Hey Bill,

I'm looking forward to your spin on the iMac, as i've heard nothing but positive feedback from others, not just on this site. And now with OS-X Leopard coming out later this year, I am considering an Apple laptop. Anyway it seems Capital markets are getting more nervous by the day, as the Fed seems to be losing the confidence of investors worldwide, and Our distinguished Treasury Secretary makes more gratis for the sell side, it seems that something has to break this market sooner rather than later this fall. But as you have said HB&B should have enough time to exit thanks to pals like Ben & Hank.

re the 5.5% drop in the sensex:

http://tinyurl.com/34tua5

if bill hadn't pointed it out, would hardly have noticed, as yahoo finance conveniently left out the october 17 close for india:

http://tinyurl.com/3xr343

headlines, of course, squarely focused on intc/yhoo...

Great article ......

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=8634

*blech* Another chart

TSE Capped Real Estate Index (on flickr)

http://tinyurl.com/yqeqgu

Hi Bill, for screen shots, look under help in the finder or simply press command/shift + 4 simultaneously. Preview can change the PNG into a jpg.

maggy- interesting article...excepts:

[Paulson] goes on to say "We must help as many able homeowners as possible stay in their homes," Paulson said. "Foreclosures are costly and painful for homeowners." But Paulson also stated, "When investors are relieved of the cost of bad decisions, they are more likely to repeat their mistakes. I have no interest in bailing out lenders or property speculators."

..note the use of the adjective "able"...master speech writer...

prefer the following quote from the same article:

"The greatest Stock market speculator of all time Jesse Livermore stated:

"There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!"

"Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he'll soon have no job to be on."

"The game taught me the game. And it didn't spare the rod while teaching."

..if paulson really wants to connect, that's the kind of language that works...

Hmmmm....early start for everyone this AM. A new machine for our Fearless Leader, pretty cool.

Are you up watching the Q's 2nd? I figured you would be watching INTC and Yahoo to see what the QID would do. I got into a bit of INTC after earnings. We'll see what happens today, it looks like push me, pull you, with India pulling back and US tech getting a little push.

Mac Stuff & image/backup related...

http://lifehacker.com/search/mac/?refId=31
http://perso.orange.fr/pierre.g/xnview/enhome.html
http://lifehacker.com/software/online-storage/
http://www.digg.com/search?s=mac+util§ion=all&type=both&area=all&sort=most
http://lifehacker.com/software/lifehacker-top-10/top-10-mac-utilities-259649.php
http://osxdaily.com/2006/11/22/ten-os-x-command-line-utilities-you-might-not-know-about/

8. screencapture
screencapture offers a more advanced way (over command-shift-3) to take screen captures. To use it, open up your Terminal.app and try typing screencapture -iW ~/Desktop/screen.jpg. It will bring up a camera icon that is waiting to be clicked on a window. Once clicked, a file on your desktop called “screen.jpg” will be created that will contain a snapshot of whatever window you clicked on. You can of course, also take a snapshot of your entire screen by typing screencapture -S ~/Desktop/screen.jpg. If you really feel like being particular you can snag just a portion of your screen by typing screencapture -ic.

Yes, Senator Craig must be writing Paulson's speeches. "Able" bodied, "I intend to resign".

Weren't these the guys having a fit over Clinton's parsing of the English language and the meaning of "is"? Lawyers, can't live with them and you can't kill em'. What a shame.

I thought it interesting the amount of foreign capital that was pulled out of our markets. I wouldn't have known about India's market dropping so much (the Indian ETF dropped 8.5%)had Gary K not mentioned it. You can always count on Bill, Gary and other honest commentators to point out the non-headline stuff that is important. Though I have a watch list of the country ETF's, I did not look at it yesterday.

I've lately come to the conclusion it is the stuff that is not talked about that we need to worry about.

Sharkie,,,,looking at the chart of UXG,,,does it look like a head and sldrs from July - Oct, with a break of the neckline at 5.52.

If so, then doing the measurement from head to neckline, the target would be the 4 area.

The right shldr was higher than the left so maybe not as servere drop and maybe just the closing of that little gap from end of 1st week in April.

Just a thought,

Dab

CPI, Housing Starts, Indian market contraction...take your pick. What takes the market down today? And more importantly for most of the denizens of this forum - how is gold affected? I say it goes up no matter what.

On the other hand...earnings have been great: IBM, INTC, even Yahoo and now JP Morgan this AM. Nothing to pick on there...

The question is: who's zooming whom? We know Turkey is going to move on the Kurds - no conspiracy theory there!

What an exciting market.

Play of the day: AUY Jan $17.50 calls - get all you can. They'll be worth $2 bucks per before Christmas.

GL! (And I'm still watching CNBC - Boone is speaking about $100 oil at this moment...c'mon you know you're watching too!)

Leisa, you wrote, "I've lately come to the conclusion it is the stuff that is not talked about that we need to worry about."

I agree - it's always the stuff they don't talk about. And why aren't they talking about it? Because it is important. When "they" talk about something else, I figure it is, precisely, a game of misdirection, i.e., Look Here, but Don't look There. And who benefits when we don't "look there?" Anyone trying to keep holding this market up a little longer, so they can get out, while the late comers are piling in.

I have never been a fan of Easy Al Greenspan and firmly believe that he has caused the US economy irreparable damage. He retired only in January 2006, but is already doing his utmost to explain his way out of his blunders that are now a causing a financial nightmare for his successor.

Enter The Bubbleman, Scotto Petterson’s very entertaining music video about the Greenman.

Here is the link: http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/17/greenspan-please-shut-you-mouth/

Enjoy!

craig- will be looking to add to QID this am, which should open just above the 10/11 low...

Hello BOB B in response to your question yesterday in finding RSI info for UK stocks, the main one I use is iii.co.uk , using the javachart and drop down menus

UXG: That's pretty much how I see it, but be careful getting into UXG. It could just go from here, or it could fake out a lot of people and at least retest the botttom of yesterday's doji, if not more.

Info for the posters discussing this topic some days ago.no pos.

