interesting piece in today's Gartman letter,
he feels once the Yuan floats it will rise quickly before falling dramatically as much of the wealth that has been locked in china will flock to other markets for diversity.

not sure if this makes sense but could prove interesting.

The Gartman Letter is free for two weeks if anyone is interested in viewing that $400 usd daily report per month in your email.

Gold & Oil Rise As The Dollar Weakens
By Colin Twiggs
October 30, 2007 4:00 a.m. ET (7:00 p.m. AET)
http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

Does anyone think the Bankers dont care about the Dollar so they can SELL the AMERO to the masses?

They can say, look, Canada's currency is stronger, look at Canada's oil!
Mexico's oil too!

I Have CNBC on. They are harping on "the FED may not cut"

have a listen???

I think the odds of us getting a half-point cut tomorrow are better than stated. I will be ready to buy long tomorrow. Interestingly the CNBC guy used the expression "melt-up" this morning. How'd he know I'm having melted cheese for lunch?

A lot of money in China is now allowed to move into the Hong Kong market, this started Aug. 20th and and the Hang Seng Index has been on fire since. It still seems to have a lot of room to run, any suggestions on where to look?

Gartman has put up a new web page and on it he has noted his letter is NOT for "private investors" and therefore are not eligible for the free trial. Sad because I learned a lot from him in my free trial.

There seems to be a number of subtle leaks that the Fed won't cut 50. CNBC,, WSJ, Reuters, etc. with various stories. So it's either 25 or nothing, nada, zip, zilch.

"I Have CNBC on. They are harping on "the FED may not cut"

I can't help but think that's exactly what the HB&B wants us to think. They're probably loading up for the rate cut they know is coming tomorrow.

Just my guess.

Oil & Gas in Canada,

Interesting read this morning from the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors (CAODC), Drilling Activity Forecast for 2008. Rig utilization falling to 34% next year along with nat gas output dropping from 16BcF to 15BcF per day.

http://www.caodc.ca/

The Calgary Sun also put out a review of this report this morning

http://tinyurl.com/ywj46b

I'm LONG term long in energy, particularly domestic Nat Gas. Long term demand is still rising and production curves are flattening. Recent production has only been supported by sticking more straws into the same pools, very few new pools being found. NA infrastructure is heavily dependent on NG and it is not something that is easily imported (like oil) to make up the shortfall.

Bill,
I posted my 5-Day Momentum Indicator which is signaling a clear sell signal. It is an effective technical indicator.

http://financialpetition.org

There you go. Stop the stupidity.

Hi,

1. Of course that the Fed will cut. If you have any doubts, check out the sisaster going on in the commercial paper market: you can look at the charts at www.markit.com

2. If course that HB&B is manipulting the shaky hands to buy some cheaper assets and more importantly to suck in the shorts.

Think about all the trading commissions involved into having a pile op people buying puts and other sorts of short products, and then having to sell them all of a sudden...hmmmm! Yummy!

3. My bloomberg terminal tells me that a LOT of puts are being written over the indices, BUT, the PUT / Call ratio remains favourable to the long side on options over individual equities.

We will see a remarkable short squeeze.

Bill.........

The other day you mention about starting up an investment newsletter. I hope you give that a very high priority on your lists of things you want to do.

At lot of times I feel like I am flying my "investment plane" in fog without the use of instruments. I have the impression "the powers of the market" are "sharks" who resides farther upstream in the area of inside market information.

I would think this news letter would reward you amply and quickly.

Remember I get to sign up 1st! :-)

Waiting for Cramer to go ballistic again...

Disappointing bottom line on CRDN earnings.

Contemplating going long for play on possible Iran attack.

Thoughts?

question does anyone here use TD Ameritrade? I just switched from Tradestation (which was excellent but expensive if you don't trade the minimums) and I'm finding TD's order execution to be very slow...also I tried executing a buy on UA in the premarket when it was down 8.5% and it didn't go through even though the stock was below my limit for a good period of time. It wasn't a big trade but it still cost me a one day gain of 7%!

Jasper--- . . . . . . . Did establish a position this morning under 53 for agriculture equipment manufacturer AG which reports earnings tomorrow. . . . . . .
Posted by: Seamus at October 29, 2007 3:05 PM

AG on fire after blowout results. Hope you have a piece of it. Out this morning for nice one day gain of 9%. Like the company’s product especially with Asian exposure, but there will be another time to enter after pullback.

Isa,
I got my 1st free two week Gartman Letter in my email today. Maybe one need to make a request to view it on a trial basis. fyi

If you believe in goblins...

Anecdotally,
I have noticed that the day or two before a rate cut, gold is often 'pushed' down for no reason.

FranSix noted the basis is tight. I have noted elevation in the lease rates. The DX, while no longer falling, is chopping around in a 76.8 range. Unless there is a fundamental reason I missed (which may be very likely) my tinfoil hat often comes out on days like today.

Problem is, it can cut both ways. Here's two views to think about:

1. The market earlier priced in a 50 point cut, which was the source of the outstanding runup in gold, and it is now re-evaluating back down to a 25 point cut.

or

2. A 50 point cut is coming and the 'cartel' is pushing down gold in preparation for a large jump in gold.

Either way, being focused on bullion and not trading the announcement, it almost doesn't matter to me. Either cut is dollar-negative, gold positive.

Either the dollar keeps rolling down the steep hill, or it gets pushed off the cliff. End result: same.

My guess:25.

ive actually emailed Mr. Gartman before to counter some of his geo-political remarks which i felt were belt-fed to him by a right-wing washinton think-tank analyst, and he responded
fairly quick with very thoughtful and appreciative remarks, pure class.

-----

noticing something today re gold and the XGD in canada:

with gold making upward spikes yesterday the XGD had a small move up before settling down from its highs, but today with gold making a quick downward plunge the XGD didnt seem to follow suit and is making a recovery towards yesterday's close as gold creeps back only part of the way.

anyone else see this 1 day blip? are gold shares folk resisting the short term movement hoping for a rate cut tomorow?

Began,
I have not experienced a problem with TD Ameritrade that I can remember of. I was with TS for a short time as well. I have high speed internet and I usually see my trade go off in seconds in T & S as a market order. The premarket issue has to do with where you were routed. You may have to specify in the future to pick off a particular price that you are viewing.

stktrader.......

