Yesterday's session was driven by corporate earnings reports in addition to key macro indicators, and fresh sanctions by the US against Iran and conflict between Turkey and the Kurds of Iraq. As a consequence of politics, the crude oil futures settled at an all-high price of $90.46.

Yet again, heading into the close there was a rally that took the DJIA (-3.33), S&P 500(-1.48), and Nasdaq Composite (-23.90 -0.86 pct) to smaller losses than traders had earlier in the day.

Reported single-family new home sales for September lifted +4.8 pct to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000. That figure, thanks to rising demand in the western US, provided some relief for the embattled housing sector.

On the negative side, US Durable Goods Orders for September dropped -1.7 pct to $214.53 billion, while overall business capital spending rose a tiny +0.4 pct.

On the earnings front, Motorola (MOT) 3Q net income plunged -94 pct to $60 million vs. $968 million a year earlier, yet some Talking Heads were spinning the company’s raised its outlook for 4Q earnings. Regardless, there is persistent weakness in cellphone sales, in the US and Europe.

(Cara 100) Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) 3Q net income more than doubled to $858 million vs. $338 million a year earlier, but this was largely due to divestiture gains.

(Cara 100) Aetna (AET) 3Q net income rose +4.3 pct to $496.7 million vs. $476.4 million a year earlier, which was due to increased membership plus higher premiums and fees.

Treasury prices fell and yields lifted after traders digested the durable goods and jobless claims data. The talk now is that the FOMC is virtually certain to drop rates next Wednesday, so precious metal prices are staying firm. To be expected, the USD pulled back, which pushed the gold and silver prices higher.

But today is Microsoft Day. Markets appear headed higher.

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

With no notable economic data to be released today, traders will focus on corporate earnings and posturing for next Wednesday’s Fed's interest rate decision. That decision will be released at the usual 2:15pm ET.

Earlier that day, at 8:15am the first of three monthly estimates of 3Q07 US real GDP (aggregate of econ activity) and the GDP price index will be released. Last month, the 2Q07 real GDP was reported to be an annualized +3.8 pct (revised down from the previous month’s estimate of 4.0 pct). The 2Q pace followed a nearly flat 1Q07 +0.6 pct annualized increase in real GDP. The GDP price index for the 2Q was reported to be 2.6 pct.

Econoday Report on the U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to be reported at 10:00am ET

Not being subject to independent checks and balances, these estimates are subject to Humungous error in every sense of the word. However, for a rule of thumb, traders can add the real GDP growth number (+3.8 pct) to the inflation number (+2.6 pct) to get a total (+6.4 pct) that represents the amount your cash must earn as a minimum to keep up to the economy.

It’s the thought that counts. The data is so biased, so inaccurate, that I take it as almost meaningless.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

RSI > 70 (11)

RSI < 30 (12 of 16)

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29)

Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary, Fed Head, and Humungous Bank & Broker are pumping, pumping, pumping...

I have pointed out for several weeks that “selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.”

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show in this section 2007_10_25 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	40.98	0.98	2.45%	0.84%	-1.01%	1.36%	11.30%	3.48%	-3.12%	13.64%
XLP	28.15	0.23	0.82%	0.18%	0.25%	0.93%	7.12%	3.49%	1.73%	8.77%
IYH	71.29	0.40	0.56%	-0.04%	-1.05%	0.30%	7.27%	2.12%	-0.49%	7.14%
XLB	42.50	0.35	0.83%	-0.45%	-1.12%	0.02%	22.80%	3.16%	7.51%	27.86%
XLI	40.27	0.07	0.17%	-1.64%	-2.11%	-1.44%	14.31%	-1.06%	8.17%	16.69%
XLY	36.13	-0.22	-0.61%	-1.77%	-4.06%	-1.42%	-6.20%	-6.81%	-9.11%	-2.14%
XLF	32.70	-0.23	-0.70%	-2.65%	-7.60%	-5.11%	-11.43%	-5.76%	-12.59%	-7.76%
XLE	75.93	0.84	1.12%	-2.68%	-0.81%	0.57%	34.20%	3.59%	18.34%	33.77%
IYZ	32.15	-0.16	-0.50%	-3.13%	-4.49%	-5.52%	8.40%	-7.35%	0.12%	11.48%
SMH	33.85	-0.60	-1.74%	-7.82%	-9.52%	-11.76%	0.83%	-13.52%	-10.21%	-0.56%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.79	3.68	3.70	3.66
6 Month	3.86	3.82	3.94	3.86
2 Year	3.77	3.73	3.90	3.98
3 Year	3.76	3.73	3.91	4.04
5 Year	4.02	3.98	4.14	4.26
10 Year	4.38	4.34	4.49	4.63
30 Year	4.68	4.64	4.77	4.90

