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October 31, 2007
Cara's Daily Report and Commentary, Wed., Oct 31, 2007
Early this morning, the $USD hit a low of 76.621 at about 3:30am ET, sending the British Pound to a 26-year high of $2.0743. And since the Euro started trading in 1999, it has never before been as high as today’s high of $1.44.67.
Long-term charts of the Euro and the British Pound show just how much damage has occurred to the USD due to the policies of Pres. George W. Bush, first inaugurated in January 2001.
In Jan. 2001, Light Sweet Crude Oil traded at about $28/bbl. This week it was just shy of $94, for a gain of 234 pct. That is an annualized increase of almost 30 pct versus a reported annualized rate of inflation of about 2 pct from January 2001.
Since former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank Alan Greenspan (Aug. 1987 to Jan. 2006) is up to writing books and giving public speeches these days, perhaps he would care to leave as his legacy a future book that details the truth of his relationship with George Bush. The American people deserve the truth.
At this point, traders are just trying to figure out what’s going to happen next. Will there be a change in policy or will the USD be permitted to fall even more? This afternoon at 2:15 pm ET, there will be some answers.
Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed. Early this morning there was a slightly negative bias to equity prices in Europe that started turning bullish in the past couple hours. It will be an interesting day.
Yesterday, the DJIA (-78), S&P 500 (-10), and Nasdaq Composite (flat) sagged from weakness in Energy (XLE) and Basic Materials (XLB).
UBS (UBS) reported falling from a net profit of +CHF2.2 billion in the year-ago 3Q to a net loss of -CHF830 million Swiss francs ($709.4 million) after due to write downs related to the sub-prime fiasco. The stock dropped -0.3 pct on strong volume. US Steel (X) posted a -36 pct drop in 3Q net income to $269 million compared with $417 million a year earlier.
There were some positive earnings reported. Procter & Gamble (PG) fiscal 1Q net income climbed +14 pct to $3.08 billion, compared with $2.7 billion a year earlier, on strong sales growth. Colgate-Palmolive (CL) posted a +22 pct rise in 3Q net income to $420.1 million, compared with $344.1 million a year earlier due to strong overseas sales and cost-cutting. Qwest Communications (Q) 3Q net income surged to $2.07 billion, compared with $194 million a year earlier due mostly to a tax gain.
Treasury yields and prices were mostly unchanged.
Crude plunged over -3 pct ahead of today's Department of Energy inventory report.
During the day, the USD appreciated vs the Yen and Euro before reversing to close lower. Gold and silver pulled back as the USD advanced, but could be ready for a bounce today should the FOMC cut rates, as expected.
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US and the Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
International Economics Review
The FOMC decision of the US Fed is reported today at the usual 2:15pm ET. There is more than the usual amount of interest.
As reported by Econoday, “Consumer confidence is down to its lowest level since Hurricane Katrina and before that to the beginning of the 2001 expansion. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 95.6 in October vs. September's 99.5. The index hit as high as 111.9 in July, a cyclical peak and just before the credit squeeze of August.” The consensus forecast had been for 99.0, so the message is loud and clear, American’s are unhappy with the economy and their rapidly falling standard of living.
Conference Board Survey Report.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .
US Equity Markets Review
Traders yesterday were downright over the moon as the DJIA advanced +64 points to close the session at 13870.26. Starting with historic sessions in Asia-Pacific markets, the global enthusiasm for a consensus 50 basis point cut in the Fed Rate was translated into much higher equity prices.
Traders go with the flow, but at times prepare themselves to exit long positions early. Today is a sign that short-term traders are doing some of that. My concern, however, is for the long-term trader.
I have pointed out for several weeks that “selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.”
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
The Nasdaq Composite gained +0.47 pct on the day to close at 2817.44. There is some technical support at 2725 should there be a pull-back.
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show in this section 2007_10_30 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
The two weakest sectors are (1) technology in the form of the semi-conductors and (2) telecom. Perhaps there are concerns over corporate earnings, and perhaps it is the lower guidance moving forward.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 3.81 | 3.81 | 3.83 | 3.64 |
| 6 Month | 3.88 | 3.89 | 3.93 | 3.91 |
| 2 Year | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.82 | 3.97 |
| 3 Year | 3.79 | 3.79 | 3.82 | 4.01 |
| 5 Year | 4.05 | 4.05 | 4.05 | 4.24 |
| 10 Year | 4.38 | 4.38 | 4.40 | 4.58 |
| 30 Year | 4.67 | 4.66 | 4.69 | 4.83 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.32 | 3.30 | 3.37 | 3.40 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.34 | 3.33 | 3.37 | 3.49 |
| 2yr A | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.41 | 3.47 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.44 | 3.44 | 3.46 | 3.48 |
| 5yr AA | 3.40 | 3.39 | 3.40 | 3.49 |
| 5yr A | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.58 | 3.70 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.77 | 3.76 | 3.76 | 3.77 |
| 10yr AA | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.66 | 3.78 |
| 10yr A | 3.98 | 3.96 | 3.89 | 3.90 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.38 | 4.35 | 4.37 | 4.33 |
| 20yr AA | 4.57 | 4.55 | 4.57 | 4.73 |
| 20yr A | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.38 | 4.33 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.60 | 4.59 | 4.54 | 4.81 |
| 2yr A | 4.71 | 4.70 | 4.71 | 4.89 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.82 | 4.80 | 4.82 | 5.06 |
| 5yr AA | 5.02 | 5.01 | 5.00 | 5.14 |
| 5yr A | 5.00 | 5.01 | 4.98 | 5.21 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.21 | 5.20 | 5.23 | 5.38 |
| 10yr AA | 5.57 | 5.58 | 5.60 | 5.79 |
| 10yr A | 5.66 | 5.69 | 5.57 | 5.78 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.66 | 5.71 | 5.74 | 5.96 |
| 20yr AA | 5.87 | 5.87 | 5.87 | 6.33 |
| 20yr A | 6.00 | 6.04 | 6.08 | 6.29 |
Yesterday, bond prices gained a little (and yields fell).
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
Interactive Daily data charts:


Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The mortgage companies pulled back again yesterday.
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
$CRB has hit 349.43, up 3.56. Wow. This is nose-bleed territory for govt officials who have been saying there is no inflation to worry about. It was only August when I opined that the Fed did not want to see the index above 320. Let’s just agree it is out of control.
Commodity price increases today mean inflated wages and prices tomorrow. And, of course, more lies from the Administration that inflation is either not happening or under control, and they have their eye on it. (LOL)
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
December Crude Oil (e-MiNY) futures hit a record 93.58 at the close and 93.70 mid day. I continue to say, this is out of control -- that is, not the oil price, but the Admin, and the political policies of the US. Wasn’t the price just about $20 in early 2003, and $40 at the end of 2004? How high can it go?
Isn’t that a question of how low can the USD go?
Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Everybody is talking about gold. Thanks to an increasingly weaker $USD, the PM beat goes on. Clearly, there is support for Gold, not just from the public (in growing numbers), but from most of the HB&B analysts, UBS, CS, BMO, RBC, etc.
Spot Gold this morning is presently (7:00am ET) at 784.10, softer than yesterday.
I still believe the price could drop to (just a guess) $700 in the next month or two, and that after a basing period, where smart money will be accumulating positions, there will be a subsequent run to over $1,000 per oz in 2008-9.
What I am saying is that today is a good market to trade for day traders only, in my opinion. The consensus differs. What the public is hearing is nothing but talk of 900 and 1000 gold NOW! The point I have been making is that the USD and Gold have made spectacular runs, and I think the monetary authorities will have to step into the fray and put a stop to the speculation before it overwhelms capital markets.
So, be careful at this point. If the FOMC decision is to cut, there may be a final bump to the gold price in this cycle, but I think that will be the peak, especially if the cut is 50bp.
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver is 14.27 at 7:27am ET today. It is down from 14.55 high yesterday afternoon.
I think we’ll see (say) a 13 price for silver at the next intermediate-term cycle bottom, and then, sometime in 2008-9, a high of 18-20, possibly higher.
Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

