In order to measure the gold basis, I wake up every morning after a very long night of watching youtube videos on aviation and look at it myself without a chart. There is an aviation craze in vintage and radio controlled aircraft in YouTube.

I managed to completely crash my iMac OS doing this, so be advised the permissions in the Mac OS have a fault when using shockwave flash as a third party plug-in within a browser.(Or rather the shockwave flash within Netscape isn't perfect.)

The way to overcome any serious problems like this, to use the Mac OS install disk as your boot up disk. The Mac hardware will work regardless, so you can still insert a CD prior to shutdown. Restart the Mac and hold down the "D" Key, and you will see an automated technical programme that analyzes the hardware. Run the diagnostic, and it will reset whatever problem caused the software failure.

Then go into Disk Fix in the utilities and verify and repair the permissions, you will see that most of the permissions that were corrupted and caused an OS failure will be repaired.

The jobs numbers came in higher than expected (although the overwhelming number of new jobs were in the service sector, and manufacturing and housing jobs decreased). This has immediately sent futures higher. Up about 7.5 as I write.

Get ready for another volatile day in the markets, folks.

The employment report was surprisingly strong.
I posted a chart illustrating GDP growth vs the Prime Rate. It suggests more room for interests
rates to drop, though.

to the other bank meltdown watchers: i figured SKF was up yesterday roughly 2,920% on an annualized basis.

The employment report is the same lie they're telling us with all data points, employment, inflation, degree of dislocation and losses in the banking and investment houses, etc, etc, etc.

I think we get a pop and then the realization that the "strong" employment numbers means we may not see a Dec. cut sets in and the market sells off.

We are still at least 15,000 jobs under a growing economy, and a good portion of those are burger flippers demoted from carpenter.

Except for a small holding of the yellow metal I'm in cash for good or bad....

Hulbert redux on whether Thursday's rate cut will ultimately prove inflationary:

http://tinyurl.com/2t9hgx

Excerpts:

[For help in deciphering the bond market's reaction, I called Dan Seiver, editor of the PAD System Report newsletter. Seiver is an emeritus professor of economics at Miami University of Ohio and currently a visiting professor of economics and finance at San Diego State University.

Seiver said he believes that the bond market's immediate reaction to the Fed decision, when long-term rates rose, is the one to which we should pay attention when assessing what it thinks the rate cut means. That would mean that the bond market is saying that lower short-term rates will have long-term inflationary consequences.

He says that the big decline in long-term rates that occurred on Thursday was caused by something else entirely: The flight to safety that took place in the wake of the plunging stock market.

Seiver acknowledged that another implication of his interpretation is that the bond market's reaction on Wednesday afternoon is more to be believed than the stock market's. But he thinks that is indeed the case. The bond market, he says, "never wears rose colored glasses. The stock market, in contrast, often does. And it took them off today, and that triggered a knee-jerk flight to safety."

The bottom line, for Seiver: The bond market is losing confidence in the Fed's credentials as an inflation fighter.]

Next move in rates may be flat to up...

The bond market, he says, "never wears rose colored glasses."

I don't believe this. You could see price inflation coming a year or two ago.

Canadian Top Dividend Growers;

From Globe Investor Gold(approx 2 weeks ago)

This list of companies have NEVER missed a dividend and have actually Increased their dividend for the past ten years.
These stocks are a no brainer using Bills Rsi,Macd,A/D etc.Besides,if u get it wrong...collect the dividend ! and wait for it to turn around.

tck.b, snc, tih, cnr ,sjr.b , ret.a , emp.a, mru.a, bns , cwb
ry, td, agf.b, igm, pow, fly.a, pwf,gwo, bpo, eca

Long: pow,ret.a(as of Oct.31/07)
closed position in tih Nov01/07 after a 20 % pop in two days

Burger builders instead of Bilderbergers? Holy CRAP! Reality is about to set in!

Interesting....

There's a 4.11 bid for 6000 WGDFF in the level II.
The ask is 4.07

"The US economy has fallen and can’t get up"

Bill............ Very Funny ! ! !

.................LOL.............

This is a little confusing. Strong job report should imply rates won't come down, why is the USD down?

Anybody else shorting UNG here?

craig- "Except for a small holding of the yellow metal I'm in cash for good or bad...."

i've never known you to take an imprudent position, so i'm sure cash is not bad...

glad to see you took profits on TM..

Speaking of Google Finance - I am working on a gadget that computes rsi values...I should be done in a few days.

2nd,
Many Thanks my friend. Sold the TM yesterday and like they say, oh what a feeling!
Many, many thanks to Bill.

I have taken imprudent positions in the past, but those days are over! I even put a sell on gld at the right price and got taken out this AM near the high. Did get a little SKF but not too much and it's going my way.

Good luck to you and all today!

Loving the MER action.

Denny,

Looks like no "dead bank bounce" today. Glad I only sold about 25% of my SKF, couldn't resist locking in some profit.

Live and learn.

new 52 wk low for XLF.....

"Merrill Lynch has engaged in deals with hedge funds to delay when it had to record losses on risky mortgage-backed securities, and the Securities and Exchange Commission has started a probe looking at how Wall Street is valuing mortgage securities"
,"...in one deal, a hedge fund bought $1 billion in commercial paper issued by a Merrill-related entity containing mortgages"" In exchange, the hedge fund had the right to sell back the commercial paper to Merrill ... In recent weeks, Merrill has been scrambling to line up hedge funds to take as much as $5 billion in mortgage-related securities, people close to the situation said, the report added. " http://tinyurl.com/32orls

BMO also down, this one is suspected of having multibillions invested in junk that will soon need to appear on the balance sheet.

Trend Portfolio

Seeing opportunity to short DB FITB LEH and MU. Financials seem to be on a downward track.

http://tinyurl.com/yoe5j2 - Portfolio
http://tinyurl.com/34tqpz - Forecasts

I'm getting that August 16th kind of feeling.

Bill,
Your daily comments are the best. Your enthusiasm and optimism are inspiring and infectious.

Every time the dollar drops we get automatic inflation, since everything we buy is from elsewhere. And most things we make here like food, are more expensive because of the corn(ethanol) supply/demand imbalance. With the amount of treasuries that foreigners hold, it's a huge slap to them every time Ben and Paulson cut rates or flood liquidity into the system to save their buddies who made greedy decisions. When will the breaking point come? When will the foreigners see other bonds as a better investment? If there ever is serious dumping of treasuries like that I would think the dollar would go below 50 against other currencies. Then you'll see great-depression-like inflation. We need our leaders to recognize these facts and to start working for America and not for their own greed. Like Bill says people aren't going to accept "wooden nickels" for much longer.