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.32	3.34	3.39	3.45
2yr AAA	3.34	3.35	3.39	3.44
2yr A	3.36	3.37	3.47	3.42
5yr AAA	3.42	3.44	3.51	3.50
5yr AA	3.38	3.40	3.47	3.51
5yr A	3.59	3.60	3.76	3.73
10yr AAA	3.72	3.76	3.76	3.78
10yr AA	3.68	3.68	3.66	3.83
10yr A	3.85	3.89	3.89	3.91
20yr AAA	4.36	4.38	4.41	4.48
20yr AA	4.55	4.57	4.61	4.88
20yr A	4.37	4.39	4.42	4.49

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.56	4.51	4.67	4.80
2yr A	4.71	4.68	4.81	4.98
5yr AAA	4.77	4.76	4.86	5.03
5yr AA	4.98	4.96	5.07	5.18
5yr A	4.97	4.93	5.11	5.23
10yr AAA	5.21	5.27	5.39	5.42
10yr AA	5.50	5.59	5.66	5.81
10yr A	5.62	5.57	5.67	5.88
20yr AAA	5.65	5.65	5.77	6.02
20yr AA	5.85	5.83	5.96	5.96
20yr A	5.98	5.99	6.11	6.35

Yesterday, bond prices fell (and yields lifted), but the USD also fell on bad economic news, so traders are still asking, how low can the USD go?

At some point, financial institutions and the bond market must accurately price in risk (with higher interest rates and yields) or else watch gold quickly climb to the four digit prices.

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	90.71	-0.31	-0.34%	1.77%	3.01%	2.47%	1.84%	5.10%	2.51%	3.21%
TIP	103.44	0.29	0.28%	1.31%	2.39%	1.46%	4.24%	3.66%	2.36%	3.84%
IEF	85.09	-0.07	-0.09%	1.07%	2.11%	1.48%	2.91%	4.20%	2.33%	3.37%
AGG	100.85	-0.26	-0.26%	0.58%	1.21%	0.98%	0.94%	2.41%	0.52%	1.36%
SHY	81.48	-0.01	-0.01%	0.32%	0.70%	0.05%	1.80%	1.51%	1.37%	1.71%
FNM	57.26	1.06	1.89%	-5.99%	-13.18%	-7.65%	-4.34%	-8.95%	-2.85%	-3.24%
FRE	50.59	-0.46	-0.90%	-7.51%	-16.77%	-15.67%	-25.48%	-15.99%	-22.65%	-26.86%
CFC	13.07	-0.76	-5.50%	-20.84%	-28.50%	-30.74%	-68.96%	-56.53%	-65.35%	-66.26%

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB has hit 342.32. Wow. It was only August when I opined that the Fed did not want to see the index above 320. Yesterday alone it jumped +6.19 (+1.81 pct). So, let’s just agree it is out of control.

More likely, it’s the direct action of the Treasury Secretary whose fingerprints are everywhere these days save for the one place they ought to be -- on a police blotter. He can “talk” the USD up, but push it down, and that, not industrial or consumer demand, is going to zoom these commodity prices.

Commodity price increases today mean inflated wages and prices tomorrow. And, of course, more lies from the Administration that inflation is either not happening or under control, and they have their eye on it. (LOL)

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

December Crude Oil (e-MiNY) futures hit a record 92.20 mid day. This is out of control -- that is, not the oil price, but the Admin, and the political policies of the US.

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Everybody is asking about gold. Thanks to an increasingly weaker $USD, the PM beat goes on. Clearly, there is support for Gold, not just from the public (in growing numbers), but from most of the HB&B analysts, UBS, CS, BMO, RBC, etc.

Spot Gold this morning hit 779.0, and is presently (7:00am ET) at 775.4.

I still believe the price could drop to (just a guess) $700 in the next month or two, and that after a basing period, where smart money will be accumulating positions, there will be a subsequent run to over $1,000 per oz in 2008-9.

