Good morning

It looks as if we're in for a lower opening on Wall Street. I have just posted my regular weekly article highlighting some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a few performance charts.

Here is the link to the "words from the wise": http://tinyurl.com/3xlrpp

I know Bill was saying stay away from the casinos...(And I am SHORT MGM)Seems like the boys at Barrons have been reading Bills Blog...

Barron’s cover story discusses casino stocks, which are up 173%, 140% and 127% in 2ys, for Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn (WYNN) and MGM (MGM), respectively. "Some investors seem to think high margins are perpetual and are disappointed when they find out otherwise, but you're starting to see margins pressured as supply gets saturated and competition increases," says Wahid Chammas, of Janus Capital. 2ys ago, Chammas advocated betting on Macau while the public wavered, but he is more circumspect today. "The story has been discovered." While Wynn and LVS have upped Macau's wow factor, nearly everyone is building and renovating. Cash-flow margins of around 30% will come under pressure with competition, possible discounting, and as all-important junkets, which bring tourists to Macau and hence control customers, lobby for a bigger slice of the take. Another correction of 25-30% would merely take LVS and Wynn to levels they were at in July, and they'd still be richer than their peers on most valuation measures. Today, even after the recent declines, LVS and Wynn sport enterprise values that are 34 and 22x their respective ‘08 Ebitda. To put that in perspective, Harra’s (HET), which has no Macau casinos, is being acquired by buyout firms at a comparable 9.9x multiple. "Betting on these stocks is like betting on the winning horse after the race," says David Trainer, of New Constructs. He thinks LVS and Wynn are overvalued. "Their current mkt valuations imply huge future cash-flow growth." Another co mentioned as “pure play on Macau” – Melco PBL (MPEL), whose shares fetch 164x ‘08 earnings.

This news is weeks old..Read it here...

Yes Bill,
They're taking $38B in bonuses while the losses to come from Banks and Brokers, according to GS, is going to be at least another $105 Billion.

They do get theirs, and then hopefully will GET THEIRS, if you know what I mean....

C was downgraded to a SELL by GS today, not on the up/downgrade list.

2nd, I'll be buying UUP today and adding to shorts on strength, unless of course Abby Joseph Cohen, Bianco and Jason Trenert **aren't** high, which I seriously doubt. Anyone else here think we see S&P 1600 by year end? It must have been a hell of a weekend for those three.

Craig

Are you still holding QID and DUG? And what's your take on SKF if the Financials rise this AM?

Craig...

Very possible 1600 by year end (mid JAN)...Even within a bear market or start of...the rallies can be quite impressive..

The only way it can happen is if the SHORTS run for cover...They are a nervous bunch and that is the only way I see it happening..SHORT SQUEEZE..

I am betting against that, but keeping 2 WATCHFUL eyes on the market at this time..

#1) On my CHRISTMAS LIST TO SANTA A nice rally right here...To bring volitility down AND THEN I CAN BACK UP THE TRUCK ON THE SHORT SIDE...

Please Santa make my wish come true...

Isaiah,
Financials aren't going up this AM my friend. C, UBS were downgraded, they will lead financials down IMO.

Yes, still in QID. No DUG but would take a chance to start a position on oil strength.

Certainly would look at SDS, DXD, some of the other ultrashorts should the opportunity arise.

craig- everyone's entitled to an opinion, and AJC has credibility, so i'll add her outlook to the cross-currents...since the extent of brokerage write-downs is not yet known, she either knows more than the general public, or is simply making a call (does she back up her call with a thesis as to how we get there and which sectors will lead?)...there are analysts with just as much credibility calling for the opposite, of course...

JOF (japan small-cap) mentioned on barron's...when it's time to go long japan, take a look->much larger trading range compared to EWJ...

Today's Cara 100 U/Ds:

Upgrades:
QCOM - Neutral to Overweight at JP Morgan

Downgrades:
C - Neutral to Sell at Goldman Sachs

Back with more if/when they occur.

Have a great day all.

Craig

Thanks

Additional Cara 100 U/Ds:

Downgrades:
UBS - Sector Outperform to Sector Perform at CIBC

Craig...Take a look at AJC picks from 2000-2001

On November 27, 2000, in a widely followed financial publication, The Mother AJC recommended a basket of stocks. Here's how those picks have done.

11/27/00
3/23/01
% Ch.

KRB
35.13
30.21
-14.01%

AXP
53
36.8
-30.57%

RE
58.38
61.32
5.04%

ALL
37.25
39.2
5.23%

MET
28.56
27.5
-3.71%

WFC
44.31
45.42
2.51%

SOTR
31.38
42.56
35.63%

ZION
54
79.25
46.76%

DOX
60.5
50.2
7.40%

EMC
84.25
36.1
-59.20%

SLR
34.69
21.04
-24.20%

GLW
64.31
23.86
-58.00%

CSCO
51.25
17.75
-59.70%

SUNW
44.09
18.25
-53.90%

ITWO
56.59
16.125
-65.50%

VRTS
106
53.875
-45.00%

Average Loss


-19.45%

IS this is a person you would trust.

Mid Year Update

Here's an update on the Mother's picks, as of June 29, 2001.

11/27/00
6/29/01
% Ch.

KRB
35.13
33
-6.06%

AXP
53
38.8
-26.79%

RE
58.38
74.8
28.13%

ALL
37.25
43.99
18.09%

MET
28.56
30.98
8.47%

WFC
44.31
46.43
4.78%

SOTR
31.38
26
-17.14%

ZION
54
59
9.26%

DOX
60.5
53.85
-10.99%

EMC
84.25
29.25
-65.28%

SLR
34.69
18.3
-47.25%

GLW
64.31
16.71
-74.02%

CSCO
51.25
18.2
-64.49%

SUNW
44.09
15.72
-64.35%

ITWO
56.59
19.8
-65.01%

VRTS
106
66.53
-37.24%

Average Loss

-25.62%

SPX
1348.97
1224.42
-9.23%

Let's see now. The SPX is down 9% and the Mother's basket is down 25.6%.

Pretty good track record going into a BEAR MARKET..

Alrighty. We get GS saying there is another $105B in SIV/CDO junk to come, they downgrade the banks and brokers and are calling for recession. Then their Chief trader comes out with S&P 1600 by years end? Where is the smoke machine?

Then we get Tobias Levkovich, C's Chief strategist making bullish calls this AM on talkibng head central. And we should trust them because.....?????

They're the ones getting chopped by GS!!! That would be AJC's call wouldn't it?

Don't get me wrong, these folks wield too much influence and capital to ignore, but I am concluding at this point that they are blowing a lot of smoke.

2nd, I'd take AJC with a large grain of salt. I don't follow her prognostications closely, but I recall her claiming back in the summer of '06 that the market would continue going higher due to strong cap-ex.

Well, the market did go higher in nominal terms, but not for that reason.

Craig, UUP is a gutsy trade given what happened at the OPEC meeting. And what's up with it's chart with those weird spikes last week?

bg- might consider partial (ultra-short) sales into sharp sell-offs, and THEN backing up the truck into SPY 160 if it happens...still undecided as to whether returns from ST trades can keep up with buy-and-hold, but sometimes it helps you sleep at night->when you're out, you really don't care what the news is...on the other hand, you can be caught on the sidelines during a big move...

