For the week ended Sept. 29, US jobless claims rose +16,000 to 317,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which nudges the drivers (sorry, the traders) into their seats for the 8:30am race (ie, the US Jobs Report) this morning.

An extremely bearish report for August orders of manufactured goods in the US saw a -3.3 pct drop, following a +3.4 pct rise in July. That is the largest reduction in seven months.

The ECB and BoE kept interest rates unchanged as the central banks have become increasingly focused on accelerating inflation in the form of higher food and energy prices, thusly, some are saying, are "keeping lending rates in what can be viewed as safe ranges". The bigger point is that they are inclined to drop those rates because of pressure from the credit market fiasco, so by not raising them, they are conceding lower currency values as against commodity prices. Go $GOLD!

In the equity market, the Discretionary Spending sector (XLY) was a loser, burdened by the Airlines, while Utilities (XLU) pared losses.

On the earnings front, Research in Motion (RIMM) after the bell reported 2Q net income more than doubled to $287.7 million ($0.50/share), from year-earlier earnings of $140.2 million ($0.25 cents/share).

French bank Societe Generale is maintaining 2007 and 2008 earnings guidance despite problems in credit markets.

Marriott International Inc.'s (MAR) fiscal 3Q net income dropped -7.6 pct to $131 million ($0.33/share) from $141 million ($0.33/share) a year earlier.

On the deals front, Dubai's state-owned DP World may launch an initial public offering (IPO) to help it raise about $3.5 billion for projects and operations.

Citigroup is in talks with Kohlberg Kravis Roberts on funding to buy some of the leveraged loans on Citi's balance sheet.

Within the commodities and futures markets, Crude Oil regained $81/bbl, while Natural Gas jumped almost +2 pct. Medium and long-term US Treasury prices lifted (yields dropped), and the $USD dropped, providing strength for $GOLD, which popped mid-day.

For what it’s worth, yesterday, Morgan Stanley initiated coverage for North American steel companies, saying, "Steel stocks do not appear to be discounting the one-two punch of a deteriorating supply-demand balance and slowing global growth that we expect next year… they can retrace much of the gains they have posted in recent years."

Morgan's top short idea is US Steel (X $103.25), set at under-weight due to "high fixed costs and exposure to commodity tubular market."

On Aug. 28, US Steel announced a deal to buy (the remnants of) Canada’s Stelco for US$1.1 billion in cash (plus assume the debt, which the headlines didn’t state because the media was regurgitating the Brookfield/Brascan storyline).

X gave us a Sell-Alert in June at about $116. It then dropped down to about $78 in August before recovering (prior to the Stelco announcement), on its way to $112, and a second Sell opportunity this week.

Also, did you note that after (former Cara 100) Maxim Integrated (MXIM.PK $29.26) got bounced from Nasdaq to the OTC Bulletin Board for failure to produce financial summaries following a stock options back-dating fiasco, Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to a Buy with a 12-month Price Target of $33. You could have bought the stock at $28 after financial institutions were dumping it because it was no longer a component of the Nasdaq indexes.

Anyway, I wrote a nice piece about the Company (can’t find it) after I said I had to remove it Sept 26 from the Cara 100 on account of my needing to follow listed stocks only for the readers.

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar

Yesterday, there was the monetary policy announcement of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank where rates were unchanged. I indicated previously that move (or non-move as it were) was likely, and would not be positive for the $USD.

This morning, the US Jobs Report reports will be out. TV reporters most love to spin the employment data because they know it hits emotional hot buttons. In fact, these figures are preliminary estimates from the Labor Dept, which they can easily manipulate and then adjust later.

We ought to pay less attention to the absolute number, and stick to analyzing quarter over quarter trends. But, the fact is we do pay attention because we recognize that the data and the hype is used by powerful interest groups to try to move market prices in one direction or another.

A few years ago, the key report used by these large capital pools was the M1, 2 and 3 monetary aggregates. Now, at a time that data is important, the Fed authorities don’t want us to pay attention. They even scrapped the M3.

Sometime in the future, after the public catches on to the real utility of the data, they will select different data to spin their stories. This ‘spin the player’ is part of the game that goes on in trading the capital markets.

Today’s Jobs Report was “stronger than expected” and wage gains were higher than expected, so yields will rally (bonds down).

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The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Thursday session Cara 100 gainers.

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Here are Cara 100 losers from Thursday.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Thursday session.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes on Thursday.

It was a quiet day.

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Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes.

