Garmin, Cisco and HP are pulling futures higher this morning.

http://tinyurl.com/2gyswa
http://tinyurl.com/2hnjcg

For the moment, they seem to be offsetting the bad news from Starbucks and Kohl's.

FDX lowers guidance, stock breaking pre-market. Major breakdown under 97. Cannot be a good sign for the economy.

I am new to trading and to this board. I am having trouble initiating trades..... The fear factor. Any advice? What kinds of signals do you all use to help you decide to initiate a trade? I would like to get some different views.
Thanks so much.
Bill G

Another similar question. What kinds of rules of trading do some of you use as far as entering and exiting trades?

"I clearly cannot do more than the work of ten men."

You must mean 'for long', as you *have* been doing the work of ten men for some time now.

I can't Thank You enough Bill.

Optionoracle, Fedex is keeping Amazon from participating in pre-market rally.

Other news of note this morning is report that both TIC and industrial production came in below estimates. Bad news for economy or market.

This might turn into a very volatile day.

Krishna, my advice is to read this blog daily and pick up Dr. Alexander Elder's books on trading. Both Bill and Elder have an excellent approach to sound money management.

Your fear of losing money is quite common. The key is never risk more money in a single trade than you can afford to lose. In other words, keep your bets as small as possible as you develop confidence in your ability to find good trades.

Consider it done, Bill.

positive futures not showing much conviction...can't call it a head fake yet
agree with n2->could be volatile...may end up selling off hard...

FXP- taking 1/2 off at 81 and change...
Noront- looking to add...

I'm new to buying physical gold and silver and would like to glean some information from those that have done it for awhile. What is an acceptable amount over spot to pay for a coin approximately? Why is there a difference in price for different coins of the same size? For example, a 1 oz. Eagle cost more than a 1oz. Maple Leaf. TIA.

2nd, I've been trading the indexes lately and I went flat at the open. I'm watching the sto on the hourly NDX and SPX to cycle back up to overbought as this has been the best place to enter a trade on the QID and SDS, respectively.

Of course, if this early rally is just a head fake I'm gonna be outta luck.

Which of Alexander Elders books do you recommend?
Thanks

No gas in the tank, look at XLK/XLF tech anf financials....up a hair but no ooomph.

I think you guys are right.

Good advice N2son.

Learn to read charts. A necessary skill.

krishnam: "Come into My Trading Room," by Elder is a great place to begin. There is a workbook that goes with it, too.

number2son.
Where do you watch the hourly sto at.. Yahoo?
Thanks

Bill, I'm approaching the point of utter confusion. On the one hand, you seem to have a strong opinion that the long-term gold bull is lining up, but on the other hand you have always rather clearly indicated that gold does not really move counter-cyclically (meaning it needs a bull market to give outsize gains).

If we are in the beginning throes of the bear here in the US, then when can we realistically expect gold to run in earnest (to $1,000/oz)?

I'm not trying to make you into a handi-capper or market timer, but if this long running bull market is finally ready for cow tipping, then how can we get too excited about gold's near term future prospects?

From what I read and parsed here - it can't be both...can it?

I heard a snippet on NPR news this morning that this year's Thanksgiving dinner will cost on average 11% more than last year's. Higher cost is attributed to Turkey prices and dairy prices which ultimately lead back to high oil/gas prices.

What good is the CPI? Food, transportation, and rent are the major expenses for most. The first two are all but factored out. What about rent, is that factored in the CPI?

moneygenie- follow through with part 2 of your plan?

Most coin shops it's from $10 to $20 over spot.

You are buying bullion coins, not collectibles, so you want a shop that sells on spot and not a huge differentiation between coins.

My main dealer charges the same for bullion coins, but my other dealer doesn't, so I buy from the first and sell to the second as I can get more for Eagles both silver and gold than spot from him and his buy price is $20 over spot and the other is $10.

It pays to call around. Gold dealers are a little creepy and suspicious, don't let it throw you. They have a lot on the line.

DUG- pulling back to a nice entry point...

Craig, if you mean you can get gold American Eagles for $10 over spot, I definitely would like to know your dealer. The best I know is $25 over spot.

The Bear brings FED cuts to keep the mkt breathing, FED cuts lower USD, lower USD makes gold do it's thing.

In the meantime USD is strengthening *ST*, oil pulling back, gold weakening.

Weak banks keeps fed in rescue mode *LT*. That's bullish for gold, oil, bearish for USD.

Krishna, I use both stockcharts and Schwab streetsmart pro.

As all can see, selling QID at the open was a mistake.

Well that was not much of a rally. How can the S&P not close below 1450 today? I'll bet the morning rally was mainly people buying stock that will be called away or that will be put to other people. And did you check out the sloshing report. 14 billion less sloshing around today. I think I deserve some slosh money. I could buy yen and then put it in an Aussie or New Zealand money market and clean up.

Rob.

isaiah- time to clean your gun and pick your targets->i'm planning to scale out of SKF and QID into strength...and setting re-entry points along the way...if it's as volatile as n2 thinks, you could be doing both today...good luck...

ETFC 8 puts expire today, just wondering if I should wait till the last minute. Seems to be dying nicely today.

Yes, last time I bought 5 eagles for $682 ea. and spot was $672 at the time. That will give you an idea when I last bought physical. I bought some maples for the same type of deal earlier.

The dealer that pays best and charges most over gold spot on buys cuts me deals on silver eagles, selling them to me the same as bullion coins which is $1 over spot, so I make a little there too as silver eagles run quite a bit higher than spot.

SiO2 - Lots of things could go wrong at the last minute; for example, you could lose your connectivity. Were I you, I'd watch carefully, pick my spot, ring the register, and say "thank you very much!".

Clint Eastwood: “Well, punk, do you feel lucky”

Noticed a CFC corporate bond this a.m. rated (Moody’s) Baa3 on review for possible downgrade, matures 12/19/2007, yield to maturity 15.681. 250K available, minimum 1K.

Not a recommendation.