It used to be 30 days free trial.... my trial ended in Sept. But if you noticed his new web page he is trying to weed out the non company type of free trial requests. Before it was just asking now you need to supply this info.

Name:
Organization:
Postal Address:
Position Held:
Financial Markets Experience:
Telephone Number:

Quasi,

What are your favourite Natural Gas plays? I've also invested here and am looking to add another position or two as prices have come down so much (especially on the small caps).

FYI - my holdings in nat gas are Encana and Candian Natural Resources on the large cap side, Akita for gas drilling and Anderson Energy as a small cap. If you want any info on any of these, let me know and I will post.

seamus, congrats, i missed your post though i think saw reference to AG earlier. Day before earnings is not a time that I like entries and my exposure level is more than high enough. Fido research validates AG, fwiw.

MikeNYC
appreciate the views; While I have no positions in gold/miners, I want to jump in again. GLD and IAU are primary choices (previous comments on ETF's like kaimu's are noted!)

Trend Portfolio

Stopped out of PG with a 6.7% gain. Earnings came out this morning with a 8% gain in sales. EPS of 92c vs 79c. Analysts were expecting 89c.

Company is expecting a 2Q eps of 95 to 97c.

The negative - margins are expected to be temporarily lower due to higher commodity and energy costs but will recover in the second half of the year.

Am shorting WAG with a small position today

I like Harmony. They announced pretty bad results yesterday and the stock held fast, above the 20 sma, having made a higher low than the previous low, a day before a probable rate cut. Go HMY!

I also enjoyed Genesis's attachment that describes how Wall Street turned housing into their casino and screwed American homeowners. Every decade or so Wall Street lays another egg, don't they? Stan "the man" O'Neill is a joke, plain and simple, and I am wondering how a jerk like that gets a job like that in the first place.

FranSix,
Can you comment on which contract month you used to calculate the gold basis?

Consumer Confidence at lowest level in 2 years.

So what's propping up these tech stocks?

bb

Re Nat Gas

Yes I too like Encana and CNR on the large side and I still like some of the trusts, currently holding Advantage, Harvest and Penn West. The trusts have been beaten down with the tax law changes, so you have to be careful when to enter and exit, but the distribution is great you just gotta watch em as if they price turns the dist won't cover the capital loss.

As for juniors a lot of them were beaten down after the trust tax change, as most of them had the plan to explore & develop the properties and then sell out to a trust to handle the day to day ongoing production, then they start the cycle all over again. These guys don't want to be producers they are best at ex & dev and the trusts don't want the exploration risk they would prefer to buy proven and just produce it. At this point the new gov tax system is upsetting the old routine and the dust has not yet settled. And now Alberta decides to change the royalty structure, lots of indecision as to how this will all play out.

The only junior I'm looking at right now is Gentry who's chart seems to be making a comeback recently. On the other side I'm also looking at the pipeline angle, I like the Enbridge chart but don't currently have a position.

Wasn't the last .50 cut prefaced on that Monday and Tues morning with folks on CNBC and Boomberg saying the exact same things they are now, i.e. "earnings results not so bad, maybe no cut at all...." blah blah blah?

Bull Hunter,
I believe the tech stocks are being supported by international sales as a result of the weak dollar. Cheers

holdenll - In case I missed your response to my question from several days ago: Do you have an automated selection system based on the criteria you've stated, or do you identify prospects via 1-at-a-time chart watching (or some other means)? If an automated system, care to share how it works?

Thanks, yaba.

Cheers to you!

Bull Hunter -

Actually, tech is bucking the trend on the back of AAPL, GOOG & RIMM with a few other peons thrown in for good measure. Strong momentum in a few large names with stories Wall Street gushes about.

JML

Mom&Pop Stuff:

Talking to one of the helpful Fidelity (some say Fido) persons the other day, when concerned about my Money Market (MM) cash in the FDRXX fund where most cash goes in your IRA/Roth/Brokerage accounts, losing par value i.e. when a dollar is quoted less then $1.00, like maybe $0.98 because of all this subprime chaos, I was informed that if one watches the rate of return for the MM fund (now @ 4.94% 7-day average) one could tell if the worst was about to happen.

As investments in this fund become less in value, the deficiencies are made up by lowering the rate of return to you. So as the 7-day interest rate approaches ZERO, one should be on guard and place the cash somewhere else, like a ‘T’ Bill (treasury) or the like.

If the situation prevails and your ‘T’ is coming due, be sure to invest it in something else within 24 hours or your $ will shrink to less than $1.00 par value.

Thanks for your input, Jumble.

Good luck.

dr.cosa--GDX (goldminer etf) followed gold down.

Old Goat

I do not have an automated system. I like to use the old noggin! I use charts on my Schwab account.

A review: Make sure the SLOPE of the weekly and daily 22 day moving average is upward. When you have a daily close below the 13 day moving average, mark that stock. Buy when the stock appears that will close above the prior 3 days close AND the 22 day slope is still upward. I use only Cara100 stocks. It is not naughty to short Cara100's...look at HOV.

Transactions - http://tinyurl.com/2hd44p
Forecasts - http://tinyurl.com/34tqpz

I have forecasts because I try to keep the long portfolio limited to 12 - 15 stocks. Almost all the forecasts I have made are positive.

Constructive criticism welcome. Thanks for your interest.

technically Bill, hurricane season ends November 30.
There is still plenty of time for more storms (weather-wise, or financially:)

McFauld's Lake plays Noront (NOT), MacDonald (BMK) and Fancamp (FNC) have swung back approximately 10% today. They are still up very big over the past 2 weeks. Also, Pinetree Capital (PNP) issued press releases during these two weeks stating that it (and its actors) have acquired more than 10% of the outstanding shares of Noront and MacDonald.

Hey, Genesis. Good to see you here. I've signed the petition. Others should, too.

I've been following ONNN closely lately, and was thinking of buying ahead of earnings. My better judgment told me to wait. Today ONNN is down 17% following a disappointing 3Q report. Sometimes the best trade is the one you never make.

