Oil & Gas.

2nd,

It would make me feel better if you could get the POG down. Then again, Bill has been right too many times, so I'll just go read my newspaper and eat some leftovers.

Update on HRB today.

- They announced an additional $350M available credit to fund servicing advances for Option One. Total is $750M available through Greenwich Capital Financial Products, Inc.

- They canceled $750 million warehouse credit line with the same Greenwich Capital, which was alloted for new mortgage loans.

entire release here: http://tinyurl.com/35wjzo

So they took away 750M and gave back 350M = net loss of credit of 400M.

Hello Bill. Not too sure where you are residing these days. Have missed reading all the excellent banter from your readers. I have held Nokia and Telofinica for quite some time. I believe you made a very good choice as always. I just returned from the tropics to spend thanksgiving with the family. My children are home from school. They are American, but my wife and I are not.

The turmoil in the markets bothers me a bit and therefore I am continuing to load up in Gold and quality real estate. I am cutting back my stock portfolio from 40 to 20. I can't really follow it while I am away. You will be delighted to know that the 20 stock are also in your Cara 100, therfore I know I am in safe hands while I am mixing cement with a shovel in the tropics.

Hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year. Keep up the good work.

I'm sitting on my hand today. I'm waiting for the bullish divergences in the S&P and Russell 2K, among others, to play themselves out.

And the hourly on RTH (retail ETF) has some resistance at 95. Where, coincidentally, it has a confirmed downtrend line. I expect we'll get some resolution on this early Monday morning.

It looks like we may get a strong effort in the last 1/2 hour to bring the DJI back over 13K.

MU- cashing out half at 8.34...

number2son

That's what I thought about UNG... thanks for concurring.

BMD- up 33%..hoping that makes someone happy...

Bill,

I concede that my previous analysis for today was incorrect, and that, as usual, you were right in the money.

Ok, so now we get a few days bounce back untill this goes south again.

:-)

Enjoy your weekend!

bg- sorry, man->taking off another 25% of the MU position (for now) at 8.39...
picking up a little QID and FXP into the close for insurance...

You know what 2nd_ave...

After all we've been through...That's O.K...Because I know if MU takes off on Monday you will back in with both feet again...:)

This one I can hold...and if the shorts get kranky and nervous That 20% pop will happen in a FLASH...

Looks who is back from the grave....

UXG

up .13

Whoooooow........

I feel like I just hit the Power Ball Lottery.
Which by the way is $137,000,000.00

If you sold one share of UXG you get 4 tickets and a penny back.

Question for those who have been around a while.....
What would have caused that quik dip just before the close?
Thanks

krishnamurtidude...

Are you talking about the dip in gold??

FXP- still think anyone who owned this at market close wednesday got the holiday shaft- closed at 91.25 wednesday night->shanghai drops 4% overnight, then up 1% the following day->by the time you get to trade your position, it opens down 4%...

holiday also threw off the QID trade (does anyone think QID would not have opened up if US exchanges had been open thursday?)...but compared to FXP, guess QID holders have little to complain about...

If anyone is holding UNG, are you planning to hold it till Monday or sell before the close today?

QID/FXP- no excuses on the outcome of the trade(s), but it's important to recognize that our instincts in the final minutes of the wednesday close were not necessarily "mistaken..." and next time we're facing a mid-week holiday, we'll know better ;)

krishnamurtidude

I have not been around that long, but what I have seen is a lot of sell offs at the last 1/2 hr.
My take it is profit taking by computer sell programs. It always happens in real quick spurts. My Scottrade screen flashes like a neon sign when it happens.

Have a great weekend everybody...

Cold here in Chicago, but gotta run downtown tommorrow to see the windows at the Macy's store (Marshall Fields) Family Traditons are hard to break...

Just not the same now that it is a Macy's...Oh Well Guess I have to be thankful that it is still an AMERICAN OWNER...

isaiah- early close today->still holding UNG...