I have started making some of the improvements that Sio2 and TimG have suggested to the Google RSI Gadget. The gadget can be added to your Google Finance or iGoogle page using this link:
http://tinyurl.com/2w3sxo

Inserting this code into the html of a page will add the gadget to any webpage. (I am gonna make it multiline so that it doesn't mess up the blog for the day, but it all belongs together on one line :)

Thank you for you comments and suggestions, they are appreciated.

2nd

T h a n k s ! For the advice [I owe U]

Noront- added at 4.49..
FXP- closing balance of position at 83 and change..
DUG- adding at 43.88..

QID- taking 20% off at 41.55...

Bill
Thanks for example of options yesterday and I guarantee I will be owning your book. I asked because it seems would be a good way to enter the banks when we see some capitulation, but trend definitley down for time being. Interesting to note Buffett has increased stakes in US bancorp and Wells Fargo

Well, the code didn't post, but this is the page you can go to to set the height and width, then get the code to add to a page. The width should be 320, and 300 as the height works well if you are showing 10 previous values.
http://tinyurl.com/2wf38t

BIll from your April24,2007 report"The steelworkers tell me they expect all moves to be finalized by year’s end, including some sort of working relationship between Stelco and Dofasco. They say there is a continuing very strong rumour of up to 2500 jobs lost at Dofasco "

THIS WEEK The Canadian Press

November 15, 2007 at 2:52 PM EST

HAMILTON — The United Steelworkers union says an undetermined number of employees have been laid off at steel maker Dofasco Inc., where the union is trying to be certified as a bargaining agent.

“We don't know how many are affected,” Wayne Fraser, the union's Ontario/Atlantic director, said in a phone interview.

“We heard that people were escorted out of the plant this week. They were handed white envelopes and told to clean out their lockers. People are terrified about what's going on.”

Earlier Thursday, the union said its organizing campaign among employees of the ArcelorMittal subsidiary had recently moved into a more intense phase.

Bill what are you hearing?

Cara 100 U/D Update:

(5) lowered price targets on SBUX by MWR,UBS,RBC,Friedman Billings and CIBC.

SBUX being pounded down nearly 7%.

SKF- closing 1/2 at 98 and change...looking at WM from the long side...

2nd

why are you sell SKF? It appears to be in a upwards trend

2ND,

I 'm not in again. You doing better than me today for sure. I got to find that hypnosis cd/tape by hook or by crook.LOL

So, the thing is, that I am not comfortable holding FXP overnight becasue the Asian market time lag/ meaning what we see today is yesterdays play. Do you see it that way??

Also, am looking for an entry on TWM for day trade if I can. Not much else except KGC and GFI Puts.

Thanks much.

moneygenie

I been watching TWM also...... what's your feel for a good enttry point

Taking some profits on QID/SKF.

Will reload if we get a push higher.

New GLD/GDX shorts added, sitting pretty.

Anyone bottom fishing SBUX? Seamus, did they get put to you at your price?
Maybe a hair early but it's a mistake to bet against Howard.

2nd

Sold SKF between 98.35 to 98.53. Did well...

Owe it to you and Craig...Thanks again

Taking some profits on QID/SKF.

Will reload if we get a push higher.

New GLD/GDX shorts added, sitting pretty.

Anyone bottom fishing SBUX? Seamus, did they get put to you at your price?
Maybe a hair early but it's a mistake to bet against Howard.

Craig

Is there an ETF that will short GLD/GDX?

I hate when that happens. Curse you typekey!

gold and silver spot prices trading in a pretty wide range this morning. looking at the kitco charts is like looking at an richter scale tape during an earthquake.

Nope, you have to actually short them.

Friedman Billings just dropped their coverage of twelve major banks.

Guess they don't want to look stupid when they all tank?

Good job Isaiah!

That's what thought...

analyst have a wide range of opinions on sbux. most downgrade. received this outperform alert this morning, though...

SBUX has been reiterated by RBC Capital Mkts as a outperform at 26.0.

We may have seen all the USD weakness we'll see until January, which may mean the worst is priced into SBUX. Maybe not...

However, when was the last time SBUX saw a $21 handle?

QID- adding back 10% at 41.06..

Hozions has a gold bear etf - HGD in toronto.

See http://www.hbpetfs.com/hgd.asp for details.

Isaiah64v4 - A double inverse gold ETF is traded on the Toronto exchange: Ticker HGD

"The HBP Gold Bear + ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees, expenses, distributions, brokerage commissions and other transaction costs, that endeavour to correspond to two times (200%) the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index."

http://www.hbpetfs.com/hgd.asp

2nd,
Right behind you, scaling in....

isaiah- "sell SKF? It appears to be in a upwards trend" that's exactly when i sell...agree that i can lose much of a move that way, but buying weakness/selling strength usually a safe(r) way to make a little money...

Does anyone know of a copper etf?

Rob.

Isaiah64v4,

i'M LOOKING FOR $LOW 69.bUT IT DEPNDS ON TIME OF DAY AND WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON ELSEWHERE ON THE TAPE. NOT DEFINITE. AM WATCHING THATS ALL FOR NOW.

Craig

No, SBUX has not been put to me. I'm waiting though. Lots of negativity for a int'l company making money. Sure, there's the dollar and dairy prices (agriculture), but as you know, I'm well aware of those for the last 2 years here.

Doesn't make sense for the buyer of the puts yet until it's a little lower unless they just want out.

It would cost Isaiah $20 in and $20 out to trade the CDN etf. Not a viable option for a live trade IMO.

It's there but he needs to have IBKR or Fidelity to have a shot.

Let me know what you're doing RE SBUX Seamus.

I have a junk order in but I doubt it comes to me at my fantasy price. Almost bloody enough...

Finger Lakes,

I don't know of a copper ETF but if you're bullish on copper, check out PCU. It pays a killer divy too.

Regards

OldGoat / moneygenie / 2nd

Thanks guys for the response

Adding to GDX short.