Busy Morning. Additional Cara 100 U/Ds:

Upgrade:
BMY - Underperform to Neutral at Cowen

2nd

Basics 101:

What are SPYs? Right now SPY is @145.79. So if there is a sell off this will cause SPY to go up, is that the rational? Then you would buy up to 160?

Number2son: Nah, OPEC made a boo-boo making that available on their tv feed, but the Saudi's killed any trouble by Iran and Chavez.

While I'm with the longterm view that the USD will weaken and gold go higher, I'm watching Bill's call for ST PM weakness/USD strength and all the chest pounding by Paulson et al and a slowing econ pulling oil in a bit.

I'm trading the chart so the timeline is second to second, so not that risky or gutsy sitting on the button.

Heck, I'm still short a few shares of GDX too!
Same trade more or less.

underlying index for SPY (ETF) is the S&P500->so if AJC is calling for 1600 by year-end=SPY 160...and bg would then load up on QID...

Cara 100 Target Changed:

KSS - $61 to $57 at BMO

Noront- i see 450,000 options granted to insiders in November at 5.13 (presumably CDN)..

http://tinyurl.com/2vs323

will be looking for another play..

Going back to the issue of "liquidity puts" reported in Saturday's posts, isn't it illegal for the banks to get the original loans off their balance sheets knowing that they could be forced to buy the CDOs back? Any accountants here that can comment on this?

Also, it seems that no bank chose to mention the puts to investors before October. Is this not an Enron-like scenario that can cause class action lawsuits?

CFC- set to open below it's 52-wk low...

2nd

Thanks.... I see what you mean now.

And you laughed when I said SBUX Customers were going to McDonalds..

Well...How's This...

http://tinyurl.com/2afqfy

Does MCD's see the high margins being made by SBUX?

Cramer flip-flops, housing call by WFC, Ron Paul for President...

Don Harrolds latest video:

http://tinyurl.com/2z2nrt

Have fun.

GSS, WGW, and NOT.V- on the short-list...anyone have entry targets (or recommendations to stay away)?

Bull HUnter,

And how is he on tv? How has no one filed a law suit against him, cnbc, ge?

Imagine how many people have lost money on his recommendations. Sure the liability is on the individual but national tv can be a huge influence.

Guys,
Cramer drives "mad" money into the market...can't "sane" players benefit?

I think this one is worthy of a repost:
"In this paper we argue that a Ponzi scheme is an ingenious method to expropriate state assets by a politically well-connected promoter in a transition economy. How? The promoter lures citizens with promises of incredible returns. The promoter exploits their rational belief that, if enough of them take part, the assets of the state may be used for a bailout if the scheme fails. So the Ponzi scheme in a transition economy is really a cynical exploitation of the "too big to fail doctrine" by a private citizen. The contribution of this paper is to detail how this can happen, and then link our hypothesis and its implications to some spectacular Ponzi schemes that have occurred in transition economies."
http://www.mlm-beobachter.de/mlm/ponzischemes_org.htm

NYUgrad,

I love Cramer and CNBC, using them as a contrarian indicator.

In early October 2007, Cramer was pounding the table to buy banks. I bought SKF at $72. This morning it's trading over $100.

I love Cramer. :^)

Regards

Hi,

The FED renewed the 5,25 BN USD maturing today, AND added another 5,5 BN ADDITONAL FUNDS, reaching a new total of 47,75 BN in "temporary" operations.

I'm waiting.
Covered the GDX short at the low. Not quite up to buying it though.

Looks to be a serious assault starting off so negative.

WGW: would buy a lot at 3.38
NOT: have to call Scottrade, I like it. Looks like insiders agree with the Wizard.
No call on GSS.
Still small QID holding...waiting.

It wouldn't be "mad" money if you had a long strategy on an equity. The difficulty resides in choosing which one and which sector.

NOT.V- craig, hope you have better execution with scotttrade...it's been hit or miss with fidelity...set a limit this morning at 4.73 well before it took a dive to 4.67, and it could be an hour before i know if it filled...whereas, last friday, i had two immediate fills (4.67 and 4.49), followed by a surprise fill at 4.27 (limit was 4.35) that showed up 2 hours later)...

Bill:

This AM you wrote,"...Besides, the RSI-7 is 33.8 / 35.9 / 25.1 for the Monthly-Weekly-Daily. As readers know, that’s not good enough for me..."

I have been researching your blogs and other sites for the past few months in an attempt to understand and apply the AZ and DZ technique to my style but I have not been able to find the numbers that are "good enough for you." Should they be in the teens,the 20's? When do you buy based on the RSI (I realize other factors are considered when actually buying)...when the RSI is below 30 or after the RSI comes back above 30?

From what I can gather a SELL Alert is given when the RSI drops below 70 so I would assume that a BUY ALERT is given when the RSI rises above 30...

I trust you won't take my "isn't good enough for you" as if it means I think nothing is good enough for you LOL

I know this stuff isn't "rocket science" but every once-in-a while my sensors just don't get it.

Craig, 2nd:
Looking at WGW today is like looking at grass grow. I set an alert to wake me up at 3.60 (the 10 day ema).

Looks like they are running the stops in gold and silver>>>

Gut check anyone? LOL!

XAU not looking healthy....

As I was looking at sentiment this weekend, it seemed that all the bears were expecting a strong market simply because it's Thanksgiving week. We shall see if that pans out.

My Crazy Alter ego...

I WANT TO GO LONG CFC HERE...

AM I CRAZY?...SOMEONE HELP ME...I THINK SHoRT TERM BOUNCE...

HELP....

Abby Joseph Cohen has ZERO credibility. Her appearances on CNBC where she calls for higher stock prices (at a time when the equity market had already made a nice move higher) have been well documented near term tops. She is a well documented FADE. Do a search on this site to see here CNBC escapades, I can't find the link to the chart as of now.

have a great day!

bg- are you turning into a day-trader ;)

XAU down 4% GDX -3.15% and the chart still looks like a short. Scary.

Thanks go34, I already came to that conclusion.
Anyone doubting it, see the Barrons 06 year end predictions from the big wigs which included AJC. A case of Goldman talking out both sides....what else is new. Her job is to sell.

bg- are you turning into a day-trader ;)

2nd,
I might have to lower my buy price for WGW....coming to me a little to easily.

maximum frustration- nothing would make me happier than to see black monday the same day AJC calls S&P 1600...but frustration usually applies to traders, not to analysts ;)

Basket guy.
I was thinking the same thing. It seems as if everyone wants to see their risky stuff before they leave for Thanksgiving. BSC and C could be in for a short-term bounce too. And how about GS? They downgrade everyone in their sector including LEH and they are still going up. What gives?

Rob.

2nd_ave...

Thinking out loud...Hey Fingerlakes sounds like he may be on board...

I just think that everyone at this point has ahd tooooooooo much time to pile in on the short side...Especially in the financials...

That's usually when the tide turns and in a big way...What do you think???

NOT.V- filled at 4.724...

IVN has now retraced back to its 62% fib on the daily (and then some). FWIW, a close below the 62% line would tend to confirm a reversal in trend.