2nd,
Sure got on the downside of those Wednesday calls, short term. I need a 24/7/365 international broker.

Added again to QID near the bottom and sold the GFI I bought premkt, my only real money making trade today besides NOT....which I can't complain about!

Underwater a small amount on QID/DXD/DUG.

We'll see what retail/financial news we get over the weekend.

what time is the close?

Oooooooooooo my.......... another rookie mistake?

What time did trading end 2nd?

craig- i see GFI kept working its way up the entire session, no pullback at all..

1pm EST

I was talking about the dip in the S&P. I was wondering if it might be market makers or someone pushing it down to take out sell stop orders

I have to find a better broker. This 1/2hr market quote delay sucks.

Ok fellows...enjoy your weekend.

kry------still nothing

I am in the process of opening an account with Interactive Broker. I would appreciate any input to pro's and con's. Also,I can't find some information on the site. Just wondering if they have a money market account that you can let funds set in? Also, once an account is set up, is electronic funds tranfer available to and from ones bank account?
Thanks
Bill

Yeah...almost too strong....that's why I sold.

Sold strength, bought weakness.

General market:
I'm not picking tops/bottoms, I'm picking a trend. If cash flow suddenly goes positive I'll have to reconsider. Not likely!

The TH's and retail advertisers will try to spin it their way over the weekend.

Isaiah

Here is link for free real time quotes (US)provided by the NYSE's arca server. The format isn't perfect but the price is right. If you go to the NYSE site you can find the Arca web book in java format (self-refreshing).

I will forewarn that during very high volumes periods the quotes can get backed up and no longer reflect real-time, but this is not a regular occurence.

Just add the symbol you would like to the end of the string.

http://tinyurl.com/ytzmxv

Isiah,
You and me on the early close shock! Duh!

Bill,

So you're anticipating dollar rescue moves to temporarily push POG down one last time into M/Low 700s? Ala Custer?

RANDOM THOUGHTS

#2son.....great term "pump monkey"

CNBC has a new pump monkey, Dennis Kneale. He was a Forbes reporter who appeared on Forbes on Fox. Last week he was strongly arguing that there was no evidence that the decining dollar has caused any inflation. If I had dentures...I would have choked.

The host of PowerLunch today said if you were watching him on TV at a department store to do your bit and buy the TV.

Stores opening earlier and earlier.... heard of one store at midnight, Kohl's at 4am, Target at 6am. Discounts galore...all pretty disgusting.

I saw a news bit on Brits coming to the US to shop. Brit travel agencies selling shopping tours to Mall of America and a NYC suburban discount shopping mall. Business is hot! Our crap is almost half the price of their crap. One lady was giddy... buying a $500 purse that was only 250 pounds. So LMVH,a Euro company,keeps it Chinese factories churning out more crap. BA sells a plane ticket,the Brit travel agency gets a cut and the US retailer makes a few pennies on the deal and the US retail clerk keeps his/her minimum wage job. UGH!

Regarding the dollar, Russia will open an oil bourse in St Petersburg during the first quarter of 2008 where oil will be priced in rubles. Euro customers will not need to convert to dollars to buy Russian oil. Also, it looks like Persian gulf states may switch to a basket of currencies
to price their oil. Some afraid to totally abandon the dollar ie the House of Saud, but they are moving to adjust their pegs to the dollar as it is causing imported inflation. The BOJ warned a couple of weeks ago that 114 was a line in the sand for the Yen but that turned out to be a bluff as the dollar is now in the 108 range. No intervention yet. Hank and Bennie better be careful or the decline may develop into a death spiral, creating massive inflation and chaos in world markets. They say a weaker dollar will help exports. Exports are 10% of GDP
Consumer discretionary spending is 70%.

Heard a story about a Michigan fellow who got a job in Dallas...sold his newer $425k house in MI for 350k and was happy as a clam just to get out. I grew up in MI and we had a saying in the 70's...last one to leave Michigan don't forget to turn out the lights. Deja vu.

