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November 1, 2007
Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thur., Nov. 1, 2007, 9:27am ET
I am always amazed at how much sucking and blowing the TV Talking Heads are capable of... or my bad grammar and spelling, for that matter.
You think these media and industry professionals would get tired of speaking from both sides of their mouths, but I guess it’s the Energizer Bunny that keeps their lips moving.
My point is that the same “personalities” who have been decrying rate cuts as a negative for the market are now bowing to Washington for cutting them.
What is it with these people? Aren’t they tired of having somebody pull their chain, or is it just part of the job?
In any event, this rate cut is all about the banks. HB&B is about to drop another shoe on their credit market problems. The question soon is going to be, how strong is your bank? ...or your Fund? ...or your portfolio?
The so-called “seasonally-adjusted” US GDP grew by +3.9 pct. In real terms, how much is that? In two months, we’ll start to get the estimates for the 4Q GDP, and that is likely to be, in the words of Bill Gross, just +1 to +2 pct, and, in real terms, how much is that?
So that all of us get the picture, reflation, inflation, whatever, the US economy is not growing. Unless you are hedged in precious metals, you have been losing. But, precious metals, in my opinion, are reaching a cycle peak, with the next cycle not likely to start for several months, during which there will be bad news (i) on the US and European economic front, and (ii) on the US and European corporate earnings front, (iii) on the home-owner ARMS re-fi front, and (iv) from HB&B, which will sooner or later have to come clean as to the mountain of worthless paper they hold and cannot sell.
So what does one do now? I suggest short-term T-Bills before the rate goes to zero. There will be nothing wrong in holding USD for the short-term because I think the Dollar index is going to start lifting, now that the well-fed Talking Heads have everyone believing otherwise.
Of course, I could be wrong. But, then again, what’s wrong with holding cash for a while until markets straighten out?
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 1, 2007 09:27:52 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
Discourse
In addition to all the problems you mentioned, there is a lot of war talk.
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 9:42 AM [link]
In reference to treasury bill rates, why are they so high? We had a crash in the credit markets in August and another similar crash during October. Why have the treasury bill rates found support?
Posted by: FranSix
at
November 1, 2007 9:45 AM [link]
EFU- paid off big at the open...off the table and rotating into QID...
EEV- unable to make a bid on Fido...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 9:47 AM [link]
Agree with you 100%, Bill. I've been gnawing on my paw watching this market go higher against all reason. But I'd rather miss these kind of gains rather than get caught holding the bag.
If your blog has taught me nothing else, it has been patience.
The S&P is extremely ugly this a.m. and is testing the 1520 support I had in mind. It will likely bounce from here, but if it doesn't hold, then things will get much uglier.
Posted by: number2son
at
November 1, 2007 9:48 AM [link]
DJIA's down 185 and they're still bidding up GOOG and AAPL?
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 9:51 AM [link]
"that was really disappointing
Posted by: shark_attack at October 31, 2007 2:24 PM"
"Dear Bill,
Consider that Drudge trumpeting $800 Gold may be the electronic-age equivalent of Time magazine putting a picture of a bull on their cover. I agree with your subtley unstated suggestion that maybe things are a little overdone. I don't think that today's quarter point with the suggestion of no more to come will embolden many bulls here. I'm not saying anything except that my stance is neutral and I will look to the metal itself to provide the clues as to it's next move.
I should mention that I sold HMY in here today; I'm not saying I was right to, but I think we'll all wake up tomorrow and wish we had more cuts coming.
Posted by: shark_attack at October 31, 2007 8:24 PM"
Posted by: shark_attack
at
November 1, 2007 9:56 AM [link]
Hi,
Could one community Member please post here a link to the webage Bill mentiones in today's report in which we can find a screen of prices for the retailers?
Thanks!
Posted by: maromatics
at
November 1, 2007 10:01 AM [link]
Seamus, thanks for XOM yesterday, owe you another one.
Posted by: SiO2
at
November 1, 2007 10:01 AM [link]
finally caught a bid on EEV at 71...keeping position sizes small on all the international ultra-shorts till i get a better handle on them...may be the thin volume that makes them jump->c/w/s bet much bigger on EFU yesterday...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 10:04 AM [link]
ISM index, an index of national manufacturing conditions, came in at low end of expected range at 50. Last month it was 52. 50 is a key level as, per Econoday, a reading above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector.
Posted by: number2son
at
November 1, 2007 10:06 AM [link]
n2son- if 1520 goes then 1490...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 10:07 AM [link]
2nd,
QID players probably often think of the old adage, "Markets can remain illogical longer than we can remain solvent."
When J6P can no longer afford his mortgage payment, food or fuel, will he be buying IPods? How will the coming economic calamity effect Google's advertising revenues?
Keep the faith, brother....and as always, good luck.
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
November 1, 2007 10:11 AM [link]
2nd, the fibs have been very accurate lately on the index charts. FWIW, on my hourly SPX I just moved the top of the range down to yesterday's high and, guess what, 1520 is the 61% retrace. Next support is 1513 and then, 1490.
Just broke 1520 as I am typing. Fighting here is going to be fierce.
Posted by: number2son
at
November 1, 2007 10:14 AM [link]
I missed the market open because after I published this morning's report and commentary, I had to get into other things.
"A wild half-hour" at the open this morning. That was the comment I heard when I first turned on the TV at 10:05am this morning. Some days, like today, I refuse to be be influenced by any other source. I go with my gut most of the time, but today it was 30 minutes to myself without even looking at the market monitors.
Am I surprised that the Dow 30 is off well over -200 points and gold down to 788? Not really.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 10:14 AM [link]
BH- "faith" comes easier after fiscal year-end for funds...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 10:16 AM [link]
Excellent point about the automatons on TV Bill. If you watch carefully, their body language will signal when their handler is sending a shock to their ear piece if any one of them gets too close to revealing anything outside of the script... ;) Hopefully all will watch them with a weather eye as well as strictly for entertainment purposes.
Interesting to note that the market rose 320 points the day of the first cut and followed through the next day with another 90 points. Yesterday's 25 bp trim delivered but 80 points and after nearly 20 minutes today, the market is regurgitating some 208+ points in the early going.
Hope y'all are paying attention....
They always say you never know what you miss until it is gone and since mid-August, I've been out of action and very nearly was out of the game entirely. I cannot more strongly plead with all reading to take greater interest in your health and in your own particular situation and more importantly, family history. As traders and investors it is the attention to detail and the acquisition & application of knowledge which determines our success. I failed to do just that with regards to my health and am, according to the Emory University Cariology & Thoracic Surgery Department, a case study for miraculously surviving a massive heart attack. I wouldn't know how as I was unconscious for 9 days and when I awoke, I more resembled someone being Borg'ed. Do your own homework, your own due diligence is the message and I don't mean to be preachy but had I done that, I would likely not have experienced such a life threatening experience.
Sheesh, twenty five minutes elapsed and we're still down over 200. Cash is looking good...
Posted by: redclaydawg
at
November 1, 2007 10:19 AM [link]
I'm with you number2son (of which I am also one:) ) i sold way too early, but i see no reason to jump in until the next pullback. to add to Bill's list, transport companies and retailers are having problems. check Markman's column on MSN today, and go to walmart.com/secret - black Friday specials for the next three weeks!!! They are really trying hard.
one more for everyone - www.blackfriday.info - day after Thanksgiving "specials" revealed a few weeks early. gotta love those loyal company employees right?
Posted by: rob d
at
November 1, 2007 10:23 AM [link]
maromatics, I did the screen on August 1. I pointed out that the charts were showing a disaster in the US retailers had set in during July.
http://billcara.com/archives/2007/08/caras_daily_commentary_wed_aug.html
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 10:25 AM [link]
How big of a deal will this be for WGDFF? It comes from their third quarter results:
"As required under the terms of the loan facility, the Company has entered into hedging contracts for the forward sale of 429,000 ounces of gold at a price of $801 per ounce during the period July 2008 to December 2014."
I don't know if I'm looking at this correctly but if their expecting to get 160,000-170,000 ounces a year for the first 8 years, they've hedged a third of their production. Is this good, bad or indifferent. $801 is a much better price than what other companies have hedged but in a couple years-or months- that may be quite a discount. Thanks for your insights.
Posted by: telenetworxx
at
November 1, 2007 10:27 AM [link]
Question for people better at trading. I bought SKF (ultrashort financials) at 78. What would you do now, at 86.90?
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 10:28 AM [link]
Jim Brown at Mill city Gold (TSX: MC) just e-mailed results of drilling on his property at Carlin Trend in northern Nevada. Could somebody please check to see how those results compare to the recent ones from US Gold? TIA
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 10:30 AM [link]
Speaking of retailers, check out CROX. Currently down 29% at 53. Looks like expectations were too high. If it hits 40 or below in the next couple of days then, I think the march 08 calls will look good. With consumers Chrismas money in short supply, I think Apple and CROX will be two of the outperformers this holiday season. Just a thought.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
November 1, 2007 10:34 AM [link]
Trick or treat. Exxon (XOM) missed. Surprise!!! XOM -3.0 pct to 89.19
Citi (C) may need $30 billion in new capital or find themselves short of funds. Hmmm. C down -8.1 pct to 38.48.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 10:35 AM [link]
Bill,
MA's earning and revenue increase is not related to interest charge. It is really a payment processing company that gets a cut of total transaction (i.e. consumer's credit card bill). MA doesn't make money on interest charge or lose money on bad debt. Card issuing banks do.
In a sense, it is not in the same business as American Express, or Capital One. It is more like Western Uion although in a different market.
MA's competitive advantage is in its network of retailers, banks etc, and its ability to process payment seamlessly across the globe. Its future lies in the further penetration of credit cards in emerging markets and its ability to increase scale without increase costs proportionaly. It is a franchise with great moat in a growing industry.
For long term investors in this community, I would say it is a classic Buffet type stock, if you can buy cheap, you can hold for long-term (as least 10 years) and get market-beat returns.
Posted by: yc32
at
November 1, 2007 10:37 AM [link]
SLW down -5.5 pct and SLV down -3.3 pct. As I say, on the way down, you want to be in the metal, not the stocks. And if you must hold the metal, you can use the long-dated futures and various spread strategies to minimize your losses.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 10:40 AM [link]
yc32, I stand corrected. Thanks.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 10:41 AM [link]
"Fighting here is going to be fierce." no kidding...this bull doesn't want to go down..
