Good morning everybody

I have just published my regular weekly article highlighting some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart. Here is the link:

http://tinyurl.com/33b34h

We're in for a tough time!

"Have a good day, if the market allows it today."

My hope is that the color of our days is not shaped by the market!

HSI- joked to my wife last night that my initial (erroneous) post below may turn out to have been the "sith guide." sometimes you do have a sixth sense about things.

[Hang Seng below 29K

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 10:08 PM]

[make that 29.9K

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 10:14 PM]

Dines Letter "reaffirm[s] our old targets for gold of $3,000 to $5,000 an ounce (Plus silver over $100 an ounce)"

http://tinyurl.com/388b92

and although "Dines still rates himself 'long-term neutral' on stocks," ->"Stock markets are getting a bit oversold here, and we are looking for a rally in the S&P 500 Index anytime, somewhere between the 1,420-1,495 areas, probably in November, paving the way for the traditional year-end rally."

How good a timer has he been?: "The Dines Letter is up 28.2% over the past 12 months vs. 15.1% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest. And over the past 10 years, Dines is up an even more impressive 19.8% annualized vs. 7.4% for the total-return DJ Wilshire."

LOL! Lead on 2nd. If you buy a lotto ticket, pick one up for me.....

So much for taking imprudent positions....I nibbled some C aftermkt trying to game poor Chuck....That didn't work very good, sold for a small loss this AM. More write downs....

Glad I still have a hunk of SKF!

Hey,

I remember over the last oh 6 months CRAMER and all those on TOUT TV saying as soon as Prince leaves Citigroup stock is GOING HIGHER...

Well, what happened Prince is out and the stock is down another dollar pre market.

Maybe the BILLIONS IN LOSSES that the shareholders are going to pay for...

I feel bad for all those people that listened to Cramer and others and bought the stock...

WHO KNOWS HOW LOW THE RAT HOLE GOES..

"My hope is that the color of our days is not shaped by the market!"

Leisa, that is very, very well said. Thanks.

What does TIA stand for?

SiO2- Nymex NG Dec07 down >3%, your Friday am UNG short looks well-timed...looking to go long again if it dips below 41...

bb,,,,,,,TIA="thanks in advance"

dab

Banks ranked by CDO Exposure

http://tinyurl.com/2vj3vj

With the S&P futures cratering early, it looks like maybe we get another serious test of 1490 early today.

I expect a pile on from sellers if that level can't hold.

I'm remembering Friday and my saying it felt like August.....my spidey sense was a session early.

This AM I get a mkt letter/warning from a well known blogger-analyst most of you read.

He says to watch volume on the DOW and transports and if we break 12846 DOW and 4672 transports, we may see a 20-30% sell off.

We shall see. I'm mostly in cash with three positions, a dry shipper I have a good basis on (EGLE), SKF and a few shares of WGDFF in the IRA.

You may get some good opportunities today 2nd.

Bill,another term frequently used on the Blog

Flow-Through Shares

Here's how they work. Resource companies typically have huge upfront exploration costs and little or no revenue. That means they don't need the tax deductions they would incur as income-generating companies. To finance that exploration, they'll issue shares and allow the tax deductions to "flow through" to investors.

Resource companies often issue flow-through shares at a premium compared with their common shares.Experts agree that when the premium reaches 30%, there's no benefit to investors.

See PROFIT Mag. link for complete details
http://tinyurl.com/ys2czc

Inflation watch: food transporter Sysco Corp. (SYY) reported higher than expected earnings this morning. They noted the upside surprise due to "unusually high food cost inflation", which lowered operating costs as a percentage of sales.

leisa- was it you that rolled the dice on WCG last thursday->up 45% pre-market..

Hi,

Like many others, I am a long time reader but first time contributor. Repeating what many have said, I too have learned a lot and am grateful to Bill and others in the community who contributes regularly. Truly a wonderful place to learn.

For the first time I feel that I can contribute something, with me being from Asia.

For 2nd_ave and others who may be interested in monitoring Shanghai, i am enclosing a site from sina.com that has near realtime info on the Shanghai index. It is in Chinese but everyone can read off the index numbers. Just a note of caution, the index displays NEGATIVE numbers in GREEN and POSITIVE numbers in RED ... the opposite of what we are normally used to.

http://tinyurl.com/3belnq

Happy trading all

hoong

CARA 100: ECA

EnCana Corp. is paying $2.5-billion (U.S.) to buy out its partner in the Deep Bossier natural gas play in Texas a little more than two years after acquiring its first chunk, and says the play could become the most important in its North American portfolio.

EnCana president and chief executive officer Randy Eresman said in a news release:
“It has the potential to be the leading resource play in our North American portfolio.”

Everyone,

We all like the discourse and enlightenment provided by Bill's blog and many of the commentors have become well respected. I wonder if they are willing to share the names of other blogs that they read and respect,including perhaps the blogs that Bill reads. Thanks.

WCG- shoulda read your blog first, congrats..

http://tinyurl.com/27o3o8

hoong- thank you very much

2nd_Ave---I entered WCG at $24.15 last Wed/Th. I sold this a.m. at $40 pre-market. It was only 200 shares--but it was a good gain for my speculative, e-trade portfolio.

Bill,
Aren't we all happy to have grown out of the crawling stage? I did that a couple times. One time I took a crawling tequila tour of Venice California. I don't recommend the tequila tour.
The stairs and sidewalk get in the way.

I'm sure I impressed my girlfriend at the time.

I have learned at least one thing over the years. One drink, good. Two drinks okay if you have nothing to do. Stop at two and don't smell tequila anymore.

This link will provide other links to every stock exchange on the Planet!

http://tinyurl.com/28kdov

Commentary: Did Goldman alter the oil market to gain profit?
By Jane Louis
02 Nov 2007 at 12:32 PM

In this commentary, Jim Willie CB calls out Goldman Sachs for “playing games, abusing their role and making money, all legally” by manoeuvring the oil market to its advantage:

“The latest shameful event is the call by Goldman Sachs to sell crude oil. First of all, it was a blatant attempt to steer the oil market lower for their profit. GSax surely had huge short positions or at least planned to soon unload profitable long positions. Second, they only cited the factors pertaining to the sell (bear) side, each tied to fundamentals for the energy market. My point here is that GSax omitted the primary reason why crude oil is rising. The weak U.S. dollar has an excellent hedge in the crude oil investment generally, in particular oil contracts and energy stocks.”