I am appreciative to the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc for providing the Cara 100 summaries. Later today, I will ask Danny Hughes to change Maxim (MXIM) for ???

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

RSI > 70 (12 of 27)

RSI < 30 (1)

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that traded Thursday with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

The Dow 30 gained +6 points (-0.56 pct) to close at 13974.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq Composite gained +4 points yesterday, closing at 2733.

The half-year chart shows that the Bull phase has continued, a bit beyond my expectations. I had been thinking Double-Top, but this interest by central banks to try to reflate their way out of problems in the credit markets took me by surprise. Like at the Olympics, they must be going for the Gold. But like Marion Jones admitted, steroids help. Now her five gold medals from the Sydney Games will likely have to be returned.

At the time this steroids stuff started in capital markets, I called it Paulson’s Pride, inferring it would be a good time but not for a long time.

Never assess someone’s track-record until you see the performance through thick and thin, or in the case of debt and equity markets, Bull and Bear.

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International Equity Markets Review

Asia-Pacific

Hong Kong was a rocket today!

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow traded down today by -0.16 pct to 17065.

The N225 was well over 18000 in July.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Today, the Singapore STI recovered sharply, closing up +1.03 pct to 3822.6.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

After Friday’s all-time closing record high at 5552, there has been no trading this week.

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .

The Heng Seng index of Hong Kong rallied +3.18 pct, to within 40 points of the record high 28871.0.

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

India was flat, but set a fresh intra-day record high.

(Cara 100) ICICI Bank (IBN) and HDFC Bank (HDB) are on a tear. Look at their charts since the spike bottom in mid-August. Simply phenomenal.

Here is the Deepak Lalwani weekly report on the India market:
Download file

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

The Aussie stock index gained +0.57 pct to 6617.3 today.

Go miners!

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Green arrows across Europe today (7:52am ET).

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Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

The FTSE is rocketing, up +0.84 pct at 1:40pm GMT. Isn’t this picture worth a thousand words? Or one… “rocket!”

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US Dollar Review

Here is the chart of the recent trading.

The $USD is down from yesterday morning, presently at 78.332, and likely heading for a 77 handle.

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Oil Review

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Here is the e-miNY Nov-07 Crude Oil chart.

Oil is up from yesterday’s 79.625 at this time of day, to presently 81.05.

Again, why am I not surprised?

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Spot gold is now (8:47am ET) at 730.4, up about +5 from yesterday morning. Again, I am not surprised. Now watch for the down spike to scare the weak hands. If, as and when you see it and it comes to a halt, pile in.

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Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

Spot silver is now at 13.31 (8:47am ET), which will likely hold the 13 level on the down spike, meaning traders ought to pile in.

As I wrote previously, I believe any pull-back will shake out weak hands, but smart traders will step back in and buy the dip, knowing that before the broad equity market enters a Bear, the precious metals will have the last dance.

There is still life in the old Bull yet. Central bankers are using everything from steroids to ginseng to squeeze out that final breath. So ride the PM Bull a little longer.

Recent Spot Silver chart.

I like the Kitco.com charts btw, but also need the ones at Yahoo Finance, StockCharts.com, BillCara2.com and ADVFN.com before making any opinion.

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Here is the The Goldminers stock index chart.

$XAU dropped -1.23 pct on the day (about -4.5 pct over two days) to close at 165.36.

PM prices recovered +1.84 pct yesterday and are now flat W/W.

Price pull-backs are good opportunities to re-load. It’s just a matter of timing the re-entry.

I was going to re-do the “Under The Microscope” series again this year, but frankly I don’t have time to do all I’d like to do. So little time; so much to do. Instead, I have been commenting in the Discourse section whenever I have time.

For those who missed it on Tuesday, “Aussieontop” (a top-flight mining executive with one of the top-tier gold mining companies) started an Excel spreadsheet tool for a group investigation of the junior metals resource exploration market. This is a terrific contribution to the Cara community.

Download Aussieontop file

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Many of these junior companies will be exhibiting (fishing for investors) at the Cambridge Natural Resources Show in Toronto (Oct 21-22). I’ll be there too. We will have a few of you as well. Join us if you wish, particularly on Sunday. It’s a free show, and a good place to learn about these promoters and their penny dreadfuls. These are the companies that occasionally discover valuable properties.

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Wrap-up

Have a good day. For Canadians, this is Thanksgiving weekend, and a holiday Monday. Like RIMM (or on the TSX, RIM), the cup overfloweth.

It’s a great time to be connected.

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