Paper & Forest Products
Oct.17/2007

Scotia Capital Research

Price Rating Risk 1-Yr ROR
A C$1.77 2-SP High $2.25 27.1%
BOW US$ 15.33 2-SP High $18.25 24.3%
CAS C$8.92 1-SO Med $13.15 49.2%
CFP C$9.45 3-SU High $9.00 -4.8%
CFX.UN C$11.81 1-SO High $14.00 39.00%
CTL C$1.59 3-SU High $ 1.50 -5.7%
CUS.UN C$4.85 2-SP High $6.20 45.8%
FPS C$4.41 3-SU High $4.00 -9.3%
IFP.A C$7.40 2-SP High $8.70 17.6%
NBD C$7.66 2-SP Med $8.00 9.7%
SFK.UN C$3.59 2-SP High $4.55 40.9%
SPF.UN C$12.80 2-SP High $14.15 22.7%
TBC C$0.51 3-SU Caution $0.45 -11.8%
TWF.UN C$15.56 2-SP Med $ 16.60 13.6%
UFS US$8.23 1-SO High $11.30 37.3%
WFT C$35.27 2-SP High $37.25 7.2%
WY US$70.64 1-SO High $77.00 12.4%

Long URZ Long IVAN

A few days ago (perhaps a week), Bill opined that it would be wise not to be the last person "off the dance floor" when the market finally turns nasty.

It would be interesting to hear this knowledgeable group estimate at what level (Dow?) that transformation is likely to occur. We already have one member who estimates Dow 15,000 before Christmas. Guesses (and, of course, they are just that), anyone???

I feel like an idiot. I got out of gold at 680. Since then it is up to 760. The trouble is, I can't make myself chase something. If there's a sharp spike down, on the other hand, I'll buy. Reading Dr. Elder last night taught me that to avoid chasing, look at stochastics. Today, the stochastic indicator suggests staying out of gold. Wait patiently for a significant dip. I'm sure we've all faced this problem of not wanting to chase something, but it can be very frustrating watching something go up and up. Any thoughts? I'm an intermediate term trader who wants to ride an up trend until it's time to get out.

Endeavour Silver's 3Q Output Up 74% From Year Ago >EXK
Last update: 10/17/2007 9:19:22 AM

EXK is up nearly 8%.

Bill--
Rather than bombard you with a bunch of Mac info, here is a link to Apple's site that offers help for switchers (sounds like a self-help group). It is: http://www.apple.com/support/switch101/.

Here is the Grand Tour by Apple: http://www.apple.com/support/mac101/tour/

I saw a very fancy chart of GSS here yesterday with a 4 year DT line drawn on it. It purported to demonstrate that the bias in GSS is up.

I think it's fairly clear now, based on spot gold and GSS price action that the tendency right here is not up, for the present.

Dennis Gartman trading rule:
"The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher."

Regarding Mac info, Apples Support section on their website is very useful, and if it is something detailed there is a lot of good help on the discussion boards (yes, one more thing to have to log on to). Also, the Help menu on Macs is very helpful. You can surprisingly find a lot of answers in there, and with some things it will even run an assistant. Also, this is only my opinion, but I would shut off automatic Software Update. Set it to check manually and do the downloads and installation when you have time.

It is, I believe, a 3 Black Crows scenario in GSS on the dailies, as of now.

Once you get used to mac, you would never, and I mean NEVER buy another pc.

aucourant, gold will make you feel stupid time and time again. If you sold at your target and made a good trade, that's the key thing. I did the same with WGDFF. I think developing discipline in my trading approach is more important than getting every bit of a particular move. If you believe in gold, a small position in a high quality miner or some actual metal will help make missing some price movement easier to bear. You will feel more relaxed knowing that, yeah, you sold a little early, but the shiny contents of your sock drawer :-) are still increasing in value.

It's hard to buy back when the chart looks so overbought, isn't it? One thing I do believe is when Sinclair says that the volatility is going to be even more crazy as we head over 1000. I keep telling myself to be patient, build a watch list and be ready. There will be a pullback. We may be over 800 when it happens, but we will see very wild swings, I think, before it's over.

Took a small position in GSX, filled below 2. Trying to figure out where my stop should be. If it keeps moving like it is now I'll set it where I got in. I need to be conservative with my capital (he says as he puts it into a tiny oil explorer...)

aucourant - If you "want to ride an up trend", then you will necessarily have to wait for the uptrend to establish itself, which means you entries will always be somewhat late and therefore of the "chasing" kind. On the other hand, your "sharp spike down = buy" approach means you are instead trying to catch falling knives (at which our friend 2nd_ave is the consummate master). Either approach can yield significant gains (or losses). Knives are sharp and can hurt you badly; so can late entries into uptrends, especially if you are reluctant to take small losses when the market reverses course, as it is bound to do at some point.

The approach Bill espouses on this site [Bill/All -- please forgive any oversimplifications and misstatements, and correct me as necessary] attempts to identify probable bottoms, wait for uptrends to manfest themselves, get long relatively early, and ride the trend until it shows evidence of petering out.

As Jesse said: "One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world."

Re new iMac: can't believe I almost forgot--don't forget to read the manual.

I meant a small position in a quality miner or metal that you _do not trade_. Sorry if my thought was incomplete.

Still waking up.

GSS aught to be a very good indicator of how smaller gold companies are faring. It peaked very hard when gold advanced against commodities and then declined when commodities started to advance against gold. Gold should gain eventually against the entire commodities, or at least hold its value better should there be a deflation.

An analysis of GSS and chart is here:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6969.htm

Very long term view.

aucourant, gold is very volatile, as you know. And in a strong up market like we have now, you know there will be as equally large downdrafts at some point. Or, is this wrong to say on a trader's site, be in it for the longer term and buy regularly?

Don Coxe's brilliant perspective... The Ghosts of Octobers Past

http://www.beearly.com/pdfFiles/BMO%20NB%20BP%20Oct%202007.pdf

Bill,

Welcome to the Dark Side.