Read more about Goldman’s “Glaring Omission” here.
http://tinyurl.com/3dvagw

Bill,
You commented days ago that Gartman's comment to "buy higher and sell higher" was a fools theory. Yet comments from #2son today that if S & P 1490 is broken look out below because "everyone" will pile on. Isn't that sell low and cover lower just the same concept? What creates this type of conceptual trading in real dollars in real time?

Bill.......

"I don't recall why we were on the floor"

Because you were probably drinking
"Hurricanes" [1] at O'Briens on a hot[2] Louisiana night. I worked for Shell Oil in N.O. druing the oil boom yrs of the late 70's. I am familiar with that 1-2 punch. It can be deadly! :-)

Is anyone looking to see some significant strength in the near term for the U.S. Dollar? It seems to me, now that the music has seemed to stop and folks are starting to rush off the dance floor, the piper's fee is going to be hefty. Once these banks and funds decide to throw in the towel and pay these debts, wont there be a mad dash to cash to do so? Anyone have any ideas on the best way play near term dollar strength?

Bill,

Thanks. I have followed Leisa's Blog Roll with interest and respect. I was hoping for more input from other active contributors to your Blog.

Hoosier,

You could always play UUP.

arnjsn,

I like this one:

http://attheselevels.com/

Have a great day, everyone.

2nd, it was the first time i went short on UNG (42 puts). I sold 38 calls I had and bought the 41 puts with the profits. I'll go long if it drops to 39 or so. I think you are the one who introduced me to UNG, thank you.
I really do not like the prospects of natural gas, but UNG great for a trade as it tends to oscillate. The options have low volumes and big spreads, but it still works well (until it doesn't).

It would help if my bank would let me access my brokerage account, right now RBC has made my account disappear.

Bull Hunter,

Thank you, I have looked at UUP... a little too thinly traded for my liking.

hoosier-

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
Rydex Strengthening Dollar 2x Strategy A (RYSDX)

surely there are more out there, but these were the easiest to find.

using google finance (and yahoo now too), you do not have to know the symbol for things. i typed in "dollar" and anything with the word dollar in it popped up.

2nd should be an interesting open and day for EEV. Picked up long position on its first day of trading last week.

No word on first day for ultrashort FXP. Not eager to jump into that one (when it's issued) just yet.

See the Amex is listing options on some Proshare ultra plays like DUG & DXD (no position).

hoong & Trading My Chips---Thanks for the links. (Now to remember the color scheme!)

"'buy high and sell higher' was a fools theory. Yet comments from #2son today that if S & P 1490 is broken look out below because "everyone" will pile on. Isn't that sell low and cover lower just the same concept?"

not really...shorting at 1490 is actually selling near the high (but waiting for confirmation of a change in trend before doing so)...so the concept of buy low/sell high still holds...your analogy would only hold if n2son were to advocate shorting near the bottom...

Bill,
I have elaborated on my 5-Daym Momentum Indicator.
Recall that on Tuesday last week it gave a SELL signal. This is a short term, indicaotor tha can be useful.

arnjsn,

I follow a several blogs (many of whom post regularly here):

In addition to Leisa's blog:

Calculated Risk
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

Chart Pattern Trader
http://thechartpatterntrader.blogspot.com/

Denninger's Market Ticker (rated NC-17) ;)
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Ron Sen
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/

Will Rahal
http://www.wrahal.blogspot.com/

Trader Mike
http://tradermike.net/

Trader Feed
http://www.traderfeed.blogspot.com/

FWIW

Arnsju: The Kirk Report (http://www.thekirkreport.com/), The Big Picture (http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/), Random Roger (http://randomroger.blogspot.com/)are three places you can start--good blogs plus a blog roll (I have them referenced on my site too, as Bill referenced). Also, Tim Knight for bearish plays (http://tradeblogs.typepad.com/the_slope_of_hope_with_ti/)

Oh.,...and Peterdag (Georg Dagnino's blog http://peterdag.blogspot.com/ and his website with lots of techincal/cycle info that is very complementary to Bill's work here http://peterdag.blogspot.com/

Well on Friday I was too scared of HB&B to hold my Nov 190 Goldman puts over the weekend. I bought them for .35 and sold them for 1.10. I know I shouldn't kick myself for a respectable gain like that but I could have sold them today for 2.20. Well Hopefully I'll use the gain for something good today. Good luck out there!!

Rob.

All,

I hope that some of these other blogs being referred will be helpful to others as well!

seamus- sold EEV at 75.79 and adding to QID...as GOOG powers to a new high...

Bill--I'm flattered that you referenced my site.

Bill,

You've said in the past that you like HD at or near $30. Do you still feel that way - and would you pick it over LOW which is around $25-26 ?

TIA

I find that the Bespoke Investment Group guys provide an interesting take on things. They do a good job of finding someway to illustrate data that they present.

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/

Bill & Hoong,

I recall gifting a green baseball cap to a friend from Shanghai at a party attended by several Chinese. The women all howled with laughter. The negative connotation was that when a man wears a green hat it means he is cheating on his wife!

Re KRY: Put this day on your calender - December 2nd, 2007. the VZ National Assembly has been overwhelmingly approving Hugo's socialist agenda, so "country risk" goes to a new level because the Dec 2nd Referendum "would allow the government to expropriate private property, take control of the Central Bank, and create new types of property managed by co-operatives. They would extend presidential terms from 6 to 7 years and allow Chavez to run again in 2012". More political upheaval, possible oil crisis in the making.... who needs this??

May be late to the party, but bought USU here at 9.45

USU popped up on the heaviest call option activity list with 51145 contracts traded on Friday alone vs. monthly 3776 volume.

http://tinyurl.com/zwfzw

Earnings reports and forecasts have improved and that appears to the catalyst. Daily RSI7 went above 30 @ 10/26. Weekly RSI7 just passed weekly RSI14. Do your own due diligence.

Bill's retail list is very unloved.

Seamus, RE: USU. On top of the other good news you mention, Tim, on Fast Money, pimped it on Friday, so their minions were buying after hours.

Hi Terry,

The comment about the Green cap is worse ... or just as bad ... depending on your personal view.

A man wearing a green hat signifies that his wife has been unfaithful, not him being unfaithful - a totally shameful thing for a Chinese man in olden times, who needs to maintain his face in a conservative society...

Funny that I have never thought of a green baseball cap in that manner before until you brought it up.

Thanks for the funny.
In need of a good laugh in today's market.