By the way, Yesterday I shorted GS. Looking pretty good now but hoping for more. I'm also looking at the Jan 2009 calls for Crox. I haven't jumped yet though. I'm hoping to by the middle of next week.

Rob.

Aug 16th had two very different feelings: before and after the bottom !

SiO2 -

Could it be European investors selling some of their equity exposure this morning? Equity down, dollar down...

JML

Anyone know a site that reports daily on ABX, situation of the "superfund", etc.?

These issues seem to go away from the biz press for a few weeks, and then come back with a vengeance.

FT reports, and opines sporadically, but WSJ doesn't give these (rather critical) unfolding issues much attention at all .... until the next mini-crisis.

"I'm getting that August 16th kind of feeling."

August 16th most of us were at least partially long and looking to buy...now most of us are short and looking to press the short side..."Oh what a feeling.." ;)

Here are some quotes from an article in Forbes today.

"When bond markets froze up in August and September, it became impossible for Wall Street to put a value on billions of securities on their books. That doesn't even speak to the assets they have off balance sheets that potentially might have to come back on.

Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) classified $72 billion of assets, 15.6% of its trading inventory, as "level 3" in the third quarter, which means it couldn't come up with any way to price them using market data. Morgan Stanley (nyse: MS - news - people ) has 15% of its trading assets in the level 3 category, Bear Stearns (nyse: BSC - news - people ) 12.6% and Lehman 12.3%, according to research by Sanford Bernstein.

Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ), which wrote down more than $8 billion of assets in the third quarter, has yet to disclose its level 3 numbers, but they are certain to increase substantially over the second quarter, said Bernstein analyst Brad Hintz. Ditto for Citi.

Merrill still has $15 billion of collateralized debt obligations on its books, which is not good, according to Hintz. "We do not believe Merrill will be able to offload these assets in the near future," he wrote in a research note. "With virtually no available liquidity in this market, these assets will likely face negative pricing pressure as the supply of these assets will likely outpace demand.

A so-called "superfund" designed to alleviate the pressure on certain off-balance-sheet investment conduits (Citi has among the biggest individual exposures, at $80 billion to $100 billion) organized by Citi, JPMorgan Chase (nyse: JPM - news - people ) and Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ), seems to be struggling to get off the ground."

Seems like there's more "surprises" coming from these banks and brokerages. I read a few months ago that the amount of derivatives out there equal 7 times the amount of money in the world. What I wonder is how many of the derivatives are CDO's and other mortgage-backed securities? Could all these banks and brokerages be holding so many of them that they are bankrupt right now?

For the record nothing would make me happier than seeing no one buying the shares of that "Superfund" if it launches. For once they wouldn't be able to offload their worthless paper to the next gullible sucker. It would be great.

Rob.

"Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends/We're so glad you could attend/come inside,
come inside..."

Happy Birthday, Keith Emerson. How fitting.

And Marie Antionette. And Warren G. Harding.

Today is: All Souls Day, Day of the Dead, Plan Your Epitaph Day.

Shark, those GSX numbers didn't come out so good. But the share price is holding up. I'm not saying anything, I'm just saying....

Jock,
Suggestion: We discussed Google Alerts yesterday.

Set one or three for the terms you mentioned. You'll begin to get links to lots of publications, blogs, etc., and after about a week you'll see who is sending out the most, highest quality article links. That will be the one you want to pay attention to. Or just let Google bring them to you.

That's how I found out about the very nice RigZone site. And who knew there was a comprehensive full-coverage site called sugaronline.com? (Today's headline: "What's all the fuss with India's raw sugar exports?" and hey, how about that EU sugarbeet news? Explosive!)

Does anyone have an opinion on CEF as an alternative to buying bullion direct and or information about potential CIBC (the custodian of their bullion)exposure to the derivative mess?

my biggest worry regarding the canadian gold miners (XGD) at this point is their reluctance to rise the past few weeks w/ the POG, they seem to get pulled just a bit higher with big moves in gold, but fall very fast with tiny downward drops in the POG.

should gold correct to the low $700's, im thinking the XGD will get clobbered.

when do the gold shares do better than the POG?
the canadian miners havent proved to be better over the past 2 years now.

barf, i wish there was a liquid gld for canadian $$.

Jock, RE: ABX: Calculated Risk has a daily report and chart on the ABX. Scroll down for yesterday's.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

Jock - oops, looks as if they're not going to be posting it every day now. Sorry.

Has your thinking regarding XLF close <31.28 changed?

REUTERS WRAPUP 2-AngloGold shuts mine; SAfrica miners strike looms [HJPWFJM]
By James Macharia

JOHANNESBURG, Nov 2 (Reuters) - AngloGold Ashanti Ltd shut one of its larger mines in South Africa on Friday after a miner was killed in a rock-fall, as a miners' strike to protest against a spate of mine deaths in the country loomed.

AngloGold, the world's third-biggest gold producer, shut its TauTona mine after the worker died in the early hours of Friday.

The NUM, the nation's biggest miners union, said it had set a date for the strike, but could not divulge it as it did not yet have a permit yet for the strike, and has termed the recent deaths at mines "genocide". [nL02245443].

"The entire mine is closed, it is not working at the moment," AngloGold's spokesman Steve Lenahan told Reuters.

GOLD FIELDS SHAFT OPEN

Gold Fields , which halted production in its number 4 shaft at its Kloof mine on Wednesday after two workers were killed in an explosion, said it had on Friday morning re-started 80 percent of the operations at the affected shaft.

Gold Fields, the world's fourth biggest gold producer, had said it would lose 15 kg daily at the shut operation at Kloof, the firm's second-biggest gold mine, which would be at full production on Monday, spokesman Andrew Davidson told Reuters.

The strike, which would be the first ever national industrial action over safety issues by the NUM, could cripple mining companies in South Africa, the world's biggest producer of platinum and gold. The country supplies three quarters of global platinum and 12 percent of gold.

The NUM has been walking a legal minefield to check whether legislation covers such an action. For instance, companies which have not had major safety issues also would be hit by a strike.

Lesiba Seshoka, NUM's spokesman said: "As soon as we have all our documents in order we will call the strike."