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 10:42 AM [link]
Does anyone here know where I can find recession dates for Germany, UK and Japan?
I'm working on a finance paper, and so far all I've found are the NBER recession dates for the US...
thanks
Posted by: Hallvardo
at
November 1, 2007 10:45 AM [link]
2nd_ave,
In most bull fights, the kill is not swift.
Some of the Dow 30 that have taken big hits today, like Citi, will likely attract bids. But, it's the bigger picture you have to be watching. Why, for example, does Citi need $30 billion in new capital? Why did Exxon have an earnings miss?
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 10:47 AM [link]
So the normal bid in the stock market over the last few days near month-end is over. And the normal rally into the FOMC announcement is now over too. Now what?
Check out our FedCall research note from yesterday that discusses what happened to the stock market the last time the Fed cut the fed funds rate for the second time.
Our post from yesterday: Our FedCall research note on today's FOMC meeting in Washington, D.C. has just been published on our website, http://www.2globalmarkets.com.
The report is in the FedWatch section, on the FedCall page at http://tinyurl.com/yuxpxh
Posted by: JWibbs
at
November 1, 2007 10:47 AM [link]
In regards to Bill's comment about letting the ARMS/Subprime/Alt-A/HB&B mess play out, since it is only getting started, I thought I would relate something of much greater importance that is staggering. Reading it was like an epiphany since I had not considered the implications of GSEs fully. This is something everyone should see.
From www.housingdoom.com:
"A Yahoo Finance Board post attributed to Dan Jones of E-Bluewater caught my eye yesterday. Jones asked What’s the number, Fannie? and he’s asking an important question:"
"What’s the Number, Fannie?
I’m going to put that at the top of my blog everyday until we find out just what "The Number" is. What number, you may ask!? The number I’m looking for is the actual drawdown in value that the $4 trillion portfolio of mortgage securities managed and/or guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that has occurred as a result of this sub-prime, Alt-A, SIV-LITE debacle that we’ve come to know and love now. I want to know, from the company, what the MARKED TO MARKET portfolio is valued at these days.
Why do I want to know that? I look at Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual, Bear Stearns and the other culprits here in this debacle and I’m seeing multi billion write downs. $5 billion at Merrill…basically all the quarterly earnings for WaMu…it’s all being recognized and they are taking the hit to earnings and book value much as they should. GAAP rules dictate that.
I am going on record here to say that we don’t get to the bottom of this mortgage debacle until we find out that number. And once we find out that number, we find out just how willing the Government is to bail out FNM and / or FRE. $4 trillion, with a 5% haircut is $200 billion. FNM and FRE’s equity, combined is about 1/3 of that. Does that make you wonder why both of these Government Sponsored Entities have been floating preferred stock lately? $500 million at a clip… It’s because they’re raising equity in the only way they can!
I think we see this number - be it $100, $200 or $300 billion - and we see one or both of these GSE’s come to the brink of being basically zeroed out on equity, and its THEN that we find out just how willing the government is to back these groups with "full faith and credit".
Up until we see that number, all the interest rate cuts in the world aren’t going to help - they’re only going to prolong the situation and kill off our US Dollar. "
Posted by: AlanM
at
November 1, 2007 10:51 AM [link]
At this time, near-hurricane force winds are hitting Nassau Bahamas, with the storm centred some 45 miles southwest of the city, on a course heading north-north-east at 9mph. The storm should be overhead in a few hours. I'm happy to say (for this reason alone) that I'm about 1000 miles away.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 10:53 AM [link]
"a case study for miraculously surviving a massive heart attack."
redclaydawg- glad to hear you made it...youngest brother is a radiologist->simple yet effective calcium scoring test (heart scan) can alert most people at risk of heart attack due to narrowing of the arteries...not yet on the radar screen for health insurers but should be soon...paid less than 500 out-of-pocket at a local hospital for mine a couple of years ago, it can provide peace of mind, or save your life...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 10:54 AM [link]
The the market direction will turn when psychology turns and the reaction to the news cycle shifts. Be looking for negative news that can no longer be turned into good news. At some point good news will become bad news. Reasons to sell will take over reasons to buy. It always happens. With the Fed on the sideline, or so they say, this cycle might be starting to happen.
Posted by: geckojb
at
November 1, 2007 11:05 AM [link]
Anyone else here a rumor in New York city this morning that Standard & Poor's is going to down grade all the CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations) today.
Denny,
I'm in SKF @ $72.00 and am struggling with the same question.
I'm considering letting SOME go up here although my target is $100+.
Longer term, you just gotta think SKF is going higher.
Good luck.
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
November 1, 2007 11:07 AM [link]
BH-Yes long-term it seems right. I guess I was wondering how you would play it using technicals short-term.
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 11:13 AM [link]
I got long GSX during the drop.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
November 1, 2007 11:16 AM [link]
Denny,
Admittedly, I'm not much of a technician but there are some good ones in here. Hopefully, one or more of them will chime in.
Regards.
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
November 1, 2007 11:18 AM [link]
Denny,
Admittedly, I have poor technical skills but there are some crackerjack technicians in here. Hopefully, one of them will chime in.
Regards.
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
November 1, 2007 11:20 AM [link]
SKF....read Bill's comment on C. Maybe a trailing stop?
Posted by: Craig
at
November 1, 2007 11:22 AM [link]
Thank you for that very valuable information re: calcium scoring test, 2nd_Ave.
Redclaydawg, so glad you're back with us!
Posted by: GemmaStar
at
November 1, 2007 11:26 AM [link]
Re. SKF Management.
Denny / Bull Hunter -
I see that some Nov./Dec. call options are being traded now. Wide spread, almost no liquidity, but maybe a way to lock-up some value on extreme sentiment moves. E.g. Dec. $90 call (SKFLL) $6.60/$7.70.
JML
Posted by: Jumble
at
November 1, 2007 11:29 AM [link]
Aussieontop and Jock,
A fellow subscriber,elsewhere, was kind of enough to share some exploration tickers for further study. He attended the conference in NO, met with these companies and liked them.
NG; VGZ; QTA.V; EPZ.V; VGQ.TO
Posted by: jasper
at
November 1, 2007 11:30 AM [link]
Shorted $GOLD at 4:29 AM @ 792.71 - I overslept and missed the UK open, which I had suspected would begin a strong downward move. I joined the move as soon as I saw it was strong and continuing.
As soon as it dropped sufficiently I adjusted my stop aggresively so I could sleep, knowing I would not wake up to a loss of more than $100. I set my take profit limit pretty far down, at a $782, for a potential gain of roughly 1000/contract, or 333 on a mini gold.
When I woke up and saw I was several hundred points in the green I adjusted my stop down aggressively again, so I could ride the subway to work in peace, knowing I would, at worst, be stopped out for a small gain. I also contemplated moving my profit target down, but it was already a bit too greedy. Mentally pimp-slapped myself for letting greed poke it's head out.
Arriving at work, I saw with pleasure I was well over $700 in the green, and I plotted out the well-defined downward price channel that had formed. I adjusted my stop down again (that's moving a stop down on a short, so it's OK) My stop was set just above the peak of the previous large price reversal, set to stop me out should it break up out of the channel. I expected any channel breakout to be strong. I was right.
$GOLD broke up srongly out of the channel, hit my stop and I was out of the trade at 788.02 at 10:26 AM. $GOLD continued upward out of the channel.
I contemplated:
1. My thanks to my stops for locking my gains
2. My thanks to myself for plotting and planning my trade exit around the price channel I was given. That proved very helpful in planning to where I would move my stop.
Most importantly,
3. I focused on forgetting the over $775 in open gains I had at one point, but instead congratulated myself on the $469/gold contract I managed to succeed in obtaining.
4. I also noted my strong instinct to not just close, but reverse the trade. It was correct. $GOLD had begun a move back up. However, I didn't do it because I'm easing back into this kind of trading, and I do not want to recklessly jump in and out without being careful and as in control as I can be. I thanked myself for not jumping like that, and instead closing my deliberate trade and avoiding the impulsive one.
This will be my life for the next few months as I observe myself, the market and my actions within it. 8:30 AM, 2:30 PM, 7:30 PM and 3:30 AM will each mark critical points to enter or exit and to look carefully for reversals of existing trades.
All my observations and lessons will be codified into a written trading plan, as I spend the next month or so easing back into it and developing a plan and discipline. Other available time will be spent developing my intermarket analysis tools and techniques, to give me as many views into the macro and micro elements of the market I am trading.
I already have my first three trading rules:
1. Protect my capital
2. Protect my capital
3. At all costs, protect my capital.
I took myself out before with sloppy trading. Never again.
(OK, I admit, I'm beginning this live trading using the Oanda gold/usd currency pair and tiny trading lots. My gains were $4.69/contract and not $469. But my psychology, rules and executions are in the development phase. I expect a month or so using this platform to test myself scalping $GOLD, which this pair mirrors, to get my approach squared away, and hone my sense of market rhythm. Then I plan to move on to CBOT gold minis. Right now, this is me in training wheels.)
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 11:34 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
Telenetworxx ... The loan facility for WGI/WGDFF in my opinion, was a horrible deal, but this seems to be "par for the course" with Barrick execs, since Barrick financed many a deal this way in the past. I am not saying the management is bad I am saying the loan is! If WGI/WGDDF cannot repay the loan ASAP then you could say management made a bad decision.
Right now it is okay at $801, but when the POG goes over $801 it is not. Six years is a long time and I expect the POG will be above $801 for most of that six years and not by a little bit! You just have to look at first year actual production to get a feel for how this effects their bottom line.
I do not like these non-recourse loans and I have said so many times in the past. Because of that I did not stay in WGI/WGDDF ... I did buy WGI but I sold shortly after they announced this loan. Yes, I missed out on the share price rise, but that is how I operate. I also do not buy Russia and China ... C'est la vi ...
What I am saying is that you should do your own due diligence and determine your own stance regarding "non-recourse" hedged loans. It is not an urgent matter at this point but it could be within 12 months and beyond. It boils down to added "risk" ... In an industry where risk is 90% and luck is 10% piling up more risk is unacceptable. I think WGI/WGDDF could have made a better deal on a loan, but I am no CEO.