2nd_ave

How many monitors/screens do you use when you are trading the market so rapidly?

Are you trading with information that is at least 1/2 hour old?

Any others that trade a stock rapidly during the day can reply.

Bill and all

I've seen a few comments recently on Bills RSI 7 D-W-M method, thanks Bill I do like it. I've always wanted to find a graphical way to present it to people and I think I've found a way. A bit cumbersome but as an example I don't mind the extra work of plotting, clipping and then overlaying.

I just happened to pick INTC as it was on my screen at the time and has had some up and down over the last 6 years. Buy on hold guys for this time span would be even, but by using the A/D Zones to add or lighten positions it could have been quite profitable.

All RSI plots are the same 6 year time frame and then overplayed on a base monthly chart for INTC, with the daily and weekly RSI plots smoothed as follows, just to make it a little easier to see.

Daily plotted SMA 4 of RSI 7
Weekly plotted SMA 2 of RSI 7
Monthly plotted as raw RSI 7

http://tinyurl.com/2v87g5

Bill what do you think, just wish I could find an easy way to plot it directly, (have a couple of indirect methods I'm working on)

Isaiah64v4,

re UNG and DUG see my post from November 21, 2007 12:48 PM, it will give you all the links, basically UNG is long nat gas commodity fund and DUG is 2X inverse DJ oil and gas index (that’s companies not the oil and gas commodities)

Army in control in Lebanon
http://tinyurl.com/yqvgha

Quasi:

I just glanced at the graphic and will spend more time looking at it later.

Thanks for the input.

Q. I had used the free Stochcharts site for a number of years before becoming a paying customer 2 months ago. Can I do what you did using the BASIC service that I have?

BillySundance.... thanks fellow...but I was only kidding about the 1/2hr delay.... I got caught by surprise when my screen no longer showed any changes.

Jaketh... I did feel foolish when everyone is wrapping it up and I am looking for a 3:30 sell off....

No wonder the market is tanking... nobody there wants to put in a full day any more. Hope they show Monday to open it.

You guys have a good weekend!

Quasi

Thanks I will go check it out.

regarding the Russian Oil Bourse,

the same was said of Iran for the past 3 years,
i think russia may move to make accommodation for some degree of currency flexibility, but remember russia's dominance in energy markets only grows with global growth, would they wish to further worsen the US dollar crisis in order to boost theirs and the EU's purchasing power?

i dont think russia will move in a such a linear fashion, if there is an angle to be played russia and china will and have historically been know to play it.

---------

to add to all this Mr. Jim Sinclair has been saying for some time that it will be ultimatley the raising of rates not the cutting of rates that will set in motion the massive uplegs of the price of gold.

i dont understand this entirely but do you Bill and others make senese of this?

Bill,
Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts. Always enjoy a peek inside that head!

If Iran, Russia, Venezula and some other, but not all OPEC countries do not want to paid in USD who is being hurt more by the falling USD them or the USA? Is this a war of attrition?

golfer at November 23, 2007 2:21 PM

RE Stockcharts,

Yes you can do it with stockcharts basic, but not directly. I made 3 different charts, monthly, weekly and daily. Then I clipped the RSI sections off the daily and weekly charts and overlaid them onto the monthly chart in a separate program, PaintNet. In that program you can use separate layers and make them transparent so they all showup one on top of the other. I produced it just as an example.

Anyway don't want to get into too much detail here, I've used Stockcharts Extra service for about 7 years and there are a few of us users who regularly answer questions on the IHUB Stockcharts users forum, best to get into the details over there. Its free, you just have to sign up to post.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1277

Quasi:

You must have been one of their first users. I met John Murphy at the Money Show in Orlando some seven years ago??? when he was just beginning promoting the site.