Platinum hit a record last month on supply jitters after Anglo Platinum , the world's top producer, shut three shafts at its biggest mine after a worker was killed.

JP Morgan said in a research note it feared safety issues could hurt the rating of South African gold shares, and urged the government to stop routinely ordering deep-level mines to temporarily close as this might make problems even worse.

Is it me or is the USD RSI signaling a buy in CAD?

http://tinyurl.com/2ldnnn

Probably just me... China must be selling reserves left & right.

LOL! Since I'm in cash I get to press the downside on the little pops (Aug 16th AM feeling) holding skf and I'm prepared to get in when the other boot falls....of which the possibility is directly proportional to HB&B's greed. A sure thing if there ever was one.

Ben just extends the pain now.

Anymore I would almost bet the house on greed and these folks are the greediest.

Level 3 storm about to hit Wall Street
By Martin Hutchinson

"Goldman Sachs has disclosed its Level 3 assets, two quarters before it would be compelled to do so in the period ending February 29, 2008. Their total was $72 billion, which at first sight looks reasonable because it is only 8% of total assets. However the problem becomes more serious when you realize that $72 billion is twice Goldman's capital of $36 billion. In an extreme situation therefore, Goldman's entire existence rests on the value of its Level 3 assets. "

"There has been no rush to disclose Level 3 assets in advance of the first quarter in which it becomes compulsory, probably that ending in February or March 2008. Figures that have been disclosed show Lehman with $22 billion in Level 3 assets, 100% of capital, Bear Stearns with $20 billion, 155% of capital, and J P Morgan Chase with about $60 billion, 50% of capital. However those figures are almost certainly low; the border between Level 2 and Level 3 is a fuzzy one and it is unquestionably in the interest of banks to classify as many of their assets as possible as Level 2, where analysts won't worry about them, rather than Level 3, where analyst concern is likely. "

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK03Dj03.html

On October 26, I posted the following:

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Oct. 26, 2007) - MacDonald Mines Exploration Ltd. (the "Company")(TSX VENTURE:BMK) proposes to complete a brokered private placement, with IBK Capital Corp. ("IBK") acting as agent, for gross proceeds of $10,000,000, such offering to be completed through the sale of 25,000,000 units of the Company (the "Offering"). A total of 15,625,000 units of the Company will be sold on a "hard dollar" basis (the "Hard Units") at a price of $0.40 per Hard Unit for gross proceeds of $6,250,000. A further 9,375,000 units of the Company will be sold on a flow-through basis (the "FT Units") at price of $0.40 per FT Unit for gross proceeds of $3,750,000. Each Hard Unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant (the "Hard Warrants").
BMK is currently trading at 86 cents.

We have since learned that the buyers included Rob McEwen and Pinetree Capital. The price today of BMK is still 86 cents. This leaves me questioning, "Why do Rob McEwen and Pinetree get to buy shares of BMK at 40 cents (they also get warrants) while the rest of us have to pay 86 cents for the same shares on the same day?"

Dr. Cosa,

the issue with the Canadian miners is the measuring stick.

For example, Goldcorp on the TSX, up less than 10% YTD, GOldcorp on the NYSE, up over 30% YTD.

See http://tinyurl.com/yvwsgt

Boy, the bulls don't go down easy over at the nasdaq. They still think large cap tech is the bomb.

My screen is red except for those still on the floor dancing....XAU, GLD, SLW, XLE, EWC. WGDFF and GFI are off their game and I think warn of the band getting ready to take a break.

BubbleVision Update,

Robert Reich just accused Larry Kudlow of being out of his mind.

'bout time somebody said it. :^)

Re. Aug. 16 feeling?

Not close IMO. More like sometime late July/early August when new headlines seemed to pop re. the Bear funds, the quant fund debacle...

Today's does not have the panic selling intensity or even a strong downside determination. Almost as if the bear is wary of another failure to break 1,490 and the winded bull is fighting this morning with tech to keep from coming too close. The recipe for a worrisome weekend would be a strong assault toward the support starting @ 1:30p, a failure to bounce of 1,490 between 2:00p and 3:00p, and a decisive break to 1,480 in the last hour.

JML

Jock,

Calculated Risk keeps their eye on ABX frequently:

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/abx-and-cmbx-indices.html

I just looked at the AAPL daily and its shows signs of exhaustion. If the tech leaders like AAPL, GOOG, and RIMM roll over, the Naz could fall hard.

But it's still too soon for me to put any money on this outlook.

Barrick Tgt Raised To US$48 From US$37 By National Bk >ABXLast update: 11/2/2007 9:27:07 AM(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 02, 2007 09:27 ET (13:27 GMT)

writersblock,

Beat me to the post.

BubbleVision Update,

Robert Reich just accused Larry Kudlow of being out of his mind.

'bout time somebody said it. :^)

"But it's still too soon for me to put any money on this outlook."

number2son,

Wish I'd have come to that conclusion, several points ago. Underwater QID without a snorkel.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the body (the general market) follow the head (financials), sooner or later? Can the market ultimately go up without financials?
Can tech alone lead the markets?

dr.cosa-when do the gold shares do better than the POG?

Gartman said yesterday on Bloomberg TV that before the Gld ETF whoever wanted to invest in gold mainly purchased gold shares. Now they have the option of investing in Gld and this removes a lot of pressure from the mining share prices. This makes a lot of sense to me.

Today on Bloomberg Jim Rogers said when asked what he would do if he were Bernanke, answered he would disband the Fed and fire himself. If only.

bb,

Please be advised that posting very large links to this space makes reading for some participants difficult.

Any time you want to post a link, simply paste it to the page at http://www.tinyurl.com in order to shorten it.

F6

craig, or how about this question, what does it mean when gold is going up and the general market is going down?

Denny,

Its a bit of a cliché, but the Dow has declined against gold since 2000.

This says there is on going deflation, though you would not notice since there is so much money supply growth, and yet wages are stagnant.

The US has benefitted from the global implications of a deflationary boom outside its domestic markets, and has relied on the financial sector to support growth.

Denny,
I'm thinking we are in Bill's end game where the PM's and oil are still going, but soon to go with the general market for a while and give us a chance to reload. Financials are getting killed today (a new low for the XLF) as is most everything else. As I look we are now down over 440 pts on the DOW in a day and a half. Get us below S&P 1490 and I think we see some panic.