I'm seeing strong bearish divergences on the weeklies in NDX, SPX and the RUT. You can probably find them on other indexes, too, I would imagine. I chickened out on buying the SDS yesterday morning when the SPX hit 1544. No regrets yet, as I think there's plenty of time to act tomorrow after 2:15 and the direction becomes clearer.

My outlook for the SPX is either it breaks convincing up through 1543 or down through 1520 tomorrow.

C.Note: FWIW, I am not sure who you were talking to at Fido but that info may not be accurate. Fido is committed to maintaining the $1 NAV at any cost (short of Armagedon). They will shore up with their own reserves if need be. If there are problems going on you will not be able to detect by watching the 7-day yield IMHO.

In my experience it isn't necessary for the 20 week average to be in an upslope to have a good trade.

FITB RSI-7D just crossed 30 and RSI-7W,RSI-7M are below 30... is that a buy signal?

I believe Bill's last comment on FITB was an observation about the length of the downtrend...

Crammer .......

"Armageddon is back on the agenda"

but this time he does it in a calm manner...

http://tinyurl.com/yw6zwg

Bill i hope this email is not totally out of place i had to post it becuase its as funny as it is instructive:

the following is an email exchange between the
hedge fund big wig Daniel Loeb and a prospective client Alan lewis

—–Original Message—–
From: Alan Lewis
Sent: Tuesday, March 22, 2005 11:34 AM
To: Daniel Loeb
Subject: CV

Daniel,
Thanks for calling earlier today. Enclosed is my cv for your review. I look forward to following up with you when you have more time.
Best regards,
Alan
Alan D. Lewis
Managing Director
Sthenos Capital Ltd.

—–Original Message—–
From: Daniel Loeb
Sent: 27 March 2005 23:08
To: Alan Lewis
Subject: RE: CV

what are your 3 best current european ideas?

Daniel Loeb
Managing Member
Third Point LLC
—–Original Message—–
From: Alan Lewis
Sent: Monday, March 28, 2005 1:03 AM
To: Daniel Loeb
Subject: RE: CV

Daniel,
I am sorry but it does not interest me to move forward in this way. If you wish to have a proper discussion about what you are looking to accomplish in Europe, and see how I might fit in, fine.
Lesson one of dealing in Europe, business is not conducted in the same informal manner as in the U.S.
Best regards,
Alan

—–Original Message—–
From: Daniel Loeb
Sent: 28 March 2005 09:50
To: Alan Lewis
Subject: RE: CV

One idea would suffice.
We are an aggressive performance oriented fund looking for blood thirsty competitive individuals who show initiative and drive to make outstanding investments. This is why I have built third point into a $3.0 billion fund with average net returns of 30% net over 10 years.
We find most brits are bit set in their ways and prefer to knock back a pint at the pub and go shooting on weekend rather than work hard. Lifestyle choices and important and knowing one’s limitations with respect to dealing in a competitive environment is too. That is Lesson 1 at my shop.
It is good that we learned about this incompatibility early in the process and I wish you all the best in your career in traditional fund management.

Daniel

—–Original Message—–
From: Alan Lewis
Sent: Monday, March 28, 2005 4:08 AM
To: Daniel Loeb
Subject: RE: CV

Daniel,
I guess your reputation is proven correct. I have not been in traditional fund management for more than eleven years. I did not achieve the success I have by knocking back a pint, as you say. I am aggressive, and I do love this business. I am Half American and half French, and having spent more than half my life on this side of the pond I think I know a little something about how one conducts business in the UK and Europe.
There are many opportunities in the UK and Europe, shareholder regard is only beginning to be accepted and understood. However, if you come here and handle it in the same brash way you have in the U.S. I guarantee you will fail. Things are done differently here, yes place in
society still matters, where one went to school etc. It will take tact, and patience (traits you obviously do not have) to succeed in this arena.
Good luck!

Alan

—–Original Message—–
From: Daniel Loeb
Sent: 28 March 2005 10:23
To: Alan Lewis
Subject: RE: CV

Well, you will have plenty of time to discuss your “place in society” with the other fellows at the club.
I love the idea of a French/english unemployed guy whose fund just blew up telling me that I am going to fail.
At Third Point, like the financial markets in general,”one’s place in society” does not matter at all. We are a bunch of scrappy guys from diverse backgrounds (Jewish Muslim, Hindu etc) who enjoy outwitting pompous asses like yourself in financial markets globally.
Your “inexplicable insouciance” and disrespect is fascinating; It must be a French/English aristocratic thing. I will be following your “career” with great interest.
I have copied Patrick so that he can introduce you to people who might be a better fit-there must be an insurance company or mutual fund out there for you.

Dan Loeb
————————————————
From: Alan Lewis
To: Daniel Loeb
March 28 2005

Hubris.

————————————————
From: Daniel Loeb
To: Alan Lewis
March 28 2005

Laziness.

From Minyanville.

It looks to be a busy week. I don't expect ANY of this to be good news.

Tuesday October 30
10:00 Consumer Confidence: 100.0 cons
Wednesday, October 31
8:30 GDP-adv: 2.1% cons
8:30 Chain Deflator – Adv: 2.1%
8:30 Employment Cost Index: 0.9% cons
10:00 Construction Spending: -0.3%
2:15 FOMC Policy Statement
Thursday, November 1
8:30 Personal Income: 0.4% cons
8:30 Personal Spending: 0.4% cons
8:30 Core PCE Inflation: 0.2% cons
8:30 Initial Claims: 331k prev
10:00 ISM Index: 52.0 cons
10:00 Pending Home Sales: -6.5% prev
Friday, November 2
8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls: 90k cons
8:30 Unemployment Rate: 4.7% cons
10:00 Factory Orders: 1.0% cons

Bill...

Yesterday you said... "

Perhaps knowing my interest in setting up an offshore international brokerage, my private banker sent me this note: "As you may know, we are one of the few (if not the only) Swiss financial institution with nearly full access to all Middle East equity markets. We have a special arrangement entitling us to deal in securities in all Gulf Corporation Countries (Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain) as well as in Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Morocco."

Just in case anybody else is interested."

Would it be possible to contact your Swiss institution for this or other Swiss bank functions?

If so, what do I need to do?

Geckojb said "Fido is committed to maintaining the $1 NAV at any cost (short of Armagedon). They will shore up with their own reserves if need be."

