QID/SDS/DXD-

What if the two most important trading days in the US occurred the days before/after Thanksgiving and no one showed up?

That would teach those of us who live here a (much deserved) lesson in global economics (or global etiquette). Entirely possible that 90% of the world could NOT care less about our national holidays.

Long QID/DUG...

as for FXP:

“Can you believe at 3:59:45 FXP was @82.8x approaching 83, so on a whim I put in a [limit] order for 200 shares @82…”
Posted by: Isaiah64v4 at November 20, 2007 9:56 PM

Isaiah- well, i hesitated and walked away, you didn't->congrats (hot dog)->bet you see a two digit trading range in the FXP price today…good luck and don't spend it all at once ;)

Thursday I will enjoy my family.

Today and Friday I enjoy my friends here, and they helped me make some serious money today by queing me yesterday. FXP...Thank You 2nd!!!
I was right with Isaiah on your call.
Also reloaded QID.

Friday my dance card is still open.
Cha-cha-cha!

2nd

LOL....... I was lucky on that one. But I need to repent of my piggish ways...starting today.

Sometime when things are real slow I need to learn from you how to tell when it's time to sell and to get out of the way and not chase that last tick.

I have some DUG already bought, No QID as of now but I'm looking to reload and reload BIG.

FXP... thought about adding a little more if there is a pull back? What do you think... smart move or just stay with what I have?

RobBoss & moabmatt

I posted a message for you guys last night [November 20, 2007 10:03 PM ]

Hi,

The market is getting ready to open exactly at important support levels.

If these levels are to be broken by early excess of the first half hour, it can be like the opening of a floodgate.

This may even be more relevant because the holiday season in the US may mean that more electronic stop orders are placed than usual, and of course that speculators may want to benefit from that.

This may turn out to be an interesting session.

For disclosure purposes, I shorted the NDX yesterday at the close via buying puts, and am already having fun.

Let's dance!

Bill

Your "Comments & Outlook" section was

E x c e l l e n t today!

One question on the paragraph dealing with your gut feeling.

"I foresee a price for oil in the mid to high 70’s inside a few months and for gold in the low to mid 700’s"

You still believe there will be a 2nd leg to this gold bull run, possibly to $1000/oz?

I posted this this am on yesterday's discourse

Potash Corp

"Elena Viyella De Paliza who is a director of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) recently bought 1,500 shares in the
public market at US$112.76. Over the past 90 days, insiders have been net sellers of just under $17,000 worth of stock when
the price of option exercises is included. Meanwhile the share price has outperformed the market by 25% during the period.
This small selling is a bullish sign at this point in time given the rapid rise of the stock versus the market."

www.canadianinsider.com

Posted by: golfer at November 21, 2007 8:10 AM

To reinterate Maromatics excellent call....those leaving on holiday do what? Yep, they set stops to protect themselves from the downside.

Those left trading aren't buying, they are traders like us. So with no real buying the bias tends to be to the downside.

Add red Asia and look out below....

If we get nasty shopping news Friday lookout.

Hey 2nd,
Do you think it's to late to the party for SKF ?

There sure does seem to be plenty of pessimism and negativity here, almost to the point of being totally one-sided.

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Honor your stops, folks.

Gold chart

I'm looking at the INO.com gold spot chart and noticing these odd momentary spikes way down at the close of North American trading yesterday and the day before. Canadian news in each case reported the bottom of the spike as the "closing" price, (a bit of a ridiculous term for something that trades 24/6). Anybody have any idea why those spikes are showing or occurring? Is this some sort of manipulation or is it a data glitch?

Lots of chatter on the tube and elsewhere about how the Dow Industrials are perilously close to signaling a primary bear market per Dow theory. Some say it would take a close below the 8/16 close of 13,845. Others, a close below the swing low on that day (12,517).

Today will be "interesting" and I'll be curious to see if next week changes the climate much as U.S. traders return from their Thanksgiving holiday. But as 2nd points out, the rest of the world isn't sitting on their hands in the meantime.

Futures are very ugly right now.

Craig
Are you set up for after hours trading?

I heard it was really risky. Ture?

Oops, typo alert:

"Some say it would take a close below the 8/16 close of 13,845."

should be:

Some say it would take a close below the 8/16 close of 12,845.

I keep having visions of Fred Sanford, clutching his chest, exclaiming, "This is the Big One, Elizabeth!" :^)

Sometimes it is even wise to be out completely so we do not have the urge to sneak peaks at the market when we should be relaxing and enjoying whatever we do on holidays.

Like Bill says...it is a dance. Even at a dance we have to sit one out occasionally.

Best to all of you celebrating Thanksgiving Day.

1st - Happy thanksgiving to all who celebrate!

2nd - there is an article on a subscription web site so I can only get the preview blurb.

Major Mortgage Sector Shakeups
...And problems at Option One Mortgage Corp., which could soon be shut down, led to yet another executive casualty. (Nov. 20)

http://www.mortgagedaily.com/

Bruce- SKF- my policy is not to chase prices, so no opinion...plenty of other set-ups will present themselves today...

longer-term, really believe gold will be the move that could speed up your retirement:

"I foresee a price for oil in the mid to high 70’s inside a few months and for gold in the low to mid 700’s" add that scenario to the 3 year outlook, and you can plan your way to some serious returns...

started scaling into a few junior miners this week, and hope to hear more on this site in the next several months...you only need to hit one or two out of the park...

Isaiah,
Yes, but it pays to become VERY familiar with the stocks you may trade pre-market and after-market. This way you can recognize inconsistencies. Make sure you check the news from all sources to find out why there might be some price inconsistency on the equity you are watching.

I do better in the premarket, the aftermarket is usually a place of desperate chasers, IMO.
I did make a lot of money one time on Apple aftermarket, selling, not buying.

Example: I was short FNM yesterday into the close and shakily held....this AM I'm out with another $1.00. Maybe it gets killed, but I made some very good dough on FNM.

*NOW* 2nd can start to watch it for a squeeze! LOL!

Bill,
2nd_ave, jasper and Finger Lakes hit it dead on in yesterday's Discourse re: the 'Squawk' and 'the Rest'.

The scroll button works for me, as well as taking notes. Yeah, pen to paper in a journal!

I enjoy the daytrading banter between Isaiah, 2nd and Craig, as well as the commentary of FranSix, Kaimu and Genesis.

Alas, everyone will have a tipping point. Will it be five hundred posts per day?

My trading/investing style has forever changed for the better because of all of you. That is what I am thankful for. I hope to contribute more soon.

Cited this one in the past for readers.

Fixed income, nice dividend, preferred stock only. Not a trading vehicle, low volume, illiquid. Agriculture area.

CHS reports record earnings.

http://tinyurl.com/22wu2y

Disclosure: Long CHSCP.

Isaiah,
See 2nd's warning...don't chase up or down.

Let it come to you. If you chase you are on the front of the wave. When the price wave recedes, and it always does, you are left high and dry.
Wait for the tide.

TH's all about oil this AM, but XLE is not indicating oil strength.

2nd,
DUG could be a dangerous place to be. Granted, that oil and whole energy complex is overextended
by any stretch of the imagination. But with shaky
geopolitical outlook and looming dollar problems, (in spite of expected dollar bounce) DUG looks dicey.

Craig

Thanks for the after hours trading info and for the reminder not to chase.

This could turn out to be a most profitable and fun day.

Gobble...Gobble...Gobble

Bruce- DUG- true, but refiners have been saying the high prices are hitting their margins->still think the oil/gas sector corrects...if nothing else, needs to revert to (an ascending) mean...

FXP jumps out the gate 9 points
Craig you have to be verrrrrrrrry happy!

Out of FXP here. Gobble indeed.
Stillholdng QID.

Craig

I dumped FXP too

As Staples says...