I sometimes watch CNBC while getting ready for work. Today, I just witnessed once of the most blatant examples of sell-side pumping by Bob Pisani and Dylan Ratigan (for whom I used to have respect) on behalf of Legg Mason's Bill Miller. To wit Pisani uncritically passed along Miller's advice to buy home builders and financial companies.

Both Pisani and Ratigan neglected to mention that Miller has been holding these stocks from their top in '05 and is losing a TON of money.

Ratigan, shame on him, made the absurd claim that Miller is second only to Warren Buffett in stature as a stock picker.

Regarding CNBC,

Why criticize them when holders of uranium shares are absolutely certain the sky is the limit when they have lost wholesale on their investments and have faith that the market will rebound?

Denney,
Notice F6 has a correct global perspective and timeline while I see just to the end of my nose.

I make no apologies for watching CNBC. I find them to be a valuable resource for stockpicking. You just listen to what they're pumping that day, and do the exact opposite.

"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer." - Sun-tzu

ALOHA !!

Denny ... If you measure the DOW or S&P in gold or even the Euro they've been going down for a long time now! We here in the USA don't see that because the DOW and S&P are denominated in US Pesos!

WOW !!! The Loonie is just clobbering the USD. How soon before Canadians are signing up for shopping tours of big US Malls? Get ready for an influx of Canuck tourists this Summer! Not good for Canadian tourism industry though ... I guess it would even make sense to drive your car to Detroit for a fill-up! When I lived in San Diego I used to go down to Ensenada Mexico surfing every other weekend and I brought big 5gal jerry cans! Even went grocery shopping before I re-entered. Make you bucks in USD and spend them in Pesos. Now the US Dollar is a PESO!! Your tax dollars at work!

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

GOLD SPOT PRICES IN BACKWARDATION THIS MORNING!!!

craig, could it be that gold is decoupling from the broad market?

Fred:

If you look at the trading history of BMK you will see that someone knew what was going to happen on Sept 13th...they told someone and they told someone and so and so on...huge volume....Oct 15th to Oct. 17th the price was driven up to a H of $1.02 ...rumour being confirmed???... Oct.17th to today stock trading sideways. Oct 26th's announcement of the proposed private placement followed by the announcement of the closing of same says it all. If I had known that the buyers of the private placement were who they are I would have jumped in earlier...they seem to be very knowledge investors and risk takers but their track records indicate they do not throw money away...they paid .40 because the company needed the money...they put their OWN money in because I would think they think the company has great potential....you DO NOT have to pay today's price but with those players in the game I believe the company is worth keeping an eye on.

I like companies where the principals put up their own money.

spot gold knocking on $800, kitco charts says
$799.80.....

gold shares at same levels when the POG was at $740... barf!!!

YES!!! SPOT PRICES $800

Golfer,
I agree with you and I like the prospects of BMK. I just don't understand how a company can be allowed to sell shares through a private placement at less than 50% of their market price.

Golfer,
Isn't that action very similar to issuing options at less than the market price? That wouldn't be acceptable.

watching GRMN. It went down because of an overbid concern for tele atlas? At least they are investing in future growth.

RSI 7 = 28.6
RSI 14 = 39
RSI 21. 43.6
http://tinyurl.com/2rove7

What FranSix just said is very important and interested parties will want to watch this.

Denny, kaimu, I've posted a chart of the S&P 2003-2007 in euros vs dollars a couple of times. In fact, I keep a printout on my wall at my desk. They both begin about 900. One ends at roughly around 1550, the other somewhere around 1050. 'Bull' market, indeed.

Fred, don't private placements usually get a discount on the shares? I think I have noticed that.

Sometimes $gold leads, sometimes ^hui leads. Chart it out yourself and see. It's a complicated dance. In fact, you want to play with charting this relationship on many different ways.

http://tinyurl.com/2qhrfz

"Can the market ultimately go up without financials?"

Craig,

Check out the November 1 headline (Just Some Charts) here:

http://attheselevels.com/

Regards.

MikeNYC,
You may be right however, flow-through shares sometimes sell at a higher price than market price because of their tax advantage. Rob McEwen acquired ownership of 6,000,000 flow-through Units. In essence Rob received a gift from the company of at least 6 million shares x .46 or $2.76 million. By the way, I have nothing against Rob McEwen and I am a shareholder in several of his companies. I have also been a shareholder in BMK and expect to be one again.

MikeNYC,
In addition, Rob McEwen received 6 million options which allow him to purchase 3 million shares at 50 cents for two years. That is a gift of 3 million x .36 or just over $1 million if he exercises the warrants.

Thank You BH.
I was just asking myself the question...happy to be in good company. Gotta check out C as a short from that chart.

I think we play it all out really slow as the fed kicks the can and tries to drag this out. Gold sure is frothy here, I wonder if we see a pullback?

Miners are rocking EXCEPT WGDFF?

Sorry, that's warrants not options

RE: Markets

Let's see if this forecast will bear itself out going forward:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/forecast.html#predict_dow

This one will also be indespensable:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/baltic_dry_index_sp500.png

Fred:

BMK was trading in the $.08 area prior to Sept. Then from Sept 4th to early Oct. it traded on volume between 8 and 53 cents. I believe that it was during this time that the price of 40 cents for the private placement was established...you and I could have bought it at that time for the same price as these principals did so they did not get in for half price. That is how I see it.

Don Coxe today says you may as well hold on to your gold investments.

Fred:

I think this BMK deal and price action is a good example of "Buy the rumour and sell the news" and "Some people have more and better information than others."

*NEWS FLASH** WALL STREET KILLS AMERICA'S HOMEOWNERS**

Wall Street has been formally exposed and is criminally culpable in the multi-trillion dollar fraud perpetrated at the expense of America's homeowners. Greenspan didn't do this. Merrill Lynch and comnpany did. Each and every decade Wall Street commits a massive fraud.********Intenet bubble*****Long Term Capital*******Savings and Loan debacle******* Drexel junk bonds.....And now this. Ladies and gentlemen....Introducing.................

THE GREAT MORTGAGE DISASTER OF 2007

Mike,

I don't trade fundamentals. I trade human psychology primarily, and as Bill often says, it's "prices" too. GSX is a spigot in the ground. Look at the website photos. It's a laugher. Exxon Mobile it AINT!

That being said, I'm comfortable about how I bought it (from someone dying to get out at any price), where I bought it on the chart (down above the round number and at a % retracement) and how it's acted since I bought it I am a proud and happy owner of a lonely little pump out in the middle of nowhere.

