The DJIA was up Friday +0.56 pct, but only +0.19 pct W/W. For the Nasdaq Composite, Friday’s gain was +1.21 pct, whereas the weekly gain was only +0.91 pct. The S&P 500 gained +0.48 pct on Friday, but only +0.27 pct on the week.

On Friday, there was a lot of media hype that Small Caps were joining the rally. Yes, the Russell 2000 did gain +0.74 pct on the day, but LOST -0.44 pct W/W.

I have noticed that there are increasing numbers of stories about foreign profits for US companies. The news seems to me to be written by promoters, not reporters.

What I think is happening at this point is that the excitement and froth of Asia-Pacific markets is being super-imposed on the psyche of US traders much like, for example, the 2005 hype of real-estate markets in South Florida, California and Las Vegas were being pushed at investors and home-owners in other US markets, as in get in now in these lagging markets before you find you can never afford to.

In the bigger picture, I don’t see how the gains in most of the Asia-Pacific markets are sustainable, just like I argued in the summer of 2005 that real estate in South Florida would soon weaken. These economies are growing at a rapid rate, but nowhere close to the growth rate of share prices, which has actually gone parabolic in many of these markets.

When the selling starts in global equity markets, I believe it will start with the weaklings, and those happen to be US, Japan, UK and Europe. Actually, the crack will first show in Asia-Pacific markets (ex-Japan), but the serious selling will occur in what I refer to as the weaklings. Those are the markets saddled by potential earnings and credit market “issues.”

I feel strongly about this, but I also know that the best tactic is to go with the flow, staying with rising prices until they start to pull-back.

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week.

I cannot recall the last time the US Jobs Report was given so much hype. It seems the word “tepid” has been redefined in the Webster’s Dictionary to mean just the opposite, ie, “enthusiastic”. All week, various Talking Heads, from the President himself to various minions and television “personalities” fawned over an estimated 110,000 net new jobs, many of which were created by government.

Rather than applauded, I think that any figure below 180,000, including the majority in high-paid, wealth-creating jobs, should be bemoaned. I mean, relatively tiny Canada (smaller than California population wise) reported about +50,000 net new jobs and not that much fuss was made over it.

And, yes, I did say there was no credible evidence of a booming retail sales environment in the US. The figures that came out on Friday morning show a healthy headlined +0.6 pct month-over-month growth (less highly incentivized auto sales, it was -0.4 pct), but most of that September increase had to do with higher commodity prices, such as gasoline at the fill-up station, and lower quantities of product at the same high prices. So, I don’t see that retail sales are booming. In fact, if you look carefully at the Econoday chart, which is what I did right before the Friday data was reported, you will see that the gains of the past couple months is worse than at any time since the 1Q2003, which happened to be right at the end of the last Bear market when consumers/traders were drained. Besides all I need to see for guidance in this area is look at the stock charts of the Retailers ($RLX 482.49 -12.75 and -2.57 pct W/W).

US Retail Sales for September.

The current levels for $RLX are below periods of 2005 and 2006. So, where is the beef? You know, these spin artists can only stretch the truth so far.

CNBC’s new line is “America is open for business,” but (ahem) who is buying?

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

RSI > 70 (12 of 31)

RSI < 30 (6)

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that traded Thursday with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

Weekly Impulse Report

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

THIS WEEK saw 30 GREEN industries, and 0 RED, no change from last week!

Of the Cara 100 components, 64 are green (last week: 78) , 12 red - (last week: 6). TEK counts as GREEN but does not appear below for lack of historical trading data:

The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):

ALL the following stock indices stayed GREEN this week: DJIA, NDX, Nasdaq Comp, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500.

The CRB commodity index stayed GREEN. GOLD & SILVER stocks stayed GREEN.

The US dollar index moved from red to neutral.

Bottom line: There was NO change in the “Green” industry count of 30, nor in major indices (all still green). Still, there was marginal deterioration beneath the surface: 10 of 31 industries closed below last week’s close; components of all indices showed less green, and more red.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29)

At the close of the week, the DJIA continued to move higher week by week, closing this week at 14093, which is a gain of only +27 points (+0.19 pct) W/W.

Although the media has been in a full-court press to try to hype this market higher, it has moved up +1.98 pct over three weeks from 13820. That’s an annualized gain of +34 pct, which is excellent, but not what it might seem.

General Motors (GM) has had three weeks of huge gains (+5.04 pct +4.09 pct and 11.62 pct), including a gain of +6.63 pct on Friday alone. So, GM has had a huge impact on the Dow 30.

Having said that, the S&P 500 has also had a major move up, from 1525.75 to 1561.80 (+2.40 pct), due, obviously not to GM but to more tech companies in that index.

The broad market indexes are now well above both the 50-day and 200-day Moving average technical lines of resistance. But, the Daily, Weekly and Monthly RSI-7 data continue to show the market is over-bought.

With earnings season coming up, we have to watch the post-quarter trading for signs of a market sell-off. As we saw with JC Penny (JCP), Boeing (BA) and others, earnings disappointments and negative news of any kind are being met with major sell-off’s.

As I pointed out a couple weeks ago, selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq Composite is stronger than the DJIA because it is not weighed down by Financials. But, if, and when the Bear takes hold, I suspect the reason will be tied to the credit market fiasco, and that situation could send tremors through the US economy, which would also hit the Tech stocks.

At this point, there is no evidence to show that the selling wave has begun for the broad market. But we must err on the cautious side here, I think. This week, Semi-conductors (SMH) sold down a huge -5.49 pct W/W, including a stunning drop Friday of -2.86 pct. These are signs of nervousness.

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week it was a case of 5 sector ETFs up, 5 down. That's consistent with the DJIA, of which 16 components were up and 14 down. Friday swung the numbers from serious losses to slight gains.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	77.17	0.62	0.81%	2.84%	2.98%	6.10%	36.39%	5.38%	22.45%	44.92%
XLP	28.28	0.20	0.71%	1.36%	1.22%	3.29%	7.61%	2.80%	4.74%	11.51%
XLU	41.39	-0.01	-0.02%	1.20%	3.66%	4.26%	12.41%	3.09%	1.62%	19.94%
XLB	43.34	0.36	0.84%	1.00%	2.90%	9.53%	25.22%	2.10%	11.73%	33.52%
XLY	37.98	0.32	0.85%	0.03%	3.40%	3.35%	-1.40%	-4.69%	-2.29%	3.40%
IYH	72.31	0.26	0.36%	-0.10%	2.15%	3.82%	8.80%	1.52%	4.46%	9.71%
XLI	41.27	0.13	0.32%	-0.75%	0.66%	4.38%	17.14%	2.05%	14.42%	19.17%
XLF	35.49	0.10	0.28%	-0.78%	3.77%	4.78%	-3.87%	-2.87%	-0.17%	0.37%
IYZ	33.85	0.19	0.56%	-0.97%	0.00%	3.74%	14.13%	-2.67%	7.36%	19.74%
SMH	36.34	-1.07	-2.86%	-5.49%	-5.12%	-2.15%	8.25%	-9.65%	4.91%	3.06%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Energy (XLE) was the #1 performer this week after being #9 for two consecutive weeks. But the Crude Oil near futures ($WTIC) moved to a record high weekly close at 82.74/bbl, and have stayed over 80 for most of the past several weeks, which explains the enthusiasm for this sector.

XLE was up +2.84 pct to close at 77.17.

I like the sector based on current period corporate cash flow and earnings per share metrics, but believe it is over-bought here as many of the major companies are guiding lower for these metrics going forward. So, when these stocks drop in price at all, triggering Sell Alerts when Daily or Weekly RSI-7 values fall below 70 (depending on your time horizon, ie, short or intermediate), I am quick to take profits.