Lurker from Creston, BC. Many years, many Macs, some good, some not so good. Currently, iMac 24", MacBook and numerous others at work. ;-/) These work well out in the "bush" with no repair depot within 5 hours.

Macintosh backup information, well worth it: http://tinyurl.com/2d6tvw

Portable hard drive, no power brick, highly rated. Get the fastest, then the largest you can afford. Mine fits in my HP Calculator sleeve. Also comes with Prosoft Engineering's Data Backup: http://tinyurl.com/nrpud

A few Mac info sites I browse that you may find informative:
http://www.macintouch.com/
http://murphymac.com/
http://www.macinstruct.com/

Although I am not one (I try to avoid if possible), I do read this blog: http://www.themaclawyer.com/

Have at least 2G of RAM, great vendor: http://tinyurl.com/2s2j6o

Open Source software: http://www.opensourcemac.org/

You will find the Mac community very supportive. If you have any questions, please ask. Hardware....software....network.

Screen capture: to select a portion and save an .png image to the desktop use "shift-command-4"; to select and then save in clipboard to paste elsewhere use "shift-option-command-4"

Doug MacKay
djmackay@gmail.com

honestly don't know what's holding the QQQQ up...was guidance from intc/yhoo that good...enough to justify jumping in now and taking them higher?

CARA100 Cisco is in deep trouble in Brazil caught in a huge tax evasion scheme. Brazilian federal police alleged that the U.S. company evaded 1.5 billion reais ($824 million) in duties. 40 high-ranked CISCO employees have been arrested, including the company President, in an operation involving 650 police officers. Five CISCO executives are being sought in the US. The scheme benefited CISCO and MUDE. http://tinyurl.com/2rd7hf

2nd,

After last night's "great earnings" from the tech sector, I was expecting QID to get hammered much worse than this. If this is the best "they" can do, we'll be fine.

Good luck.

Market seems to be loosing steam.
DUG looking good after the weekly oil inventory report.
Adding to QID here.

How will the news of Japan, and China dumping US treasuries effect the USD? and Gold? How will it effect their currencies?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajwLB6nNkeV8

thanks for post Don Coxe's report,

one of the best aruond!!!!

2nd,
Watch for Intel to trade below 26.50. That will be the mover for QID to move higher. That price was the low on the opening 15 minutes and Guy Adami stated to buy Intel above 26.50 last night.

The HUI broke through some uptrend support this a.m. I'm looking forward to some miners coming back to me on a continuation of this pullback.

While it's been my habit in the past to be too early on my buys, I was caught flatfooted on the last run. Let's see if history repeats.

Congrats to anyone who bought UXG on yesterday's "kangaroo" tail.

2nd_ave -

QQQQ won't break until AAPL or GOOG (or both) succumbs to momentum exhaustion. INTC's report renews hopes for the long-awaited, massive "Y2K echo" cycle in the PC segment (with a secular shift to computing portability (higher margin). Thus another boost to AAPL.

As for the "not-as-dreadful" earnings report from YHOO, the top line beat is likely great news in store for the category stud, GOOG.

My take, INTC is back on top and executing well (as one should expect from a dominant leader). But: is the 60% margin level the Street hopes to see INTC reach again sustainable? I can't see it given the extreme cyclicality exhibited in the chip business over the past few years.

YHOO. Unless you're a ST trader, who cares? I wait to hear/understand which niche they really, really want to excel in alongside the other internet behemoths (GOOG, EBAY, AMZN) before paying too much attention for investing.

JML

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) is being brutalized, again. These guys are into high end mortgages with no exposure to subprime and admit to being in big trouble. They have suspended their dividend.

Expect more of the same from many lenders who haven't been as forthcoming.

I'm looking for SKF to eventually reach par and beyond.

Hey Mike...GSX looking pretty good eh?

MikeNYC
oil & gas list

Mentioned UTS-T Oct11/07.(long @5.58),up 3% again today.

miners list;
BWR-T Breakwater Res......zinc miner.Trades in US as BWLRF.low volumes in US ,but massive volumes in Canada.Waiting for a turnaround to re-enter.

As to IVAN :I do have a small position in that "Kennel Dweller".
Check link below for insider buying

http://tinyurl.com/2duzvj

Shark, yes, it's looking pretty good. That little pump must be spinning like a top out there in the middle of nowhere! :-)

The little jump here has me above my commision costs. I'm thinking if it's up another penny or two, I set my stop at the point it breaks even for me, if I do get stopped out (I'm a small position guy.)

Do you think it makes sense to set the stop at breakeven and then not sweat it if it gets hit?

At this point in my trading career, preservation of capital are my #1, #2, and #3 priorities, even as I trade slightly risky small resource stocks.

Don't look now but the ABX indexes are cratering again, even the AA rated ones (approaching August lows). BBB is hitting new lows. Genesis has charts on his blog:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/10/boom-boom-tuesday.html

I wish Noodle were around to give us his take on the credit markets.

Yes, me too. What happened to Noodle? Maybe he's too busy down in the basement with a bucket, bailing out the credit markets.

LXES, up 24%, top of my 'small oils' watch list today.

I like the fundamental prospects for the oil service sector, here in the world of peak oil. I'm going to run a screen for small oil servicers and build a seperate watch list dedicated to US-tradeable oil servicers.

89 a freakin barrel.

1780 wooden nickels/barrel, I mean.

Guess that Bloomberg story on how everything is A-OK in Kurdistan didn't have it's desired effect. Nor the stockpile news.

aucourant - well said !

Vorlon - thnx for Coxe report.

The blog is COOKING today. down with polemics, up with info!

They should demand payment in nickel coins instead ;)

BMK up another 43% today. That makes over 200% in the last 3 days or so.

Here, once again I am flogging GBN.V.

I think this company needs a little more market attention, since it has been over a year that I have held onto it.

The big news is that news is coming. It appears they have new geological aspects to their Bingo gold deposit. I believe that news will co-incide with the Cambridge House Convention Oct. 20-21.

