It's great to find your daily commentary again, Bill. The futures were down big overnight, but have been creeping back up early today.

Given the results from AMZN and MER, I expect this will be an interesting day. I would add the disastrous report from CTX and the housing and mortgage data released today, but those no longer move the market as everyone except the insane are already braced for bad news.

I respect your take on the miners. I've been wary of re-entering given the weakness in the HUI chart.

Dark Pools:

"Recently, more than 20% of all trades in New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks have been funneled through these dark pools, up from just 3% to 5% two years ago, according to NYSE figures."

http://www.nysun.com/article/64598

and more Dark Pools:

"LiquidityHub, the bank-sponsored trading platform designed to facilitate access to interest rate swaps and US Treasuries went live yesterday with euro interest-rate swaps. "The battle for trading liquidity has seen the formation of numerous dark liquidity pools that allow transactions to take place on private inter-bank or intra-bank platforms, in competition with exchanges and other traditional marketplaces ... LiquidityHub's launch will help to facilitate deeper pools of liquidity in the market while leveraging the latest capabilities in electronic trading of fixed income products". [Paul J. Davies: "LiquidityHub launches swaps product", Financial Times].

http://www.liquidityhub.com/

Program trading way down:

http://tinyurl.com/yqt98x

RSI values for Cara 100: http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

Whew! You're back.

All the best,

G/S

2nd,

Welcome to the Outonalimb Club. Let's hope the PPT doesn't shake us out of the tree.

Good luck.

BH- i'm sure they'll try, but this is no daytrade, and not losing any sleep over it...

Bill,

You indicated the following:

$GOLD could drop -10 pct to (just a guess) $700. If so, there will be a basing period, where smart money will be accumulating positions in preparation for a subsequent run to over $1,000 per oz.

In what time frame do you believe this is going to happen? And if gold goes to $1000, are you implying the global and US economies are going to heat back up within this time frame...stoking inflation...thus pushing gold to $1000? Or, is gold going to be a flight to safety for a downturn in the US and global economies?

Thanks,
You are a great educational resource for all of us...

Who mentioned the BUY signal (RSI7 over 30) on WAG yesterday?
That was a great call.

TOMO 6.6 Bil one day repos this AM
Brings to $40Bil maturing tomorrow
-------------------------

We've tried it once or twice
And found it rather nice

Chorus:
Roll me over lay me down and do it again
Roll me over in the clover, roll me over lay me down and do it again

Hammer,
If you read the commentary again, Bill provides his timeline. I think he's implying fed cuts and falling USD trying to stoke the falling econ. which pushes gold. The economy will be tanking, thus the cuts in rates and flooding with liquidity.

Bill:
You've issued the warning in the last couple of days to watch for a decline in the short term for the pm miner stocks. Is it worth waiting to exit after an expected bump in pps when the Fed cuts on 10/31?

Long IVAN

I thought about this. Say the Fed doesn't cut on Halloween.
Then we would have a broad market sell off and PM's and miners would get that 10% haircut.

Not a high probability, but it could happen.

For those of you in Crystallex:

Thousands of students have clashed with police in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, during a protest against proposed constitutional changes. Full story here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7059309.stm

JogyP,

Thank you re WAG. Just Bill's system though. Monthly wasn't under 30, it was 31 and change for RSI 7 Monthly, but as Bill says, it's science and art! I'm still in my SRS that I posted about a couple weeks ago... got in at 81.20 I believe it was.

Bill,
Time to renew my many Thanks for your priceless help.

Before I found your blog the market crashed over me like a body surfer with really bad timing. I would ride the wave and the next moment find myself tumbled and planted head first in the sand.

Now I feel like I'm riding the market like a wave and my timing allows me to ride in relative safety. No head planting these days as I'm able to see the wave crest and pull out before the ride ends.

I can't Thank you enough.

Craig

it's a GSS Big Mac attack!!! Also I am beginning to hate UXG

Merril
s O'Neil says they STILL have illiquid assets.....

Has anyone factored in more than two shoes dropping? This thing looks to have multiple feet.

Are Paulson and others going to do anything to support the dollar near term? I was just looking at the $ chart on the Daily Report and it seems like it would be due for a bounce, out of mercy if nothing else.

Mom&Pop Stuff

GLD is not an ETF it does work off SPOT.