On Saturday I went to a Metastock presentation which was heavy on sales & light on technical analysis. The presenter charted the USD/CAD exchange - I asked him if it was signaling a buy. He said no.

Guess that's why he's selling charting tools... lol.

Citi stuff and a thought....CIBC says Citi math doesn't add up - dividend in jeopardy (article below). This contradicts Doug Kass this morning that says dividend not in jeopardy "yet" which I took to mean that he can't extrapolate this out yet evening with what he knows. Dick Bove of Punk Ziegel who is pretty good upgraded Citi this morning and also said dividend not in jeopardy.

Whatever the deal the story is a long way from being over. I am not sure I would game the financials right now.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/11/05/8632/cibc-citis-math-doesnt-add-up/

My next concern is this...If the monoline insurers are in trouble like Ambac, MGIC, MBIA and the rest what's the potential problem in the muni bond arena? No one is talking about this but it occurred to me over the weekend that Ambac insures a large large portion of municipal bonds. Anyone have any thoughts on the potential risks in Muni's here?

Would you apply the normal RSI > 70 as sell signal for etf funds like GDX and XLE? Wouldn't that get you out too often in a long uptrending market? Also, May to Sept the RSI moved downwards while XLE went up.

Bill,

You might want to see if folks from CNBC are starting to use this site for source material. hahaha. I was listening to Squawk Box on my way to the work site, and low and behold they started talking about how Goldman Sacks runs everything! I chuckled when thinking about last night's discourse and thought to myself, "Always one step ahead with the Cara community."

Rob and Bull, thanks for the UUP info, but

PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (UUP) +.55%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish (UDN) +.43%

Both the bull and bear dollar ETF's are up?

The INO dollar index is delayed 30 min so I curious what it is currently trading at

I decided to do a blog search to answer my own question of muni bond risk above. For anyone that's interested or has muni's acrruedinterest.com had a recent write up of the risks.
******************************

Anyway, so what would happen if an insurer was bankrupt? First of all, retail investors would likely call up their brokers and demand to sell any bond insured by the defunct insurer. The result would be that the (formerly) insured bonds would trade weaker than uninsured bonds with the same underlying rating. Don't believe me? Radian insured bonds are already trading weaker than their underlying, and Radian is still in business.

The other immediate effect will be a price searching process for insured bonds, particularly in sectors considered more risky, like health care and project financings. Much like what went on in ABS this summer, potential sellers of bonds will have to feel out where the bids are, and potential buyers of bonds will be extremely cautious and extremely cheap when bidding.

Next, muni buyers would start questioning the value of bond insurance in general. If the insurance doesn't absolve the buyer of doing credit research, buyers will want to be paid for their efforts. If buyers won't assign a substantially lower rate to insured bonds, then issuers won't bother to pay for the insurance. All insurers, regardless of their actual financial strength, will see new business plummet.

All this will cause a very murky market to become murkier. That will create a wonderful buying opportunity for those with the cash and the confidence in their analysis. Wider bid/ask spreads tend to favor long-term buyers over other players, because wide bid/ask almost always indicates fear. You'll have to have the stomach and the job security to live through a bumpy ride.

What will be the long-term consequences? Possibly a decrease in retail buyers owning bonds directly. If retail investors don't feel confident in the quality of what they're buying, you'll likely see them rotate into funds.

Like I said in the beginning, this is a low probability scenario. But its not impossible.

http://accruedint.blogspot.com/2007/11/municipal-bond-insurers-more-dangerous.html

Merril's and UBS' math are murky too:

"Merrill Lynch analysts, for example, calculate that mid-quality ABX debt is on average now trading at 40 cents in the dollar. But these analysts say that Merrill Lynch itself has only written this type of debt down to 63 cents in the dollar - and UBS is still assuming this debt is worth 90 cents. "Simple math would imply that UBS needs an additional $8bn write-down [on its $15.4bn holdings] if the ABX pricing is correct," Merrill says." Source: FT http://tinyurl.com/38d3a4

40c/63c/90c on the dollar? That still seems too high, who would buy that stuff?

I decided to do a blog search to answer my own question of muni bond risk above. For anyone that's interested or has muni's acrruedinterest.com had a recent write up of the risks.
******************************

Anyway, so what would happen if an insurer was bankrupt? First of all, retail investors would likely call up their brokers and demand to sell any bond insured by the defunct insurer. The result would be that the (formerly) insured bonds would trade weaker than uninsured bonds with the same underlying rating. Don't believe me? Radian insured bonds are already trading weaker than their underlying, and Radian is still in business.

The other immediate effect will be a price searching process for insured bonds, particularly in sectors considered more risky, like health care and project financings. Much like what went on in ABS this summer, potential sellers of bonds will have to feel out where the bids are, and potential buyers of bonds will be extremely cautious and extremely cheap when bidding.

Next, muni buyers would start questioning the value of bond insurance in general. If the insurance doesn't absolve the buyer of doing credit research, buyers will want to be paid for their efforts. If buyers won't assign a substantially lower rate to insured bonds, then issuers won't bother to pay for the insurance. All insurers, regardless of their actual financial strength, will see new business plummet.

All this will cause a very murky market to become murkier. That will create a wonderful buying opportunity for those with the cash and the confidence in their analysis. Wider bid/ask spreads tend to favor long-term buyers over other players, because wide bid/ask almost always indicates fear. You'll have to have the stomach and the job security to live through a bumpy ride.

What will be the long-term consequences? Possibly a decrease in retail buyers owning bonds directly. If retail investors don't feel confident in the quality of what they're buying, you'll likely see them rotate into funds.

Like I said in the beginning, this is a low probability scenario. But its not impossible.

http://accruedint.blogspot.com/2007/11/municipal-bond-insurers-more-dangerous.html

Merril's and UBS' math are murky too:

"Merrill Lynch analysts, for example, calculate that mid-quality ABX debt is on average now trading at 40 cents in the dollar. But these analysts say that Merrill Lynch itself has only written this type of debt down to 63 cents in the dollar - and UBS is still assuming this debt is worth 90 cents. "Simple math would imply that UBS needs an additional $8bn write-down [on its $15.4bn holdings] if the ABX pricing is correct," Merrill says." Source: FT http://tinyurl.com/38d3a4

40c/63c/90c on the dollar? That still seems too high, who would buy that stuff?

For anyone interested in CROX, they announced on Friday that they will buy back 1 Million shares. The entire float is only 64 Million. I'll let you know when I buy the Jan 2009 calls.