"T h a t W a s E a s y"

talk about Fast$$$

"Gold chart

I'm looking at the INO.com gold spot chart and noticing these odd momentary spikes way down at the close of North American trading yesterday and the day before. Canadian news in each case reported the bottom of the spike as the "closing" price, (a bit of a ridiculous term for something that trades 24/6). Anybody have any idea why those spikes are showing or occurring? Is this some sort of manipulation or is it a data glitch?

Posted by manx928 at November 21, 2007 8:45 AM"

It's called "painting the chart". You'll see this in small cap stocks a lot. For example, shorts will be able to sell down the stock after hours or at the close on small orders to make it appear that the selling was strong and the price dropped significantly. Think guys like Cramer when he ran his hedge fund - making money through trickery and leading others to make bad decisions due to ignorance. As far as the gold trade, your guess is as good as mine...

NOT.V- adding at 4.05...

CrackerJack column from Herb Greenberg on Freddie Mac:

http://tinyurl.com/24427z

LOL! Yeah, over 11%!!! Sold at 90.49.
Of course that clears the way for higher, but no regrets!

sold 10% QID a second ago @ 41.68.

NOT.V- now it's at 3.95...craig- didn't you sell this last week at 4.93? didn't insiders exercise 500K options at 5.13? just pointing out a few divergences...

Hi,

FedWatch:

The FED conducted 2 open market operations today (so far). Considering the maturing operations, overall the FED has dried up 2,25 BN USD.

Dumped all of QID @ 41.63

Will reload later in day if I get the chance

2nd,
Agreed ! I think energy corrects a bit more down the line, once it seems recesion is inevitable and all the speculation (Hedge Funds etc.) are on the move out, we should have a fairly big move down.

isaiah- "talk about Fast$$$.." you worked hard for that trade, so suggest you take a different perspective...o/w it clouds your judgment...
take a look at DUG...it will start to move at some point...

Hi again,

The Fed just added another 5 BN, leaving a total ADD of 3,75 BN

This is a hudge liquidity problem.

Someone is probably liquidating

NOT.V:
Why yes, 2nd, aamof I did, then reloaded after reading about all those options at the aforementioned price of 15.13. Then the CDN dollar did the dosey-doe and it put me underwater a bit, which doesn't worry me as I haven't invested a great deal.

However, under $4 CDN is such a deal I will need to reconsider further allocation.

2nd

I have a small position already in DUG.... been looking to add...

Even with the market where it is today...

We were still able to sell our QID at a better price yesterday...

As Bill always says SELL INTO STRENGTH...Even Short Positions...

Kaimu,

Thanks for the posting on your art story. Everyone I have talked to or read about seems to have better success with art and real estate than stocks. My problem is that art is another thing to study and learn...

Like anything, you should only invest in things you understand (and enjoy).

Some of the most unlikely people have the best art collections...

one of my favs is Cheech.
http://tinyurl.com/3ce4x4

While this is probably old hat to long time Cara readers, if you're new to the game, here's Don Harrold showing how to use the advance/decline line to spot BS from the mainstream financial media:

http://tinyurl.com/3aut4p

(10 minute video)

I'm holding my puts on Rimm hoping for the downdraft. I have the Jan 106.62. I also plunged into GOOG and bought 1 Jan 650 put. Lets see those electronic sell programs kick in!!!

Great Market recap today Bill!!!

Rob.

QID- added a little at 41.50...still overdue for a serious sell-off in the Naz->i remember buying the QID a few times last summer in the low fifties thinking it would go to 70...
adding a little UNG also...

2nd

A step ahead of you on the UNG.....

But I am surprised you jumped into QID at this level... You must know sense something.

Anyone care to speculate where the loonie is headed?

isaiah- not really, just watching the action and pressing a bet->kinda feels like throwing another chip onto the pass line...;)

“Just remember, dancers, we have moved from Tango to Quickstep.”

Took the 14+ points and sold off remaining EEV @ 85.25

Keeping an eye on the Carry Trade “tell”

http://tinyurl.com/yqoeu6

2nd

Those people buying FXP right now... isn't that a dangerous play? So much could happen to the Asian market between the close of our market today and when reopens Friday.

isaiah- yeah, well some people like to live dangerously LOL...don't really know their situation->maybe they're long Chinese stocks and want to hedge...

SKF.....hello 110!

Bill:

I read today that Newmont has decided to proceed with the Franco-Nevada IPO.

2nd

don't want to become a pain here...but yesterday the bulls came back when the SP was testing a certain level. Could that happen again today and if so wouldn't it be wise now to pick up a few shares of ..say..SSO?

Speculation on the loonie....down

1. Reversion to mean
2. World Economy due for a breather, thus, lower commodity prices leads to a lower looney.
3. I have always believed that a $.88 to $.92 loonie to the USD was good for both the American Parent companies and their subsideries in Canada.
4. Bank of Canada getting between a rock and a hard place with high dollar and slowing economy...will lower interest rates and the dollar comes down.
5. I mentioned last week that the CDN $ and manufacturing was in this situation in the late 1950's and early 1960's and the dollar was pegged at I believe .92. While today's manufacturing sector may not be in the dominant position it was in that period I have to believe that a high CDN dollar is not that good for the CDN OIL industry.

isaiah- how many times can you expect someone getting burned buying these rallies to keep going back...i wouldn't...

ok
just a thought...bad one maybe... but a thought

Golfer

Thanks for thoughtful response on the Loonie. FXC, adieu!

The S&P 600 is below it's August low and the other indices are approaching the August lows quickly. All the indices are below their 200 day moving averages as well. It's still surprising to me that the bulls aren't fighting harder but maybe the news is that bad.

Rob.

Jaketh:

I am in the process of trying to determine the best way to play the companies I have in my portfolio that are listed both in Canada and the USA...i.e. assume a 10% drop in the loonie over the next ???? period of time...

I am playing with the numbers...I think I can short the loonie without shorting it...

This sort of thinking and playing with numbers is supposed to help me from losing my memory...

I had a GTC on NOT for 1K shares @ 4.10. It must have traded on the open. Bought at 4.05. At least they are fair in Canada.

2nd_ave;

good advice on getting burned on buying the rallies..

I mentioned yesterday that I took a beating in the early 2000's by doing that....at the time the MANTRA of the day was BUY ON THE DIP which I guess was thought up by the SELL SIDE...sure as hell worked on me

Golfer,

Yikes! Sounds tougher than a Sudoku puzzle. Let e know if you solve it.

Looking to take some lumps here but who cares...

2nd I think it would help me to understand what in sam heck you are doing if you give me an idea of what you are looking at when you buy or sell the QID? RSI, MACD, Support levels what?

Saying things like scaling into QID, adding a pinch here, taking a smidgen off there is both interesting and frustrating. I am really curious and totally lost how others are finding this useful if you are going on gut instinct and maybe your not.

I have a made a few mistakes this week on entering and exiting SDS and maybe you could teach me something.

2nd - what is the rationale for picking up UNG here? Thanks

The average investor is still up on the year but must be getting very nervous now. This has been a unique cycle in that HBB was not able to sell much of its inventory to the small investor at the top IMO. If the small investor starts selling ...

If the S&P closes under 1420/16 it puts it in a very weak position. I would expect someone to try and close it above that level. Someone tried yesterday to induce an oversold/double bottom rally off 1420 but it didn't work. Only so many people will try and step in front of this train before everyone learns not to.

Jesse's Crossroads Cafe defines the current state of the market for me perfectly: "Bounce or die".

i don't know, man...time to cancel the noon party/3pm taxi and get back to the trading desk..

today reminds me of the drills they were doing on my cruise this yr. However this time the passengers get to their life boat stations only to see the boats already 100yds away with people in 3 piece suits in them being escorted to safety.

it really saddens me. I don't think this will ever change. This being the conflict of interest in the markets. Americans are too passive and happy with their paycheck, false security of a job, to care enough beyond the prime time news.

If we as the public wanted more transparency and a level playing field it would be so easy if we could mobilize. If every individual investor just pulled out all their cash from their banks and brokerages and vow not to invest as a act of boycott, wouldn't this get the attention of our govt?