Not saying that most don't already know this but wanted to comb the cobwebs out.

Home sales and values continue to decline.

ARMs resetting daily.

Unemployment claims up.

Retail sales practically nonexistent.

Food & Fuel prices thru the roof.

Lenders scrambling to stay solvent.

NO Problem! Just "Hide in Tech".

Even though people can't afford their mortgage payment, food or fuel, they will always buy computers and electronic gadgets. They can always pry open their computers and eat the "chips". Just ask the HB&B if you don't believe it.

My IVAN trade is doing great.

I sold UXG and I will take this oppty to admonish myself in public. NEVER NEVER NEVER buy a stock that's in a downtrend no matter how bored and high you are.

A great deal of what happens to the stock market hinges on the outlook for the US economy and corporate earnings. There is, however, no economic variable on which there is more uncertainty than on the severity and length of the downturn in the US economy.

The question in short is: what are the chances of the US economy going into a recession (i.e. two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) over the next few months? Please click on the link below for my posting on the R topic.

http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/24/does-the-big-r-recession-lie-in-store-for-the-us/

shark- is it bored AND high, or bored OR high ;)

So further rate cuts...provides more liquidity...dollar will be supported? Surely not.

Wouldn't the rate cuts delay the tanking of the global economy and equity prices, and wouldn't the dollar continue to go down?

Just trying to makes sense of the causal effect of gold going to $1000. Will it be due to the inflationary effect of strong global growth, or will gold act as a safe haven during a major slowdown, or will it happen either way?

I think the Fed has room here to keep the US economy going while we work through the asset repricing. Eventually, we will see another leg up in growth in the US...

Am I an idiot?

ALOHA !!

I agree with Bill that POG will come down but I will say I believe this next correction will be deeper than a $57USD sell off. We are now at $757USD POG. I see a more severe correction to the $615USD range. Using the 5 and 10 year charts and the mean of the two upleg divergences brings a correction to the $595USD level. I do not think the next POG correction will go below $600USD but could come close. As Craig said the catalyst will be a hold on lowering interest rates Oct. 31. Make no mistake this is an epic battle between false money(fiat) and real money(gold). The global banks and global governments that are in bed with the banks derive their powers from debt allowed by fiat and they know this. They will employ whatever "fraudulent paper means" needed to win.

I also believe there would be a sell off in the general stock market that will take gold and silver with it, like Bill mentions. People are already liquidating their 401Ks via loans so selling gold/ETFs will come before that. Also the many layoffs in the financial sector and real estate and construction sector will now start hitting stocks since unemployment checks will not go far enough to fill the income loss. Then those that do find jobs will more than likely be taking hefty pay cuts. People will sell stocks to save their house payment. Unsecured debt like that of credit cards will be dropped like a hot potato under such circumstances. Compared to having a house a credit rating is expendable! All the new bankruptcy laws the banks passed won't do any good unless people file bankruptcy. If you skip out on your credit card payments and don't file bankruptcy and don't answer your phone then you can put credit card companies out on a limb indefinitely! Last I heard you can't go to jail for non-payment, perhaps the banks will change the laws once it gets epidemic and reinstate debtors prison! Unsecured debt is going out the window along with 401K loans. Inflation(meaning US government spending on Iraq, etc) and bank credit will fleece the Middle Class like never before. As my friend in Maine says, "We've been SIVed!" That's how fiat monetary systems work. Anyone who studies fiat monetary systems can easily see, based on past history, this is how it always ends up! Did anyone expect unlimited spending and mountains of debt to end any other way? It's expensive to be an Empire, just ask Rome and Moscow! Welcome to the USSA ...

You're getting what you voted for ...

List of Dark Pools for your Alerts...
http://www.google.com/alerts

Block board
Liquidnet - Independent, H2O platform for independent investors, Seth Merrin
Sigma X - Goldman Sachs
VortEx
Block Alert - Merrill Lynch
MatchPoint - NYSE, Jim Ross
Liquidity Ping
PositNow
Continuous Cross
Pin
Opening Cross
Posit Match
BIDS - BAC, BSC, CS, DB, JPM, NITE - Tim Mahoney
ACE - ITG, Citigroup
Pipeline Trading - Independent
NYFIX
CrossStream

"Purveyors of dark pools, also known as alternative trading systems, have taken a small investment in technology, as little as $20 million, and produced a business, that in the case of that Liquidnet trade, will produce $20,000 in fees, or 2 cents a share. "

http://tinyurl.com/3cswju

I can see why program trading would be going down, if all of these "not in a million years" events keep happening.