In the coming years funding will be increasingly harder to find and many juniors may have to resort to such tactics more increasingly at first year production. What's the alternative to costly and risky financing?
I am looking at "micro mining" techniques now that may become more accepted instead of the usual think BIG ... which somehow seems to find its way to BIG DEBT and BIG DILUTION with BIG HEDGING! This is where first year start-up production budgets can be in the $11mil to $14mil range not the $100mil plus. I kind of figured this out listening to my own rants about BIG GOVERNMENT and the huge advantages that a "small" government could afford US citizens. Well, why not apply that concept to shareholders and mining companies? It comes down to a matter of profit not ounces! Remember just because a junior explorer starts up production does not mean they are now 100% "safe" and out of the woods forever!
As inflation ravages the Earth more and more "micro" will be the new "go-to" solution for many businesses. Out of frustration from lousy employee pools from unions my electrical contracting biz went "small"! We reversed course and got to the point where just my partner and I could pull off $2mil+ jobs with "casual" labor. We worked seven days a week, but we also "took home" BIG HUGE annual pay checks! As my ex-mentor Russian boss used to tell me ... "Nyet ... Mondevoshka ... if you do it wrong once you lose twice not once!" HA!! You can never "really" make up losses can you? I should know ... The only thing losses are good for is the learning experience, but ... A life without losses is a life never really lived! And so it goes ... there is no escape!
Posted by: kaimu
at
November 1, 2007 11:34 AM [link]
Denny, Bull Hunter:
Also not a crackerjack technician, but I noticed a lot of money flowing into XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ) this AM mostly from block trades. So it appears some institutional money is betting on the upside of this sector (at least for this AM)
Posted by: RobBoss
at
November 1, 2007 11:38 AM [link]
jumble, boy it would be excellent if i knew what any of that was that you said. Off to investopedia.
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 11:39 AM [link]
someone traded 20000 shares of wgdff at 11:26...have they seen a top?
Posted by: bwl
at
November 1, 2007 11:39 AM [link]
Craig, Jumble and RobBoss,
Thank you for your always welcome input.
Regards.
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
November 1, 2007 11:50 AM [link]
Trend Portfolio
Looks like the downturn is here. SPY trend is down as indicated by the 22 week and 22 day moving average slope and looks like will close at lowest level of past 3 days.
At the moment I write this, there are only 7 of the cara100's up today. Shorting HOV, BBBY today.
http://tinyurl.com/yoe5j2 - Portfolio
http://tinyurl.com/34tqpz - Forecasts
Posted by: holdenll
at
November 1, 2007 11:51 AM [link]
RobBoss, the price of XLF is down today though, so you're saying block trades means institutions are buying?
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 11:58 AM [link]
Re: When to hold them, and when to fold them. (SKF)
I have to force myself to step back and ignore the daily gyrations. (Trading on a daily basis is not an option for me.) It is a very difficult task, but Bill has taught me very valuable lessons is 1) ignoring the talking heads, and 2) using RSI to step into and out of positions you believe in. Everyone in the Cara Community is dead on in seeing what the results of HB&B and CB actions will be in the future and seeing the trends in the markets, and the trick for me was to intelligently play the currents I see out there. To illustrate that point, I posted this not too long ago:
I opened a position in SRS (Short Real Estate) today, to add some short exposure to my portfolio. I have a couple of reasons why I saw today as a good entry. First, I saw the daily RSI for SRS pop back above 30, and volume increase. IYR (Dow Jones US Real Estate has had a nice counter trend bear market rally from it's lows, and it's Daily RSI is above 70)... SRS is the anti IYR. Second, with Gold and Oil, heck with all commodities in rally mode pushing into new territory, interest rates (bond rates) will respond to the upside in my opinion. This will further weigh on an industry already in much pain and clearly defined downtrend. In at 80.20. My two cents.
Posted by: Hoosier [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 10, 2007 4:34 PM
Nothing that has occurred in the past few weeks has me concerned that this downtrend will reverse. I'm still holding.
Posted by: Hoosier
at
November 1, 2007 12:00 PM [link]
Denny -
If you own more than 100 shares of SKF, place an offer to sell a covered call at a premium/strike that suits your expectations and/or reflect extreme moves in SKF.
You could also place an offer to sell outside of recent trading ranges to capture some of the wacky extreme trading that occurs with high momentum moves (like today's open).
As an aside, I don't know why today raises your urgency for an off-ramp unless your view has changed. We still haven't taken last week's highs out. In doubt, tighten your stops.
JML
Posted by: Jumble
at
November 1, 2007 12:02 PM [link]
kaimu,
That's why I like small oils that show existing production. Small can be big to individuals like us, if it goes well.
Finger Lakes, my opinion - CROCS, the shoes, are a fad. One day people will look back at photos of themselves wearing these ugly things and cringe, like 70s haircuts and plaid pants. But I'm no fashion expert. One look would tell anyone that. I thought CROX would choke long before they hit 50-something/share, and I was wrong. I may be wrong again and again on this. I still fail to see how a grown man can put these things on their feet and go out in public. But I'm against mandals, too.
basketguy - I wish we had Noodle here, still. He would know the answer to that. Does anybody know what happened to that guy?
re: Talking heads - it's not just FETV, it's the regular news, too. I tuned in to some CNN show and I could not believe the way the talking heads were speaking. Do they think they are speaking to a fifth grade class? Is that really the way the bulk of TV watchers want to be spoken too? Simple, overstated, declarative senetences, no complex ideas, etc. It's revolting and sad.
GSX - shark! Make that little pump out there in the middle of nowhere work hard for you!
WGDFF - 801 hedge. Shame on you. Or your bankers.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 12:03 PM [link]
Denny:
Buying into weakness as evidenced by positive money flow.
Posted by: RobBoss
at
November 1, 2007 12:03 PM [link]
1
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 12:04 PM [link]
Jasper - Thanks for submitting those symbols of new "juniors". I have been taking down all the names that appear on the blog, and urge everyone else to present their "nominations".
I hope we can develop a well-considered set of criteria (with input from the community) against which to screen and rank our top 100. For example:
Kaimu - I thought your post on what might be called "junior juniors" was very thought-provoking. How can we judge at exploration or early development stage which juniors may - by operating small - avoid pressures to raise big capital via non-recourse loans and hedging? Clearly, it IS about profit than ounces.
Also, the discussion of GBN.V was great. Keep it coming!
Posted by: Jock
at
November 1, 2007 12:06 PM [link]
Jasper - Thanks for submitting those symbols of new "juniors". I have been taking down all the names that appear on the blog, and urge everyone else to present their "nominations".
I hope we can develop a well-considered set of criteria (with input from the community) against which to screen and rank our top 100. For example:
Kaimu - I thought your post on what might be called "junior juniors" was very thought-provoking. How can we judge at exploration or early development stage which juniors may - by operating small - avoid pressures to raise big capital via non-recourse loans and hedging? Clearly, it IS about profit than ounces.
Also, the discussion of GBN.V was great. Keep it coming!
Posted by: Jock
at
November 1, 2007 12:06 PM [link]
Bill,
Thank you for the link.
Posted by: maromatics
at
November 1, 2007 12:07 PM [link]
Out of all but 25% position in WGDFF.
I made so much on this one. I started accumulating at approx. 1.90 and with gold so overbought and the hedging news it's time to take some off the table. Like Arnold and MacArthur, I'll be back.
Posted by: Craig
at
November 1, 2007 12:08 PM [link]
Thanx RobBoss.
Jumble, got it--tighten stops. No I don't think anythings changed in the outlook other than getting worse. If you want to read something hair-raising about the credit markets, Brian Pretti's commentary today at contraryinvestor.com will do it (subscriber).
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 12:11 PM [link]
Further to the GBN.V discussion, if the company has earnings of 10¢ a share after all is said and done, this means a P/E of $1.40. Even if its 5 - 6¢ a share, then we presume a P/E of 14 to take the share price to a fair value of 60 - 82¢.
The numbers presented at this stage in their economic analysis have already been surpassed, and they are looking at viability to their project based on some very conservative numbers with a knee-capping top cut on their grades.
The final question is, will they dilute further to go at mining all at once, or will they present paradigm changing news in the coming weeks to bolster the share price?
As the CEO says, it all depends on the share price now.
Posted by: FranSix
at
November 1, 2007 12:15 PM [link]
Denny,
Another thought on SKF, in the short term. The BubbleVision shills will no doubt be screaming to buy the banks tonight and tomorrow morning.
They know that the S&P is doomed without them.
I may lock in some profits today and look to reload on the "dead bank bounce".
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
November 1, 2007 12:16 PM [link]
Denny - For those of us who aren't subscribers to contraryinvestor.com, could you post the article (don't know if there are restrictions)or provide the thesis of what the author was postulating?
Thanks in advance.
Posted by: AlanM
at
November 1, 2007 12:17 PM [link]
AlanM, wish I could but it wouldn't be fair to subscribers. The cost is very reasonable.
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 12:20 PM [link]
ValGold Announces $3.5 Million Non-Brokered Private Placement and Updates Drill Program on Mochila Gold Program
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/071101/200711010422639001.html?.v=1
............This could explain some of the recent narrowing of the stock in the $.33-$.35 range recently
--------------------------------------
Jock,
As long as we are throwing out names, I bought a small position on Roxmark RMK.V which is a Geraldton-Beardmore play and has some property adjacent to Kodiak - KXL.v. They have a JV with Premier Gold and own an existing mill. Many of there properties were mined for periods in the 1930s/40s until gold prices went down. Now trading at $.30 a share.
Posted by: BillySundance
at
November 1, 2007 12:25 PM [link]
“NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve added a total of $41 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system on Thursday, the biggest single day of such injections since September 2001.”
Posted by: JIM
at
November 1, 2007 12:28 PM [link]
I thought some readers might find this info about Google Finance useful. I use Google Finance to help me help me to get a 'glance' at the market, and two to keep track of company events. For example, with the link Bill posted of the retailers, I created a watch portfolio to immediately gauge their activity. The second, (most valuable), thing I do is then go to that portfolio and have a calender of all those companies' events put into my Google Calendar, which I use for personal scheduling. Never lose track of an earnings release again!