There has been a major delay in obtaining assays, and the company has not been timely in their drill results. The assay lab reports an eight week delay in obtaining metallic screens for nuggety gold due to overwhelming demand at the lab.

This company is set up like an option play in the junior mining sector. Should the share price rise above 90¢ for 15 consecutive trading days, then all of the warrants issued must be cashed, giving the company an additional $10m. With the cash they have put away so far, the total take would entitle the company to engage in production in the near term. This would probably preclude any need for further financing into production. Entering into production with this company is estimated to be around $20m.

Their Birch Crossing deposit must also be considered, amongst many other gold showings. The technical reports on this companies' projects are uniquely pessimistic, throwing out some of the best drill results over the years, favouring the lowest grades. But they still contain historical information useful for comparison with the PEA.

The company has had to restate in news releases that reserve estimates have left out the highest grade results, so estimates may be a tad on the conservative side, due to nuggety gold. Nuggety gold has been a long standing problem obtaining drill results and core assays. This would imply that bulk sampling is necessary.

The PEA should be taken into account as well. A positive economic analysis was released this year and should serve as a guide to a very conservative estimate of costs.

The float for such a company is very high, due to consolidation of the district. Almost the entire region north of LaRonge was consolidated except for 3 small players, Masuparia, Wescan Goldfields, and Norsask(private).

Insider buying has been a longstanding item over the last two years. They have also assembled a mining team in anticipation of going into production.

A recent negative has been the sale of some 7m. shares by a large private shareholder. It has occurred in the past that shareholders sold out of frustration only to have the share price appreciate significantly.

DO NOT RUN LIKE MAD INTO THIS STOCK. Buy piecemeal. News should be out forthwith, and along with it some share appreciation.

http://www.goldenbandresources.com

http://beta.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/SymbolList.aspx?s=GBN&t=list

Silly me! I sold BMK a few days ago at 32 cents and held FWR. Made a decent profit but, I'm green with envy of those still in BMK.

Cara 100 TM at new 52 week low.

Anybody have an opinion on SNDK going into earnings tomorrow?

http://tinyurl.com/yod65x

Tech Sector's Intel Speeding Ahead
Guy Adami Oct 17, 2007 12:30 pm

Mike,

I'd probably give it a little more rope than that. I see this a classic position trade which could last for weeks. I see the potential end of the long downtrend and the beginning of a nice upmove. possibly. I would do this with small size. My stop would be around 1.87 but that's just me. I will personally look to buy a little today as bad/good as it gets.

QID now green!

SKF up over 2%

Good move, 2nd.

Hello Bill and the Cara Community.
I am rewarded daily by this blog and the contributors. Thanks to all who post. Bill, I envy you your Mac. I hope you find it as good as I think you will...he says typing on a pc with problems growing daily. I have some thoughts/questions I would enjoy seeing discussion of.
Is Cisco the "other shoe" or is Turkey?
If the market reacts tomorrow to the news on oil and all the other bad news out there, (and friends I do not see a lot of good news) how far will gold and the miners fall with the broader market before it uncouples and goes up again?
Should I worry about the safety of my money market fund at HB&B?
Thanks in advance
Peace
Gray

i hate the XGD!!!!
canadian gold miners have been killing me
the last week,

gold shoots up they make a small gain,
gold moves down a few dollars they dump,
gold at $756 and its sitting where it was last week when gold was lower.

im concerned that with a correction in the gold price the miners will get hit very badly, and may be worsened in a general equity slide happens,

any thoughts on this, please tell me im delusional!!!

Thanks shark. I have a cash account and can't be zipping in and out on unsettled funds and risk being labelled a daytrader by my broker. So a small position swing trade is exactly what I'm looking for.

Doing a little TA on that number you mentioned. Barchart.com Projection Calendar shows 1.89 to be the 38.2 retracement of the four week high. There also seems to be some recent resistance at about that point.

Barchart really has an excellent set of free tools, BTW, for anybody looking for that sort of thing. I don't have an expensive trading platform/data feed, so I need to feel my way with the best of the free resources. And my brain.

The newsletter section of iitm.com has lots and lots of articles on free Internet trading tools, also.

=====================================

Marketwatch headlines "Crude Explosion: 89.barrel"

with a headline analyst saying 120 is possible in 07.

The hype machines are spinning hard in both directions. It never stops, does it?

Renewed rumblings/rumors that KRY might finally be getting its permit within the next couple of weeks. Anyone think it's for real this time?

Mike,

You can download and fill out a margin agreement even if you don't have enuff $ in your account to qualify for margin money. This is helpful because it removes the settled funds restriction, and allows 3 daytrades ever 5 day period. This allows for fairly unrestricted position trading while facilitating a couple of daytrades per week.

Bill,

The RSI - 7 has crossed below 70 on the daily chart for the NDX, and MACD is showing a sell signal.

I guess the time has come to sell...

Bill,
Maybe that rule of Gartman's holds true in the futures markets, since that is his arena of expertise. I don't know. I notice that others like Charles Kirk and Gary B. Smith seem to follow this type of momentum trading. Would a cup with a handle formation followed heavily by Alan Farley be another form of this type of trading? You are light years ahead of me, and what works for you is the "Cara Method".

"The hype machines are spinning hard in both directions. It never stops, does it?"

Hi Mike,

No. It never stops. The only information I pay attention to comes from Bill and the posters in here.

This morning on "BubbleVision", Herb Greenberg suggested that investors should walk around their neighborhood to see what's really happening.

He spoke of foreclosure signs and such and he lives in a NICE neighborhood.

Here in the PA Dutch Country, it is said that we have our own economy. I don't like what I see here. The shelves are actually stocked at the local WalMart which has fewer customers than usual. My own business is slow.

Other than a few bond and income funds, I'm in cash and Ultra Shorts.

Best of luck to you.