The operative word is “profits”, which are bound to happen when you buy in the Accumulation Zone (on Buy Alerts that are triggered when the Daily RSI-7 period value moves up above 30) and sell in the Distribution Zone with a Sell Alert.

I am often asked if I always Buy on a Buy Alert or Sell on a Sell Alert, and the answer is “It depends”.

If I am trading a Fund, comprised on many component issues, I do. I also do if I am trading the stock that has few peers, like a Whole Foods Market (WFMI).

But whenever the stock has several correlated peers, like say the Las Vegas casino operators, or the Big Oil companies or Large Cap Goldminers, for example, I will look – at least for a day or two -- to the weight of the technical evidence in that industry group.

I say this often; a technical indicator is just an indicator. It is an aid to decision making, not an absolute scientific method of trading. But the use of technical indicators provides a disciplined approach to trading, which is a far superior tactic than say reacting to news and stories.

Moreover, when you see technical indicators moving in one direction and the news and stories doing just the opposite, you should ask questions and give the matter more thought. Your decision making improves – albeit your general level of skepticism elevates – when you begin to see through the veil of the so-called “news” and story info.

Whenever prices rise or fall, particularly when a trend or cycle reverses, there are reasons. You may not become aware of them for a long while, but your job is not to figure out the “why”, but only the “what” is happening in your portfolio.

When you are long, you want to be holding the stocks of what you believe to be quality companies or sector/industry Funds (like ETF’s) that are favored by the major drivers of market prices. When the trends and cycles of those prices start to reverse downward, you start to sell. This takes discipline, which the simple RSI technical indicator system provides.

Part of the reason that share prices in the Energy sector have been rising around the world is that Big Oil stocks in China and Brazil are on a tear. But, is that due to improving metrics across the globe or to the froth and enthusiasm of traders in China and Brazil chasing the stocks of favored sectors and industry groups, particularly the well-recognized names of the large caps?

I think a lot of what is going on today is that traders in the major economic markets (US, UK, Europe and Japan) see the cups overflowing in these other markets (ie, China and Brazil) and transfer that image onto the locally-based companies. If so, take heed because the economy in these leading G-7 markets is likely to slow in 2008 and may in some instances fall into recession, along with growing inflation. That combination will hurt the top and bottom line of the Big Oil companies that primarily operate in those domestic and regional economies.

Canada, for example, has enjoyed a terrific rate of economic growth in the past several years, and because it has managed to have the strongest fiscal performance in probably fifteen years of any G-7 nation, it has a high-flying currency (the Loonie), which is now 102.63 to the USD (even if the Toronto airport money changer is paying 92.53 hahaha). That situation will help stave off inflation (except in Alberta near the Oil Sands), and help Canadians buy second homes in Bahamas too (LOL), but will not help the economy (unless the manufacturers drop their prices to compensate for the high C$).

The largest financial services firm in Canada, RBC, is now forecasting a +1.8 pct Y/Y growth rate in GDP for Canada in 2008. That figure means a severe slowing in the economy. On a domestic basis, then, there is no reason to believe that the present cash flow and earnings metrics of the integrated oil companies in Canada are sustainable. And with the Province of Alberta wanting to grab a bigger share of royalties, Mr. Market is being red flagged.

This week in the Oil Patch, PetroBrazil (PBR +6.7 pct) and China National Offshore Oil (CEO +8.5 pct) were the big winners. Who else but? A week earlier, PBR was up +4.4 pct.

There seems no end to the frivolity – until there is.

As I said three weeks ago, and repeated the last two, “Smart traders will be watching for a Sell-Alert to realize their gains, and move into cash (or into over-sold but recovering stocks).“ Yes, on a risk-adjusted basis, there are attractive prices in other sectors and in other groups within the Energy sector. Dynamic markets ensure it.

Btw, for the past year (52-weeks), PBR is up +99 pct and CEO is up +118 pct. The Canadians I follow (IMO, SU and ECA) are up between +42 pct and +56 pct. US Big Oil (XOM and CVX) gained between +38 pct and +43 pct. These stocks have had their run. Expecting more is to be a market pig, and we know that pigs get slaughtered when going to the market. So, be wary of becoming a pig.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CEO	178.05	8.76	5.17%	8.54%	6.98%	34.23%	88.87%	48.51%	99.61%	117.82%
PBR	84.08	1.65	2.00%	6.67%	11.36%	25.29%	68.73%	23.03%	61.01%	98.72%
STO	33.82	1.04	3.17%	4.38%	-0.29%	6.15%	31.65%	0.96%	21.48%	45.34%
ECA	64.93	1.11	1.74%	3.71%	4.98%	5.17%	43.21%	2.08%	20.58%	45.98%
SU	99.09	0.03	0.03%	3.69%	4.51%	2.88%	34.07%	5.97%	20.50%	41.92%
XOM	93.48	0.82	0.88%	2.32%	0.99%	5.42%	26.14%	4.31%	20.79%	38.18%
TOT	79.00	0.96	1.23%	1.43%	-2.51%	1.37%	11.31%	-8.59%	9.54%	20.04%
IMO	48.81	0.50	1.03%	0.54%	-1.51%	2.76%	36.88%	0.87%	25.35%	56.24%
CVX	91.41	0.41	0.45%	-0.99%	-2.32%	0.84%	28.80%	-2.03%	18.45%	42.78%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) gained +1.00 pct on the week to close at 43.34, thanks to a gain on Friday of +0.84 pct.

The market is frothy. How I know this is that Brazil’s CVRD (RIO) has gained +11.4 pct in six sessions. Besides, two weeks ago I wrote, “Base metal miners like Brazil’s CVRD (RIO) were strong. RIO jumped +11.43 pct this week, and +24.51 pct over two weeks.

Yes, the fundamentals are improving, but those kind of gains in share prices must be realized or else they might be given back.”

What I was trying to do was set up your approach by keeping your finger close to the Sell Button, awaiting a Sell Alert. Then if, as and when it happens that Daily RSI-7 drops below 70 (intra-day basis if you have these systems), SELL. Lock in your gains. These gains in your portfolio will produce Buffett-type performance results for you. Is that not what you always dreamed about? So, why buy the stories of some other Dream Merchant? This is your portfolio, your life; so, manage it, live it.

And if a few of these stocks happen to rally a further +5 pct or +10 pct, forget it. Realized gains are crucial to long-term performance. Unrealized gains often turn into realized losses, which is the sole reason why the huge majority of traders (ie, about 80 pct) do not keep up to market average performance.

The performance tables I use happen to come from data from Investertech.com that is often incorrect, so it pays to double check the data. For example there are two 2:1 share splits in the RIO stock that are unaccounted for. The 52-week gain for RIO is not +50 pct, but really +200 pct, and that compares favorably to Rio Tinto’s (RTP) gain of +86 pct and BHP Billiton’s (BHP) gain of +113 pct.

These three, along with the Zug Metal Men Xstrata (XTA.L and XTA.S) that trades on London and Swiss markets, are the mega-cap gorillas of mining. Their share prices reflect the increase in corporate financial strength and performance metrics, but the question now is, for how much longer will metal prices boom, and share prices zoom, before they hit doom!