This is one miner I have on my list to buy when the correction has fully run its course.

To the guys that put together the RSI spreadsheet, that is awesome! What a great community this is becoming!

With that said, I highly recommend to novice traders to take the extra step (by not using the spreadsheet yet), which takes time, I know, but I still take the time. Make a list of the Cara 100 on paper or in a watch list on your trading site/software and simply pull up charts of each and every stock on the list (the list should be in GICS - all energy, consumer staples, etc. together) as Bill categorizes them. It only takes a couple minutes each day to pull up the charts, but you will learn the ebb and flow of the markets. Some will be topping, some will be in no man's land and some will be approaching accumulation levels. Do this everyday and your trading will improve. After you improve, you can use the worksheet to narrow your search - as I say it is a great tool. Noticed CEO this morning and did a more detailed analysis, looking interesting, at 50%, former support/resistance close, no position.

Gold will bottom when we hear that the run is over. It is not.

bg- don't really have an opinion on CFC (although i'd be inclined to sell SKF if i had any)...prefer scaling into junior miners at this point...WFC is a very well-managed company, if you're looking for bargains in the financial sector...

Holding dry powder, this is a serious assault on DOW 13,000.

I don't think you buy THIS dip, yet.

Me to Craig. I'm A little underwater on my QID. Bought it on the head fake Friday morning. oops Still think it will pay off though.

Watching my personal little cash cow crash this am. YGE. have been buying weakness & selling the rallies for a month now. Don't thing today is a buy day though. Looks like the fan are seriously loosing confidence in this stock.

The weakness today is surprising to me. We are down nearly one and a half percent after less than two hours of trade.

I commented last week that several weeks before the '87 crash there was a monster 3% one-day rally off of support. When that rally was undercut the real selling began. The 3% rally of 11/14/07 has already been undercut here. If last-ditch support at 1420 on the S&P is breached I am thinking it will get really ugly.

I have been thinking that a light rally for a few weeks was possible here, and perhaps still is, since the market is getting very oversold. We shall see. Today is a freight train south so far.

GDX - August low to November high fib 50% level equals roughly $43 price, which is also former support resistance. That describes my "2 legged stool" (former support/resistance plus fib levels overlapping), the "third leg" that makes the trade very stable is if an uptrend line intersects at the same levels. This happens more often than you would think and has allowed traders that buy on those points to lower the risk on that buy. The "fouth leg" would be for the RSI 7 to have dropped below 30 and turns up as the other three legs provide support. Too bad there is no third leg, looks like the fourth will be possible (RSI below 30 when the price hits $43). BTW, GDX is at $45.33 now with RSI slightly above 30.

Buys before the "stool" is in place would be described by me as "catching a falling knife" (or as another definition of stool). If the trade is obvious as this one may be at the time (fundamentals?), I may purchase partial positions above the "perfect" support price with mental stops in place. That is where the trade gets tricky, because the support may be breached momentarily, but it simply is a "throw over" where the weak hands puke their fresh longs, sell stops are hit and THEN the price rises. The support held, but the low would be below the $43. $43 is just a number that I am using as an example, please don't do this trade based on what I am writing today.

No position, no recommendation, just thought I'd throw some words down this am.

Lasarus,
I'm out of QID here.

All: Back to your regular jawboning...
Paulson is PPT today.

Does anyone follow Harvest Energy Trust,HTE ? It is $2usd above its book value and currently pays a 20% dividend.

Does anyone follow Harvest Energy Trust,HTE ? It is $2usd above its book value and currently pays a 20% dividend.

About the "Fed" injections. Going over the Fed published data, the total amount "injected" since Jan 2006 until today is just $1B.
The total amount "injected" since 2007 until today is just $7B. This is done by adding all the published daily "net adds".

You can see a monthly table here:
http://fon.gs/fed/ (fon.gs is just a nicer tinyurl)

Thursday we will likely hear about some huge "injections" again. Perhaps it should be featured in MythBusters TV :-)

Anyone holding FXP.... lst week it was down around 72 now it's over 90...

I missed that gravy train!

Alright, I'm dying laughing now.....

If you don't think the PPT is on the job 24/7/365, get a load of this...
Paulson's comments (on a down 160 day) are from a press conference in......Akosombo, Ghana.

How many other folks there in Ghana do you think have the DOW/S&P/COMP on their blackberry?
Too much!

Isaiah,
Maybe start watching the other side of that trade, the FXI. It can be played both ways BUT there is big risk to the downside with China/FXI.

Doesn't look like "the big crash." But we've seen lots of sell offs so far. Its a matter of perception whether its a bear market or just a correction.

October's black monday, tuesday, wednesday, thursday, friday didn't happen, except in the credit markets. So the theory goes that we will see a rout to follow as it had in August, except now in November. I have to agree the fundamentals look like it.

Craig...

Ok....I'll keep an eye on it...

thanks for the heads up...

EEV- taking all of it off here...
QID- actually thinking about adding->how much longer can they extend the divergence in the QQQQ?

I sold my HTE some 4-5months ago. It's having problems with it's refinery ops. The crack spread went against it in the summer, it shut down it's refinery ops for "maintenance", good thing because it's a money loser at these levels. It should turn around over the next few qtrs, but I'd stay away. If your looking for divi's, look at CPG or BTE. I believe HTE may have recently cut it's divi! Also having problems replacing reserves, the DRIP adds are killing it and it's still too "gassy".... not a pretty picture.

Bill, I have some questions regarding your Bahama/Swiss banking accounts, please email me.

The following is extracted from http://theswoop.net

Perhaps I am misreading it, but I see it as a reinforcement of the power of the HB&B worldview, and concerns about the TIC balances. I have previously indicated this site which publishes weekly on US foreign affairs to be concise and interesting (5-6 concise overviews). And more importantly, they until now have been ahead of the curve and remarkably accurate.

As a counterpoint, while lunching with a friend the other day he remarked that perhaps these were the comments of the CIA or whatever. Regardless, I recommend the site as a another tool, albeit not nearly as important a tool as BillCara.com

"Making Foreign Investment Easier
Published on: November 17th 2007 17:35:57 With doubts increasing about the future of the US economy, the White House is signaling that it continues to welcome foreign investment in the US. On November 8th, the Federal Reserve approved the request by China Merchants Bank to open a branch in New York. Further, the Administration is quietly seeking to ease the application of new rules expanding the ability of the Pentagon and the Department of Homeland Security to block foreign investment on grounds of a risk to “critical infrastructure” and “critical technology.” The rules also empower the Director of National Intelligence to undertake a “threat assessment” of pending investments. The White House fears that this system may be slow and that national security pretexts could be used to disguise protectionist aims. A Treasury official told us: “The US now faces a much more competitive field for foreign investment. We do not want to allow our approval system to become unpredictable.” To counter this, we are told that President Bush intends to give the Treasury control over the decision-making process inside the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US. His objective is to ensure that the economic and financial advantages of foreign investment will be given higher priority over possible national security risks. In taking this approach, Bush is acting against a growing trend in Congress toward greater suspicion of foreign investment. As the assets available to sovereign wealth funds continue to soar, their investments in the US – especially from China – are likely to attract sharper scrutiny."

