You're not slone on the gold call Bill:

From Colin Twiggs this AM:
"Gold broke through the rising (green) trendline, warning of a secondary correction. Penetration of short-term support at $775 would confirm the signal. The euro remains bullish against the dollar and we can expect gold to recover and follow this in the medium-term.
The primary up-trend is strong, and the long-term target of $900 [725+(725-550)] remains. A secondary correction is likely to find support at the 2006 high of $730/$725."

Sounds familiar.

2nd,
GOOG price target raised to $900.00 this AM...Q's are going to run.

Bill:

"...we will have to implement a management system that separates the day-trader “squawk” and tactics from the rest, and also facilitates rapid searches by company and by Community member."

Looking forward to this.

isaiah- even though i talked you out of it, your call yesterday on SSO turned out to be correct...and now you know it, which is what's important...

Good Morning.

Today's Cara 100 U/Ds:

Upgrades:
STO - to Buy at UBS
SBUX - to Outperform at Friedman Billings
XOM - to Buy at UBS
SU - to Sector Outperform at CIBC

Downgrades:
SBUX - to Sector Perform at CIBC

Hulbert's (contrarian) take on gold:

http://tinyurl.com/39274c

labeling his last (mistaken) call as an "exception to the rule," (which i'm ok with)->calling for higher prices ST...

2nd....GFI in premkt. If gold pops around $17 isn't bad.

re: cerebrus and HRB - it seems that jackson hewitt would be a beneficiary of any trouble with HRB. They had their own troubles, but it was relatively minor (a few branches, not the whole company.)

somewhere in this interview is a few paragraphs on the case for JTX.
http://snipurl.com/1txvm (they haven't blocked this one on me yet!)

tax prep is still a necessity...

Freddie's quarterly loss more than doubles
Dividend cut of 50% under consideration as capital-raising options mulled

http://tinyurl.com/yptshy

craig- also on the watchlist: UNG down 2.5% pre-market, UXG, NOT.V (to add)...may take a holiday on QID trading->have enough exposure already, and i'm not ready to cut back on any...financials and homebuilders->is there some way to track foreign investment (eg, from Dubai) into these US sectors? would guess anyone looking into increasing US equity ownership would have to be starting now...

Cerberus bails out on Northern Rock deal.

GMAC woes reportedly end Northern Rock pursuit
Cerberus said to have bailed out; Northern Rock trades below a pound.

http://tinyurl.com/2y2p52

I would be shocked if they go through with HRB's Option One at this point. I just listened to HRB's last earnings call again and for a tax prep company they sure talked a lot about sub prime and the sale of Option One to Cerberus.

HRB CEO Resigns!

http://tinyurl.com/28z9o8

NYUGrad,
Thanks for the info on HRB. I definitely have it on my watchlist and plan to buy Jan puts on it's first up day. Maybe today. :)

I also think whoever raised GOOG target to 900 is crazy. How could any stock perform like that in a market like this? Especially with how far GOOG has come already. I would love to buy some puts on Goog now but they're very expensive unless you buy so far out of the money you have almost no chance. For now I'm happy with my RIMM puts. If the market really runs today I may have to sell the APPL and C calls as well.
Good luck everyone.

Rob.

Fingerlakes. No worries. I am just trying to add value here as everyone else.

I would have had no idea that it would get this bad so fast for HRB. As i was typing my 1st discourse i learned that their CEO resigned today!

The headlines read "constructions up 3%", but the most important fact is that construction of single- family homes fell 7.3 percent to the lowest since October 1991. This is supposed to be the most stable segment of the construction market.

All this "good" news and financials are still pointing down. LOL!

Thinking there is more downside for Fannie....then maybe a small bounce after capitulation.

I'm not getting too giddy on this open.

2nd....don't know if they (Dubai and others) would be buying now. I think we still see a DOW sell signal, but it might take until the Dec. fed meeting to happen if it doesn't happen soon.

A question about mutual funds selling holdings. HRB is 60% owned by institutions. How would they strategically unload HRB?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=HRB

Example. Davis Funds owns 38M shares of it.

Does the Slosh Report seem to indicate a less funded day in the markets?

http://tinyurl.com/eosvl

FRE down 22% and FNM down 16% pre-market. That's how mutual funds dump when they panic, before the open or after the close.

Rob.

DXY: 75.28, down .50 Amazing.
If it is to strengthen it might have to be December.

my current feeling on gold is that we need a
close above $800 for 2 days before things move again.

if traders who took profits are sitting on high cash levels along with many investors who have exited financials, a strong gold move may be among the most appealing places to park one's cash at the moment other than bonds.

with so many people watching the move to $840 waiting for a pull back, the recent action once resolved with a push back through $800 may spark the move back to gold.

for the canadians i wonder how a rate cut in canada combined with a cut or hold on rates in the US will affect canadian gold miners.

2nd_ave

I did the wiser thing [and slept better] by following your advice yesterday about holding off on buying SSO.
My analysis was more of a hunch based on watching this market make wild swings back and forth. Where as, you use the technical tools available to make your calls and in the long run are proven right time and time again.

Still watching you and Craig and learning. Don't be afraid to share your thoughts because the responsibility if it doesn't pan out always falls back on my shoulders. It's my choice to listen or not.

Yesterday I listen to you and I'm glad I did.

NYUgrad I was thinking of your prior post when I posted the Cerebus news last night. Good catch on Choate. I’ll be joining you w/ some HRB puts and possible full short position if it rises. Premarket trading 19.50-19.61, no signs of mutuals here. Think it would stick out some. Sometimes stocks rise when CEO leaves as market applauds new face and anticipates improvement. If it happens here that could be an opportunity.

Keeping an eye on: Yen dipping to a 109 handle, now back at 110. Swiss franc w/ a 90 handle.

Bullhunter—thx for the updates.

Additional Cara 100 Upgrade:

NUE to Hold at Soleil

How about ETFC today? Anyone buying in at $4.15?

If anyone missed this I posted it late Sunday night... some notes from the presentation I went to where Greenspan was selling his book.

http://tinyurl.com/2klfud

Neither him nor Trump gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling inside. The Gold dealer I met did though.

2nd

Your post last night in regards to mine, was tooooooooooooooo funny!

You should think about doing "Stand Up" for your night time job!

Thanks for the words of encouragment.
----------------

"UXG...will be the cause of death listed on my
Death Certificate..."

isaiah- no, man...when gold hits 4 figures and mcewen finds his vein, it will be the first three letters on your (new) license plate ;)

Posted by: 2nd_ave

don coxe conference call, not sure if this was posted previously, excellent stuff:

http://www.beearly.com/pdfFiles/Coxe15112007.pdf

Curious to know why more talk is not happening on those Cara 100 stocks showing a buy alert? Anyone looking to initiate a long term position in any of these stocks?

FNM- picking up a little at 30.76...

Stepping aside on GFI here. Probably early.

I don't trust this rally. Financials and transports are in the tank, retailers are making that ugly sucking sound. Target got clobbered today, Office Depot...you get the idea.

This thing is a phoney. No money, no selling, no transportation, no economy. No?

I'm forcing myself to look for shorting opps and entries on ultras.

Short Squeeze is on...

Looks like the washout in the financials is complete for now...

Craig...

With the news as bad as it is in the financials and elsewhere...the market is showing some strength here...

I would hold off on that short...I think we will climb into the close..

Anyone buying ETFC at $4.30?

Anyone? :)

Slosh Report seems to indicate some additional $5b has been fed into the system.

Agriculture----long POT @ 108.70.

Playing bounce off yesterday's sell-off. Like it L/T also, but will keep a leash on it in this mkt.

Bill, if housing starts are up, that's bad news. Inventory is so high that any additional increase will only intensify the problems associated with clearing the market.

Some builders have stopped building in many markets and we now have the term "mothballing" added housing bubble lexicon.

Indeed the first sign of a recovery will be when starts reach multi-year lows.

Read, fire, aim ...

Well, having just read the Bloomberg article, I note that permits are at 1993 levels, and the increase in starts is attributed to the building of condos (single family starts are down dramatically).

That's actually good news, then, in terms of resolving the current supply imbalance.

FNM- out for now at 31.95...

number2son,

Agreed. Interesting discussion of a builder by Mish at his site here: http://tinyurl.com/3y2ohm

Mothballing wont work.

UNG 38.92

HRB picked up 10 Jan puts. Thinking about selling my AAPL and C calls into strength. But if it's strong to the close, Wednesday and Friday could be up days on piddly volume and then Monday the 26th would resume the selling.

Rob.

Sorry BG, I'm not a believer...QID @ 39.70

I'm thinking the Fed Minutes at 2:15 EDT will define the market today.

Comments on e-Trade

http://tinyurl.com/2lo5a7

Seems to have hit its cap & is dropping back. Staying out today I think.

Hi...Bill;

Should we read anything more into the terse little announcement from US Gold yesterday???

Denver, Colorado (November 19, 2007) - US GOLD CORPORATION (AMEX- TSX:
UXG) today announced that Ann Carpenter has stepped down as President, Chief
Operating Officer and Director of the Company.

Cheers.....DB

Is there an etf for Brazil?

Anyone interested in Income funds might want to do some DD on New Flyer (NFI.UN on the TSE).

Been good to me.

stktrader, iShares offers one: EWZ

They have other international ETFs as well.

Thanks #2 from the Cara search engine.

UXG/UNG- scaling into both...kinda hard to believe in a rally w/o the financials/housing->are they saying the economy's looking good 6 months down the road after banks and homeowners get bailed out?...agree with craig...

MU @ $8.46

Yikes!

DUG is getting crushed today. Any opinion here at $42.06. Trying to catch a falling knife?

Picked QID @ 39.60

AdamG..

Oil looks to want to test that 100.00 level...

I am waiting till 100-105.00..Then I will be short OIL..JMO

Picked QID @ 39.60

holding DUG and not worried about it (or QID)...

Just sold my apple calls for 20% profit in one day. I'm eyeing those GOOG puts but that may expose me too heavily to the short side. Maybe I'll pick up 200 QID instead. My crystal ball is cloudy.

Rob.

stktrader, if you go to google finance:

http://finance.google.com/

and then type brazil into the "search finance" box, a list of brazil issues pops up as you type... and it tells you if it is an ADR, ETF etc

I often use that to find an etf

BG,
I have been scaling into the short side of oil since $83 oil through CL puts in the out months of 08.

Could this just be mainly short-covering before the holiday? I agree with 2ND and Craig that this doesn't feel like a rebound rally. There's way too much selling keeping it tempered. Up/Down volume is 66/32 on the NYSE and 73/26 on the Nasdaq. Not real inspiring after all that selling. Is it time to back up the short truck or should we wait until Friday?

Rob.

TimG,
Thanks for the method.