You do not trade the markets.
You can only trade your beliefs about the markets... ~ Van K. Tharp ~

What does it mean to say we only trade our beliefs about the markets?
Let’s look at some examples and see what you believe about them:
The market is a dangerous place to invest. (You are right.)
The market is a safe place to invest. (You are right.)
Wall Street controls the markets and it’s hard for the little guy. (You are right.)
You can easily make money in the markets. (You are right.)
It’s hard to make money in the markets. (You are right.)
You need to have lots of information before you can trade profitably. (You are right.)

Is AEZ on anybody's radar?

Leisa, what are you up to today?

Bill,
I thought that I should finish the trading rule of Gartman's with the thought that he wrote after the trading rule:
" The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and sell higher. We can never know what price is "low". Nor can we know what price is "high". Always remember that Nortel fell from $85/share to $2 and seemed "cheap" all times along the way."

Strange brew I see - collapse in bond yields and at the same time parabolic move in China. What the hell is going on ?

Magnolia,
You might want to go over to agoracom.com to get what appears to be the most recent information from knowledgeable posters, without bashers, on KRY's possible permit issuance on Sunday by Chavez.

stktrader - "cup with handle" is an accumulation pattern, usually in the timeframe of 4-6 weeks or 4-6 months. The buy point is the handle, hoping for a breakout afterward. Tends to work in things that get accumulated (by institutions) - mid-to-large cap stocks.

ERPguy,
I thought that the real breakout point was when the stock breaks out above the right edge of the cup. The handle forms because of traders attempting to get out at a point that they got in on the lip of the left side of the cup. It is caused because traders are trying to breakeven or for a small loss in the handle. Once they are sold out, then the stock can resume its move higher. Once it hits the right cup edge and trades above it, Investor's Business Daily states that that is the time to buy on that breakout. Isn't that a momentum move? Buying high to sell higher in that time frame.

Magnolia -

If KRY gets their permit, will the stock behave as GRZ has?

The day GRZ got their permit (for a mine in VZ said to contain 10M oz) the stock jumped 50%.

Now it's worked its way DOWN to being up only 8% from the price on the day BEFORE they got the permit.

I'm more intrigued by RML.V, Rusoro, majority owned by Russians and touted as "THE consolidator" for VZ gold properties.

Maybe THEY can please Hugo !

Anybody know anything about RML.V?

Leisa, and others who know accounting/finance:

This bank "superfund" (great name!) or MLEC - are mere accounting manoeuvers at its core?

Otherwise, how does mutual trading of worthless toxic securities do any of the banks any good?

Thnx in advance.

So...the story that Buffet was unloading, that was in order to lower the price and let someone else buy in? Is that what you mean, Bill?

Can someone with Level 2 see what's going on with GSX? Is someone unloading a ton at 2.05 or something? It seems to want to go up, but it's bouncing and bouncing off that point, 7 or 8 times today.

The suspicious side of me now wonders if the recent pop was engineered for distribution of some shares.

Jock, I'm not sure how this thing is to work. There has to be a value proposition. I would imagine that the superfund is buying the securities at a discount and the selling financial institution will take a loss on the sale. The value proposition would come from managing the (1) interest rate exposure; (2) credit risk exposure with the expectation that the two combined or in some weighting will yield a profit for investors. I don't have a background in sophisticated financing, but I imagine I covered the highlights.

BillHunter- lightening up on the QID opened this am, and also the DUG...but planning to press both positions if Asia continues to drop tonight...

PTR -

Bill, I take no small amount of CONSOLATION out of Buffet's selling 50% too soon !

HMIN is also up about 10% (hotels, China, olympics. FXI is up 6%.

If you were thinking about VAL but never got in, you can load up and fill the truck at .325 today.

FXI- here's a real BOS trade: shorted at 214 (but keeping position size extremely small)-just couldn't resist ;)

Excitement about PTR was related to possible IPO in Shanghai stock market. It seems when similar price movement always happens when a red chip company in HK debuts in China. LFC was one good example.

Buffet is a great long-term investor, but he also said he never knew when to sell, which is why he tried to hold forever. If you want an example, look no further than KO.

Now, PTR probably is overvalued by Buffet's standard, but it could also go a lot higher, since Chinese stocks are doing similar things as internet stocks in 2000.

Leisa -

Thanks. But, the securities to be sold into the "superfund" seem to contain lots of different types of toxic waste, which nobody can unravel and value.

How can the market define an interest rate or a credit risk if "it" is an unknowable, toxic mishmash?

(Or is there a way analytically to "unwind" the contents, as Interpol did with that pedophile's face?)

If not, then I don't see how any sane, independent buyer would ever step up. Might be rather hard to explain to an investment committee.

Bill -

Condolences! - the Mac WILL turn out easier to use. Maybe if you just "play with it" (rather than try to do work on it) things won't be so frustrating.

Magnolia, If you haven't heard or read the transcript of this interview last week, it's what the buzz is about:

http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=76309

Bill--I left a link earlier that will point you to the portion of the Apple site that deals with switchers and particularly their migration issues. Well, here it is again: http://www.apple.com/support/switch101/
Getting up and running with passwords, address, mail etc. can be daunting at first.

Records Show U.S. Gold is Mobilized to Suppress Gold Price, GATA Says

http://tinyurl.com/26on7j

BUstudent, I used to live on Buswell St in my undergrad days. My best girlfriend lived down the block at 509 Park Dr., in student apartments. Oh, to be back in college! If I could go back, I wouldn't even mind putting up with John Silber again...

Mike,

Another excellent Bill Cara collaboration!

You mentioned GSX, you bought GSX, I bought GSX, GSX went up. Muy bien hombre.....

Jock -

What if this MLEC rumor was just a trial balloon floated to gauge the feasibility of an industry-wide dumping vehicle aimed at collecting whatever the market cannot value, banks cannot afford to mark-to-market, and nobody wants to trade.

Step #1: get Wall Street onboard to design an "ideal" vehicle.
Step #2: leak reports that, despite best efforts from said banks, MLEC cannot be sustained by these banks alone and it seems unable to raise sufficient support from outside participants.
Step #3: Warn of dire systemic risks to Washington pols into frenzy. No bailout needed; just some (how implicit? wink-wink) public guarantee to secure quasi-public money.
Step #4: HB&Bs make out like crazies on structuring and financing fees, sort out wheat from chaff away from scrutiny and recycle best performing assets back onto their books leaving MLEC with the real garbage.