Rob.

QID- adding at 34.95...the "Q" trade has to be getting old...maybe it's time for longs to rotate back into financials?

PNP.TO +4.8% @ 7.00CAD
Disclosure: Long @ 5.75 from last Wednesday; bought when NOT.V was up 12+% and saw PNP.TO up only 1.5%. Pinetree Capital owns 7.6% of Noront Resources.
http://tinyurl.com/26atbf

NOT.V +2.9% @ 5.62CAD

Stillwater Mining (SWC) just got its legs cut out from under it after announcing poor earnings and a reduction in expected '07 production.

This is a perfect example of a stock to NOT hold into earnings.

GOOG and RIMM at new highs- Oppenheimer reiterates 'Buy' on GOOG, Am Tech reiterates 'Buy' on RIMM...AAPL's about to turn green...

Geckojb Thanks for the information. I have a number of short term munis (most are 14 months or less) that I intend to hold until maturity. The one long term holding from Puerto Rico is now out about 6-7 years and is backed by the federal government. I don’t trade in and out of munis.

I agree with your point about some future opportunities for buyers. The key is the type of municipal (water, tollway, GO, etc.) and the location. I avoid the health facilities.

I was recently looking over a listing (not sure where on the web I found it) reflecting the drop in property tax receipts for each state due to the sub-prime real estate fiasco. Looks like a lot of belt tightening and cut backs in service, some states more than others. You’ll probably get better service in Bagdhad! (Just joking!)

DOWN 21 %

If your mining company operates in Democratic Republic of the Congo .....resd this.

Anvil Mining Limited - Update
08:05 EST Monday, Nov 05, 2007

TSX, ASX: AVM

Common shares outstanding: 70.5 million

MONTREAL, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Anvil Mining Limited (TSX, ASX: AVM) ("Anvil" or the "Company") responded today to news reports that the Commission appointed to review mining contracts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo ("DRC") and which reports to the Minister of Mines in the DRC, has recommended that 61 of those contracts be renegotiated or terminated. The recommendations appear to relate to almost all of the companies which hold mining rights in the country without regard to the timing or basis upon which they were negotiated. News reports have stated that the Commission will recommend the termination of Anvil's contractual rights to the Dikulushi copper-silver mine as well as the rights to 23 other contracts held by other companies. In addition, news reports have stated that Anvil's joint venture in respect of the Mutoshi property (which includes the Kulu Mine) and lease agreement with respect to the Kinsevere-Nambulwa property (which includes the Kinsevere Mine) have been recommended for renegotiation along with another 35 contracts held by other companies.

Anvil confirmed that it has received no written communication from the Minister of Mines or the Commission (or any other government body in the DRC) in respect of renegotiation or termination of any agreement to which Anvil or any of its subsidiaries is a party. Anvil understands that the Commission is to report to the Minister of Mines and that the Commission is mandated to issue recommendations only and does not appear to have the power itself to renegotiate or terminate any contract. Accordingly, Anvil can offer no comment on whether any of its contractual arrangements in the DRC will actually be terminated or renegotiated. Nor can it comment on the terms of any such renegotiation or termination.

Anvil is an unhedged copper and silver producer whose shares are listed for trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (as common shares) and the Australian Stock Exchange (as CDIs) under the symbol AVM. It has a majority interest in and operates the Dikulushi copper-silver mine, the Kinsevere copper mine and the Kulu copper tailings operation in the Katanga Province of the DRC.

for short to mid term traders, year end rally is still very likely. I like Briefing.com for their short term market view (see big picture or market view on their free investor site). their analysis is pretty convicing and quite accurate based on track record.

hang on tight in this kind of volatile day.

BMO has a new research report on Nautlius Minerals:

http://tinyurl.com/ywxgxo

The "Green Hat" story is an excellent example of why it is important to gain knowledge and understanding of other cultures.

The "Green Hat" story is an excellent example of why it is important to gain knowledge and understanding of other cultures.

"hang on tight in this kind of volatile day."

not seeing much yet...but if i were long right now, i'd have tight stops in place, so we should see some soon...

Hi!

As Bill keeps on saying: keep your eyes on the ball...

One thing to keep in mind about tech is that it is the "go-to" place to squeeze out productivity in otherwise shrinking margins etc. Perhaps a the small cap short and 2x shorts might be more attractive bets than QID.

Leisa - Your MGPI trade looks promising.

Hello Bill and all,

I can't seem to get my head around ABX & NEM @ $46 and $52 today and moving higher.

Is it "smart money" or really dumb speculators??

Any thoughts appreciated because I am paralized just watching. I will leave pretty soon but it is quite compelling to watch and wonder about.

TIA

Geckojb Forgot to mention---FWIW

The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a case Monday that could shrink the $2.5 trillion municipal bond market by ending state income-tax exemptions that appeal to investors

leisa- great idea...looking into SDD...

Moab, Onlineaces, trading my chips, geckojb, et.al -

Thanks for this morning's treasure-trove of information. And thanks to Bill for making it all happen! No place on the web can match this community!

Gold is in backwardation this morning by $4. This is the most I have seen it since I started monitoring the spread in 2006.

This is highly unusual. According to Fekete, this signals a breakdown in the money system as he sees it.

FranSix,

What do you mean?? can you say it another way?

TIA

"Gold is in backwardation this morning by $4. This is the most I have seen it since I started monitoring the spread in 2006.

This is highly unusual. According to Fekete, this signals a breakdown in the money system as he sees it."

It also just rocketed up $7 in 20 minutes, though it has come down a bit (being walked down?) Went long $GOLD for 2.75 of that movement. Not bad for 15 minutes. Shorted $GOLD last night at the open for a similar amount, though it took longer than 15 minutes.

Gold near futures price minus the spot price is called the gold basis.

By knowing the gold basis, you can tell whether gold prices are to continue to appreciate.

Gold is now back in contango in the last few minutes, which is normal, but only just, meaning the gold basis is still very tight.

The only metal not to enter into long term backwardation during the metals run up is gold. There is a theoretical moment where gold in backwardation is a signal to hyperinflation, since no money can buy it. I haven't seen any proof of this theory so far.

Gold does not normally enter into backwardation for long.

Gold near futures are now up and the basis is still very tight. ~$1 basis today, sustained.

Highly unusual day as gold is the only indece up for the day, AND SO IS THE $US.

