Yes, I think the evidence is mounting – probably overwhelming at this point – that the equity market is at the top of its long-term cycle. As I see it, half the world is in a Bull market and half has already started the Bear cycle. In the Week In Review (WIR) that I will publish Sunday morning, I’ll explain Why.

Although probably 99 pct of you disagree, in naming Bull or Bear, the Who comes easy. The equity markets of the US, Japan, UK and Germany have topped out, whereas another intermediate-term bull phase can be expected from India and China, Hong Kong and Singapore, Russia and Brazil, Canada and Australia.

What I am saying is that the super powers have spent their ammunition, and need time to re-load.

It won’t be a pretty sight watching. Something like 1973-74, or maybe 81-82, hopefully 87, and hopefully not like 2000-2002. Nobody knows at this point. All I know is that the cancer is terminal, and life in these markets continues hoping beyond hope, pumped up by the desperate Talking Heads of the corporate kowtowing financial media.

The second group doesn’t need hope at this stage. A developing middle class of consumers and savers in India and China -- well over a third of the world’s population -- is driving economic growth and corporate employment and profitability. The ammunition I spoke of came from you know Who.

The relatively small offshore centres of Hong Kong and Singapore serve as financial bridges to those huge emerging markets, while Russia, Brazil, Canada and Australia provides the natural resource commodities that rapidly growing Chindia requires.

But international trade and commerce does not operate in a vacuum. The fiscal, economic, financial and/or currency ills of the super-powers will at some point – likely not more than six to nine months later – spread to the rest of the world.

That’s not a scenario that is either popular or promoted in today’s media. Nonetheless, based on my observations and analysis of capital market prices, it’s how I size up what’s happening to the world today.

First there was the popping of the housing bubble, then the credit market bubble, and soon to come will be the presently developing commodity bubble.

Reversion to the mean. It’s how markets work. The market is us. In the long run, averages win.

This is not rocket science.

