(WIR#39): What is for sure is that the credit market problems that surfaced in June will take at least a year and require agreements between the major banks of the world to resolve. In the interim, despite the helping support of central bankers to provide additional liquidity, many financial institutions will fail and/or be taken over by stronger ones.

Muddling through the process, central bankers will try to ensure enough liquidity to help private equity companies to complete the deals they lined up and those that will become available under the present circumstances, and they want to help those financially strong corporations interested in taking on more debt to pay out higher dividends. These deals contribute to what people call the Wealth Effect.

‘Wealth effect’ is an expression that is akin to little more than taking money out of one pocket and putting it into another to induce them to do something they ought not to… In the context of commercial lending, does the bank really care as long as somebody is there to make the payments or collect the loan collateral in the event payments are not?

In other words, ‘wealth effect is part of the psychology of credit markets, a creation of the Sell-side. Just another challenge in the daily life of the Buy-side.

Now we are told that one of the largest and strongest banks of the world, UBS, is going to write off $3.41 billion in loans… Usually, when you see one or more of the major banks talking like this, it means they all will, and that means that all bank customers are going to get squeezed, and in the process end up having banks seize assets where loans are not being repaid as per earlier agreements. Typically these things happen in Bull markets. They happen once every 10 or 15 years and in my whole life, I haven’t seen it happen in a Bull market yet.

Credit squeezes by banks are bad for embattled home-owners too because high bid prices for homes are the result of the bidders being able to finance the purchase through available credit. When credit of a part of the market is squeezed, like for sub-prime borrowers, it is almost always the case that there is a squeeze on the borrowing practices of the typical prime rate borrowers as well. That is what is happening today.

… There is a reality to life, and you are at risk if you choose to ignore it, and instead believe the stories of goldilocks and make-believe. Credulity syndrome is the term I use for losers. Too many people are afflicted.

When banks tighten, and central banks liquefy, as they are doing today, having cash is an important asset, but there is nothing so important as having gold and silver money at times like that. The more paper money that is printed, the more it is depreciated (because much of it is misspent/wasted), and the higher the value of gold and silver, and the bigger are the winners who hold it. The losers will continue to be those who borrow to spend unnecessarily – individuals, corporations and governments alike.

Losers in the markets will be traders who do not recognize that this is a bad time to be investing in companies that make or sell goods and services that are not essential to sustaining life, or on financial institutions that lend (since this is a time these companies are bent on collecting and having to write off bad debts).

The story that changed this week, other than the one that HB&B have their act together in writing off gazillions of dollars of asset-backed paper of dubious quality, is that over the horizon the corporate earnings picture is brightening. Somehow, opines S&P and Thomson Financial analysts, the earnings of the Tech sector will grow +20 pct to +22 pct per annum over the next five quarters.

Presumably, they cannot see past the next five quarters. I’m left wondering if they can see into the current one. In fact, I made a statement this week about the possibility they are smoking stuff that warps the brain.

However, trading being what it is, it behooves us to investigate because that’s the kind of number that buyers want to hear, and there could be a lot of buying. Net buying, of course, raises prices, and we trade prices. We like to buy them low and sell them high.

Problem is they are already high. So we must be extra cautious. These analysts have fooled us before you know. Why, it was just in March 2000, at the apex of the corner of the previous Bull market – right before the collapse – that 98.5 pct of all analysts recommendations for Dow 30 stocks were Strong Buy, Buy or Hold. That meant just 1.5 pct recommended a Sell or Strong Sell.

Although in March 2000 the correct decision for the great majority would have been to listen only to the Strong Sell recommendations, there were so few of them you missed them simply by blinking. But our heads were spinning at the line-up of Talking Heads from Wall Street to CNBC Street to tell us their parent company, the venerable General Electric, had a stock that was under-priced at 50 times earnings.

Oh, the mind boggles at the stuff that comes out of the mouths of Wall Streeters, at times.

So, now we are left wondering if this 20-22 pct annualized earnings figure for the Tech sector is credible and incredible or simply lacks credibility. They have thrown down the gauntlet; now it’s our call.