Just like this whole dependency on oil. If we as consumers collectively said "we will not buy another new car that runs on petrol" wouldn't the car manufacturers and govt be forced to change? there are enough used cars to supply the drivers of this country.

the more i think about this it really reminds me of the movie The Matrix. Everyone has opted to just take the blue pill and live in an ignorant bliss.

I think it was Socrates who said, "The unexamined life is not worth living."

Anyone see anything good to trade today...?

As Sgt. Schultz would says "I see noooootHING!"

NYUgrad

Love that quote by Socrates...

that will go into my daily "BC Community" notes.

thanks!

Adam- UNG simply an ongoing swing trade in the port->got started last spring and now i can't stop ;)

RE; Yahoo Index Components pages

Yesterday I posted links to yahoo finance pages that show the components of indexes with streaming prices.

Example
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EDJUSEN

I discovered this morning that those streaming prices are 15 min delayed.

Just thought I should make sure anyone using those pages realizes that.

Consumer Sentiment Lowest In Two Years:

http://tinyurl.com/2d5xrm

How's the Goldilocks looking today, Larry?

QID:
I watch a 1 min/3-4 hr chart. RSI, STOCH, MACD.

Today I've been buying on a 0 stoch. w/macd in neg territory.

Selling when price is right and RSI/stoch spike and macd in pos territory.

Today is not the normal pre-holiday trading session, so the power of the current downtrend is being expressed. Sellers are liquidating stocks and buying power is being overwhelmed, so prices continue to move lower.

The trading technicals of the stock market, having been weak for all November are approaching extreme readings (no panic selling yet, but expected very soon). This means that the time for a bottom in the markets is getting closer--perhaps in the next 1-4 weeks. There still is a lot of price risk in the market, but the time risk (using historical precedent) suggests a bottom in the stock market indices is near on the calendar. Stay tuned!

www.2globalmarkets.com

Well Well I just figured something out.

DUG & UNG are actually shorting the same thing. They both short the Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index=$DJUSEN.

Maybe I'm just slow to catch on & everybody else knows that already.

Please correct me if I am wrong about that.

BTW I'm long DUG

Lazarus

I maybe wrong but UNG is not a short... it's a U.S. Natural Gas Fund

DUG is a short and it shorts oil & gas

Also I am short in both cases....may carry DUG into Friday but most likely will sell UNG today at a profit....unless my dance instructor keeps on dancing with UNG.

A boycott of banks and brokerages would be catastrophic, unfortunately. There is roughly only $2,500 in physical cash per capita in existence, some of that in circulation outside the US. All other money exists as 0's and 1's. No chance you will be able to put it in your pocket.

If this financial system comes apart you will see a huge political revolution, and hopefully meaningful reform.

Isaiah

This is the blurb from Scottrade re; UNG & DUG

"Strategy for United States Natural Gas Fund LP

The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index"

Strategy for ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES

"The Fund seeks to invest primarily in futures contracts for natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, ICE Futures or other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, "Futures Contracts")."

So I guess I was wrong about what they actually short.

I would have sworn though that when I looked it up a couple of days ago that DUG shorted DJUSEN.

I'll have to try to go back & see if I can find out where I went wrong.

Larazus

Am I reading this right... that UNG is a short?
Is that the way you read it?

MikeNYC,

I just added a feature you requested to my RSI webpage. Try hovering your mouse over a ticker (if it doesn't work, hit Ctrl-F5 or whatever your browser wants to force it to refresh the page).

I arbitrarily picked a 5-day chart, and I haven't added the day's open/high/low/close, but I could change any of that if you want.

As always, feedback is welcome.

Jeff

p.s. we have completed some work on the spread between the U.S. federal funds rate and the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield. Since the mid-1970s, each time the difference between the two reached a large negative spread, stock market weakness eventually followed. The latest case of this occurred September 14, 2007.

The fed funds work confirms our March 2007 research findings (available as a pdf on our website) on stock market weakness that follows an inverted yield curve (spread between the 3-month U.S. T-bill rate and the 10-year T-note yield).

www.2globalmarkets.com

Bull Hunter:

Since you are a Hunter of sorts I thought this might interest you.

My daughter just bagged a 6by4 Buck deer this am. She has had this buck in her sights at various times over the last two hunting seasons but never had the right shot at it till today and she didn't wait to pull the trigger.

I guess its true that with patience the "(whatever) will come to you."

Ok so now I know where I got confused & suppose I still am a bit.
This is the blurb from Yahoo Finance re DUG

The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets to financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified.

Note this one specifically says Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index.

Ok so now I know where I got confused & suppose I still am a bit.
This is the blurb from Yahoo Finance re DUG

The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets to financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified.

Note this one specifically says Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index.

Isaiah

Yes that is the way I read it.

Oops, correction on last night's post. It was MikeNYC that recommended Val Tharp's "Trade your Way to Financial Freedom".

For what it is worth, I highly recommend it to any other noob's here looking to enter the market in a meaningful way.

What do you think the odds are of an inverse of yesterday??
IE yesterday morning we rallied until Europe closed. Then we faded.

Could we fade today until Europe closes then rally?

Korvus:

I asked yesterday who was responsible for that gadget but got no replies and I didn't have the time to search back (I was going to do it on the weekend.)

GREAT TOOL ...it has saved me much time as I was getting the data and putting it in a spreadsheet I designed.

Q. I have used it and note that I can set the number of past days I want but when I get the data there is a "current" and then the number of past days etc. Problem...the first set of data after current is NOV 19th....what then does the current data refer to...the RSI based on the close of the 20th or is based on today's data on a delayed basis?

Hmmm, don't know what you did Bill, but the blog lost all the lines seperating the posts.

At least on my machine...anyone else?

And blue HTML style links...

Nevermind, all gone on the reload. Weird.

not mine

golfer,

Congrats to your daughter!

I "hunt" Larry Kudlow. :^)

This is another reason I do not day trade...I cannot execute fast enough.

This is another reason I do not day trade...I cannot execute fast enough.LOL

Alter. Natural gas inventories released at noon today. Buildup expected 1B cu. ft., actual = 40M.
UNG up. Good for us heavily invested in UNG, holding multiple Dec. calls and the thing itself.

RE: QID

I also use a 1 min/4 hour chart, StockRSI; with CMF(5)instead of MACD (I find it better visually), and a 1% upper and lower trading band envelope.

Buying on StochRSI upward spikes when the price is near the bottom of the envelope and money flow trending positive; selling on downward spikes near the top and money flow trending negative.

"2nd I think it would help me to understand what in sam heck you are doing if you give me an idea of what you are looking at when you buy or sell the QID? RSI, MACD, Support levels what?"

geckojb- in general i don't use numbers...i just follow the market every day, and when a position feels too negative, i buy it...when it turns positive, i sell it...i've started to incorporate bill's daily/weekly/monthly rsi-7s recently for confirmation and/or the guts to go ahead...have a number of other tells from posters here that i've picked up along the way...

Too all my extended family here at bill cara's blog...

Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate around the world whereever you are..

I am thankful to have such a wonderful family and people here, that I do not even know helping me build a better future for my family...

I am so thankful to all of you here, especially Bill..

Bill, without you and your site I would be flying blind as to my financial future..Not anymore CRYSTAL BALL IS CLEAR HERE IN CHICAGO..

Can't wait to meet for a cup of coffee one day in the Bahamas...

Can I throw out an anual meeting for the Cara Community?

Happy Thanksgiving...

reenzo: just take Val Tharp's recs with a grain of salt. one of the "super" traders he was promoting ended up getting caught by the feds for marketing fradulent investment returns and stealing millions from his clients.

To his credit, Tharp did disclose what happened and I believe his book(s) do offer some important findings on trading/investment success.

Thanks all for the tips. Understanding the why behind things is the most important piece of following along. I am not interested in riding coatails here and doing what others. I want to learn for myself and develop what works for me after studying others.

Again, this is good stuff.