No dollar will not be supported. Rate cuts are to support falling mkt which weakens dollar further abd gold goes higher.

The more the econ weakens the more Fed cuts the higher gold goes.

Gold is the safe haven from falling fiat currencies.

How can you know? What assets, what did they buy/loan at, and where will those unknown assets fall to? What does the Fed have to fix interbank liquidity based on unknown assets of unknown (falling) value? You're kidding, right?

If you *THINK* you KNOW, then I'll leave the semantics to you.

USO just went vertical.

Fransix -

Thanks for your thorough and well-stated perspective on GBN.V. It's onto my watchlist! And at 5AM! My brain just doesn't respond at 5AM ! LOL

because of this
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071024/oil_prices.html?.v=13

Should we buy on news? I wish I had kept my $43 USO stock. I could have been driving around with free gas for the next few years. :)

C.Note:

I think you meant that GLD is not based on an index. It is an ETF. The following from ETF Connect:

streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF (GLD)

The investment objective of the Trust is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion less the expenses of the Trust's operations. The Shares are designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in gold.

Gold Shares represent fractional, undivided beneficial ownership interests in the Trust, the sole assets of which are gold bullion, and, from time to time, cash. Gold Shares are intended to lower a large number of the barriers preventing investors from using gold as an asset allocation and trading tool. These barriers have included the logistics of buying, storing and insuring gold. In addition, certain pension funds and mutual funds do not or cannot hold physical commodities, such as gold, or the derivatives.
----------

Incidentally the bullion is held by HSBC(USA) as custodian for the Trust, which is in turned wholly owned by the World Gold Council.

From the WGC website:

Founded in 1987, the World Gold Council is an organisation formed and funded by the world's leading gold mining companies with the aim of stimulating and maximising the demand for, and holding of, gold by consumers, investors, industry, and the official sector.

The Council's Chief Executive Officer is James E Burton, former CEO of the California Public Employees' Retirement System. Its Chairman is Pierre Lassonde, the President of Newmont Mining Corporation.

Our members are leading gold mining companies with production in 22 countries.

Yes Bill you warned, and I have been busy selling all morning, except my puts. I have never had so much sitting in cash. Thank you.

ok I'm out of IVAN.....nice day though.

black wednesday is upon us...

2nd- Nice play on the QID.
I added to DUG and SMN

"If, as and when a pull-back occurs, you ought to look for consistency across the miners and the oil companies, and the related commodity prices."

If that means all in a consistent pullback, no consistency yet. XLE still holding up amidst the carnage.

With the number of NYSE New Highs minus New Lows negative again, our call for substantial equity market weakness in the 4th quarter is back in play. A major sell-off, if it does occur would lead to a fantastic buying opportunity for stocks, with the low to be reached over the next 3-6 weeks.

Visit our website at http://www.2globalmarkets.com for our March 2007 research report describing why the market could sell off. Click on the "Contact Us" tab and send us an email to receive our target low for the S&P 500 index.

2nd,

SKF up nearly $5.00. Nice timing, guy.

Jock:

"Thanks for your thorough and well-stated perspective on GBN.V. It's onto my watchlist! And at 5AM! My brain just doesn't respond at 5AM ! LOL"

Yes, GBN.V is one to be watched. I watched it for about a year when following Tyler Resources, a copper play. Tyler held one of the deposits and was bought out by GBN.V. My plan was to invest in the junior gold sector as metals prices and oil would eventually come off.

The idea is to invest in a small, sustainable mining project in the gold sector with the possibility of growth, though I thought I could take profits a lot sooner out of the trade and move into something else.

If the gold price is to continue in its bull market into stage III, then eventually a company like this will be overwhelmingly profitable.

