(WIR#39): What is for sure is that the credit market problems that surfaced in June will take at least a year and require agreements between the major banks of the world to resolve. In the interim, despite the helping support of central bankers to provide additional liquidity, many financial institutions will fail and/or be taken over by stronger ones.

Muddling through the process, central bankers will try to ensure enough liquidity to help private equity companies to complete the deals they lined up and those that will become available under the present circumstances, and they want to help those financially strong corporations interested in taking on more debt to pay out higher dividends. These deals contribute to what people call the Wealth Effect.

‘Wealth effect’ is an expression that is akin to little more than taking money out of one pocket and putting it into another to induce them to do something they ought not to… In the context of commercial lending, does the bank really care as long as somebody is there to make the payments or collect the loan collateral in the event payments are not?

In other words, ‘wealth effect is part of the psychology of credit markets, a creation of the Sell-side. Just another challenge in the daily life of the Buy-side.

Now we are told that one of the largest and strongest banks of the world, UBS, is going to write off $3.41 billion in loans… Usually, when you see one or more of the major banks talking like this, it means they all will, and that means that all bank customers are going to get squeezed, and in the process end up having banks seize assets where loans are not being repaid as per earlier agreements. Typically these things happen in Bull markets. They happen once every 10 or 15 years and in my whole life, I haven’t seen it happen in a Bull market yet.

Credit squeezes by banks are bad for embattled home-owners too because high bid prices for homes are the result of the bidders being able to finance the purchase through available credit. When credit of a part of the market is squeezed, like for sub-prime borrowers, it is almost always the case that there is a squeeze on the borrowing practices of the typical prime rate borrowers as well. That is what is happening today.

… There is a reality to life, and you are at risk if you choose to ignore it, and instead believe the stories of goldilocks and make-believe. Credulity syndrome is the term I use for losers. Too many people are afflicted.

When banks tighten, and central banks liquefy, as they are doing today, having cash is an important asset, but there is nothing so important as having gold and silver money at times like that. The more paper money that is printed, the more it is depreciated (because much of it is misspent/wasted), and the higher the value of gold and silver, and the bigger are the winners who hold it. The losers will continue to be those who borrow to spend unnecessarily – individuals, corporations and governments alike.

Losers in the markets will be traders who do not recognize that this is a bad time to be investing in companies that make or sell goods and services that are not essential to sustaining life, or on financial institutions that lend (since this is a time these companies are bent on collecting and having to write off bad debts).

The story that changed this week, other than the one that HB&B have their act together in writing off gazillions of dollars of asset-backed paper of dubious quality, is that over the horizon the corporate earnings picture is brightening. Somehow, opines S&P and Thomson Financial analysts, the earnings of the Tech sector will grow +20 pct to +22 pct per annum over the next five quarters.

Presumably, they cannot see past the next five quarters. I’m left wondering if they can see into the current one. In fact, I made a statement this week about the possibility they are smoking stuff that warps the brain.

However, trading being what it is, it behooves us to investigate because that’s the kind of number that buyers want to hear, and there could be a lot of buying. Net buying, of course, raises prices, and we trade prices. We like to buy them low and sell them high.

Problem is they are already high. So we must be extra cautious. These analysts have fooled us before you know. Why, it was just in March 2000, at the apex of the corner of the previous Bull market – right before the collapse – that 98.5 pct of all analysts recommendations for Dow 30 stocks were Strong Buy, Buy or Hold. That meant just 1.5 pct recommended a Sell or Strong Sell.

Although in March 2000 the correct decision for the great majority would have been to listen only to the Strong Sell recommendations, there were so few of them you missed them simply by blinking. But our heads were spinning at the line-up of Talking Heads from Wall Street to CNBC Street to tell us their parent company, the venerable General Electric, had a stock that was under-priced at 50 times earnings.

Oh, the mind boggles at the stuff that comes out of the mouths of Wall Streeters, at times.

So, now we are left wondering if this 20-22 pct annualized earnings figure for the Tech sector is credible and incredible or simply lacks credibility. They have thrown down the gauntlet; now it’s our call.

---

International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week.

On Friday morning, as on the first Friday every month, the US Jobs Report reports was published by the Labor Dept.

We pay attention because we recognize that the data and the hype is used by powerful interest groups to try to move market prices in one direction or another.

A few years ago, the key report used by these large capital pools was the M1, 2 and 3 monetary aggregates. Now, at a time that data is important, the Fed authorities don’t want us to pay attention. They even scrapped the M3. Sometime in the future, after the public catches on to the real utility of the data, they will select different data to spin their stories. This ‘spin the player’ is part of the game that goes on in trading the capital markets.

I reported at the time, “Today’s Jobs Report was “stronger than expected” and wage gains were higher than expected, so yields will rally (bonds down).” The wage gains were ignored, and the 110,000 number was paraded by TV Talking Heads like it was magic. Unfortunately, it was 70,000 jobs less than what America needs to stay the course.

Moreover, there were too many new jobs created that have nothing to do with building economic wealth. That’s the problem that ails America today. That, and this totally phony reportage by financial TV shows that on Friday I called “unadulterated trash” after trying to watch for five minutes before puking.

Canada reported something like 50,000 net new jobs this month, which compared to America is a blow-away number. Yet, the top-of-the-fold photo and headline in Canada’s leading newspaper on Saturday, reads “ ‘Are we going to have to move to China now?’... (subhead) Surging job stats are cold comfort to auto sector, and to a family facing unemployment yet again.”

Some newspapers get it. Even 12 year olds like Patrick McAuliffe can figure out that Financial Entertainment TV is full of b.s.

As the Toronto Star reporter tells it, “ ‘Are we going to have to move to China now?’ An understandable question. He's a smart kid; he'd done a school project on global job flow and talked to his parents Trish and Jim about the massive shift of good, well-paying manufacturing jobs from Ontario to low-wage countries.”

The kid tells it the way he sees it. He ought to be Prime Minister. Or President. Or CEO of General Motors – to replace the idiot who told us that sales were booming last month. That’s the guy, and not the kid’s parents, who should get the “termination of employment” letter – fired for cause... employee dishonesty.

When I was 12, I didn’t have a clue. But I knew my Dad basically had a job for life, and we would have food on the table. Today, these kids learn too early in life that even in North America, it’s a tough life. They learn it around the kitchen table. They see the worry in their parent’s faces. They don’t understand this “greatest story never told”… “a winning day for Goldilocks” crapola.

For that matter, who does? It’s all b.s., and corporate advertisers should be ashamed they sponsor it. But, I suppose that’s a reflection on the values of the advertiser. Desperation makes strange bedfellows.

You know, I have been doing a lot of thinking about the reasons for such huge dividend payouts and share buy-backs by the leading American corporations. I think its part of a plan to transfer capital to wealthy persons who are re-directing it into China and India, where the economic returns (on capital) are acceptable. The wealthy people who want or need to retain their interest in the American corporation will take the dividend, and the others will sell their stock at these high prices back to the corporations to get the cash they need.

If the corporations were not complicit in this massive transfer of wealth, they would surely be waiting to buy back stock at the bottom of the cycle, not the top.

This stuff goes on at venues like the Business Roundtable, which is then mouthed to the world through the same TV personalities (like Maria Boardroom), telling us this is “Good for America; good for the Dollar.”

But is it good for the people? Patrick McAuliffe, 12 (formerly Windsor, soon to be formerly Oshawa, thinking maybe he now might have to learn Chinese) doesn’t think so. Neither do his parents.