JML

Right back at you Shark. Your words of encouragement (and oil over 87) got me to take action this morning. I hope you got a good fill on one of those drops today.

BTW, I found some free level ii quotes. It's hypnotic watching that stuff.

Sorry about the IVAN. It seems to have perked up here at the end of the day a bit. 90/barrel will float a lot of little oily boats.

2nd,
QID's back where it was yesterday. Another .50 to the low.

Very nice close for UXG, rocketing from the 4.60s to 4.90 in a matter of minutes. Should make a nice set up for tomorrow morning.....

Jock writes: "But, the securities to be sold into the "superfund" seem to contain lots of different types of toxic waste, which nobody can unravel and value." Where there is uncertainty there is opportunity. Fear and greed will be the ultimate arbiter of a price and I'm quite sure that "they" have the best minds and they will unravel "it" in a way that makes them enormously well compensated.

BillySundance ..

I hope you are right about UXG.... I tried catching the proverbial "falling knife" in regards to this stock on the way down. Ended up with "mega shares".... so if climbs back into the 6xx range then my wounds were worth it. If not......then

Oooooooooo the humanity...I'm toast!

[As you guys can expect from a rookie investor....I'm learning my lessons the hard away] :-)

ALOHA !!

The first known geopolitical analyst has come out this month to validate what I believe will happen in China with regard to foreign corporations. I have been saying that China will "get even" with the USA and other Westerners for their "fiat con job" by nationalizing foreign factories. The USA would not allow China to buy Unocal, so what good are US Dollars? I have posted up charts in the past showing how little actual Chinese grassroots factories account for China's exports. Only ten percent of 100% Chinese manufacturers account for total Chinese exports. That makes me suspicious ...

RICHARD MAYBURY'S ESSENTIAL POINTS
- China has been occupied by foreigners for many hundreds of years. The Chinese never forget ... the wounds are still fresh. As late as 1897 the following foreigners had occupied China ... BRITAIN, FRANCE, GERMANY, RUSSIA and JAPAN along with some incursions by the US military to assist in putting down rebellions.

- Brutal Communist regime is still in power even though they no longer wear Mao's uniform. Past Chinese rulers, primarily Confucian, have been some of the most brutal on Earth.

-Prelude to confiscation is a major Chinese military build-up in order to deter any retribution by Western governments. China's fleet of Kilo Class attack submarines now totals 60. The USA has 72. These types of subs are not long range but are designed to protect Chinese waters from invaders or to cripple Asian shipping lanes(Taiwan).

- Due to the "One Baby" policy in China many female babies were killed or abandoned. Now China can raise a huge army with some 24million males aged 18 to 26.

Maybury believes the Chinese will begin confiscating foreign factories operating within China's borders after the 2008 Olympics. He advises investors to get out of corporations that operate in China. Maybury does not say that the Chinese link to nationalizing foreign corporations is tied to the floudering US Dollar, but I do. The further South the US Dollar goes the angrier the Chinese government and Asians will get especially once the US government plays holier than thou with "tuff talk and tariffs" as well as restricting foreign investment in the USA due to "national security" issues! How would you feel if you got a worthless "paper IOU"(Bill, I would say "wooden nickle" but then a wooden nickle is worth a lot more than a piece of paper that says "I-O-U")for you blood, sweat and tears ... hard work?

Guess what? Russia has the same plan ... I do not invest in Chinese and Russian companies ... period! That has been my policy many years now.

Please note that Bush and the US Congress has been pissing off the Chinese a lot lately. The latest was the Bush visit to the Dali Lama. Also Bush wants more "transparency" with the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Funds(SWF). As if the US investment banks are models of "tranparency"! I have also been hearing bad vibes about how polluted the air is where the Olympic venues are. Bad press here and there ... Losing honor, being shamed, embarrassed ... that's all daily stuff for the US government and Hollywood celebrities and tabloids and media. Not so for TOP Chinese government officials who value control over billions of "subjects" ... Its cultural ...

I have the same belief that a major China shift will occur after the 2008 Olympics.

FYI ...

craig- copy that...sorry didn't sell all of it earlier...

Isaiah,

You are obviously not the only one here that got cut by the UXG knife. I also entered way too early and have averaged down, now at an average of $5.44. While I am still cautious, the story here hasn't changed.

As for today's close, I do not claim evidence of an iminent long-term recovery. Rather, a swift close to the upside in closing minutes often lead to a squeeze at the next day opening.

We'll see........

B

Treasury yields got killed today. Additionally, I heard through minyanville that spreads on edbt of companies like Countrywide and WaMu widened by 50 basis points in an hour today! Seems like risk is being repriced yet again.

LXES finished up 50%. Hmmm.

It's not my original thought, but oil services in a day and age when every well that might be squeezed for a few more barrels is being reworked...sounds like a strategy.

Am I being simplistic? Moronic? Is the easy money over in that segment? I'll be investigating and finding a list of small oil service companies.

Isiah - simple. Do not try to pick bottoms. I'm reading Elder (again.) He regards capturing 30% of a move in a price channel as an 'A' trade. If you miss part of the move, so what? There's always more trades.

Maybe find a company that often lags the UXG moves. If you miss a pop in UXG you have a correlated stock to look at for the next move.

Of course, it's easy for me to say. It's not my trade. But I beat myself up for selling WGDFF before it peaked. That was stupid. You can't get every cent out of a move. I bought it after it started moving, held it to my target and took my profits. I ought to be happy. And today it closed back below my exit, so I can buy it again cheaper than I sold it, if I want.

But hey, a lot of guys here bottom fish who know and trade more than me, so maybe I'm wrong. But Van Tharp, Elder, etc. all emphasize making a trade on a good setup, taking profits at your target and move on. And never chase it down.

Good luck!