I heard Seymour Shulich speak at McGill University yesterday. He spoke briefly about his recent book Get Smarter (all proceeds going to charity; he has endowed over $200million over his life) which outlines his views on business and the future. I took the opportunity to ask him a few questions. He indicated that he believes Canada and China will make it though any tough economic times ahead, but that the US will go through great difficulties, not now, but in the next generation. He believes Canada's commodities, highly desired by China, will sustain it. He thinks Canada is doing great for a G7, even with less-than-ideal leadership, and that with different leadership we will do even better. He believes young people going into business in Canada can do well, and mentioned Saskatchewan (!) as a growth-oriented place to live. He comes across as colourful, opinionated, thoughtful, and has a strong wish to mentor young people going into business via his book. He would likely be a great candidate for this community, but I do not get the feeling he would be a regular contributor; I think the book will be his legacy. He is also toying with working on another one for older folks. He will not be appearing in the US to promote his book. I have read it; it is a quick and easy read, and does contain a fair number of useful nuggets, although many will be familiar to this experienced group. Nice to hear his projections on trends. He is (naturally) for gold, including holding some physical, but says that oil is where he has made most of his money, and that we are entering into an era of ultra-scarce oil.

RobBoss:

GLD reflects the price of Bullion with a few fees as you mentioned. The current price of Bullion is stated by the Spot price. There you have it. Thus not exactly an ETF as in GDX with a variety of Gold miners with individual problems, hedges, successes and losses.

Hello,

Is anyone TRADING
QID today?? I'm averaging @$35.50 something. Out of miners and all else.TIA

Thank you Bill Cara and all on this blog for the guidance and insights. I feel so much more confident in my decisions with all your help. Bill you are truly generous and so giving. Thank you.

Bill.... Thank you very much for your 10:49 AM
post today. I found it EXTREMELY helpful! I do have a few questions maybe you or someone in the group could help me with.

1)"The Gold price will have to go well over $800, however, before the operating margins pick up to a point where the shares become attractive again, so my inclination is to buy the bullion at that point."

Q1:Are you saying to buy bullion between when it hits bottom [possibly @ $700/oz] and $800/oz...then buy mining shares above $800/oz?

Q1a: Other than using the ETF:GLD...how else would you buy bullion other than out right ownership of the metal itself?

2)In regards to junior explorers: I know a few like UXG,NAK... but is there a list some where that seperates them from the rest of the miners out there?

3)"In any event, you have to be watching the companies that are actively drilling and sending their drill core for assays.
Traders who have their eyes and ears close to the market will catch wind of the new discovery holes, and the traders who are quick to pull the Buy trigger will have large profits. "

Q:How does someone get wind of such info. I check web sites and watch here in the group but the news seems to ancient history by the time I hear about it?

I know these might appear to be basic questions, but a month ago I probably wasn't even sure what to ask. So my learning curve because of you and everyone else here has gone as they say "Parabolic".

Thanks!

2nd_ave

your opinion if you would..........

Yesterday I set myself up nicely with shares in QID & SDS and of course today I am doing extremely well. My question is when do you guys bail out and take profits? I know you can't predicts tops or bottoms but when do you sell and not get slaughter for staying too long.

thanks!

LOL!
I'm uncharacteristically holding QID/SDS/DUG.

Bill do you mind checking with Randall and Ray of WGI for an update? No recent news on the leach pad building, pre stripping or a potential acquisition with their new found money from the latest financing. An update would be nice.

Thanks for all you do.
tom

Hammer1: You said "I think the Fed has room here to keep the US economy going while we work through the asset repricing. Eventually, we will see another leg up in growth in the US"...

Yes a viable theory and alternative to the smash and crash one. If the market does not correct as many are expecting it will be due to intervention and an ongoing fed policy and psycology of said Bernake put. No one really knows which one in the short term will win out though probabilities seem higher with what Bill is callng for. Remember Fat tails late in Bull markets.

Isaiah,
If I were trading QID today instead of holding I would have tried to sell at the height of RSI/stoch as macd graph started to roll over.
Hopefully around 35.85 or so.

I use a 1 min chart over 1 to 4 hours (depending on how much price range/history I want) on day trades.

Bill..........

Count me in [i.e. the report].

How do I sign up?

Anyone have a comment, concern or suggestion re: metals fund "Midas ( MIDSX )" ? thanks in advance.

Looks like WAG is the safe haven today. Up 2.56%

Doesn anyone think DFS is a good idea here?
Down 30% since IPO and looks cheap compared to MA and AXP.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=MA

Geckojb,
How do we know what the fed has ammo for if we don't know the asset loss they have to counteract? While viable, is it a likely scenario given that even those currently admitting losses have MORE losses they expect to announce in future quarters?