What I am saying is that today is a good market to trade for day traders only, in my opinion.

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Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver is 14.06, and reached a mid-morning high of 14.13.

I think we’ll see (say) a 13 price for silver, and then, sometime in 2008-9, a high of 18-20.

Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

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Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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With platinum, traders have to be wary of the Chinese equity markets. Higher prices and trader enthusiasm there typically means higher bids for platinum.

The Chinese people value platinum above gold. Expensive cars, expensive jewelery, expensive liquor, expensive clothing... nothing but the best. But when push comes to shove, when market prices fall and rumors start, they are quick to sell stock and join lines to remove their money from banks.

Generally speaking, the Chinese, are excellent traders, and devout risk-takers.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Spot Platinum is presently 1452 (7:05am ET)

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KGC	17.50	0.15	0.86%	2.34%	8.90%	17.06%	53.24%	26.90%	28.58%	39.66%
ABX	42.27	0.38	0.91%	0.33%	0.71%	7.89%	41.70%	24.51%	46.57%	37.82%
NEM	46.17	0.01	0.02%	0.07%	-1.83%	3.68%	4.46%	6.75%	4.39%	3.45%
GG	32.30	0.15	0.47%	-0.74%	0.78%	8.90%	18.14%	21.34%	27.32%	32.11%
GFI	17.90	-0.05	-0.28%	-1.21%	-3.50%	-0.89%	-2.35%	3.05%	-4.74%	0.67%
MDG	38.35	-0.25	-0.65%	-1.49%	2.70%	18.84%	45.87%	32.88%	43.58%	56.72%
AUY	13.91	-0.09	-0.64%	-2.18%	3.42%	20.54%	12.81%	18.69%	-4.20%	43.55%
BVN	51.57	-0.34	-0.65%	-2.81%	0.53%	2.65%	86.78%	23.08%	54.77%	96.53%
AEM	52.45	0.57	1.10%	-4.86%	-4.10%	8.95%	34.76%	22.83%	44.65%	52.34%

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

From mid-day Monday (78.2), the USD has fallen to 77.1. That is a catastrophe for the US Administration and its Treasury Secretary. If that man did not have so many markers to call from his friends at HB&B, he’d be turfed from his job. This is not the fault of the Chinese, Iraqi’s or Afghans.

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Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

hr>

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Europe

Strong markets early this morning in Europe. Go Windows. Go Office.

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Asia-Pacific

Strong markets in Asia-Pacific countries, particularly Hong Kong and India. Traders there must be over the (full) moon.

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	55.25	-1.72	-3.02%	2.31%	-2.33%	1.32%	21.86%	17.23%	31.17%	19.05%
IEV	121.16	0.96	0.80%	-0.29%	-0.40%	2.12%	14.73%	3.41%	4.74%	21.16%
TRF	70.27	0.27	0.39%	-0.33%	0.39%	1.11%	-20.64%	0.07%	-3.20%	1.91%
EWZ	79.48	0.98	1.25%	-0.55%	2.23%	6.57%	70.19%	19.63%	46.64%	87.36%
EWU	26.36	0.24	0.92%	-0.94%	-0.57%	2.77%	11.93%	3.25%	5.06%	14.96%
SPY	151.84	0.36	0.24%	-1.24%	-2.32%	-0.82%	7.41%	0.15%	1.58%	9.75%
QQQQ	53.05	-0.72	-1.34%	-1.36%	0.74%	2.85%	22.69%	7.39%	14.55%	25.03%
EWC	33.90	0.08	0.24%	-1.65%	0.53%	3.76%	37.25%	8.97%	20.99%	35.60%
EWJ	13.90	-0.05	-0.36%	-2.11%	-4.27%	-3.14%	-2.11%	-5.18%	-4.40%	-0.64%
FXI	207.50	1.01	0.49%	-2.35%	7.85%	13.95%	78.26%	46.55%	88.72%	142.35%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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US Equity Markets Review