Posted by: Hoosier
at
November 1, 2007 12:30 PM [link]
Posted by: AlanM
at
November 1, 2007 12:35 PM [link]
Bill,
How would you handle short term t-bills?
How short term? Would you ladder over one to three mos or just keep it to 30 days?
Would you use something like SHV?
Posted by: Craig
at
November 1, 2007 12:52 PM [link]
Hoosier,
I use Google Finance to create watch lists, as well. I like the way it pulls in news for the items on your watch lists.
That's cool because I can make lists and there might be some news on one company that I don't check so often. When I go into Google Finance, the article will be right there as a reminder to see what's up. I also really like their charts.
I wish there were a way to show thumbnail 6 month charts of an entire watch list, too. I could scan the whole list at a glance. That way I can see that, yeah, a name is up 6.8%, but it's just recovering from a huge drop and doesn't amount to much, or maybe I can spot that it's a reversal, or a continuation of a breakout. That would be very helpful.
Another good feature - it's possible to export and import watch lists, if you want to share.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 12:52 PM [link]
"Dead bank bounce." That's pretty funny, BH.
How about "Dead bank walking" for the ones that haven't fully blown up yet?
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 12:54 PM [link]
MikeNYC,
I agree about how ugly Crocs are. I would never buy a pair. But ever since Coach I try to never argue with a strong trend. I actually got screwed by them in March when I bought June puts and just kept getting creamed little by little every day. Who would figure they would keep cranking? The fundamentals are still sound though. The only question I have now is how long will it take to burn off the overhead supply created today? June 08 calls may be better than March 08.
Bill,
I too asked the same questions about C and XOM. It seems to me that we're not hearing the full truth yet about the credit crisis or about how the dollar's decline is hurting domestic energy companies.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
November 1, 2007 12:58 PM [link]
Hoosier and MikeNYC,
I use Google Finace to watchlist Canadian PM and oil/gas stocks. I use free Morningstar portfolios to watchlist anything in the U.S. because it provides historical information and key ratios.
Posted by: Fred
at
November 1, 2007 1:01 PM [link]
Nice move by GLBL. Although earnings and revenue down, conference call covered a lot including 695 Mil backlog. Pending bids 3.4 Bil. Like foreign exposure. (Small long position).
Si02---Think it was optionoracle who had the post you reference. Agreed with his call. I did place an order on some XOM puts at bid yesterday which unfortunately didn’t hit while I was away. Haven’t checked financials, but suspect the crack spread didn’t help.
Redclaydawg---congratulations, hope you make the best of it. Good luck! Although some of these cases are genetics, exercise & diet go a long way. Always have found regular exercise helps with overall performance, concentration, feeling better. Actually, heading to the gym shortly.
Posted by: Seamus
at
November 1, 2007 1:14 PM [link]
Positives about crocs going forward:
-They are making many different designs now, and not all of them will be "ugly".
-quickly expanding internationally.
-The material from which they are made is excellent, and cannot be copied easily (not patented, but a trade secret so no one can easily figure out the process and copy it). the material is feather light and non-marking.
-my 2 year old son wore them all summer and never wanted to wear anything else. big hit with little kids and parents, especially b/c they are relatively cheap ($25 a pair).
Note: never had a position, just trying to provide information.
Posted by: rob d
at
November 1, 2007 1:19 PM [link]
120 pm- AAPL/GOOG/RIMM all in the green..
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 1:21 PM [link]
What's the deal with HOS [Hornbeck Offshore Services] they're up 13% [5.05] today.
Wooow..another "Would of ..could of..should of...
Few weeks ago I had a large position.. today zip!
%$#@%& !
:-)
Posted by: Isaiah64v4
at
November 1, 2007 1:27 PM [link]
RMK.V - Thanks for mentioning this junior, Billy Sundance. I just wish you'd told us about it in mid October - just before it nearly DOUBLED in ONE DAY! - wow.
Posted by: Jock
at
November 1, 2007 1:29 PM [link]
Hoosier,
The Google Finance portfolio system should be on everybody's monitor. Thanks for recommending it.
Re T-Bills, the laddering or rolling-over of 3-month T-Bills every month is the best solution, I think, especially if you are undecided about market trend. If I believe the trend is going up, I will write puts and sell them before maturity if I need the cash. But, if the market could fall, it will almost always fall faster than it climbed (ie, it climbs on a wall of worry and falls in a panic). So T-Bills is the best way to go if there is any possibility of panic.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 1:31 PM [link]
another benefit of google finance - the sector watch. i like how you can just scroll over a color an it tells you the % of stocks in the sector that are up or down. i just wish they would move things along a little quicker and get out of perpetual beta.
Posted by: rob d
at
November 1, 2007 1:35 PM [link]
anyone noticing the collapse in wheat today..
TOP IN GRAINS IS IN..
ONE MORE COMMODITY GROUP TO BITE THE DUST..
NEXT OIL AND GOLD..
cycle top is here
Posted by: mbernold
at
November 1, 2007 1:41 PM [link]
Optionoracle: thank you. Your posts are always a good read. Your call was right on.
Canadian dollar hit it's highest level since the 1800's last night (hitting a modern-day high of US$1.0617). The BNN tax programs repeatedly have people asking what to do with tax losses on the US market. They lose on the exchange, even though DJIA and others are up - on paper - for the year.
Posted by: SiO2
at
November 1, 2007 1:43 PM [link]
Short gold at 788.850.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 1:56 PM [link]
Regarding Crocs....
The health care industry loves them... certainly not for their looks. They are very comfortable, relatively cheap, and easy to clean....Just throw into the washing machine to remove unwanted bodily fluids. They are not going away. If anything, they are becoming more of an institutionalized habit.
And red dawn.... I would HIGHLY suggest that you do some layman research into nutritional causes of atherosclerosis. I would start with Linus Pauling and vitamin C.
Sincerely,
Posted by: MtnGntx
at
November 1, 2007 1:58 PM [link]
Hi,
As I connect several news for the day, I suspect something serious happened to Citibank today:
1. C has gapped down seriously.
2. The FED had to make a hudge cash injection.
3. SPX testing 1520 for the third time today as I type: apparently it held.
Hmmmm
Posted by: maromatics
at
November 1, 2007 2:01 PM [link]
Less than 24 hours since their last rate cut fix, and the junkies are already having withdrawal symptoms.
Too funny. :^)
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
November 1, 2007 2:01 PM [link]
Hi again,
Yes, 1520 on the SPX held...for the time being.
This market is sitting on very thin ice.
Posted by: maromatics
at
November 1, 2007 2:09 PM [link]
GROW,
This asset mangmt company was mentioned a while back. Being long is not in vogue, but the mutual fund products are pretty amazing...the gold one with frank holmes at the helm is small cap, low expenses, and good yield. Today I took half of a position in the underlying company/grow. Curious if anyone else acquired since its mention.
Posted by: jasper
at
November 1, 2007 2:13 PM [link]
Not ONE of the retailers on Bill's list is up...
Posted by: Hoosier
at
November 1, 2007 2:16 PM [link]
That was fast. Up 150 in seconds, and almost as fast a reversal stopped me out at 788.80. The .05 gain covers my transaction costs. Capital protected. Mission accomplished. Thank you, Mike, for setting your stops properly.
CROCS - thanks for filling me in, everybody. I get it a little better now. I do wonder if the miracle plastic is enough of a 'moat' in the long run. I bet there's a hundred factories in china ramping up to clone them.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 2:19 PM [link]
Hoosier,
Yep.
Makes me want to laugh when I see the pump monkeys saying that the holiday season will be great...
As Bill has taught us: keep your eye on the ball...
Posted by: maromatics
at
November 1, 2007 2:20 PM [link]
jasper,
GROW will grow again at some point. Terrific company, but I think your timing is off.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 2:23 PM [link]
1520- n2son, you really called that line in the sand...3rd assault on it today...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
November 1, 2007 2:28 PM [link]
Opened MSFT Dec Puts @ 37.50
Opened ALL Jan Puts @ 50
Opened EMC Jan Calls @ 22.50
Opened MYL Jan Calls @ 15
Posted by: RobBoss
at
November 1, 2007 2:45 PM [link]
Just got back from 9 holes. Loving the action in my GSX, they've got a call tomorrow I expect a rally into it and maybe after. Anyway the price was right as were the conditions. It is only under duress that we extract the fullest value from our trading partners.
If you need a gold stock Gammon looks ok here long.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
November 1, 2007 2:46 PM [link]
Anyone heard this before???
Gold shares offer greater leverage than bullion
12:01a ET November 1, 2007 (MarketWatch)
Editor's note: Thomas B. Winmill has managed the Midas Fund since 2002 and has been president of the fund's investment manager since 1995. Winmill is a member of the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers. The Midas Fund owns shares in NovaGold Resources, Northern Dynasty Minerals and Anglo-American.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve kept the markets afloat with a Halloween rate cut. As a result, we expect gold to rise as the dollar weakens and U.S. growth remains buoyant.
But questions remain over the future of the U.S. economy.
Since mid-August, gold has run up about 18%, and we anticipate more safe-haven buying of gold. But, the gold bullion market itself appears to become increasingly volatile as some investors take profits after the recent run up and while others continue to buy seeking a financial safe-haven.
Bullion is a relatively conservative way to invest in gold; investing in the physical metals, however, requires special considerations such as the need for custodial arrangements to store the metal and the creditworthiness of the custodian.
Purchasing equities in gold mining companies, offers greater leverage, and risk, than direct ownership of bullion, but requires substantial research and analysis on the part of the investor.
The greater leverage comes from the operating leverage inherent in an operating mining company. One problem with some gold mining companies, however, is that their mines are often found in some of the most politically unstable and corrupt countries in the world.
For investors able to shoulder the risk of equities for the additional potential upside, we would suggest looking at two interesting situations where investing in a gold company offers leverage to the gold price, and mitigation of the political risk: NovaGold Resources and Northern Dynasty Minerals .
NovaGold Resources, with about 105 million shares outstanding, has four big North American based projects. Three are located in Alaska -- Donlin Creek, Rock Creek, and Ambler -- and one is in British Columbia; Galore Creek.