I'm now fully reloaded in Noront (NOT), MacDonald (BMK) and Fancamp (FNC). Topped it all off with a small position in Freewest (FWR).

Basketguy

Happy Thanksgiving...

save me some leftovers ....ok?

JWibbs:
Thanks and I agree!
I have learned, from studying all kinds of stuff on my own over the years, that any "top line" statement from any expert MUST be taken with a generous dose of skepticism unless you know absolutely every detail about that expert and their personal agendas (which we never do!)

Ex: in Tharp's book it is really easy to spot the naked promotion of his other seminars & books

Fair enough - we all gotta make a living!

What I try to do is look at the underlying method and use those tools to (quoting both Tharp and Neal Stevenson) "neurolingusitically hack" my brain.

Even the effort of trying to understand the "underneath" has benefited me more in my learning efforts than listening bright eyed at what is presented as primary substance.

ROFL, looks like while I was typing everyone was saying the same thing, hahahah!!!

Happy T-day fellow US of A'ers, and thanks indeed to Bill and everyone here!

Europe just closed & The Dow & Nas spiked upward.
May not be a trend but it is curious

Seamus,
Thank you for CHSCP. On the LT chart it's bottom is 25, although sloping downward over 4 years....doesn't seem to ever break that 25 low.
Starting a position.

golfer,

I actually am not the person who did the Google RSI gadget. We have a number of people all providing similar services in different ways, so it can get confusing. I maintain this page: http://rsi.korvus.net/RSIApp/RSIApp.html

Jeff

RE DUG and UNG

The way I read it DUG is a proshares double inverse of the "Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index", ie a double short fund of the $DJUSEN. Full details are on the Proshares web site.

http://www.proshares.com/funds/dug.html?Index

Here is a percentage chart of the $DJUSEN vs DUG, note I inverted DUG to make it easier to see.
http://tinyurl.com/39tpbo

As for UNG it is a long fund, "The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP" designed to track the percentage changes in the delivery price of natural gas. Full details on the UNG website.

http://www.unitedstatesnaturalgasfund.com/

Here is a percentage chart of the $NatGas vs UNG, correlation is not as good, I think its because the Stockcharts $Natgas continuous futures data is a little different. Interesting though as it tracks well up until the last couple of months, might have to due with the timing of when each database switches from the current near month to the next month. UNG switches when there are still two weeks left to expiry. Stockcharts often has up gaps when the month changes.
http://tinyurl.com/24e2ye

Happy Thanksgiving to all of our US friends

"Saying things like scaling into QID, adding a pinch here, taking a smidgen off there is both interesting and frustrating. I am really curious and totally lost how others are finding this useful if you are going on gut instinct and maybe you're not."

almost always scale into/out of positions in 20% increments, as no one is able to call a top/bottom...that explains a lot of the "activity"
beyond that, not sure what to say...if we're using the dance analogy, would assume most on the floor aren't stopping to figure out their next moves, right->actually, i don't dance, but i can tell you that most musicians don't stop to count time or analyze the next change while they're playing...

korvus

thanks for the site very usefull

Question: Is it possible to have your site in real time...meaning the rsi values reflect the current stock price of a stock

thanks aagain

RE DUG and UNG

I should also add that DUG is a short on oil and gas producers, equipment and services, as per the $DJUSEN index. (ie not short oil and gas as commodities) Note proshares also has the same thing in a long fund called DIG.

Where as the UNG fund is based on tracking the commodity Natgas. Also if you wanted to track oil as a commodity then you could look at USO "United States Oil Fund", not sure if there is a short fund directly on oil.

I just fixed a bug with chart placement when you've scrolled down. I also made it not show a chart by default since it seemed to make your browser load all the initial charts (and I don't want to make people load 100 charts for the Cara100). Finally, when you click on the * in the ticker field (or really anywhere that isn't the ticker itself) it will rotate charts between 5-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-day. I'm not sure the interface is that good, but I can tweak that later.

Bill - Message is on the way.

Quasi

Thank you. I was indeed confused.

Just closed my DUG position & am content.
Learning to "Dance" is exhilarating. LOL

Everyone have a wonderful holiday (For those who do)
Time now to put on my other hat & go play Airport. HA HA

To Bill. Thank you. The effect of your work is so widespread and so grassroots that its mostly unseen. But you are helping me. My wife of 32 years is impressed at how much I am learning and how much I care about it.
To Korvus. thanks for the tool. Its awesome, and its graphic picture of the RSI indicators is a teaching tool for us learners.
To all posters here, even the ones no longer around, you are like a family. I may not buy into your perspective but I see where you stand.
JMHO...don't break up the blog into threads. A sorter device or a chat room on a topic after the blog would leave the open forum and the creative atmosphere as the instigator of further possibilities.
Peace from the north Puget Sound
Gray

Korvus

I just looked at your site and used it for some of my stocks and it is EVEN BETTER...same q..is the data I see today's or from yesterday's close?

TIA

Fred, may I ask, why fully reload now when gold, per Bill's expectations, may drop to the low 700s? I have a position, but I am waiting for the selloff to load up more. Most of those stocks have gone up too much (except perhaps FWR), and may come down hard before lifting off again.

Several stocks have triggered buy alerts for me in the last couple of days because they have reached my buying points, but I am not buying anything other than UNG which is nicely uncorrelated with the market.

sv/golfer,

Right now it's using yesterday's close, as I use the daily historical data from Yahoo Finance and they won't give you the current day that way. But I'm looking into pulling down a 20-min delayed quote from somewhere and giving a second set of RSI values that include that as the last datapoint. But first I want to clean up how I pull down the daily data, so it may be a week or so before I add that.

Can I throw out an anual meeting for the Cara Community?...basketguy

or a "family get together' which in time could become a "family reunion."

Korvus

Keep up the great work

thanks

Korvus:

Great job...it sounds as if you are having fun at what you do.

Nasdaq just popped avove it's 200 day then got dragged right back below it. It would be great if the 200 day became resistance now instead of support. I'm still nervous about Black Friday and the holiday mood taking hold, getting people in the buying mood.

What are your wive's plans for Christmas shopping? More or less than last year. Iphone and Ipod? or Blackberry?

We are spending more this year but not by much.

Rob.

Korvus:

It seems like you are having fun doing what you do..GREAT JOB

It just popped above it and got dragged back down again!!

Rob.!

Golfer...

May I ask how old your daughter is?..

Was into guns growing up, but only as target practice no hunting. My wife is totally against it...Had numerous guns in my house as a child and would like to someday take my son out on a good hunt...

I remember those days fondly with my father..Every week he would take us to the shooting range..Great way to blow off some of the excessive energy I had as a boy...

My brother is into bow hunting, but I do not have the patience for it...Maybe it was the ritalin I was on as a child?

Can anyone tell me if using the RSI method works for ETF's as well as it might for individual stocks? I am looking at entering into long term positions into a few overseas ETF's at some point but want to increase my chances of entering in at a good long term price. (EZY-Brazil and India ETN) are one such long term investments I want to make at some point.

Since I am looking more at the long term for this kind of investment I am thinking I can use the RSI method coupled with some very basic long term charts showing support. I am thinking that it would be ideal if some of these over-extended bourses would retreat to a long term support line and then the RSI AZ would show a go?

Thoughts on this would be appreciated.

Wavesmash - ETFC hit my objective and I bailed at 4.22.

Q: What's the difference between a pinata and the Plunge Protection Team?

A: You can beat a pinata.

The PPT certainly cleaned up today's mess in a hurry. Unbelievable.

I have livestock so I'm no tree hugger, but I about pinched the head off a hunter here on Sunday.

I watched this beautiful five pt buck growing up this year....we are on an island so only bow or shotgun hunting. Idiot boy shoots this buck, a long shot, with a shotgun-slug. Wounds it and it runs back onto my place. Fricking idiot.
I turned my farm upside down for this chuckle-head and couldn't find it. So now there i likely a very dead rotting deer nearby.
If you are going to hunt, for crying out loud, learn how to shoot, the range, and where to put the damned round to kill humanely.