Eventually we will see many more up legs to U.S. growth, the question, as always, is the timeline.

Craig.......

Thanks! I'll be watching the graph today closely.

Isaiah,
If you look at the chart you can see it rolled over at about 11:23. Now it's turning back up.

Now, (since I'm holding and not trading) I defend profits/prevent loss by using a stop factoring in fees, etc. So I don't take a loss but I can let it wander w/o worry. If it stops out, no problem. If the Q's tank and QID runs, I'm good. I make money no matter what.

Isaiah,
If I were trading QID today instead of holding I would have tried to sell at the height of RSI/stoch as macd graph started to roll over.
Hopefully around 35.85 or so.

I use a 1 min chart over 1 to 4 hours (depending on how much price range/history I want) on day trades.

Posted by: Craig at October 24, 2007 12:04 PM

Craig,Isaiah

My TD Ameritrade has no charts for ETF/ QID. Do you have a link for where I can get to see what you're talking about ??
TIA

Bill,
What is the status of Cara Asset managemnt services and Cara Mutual Funds? Seem to remember October having been mentioned as a launch date?

Thanks,

jvo

IMF head says dollar could suffer abrupt fall

http://tinyurl.com/356frh

Craig, I think the thing you don't want to do now is set yourself up to have to be right here. I think many were surprised by the magnitude of a silly .50 basis cut had to begin with. Don't underestimate the power of psychology.

Just because we think something should happen doesn't mean that it will happen. Psychology plays an important role here and if people believe the Fed has their back, even if it's magic pixie dust they are blowing then so be it. We are fairly smart here and all ahve similar beliefs but nobody here has been able to call tops or bottoms as far as I know.

I just am not understanding the hard line thinking that stocks must go down. Just so you know and someone doesn't accuse me of being a disillusioned bull - I am currently "personally" positioned defensively but not to the extent that I need to be right. I believe like many in mean reversion and everything else that's said here pretty much.

I have been lightening up on stocks for past 6 months and have continued to sell into rallies. I will still hold no less than 30-50% stocks and possibly hedge against that as I am curerntly with URPIX. Anything less is such a market timing call I am not willing to make. I don't feel any need to be the smartest guy in the room by picking tops and bottoms. Don't have the time to day trade the market and I am happy picking a trend I think will develop over the next 1-2 years and letting it play out. Again nobody knows about the next day or week.

Probably more than what was requested in your response but I have had some of these issues I wanted to get out.

Craig,

We do not know, but Ben is probably beginning to get an idea of "what is out there" from all of the info he is pulling in.

I guess we will need to judge this by what he does. If he continues to cut more aggressively, there might be more out there then we think. That might be bearish.

If he cuts say only .25, that might indicate the US will be able to handle the asset repricing.

At this point I think the less aggressive he is the better...

Just a thought...

Try Yahoo.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=QID

isaiah- craig offered one possible exit point=before the next potential rate cut next wednesday...other than that, once the trend changes->why not stay with it...

Craig .....

Just curious if it is not too personal....

What kind of trail limit or stop limit spread do you usually use on something like this?

2nd_ave

I think that's what I do....stay with it until the winds blow the other way. Hopeful they won't be hurricane force but a nice breeze at first.
:-)

Geckojb,
Thank you for the comprehensive answer.

I agree, we need to be positioned for several scenarios. I'm a bit sore from sitting on this fence but I'm a bit more short than long and so far all is well.

I'm currently watching Wilbur Ross on Bloomberg explain how we are YEARS away from the bottom of this mortgage reset problem. He is explaining how we have option ARMS resetting in 2009.

The problem is I think Wilbur is telling the truth and I don't trust Ben any further than I can throw him.

We should be talking about this for some time.

Is the spike in gold tied to "The head of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo Rato, warned Monday of a potential "abrupt fall" in the US dollar that could roil the global economy."

follow-up to our previous post: since the mid-1960s, U.S. recessions have lasted between 6 and 16 months. If the peak of the business cycle occurs this month, then historical precedent suggests the recession would end between Mar08 and Jan09. The trough in stock prices usually occurs 2 to 6 months BEFORE the recession trough...