Who said this?

If Fidelity said this why not make an official posting on their web site. Verbal statements are not very comforting.

The Fed is already set in 25 bps in order to please the street and the cheering crowd will probably produce a short term pop in equities. The rest of the assets, like corporate bonds, CDOs, etc. will do very little. The crunch is set to continue and inflation is making its way into the broad economy.

This Fed is the worst I have seen in my life -- "Helicopter" Ben will end up creating s crisis once people figure it out.

Best strategy -- Go flat into tomorrow and then play like a contrarian, specially if the market rallies.

David Frost on NPR recounted Nixon tricks that Cheney could learn from:

Before suggesting something outrageous, reject something MORE outrageous: "I am being advised to invade Canada. I completely reject this irresponsible course of action ... "

Suggesting causality by denying it: "Just days after Woodward & Bernstein released their book, my wife Pat had a stroke. Now, I am not suggesting the book CAUSED Pat's stroke, but .... "

LOL

check that...my little TDAmeritrade premarket issue cost me 17% today on UA. The price I had was @ 53.75, now running at 63. Great. Anyone familiar with premarket orders through TD's StrategyDesk?

This is the buying opportunity I predicted yesterday.

The macroeconomic picture isn't what we trade. We trade human psychology. When others want to sell we buy. When others want to buy we sell. The more they panic, the more we keep our heads (and buy the panic). It's a real simple thing.

Furthermore, the only way one can be sure one's getting a good price is when the dumb few ARE panicking. The bid swings wildly low hanging fruit falls to the ground. I liken it to this...

You are a collector for the mob. You can only be sure your collecting all the money (getting the best price) if the guy's up against a brick wall and you're rifleing through his wallet while holding him at gun/knifepoint. The trick in this business is to make sure you sell prior to these panics so that YOU DON'T WIND UP BEING THAT GUY.

I apologize if the above offends any of your more gentemanly sensibilities but I think my description is valid. It is the essence of short term trading in my opinion.

Goldman Says `Take Profits' After Crude Hit Record

http://tinyurl.com/2ew988

geckojb:

The information about the MM account was provided by a nice sounding lady at the Sr. trading desk last week.

However, since your wording was similar to some I had read before I decided to contact Fido once more to see if they would repeat what they said to me.

I have just finished a conversation with Fido Representative John Smith (I kid you not) who first said he agreed with my original statement above, read to him word for word.

Then,after relaying your post, he agreed with your position and backed away from mine.

BOTTOM LINE:

There is no guarantee!!

I stand corrected and retract my statement above :(

geckojb:

The information about the MM account was provided by a nice sounding lady at the Sr. trading desk last week.

However, since your wording was similar to some I had read before I decided to contact Fido once more to see if they would repeat what they said to me.

I have just finished a conversation with Fido Representative John Smith (I kid you not) who first said he agreed with my original statement above, read to him word for word.

Then,after relaying your post, he agreed with your position and backed away from mine.

BOTTOM LINE:

There is no guarantee!!

I stand corrected and retract my statement above :(

kry------------anyone know estimate time for the co. to get the final go ahead. that is the crystallex enviro. permit. LIKE before the year end or what?? many thanks and every one have a great day.

On the Fed

Ben is trying to offset the air out of the housing bubble with a stock market bubble... ...as someone said afew days ago, he is acting like an irresposible bartender.

I still do not understand why the Fed should bail out ibg money and Wall Street... ...but that seems a clear objective instead of lowering the price of gas I pay for my car or my food bill at the supermarket.

Fred:
Any thoughts on PineTreeCapital as a basket of the juniorjunior resource copanies? What's their reputation?
thx!

rusty, re:KRY
I think the best estimate is 1 year ago.
In other words, no one knows... If you read the press releases on the Crystallex website you will see that they have been saying anytime now for quite a long time.
Tim
Long KRY

Jasper,
You can get a lot of responses as to Pinetree at the CCJ Yahoo message board. A decent board. Pinetree is/was weighted in Uranium stocks. CCJ is the board for the commodity.

Jasper,
I believe that Bill has a relationship with Sheldon Inwentash, Chairman and CEO of Pinetree. If you use the search function on this site you should be able to come up with some information. I don't personally have an opinion on Pinetree. They have positions in hundreds of companies.
Below is the link to their website:
http://tinyurl.com/2nmo3v

Russty,

Permits are for amateurs. I honestly believe now having done it myself that trading KRY will leave you ill-prepared to trade other stocks (because it actually trades differently) and will HINDER YOUR PROGRESS AS A TRADER. Either stick it in a drawer and forget it or just sell it.

I totally agree with Shark_Attack on KRY, whether you use fundamental or technical analysis to trade in stocks not one aligns with investing in KRY. In trying to be a better trader I've realized that I have to spend zero time on stocks like that. I still have a small number of shares and a few options but have written them off on my books as a big fat 100 percent loss, if the permit ever comes I will sell and never look back. This site has renewed my love of investing and I am a much better trader because of it.

When I post a message it takes me to a log-in screen, then to the message board in a different format that is more pleasing to read. Is there a way to make that the default view?

as mentioned earlier today, can't tell if the closing sell-off is an ominous omen or a bear trap...staying out for now...

RE: Fed decision tomorrow

I think the Fed will cut 25bp tomorrow, but will issue a frightening statement along with it, describing their worries about the inflation and the possible recession, which they are trying to prevent with this cut. They need to save their face and not kill the economy, so they MUST mention the possibility of increasing inflation (so that people won't say that they are incompetent and could not see inflation coming). Since the 25bp cut is fully priced into the Fed funds rate futures, the traders will react primarily to the Fed statement, and hence I think the market is likely to go down tomorrow in response to the Fed statement.

russty1
No.

My unwanted .02 on that? Buy some on a pullback with money you don't care about. Throw the shares in a drawer and forget about it. Maybe the lottery ticket comes in, maybe not.

Don't have 'money you don't care about?' Then beware.

I used to have shares in a small Kazhak oil company, an explorer. About a year and a half ago or so, I sold them at a small loss, at 2.50 or something. I still keep it at the top of my watch list. Today's price? 8 cents. Up from 2 cents earlier this week.