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week.

On Friday morning, as on the first Friday every month, the US Jobs Report reports was published by the Labor Dept.

We pay attention because we recognize that the data and the hype is used by powerful interest groups to try to move market prices in one direction or another.

A few years ago, the key report used by these large capital pools was the M1, 2 and 3 monetary aggregates. Now, at a time that data is important, the Fed authorities don’t want us to pay attention. They even scrapped the M3. Sometime in the future, after the public catches on to the real utility of the data, they will select different data to spin their stories. This ‘spin the player’ is part of the game that goes on in trading the capital markets.

I reported at the time, “Today’s Jobs Report was “stronger than expected” and wage gains were higher than expected, so yields will rally (bonds down).” The wage gains were ignored, and the 110,000 number was paraded by TV Talking Heads like it was magic. Unfortunately, it was 70,000 jobs less than what America needs to stay the course.

Moreover, there were too many new jobs created that have nothing to do with building economic wealth. That’s the problem that ails America today. That, and this totally phony reportage by financial TV shows that on Friday I called “unadulterated trash” after trying to watch for five minutes before puking.

Canada reported something like 50,000 net new jobs this month, which compared to America is a blow-away number. Yet, the top-of-the-fold photo and headline in Canada’s leading newspaper on Saturday, reads “ ‘Are we going to have to move to China now?’... (subhead) Surging job stats are cold comfort to auto sector, and to a family facing unemployment yet again.”

Some newspapers get it. Even 12 year olds like Patrick McAuliffe can figure out that Financial Entertainment TV is full of b.s.

As the Toronto Star reporter tells it, “ ‘Are we going to have to move to China now?’ An understandable question. He's a smart kid; he'd done a school project on global job flow and talked to his parents Trish and Jim about the massive shift of good, well-paying manufacturing jobs from Ontario to low-wage countries.”

The kid tells it the way he sees it. He ought to be Prime Minister. Or President. Or CEO of General Motors – to replace the idiot who told us that sales were booming last month. That’s the guy, and not the kid’s parents, who should get the “termination of employment” letter – fired for cause... employee dishonesty.

When I was 12, I didn’t have a clue. But I knew my Dad basically had a job for life, and we would have food on the table. Today, these kids learn too early in life that even in North America, it’s a tough life. They learn it around the kitchen table. They see the worry in their parent’s faces. They don’t understand this “greatest story never told”… “a winning day for Goldilocks” crapola.

For that matter, who does? It’s all b.s., and corporate advertisers should be ashamed they sponsor it. But, I suppose that’s a reflection on the values of the advertiser. Desperation makes strange bedfellows.

You know, I have been doing a lot of thinking about the reasons for such huge dividend payouts and share buy-backs by the leading American corporations. I think its part of a plan to transfer capital to wealthy persons who are re-directing it into China and India, where the economic returns (on capital) are acceptable. The wealthy people who want or need to retain their interest in the American corporation will take the dividend, and the others will sell their stock at these high prices back to the corporations to get the cash they need.

If the corporations were not complicit in this massive transfer of wealth, they would surely be waiting to buy back stock at the bottom of the cycle, not the top.

This stuff goes on at venues like the Business Roundtable, which is then mouthed to the world through the same TV personalities (like Maria Boardroom), telling us this is “Good for America; good for the Dollar.”

But is it good for the people? Patrick McAuliffe, 12 (formerly Windsor, soon to be formerly Oshawa, thinking maybe he now might have to learn Chinese) doesn’t think so. Neither do his parents.

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The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch for Friday

Here are the Friday session Cara 100 gainers.

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Here are Cara 100 losers from Friday.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs (no lows) in the Friday session.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes on Friday.

It was a fairly quiet volume day for such a rally day.

I will have to look into the Friday sell-off on large volume of the shares of (Cara 100) TeeKay LNG Partners (of Bahamas), which trades on the NYSE as the ticker symbol TGP. There was no dividend or news that I can find.

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Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes.