Long-time members of this community know I have ridden the metals Bull for a couple years, and you may even be surprised that in the past couple weeks I started talking about a metals commodity price bubble that would sometime come to an end. To repeat, what I am doing here, just as I did for the Energy sector, is to say these stocks are in the Distribution Zone, and will soon trigger Sell Alerts. It will pay handsome returns to stay close to the Sell Button.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RIO	35.92	1.82	5.34%	7.03%	5.87%	31.82%	24.64%	-31.31%	-12.22%	50.17%
RTP	372.40	7.34	2.01%	6.84%	8.44%	24.61%	82.46%	17.21%	50.93%	86.17%
BHP	84.75	1.09	1.30%	6.58%	7.82%	28.53%	118.03%	23.51%	68.49%	112.99%
GGB	30.00	0.60	2.04%	5.71%	14.42%	29.53%	82.70%	8.70%	55.44%	104.50%
TCK	52.61	0.56	1.08%	4.26%	10.27%	22.78%	-24.03%	6.11%	-27.57%	-20.47%
MT	78.41	-0.16	-0.20%	0.53%	0.06%	14.89%	92.18%	15.50%	44.27%	106.89%
TS	53.22	0.00	0.00%	-0.26%	1.14%	15.02%	9.69%	0.32%	11.06%	52.84%
PKX	186.24	1.95	1.06%	-1.55%	4.18%	13.31%	134.47%	31.17%	77.22%	177.89%
AA	38.13	0.05	0.13%	-1.70%	-2.53%	7.47%	30.00%	-15.81%	8.73%	43.35%
NUE	56.21	-0.39	-0.69%	-3.15%	-5.48%	-1.51%	3.14%	-11.02%	-15.73%	4.07%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABB	27.87	0.25	0.91%	3.34%	6.25%	17.10%	56.40%	11.39%	54.66%	97.66%
HON	61.71	0.83	1.36%	3.16%	3.77%	9.34%	36.83%	2.10%	31.33%	45.85%
ERJ	49.19	0.26	0.53%	2.63%	12.00%	17.65%	20.62%	-3.89%	5.42%	14.13%
FDX	107.51	1.12	1.05%	1.37%	2.63%	-1.53%	-2.06%	-6.04%	-0.96%	-4.17%
CAT	80.30	0.86	1.08%	-0.04%	2.38%	9.76%	31.29%	-4.51%	20.50%	15.96%
UTX	80.32	1.07	1.35%	-0.64%	-0.20%	5.49%	27.88%	8.56%	24.07%	21.00%
MMM	94.17	-0.19	-0.20%	-1.75%	0.63%	5.79%	20.33%	4.71%	22.76%	24.84%
GE	41.03	-0.57	-1.37%	-1.77%	-0.89%	1.69%	8.06%	5.21%	16.63%	13.28%
BA	96.69	0.43	0.45%	-5.44%	-7.91%	-2.68%	8.43%	-4.06%	6.43%	15.60%

XLI (Industrials) lost -0.75 pct this week to close at 41.27.

ABB ($27.87 +3.3 pct) was the winner on my monitor. Here is what I wrote last week:

A week ago I wrote, “Switzerland’s answer to General Electric is ABB, which was up +2.54 pct W/W and +10.21 pct over two weeks. That is a huge increase for a mature large cap company… I like the business this company does, and its management, financial strength, and operating metrics, but the stock is very expensive now. Selling, however, is best done with the help of Sell-Alerts.”

Two months ago (Aug 16), ABB hit an intra-day cycle low of $20.42. That is a move of +36.5 pct, which is an extreme one for a company with a market cap of over $63 Billion. So, when you see a stock with M-W-D RSI-7 (smoothed) levels of 80.5/76.9/83.2, then you ought to have fairly tight stops.

Honeywell (HON +3.2 pct W/W) was a winner this week. Value Line published a good report. The analyst projects cash flow, earnings and dividends growth that is superb, but says the 3 to 5-year price appreciation potential has been limited by recent stock gains (+37 pct YTD and +46 pct over 52-weeks). I concur.

(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

GE and MMM were losers this week, but the big loser was Boeing (BA -5.4 pct) on account of announcing the much ballyhooed Dreamliner would have a six-month production delay. A month earlier, the company said they were right on target.

If you wonder why I am skeptical of markets, and in particular the use of inside knowledge, take a look at the three-month chart of BA overlaid by XLI, GE, MMM, and HON for example. Some traders knew at the beginning of the month what was about to be announced, and they acted. The SEC can easily discover who these people are, but I suspect the SEC would rather serve and protect those traders than the People they are mandated to serve and protect.

You see, price charts tell you an awful lot about what goes on behind the scenes in markets. You get the news late, which is why I say don’t react to the news, but just watch the price action.

And don’t listen to the SEC or HB&B when they say there is full transparency in equity markets. The only thing these markets are too full of are cheaters and vested interests that are protected by the authorities.

You and I have to serve and protect our own portfolios; but by working together, we can.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was up this week by a single penny (+0.03 pct) to 37.98.

After XLY zoomed a week ago by +3.4 pct W/W, I stated,

”I attribute much of the strength to the hype this week that America can reflate its way out of problems, that a 110,000 jobs number is “a winner for Goldilocks”, and other “greatest stories never told”. All of it nonsense. A week ago, the big losers were Whirlpool (WHR), Starbucks (SBUX) and JC Penny (JCP). This week, pump, pump, pump… WHR was up 5.8 pct, SBUX +2.4 pct and JCP marvelous darling at +8.4 pct W/W. Simply put, the markets have failed as an effective pricing mechanism. Mr. Market has allowed the b.s. artists of Financial Entertainment TV to take control. Discover Financial Services told us this week that the US consumer is feeling yummy and well-heeled, and Mr. Market then waved the green flag. That was quite a run on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Next we’ll hear of the inventory problems and the write-offs and the drivers will be red-flagged.”

Imagine to my shock and horror (NOT and NOT!) that Whirlpool (WHR -5.32 pct) and JC Penny (JCP -9.34 pct) collapsed this week, red-flagged along with Brunswick Corp (BC -7.64 pct).

And, do you really believe it when a Talking Head explains pull-backs like that as merely “consolidating gains”? More likely, I say, your chain is being yanked.

But, as I opined a week ago, “This Goldilocks story (from Talking Heads) will continue as long as the Fed intends to reflate.” What traders have to do is tune out, and watch market prices, selling into strength when their stocks reach the Distribution Zone followed by Sell Alerts.

Nike (NKE) was running hard on Friday, up +3.5 pct, which lifted it to a gain of +4.6 pct W/W. Same thing with Ebay (EBAY), which ran up +2.1 pct on Friday to give the stock a gain of +3.0 pct W/W.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NKE	63.15	2.14	3.51%	4.64%	7.65%	10.34%	29.33%	6.21%	16.45%	40.65%
EBAY	39.90	0.82	2.10%	2.97%	2.26%	5.53%	32.25%	16.56%	17.18%	34.43%
DIS	35.47	0.46	1.31%	0.00%	3.14%	5.69%	3.71%	3.56%	2.31%	13.32%
CCL	50.23	-0.02	-0.04%	-1.12%	3.72%	12.78%	-1.41%	7.19%	10.79%	5.88%
SBUX	26.34	0.02	0.08%	-1.86%	0.53%	-4.70%	-25.28%	1.46%	-14.12%	-30.61%
TM	112.63	-1.05	-0.92%	-4.28%	-3.62%	-0.49%	-16.76%	-10.82%	-9.46%	-3.68%
WHR	89.27	-0.97	-1.07%	-5.32%	0.19%	-2.12%	5.45%	-19.64%	1.14%	0.44%
BC	22.36	-0.16	-0.71%	-7.64%	-2.19%	1.59%	-29.95%	-31.85%	-27.02%	-31.60%
JCP	62.29	-0.98	-1.55%	-9.34%	-1.70%	-3.01%	-20.20%	-17.45%	-25.62%	-14.71%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	47.06	0.16	0.34%	3.72%	7.81%	8.63%	-1.03%	-3.62%	-0.42%	-2.61%
BUD	52.87	0.49	0.94%	2.46%	5.76%	5.36%	7.42%	4.78%	1.32%	10.86%
PG	71.70	-0.07	-0.10%	1.23%	1.93%	5.74%	11.09%	13.94%	12.88%	14.89%
MO	70.06	0.11	0.16%	0.72%	0.76%	4.52%	7.92%	-2.79%	0.16%	18.50%
KO	57.80	0.61	1.07%	-0.46%	0.57%	2.48%	18.98%	9.82%	16.37%	31.21%
DEO	89.93	0.19	0.21%	-0.56%	2.51%	6.97%	13.08%	5.90%	9.14%	25.13%
WAG	38.82	0.14	0.36%	-1.22%	-17.82%	-14.27%	-15.74%	-13.92%	-15.48%	-12.88%
ABV	78.94	0.61	0.78%	-2.12%	7.94%	14.46%	60.77%	6.33%	38.27%	69.22%
PEP	71.78	0.01	0.01%	-2.66%	-2.02%	3.19%	14.45%	7.23%	11.88%	14.21%
WFMI	51.50	1.40	2.79%	-3.20%	5.19%	18.72%	13.24%	32.05%	16.59%	-18.59%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) recovered from last week’s loss to gain +1.36 pct W/W, closing at 28.28. Except for Walgreens (WAG), the stocks in this "defensive" sector have had a rather impressive run in the past month.