I am more of a "take more time buyer and seller" and to date the sources I use for my data collection, technical indicators and chart making have seemed good enough. From your experience what are the major benefits to the EXTRA .

thx Bill, alwasys appreciated,

ive wondered if investors are sitting on larger cash positions than normal, and if they alocate only a 1/10 of that cash to gold which they may have never had before, it could send gold soaring.

that being said i feel that so much is working against the miners, im considering going back to holding longer term positions in bullion.

thanks!!!

I am in the process of opening an account with Interactive Broker. I would appreciate any input to pro's and con's. Also,I can't find some information on the site. Just wondering if they have a money market account that you can let funds set in? Also, once an account is set up, is electronic funds tranfer available to and from ones bank account?
Thanks
Bill

Golfer, regard Stockcharts extra: What I like about this add on service is the ability to create discrete groups (by industry or whatever) of charts. Often, when I'm researching an industry (for example oil services or Marine), I'll load the symbols under a category called "oil services" or "marine". I get the symbols from the S&P report on Fidelity which lists the stocks in the sector universe of the stock that I'm reviewing.

By looking at all of the symbols together in either candle glance or summary, you can see easily who is the stronger performer. Also, you can also spot early trends in sectors (e.g. I spotted coal becoming hotter earlier this year). By the time you hear about this stuff on TV or other media, most of the move has been made.

If you like Easter egg hunting, IMV, this is like getting a 10 minute start ahead of all the other folks with baskets that would just as soon trip you up!

Bill/krishnamurtidude: I'd be interested in how you settled on your name. I have many of J. Krishnamurti's books. Not sure if there is a connection, but wanted to ask.

Anyone looking at Canwest Global (CGS.TO)?

Goldman Sachs has a 64% vested interest in having the CRTC approve the acquisition of Alliance Atlantis, even though they say they are a non-voting partner.

Something about foreign ownership is bothering the CRTC & arts groups (big surprise there)

Korvus' RSI screener seems to indicate a buy and the stock is not well liked due to the large amount of debt and the concern the acquisition won't go through.

Not a lot of liquidity but the stock is up around 5-7% today.

Disclosure... went long CTS.TO today.

http://tinyurl.com/yvztac

Should have got in with ETFC too yesterday (>23% gain today)... but shoulda woulda.... gotta enjoy my weekend.

golfer-

only use one monitor
actually, i trade 90% of the time against the backdrop of a full-time job, and don't watch the screen- how does that work (LOL)? a) there is quite a bit of time spent at a desk/PC, so able to keep tabs on market-related info in the toolbar, b) work fast and multi-task well, c) plenty of discretionary time that permits me "catch up" with intense bursts of activity pre- and post-market, d) be surprised how different spheres of mental activity job dovetail and complement eachother->work-related ideas can segue into market perspective and vice versa...a good trade can provide the impetus for pushing the envelope on a project...the give and take is endless...so much of life is mental->the more you engage in, the more productive you are altogether...

so to answer your question->watch price action as much as i need to, which derives entirely on the trade(s) i have on that day...and although i enjoy numbers as much as the next guy, i prefer gauging sentiment to monitoring price action->truly believe it's more reliable, as numbers can be manipulated in many ways, whereas human nature is predictable as hell ;)

...demands

sorry, man...typing too fast: a) cut "job" from a), b) time spent watching price action "based entirely on," c) cut ...demands

golfer at November 23, 2007 3:02 PM

Re Stockcharts basic vs extra service

Yes I have been a supporter almost since the beginning, first a free banner site, then basic paid, then an extra member. I would stick with the basic paid service for 6 months to a year, I think it is excellent value for approx $100/yr. When you need more just upgrade which you can do at any time.