So theoretically we see hyperinflation when gold is in sustained backwardation, while if we see gold appreciating in all currencies while those currencies strengthen, this is a signal to deflation.

This is why I say we are in a deflationary boom in Canada, because we have experienced growth and stock market advances even while the currency appreciates, though wage growth has been stagnant or negative.

Northgate posts loss after $32.3-million writedown
09:43 EST Monday, Nov 05, 2007


VANCOUVER — — Northgate Minerals Corporation [NGX-T] posted a loss of more than $11.9-million (U.S.) for the third quarter after the company booked a $32.3-million non-cash writedown of the carrying value of the Vancouver company's Kemess North project, which a joint government panel has recommended be scrapped.

The Vancouver company said Monday it lost 5 cents a unit for the three months ended Sept. 30, compared with a net profit of $14.9-million or 7 cents a share for the corresponding quarter of 2006.

replacing 20% of the QID short with SDD...

moneygenie, I'm sure FranSix will explain, but I highly recommend seeking out Fekete's articles on the gold and silver basis.

If I remember correctly, he also said that negative basis and backwardation in silver would be an even bigger deal than the same in gold. But I might have that wrong.

============================================

For those who want pay attention to such things, there was an important new paper released this summer, which deals with basis as an investment/trading guide.

Even if you don't or can't read the whole thing, seek out articles about the paper. You can bet that HB&B and the hedge funds have already read it and incorporated it into their strategies. It's that important. (Savvy traders were probably aware of much of what they discuss, only they didn't write a paper about it! I'm sure plenty of guys saw that paper and said 'Damn you Gorton!')

The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns

GARY B. GORTON
University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
FUMIO HAYASHI
University of Tokyo; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
K. GEERT ROUWENHORST
Yale School of Management, International Center for Finance June 2007

Who loves BX and CNBC?
This guy!

Join the darkside folks....in the words of Darth Vader: "If you only knew the power of the dark side."

Buy all the BX you can at these firesale prices!!! They own Deutche Telekom, Equity Office Properties, Hilton Hotels, Freescale Semiconductor....the list goes on and on....they are like a combination of Goldman Sachs and Berkshire Hathaway put together!!! Oh and did I mention they will soon be paying out a huge dividend, too?

Re: FranSix and backwardation.

Can anyone list a website containing real time gold near futures prices or gold basis? Thank you.

My first blog. How do I find good real time charts? Is it necessary to subscribe to find charts good enough for daytrading?

I just compare the near futures price at TD Waterhouse vs. Kitco.com.

To my knowledge, there is no single website which offers this.

BobbyV: Your broker my offer these--you may have to pay unless you trade enough or have a high enough account balance. I use Fidelity, and get real time charts there. Stockcharts and other charting services offer real time. I'm not aware of any free services.

imo, this list of futures prices in the gold is not correct, because it should have the spot price at the top:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=GCX07.CMX

You COULD compare the near futures (2nd one on the list) with the spot price at Kitco.com. They are both 15min. delayed, so that's fine.

Notice the gold basis has widened considerably since the first hours of trading today from backwardation to now ~$6 contango

So let me get this straight. Citi has a market cap of approximately 177 Billion currently. It was reported by MarketWatch, "Citigroup Inc. ... said its so-called level 3 assets as of Sept. 30 were $134.84 billion. Level 3 assets are holdings that are so illiquid, or trade so infrequently, that they have no reliable price, so their valuations are based on management's best guess." Hat tip to Calculated Risk blog where I saw this, and CR wisely but an emphasis on "reported". If those level 3 assets poof to nothingness, man... I'm at a loss for words.

Leisa, 2nd_ave: why would you switch from QID to SDD? SKF has been outperforming SDD for a while now, so the way I see it, it is best to "follow the trend" with SKF and wait for a trend reversal with QID (it seems to have made a bottom at $35 and has the potential to snapping back to $50). So I am currently holding both QID and SKF. Am I missing something in my logic?

David--I surely do not know the answer, but big cap tech is the trade du juour. Given that the financials have led down, it makes sense that SKF outperforms. But I think that the sector rotation into big cap tech will keep QQQQ stronger relative to others. Just an opinion.

But Hoosier, they will probably value those $134B at 60c or 90c on the dollar. :-) It may end up being a lot of toilet paper though.

So, does that mean that Citigroup's actual value is only 36 billion? We all know that even if they state the 134 billion is worth 60 cents on the dollar, with no buyers for those holdings it's just wishful thinking on their part. Unless Rubin can repackage them in some way that will appeal to buyers. I also read over the weekend that the banks slice, dice, and securitize credit card accounts the same way they've done with mortgages. Are those securites included in the level 3 as well or are investors still buying those? All this makes me wonder how solvent my bank is these days.

Rob.

If the Dow tanked by 30%, which sectors would be first to rise in the short term, and the long term?

Looks like another test of 1490 coming any minute!!!!

Looks like another test of 1490 coming any minute!!!!

david- no one really knows...i think you'll do fine with your current position...i'm just trying to tweak my short posture for better returns->main thing is you're short...(and per Dines' call, i'm also keeping an eye on SPY 142-149 to play a bounce on the long side)...

Here comes the bear attack.

Watching for the goal line stand on the S&P.

"If the Dow tanked by 30%, which sectors would be first to rise in the short term, and the long term?"

The illegal drug trade and the arms trade.

david- no one really knows...i think you'll do fine with your current position...i'm just trying to tweak my short posture for better returns->main thing is you're short...(and per Dines' call, i'm also keeping an eye on SPY 142-149 to play a bounce on the long side)...

JUST curious, why is no one talking about trading:

UltraShort Dow30 ProShares ETFAMEX:DXD
Bid 49.54 Ask 49.55 Day's Range 48.82-49.96 Volume 2,787,524 (Below Avg)

JUST curious, why is no one talking about trading:

UltraShort Dow30 ProShares ETFAMEX:DXD
Bid 49.54 Ask 49.55 Day's Range 48.82-49.96 Volume 2,787,524 (Below Avg)

TIA

JUST curious, why is no one talking about trading:

UltraShort Dow30 ProShares ETFAMEX:DXD
Bid 49.54 Ask 49.55 Day's Range 48.82-49.96 Volume 2,787,524 (Below Avg)

TIA

Does anyone know of a source where one can get a list of when companies are going to release earnings? Preferably at least a week in advance. TIA

Q4 or year end releases are min. 6 weeks into the new year.