This week, Whole Foods Market (WFMI -3.2 pct) pulled back from recent gains.

Last weekend, I reported,

“WFMI was up a further +8.7 pct, which makes it a gain of +23.4 pct over the past 4 weeks. Gee, where was that RSI-7 a couple months ago? Oh, there we have it; the M-W-D was all 20’s on July 26. I recall it was a disaster in the news, but some of you were buying in the 38-40 range. It’s now $53.20… Today the WFMI has a M-W-D RSI-7 of 57.6/74.2/89.9 (smoothed) and 59.9/83.3/93.4 (unsmoothed), which means (i) its hot lately, and (ii) on its way (to recovery). Do I want to buy it here? Not unless the Daily RSI falls back an awful lot in the interim… But, that would be a long-term oriented portfolio decision… the kind that said I would be out about 70+ in January 2006 and back in at about 45 (or actually much lower with put write income) in February 2007. Then May and June would have been tough months, heading into that court hearing. As I say, these things tend to work out.

Wal-Mart (WMT +3.7 pct W/W) had a good week, and with the goings on with Molson Coors (TAP) and SABMiller combining certain operations, BUD also poured well this week, up +2.5 pct.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UNH	49.69	0.35	0.71%	4.17%	2.60%	-0.44%	-5.48%	-6.40%	-6.46%	0.14%
AMGN	58.17	0.34	0.59%	2.34%	2.83%	3.28%	-14.96%	3.97%	0.92%	-21.49%
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	1.05%	8.47%	41.68%
JNJ	65.94	-0.01	-0.02%	-0.47%	0.37%	4.34%	-0.69%	4.07%	6.49%	1.70%
BMY	29.77	0.27	0.92%	-1.06%	3.30%	4.90%	12.85%	-7.03%	8.06%	21.02%
PFE	25.26	-0.19	-0.75%	-1.25%	3.40%	3.99%	-3.92%	-2.77%	-4.54%	-8.64%
AET	53.14	0.01	0.02%	-1.28%	-2.08%	3.22%	23.93%	2.73%	19.60%	32.12%
DNA	77.25	0.93	1.22%	-1.32%	-0.99%	-2.20%	-5.56%	2.64%	-5.37%	-7.39%
NVS	53.52	-0.41	-0.76%	-1.44%	-2.62%	-1.51%	-7.95%	-4.05%	-3.52%	-7.31%
GSK	52.22	-0.04	-0.08%	-3.42%	-1.84%	-2.23%	-2.95%	-0.80%	-8.50%	-3.78%

IYH (healthcare) lost -0.10 pct this week to close at 72.31.

A week ago, I reported, “IYH gained +2.3 pct W/W to close at 72.38… Pfizer (+4.7 pct W/W) and Bristol Myers (BMY +4.4 pct) were going opposite to United Health (UNH -1.5 pct this week and -3.0 pct a week ago).

This week, the winner was UNH (+4.2 pct), while GlaxoSmithKline (GSK -3.4 pct) and Novartis (NVS -1.4 pct) were soft.

Over the past 12 months, Biomet (BMET), Aetna (AET) and Bristol Myers (BMY) have yielded excellent portfolio returns, but most of this sector has been a disappointment.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	233.56	4.55	1.99%	2.21%	7.76%	22.55%	16.36%	6.02%	12.80%	28.68%
LEH	64.63	0.49	0.76%	1.02%	4.70%	8.62%	-17.80%	-11.76%	-10.32%	-15.69%
UBS	57.30	0.25	0.44%	-0.78%	7.61%	10.47%	-6.66%	-6.03%	-5.80%	-8.32%
C	47.87	-0.45	-0.93%	-0.89%	2.57%	2.64%	-13.36%	-9.41%	-7.32%	-4.60%
CS	68.88	0.20	0.29%	-1.05%	3.84%	6.94%	-1.75%	-7.08%	-5.77%	13.08%
JPM	46.82	0.16	0.34%	-1.60%	2.18%	2.81%	-2.60%	-5.47%	-4.84%	-2.98%
HBC	96.87	-0.25	-0.26%	-1.86%	4.61%	7.74%	4.19%	3.27%	7.63%	2.32%
MER	75.19	-0.19	-0.25%	-1.93%	5.49%	0.72%	-19.68%	-12.08%	-12.42%	-9.98%
MS	67.25	0.19	0.28%	-2.39%	6.75%	1.72%	-17.61%	-7.11%	-16.01%	-11.92%
DB	131.40	-0.30	-0.23%	-2.78%	2.34%	5.04%	-2.91%	-10.56%	-6.84%	5.75%

A week ago, the Financial ETF (XLF) gained +4.6 pct, so it was not a surprise to see a pullback of -0.78 pct this week to close at 35.49.

It will be interesting to see what Richard Branson and Wilbur Ross end up offering for Northern Rock.

Even more interesting will be the reported $80-$100 billion fund being aggregated by HB&B to buy up the syndicated sub-prime debt they couldn't get the market to buy. I have been saying for a couple weeks now that these bankers have come to an agreement to protect themselves from the fall-out that started when Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch and others began to sell off securities of other banks at fire-sale prices. They first tried to lie to the public about the quality of these securities; then they said that the quality aspect was not so easily quantifies; and now they are saying they need a $100 billion back-stop fund plus the help of the major central banks of the world to stave a systemic collapse of the financial system. Why should we trust these bankers?

This week in the market, Goldman Sachs (GS +2.2 pct) was a winner, while Deutsche Bank (DB -2.8 pct), Morgan Stanley (MS -2.4 pct) and Merrill Lynch (MER -1.9 pct) were losers.

I’m just patiently waiting for the next shoe to drop. The core of the problem is most likely within the credit market fiasco, but as with any earthquake, there will be a serious of shocks, any one of which could be 'the big one'.

Regarding Citigroup (C), I think it is patently obvious that certain Talking Heads from Barron’s and CNBC have the knives out for Chuck Prince (“a terrific man, and a great Number Two” they say, but stupid for trying to rally the troops with a “We’re going to Kick Ass” campaign, they also say). These same people had it “in” for John Mack at Morgan Stanley and “out” for his predecessor.

In any case, it is interesting journalism to tell the camera that “Managing Directors at Citi are calling me to say that Chuck Prince can’t do the job?” If a journalist is working an angle, would he or she listen to the Managing Directors who support Mr. Prince? Would they tell us? To me, this is not news, it is a blatant attempt by people who are using their influence in the media to make the news. To that I ask, who is paying them to do it?

You see, I cannot listen to that crapola. Rumor-mongering has nothing to do with my portfolio. You see very little evidence of this kind of manipulative stuff on Bloomberg TV or BNN. Like me, you know where it comes from.