Has Jock or Bill published a list of juniors and intermediates to track? I may have missed it. Reading everything on this board is getting to be time consuming. which is a good thing.

If anyone can coy/paste the tickers of which companies i should be tracking for the next gold move, much appreciated!

This is my first attempt to blog in this site, though I have been a long time reader/observer. I hold a position on KRY and I,m considering purchasing some call options. Anybody care to comment--thanks in advance--Gus.

stktrader...Playing oil through CL...Nice..

I went straight to the gut and short XOM via puts in the JAN 90-95 strikes...

Sold most a double in profit..and looking to add to my position, I just think oil wants to spike and print 100.00..Then Selloff...

XOM got an upgrade today and I am hoping it can push back to the 90.00 level so I CAN BACKUP THE TRUCK on the SHORT SIDE AGAIN...

Bill

"You need to be watchful of such data (perhaps you keep a monthly checklist?). Maybe we ought to set up a checklist here on the website to help you organize your daily set-ups."

What a wonderful idea! One of the most difficult issues I face is trying to keep myself organized. Especially any data more than 2 or 3 days old. It tends to fall off my radar.

QID: a little more here. 38.38

Gus...

If you already own the stock, why not SELL some call options to protect your position?

If you are already holding the stock and taking that risk already, why go long the options?

UNLESS you know that the permit is coming...

I know others here have been very successful in selling calls against a position they already hold and have lowered their cost basis in KRY way lower than where the stock is trading right now...

Thanks, basketguy. I will seriously consider it.

from Bill this am"...we will have to implement a management system that separates the day-trader “squawk” to NYUgrad "...Reading everything on this board is getting to be time consuming. which is a good thing."

Since I am not a "daytrader" per se I am not overly interested in the moment to moment gyrations of the market or those of the players. Thus, it does become "time consuming" for me to try to sort out the information that I find most interesting or important to me. I have nothing against "daytrading" but having been involved in other blogs over the years and have found that the discourse becomes heavily one-sided about what trade should we make in the next few seconds. Eventually, only day traders remain.

I learn a great deal from the members of this blog (community)so I hope Bill and the IT guys come up with a solution soon.

craig- got a good fill on QID, or just wanted to find out if we're paying attention?

I learn from the daytrader "squawk" as well as the other types of posts.

IMHO, it's all good.

Just revealing my stellar typing/concentration skills.....LOL

Ahem...$39.38. Very good my friend....

JMO, if the daytrader posts were just in a separate thread it would be perfect. I can understand golfer's points, probably a very significant number of people come here for deeper discussions. I always try to think, before I post, "am I adding any value with this post?"

Feature request re Golfer,

I would love to see a way to search through the site and or Discourse by member name. example. Search for WGW but only discourse comments by user "Bill Cara" or "Leisa" or "MarkM" and "Kaimu".

Per my note yesterday, CEO did indeed bounce off of it's 50% retracement. CEO up 10% today.

No position.

I'm happy just the way it it now. I've learned more about the precious metals market here than I ever have anywhere else. I wouldn't want to go to a sepatare page to view the gold comments, then a separate one for the day trader comments, then a separate one for the bears, and a separate one for the bulls. You see what I mean right? Everything would be very fragmented and isolated and would cut down on the diverse community aspect. All the diverse information and viewpoints are what make it so much better than other discussion groups. If it does become 1000+ posts a day it will be more difficult to read them all. Maybe have headers above each post as to what they relate to so people can scan through quickly if they're only interested in certain discussions. Just some thoughts.

Rob.

GR,
Even with Bill's comment that KRY will eventually get a permit, I would not buy calls on KRY since that permit date is unknown. Selling calls defeats your purpose of making any profit towards a buyout when the permit does come. 60, 7.50 March calls sold yesterday for .25. This is if you think the permit comes after March 08. If you are in at higher prices that will only arrive to your number based on the permit, you might as well stick to your plan which was to profit on a permit and leave it at that. Don't watch the stock interday if your position is bothering you. Check end of day results. The market makers are in shakeout mode now so lower prices are here to stay.

I have no doubt that Bernake is a well educated fellow but he just doesn't appear to be a leader or one that inspires confidence. His last testimony with him stuttering and looking un-confident was concerning. This is the problem with today's so called leaders - they are not leaders but weak individuals that fold like a lawn chair around others that want them to do their bidding. Gold has a bright future.

I agree with Finger Lakes's above post

[November 20, 2007 11:40 AM]

Hi...Bill;

Thanx for the UXG comments...

I'll sneak back and find your

previous posts...

Cheers.....DB

golfer,

As a diverse community, we have discussed this before.

I only see ONE daytrade on the comments this morning - FNM in and out. FNM is an important stock and many may want to buy at todays level and hold for intermediate to long term, so this trade held value to most here.

We are a community and we all contribute, so ya gotta love 'em all.

Actually, we don't all contribute. My pet peeve on this subject is the new poster who doesn't contribute anything, but asks a question like; "what do you think of xyz?". How about coming in with a contribution and then add a question? Ya gotta give to take.

The discourse here is led by all of us - if you are not going to contribute, you are not bringing anything positive to the blog so don't complain.

Sorry for taking so much time out of your day, what about 15 seconds to "wade" through the comments that you are not interested in.

I always feel like I'm responding to yesterday's comments!

MikeNYC/northvan - I agree that I need to figure out how to convince Google to show relevant ads. My work actually blocks Google AdSense so I can't see the ads myself unless I am at home, but I've seen those document management ads. I added the "(show more information)" link partially so I could use words like "equity", "ticker", and "stocks" but I probably need to add a meta keyword header and things like that. Unfortunately, the contents of the table aren't part of the webpage (they get pulled from the server via javascript), so I don't think the Google robots will ever see that. I'll do some research, since irrelevant ads probably aren't even worth having there.

Steven,
I certainly appreciate any direct donations for hosting. I figure that is a good link to put up there because it explicitly supports the page staying up, so it's a pretty pure way to support the site. Thanks.

Jeff

ALOHA !!

I was off for a few days at a wedding ...

ON GOLD
Some mention of the Perth Mint on prior posts. Yes, I own PMCP(Perth Mint Certificate Program)but "allocated", meaning my name is on the gold which is seperate from "unallocated". I do not own "unallocated" gold at any mint or bullion vault, whether KITCO or GOLDMONEY. Whatever coinage problems that have occured I really feel has no impact on the mint itself other than perhaps a supply issue. As Jim Sinclair has pointed out many times you must keep as few entities between you and your investments as possible. I prefer to keep "no banks" in the loop which is why I went with a "mint". I'll take an issuer of "real money"(mint)over a multi-trillion $$$ derivatives laden US Bank any day!! I also realize that it is prudent to keep some investments outside the USA and away from the US government jurisdiction. Since I was a resident of Perth, West Australia for many years I know how strong the mining industry is there and the long and reputable history of the Perth Mint. Coupled with the guarantees of the Western Australian state government(which I would trust more than the US government)and Lloyd's Insurance I believe there is a much higher measure of safety than a US Bank safe deposit box or a KITCO pool account. This is my own personal choice based on my experience of Perth, the West Australian government and the Perth Mint. By the way I will be going there in Jan 2008 and I will make a report as I hope to interview mining execs and Perth Mint officials while I am there. I will be in Perth for 18 days starting Jan 9th.

ON DESPERATE GOVERNMENTS
Do not get me wrong ... ANY GOVERNMENT in ANY COUNTRY has the power to change the rules on a dime! In desperate times desperate governments will resort to such tactics. We are now seeing that happen in the USA. There are many red flags waving on the US financial and government levels. There is no 110% safety guarantee on anything anywhere or for anyone! You come into this World with NO GUARANTEE! That is how you spend your life here on Earth and that is how you will leave when you die! You have to accept the basic rule of life that you are in the long run powerless, then if you fail you can accept that and move on and if you succeed in beating the odds then its icing on the cake! This blog Bill has created is just a tool. We all have to "execute" on our own. When I use the word "execute" I do not mean just a "trade" but "execute" life. There is a lot more to this than the markets and chances are even if you "win" in the markets you still have no guarantee you will "win" at life! The hospitals and rehabs and jails are full of former "winners" from the stock market. If that doesn't get you then the stress will! Believe me the "stress" of being an American in America is only going higher not lower!

In the meantime, I know of only one way to beat the odds and that is to go against the norm, against the flow and against the mainstream thinking ... It is unfortunate that as baby-boomers we were taught all this socialistic nonsense and have forgotten the true strengths of true liberty and freedom and independence from BIG GOVERNMENT. I luckily grew up outside the US education system and ended up without the social spending and dependant status brainwashing. Do all you can to break your dependence on the "matrix" and I believe you will survive ... The "matrix" would be defined as the Fed and State governments and the banking system. In other words all entities that use and promote debt as a way of life. All entities that own you and your independence and therefore your ability to survive. Bill has spoken of many of these entities(HB&B, FED) that dominate the US markets and government policy. None of these entities have your best interest at heart ... NOW THAT IS A 110% GUARANTEE YOU CAN TAKE TO THE MINT!

g034
In response to your "pet peeve"

"My pet peeve on this subject is the new poster who doesn't contribute anything, but asks a question like; "what do you think of xyz?". How about coming in with a contribution and then add a question? Ya gotta give to take."

I am still learning so what could I contribute that would be of any use to you more seasoned traders. All I can do for the moment is post interesting links to articles etc.

Why not do what you recommended to golfer, and and just wade through posts like mine.

If everyone contributed more, reloaded and read more often and had a scrolling mouse, all would be happy.

We need more long term investor input and they should read in smaller bites throught the day.
My scrolling mouse whips through all the previously read posts and gets me near the bottom of the page quickly.

If you only read once or twice a day, can you really complain about the volume? That's like complaining about the line at Starbucks.
There's a line for a reason.

Same here....who wants to eat in an empty restaurant?

Bull Hunter:

I also learn a great deal from the "daytrader squawk" and I do not want to lose their input. The point is about "time". It is like LAND...they aint making more of it.

Let us assume I am trying to really get a handle on the AZ and DZ concepts and RSIs as signals and MACDs as clues to entry and exit points or WHATEVER and I wait till the markets close to start reading the blog or heaven forbid till the evening. If you haven't looked at the entire day's blog...sometimes there are entries at 6a.m. the next day... you cannot appreciate Bill's comment about spending 24 hours reading it (Bill's exaggeration, not mine).

I am getting older and I didn't really start at investing/trading until I gave up my "dayjob" ...retired...TIME is really important to guys/gals like me.

I realy want to learn about entry points before I get to MY final exit point. I do have my exit strategy is in place though... I learned to do that from this blog (LOL)

Leisa -- If you're out there...any thoughts as to whether now might be a propitious time to re-enter MGPI at say 6.45 with a close stop just below yesterdays 6.28 low?

golfer,

I guess we all have different views of how the blog should be designed.