A key date for NovaGold is Nov. 13. On that day the market should get further clarity on the company's biggest project, Donlin Creek. Currently, the company owns 70% of this deposit, which NovaGold claims contains about 33 million gold ounces in the measured and indicated and inferred resource categories. Gold mining giant Barrick Gold is NovaGold's joint venture partner, with a 30% interest. Barrick has an option to earn an additional 40% (increasing its interest to 70% and reducing NovaGold's interest to 30%) if it can meet certain conditions by Nov. 13. NovaGold said Barrick can't possibly meet the conditions.
Last year, Barrick offered $14.50 for all of NovaGold. Barrick later raised its bid to $16. That was when gold prices were in the $600 to $625 range.
Will Barrick again bid for NovaGold this month? It might. Or maybe it will work out a deal with NovaGold. In any event, it could be very beneficial for NovaGold shareholders because the market does not seem to be ascribing much more than a 30% ownership interest in the project to NovaGold at this time.
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd., with about 96 million shares outstanding, and Anglo-American , a mining giant, are developing one of the world's largest copper-gold-molybdenum projects, located in Alaska, in a 50/50 partnership. Northern Dynasty has described the project, called Pebble, as one of "a very few advanced stage world-class mining projects." That's probably true, and it's certainly one of the few located on American soil.
The catalyst for Northern Dynasty? Rio Tinto, another mining giant, has been purchasing shares of Northern Dynasty. It has brought its total to about 19.79% so far. Will it go all the way and buy the rest of the company? Our guess is that Rio is not buying just for investment -- it wants operating control.
As a final investing note, investors might also consider gold mutual funds, which offer diversification and day-to day management.
In any event, gold investing may be a good opportunity for many Americans to hedge a potential loss in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. Perhaps we should be thankful on Nov. 22 this year that not only is the United States government the largest owner of gold bullion in the world -- but that its land contains some of the largest and most attractive gold deposits.
Information provided by , PRNewswire, Businesswire, News provided by , Copyright ©2007. All rights reserved.
3rd Party Research Disclosure /wwws-14:41:56
Posted by: moneygenie
at
November 1, 2007 2:50 PM [link]
I think I've said shares=leverage about 10 times in the past week. Nice to see that.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 2:59 PM [link]
Those 53 mostly American retailers I listed on Aug 1 (and noted above) just happen to be down 53/53 for an average of -3.62 pct to this point today. Ouch!
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 3:00 PM [link]
Shark, that was pretty slick buying GSX on that hard dip this morning. That took some guts.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 3:02 PM [link]
Bill, Thanks for the input. I've got an opportunity to re-consider the timing.
Posted by: jasper
at
November 1, 2007 3:07 PM [link]
If you haven't seen his latest quick post, it gave me a good chuckle. http://www.slopeofhope.com/
Posted by: Hoosier
at
November 1, 2007 3:18 PM [link]
moneygenie........ thanks for the post about NovaGold Resources & Northern Dynasty
Posted by: Isaiah64v4
at
November 1, 2007 3:19 PM [link]
So 1520 falls....
Posted by: Hoosier
at
November 1, 2007 3:22 PM [link]
"catch a falling star and put it in your pocket....save it for a rainy day...." A song from the Sixties.
I see knives falling now.
Tough day for the Cara 100. 90 of the 100 are down so far today, for an average loss of -1.99 pct.
Once I get the website switched to a Mac at my end, I will make some changes so that we can start following these C100 lists with the detail of a Google Portfolio plus RSI+MACD data, and so forth.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 3:25 PM [link]
If you squint your eyes this 4 mo. SKF chart looks like a dragon.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 3:28 PM [link]
Ah, it may not resolve to the right page. But check out the 4 mo. SKF chart.
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 3:29 PM [link]
Note FWR, the last NOT sibling that has not taken off, up on 6x volume. Riding it since .26.
Posted by: SiO2
at
November 1, 2007 3:29 PM [link]
Jasper, I have been trading GROW for a while, and I am still holding a large position in it. However, I am seriously considering cutting it in half now. GROW is best correlated with gold, and so it will most likely be falling for the next few days. They have an earnings release on Nov. 5 at 12noon ET, and I will place a buy stop order on GROW right before the announcement, to catch an upmove, if it happens.
Posted by: David
at
November 1, 2007 3:43 PM [link]
Bill, that would be great for the website. The only thing I'm waiting for with google is some technical analysis and charting tools... if you had all that here, your site would become a one stop shop. Also, for those who aren't googlephiles, another great feature is using the iGoogle homepage of your own design to custom create your own finance page. No longer locked into a design box.
http://googlefinanceblog.blogspot.com/2007/10/api-gadgets-and-tabs-oh-my.html
Posted by: Hoosier
at
November 1, 2007 3:46 PM [link]
ETRADE account now frozen....
Must Be SELLIN SELLIN SELLIN
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
Trust me, these storms are infrequent in Nassau. Now Treasure Cay, Bahamas, that's a different story... :-)
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 3:49 PM [link]
Wow, this selloff is agressive. Once oil and tech rolls over the real selling will begin. There are a lot people wedded to their oil stocks.
1500/1490 is the bull/bear line. Draw that line on a daily chart of the S&P and you will see why.
I missed buying Anadigics this morning by 10 cents on my limit order and it launched from there. Oh well, I'll just ride my shorts.
Posted by: moab
at
November 1, 2007 3:51 PM [link]
David,
I got out today. Not good to buy just before earnings release,plus Bill's input. Did you see the 10k plus shares jump earlier the day? This year it has been a huge underperformer of GLD. Grow is down 25% and and gld is up 25%...but I can see periods where the two trade close. thx for commentary.
Posted by: jasper
at
November 1, 2007 3:58 PM [link]
Jock,
I bought in on RMK.V at .13, still holding but...
I confess, I bought it by mistake because I misread the resource estimate amounts for the Moly: 72,000 tons at 1.04%Mo per ton? I thought they had 72,000 tons of moly!!! Cheers
Posted by: yaba
at
November 1, 2007 4:07 PM [link]
Jasper, GROW started underperforming gold since their earnings announcement two quarters ago, when they said that their income from advisory fees fell a little because the big financial companies started getting stingy cut down on their service requests. That's when I started buying GROW on the way down, because this line of business is periferal to GROW, as they get most of their income from managing their mutual funds. As I have indicated earlier, their two largest funds are UNWPX (gold) and PSPFX (oil), and so any divergence between performance of these funds and GROW is a buying opportunity.
Posted by: David
at
November 1, 2007 4:23 PM [link]
re: yesterday's FOMC statement.
The second sentence of commentary by the FOMC stated "the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term..." We don't believe this is a forecast from the FOMC (they save their formal forecasts for the twice yearly report to Congress by the Fed Chairman). We believe the Board of Governors already knows that economic growth so far in the fourth quarter is well below the solid growth of the third quarter, hence the FOMC felt compelled to pre-announce what many already suspect is taking place in the economy.
The fallout: risk of lowered earnings expectations/guidance and therefore lower stock prices is increasing. Technically though, the market still has a positive bias, although a few more days like today and a downside bias will come into play. If we do get a big move down going into year-end, then the inverted yield curve that started last August and the more recent inversion between fed funds and the 2-Year T-note yield will have once again signalled the downturn in the stock market. Stay tuned, as there may be some great buying opportunities in the stock market 4-8 weeks from now! http://www.2globalmarkets.com
Posted by: JWibbs
at
November 1, 2007 4:25 PM [link]
LVS: down $27 after hours at 105
Posted by: JogyP
at
November 1, 2007 4:29 PM [link]
yaba - we get it any way we can ! - Wish my mistakes were profitable!
Posted by: Jock
at
November 1, 2007 4:34 PM [link]
FWIW
After reading a post by MarkM to track juniors during the good and the bad times and see which are strong over a period of time I decided to invest in 20 juniors; 100 shares each to see their performance. The top 5 performers were:
Symbol date purchased % gain
ANO 9/11/07 72%
CGEXF.PK 9/19/07 145%
GXEXF.PK 9/11/07 83%
NOT.V 9/19/07 73%
WGDFF.OB 9/11/07 47%
I know the time period is rather short as a test, and that these can be very volatile, but it is something I am going to continue to monitor. I will be adding per a list of stocks Bill published recently.
The overall % gain for the 20 juniors was 20.65%
Posted by: jfs
at
November 1, 2007 4:55 PM [link]
Fast Money just asked if we should be concerned that Jim Cayne of Bear Stearns smoked a joint in the last three years. Too funny, how many people would like to have a stiff drink today?
Posted by: Telestar3d
at
November 1, 2007 5:19 PM [link]
jfs,
The recent period for the penny dreadful miners is not typical, obviously. But, they are now in play -- up and down -- and good traders will be able to make good money.
Once Jock and I get a report out, the list will grow, and will get better too. The readers will contribute knowledge, and I think this will be a terrific resource for risk takers. For those who are more passive, I plan to offer a closed-end Fund early next year. Getting the 150 or 200 investors will not be a problem, but first I have to see how I can do that legally so that any of you who want to participate can. Securities rules don't make it easy, however, since most of you you are not "accredited" investors.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 5:33 PM [link]
Jock/Yaba
I wish I could have told you all about RMK.V before it doubled, but unfortunately I did not know about it then either! I have my cost basis at $0.26. I am also jealous of your mistakes Yaba - mine have not been so profitable!
Posted by: BillySundance
at
November 1, 2007 5:34 PM [link]
CROX traded almost its entire float of stock today. Talk about nervous investors. The news wasn't even bad, just didn't meet meteoric expectations.
I actually might buy it at the right price. They are expanding international sales and into clothing.
Posted by: moab
at
November 1, 2007 5:34 PM [link]
I think it is hilarious that Crocs is a household brand name now. I lived in Boulder, CO for a bunch of years where the company was started. A local clothing/trinkets store my friend worked at started selling them I want to say in 2000 or 2001. The company founders spent many a night in the Mexican resteraunt my friend managed, drinking margaritas and coming up with plans for the company.
My initial reaction to seeing the shoes in 2000/2001 was how unattractive they were. Low and behold they made the cover of the WSJ shortly thereafter, IPO a few years later, and you know the rest......I guess I wasn't cut out to be a retail analyst b/c unfortunately, I didn't buy any shares
Posted by: BillySundance
at
November 1, 2007 5:49 PM [link]
For those who want the Cara Global Best 100 Companies list that can be entered directly into the Google Portfolio, here it is. Copy and paste. You will be impressed with all the news and upcoming events, current stats, etc. It would be helpful to us if some of you update us in the discourse section with (relevant & material) stuff that is happening in these companies. TIA.