Btw, this week in a political discussion of the US Republican Party candidates, I was just amazed that a well-known news show journalist would dismiss Dr. Ron Paul as "someone who appeals mostly to the conspiracy theorists on the Internet". My jaw dropped. This is not journalism; it is a blatant example of how vested interests manage the political process in the US. The people who minimalize Ron Paul's candidacy are not the least bit interested in democracy. They are interested in having their own candidate win, and in the guise of journalism will say pretty much anything to do it, no matter how shameful.

The fact is that the American public ought to be thankful they have a Ron Paul speaking up as he does. Clearly, from the evidence of his Internet-based financial contributions, many people are becoming his supporters. I see him as a legitimate candidate who ought to be heard.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ADBE	46.12	0.63	1.38%	3.32%	5.63%	6.24%	15.53%	11.00%	8.77%	20.70%
ORCL	22.44	-0.02	-0.09%	1.17%	3.65%	11.81%	28.16%	9.46%	20.00%	18.11%
CSCO	32.92	0.12	0.37%	0.83%	-0.63%	4.31%	18.67%	10.47%	26.76%	34.75%
ADSK	50.80	0.84	1.68%	0.47%	1.66%	6.81%	25.25%	8.32%	28.15%	43.95%
INTC	25.55	0.12	0.47%	0.04%	-1.20%	2.49%	25.55%	-1.73%	24.63%	19.06%
INFY	51.69	-0.09	-0.17%	-1.41%	6.82%	9.49%	-7.40%	-0.60%	-3.44%	0.54%
QCOM	42.16	0.69	1.66%	-2.77%	-0.24%	6.92%	12.55%	-6.83%	-1.03%	8.27%
CTSH	81.85	0.66	0.81%	-4.59%	2.58%	13.57%	5.26%	-5.31%	-4.27%	6.44%
SAP	55.85	1.04	1.90%	-5.71%	-4.81%	-2.85%	4.98%	6.69%	19.93%	9.25%
SNDK	47.40	-1.30	-2.67%	-9.02%	-13.97%	-7.58%	13.61%	-12.92%	9.22%	-18.64%

This week, SMH (semi-conductors) plunged -5.49 pct to close at 36.34. The loss on Friday was -2.86 pct, which is a bigger loss on the day than any sector gained W/W. And yet Friday was a huge winner of a day for Tech (Nasdaq gained +1.21 pct on the day!)

SanDisk (SNDK -9.02 pct W/W after dropping -5.4 pct the prior week) was obviously out of favor.

Adobe (ADBE +3.32 pct) was a winner. SAP (SAP -5.71 pct) was another loser, which might have had something to do with Oracle’s (ORCL) bid for BEA Systems (BEAS +38 pct on Friday).

Isn't it interesting to see how one of America's gnomes, Carl Icahn, has the trading public eating out of his hands with respect to BEA Systems? As I see it, Icahn is a terrific storyteller and wholesaler. The retail public are obviously buying it.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) was dropped -0.97 pct W/W to close at 33.85, which is exactly where IYZ was two weeks ago AND three weeks ago.

Verizon (VZ +0.69 pct) and AT&T (T +0.36 pct) were up W/W, but the gain for T was due to Friday’s gain of +1.63 pct.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

This week, XLU (Utilities) had another strong week, gaining +1.20 pct W/W to close at 41.39, after gaining +2.43 pct the prior week.

I think the “No recession mañana!” headlines issued by Financial Entertainment TV on Friday helped save the week for Goldilocks.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.06	3.97	3.85	3.81
6 Month	4.12	4.08	4.02	4.00
2 Year	4.22	4.11	4.07	3.95
3 Year	4.23	4.13	4.11	3.98
5 Year	4.41	4.34	4.33	4.10
10 Year	4.68	4.64	4.64	4.41
30 Year	4.90	4.86	4.87	4.68

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.44	3.44	3.46	3.46
2yr AAA	3.46	3.44	3.39	3.48
2yr A	3.47	3.47	3.37	3.48
5yr AAA	3.55	3.54	3.50	3.48
5yr AA	3.53	3.55	3.45	3.43
5yr A	3.76	3.70	3.72	3.71
10yr AAA	3.83	3.82	3.76	3.68
10yr AA	3.79	3.77	3.74	3.62
10yr A	3.96	3.95	3.89	3.81
20yr AAA	4.45	4.44	4.29	4.23
20yr AA	.5U`	4.63	4.48	4.64
20yr A	.	4.45	4.30	4.46

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.87	4.78	4.77	4.76
2yr A	5.02	4.93	4.88	5.04
5yr AAA	4.93	4.83	4.77	4.91
5yr AA	5.26	5.18	5.19	5.18
5yr A	5.31	5.26	5.24	5.18
10yr AAA	5.53	5.44	5.52	5.30
10yr AA	5.71	5.66	5.71	5.82
10yr A	5.84	5.75	5.80	5.81
20yr AAA	5.88	5.83	5.95	6.01
20yr AA	6.10	6.05	6.32	6.18
20yr A	6.21	6.16	6.28	6.13

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Within the US Treasury market, the yields strengthened from +3 basis points for the 30-year long bond to +15 pct for the 2-year, which pulled down Bond prices a little. A week ago, the lift was a respective +4bp and +10bp.

As I have opined,

“(this ongoing) move in T-bonds seemed appropriate as capital was shifting back to equities, perhaps following the reflation theme, which is undeniably linked to the prospects for higher inflation and interest rates, and speculative risk, in the future… Should central banks be willing to let the USD slide further here as a result of pumping more liquidity into the banking system, that’s a possibility. That only means a short pop in equity prices however because the resultant lift in interest rates, especially at the short end (as happened Friday) is certain to have a negative impact on the housing/mortgage/credit market problems at some point... If you think back to when these problems surfaced, it was June and July, when the 2-year Treasury Note was yielding 4.90-5.00 pct. Relief came when the Fed (and other central banks) came to the rescue, driving the yield on the 2-year all the way down to 3.89 pct at week’s end Sept 18… But that 2-year rate is back to (4.22 pct now). So, keep your eye on it. Any higher inflation numbers, significant drop in the $USD, evidence of bank failures/difficulties, heating up of the economy (which will crowd out the bond market), or speculative price increases in commodities and/or penny stocks, will send rates higher… That’s the dilemma facing central banks. If market rates rise to compensate for growing risk, then central banks are forced to inject more liquidity, which helps relieve pressure in the short term, but increase it further out in time.

Traders can follow this battle by watching the spreads between 3-month CD’s and 90-day T-Bills, or between 2-year AA Corporate bond yields and 2-year Treasury Notes. The relation between treasury yields (the so-called riskless rate) and corporate bond yield spreads is an interesting subject, particularly when there is a disruption in credit markets. If you are academically inclined, there are many papers worth reading on this subject. Here is one from the University of Manitoba. Other studies focus on the relation between corporate yields and swap rates (the LIBOR-Swap spread)…. If you get a chance to read the summaries of current analyses of these markets, you will see that, despite what HB&B has been spewing to the media …, there is a lot of uncertainty in the bond market. It could take a year or more to resolve, and in the interim there could be failures of financial institutions as Treasury Secretary Paulson flat-out stated in a recent Bloomberg interview. There could also see further rounds of liquidity injections, which will serve to pump up the commodity price balloon that I refer to.”

A week ago, I wrote, “there was a huge increase in the yield for the 3-month T-Bills, from 3.64 pct to 3.85 pct, which is an increase of +21 bp.” This week the yield popped up another +21 bp, to +4.06 pct… so be watchful.