Bill, since some of your readers look for fixed income, thought I’d post this FWIW.

Not a recommendation, just observation (beware of HB&B solicitations)

Noticed over the last month or so there have been a number of hybrid preferred securities offered by DB, BAC, FITB, MER, MS, GS etc., etc. (all the usual suspects!) paying quarterly interest 7-8% area. One catch is a provision which allows issuer to defer payments up to 10 years and let payments accumulate. You’ll have to pay taxes each year on the deferred even though you didn’t receive payments. Another thing, I think income is treated like interest instead of dividends. Issue price is $25 and they list on the exchanges.

IMO, stay clear of these offers as within weeks if not sooner, (especially in this climate) they trade 2-3-4, maybe 5 points lower where your ROI is much better if you take the plunge. The old adage: “Wait for it to come to you.” If you are willing to risk it.

Expect the possibility that one or more will have big trouble (bankruptcy?), but I don’t think all of these institutions will go under, but do your own DD.

2nd / Craig

Are you guys banking on a sell off at the end of the day?

You don't plan to carry these over the weekend do you?

Is there an ETF that shorts gold or do you need to short sell GDX? Thanks

Finger Lakes -

You need to go to London for now.
http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/etfs_copper.asp

JML

QID- another 10% at 40.63...

I'm holding the QID. This is a longer term bear trade. I've been converted to a glass half empty kind of guy.

Now I'm buying strength and selling weakness.
Weird.

See the above posts Adam. If you have IKBR/Fidelity or are Canadian there is a double inverse ETF on the Toronto exchange.

Closed out my QID's and SPY Dec Call hedges. Think the downside is down for now.

Also, energy stocks look good here. Oil hanging in there well, but the stocks have taken a big hit. Think that they will outperform in a bounce.

I have a rather mundane request. Do any Canadians here have a spreadsheet they are willing to share which they use to calculate trading gains and losses for the tax man?

AdamG,
Just FYI/disclosure: I'm actually short the GDX, not an ETF and definitely not a dbl inverse for gold. Enough volatility for the average person at one to one.

2nd,
Watch the comp here, it looks to be ready to break out intraday...

Craig...come again

comp <---?

Any thoughts on this quick jump up in the markets? Computer driven maybe?

On your chart/screen/list the comp is the nasd.
The symbol is $COMP.Q

This will allow you to chart the nasd index, the opposite of the dbl inverse ETF QID.

Is Barclays Bank bringing down the price of Gold through sales of its shares of IAU? Here is a link to an article that appeared in the Guardian on Nov 6, 2007 which certainly implies that Barclays is in financial difficulties sufficiently so as to receive an unusual(?) bail out from the US.
http://tinyurl.com/2963y4

It’s interesting to me that on Nov 7, the next day after at least this article appeared, Gold gapped up for a Bull Trap and then started the current and continuing drop. Coincidence? Certainly possible, but it is an easy assumption that Barclays Bank would have shares in its own Gold ETF which it might need to sell for needed funds in order to stay solvent. The following statement is from the description of the fund:

... Each trust share represents a fractional undivided beneficial interest in the trusts net assets which consist primarily of gold held by a custodian on behalf of the trust....
http://tinyurl.com/yqp6wv

Barclays can’t sell gold directly, of course, but by suddenly selling large lots of its own shares of IAU , the Fund itself might have to “lighten up” on sizable amounts of Gold assets; thus, beginning the snowball effect (along with other factors, of course). The custodian Bank is Bank of NY (member of the Fed) so the sales of actual gold would be in the US markets I think.

Interestingly, the “Hammer Down” on commodities also seems to have occurred at about that same time (and also that strange “bail out” funds from the US to Barclays).

What does it all mean? Possibly nothing ... but if true, then one possible effect of the troubles at Barclays might be the selling of their reserve of shares until some portion, if not all, of their financial difficulties disappears

No matter, it served as resistance and bounced back for now. I got more QID at 40.33

Ok, Bill. I give up - too complicated for my simpleton mind!

If the Bear has taken hold and gold doesn't move counter-cyclically, then gold is toast too. If gold and it's ilk are the last off the dance floor but the music has already stopped, what's the point?

I'll go read a book about the 1970's for demystification and darken your door no more.

I thought this was a blog where we share ideas openly and honestly - even ones that we may disagree with. Instead, it has turned into something of a cult of personality of late, filled with followers and lemmings who don't dare step out of line or question the master. Isn't it funny how that works!

Good luck and good health, Mr. Cara. I never meant any offense, but you clearly choose to take otherwise. I never presume to speak to anyone's confusion but my own...somehow though, I think I'm not alone in my confusion - after all - we're all connected, aren't we?

Jumble and Bull Hunter,

Thanks. I'm starting to think Copper is oversold and due for a bounce, unless we really bring the world into recession.

Everyone,

Only 29 of the CARA 100 are trading above their 50 day moving averages. Those may be the strongest on the next upturn or may be next for the chopping block depending on where the market wants to go.

Rob.

I can't follow all the QID trade postings here, not that I want to either. Some being opened, some scaled in others closed all at the same time by different people. What's the value here?

Fed operations yesterday seems to show that they lent some funds at 0.5%, is my interpretation correct?

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm

gecko - There's been plenty of "value" for those following 2nd's trades in recent weeks!

As long as I know it's 2nd's trades are the one's to follow...thanks

SiO2 - One of the things that could go wrong with holding ETFC puts until the last minute has now apparently gone wrong. ETFC was down 7+% at 5.03 earlier; now 5.41 and near even on the day. When you let things go to the last minute, you lose the ability to exit on your own terms and let the market make your decision for you.

2nd & Craig

They put me in the green with the SKF trade....

I follow these guys just to pick up their scraps...
:-)

SiO2 -- 2nd is still BOS as far as I'm concerned...

I took a look at a 1 minute chart of the S&P overlayed with the $/Yen. The movements, down to the one minute level, are polar opposites. This speaks to me of tremendous leverage and dependency on the carry trade. However, as long at the yen weakens, as it is doing today, the markets rally.