AET ABB ABV ADBE AMAT ASD ATVI BA BBBY BBD BC BDK BHP BMY C CCJ CCL CEO CHA CHL CHRW COST CSCO CTSH CVX DB DELL DEO DIS DOW DNA ECA ERJ ERTS EXC FITB GE GFI GGB GOL GOOG GRMN GS GSK HBC HDB HOV IBKR IBN IMO INFY JCP JNJ KB KSS LEH LLTC LYO MBT MCO MFC MICC MU NKE NTES NUE ORCL OXPS PAYX PBR PG PTR QCOM RIO RIMM RY SBUX SLW SNDK STO SU SWK TCK TGP TGT TM TOT TS UBS UTX VCP VIP WAG WBK WFMI WHR WMT XOM YHOO
You do understand, of course, that this is a watchlist for monitoring. Each year I replace some of the companies because I fear they are no longer good quality. Sometimes it's a tough call. Hovnanian right now is not a stock that anyone in their right mind would buy, but is the company broken or just the industry. If it's the latter, then sooner or later the industry will recover and the creme will rise to the surface. We see it in semi-conductors, mining, etc. There will always be a need for homes and chips and minerals, so I don't think these industries will stay down for long. In any event, I think you need to know something about the companies whose stocks you trade, and there are so many companies that I decided to choose ones of high quality because through thick and thin these are the ones that out-perform their peers (or most of them). Timing of your stock trades is a different matter altogether.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 5:54 PM [link]
Re. Tempted by CROX?
As a veteran knife catcher (and my hands today show honest bleeding from recent retail-related ventures), I have had a hard time getting the fascination with CROX, except that their fast growth was an inviting terrain for momentum players and parabolic-thrill-seekers. Against my own mind, I even considered shorting out of incomprehension; you sure know the kind:it's- going-so-out-of-whack-and-so-high-so-fast-that-it-must-be-a-short. Never pulled the trigger, though.
For all the admirable growth this company may enjoy worldwide and beyond kids' novelty/fashion (the cruelest retail space, worse IMO than teens), CROX remains tonight with a market cap equal that of DECK (another explosive darling)+WWW or TBL+SKX+BWS+SHOO+KCP - all mainstay of the footwear industry. For all their comfort, I can't believe that crocs are a game-changer on par with sneakers and will create an empire (albeit on a way smaller scale) similar to NKE. Footwear is among the simplest categories to imitate; so reports of Chinese factories gearing up for lookalikes (slated for WMT? TGT?) are not encouraging.
I am sure that there is money to be made in a rebound at some point in time and price. Good luck and kudos to the traders who can master these situations. Just be careful out there; all great growth stories go through a similar path when a sharp drop at the end of the initial fast growth period looks like a buying opportunity that traps a second wave of bagholders (those who missed the first burst).
JML
Posted by: Jumble
at
November 1, 2007 6:16 PM [link]
Bill,
Thanks for your comments. I have been accumulating juniors from post's on the blog and articles I've read about other juniors. I know investing in these is part gamble (the jockey) and part review of mining results, but as Aussieontop says the few great ones can make a lot of money if you keep your positions in order. For a $5000 investment this is a fun portfolio to watch and learn from. I am so looking forward to the report you and Jock will be putting out. I have assembled about 40 juniors total and will be happy to forward them to you.
Thanks again for all your insight. jfs
Posted by: jfs
at
November 1, 2007 6:20 PM [link]
Denny Phelps, November 1, 2007 3:28 PM
"If you squint your eyes this 4 mo. SKF chart looks like a dragon.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Ah, it may not resolve to the right page. But check out the 4 mo. SKF chart."
Is this what you were looking at, yes I have to squint a bit.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p23036216176
You need to click the "linkable version" button just below the chart, then the coding will be added after the ..sc/ui.. which specifies the chart symbol and settings.
Posted by: Quasi
at
November 1, 2007 6:49 PM [link]
jfs, pls send the list to bcara@ billcara.com. Thanks.
As Jock and the others who have traveled to PDAC and the Cambridge show well know, I know the key players and will be able to dig up info, which, frankly, would be difficult for somebody other than a broker-dealer analyst. I want to share that info with everybody because (a) traders will be able to make money from it, and (b) the mining and prospecting industry needs more profile in the media.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 7:01 PM [link]
I want to share one of my Google Finance Portfolios, if anyone is interested. This is a list of oil companies that trade on US exchanges and are priced between 1-4 dollars. I call it 'US Traded Oil 1-4' US exchanges because for me Canadian shares have a much higher commission, so I wanted to see what was out there, and below 4 because I was looking to see if I could find some quality in cheaper shares.
WARNING: These are not the highest quality companies. There is often a reason they are cheap.
However, this list is how GSX came to my attention and that resulted in a good short-term trade, and it seems to be really working for Shark.
NASDAQ:MPET AMEX:END AMEX:AOG AMEX:FPP AMEX:CHQ AMEX:GSX NYSE:ENT NYSE:TMR NASDAQ:BDCO AMEX:EPM NASDAQ:ROYL NASDAQ:HUSA OTC:TFLG AMEX:PDO AMEX:GPR AMEX:ABP NYSE:EGY
Here's how I developed it:
First, I use the MSN Deluxe Stock Screener. This is a pretty nice free screener with decent categories and a nice interface. It's not the standard Stock Screen tool, you have to look for the link to Deluxe Screener. Then an ActiveX control is installed, I think.
After I searched by exchange, industry and price range, I looked up each one in Google Finance. A few I chucked out immediately because they had no volume, and/or crazy bid/ask spreads, or some real bad news popped up in the News portion of it's Google Finance page.
I did that three times for each major exchange and came up with the list you see here. The MSN Screener will not screen OTC BB companies, so there may be some more companies in this category worth adding to the list. I don't know.
Have fun.
PS I recommend looking at the "About Google Finance" link at the bottom of the page. It explains all the features. Sadly, there is no way to have shared portfolios. That would have been a great way to share our lists.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 7:11 PM [link]
Another great free Google tool:
Google Alerts.
These are emailed alerts you can set up for any keywords or combination of keywords.
I set one up for every company I own, and for any commodities I am tracking. For example, if I want to know what is happening with cotton, I set up several comprehensive (Blogs, News, AND Web pages,) 'deliver immediately' alerts.
That way I can see news that the cotton stocks in India are high, or cotton yields in the US are low, or farmers are rioting in India because wholesalers are ripping them off, or China has or is expected to increased cotton imports, or learn about a drought affecting cotton. On and on. I'll set up one for "cotton prices" and another for "cotton market" and whatever else I can think of.
I set one up for each company, so if there is bad or good news, or a 10K filing, or some blogger posts an analysis related to the stock, I'll get a link sent to me, either right away (always for shares I own!) or daily for something that is not so critical.
I HIGHLY recommend this or a similar service for any share you own that is of importance.
For commodities, it is amazing what a feel you can get for a market, once the news about, say, coffee, starts pouring in from local newspapers India, Brazil, Colombia, the exchanges, the wires, the blogs, etc. You can almost feel where it might be trending to, if you really absorb the information flow. Or maybe I fool myself I can, anyway.
Some examples of my alerts (each one is a separate alert:)
"cotton crop"
"cotton prices"
+cotton +market +price
wgdff
"western goldfields"
"rare earth elements"
"The Bank Credit Analyst"
"tropical storm"
foreclosures
+well +announced +abandoned +oil
+"central bank" +gold
+chavez +oil +euro
homebuilders
"tom waits"
(oops, how did that get in there? I'm dying to see Tom Waits in concert, which he rarely does, so I don't want to miss the announcement!)
I think you can get the idea. Now that I have this kind of tool, I don't know how I could get by without it.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 7:35 PM [link]
MikeNYC
Maybe we can start to build lists that I can set up in a free pdf that goes out to everybody who wants them.
I will look into that. Thanks.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
November 1, 2007 7:38 PM [link]
MikeNYC,
You can share portfolios in a roundabout fashion. I think it will be a great resource for the community. It's a couple step solution, but I think it will serve it's purpose. You can use the "Download to spreadsheet" function and then upload the spreadsheet into Google documents, and then publish. It appears in spreadsheet form instead of google finance, (fixed if you do the reverse as above), but it serves it's sharing purpose.
Cara 100
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pD3-dUhPtySty595-ECUIEg
Bill, many thanks for the Cara 100 list to zap into Google.... I've been meaning to type them all in.
Posted by: Hoosier
at
November 1, 2007 7:41 PM [link]
I think it can save work and help share ideas.
That 'US Oil 1-4' actually took a bit of time to create. I think I might be able to speed it up next time. The MSN screener can export, I think, but I don't know if the format is compatible with Google. But I also took time to do at least a quick review of each one and toss the obvious dreck. I left the 'possibly dreck' because, well, it's stocks from $1-$4. I wasn't looking for Cinderella, maybe just a dance with her ugly sister.
It can really help, if we share screens this way. Like if someone makes "Gold Explorers ex Chavez and Morales" or something, it would be great to share that. The possibilities are endless. 'Eastern European Oils Over 1 Billion w/ADRs' on and on. 'US/Can Traded Oils with African Operations.' You can slice and dice it any way you want, as long as some one of us wants to put in the effort to make a particular list. There are a lot of folks with a lot of interests here. (Not just gold and funny shoes, I hope! ;-) )
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 1, 2007 8:06 PM [link]
My TSX Chinese Portfolio. Is it time to buy Sino Forest yet?
TSE:AHD TSE:SVU TSE:MSV TSE:SVM TSE:HMZ TSE:HF TSE:MUN TSE:KIH TSE:DDD TSE:MMM TSE:PCN TSE:TRE TSE:GCX TSE:JIN TSE:ICI TSE:ACG TSE:WXI TSE:TVI TSE:ZIC TSE:NEM TSE:SWG
Google Finance doesn't like me too much. First I blow up their Google Reader product because of the # of news feeds I watch, then apparently they can't handle having every TSX stock sector in my portfolio... & Bill's 100.