Traders must also watch the spread between the European LIBOR and US Treasury markets. As long as that spread is widening, the $USD is going to be under pressure.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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A week ago, TLT dropped from 88.72 to 88.22 (-0.50 pct). This week, TLT dropped a further -0.74 pct to 87.63... “amidst the bankers telling us all is well and bond traders not believing it”.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

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SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AGG	99.45	-0.19	-0.19%	0.59%	-0.57%	-0.45%	-0.46%	1.71%	-0.30%	0.11%
IEF	83.05	-0.28	-0.34%	-0.18%	-0.99%	-1.48%	0.45%	3.36%	0.69%	1.11%
SHY	80.82	-0.09	-0.11%	-0.19%	-0.54%	-0.28%	0.97%	1.18%	0.89%	1.01%
TIP	100.90	-0.13	-0.13%	-0.39%	-1.11%	-1.27%	1.68%	2.81%	0.70%	1.40%
TLT	87.63	-0.43	-0.49%	-0.74%	-1.23%	-2.54%	-1.62%	4.28%	0.27%	0.03%
FNM	66.04	0.09	0.14%	-1.87%	8.60%	7.77%	10.32%	-0.48%	22.36%	12.72%
FRE	60.63	-0.15	-0.25%	-4.41%	2.75%	5.68%	-10.69%	-1.00%	1.02%	-11.81%
CFC	18.74	0.46	2.52%	-7.46%	-1.42%	-3.50%	-55.50%	-48.91%	-44.24%	-48.56%

Freddie Mac (FRE lost -4.41 pct vs gain of +7.5 pct vs loss of -2.22 pct the previous two weeks), Fannie Mae (FNM lost -1.87 pct vs gain of +10.7 pct vs loss of -3.05 pct the previous two weeks) and Countrywide Financial (CFC lost -7.46 pct vs gain of +6.5 pct vs loss of -3.06 pct) showed a remarkable turnaround. But, this is like rolling dice.”

You heard that from me a week ago. This is the result of algorithm-based (“black box”) trading and extreme hype coming and going from Talking Heads.

I seem to recall some funny stuff going on in Rome in an earlier era as that Empire collapsed. What’s the difference?

To use my prior writing, “Two weeks ago, traders were getting the message that the problems of the housing market and mortgage loan market in the US will take maybe a year or two to resolve, and (last) week – until Friday at least – the story was “be happy; no problem mon” and traders believed it. More than likely, though, it was the HB&B prop trading desks being told to hit the buy button. How else can you explain Fannie Mae jumping +10.7 pct in a single week, or Hovnanian (HOV) gaining +12.4 pct W/W. These numbers are ridiculous. The only explanation is that the Fed and HB&B have worked a deal to reflate. In that case, buy Gold! There will be greater security in Gold than these mortgage lenders and housebuilders.”

This week, traders caught the message. They sold off these financial plays and bought more gold ($GOLD was up +6.50 to a new 27-year weekly high close of $753.80.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

A week ago, the $CRB index lost -4.46 (-1.34 pct) W/W. This week, the index gained +4.29 (+1.30 pct) to close at 333.50. That means six weekly gains in the past seven weeks. The only loss was a week ago, which I opined “had a lot to do with Prof. Poole from the St. Louis Fed making his silly comment at 2pm (the prior ) Friday that the Fed might lift rates. That got everybody else at the Fed and HB&B lined up (a week ago) to give Mr. Market his marching orders (“No problem here; we have it all under control.”) Ergo, equities up, commodities down… For now.”

This is the here and now. :-)

The 50-day Moving Average for $CRB is now at 318.23 and the 200-day MA is 311.97.

As long as the $USD is headed south, $CRB is going to be going north. Fool those commodity producers once, shame on the Fed; but, fool them twice, shame on the producers. They are not that stupid to be producing metals, and oil & gas, and agri products in exchange for wooden nickels.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

The Crude Oil futures market ($WTIC in the US for Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) gained +1.52/bbl (+1.87 pct W/W) to close at 82.74, a record high weekly close.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is 76.041 and the 200d MA is 67.09, so Oil is far above both the 50d MA and 200d MA lines. For now.

The question is, what happens if and when the major economies of the US, UK, Europe and Japan slow down. Does anybody really think that the flaming hot economies of the BRIC markets are going to accelerate from here, to make up the difference?

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

A week ago, I wrote, “This week, $GOLD consolidated with a small drop of -2.80 (-0.37 pct) to close at 747.20. A week ago, $GOLD rallied a further 11.10 (+1.50 pct W/W), and $SILVER rocketed another +0.30 (+2.20 pct) on top of previous very strong weeks. Yes, there was a sell-off this week, but it was a mild one for gold, a little bigger for silver (-3.09 pct). The others in the PM group, however, soared this week. So, I don’t think the selling is anything more than consolidating the previous gains.”

Do you think I had it right?

This week, $GOLD lifted +6.50 (+0.88 pct) to a record high weekly close of 753.80. And $SILVER jumped +0.41 (+3.06 pct) to 13.90. $PLAT jumped +26.40 (+1.90 pct) and $PALL rocketed +9.50 (+2.57 pct).

Thanks to an increasingly weaker $USD, the PM beat goes on.

For $GOLD, the 50day MA is now 707.70 and the 200d MA is 673.84.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.41/oz (+3.06 pct) to close at 13.90. Like for $GOLD, though, $SILVER was a loser on Friday. Somebody wants to make you think that something so precious is a loser. Hahaha.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is 12.86 and the 200d MA is 13.20.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

This week, $PLAT gained +26.40/oz (+1.90 pct) to 1414.20. The previous week, the gain was +17.90/oz (+1.31 pct). The week before that the gain was +33.80/oz (+2.53 pct), and the one before that $PLAT gained +32.30/oz (+2.48 pct).

Do you see a pattern here? Check the $USD. The Chinese, who have ‘a Yuan too pegged’, are absolutely delighted to be driving the investment demand for Platinum. To them, it is even better than Gold.

On Aug 18, $PLAT closed the week at 1233.20. A gain of +181 (+14.7 pct) in eight weeks. Now that’s a Bull run. Share prices can run up faster, but, remember, Platinum is money.

The 50d MA is 1309.89 and the 200d MA is 1270.87.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

This week, $PALL gained 9.50/oz (+2.57 pct) to close at 383.80. For the previous two weeks, the gains were +6.32 pct and +2.74 pct, so $PALL has also had a nice run in the past three weeks.

The 50d MA is 350.18 and the 200d MA is 358.92.

A week ago I pointed out that “Somebody wrote to me recently about an industry demand shift for the metal, and I took exception that every time there is a run in these metals, there is a lot of carefully timed misinformation and outdated “news” dumped into the market… Now you see why I say some of the things I do.”

The problem with markets is that the noise is unbelievable. There are simply too many vested interests and paid-and-bought-for Talking Heads. Deaf persons would better deal with it. Even they could see that when certain lips are moving, the storyteller is lying.