Craig, 2ndAve
Question?
Does this mornings rout continue into todays close?
If it does, does that set us up for a bounce tomorrow?

Trend Portfolio

I have a lot of Cara 100's on the short list and each of them is profitable so far.

Trend portfolio starts with Cara100 and first determines the trend using slope of 22 day and week moving averages. Wait for dip down to 13 day moving average and then confirm that trend resumes before a purchase. I had been up as much a 10% overall since August but now am up just under 5%. This is a work in progress for me.

Portfolio: http://tinyurl.com/yoe5j2
Forecasts: http://tinyurl.com/34tqpz

constructive comments welcome

for you folks who like numbers:
Gold is 777.70, down 7.70 at 09:47 mountain time.

I have added the RSI Gadget to my webpage:
http://www.bitdrip.com/

There you can see what it looks like and even use it to get RSI values. There are also directions on the page to explain the different ways you can use the gadget.

Thank you to the the community for your comments and suggestions.

LOL! Craig, shaking lucky 8 ball.....

"Ask again later" Dammit!

I have no idea, but it feels like one of those bigger down days with perhaps a bounce tomorrow on the perception of "oversold" and maybe the talking heads pushing the Thanksgiving week traditional strength. After Friday is anyone's guess, but I'm betting on not so good sales.

That's just an opinion. In fact I have no better idea than anyone else here!

My bias right now is negative.

Is anyone else having trouble with the tinyurl links this morning. I get "HTTP 500 - Internal Server Error" in every browser...

Graig...LOL

Thanks. I just wanted to pick your brain.
I feel the same.
Other than my QID which my Trading plan calls for holding till next week (unless my stops kick in) I am all cash.

yes, happening to me.

lazarus- still holding QID, as it's still treading water IMO->if its sells off hard at the close, will definitely be making partial sales...o/w, waiting for the next sharp move..

2ndAve
Thanks for your input. Yes if it sells off hard into todays close it will trigger my stops.

I picked a bad entry Friday morning.
Hey I'm still a rookie it happens.

But won't stick around to let it eat my lunch.
However I still think the NDX will be lower by middle of next week. JMHO

NOT: in @ $4.76 USD in multiple accts.

Bill,

Regarding the expression 'write a ton of puts', which you recently used for WMT and, at the August bottom, for PG, sure enough to timely effect - what sort of allocation (if any) did you have in mind when mentioning this?

I'd think that, the term being apparently used to describe a true bargain, writing puts to a close equivalent of the maximum leverage that a broker will allow -normally twice the trade-allocated cash reserve- is surely mandated (assuming I am willing to eventually be put the stock using max.margin at strike). I understand risk management tolerance varies, but I'd like to ask, were you referring to 'a ton as capital allocation', 'a ton as in low-risk, therefore higher-leverage', or both?

(...mentioning leverage with caution as this and greed brought us into today's mess)

Thanks

Craig

Another Basic 101 question: How amny times can you buy and sell the same stock in one trading day?

I'm not aware of a limit in a margin acct.

Craig,

Thanks

Isaiah64v4...

Be careful...Patern Day trading...Buy and sell the same stock more than 4 times in I think 4 trading days...

Can result in your account being limited to trading only your cash balance..NOT MARGIN...Unless you have a balance of 25000 or more in your account

Under the rules of NYSE and NASD, customers who are deemed "pattern day traders" must have at least $25,000 in their accounts and can only trade in margin accounts. For more information, you can read the NASD's Notice to Members and the New York Stock Exchange's Information Memo.

BG,
He's got a margin acct and I don't think they will give you one w/o the funds ($25,000) at Scottrade.

I factored that into my answer.
If he was a regular acct. then he would run into the limit on clearing funds sooner or later.

"Another Basic 101 question: How amny times can you buy and sell the same stock in one trading day?"

For those US taxpayers reading this BLOG: if you are a very active trader, then you should look into the tax issues that you'll face. Particularly the "Trader in Securities" designation from the IRS, and the ramification of not having that designation, as well as the Mark to Market designation.

If you do not have those designations, then the 30 day wash sale rule may apply to your trading.

I'm not an accountant, but I did have a very negative tax effect in 2003 - it was a huge negative. It could have been avoided if someone had told me these things.

DaveB

Thank you. I have been wondering about those issues.

I am aware of the "Wash Sale" rule but was un-aware of the others.

Will have to look them up.

Hey All,
Watch those indices.....DOW VERY close to 13,000

Basketguy,

Thanks for that follow up. I got the $25,000 so I'll be ok under those rules.

Thanks !

DaveB,

Thanks...will check into that for sure.

Wow! Feeling that in your stomach yet 2nd?

Bill -

Thanks for the update on West High Yield - very informative. I thought they were focusing on the Ni not the Mg?

Crystallex is in this hard assets conference this afternoon, in San Francisco, at 10:57 PT (1:57 EST.

http://www.iiconf.com/pebble.asp?relid=71723

2nd & Craig

What is your take on a buy of SSO to play the possible bounce tomorrow since the SP is down so much today?

craig- when you're on the right side of a trade, you don't feel it in your stomach->emanates more from the head...;)

LOL! i'm talking about the actual vertigo you could feel on that last downdraft!

I can handle being on the right side....

Isaiah,
Don't know, have never looked into it.

isaiah- i see you're off the side streets and onto the freeway now...why don't you keep your position sizes small until you find your rhythm?
good luck...

On BNN just now, " Citi thinks "repulsive" sentiment in banks offers a contrarian signal." Citigroup says banks are undervalued and advises investors to be overweight banks. :-)

Here is a great exerpt from the latest John Mauldin's free weekly newsletter, which explains how CPI is calculated:

"Just for the record, I want to state that I know as does nearly everyone else who pays attention to the CPI statistics that they are bogus. They do not reflect the real world that you and I, gentle reader, live in. So, while it may look like I take them at face value, I do so only because the Fed pays attention to the number, (nod, nod, wink, wink) and makes policy based upon it. So, let's look at how the calculation of the CPI has been politicized and how much of a difference it makes, and then go on to the expectation for statistical inflation in the near future.

John Williams writes an excellent monthly letter on all types of government statistics called the Shadow Government Statistics at www.shadowstats.com. One of the things he points out that during the Clinton administration, the way the BLS calculates inflation was changed. He calculates his own inflation number using the old pre-Clinton inflation model. Using that methodology suggests that inflation is at 7%. And if you use other methods, inflation might even be substantially higher.

Since the CPI is used to calculate the increase in Social Security payments and a host of other items, calculating inflation is important. I the early 1990s the arguments in the press was that inflation was over-stated. Michael Boskin, chief economist in the first Bush administration and Alan Greenspan were among the chief proponents for a new methodology of accounting for inflation.

Quoting Williams: "Up until the Boskin/Greenspan agendum surfaced, the CPI was measured using the costs of a fixed basket of goods, a fairly simple and straightforward concept. The identical basket of goods would be priced at prevailing market costs for each period, and the period-to-period change in the cost of that market basket represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a constant standard of living.