I am appreciative to the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc for providing the Cara 100 summaries. I have asked Danny Hughes to switch out Maxim (MXIM) for Research in Motion (NDQ: RIMM; TSX: RIM). David has added RIMM, but will remove MXIM for Monday.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

RSI > 70 (12 of 37)

RSI < 30 (1)

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that traded Thursday with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

Weekly Impulse Report

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both these indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

THIS WEEK saw 30 GREEN industries, and 0 RED (24 GREEN industries, and 0 RED last week).

Of the Cara 100 components, 78 are green (last week: 67) , 6 red - (last week: 1). TEK counts as GREEN but does not appear below for lack of historical trading data:

The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):

ALL the following stock indices were GREEN this week: DJIA, NDX, Nasdaq Comp, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500.

The CRB commodity index stayed GREEN. GOLD & SILVER stocks stayed GREEN.

The US dollar index stayed RED – while gaining 0.69% on the week!

Bottom line: “Green” industries hit their highest of the year. Components of ALL stock indices became greener this week, markedly so in the S&P500 and Russell2000. Just 7 weeks ago, 27 industries were RED; now, 30 are GREEN !

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (Sept. 29)

On Friday, the DJIA continues to move higher week by week, closing this week at 14066, up from 13895 the previous week and 13820 the week before that.

The broad market indexes are now well above both the 50-day and 200-day Moving average technical lines of resistance. But, the Daily, Weekly and Monthly RSI-7 data shows the market is over-bought.

With earnings season coming up, we have to watch the post-quarter trading for signs of a market sell-off. As I pointed out a couple weeks ago, selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq Composite is stronger than the DJIA because it is not weighed down by Financials. But, if, and when the Bear takes hold, I suspect the reason will be tied to the credit market fiasco.

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (ie, $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FXI	191.60	10.20	5.62%	6.44%	13.72%	30.54%	64.60%	43.52%	79.07%	131.12%
EWZ	77.64	3.46	4.66%	4.79%	12.00%	27.20%	66.25%	21.54%	51.49%	95.08%
QQQQ	52.82	1.05	2.02%	2.74%	4.88%	9.51%	22.15%	8.55%	18.53%	27.27%
EWC	33.58	0.63	1.91%	2.60%	4.42%	12.05%	35.95%	9.95%	25.49%	41.57%
EWJ	14.65	0.19	1.31%	2.30%	6.31%	7.40%	3.17%	-0.34%	-0.20%	5.70%
EWU	26.38	0.38	1.46%	2.25%	3.78%	7.37%	12.02%	2.33%	8.16%	19.04%
SPY	155.85	1.83	1.19%	2.14%	2.55%	6.64%	10.24%	2.41%	8.05%	15.29%
TRF	70.09	2.09	3.07%	2.07%	8.38%	16.04%	-20.85%	0.49%	-4.30%	4.53%
IEV	121.00	0.90	0.75%	1.86%	3.07%	8.42%	14.58%	2.18%	9.10%	23.85%
IFN	54.57	1.36	2.56%	0.50%	7.29%	18.60%	20.36%	21.32%	38.50%	23.60%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week it was a case of 9 sector ETFs up, 1 down. Energy (XLE) stayed down at #9 again. Financials (XLF) moved from #10 to #1.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	35.77	0.37	1.05%	4.59%	3.38%	8.39%	-3.11%	-2.00%	0.03%	1.39%
XLY	37.97	0.61	1.63%	3.38%	2.35%	5.68%	-1.43%	-4.62%	-2.27%	5.65%
XLU	40.90	0.32	0.79%	2.43%	1.44%	4.82%	11.08%	2.07%	0.49%	18.86%
IYH	72.38	0.62	0.86%	2.25%	2.33%	5.57%	8.91%	2.68%	5.46%	9.62%
XLB	42.91	0.67	1.59%	1.88%	3.22%	10.68%	23.98%	4.15%	11.57%	34.81%
XLI	41.58	0.45	1.09%	1.41%	2.34%	7.41%	18.02%	5.11%	16.05%	21.15%
IYZ	34.18	0.08	0.23%	0.97%	0.97%	5.07%	15.24%	-0.78%	8.13%	22.91%
SMH	38.45	0.48	1.26%	0.39%	-0.34%	1.69%	14.54%	-1.13%	12.30%	12.46%
XLE	75.04	0.29	0.39%	0.13%	-0.87%	6.80%	32.63%	6.36%	21.52%	42.55%
XLP	27.90	0.09	0.32%	-0.14%	0.87%	4.34%	6.16%	2.42%	2.99%	9.80%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Energy (XLE) was the #9 performer again this week, up +0.13 pct on the basis of a Friday move of +0.39 pct, closing at 75.04.