As Bill says, this is a day traders market. The news doesn't matter nearly as much as the $/yen.

Actually, we took QID profits this AM on strength and have been buying back in on weakness.

I bounce off of 2nd all the time, but everyone here MUST be making their own decisions. It isn't 2nd's responsibility and it could screw up his game putting more pressure on him.

It's nice of him to post his trades, but let's be careful to take responsibility for ourselves and to understand there are several approaches going on here that aren't for everyone.

I for one would love to hear some ideas for fixed income/reliable dividend payers to buy on a really good correction.

SiO2,

I would interpret those numbers as: the interbank overnight rate dropped to .5% at one point. My understanding is that the fed only lends from the discount window using the discount rate.

Don't take this interpretation as gospel, though.

Quoting Craig - "...everyone here MUST be making their own decisions. It isn't 2nd's responsibility
...
It's nice of him to post his trades, but let's be careful to take responsibility for ourselves ..."

Well said! I too appreciate Craig and 2nd's ideas. I've benefited from learning about these products that are mentioned in their trades.

Lots to learn on Bill's blog from people and his comments and resources. Apply them to your situation and make your own decisions, because you are ultimately responsible.

Many thanks to Bill and the community.

"I for one would love to hear some ideas for fixed income/reliable dividend payers to buy on a really good correction."

Craig,

You might want to look into concession operator - CVP. Also telecoms - OTT, FRP, CNSL. Oil & Gas Partnership - LGCY

I've been in and out of all these names, collecting nice divys while waiting for the price to rise.

Regards

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The slump in global credit markets may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a ``substantial recession'' in the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

http://tinyurl.com/34untw

Krishna - re Alex Elder's books:

I think Come Into My Trading Room is the key book, and I wouldn't bother with the work book. I'd just read CMITR very thoroughly, a couple of times.

Entries and Exits is good down the road, because it walks you through individual trades by 15 traders: some pros, some just plain folks.

Alex offers monthly webinars, which are fun but costly. I also attended his traders' camp. Also great fun and hugely motivating, but costly. He's a great guy, and very entertaining. His site: elder.com

MOST of what you absolutely need, though, is in that main book: a cold hard dose of realism and discipline! His most powerful contribution is the importance of position sizing and money management= control risk every day!

Then, of keeping good records which you can learn from. Finally, that you ultimately need to evolve into your own trading style, which suits your personality. You're really trading your mind, not the markets!

You should also know, Alex puts NO emphasis upon fundamentals. He trades charts, and with just a few proven indicators. He loves "fallen angels" but hardly cares from what perch it fell ... To me, Bill's mix of fundamentals and a few proven indicators ultimately makes the most sense.

I know I am probably the most inexperienced trader here, but for the record I do hold ONLY myself responsible for all my trades like I do for all my actions in life.

And.... I am really grateful for everyone's help in this wonderful group.

Thanks Bill for coming up with this idea.

I guess I am being a little bit of a curmudgeon here.

Craig, I have some thoughts on long term diversification more so than trades. I am waiting to see how the current sea change shakes out first though. I am much more comfortable finding industry trends for the intmd and long term than I am indentifying a single stock or day trading. Just my bag.

I am looking to add to the following on any sizable pullbacks. Infrastructure (global and domestic) agricultura, Frontier Markets + China + Brazil, basic materials. I am looking at either ETF baskets or individual stocks.

In addition to a core portfolio I have positions already in gold, commodities, currency baskets, Agri ETF, and SDS as a hedge. My cash position is fairly high so I am hoping some ofm these areas fall to me at a nice long term entry point.

Excerpt from Nouriel Roubini's blog today,

"I now see the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before.

http://tinyurl.com/2zxung

Re dividend payers, if you don't mind some risk, there are a lot of really beaten up Canadian Energy trusts now which are down by 2/3rds or more and paying yields in the high teens. You can find profitable ones, but not ususally generating enough to cover their yields, which is why they are so cheap.

As far as non-commodity ones go, the best ones I own are:

In Canada:

Bell Aliant - BA.UN - 9.7% yield - Phone company for eastern Canada - not much growth potential as no cell business, but limited competition due to large investment required to compete across broad geography - valuation metrics favourable compared to US regional telco's.

IN U.S.:

Seaspan - SSW - Yield 6.0% - In shipping, but more of a financing comapny for ships. Purchase various ships and then sign long-term leases with major shipping lines to pay these off. The genius behind this is you get the 6% yield, most of the ship by the lessor and the ships generally retain their value pretty well, so at the end, you have a valueable asset which has little debt on it.

There are also a number of small insurance companies is the U.S. which have good profitablity, good yields and very little sub-prime exposure according to their SEC filings. Ones I own include SAFT and NSEC.

If you prefer large caps, Altria (MO) pays 4.2% and may have some growth their international spinout and AT&T pays 3.6% and is growing nicely.

Noront- feels like the selling may be over for now...turning green...

Geckojb,
No worries. Ideally I would be invested in these same ideas and not in day trade mode, but such is the way of the market these days for me.

Just waiting for it to resolve positive or negative. So far I'm leaning negative but with light positions and trades for now. Large cash position waiting.

Speaking of Canadian Trusts there is now an ETF for this (ENY). Dividend yield not listed.

Fedex killed today, DOW transports at 4566, well below support (4672). If this fuel finds it's way near the match of DOW 12,846, it will be a DOW theory sell signal. Black boxes would likely take over from there.

We're about 300 pts shy. Keeping a watchful eye.

If you wish to use Canadian dollars, XTR.TO is an income trust ETF that has existed for quite a while. It used to pay about 4%, not sure now.

Spoke to H&R Block IR today. Next earnings and conf call scheduled for December 6th, 7AM.

She said they would issue an official release regarding time soon.

Should be an interesting call. Bought Jan puts several days ago.

They have over $1B in sub prime exposure and are having difficulty selling to cerberus.