A daily picklist of 2ndaves & other trades mentioned on the site would be very interesting to see, as would the information we gathered from the Cara stock research teams.
Google alerts is great. You can also filter out items with minus eg. Venezuela -Chavez or search for items between numbers eg. 1..500 billion otional. Basically anything you can do with Google.
Some Google finance hacks...
http://www.yourcreditadvisor.com/blog/2007/03/become_a_google.html
Ultra Long & Short ETFs in USD.
BRPIX ENPSX EPL387 OEPSX OTPSX QID QLD RYAMX SDS ULPSX UVPSX UWPSX UXPIX
TSX Tech Sector... don't put this one in unless you have lots of computer power.
TSE:ONE TSE:TWT TSE:AAH TSE:ABT TSE:IQ TSE:ACG TSE:AXX TSE:AZD TSE:BLD TSE:BLZ TSE:BYT TSE:BH TSE:BRT TSE:CAE TSE:CTY TSE:CMH TSE:CRL TSE:CLS TSE:CIC TSE:CWH TSE:CSN TSE:CDV TSE:CMG TSE:CSU TSE:CRE TSE:CYY TSE:CRY TSE:CX : TSE:DSG TSE:DD TSE:DNK TSE:EFL TSE:EME TSE:ESL TSE:ECG TSE:EKD TSE:ET TSE:EXF TSE:FTG TSE:FUN TSE:GCM TSE:GND TSE:GLN TSE:GTK TSE:HP TSE:H TSE:HYG TSE:IDL TSE:IW TSE:IMP TSE:IDC TSE:ICS TSE:KTV TSE:LMZ TSE:LGI TSE:LUX TSE:MCZ TSE:MN TSE:MTK TSE:MAX TSE:MSF TSE:MDF TSE:MRG TSE:MT TSE:MTM TSE:MKX TSE:WWW TSE:MSD TSE:NII TSE:NT TSE:NDQ TSE:NUR TSE:OTC TSE:Q TSE:QAR TSE:P TSE:RND TSE:RC TSE:RIM TSE:RS TSE:RUT TSE:SVC TSE:SW : TSE:SRX TSE:SYX TSE:SXC TSE:TCS TSE:TZT TSE:TNT TSE:TC TSE:TUN TSE:VCM TSE:VRK TSE:VMY TSE:WPT TSE:WIN TSE:XTX TSE:XNS TSE:XPL TSE:ZL
One or two ETFs to track trends outside of Wall St hours...
FEZ FEU IXN IDV GSG EWA EWO EWK EWZ EWC EFA EEM EZU EWQ EWG EWI EWW EWN EZA EWP EWD EWL EWU EFG EFV IEV RXI KXI IXC IXG IXJ EXI MXI IXP JXI ILF ITF IOO DTH DWM DEW DFE DEB DBN DGG DPC DPN DOO DKA DRF DBR DDI DOL DIM DLS DBT DBU DNL DFJ DXJ DNH DND
One or two ETFs to track trends outside of Wall St hours...
FEZ FEU IXN IDV GSG EWA EWO EWK EWZ EWC EFA EEM EZU EWQ EWG EWI EWW EWN EZA EWP EWD EWL EWU EFG EFV IEV RXI KXI IXC IXG IXJ EXI MXI IXP JXI ILF ITF IOO DTH DWM DEW DFE DEB DBN DGG DPC DPN DOO DKA DRF DBR DDI DOL DIM DLS DBT DBU DNL DFJ DXJ DNH DND
Guess www.billcara.com can't handle the # of stocks either. lol.
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Here's some other ETFs.
XLB XLE XLU XLF XLV XLI XLP XLK MDY EFA IVV EWJ EEM IWM DVY EFV DBV PBW PGJ PEY PHO PWC PRF PID QQQQ QLD BMPSX SPY
TSX Interlisted securities. Are there any arbitrage opportunities due to the USD exchange with CAD, and how can a normal person identify and trade those?
TSE:SVN TSE:AEZ TSE:ABZ TSE:A TSE:AHX TSE:AVN.UN TSE:AEM TSE:AGU TSE:AL TSE:AMM TSE:ANP TSE:APG TSE:ASV TSE:ARZ TSE:AXP TSE:BCE TSE:BLD TSE:BMO TSE:BNS TSE:BAA TSE:ABX TSE:BTE.UN TSE:BEV TSE:BRA TSE:BVF TSE:BPO TSE:CAE TSE:CFT NYSE:HCH TSE:CCO TSE:CNQ TSE:CNE.UN TSE:COM TSE:CM TSE:CNR TSE:CP TSE:SNG TSE:CRJ TSE:CSN TSE:CMT TSE:CMC TSE:CRE TSE:CTQ TSE:BCB TSE:CRY TSE:KRY TSE:DSG TSE:DAX TSE:ELD TSE:ECA TSE:ENB TSE:ERF.UN TSE:ETG TSE:ECG TSE:FNX TSE:FMI TSE:FDG.UN TSE:FRG TSE:GAM TSE:YGA TSE:GNA TSE:GIL TSE:GGG TSE:G TSE:GSC TSE:HTE.UN TSE:HYG TSE:IMG TSE:IMX TSE:IMO TSE:IOL TSE:ITP TSE:IE TSE:IVN TSE:KBR TSE:KFS TSE:K TSE:LMZ TSE:DDS TSE:LOR TSE:MDS TSE:MCZ TSE:MFC TSE:MPH TSE:MNG TSE:MR TSE:MX TSE:MMM TSE:MFL TSE:MAE NYSE:MPV TSE:PDL TSE:NCX TSE:NCS TSE:NRM TSE:NSU TSE:NGD TSE:NXY TSE:NT : TSE:NGX TSE:NG TSE:ONC TSE:OTC TSE:OZN TSE:PMU TSE:PAA : TSE:PCA TSE:PPK TSE:POT TSE:PMD TSE:PD.UN TSE:PWI.UN TSE:PVE.UN TSE:QLT TSE:QC TSE:RIM TSE:RIC : TSE:RBA TSE:RY TSE:RMX TSE:SW TSE:SSO TSE:SLW TSE:STN TSE:SLF TSE:SOY TSE:SU TSE:TD TSE:TLC TSE:TLM TSE:TNX TSE:TKO TSE:TEO TSE:TOC TSE:TA TSE:TRP TSE:TGL TSE:TC TSE:VAS TSE:VIR AMEX:VGZ TSE:VTN TSE:WED TSE:WHT TSE:YM TSE:YRI TSE:ZL TSE:ZIC
The miners on TSX. Asbestos Corporation was on fire today...
Warning. This can easily grind your computer & Google Finance to a halt...
: : : : : : : TSE:AB TSE:ABX TSE:ABZ TSE:ACU TSE:ACX TSE:AEM TSE:AGI TSE:AGU TSE:AHD TSE:AMM TSE:ANO TSE:APG TSE:AQI TSE:ARG TSE:ARL TSE:ARU TSE:ARZ TSE:ATG TSE:ATN TSE:AVK TSE:AVM TSE:AXR TSE:AXU TSE:AZ TSE:AZC TSE:BAA TSE:BAJ TSE:BDY TSE:BGI TSE:BIM TSE:BMD TSE:BWR TSE:BZA TSE:CAL TSE:CCH TSE:CCJ TSE:CCM TSE:CCO TSE:CCU TSE:CDM TSE:CDR TSE:CDU TSE:CG TSE:CGH TSE:CHD TSE:CMF TSE:CMK TSE:CPN NYSE:CRA TSE:CRG TSE:CRJ TSE:CRN TSE:CRU TSE:CS TSE:CTQ TSE:CZN TSE:CZQ TSE:CZZ TSE:DFI TSE:DGC TSE:DML TSE:DNT TSE:DPM NYSE:DYN CVE:EDR TSE:EDV TSE:EET TSE:EFR TSE:EGU TSE:ELC TSE:ELD TSE:ELR NYSE:EMC TSE:ENM TSE:EPM TSE:EQN TSE:ER TSE:ERD TSE:ETG TSE:EUR TSE:FAN TSE:FCC TSE:FCO TSE:FIU TSE:FM TSE:FMA TSE:FNI TSE:FNX TSE:FOR TSE:FRG TSE:FSY TSE:FT TSE:FWM TSE:G TSE:GAM TSE:GBS TSE:GBU TSE:GCE TSE:GCX TSE:GEA TSE:GEO TSE:GGG TSE:GGN TSE:GIT TSE:GL TSE:GLQ TSE:GMI TSE:GMX TSE:GPR TSE:GQM TSE:GRS AMEX:GRZ TSE:GSC TSE:GSL TSE:GTQ TSE:GUY TSE:GVX TSE:GXP TSE:HBM TSE:HLB TSE:HMZ TSE:HRG TSE:IAU TSE:ICI TSE:III TSE:IMG TSE:IMN TSE:IMZ TSE:INV TSE:IRC TSE:ITF TSE:IVN TSE:IVW TSE:IXN TSE:JAG TSE:JFI TSE:JIN TSE:K TSE:KAT TSE:KBR TSE:KCR TSE:KDX TSE:KGI TSE:KRI TSE:KRY TSE:LAM TSE:LMA TSE:LRR TSE:LSG TSE:LUN TSE:MAE TSE:MAI TSE:MAR TSE:MDN TSE:ME TSE:MFL TSE:MGA TSE:MGL AMEX:MGT TSE:ML TSE:MMM TSE:MNB TSE:MNG TSE:MOL TSE:MOY NYSE:MPV TSE:MR TSE:MSV TSE:MUN TSE:MVG TSE:NAC TSE:NG TSE:NGD TSE:NGX TSE:NI TSE:NIO TSE:NNE.A TSE:NOC TSE:NSU TSE:NWI TSE:ONT TSE:OPW TSE:ORA TSE:ORL TSE:ORV TSE:OYM TSE:OZN TSE:PAA TSE:PDL TSE:PDN TSE:PFN TSE:PG TSE:PGD TSE:PLG TSE:PLS TSE:PMU TSE:POM TSE:POT TSE:PPN TSE:PTM TSE:PTQ TSE:PUG TSE:QGX TSE:QMI TSE:QUA TSE:RBI TSE:RDV TSE:RIC TSE:RMX TSE:RVM TSE:RVR TSE:S TSE:SAC TSE:SAG TSE:SAS TSE:SCP TSE:SDM TSE:SEG TSE:SGA TSE:SGF TSE:SGL TSE:SGV TSE:SIM TSE:SKR TSE:SLR TSE:SLW TSE:SMF TSE:SNN TSE:SPM TSE:SSO TSE:SUE TSE:SVM TSE:SWG TSE:SWY TSE:TAH TSE:THR TSE:TIO TSE:TKO TSE:TL TSE:TNX TSE:TVI TSE:UEX TSE:URE AMEX:UXG TSE:VAA TSE:VGQ AMEX:VGZ TSE:WDO TSE:WG TSE:WGI TSE:WM TSE:WRN TSE:WSA TSE:WTM TSE:WTN TSE:XCL TSE:YK TSE:YRI TSE:ZMR TSE:ZNC
Oil & Gas.