Two weeks ago, it was #2, up +4.08 pct. XLE was #1 performer for three weeks in a row before that, and I started to say I thought the price was over-bought. So, the past two weeks have proved me right.

PetroBrazil (PBR +4.4 pct) was the big winner, but seven of the ten were losers.

As I said two weeks ago, and repeated last week, “Smart traders will be watching for a Sell-alert to realize their gains, and move into cash (or into over-sold but recovering stocks). “

For the past year (52-weeks), PBR is up +94.0 pct.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	78.82	2.67	3.51%	4.40%	7.82%	22.89%	58.18%	21.17%	54.31%	93.99%
ECA	62.61	0.62	1.00%	1.23%	0.00%	6.10%	38.09%	0.81%	20.24%	36.23%
SU	95.56	1.46	1.55%	0.79%	-0.38%	5.03%	29.29%	4.79%	23.30%	39.87%
XOM	91.36	0.44	0.48%	-1.30%	-1.03%	6.54%	23.28%	7.28%	18.31%	35.71%
CVX	92.32	0.48	0.52%	-1.35%	-2.66%	5.33%	30.08%	6.64%	22.10%	44.52%
CEO	164.04	9.88	6.41%	-1.44%	5.96%	34.32%	74.01%	39.38%	85.99%	101.82%
IMO	48.55	1.14	2.40%	-2.04%	-3.17%	8.27%	36.15%	2.73%	28.64%	48.38%
TOT	77.89	-0.01	-0.01%	-3.88%	-4.36%	3.44%	9.75%	-5.07%	10.08%	19.65%
STO	32.40	-0.04	-0.12%	-4.48%	-6.41%	7.11%	26.12%	0.40%	18.81%	40.38%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) gained +1.88 pct on the week to close at 42.91.

A week ago I wrote, “Base metal miners like Brazil’s CVRD (RIO) were strong. RIO jumped +11.43 pct this week, and +24.51 pct over two weeks. Yes, the fundamentals are improving, but those kind of gains must be realized or else they might be given back.”

RIO gave back -1.1 pct this week, but that was after a terrific gain on Friday of +4.7 pct. These are tricky markets to trade. Overall, there is no reason to sell a GGB because it sells into rapidly growing markets, at high prices for its products, but my point re selling is that after phenomenal gains, you need to lock in profits or else your portfolio performance cannot stay ahead of the indexes. You start to get complacent and hold these former winners too long, thinking the price will return to old highs. Too often that does not happen until the interim pull-back is a significant one, before the reversal.