I'm about to buy Gammon GRS if everything keeps going right. Gold seems to want to go up. Maybe the market's counting on a December cut. Oh and jail cells all around at Merrill. These guys are criminals. Wall Street is killing the American homeowner.

$800 resistance has fallen, the gold basis is still tight, we should move higher.

is there any way to know who is doing all this buying of gold, e.g., is it momentum players or Arab sheiks or...?

Gold to $850

My friends, please indulge me:ABX Nov 40 Call
$5.10 ^ 1.90 (59.37%)I held 10 contracts @3.85 until
11:24:21 11/02/07and sold them for $3.90.

I am so mad and I feel like someone is out to get me.I do this at least once a week.

I will ask again, anyone know of a hypnosis cd I can use to shut down the voice that speaks to me of doom if I don't "just get my money back, because right now is my last chance." It's as though I lose perspective and go on automatic or something.

Thanks for listening. I am shutting this laptop off and going to get something to eat.

love and light are not with me today.

spot silver up 3.4% 14.55 us

Bill,

Sent list of juniors last night. I know you get a ton of emails. Wasn't sure if you received it.

Thanks. jfs

If Gold reaches $850, then it WILL make headlines.

Let the pundits argue amongst themselves how low inflation has benefitted all, especially no wage inflation in the last 30 years, and how crashing house prices are beneficial, that pension funds investing in CDO's made a smart move, how by extension investments have actually lost value compared to ever other country with an appreciating currency.

moneygenie,
I find options utterly mystifying. When you have some free time could you please explain in plain english the options transaction you made? I believe it has something to with buying an option to purchase ABX stock sometime in nov for $40.
Thanks,
Brendan

Anybody near El Segundo? This sounds pretty cool:

==========================================

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Saturday morning (8:30-noon) is your chance to tour the Chevron refinery in El Segundo that so dominates our town's northern end.

The tours are offered once a year and staffed by refinery employees. The ride is an air-conditioned bus, the chatter is that of proud nerds and the landscape is, well, paved and industrial. Lots of glossy handouts, too.

Great for kids, nerds or neighbors who wonder what's on the other side of the fence.

The hydrocarbon economy ain't MBC's favorite thing, but we must admit the refinery is impressive – they'll pitch all the new green stuff they're doing, too.

You must register in advance. Best to call ASAP on Friday.

Phone: (310) 615-3747

Web: www.chevronelsegundo.com

"I find options utterly mystifying"
brendan

Me too!

Hi Brendon / Isaiah,

I found this link very useful for a beginner (such as myself). I've used both links and also Bill's comments for my options trading.

(Good beginner link)
http://www.johnmugarian.com/2005/02/options.html

http://www.billcara.com/options/

-Dave

"anyone know of a hypnosis cd I can use to shut down the voice that speaks to me of doom if I don't "just get my money back, because right now is my last chance." It's as though I lose perspective and go on automatic or something."
moneygenie

BURN me a copy while you are at it !

Reading these posts can be very therapeutic at times. I'm happy to see that I am not alone in making bad trades, For a while there I thought you guys were the ones taking all my profits [and yea...capital too :-) ].

Bill.... I got the "Day Trading For Dummies" book today. Will read it this weekend. Maybe next week I'll be able to hang with you "trading pros"! :-)

http://www.wikinvest.com/

Parker Conrad and Michael Sha, the founders, have raised $2.5 million through venture capital backers. They intend to use this to build up an audience; once established, they will sell advertising. Unlike Jimmy Wales' Wikipedia, this is not intended to be a not-for-profit venture. But the idea is not without its flaws. The biggest is that people will use it to try and spread false information.

Has links to Wikipedia for Options...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_%28finance%29

Moneygenie,
I see you sold your calls near the low of the day. I've made plenty of trades like that with options. I've learned two things. Buying short-term options(this month's expiration) is very risky unless you're sure of a trend. And the time decay makes holding the calls for too long treacherous if the stock moves the wrong way. What I've been doing lately is buying options a couple of months out. Right now I'd buy January 08 or march 08 for short-term plays and Jan 09 and June 09 for longer term plays. You pay more premium but have more time for it to move the way you think it should. It seems like that was my problem with short-term options. I would hit expiration and then a couple of weeks later the stock would be in the money on my expired option.

If you have more money the safest way to use options is to sell puts for stocks you wouldn't mind buying at that price and selling calls against stock you own that you don't mind losing if it gets called away

All of us want to be like my buddy who bought 20 January 2008 $100 Apple calls a year and a half ago for about $12,000 bucks. His position is now worth over 200K. But not everyone has nerves of steel like him.

Rob.

Martin Pring on BNN right now.

Does anyone else think that the BOC, which warned on the high Loonie around 104, must now be in some kind of shock at 107+, where we are now. Will BOC lower rates? I know that gasoline here in Vancouver is cheaper than 6 months ago when oil was $70. Loonie up 35% from March 07. We must have some kind of deflation, particularly on manufactured imports and even if that is only 1/3 of the economy, which would be 10% deflation, plus eastern Canada is hurting. What motivates BOC to encourage the carry trade (who get commodity upside+bond yield) at the expense of Eastern Canada?

Today, WSJ doesn't even mention ABX (index of derivatives linked to subprime debt) but FT does, and it helps make sense of the financials' slide.

FT columnist Gillian Tett writes: "what is really alarming is that the assets which were supposed to be ultra-safe, namely AAA and AA rated tranches of debt, have collapsed in value by 20% and 50% respectively."

She adds that the "enron factor" has auditors fearing lawsuits (a la Enron) insisting that banks establish asset values using ABX - the only visible tool for maket pricing of sub-prime debt.

ABX+"Enron factor" explain MER's writedowns, and the general fear affecting "vast swathes of the financial system, which have not been touched by the full blast of transparency."

Thanks to the FT (and no thanks to the pre-Murdoch WSJ) I'm getting an understanding of the breadth of this mess.

Note: FT.com newly allows 30 articles/mo. to be accessed for free; just register. It's worth your while!

Let WDGFF go today taking 75% profit. Looks like their July ’08 effective hedge price of $801 is already behind the POG, although a pullback in the near future would not surprise. (Backwardation acknowledged)

Another decent move (+6.5%) today by oil services co. GLBL. (Small long position).

Nice IPO day for TNDM. No position.