I don't scrutinize every single post, only the ones I'm interested in. With a scrolling mouse, I could easily "read" five times as many posts than are normally posted here.

If Bill wants to seperate the posts, that's fine too. I'll just open multiple windows. No big deal.

I'd rather see them all together but I'll adjust to the wishes of the Community.

Regards

I have been keeping an eye on CRDN. Their stock has been plummeting since they offered a wide range of guidance for '08 on October 31. Today the stock hit very long term support around $40.

Shortly thereafter the company announced an teleconference to discuss guidance,etc.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071120/20071120005762.html?.v=1

Stock just bounced for the first time in weeks. Should build some anticipation/stabilization over the next week.

Looks Like Target TGT has taken the wind out of this little rally.

"Ahem...$39.38. Very good my friend..."

Congrats Craig. Very good indeed.

Wavesmash - I think ETFC is headed back to the cellar. Heavy volume, but not near the panic volume of last week. My wild a** guess, but I think you see 3.75 by mid afternoon. Then look for the dead bounce tomorrow. I sure wouldn't play this one today. MHO.

Wavesmash - I think ETFC is headed back to the cellar. Heavy volume, but not near the panic volume of last week. My wild a** guess, but I think you see 3.75 by mid afternoon. Then look for the dead bounce tomorrow. I sure wouldn't play this one today. MHO.

Regarding Gold: Frank Barbera had some interesting comments on Saturday's FSO (Financial Sense Online) 1st hour. I alway listen to the first hour each Saturday morning. I love Tim Wood and F. Barbera the two technicians. Also, good other commentary as well.

.... or hold an ETFC position overnight.

One easy way for the time-challenged to scan for posts by a particular blog contributor is to search using the control-F key...

Isaiah,

You are part of the community, I don't know why you thought I was referring to you because I wasn't. Sorry for the confusion.

I was referring to a brand new poster who posts some question like; "hey Bill, what do you think of gold/kry/xyz/whatever at these levels?". The poster is looking for free advice, without even reading past posts - the ultimate free lunch. The information from the entire community is free and in some cases priceless, the least that a new poster could do is spend a little time reading the blog before looking for a quick fix - there are none. Like I said, it's just MY pet peeve.

As far as the day trader posts - the technical entry/exit points can be very similar whether you are in a 3 min, 60 min, daily or weekly chart. Even a long term holder of stocks can learn from the day trader. Who knows, you might even make some money!

Bull Hunter:

I am not suggesting we separate the posts. I like to read/scan them all because I know that the possibility of finding something I wasn't looking for exists and I do not want to miss it. I want a tool that lets me search/sort quickly. For example, suppose I am doing something today and I remember that Bull Hunter had provided some information on what I am dealing with but I cannot remember the day nor time he/she said it.

There in lies my problem.

BillySundance,

As a former shareholder of CRDN, I have more than a passing interest in this exciting company.

IMHO, their current share price is ridiculously low but I just can't pull the trigger in this market environment. My other recent tech longs are taking a beating.

Long term, you should be fine at this price but be warned, the shorts and their brokerage firm tools can dictate CRDN's price for long periods of time. I've been thru it.

Good luck to you.

g034:

That is why I do not want to separate the posts.

"make some money"...Lord knows I am trying.

For those playing or are interested in QID & DUG I found the following links on Yahoo showing the components if the indexes these Ultra shorts are actually shorting.
The prices update automatically.

You can find the component list for any index by entering the symbol in the "get Quote" box.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5ENDX

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EDJUSEN

QID- craig- nice move, my man...skepticim pays off in the market...

Awesome, Lazarus! Thank you!

QID/DXD took some off a few mins ago.

Bull,

Thanks for the input RE: CRDN.

I have also owned this company before. I bought in at around this same area (low 40s) and I sold around 60, only to watch it climb into the 80s.
I have watched it trade very strangely before, including FBR doing a downgrade and then upgrade in the same month last year (very suspicious!).

I think the risk/reward is favorable here after this drop - which has been bizarre. It almost seems as though a fund had to evacuate at any cost. As I see it, the teleconference announcement should soothe some nerves over the next week and support a little bounce - not sure yet if I will wait to here the details.

All in all, I agree this stock isn't for the faint of heart.

Some longer term ideas, from a Canadian perspective.

-Bill made a Canadian wildlife observation over the weekend, noting that we have big bears up here. The monthly chart of the TSX looks ominous as the uptrend line dating back to 2002 has just been violated. Not much support until 11402 (i.e. 2000 pts lower). See chart: http://tinyurl.com/2dwmfh

-Watching Cara 100 Teck, considering a partial position around these levels at ~39 CDN. Played this previously from 41 to 51 with good success. Previous bottoms at 37-38 should provide support. Daily and weekly RSIs < 30, monthly not quite there yet. Concerns: daily chart looks horrendous right now. Potential MACD negative divergence with MACD making lower low than it did at previous bottoms looking back to Mar 07.

-Watching Canadian Tire (CTC-A.TO), down from 87 to 72 in the past month.

-Cdn banks interesting, but will likely trade in sympathy with US fuglies. Speaking of which, XLF looks to be breaking below $29, i.e. crashing through former resistance from 04-05. Yes, the financials are back where they were in 2004. Fugly. How's that for optimism, Kudlo & Co?

-Also eyeing the Cdn rails CP & CNR, for potential partial positions, but frankly, I have a strange feeling all of this will be much cheaper in the months ahead.

-Rather perplexed by the move in $GOLD today. I suppose this is in part due to the rumours of the emergency rate cut, and partly due to being modestly oversold in the very short term. Agree with Bill's prognosis of a further decline to $725-$750. Interesting that $XAU is now near its low of the day while spot is at the high. Hmmmm, gobble gobble.

Speaking of Kudlow & Co, I happened to catch some of the show last night while waiting for the Senators / Canadians game to start. They had four incredibly bullish guests who were just gushing about the market's prospects at this juncture. One of the guests, in a whirlwind induced blur of fist pounding for the financials, actually commented that financial earnings would be up if not for these writedowns. Huh? Are you kidding me? The writedowns are a result of poor risk management, i.e. BAD BUSINESS DECISIONS. You don't hear these clowns remarking that earnings would have been flat to lower if you back out investment gains or prop desk trading when times are good. The mind boggles.

g034

Sorry my friend.... but you have to admit I am very inexperienced compare to you and the others.

I almost feel sick for selling my SKF yesterday. I missed a NICE move.

Craig

Surprise you sold the QID so early... To me it looks like things are shaping up for a big sell off near the end of the day. People seem like they are nervous and trying to recoup as much of their loses as they can. So another sell seems to be in order.
IMHO

Well so much for that rally. We're already in the negative. Will we ever have a successful rally attempt or is it mainly down from here? Maybe we have to break through primary support first and then have a rebound rally before the next leg down. It didn't go straight down in 2000 did it? Wasn't there some strong rebound rallies?

Rob.

Bill, is there any time frame for the streaming to be in place? An idea was to see if we could see the comments coming in a skype chat session, then that would be one fewer app to run.

Isaiah,
Just a portion, I'm still holding QID/DXD.

Huge reversal today off the morning highs. The morning rally did not break the downtrend on the hourly chart though. Lets see if the bulls can hold 1430.

The Russell 2000 has broken long term support around 750. I watch this index because it is harder to pump and seems to be leading.

The banking index BKX is resting on last ditch support at 90.

Doug11 - what you see is the bulls getting rabidly desperate.

Nasdaq just broke through it's 200 day moving average!!

Rob.

For anyone not using it yet, Yahoo has a new charting format with interactive readings for stochastics, RSI, MACD and MoneyFlow. I just started using the 5-day one for QID and it gives great readings (15-min. delay); particularly useful is the stochastic for a volatile issue like QID.

SPX 1425. Will it meld down?

NOT.V- added (after a long delay) @ 4.37...
isaiah- who was it that said if you don't like the market now, wait ten minutes->taking a look at FXP...

QID- taking the usual 20% off at 41.38...who knows...

HRB 1st large block trade at 1pm.

Anyone have visibility as to who it was?

http://i10.tinypic.com/89vri89.jpg

2nd
Never heard that market saying before.... but
I have heard "pretty girls are like a bus... there is another one every 5 mins.."

In either case both are true...

Doesn't FXP seem risky with our market tumbling today? In any case at what entry point were you considering?

Doug11:

"financial earnings would be up if not for these writedowns."

Now I understand. I coached many basketball teams that could have would have won if they hadn't lost?

Re GOLD:

December gold bounced nicely off its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $773 early this morning and seems to be trying to put in a bottom.

http://tinyurl.com/2wn273

Gold's first attempt to re-enter its channel seems to be in the process of being rebuffed. It would be really bullish if it succeeds and stays within it. But the broken uptrend line could offer enough resistance, in conjunction with the 23.6% Fib line just above, to send gold all the way back to Fib 50% support at $750.

That would be in keeping with Bill's mid-700s estimate and at the top end of the range predicted by RBC Capital Markets.

http://tinyurl.com/2fhrau

For the longer term, I agree with Bill that, once gold is well into the four figures, an entry point below $800 will seem a bargain in retrospect.

today is a perfect trading example for shorts: rarely can you short the U.S. equity market opening and not suffer.

after a pretty big decline yesterday, SPX rallied 19 points on the open until about 11:05am today. Only then did a decline ensue as the afternoon has taken back all of the morning upmove and more with SPX now down about 5.

after watching the stock market daily for the last 15 years or so, one hard rule is that if you want to get short, wait until after 10 am. the market very, very rarely declines outright from the open without staging at least one rally attempt into the 10-11am timeframe.

www.2globalmarkets.com

Sometimes I copy and paste into an email important information I want to remember about gold, the market, etc., for later reference & send it to myself. Bill's post today was one of those: (Posted by: Bill Cara at November 20, 2007 9:33 AM). Thanks, Bill.

QID: Me too 2nd, a little intraday dbl top on the chart....gotta go.

No worries, it comes back.

isaiah- are you not thinking about FXI? in any case, FXP below 84 may be good for a trade...

Finger Lakes:

"It didn't go straight down in 2000 did it?"

Let us hope it is not like 2000. I was in it as a rookie...they chewed me up and spit me out. I thought I was playing on a level field...I was, but I found out that some fields are levelier than others.

This is a time for patience. If I had known that then I would have much more cash available to buy when the time is right...and the right time will come.

The key thing that I have learned in the short time I have been reading this blog is the PATIENCE Bill has and the committment to his system...the market will come to you.

NT:

I have just started to use the clipboard feature with windows to put these nuggets in...saves time.

NT- I do the same thing. Reading this everyday it's hard to remember when somebody said something. Easier to find it in my inbox.