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MRK	57.06	0.86	1.53%	6.87%	7.58%	9.10%	29.62%	6.89%	8.91%	23.86%
KO	61.30	1.12	1.86%	3.27%	7.19%	6.92%	26.18%	13.41%	18.48%	29.90%
MSFT	31.99	0.74	2.37%	2.66%	6.95%	8.48%	7.13%	4.17%	10.35%	13.00%
MCD	58.07	0.92	1.61%	2.25%	3.24%	6.43%	32.37%	13.95%	19.41%	38.26%
MO	72.26	-0.10	-0.14%	1.93%	3.30%	4.00%	11.31%	6.50%	2.54%	17.29%
AXP	59.76	0.82	1.39%	1.88%	-4.31%	0.32%	-0.99%	-3.19%	-4.11%	5.10%
PG	71.35	-0.03	-0.04%	0.63%	-0.59%	1.78%	10.55%	13.29%	12.31%	13.02%
DD	48.34	0.80	1.68%	0.39%	-0.94%	-3.32%	-1.43%	-1.73%	-3.26%	5.94%
JPM	46.05	-0.22	-0.48%	0.33%	-1.31%	-0.35%	-4.20%	1.72%	-12.82%	-2.58%
AA	38.39	0.19	0.50%	0.03%	0.81%	-1.56%	30.89%	-6.16%	7.35%	38.24%
VZ	44.91	0.49	1.10%	-0.13%	-1.69%	0.51%	18.75%	3.91%	19.28%	17.26%
DIS	34.45	-0.61	-1.74%	-0.95%	-1.60%	0.70%	0.73%	-1.37%	-2.46%	10.42%
BA	96.00	1.74	1.85%	-0.97%	-0.27%	-8.97%	7.66%	-10.47%	1.38%	18.72%
PFE	24.29	0.31	1.29%	-1.02%	-4.56%	-1.86%	-7.61%	-1.98%	-7.71%	-11.45%
JNJ	63.95	-0.49	-0.76%	-1.46%	-3.03%	-2.43%	-3.69%	3.93%	-1.13%	-7.09%
GE	40.16	-0.07	-0.17%	-1.54%	-3.46%	-2.97%	5.77%	-0.64%	13.41%	12.78%
IBM	112.81	-0.14	-0.12%	-1.73%	-4.44%	-4.16%	15.98%	-4.48%	11.19%	22.85%
T	41.00	-0.55	-1.32%	-1.94%	-1.47%	-4.27%	17.31%	1.23%	4.75%	19.43%
UTX	75.72	-0.77	-1.01%	-2.21%	-4.45%	-6.16%	20.55%	0.70%	11.29%	16.05%
HON	59.13	0.41	0.70%	-2.57%	-2.87%	-0.12%	31.11%	-2.87%	9.52%	37.93%
HPQ	51.39	-0.21	-0.41%	-2.80%	-0.43%	2.23%	23.47%	8.10%	22.74%	31.20%
HD	30.70	-0.18	-0.58%	-3.09%	-8.17%	-6.29%	-25.25%	-19.30%	-22.28%	-16.12%
XOM	91.57	-0.56	-0.61%	-3.66%	-1.18%	-1.51%	23.56%	-1.31%	14.58%	28.95%
CAT	74.67	-1.12	-1.48%	-3.85%	-6.00%	-3.61%	22.09%	-7.24%	1.97%	20.61%
INTC	25.89	-0.12	-0.46%	-4.00%	1.81%	0.50%	27.22%	5.67%	16.31%	19.03%
WMT	43.88	0.01	0.02%	-4.38%	-6.44%	0.62%	-7.72%	-8.34%	-10.10%	-13.71%
AIG	61.79	-2.05	-3.21%	-4.76%	-9.31%	-8.42%	-14.36%	-9.35%	-11.70%	-7.54%
GM	37.69	-1.00	-2.58%	-5.52%	-5.75%	3.37%	27.98%	11.74%	21.31%	8.59%
C	41.23	-0.59	-1.41%	-5.93%	-14.67%	-12.05%	-25.38%	-16.22%	-23.36%	-18.95%
MMM	86.09	-0.01	-0.01%	-9.12%	-8.76%	-7.82%	10.01%	-3.94%	11.85%	8.34%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Wrap up:

Yes, your sharing here has been terrific. It is one thing to just complain about the lack of a level playing field and quite another to help one another overcome the hurdle, and you have been doing that. I get many letters from the ‘silent majority’ expressing their happiness to be able to tune in here during the day.

We as a community hold the key to our individual success in trading capital markets. Have a great day, but hold that thought.

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