---

The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch for Friday

Here are the Friday session Cara 100 gainers.

---

Here are Cara 100 losers from Friday.

---

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs (no lows) in the Friday session.

---

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes on Friday.

It was a fairly quiet volume day for such a rally day.

I will have to look into the Friday sell-off on large volume of the shares of (Cara 100) TeeKay LNG Partners (of Bahamas), which trades on the NYSE as the ticker symbol TGP. There was no dividend or news that I can find.

---

Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes.

I am appreciative to the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc for providing the Cara 100 summaries. I have asked Danny Hughes to switch out Maxim (MXIM) for Research in Motion (NDQ: RIMM; TSX: RIM). David has added RIMM, but will remove MXIM for Monday.

---

Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

RSI > 70 (12 of 37)

RSI < 30 (1)

---

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that traded Thursday with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.

---

Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

Weekly Impulse Report

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both these indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

THIS WEEK saw 30 GREEN industries, and 0 RED (24 GREEN industries, and 0 RED last week).

Of the Cara 100 components, 78 are green (last week: 67) , 6 red - (last week: 1). TEK counts as GREEN but does not appear below for lack of historical trading data:

The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):

ALL the following stock indices were GREEN this week: DJIA, NDX, Nasdaq Comp, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500.

The CRB commodity index stayed GREEN. GOLD & SILVER stocks stayed GREEN.

The US dollar index stayed RED – while gaining 0.69% on the week!

Bottom line: “Green” industries hit their highest of the year. Components of ALL stock indices became greener this week, markedly so in the S&P500 and Russell2000. Just 7 weeks ago, 27 industries were RED; now, 30 are GREEN !

---

US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (Sept. 29)

On Friday, the DJIA continues to move higher week by week, closing this week at 14066, up from 13895 the previous week and 13820 the week before that.

The broad market indexes are now well above both the 50-day and 200-day Moving average technical lines of resistance. But, the Daily, Weekly and Monthly RSI-7 data shows the market is over-bought.

With earnings season coming up, we have to watch the post-quarter trading for signs of a market sell-off. As I pointed out a couple weeks ago, selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.

---

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq Composite is stronger than the DJIA because it is not weighed down by Financials. But, if, and when the Bear takes hold, I suspect the reason will be tied to the credit market fiasco.

---

Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (ie, $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FXI	191.60	10.20	5.62%	6.44%	13.72%	30.54%	64.60%	43.52%	79.07%	131.12%
EWZ	77.64	3.46	4.66%	4.79%	12.00%	27.20%	66.25%	21.54%	51.49%	95.08%
QQQQ	52.82	1.05	2.02%	2.74%	4.88%	9.51%	22.15%	8.55%	18.53%	27.27%
EWC	33.58	0.63	1.91%	2.60%	4.42%	12.05%	35.95%	9.95%	25.49%	41.57%
EWJ	14.65	0.19	1.31%	2.30%	6.31%	7.40%	3.17%	-0.34%	-0.20%	5.70%
EWU	26.38	0.38	1.46%	2.25%	3.78%	7.37%	12.02%	2.33%	8.16%	19.04%
SPY	155.85	1.83	1.19%	2.14%	2.55%	6.64%	10.24%	2.41%	8.05%	15.29%
TRF	70.09	2.09	3.07%	2.07%	8.38%	16.04%	-20.85%	0.49%	-4.30%	4.53%
IEV	121.00	0.90	0.75%	1.86%	3.07%	8.42%	14.58%	2.18%	9.10%	23.85%
IFN	54.57	1.36	2.56%	0.50%	7.29%	18.60%	20.36%	21.32%	38.50%	23.60%

---

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

---

U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

---

Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

---

The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week it was a case of 9 sector ETFs up, 1 down. Energy (XLE) stayed down at #9 again. Financials (XLF) moved from #10 to #1.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	35.77	0.37	1.05%	4.59%	3.38%	8.39%	-3.11%	-2.00%	0.03%	1.39%
XLY	37.97	0.61	1.63%	3.38%	2.35%	5.68%	-1.43%	-4.62%	-2.27%	5.65%
XLU	40.90	0.32	0.79%	2.43%	1.44%	4.82%	11.08%	2.07%	0.49%	18.86%
IYH	72.38	0.62	0.86%	2.25%	2.33%	5.57%	8.91%	2.68%	5.46%	9.62%
XLB	42.91	0.67	1.59%	1.88%	3.22%	10.68%	23.98%	4.15%	11.57%	34.81%
XLI	41.58	0.45	1.09%	1.41%	2.34%	7.41%	18.02%	5.11%	16.05%	21.15%
IYZ	34.18	0.08	0.23%	0.97%	0.97%	5.07%	15.24%	-0.78%	8.13%	22.91%
SMH	38.45	0.48	1.26%	0.39%	-0.34%	1.69%	14.54%	-1.13%	12.30%	12.46%
XLE	75.04	0.29	0.39%	0.13%	-0.87%	6.80%	32.63%	6.36%	21.52%	42.55%
XLP	27.90	0.09	0.32%	-0.14%	0.87%	4.34%	6.16%	2.42%	2.99%	9.80%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

---

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

---

Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Energy (XLE) was the #9 performer again this week, up +0.13 pct on the basis of a Friday move of +0.39 pct, closing at 75.04.

Two weeks ago, it was #2, up +4.08 pct. XLE was #1 performer for three weeks in a row before that, and I started to say I thought the price was over-bought. So, the past two weeks have proved me right.

PetroBrazil (PBR +4.4 pct) was the big winner, but seven of the ten were losers.

As I said two weeks ago, and repeated last week, “Smart traders will be watching for a Sell-alert to realize their gains, and move into cash (or into over-sold but recovering stocks). “

For the past year (52-weeks), PBR is up +94.0 pct.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	78.82	2.67	3.51%	4.40%	7.82%	22.89%	58.18%	21.17%	54.31%	93.99%
ECA	62.61	0.62	1.00%	1.23%	0.00%	6.10%	38.09%	0.81%	20.24%	36.23%
SU	95.56	1.46	1.55%	0.79%	-0.38%	5.03%	29.29%	4.79%	23.30%	39.87%
XOM	91.36	0.44	0.48%	-1.30%	-1.03%	6.54%	23.28%	7.28%	18.31%	35.71%
CVX	92.32	0.48	0.52%	-1.35%	-2.66%	5.33%	30.08%	6.64%	22.10%	44.52%
CEO	164.04	9.88	6.41%	-1.44%	5.96%	34.32%	74.01%	39.38%	85.99%	101.82%
IMO	48.55	1.14	2.40%	-2.04%	-3.17%	8.27%	36.15%	2.73%	28.64%	48.38%
TOT	77.89	-0.01	-0.01%	-3.88%	-4.36%	3.44%	9.75%	-5.07%	10.08%	19.65%
STO	32.40	-0.04	-0.12%	-4.48%	-6.41%	7.11%	26.12%	0.40%	18.81%	40.38%

---

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

---

Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) gained +1.88 pct on the week to close at 42.91.

A week ago I wrote, “Base metal miners like Brazil’s CVRD (RIO) were strong. RIO jumped +11.43 pct this week, and +24.51 pct over two weeks. Yes, the fundamentals are improving, but those kind of gains must be realized or else they might be given back.”