I use Ameritrade and prices for OTC stocks like Noront and Geologix don't upgrade during the day. They used to show zero's across the board until an hour after closing when they would update. Now they show the price and volume from the day before all day. I emailed AMTD and they said i need to call them and prove that there was activity in the stock before they could do anything. Waiting until lunch break to call them but wondered if anybody else had this with their platform? TIA

I shorted 100 of GS last week @ 232. Somewhat anxious about it but it's worked out well so far.

2nd
FXP... I have been watching for days now... sorry I missed the train @ 72 when you first gave out the call. Also today it dipped to 79.xx and I froze..&^%$! ...

Those with a long-term perspective and an interest in maximizing dividend income may want to take a look at AOD (Alpine Total Dynamic CEF), which is now yielding 12.5% on a diversified international portfolio. AOD is now trading @ 17.03, well below net asset value and down 15% from a recent high of 20.03 on Oct 29th. Pays $0.18 dividend per month at present. Daily RSI=21.52; weekly=28.71. AOD has only traded below this level once since fund inception; that was last August 16th, when it hit a low of 16.55 before closing at 17.82.

Link to 11/14 conference call transcript:
http://alpinecef.com/pdfs/111407_Transcript.pdf

Disclosure: Long AOD.

Golfer,
I was a rookie back then too so I remember it but not with a trader's eyes. Now, I'm more experienced but still not sure enough to bet the farm on the bottom falling out without at least a strong rally attempt that lasts more than one day. That would give time for the shorts to clear out and then nothing would be holding the market up, because shorts do provide a floor until they all cover.

Rob.

thought about stepping into CFC but the heavy volume today is scaring me off. 2nd you played CFC before right?

QID: caught reversal at 40.90

For what it's worth...

I use TDWATERHOUSE and CANACCORD ADAMS for research etc. Today, TDWATERHOUSE had 17 NEW ISSUES (now 16 as one was just withdrawn)that they are trying to find subscribers for....ALL remaining 16 are still open....I have never seen this before...usually some on the list have closed. I refer to this LIST as an indicator of investor confidence...i.e. the faster one closes the better I think the prospects are for that company down the road...but again I have never seen them all still open. (Credit Crunch)

Canaccord has a list of NOTABLE Highs and Lows...after yesterday's close there are 16 new highs vs 132 new lows.

May be time for a walk in the snow.

Wavesmash - Are you watching ETFC, or did you buy earlier. I'm waiting for 3.70

golfer I have noticed a large volume of canceled offerings in the past week on my system.

Want to add that the support line from the March low through Aug 07 low is being defended today. Let's see if it closes below 1420'ish on the SP.

geckojb- CFC- it's been awhile since i've played it->august or september...honestly believe one or more major banks will fail before it's all over, so for LT plays would stick to an ETF...why not consider FNM for a play?

"The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that it expects slower economic growth and a slight bump up in unemployment next year due to the housing slump and a credit crunch. The board also said, however, that it thinks inflation will remain moderate".

Ok, so by saying inflation will remain moderate their really saying "We're gonna cut".

Got to love this QID

Have a base holdings...... it rises I sell 20% it falls I pick up another 20% ....it rises I sell the same 20%...etc...like a dance ..1.2.1.2

QID been very very good to me :-)

FNM: Maybe as a short. Jim Rogers was on Bloomberg earlier, he thinks it see's $10 and under.

Won't the government step in to protect FNM and FRE?

Rob.

QID: Testing 41.60 a third time....

QID- another 20% off at 41.75...

Re HECLA:

Something's going on with HL. It held up relatively well during the recent weakness in the precious metals and is up more than 6% today, nearly double the average of the majors Bill mentioned at 1:57 pm.
Meanwhile the other big silvers aren't doing much, if anything. Takeover, anyone?

p.s. after today, the market will shift to holiday-type trading until probably Tuesday morning. that means low volume and unless something catastrophic happens, odds suggest muted ranges for the equity indices.

next week will be the last few days going into month-end which is normally neutral to bullish short-term, so additional downside in the market will probably be off the table until 12/4 to 12/5.

If the market does continue to its downward trend despite these two short-term bullish forces, then December/early 2008 will most likely shape up to be a fantastic long-term buying opportunity for stocks.

http://www.2globalmarkets.com

QID- another 10% at 42...leaving 1/2 on the table regardless...

p.s. after today, the market will shift to holiday-type trading until probably Tuesday morning. that means low volume and unless something catastrophic happens, odds suggest muted ranges for the equity indices.

next week will be the last few days going into month-end which is normally neutral to bullish short-term, so additional downside in the market will probably be off the table until 12/4 to 12/5.

If the market does continue its downward trend despite these two short-term bullish forces, then December/early 2008 will most likely shape up to be a fantastic long-term buying opportunity for stocks.

http://www.2globalmarkets.com

DOW 12846 dead ahead.....THE DOW sell signal.
Trannies are already below....

LONGS BE CAREFUL.

Looks as though today's morning pop was another opportunity for HBB to distribute their holdings...

2nd

I'm riding this gravy train [QID] until the last half hour.

Will look your way and Craig's to see if you two plan to carry any over for tomorrow.

Yes...I sold some QID 42.07 Could not pass that up before t giving...

UXG- opening a position at 3.95...

GMO in the news.

http://tinyurl.com/2pddb5

Disclosure: Long GMO

QID: 20% off @ 42.20

Thanks for the clue 2nd...

bg- good move->no guarantees, of course, but partial sales into that kind of action almost always pays off...

the short side has been good->to be honest, was planning to sit out the correction in cash until bill pointed out that i may not be happy with just a few percentage points on the downside...it's been a 6% move in the port just since halloween...

Maybe I'm missing something here,but I read the fed statement as good for stocks, especially commodities .

It looks to me that with their concerns about the economy and the financial markets, in addition to their forecast of lower inflation and and lower growth, that more rate cuts are almost a certainty.

The rate cuts will help stimulate growth, lower the dollar and drive up gold, oil, etc.

Let me know if I'm missing something here.

QID- taking 10% back at 41.55...

ALOHA !!

This hits the nail on the head ...

FROM MISES INSTITUTE:
Protectionist Rhetoric
By David Veksler

"A large part of the US trade deficit comes from the bonds (treasury securities) the US government has been selling to foreigners to finance the growing federal budget deficit. The value of these bonds depends on both the strength of the US economy and the loss of value caused by expansion of the money supply. When the US Treasury sells bonds to individuals, it diverts savings from private investments; this diversion is a form of taxation. When it sells bonds to the Federal Reserve, it exchanges bonds for newly created dollars, which is a form of monetary expansion (inflation). Additionally, when the government sells debt to foreigners, it creates a liability against the US economy. Foreigners buying deficit debt are in essence betting on the ability of the government to provide a return on the investment in the form of positive economic growth. What happens when the investment fails to turn a profit?

The primary reason for the $9 trillion federal deficit is the so-called "War on Terror," including the spending on Homeland Security, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Unless you believe these funds averted an economic meltdown due to terrorism, these funds represent a near-total loss. Tanks, bombs, and bureaucratic paper pushers consume vast funds, yet they contribute nothing to the economy, aside from benefiting military contractors. This economic destruction is one of the biggest reasons for the declining dollar. (Perhaps the major reason is the credit bubble created by the inflationary policy of the Fed since the early 2000s, which is now collapsing and making the economy less attractive as an investment target.)

The falling dollar will make it increasingly expensive for the US government to accumulate more debt. Eventually, it will be forced to either cut spending, explicitly shift costs to US citizens by increasing taxes directly, or (most likely) increase taxes through higher inflation. Investors have already anticipated this and flocked to other currencies and to gold as a refuge. The slide will likely continue until some kind of budget reconciliation is evident."END

Full article link: www.mises.org

I am always amazed and I have posted here many times that the "War On Terror" like the "War On Drugs" are nothing but wars on "nouns" and "ideas". These are wars not worth fighting because they are perpetual wars that can never end and are highly inflationary. THESE ARE WARS WE AS A NATION CANNOT AFFORD!!! It is that simple ... leave all the patriotism and Islam out of the equation ...PLEASE !!! These wars have yet to be factored into Wall Street or anybody's bottom line except defense contractors! Not even the POG and POS have truly accounted for these wars. Wait until they do ...

The phrase "budget reconciliation" ... This will only happen when the US military is in retreat due to a US Dollar collapse. The egos that dwell in Washington DC are too big to be trusted ... It has nothing to do with who you vote for anymore ... its beyond that ... the future course is set. Its now time to brake this runaway train and there is only one guy who has his hands on the brakes ... that guy is RON PAUL!

bb, I think that people are realizing that there is a point at which Fed rate cuts won't help equities, and I beleive that people are feeling we're at or near that point. The past 3 rate cuts haven't helped equities - the market is lower now that when those began. Further rate cuts will likely push gold up, but not likely to provide instant support to equities, in my opinion.

2nd_ave..

Gotta thank you Craig and others here...In the past I usually would hold too long..

In this action..I have learned Better to take 13% profit in less that a week off the table and reload...Done that twice now in last month...

Feels good and I am more comfortable with my short exposure..

Sentiment is SOOO Negative right now my contrarian alter ego says GO LONG, and with most of the big players on vacation after today...

I have a feeling that the low volume and oversold conditions we will bounce or grind higher...We shall see...

Craig GREAT CALL TODAY...My hat is off to you..I was looking for strength..Can't be right everyday, just glad I held my QID till it broke 42.00

2nd_ave..

Gotta thank you Craig and others here...In the past I usually would hold too long..

In this action..I have learned Better to take 13% profit in less that a week off the table and reload...Done that twice now in last month...

Feels good and I am more comfortable with my short exposure..

Sentiment is SOOO Negative right now my contrarian alter ego says GO LONG, and with most of the big players on vacation after today...

I have a feeling that the low volume and oversold conditions we will bounce or grind higher...We shall see...

Craig GREAT CALL TODAY...My hat is off to you..I was looking for strength..Can't be right everyday, just glad I held my QID till it broke 42.00

Poor me. I'm getting slapped silly by all of my junior PMs. Only Hugo Chavez can save me now.

QID holding steady.... looking for that BIG rise during the final hour.

WFC- thinking hard about opening a position- wife pretty sure Wells has little to no exposure to sub-prime (well-managed and low tolerance for BS in general)...

2nd

Did you jump into FXP today?

Be careful Isaiah,
The bull will panic if we get close to a 12846 close.....there may be some strength here so watch the chart carefully...RSI is turning south now...

2nd

ok.... what would you recommend a RSI to start selling off at

2nd + Craig

Also you guys carrying any QID into tomorrow?

2nd,
W. Buffett,the poor man's Bill Cara, likes WFC plenty in Berkshire.

2nd,
W. Buffett,the poor man's Bill Cara, likes WFC plenty in Berkshire.