---

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	35.77	0.37	1.05%	4.59%	3.38%	8.39%	-3.11%	-2.00%	0.03%	1.39%
XLY	37.97	0.61	1.63%	3.38%	2.35%	5.68%	-1.43%	-4.62%	-2.27%	5.65%
XLU	40.90	0.32	0.79%	2.43%	1.44%	4.82%	11.08%	2.07%	0.49%	18.86%
IYH	72.38	0.62	0.86%	2.25%	2.33%	5.57%	8.91%	2.68%	5.46%	9.62%
XLB	42.91	0.67	1.59%	1.88%	3.22%	10.68%	23.98%	4.15%	11.57%	34.81%
XLI	41.58	0.45	1.09%	1.41%	2.34%	7.41%	18.02%	5.11%	16.05%	21.15%
IYZ	34.18	0.08	0.23%	0.97%	0.97%	5.07%	15.24%	-0.78%	8.13%	22.91%
SMH	38.45	0.48	1.26%	0.39%	-0.34%	1.69%	14.54%	-1.13%	12.30%	12.46%
XLE	75.04	0.29	0.39%	0.13%	-0.87%	6.80%	32.63%	6.36%	21.52%	42.55%
XLP	27.90	0.09	0.32%	-0.14%	0.87%	4.34%	6.16%	2.42%	2.99%	9.80%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	78.82	2.67	3.51%	4.40%	7.82%	22.89%	58.18%	21.17%	54.31%	93.99%
ECA	62.61	0.62	1.00%	1.23%	0.00%	6.10%	38.09%	0.81%	20.24%	36.23%
SU	95.56	1.46	1.55%	0.79%	-0.38%	5.03%	29.29%	4.79%	23.30%	39.87%
XOM	91.36	0.44	0.48%	-1.30%	-1.03%	6.54%	23.28%	7.28%	18.31%	35.71%
CVX	92.32	0.48	0.52%	-1.35%	-2.66%	5.33%	30.08%	6.64%	22.10%	44.52%
CEO	164.04	9.88	6.41%	-1.44%	5.96%	34.32%	74.01%	39.38%	85.99%	101.82%
IMO	48.55	1.14	2.40%	-2.04%	-3.17%	8.27%	36.15%	2.73%	28.64%	48.38%
TOT	77.89	-0.01	-0.01%	-3.88%	-4.36%	3.44%	9.75%	-5.07%	10.08%	19.65%
STO	32.40	-0.04	-0.12%	-4.48%	-6.41%	7.11%	26.12%	0.40%	18.81%	40.38%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	28.38	0.84	3.05%	8.24%	13.52%	20.56%	72.84%	6.73%	50.40%	104.61%
PKX	189.18	0.66	0.35%	5.82%	3.94%	25.40%	138.17%	49.16%	77.87%	187.95%
TCK	50.46	2.45	5.10%	5.76%	5.08%	24.13%	-27.13%	14.11%	-30.04%	-20.35%
RTP	348.55	10.28	3.04%	1.50%	6.07%	18.25%	70.77%	7.36%	45.71%	86.17%
TS	53.36	0.24	0.45%	1.41%	2.91%	18.11%	9.98%	6.44%	15.65%	51.59%
BHP	79.52	1.26	1.61%	1.17%	9.64%	23.90%	104.58%	24.48%	60.71%	110.82%
MT	78.00	1.87	2.46%	-0.46%	2.48%	21.91%	91.18%	20.52%	42.28%	119.47%
AA	38.79	1.13	3.00%	-0.84%	3.72%	11.24%	32.25%	-6.19%	12.14%	40.70%
RIO	33.56	1.51	4.71%	-1.09%	10.21%	-33.78%	16.45%	-29.30%	-15.57%	50.83%
NUE	58.04	1.05	1.84%	-2.40%	-2.45%	7.74%	6.50%	-2.54%	-12.73%	11.66%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ERJ	47.93	1.67	3.61%	9.13%	8.81%	8.07%	17.53%	-1.70%	1.63%	16.82%
ABB	26.97	0.08	0.30%	2.82%	5.43%	16.35%	51.35%	13.51%	50.67%	99.63%
MMM	95.85	1.60	1.70%	2.43%	4.55%	7.79%	22.48%	9.22%	24.89%	26.25%
CAT	80.33	1.69	2.15%	2.42%	2.78%	9.38%	31.34%	3.66%	18.78%	17.72%
FDX	106.06	1.31	1.25%	1.25%	1.88%	-1.99%	-3.38%	-3.91%	-2.54%	-6.08%
GE	41.77	0.07	0.17%	0.89%	1.26%	7.79%	10.01%	8.38%	19.27%	15.10%
HON	59.82	0.23	0.39%	0.59%	1.93%	9.34%	32.64%	2.50%	26.58%	39.86%
UTX	80.84	0.75	0.94%	0.45%	1.78%	9.55%	28.71%	12.09%	24.50%	22.78%
BA	102.25	-2.25	-2.15%	-2.61%	-0.33%	7.81%	14.67%	3.95%	12.98%	22.28%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	68.71	2.39	3.60%	8.43%	3.35%	5.59%	-11.98%	-3.73%	-18.26%	-2.43%
BC	24.21	0.67	2.85%	5.91%	8.23%	4.26%	-24.15%	-25.58%	-24.60%	-23.99%
WHR	94.29	2.36	2.57%	5.82%	2.26%	1.64%	11.37%	-15.88%	9.30%	9.23%
CCL	50.80	0.80	1.60%	4.89%	3.23%	13.60%	-0.29%	5.70%	8.66%	5.24%
DIS	35.47	0.57	1.63%	3.14%	2.51%	5.60%	3.71%	2.43%	1.60%	14.16%
NKE	60.35	0.99	1.67%	2.88%	5.40%	10.33%	23.59%	1.68%	12.85%	35.59%
SBUX	26.84	0.32	1.21%	2.44%	-2.29%	-1.18%	-23.86%	1.90%	-14.52%	-30.63%