There is a comparison list on the site, but here is a summary of the items that I gladly pay the extra $100/yr for. (Basic paid vs Extra paid)

Stored "Favorites" Lists; 1 vs 100
Charts per Favorites List; 100 vs 500
Stored Custom Chart Settings; 2 vs 20
Maximum Intraday Chart Duration; 5 days vs 40+ days
Ability to Save Annotated Charts; No vs Yes
Create Custom Technical Scans; basic vs advanced
Number of Results from Custom Scans; 10 vs 999
Create Advanced Multi-Expression Scans; No vs Yes
Ability to Save Custom Scans; No vs Yes
Ability to Save Scan Results in a List; No vs Yes

And as Leisa says, I too have multiple favorites lists buy sectors etc, multiple chart settings depending on what I'm looking at and for (D, W, M,). The list just goes on, I also have internal scans on my lists to let me know of any sudden changes. I've been there done that and could write you a small book of all the tricks I developed for both the basic and extra service.

Hope this gives you a few ideas, if you have more specific questions, check out the stockcharts users forum I gave you in the last post.

PS: I'm not a daytrader, mostly swing to longer term, can't usually watch the markets during the day, but I do have two monitors, (soon 3), once you experience more than one you will never go back.

Leisa:

Since you enjoy preparing food for other people I hope your dinner table was completely full and your guests enjoyed the food as much as you enjoyed making it.

Thank you for your input on EXTRA.

I also try to be ahead of the crowd as my earlier post of today alludes to. I too got into coal a number of months ago but I am sure if I used the screen/method you refer to my research would have been much better.

(VA - grits) + West VA = coal ...makes sense to me

Quasi:

Thanks for the info. and especially the honesty in advising me to try it out rather than jumping into Extra right away.

I will be looking into using the forum.

Bill:

In reference to stock being traded on a US exchange and the TSE...say Silver Wheaton.

As I understand it the price that it is being traded at must be the same relative to currency rates at the time ???

If this is so is there any relationshipn between the number of shares that must be traded on each exchange?

I hope this makes sense...I am trying to get as much information as I can from you and other members of the community before the action starts back up in earnest on Monday.

After hanging out, on and off, for about six months I've come to accept and believe that a peak into Bill's head is a rarefied peak behind the curtain of "the street".

Quasi:

After re-reading your post this statement you made really hit me:

"I've been there done that and could write you a small book of all the tricks I developed for both the basic and extra service."

Bill, you, Leisha, me and all the others "have been there, done that" in some way or other and when we share it you get that exact feeling that this person has been there and done that. I dropped out of a Masters program because a number of the Profs were presenting material in a way to make you think that they had been there and done that when it fact they were getting their information by reading a book the night before their lectures.

Thanks again to all.

Jasper....

Maybe that's why they call him the Trader "Wizard"....like the man behind the curtain in OZ.....

Anybody have thoughts on Garry Anselmo @ Silverado Mines? Particularly Silverado Green Fuels Division which is in a joint venture with Gov. Haley Barber in Mississippi. They plan to turn coal into liquid petro @ $15 per barrel. It sounds good, ...just wondering how good a salesman Mr. Amselmo is vs. a scientist. Disclosure" own insignificant SLGLG @ .07.

I wanted to share a couple of notes that I took when listening to Frank Barbera on FSO about Overbought/Oversold indicators. I'm not a technician, nor do I play one on TV (though I do try to make sense out of it). Frank states (paraphrased) and based on a 9 day RSI

During a movement from a bull to a bear (or bear to bull) there can be a scale shift on the RSI. Meaning in bull markets, can get overbought and stay overbought. He uses 80/40 for OB/OS levels.

Normal Markets: 70/30 OB/OS

Bear Markets: 60/20 OB/OS (Like bear markets can get oversold and stay oversold).

I note this as someone who might hear the theory of relativity--I tell you what I heard, but I don't pretend to having a glancing expertise on what it means. But given that we frequently discuss indicators here, I wanted to bring this "scale shift" concept up.

About armies taking control of politics "for security reasons" --its about having their currency rise or their stock markets going out of control.

Its been happening a lot lately in various places around the pacific in Asia, we see it in Pakistan, and now Lebanon.