It's a reminder to myself to be careful of small resource companies, especially those with no current production.

David -

Why would the bias be to the downside when almost all meetings with some level of built-in expectations have ended up triggering some bull fest? I read somewhere an honest question as to who the shorts in this market are and the quasi-impossibility to place a definitive identity on this group to whom the press loves to attribute the ferocious upsurge. Honest, who is a dedicated short of this market? I see and hear about cautious bulls hedging their new longs via puts, about 130/30 strategies that force you into some short positions, about quant funds playing up/down momentum. But who is the invisible dark knight dead short against ther whole market?

JML

Green arrow,

If you prefer that view, then sign in, but don't post a message and it will leave you in that view, even if you sign back out.

Personally, I find the tiny black type on white very difficult to read--aging eyes, I suppose.

Telestar, why would a company publicly announce something that hasn't happened? What has been publicly disclosed is that Fido's exposure is under 6% and they feel this is not something that will impact the NAV in a material way. Everyone will have to make their own determination on this info. The info I provided that is not public, well let's say that this comes from a level well above that of Mr. Smith in a call center.

I would like to believe that their are several reasons to believe that Fidelity in an emergency would put up their own capital.

In & out, in & out ect ect ad nauseam

I love Trading but this market is making me nuttier than usual. I'm NOT a daytrader. Not that I wouldn't, I'm just not set up for it. Having said that I have been having very profitable results over the past few weeks playing the solar sector. YGE,STP,JASO,LDK,& TSL. Very short term. Some days (Like today) were a day trade cause they keep hitting my stops after a nice run. I suppose I should not complain my winners have been larger than my losers it's just that I wish I could believe that tomorrow (IE: any day the markets are open) wont be THE BIG ONE. so that I could relax my stops & give them some room to maneuver. Maybe I'm just being to risk averse but I just can't/don't trust market direction/leadership enough to plan any trades longer than day-after-tomorrow. (not a reference to Fed-day 10/31)
Oh well! Trade the tape, Go with the flow and all that.
The bottom line is I'm just mad because all my trading capital is "unsettled" & I can't put on anymore trades without making a deposit which just can't happen.

Thanks for letting me vent
And Thanks to Bill & all of you who make this such a great place to talk markets.

David, I tend to agree with your take on the FOMC scenario tomorrow. And if you believe all the talk about traders standing pat ahead of the announcement, I expect we'll see an explosive move one way or the other. And, like you, I'm inclined to expect it will be to the downside.

Again, I'm looking for a strong move above 1543 to go long, or below 1520 to go short.

Is anyone toying with the idea of putting a straddle on the SPY early tomorrow?

Also, remember that the last time we went through this, the S&P provided a tell around noon of the "surprise" 50 bps move.

I think Green Arrow is refering to this view:

http://tinyurl.com/2ssehg

We are sent there after signing in.

I prefer the current Green/White view myself...

Bill,

I like the blog's current view and hope you don't change it.

As I pointed out above, anyone who wishes to read the small gray type on white background can do so simply by signing in and not posting.

Here's a third vote for the current green/white larger type view.

Portent of tomorrow?

Gold - largish volume in evidence in several miners (AUY,GG,GFI,ABX,KGC) in the last 5 minutes

? Could it be ETFs, say GDX, reacting to inflows? Or big bets on tomorrow - $down/gold up.

Minor Dow "sell off" began at 3:15

But 'they' just couldn't let the SPX close below 1530, eh?

Fred, thx for the pointers on pine tree. The search function is always a good idea.

I gave back more than half of yesterday's stunning gains.

The downward bias David proposes, IMO, comes as soon as it appears that the US$ is going to stabilize, which only happens if the Fed takes a tough line on inflation and/or perception crystallizes around the thought that the free-money bailouts are over. We've seen what their recent views on that front are, as Ben caved to the whining of HB&B and served them up a 50 bp cut at the last meeting.

What are the facts? Leadership is coming from energy and materials on the heels of a US$ that's nowhere to be seen. Financials are down YTD, the semiconductor index has been getting hammered, and the only thing holding tech up is a select chosen few with P/Es that will be cut in half when the inevitable slow down comes (or is it different this time?).

Could we go higher here? Absolutely. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Ben delivers another 50 bp cut tomorrow. That would give HB&B the ultimate opportunity to fleece the crowds. Any last bit of sideline money would have to come pouring in, shorts would get slaughtered, and we'd take out the October highs in short order. Media shills would announce blue skies ahead and start dusting out the scripts for the Santa Clause year-end rally. Meanwhile, the US$ is at 0.71, gold's at $950, and oil at $110, but who cares, the Dow's up, right?

I mean seriously, as a Canadian, my dollar is up twenty-two percent YTD. Just a month ago I was able to buy a full greenback with my dollar, and now I get 21 wooden nickels for a loony? If you're a US resident, maybe the August panic low was a glorious buying opportunity. But had I bought the $SPX at the bottom of that low and held until now, I'd be looking at a 6% loss in Canadian dollar terms.

With a 25 bps cut tomorrow, I expect not much will happen. The Dow probably closes 150 points higher, the dollar drops another half of a cent, same old same old. At some point, though, folks are going to be turning their furnaces on for winter while their adjustable rate mortgages continue to reset higher. It will be interesting to watch consumer spending this holiday season.

Geckojb,

A very few stand-up companies made the announcement that they would cover the Buck and not break it in money market funds. If memory serves me, it was a few Canadian companies.

If memory serves me, it was a Bloomberg article that disclosed that some companies put this junk in their money market funds, not the fund companies coming clean.

I’m just saying that if that is what Fidelity is saying privately, why not state it publicly to provide “peace of mind” to their shareholders.

We all know people keep money there because their prime goal is preservation of capital. Just imagine how many millions, perhaps billions were moved from Fidelity’s cash reserves to Fidelity’s Treasury money funds because of their secrecy.

I do appreciate your input on the subject.

Regarding Fido Money Market accounts: The prospectus lists the risks as well as the general asset allocation (US treas/other stuff). One could talk to the president of the company, and whatever is said in nil--if it ain't in writing (prospectus), it just plain "ain't".

I hope that works out.

BestBuy is one of the most anti-consumer, horrible companies around. In my own opinion, and many, many others.