Have a lot of cash on the sidelines now with account at or near all time high. Will be patient for opportunities.

Will be interesting to see how the emergency weekend meeting for Citibank turns out—more disclosures anyone?

Anyone looking for a California home---Found this link on Trader Mike: Over 1000 bank owned homes to be auctioned off in Southern California (Nov 3 - 11)

http://tinyurl.com/36y2ef

Denny Phelps wrote:

>The bond market, he says, "never wears rose >colored glasses."
>
>I don't believe this. You could see price >inflation coming a year or two ago

The people who don't wear rose colored glasses are those who make right decision. A right decision is the most logical decision in the face of the available information -- it is NOT the decision that guesses the outcome. If you are offered to play a game, where for $1 you can win $100 with probability 0.5 and lose your $1 with probability 0.5, then the right decision is to participate in this game. If you happen to lose your $1, you decision to participate was still right! Many illogical things have happened in the market during the last couple of years (e.g., some homebuilder stocks doubled between July 06 and May 07, when it was obvious that the housing situation is getting worse every month). The bond market is using more logic than the stock market, and even if it is not guessing the future all the time, the bond traders are making decisions that are more "right." At some point I figured out that the same applies to Bill, and I respect him greatly for this -- he tells us the logical things to do, and even if the market does not always behave immediately the way Bill predicts, I have observed that eventually the market confirm's Bill's predictions, and knowing that, anyone on this blog can make a lot of money by listening to Bill and waiting patiently for the market to do the logical thing.

Returning to the bond market issue, since no one among us knows the future, the right decision for us is to use as much logic as possible and use bond market's predictions when we take positions.

Truly wierd. Got the open and ensuing sell-off right, but the afternoon rally and strength in PM's surprised me too. I guess my answer to Denny is that gold uncoupled today. Monday is anyone's guess, but so far the mo looks to be with gold.
I have a little WGDFF in the IRA and did alright trading the SKF but otherwise all cash.

It doesn't appear they have anything left for the USD Bill. The only thing that might give us a break is a weakening Euro for some reason or a world emergency of some kind that usually results in USD strength for a time. Otherwise all I see is PM caboose!

As a follow-up to my previous post, here is another example of making right decisions. Bill suggests selling stocks whose RSI drops below 70. Do these stocks sometimes bounce back up and continue going higher? Sure. However, since no one knows the future, our decisions should be based on *mathematical expectation* of the future, which is computed as the sum over all possible outcomes of the profit you get in an outcome multiplied by the probability of that outcome. The stocks whose RSI falls below 70 are more likely to continue going down, and if you keep holding them, then on average you will lose more money long-term than what you will gain if you hold these stocks and they go up for some time. Therefore, in the absense of any additional information, I agree with Bill that the right decision is to sell a stock whose RSI drops below 70.

Something to play with over the weekend, if you feel like it. Maybe after the Pats game turns into a rout or something.

I have to find the best free trading aids. I can't afford a fancy platform, data feeds and charting packages.

Here's an interesting one:

You can download and use the NinjaTrader trading platform for free. It can be configured to use Yahoo finance as a data source.

Now, you will pretty much be stuck with end of day or very delayed data. And you can't trade with the free version. But for daily and weekly setups, it's great. It also has a huge variety of packaged indicators, and a programming language to to add more.

You can't execute trades, but you can use the extensive charting to do analysis.

Anyway, it's kind of fun, it's free, and it's potentially useful to look for setups and track your trades.

I've just begun to crack the surface learning the program. I have so much on my plate to research, learn, create, and do that I don't have the time I want to focus on it, but it's pretty cool so far.

We now see the effect of the Fed pushing on a string. One would expect that falling interest rates would be a good thing. The rise in the price of gold and oil is neither shocking nor surprising. Interests outside the USA has ended its wait for the US to get the house in order and that Interest no longer values these commodities by the wooden nickel. I wonder what basket of currencies is being used.

So we have US investors worried and putting funds into the safety of US Treasuries. And China is doing the opposite and taking money out of US Treasuries. That country was/is(??) smart/dumb(??) to have the Chinese currency pegged to the US Dollar - now the US can export inflation to China. What interesting times we live in.

How can the fall in the US dollar not lead to inflation? When books (cars, electronics, the list goes on this week - stores are tripping over each other reducing prices - I can't buy anything this week because it will be cheaper next week) sell for less in Canada than the US the wake-up call is that "we have a problem Houston'. Canadians are facing deflation short-term. And when I get a notice from both my natural gas and electrical supplier that my cost of these inputs are going down this winter I know Houston has a problem. Even the gas for the car makes no sense in Canada. Back when Katrina hit I paid a $1.29 for a litre of gas. Today it is selling at $0.99 a litre, even with Oil is hitting new highs.

Being in cash is something that I would have been reluctant to hold before this blog. I was blinded that you got to have your money in the market all the time. Well, I don't buy it anymore. Being at 90% cash my gains for October may have been meagre, but I would rather have these small gains and peace of mind when the market acts like a wild beast. There must have been many a trader who had sleepless nights in October. The risks seemed too high at times for the potential rewards. If we are peaking here, then hopefully we see less volatility, and some nice trends develop to the downside that we can trade. But I won't hold my breath. Volatility is here for a while longer. Trade it if you can. [022]

Here's a PerfectChart of $GOLD and GDX. Miners starting to show their positive leverage to bullion price...at least for the moment. What a move off the Aug lows!

http://tinyurl.com/3yos89

Bill...

A personal note of thanks...

Was filled on my XOM puts today with a 800.00 gain in three weeks.. I will take it...

Also, WGDFF Bought @ 1.90 for myself and my neice and nephews custodial accounts and sold most at a 110% profit...

I know things may go higher, but I like Bill think there will be a better time to buy WGDFF and it sure feels good to ring the register..

I appreciate all who post here, and learn so much everyday.

I don't know if it's a good thing, but I feel like an addict when it comes to this site. I can't wait for Bills posts and the commentary to follow..

I NEED TO GET A LIFE...Thanks all, have a great weekend...

Bill made this statement...
"This is a day trader's market. Best to be flat at the close and start again fresh in the morning."

What does he mean by being "flat at the close"?
Sold off of your holdings for the day?

Thanks Kaimu and everyone for their insights on WGDFF. I second basketguy's comments on this site.

Wonder if the fed will move on this next week? If not, dollar will only move lower while other two will only go higher.

CRB index at 353.57!

USD at 76.318!