Otherwise, Safeway, (note the name of the store) is perfect for city folks wanting red meat.
End of rant.

2nd,
I think what the poster was asking is what kind of share numbers are you trading to reach your ultimate full position dollar wise. Like many trading fundamentals say not to invest more than 15K usd per trade for money management So if you were going to invest/trade 10K dollars, you would scale in 2K dollars/scale for the 20% principle you adhere to. That is a personal question many may not want to share. If you do, what is your peak dollar management policy per trade?

SiO2,
I'm trading McFauld's Lake plays not investing in them at this point. They have been swinging up and down wildly. I clear house when there is a rapid pop of 10+% over my cost base and reload when I think a 20+% pop is possible. The range keeps changing though so it is a gamble. If I get caught in a big downdraft I will just hold. There will be play in these for a long time. I've already turned my risk capital in this basket five times and have doubled the capital. Also, but not relevant in my decision, they are not gold stocks. I've got 6% of my portfolio in the basket. Compared to my ugly red holdings in KRY, VAL, CNU, EVR and some others this play is relatively safer. I am not suggesting anyone follow.

Here's an interesting read.

http://tinyurl.com/yqceqm

"Dollar Poised for Drop to `Final' Support, Bank of America Says"

The gist is that BOA says final technical support for the dollar is at 73.92 which BOA predicts it will breach by year end because BOA says the fed will cut rates in December and in the next two meeting after that as well.

If that happens the dollar will be in the low 60's by then. The financial system must be in terrible shape, more terrible than they're revealing to cut rates three more times and butcher the dollar like that. We could see gold in the thousands and oil in the 130's by tax time if BOA is right.

Rob.

geckojb...

I used the RSI to buy into the QID when it broke under 36.00 and back above 36.00 bought QID all the way down to 34 and change..

Would work great I think on the Etf's as well..

EWZ for example looks to be getting close to a buy window, but I want to see the whites of the sellers eyes when they are selling these things at any price..We have seen it in the financials already, but not broad based

I like others here have been waiting for that washout day, that we really have not seen...

I want one more heavy down draft, then I will jump in with both feet (metal stocks only of course:)...

Does anyone know of a retail ETF to play Black Friday?

Thanks, Rob.

I don't know if it's the PPT. Everyone is expecting a rally to start anytime based on oversold levels and the magical 10% correction number. Some people are brave and step in first. What is strange is that the biggest bulls are now bearish, and the biggest bears (like Doug Kass) are now bullish. I guess it is the difference between those that only react to the market and those that also understand the underlying structural issues.

RTH is a retail ETF.

I believe that the discussions have said that using gold miner stocks is not a good way to invest in gold currently due to their rising costs and diminishing returns. Is that true?

If so, what's a good way for a punter to invest in gold? The ETF GLD doesn't have options.

It's rainy and cold in St. Louis; I've got all day to play and my Scottrade screen seems like it's locked in time. Sold everything that needed selling and can't think of anything to buy. Me thinks Hell must be like this.

Not everyone, and, for what timeline? Short term we may well get an oversold bounce...but what about longer term?
I get a market letter from a well known blogger with the big view so to speak, who is well connected with several other research/investment houses and it warns of a DOW sell signal and potential for 20-60% downside from there.
Although we still haven't closed below the 12846 number, we sure plumbed those depths today.

Just remember that picking bottoms is a fools game. Better to let the market tell us when there is a trend change. Confirm it and then bet it. Ie: RSI, MACD, etc. "Defense" is your best friend in this market. "One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world." J. Livermore

I think the NOT.V train is leaving

Valgold released this announcement today which I think is modestly positive.
During the summer of 2007, ValGold drilled 35 core holes on the Los Patos occurrence and its satellite zones. The drilling outlined a mineralized zone having a minimum strike length of 160 metres ("m") traceable down plunge for 280m. The average true width of the Los Patos zone is estimated to be in the order of 19.5m (64 ft). The Los Patos mineralization appears to be continuous from surface downwards and remains open in all directions. A second drill program is planned for 2008 to expand the Los Patos mineralization and to drill test the other gold occurrences along the Los Chivos Shear Zone.

The check assays are highly encouraging. The results show good agreement with the original assays with an overall average absolute variance of less than 10% over a range of -22.8% up to +54.0%. The samples for check assays from the remaining holes are being prepared and shipped with the expectation of results early in 2008.
http://tinyurl.com/24b2a8
Trading volume is 340,000 shares which is huge for VAL and the share price is down another 9%. Disclosure: I'm long VAL.

stktrader- not sure which poster you're referring to, so i'll direct a reply to you...share numbers are irrelevant, right->enough said...dollar amounts risked are highly dependent on risk profile->have 3 kids, one in college, so percentage-wise keep it sane...if you're asking about port size, well, let's just say we're on track to retire in about 15 years, and we have no plans to downsize our standard of living or leave the bay area ;)

Craig,

Thanks, Rob.

Problem with RTH is the concentration on very few names. If I recall right, 1/4 is in WMT+HD and another 1/4 in TGT+LOW+AMZN.

XRT tracks S&P retail and offers greater diversification.

JML

BillySundance, can you elaborate? Its up 2.63% per Stockcharts but still rsi40+
tia
Gray

Craig

Can you give more details in regard to your last comment?

"I get a market letter from a well known blogger with the big view so to speak, who is well connected with several other research/investment houses and it warns of a DOW sell signal and potential for 20-60% downside from there.
Although we still haven't closed below the 12846 number"

"One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world." J. Livermore

I'm living proof of this! LOL

basketguy:

My daughter is 37 and I am not a hunter and do not like guns in the house. Having said that, as I write, my wife and I are getting ready to go over to the daughter's house where I will watch my grand children while my WIFE (65) and daughter go out for the late day hunt. My daughter started to hunt and fish in her 20's...bow,mussel,rifle, skeet and trap.

Ritalin???

I taught school for 30 years and it was only in my last ten years that I came into contact with children on Ritalin...heavy stuff man...I never really believed in its use. I would like to hear your take on it now that you are an adult and a father.

If so, I can have Bill give you my e-mail address.

Wild A** questions
Will the PPT be taking the day after Thanksgiving off?
Are any day traders keeping pm stocks over the US holiday...just in case?
peace
Gray

Photogray,

I just saw the big jump in NOT.V from around $4 to $4.35 which occured pretty quickly and didn't encounter much resistance. Volume from today has far surpassed that of the last two days. Looking at the charts it seems (and as Bill suggested) this one was walked down on very low volume the last two days during the general market declines.

I didn't mean to imply that RSI was in the AZ or anything, just that it is beginning to rebound and has been topic of conversation here recently.

DOW theory says the DOW transportation and industrial indexes closing below key support is a DOW sell signal. Those levels are DJTA 4672 and DOW 12846

2nd

Do you still have your UNG position from this AM?

I was up a good bit but now it'll only pay the commission and buy a cube of PESPI? The last tick syndrome nab me again.

:^)

Jumble,

Thanks, Rob.

Golfer..

I was on Ritalin back in the 70's..I think I was one of the early test cases..

Would love to answer any questions you may have and you can have Bill send me your email..

And yes as a father now I WOULD NEVER GIVE IT TO MY SON..

Craig

Thanks...I'll keep an eye on these numbers.

Craig, see my comment upthread about Dow theory confirmation. I'll be convinced when we close below that 8/16 swing low of about ~12514. If that happens, it's time to batten down the hatches, up periscope, and dive, dive, dive, etc., etc.

That said, it was curious how that 12846 was defended earlier today. Same as yesterday. In any case, I expect these are just skirmishes as the real battle will happen next week.

Craig:

Totally agree with you. We live in an area where hunting and fishing have always been a hunting and fishing area but still there are a FEW that cause us a problem. Our biggest one is with the "night shoot from vehicle "hunters."