"The Boskin/Greenspan argument was that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak, and that the inflation measure should reflect the costs tied to buying hamburger versus steak, instead of steak versus steak. Of course, replacing hamburger for steak in the calculations would reduce the inflation rate, but it represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a declining standard of living. Cost of living was being replaced by the cost of survival. The old system told you how much you had to increase your income in order to keep buying steak. The new system promised you hamburger, and then dog food, perhaps, after that.

"The Boskin/Greenspan concept violated the intent and common usage of the inflation index. The CPI was considered sacrosanct within the Department of Labor, given the number of contractual relationships that were anchored to it. The CPI was one number that never was to be revised, given its widespread usage.

"Shortly after Clinton took control of the White House, however, attitudes changed. The BLS initially did not institute a new CPI measurement using a variable-basket of goods that allowed substitution of hamburger for steak, but rather tried to approximate the effect by changing the weighting of goods in the CPI fixed basket. Over a period of several years, straight arithmetic weighting of the CPI components was shifted to a geometric weighting. The Boskin/Greenspan benefit of a geometric weighting was that it automatically gave a lower weighting to CPI components that were rising in price, and a higher weighting to those items dropping in price.

"Once the system had been shifted fully to geometric weighting, the net effect was to reduce reported CPI on an annual, or year-over-year basis, by 2.7% from what it would have been based on the traditional weighting methodology. The results have been dramatic. The compounding effect since the early-1990s has reduced annual cost of living adjustments in social security by more than a third."

Then to confuse the process even more, the BLS uses something called hedonics, from the root word hedonism. Essentially, the adjust the price of an item based on the "pleasure" or increased value you get. Thus, they don't price automobiles based on the sticker price, but on what you get for your money. If the manufacturers load in more items like new electronics or anti-locking brakes that were not standard the year before that means you are getting more value for your dollar, so therefore the price in terms of inflation goes down even though you may be paying the same or even more to get out of the car show room.

The same is true for computers. We clearly get more power every year, so for the BLS the price of computers are going down, although it seems to me that the price I pay for a top of the line computer is about the same as it was five or ten years ago.

Social Security expenses are $657 billion per year. If Williams is right (and I think he is) that under the old methodology that expenses would have risen by a third, then that means we are spending $200 billion a year less. Add $200 billion to the deficit. And then watch politicians panic.

I am not one to suggest conspiracy, but if the CPI reflected the real world, the US government would be spending far more money on Social Security and a host of other pension programs. The crisis we will be experiencing in about 8 years would have already hit us. Thus, there was an incentive for leaders to find economists who could argue for new, more "progressive" methods for calculating inflation. Notice that this was done by the BLS without any protest from Congress.

None of this was done behind closed doors. The BLS, to its credit, is extremely open about how it calculates CPI, and you can get an enormous amount of detail on their web site about prices of things like tomatoes in very part of the country going back for decades. But the way we calculate the CPI is not going to change. No administration will want to go back and add in an extra 4-5% a year to Social Security and other government pension programs."

isaiah- taking partial profits (20% of position) on QID at 41.39...

2nd..

Can I ask you your reasoning why you are cashing out some QID now verse maybe at the end of the day [possible sell off]. Or a bigger sell off a day or two from now?

FRED...

Lets back up the truck...BUY BUY BUY THE FINANCIALS...WOOHOO...I'M CRAZY SOMEBODY STOP ME...

Can CITI UPGRADE THEIR OWN STOCK?

With two hours to go the bulls will fight like hell to close above support on the S&P and DOW.
Don't know if we bounce from here and maybe sell into close or bounce and hold. Damned lucky 8 ball is murky.

risk management, that's all...i have my own rhythm, which is to start buying when the selling starts to accelerate, and to start selling when the upside starts to accelerate....in fact, reloading half the 20% i took off now to lock in a 0.60 move->it lowers my basis, and gives me something to do while waiting for the big picture to play out...

ok so the acceleration in the downtrend that we've posted on is now occuring. some have even begun to ask about a potential bounce and 1600 SPX by year-end.

to get an initial signal that the downtrend is getting closer to a bottom, we'll need to see a -2.5% to -3.5% down day. we're not there yet.

( for more on the stock market downtrend in 2007, see our March 2007 research report on http://www.2globalmarkets.com )

bg- sounds like you plunged into the morning sell-off in financials?

Mg

Bill, to give some answer to your question about extracting magnesium from silicates versus carbonates:

There is substantially more Mg in olivine, (2 Mg for every silicate molecule in forsterite), than in dolomite, (typically fewer than 1 Mg for every 6 carbonate molecules).

Also, dolomite dissolves with difficulty in HCl, whereas olivine dissolves more readily in same.

While dolomite can be used as Mg ore, the incredible abundance of dolomite, (it underlies virtually all of southern Ontario very close to the surface), is de facto evidence that olivine is a preferred source. In other words, dolomite is more valuable as gravel than as magnesium ore.

QID- re-entering the last 10% at 40.45...

2nd ave...

Only my alter ego...He made me sell two puts in UBS CARA100 for 3.10...Jan 45.00

Letem put it to me...As Bill Likes to say...

I had to offset my WAY TOO LARGE SHORT POSITION at this moment..

NOT.V- took another hour to fill- added at 4.60...

bg- too bad..thought maybe you'd lost it and bought CFC (in which case i'd be congratulating you)- which REALLY reminds me of Vegas..

Can someone post me Bill's email address..

-thanks

2nd,
Right behind you on QID.
Added DXD, shorted GDX.

2nd

Ok.... I am starting to understand this rhythm thing. My problem is the fear of selling too early. It seems like everytime I sell there is an addtional +5000ticks yet on the upside. But I guess with time I will get better at it.

You and Craig have been a big help. I hope you keep posting your ideas and trading philosophy, because I would venture you two are helping a lot more people than just me.

billcara@mac.com

isaiah- not sure i'd be loading up on SSO...once momentum picks up on the downside, no one's going to want to get in the way...if we sell off hard, asia will also...how long has it been since we've had a good sell-off->why not hang onto your QID/DUG rather than play against yourself?

2nd

Never bought into SSO...

HStill holding QID

Sold DUG earlier for nice profit

Now I am just watching..

2nd

Never bought into SSO...

HStill holding QID

Sold DUG earlier for nice profit

Now I am just watching..

If you didn't have a chance last week, NOT is at CAD 4.35.

Going to the Mandaley Bay Las Vegas for the rest of the week. The dog; Camp Bow Wow. Of course, my laptop, wireless by Verizon. I have to be ready for KRY to rally "at any moment".

David, using the Clinton-era CPI before it was modified to the current geometric formula, the US gov. has failed to adjust social security expenses by about $200B. Can the people sue the government?

On the topic of inflation, the next annual CPI report that will be published on December 14 will include the month of November 2007. At the same time it will remove November 2006 which showed a 0.0 inflation rate (actually rounded from a negative 0.149%). Thus, the new inflation measures to be reported in December should spike up (unless there is a major reduction in inflation reported for November 2007!). It will be a very interesting figure to watch.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

Bill:

I understand and look forward to your reply.

The RSIs I referred to were from your comments on why you like to trade Walmart in Weekly.
I am not looking for specific numbers for any particular company but rather the general RSI numbers you like before you would consider a buy.

With that I can apply it to my circimstances and do some backtesting.

TIA

Bill:

I understand and look forward to your reply.