Our friend WB has done OK for himself (& his shareholders) since the end of August!

wavesmash - ETFC 3.70 hit. I'm an owner.

closing my 2X short on emerging markets (EEV) from last friday at eod today. I'm seeing too many positive RSI divergences on the other indices today. However if EEM falls through 145ish, I'll short it double again - there's a lot of air under that mark.

I can't take it...

Added MU @ 8.33 to my retirement port...I like it at this level and can hold...

Oil up over $98 now, gold back over $800.

Suncor and Can Nat Res both up over 3% (these are my long-life oil plays). Goldcorp and Barrick both up over 5%.

I see this report from the fed as an indication that they are worried about the economy and will lower rates to help this, which will drive up commodity prices.

Your right DaveB that rate eases probably won't generally help equiities, but I think that there is nowhere for commodities to go but up.

Franklin - great post. Fibs have worked great for me in gold.

Isaiah - do a search for MarkM's first posts, you will find that he called himself a "newbie" (I think I called him that first ;-) ). His dramatic improvement has been a wonderful testament to his learning abilities, his "sticktoitiveness" AND the knowledge gained off of this blog and other reputable sources. If a Cardinal fan can do it, so can you! (Hi Mark, hope all is good with you). Please keep posting links to your readings. It all helps.

golfer - IH83ptz

I probably have no idea what I am talking about, but with the RSI levels getting so low after today's selloff and the holiday approaching does anyone think there might be a pop in the indexes? so maybe QLD might be a good play?

2nd_ave,

Look into it first. As I understand it, they hold most of their mortgages instead of selling them off, so it depends on what they are holding. I will say that my experience with them was selling a house to someone (as a rental property) using WFC as their lender, and he seemed to think that they were going to let me sell the house for way more and give him cash back. I got the impression he was hearing that from his lender. I told him it smelled too much like mortgage fraud to me, and limited the seller concessions to the amount that the GSEs consider reasonable.

It's only one data point, but if his lender was suggesting this, I would rather avoid their loan portfolio unless I had better information about the quality of those loans.

Here comes that rally attempt...

jaketh- thanks for the reminder..
isaiah- QID- holding a 60% position into the close...FXP- no...can't catch every wave->anyone who claims they predicted today's action is pulling the strings (or pulling yours)...and after last night's reversal in asia and today's reversal(s), who's making any calls...never have enough when it's going your way, right?

Moabmatt - ETFC at 3.75 by afternoon. Talk about getting it right to the penny. Can I borrow your crystal ball?

bwl - yes I'm anticipating a pop in the major indicies based on the psotive RSI divergences on the S&P 500, DJ30, S&P100, and Nasdaq. Plus tomorrow is Weds (the most positive weekday for many years) - for what it's worth...

HOOSIER: Good post re: Mish's article on the real estate market. A prime example of what results from excess credit creation...... speculative bubbles and misallocation of capital.
He mentions Lennar's plan to mothball development as being in denial.LOL

Unless wages would somehow inflate, home prices could continue to tumble longer than anyone suspects. The larger the bubble the larger the contraction. Say it's 2012 and houses have returned to their previous peak prices, what will the real dollar adusted value? The same can be said for the retracement of the Dow over the last 6 years.

WOW!
dow up 100 points in 6 minutes

2nd

Wooooooooooow what a train ride.... dump everything.... yea... I was piggish couldn't pull the trigger at the top but dumped going down still had a hell of a day...

This shorting stuff is a rush...

:-)

So 2nd what do we short tomorrow? LOL

bg- QID- you could buy back part of your earlier sales and lock in a $1 decrease in your basis...just sayin' ;)

Kaimu:

KAIMU: How expensive is it to own allocated gold in the Perth Mint? Can you deal with them direct or do you deal through one of their agents? Also... is owning unallocated gold the same as the buying the Mint's gold certificates ..isn't there a provision with the certificates that the account will be liquidated in 2013 and proceeds distributed to holders?

I visited Perth some years ago and drove inland down to Albany then took the coastal road back to Perth with a side trip to wine country. What a beautiful area...inland from the coast looks like the plains of Africa.There are mountains which are some of the oldest on earth. There's a park down there that has remnants and life from Gondwana times. Huge trees similar to California redwoods. One of the finest areas in the world to live. For those who haven't been there...imagine California with only a couple of million people...most of those in Perth. In the country folks catch and drink rainwater as it originates in Antartica and is about as clean as it gets on earth. Miles of wild coast... sweet clean air. It's just so far away... I believe it took me 37 hours to get down under. Kaimu..you're lucky it's only about 18/20 from Hawaii.

Did a rocket just take the indexes with it, or can we deduce that the automated programs kicked in to make sure that support wasn't breached at close? I think we were close on the SPX.

OldGoat-

There are several CEFs with similar profile to AOD (international equities) although they all use slightly different approach to enhance divident return. I have some AOD, IGD, BWC as part of my core non-trading income portfolio.

The thing with CEFs is that even with good management and conservative holdings they can be extremely volatile - it is not uncommon for premium/discount % to shoot up in negative two digit range even though NAV is relatively stable.

What I found interesting is that sharp drops in these CEFs seem to correlate with massive margin calls in the market - once you get a big down spike on one or more of these CEFs you can see a lot of good stuff thrown into the market for firesale prices and usually it is a good time to do some shopping ;).

2nd,

I suggest you do a google search of the Calculated Risk blog site on WFC. A few things turn up that might change your mind if it is the case that they hold most of their loans.

AlanM - don't know what to tell ya. I also said I would own on a day like today, but I set a stinky limit order 3.70 which was filled. the escalator seems to be running back upstairs.

Front-running is right Bill. Been seeing it for years in moves like these, and I anticipate that it won't stop - heck the guys we're trading against get to watch our order flow!!!!!!!!

2nd---

Who you kidding..1.50 and counting..:)

FXP- here's your chance, isaiah->80.76? but hesitating, right? ;)

2nd

@!$&*^$&)

I missed it... bleep bleep bleep..it's over 82 now

bg- congrats...i love the smell of volatility (panic) in the afternoon...QID 10% at 40.60...

I didn't get a good look at him officer, but he got away with all of my QID!!!

Breenen, Chairman of HRB board on CNBC now with maria b.

after Breenen said we are leaving the subprime business, Maria asks, "Is this through Cerberus?" His face was stern in saying again, "we are leaving the subprime business." But said Cerberus is an option and he wont guess the outcome until its over.

Estimates for new ceo is 6 months.

If (when) cerberus declines to buy Option One, HRB will have no choice but to write down a lot of the funny money.

spot gold just spiked up to $802 out of nowhere.

JAKETH,,

He is called a specialist...or crook, scumbag etc...

Notice that the S&P is leading the Nasdaq up this afternoon. I think we may be seeing a change in market leadership that this correction enabled away from tech and into energy.

Jaketh

LOL......that was funny!

2nd

You're good....... you move faster than the market itself... you got

QID
FXP

at bottom basement prices.....

2nd_ave -

Re. WFC

I started a scale-in buy plan for half a LT (5+ years) position with a tiny toehold (1 out of 4-5 buys at fixed levels on the way down). Do not expect anything flashy out of them. Pretty conservative outfit/management. Big challenge is CA/West Coast home turf with doomsday recession on the horizon. Should be one of the survivors. Would be surprised if they expand through acquisition @ bargain basement price later in 2008/2009 (credit cards with COF, online broker with Schwab (?)).

Speaking of CA hell, Mozilo is standing on the lip of the abyss going into Thanksgiving. With all this continuous pounding of actual and threatened credit dislocations, I can't see the Treasury/Federal Reserve sitting on the sidelines for too much longer. The FNM/FRE debacle announces a new chapter where the chatter becomes not if but when the bail-out is to take place. But for the feds and pols to get involved, some lamb (or is it a pig in our present-day fable?) need be slaughtered. So back to CFC and its silvery knight, should he concede with whatever honors the Wall Street hagiographer can salvage (built a mortgage empire and helped millions get into a home) and consent to a fire sale to BAC? Or should he fight the (undoubtedly) repeated assaults on CFC survival (and gamble whatever residual value the enterprise still has) from threats of cascading downgrades and shrinking financing?

JML

g034

Can you explain what you are referring to?

"golfer - IH83ptz"

maybe i hate 3 puts???

So do I...but unfortunately as one gets older you find some satisfaction that they are not 4 putts.

g034 and bwl

I am having a hard enough time trying to fiqure out what you guys/gals are up to...now you want me try deciphering messages....pleaaaaaaaaaase

What a hoot the SP gets within pennies of the August low then boom an explosion rockets the markets higher.

isaiah- if it makes you feel any better, i didn't pick up any FXP- just wanted to point out to you that a) it hit my price, and b) i hesitated...no regrets, though...really have no idea what will happen in shanghai tonight...

Go WFMI. Thanks Bill... bought when it was in the AZ a couple of months ago, sold half at a great profit, and now have a core holding. As they expand overseas, the number should continue to do great.

My guess is we see a rally now with a positive enough close into turkey day so everyone goes home fat and happy. May be positive until Fed day or we get bad retail numbers from Thurs/Friday and we sell this Friday or Monday or on Fed day on no cut.

No fed cut really fits all the scenarios.
Strong USD short term, weak gold, DOW sell sig. weak indices (including S&P on weak oil). Ugly.

All scenarios except HB&B's 'rescue the plunderers' plan. It remains to be seen who gets rescued, HB&B or the USD.

Hoosier:

Good job.

Can you please give me the dates that WFMI was in tha AZ and the dates you bought it so I look at the graphs and the data to see if I am starting to get this technique.

I think we see a rally to the 50 day moving average in the major indices then another correction that will be lower than today's. Maybe that is when we see the mid 700's for gold. This will fuel the fire for one last explosive rally into the New Year. HBB needs one more huge sucker rally before the BEAR. I am trying to get a grip over what I need to invest in for the downturn in the New Year. I need to have a portfolio with income and growth. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Hi,

I was also expecting a rally up to the 50 day MA, but today´s trading shows that likely we will not even get to that.

Let's see...

What is the joy in banging your head off walls from 39.50 to 41.50 on QID all day for 4-5 days. There is a market out there, stocks to trade. Long or short. Most importantly, it serves no purpose on this site to most. The demise of any forum, discourse is this type of activity. Doesn't need any fancy tech guys to figure out in months on how to divide, just some rules.

Darkcorners:

I posted New Flyer (NFI.UN) on the TSE this am for some DD.