RIO gave back -1.1 pct this week, but that was after a terrific gain on Friday of +4.7 pct. These are tricky markets to trade. Overall, there is no reason to sell a GGB because it sells into rapidly growing markets, at high prices for its products, but my point re selling is that after phenomenal gains, you need to lock in profits or else your portfolio performance cannot stay ahead of the indexes. You start to get complacent and hold these former winners too long, thinking the price will return to old highs. Too often that does not happen until the interim pull-back is a significant one, before the reversal.

This week, Brazil’s Gerdau Steel (GGB) was the big winner (+8.2 pct), but Nucor (NUE -2.4 pct) was a loser.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	28.38	0.84	3.05%	8.24%	13.52%	20.56%	72.84%	6.73%	50.40%	104.61%
PKX	189.18	0.66	0.35%	5.82%	3.94%	25.40%	138.17%	49.16%	77.87%	187.95%
TCK	50.46	2.45	5.10%	5.76%	5.08%	24.13%	-27.13%	14.11%	-30.04%	-20.35%
RTP	348.55	10.28	3.04%	1.50%	6.07%	18.25%	70.77%	7.36%	45.71%	86.17%
TS	53.36	0.24	0.45%	1.41%	2.91%	18.11%	9.98%	6.44%	15.65%	51.59%
BHP	79.52	1.26	1.61%	1.17%	9.64%	23.90%	104.58%	24.48%	60.71%	110.82%
MT	78.00	1.87	2.46%	-0.46%	2.48%	21.91%	91.18%	20.52%	42.28%	119.47%
AA	38.79	1.13	3.00%	-0.84%	3.72%	11.24%	32.25%	-6.19%	12.14%	40.70%
RIO	33.56	1.51	4.71%	-1.09%	10.21%	-33.78%	16.45%	-29.30%	-15.57%	50.83%
NUE	58.04	1.05	1.84%	-2.40%	-2.45%	7.74%	6.50%	-2.54%	-12.73%	11.66%

---

Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ERJ	47.93	1.67	3.61%	9.13%	8.81%	8.07%	17.53%	-1.70%	1.63%	16.82%
ABB	26.97	0.08	0.30%	2.82%	5.43%	16.35%	51.35%	13.51%	50.67%	99.63%
MMM	95.85	1.60	1.70%	2.43%	4.55%	7.79%	22.48%	9.22%	24.89%	26.25%
CAT	80.33	1.69	2.15%	2.42%	2.78%	9.38%	31.34%	3.66%	18.78%	17.72%
FDX	106.06	1.31	1.25%	1.25%	1.88%	-1.99%	-3.38%	-3.91%	-2.54%	-6.08%
GE	41.77	0.07	0.17%	0.89%	1.26%	7.79%	10.01%	8.38%	19.27%	15.10%
HON	59.82	0.23	0.39%	0.59%	1.93%	9.34%	32.64%	2.50%	26.58%	39.86%
UTX	80.84	0.75	0.94%	0.45%	1.78%	9.55%	28.71%	12.09%	24.50%	22.78%
BA	102.25	-2.25	-2.15%	-2.61%	-0.33%	7.81%	14.67%	3.95%	12.98%	22.28%

XLI (Industrials) gained +1.41 pct this week to close at 41.58, but most of the gain was on Friday in a hyped-up market. Same thing for the Basic Materials and Technology.

A week ago I wrote, “Switzerland’s answer to General Electric is ABB, which was up +2.54 pct W/W and +10.21 pct over two weeks. That is a huge increase for a mature large cap company… I like the business this company does, and its management, financial strength, and operating metrics, but the stock is very expensive now. Selling, however, is best done with the help of Sell-alerts.”

The winner was Brazil’s airplane maker Embraer (ERJ +9.1 pct), competitor to Canada’s Bombardier, which is doing well in its rail car division but got sued for its faulty parts in the aircraft division. Embraer has cranked up deliveries and has a huge order book.

---

Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was #2 performer this week, gaining +3.38 pct W/W to close at 37.97.

I attribute much of the strength to the hype this week that America can reflate its way out of problems, that a 110,000 jobs number is “a winner for Goldilocks”, and other “greatest stories never told”. All of it nonsense.

A week ago, the big losers were Whirlpool (WHR), Starbucks (SBUX) and JC Penny (JCP). This week, pump, pump, pump… WHR was up 5.8 pct, SBUX +2.4 pct and JCP marvelous darling at +8.4 pct W/W.

Simply put, the markets have failed as an effective pricing mechanism. Mr. Market has allowed the b.s. artists of Financial Entertainment TV to take control.

Discover Financial Services told us this week that the US consumer is feeling yummy and well-heeled, and Mr. Market then waved the green flag. That was quite a run on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

Next we’ll hear of the inventory problems and the write-offs and the drivers will be red-flagged.

This Goldilocks story will continue, however, as long as the Fed intends to reflate.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	68.71	2.39	3.60%	8.43%	3.35%	5.59%	-11.98%	-3.73%	-18.26%	-2.43%
BC	24.21	0.67	2.85%	5.91%	8.23%	4.26%	-24.15%	-25.58%	-24.60%	-23.99%
WHR	94.29	2.36	2.57%	5.82%	2.26%	1.64%	11.37%	-15.88%	9.30%	9.23%
CCL	50.80	0.80	1.60%	4.89%	3.23%	13.60%	-0.29%	5.70%	8.66%	5.24%
DIS	35.47	0.57	1.63%	3.14%	2.51%	5.60%	3.71%	2.43%	1.60%	14.16%
NKE	60.35	0.99	1.67%	2.88%	5.40%	10.33%	23.59%	1.68%	12.85%	35.59%
SBUX	26.84	0.32	1.21%	2.44%	-2.29%	-1.18%	-23.86%	1.90%	-14.52%	-30.63%
TM	117.67	1.38	1.19%	0.69%	2.27%	3.86%	-13.03%	-7.48%	-6.97%	1.99%
EBAY	38.75	-0.41	-1.05%	-0.69%	-0.64%	9.93%	28.44%	20.08%	14.95%	27.22%

---

Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	80.65	3.07	3.96%	10.28%	11.30%	22.68%	64.26%	11.83%	43.48%	74.04%
WFMI	53.20	2.12	4.15%	8.66%	18.14%	23.35%	16.97%	39.89%	17.23%	-14.12%
WMT	45.37	0.37	0.82%	3.94%	2.58%	7.03%	-4.58%	-5.66%	-6.01%	-6.28%
BUD	51.60	0.68	1.34%	3.22%	2.04%	3.53%	4.84%	-0.96%	0.98%	9.25%
DEO	90.44	-0.17	-0.19%	3.09%	4.28%	5.59%	13.72%	8.44%	10.36%	25.45%
KO	58.07	0.20	0.35%	1.04%	2.69%	6.37%	19.53%	10.25%	17.27%	29.53%
PG	70.83	0.00	0.00%	0.70%	2.08%	8.19%	9.75%	14.85%	12.43%	11.51%
PEP	73.74	-0.13	-0.18%	0.66%	3.22%	8.47%	17.57%	11.88%	15.80%	13.83%
MO	69.56	-0.13	-0.19%	0.04%	1.49%	3.22%	7.15%	-2.25%	-1.68%	18.22%
WAG	39.30	-0.47	-1.18%	-16.81%	-13.46%	-10.99%	-14.70%	-10.50%	-15.01%	-9.43%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) went from a relatively strong #2 performer to #10, the only loser on the board, down -0.14 pct, and that was after a gain of +0.32 pct on Friday, closing at 27.90.