The RSIs I referred to were from your comments on why you like to trade Walmart in Weekly.
I am not looking for specific numbers for any particular company but rather the general RSI numbers you like before you would consider a buy.

With that I can apply it to my circimstances and do some backtesting.

TIA

SIO2 Craig 2nd_ave and Bill

Thanks..Bought the NOSOF @ 4.54 US Today...

I will hold this one TILL 8.00

Nice basis BG!

2nd and Craig,

>

Hear! Hear!

GSS- taking a shot at 3.16...(you out there, sharkie?)...

2nd

shaving any more off of QID?

QID- 20% off at 41.18 (risk mgmt only, isaiah)....

2nd...

you AND I ON THE SAME PAGE TODAY...

Bougth some Jan 2.50 calls for .75..I'll take it...

stktrader-------------- i am long on kry convinced this si gonna happen ------be for mo. end. what is your estimate and whats gonna make this happen russty have a wonderful vacation in vegas.

Yes, QID/DXD took a little off.

I think we see more chances and a DOW sell signal soon now. I hate to be old fashioned but...

2nd and Craig,

Isiah64v4 writes:

>

Hear! Hear!

I just bought 2 Jan puts on Rimm and two Jan Calls on APPL. So either way it goes I'm good. It would be even better if APPL blows out Xmas sales and breaks into RIMM's territory. Also picked up 5 March C calls. Couldn't resist. Hopefully they'll play out in time.

Rob.

Sold my SKF and covered my LEN and CTX shorts. Went 100% cash.

Why? Because my small account was up over 50% pretax year to date. I'm giddily nervous and since I will be out of town and unable to make trades next week I just feel better with the market swinging so much.

It just seemed like a good time to take a 'timeout' from the market. I'll be seeing my tax lady in early December it appears.

Well, 2nd and Craig, that last post had a whole section missing.

Isiah64v4 noted that you have helped so many on this board. (Isiah's comment didn't copy.)

To which I said: Hear! Hear!

DANGER SIGNAL APPROACHING? A Dow close below 12,845 would be a primary bear market signal according to Dow Theorist Richard Russell. He also has a proprietary indicator called the PTI which I would bet will have turned to zero or possibly negative after today's close. He opined that if the signal is given one should become very defensive with only select gold stocks and perhaps some oil stocks,gold and cash.

Panicky carry traders probably were big sellers today as the Yen traded to under 110. Will there be intervention by the BOJ to support the dollar?
We wait and watch.

If the HB&B has the ammo, they will perhaps attempt to mount another rally here and set up another profit taking opportunity for late 07/early 08. Plus primary voting is coming soon so a weak stock market is not desirable. A big wall of worry is present. Can they pull it off?
Paulson was blowing his horn today all the way from Ghana.

Many big traders are probably already out in the Hamptons or off to the Carribean for Thanksgiving so this week will be interesting with declining volume and probably higher volitility. Again we wait and watch.

russty,
Only the Vens know. When it happens, it happens. No estimate. All of the talk is worthless. agora.com is a good site to discuss KRY. The stock price is dropping on lack of interest. The fundamentals/technicals mean nothing. It is all about the permit.

"I hate to be old fashioned..."

craig- no one ever went broke being old fashioned...it's the new paradigms that do that ;)
nice run today, congrats, also to BG and isaiah...

g034 - thanks for your TA indicator thoughts (11:15).

2nd, Craig, Thanks also for the ongoing ebb and flow of your trading ideas

BG-also happy to leave a little money on the table with the same UBS puts today.

Thanks... each trading day has been getting better for me. More in knowledge and in profits. Not record breaking profits mind you, but profits.

:-)

See everyone tomorrow.....

russty1 - KRY

FYI, Venezuela kind of shuts down between 12/15 and 1/15 for the holidays. So, I'd bet if KRY doesn't get its permit by 12/15, there'll be a one month lull.

Also, look at GRZ, which jumped 50% when it got its environmental permit, but has since "closed the gap" and lost momentum. Personally, I think KRY would have no better reaction, perhaps worse, as Chavez' reputation as a reliable business partner has slid.

BTW, Chavez DID have a real reason to be upset with the Spanish, although it got NO coverage in mainstream media. RIGHT after the coup attempt (widely considered to have had CIA involvement) the Spanish ambassador appeared in public with the coup leaders. Chavez (understandably) took this to imply Spanish approval of (if not involvement in) the coup.

And, don't forget, Chavez has handily won every election he has run in. I've heard no serious allegations of voting fraud, nor of political prisoners during his regimme.

If junior miners succeed in VZ, I think it will be a long slow rise in stock prices as they not only get permits but move toward financings and profitable production without major political setbacks.

(no guarantees, just educated guesses.)

many thanks to all of you here and happy Thanksgiving - dont post much but Bill and all you regulars are really appreciated!

Google searches on Cara site: How to sort by date?

This query will probably get buried but if any techies can steer me in the right direction it'd be appreciated.

On the main home page Bill has a google search box. Is there any way to search and get the results to be displayed chronologically?

Someone within the past month posted a decent link to some shipping industry site but i can't remember which day it was. Recent blog postings have exploded..... another indicator? :-) -- and trying to wade through all posts to find the tinyurl link is a challenge.

Any helps with how to set up the basic google search terms would be appreciated. I know the feature can be done when viewing news and results can be listed by date.

2nd_ave

“i'd be inclined to sell SKF if i had any…WFC is a very well-managed company, if you're looking for bargains in the financial sector.” 11:02 AM.

Excellent timing, and thanks!!

r. saunders: my suggestion would be to go to the google.com page and do an advanced search...there will be all the options you need like narrowing to just this site, by date, and keywords.

r. saunders...
As far as I know, Google can limit the search to recent results, but not sort by date. But at least it limits your results.

Try this, go directly to www.google.com
enter this as your search (kry is the term you are looking for)
site:www.billcara.com kry
and click search, then click advanced search next to the button
You can select Date: withing the last Month, 2 months etc.

r. saunders

www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.asp

FMD: I own some of this at $37--Today it had unusually strong action (closed up 5.66%) on heavy volume (2.7 x 90 day, 2.25x 10day). I've not seen any news. RTK which I own received a take out offer--though the news release seemed a bit odd--and even if it were a straightforward offer, that means little these days. I'm holding SMN and DUG. I also have a fistful of puts on BNI (Jan 80). But, I'm neither heavily long or heavily short. Hope this market has been kind to you.

Gemmastar/RobBoss/jiggstoo- thank you for your kind words...

HPQ hasn't moved much after hours so far. Looks like they must have posted good results but not spectacular. I still feel like today was a set-up for a Christmas rally before we have another downleg to take us below 1420 on S&P and below 2580 on Nasdaq. And who know how far down on the Dow, somewhere below 12,850.

I wish I got in on some of the SKF and QID day trading you guys are doing but I'm not good enough with following intra-day trends yet. Hopefully someday, though, as I keep learning.

Rob.

Leisa:

FMD: Maybe they will be bought by SallieMae for their management expertise. :)

Incidentally, I think you mentioned recently that you were dabbling in pivot trading. How's that going?