Golfer--Thank you for your nice thought. My guests arrived anticipatory and left miserable. Anticipatory to the point where I had to threaten them with a very sharp knife if they began to eat anything prior to my sitting down at the table. They were getting ready to say the blessing (plates filled with side dishes) ans I and my husband were carving the turkey and the ham).

Miserable--because they ate too much.

We had a terrific meal, and I'm not going to cook for three days. I've been very slowly today...2 days prep for 1 hrs worth of eating!

Made a LONG trade today!

First in a while. Bought DOW Dow Chemical. I thought I'd post my reasoning behind the trade.

First; I'm long oil (and other oil related holdings) and want a hedge if it tops here around $100. I bought DOW last summer for a great trade for the same reason, a hedge against gains in oil stock longs in portfolio (someone may remember this trade, a GREAT trade). DOW will perform well if it's costs decline (dropping of oil price). This is one reason why this trade is not for everyone, but is good for me now.

Second; DOW is in accumulation zone with support from former lows in this area and RSI's bottoming. DOW is a Cara 100.

Third; S&P has a 12 month target price of $50 based on a mid cycle P/E of 12 times estimated earnings of $4.25. Fundamentals with a dropping oil price are sound.

Fourth; yield is 4.2%, should provide some safety.

Fifth; I don't like the broad market long term, but could see a bounce through end of year, this is one of the safer trades FOR ME with that view.

In a nutshell, this is a hedge for dropping oil prices, risk is if oil continues to rise (other portfolio holdings will prosper) or if economy goes into recession (long IEF with gain of over 6% now on holding, good holding for recession). My intial purchase was 1/2 position, will add if downtrend is broken to upside or if it drops to July/August levels of last year (where I bought last trade at). I AM NOT RECOMMENDING THIS TRADE! I am simply trying to show how sometimes you need to think a little outside the box.

DISCLOSURE: I am long DOW and do not recommend this trade for anyone else.

krishnamurtidude,
re IB - I recently opened an account so I could trade Canadian stocks online. I haven't tried their TWS software yet, but find their website somewhat non-intuitive. That said, when I came to make my first trade a week or so after funding it, I noticed I had more cash than I'd put in, so its earning some interest, but I don't know whether its in a MMF or simply them paying interest, and I don't know what the rate is. With a bit of luck some of the more experienced IB users will give us some guidance.

Cara 100 with SMA and RSI as HTML and CSV for Excel>
http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

Bill,
I'll be in Nassau next week to check on the proceeds of my Harbour Island home sale, and would like to take you up on your offer for drinks or more there. I am interested in gold opportunies there and other advice for those proceeds for a happy future. Looking forward to it.

J. Reynolds
Naples, FL

TradersQuest - The cara100 csv file is still showing pricing from Nov 15. FYI.

2nd - per your note early on re. ETFC - I had a fleeting thought about buying back in when it was up 10% this am, but then I splashed cold water on my face, and just watched.

Wavesmash, I believe there will be a couple more opportunities to buy low. As long as volume stays up high it's playable.

I did purchase cara100 WFMI today at 40.50.

krishnamurtidude & cyderman re: IB

The info is all there on the IB website. Your best bet is to start at one side of the site and click all tabs you think relevant as it will explain most everything.

They pay about the best interest I've seen, but you have to study the interest page to determine what the rate is for a given amount.

With IB, they do, what they do, very well. Just don't expect hand holding! You have to figure everything out for yourself from the website. But after you've familiarized yourself with all the commissions, what you can trade, where you can trade it etc., IB is pretty straightforward.

http://tinyurl.com/36mque

This blog article compare two strategies for HRB in light of the recent infusion of 350M credit line. Is it to weather the storm or raise money in prep for a fire sale?

Breeden said he is committed to get HRB out of subprime one way or another. The stock price has been a heavyweight champ in all this and with the meltdown of financials.

I would appreciate any insight from those who have seen this done that.