My daughter's buck today dropped within 20 yds from the hit.

isaiah- not every position is intra-day...and time horizons on any given position can change at any time...not in a selling mood today, maybe b/c jwibbs (check out his mar07 report) and craig have my antennae up->some moves will buy you a nice vacation, others can cut a year or more off your retirement date...i don't think the shorts are panicking as much on rally attempts right now...just my take...

isaiah- not every position is intra-day...and time horizons on any given position can change at any time...not in a selling mood today, maybe b/c jwibbs (check out his mar07 report) and craig have my antennae up->some moves will buy you a nice vacation, others can cut a year or more off your retirement date...i don't think the shorts are panicking as much on rally attempts right now...just my take...

basketguy: you said "EWZ for example looks to be getting close to a buy window"

I looked at this and the RSI's are in the 50's. Are you looking at some other data point?

I appreciate your response.

Friends, I'm seeing positive RSI divergence on all the major US indicies, and this from low (<30) 7 day RSI levels. It's very hard for me to short this market, and I'm actually thinking that we may be due for a good pop short-term. Based on the close today I may enter an index long position (I like that EEM is holding the 145 level so far, although it broke it intraday.)

Friends, I'm seeing positive RSI divergence on all the major US indicies, and this from low (<30) 7 day RSI levels. It's very hard for me to short this market, and I'm actually thinking that we may be due for a good pop short-term. Based on the close today I may enter an index long position (I like that EEM is holding the 145 level so far, although it broke it intraday.)

Basketguy:

I didn't think you would.

I have to go so it will be a while before I contact Bill.

If there are any Green Bay Packer fans out there I hope you haven't forgotten that fateful Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit in the early sixties when that great Packer team went into the game and all I cantell you is that it wasn't a pretty sight for those Packer fans dressed in their green and gold. It was a pretty sight for me though. But hey, past results cannot guarantee future returns...maybe the Packers can pull it off.

Craig re: CHSCP think you’ll like the dividend @ 7.5-8%. As stated, preferred shares, etc.

In lieu of all sideline cash in M/M, nice place to store, especially when subject to dividend tax rather than interest tax. But fundamentals of agriculture sell it to me.

See gold, PMs, agriculture and some commodities (i.e. iron ore) as the place to be after the pullback. Sort of fits the Don Coxe strategy. Now all we have to is apply the tactics Bill mentions.

Empathize with your viewpoint on the deer hunter. Have a good Thanksgiving!

Dave, I see the same divergences on the hourly SPX. But I've seen this before lately, and it has not held, but rather turned into what Elder calls a "Hound of the Baskerviles".

If you're aiming to short that you should look for places near well-defined resistance so you can recognize your mistake quickly if the move keeping going up.

One way to get around that game is to use a buy/write option strategy. That's what I was doing earlier today with SDS - i.e., buy some shares covered with calls a few dollars below and buying some puts at a lower strike. The idea is the difference between the premium on the calls and the puts would lock in a pretty good profit no matter which way the market moved. I couldn't get a fill at a price I liked, however.

geckojb..

ezy..Is what I meant RSI 14 @ 34.08

This market can rally all it wants...

Next year longs will be wishing for a DJIA that used to trade for around 13000...

NOSOF NOT.V now 4.55 US...Up from 4.00 this morning...

BG, Just be careful, that wish might be for DJIA 10000!

number2son, actually I'm watching these divergences on the daily RSI, and I'm thinking of taking a long position. The market close will be a good guide I believe.

Reloaded the truck up on QID down to @40.43

Looks like a possible end of the day move here for it. This might be either an early Xmas gift or a real Thanksgiving Turkey for me.

Fred..anyone

Does FNC trade on the OTC pink sheets and if so what ticker...?

Looks like you've made a nicely timed move, Isaiah. Watching the action. Here's to an early xmas.

Fred

No turkeys for you today!

Thanks for the note on the NOT/BMK/etal earlier. I added a bit and sold for a good gain today. Still holding my re-entry into NOT.V from last week waiting for that $5 world to return.

BillF: Options on Gold ETF

DGL - Powershares Gold
DBS - Powershares Silver

have to wonder where the bids are coming from...are funds required to rotate into other sectors when liquidating financials and housing?

Ah, took profits, almost all cash for this turkey.

Did get 1/2 position in Seamus' pick o' the day.

Those into NOT.V below or near $4 CDN....like 2nd...good job! 4.50's now (or 15 mins ago)

GS- things are looking up for whoever owns those dec 210 puts...

craig- NOT.V- thanks for the alert...out of (only) this morning's buy at 4.52...

moabmatt

I think I'll keep the gift wrapped until Friday.
[hope this is not another piggish move]

Maybe the foreign players in our market might get nervous with our market closed tomorrow and reports of a possible poor "black Friday" will cause them to dump early Friday.

I left you & RobBoss a post last night at
10:03 PM

What will the mutual fund managers do on Friday now that they are headed to negative for the year?

My pleasure!

northvan

Your gold ETF: DGL

Is that for gold mining stocks or gold bullion or both?

Isaiah,
Don't beith a piggy....if you are positive into turkey day and it's a trade......you know what to do. QID isn't an investment

Okay, WAIT until we see if we close above 12845....doesn't look good now.

The folks who are buying FXP have guts!

don't like the fact taht 3 of the 4 horseman are green for the day.

The DGL Gold ETF uses futures contracts to reflect the price of gold.

From Yahoo Finance:

The investment seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on gold and is intended to reflect the performance of gold. The fund is nondiversified.

DUG- trimming back 20%...what the hell...

Short this thing.....

Funny--thought I'd share. Good news: "near term fear may be picking, but there is little else to legitimately push this market higher." Bad news: same. Quoted from Minyanville.com

uh-oh->DJIA undercuts low of the day...

GOOG/RIMM still in the green...

2nd,
My comment was to the 12:51pm post today. I would never ask about ones portfolio size. What I think was of interest to that poster if there was a poster was the size in dollars of a given position so as to determine a given traders allocation of funds to one trade. That can be of interest to a new trader so as to determine his own size as a weighing tool. Charles Kirk has a million dollar portfolio by his own account and never puts on a stock trade over 15K usd. On the QQQQ he will apply 100K or greater like creating his own mutual fund. I like the 15K usd rule. It keeps things under control. 10K might even be better. It's different for each traders personality, income and age. A lot can happen in 15 years. Life happens while we make plans. I have a friend that went from a multi-millionaire to driving a Volkswagon Bug in short order. He started a brokerage firm and sold it to another brokerage firm that paid him in stock. The broker went broke and he lost with them. He later got a job with Merrill Lynch as a broker and lived an above standard lifestyle but not the millionaire he was. Life can hit you fast.

Northvan - Thanks.

what a finish!

what a finish! 20% off QID at the checkered flag...

Yeow, new lows.....
I had to buy ultras into the close, especially DXD.

Europe and Asia should be interesting.

Well, what did you do Isaiah? Carrying QID into Friday?

BillF:

You're very welcome. I had the same thought just a couple of days ago.

Ho...Ho...Ho

QID has been very very good to me.

I loaded up an hour ago and it jumped 1.13 since then; but I didn't sell. Maybe a big mistake. I'll see Friday.

Everyone have a nice Thanksgiving and I'll be looking for you all first thing Friday. Maybe we can all find some good Black Friday shopping specials here at the exchange.

Thanks Mr Bill for your insight. I try to use it everyday. Especially the "let the market come to you" wisdom. Saved me from buying high many of times so far.

Unless my data source is wrong, the S&P500 just closed below the 12/31/06 price:

12/31/06 Today
S&P 1418 1417
DJIU 12463 12799
Compx 2415 2562
ND100 1757 2006

moabmatt

Yea....... couldn't pull the trigger...

Just like what the women say about men.

"once a pig always a pig"

Oh Yeah!! Thank goodness I had the nerve to hold my GOOG and RIMM puts. I was down quite a bit for awhile:) But now I'm up and all the primary supports were broken hard. Even the S&P finished below 1420. Dow below the sell signal. Everyone on the short side couldn't ask for any better.

Now if Black Friday is good they may push above support but what does Dow theory say?