Here's just one example.

=====================================
Consumerist.com:

For those of you new to this issue, Best Buy was caught using a duplicate website to fool customers who tried to compare internet prices with in-store prices.

Customers who asked why the price was higher in the store were often told that "the sale must have ended" in the time it took them to drive to the store. They were then told to "check the website" to see for themselves, then were shown an identical-looking website that displayed different "in-store" prices.

We think Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal said it best back in May (right after he sued Best Buy):

"Best Buy gave consumers the worst deal - a bait-and-switch-plus scheme luring consumers into stores with promised online discounts, only to charge higher in-store prices," Blumenthal said.

"The company commonly kept two sets of prices - one on its Internet site and an often higher set on its in-store, look-alike, available on kiosks. The in-store site was an Internet look-alike, commonly with higher prices, which were charged to consumers. Best Buy broke its promise to give the best price - an Internet version of bait-and-switch - a technological bait-and-switch-plus.

"Best Buy used in-store kiosks to conceal lower online prices and renege on its price match guarantee. Consumers seeking bargains were led to believe that lower online prices had expired or never existed. Best Buy treated its customers like suckers, not patrons to be prized."

======================================

http://consumerist.com/consumer/best-buy/

Good luck, Bill.

I posted this earlier this summer, when I was moaning about the dark pools and how it seemed that everybody was trying to do everything they could to conduct transactions away from the market, and complaining about how GS seems to run everything.

The Italians see it and were (are? I hope so) mad about it.

Italians claim country run by Goldman Sachs
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 1:10am BST 30/05/2007

Goldman Sachs men: Massimo Tononi, Mario
Draghi and Romano Prodi

Italians grumble that Goldman Sachs runs their country, much as the Jesuits ran countries during the Counter-Reformation.

Premier Romano Prodi is an ex-Goldman Sachs man, as is central bank president Mario Draghi and the deputy treasury chief Massimo Tononi.

The price paid for having so many friends at court is that the elite bank inevitably becomes entangled in the financial scandals that so often swirl around the Italian political class.

("Becomes entangled?" That's one way to put it.)

http://tinyurl.com/2cjmvc

as n2son alludes to, it's not which direction things turn tomorrow, it's having a plan in place for all the likely scenarios (and watching for qucik reversals of the initial rxn and counter-rxn)..including the possibility of waiting until thursday to take a position...

dry bulks were beaten today:

Drybulk Symbol Last Volume Change
Diana DSX 39.23 5,355,809 -5.59 (-12.47%)
Dryships DRYS 108.00 11,200,302 -22.97 (-17.54%)
Eagle Bulk EGLE 32.19 1,455,549 -3.10 (-8.78%)
Excel Maritime EXM 64.90 2,049,300 -15.01 (-18.78%)
Euroseas ESEA 18.31 296,961 -1.58 (-7.94%)
Freeseas FREE 7.99 724,266 -0.97 (-10.83%)
Genco Shipping GNK 67.50 1,762,600 -10.44 (-13.39%)
Navios Holdings NM 16.18 3,441,200 -2.60 (-13.84%)
OceanFreight OCNF 24.99 463,371 -3.26 (-11.54%)
Paragon Shipping PRGN 24.75 404,583 -2.25 (-8.33%)
Quintana Maritime QMAR 26.86 1,486,469 -1.71 (-5.99%)
TBS International TBSI 58.86 1,133,051 -9.39 (-13.76%)

The screen shot TimG posted is the view format I was talking about. I do prefer this Green/white color scheme and didn't mean to be negative in anyway, just thought I was doing something wrong when it kicked back to this format and also wonder if that is what causes the double postings from people time to time. I do like the way it takes advantage of the full screen.

RobBoss
I saw the late volume surges in AUY GG GFI etc. but on the 10 min. chart almost identical late surges occured yesterday at the close ... and gap downs occured this morning in these issues.
More telling is the late sell off in ABX, one of the big boy stocks.
I am seeing evidence that a short term correction has begun in PM and then, soon, bullion. This may be a "tell" that the fed will hold rates steady (to show the world BOS), or a head fake to make room for the big boys buying in front of a big PM move.
Who the hell knows.
Neutral as best as I can get and prepared for either outcome.

My recollection over the past couple of years is the initial reaction to the Fed is not the important one. It's the 2nd (pun intended) reaction (usually 30 minutes later) which is the one to trade your plan.

There was a chart with examples of this somewhere on the net but I didn't bookmark it. Just remember it around Fed meet time. FWIW.

Hi!

Please read this article, which clearly offers a view of the suffocating situation of US Banks, and the current dangers to the financial sistem.

In this environment, of course that the FED will cut agressively.

http://tinyurl.com/33ty8t

If the fed cuts aggresively they will scare the hell out of the markets: What do they know? This would be disastrous and would only happen if they really did know something they ain't telling us. I see the market moving down big time after a short "relief rally" and gold to the heavens.
They might also want to show the world that they have BOS and actually belive in our government's
policies and the dollar. That would mean no cut at all. Result: market and gold would both adjust... but would anyone really believe them?
The correction would be short and sweet and offer good buy opps in PMs etc.
The third and whimpy decision would be to do the expected: .25 cut, yawn. I see that course as more a sell out than either of the other possibilities and simply prove that they have no
huevos.
A non-event... so we would need to stay the course.
The odds are with us.
Buenos noches.

It looks like gold and PMs are being taken down here in late market action.
That is usually a set up for the fed to cut rates without having to explain the consequences.
How disappointing.
No integrity, and no interest in the "average" americans' plight. As long as we citizen/victims stay silent this will continue.

QID you know that double inverse ETF based on some sort of derivatives in order to get the double payback. Well just saw a press release on Yahoo that as of Oct 31 the AMEX will start options trading on them.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071030/nytu192.html?.v=1

Checked the AMEX site news and find on Oct 29 they also started trading options on the following ETF's.

Ultra Short MidCap400 ProShares (Symbol: MZZ)
Ultra Short S&P500 ProShares (Symbol: SDS)
Ultra S&P500 ProShares (Symbol: SSO)
Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (Symbol: DIG)
Ultra Real Estate ProShares (Symbol: URE)

Doesn't surprise me to see more options on the regular ETF's just on the double long/short derivative ETF's. Now those options should provide some real leverage and volatility for those who want that sort of thing.