On a whim, I called an analyst yesterday from a Canadian firm which covers KRY. He said that he did think the permit was coming (though not necessarily in the next week or two--which is what the latest buzz has been about) and he also said that Rusaro would eventually buy KRY after the permit was issued, stating that the Russian connection with Chavez would make them the ultimate purchaser. Interestingly, he said he didn't think the permit would cause a big pps spike (he guesstimated 25%) since few buyers would line up to do business in VZ (citing Goldfield's recent modest sale to Rusaro). I do think the permit, if it comes, would be worth up to a double in the short run, but would appreciate any thoughts anyone has, including those of Bill, who am I correct in remembering may have speculated some time ago that the Russians or Chinese might be ultimate purchasers of KRY

New headline on WSJ:

"The SEC has opened an informal investigation into stock sales by Countrywide Financial's CEO. Full article coming soon."

Mozilo - you got some 'splainin to do......

Magnolia,
I own an unhealthy amount of KRY. I don't believe that the "Canadian analyst" knows bupkis about what is going to happen if/when KRY gets its permit. I prefer to believe that nobody knows anything more than me or you do regarding KRY's permit and subsequent sale. KRY might be the only fairplay in the market available to us little grunts.

Mike,

I like IVAN the same way I like GSX, there's nothing to be sorry about. Tell me how to get to the free level II quotes.

MikeNYC,
It's a small world. I have a couple friends who live in 509 Park Dr. Awesome area. What's the deal with John Silber? My professors all kiss his tail, but I also heard he was hard ass.

Hello,

Anyone know of a hypnosis cd type of thing for "SELF SABOTAGE" RE: trading ??

I am overloaded with learned lessons. Can't LEARN anymore........ Sold DUG this am @37.41, then it moved up, I swear just after my sale.

TIA

PS: my genie is inefficient at best. I think I will stick with Gold stocks and try to leave the dance floor before the music ends.

Since the Polyrus Gold rumor to takeover Crystallex in March '07 and recent talk about Rusoro as a possiblilty, I've thought a Russian buyout would surely please Chavez and make for smoother sailing. One can only hope....

Bill, your 6:27 pm post,....LOL.

ALOHA !!

Fred ... I guarantee you that KRY management and friends will know well before you and 99% of us "bloggers" and Chavez and his cronies will know before KRY management. Perhaps you should keep an eye on "insider" activity.

I own no KRY shares.

Hi Bill,

If you don't mind typing the filename each time, just the full Grab application. (Finder > Applications > Utilies). Once you've got the shot in its own window, click File > Save As on the menu bar at the top of the screen. Note that the menu bar with the apple on it changes depending on the active window underneath.

If you want one of the screenshot utilities that allows you to set default file paths and file prefixes, etc., then I could recommend InstantShot. It's free and works well for me.

http://tinyurl.com/ysg97n

There are three or four other freeware screenshot programs that offer this level or more of customization.

Best of luck to you.

On July 13 an amazingly brilliant analyst said this, right here at this site:

"KRY - do you guys playing this one ever get the feeling like you are being jerked around a bit? VZ can shut down a massive communications group in a day, but the permit is a "yes, no , maybe, not so fast, etc.," process dragging on for months? I suspect VZ/Chavez could sell this mine tomorrow with one phone call to Madam Wu and be very happy about it on many levels. Feels like a dice roll to me - not that that's bad, but I still think it feels like gambling."

Nailed it!

Kaimu and MikeNYC,
A roll of the dice is better than KRY. With dice you know if you win or lose immediately and you know the odds. Buying KRY is more like buying a lottery ticket without a specified draw date. Also, the odds and the prize are unknown. Yet, I bought a bunch of tickets...?

Kaimu,
I've got a significant bet on CNU also. So far, I'm enjoying the ride with KRY better.

Shark_attack,
I found this site:

www.level2quotes.com

Someone with real level 2 should look at it and tell us how similar these are to it. I don't know the universe of stocks they offer. I just typed in GSX and there it was. Looks like they offer level2 and pay for their feed with Google ads. Click on a few ads while you are there.

BUStudent, 'hard ass' is a compliment to that guy, and only the start. John Silber is (was?) a brilliant Kant scholar who took over BU when it was basically a commuter school. Think Bunker Hill CC, but in a worse neighborhood. He definitely had a chip on his shoulder, some think from growing up with one arm. He brought it from nothing to a legitimate world class institution, with zero endowment to work with. He was among the first to realize what a cash cow foreign students were (no financial aid for them, they paid full fare) so the euro/middle-eastern contingent was very high when I was there. He also raised tuition to the second highest in the country (2nd to Middlebury College) With that money he turned BU into what it is now. He began to bring in serious researchers and grant money, built the School of Religion into a world class school, some say to the point of challenging Harvard Divinity, got Elie Weisel, built a great communications school, and on and on.

At the time, Kenmore Square was a VERY dangerous area (I'm sure it's hard for you to believe.) He cleaned up/stomped the life out of, a sketchy but quite fun part of town and made it safe for yuppies and clueless midwestern college students. (Oh, how I miss The Rat! My god what fun drunken times I had in that smelly basement.) Believe it or now, Audubon Circle, where Park and Beacon cross, was an unsafe area, as well. BU changed that.

But it was not all roses. Pugnacious only begins to tell the story and he made some serious enemies along the way, stomped on some people. But a brilliant mind backed up by serious, serious 'attitude' and unwavering conviction is a hard thing to fight.

I could go on and on with more stories, but I grudgingly say this: as disagreeable as he could be, as much as, at the time, I hated some of the things he said and did and the people he hurt (look up what happened to the BU Nursing School, and why) I almost have to put him in the category of 'great men' for the way he, through sheer force of will and brilliance, singlehandedly made BU what it is, from absolutely nothing.

I haven't thought about him in years and I can't really can't believe I'm saying that. How we hated him!

PS I hope everyone knows the 'brilliant' part of my last post, where I was quoting myself from July, was definitely self-deprecating, tongue in cheek. Sometimes that gets lost when text is all you have to convey a little humour. I'm as big an idiot as the next guy.