Looks like we're going to pin S&P 1460 today. These expiration afternoons have been very quiet the last few months and we seem to have settled into the range.

I gather from some of the posts that 2nd and Craig have been hot lately. Not to throw water on the fire but remember that "past success cannot guarantee future results."

Noront- clearing the table at 4.82...risk mgmt (probably early)...

Noront- wow, limit at 4.82 filled at 4.93...way too early...

Noront- wow, limit at 4.82 filled at 4.93...way too early...

Have any of you been watching FNM and FRE? These last two days have been a bloodbath. Someone came in today to rescue FNM has it was in meltdown at 36.86. If I'm not mistaken, FNM "guarantees" 20% of all mortgages in the US. This credit collapse is now moving into a second phase and taking on a new complextion.

Doug Noland and Prudent Bear has been on top of this "Credit Bubble" for years and said last week the GSE's will probably go bankrupt on CA housing alone.

With so many ETF's, how do you determine which one to buy? Which are the better fund families? Any financial ETF's that you recommend? Either long or short. Thanks, Adam

KRY - Tin Foil Hat Time!!
could they be intentionally slowing gold production down at their existing mine to get the attention of the higher ups in the VZ gov? If Chavez et al. see less gold rolling in (which has to be sold to VZ at a fixed price, according to an earlier post), might they want to get Las Cristinas rolling sooner? With the inflation problem, Chavez might want to have his own gold, no? What do you think? Too crazy?

SiO2

XTR.TO Trust ETF now yielding .2495 cents ie 7.72 %

chicago mark - http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=14910

read #5 - i posted this on yesterday's board too...scary stuff.

isaiah- maximum frustration->once you get used to having that happen every time, start to expect/even look forward to it...patience is widely touted, rarely exercised...

2nd,
What's your NOT quote? I'm 15 mins behind...

I received a mkt letter sell alert on FNM.

Underpinned NOT at 4.90.

Canadian???

Wow..I am just having fun trying to follow 2nd craig and the rest in and out of trades today...

I may just sit here all day and hit my refresh key..

This has been so much fun on such a volitle day :)

Looks to me who ever was buying around 2pm all these days is now selling...

Yes Canadian$

NOT.V- 4.88/4.90 @ 215 pm ET

Stopped out of NOT.

And you closed it 2nd?

Thanks rob d for the link.

Last week our Fed Chairman suggested the GSE's increase their lending support protection limit to $1 mil from the current $417,000. What a terrible idea!! And this from the supposed "man in charge". You can really now see the sweat and true desperation. The tea leaves are suggesting this is going to be uglier than anything in many decades.

basketguy

I'm trying to follow these guys.... only advantage to this is a few times I bought lower than 2nd...wooow talk about trader's luck !

isaiah-

"Are you guys banking on a sell off at the end of the day?" would never use that phrase...

"You don't plan to carry these over the weekend do you?" will lighten up either way, as the daily RSI-7 on the Nasdaq big 10 are back to the lower 30s...but leaning towards a major sell-off, so keeping plenty on the table...no one hits the bottom or the top, right...try and find a rhythm you can work with...

golfer-

"past success cannot guarantee future results." that's right.

out of NOT...but not for naught ;)

Nat gas is getting some respect today. Bought some more Cyries (CYS) and Duvernay (DDV).

LOL! I'll see if my NOT order fills....

Looks like the nasd chart is on the leg down starting around 12:18 est. Sure would be nice to come to us before the close!

I'm teetering on my PM shorts, but looks like they're trying...

Rolled over half of the Nov ETFC puts to Dec 6's. Not selling NOT, and not selling UNG either.

NOT-> 5.10...within 24h of bill's post...

2nd / Craig

You fellows still holding DUG?

Craig FWIW, SBUX--took a small position for the IRA (puts I sold are in the regular account)@ 22.22.

Expect volatility to continue and TH's on Financial entertainment to bad mouth. Keeping a leash on it.

Missed a move on TECUA which fits profile of a company Don COXE said might do well over the next couple of years.

Biggest Screw-up Award Nomination-

I got a limit buy fill yesterday on NOT @ 4.56. When I noticed the fill occurred, I found I had only specified 100 shares instead of the 1000 I wanted.

Today NOT has been up over 9% from my fill prices.

:(

craig- Dow's down, SPY's down, how far behind can the Naz be?

I'm a little embarassed....the easiest and most profitable trade of the day so far? SBUX. Go figure.

Wish I was more ambitious/less ambiguous on positon size, it would have been an even better day.

Now if NOT clears at the present 4.99 I'm in luck.

2nd / Craig

You fellows still holding DUG?

Still holding full positions in MacDonald (BMK), Fancamp (FNC) and Freewest (FWR). Hope they spike on NOT's tail.

The good 'ol boys ran the stops on Noront all the way to 4.17 and bought it back above $5. Wow. Glad I got aboard that train yesterday. The selloff certainly seemed forced as Bill suggested.

financials are going down...

DUG- still holding (and added to it earlier)...

schwab/streetsmartpro users -

Schwab Canadian desk told me today they are testing real-time quotes and charts on TSX, and TSX.V, and hope to have them available by year's end. I think that means it will actually be working sometime in Q-1 '08.

FYI, you can now trade Canadian junior miners from the schwab.com site, although they have to tell you the symbol to use, and give you a quote by phone. Once filled, the position appears on streetsmartpro, but prices do not refresh during the day.

Out of NOT at 5.08 USD.

Thank You Bill!

Just received a phamphlet in the mail from Hong Kong listing the latest from ISI publications.

Guess what book is listed among the "How to start and grow a successful hedge fund" books?

Yes, "Lessons from the Trader Wizard" by Bill Cara, $50 U.S.

Glad I placed my order last August through Canada when the dollar was stronger (LOL).