More derivatives based on underlying derivative products, lets be careful out there.

UUU brought us a nasty Halloween surprise - production estimates for 2008 are cut nearly in half.

"If the fed cuts aggressively they will scare the hell out of the markets: What do they know?"

The same argument was made in September and you know what happened then.

I worry that the Professor is going to do the right thing tomorrow and hold pat on rates but i thought the same thing back in September.

Did you see the clip on Bloomberg this morning where Jim Rogers calls Bernanke a Madman? Jim's what they call a straight shooter.

Hey BIll, there are quite a lot of differences between Leopard and Tiger--some big, some little. Apple lists 300+ tweaks. Here the complete list:

http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/300.html

David Pogue's Missing Manual on Leopard won't be out until early December, but it's one of the best series.

If you wan't something sooner, here's an ebook that would be very helpful:

http://www.takecontrolbooks.com/leopard-customizing.html

BTW, Leopard is currently selling very well, far outpacing Tiger in the same time frame.

http://macmegasite.com/node/3921

Impending Credit Market Supercriticality?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/10/impending-credit-market.html

Leisa is 100% correct The $1 NAV of MM's is in no way guaranteed as it is a security, not backed by FDIC and what I was told is not clearly in the prospectus. It's an important distinction.

On another note..Has anyone who is able to write, written their credit crisis article or is someone remaining? I don't think I can bear reading another one of these.

It will be the first event in history that ten's of thousands of people will be able to claim that they wrote about it before it impacted the markets. A whole new breed of prognosticators if you will. That and the dollar declining stuff....Even more sick is I have a presentation to a group of investors and one of the topics to be discussed????? yep the Dollar.

Maromatics:
Thanks for the link to that article about 'level 3' assets... new territory for me...it certainly supports the opinion which you expressed this morning.
regards,
joey

A very interesting article on why dry shipping went south today. The article states possible implications relating to less demand by the Chinese for steel deliveries and therefore less demand to transport them...I'm suspicious if this might be the harbinger to an approaching "Chinese" market top?

I was very lucky today as I noticed DRYS cross my TraderFeed scanner just as selling momentum was building and made a quick 16% day-trade.

http://tinyurl.com/2rzpyx

I invite you to share your thoughts on this article.

As I study the charts I see that the uptrend is definitely still in place and I an fairly certain we will exceed the old highs on the Dow. I also doubt that the fed will mess around with a mere .25 cut. How about a .75 cut?

JML: the "dark knight" is me. Just kidding. :)

I think the Fed will issue a frightened and a frightening statement tomorrow because no one has expected oil to rise to $90 per barrel 6 weeks after the September cut, and I still remember all the frightened talk about negative impact on economy that was going on when oil first reached $75. Such a rise in oil prices (and in other commodities) will result in increased inflation, and the Fed must aknowledge that. At the same time, the home sales and prices keep falling despite the 50bp cut, and so Fed must do more work to avoid a full-blown recession.

The above expectation have led me to open some shorts yesterday on CFC and BZH, which had a huge short covering last Friday and so should be falling even if the market has a neutral reaction to the Fed (since the long-term forces that were dragging these stocks down did not change).

And of course one must watch what actually happens tomorrow at 2:15 ET. If the Fed cuts 50bp, I will close my shorts. If the Fed does not cut at all, I will sell almost all my PM stocks. If the Fed cuts 25bp, I will do nothing, since PM stocks will keep going up (unless some profit-taking sets in) and CFC/BZH will keep going down.

I came around to realizing that Bernanke only cares about preventing another Great Depression. It was not coincidence that he was made Fed chair. Bernanke's graduate thesis was about the depression and he promised in his tribute to Milton Friedman on his 90th birthday: "Regarding the Great Depression: You're right, we (the Federal Reserve) did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again."

He will do everything he can to prevent the money supply from contracting. I view the rate decision through this lens.

In my opinion he will risk hyperinflation to avoid deflation.

I don't think the economic news will matter much. The economic fundamentals were good during the crash of '29. The crash itself depressed economic activity.

So the question in my mind is how scared Bernanke is. No one knows this - except HBB.

I was way wrong on the last rate decision because I didn't view it through this lens.

There's a natural human tendency following a large upmove to think that it must end and to obsess about a drop. I can't tell you how many people sold silver positions profitably when the Hunt's tried to corner the market at 8, 9, or 10 dollars (or even went short) and watched in horror as silver went to $50. Most pro traders feel that predetermining the extent of an upmove is folly. With the inflation we have and the dirth of rate paying investments the path of least resistance for stocks is higher.

If Bernanke had any chestnuts he'd actually raise rates which would solve our problems faster than this nonsense. Nothing short of massive dislocation of subprimers and house price deflation will bring about a brighter tomorrow.

shark- which is exactly why he might actually raise rates...

I wonder if the FED will take into account the planned price increases for the products of PG & CL? Increases btw 3-12% is no joke!

Dow Jones, Reuters
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)

P&G, Colgate Plan to Increase Prices
By ELLEN BYRON and ANJALI CORDEIRO
October 31, 2007

Pressured by high commodity costs, Procter & Gamble Co. and Colgate-Palmolive Co. said they would raise prices on consumer staples, even as the weaker dollar boosted their international results.

P&G's price increases will be particularly extensive, between 3% and 12% on goods including diapers, fabric softener and pet food. The maker of Tide and Pampers gave an anemic outlook for the current quarter, noting it was seeing some slowdown in the U.S. market as consumers are hit by high energy costs and the housing downturn.

What's changed since the last FED meeting?

List of What's Changed

* Perception has changed.
* Any perception of the Fed as being concerned about inflation went out the window.
* Any perception of the Fed as being concerned about the dollar went out the window.
* Bulls are happiest they have been in months.
* The stock market is higher.
* Gold is higher.
* Oil is higher.
* The Prime Rate dropped 50 basis points.

That's really about it. But what was the reason for the panic cut? Asset backed securities received no bids, the commercial paper market was in the dumps, and this all started with a mess in subprime mortgages that spread to mortgages in general, and foreclosures are now soaring. The jobs market is also very weak with huge mass layoffs by financial organizations.