This week, Brazil’s Gerdau Steel (GGB) was the big winner (+8.2 pct), but Nucor (NUE -2.4 pct) was a loser.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	28.38	0.84	3.05%	8.24%	13.52%	20.56%	72.84%	6.73%	50.40%	104.61%
PKX	189.18	0.66	0.35%	5.82%	3.94%	25.40%	138.17%	49.16%	77.87%	187.95%
TCK	50.46	2.45	5.10%	5.76%	5.08%	24.13%	-27.13%	14.11%	-30.04%	-20.35%
RTP	348.55	10.28	3.04%	1.50%	6.07%	18.25%	70.77%	7.36%	45.71%	86.17%
TS	53.36	0.24	0.45%	1.41%	2.91%	18.11%	9.98%	6.44%	15.65%	51.59%
BHP	79.52	1.26	1.61%	1.17%	9.64%	23.90%	104.58%	24.48%	60.71%	110.82%
MT	78.00	1.87	2.46%	-0.46%	2.48%	21.91%	91.18%	20.52%	42.28%	119.47%
AA	38.79	1.13	3.00%	-0.84%	3.72%	11.24%	32.25%	-6.19%	12.14%	40.70%
RIO	33.56	1.51	4.71%	-1.09%	10.21%	-33.78%	16.45%	-29.30%	-15.57%	50.83%
NUE	58.04	1.05	1.84%	-2.40%	-2.45%	7.74%	6.50%	-2.54%	-12.73%	11.66%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ERJ	47.93	1.67	3.61%	9.13%	8.81%	8.07%	17.53%	-1.70%	1.63%	16.82%
ABB	26.97	0.08	0.30%	2.82%	5.43%	16.35%	51.35%	13.51%	50.67%	99.63%
MMM	95.85	1.60	1.70%	2.43%	4.55%	7.79%	22.48%	9.22%	24.89%	26.25%
CAT	80.33	1.69	2.15%	2.42%	2.78%	9.38%	31.34%	3.66%	18.78%	17.72%
FDX	106.06	1.31	1.25%	1.25%	1.88%	-1.99%	-3.38%	-3.91%	-2.54%	-6.08%
GE	41.77	0.07	0.17%	0.89%	1.26%	7.79%	10.01%	8.38%	19.27%	15.10%
HON	59.82	0.23	0.39%	0.59%	1.93%	9.34%	32.64%	2.50%	26.58%	39.86%
UTX	80.84	0.75	0.94%	0.45%	1.78%	9.55%	28.71%	12.09%	24.50%	22.78%
BA	102.25	-2.25	-2.15%	-2.61%	-0.33%	7.81%	14.67%	3.95%	12.98%	22.28%

XLI (Industrials) gained +1.41 pct this week to close at 41.58, but most of the gain was on Friday in a hyped-up market. Same thing for the Basic Materials and Technology.

A week ago I wrote, “Switzerland’s answer to General Electric is ABB, which was up +2.54 pct W/W and +10.21 pct over two weeks. That is a huge increase for a mature large cap company… I like the business this company does, and its management, financial strength, and operating metrics, but the stock is very expensive now. Selling, however, is best done with the help of Sell-alerts.”

The winner was Brazil’s airplane maker Embraer (ERJ +9.1 pct), competitor to Canada’s Bombardier, which is doing well in its rail car division but got sued for its faulty parts in the aircraft division. Embraer has cranked up deliveries and has a huge order book.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was #2 performer this week, gaining +3.38 pct W/W to close at 37.97.

I attribute much of the strength to the hype this week that America can reflate its way out of problems, that a 110,000 jobs number is “a winner for Goldilocks”, and other “greatest stories never told”. All of it nonsense.

A week ago, the big losers were Whirlpool (WHR), Starbucks (SBUX) and JC Penny (JCP). This week, pump, pump, pump… WHR was up 5.8 pct, SBUX +2.4 pct and JCP marvelous darling at +8.4 pct W/W.

Simply put, the markets have failed as an effective pricing mechanism. Mr. Market has allowed the b.s. artists of Financial Entertainment TV to take control.

Discover Financial Services told us this week that the US consumer is feeling yummy and well-heeled, and Mr. Market then waved the green flag. That was quite a run on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

Next we’ll hear of the inventory problems and the write-offs and the drivers will be red-flagged.