Regards, all. I'm off to do some research for tomorrows open.

Fred,
I agree. But I think at the time I was observing a lot of angst over KRY from people trying to trade it, and it seemed like a lot of stress over something that could go up in smoke at Chavez's whim.

Also, at least one regular poster expressed that he had a serious stake, serious enough that he was upset at some joking comments someone made about KRY.

By all means, grab some on a dip and toss it in the drawer. You might win big. But to take a stake that could hurt you if it all goes away tomorrow? Hey, each person does what he thinks best, and I've been wrong so, so many times. But to stake so much on a lottery pick...I dunno.

You know?

From the .........
Telegraph.Co.UK

Japan and China lead flight from the dollar

http://tinyurl.com/36s7bq

MikeNYC,
I think that the acid test is to be honest with yourself and know what you own and why. I own some lottery tickets, some stocks that I've had for more than ten years, some swing traders, some risk/reward picks and some new value plays. I rarely have momentum plays. Mostly, I like to bottom-fish and sell at a planned exit. At any given time many of my holdings are underwater because I buy too early and sell too early. I'm working on correcting that and I think that Bill's lessons are helping me. My bottomline however is that I have been successful over time.

"At any given time many of my holdings are underwater because I buy too early and sell too early."

Fred .......and to think ...I thought I was the only one who did that. Hope Bill goes back over those lessons. I could really use them.

QID- added back AH everything i sold at 3pm and then some...still not seeing any reason to be buying technology...despite the "no recession" talk (or maybe because of it) we surely have a few bad quarters ahead...not betting on people (or businesses) strapped for cash on the back of higher energy/food/housing costs rushing out to buy PCs in Q4...

I have a couple of interesting charts, especially comparing the FXI to the NDX bubble peak...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/10/south-and-north-same-day.html

Bill,

For converting screen captures to named files on a Mac I use a freeware utility SnapNDrag, which is similar in function to Gadwin on Windows.

It can be downloaded from http://www.yellowmug.com/snapndrag/

The free version is quite capable, but for even more powerful functionality a"Pro" version is available for a modest fee.

You have been inundated with advice from the Mac sector; allow me to add a favorite source for opinions, reviews, hints, etc. An online "e-zine" , ATPM (About This Particular Macintosh). Also free at http://www.atpm.com/

Welcome to Mac-world!

The Bahamas in private
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 15/10/2007

Got £33,000 to spend? Then heaven awaits you and 11 friends on Little Whale Cay, says Anna Murphy.

http://tinyurl.com/3dhj3q

Sir Christopher Ondaatje: 'I have always identified with predators'
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 17/10/2007
Adventurer, author and businessman Sir Christopher Ondaatje tells Elizabeth Grice why he feels compelled to warn the world of imminent economic meltdown

http://tinyurl.com/2lxhx9

"I will be looking for my own next year, so I can invite the Cara Community to enjoy the time of their lives. Truly.

Dear Bill,

I believe you. Truly.

Thank you for upholding my belief in, "human kindness overflowing".

Light and Love to all who are guided here!!!

Hang Seng- opens above 30,000...trading range within the first 30 minutes 29,469 to 30,025...trading range within the past month 20,000 to 30,000...

Bill,

The program called Parallels for the Mac lets you run all Windows programs. It is definitely worth it - works like a charm. You have the best of both worlds, Windows just runs in a window itself.

Hang Seng- walked away for 5 minutes, and now it's in the red? That's a 750 point range in 30 minutes...

Is the gain in whatever it is the Mac is supposed to give you worth A)throwing away your investment and knowledge of what you already learned and B) the hassle and frustration of learning a whole new OS?

It's really not as 'easy' as they want you to think. There is a whole new ecosystem, with all it's idiosyncrasies, lingo, limitations, benefits, etc. It's not like "Pick up a mac and make movies in five minutes." It's just not. It is, if you have the experience behind you, sure. Bill, I totally expected you to go through this.

I've held my tongue because nothing is more silly than OS wars, and so many Linux and Mac users feel this overweening need to proselytize on and on, and, if that fails, to try make someone who doesn't see it their way feel like an idiot. It's insufferable. Just watch the reaction to this post.

mac users talk about freedom and creativity, think different, etc., etc. AS LONG AS YOU WORK ON THE MACHINE THEY THINK YOU SHOULD USE, AND THE OS THEY THINK YOU SHOULD USE. Huh?

Personally, I just don't care. I used to care about stuff like that. Now I just want to get my damn stuff done.

I'll secure and backup and configure whatever OS my users want. All three OSes are mature enough to do that with. All three can be used to do almost whatever it you want to do. I just don't care as long as the work gets done and safely.

(BTW, that message that popped up and infected you may have used Windows Messaging service. If so, part of securing Windows is turning off services that aren't needed.)

Bill, you told me once to leverage what I know. Is there a chance that applies here?

Something just changed.

And now changed back. That was weird. For a minute the fonts changed and these blue boxes appeared.

2nd_ave,

is this what you're watching or another site ?? TIA

http://tinyurl.com/2fnrex

Bill,

I know all too well the frustrations and enervating drain of time and energy involved in switching operating systems. I started fooling around with Digital Equipment VAX back in the early 70's, then went through each phase of personal computers--the original Apple II, Commodore 64, and IBM PC and the original (classic) Macintosh.

It is a fact that Windows dominates the corporate world (except for graphics/media divisions which tend to run Macs). As "chas" points out in a 10:47 PM posting, you can run a full MS Windows emulation on the Mac and have both worlds available.

As for copying and pasting, those keyboard functions are still available. But on the Mac keyboard you use Command-C to copy and Command-V to paste (instead of MS Windows' Control-C and Control-V). Here's a link to a list of Mac keyboard shortcut commands: http://tinyurl.com/ge3eg

It will take a while to make the transition, but I found leaving MS Windows to be a lot like quitting smoking. Frustrating and enraging for the first few days, then gradually you realize how much better you are feeling, that life is wonderful and things seem to be going a whole lot better!

May your path be graced by good fortune . . . .