Fransix,

You can go to: http://www2.barchart.com/cadvance.asp
Click futures and you can check: Currencies, Metals, Energy's etc. 20 minute delay.

Fransix,

You can go to:
www2.barchart.com/cadvance.asp
Click futures and you can check: Currencies, Metals, Energy's etc. 20 minute delay.

BobbyV:

I recommend Tradestation, not free. I also use Fidelity, but sometimes it lags or gives bad data. If your serious about trading, you probably should have two sources.

Freshly TOMO injected HB&B lineman turn away the bears again. :^)

Freshly TOMO injected HB&B linemen turn away the bears again. :^)

Donald Coxe on Friday saying "don't dare sell your gold stocks". Also still likes agriculture and oil, but less so as the majors seem to be running out of reserves and is becoming political (with Alberta being the latest).

On the financials side, says insurance is best, followed by credit cards and lastly the banks/brokers.

Telestar3rd, try earnings.com. Also try the website of the individual company.

Should add re the financials, that is the order if you need to be in financials and generally would avoid.

earningswhisper.com

UNG- heading for 41->a 4% intra-day move has a 50/50 chance of making a good entry/exit point...

Elvispoc, could you give some color on this BX dividend, their website does not reference this as far as I can tell. TIA

Thanks for the Bar Chart reference.

Looks like Yahoo! posts changes in the futures chain only a couple of times a day:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=GCX07.CMX

All green lights now.

Hi,

If 1490 holds on a day like today, with really bad news for the financials coming out...then there is really a LOT of support at these levels.

"If 1490 holds on a day like today, with really bad news for the financials coming out...then there is really a LOT of support at these levels."

The Fed has an unlimited supply of "money". The bears don't have printing presses.

GOOG and RIMM still solidly green- on days like this being in a momentum stock can make "buy high and sell higher" look good..although my bet is 2 months from now you don't want to be the guy who bought GOOG at 730...

may not even want to be the guy who bought Citi at 35...

Telestar, here is the earnings site I use:

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

(Briefing.com)

Citi's 135 billion L3 assets do not include the the off balance sheet SIV's that have been reported to be over 70 billion. A few billion here, a few billion there pretty soon were talking some real money!

Either things are not as bad as they appear on paper or the market is seriously oblivious. We are still only 5% or so off all time highs here.

BX,ok found the answer to my question.

Q. What is Blackstone's dividend policy?
A. The Blackstone Group will pay quarterly distributions beginning in the fourth quarter of 2007. As stated in our prospectus, through the end of 2009 distributions will be allocated so that public unitholders will receive a minimum annualized distribution of $1.20 per share before any distributions are made to our other equity owners. Our intention is to distribute substantially all of our adjusted cash flow from operations in excess of amounts determined by our management to be needed to run and grow the business.

Thanks, writersblock & MikeNYC

RIMM's down...can GOOG keep the 'Q' up by itself?

Key inflection for market beginning to form. Watching the close carefully.

FranSix,
Barchart is good. britefutures.com will let you chart all sorts of contract spreads, within chains and across. I actually am very intrigued the Rough Rice/Silver spread and am watching that as a potential signal. As usual, the big problem is that it is not possible to calculate with, or compare to, the cash prices.

Hi,

Yes, the today's close will be key.

I notice that gold, oil, equity and EUR are all down.

Keep my eyes on the ball...

BHP and RTP down 6% each. These are the largest mining companies in the world. Big drop!

2nd_ave,

How are you playing QID ahead of CSCO earnings? Just curious.

One of the stocks on my watchlist, PGR.V, is performing well. They had a recent massive sulphide discovery in Nfld.

I used to own PGR.V after RMX.TO split into 3 companies. RMX took a dive, PGR.V doubled, and AFR.TO never took off. I sold all three without a loss, but kept PGR.V on my watchlist. They joint ventured their gold properties and went into base metals.

With the action in RMX split, I had decided to concentrate on gold. My two base metals/gold picks went up, but I had sold by that time. My gold pick has languished even though they had some of the best high grades reported last year.

apparently GOOG has no problem dragging an entire index up by itself...

Reading that PetroChina is now a 1 Trillion dollar company. Could someone please explain to me how a gov't (parent company) could own 86% of the shares and investors not feel wary about that? I feel a serious lack in my understanding about this.

I'm starting to think there's too much negative sentiment out there for the indexes to drop much further. If you look back at the crash of 2000, hardly anyone was negative. It was go, go, go. And we all know what happened. This is time to use the knowledge we have against HB&B. If we expect the market to go down, they'll push it up and squeeze out our shorts. If we expect it to go up they'll short and sell it down. Remember who has most of the money sloshing around this casino. Also, volume is substantially lower than Wed-Fri last week.

Just a thought. What do you all think?

Rob.

Let the Q's go 2nd, they will go sooner or later but the financials will lead the way down.

I'm just just buying the SKF pullbacks and a little SDS and DXD. The Q's can win longer than I can lose.

Also nibbling on the forbidden fruit of FXI at today's low. I'm betting the bulls try to charge the close.

"How are you playing QID ahead of CSCO earnings?"

A lot can happen in two trading sessions, so i'm going to play it by ear...(original thesis was that once things started to wind down, it would go downhill fast and there would be minimal risk with a buy-and-hold on the ultrashorts...now it feels like the place is half-empty but the stragglers want to keep it going any way they can)..

Anyone doubt that the powers that be don't want the market to break critical support? The save the day rallies are incredibly predictable.

I've been thinking that since stock index futures selling (portfolio insurance!) contributed significantly to the crash of 87 that someone has figured out that stock index buying can prevent a crash.

gecko/ re muni bonds.

Here's an explanation of current Supreme Court case Kentucky vs Davis on muni bond tax exemption
http://tinyurl.com/2p2s97

If you are buying Muni's, due dilligence is required just as with buying stocks. Revenue based bonds carry additional risk... unless they are water or sewer. I avoid big cities and tend to seek out regional intrastate offerings which don't carry the huge debt load of the larger big city bonds. Schools in one-employer towns are also riskier if a problem develops with the dominant payer. Insurance would probably be worthless in a big pinch as the bond insurers carry little reserves to back their insured products.

Single bonds are better than bond funds due to OPM syndrome plus fund fees and funds leverage which can exacerbate losses if bad bets were made.

I personally used a lot of proceeds from selling out of the stockmarket in 2001 pre-crash to buy Munis during the interest rate spike during that time frame. I was able to lock in rates of 5-5.75%
which has served me well for my income portfolio.
Now the pain comes when one of these bonds gets called.

moab, no doubts here. Every time the S&P tests 1490, the more important it becomes as a key support level.