A week ago, I reported, “Whole Food Markets (WFMI), having cleared some legal issues related to a take-over, was up +8.73 pct W/W (+12.86 pct in two weeks).” This week, WFMI was up a further +8.66 pct, which makes it a gain of +23.4 pct over the past 4 weeks. Gee, where was that RSI-7 a couple months ago?

Oh, there we have it; the M-W-D was all 20’s on July 26. I recall it was a disaster in the news, but some of you were buying in the 38-40 range. It’s now $53.20. Then again, you didn’t know how the court decision would come down.

But, you know, time after time, these things have a way of working out when you buy at prices that are lower than anybody else for a couple years, and you know the company is solid quality.

Today the WFMI has a M-W-D RSI-7 of 57.6/74.2/89.9 (smoothed) and 59.9/83.3/93.4 (unsmoothed), which means (i) its hot lately, and (ii) on its way back. Do I want to buy it here? Not unless the Daily RSI falls back an awful lot in the interim.

But, that would be a long-term oriented portfolio decision… the kind that said I would be out about 70+ in January 2006 and back in at about 45 (or actually much lower with put write income) in February 2007. Then May and June would have been tough months, heading into that court hearing.

As I say, these things tend to work out.

---

Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PFE	25.58	0.28	1.11%	4.71%	4.03%	5.48%	-2.70%	-1.24%	-1.01%	-8.61%
BMY	30.09	0.35	1.18%	4.41%	3.76%	8.20%	14.06%	-5.70%	8.16%	22.72%
GSK	54.07	-0.07	-0.13%	1.64%	-0.30%	1.88%	0.48%	3.76%	-3.86%	0.22%
JNJ	66.25	0.14	0.21%	0.84%	1.74%	7.41%	-0.23%	6.37%	7.64%	1.75%
AMGN	56.84	1.45	2.62%	0.48%	2.56%	11.67%	-16.90%	3.61%	-2.55%	-23.94%
DNA	78.28	0.28	0.36%	0.33%	-1.39%	-1.02%	-4.30%	2.06%	-6.14%	-6.48%
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	1.05%	8.47%	41.68%
AET	53.83	0.75	1.41%	-0.81%	2.85%	7.15%	25.54%	6.70%	19.62%	30.78%
NVS	54.30	-0.17	-0.31%	-1.20%	-1.45%	1.69%	-6.60%	-2.07%	-2.62%	-6.86%
UNH	47.70	0.32	0.68%	-1.51%	-4.43%	-3.03%	-9.26%	-9.06%	-13.79%	-5.86%

IYH (healthcare) gained +2.25 pct W/W to close at 72.38. A week ago, IYH was almost flat and was performer #4, with a gain of six cents, and this week, #4 required a gain of +$1.59. That’s what market hype does.

Pfizer (+4.7 pct W/W) and Bristol Myers (BMY +4.4 pct) were going opposite to United Health (UNH -1.5 pct this week and -3.0 pct a week ago).

---

Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MS	68.90	1.79	2.67%	9.37%	6.92%	10.24%	-15.58%	-5.54%	-14.20%	-7.59%
UBS	57.75	0.32	0.56%	8.45%	6.85%	10.87%	-5.93%	-4.67%	-4.88%	-5.28%
MER	76.67	1.89	2.53%	7.56%	2.60%	4.77%	-18.10%	-8.62%	-10.93%	-6.25%
HBC	98.71	1.18	1.21%	6.60%	6.64%	10.89%	6.17%	7.21%	10.07%	4.81%
GS	228.50	2.55	1.13%	5.43%	8.82%	27.67%	13.84%	3.24%	9.89%	30.20%
DB	135.16	0.10	0.07%	5.27%	4.55%	9.01%	-0.13%	-7.44%	-1.88%	9.02%
CS	69.61	0.18	0.26%	4.94%	4.85%	7.49%	-0.71%	-3.77%	-3.72%	16.52%
JPM	47.58	0.33	0.70%	3.84%	0.95%	9.33%	-1.02%	-2.48%	-2.44%	0.36%
LEH	63.98	0.76	1.20%	3.64%	2.04%	20.83%	-18.63%	-14.26%	-10.44%	-15.58%
C	48.30	0.67	1.41%	3.49%	1.66%	6.20%	-12.58%	-6.58%	-6.34%	-5.28%

The Financial ETF (XLF) gained +4.59 pct W/W to close at 35.77.

A week ago I stated, “I would not touch Financials right now unless I wanted to become a millionaire starting out with two.” Hmmm. You know, for a long time two years ago I had these stocks wrong. Maybe here too?

I doubt it. When the line-up of HB&B CEO’s stands up in front of the media and says, “I sinned, and had to write off x billions of shareholder capital, but please forgive and forget so I can get on with the job (and spend my gazillion in management performance bonuses)” somebody ought to put them in a police line-up.

What’s happened here is collusion. The Big Swinging Dicks of Wall Street (a great line given to us by Michael Lewis in his terrific book Liar’s Poker) sold us a little pornography this week. They told us all is well now that they have written off some bad debts. What they failed to disclose, however, is that they got together an agreement not to sell at fire-sale prices each other’s syndicated “Liar Loan”-backed securities.

Funny how that word “Liar” keeps coming up when speaking about HB&B.

Eventually, it won’t be funny to see the Northern Rock-type line-ups winding around Wall Street corners. When the next shoe drops – and I believe it will – as soon as interest rates climb a bit, the downwave in equity markets ought to be a big one. Something Kaimu could surf down, eh mate!

And that in a nutshell is the problem we have with the conflicts of interest in capital markets. HB&B has a vested interest to save themselves by lying, by selling commodity prices lower so that central banks don’t have to raise rates, and by supporting the credit ring by hiding the gaps in it even though the public has every right to know how bad things are. You see, when it comes to themselves, these bankers will do only so much due diligence. Best practices go out the door.

The only solution, which I have been saying for years, is to eliminate conflicts of interest. HB&B should never be allowed by legislators to be principal and agent in the same transaction, or being on both the Buy-side AND the Sell-side whenever there’s a buck to be made.

I resent it, and so should everybody who reads this blog. In no other facet of society in the supposedly free world can people represent the buyers and the sellers and themselves in the same transaction and run the business on a self-regulated basis as well. You and any lawyer or accountant you know can’t do what these bankers have paid off legislators to allow them to do.

What this is is sick. What else can I say? But, we have to put up with it because it is what it is.

---

Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
INFY	52.43	1.38	2.70%	8.35%	12.46%	9.87%	-6.08%	4.46%	1.16%	9.16%
CTSH	85.79	2.45	2.94%	7.52%	13.07%	20.71%	10.33%	15.29%	-1.12%	13.72%
QCOM	43.36	0.58	1.36%	2.60%	6.20%	14.44%	15.75%	-0.41%	0.14%	19.58%
ORCL	22.18	0.42	1.92%	2.44%	0.90%	10.01%	26.66%	8.24%	18.79%	21.33%
ADBE	44.64	0.39	0.88%	2.24%	6.41%	3.91%	11.82%	9.06%	4.76%	16.92%
ADSK	50.56	0.59	1.18%	1.18%	3.78%	11.98%	24.65%	10.42%	27.84%	43.80%
SAP	59.23	1.34	2.31%	0.95%	1.01%	6.99%	11.33%	16.99%	26.78%	16.50%
INTC	25.54	-0.06	-0.23%	-1.24%	-1.28%	0.27%	25.50%	3.82%	30.44%	23.03%
CSCO	32.65	0.50	1.55%	-1.45%	1.08%	3.58%	17.70%	15.08%	25.28%	36.44%
SNDK	52.10	-1.09	-2.05%	-5.44%	-2.73%	-1.57%	24.88%	8.34%	17.08%	-6.26%

I like technology better anyway. The stuff either works or it doesn’t. A technologist’s vaporware, which is the banker’s equivalent of Liar Loan, just doesn’t fly. If they try to sell stuff that doesn’t exist, they get arrested. But if bankers lie about the financial strength of the products they sell, they get the media to tell us to applaud their efforts when they disclose the fraud.