Also, NHWK might should be back on your radar. I think the chart is (slowly)working toward a set up; I look for some reaction after their industry presentation in Chicago at the end of this month.

Regards,

FMD looks to be down 2% after hours. Very strange action.
Wasn't there some recent scandal re: payola to Universities to hawk certain student loan outfits?
No position, but sure liking SKF, etc.

Playing with Korvus RSI generator today and I noticed the Google ads.

It would be a Google AdSense TOS violation for Korvus himself to say so, but take a look at the ads and if something looks interesting, have a click.

I'm not saying click everything randomly, which is ripping off advertisers. But if something looks interesting, have a click. It's for a good cause. (I'm not Korvus and he has nevr suggested this to me.)

And Korvus, without getting all spammy about it, you could work a couple of keywords into your text to help you get some better paying ads. With all those stock symbols to choose from, if some of your text said "(For example, SBUX = Starbucks)" or something like that, you would pull in some coffee targeted ads. Or some brokerage targeted ads, with the right keywords. There are resources on the web that help you spot the higher paying words.

Lastly, I was wondering if there's a way to work charts into the results? I know it's crazy talk, but what if I hovered over the ticker and a little window popped up with the day's open, high, low, close and a tiny 1 month chart. The way those ads that Bill had for about five minutes used to. Ah, it's probably way to much to ask for, and there's probably technical reasons it would be a nightmare. I'm just thinking out loud.

RE: Korvus RSI Page

I agree with MikeNYC: there is no point in having ads if no one clicks them. I suggest links to stock and newsletters. At the very least, Korvus could get clicks from helpful cynics hoping to be amused.

That should have read:
"links to stock promotions..."

Northvan, I don't know if links alone would do it. I think you have to work the keywords into the text, where it is then scanned by the Gooogle-bots. Then the ads that match the text are displayed. I don't know what they think his site is now, but it's getting lots of document management ads. I clicked on one for a free copy of Word 2003. It sounded good until they wanted my mailing address and stuff. Ah, thanks, but no thanks.

It's been a while since I was researching this heavily. But there's plenty of info out there and Korvus seems pretty bright. I would say don't go crazy and click every ad, every time. They watch for stuff like that. If he could work the keywords "gold" "silver" "stocks" into his text he would probably get ads a lot of us were interested in. A lot of company IR departments and promoters use AdWords. I've seen them on other sites.

Does Canada really need an interest rate cut? David Dodge thinks so. Or at least he says he thinks so.

These guys scare me!

http://tinyurl.com/yrqhge

RE: Korvus RSI Page and Google ads

Or better yet, easy to overlook is the button at the bottom left which allows one to donate directly to the web host server through paypal, thereby reducing or elimating Korvus's cost to keep the page up.

Since Korvus was kind enough to provide his talents in creating this page the least one can do is contribute so that Korvus does not have to pay for one to access this informaiton. After all, the time Korvus has saved us is worth much more than the few bucks each of us could send via paypal.

I would rather click the ads and have someone else pay.

But it's true, that button is very easy to overlook. I saw it there and didn't know what it was because the text is not so easy to read. It needs better placement.

When I use Korvus site for a trade that makes money, and I hope that's soon, I will be looking for that button. (Tip jar!)

Bill,
My suggestion remains: One of the two 'comment management' tools I linked to a week or two ago. I'm pretty sure they support MT.

If your team sets up a test, pilot version or something, I'd be happy to help test it.

Re FMD: The other thing that could have happened....Hedge Fund short the stock may have gotten a margin call.

MikeNYC, Re. Dodge. GS in action ahead of schedule.

What are the features of the comment management tool? What kind of filtering can it do?

WSJ: China Freezes Lending to Curb Investing Frenzy
http://tinyurl.com/yqohq7

Bill,

Are you saying gold has bottomed now and now is the time to get back in? Thanks.

I hope everyone had a good day. I had a blast, but want to give thanks where they are due.

First I have to thank Bill, 1. for the blog and the community, and 2. for the daily commentary which usually sets the stage for me and makes me aware of issues I may not have seen, analysis I'm not aware of, or opportunities I couldn't/wouldn't have known...like NOT.
Bill helped me a lot today. I knew we were going down, he put it in perspective and confirmed it. Thank you Bill.

When I 'arrived' here at the Cara Community as a newcomer back in January, I didn't know anyone. I was down 10% on my trading acct, the greater fool. I read. I watched. I listened. I learned. I got into precious metals! LOL.

There was one person that consistently blew my mind, running into flaming buildings, buying when I would have previously been panicking, selling when I was greedy, and sharing all of his trades along the way. I followed his trades. I learned a lot from 2nd Avenue, and I can't thank him (and Mrs. 2nd Ave.) enough for the education, the help, the friendship and daily give and take of information,strategies and trades we share here. I look forward to it every day.

I also want to thank everyone in the Cara Community. I only know most of you by a screen name but feel like we're all longtime friends. I've learned something from nearly everyone here, sharkie too wherever he's reading this! If we all ever get together in one place it's going to be a heck of a party!

Thanks everyone.

Mike of the Big Apple [MikeNYC]

Next time you need to supply

name/address/phone#/SS#/Birth Date/mother's maiden name/credit card/etc...

try this Fake Name generator

http://www.fakenamegenerator.com/

I usually then give a working yahoo address to receive what free thing I was applying for.

S Korea and Taiwan gapping down >2.5%...that's after gapping down >2% last friday (no recovery at the close friday or on monday)->no mistaking the trend now...nikkei opens below the 52-wk low...

Bill

Glad to hear the Cara website team is coming together.

With respect to ideas / requests / suggestions, is there a way you could create a separate page where we could post these ideas. By default they would be grouped and much easier for everyone to read and add comments. Also I find it an important part of the brainstorming process to hear what others are suggesting or have concerns about, just helps to get our collective brains thinking outside the box.

Perhaps a separate blog page (like for the book review) and a reminder link to it at the end of your daily intro page.

Would like to help the team in whatever way I can, even if it is just to beta test the new site prior to launch.

Bill it's starting to get cold up here in Canada and you must be counting the days for your return down south. I pulled my racing sailboat, (Shark 24), out of the water last weekend and put her to bed for the winter, kinda sad.

a few junior mining/exploration daily rsi-7s either approaching or below 30: UXG, GSS, NOT...

I wonder if the big drop might be coming this week. Sentiment seems as bad as it has been. Recession talk is everywhere. The yield on the 10 year treasury has dropped from 4.32 last Wednesday to 4.07 today. That's a huge drop in 4 trading days, mirroring the drop in stocks. Maybe the Santa Claus rally is toast. Good luck tomorrow everyone.

Rob.

Bill
Thanks fabulous follow up to WHY Resources.

g034
Excellent technical thoughts on gold...I always find the thought process the most important..this is how we learn
I believe that is what Bill is trying to teach , the thought process....
Thanks.

UXG

will be the cause of death listed on my
"Death Certificate"

craig- thanks...those virtual chats over morning coffee work out well for me too ;)

Looking at all that red today put me to sleep an hour before the end of the trading day. When I woke up an hour and a half later I was the proud owner of a new position in Noront (4.56) and some more Fancamp (1.71) and MacDonald (.76).