BTW, I recently received notice publication would be delayed until December. Will be a nice holiday present to look forward to.

crystallex-----kry?--- don't wanna take a lot of all your time on this BUT!!!!! does chavez need to be around -re formal issue of permit> or can minster in charge do same. chavez more focus on OIL? ALSO FLYING AROUND in his nice jet this week. looks like the state run stores in belarus some how out of powder milk?? saw this on net. any how have a wonderful all . long on kry russty

Anyone taking bets on the close?

Do you think they'll be long the weekend?
I think not.

Seamus, I was just a couple pennies in front of you but a small position. Couldn't pass it up. Would have liked 21.75 better!

Bill,
Good read on Newmont exec. I used to live in Appleton Wis..and used that airport in Oshkosh almost 40 yrs ago. Hard to imagine the seasonal duration of extreme cold that canadian miners endure.

Back to the gold mining theme, are there associated companies that sell the equivalent of "the picks and axes" to the miners..be it electronic or heavy equipment...worthy of creating a short list? A mining service sub-sector in the making?

Wow, total number of posts are popping. Overload, unless a gunslinger. Those rascals.

Jock, Thx for the info. That’s good news. I’ve also asked Schwab about Canadian access in the past numerous times and I'm sure we're not alone. FWIW, I called yesterday for a quote on NOT and then actually placed a trade through Streetsmart pro at 4.7265.

Craig out of SBUX @ 22.98. Usually don't like to that, but still holding the puts awaiting delivery if it happens. If not, will pocket the premium.

Jasper:
"picks and axes" for miners?
Here is two Milwaukee companies for you:
BUCY
JOYG

Fred,

I may have the spreadsheets you are looking for. Send me a private E-mail: bakerw at shaw.ca

Interesting action on NOT.V today. Scaled in for 2,000 from $4.56 down to $4.26, unloaded all at $4.87. Thought it best not to look a gift horse in the mouth (net profit of 9.9% in 4 hours).

LAYN Layne Christensen provides drilling services to mineral explorers.

Craig and 2nd, can either of you talk on why you have chosen to game the NDQ and not either the R2k or SP500? It just seems that using SDS or TWM would give you some advantage over QID given the trend?

closing my XAU long from yesterday at eod today. Was merely a short term trade based on rsi divergence.

The PPT must be exhausted right now.

Out of SBUX @ 23.32...over 5.5% in a day, gotta take it. I think it comes back to us.

Looks like we will get an entry on QID instead of a sale. Alrighty then....QID at 40.03

HOW DO THEY DO IT ??? WHO IS BUYING?

moneygenie...

easy...the SHORTS are buying...

They also need to cover before the weekend...

There is a Canadian engineering company very similar to Layne Christensen, but I will have to look it up.

Here are some Water investment ideas:
http://www.investorideas.com/Water-Stocks/Stock_List.asp

There is a Canadian engineering company very similar to Layne Christensen, but I will have to look it up.

Here are some Water investment ideas:
http://www.investorideas.com/Water-Stocks/Stock_List.asp

QID- not adding here, craig, but can't get too excited about the last minute ramp in the Qs...could be totally wrong->hoping an increase in the Daily RSI-7s gets us a better set-up for more selling on monday...

isaiah- didn't sell any of it...couldn't come up with a good reason to sell any, as i would have bought into the close absent an existing condition...

enjoy the weekend...

Geckojb,
I don't know about 2nd, well actually I think I do, but the Q's have been up more than the DOW and S&P thus have farther to fall and are touting the most overdone of co's. RIMM, APPL, GOOG, etc. while the rest of the market leads lower. We have energy near highs, chip co's warning, the trannies under support with FEDEX rolling over, and the corrections on the russell and such ahead of the Q's. Like a puppy I think they have to follow.

Also sure a lot of TH's pushing tech as a panacea. Today was all about CSCO and their supposed buy back. Why would they buy back here? To provide a floor? Why? And this lead RIMM, APL, and GOOG up?

Not that shorting the other indices should be ignored! The R2000 would have been a really good short pretty much all this year. It may still be.

Yesterday was the last day for most hedge funds to get redemption notices for the end of the year. Not sure if this is related or just a coincidence, but one of the small cap insurance companies I own traded down 7% today (down 10% at one point) on 8 times average volume and the most volume in a year and a half. This would be the type of company a hedge fund would like to hold as it is very profitable and only 0.8 times book value. But forced selling is forced selling....

Also, check out the finish on the SPY (trades 15 minutes after 4:00 close), now right on 146 - the market did a good job today of shaking out the Nov. 146 Put holders when it ramped this morning and the the 145 Call holders when it fell this afternoon and likely ended a place of maximum profit for HB&B. I've held options until the last day before, but don't do that anymore as it is too hard to play.

Thanks 2nd,
I'm not that worried and not that big a position to worry. Still think there's a neg bias with financials/trans/energy/credit-credibility and....can we go wrong trading *WITH* GS calling for a recession?

2nd

Again... 2nd... thank you very much for that push today to sell my SKF.... I actually sold it near the top. Luck I know. But if you wouldn't of encouraged me I would of ended up getting piggish and lost some major profits. So thanks to you I made 4 big ones today.

I held on to my DUG [wish I would of sold some of it at one point] and added to and held my QID.

Can't wait till Monday. I've learn a lot here. Just still haven't mastered the art of knowning when to sell. Buying has become easiler... I keep hearing Bill say "let the market come to you" and he's right, it does. Several times today I held fast and it came. [Thank you Bill]

Look for you and Craig..... Monday

Have a nice relaxing weekend Isaiah!

mg- can't worry about things like that...it will go your way (maybe even pre-market monday)...there's an ebb and flow, it always comes back..

"why you have chosen to game the NDQ.." betting on more volatility/potential gains...also find rotating between FXP/EEV/EFU, DUG/SMN, and QID to work out well...

A question for the Canadians out there:

Can anyone suggest an online broker that accepts RSP accounts and offers stop-loss trading on options?

All you playing short, I would be careful in here. The market is now trading at about it's 250 day moving average where it has bottomed 7 of 8 pullbacks since the rally began. Additionally, when you look at the 2 previous market drops in 2007, they started around mid-month of 1 month and finished up around option expiration the following month.