This week, SMH (semi-conductors) gained +0.39 pct to 38.45, but it took Friday’s gain of +1.26 pct to get them there. I guess they wanted theirs too after watching the Merrill’s (+7.6 pct) and the Goldman’s (+5.4 pct) and the Morgan’s (+9.4 pct!!) and the UBS’s (+8.5 pct!!) and the HSBC’s (+6.6 pct) get rich. Heaven forbid, there might be no mañana.

SanDisk (SNDK -5.4 pct) took lumps of coal home from the party, but India’s Infosys Technologies (NDQ: INFY +8.4 pct) and Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH +7.5 pct) were receiving HB&B-type bread. The difference is; they earned it one solution at a time.

---

Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

---

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) was up +0.97 pct W/W to close at 34.18.

Verizon (VZ +2.1 pct) was communicating effectively, but traders hung up on AT&T (T -0.4 pct).

---

Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

This week, XLU (Utilities) had a strong week, gaining +2.43 pct, to close at 40.90.

I think the “No recession mañana!” headlines issued by Financial Entertainment TV carried the week for Goldilocks.

---

Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.85	3.81	3.64	4.20
6 Month	4.02	3.97	3.91	4.22
2 Year	4.07	3.97	3.97	4.00
3 Year	4.11	4.00	4.01	4.01
5 Year	4.33	4.20	4.24	4.14
10 Year	4.64	4.52	4.58	4.46
30 Year	4.87	4.76	4.83	4.77

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.46	3.39	3.40	3.59
2yr AAA	3.39	3.45	3.49	3.62
2yr A	3.37	3.43	3.47	3.67
5yr AAA	3.50	3.48	3.48	3.60
5yr AA	3.45	3.47	3.49	3.62
5yr A	3.72	3.70	3.70	3.82
10yr AAA	3.76	3.78	3.77	3.99
10yr AA	3.74	3.76	3.78	3.97
10yr A	3.89	3.91	3.90	4.22
20yr AAA	4.29	4.44	4.33	4.59
20yr AA	4.48	4.64	4.73	4.62
20yr A	4.30	4.45	4.33	4.65

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.77	4.68	4.81	4.88
2yr A	4.88	4.84	4.89	4.98
5yr AAA	4.77	4.45	5.06	4.97
5yr AA	5.19	5.06	5.14	5.27
5yr A	5.24	5.13	5.21	5.21
10yr AAA	5.52	5.45	5.38	5.40
10yr AA	5.71	5.62	5.79	5.82
10yr A	5.80	5.68	5.78	5.83
20yr AAA	5.95	5.87	5.96	6.18
20yr AA	6.32	6.25	6.33	6.29
20yr A	6.28	6.21	6.29	6.32

Within the US Treasury market, the yields strengthened from +4 basis points for the 30-year long bond to +10 pct for the 2-year, which pulled down Bond prices a little. Much of the damage was done on Friday as the TLT lost -1.08 pct on the day, but only -0.50 pct W/W.

The Friday move in T-bonds seemed appropriate as capital was shifting back to equities, perhaps following the reflation theme, which is undeniably linked to the prospects for higher inflation and interest rates, and speculative risk, in the future.

That’s not a theme I’m prepared to support right now, but should central banks be willing to let the USD slide further here as a result of pumping more liquidity into the banking system, that’s a possibility. That only means a short pop in equity prices however because the resultant lift in interest rates, especially at the short end (as happened Friday) is certain to have a negative impact on the housing/mortgage/credit market problems at some point.

If you think back to when these problems surfaced, it was June and July, when the 2-year Treasury Note was yielding 4.90-5.00 pct. Relief came when the Fed (and other central banks) came to the rescue, driving the yield on the 2-year all the way down to 3.89 pct at week’s end Sept 18.

But that rate is now back to 4.07 pct. So, keep your eye on it. Any higher inflation numbers, significant drop in the $USD, evidence of bank failures/difficulties, heating up of the economy (which will crowd out the bond market), or speculative price increases in commodities and/or penny stocks, will send rates higher.

That’s the dilemma facing central banks. If market rates rise to compensate for growing risk, then central banks are forced to inject more liquidity, which helps relieve pressure in the short term, but increase it further out in time.

Traders can follow this battle by watching the spreads between 3-month CD’s and 90-day T-Bills, or between 2-year AA Corporate bond yields and 2-year Treasury Notes.

The relation between treasury yields (the so-called riskless rate) and corporate bond yield spreads is an interesting subject, particularly when there is a disruption in credit markets. If you are academically inclined, there are many papers worth reading on this subject. Here is one from the University of Manitoba. Other studies focus on the relation between corporate yields and swap rates (the LIBOR-Swap spread).

If you get a chance to read the summaries of current analyses of these markets, you will see that, despite what HB&B has been spewing to the media this week, there is a lot of uncertainty in the bond market. It could take a year or more to resolve, and in the interim there could be failures of financial institutions as Treasury Secretary Paulson flat-out stated in a recent Bloomberg interview. There could also see further rounds of liquidity injections, which will serve to pump up the commodity price balloon that I refer to.

This week, there was a huge increase in the yield for the 3-month T-Bills, from 3.64 pct to 3.85 pct, which is an increase of +21 bp.

In the week ending July 14, the T-Bill yield was almost +100 bp higher, and the yield spread with corporates was quite narrow – reflecting low concern for risk -- but since then, the Fed started to pump, and the yield spread (corporates to Treasuries) ballooned as bond traders became concerned about risk.

That week of July 14, for instance, the yield on the 2-year AA corporate was 5.34 and on the 2-year Treasury 4.92, which is a spread of +42 bp. A week ago, those rates were 4.81 and 3.64 for a spread of +117 bp.

This week, with all the banks saying that the problems are under control, the comparative rates are 4.77 and 4.07 for a spread of +70 bp, which is lower than back on July 14, but still elevated.

Interestingly, the 3-month LIBOR is 5.24 pct vs the 3-month T-Bill at 3.85 pct. I’m wondering if somebody in the Cara community would chart the T-Bill-LIBOR spread against the goldminer index (GDX or $XAU) and the EUR:USD cross rate. Would be interesting.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

---

Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

---

TLT dropped from 88.72 to 88.22 this week, -0.50 pct. But the loss happened on Friday (-1.08 pct) amidst the bankers telling us all is well and bond traders not believing it.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

---

IEF Monthly data series chart:

---

TLT Monthly data series chart:

---

AGG Monthly data series chart:

---

LQD Monthly data series chart:

---

TIP Monthly data series chart:

---

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

---

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

---

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	67.30	-0.09	-0.13%	10.67%	7.30%	7.65%	12.43%	0.64%	23.87%	17.21%
FRE	63.43	0.24	0.38%	7.49%	5.10%	6.95%	-6.57%	4.15%	5.93%	-5.31%
CFC	20.25	0.37	1.86%	6.52%	3.26%	11.20%	-51.91%	-44.75%	-39.84%	-44.60%
SHY	80.97	-0.09	-0.11%	-0.36%	-0.26%	-0.28%	1.16%	1.50%	0.96%	0.99%
TLT	88.28	-0.96	-1.08%	-0.50%	0.44%	-2.24%	-0.89%	5.36%	0.60%	-1.03%
TIP	101.30	-0.60	-0.59%	-0.72%	-0.30%	-0.91%	2.09%	3.35%	0.73%	0.62%
IEF	83.20	-0.74	-0.88%	-0.81%	-0.28%	-1.99%	0.63%	3.78%	0.59%	0.18%
AGG	98.87	-0.79	-0.79%	-1.15%	-0.84%	-1.33%	-1.04%	1.22%	-1.05%	-1.03%

Freddie Mac (FRE gain of +7.5 pct vs loss of -2.22 pct the previous week), Fannie Mae (FNM gain of +10.7 pct vs loss of -3.05 pct) and Countrywide Financial (CFC gain of +6.5 pct vs loss of -3.06 pct) showed a remarkable turnaround. But, this is like rolling dice.