This Goldilocks story will continue, however, as long as the Fed intends to reflate.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	68.71	2.39	3.60%	8.43%	3.35%	5.59%	-11.98%	-3.73%	-18.26%	-2.43%
BC	24.21	0.67	2.85%	5.91%	8.23%	4.26%	-24.15%	-25.58%	-24.60%	-23.99%
WHR	94.29	2.36	2.57%	5.82%	2.26%	1.64%	11.37%	-15.88%	9.30%	9.23%
CCL	50.80	0.80	1.60%	4.89%	3.23%	13.60%	-0.29%	5.70%	8.66%	5.24%
DIS	35.47	0.57	1.63%	3.14%	2.51%	5.60%	3.71%	2.43%	1.60%	14.16%
NKE	60.35	0.99	1.67%	2.88%	5.40%	10.33%	23.59%	1.68%	12.85%	35.59%
SBUX	26.84	0.32	1.21%	2.44%	-2.29%	-1.18%	-23.86%	1.90%	-14.52%	-30.63%
TM	117.67	1.38	1.19%	0.69%	2.27%	3.86%	-13.03%	-7.48%	-6.97%	1.99%
EBAY	38.75	-0.41	-1.05%	-0.69%	-0.64%	9.93%	28.44%	20.08%	14.95%	27.22%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	80.65	3.07	3.96%	10.28%	11.30%	22.68%	64.26%	11.83%	43.48%	74.04%
WFMI	53.20	2.12	4.15%	8.66%	18.14%	23.35%	16.97%	39.89%	17.23%	-14.12%
WMT	45.37	0.37	0.82%	3.94%	2.58%	7.03%	-4.58%	-5.66%	-6.01%	-6.28%
BUD	51.60	0.68	1.34%	3.22%	2.04%	3.53%	4.84%	-0.96%	0.98%	9.25%
DEO	90.44	-0.17	-0.19%	3.09%	4.28%	5.59%	13.72%	8.44%	10.36%	25.45%
KO	58.07	0.20	0.35%	1.04%	2.69%	6.37%	19.53%	10.25%	17.27%	29.53%
PG	70.83	0.00	0.00%	0.70%	2.08%	8.19%	9.75%	14.85%	12.43%	11.51%
PEP	73.74	-0.13	-0.18%	0.66%	3.22%	8.47%	17.57%	11.88%	15.80%	13.83%
MO	69.56	-0.13	-0.19%	0.04%	1.49%	3.22%	7.15%	-2.25%	-1.68%	18.22%
WAG	39.30	-0.47	-1.18%	-16.81%	-13.46%	-10.99%	-14.70%	-10.50%	-15.01%	-9.43%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) went from a relatively strong #2 performer to #10, the only loser on the board, down -0.14 pct, and that was after a gain of +0.32 pct on Friday, closing at 27.90.

A week ago, I reported, “Whole Food Markets (WFMI), having cleared some legal issues related to a take-over, was up +8.73 pct W/W (+12.86 pct in two weeks).” This week, WFMI was up a further +8.66 pct, which makes it a gain of +23.4 pct over the past 4 weeks. Gee, where was that RSI-7 a couple months ago?

Oh, there we have it; the M-W-D was all 20’s on July 26. I recall it was a disaster in the news, but some of you were buying in the 38-40 range. It’s now $53.20. Then again, you didn’t know how the court decision would come down.

But, you know, time after time, these things have a way of working out when you buy at prices that are lower than anybody else for a couple years, and you know the company is solid quality.

Today the WFMI has a M-W-D RSI-7 of 57.6/74.2/89.9 (smoothed) and 59.9/83.3/93.4 (unsmoothed), which means (i) its hot lately, and (ii) on its way back. Do I want to buy it here? Not unless the Daily RSI falls back an awful lot in the interim.

But, that would be a long-term oriented portfolio decision… the kind that said I would be out about 70+ in January 2006 and back in at about 45 (or actually much lower with put write income) in February 2007. Then May and June would have been tough months, heading into that court hearing.

As I say, these things tend to work out.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PFE	25.58	0.28	1.11%	4.71%	4.03%	5.48%	-2.70%	-1.24%	-1.01%	-8.61%
BMY	30.09	0.35	1.18%	4.41%	3.76%	8.20%	14.06%	-5.70%	8.16%	22.72%
GSK	54.07	-0.07	-0.13%	1.64%	-0.30%	1.88%	0.48%	3.76%	-3.86%	0.22%
JNJ	66.25	0.14	0.21%	0.84%	1.74%	7.41%	-0.23%	6.37%	7.64%	1.75%