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October 11, 2007
Cara’s Thursday Report, Oct. 11, 2007, 9:18 AM
Market Chat
Gold and the goldminers are back in focus today because the USD is breaking down. There will be a time soon, when the Euro breaks down too. Inflation is a problem there too.
News Bulletin: Gold appreciates against all depreciating currencies. All currencies depreciate; it’s just a matter of degree.
All through yesterday's session, there was a soft tone that resulted from an initiated strike action by the United Auto Workers union against Chrysler as well as unexpected news that Boeing would have a 6-month delay of deliveries for its 787 Dreamliner. The first situation was quickly remedied, but since Boeing announced all systems go just a month ago, that situation seems more serious. The deferred value of these contracts, not only for Boeing, but for customers and vendors and their customers and vendors, will have a significant economic impact.
The DJIA (-86) and S&P 500 (-2.7) actually recovered from worse morning losses. The tech heavy Nasdaq gained +7.7.
The Fed injected $16 billion into the financial system Wednesday in net changes of overnight repurchase agreements.
Mortgage applications increased (a seasonally adjusted) +2.4 pct last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
US wholesalers' inventories lifted by +0.1 pct to $399.02 billion in August, which indicates that sellers are not prepared to increase inventories to meet anticipated sales growth.
Despite forecasting 3Q profit will be burdened by lower refining margins, Chevron (CVX) and Valero (VLO) lifted with the whole Energy sector (XLE) that led the broad market higher in the afternoon.
On the deal front, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) will acquire the rights to a skin cancer drug developed by US biotech company Synta Pharmaceuticals (SNTA) for ~$1.1 billion.
Costco Wholesale (COST) reported 4Q net income rose +4 pct to $372.4 million vs. $355.6 million a year earlier. The stock was on fire all day, probably as much by short covering as any other factor.
After the bell close, Alcoa (AA) reported a +3.4 pct increase in net income, aided by growing aluminum demand in China.
In the morning, Crude Oil futures dropped below the $80/bbl level, but later rallied above $81/bbl. This morning it's up over 82.
US Treasury yields pulled back during the day before settling flat. The $USD was a little stronger against the Yen, which is more a reflection of the Yen’s weakness as Bank of Japan today failed to raise rates.
This morning, precious metals have strengthened and the $USD gotten weaker, now almost with a 77 handle.
International Economics Review
This morning, the US import/export prices data and the international trade figures are reported. Tomorrow, it will be the Producer Price Inflation report and the retail sales and business inventory data that will be of interest to economists.
The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Wednesday session Cara 100 gainers.
Here are Cara 100 losers from Wednesday.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Wednesday session. The New Highs list is growing. Watch the Distribution Zone for Sell Alerts as otherwise strong stocks fall below 70 on the Daily and Weekly RSI-7.
Successful traders sell into strength (and buy into weakness), like any businessperson would do.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes.
Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website is updated later in the morning.
I am appreciative to the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc for providing the Cara 100 summaries.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that traded Wednesday with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values:
“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
If there is an implication that Nasdaq contains small cap stocks and that the small cap stocks are in rally mode, forget it. The Nasdaq index is comprised of large caps. The small cap indexes in the market have been getting killed. What is happening today to equities is HB&B driven (with the aid of central banks who wish to reflate to give these banks the time they need to save their skin from the mortgage lending and asset backed securitization fiasco). HB&B does not have time for penny and small cap stocks. So it’s the big names that are being moved around, like Costco, COST on Nasdaq, up almost +10 pct on a single day, a day btw that most of Costco’s higher earnings are linked to income taxes. But, HB&B isn’t going to publicize that when they are out to save their skin (sorry, protect their capital).
International Equity Markets Review
Asia-Pacific
The indexes across Asia-Pacific equity markets continued in the green today, with new record highs. Greater Fool Theory at work. But, hey, if you know how to trade, don’t knock it.
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
The Nikkei Dow rocketed up in mid session today to 17459. Isn’t that a picture of the goose giving it to the gander!
The N225 was well over 18000 in July, and the present level is rapidly approaching that, which I find amazing because the currency is falling due to economic ills. Same thing in the US, which is why we go for the gold. Unlike Marion Jones, we won’t have to return it if we pay for it with something other than steroids (meaning only that if we have no debt against it, like Marion had to society, we can hold it forever. But if we want to borrow to invest today, we will have to repay tomorrow).