A week ago, traders were getting the message that the problems of the housing market and mortgage loan market in the US will take maybe a year or two to resolve, and this week – until Friday at least – the story was “be happy; no problem mon” and traders believed it.

More than likely, though, it was the HB&B prop trading desks being told to hit the buy button. How else can you explain Fannie Mae jumping +10.7 pct in a single week, or Hovnanian (HOV) gaining +12.4 pct W/W. These numbers are ridiculous. The only explanation is that the Fed and HB&B have worked a deal to reflate. In that case, buy Gold! There will be greater security in Gold than these mortgage lenders and housebuilders.

With respect to a comment from “onlineaces”, I can’t say I disagree that Hovnanian is in tough. Clearly it is.

These housebuilder companies were aggressively buying land banks and building houses on spec and others on contracts that buyers reneged on or chose to worm their way out of due to some picayune deficiency. But, that doesn’t make CEO Ara Hovnanian the ogre that Reggie Middleton paints him out to be.

---

Bill/All,
In regards to HOV, I'm a big follower of Reggie Middleton Blog and consider his research and DD better than I could ever achieve myself.
This September 2007 article says it all concerning HOV:

Posted by: onlineaces at October 6, 2007 6:54 PM

---

Like any mortgage company during this period, the financial services division of Hovnanian got into trouble, which made it double jeopardy for a housebuilder, which in addition speaks to my point that every company should work to eliminate its conflicts of interest.

I don’t know Reggie Middleton or Ara Hovnanian (49) or Ara’s father Kevork (83), who founded the company in 1967, but somehow I suspect Reggie would have a tough time lifting Kevork’s briefcase.

Well actually I checked Reggie’s blog to see he just started it Sept 1, and describes himself as a techie who makes frequent “smart ass comments”, whose interests are “beautiful women” and his children. I suspect (although I don’t know) he is no longer married. Apparently he subscribes to the economic hard landing theory and figures on more bust in the housing sector, where he says he made a lot of money until he sold at the top. (Don’t we all?) For an informative blog, he lists Kudlow.

That’s more than you need to know.

The Hovnanian family built a successful multi-billion dollar company faster than Warren Buffet, and then they ran into the worst downturn in housing in America since the Great Depression, and presently have a company the market values at about $775 million (Yahoo Finance). The present economic situation doesn’t make them bad people. In fact, as the second chart shows, until the 2Q07, the Hovnanian stock outperformed the Buffett Berkshire Hathaway stock from the start of the present Bull market.

And the record will show that I believed all US housebuilders had reached a stockmarket cycle peak in the summer of 2005 amid the cross-country tour and hype of CNBC’s Bill Griffeth. But traders know that companies are not share prices. Hovnanian stays in the Cara 100, hopefully for the next ten years, or as long as somebody wrote, “I’m vertical”.

There is no question that the Hovnanians will sell off mortgages and housing inventory at fire-sale prices, and take big losses. The price to book value is presently at 0.45 for that reason. In the restructuring and recovery process, they will end up with a smaller company. Probably a stronger company. Assuredly one that knows how to produce a good product at a considerable profit into a market that will always need houses.

Today there are seven major broker-dealers whose analysts follow the stock (as listed by Yahoo Finance): UBS, Banc of America Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Securites, JP Morgan, and JMP Securities. On a scale of 1.0 (Strong Buy) to 5.0 (Strong Sell), the consensus of five analysts is 3.1, which is slightly negative, but still a Hold. The median 12-month Price Target is $12.00, with a range of $8 to $13. On Sept. 25, UBS, a pretty fair research house and bank, initiated coverage at Neutral. This summer, Banc of America and Citigroup rated HOV a Neutral/Hold.

Let’s see… Reggie Middleton (five-week blogger who makes he says “smart ass comments”) or HB&B? Hmmm. While the people I know at HB&B understand my disdain for the industry structure, they also know I think they are competent professionals. How do I think that? Because I worked with them for many years. The only difference between them and me is that their work is highly specialized and I am a generalist who likes to write stuff for the People.

Final comment on the subject other than to say, if you don’t like the company, don’t buy the stock. If you like the company but don’t like its circumstances or prospects, don’t buy the stock. Otherwise, admit you have an axe to grind, such as mine when it comes to a Sell-side domination and control of Buy-side capital markets. But, when it comes to trading prices, I have an open mind.

---

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

---

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

---

Commodities Review

$CRB index lost -4.46 (-1.34 pct) W/W to close at 329.21. That ended a succession of five W/W gains, and had a lot to do with Prof. Poole from the St. Louis Fed making his silly comment at 2pm a week ago Friday that the Fed might lift rates. That got everybody else at the Fed and HB&B lined up this week to give Mr. Market his marching orders (“No problem here; we have it all under control.”) Ergo, equities up, commodities down.

For now.

The 50-day Moving Average for $CRB is now at 317.43 and the 200-day MA is 311.43.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

---

Oil Review

The Crude Oil futures market ($WTIC in the US for Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) lost -0.44/bbl (-0.54 pct W/W) to close at 81.22.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is 76.04 and the 200d MA is 66.62, so Oil is still well above both the 50d MA and 200d MA lines.

But Prof. Poole scared the daylights out of commodity traders by suggesting rates might rise. Moreover, I often think that the Admin must be selling oil contracts whenever the markets need a boost because the two always go hand in hand.

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

---

Gold & Precious Metals Review

This week, $GOLD consolidated with a small drop of -2.80 (-0.37 pct) to close at 747.20. A week ago, $GOLD rallied a further 11.10 (+1.50 pct W/W), and $SILVER rocketed another +0.30 (+2.20 pct) on top of previous very strong weeks.

For $GOLD, the 50day MA is now 699.92 and the 200d MA is 670.77.

Yes, there was a sell-off this week, but it was a mild one for gold, a little bigger for silver. The others in the PM group, however, soared this week. So, I don’t think the selling is anything more than consolidating the previous gains.

Spot gold chart for the week

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

---

Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER lost -0.43/oz (-3.09 pct) to close at 13.49. Friday was a flat day.

The 50d MA is 12.79 and the 200d MA is 13.17.

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

---

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

This week, $PLAT gained +17.90/oz (+1.31 pct) to close at 1387.80. The previous week the gain was +33.80/oz (+2.53 pct), and the week before that $PLAT gained +32.30/oz (+2.48 pct).

On Aug 18, $PLAT closed the week at 1233.20. A gain of 154.50 in seven weeks. Now that’s a Bull run.