Do institutional people use the Dow sell signal as a guide where they will sell or as a head-fake to make us stay short into a monster rally attempt?

Rob.

Crap, I tried like heck to get a fill on SDS in last 1/2 hour. Schwab let me down.

Thanks for nuttin', Chuck.

Craig,

"Isaiah,
Don't beith a piggy....if you are positive into turkey day and it's a trade......you know what to do. QID isn't an investment"

I know.... I may of messed up. Tomorrow I'll check into rehab. I need to shake this last tick syndrome.

Before today, there hadn't been a Dow Theory primary bear sell signal since September 1999.

Isaiah - 2nd, thanks for the exciting finish. Really did feel like a race... checkered flag and all.

Happy Thanksgiving to all in the community. Bill, thanks for sharing.

Peace out

isaiah- no, i think you're OK...still holding 60% of a "full" position in QID/DUG->but wish i had held on to all of it...sometimes you want to double-down in cards, this may be one of them->craig played it best->won one hand intra-day, and anted up again on a good deal=equivalent of doubling down ;)

Quite the dance this week. Got my toes stepped on very hard by Valgold (VAL), Everton (EVR) Golden Valley (GZZ) and West High Yield (WHY). I need a Christmas rally or my accountant is going to have some harsh words with me. It's a good thing I'm not married!

Noticed MU (8.08 close) hit a yearly low today and closed with D/W/M RSI7 of 14/19/16. Received an analyst downgrade citing memory price difficulties over the next few quarters. Looks oversold. There will be a time for this one, but I think it will be awhile.

A lot to be thankful for in my household. Going to have a "No Electricity Day" - fire up the wood stove, take a walk in the Maine woods; a loaf of bread, a jug of wine and my 'Thou' beside me in the wilderness. :)

Good holiday/day off to all.

Think it was 2nd that saw a DUG move through the mist earlier today.....Thanks!

My Motley Fool CAPS position today is Rank: 196 out of 39862. I wish I could monetize that. LOL

Man O' man Bill, I'm having a blast!
You gotta love this blog!

I think you're alright Isaiah, DOW sell signals don't grow on trees! Note the date in Novice's post....Sept 1999....by March 2000 my Dad's acct was 1/2 it's former glory. Ouch.

Not this time.....

No electricity day...I like it. We have that unofficially sometimes. Changes one's perspective immensely.

Enjoy the holiday everyone.

Hi Bill,

I had a lot of fun...

Best wishes for Thanksgiving.

number2son -

What problem did you get from the desk? I haven't gotten any mishaps of late with them (after a tough stretch of unsatisfactory fulfillments a couple of years back). Yet I'm always monitoring their general performance.

Re. Dow theory.
A day later, we got what I thought would be avoided for now (outright sell signal). Tells you how much I foresee the market's moves. Anyhow, I am with you watching the 12,750-12,450 support area (confluence of Feb. Highs and Aug. V-bottom). If this market continues to slice through (toward the lower end of the band) at the same speed as the recent weeks decline, next stop would be between FY2000 highs (11,750) and Mar. Lows (12K).

JML

2nd_ave at November 21, 2007 3:35 PM

"have to wonder where the bids are coming from...are funds required to rotate into other sectors when liquidating financials and housing?"

Yes a lot of funds are not allowed to hold much cash thus have to be fully invested according to the allocation guidelines of the fund. IE most can't be 100% in real estate last month and now 100% in commodities.

geckojb at November 21, 2007 3:47 PM

"What will the mutual fund managers do on Friday now that they are headed to negative for the year?"

I think they will do what they always do, collect expense fees and recommend to clients that it is a good time to put some more money in the account.

http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

"What problem did you get from the desk? I haven't gotten any mishaps of late with them (after a tough stretch of unsatisfactory fulfillments a couple of years back). Yet I'm always monitoring their general performance."

Jumble, I was trying to get a fill on a call option buy/write. The spread on the option b/a was 30 and I couldn't get them to concede any part of that spread. Usually, that isn't a problem.

I'll called and whined. The rep checked the tape but found my stock and option orders never matched up. So I'm outta luck.

I also got socked for over $700 in car repairs today. Sometimes you just have one of those days. ;)

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Bill, Paul Thornton paid his first visit to BNN today, http://broadband.bnn.ca/?vid=22780 , quite liked him. He discussed currencies and says that China will know when the peg advantage has gone, and will unpeg once the USD has fallen enough. Discussions starts at around 23:00 of the video. He says that the world is now a giant shopping mall and Canada won't be too affected. His recommendations: get out of the market, 80% cash.

Bill:

Did you notice the music change at precisely 3:00pm once again? Dancers moved from Tango to Quickstep. Is everybody having fun?

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 21, 2007 4:08 PM

I think you are having fun watching "everyone having fun." My gut feeling says you have never passed a roller coaster without riding it at least once.

Please send BASKETGUY my email address when you get a chance.

Forgot to Thank you.

Flight to quality begins with a bang in Asia:

http://tinyurl.com/296hmd

"The global credit crisis has hit Asia with a vengeance for the first time, triggering a massive flight to safety as investors across the region pull out of risky assets.

Yields on three-month deposits in China and Korea have plummeted to near 1pc in a spectacular fall over recent days, caused by panic withdrawls from money market funds and credit derivatives."

For those of you that think Asia is immune to slowdown and credit issues, please read this.

number2son -

I guess that you fell victim to a bare-bone replacement crew ahead of the holiday weekend unwilling to vary from their strictest instructions. SDS options are too illiquid for my taste anyway. Good luck next time.

JML

MOAB,
Wow! Thank you for providing that link. Can you say "Tsunami."

PENN WEST ENERGY TRUST -CURRENT YLD 15.3%
Bill or anyone... heard any negative news on this senior Canadian energy trust? One commentator mentioned a slight negative reaction to a recent merger/deal.The Alberta tax proposal has also clouded the stock but the impact is years away.Perhaps it's carry trade action.

Post merger... production for next 12 months is projected at appx 205 million barrels of light oil per day.

In the last 30 days the price has dropped from near 34 to today's close of $27.39...a 20% drop
Nov dividend 34cents Canadian/35cents USD Current yield over 15.3%.

Comments?

stktrader- thanks for the clarification...also hear you loud and clear on how fast one's life can change->regardless of all that crap about money not being able to buy you happiness->if disney were to design a racetrack called "life without financial security"->the ride would give you the sensation of speeding without a seatbelt while arguing with the wife and kids...

The energy trusts of Canada (my father has Penngrowth:PGH) especially Alberta have taken it on the chin. From what I understand that is because of the Alberta tax. Now it's settled and you know that those companies/shareholders will have to pay.

Dad is in PGH with a 15% dividend but that dividend depends on the Canadian dollar. As the C$ increases in value so does his *monthly* dividend, same with the opposite. As I understand it, the Canadian govt takes 15% of his dividend payments but he can write it off on his US taxes.

It's good if you think the US will continue to loosen, oil/gas will hold it's value and the C$ will stay above 1:1.

Have fun...

astral25,

A good place to check analysts opinions of various Canadian stocks, including income trusts is http://www.stockchase.com/ . RBC has updated their ratings on the oil and gas trusts, and gave Penn West a sector perform, average risk, with a price target of $28.50.

I like Crescent Point Energy Trust (CPG.UN) because it has both gas and oil and has most of its fields in Saskatchewan (not Alberta). It has had quite a run lately, so you might want to look for a better entry point.

Is anyone familiar with MF Global (formerly Man Financial)? Should I be concerned that they are "the world's largest derivative broker?"

I am thinking of moving my accounts there since they accept Canadian RSP accounts and will allow stop-loss trading on options.

http://www.mfglobal.ca/index.html
http://tinyurl.com/26dyey

Someone had asked about longer term investment ideas and I think the Canadian banks are starting to look good in here. I am specifically looking at Bank of Montreal, symbol BMO in New York and Toronto as it has fallen the hardest of the major banks.