Just follow the trends and cycles. Spend your time trying to stay on the right side, which minimizes your risks. While others will tell you there is no value to this glitter, I repeat that trading is all about price. When prices are lifting, the item is obviously more valuable to somebody.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

This week, $COPPER lost -7.30/contract (-1.96 pct) to close at 365.25. I suppose the Metal Men of Zug have a better idea than you or me as to why.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 345.01 and the 200d MA is 323.85, so the current price (365.25) is still well above both the 50d MA and 200d MA, which is a fair indication that either recession is not close at hand or the $USD is going to continue its southbound journey. The American peso is something that the Big Four miners have little interest in – unless they receive more of them.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AUY	13.62	0.17	1.26%	14.84%	15.62%	15.52%	10.46%	11.18%	-7.47%	55.66%
MDG	37.07	-0.27	-0.72%	10.79%	11.99%	21.86%	41.00%	27.26%	35.39%	57.21%
BVN	53.17	1.87	3.65%	9.31%	11.28%	24.40%	92.58%	29.84%	71.46%	104.50%
KGC	16.37	0.30	1.87%	7.41%	9.28%	17.85%	43.35%	21.62%	14.00%	42.22%
AEM	54.68	-0.01	-0.02%	5.60%	9.80%	13.59%	40.49%	27.61%	46.28%	75.82%
GG	32.53	0.48	1.50%	5.41%	6.45%	18.90%	18.98%	21.93%	26.58%	49.84%
NEM	47.57	0.54	1.15%	4.41%	6.35%	4.90%	7.62%	15.71%	9.76%	13.72%
GFI	18.80	0.25	1.35%	3.75%	3.92%	12.04%	2.56%	10.26%	-3.69%	8.11%
ABX	42.28	0.31	0.74%	3.32%	4.97%	13.66%	41.74%	32.62%	46.04%	45.19%

This week, $XAU gained +7.77 (+4.54 pct) to close at 179.04. And the gain on the previous Friday (+1.70 pct) means that was a heck of a six session run.

The 50d MA is 153.13 and the 200d MA is 143.27.

There are a lot of happy faces in this community, but just remember, the public does not always praise the messenger. Don’t get fickle on me. These PM markets are not always headed northbound. In fact, once the expressway turns south for all vehicles, the yellow-colored ones almost always join the crowd. They may be last to turn around, but they have this powerful engine and emotional drivers that usually speed up to catch the rest. So, don’t get caught in a smash-up. Move your stops up, tighten your seat belts, and don’t hand back those hard-earned gains.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

There is really not a lot I can add at this point. It seems I have made believers out of many of you, and the daily Discourse is moving along at a high level.

If I have one word of advice, it’s that you should all be on the look-out for new people coming into the community who may not have taken our non-promotional values to heart. If you happen to spot a lot of hype at the same time that share prices of the hyped stock are spinning their wheels on rather high daily trading volume (compared to the average), then speak up. This is where the ‘wisdom of crowds’ can play a big role.

In other words, higher PM prices are fine, but we must remain open-minded and vigilant.

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The $USD lost ground again, dropping -0.10 (-0.13 pct) to close the week at 78.21. For a while there it traded with a 77 handle.

”This chart looks like a train track into the ocean. Nobody knows how far it can go down. (From a prior WIR)” Well this week, the Fed and HB&B did what they could to plug holes into the dike holding back the ocean. Do you think these people have more fingers than the dike has holes? I guess we’ll find out. (Last week’s WIR after the $USD had gained some strength)”

This week: same old, same old.

The following data is a simulation of the M3 as of the past week.

“US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates. They have no option under the circumstances. The economy is relatively strong, but the credit markets are imploding.”

Then last week I wrote, “I will add that the Fed and HB&B are now saying they have the problem under control. It’s good to put these things on the record. Later, when the truth comes out, you can, I think, call a person an idiot without slandering them. You can point to the results and record of accomplishment, what I call “proof of concept”. I think in politics there is too high a burden on a person to explain things they did or said ten years ago, and at the same time not enough burden to justify their continued existence (as persons of power) on the basis of what they did in the past year. We make fun of the Helicopter Ben thing, but that was many years ago, under different circumstances. The person has to be judged on the decisions and statements that are being made now, in a difficult situation.”

I don’t know how the present $USD decline will turn out. I suspect that Michael Panzner has it right when he opines that if and when the US economy goes into recession, the $USD is likely to rally. Among other reasons, less products (at inflated prices) would be imported.

But that is a Big Picture scenario, while I have difficulty seeing things week to week, certainly month to month.

I do think that the Fed will not want to cut rates again soon, and that may help the $USD, but if, as and when the US equity market crashes, ballooning the average dividend yields (and removing the need for corporations to continue cranking up the dividend payouts), and killing a lot of deals on the burner at Humungous Private Equity Corp, and putting a lot of US Housebuilders and Financial Institutions into a solvency situation, then the Fed will have to cut. And then the $USD will have to sink again. And then the Precious Metals Group will have to rise again.

It’s just a matter of timing these events.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

The Euro ($XEU) this week gained +0.41 (+0.29 pct) to close at 141.76.

The Euro’s 50d MA is 138.35 and the 200d MA is 134.77.

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

This week, the Pound lost -0.81 (-0.40 pct) to close at 203.41.

The Pound lost -0.37 (-0.18 pct) a week ago too. But the week before that it had gained +2.52 (+1.25 pct) to close at 204.59.

The 50d MA is 201.89 and the 200d MA is 198.96. The recent high was 206.40 (July).

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -0.37 (-0.43 pct) to close at 85.12. A week ago the Yen dropped -1.67 !! (-1.92 pct W/W) to close at 85.49. If the Bank of Japan has no interest in raising rates, it will keep falling, and the Yen Carry Trade will keep the global equity market in a rally. But, at some point, Japan will run into a crisis because imported oil and other necessary goods and services will simply become extravagant purchases.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Loonie traded up +0.78 (+0.77 pct) to close at 102.63 American.

Tell that to the money-grubbing foreign exchange operators in the Arrivals Terminal 3 at Toronto International Airport who are calling it 92.53. I figure these people are paying off so many politicians under the table they have to rip off the unsuspecting public just to make a buck. Giving these phonies the usual bankers’ grease of 4 or 5 points is to be expected (although with no competition, it’s disappointing); but ten points?! There ought to be a Royal Commission.

The Loonie’s 50d MA is 96.92 and the 200d MA is 91.16, which aren’t even in the same world with the current price 102.63).

Now if it took 200 days to change the electronic board of the currency store at the Toronto Airport, I could understand a rate of 92.53, but we’re talking speed of light here, and the gap between 102.63 and 92.53 cannot be justified. That is piracy.

”Parity will take some getting used to and adjustment. (WIR#39)”
“Markets tend to overshoot” (WIR#40) :-)

Speaking of shooting something, you know what I am thinking about that exchange desk at the Airport. (LOL)