Gold spot at 806.00!

Wonder if Bernanke is having a stiff drink!

Addendum to prior post: Also sold IRA WGDFF bought at even lower cost basis than reg account.

Have a great weekend!

Rumor has it Chuck Prince is history on Sunday.
C sure took an after market hop.

Bill..... thanks for the clearing that up for me.

"Returning to the bond market issue, since no one among us knows the future, the right decision for us is to use as much logic as possible and use bond market's predictions when we take positions."

David, sorry I just don't get it. In the last two years they appointed a guy to the Fed who spoke favorably of dropping money from helicopters, reporting of M3 was stopped, we were fighting a war, energy prices were rising, gold was rising, money and credit was loose. Yet long-term bonds have only been yielding around 5 percent more or less. Did anyone really think our cost of living was going up by the core rate? Call me crazy, but I think logic pointed toward higher inflation a long time ago.

Anyone have any imput to this comment from an article posted by Seeking Alpha?

"Just for your reference, here is the chart of "the perfect setup". In a nutshell, a very long commodity bull market might soon be ending! We may be approaching a screeching halt in gold, materials and oil. It appears to be a perfect setup, at least temporary, for a major decline in commodities. Commodities have already fully priced in the Fed's cut, so it's time to take some profits off the table after this massive rally we just had. And you can see that on the Street Tracks Gold (GLD) chart below. It's hitting a major double long-term resistance at $78-78.50 area. A perfect setup. Do you know that there is no real long-term support line until GLD reaches about $700 level (more than 10% down)- see below? In anyway, it doesn't look good from here, in my opinion. And GLD technical outlook right now fully coincides with Randgold (GOLD) technical outlook (compare the two charts here- almost identical). Therefore, sell, don't buy."

*see graph at the bottom of the article

http://tinyurl.com/yvpyd2

basketguy,
Get a life? It sounds like you are _building_ a life.

Or lives.

I can't speak for someone else, esp. Bill, but if I heard stories like that from something I created, where financial security for you and those kids was being built in an honest manner, from sharing my efforts and experience, well, I'd feel pretty darned good about that. And I wouldn't feel bad about feeling being proud of it, at all.

Way to go ringing the register. Way to go taking some of the table and putting it towards their future. Don't forget to, when they are old enough, teach them about the evils of HB&B and how to protect themselves!

In a related note:

My understanding is that 1) WGDFF is, or will be, among the lowest cost producers and that 2) they are hedging only one third of production.

Given that, is a selloff guaranteed to be warranted? If the money goes to an unhedged but costlier producer, has anything been gained?

I guess an analysis factoring the loss due to hedging that also factors the cost of production growing at the rate of gold price increase, along with the gains of the unhedged portion, would be the thing to figure out. I wonder if one of our gold stock analysis wizards could compute that?

Isaiah64v4,
Do you think it's wise to let some anonymous blog poster influence your investment decisions? Do you know what his credientials are? His bio is completely empty. You really have to question his motives. The folks who have been shorting gold are desperate as most are well, well under water and this market is nearly in runaway mode. I'm sure it wouldn't be beneath them to write negative articles on well travelled sites.
GL

"The US economy has fallen and can’t get up"

Bill............ Very Funny ! ! !

.................LOL.............

Fallen!!! I would suggest more like a hit and run by your friendly HB&B , The commercial on TV about "having Bankers" hits home.

Bill I think you under estimate the commitment and appreciation of your reader's I would very happy to donate towards your expenses, and I am sure many others would also.
Thanks
Brian

"anyone know of a hypnosis cd I can use to shut down the voice that speaks to me of doom.."

moneygenie- Mark Hulbert likes to compare the market to a bucking bronco doing its best to throw you off, which is not a bad analogy...i'm sure theories abound as to why that is (maybe it's just the fact other traders are doing their best to outguess you and/or separate you from your capital?)...for me it helps to know that most positions will play out the way you think they will- they just don't play out when you think they will...

as for ignoring impulses-

(a) keeping position sizes small (only you know what that would be)...this allows you to give them plenty of "elbow" room...and also lets you add to the position later->no one catches the bottom, right?...incidentally, almost all of my trades initially go against me..

(b) try to always buy into weakness (or in my case, into negativity)- no guarantee of gains (even legg mason's bill miller mentioned in an earlier post started buying homebuilders during the fall 2005 'correction'), but at least you know a ton of buyers have a higher basis..

(c) walk away- especially if it's not an intra-day position, go about your daily business and check in whenever it's convenient...i don't usually have the luxury (or NOT) of watching my positions all day...can't tell you how much "misery" i've bypassed simply by not being around to experience it ;)

good luck..

2nd_ave,Finger Lakes, Isaiah64v4, Dave, Brendan,

“Reading these posts can be very therapeutic at times.”

Therapy was the aim! Thank you all for reading.

I bought the Nov. $40 calls@3.85 after the move down from $4.30 . It traded up to $4.90 that day but I was waiting for earnings and a move like NEM and AEM so I held it. I was looking for Gold $800 yesterday but it didn’t happen so I wanted out . I waited out the open this morning and got scared when $3.90 seemed to be the high, and “ the voice started to speak”.and once again I listened .
But , “ there’s no crying in Baseball!” I did not lose any money and there is always another trade.

The trick is to balance emotion and the plan but I am learning that “getting scared” is not allowed in this game either. One must enter into the - fearlessness, which comes from not second guessing. It seems like every time I change my mind because I fear loss, I lose all the same because I miss out .

Thank you Bill Cara for providing this “Space”. Thank you my friends. I’m moving forward and expecting good things next week.

I don't think Brendan's comment is particularly fair. Brendan, Isaiah seems to be a guy who is looking at everything, trying to learn, seeking signals and answers, trying to figure out what's going on in a difficult and confusing commodity. That includes listening to the short view. You gotta look at both sides and every argument. He didn't say he was influenced or bought the short guys' argument. Just that he wanted some input on what he was saying. At some point the shorts will be very right. For a little while, at least.

When something goes parabolic, and gold certainly is almost that, you gotta keep your eyes peeled for signs of exhaustion. Talk to the guys who held silver down to 3 after it hit 50 about that. Talk to Sinclair, who locked himself as legend (and rich) when he, who there is no bigger gold bug than, dumped his hoard at somewhere near 845 because he technically read the peak.