"UXG...will be the cause of death listed on my
Death Certificate..."

isaiah- no, man...when gold hits 4 figures and mcewen finds his vein, it will be the first three letters on your (new) license plate ;)

"UXG...will be the cause of death listed on my
Death Certificate..."

isaiah- no, man...when gold hits 4 figures and mcewen finds his vein, it will be the first three letters on your (new) license plate ;)

Good one 2nd.

DENVER, COLORADO--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 19, 2007 -- US GOLD CORPORATION (Toronto:UXG.TO - News)(AMEX:UXG - News) today announced that Ann Carpenter has stepped down as President, Chief Operating Officer and Director of the Company.

Some great excerpts from Ron Paul about how the creation of credit and manipulation of fiat currency is not what true capitalists want:

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

SiO2,
I was just about to post the same Press Release from UXG. They certainly didn't waste any words. Didn't even thank her for past service.

Si02,
Here's a post from downloadsquad.com about two blog comment tools.

I didn't dig too far into it. But one thing I learned on re-read of the blog post about it is that a user can use it themselves, and get some good out of it. (It sure would have helped me re-find the info - searching Bill's site with Google was not to useful.) But webmasters can also install it server side to give features to all users.

You guys working on improving the show here may dig in a little deeper to see if it makes sense. If it helps us search blog comments, or thread them, or even block or highlight certain commenters for our own use, that would be cool.

[downloadsquad.com]
http://tinyurl.com/2uneoc

re: google searching question posted earlier. Thanks for the help.

Bill - as always, the amount of useful info. blows me away & appreciated you mentioning upcoming tech. plans for the blog.

TimG/bwl - the advanced search as well as the site:www.billcara.com thingy assisted. As you noted, dates can't seem to be sorted but it still worked. As noted before bwl, the RSI gadget is extremely helpful too!

RobBoss - BDI backgrounder link was good & definitely some parabolic nosebleed potential....

Thanks for the replies.

Bill & Manx928,

Very interesting information on WHY and the Magnesium. I suspect the Nickel grades were too low to make a robust project by itself and they were looking for other opportunities.

As Manx928 says, Mg is very abundant in its various forms. It will be very interesting to see if they can make it work. I assume a lot will hinge on the metallurgy. The ease or difficulty of leaching and then separating of the various components will be the key. The testwork will dictate the complexity of processing and also the amount of energy required for the process. So I agree with your analyst that they key could be to watch closely for signs of successful metallurgy.

This will be one of those stocks that is hard to judge because it will not be like any others that we can compare with. We will be relying on information from the company itself to make our judgements and this could be dangerous if they have an optimistic promoter.

On the other hand it may need an optimistic promoter to push through any barriers that may come up.

This reminds me a bit of Andrew Forrest from Australia who started Anaconda Nickel and built a very complex lateritic nickel mine in the middle of outback Australia when eveyone said it could not be done. Glencore owned 40%. Well it struggled but Ni price went up at the right time and it survived commissioning problems and is now a cash cow.

In about 2002 Andrew Forrest left the company and it changed its name to Minara.

Since then Andrew started up his own iron ore company and took on Rio Tinto in the courts to gain access to their railway line which was key to his company's deposit being a success.

See below where Andrew made a paper profit of $ 1 billion in one day last week and is now Australia's 2nd richest person behind James Packer.

http://tinyurl.com/24l5fm

So this is a long way of saying that there are some risks but sometimes these risks pay off handsomely.

Hello all Cara community. I read an interesting article at Forbes regarding "commercial banks in China to freeze lending " through the end of the year. Although I have no direct exposure to Chinese stocks, this may be another shoe to drop. While this might not hurt the FXI as that is HK shares vs. mainland. But what do I know.
Peace from North Puget Sound
Gray

G034,

Thanks for your comments earlier. I have missed your commentary over the last few months.

Not sure if you were absent for a while or whether I was just missing your posts because I don't get to read the blog every day.

Breaking News: Chrysler Loan Sale Likely Postponed

The $4 billion sale of loans connected to Cerberus Capital’s August purchase of Chrysler that was to take place this week will likely be postponed, a person briefed on the matter tells Deal Journal. Orders for the paper were due today, and so far, demand has been sluggish. (I bet they were sluggish!) (The underwriters are J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns.)

WSJ (may need subscription)

http://tinyurl.com/2xkve2

Cerebus has another pending deal to buy one of H&R Block’s units (sub-prime) for $800 million.

Seamus,

You must have intercepted my keyboard! The other day I posted an alert to watch HRB. (disclosure I have Jan puts).

HRB is in trouble! Here is a tax prep service company who tried to get cute and diversify into the lending and subprime mess.

They have failed to close the sale of Option One, their subprime division, to Cerberus since early this yr. Their CFO resigned abruptly, auditor change, and board of director Jerry D. Choate resigns due to health reasons. Let's not forget Moody's downgraded their senior debt and short-term ratings.

Now Cerberus is in their own trouble. Walking away from taking over ML Capital earlier this yr, twice on United rentals, plagued by GMAC baggage, and prob not going to buy HRB's Option One.

I smell smoke my friend. and if Mr Choate resigned for health reasons, then he should also be leaving the boards of other companies that he currently serves under like AMGN http://tinyurl.com/2le6tt, and Valero Energy, http://tinyurl.com/3an4ef. but currently no such news from those companies.

HRB reports earning December 6th. My opinion, deducted from the above research, concludes they could be the next CFC, ETFC, IMB etc. I am trading where my mouth is.

Look at that. Gold 15 bucks back up in 7 hours on market chatter that the Fed will cut again.

Next it will drop 10 bucks when Bernanke talks down the chance of a cut. These are the days when buying and selling the GLD every 10-15 bucks or so, back and forth, can work very well. Until it doesn't, of course. These explosive moves are tough.

Anyone think we just saw a bottom yet, or do you think we'll flop back down on the next baseless rumor?

MikeNYC:

I am not trading gold, so I might have a different perspective. Nonetheless, trying to call a bottom for gold in this market environment would turn me into a spastic marionette.

Regarding the miners, the ones I am interested in are sitting somewhere between their 50 day and 10 day EMAs and below a 20 period price channel midpoint. So I monitor about 5 miners for a 10 day cross over that midpoint.

From Colin Twiggs report in my email this AM: "Gold broke through the rising (green) trendline, warning of a secondary correction. Penetration of short-term support at $775 would confirm the signal. The euro remains bullish against the dollar and we can expect gold to recover and follow this in the medium-term.
The primary up-trend is strong, and the long-term target of $900 [725+(725-550)] remains. A secondary correction is likely to find support at the 2006 high of $730/$725."

Add to that this AM's headline from Bloomberg: USD weakens in the face of housing #'s.

Back on the gold teeter-totter, up...down...up...

Gotta short Freddie and Fannie today.

I think the Q's go on HPQ and friends (appl/goog/rimm)giving us another QID entry at some point.

Will be watching financials on bank downgrades.

Good luck!

The comment above about "Abby Joseph Cohen" calling tops is 100% true. Every time CNBC trots her ever-aging, craggy, masculine mug out you better start to sell. No kidding. How she keeps her job is beyond me. Of course, Jim Cramer gets to keep his job, too, so what do I know. Love your site, by the way!