If you are in the USA check taxes etc.

golfer,

Daily, Weekly, and Monthly RSI 7 were in the AZ Mid-May 2007. RSI 7 popped over 30 either 24 May or 25 May because I started accumulating on the 25th. I got most of my holdings a little above $40 a share according to my transaction history. After I bought my allocation, WFMI RE-ENTERED the AZ after the government decided to fight this dreadful monopoly that WFMI has become. I opted not to load up on a lower basis when RSI 7 reemerged from the sub 30's as I had my full allocation that I was going to allow. In the beginning of October, I sold half my shares when the stock price was over 50, for around a %25 gain... all the while collecting the dividend. Now, with the rest of my shares, I have a core holding that I will add to if the price is right, but I plan on keeping the core holding for a long time, as I like the companies prospects.

golfer,

This chart of WMFI might be of help.
http://tinyurl.com/ypzc94

Who developed the RSI Gidget on Google?

Hoosier,

Thanks...I will let you know how I make out.

Do the 3 RSIs have to be below 30 before the stock is considered to be in the AZ?

DJIMSTOCKS,

Not trying to dis your opinion... But I must say if it weren't for 2nd, Craig, and Isaiah, I would be clueless about ETF's like QID and SKF. As Bill reminds us, it's all a dance. They're dancing to the type of music playing now.

Speaking of folks like 2nd and Craig, it literally brings tears to my eyes to witness those guys letting Isaiah dance with them. Isaiah is getting in on a very unique situation, and I have no doubt that he to shall be a dance instructor in the future.

golfer,

I believe it depends on your timeframe. My interpretation is that as a stock trends down and monthly RSI approaches 30, the price will ocilate and weekly and daily RSI's will bounce up and down.

So ultimately it depends on your timeframe. If you plan on holding a long time, wait for monthly/weekly/daily RSI to go under 30 and the daily to bounce back. But even in a downward trending stock and a shorter timeframe, you could game the weekly and/or daily RSI fluctuations for profitable trades.

Mind you, always more dangerous betting on relief rallys in a downtrend...

Nouriel Roubini interview on Housing today on CNBC today at 12:30pm.
http://tinyurl.com/2cv5ul

Thanks proudpapa.

An observation,

SPY (SP-500 ETF) volume today 425M on an uptick.

All the dips so far with large SPY volume on an uptick were bottoms. Most characteristic is the August low, with volume being 546M.

This holds true for earlier 2007 dates too, albeit not so characteristically.

I am not claiming it is predictive, it can be the first time it works the other way, but maybe 'they' marked a bottom today. SP-500 Weekly RSI-7 close to 30, daily RSI-7 tracing a bullish divergence -possibly manufactured- this could be it.

On the trading idea front, I like FRX (Forest Pharmaceuticals) here. Not a Cara100, but good company that's been under accumulation for 3 months, currently squarely in the Cara AZ. Overly punished for drug-pipeline stagnation they could be receiving approval for one or two new drugs within 2007 (Nebivolol, already approved in 50 countries outside the US). Personally long FRX May 08 calls, but do your own DD. These last days were not too kind to bulls.

Case:

So if I was going to buy FRX I wait for the 7day RSI to get above 30 which is the buy alert correct?

So, you do not buy in the AZ?

moabmatt,

Didn't get ETFC at my target price of $4.20 ($0.05 less than my last bid). I cancelled after I saw it consolidating around $4.25 around 10am, then spike up to $4.47, then drop back down very quickly. Somebody slapped it pretty good. Just had a gut feeling something was up and this wasn't the same as last time.

What are your reasons for buying this in? Science or art?

I think you are correct in picking some up as tomorrow it should start to fill in the gaps, though turkey day in the US may mean less buyers and more people just wanting to enjoy dinner & football.

Are there any requirements for the big funds, bond funding, ratings, or NASDAQ to keep the stock above $5? If so this could be a downward spiral unless they get some M&A action.

With 1.9 million Google results for E*Trade sucks and 107 million for E*Trade great, my totally unscientific study says there is still some hope for the company.

moabmatt:

Well said. And hats off to Isaiah as well.

There are probably many here that, like myself, are learning to dance. The scaling in and out of QID, for example, may be analogous to the jitterbug. Using some of those same trading and risk management techniques to build up a swing trade position or a longer time frame investment portfolio may be akin to the tango or waltz.

Gotta learn the steps and try to keep from stumbling over your own feet. Craig, 2nd and many others help more than they know.

The market plays many kinds of music; sometimes melodious yet often discordant.

You decide whether to grab a partner or grab a glass of punch.

Hoosier and proudpapa:

Thanks for the input. I have looked at the charts etc and have a much clearer idea of how this strategy is applied.

I will now use it to backtest my trading record to determine its effectiveness

Case -

You are probably on to something. I have been looking for some such patterns for various ETFs/stocks for the past few days. We have also reached what seems to be the typical duration for 2007 corrections: 3-4 weeks of aggressive down moves interrupted by at most a couple of squeezes (one and two thirds the way through).

With so much emphasis in the general press on the Dow Industrials, can we expect a Dow Sell signal to be triggered at the end of a violent, mostly unidirectional movement down and without any explicit intervention from Treasury/Federal Reserve? A tantalizing prospect, but maybe too obvious for markets to transition to a Bear phase in sync on the same day. So far, transports, financials & most retailers are there, small/mid caps are a foot and half in the grave too. Why not a lazy, uncertain rally into Christmas led by a bear market squeeze in the large financials & retailers on the back of a Fed bail-out and a sloppy, discount-rich Christmas (not good for profits, but inventory slimmer and preventing the empty store snowball effect)? Nothing drastic, just the hope that we may go back to a nominal top only to fail on New Year's eve. Which would be a non-confirmation under the Dow theory, I believe (new DJI high not confirmed by DJT) and a bad omen, albeit less dramatic than a Sell signal.

JML

Bill, I know you are putting a team together to update and add content to the site. I have a few thoughts and ideas you might want to consider. First being a big gaming nerd, I've used a free phone type system to communicate with others while gaming. Being more a night time person, I would speak to guys from Australia for hours at no cost to anyone. There were times when we would have fifty plus people talking in one chat room,'Teamspeak2' allowed us to break off into different rooms for smaller group discussions or set a key stroke to speak to a smaller group within the larger group discussion. I haven't seen it used on any finance blogs but thought it could be a great tool. Think about the knowledge and education people could get from listening in to day traders talking in real time to each other, or listening to reviews of meetings and conferences members have attended, question and answer periods could be set up to discuss any number of subjects. I'm sure there are other programs available besides 'teamspeak2', but that is the only one I know of and am very happy with it.It is also a great tool to use if you have family spread out across the country. Overall I am very happy with the current layout of this site, and look forward to any improvements that you may bring to it.

golfer and others -

Please read the links at the top of this blog. Bill spent the time to write them because they add value.

Technical buy/sell signals are discussed in technical link, I believe.

Read them all, understand them all and you will have just improved your trading abilities many fold.

wavesmash - I bought ETFC because it came to me. I figured that if it stinks bad enough to hit 3.75, It will stink worse, and it did.

I'm looking for a 15-20% bump from my entry point tomorrow, and i'll be out. I will not be long ETFC for long. (sorry, couldn't resist).

golfer,

I guess everyone here has their own detailed rules, but yes, this is the general idea of Bill's concept. The reason is to protect you from a protracted drop until there is *some* notice the downtrend is reversing or at least halting.

Using triple RSIs -daily, weekly, monthly- increases your chances that you are buying value (assuming the company's fundamentals are ok of course). Now, to make an example out of FRX, if you bring a chart up you will see that the monthly RSI went below 30 at the August 10 bottom. A daily buy alert was given on the reversal of that same date. The stock moved mostly laterally in a range, providing some good range-trading opportunities, and gave two Weekly buy alerts on the weeks of Sept 7 and Oct 5, and a monthly buy alert by the end of October. These on a closing basis (i.e. without checking for intra-bar on-off of the alerts, using the bar's high or low value when calculating the RSI).

Note the above are a rule of thumb. It's not 100% accurate, but, as Bill says, large money can't move in or out of stocks without triggering these RSI signals. As with exiting positions using the same system, it's wise to wait for the RSI signal to fire and repeat (or at least 'prime' for repeating by dipping again in the AZ) before committing. In stocks that have remained roughly in a trading range with these events firing, your chances increase, as you may try to buy close to the bottom of the range (say below 36 or around 35+ in our FRX example) and protect your position with a stop somewhere lower (say 34).

A look at other indicators (daily MACD and MACD-Histogram, I use 25/12/8 and 255/55/40) offer supporting evidence if they tick up or show divergences.

The other option (pun intended), of course, is to write some puts, inviting the stock to be put to you at a lower cost basis, most likely below the range. The risk is that you may lose the upswing - if it comes- in this case. The benefit is you can afford to be more inaccurate with your timing.

Back to FRX, note how these last days it dipped again in the AZ, dropping all RSIs below 30, and today even the hourly RSI below 20. After a protracted accumulation period, this is typical of a 'shakeout' - a move to scare out holders and trigger their stops before taking the stock higher. Somebody today was likely going for the extreme range low of 35.01, but they missed it by 10 cents or so. But I have to observe there was no active buying these last days, as there was in the first two and a half months of the range.

So, to answer your question, I would either buy it at the intraday dip close to 35, or at any sign of hesitation after it triggers a daily buy alert again, or I would write some puts at 35 here and now.

But I would proceed with caution in any case as the market has been too negative lately and these are not 'normal' times for stocks to be marked up on individual merit. To come back to FRX, I'd give it a fair shot to reach the 200-day EMA close to 43 on good news (FDA approval), but beyond that I can't know. Although, given that they mostly make antidepressants and anti-hypertension drugs, they would probably flourish in the forthcoming crisis :-)

I think green arrow has a great idea.....

Jumble,

Re 'uncertain bear rally'. The contrarian in me just two weeks ago hypothesized that Retail will be the next rally attempt, given that traditionally it rallies in November, with Black Friday and such. There was actually positive large intraday money flow to certain names (JCP) during the period, even with the stock price falling, which abruptly reversed a few (4, to be accurate) days ago. Whether the accumulation was short covering or not, I can't know. And the news turned gloom and doom on a dime. Too hard too fast a turn towards honesty for my taste.

Problem is I'm in Europe and can't know how bad things really are over the pond regarding Retail. Looks they are, or they will soon be. But you are right that most *are* oversold and in a Primary Bear sector-wise. So your squeeze scenario is likely if Black Friday ends up not being Red Friday. Or that's what HB&B would hope.

Do you think they would go as far as rigging Friday's sales? :-)

DJIMSTOCKS-

"What is the joy in banging your head off walls from 39.50 to 41.50 on QID all day for 4-5 days."

play football? not everyone sees the joy in banging heads every sunday between two 20-yard lines-i don't...or golf? we all know the joke about hitting a ball and walking after it, right? actually, i play neither, but spent hours a day in high school banging the same old chord changes and scales on the keyboard for many years->my point? some people enjoy the challenge of trading the capital markets day in and day out, and tweaking your way through it with others can be both enjoyable and a shared learning experience...all the banging develops at some point into (highly individualized versions of) the art of trading...you can practice coltrane all day but you don't want to sound like coltrane, right->you start out blowing someone else's lines and eventually end up being yourself...