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Today, the Singapore STI was, like the rest, strong.
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
An all-time closing record high at 5913, at the close.
The Road to Beijing. Hey, where are Bob and Bing now?
As in all things in life, there is a cycle. Enjoy it while you can. Thanks for the memories.
Btw, at last report there were 115 billionaires in China. They might be short by a hundred if they did the count a couple months ago.
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .
A new record intra-day high 29133 was set today in Hong Kong. A couple days ago (Monday), I thought that traders in HK were seeing the froth, and taking steps to protect themselves. That was 1500 points and three days ago. Amazing eh?
Oh, thanks for the memories…
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
A new record high close today (18814) for the Bombay Sensex index. And another +1500 gain in just a little more than three trading sessions. Pop the bubbly.
Download Oct 8 Report on India by Deepak Lalwani.
On Oct. 8, Deepak Lalwani called this market over-bought and frothy. I said, “I suspect that when the balloon pops of this one that the global equity market boom is over. But, as you know, I think the international markets are splitting into the have’s and the have-not’s. US, UK, Europe and Japan represents the have-not group, which I believe will continue the Bear the next time market prices start to slide (watch India for signs of that). But the have’s group (India, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Russia, Brazil, Canada and Australia) will hold up for an extended primary cycle top (for one more cycle) – if HB&B doesn’t intervene and smash the commodity producers in the meantime. If they do, the whole world will go into a Bear. (Cara 100) ICICI Bank (IBN) and HDFC Bank (HDB) are on a tear. Look at the charts since the spike bottom in mid-August. Simply phenomenal.”
And that was BEFORE the last 1500 points!
“Alert to danger” is all I can say.
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
A new record high for the Aussie stock index at 6780. Good on you, mate.
US Dollar Review
Here is the chart of the recent trading.
The $USD is down again today, presently at 78.246, and likely heading for a 77 handle. In fact a couple hours ago, the low was 78.027.
Oil Review
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Here is the e-miNY Nov-07 Crude Oil chart.
Oil is presently 82.05, on a rocket. Hey, OPEC wants theirs too if Helicopter Ben is throwing the USD from the sky.
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.
Spot gold is now (9:09am ET) at 745.63.
Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.
Spot silver is now at 13.67 (9:10am ET),
As I have written, “There is still life in the old Bull yet. Central bankers are using everything from steroids to ginseng to squeeze out that final breath. So ride the PM Bull a little longer.”
I like the Kitco.com charts btw, but also need the ones at Yahoo Finance, StockCharts.com, BillCara2.com and ADVFN.com before making any opinion.
Here is the The Goldminers stock index chart.
$XAU is up 176.45.
Many junior resource companies will be exhibiting (fishing for investors) at the Cambridge Natural Resources Show in Toronto (Oct 21-22). I’ll be there too, and several of you have written to say you will join me. Anybody can join us if you wish. It’s a free show, and a good place to learn about these promoters and their penny dreadfuls. These are the companies that occasionally discover valuable properties.
Wrap-up
It’s always a great time to be connected and to share knowledge, like we do here. I have noticed some different names recently, and more requests for “Research” so I know you are searching the archives. That’s good. But, please remember that I have from one to two hours a day to devote to this site, so I can’t directly respond to many queries. It happens that others do; thank you all.
I will soon start putting out the Wall St research reports in a protected file so that the contents will not be republishable on the Web, which was the gripe of HB&B after they saw that Google and Yahoo spiders were capturing their stuff off my server in a matter of minutes, often before their own clients had the opportunity. Clearly, they wanted their clients to go to their server, not mine. They had a point.
But, we also have the right to analyze and discuss their published material among our own network just like the professional staff at Merrill or Goldman do when UBS and Lehman publish reports, and vice versa. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
And HB&B has been goosing us pretty good. :-)
Have a good day. My day started by having to change the tire for the second day in a row. Seems the rim is warped or whatever. By with practice, I am proud to say I got the whole deal done in 26 minutes! Yesterday, it took me over an hour (and I had help from a young passerby who said, "Hey don't hurt yourself"). Everything gets better with practice.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 11, 2007 09:18:12 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market , Cara's Daily Commentary