You can fairly easily make these portfolios yourself by downloading the lists from www.tsx.com
TSE:GZ TSE:AXC TSE:ACN TSE:AXL TSE:AEN TSE:ABG TSE:AEI TSE:BNK TSE:BEN TSE:BIR TSE:BVX TSE:BD TSE:BME TSE:CFW TSE:CNQ TSE:SNG TSE:CAX TSE:CEK TSE:CLT TSE:CNH TSE:CMT TSE:CLL TSE:COR TSE:CRK TSE:CDH TSE:CR TSE:CYS TSE:DFR TSE:DEE TSE:CTA TSE:DZR TSE:DDV TSE:EBR TSE:ECA TSE:ENE TSE:EE TSE:EXA TSE:FCP TSE:FEI TSE:YGA TSE:GNI TSE:GNY TSE:GCA TSE:GPX TSE:GWE TSE:HPX TSE:HSE TSE:IMO TSE:IXL TSE:ISR TSE:IOL TSE:ITX TSE:IE TSE:KCO TSE:CBM TSE:MSY TSE:MGX TSE:MOX TSE:MIG TSE:NXY TSE:NKO TSE:NVA TSE:OIL TSE:ONR TSE:OPC TSE:PFE TSE:PSE TSE:POU TSE:PBC TSE:PBG TSE:PCA TSE:PFC TSE:PDP TSE:PMG TSE:PXE TSE:PSX TSE:QEC : TSE:RED TSE:RE TSE:RVE TSE:SVW TSE:SME TSE:SEO TSE:SU TSE:SHR TSE:SYN TSE:TLM TSE:TFL TSE:TGL TSE:TOG TSE:TDR TSE:TSK TSE:TBE TSE:UTS TSE:VNX TSE:VRO TSE:WLT TSE:WTL : TSE:WIX
Is the Canadian market one big income trust?
Warning... this will slow down Google Finance.
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Wavesmash! You're on fire! I found the foreign list extremely helpful. Thank you.
Posted by: Hoosier
at
November 1, 2007 9:55 PM [link]
Denny,
Sold some SKF today at $88. Hopefully, I'll be able to reload those shares before the big one.
MikeNYC,
Nice to know that a fellow Cara follower is also a Tom Waits fan.
Good luck to all.
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
November 1, 2007 9:55 PM [link]
Has anyone read The Black Swan by the author of Fooled by Randomness?
There really aren't that many banks in Canada...
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Yeah.. Canada's capital markets are small... there's no way I'm going to try adding all the US listed stocks... even if I had the time & Google could handle it.
Here's NYSE stocks starting with A if anyone wants to give it a go.
The Nasdaq 100... or the red sea today.
NASDAQ:YHOO NASDAQ:ATVI NASDAQ:ADBE NASDAQ:AKAM NASDAQ:ALTR NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:AMGN NASDAQ:AMLN NASDAQ:APOL NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMAT NASDAQ:ADSK NASDAQ:BEA NASDAQ:BEAS NASDAQ:BBBY NASDAQ:BIIB NASDAQ:BRCM NASDAQ:CHRW NASDAQ:CDNS NASDAQ:CELG NASDAQ:CEPH NASDAQ:CHKP NASDAQ:CKFR NASDAQ:CTAS NASDAQ:CSCO NASDAQ:CTXS NASDAQ:CTSH NASDAQ:CMCSA NASDAQ:COST NASDAQ:DELL NASDAQ:XRAY NASDAQ:DISCA NASDAQ:EBAY NASDAQ:DISH NASDAQ:ERTS NASDAQ:EXPE NASDAQ:EXPD NASDAQ:ESRX NASDAQ:FAST NASDAQ:FISV NASDAQ:FLEX NASDAQ:FWLT NASDAQ:GRMN NASDAQ:GENZ NASDAQ:GILD NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:HSIC NASDAQ:IACI NASDAQ:INFY NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:INTU NASDAQ:ISRG NASDAQ:JOYG NASDAQ:JNPR NASDAQ:KLAC NASDAQ:LAM NASDAQ:LRCX NASDAQ:LAMR NASDAQ:LEAP NASDAQ:LVLT NASDAQ:LBTYA NASDAQ:LINTA NASDAQ:LLTC Nasdaq:LM NASDAQ:ERIC NASDAQ:LOGI NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:MCHP NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:MICC NASDAQ:MNST NASDAQ:NTAP NASDAQ:NII NASDAQ:NIHD NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:ORCL NASDAQ:PCAR NASDAQ:PDCO NASDAQ:PTEN NASDAQ:PAYX NASDAQ:PETM NASDAQ:QCOM Nasdaq:IN NASDAQ:RIMM NASDAQ:ROST NASDAQ:PLC NASDAQ:RYAAY NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:SHLD NASDAQ:SEPR NASDAQ:SIAL NASDAQ:SIRI NASDAQ:SPLS NASDAQ:SBUX Nasdaq:SUN NASDAQ:JAVA NASDAQ:SYMC NASDAQ:TLAB NASDAQ:TEVA NASDAQ:UAUA NASDAQ:VRSN NASDAQ:VRTX NASDAQ:VMED NASDAQ:WFMI NASDAQ:WYNN NASDAQ:XLNX NASDAQ:XMSR
Wavesmash -
Is "Black Swan" worth reading, if you've read "Fooled by Randomness"?
I enjoyed "Fooled" but thought he got rather philosophical. I figured "Black Swan"- written during/after a sabbatical at University, would be moreso.
I need to make money now, get philosophical later!
BTW, Great to meet you at the Gold Show.
Posted by: Jock
at
November 1, 2007 10:50 PM [link]
BH-I took today's gift as well. Think you are going to be right about the "dead bank bounce."
Posted by: Denny Phelps
at
November 1, 2007 11:09 PM [link]
CDS traders warn of 'blood on streets'
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/071101/fto110120072249061435.html?.v=1
Posted by: Gimbal Lock
at
November 1, 2007 11:48 PM [link]
Bill,
Just in case you missed this bit of news:
Fed Pumps $41B Into US Financial System
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071101/fed_markets.html
Posted by: onlineaces
at
November 2, 2007 12:02 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
wavesmash ... "currency arbitrage between Canada and the USD"? Seems as if WGDFF shareholders in the USA would have noticed that! I certainly noticed when I did my last two Private Placements with USD buying Canadian juniors. What a deal a 12% - 16% currency discount! I have a few Aussie ones that are turning the corner as well ...
Anyone here realize that about the "F" stocks that trade on the OTCBB here in the USA? The "F" designates "foreign" and comes with a built-in currency converter when buying and selling. Go to the Canadian symbol WGI and read the bid and ask ... then go to the OTCBB symbol WGDFF and read the bid and ask! The bid and ask on the OTCBB should be some what higher than the bid and ask on the TSX symbol. Six months ago it was a 180 degree reverse. Thats because six months ago a USD was worth more than a Loonie! Just an FYI ...
Posted by: kaimu
at
November 2, 2007 1:05 AM [link]
RE: "Fed Pumps $41B Into US Financial System"
Can someone please explain to me what the Fed actually does with this money. Do they loan the money to the banks at 0% interest? Do they buy up debt? Do they purchase U.S. dollars being sold by foreign interests? Thanks.
Posted by: Fred
at
November 2, 2007 3:02 AM [link]
A good way to check gold futures all the way out to Jun 2012:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=GCX07.CMX
Very nice, tight contango in the gold futures.
Spot is here:
I use the TD Waterhouse near futures price measured against the spot price in Kitco to determine the gold basis.
Posted by: FranSix
at
November 2, 2007 3:59 AM [link]
It's very annoying to me that I cannot find one site that will plot the basis, and/or any selection of contract month contract spreads, and then lay either plot over the daily cash price.
I can find one or two of these, but all three, which is naturally what I would want, is not easy to find. I have not fount it yet.
I would also like to plot the basis of any or all the metals together on one plot.
Someone posted a site called spreadfutures or something, I don't recall now. It is very nice in terms of plotting any month contract spreads, or different commodity spreads. But the spot price is nowhere to be found. I really need to see, historically, how the cash price and the basis have moved together and are trending now, relative to each other.
I may have to subscribe to a site find all that, and I suspect even then it may be difficult.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 2, 2007 4:14 AM [link]
Fred:
The Fed Open Market Operations can be accessed below.
Pretty much self explanatory but come back with any questions; someone on the board can help.
Posted by: RobBoss
at
November 2, 2007 4:40 AM [link]
Heads up on after market quotes from last night.
Somethings screwy -It appears that a number of "at the close" orders may have been reported using the prior days close.
NASD after hours reports on NEU & TYL for example. Also time reported on several as 5+ PM not shortly after 4.
Posted by: RobBoss
at
November 2, 2007 5:55 AM [link]
britefutures.com is the site that someone mentioned the other day. very good at plotting spreads among contract months and different commodities. but lacking, as far as I can see, the ability to plot against, or over, the cash price.
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
November 2, 2007 5:55 AM [link]
More on Quotes:
Looks like possible erroneous(?) after market quotes have a reported time of 5:17PM.
Posted by: RobBoss
at
November 2, 2007 6:13 AM [link]
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ANOTHER GREAT CALL BY BILL
LOOK at XOM...What did Bill say when this baby was trading around 95.00?
Thanks BILL I bought 2 Nov 95 puts that are now way in the $$$$...
Yesterday all PUMP AND DUMP...
Posted by: basketguy
at
November 1, 2007 9:41 AM [link]