"There is a market out there, stocks to trade. Long or short." No argument there.

"Most importantly, it serves no purpose on this site to most." Scroll button.

"The demise of any forum, discourse is this type of activity." Come on, man...this is a not your typical blog...plenty of intelligent, vibrant, spontaneous and unedited discourse in real-time...also plenty of well-written treatises after hours...the real world is composed of real people with different personalities, styles and beliefs...let's not let intolerance get in the way of enjoying all of it...think of the blog as a cafe where the environment changes during market hours and you need to wade through a lot of "noise," and quiets down after-hours for more "serious" conversation...does a little carousing during happy hour mean the "demise" of the cafe? hardly...

"Doesn't need any fancy tech guys to figure out in months on how to divide, just some rules." a) you do learn rules here...b) also have "fancy tech guys" on the board...c) some of us need months to figure it out...d) nothing like real-time market discourse to help you learn how to "play" by the rules...e) get newbies coming on board every day...

my mood changes during the day and during the week...if i'm not in the mood for "squawk" or a long dissertation, i scroll past it...no offense intended and none taken...hope this helps...;)

Sell-side Recommendations Explained
------------------------------------

Or, why upgrading Sell to Hold makes complete sense (even when you have Sold and thus can't possibly Hold).

HOLD->SELL: We've distributed and then shorted the crap out of it. Please help with mark-down.

SELL->HOLD: Looks nice here, please hold until we cover and accumulate.

HOLD->BUY: Covered and loaded, please help us mark it up.

BUY->HOLD That'll do, thank you, please hold until we distribute.

Took me a while, but at last I got that "upgrading SELL to HOLD" figured out :-)

Sorry in advance for the long post!

LOL, based on RobBoss' dancing note above, I think I should rename myself as "box-step"!!!

g034:
As both a StL Cards fan AND a trading newbie....I very strongly RESEMBLE your remark! I can only hope I can learn and stick to it the way I am hoping to.

Craig:
Picked up Tharp's "Trade Your Way..." at your suggestion. I can unreservedly say, "THANK YOU"!

I am only 1/4 into the book, and have completely revamped my approach to getting into things (you may [or not, lol] remember my excited "skin in the game" message of a week or so ago).

So, my approach is changed....my money & shares are in the active account, but I have committed to waiting & learning and practicing until Jan 08 before actually make a real move. Partially this is for tax reasons - I don't want to cloud my income with any "noise" from trading. Second, however, is from reading Tharp's book. I've realized I really need to develop a comprehensive strategy before I throw money into this effort.

I have made some progress with my trading profile (full time job, with 2-3 hours a day to spend on trading, but usually [key word that, I know] able to watch postitions during the day and act if neccessary). So, basically my time horizon needs to be at minimum 2/3 days. My long term income objective is in place, as well as my near term steps I think I need to get there. I have this described to myself to the level of needed net daily profits (portfolio increases) to mark my progress. I have also come up with a few ideas/beliefs I think I can trade on, as well as some basic markets I to which I feel some affinity.

Probably the biggest thing I have already gotten out of it is to remove a lot of the tactical excitement of trading. Now the excitment is more about developing a strategy. To put it in black jack terms, I am no longer excited about getting 21(finding the right stock)...rather I am excited about properly executing against well defined parameters with discipline, and betting the right amounts at the right times.

Think or Swim (online broker & data provider) has a tool for practice trades, so I have modelled my practice portfolio to look exactly like what my starting protfolio will look like. I am also able to wipe everything clean to retest, retest, retest.

In reading that book, I have not yet gotten into the sections on exits and position sizing. However, from reading here and on K Denninger's Market Ticker boards about keeping tight stops and trailing stops (to allow profits to run), my practice portfolio has only sufferred small losses (-2%) on wrongly traded ideas and wrongly idea'd trades.

Anyway, thanks again, and I will likely be coming back for everyone's thoughts when I start building "the strategy". I agree with Bull Run, and really value both the longer term insight AND the day trade talk. Since I am looking at my future market activity as a balance between the two, it is valuable to me to see how these "modes" bounce off one another. If that did not make sense, just fast scroll through any given day's Commentary. I think you'll see what I mean.

Learn/study/test
rinse
repeat
execute

I've been digging for more dirt on HRB and i haven't had any luck until now. I was a little mystified with the up day on HRB, although Fingerlakes made sense of it with ceo resignation euphoria.

Did you know Option One is #4 on a list of subprime lenders? 4.5B in new originations in Q2 2007 alone! only behind HSBC, First Franklin and Countrywide? Here is the full list.
http://tinyurl.com/2alycc

Here are some excerpts from an updated article from Bloomberg that collected more dirt as the day past:

"Unfortunately, Ernst's departure isn't going to remove the uncertainty over the sale of Option One,'' said analyst Scott Schneeberger at CIBC World Markets Inc. ``They're so mired now in subprime and the troubles there are getting so out of hand that his resignation isn't as momentous."

Option One's Future

The statement didn't say what will happen to Option One, which ranked as the sixth-largest U.S. subprime home lender through Sept. 30 (I have data that says #4, according to trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance. Ernst had said the unit may be closed if it isn't sold.

Breeden is also likely to sell or close H&R Block Financial Advisors, the company's securities arm that had 936 advisors as of July 31, Paris said. ``Breeden has said H&R Block shouldn't be in that business, either,'' Paris said.

H&R Block also has more writedowns ahead, according to Gimme Credit, the fixed-income analytical firm.

``We expect that with Mr. Ernst out of the way, HRB will finally come clean with the full extent of its losses on Option One, and the picture won't be pretty,'' said a report today by Gimme Credit analyst Kathleen Shanley.

http://tinyurl.com/2dd99n

"I probably have no idea what I am talking about, but with the RSI levels getting so low after today's selloff and the holiday approaching does anyone think there might be a pop in the indexes? so maybe QLD might be a good play?"
Posted by: bwl [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 20, 2007 3:23 PM

bwl- you know exactly what you're talking about..your post was minus 7 minutes to lift-off ;)
take a look at the daily RSI-7s now:
http://tinyurl.com/3yvzkg
not saying we will, but we're good to go down again...

Kudos to Bill. At the top of the morning, I was able to check in and get such wonderful clarity about his guidance on gold. For me, more clear and accessible than ever.
The volume of discourse is enormous...and fascinating. Personally, though, I have to discipline myself to not want to grasp it all. I can too easily loose my focus and build up stress with indecision. Some of us thrive on more input, some not. I seek it but it's like too much candy.
Re the "squawk" vs "the rest"....how is the "rest" defined? Intermediate trader? I wonder if it would help to have each color coded. Bill is white, trader is green, "the rest" is blue.????

So far so good 2nd...Asia starting red. A decisive move would make tomorrow easier!

I don't know about tomorrow but the volume should be very light Friday. Hard to go up on light volume, distressed retailers, failing financials, transports, low USD, high food/fuel.

Interesting week.

2nd

"if it makes you feel any better, i didn't pick up any FXP-"

Can you believe at 3:59:45 FXP was @82.8x approaching 83, so on a whim I put in a limited order for 200 shares @82 thinking with 15 secs left no way. Opened up my Scottrade account
2 hrs later and ...yep.... I picked up 200 shares. It ended up closing at 81.20 .

On the one hand I was surprised and felt good but on the other hand I was "bleep bleep" because I should of went in lower maybe @81.50.
oink...oink...oink

Anyhow ... I'm short tomorrow from the opening bell. Just hope Asia is dancing to the same music we were today.

Thanks for all your support today. It was not only profitable but fun.

Be watching for your posts tomorrow.

Also looks like you starting to get a big following here.

I hear the good traders perform best under pressure. :-)

RobBoss & moabmatt

Thanks fellows for those kind words above.

Next week why don't you two come out on to the floor and dance a little. Just remember not to be a "pig" like me and try for that last tick. If I would of pulled the trigger 2 mins earlier today I would of been up 1500 more. 2nd kept yelling at me to pull it and I kept thinking one more tick ... one more tick...

Onik onik oink

Tomorrow will be different [I hope] :-)

The talking heads will try to tell you we've now retested the August low.

Here are the updated versions of MarkM's charts.
Take a look at the August levels compared to now, RSI levels, and MACD.

http://tinyurl.com/2ectq6
http://tinyurl.com/26r24g
http://tinyurl.com/2f78g9 Compare RSI on this one, now to August.
http://tinyurl.com/yoxglr

craig- re volume- headline on TSM: SPY Volume at 3-Month High, Despite Upcoming Holiday
3:58 PM EST
The SPDR Trust (SPY) has posted its highest-volume day since the August 16th climax... (canceled my rights to read further a long time ago, but sometimes the headlines tell you most of what you need to know)

as for friday, i've heard that it's actually easier for someone (who wishes to do so) to push prices around on light volume days...so may actually be a good trading day->wife and kids will be leaving at 6am PDT for "black friday," so what else am i going to do anyway ;)

asia overnight->correlation coefficients (of opening numbers in asia to closing numbers in asia, as well as open and/or close in asia to open in europe or us, have drifted from positive to zero to negative...not surprised to see any recurring pattern traded into oblivion...time to read the little guy a story, see you in the morning...

I tried to warn you Isaiah!

"Be careful Isaiah,
The bull will panic if we get close to a 12846 close.....there may be some strength here so watch the chart carefully...RSI is turning south now..."

Posted by: Craig at November 20, 2007 3:05 PM

craig- you don't warn isaiah, my man...isaiah warns you ;) check out 64v4...goodnight guys...

My input on the "squawk": During the day, while at work, I am unable to follow the market and the day-trading comments. So naturally, I mostly read this blog at night. I end up doing a lot of scrolling to try and pick out the posts that are still meaningful hours after the market has closed. This can be time consuming and explains why I am posting at 11:00 pm my time.

But, I really do like the day-trader's comments. When I have the time I like to see them interspersed with the general discourse as they are now. IMO, it would be nice to have a pull-down menu capable of filtering the discourse by category. The simplest implementation (for your team of techies) would be to allow posters to choose a category when posting. Then the filter could display the self-categorized posts (or buckets of categories).

Just one more data point for consideration.

Hey Bill, May I suggest a "Voting" button or mechanism for each post, where Signed-In readers can express their belief that a particular author's addition to our discourse is beneficial or informative. . . the postings with the most "Votes" would be collected in one place (or otherwise separated from the herd) for easy perusal, meaning that the collective efforts of the readership could provide an "executive summary" of the most informative posts for those that are reading when time is of the essence . . . Thanks!

This comment is from Nouriel Roubini's blog... if you haven't heard of Nouriel I would suggest checking out his site, http://www.rgemonitor.com/

comment below.