Per my conversation earlier this week on using RSI for ETF's I just wanted to add that I am tracking around 50 ETF's using Korvus RSI application. Both sector and broad based. As mentioned earlier this week I am interested in finding ETF's to invest into for both intermediate and Long term inclusion for a core part of my portfolio.

If eveyone, or some are interested I could provide an update weekly on a Sunday night for which ETF's are hitting AZ/DZ Zones.

I'll watch for responses.

Bill,

You had me there, I thought for a moment that I had missed something. DOW STILL is in both the Global 100 and the USA 100. Not sure if you are making a comment on the trade.

Have a great weekend.

Any thoughts on CPSL?
Thanks in advance.

geckojb,

Interested in the Sunday night posting.

geckojb- would find both the list and the weekly updates valuable- TIA

Looks like Bill was incorrect on gold pulling back to the high $690s and I believe his call on the dollar not falling further will also be incorrect.

Respectfully yours,
ST07

Looks like Bill was incorrect on gold pulling back to the high $690s and I believe his call on the dollar not falling further will also be incorrect.

Respectfully yours,
ST07

ST07- above remark strikes me as incendiary...

I thought Bill said that gold would drop to mid or low 700's.

It ain't over till it's over.

long gold

11/13/07-

"$GOLD futures dropped -40.65 (-4.87 pct) to 794.05 after I warned this weekend. Prices could ratchet down through 770, 755, 725, and possibly as low as 690 before finding a bottom in the next few months. The shares of the goldminers will then receive downgrades from analysts (based on reserve valuations), and there will be margin calls as all equities fall in price and traders (and their brokers) look to sell anything with a bid."

context always helpful...

ST07,
Bill offers his opinions and supporting rationale. One of his opinion is that gold could experience a significant short-term pullback before ultimately heading much higher. I personally think that his supporting rationale for this conclusion are sound and still intact. Clearly you think that the price of gold will continue upward unabated and that the $U.S. will continue downward in a straight line. What is the basis for your conclusion?

geckojb at November 23, 2007 8:06 PM

RE ETF's and RSI tracking. I'm also finding myself looking selectively at some ETF's recently. In the past I preferred individual stocks, but in these markets they are a safer way to play a sector without exposing your eggs in just one basket.

With respect to RSI and TA in general I've discovered you have to be careful what you look at and how you use it. Chip over at Stockcharts had an interesting example in this weeks news letter on this very subject. You might find it of interest. Basically points out that the normal price / volume relationship for ETF's that track something is just not there, they only attempt to track the price, (can't track volume). Thus any TA indicator which includes volume could be misleading. However in the case of RSI it is price based only so no problem.

Stockcharts newsletter
http://tinyurl.com/2spa3y

Quasi- thanks for pointing that out...i've always wondered about the significance of trading volume(s) with an ETF...if you're trading an ultra-short, need to be watching the underlying index to see what's really going on...

2nd_ave at November 23, 2007 9:43 PM

Yes it's interesting, we trade these ETF's just like stocks so we tend to think of them as stocks and look at the charts the same way. But if I bought a trillion shares of XYZ, I would definitely move the stock big time. But the derivative based ETF can just take your money and purchase more derivatives. Now you could say that maybe the large volume in options (in one direction) might spill over and eventually have an affect on the stock price but there would be a delay, (hours or days).

Judging from discourse at a subscription site of mostly traders...the theme has suddenly gone from last week's bearishness based on longterm violation of the transport trendline and negative daily divergences to exuberant bullishness due to the real uptrend is still intact....it ain't over till its over fever. Expect more of the rally. For me, this is one time I'm willing to pass on lost opportunity. As 2nd ave has some good quotes on this concern...reaching for what could be the last point higher could become the most expensive one.

POG is not the only asset doing well and setting highs....price of agriculture too/DBA but that is only for the past two months. If you go back YTD, the boring way of just holding GLD would have netted 35%.