TM	117.67	1.38	1.19%	0.69%	2.27%	3.86%	-13.03%	-7.48%	-6.97%	1.99%
EBAY	38.75	-0.41	-1.05%	-0.69%	-0.64%	9.93%	28.44%	20.08%	14.95%	27.22%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	80.65	3.07	3.96%	10.28%	11.30%	22.68%	64.26%	11.83%	43.48%	74.04%
WFMI	53.20	2.12	4.15%	8.66%	18.14%	23.35%	16.97%	39.89%	17.23%	-14.12%
WMT	45.37	0.37	0.82%	3.94%	2.58%	7.03%	-4.58%	-5.66%	-6.01%	-6.28%
BUD	51.60	0.68	1.34%	3.22%	2.04%	3.53%	4.84%	-0.96%	0.98%	9.25%
DEO	90.44	-0.17	-0.19%	3.09%	4.28%	5.59%	13.72%	8.44%	10.36%	25.45%
KO	58.07	0.20	0.35%	1.04%	2.69%	6.37%	19.53%	10.25%	17.27%	29.53%
PG	70.83	0.00	0.00%	0.70%	2.08%	8.19%	9.75%	14.85%	12.43%	11.51%
PEP	73.74	-0.13	-0.18%	0.66%	3.22%	8.47%	17.57%	11.88%	15.80%	13.83%
MO	69.56	-0.13	-0.19%	0.04%	1.49%	3.22%	7.15%	-2.25%	-1.68%	18.22%
WAG	39.30	-0.47	-1.18%	-16.81%	-13.46%	-10.99%	-14.70%	-10.50%	-15.01%	-9.43%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PFE	25.58	0.28	1.11%	4.71%	4.03%	5.48%	-2.70%	-1.24%	-1.01%	-8.61%
BMY	30.09	0.35	1.18%	4.41%	3.76%	8.20%	14.06%	-5.70%	8.16%	22.72%
GSK	54.07	-0.07	-0.13%	1.64%	-0.30%	1.88%	0.48%	3.76%	-3.86%	0.22%
JNJ	66.25	0.14	0.21%	0.84%	1.74%	7.41%	-0.23%	6.37%	7.64%	1.75%
AMGN	56.84	1.45	2.62%	0.48%	2.56%	11.67%	-16.90%	3.61%	-2.55%	-23.94%
DNA	78.28	0.28	0.36%	0.33%	-1.39%	-1.02%	-4.30%	2.06%	-6.14%	-6.48%
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	1.05%	8.47%	41.68%
AET	53.83	0.75	1.41%	-0.81%	2.85%	7.15%	25.54%	6.70%	19.62%	30.78%
NVS	54.30	-0.17	-0.31%	-1.20%	-1.45%	1.69%	-6.60%	-2.07%	-2.62%	-6.86%
UNH	47.70	0.32	0.68%	-1.51%	-4.43%	-3.03%	-9.26%	-9.06%	-13.79%	-5.86%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MS	68.90	1.79	2.67%	9.37%	6.92%	10.24%	-15.58%	-5.54%	-14.20%	-7.59%
UBS	57.75	0.32	0.56%	8.45%	6.85%	10.87%	-5.93%	-4.67%	-4.88%	-5.28%
MER	76.67	1.89	2.53%	7.56%	2.60%	4.77%	-18.10%	-8.62%	-10.93%	-6.25%
HBC	98.71	1.18	1.21%	6.60%	6.64%	10.89%	6.17%	7.21%	10.07%	4.81%
GS	228.50	2.55	1.13%	5.43%	8.82%	27.67%	13.84%	3.24%	9.89%	30.20%
DB	135.16	0.10	0.07%	5.27%	4.55%	9.01%	-0.13%	-7.44%	-1.88%	9.02%
CS	69.61	0.18	0.26%	4.94%	4.85%	7.49%	-0.71%	-3.77%	-3.72%	16.52%
JPM	47.58	0.33	0.70%	3.84%	0.95%	9.33%	-1.02%	-2.48%	-2.44%	0.36%
LEH	63.98	0.76	1.20%	3.64%	2.04%	20.83%	-18.63%	-14.26%	-10.44%	-15.58%
C	48.30	0.67	1.41%	3.49%	1.66%	6.20%	-12.58%	-6.58%	-6.34%	-5.28%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
INFY	52.43	1.38	2.70%	8.35%	12.46%	9.87%	-6.08%	4.46%	1.16%	9.16%
CTSH	85.79	2.45	2.94%	7.52%	13.07%	20.71%	10.33%	15.29%	-1.12%	13.72%
QCOM	43.36	0.58	1.36%	2.60%	6.20%	14.44%	15.75%	-0.41%	0.14%	19.58%
ORCL	22.18	0.42	1.92%	2.44%	0.90%	10.01%	26.66%	8.24%	18.79%	21.33%
ADBE	44.64	0.39	0.88%	2.24%	6.41%	3.91%	11.82%	9.06%	4.76%	16.92%
ADSK	50.56	0.59	1.18%	1.18%	3.78%	11.98%	24.65%	10.42%	27.84%	43.80%
SAP	59.23	1.34	2.31%	0.95%	1.01%	6.99%	11.33%	16.99%	26.78%	16.50%
INTC	25.54	-0.06	-0.23%	-1.24%	-1.28%	0.27%	25.50%	3.82%	30.44%	23.03%
CSCO	32.65	0.50	1.55%	-1.45%	1.08%	3.58%	17.70%	15.08%	25.28%	36.44%
SNDK	52.10	-1.09	-2.05%	-5.44%	-2.73%	-1.57%	24.88%	8.34%	17.08%	-6.26%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.85	3.81	3.64	4.20
6 Month	4.02	3.97	3.91	4.22
2 Year	4.07	3.97	3.97	4.00
3 Year	4.11	4.00	4.01	4.01
5 Year	4.33	4.20	4.24	4.14
10 Year	4.64	4.52	4.58	4.46
30 Year	4.87	4.76	4.83	4.77