Hi,

This is not a free market.

astral, thanks for that muni update. There are few places left that don't have risk. Cash is trash and everything else is toxic. I generalize here but it's close to reality.

To those looking for realtime data feeds, charts, etc, I was referred to Thinkorswim.com.

It is a brokerage (been around about 10 years) aligned with "the rest of us", although targetted to advanced options traders and has great functionality, extremely advanced charting capabilties, very low fees etc.

What surprised me was how they also make things easy for beginners like myself - without risk to my money.
Example: I opened an account without depositing money or shares and gained full access to all the tools available - both web based and desktop. Obviously I could not make trades, but their practice program provided the same level of access as does the main trading tool. It is basically the full program with fake money.
Aside from a way to learn the program, it provides an ongoing test bed for trading ideas. I have yet to make my first real trade, and am just now (after about 2 weeks of "playing" with the tools and site) starting the transfer of my shares to fund the account. During my playtime, I have used technical support, called up their trading desk asking questions on various topics, and without fail the support has been great.

I suspect, however, that the really active traders will get WWWAAAAYYYY more than I can explain out the resources available.

cheers!

Anyone have any thoughts on UXG?

I take it....it has to stop at "0"...correct?

This is the last time I ever try to catch a falling knife or "run with scissors"!

With respect to "Tradestation", I like the program! The back office support is nill.

Thanks TimG.

number2son/moab -

Unless the S&P breaks out from the bearish wedge under formation (with a break above 1,430ish), the 1,490 level risks providing increasingly more fragile (albeit more and more symbolic Alamo-like) support. Whatever the reason for today's comeback, it reversed a slow lunch-time drift (on lighter volume) that landed softly once more on support. No violent sell-off, but a violent response that matches buying interest that has been (conveniently? for some) appearing after lunch for one+ week.

Since Oct. highs, every test of this support has occurred on an overextended sell-off move with decreasing volume. Reason for comfort or are we too impatient for a resolution? Would a morning test of the support (with European traders in action) validate the market stabilization at these levels or force a decisive breach?

craig- you may be right...on the other hand, i'm not convinced that HB&B wants to prop this market up, or that it is able to...

if i were sitting at the top and wanted to extend the bull, i would actually take it down for awhile and give it a rest...

also wondering how many market drops the "powers that be" have been able to avert...

to be honest, still think the market goes down...even if the broad market is "oversold," don't think i would place AAPL/GOOG/RIMM in that category...

Walgreen's looks good at this level as it tests the breakout level. If it makes a higher low on the daily I am a buyer.

Thinking about good ways to play the commercial real estate sector short.

Any trade ideas for discussion?

Telstar -

People say support from Tradestation and IB is a problem.

I've always been quite amazed by the support at clunky old Telechart. If they put you on hold, the music is jazz! - Phone techs are good on simple stuff; their "ask a trainer" msg. board always seems to come up with the answer, overnight.

Who'da thunk it ... (And now they have "blocks player" an interesting new package.

Moab - Only thing about WAG is that they hit 45 in early '01, and really only ever hit about 48 after that. Mostly in a trading range from 8/05 to now. If it hit 48 again from here, that would be about 25% gain, but isn't WAG unlikely to break a high in effect for nearly 6 years? Could be a solid double, but not a likely home run.

Does anyone use TradeFreedom here and would care to kindly comment on their service for stocks, options and mutual fund transactions.

Altamira is no more. This is the company owned by the National Bank that had invested in ABCP and whose existence I have been wondering out loud here. It will in fact soon cease to exist as an independent entity, so I am looking for another home for some accounts currently with both Altamira Investments and Altamira Securities. Thanks.

Jock, I was originally with Windows on Wall (WOW) Street, who was bought out by Tradestation (TS) a long time ago. It has always amazed me why they TS would treat their current customers so bad and spend millions on advertising to acquire new customers.

Part of the problem I think is that their philosophy is that current customers will eventually blow-out, so who cares. I can say with near certainty that that is the thinking of futures brokers.

In my way of thinking, I say, let's make the customer experience as great as possible and grow through customer satisfaction and advertising.

Prior to WOW, I tried Telechart, but it just was not for me. I'm sure it’s much improved since then. Block trading information is always an interesting concept to me in combination with chart interpretation.

Thanks for sharing.

Did anyone see the dow shoot up 70 points in 3 minutes at 3:04pm? What was that all about?

Jock -

In this market environment I will take 25% gain in a solid Cara 100 company.

Also, WAG is a baby-boomer growth story. They intend to double the number of stores, which are extremely well run IMO. When it breaks 48 it will run. I just don't see many other opportunities in this environment where the risk/reward is favorable, excepting the small cap explorers.

I don't deny the existence of the PPT but I have a hard time going along using them as the reason for every market bounce or everytime we think the market 'should' go down but alas doesn't.

What I think is more believable is the psychology of market participants who hold the belief that the Fed will rescue things before they get too bad, the so called "Greenspan Put", now the "Bernake Put".

Why should they not believe it? The Put is real and it's working, or has worked. I believe the time will come, possibly soon where these same participants will realize that problems cannot be resolved by srinkling money on these issues. Until that realization happens the market has a bid. TOMO's and Fed injections are not manipulations, though Kaimu may disagree with me :) Buying index opitions would be but that isn't going on.

I just am not sure how instructive it is to talk about manipulation as frequently as it's mentioned. Let's be honest too if they were so good at manipulating the market how could anyone explain the 2000-2003 bear market. I think most in here use manipulation tongue in cheek, but some may not understand this.

Just something I wanted to get off my chest. Not harm intended to anyone :)

Moab - Interesting. You're saying that what has held WAG from breaking out above 48 in past is transformed by the aches&pains of aging boomers. You may be right. I'll be glad to stand corrected! One thing I have noticed is WAG stores seem consistently clean and well run. And, there's almost always a line at checkout.

moab re: WAG

FYI, Friday's (Weekend) business section of the USA Today had an article about lawsuit(s) vs WAG for issuance of prescriptions without proper instruction resulting in death. Bad publicity which may offer an opportunity especially after a judgement one way or the other.

On the other hand, recall hearing WMT's foray into prescriptions has been stealing market share from WAG.

geckojb -

I understand your point and agree to an extent. I don't like to point to intervention as the cause of certain market movements but the rallies off 1490 just seem so predictable in an otherwise entirely unpredictable market.