Over the last month I have noticed on my etf rankings that EWP/spain has had solid outerperformance when compared to europe and s&p. Certainly interesting to see Bill add a spanish telecomm to the line up.

Here is an excertp from Monday's IBD on Freddie Mac. Page A2

Moody’s fears big loss at Freddie
The second-largest U.S. mortgage lender may report even larger losses than forecast, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Freddie Mac last week announced a $2.02 bil loss for Q3. Moody’s said continued deterioration of the mortgage market could further hurt Freddie Mac. Credit Suisse had previously projected that Freddie Mac could lose as much as $5 bil on its subprime holdings next year. Freddie climbed 1.8% to 26.47.

Jasper

The bull is still alive, agreed, if you don't look outside the USA. Problem is most people are still valuing stocks in dollars, yes many are still making a profit in US dollars but the value of their dollars is going down. Someday they will have to spend those profits and find that they need not only the profit but also some of the original capital just to buy what they could a year ago.

With respect to Gold, I'm in Canada and my acct only shows a gain of about 9% YTD but my buying power on that 9% is up not down, so I guess I'm about even with the US investor with 35% profit?.

Gold in various currencies
http://tinyurl.com/37eeeh

Isaiah

Yes you are correct about my post from Wednesday.
Quasi pointed out my mistake & I later recanted my original post.

Sorry if I caused you or others any confusion.

All I can say is I was simply trying to scan to much info to fast & got it wrong.

That's not an excuse just is a reminder that I have to stay focused.

Have a good weekend.

Leisa.
I also have many, probably most of Kriwshnamurti's books ( paper and electronic)and have enjoyed watching his video interviews with Allen Anderson. I walk back and forth to work and listen to the audio versions of the interviews over and over again. I think he is excellent. Been very helpful to me. That is why I settled on the name.
If you want to email me direct... canarybill216@gmail.com

cyderman
I did find the place on the IB web site that shows interest rates. It is under "fees" then "interest and financing".
Thanks for your response.
Bill

"TradersQuest - The cara100 csv file is still showing pricing from Nov 15. FYI."

Corrected, thanks.

Everyone:
Please read Colin Twiggs report from today.

The explanations and graphic representations will set you straight.

Pay particular attention to the middle section discussing leverage and how $1 loss by HB&B levers to $10 lost, or $300 BILLION levers to 3 TRILLION, and how and where the rescue funds for HB&B will come from and has always come from......hint: rate cuts.

This is important, an excerpt: "An Irresistible Force"
"If we examine short-term rates, a self-reinforcing cycle [A > B > C] is evident since the 1980s, with each recession requiring more severe rate cuts by the Fed in order to stimulate the economy. Every artificial reduction in interest rates, however, merely compounds the problem, requiring even deeper rate cuts in the next cycle."

"It would be a mistake to ascribe falling interest rates solely to a decline in inflation. Money supply is growing at a steady click and there is strong evidence to suggest that purchasing power of the dollar is declining at a much faster long-term rate than the official consumer price index."

"The market is more powerful than any individual or organization, including the Federal Reserve, who may be able to effect a temporary shift from the market equilibrium, but opposing pressure will gradually build until it becomes an irresistible force. By attempting to defer the inevitable, the Fed is digging us into a deeper and deeper hole, with each wave bigger than the last."

Note how each wave of recession/rate cuts gets bigger and bigger. This coming wave?
TSUNAMI to the power of? Yep, TEN.

Any talk of bullishness in view of the charts, money flow, and the above information is, IMO, purely wishful thinking.

Please read the entire report entitled: "Strong Risk of a Crash".

Small provincial banks also affected by ABCP write-downs. Banks' president says it's a "serious financial event". Perhaps many other smaller banks will come forward?

Alberta's bank ATB Financial has set aside $79.6-million for potential losses and restructuring costs on asset-backed commercial paper, slashing the bank's second-quarter net income by 90%. Operating revenue dropped to $137.6-million, down $48.2-million or 25.95% over the secon