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.46	3.39	3.40	3.59
2yr AAA	3.39	3.45	3.49	3.62
2yr A	3.37	3.43	3.47	3.67
5yr AAA	3.50	3.48	3.48	3.60
5yr AA	3.45	3.47	3.49	3.62
5yr A	3.72	3.70	3.70	3.82
10yr AAA	3.76	3.78	3.77	3.99
10yr AA	3.74	3.76	3.78	3.97
10yr A	3.89	3.91	3.90	4.22
20yr AAA	4.29	4.44	4.33	4.59
20yr AA	4.48	4.64	4.73	4.62
20yr A	4.30	4.45	4.33	4.65

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.77	4.68	4.81	4.88
2yr A	4.88	4.84	4.89	4.98
5yr AAA	4.77	4.45	5.06	4.97
5yr AA	5.19	5.06	5.14	5.27
5yr A	5.24	5.13	5.21	5.21
10yr AAA	5.52	5.45	5.38	5.40
10yr AA	5.71	5.62	5.79	5.82
10yr A	5.80	5.68	5.78	5.83
20yr AAA	5.95	5.87	5.96	6.18
20yr AA	6.32	6.25	6.33	6.29
20yr A	6.28	6.21	6.29	6.32

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	67.30	-0.09	-0.13%	10.67%	7.30%	7.65%	12.43%	0.64%	23.87%	17.21%
FRE	63.43	0.24	0.38%	7.49%	5.10%	6.95%	-6.57%	4.15%	5.93%	-5.31%
CFC	20.25	0.37	1.86%	6.52%	3.26%	11.20%	-51.91%	-44.75%	-39.84%	-44.60%
SHY