If this is not the beginning of a true bear market, then we are at the point where things should be bottoming. Also, if we are in a standard 4 year market cycle, we should not expect a bear until 2010 and this should just be a normal mid-cycle correction. 2008 is an election year and the government will be doing whatever it can to prevent a major bear.

The third things is that stocks just seem cheap in here relative to what we know about current fundamentals.

Good luck to all and great trading this week 2nd Ave and Craig and others.

Buying Bullion

Best bets, in my opinion
1. A good local dealer - good means many things. But basically close, cheap, with minimal markup over spot, decent selection. Someone who comes to know you and will set aside stuff for you (as you become a regular) Also, and this is very critical - must have decent buy/sell spreads. Many are happy to sell but will jam it to you when you want to sell back.

2. A local coin show - these are hit and miss. If, for some reason, you wish to avoid a paper trail on bullion purchases, these are the places for you. You can also often find deals. Last year I had a guy offer me 100 oz 'loaf' bars of silver at $1200 when silver was something like 12.35. Unfortunately I was shopping on a 'handful of silver eagles' budget. Another guy had a bag of rounds "As many as you want, 12 each." Maybe it was 12.50, I forget now.

3. Finally, the kings of online bullion purchasing, www.apmex.com.

In an age of truly crappy customer service everywhere, these guys stand out time and time again. I can't say enough. It's not just me. Search the web and you will fine many testimonials. Their orders come promptly, problems are resolved immediately, their markups are low. Very importantly, they either publish or will email you buy/sell spreads and the spreads are incredibly reasonable. They take credit cards, though you have to pay a higher 'shipping' charge which actually makes up for the 2% or whatever the credit card companies charge vendors. But you can send a check or MO, too, and avoid that. They have a great website with hundreds and hundreds of types of bullion, from you basic workaday K-rands, to fancy Perth Mint stuff. Historical and numismatics, also, but I think the focus here is bullion, so that's what I'm talking about. I just like to look over the web site and drool sometimes. Too bad their pictures aren't so hot.

(For truly incredible coin pics, including the Eagles, Maples and Lunars I have discussed here, and more, check out thus guy's pics:
http://tinyurl.com/2smsw9)

APMEX prices also change automatically with spot, so if you see spot take a big hit one day, you can zip over to the site and lock in the price. That's always a good feeling when it pops back up the next day. But it cuts both ways, and if it drops you still have to follow through and pay or else they will cut off doing business with you. No free puts here.

Lastly, I promise, they have a very small minumum purchase amount, 50 bucks. That's much lower than many of the reputable big name bullion retailers.

What to buy, someone asked? May as well ask "what's the best color" or something.

For the absolute closest to spot and the widest, most worldwide recognition, Kruggerands are pretty much it. Especially good if you plan to take them out of the country. Gold American Eagles are a fine choice, too. K-rands sell closer to spot. Maples carry a higher premium and are quite beautiful. They are .9999, which is a little finer than .999 of the Gold Eagles, but that doesn't matter, as they all still contain 1 troy ounce. I think the silver eagles have a litle more silver mixed in, and the K-rands add a little copper for hardness. It is what gives them that orangey tone.

It's up to you which kind to buy. If you are a first time buyer, go to some coin shows or shops and check 'em out. Check out the silver, too. Since it's cheaper you can buy a bunch of different kinds and they are fun to own and hold. I like the Australian Lunars. I'm trying to get over the way the Perth Mint shafted Lunar buyers, and I, personally, may be all done with them. That said, the Lunar II series is looking nice. I just have a hard time going back to a company that screws loyal buyers, no matter how mighty fine their coins are.

It's addictive, but at least compared to crack, booze or fancy women, you'll have something to show for your addiction in a year or two.

Bill, I know you mentioned SAG.TO (South American Gold) as a sort of speculative play. Since then its been oscillating between about four and five cents per share. This was at the same time you mentioned WHY. Could you give an update on how you perceive the potential for this stock? Thanks in advance.

Bill, I know you mentioned SAG.TO (South American Gold) as a sort of speculative play. Since then its been oscillating between about four and five cents per share. This was at the same time you mentioned WHY. Could you give an update on how you perceive the potential for this stock? Thanks in advance.

Thanks to everyone for the advice on gold and silver. My tendency is to jump in and learn on the fly but that could make for some very expensive lessons. I bought an Eagle, Maple Leaf, and--on Kaimu's suggestion- several Sovereigns at the end of September. If PM's are going to continue going down
for a little while I want to be ready to stock up.

Did anyone catch today BNN commenting about the current PEs on the major markets? I think I heard today that the price to current earnings ratios is something like 50 on DJIA, about 30 on the Nasdaq , and about 11 on the TSX. It was very quick and I could have gotten these numbers mixed up too.

Im pleased you took the Ten Men comment as intended Bill. You work it pretty hard.

As there's no rest for the wicked, I thought I would post these familiar sentiment chart links provided in August by MarkM. While the Talking Noggins would have us believe we tested previous levels (as a percentage), it doesn't look like we're there in the indices or sentiment.
http://tinyurl.com/2ectq6
http://tinyurl.com/26r24g
http://tinyurl.com/2f78g9
http://tinyurl.com/yoxglr

Something else I was wondering about gold is why is there the distinction between pre- and post-1933? TIA

MikeNYC

Thanks for the write up on "Buying Bullion".

Thanks Isaiah. There's a LOT more to it than that, and some are only my opinions, but I was just putting a few thoughts out there.

Well I covered my GS short. I was hoping for more but I think next week will be an up week since the indexes bounced off support and a number of key stocks had successful tests of their 50 day moving averages(AAPL, RIMM, QCOM, and GOOG to name a few). I'm thinking the techs and financials will get a boost next week. Hopefully we will get a morning dip Monday to buy instead of a gap up. Being option expiration day I figure there will be less premium to pay for Jan 08 calls on Monday as opposed to today. We just need the morning weakness then I'll be buying either Jan or March calls on AAPL, C, LEH, and VIP. Hopefully I'm more right this time. I think I'm getting a handle on this dance.