“Watch That Basket”

Mark Twain once quipped: “Put all your eggs in one basket and -- WATCH THAT BASKET!”

People in my family lost most all of their 1967 accumulated blue chip savings, via Merrill Lynch advice. Withdrawn in 1982 it was a mere skeleton of its original value.

Likewise, investors that rode gold up to its $800 high with Howard Ruff and failed to get out at the high with Howard in 1981 (?), lost great value in just days.

This summer, a 62-year-old antique dealer in Sonora , California, told me of his loss of $400,000 in the Nasdaq crash, money which he has never recovered. During talk of recouping, he said, “I’m too old to starve.”

I myself made money on physical gold, but lost on gold stocks when my sell order was delayed.

My parents, self-employed business people, abiding by the old rule of no more than 6% to 8% of savings in speculation, put their defined benefit plan savings largely into CDs. After retiring in 1999, they saw its value halved by inflation by 2007 and its interest earnings slashed as Greenspan pushed interest rate income to historic lows to inflate the housing bubble. Social Security income also became a loser to high inflation, with its low 2% annual adjustments.

My point is that it’s hard enough to outwit the real market, let alone one manipulated by the Fed, the insiders, and the sales shills—whether in gold, currencies, equities, or in some cases, real estate. (Case in Point: the value of my parents’ office rose from $240,000 in 1984 to $1,500,000 in 2007 and their home from $90,000 in 1976 to $1,500,000 today--simply because they located in California and Greenspan blew a bubble. Of course, these values may deflate as the housing bubble implodes.)

I am, I know, cautious. I did not share in market windfalls to the extent of most on this blog; but, neither did I lose. Still, it makes me nervous when investors pour too much of their store into one or two single asset classes—even gold and silver, and particularly currencies. Just “Watch That Basket!”

RE New Website

As of 12:02 am, 266 posts today, well guess I've got a lot of reading, skimming and scrolling to do.

I see there are a few posts on the new website design and I would like to add a few more. Wish there was a separate page to do this but I guess no one wants to second that motion I made previously. It would certainly make things easier, I hope the tech team does not have to find these suggestions by reading every post, every day.

From the comments I've managed to stumble across in the last few days there seems to be two main camps; 1) continuous chronological, and 2) threaded view by subject.

So if we are to make all the people happy all the time, win win situation, then we need a system with the following design characteristics;

- sort by time, continuous chronological posts non-threaded, like now.
- sort by subject, threaded view
- subject headers
- replies linked to original posts
- scroll posts by specific author
- search entire database with various criteria & output formats
- bookmark authors and subject threads
- personal login page which shows new posts and new replies to your posts
- option to send messages between members
- poster rating

In summary the only system I've used which does virtually of the above is SMF (simple machine forums) and is quite common among discussion groups on the web. However the only option I haven't seen turned on is the full continuous chronological posting but its probably an option.

Just a few more ideas for the tech team, hope you guys get this and let me know if I can help in any way…...thanks

PS if you've read my previous comments you know I'm voting to have an option for threaded views.

ALOHA !!

Astral25 ... You can buy the PMCP certificate in either gold or silver and even if you buy "unallocated" you can switch it to "allocated" later. Yes there is a fee for fabrication and storage. If you are a US resident then you have to use a dealer located in the USA. Total cost for PMCP is $10,000USD for the first certificate "allocated" or "unallocated" and there after $5,000USD. Allocated metal is removed from the Perth Mint balance sheet and is no longer an asset of the mint and therefore not subject to seizure in the event of insolvency. In the rare event of insolvency then the government of West Australia steps in as insurer.

Yes I have been down to Albany a few times and have taken the train from Perth to Esperance once. Esperance is where Art Linkletter has 1mil acres he bought back in the 1960s for $1 per acre from the government! What a deal!! I believe it is a sheep station.

I have been surfing all up and down the coast there from Perth to Margaret River and North of Perth to Shark Bay. Amazing coastline and so vast and empty! Some excellent surfing if you like big waves like 20ft size. The swells are totally open to the Indian Ocean ... next stop Antartica or Africa ... take your pick! Alas that was my wild youth!! Last November I was starring at 20+ Bonzai Pipeline tubes. It's just too much work for an old guy like me any more!! I am too old to be suicidal! Thats a young man's game ...

Well you left out the most delightful part of Australia and that is the "Aussies" themselves!!! Quite an amazing lot eh? I always enjoyed their spirit! That is what I will look forward to most on my upcoming trip down under mate!!! That and a Swan or two! Ya can't do Australia without a bit of the amber fluid! I'll shout the first round! Cheers mate! TA!

The Yen just crossed below 109, people. That could spell real trouble for the markets if things don't reverse course by the time the sun rises in the land of E Pluribus Unum.

An earlier important post!!

"The demise of any forum, discourse is this type of activity." Come on, man...this is a not your typical blog...plenty of intelligent, vibrant, spontaneous and unedited discourse in real-time...also plenty of well-written treatises after hours...the real world is composed of real people with different personalities, styles and beliefs...let's not let intolerance get in the way of enjoying all of it...think of the blog as a cafe where the environment changes during market hours and you need to wade through a lot of "noise," and quiets down after-hours for more "serious" conversation...does a little carousing during happy hour mean the "demise" of the cafe? hardly...

"Doesn't need any fancy tech guys to figure out in months on how to divide, just some rules." a) you do learn rules here...b) also have "fancy tech guys" on the board...c) some of us need months to figure it out...d) nothing like real-time market discourse to help you learn how to "play" by the rules...e) get newbies coming on board every day...

my mood changes during the day and during the week...if i'm not in the mood for "squawk" or a long dissertation, i scroll past it...no offense intended and none taken...hope this helps...;)
Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 20, 2007 7:53 PM"

Great post 2nd. I agree totally. And I'll be here tomorrow and Friday as the wife only has Thursday off. Good luck.

Rob.

NYUGrad,
You rock with digging up the dirt on HRB. I just hope it means really bad news for their stock. It really doesn't look good with the executives diving overboard like that!! This one could be huge!! Thanks.

Rob.

ALOHA !!

wavesmash ... I read your post about losses and as I reflect on my losses most of them have been loans to friends and family! HA !! I find now in my older years I am as diversified in my holdings as anyone can be. Real estate(farmland and storage facilities), art & artifacts, commodity stocks(oil & metals), physical gold and silver and royalties and dividends.

Mainly this blog covers only DOW/Nasdaq stocks and oil and gold. I don't see much posting about real estate holdings or art. Its strange because I have made some excellent profits in real estate and art, but they are not as liquid.

Today I got a flyer from Sotheby's which I have participated in some of their auctions, but not recently. It seems they are desperate and moving more towards "online auctions" and trying to capture a wider clientele other than the usual NYC crowd! My last buys from Sotheby's I picked up some really excellent deals on New Zealand Maori Hei Tikis. My last trip to Australia(1998)I bought the best deal of my life from a Sotheby's charity auction I attended at a gallery in Sydney at The Rocks where I bought an original Charles Blackman for $4500USD, one of the last paintings he has painted. That is no typo ... $4-5-0-0!! Not $450,000! $4500USD! It was a silent auction and to this day I have no idea how I ended up with that painting! I left Sydney thinking I'd never win and then when I was in Christchurch, New Zealand the gallery called me and said, "YOU WON ... WHERE DO WE SHIP IT!" I almost fainted!! I did not believe it at all!! The painting is about 82cm x 105cm and if you Google Charles Blackman you'd see none of his work sells for less than $50,000USD even for an original painting one quarter that size. It was a total fluke on my part. I had always admired Blackman's work but could never afford it and then that day I was intrigued by a local Sydney artist by the name of Theresa Byrnes. I met her there at the gallery and we talked for about an hour or two. She told me she was in the upcoming Sotheby's auction in two days and that I should put in a bid on Charles Blackman's painting(he is a friend of hers). She showed me his painting and I did put in a bid thanks to her! She is quite amazing and I bought one of her paintings. I now own two of hers and she now also has a gallery in NYC. I send her tropical flowers to her gallery in NYC. She and I are still friends and she may meet up with me in Sydney when I am there in Jan. Hopefully so ... Google her if you want to read a truly inspirational story of triumph over GREAT adversity! That's kind of how I do art through "people" and the artists themselves. I have no art degree, I just buy what I like and I swear I have never lost any money in art, but I have to admit that the better pieces I have never sold either and am not so sure I ever will! I'd have to be real desperate ... I thoroughly enjoy art and the hunt as well as the people that I have met.

kaimu....
An idea I have been thinking more about is investing in vintage automobiles. Any thoughts on that?

Kaimu,

Can you (or anyone) recommend a good one-stop primer for investing in art? TIA and Happy Thanksgiving. Jake

Ha! No pre-Thanksgiving "fat and happy" for me! Looks like we are continuing negative today.

That's good with me.

Greetings from the Amish Country.

Here are today's Cara 100 changes as of 8:00 EST:

New Coverage:
INTC - Neutral - Price target $30 by Robert Baird

Target Lowered:
WFMI - $55 >> $54 at RBC

Back with more as they happen. Have a great trading day and a great turkey day to our American friends.

Thanks 2nd....

Bought FXP on your call yesterday. You made me money so far this AM.

I nibbled more QID....all working out today.

This is turning out to be a really nice Thanksgiving.

Michigan revised sentiment numbers due out. Strong negatives there will get T/heads making scary talk about "Gray Friday."

Potash Corp

"Elena Viyella De Paliza who is a director of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) recently bought 1,500 shares in the
public market at US$112.76. Over the past 90 days, insiders have been net sellers of just under $17,000 worth of stock when
the price of option exercises is included. Meanwhile the share price has outperformed the market by 25% during the period.
This small selling is a bullish sign at this point in time given the rapid rise of the stock versus the market."

www.canadianinsider.com

ALOHA !!

Jaketh ... I cannot recommend a "one stop" primer on art. I learned what I know from my Uncle who was an avid art collector and told me to stick with well known artists who have a large following and to attend art auctions even if I have no intention of buying. I did do that for the most part and have been to many auctions via Sothebys, Christies, Butterfields etc ... I have also gone to a lot of exhibits for artifacts and art that I am interested in. I went to a Maori exhibit at a museum in Auckland, New Zealand way back and met Dr. Terrance Barrow, who later moved to Hawaii over near Honolulu and worked with the Bishop Museum and other South Pacific museums authenticating tribal artifacts from various Polynesian cultures. He has authored many books about the Maori and was considered the World expert on the Maori culture. He taught me a lot about Hei Tiki and has authenticated a few that I have found at pawn shops, NZ jewelry stores and auctions.

krishnamertidude ... I know nothing about vintage cars except to say that I wish I could find a good deal on a Volkswagen Thing here on the Big Island!