My opinion is that gold is being driven by powerful fundamentals. But the same was true last May when gold and all the metals suffered a severe correction. Gold has made (begun?) a huge lift into technically overbought territory. But we saw almost the exact same pattern begin in fall 2005 and continue to a blow-off peak in May 2006. So there is direct, recent historical evidence that the gold curve CAN defy gravity. For a while.

I'm sounding like "on the other hand, on the other hand, etc.." which is an argument for nothing.

What I'm saying is: The steady, strong, movement upwards for so long, and so far off the moving averages, is heady stuff. It mirrors a recent move, so, while currently historically high, there is precedent for the current move and it's continuance.

However, pressures build for a correction with every tick up, and this is no time to fool around or take the bull for granted. Tighten stops, study technicals, seek out fundamentals, add positions carefully, plan ahead how and when you will exit, what is profits to take, what is your core that you will hold a little longer until you are sure the move is over, how you will let yourself re-enter, etc. Get ready to miss the top when it pulls back suddenly and ready to exit without waiting for "it to come back." All that stuff.

Here's the three year chart again.

http://tinyurl.com/2a9nxt

Notice how technically powerful the move was that began in Nov 2005. Notice that at the analogous point we are at now, the momentum indicators look even stronger now than then.

Things are not the same now as then, however. The commodity bull will probably weaken with the economic slowdown, so gold will lose some of that support. But here's what may be different, too:

Someone else noted gold decoupled from the equities. If so, that may be an even more powerful force behind gold. Here's why I think that:

Gold bugs (do I HAVE to raise my hand here?) have lately bemoaned the 'fast money' zipping in and out of gold like it's shares of GOOG or something.

At some point, it will not be 'fast money' pouring into gold, it will be 'scared money' And when that happens, look out. We will be in uncharted waters. This move past 800 will look like peanuts. Gold is a tiny market, as has been noticed time and time again. When everything drops and all the funds and little people alike are trying to get their hands on some to save their skins, and the counter-party risks of the fake-gold, paper-gold and not-gold, and even the dollar (yes, the greenback has counter-party risk) become apparent, it may even be out of the reach of many to obtain it at all.

Sinclair has said two important things recently: One, we will see volatility like we have not seen before, and two, protect yourself.

I would go as far as to say there are, right now, two important posts up at jsmineset.com. The first is Sinclair's "Protect Yourself" Right below it, you will see Dan Norcini's market summary. Sinclair is really genuinely afraid and is advising people how to prepare for extreme economic situations. I have few assets to worry about. But I am taking some serious steps to protect myself. Dan Norcini examines reasons for today's action, and explains why, when the price of gold gets too high, it has to collapse on itself before it resumes it's trip up. I urge everyone to read them.

Example: last spring, when silver was over 15, there was talk that there was an after hours, nighttime meeting called for the commercials and clearing members of COMEX silver. They were instructed to, the next morning in the pits, meet no asks, to "fold their arms," clear no sales, and stand mute as the asks dropped, lower and lower all morning long, as desperate sellers dropped lower and lower. I sat and stared at my screen, frozen, as my own personal net worth dropped by the second. There are people, literally, who are now dead from the global drop in metals that started that morning.

So you should be prepared for that, as well. Decide in advance if you will be holding some of your gold through something like that, WHEN it happens, or if you will trade it.

Anyway, I've gone on long enough here. I think you see what I mean.

Two last points: Mr Short, Beris Blog, is a lousy technician. And he's going to get his ass handed to him on that trade.

PS Go Pats!

The top calling will be over once people realize that October has passed them by. We'll really know after Thanksgiving how it all looks.

By the way, my summary of three of the most important gold-related things I have seen here lately:

1. Gold basis is tighter than ever at $2

2. "Gold is in backwardation!"

3. Gold may have decoupled from the equities.

When FranSix comes out here and says the basis has gone negative, look out.

Go Pats!

Fekete's deep analysis of the Morgan Stanley silver storage fraud.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2625.html

Fekete is a brilliant thinker/educator on metals. I have learned many things that the mainstream metal article writers/newsletter sellers miss.

He has previously explained why the so-called 'naked silver shorts' are not naked at all, and only wish to be perceived as such.

"Morgan-Stanley freely admits to the charge of selling unbacked silver certificates of which it is not guilty, and gladly refunds storage and insurance charges which it has rightfully collected — as long as the secret of the trade need not be revealed, and a much larger income to which it is not entitled can continue to be concealed: the consistent flow of risk-free profits from the ongoing covered writing."

To Fekete the fraud is not the lack of metal, but that Morgan earned income on the metal that should have rightfully gone back to it's owners. Once again, he has a deep and interesting take on that trade.

That covered writing is why I dream of a huge silver hoard, why I fantasize about securing 1.5 Billion in backing to take down the SLV (allowed if any party that holds 60% of SLV shares) It will never happen. But Fekete understands the myth that 'you dig gold (and silver) out of a hole and pay to put it in another one - it earns no return' is exactly what the holders of large piles want us all to think. As they write you covered calls (dreams) that never come true and themselves huge checks (reality.)

MikeNYC,
This Sinclair fellow seems pretty serious: starting Monday, convert your investment shares into paper certificates, if you have coins stored at a coin dealer take delivery of them, etc. In effect, get rid of all the financial intermediaries. I don't know how many of us can do this--I don't think my gold fund is going to start mailing me stock certificates or coins. I do recall during the Asian meltdown in 1998, some people were saying it was the end. I guess I get skeptical over the doomsday scenarios because there is never any end of them. That said, I think this forum can be a good place to brainstorm about ways to protect ourselves if the worst happens. Thanks for the info.

Oh, I'm not saying do all that. But he's an important voice to listen to, along with many others.

And yes, he's serious as a heart attack. Not the life of the party, I think. There was an NY Times feature on him last spring that would be an interesting read. An interesting article, and a great photo of the crusty old guy in his CT mansion, dripping with more gold than a rapper.

As I said before, the guy walked into a meeting room full of credit derivative pushers, guys who were rolling in it last year, and told them they were selling weapons of mass destruction and were going to have problems. They laughed him out of the room. Who's laughing now? And he sold his hoard at 845. So as much as he is over the top, I respect the heck out of they guy.

He is also a master trader, from a family of master traders. One of those guys, like Bill, that you could give a $1,000 account and come back in a year and a half and not be surprised to see 1 million sitting there.

He also charts with those huge table sized paper charts, draftsmens parallels and french curves. Old school, man. Olllddd Schoool!