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International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe. All green arrows Friday.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (ie, $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FXI	202.25	9.85	5.12%	5.56%	12.36%	29.82%	73.75%	43.96%	83.46%	140.20%
IFN	57.48	0.91	1.61%	5.33%	5.86%	15.65%	26.78%	22.04%	42.56%	29.84%
EWZ	79.62	1.87	2.41%	2.55%	7.46%	24.21%	70.49%	17.49%	54.27%	92.60%
EWC	34.23	0.51	1.51%	1.94%	4.58%	10.10%	38.58%	8.91%	25.57%	46.28%
QQQQ	53.53	0.87	1.65%	1.34%	4.12%	8.76%	23.80%	8.01%	20.13%	26.85%
TRF	70.98	0.98	1.40%	1.27%	3.36%	15.17%	-19.84%	-3.28%	-4.38%	5.16%
EWU	26.69	0.18	0.68%	1.18%	3.45%	8.01%	13.33%	0.76%	8.50%	19.74%
IEV	122.34	0.69	0.57%	1.11%	2.99%	8.06%	15.85%	0.53%	9.28%	24.24%
SPY	156.35	0.91	0.59%	0.32%	2.47%	5.01%	10.60%	1.27%	8.08%	14.73%
EWJ	14.54	0.02	0.14%	-0.75%	1.54%	7.07%	2.39%	-1.16%	-0.62%	6.21%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	42.64	2.65	6.63%	11.62%	16.19%	24.61%	44.79%	13.59%	35.93%	30.56%
WMT	47.06	0.16	0.34%	3.72%	7.81%	8.63%	-1.03%	-3.62%	-0.42%	-2.61%
AXP	63.23	0.78	1.25%	3.49%	6.50%	7.28%	4.75%	-0.16%	11.89%	9.22%
HON	61.71	0.83	1.36%	3.16%	3.77%	9.34%	36.83%	2.10%	31.33%	45.85%
XOM	93.48	0.82	0.88%	2.32%	0.99%	5.42%	26.14%	4.31%	20.79%	38.18%
IBM	117.81	-0.24	-0.20%	1.30%	0.01%	2.33%	21.12%	7.81%	23.14%	39.09%
HPQ	51.55	-0.06	-0.12%	1.28%	3.53%	6.55%	23.86%	8.87%	25.36%	34.17%
PG	71.70	-0.07	-0.10%	1.23%	1.93%	5.74%	11.09%	13.94%	12.88%	14.89%
MCD	57.02	0.77	1.37%	1.15%	4.68%	2.83%	29.97%	10.40%	22.28%	35.02%
MSFT	30.17	0.26	0.87%	1.11%	2.41%	3.89%	1.04%	0.33%	5.71%	6.65%
MO	70.06	0.11	0.16%	0.72%	0.76%	4.52%	7.92%	-2.79%	0.16%	18.50%
VZ	45.53	-0.15	-0.33%	0.69%	2.82%	7.08%	20.39%	9.90%	21.84%	23.09%
T	42.29	0.68	1.63%	0.36%	-0.05%	4.57%	21.00%	4.47%	9.39%	25.86%
INTC	25.55	0.12	0.47%	0.04%	-1.20%	2.49%	25.55%	-1.73%	24.63%	19.06%
DIS	35.47	0.46	1.31%	0.00%	3.14%	5.69%	3.71%	3.56%	2.31%	13.32%
MRK	53.51	0.47	0.89%	0.00%	3.52%	8.01%	21.56%	5.40%	15.42%	25.14%
CAT	80.30	0.86	1.08%	-0.04%	2.38%	9.76%	31.29%	-4.51%	20.50%	15.96%
KO	57.80	0.61	1.07%	-0.46%	0.57%	2.48%	18.98%	9.82%	16.37%	31.21%
JNJ	65.94	-0.01	-0.02%	-0.47%	0.37%	4.34%	-0.69%	4.07%	6.49%	1.70%
UTX	80.32	1.07	1.35%	-0.64%	-0.20%	5.49%	27.88%	8.56%	24.07%	21.00%
C	47.87	-0.45	-0.93%	-0.89%	2.57%	2.64%	-13.36%	-9.41%	-7.32%	-4.60%
DD	49.06	0.26	0.53%	-0.99%	-1.01%	2.12%	0.04%	-4.74%	-0.69%	8.73%
PFE	25.26	-0.19	-0.75%	-1.25%	3.40%	3.99%	-3.92%	-2.77%	-4.54%	-8.64%
JPM	46.82	0.16	0.34%	-1.60%	2.18%	2.81%	-2.60%	-5.47%	-4.84%	-2.98%
AA	38.13	0.05	0.13%	-1.70%	-2.53%	7.47%	30.00%	-15.81%	8.73%	43.35%
MMM	94.17	-0.19	-0.20%	-1.75%	0.63%	5.79%	20.33%	4.71%	22.76%	24.84%
GE	41.03	-0.57	-1.37%	-1.77%	-0.89%	1.69%	8.06%	5.21%	16.63%	13.28%
AIG	68.09	-0.04	-0.06%	-1.87%	0.65%	4.82%	-5.63%	-1.76%	2.18%	1.10%
HD	33.44	0.01	0.03%	-2.28%	3.08%	-6.28%	-18.58%	-18.32%	-12.05%	-11.77%
BA	96.69	0.43	0.45%	-5.44%	-7.91%	-2.68%	8.43%	-4.06%	6.43%	15.60%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The Value Line reports last week were for General Electric (GE), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Honeywell (HON), IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC). These, in my opinion, are all high quality companies, but General Electric and Intel are the ones I have Cara 100-rated.

Stocks however are different than companies. If the Cara 100 was a list of “Timeliness” recommendations, the performance of this list of five over the past 52 weeks shows the Cara 100 ones have been under-performers by a wide margin: GE +13.3 pct, HPQ +34.2 pct, HON +45.9 pct, IBM +39.1 pct, and INTC +19.1 pct.

No matter, the Cara Global 100 list is comprised of companies I like in a portfolio because I like the management, the industry, the margins, ROE, and so forth. And, I recognize that good arguments could be made for the others because they all happen to be in my Cara US 100.

For “Timeliness”, I look mostly at the Relative Strength Index technical indicator for various timeframes (RSI-7 period for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily price series) to determine if I ought to be Accumulating or Distributing, but that discussion is for another day.

(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 21: next one is due Dec. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 14: next one is due Dec. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Dec. 7)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Dec. 14)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Dec. 7)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug 10: next one is due Nov 9)

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Wrap up:

Without my templates for screenshots and the routine for uploads to my web server, I just cancelled the 30-some odd screenshots for today (Knobias Cara 100 tables, David’s RSI tables, Jock’s Impulse tables and so many other screen shots I take as I work myself through this WIR. I even got a replacement large screen monitor this morning to enable me to take the larger screenshots that the desktop CRT cannot handle. But, all for naught. I simply cannot afford to put in more time to figure out something that I’m going to change again on Tuesday after I get my laptop back from the shop.

As you know, we are coming up to a few important dates in my calendar.

If any of you are going to be in Nassau Bahamas on Tuesday Oct 23, I’m sure that one of my private bankers would like to extend an invitation (through me) to a cocktail reception in honor of their new offices in the Centre of Commerce at the British Colonial Hilton. See Annual Report.

My primary private banker in Nassau (EFG Bank & Trust) will also be attending an International Trusts & Tax Planning Conference at the New York City Marriott East Side 525 Lexington Ave at 49th Street from Oct. 15-17, staying for a few days through the 20th. If you would like to meet, please contact me and I’ll set it up.

I also deal with Bank of Bahamas, which is a well-run bank, and one btw that allows its clients to deposit checks drawn on US banks, with three-day clearing and settlement in B$. Starting Jan 2, 2008, that will be helpful to my company.

On Oct. 21 and 22, I will be attending the Cambridge Natural Resources Conference in Toronto. Some of you have decided to join me in meeting some noted minerals explorationists, like Rob McEwen, Steve Wilkinson, and others who I have written about in these pages. It’s a free show and everybody is invited. Send me a note if you plan to attend.

Finally, “Lessons From the Trader Wizard” goes from publisher (ISI Publications) to printer at the end of the month. I can assure you the publisher wanted to send it several months ago, but you know, a first time author just can’t let go.

It’s been a slice. Have a good one. Wherever you are in this big world, we are connected. Not always in agreement, but definitely discussing, listening, thinking, improving…

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p.s., With respect to the last sentence, thank you "onlineaces". You are definitely proving the concept that there is wisdom of crowds, certainly within this community. And thanks to the comments of others who have contributed to the Wharton paper.

You know, when I was organizing and recruiting for Qtrade Canada in the 1Q 2000, I was hugely impressed by how rapidly the young team came together. This was initially a discount brokerage operation, so I hired all the 26-33 y.o. supervisors and managers I could from the competition in the city of Vancouver. After three months of watching that staff mature (average age probably 29), I told anybody who would listen that in another 3 to 6 months, I would put my team of 20 up against any in the country, or in North America for that matter. In the first year of business, starting from concept with minimal capital (under C$1 million or less than US$750k), the Report On Business ranked the firm 4th out of 13 online brokers, on their way to 1st place where they are today.

I have the same feeling about the Cara Community. Absolutely superior. Thank you. I knew that when we started this blog and community you would come through; but the striking thing is, I have never met over 99 pct of you, and have no knowledge of who you are other than your nickname!

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