$PLAT hit 1469.50 mid-day and closed at 1469.10, up +15.40/oz. Speculative fever is high.
With platinum, traders have to be wary of the Chinese equity markets. Higher prices and trader enthusiasm there typically means higher bids for platinum.
The Chinese people value platinum above gold. Expensive cars, expensive jewelery, expensive liquor, expensive clothing... nothing but the best. But when push comes to shove, when market prices fall and rumors start, they are quick to sell stock and join lines to remove their money from banks.
Generally speaking, the Chinese, are excellent traders, and devout risk-takers. When the cycle peaks, they will be quick to sell.
Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Spot Platinum is presently 1440 (7:30am ET). It peaked yesterday morning at about 1467.
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
$PALL closed yesterday at 380.30, up +6.25 on the day, but still shy of the 389.95 set on the 15th.
The Weekly chart shows an indication that Palladium is struggling to surpass the previous intermediate-term cycle peaks of 390.45 (Apr 2007) and 410.89 (May 2006). I think the price is extended to the upside here, and that a test of the 320 level is likely over the next three months.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
$COPPER gained +5.15 to close at 353.75 on the contracts. In early October, the price hit a cycle high of 378.00.
The Weekly chart shows up like for Palladium. There are a series of intermediate-term cycle highs at 394.90 (May 2006), 380.70 (Apr-May 2007), 374.80 (July 2007) and 378 this month. I think the North American, Western Europe and Japanese economies are too weak, and the production of copper too high to support a break-out to higher prices. The 2007 low of 238.50 could be tested in the next six months.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Yesterday, the Philly Gold & Silver Miners Index popped +3.05 to a new high of 185.46.
Prices are now extended on the upside. The risk of a pull-back is very high. Should the FOMC decide to cut rates 25 or especially 50 basis points, the gold and silver miners will likely rock and roll some more, but I would be looking at the growing risk in these stocks. I would be watching the market closely here.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Today, Sweden's central bank raised its key rate by a quarter point to 4 pct and said it was likely to keep increasing rates. According to the WSJ, "many analysts expect the ECB will keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future, but some policy makers have begun to stress that mounting inflation risks could push the bank to raise rates."
Here is the chart of the week’s trading in the $USD.
The $USD rallied during the day yesterday to a high of 77.03, but then reality set in and the trade-weighted Dollar index closed at 76.74, down -0.09 (-0.12 pct).
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Yesterday, the Euro Index closed up +0.01 to 144.26.
A record since the Euro started trading in 1999 was set in the past 24 hours. European exporters are suffering a lot. This will hit employment and start to cause unrest as people will find that they cannot afford their mortgages, and so forth.
At some point, the authorities must intervene, but they are in a tough spot. If they drop rates, they are inviting inflation.
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:
The British Pound closed yesterday at 206.72, up +0.56 (+0.27 pct). After the close in NY, the British Pound has gone on to set a 27-year record as I noted in the opening commentary today.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:
The Japanese Yen weakened again by -0.14 to close at 87.08. There are discussions everywhere it seems that the Yen will strengthen and break out above the recent short-term cycle highs of 89.18, 88.28 and 88.04, but the trend seems to be down since mid-August.

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
The Cdn Loonie has been driving manufacturers and tourist operators loony. The pain is palpable. There are pleas for the Bank of Canada to cut rates and let some steam off the Cdn Dollar before it hits $1.10 American. This is a quite serious matter in Canada as I am sure it is in Europe.
Well, last evening, Canada’s minority govt finance Minister introduced support in the form of a mini-budget that will not be challenged by the opposition parties. The budget is basically a give-away of personal and corporate income taxes and federal sales taxes. That ought to help drop the Loonie to a more respectable figure.
Monday’s close was US1.0500. Yesterday, the close was US1.0491. The Cdn Dollar will likely drop back to about par with the USD, although if the Fed cuts rates again today, that pullback in the Cdn Dollar will be slowed somewhat.

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


US Equity Markets Review
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list thr