List of What Hasn't Changed

* Mortgage Rates. (Actually mortgage rates rose since last week as the chart below shows).
* Auto Loan Rates. Nearly identical to last week.
* Home Equity Loan Rates. Nearly identical to last week.
* The outlook for jobs. (If anything the outlook is weaker judging from the Fed's panic).
* Credit Card Interest Rates.
* The foreclosures outlook did not change. It is still bleak.

http://tinyurl.com/2bz2fp

Hello to all in the Cara Community on the FedSpeak Eve.
Bill, Thanks for all you do and write. I am more aware of when and what to invest in as a result of this blog and all commentary. Still learning and listening as hard as i can when you "speak" here.
2_ave says to have a plan for the fed move. My plan is, I will hold the pm's, aru and wgdff, and other few commodities thru tomorrow. I plan on selling skf -the financials ultra short and rwm - the Russell short etf in the am. Actually planned on selling it today in the am but life got in the way!
My question is do you guys think the real estate short etf -SRS will fall also as a result of the rate cut as well? I am just not sure. Will a rate cut have a real, negative effect on the price of SRS?
Thanks for insight and comment
peace
Gray

Correction to prior post:

I meant Trade-Ideas, not TraderFeed!

Fun probability problem:

If you roll 3 dice, what is the probability that you will roll AT LEAST one 6?

I did not leap into leopard because I am not a leaping gnome.

Went to Saskatoon today to get an idea of just who they have running the show at GBN.V will have a write up sometime tomorrow.

Must leap into bed.

shark,
It is not so cut and dried that the Hunts tried to corner silver, though they did try to buy an awful lot of it. I know, the jury spoke and everyone knows it. But...

There are many, many sides to that story. Some things they did made no sense if they were trying to corner, and others looked pretty bad.

Here's two interesting things:

1. Gold spiked at the same time. According to Jack Schwager and others, it was due to uncertainty due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. But an identical spike in silver is due to the Hunts?

2. Oil spiked to inflation adjusted peak of nearly 100/barrel in the same 1979-80 time frame. Did they buy that too?

Also interestingly, Buffet supposedly acquired, by one account, 35% more silver than the Hunts. He was never charged with cornering and the market barely budged.

The Hunts did acquire a large interest in certain contract months, which is a tactic used by corners. But they freely negotiated agreements to take delivery later and to take deliveries alternate to COMEX bars, namely coins and other less desirable forms. Not the sign of a cornerer.

It's assumed that large amounts of delivery requests are a form of cornering. In fact, it has been admissible in court as evidence of cornering. However, silver always has a larger number of delivery requests than most (all?) other commodities, and is a primary method of acquiring large amounts.

I also learned from this book that there was at the time of the trial, and persisting until at least the time the book was written, no clear precise legal definition of a 'corner.'

If you can find a copy of this in your library, check it out. It's very dense and academic, but fascinating.

"Manipulation on Trial: Economic Analysis and the Hunt Silver Case"

I learned a lot about the case, about commodity cornering cases in general, and the pricing of all the elements of the silver complex. They are far more tightly integrated than I had expected, though it makes sense.

The book is about 90 bucks, so look in the library. And even here in NYC, the NYC library would not lend it. My firm librarian got me a copy of it from the Queens library, which does lend it.

I may buy my own copy of it one day, because my interest is pretty deep and I want a copy in my bookshelf. The bibliography alone is very useful. I copied it before I gave it back.

Yes, they were found guilty and were arrogant and underhanded in some ways. Their own worst witnesses, according to almost anyone who saw them testify. But there are definitely still some open questions.

Joey,

Thanks.

:-)

MoneyMarket NAV:

You know, when I was talking to Mr. John Smith of Fidelity yesterday, he mentioned the big discussions around the water cooler at work were about what would happen if the MM did nose dive and go below NAV of $1.00 and the title Armageddon was used to describe what was necessary for that to happen.

geckob, from your posting of what your heard from on high (with no title or name) beyond the desk clerk I talked to, made me think that you may very well work at FIDO; tell the truth ;)

Anyway, I note that FDRXX (MM) has lost a couple of points since this discussion started yesterday, now down to a 7-day yield of 4.93%, so I’m going to continue to keep my eye on it, informative posts above notwithstanding.

Regarding Fidelity...again. Gecko, were you told that your FDRXX was guaranteed? (FDIC was mentioned but it is SIPC). I ask, because I was told the same thing, and I told the fellow that his understanding was incorrect. He also told me the NAV would never go below zero. I also had to correct him. I then wrote a letter to customer service. I'm reasonably aware of this "stuff" and could separate fact from poor training. HOwever, I was very disconcerted by the lack of knowledge (which I've never experienced) by the person on the other end.

SIPC is protects your accounts up to $500K--the protection, just like FDIC, is for institutional failure. As I told the fellow, the MM discussion was market, not institutional, risk. I exited the conversation (with his still trying to tell me he was right) telling him he had told me everything I needed to know.

shark...

The odds are 1 in 2.

REUTERS Gold Fields shuts shaft after two workers killed [HJLRBBS]

JOHANNESBURG, Oct 31 (Reuters) - South Africa's Gold Fields said on Wednesday it had ceased blasting at its number 4 shaft at its Kloof mine for the rest of the day after two workers were killed in an accident.

(

Leisa, about a month ago I wrote a post detailing the differences between FDIC and SIPC and what's covered under a Money market. I will apologize here because yesterday was a typo. MM's, yes are covered under SIPC and not FDIC since they are securities - my error last night, too late and tired I suppose.

I was not guaranteed anything by Fidelity only what they would be prepared to do to support the $1 NAV. Words only nothing in writing though I believe them. Their customers are not only individuals but the bigger part of their business is supporting institutions and broker dealers, who use the same MM fund as you!. BD's have already did their due diligence on the risk in the MM accounts. If Fidelity didn't suport the NAV the implications would be deeper than just NAV loss. There are plenty of other clearing firms out there one could go to. I do not work for Fido or their parent National Financial.

Also, if you want to watch their 7-day yield just make sure you are comparing to other companies 7-day yields. Also make sure it's not the short term end of the curve that's affecting the yield.