The 50d MA is 1300.10 and the 200d MA is 1264.02.

---

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

This week, $PALL gained +22.25/0z (+6.32 pct) to close at 374.20. A week ago, the gain was +2.74 pct, so $PALL has also had a nice run in the past two weeks.

The 50d MA is 349.14 and the 200d MA is 357.62.

Somebody wrote to me recently about an industry demand shift for the metal, and I took exception that every time there is a run in these metals, there is a lot of carefully timed misinformation and outdated “news” dumped into the market.

Now you see why I say some of the things I do.

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

This week, $COPPER gained +8.55 (+2.35 pct) to close at 372.55 for the contracts. A week ago, the gain was +4.75 (+1.32 pct). Although looking at a small window can’t tell you much about the economy, a couple weeks gains for $COPPER is not the stuff of which recessions are made.

At this point, I am not certain there will be a recession in North America. There is so much “quantitative easing” going on, that reflation seems to be the word on people’s minds – not recession. But, my bearish broad market price level scenario is not based on monetary policy as much as it is with earnings momentum and (especially) the growing possibility of another financial system problem like Northern Rock.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 344.40 and the 200d MA is 322.02, so the current price (372.55) is now well above both the 50d MA and 200d MA.

---

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AEM	51.78	2.38	4.82%	3.98%	3.96%	5.27%	33.04%	30.76%	38.08%	72.72%
NEM	45.56	0.51	1.13%	1.86%	-4.21%	3.05%	3.08%	15.11%	4.42%	8.92%
BVN	48.64	1.02	2.14%	1.80%	6.02%	14.69%	76.17%	25.62%	55.55%	94.17%
KGC	15.24	0.36	2.42%	1.74%	-1.55%	16.87%	33.45%	23.10%	7.02%	27.21%
ABX	40.92	0.37	0.91%	1.59%	2.15%	11.65%	37.18%	36.26%	39.52%	39.56%
MDG	33.46	0.68	2.07%	1.09%	-2.36%	14.35%	27.27%	18.69%	22.43%	38.49%
GG	30.86	0.47	1.55%	0.98%	2.05%	18.74%	12.87%	23.64%	20.22%	39.70%
AUY	11.86	0.24	2.07%	0.68%	-5.95%	0.68%	-3.81%	2.86%	-19.97%	39.86%
GFI	18.12	0.43	2.43%	0.17%	0.17%	11.99%	-1.15%	15.19%	-5.53%	0.39%

This week, $XAU gained +2.52 (+1.49 pct) to close at 171.27. But you see the gain on Friday (+1.70 pct).

The 50d MA is 150.35 and the 200d MA is 142.41.

I don’t think the public is even involved at this point. These stocks will go much higher, but watch the spec companies (ie, the explorers) and the ones like Western Goldfields that are ramping up new production.

So, Western Goldfields (WGI.TO) came through on cue. The stock jumped +3.80 pct to C$3.55. At 750 Gold, this stock has plenty of upside yet.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

---

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Somebody liked a Vancouver-based silver royalty company that I looked at briefly, but passed on because I didn’t like several things about it, like I don’t know the people and they clearly have an aversion for transparency. But the big thing was that there was a ton of paper that was becoming free-trading as of this weekend. I didn’t like the obvious bullish reference in this blog from one of their supporters right before lettered stock (restricted from trading) goes free-trading.

But, the fact is that I can’t even remember the name of the stock or the person who commented. These things aren’t personal. But you have to know what to look for, and understand that I have a responsibility here not to promote into somebody’s vested interests. There are take-out specialists among too many market newsletters and financial reporters as it is. So whether or not people want to set me up, it’s something I have to be on guard for – even if the person is trying to help, or thinking they are helping. That’s why I need open discourse and research into the “penny dreadful” ideas that pop up here occasionally.

And by the way, I use the term “penny dreadful” in an endearing way, since companies like Aurelian (ARU.TO) were formerly impecunious as lawyers like to say. Now they are rich, as the chart shows, and it happened right after PDAC 2006, and the CFO and I used to work together in accounting, and he had contacted me re some of the trading tools I use, not long before their big discovery in Ecuador. Woulda, coulda.

In any case, the silver royalty company I like is (Cara 100) Silver Wheaton – for the reasons I gave in the blog this week and previously.

---

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

---

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

---

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

---

Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The $USD regained some ground for the USD Bulls. A week ago, the $USD fell -0.82 (-1.05 pct), but this week it was up +0.53 (+0.69 pct) to close at 78.31.

This chart looks like a train track into the ocean. Nobody knows how far it can go down.

Well this week, the Fed and HB&B did what they could to plug holes into the dike holding back the ocean. Do you think these people have more fingers than the dike has holes? I guess we’ll find out.

The following data is a simulation of the M3 as of the past week.

“US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates. They have no option under the circumstances. The economy is relatively strong, but the credit markets are imploding.”

I will add that the Fed and HB&B are now saying they have the problem under control. It’s good to put these things on the record. Later, when the truth comes out, you can, I think, call a person an idiot without slandering them. You can point to the results and record of accomplishment, what I call “proof of concept”.

I think in politics there is too high a burden on a person to explain things they did or said ten years ago, and at the same time not enough burden to justify their continued existence (as persons of power) on the basis of what they did in the past year.

We make fun of the Helicopter Ben thing, but that was many years ago, under different circumstances. The person has to be judged on the decisions and statements that are being made now, in a difficult situation.

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

The Euro ($XEU) this week lost -1.39 (-0.97 pct) to close at 141.35.

A week ago, it gained +1.86 (+1.32 pct W/W) to close at 142.74, a new record.

The Euro’s 50d MA is 137.97 and the 200d MA is 134.57.

---

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

This week, the Pound lost -0.37 (-0.18 pct) to close at 204.22.

A week ago, it gained +2.52 (+1.25 pct) to close at 204.59.

The 50d MA is 201.84 and the 200d MA is 198.81. The recent high was 206.40 (July).

---

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -1.67 !! (-1.92 pct W/W) to close at 85.49.

A week ago, it gained +0.45 (+0.52 pct W/W) to close at 87.16, so this week was a huge drop in the Yen. That helped the Carry Trade and the US equity markets, and Platinum and Palladium, but so far not Gold or Silver.

The 50d MA for the Yen is 86.14 and the 200d MA is 83.93.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

---

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

A week ago, the Loonie spiked upward from par, gaining +0.70 (+0.70 pct) to close at 100.74. This week, a new spike was something to behold. The Loonie (ie, the Cdn Dollar) rocketed +1.11 (+1.10 pct) to close at 101.85. But the real action was limited to Friday (along with Gold and Goldminer share prices), as the Loonie lifted in a single day by +1.64 pct.

Has that ever happened before? Could it be that Goldman Sachs is that thankful their former 42-y.o. protégé Mark Carney got the job they need him to have?

Or maybe it’s because, as the headlines suggest, Canada has finally broken the 6 pct unemployment barrier? Not that statistics mean anything other than lies, lies, more damned lies.

The Loonie’s 50d MA is 96.27 and the 200d MA is 90.85, which aren’t even in the same world with the current price.

”Parity will take some getting used to and adjustment. (WIR#39)”

“Markets tend to overshoot” (WIR#40) :-)

This is a double boost to all Canadians who have held a desire to buy the Sunshine Coast of the State of Florida north of Miami, and call it their 11th Province (or 4th Territory or whatever). Over-priced Loonie, and crashing Florida condo prices !! Wow!