The reason I think there is more manipulation now is because of the vast amounts of leverage any significant decline would lead to margin selling, as in August, that would then beget more margin selling. Those banks and hedge funds can't sell their CDO's so they need to be able to sell their other assets at a decent price. They are in the horrible situation of having to sell what they can, not what they want to.

At least that is my take.

********WGW***********

Press Release Source: Western Goldfields Inc.

Western Goldfields Approved for American Stock Exchange Listing
Monday November 5, 4:34 pm ET

TORONTO, Nov. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Western Goldfields Inc. (TSX:WGI, OTC BB:WGDFF.OB) today announced that its common shares have been approved for listing on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX).

The Company's shares are expected to begin trading on the AMEX on Thursday, November 8, 2007, under the symbol "WGW". Until then, the Company's shares will continue to trade under the symbol WGDFF.OB on the OTC Bulletin Board.

Moab

I see where you are coming from with the predictability of rallies off of the S&P support area of 1490. Think about this from a risk perspective though. How certain are you each time that the S&P gets close to 1490, that a rally will ensue? Certain enough to leverage a large amount of your capital to take advantage of the bounce? My point is, the bounce is predictable until it isn't.

RE S&P 500 support 1490 area

I agree there seems to be lots of activity in this area. If you look at the chart below this area has been both support and resistance more than once and if broken I agree things could get very slippery.

On an intraday basis I see the same thing happening with the test, retest, then rally starts then things take off, till they reverse again. My take is alot of this happens with computer program trading with large leverage on a daytrading basis. I could be wrong but I have the feeling there several large organizations with dollars who are playing this game.

Note for interest I included the same chart but in Canadian dollars, this is what I would see happening to my S&P 500 investment, if I was in it. Same product but just change the location of the investor and totally different chart and outcome.

http://tinyurl.com/3ancpx

eom

Telstar3d - I was referring to Worden's new program "blocks player". It is very flexible, modular, and allows for much more customization than Telechart.

Does anyone find it odd that we keep on getting these 3pm surges in the US indices on no apparent news? Is this unusual?

Great news on WGW! Thank you astral25 for the info...somehow I skip on this news today when it became public.

Question: What do we expect very short term? Is this news already priced in? Any predictions?

Mab said "Those banks and hedge funds can't sell their CDO's so they need to be able to sell their other assets at a decent price. They are in the horrible situation of having to sell what they can, not what they want to".

Yes, but this is not illegal or manipulative, it's simply called the breaks or more technically know as "up shi_s creek without a paddle".

Bill-I have been a reader of your blog since you expressed some of your thoughts and emotions after the passing of your mother and father on your blog. I said to myself that you weren't afraid to express your feelings, extremely knowledgeable, and obviously had a mission. Well since then, I have seen your mission (this blog) become an enormous success, and getting better everyday.
Your story about Dines:
"Dines and I are friends from years back. He inscribed his book for me, "Remember New Orleans!". I'd like to but it was 3am at Paddy Obriens. It seems to conjure up images of two guys on their hands and knees crawling past a TSX VP sitting alone at the long bar inside the front door, when I heard the words, "Cara, is that you?"

James and I had finished dinner with Bob Friedland earlier that evening and decided we would then try to visit as many places in the French Quarter before sun up. I don't recall why we were on the floor.

Needless to say, James is quite a character, while I am almost always reserved. LOL"

This story is just one of the reasons why I read your blog. You're brutally honest and not afraid to have some fun in life. Would love to have a cold one with you some day. You are truly a great person, you give so much to so many people, many who you have never met, but who come back everyday to learn from your life's experiences, whether that is trading the market or seeing how many "fine establishments" you can visit before sun up...great story.
Ray

BobbyV:

Another source for realtime charts is ADVFN
http://www.advfn.com/
They provide decent charts and studies for only $6.00 per month. It's hard to beat for the price, but they do have a lot of popup ads.

Toby

hoong- great site for the SSE...about 15-20 minutes ahead of yahoo->now down 1.5%...

geckojb -

A conspiracy to boost the price of assets that you intend (and desperately need) to sell is indeed illegal. This is the potential motive. Not to make this accusation but it would not surprise me.

OK, no more discussion of manipulation from me. Even if it exists it is part of the playing field we are on.

The Feds Newest Chief Is A Wuss:

http://tinyurl.com/3yr9na

You tell 'em, Jim.

from the San Mateo Journal- Tom Perkins (of Kleiner and Perkins fame) sounding off a week before launching his new book (Valley Boy: The Education of Tom Perkins):

http://tinyurl.com/2mhwn9

[Sometimes, he can be brutal, a venture capital colleague said.

Excerpts:

“If you want to stand up to him, you’d better be ready to, A, have your reasoning lined up and, B, be ready for a very emotional confrontation,” said Franklin “Pitch” Johnson, 79, who has known Perkins since the 1970s when they funded Tandem Computers, where Perkins remained deeply involved.]

[He says that when he rejoined the board — for the last time — at Fiorina’s urging in January 2005, the celebrity CEO and the board were struggling over the direction of the company since it acquired Compaq Computer Corp. Fiorina was out a month later and Dunn took over as chairwoman.

“She still doesn’t get it: The day she was fired, the stock went up,” he said of Fiorina. “The employees were in the parking lot singing, ’Ding, Dong, the Witch is Dead.’ And she still doesn’t understand that she bears some responsibility for that. It’s amazing.”]

Hoong -- thanks for the SSE link. Agree w/2nd—great site ahead of yahoo. Now heading back up, still in the green though at -0.27%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the geo-political front: Pakistan Gets My Vote for a Black Swan Event: Frederick Kempe

http://tinyurl.com/3bglnv

----------------------------------------------------------

gecko, astral25 ---- Based on comments at hearing, Court Likely to Keep Muni Bond Tax Break

http://tinyurl.com/38prse

We’ll see what the final opinion reads come next year for confirmation.

2nd, don’t know if you caught it, but Perkins was on 60 minutes last night. That's one heck of a sailboat he sails via total computerization. Hope his hard drive doesn't crash! I assume the interview may be on the CBS website, but I haven’t checked.

Have a good evening!

Managers of money funds may take the hit:

Link: http://tinyurl.com/39n85p

"Thinking about good ways to play the commercial real estate sector short.

Any trade ideas for discussion?"

How about SRS, the double-inverse of IYR (iShares REIT)