The stock is cheap as it the lowest it's been in 3 years, it's P/E is 10.7, forward P/E is 9.4, yield is 5%. The Canadian Banks have suffered in sympathy with their US counterparts, but have a true oligarchy in Canada and all have ROE's in the 20% range. They also have some subprime exposure, but the write-offs have been very small compared to their equity. BMO's totaled $0.50 per share for Q4 and will still have Q4 earnings of $1.36 per share.

There's still come risk here as BMO has comitted to supporting 2 SIV's, but that is why the stock is so cheap (as opposed to some of the other Canadian Banks) and I believe that they would not be doing this if the risk was high. It's also a case of catching a falling knife, but the 5% yield will provide support and this is not at risk. I don't think I've ever lost money buying a solid business with a 5% yield.

Once this asset-backed security mess gets cleared up, the stock should move back to the $70 range it traded back at the start of the year. If this takes 2 years to play out, your return will be 37% or 18% per year. If the financials continue to fall down, I will be out around $50.

at some point all of us will begin to trust the downtrend to the point of buying (ultra-shorts into) the rallies and holding (them) into the sell-offs...tip of that iceberg for me may have been the 251pm post today, but i'll have to save that decision for the rearview mirror...just wasn't interested in selling today...anyone else?

everyone has a c/w/s story about buying (for example) yhoo in 1997->how many times did you watch the price rise day in/day out before you just had to get in...only to worry about it for weeks...until if finally became clear it wasn't going down->and you stopped worrying about it going down?

unlike the topping process, todd harrison points out that the bottoming process is much faster and usually culminates in a "point..." so it will be harder to catch the entire move down, and you won't have as much time to enjoy it...however, it doesn't change the fact that we still need to progress through the same mental stages->we're going to finally jump in (on the short side) after watching prices fall day in/day out->and it's not going to end till we stop worrying about the market going back up...

bb, re. owning Candian banks, if you can, watch the bnn video link I posted earlier. Lots of questions about banks (recommendation was to stay away from them).

2nd, Craig, Isaiah et al.,

You guys are absolutely inspirational. Thanks for sharing your up-to-the-minute, blow-by-blow accounts with us.

Regards

MikeNYC - a couple weeks ago, you posted a note about the NinjaTrader platform (free download and historical data from yahoo finance). I see it also works with online brokerages like Interactive Brokers and Tradestation. I'm still with eTrade. May move to one of the others if I like the platform.

I just downloaded and will be goofing around while I watch Green Bay beat up Detroit tomorrow.

Okie, T-day prep is done and now I am looking at things from today....what a day!

Is it meaningful to check monthly SPX levels over a 5y period? I am looking at the chart and trying to see what makes sense.

My read (my really inexperienced,newly educated read) of the Daily 5y chart shows SPX broken and next support around 1340-1350 based on 200d moving avg.

The weekly 100d mvg avg has the 50d broken and next support at 1390ish on the 100d.

Is looking at the day/wk/mon values a function of your personal time horizon? Or are you looking for different buy/sell signals based on those views? At this point I am just trying to see if I am looking at charts and seeing if I see what they "say", lol!

Do you look at the moving avg lines for your price targets, or the last sideways period, how the two "dance" together.....

uh....or do we throw all of it into a blender with tequila and pretend we know what it all tells us?

korvus,
Sorry I didn't reply earlier to your posts. I'm visiting the folks for the holiday and I'm really internet challenged here. I'm sitting at the McDonalds in Lisbon CT, logged at 1.50/hr.

I'm playing with the RSI generator and I noticed you are starting to get better ads. I'll be able to dig in more after the weekend.

I'm also going to dig into the feature sets of those blog "comment manager" programs I posted about. There have been a LOT of posts about comments the past two days and I can't help wondering if there are features in those programs that would really help people use this site.

My opinion is all the comments should remain here in one place. It really helps me get a picture of the flow of the market when you guys who are hopping in and out are reporting what you are experiencing. And I can always just scroll past what I do not read.

That said, I also think a comment tagging/categorization feature would really help. Posters could tag their comments "trade" or something like that, and those who don't want to see those wouldn't have to. And obviously some sort of improved comment search is very much needed. There is too much good information that just rushes by and is hard to re-locate.

Lastly, a comment ignore button would probably help, too. Those who don't want to read my rambling, epic length comments would probably happily add me to that list. I understand.

I'll let the technical team Bill is assembling know what I turn up. I'm sure they are looking into it now. And if he hires a MT pro, well, I'd guess a person like that would have it covered.

McDs is closing. Gotta run.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Happy Thanksgiving Mike!

Happy thanksgiving everyone.

What a feast of knowledge this site has been. Thank you, everyone. I hope you have the best Thanksgiving ever! Remember "If it's going to be, it's up to me."

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Sorry, addicted, can't stay away....

From the above reading I am combining 2nd's last comment about the acceptance of a bear market, with Bill's short term call of oversold which to me includes those scary bounces 2nd talks about.
If I combine those with Colin Twiggs excellent technical analysis from today, I think we get a good picture of the market in it's present condition. I highly recommend reading Colin's latest and viewing the charts. Ugly.

Just look at the DJTA, Fedex and UPS. They have to lead us out??? NOT.

So I'll be making a list of those sub 30 RSI's that I think will recover a bit and be keeping on eye on those key support levels to get better confirmation (2nd's post again) to short on strength....or not.

For an example of RSI opportunities, anyone keep an eye on ETFC on Wednesday? Me either. Bloomberg says it made something like 12%.
Ooops!

Have a wonderful day everyone. I'll check in this evening if I can overcome turkey poisoning.

I believe that BMO has been knocked down more than the other banks because:

1) Investors are more worried that they may have more sub-prime exposure because of their large US presence through Harris Bank.

2) As part of their writedowns, they announced that would be supporting 2 SIV's (Links Finance Corp. and Parkland Finance Corp) through senior debt to a mxiumum of $1.6 billion. This may cause more writedowns in the future, but as I said before, I think that they would have done a tom of diligence on this before committing more capital.

3) They have not executed well this year and are still trying to close up their commodity trading business, so there may be more hits here.

Offsetting these risks is the fact that their market cap has been chopped by over $7.5 billion, so even if there are more hits, they have likely been discounted to some degree and the core banking business is rock solid in Canada.

Could it get dragged down further? Absolutely, especially as more bad news comes out of the financial sector and if you wanted to play it more conservatively, you could look at the other banks which have less US exposure (but whose prices are still higher).

BMO's Q4 results come out next Tuesday, so it might be worthwhile to wait and see how these end up.

Astral, Kiron, Do-Good,
Another Energy Trust is HTE (Harvest Energy)closed 21.98, off from almost 29.00 earlier in the month. Near 16% dividend. Acquired refining
operation which is scary to some. Analysts divided, but one writer made it a top pick and called it a strong buy under $30. Thanks for Stockchase.com recommendation, Astral. That's a nice resource.

Giving thanks for the mess we're in

"Thanks, Mr. Greenspan, for slashing rates and making credit so easy to get that we now have a housing sector in turmoil, foreclosures hitting levels not seen in decades and bankruptcy filings back on the rise. Nice work.

Thanks, President Bush, for overseeing the collapse of the U.S. dollar. My family didn't want to take that trip to Italy anyway. Toss in the whole war effort and near $100 per barrel oil, and it's a wonder your approval ratings are this high."

http://tinyurl.com/2tnmk5

Craig
Happy Thanksgiving!
Addicted? Me too... I snuck out of rehab [for my piggishness] to see what my "investing family" were taking about today. If you get a second or two between drumsticks...could you post the web site link of Colin Twiggs ?

Thanks buddie!

Here ya go, Isaiah:

http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

Regards

Bull Hunter

Bless you!

Remember my friend... don't eat to much today... you can't afford to be slow with the "left mouse button" if tomorrow's dance is comparabler to yesterday's closing.

Also don't forget to bring a large bag [paper or plastic] to bag all your profits! :^)

Happy Thanksgiving!