But, just watch those personal taxes. Did you know (of course you did) that the Bahamas Dollar is pegged at par to the USD, so that means the Loonie:B$ is a heck of a deal right now. And I know some real estate you’ll want to buy. (LOL)

---

International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

---

Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

---

International Equity Markets Review

Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe. All green arrows Friday.

---

Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index. Nothing exciting since Monday.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index . A good week.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index . Closed this past week for holidays.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index . Big rally Friday.

---

Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index . Flat on Friday, but what a terrific year!

---

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

---

US Equity Markets Review

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

---

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

---

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HD	34.22	0.48	1.42%	5.49%	-0.73%	0.03%	-16.68%	-14.08%	-9.99%	-8.16%
PFE	25.58	0.28	1.11%	4.71%	4.03%	5.48%	-2.70%	-1.24%	-1.01%	-8.61%
GM	38.20	0.88	2.36%	4.09%	9.33%	29.27%	29.71%	3.92%	19.75%	15.30%
WMT	45.37	0.37	0.82%	3.94%	2.58%	7.03%	-4.58%	-5.66%	-6.01%	-6.28%
JPM	47.58	0.33	0.70%	3.84%	0.95%	9.33%	-1.02%	-2.48%	-2.44%	0.36%
MRK	53.51	0.65	1.23%	3.52%	3.26%	7.95%	21.56%	7.41%	17.50%	29.19%
C	48.30	0.67	1.41%	3.49%	1.66%	6.20%	-12.58%	-6.58%	-6.34%	-5.28%
MCD	56.37	0.33	0.59%	3.49%	2.86%	14.48%	28.49%	10.08%	23.13%	41.63%
DIS	35.47	0.57	1.63%	3.14%	2.51%	5.60%	3.71%	2.43%	1.60%	14.16%
AXP	61.10	1.34	2.24%	2.91%	3.07%	5.80%	1.23%	-0.46%	9.19%	7.86%
AIG	69.39	0.47	0.68%	2.57%	3.21%	9.19%	-3.83%	-1.25%	3.21%	3.20%
MMM	95.85	1.60	1.70%	2.43%	4.55%	7.79%	22.48%	9.22%	24.89%	26.25%
CAT	80.33	1.69	2.15%	2.42%	2.78%	9.38%	31.34%	3.66%	18.78%	17.72%
HPQ	50.90	0.43	0.85%	2.23%	0.73%	4.20%	22.30%	10.89%	21.77%	34.51%
VZ	45.22	-0.20	-0.44%	2.12%	1.89%	9.39%	19.57%	7.72%	19.00%	22.51%
MSFT	29.84	0.13	0.44%	1.29%	4.15%	4.92%	-0.07%	-0.50%	4.52%	6.80%
KO	58.07	0.20	0.35%	1.04%	2.69%	6.37%	19.53%	10.25%	17.27%	29.53%
GE	41.77	0.07	0.17%	0.89%	1.26%	7.79%	10.01%	8.38%	19.27%	15.10%
JNJ	66.25	0.14	0.21%	0.84%	1.74%	7.41%	-0.23%	6.37%	7.64%	1.75%
PG	70.83	0.00	0.00%	0.70%	2.08%	8.19%	9.75%	14.85%	12.43%	11.51%
HON	59.82	0.23	0.39%	0.59%	1.93%	9.34%	32.64%	2.50%	26.58%	39.86%
UTX	80.84	0.75	0.94%	0.45%	1.78%	9.55%	28.71%	12.09%	24.50%	22.78%
MO	69.56	-0.13	-0.19%	0.04%	1.49%	3.22%	7.15%	-2.25%	-1.68%	18.22%
DD	49.55	-0.08	-0.16%	-0.02%	-0.28%	4.32%	1.04%	-4.82%	0.47%	14.12%
T	42.14	0.15	0.36%	-0.40%	-0.92%	8.80%	20.57%	2.88%	7.31%	31.98%
AA	38.79	1.13	3.00%	-0.84%	3.72%	11.24%	32.25%	-6.19%	12.14%	40.70%
INTC	25.54	-0.06	-0.23%	-1.24%	-1.28%	0.27%	25.50%	3.82%	30.44%	23.03%
IBM	116.30	0.61	0.53%	-1.27%	-0.41%	0.65%	19.56%	7.64%	20.49%	40.26%
XOM	91.36	0.44	0.48%	-1.30%	-1.03%	6.54%	23.28%	7.28%	18.31%	35.71%
BA	102.25	-2.25	-2.15%	-2.61%	-0.33%	7.81%	14.67%	3.95%	12.98%	22.28%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

---

Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The Value Line reports last week were for Home Depot (HD) and Procter & Gamble (PG).

(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Dec. 7)

(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Dec. 7)

You know I like PG, but I also like HD under new management. I like the change in their capital structure, and the fewer shares and higher dividend yield that will be available from the Company. With the extra leverage, this will become more of an interest rate play than it had been previously. As rates increase, profits will fall, and vice versa. There will also be huge write-offs upcoming, I think, but in 12 months or so, this Company will probably be well positioned for solid Total Returns looking forward five years. Posted by: Bill Cara at October 4, 2007 4:41 PM

On Friday morning, I recommended the stock to PhyllisM as a long-term buy and hold. The stock was up +5.49 pct this week, including +1.42 pct on Friday. It was the Dow 30 #1 performer this week, although the stock is still down -14.1 pct over 3 months and -16.7 pct YTD. The point being that things change quickly in capital markets. If you get caught up in the media bandwagon of smashing these names unmercifully, or you marry the notion that the sky is always blue, you simply miss the buying and selling opportunities when they present themselves.

I say, you let the other people do the talking. It’s our job to listen with an open mind, discuss in a forum of mutual respect, think about the important issues and then act where it benefits your portfolio. The market is about us. Your portfolio and mine. The rest is about sales pitches and random and unnecessary noise, which we can do without.

---

The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

---

Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

---

American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

---

Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 21: next one is due Dec. 21)

---

Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

---

Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

---

Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

---

Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

---

ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 14: next one is due Dec. 14)

---

General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

---

General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

---

Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

---

Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Dec. 7)

---

Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

---

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

---

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

---

Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

---

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

---

3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

---

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Dec. 7)

---

United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

---

Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

---

Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug 10: next one is due Nov 9)

---

Wrap up:

I am now much closer to getting the office/residence I wanted in Nassau, so I am hopeful matters will proceed this week. With the Cambridge Gold Show and my Book publication date (and road show) upcoming, it may be a few weeks before I return, however.

If any of you are going to be in Nassau on Tuesday Oct 23, I’m sure my private banker would like to extend an invitation (through me) to a cocktail reception in honor of their new offices in the Centre of Commerce at the British Colonial Hilton. My friend Michael Wong, who was the design architect of those buildings, dropped in last month to check out those offices at EFG Bank & Trust. See Annual Report.

My banker will also be attending an International Trusts & Tax Planning Conference at the New York City Marriott East Side 525 Lexington Ave at 49th Street from Oct. 15-17, staying for client meetings through the 20th. If you would like to meet, please contact me and I’ll set it up.

Thanksgiving Sunday today (for Canadians). Big dinner planned. If the weather improves, I may take off tomorrow for a day trip, which means I will not return to the blog until Tuesday. I have discovered the weather is not as good in Toronto as it is in Nassau (LOL) – so I am always working, while here.

It’s been a slice. Have a good one. Wherever you are in this big world, we are connected. Not always in agreement, but definitely discussing, listening, thinking, improving…

---