Rob.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/11/greatest-storyever.html

I am too negative. Bad dog.

SIO2, your post at 6:27 (P/E ratios of major indexes)

I saw the same thing, did a double take, but the graphic was gone. Thought I saw 56x for the DOW. Now I can't even remember when I saw it (near end of trading day?), and couldn't find it in the BNN.ca video clips.

Did anyone else spot this, and note when it aired?

Bill,

Thanks for the update on WHY Resources. This is one that I have a small position in for the long run (along with VAL) -- (I prefer the "buy-hold-and be patient's" more than the day trades at this point). When you last talked about WHY you also had a nice presentation on the company in ppt format. Did you receive any new documentation this time from the CEO?

Looking forward to PDAC again this coming year, and will surely stop by for a hello and a handshake again. The weather in Toronto today reminded me of that chilly day back in March!

"think I heard today that the price to current earnings ratios is something like 50 on DJIA.."

Dow Jones website shows a trailing P/E of 16.17 on the industrials as of 10/31, guessing what you "heard" might have been 15.6...

http://tinyurl.com/yvzvaj

MikeNYC
"I'm trying to get over the way the Perth Mint shafted Lunar buyers" - can you give more detail please. As I recall, Kaimu is a big fan of Perth Mint.
TIA

Endeavour Silver has ABCP:
On the balance sheet, the Company holds $5.2 million of asset backed commercial paper (ABCP), which matured in September. Due to disruptions in these markets, the funds were not repaid when due to the Company. The major holders of this ABCP entered into an interim standstill arrangement (Montreal Agreement) to restructure these investments and no final resolution has yet been achieved. Based on discussions with our advisor, the Company has re-classified its ABCP's as Short Term Investments rather than Cash Equivalents and provided an impairment of $634,000 or approximately 12% discount based on market expectation of recoverable amount and the timeline of recovery.

cyderman,
The Perth Mint metal pool is prefectly fine, as far as I know. And the Perth Mint coins are truly among, if not, the most beautiful produced today.

The issue is a somewhat obscure one in how they marketed and produced their annual Lunar set. It's a little complicated: They introduced the lunar silvers three years after the lunar golds. Each year a new one based on the Chinese lunar calendar. All were and are huge hits. I have stacks and stacks of lunars, especially the 1 oz dragons. But they pulled a fast one. The lunar golds finished this year. In order to synchronize the releases of the new Lunar II gold and silver series, they released the last three year silvers all at once. They took orders for them for a few months and then smashed the dies.

This did a couple of things: 1. Instead of the snakes and dragons becoming the most sought-after, and rightly so because of their beauty and coolness, it seems the last three coins will be the rarest, because of the short period of time during which orders will be taken.

It also made it hard for me to come up with the dough to buy these three all at once, in short notice.

OK, so no guarantees when you are speculating, and it seems the dragons are still sought after for various reasons. So I'm good. That alone would not make me angry, as it's just an assumed risk and I still love the coins.

But even worse: they announced they would not produce the 2 oz sizes, and one or two other sizes. So all those people who were collecting the 2 oz lunars for years and years? Sorry Charlie! But you can buy the Lunar II series!

How would you feel as a steady customer, trusting the Mint to finish the series and then be told "Too bad!" No tiger or rat for you!

Even though I only have a few 2 ozers, it really rubbed me the wrong way and I'm not alone. I love the coins, but it's hard to go back to something when you've been smacked hard. I just don't trust them in that way.

(This has nothing to do with the metal pool accounts.)

Thain. 50 to 120 million/year to take over Merril. I think I puked a little in the back of my throat just reading the first couple of paragraphs of that article. I couldn't even finish reading it.

The 120 million number comes if the stock price rises by $40. Expect massive buybacks at some point.

So Mike, are you putting any money on Thain the crooked horse? I'm seeing 44 million on Bloomberg, that must be the base pay.

Thanks to everyone concerned about us shorts and warning of support at the moving averages. Once you have a gander at Colin Twiggs' report today I think you will worry a little less, as am I.

Money flows were quite negative this week and trend channels were breached all over the place.

2nd, Do check it out and pay special attention to the Hang Seng and Shanghai. Quite the cliff and support is wayyyyy down there after falling through support at the lower channel line and the Hang Seng actually established a downward trend channel.

And the nasd also broke it's lower trend channel and support.

Anyone else have trouble sleeping in on weekends?
My head clock goes off at 4 AM everyday. Yawn, I think I'm addicted.
Back to your regularly scheduled weekend events.

Isaiah64v4and everyone, hello,

Am sure most here are practicing this,but if you want to refreash or need reading material for weekend, this is good stuff, I think. I'm reading now and thought I'd share.

Since The Hypnosis cd seems unavailable I think this will work as well.

http://tinyurl.com/2bv5y7

Five Minute Investing
Supercharge and Manage Your Portfolio in Five Minutes a Day
By Braden Glett, glett@yahoo.com
Copyright © 1995 by Braden Glett

moneygenie,

Thanks for the link! I'll check it out now.

Have a good weekend and I'll see you Monday right here.

Saudi minister warns of dollar collapse...

Prince Saud Al-Faisal was overheard ruling out a proposal from Iran and Venezuela to discuss pricing crude in a private meeting at the oil cartel's conference.

In an embarrassing blunder at the meeting in Riyadh, ministers' microphones were not cut off during a key closed meeting, and Prince Al-Faisal was heard saying: "My feeling is that the mere mention that the Opec countries are studying the issue of the dollar is itself going to have an impact that endangers the interests of the countries. "There will be journalists who will seize on this point and we don't want the dollar to collapse instead of doing something good for Opec."

After around 40 minutes press officials cut off the feed, which had been accidentally broadcast to the press room.

http://tinyurl.com/326ffg