Isaiah,
Since I'm playing with 2nd and letting it run, I set a stop to prevent loss. So I use my entry price plus fees and a little extra if I get a buffer like today. Then as it moves up I move my stop up.

Someone posted a link or story on setting stops previously, hopefully they will do it again.

This is the art part. My opinion? I follow rule #1, don't lose money. So IMO all profits are good. Once I sell I forget about what happens afterward unless I can profit from it again.

Craig..
"I follow rule #1, don't lose money. So IMO all profits are good."

Darn good rule...can't argue with that!

"Once I sell I forget about what happens afterward unless I can profit from it again."

I like this one.... especially the "forget about what happens" portion. I really need to incorporate this one. Too many times I kick myself for selling early. Then there are the times when I kick myself for not selling at all. I'm learning...and fast.

Thanks for all your input today.

Franco-Nevada IPO may fetch $1-billion

Pierre Lassonde and Seymour Schulich

http://tinyurl.com/ytf7ps

Uranium

I know its hard to think of buying in this environment, but as I've noted before Uranium has been tick up lately and now I'm noticing that USU is moving up as well...something to keep an eye on, since the POU (to borrow from kaimu) has been depressed for almost 16-17 months now...I'm buy USU here a little bit...

Isaiah,
Fair disclosure: I'm an amatuer and still learning just like you.

There are professionals and other more experienced trader/investors reading and responding to this blog that can offer you the best advice, not to mention Bill and the wealth of info at the top of the page.

So I admit to breaking rule #1 sometimes, well, a lot really. But then I have to fall back to rule #2, cut losses quickly. I don't stay if a trade is turning against me. It's a trade and if I didn't get it right then it isn't right and that's my exit.

If it's more long term, like the position in TM i'm playing with, then I use anywhere from 6 to 10% stop loss from the basis.

It all depends on your own personal situation and tolerance for red.

And disclosure #2, sometimes I sell and the stock doubles, like PTR did. I notice that.....
Mostly because I'm 100% off. That's not good.

MER look like a good safe short as well...anyone shorting MER?

Canadian Business Week of October 22, has an article on Seymour Schulich of Franco-Nevada fame. He published a book in August, "Get Smarter, Life and Business Lessons". Very Impressive. Thanks for the heads up Bill!

onlineaces, yes, bought puts on it. It has a long way to go I think (at least until Wednesday...). Of course I could be completely wrong.

I am just wondering if we are being set up for another .50 cut and another major spike up.

im sure alot of the gold bugs here check out
jsmineset.com,

i was curious what some of you guys think about
Mr. Sinclair's thesis that this reccession and sub-prime mess will result gold skyrocketing,
taking most gold shares with it.

im concerned that gold kees going up yet the XGD in candad and the XAU are not making similiar highs and may get dragged down with the market in the event of a sell off.

any thoughts appreciated.

It is a little late for a short on Merrill. The better risk reward IMO is in the energy or techs as these are the last pillars holding the market up. Chances are they will crumble soon, like Schlumberger did as few days ago. DUG and QID seem to have made bottom that define risk for this trade.

The next Fed cut may not have much affect if we go below S&P 1475, which is the level of the last cut, as some faith in the Fed is lost.

The only surprise on Fed action is either them "not cutting" or what's in the statement. A fed cut is already in the cards.

I think it's reasonable that there statement will be similar to the last or at very least not offer info to spook the markets therefore if you're trading the fed decision you're really trading on a cut larger than .25 or none at all. Those seem to me to have the greatest impact on psychology.

Just my thinking.

so hard to keep any legit stops with this whipsawing...SiO2 good luck w/u'r put...I think u'll do well if u got a good entry...

RE: USU

I am not really comfortable with this company. As an enrichment company, they don't really have much correlation to the spot price of uranium. Their technology is widely considered outdated and their hopes are pinned on the American Centrifuge project which is a very long-term and uncertain plan. Granted the stock has been beaten mercilessly, but the USU outlook is murky. Maybe for a day trade........

Somebody defended SP 1490 like no tomorrow.

BillySundance RE: USU
ditto

UUU just busted above its 50 DMA (11.67), now at 11.74.

Panic buying is apparently because of rumor of 50 basis point surprise rate cut coming. Doesn't sound likely to me but who knows.

riding this BDK wave up with 25 cent stop

been really strong since they reported

With Sundance & razor on this one.

I've traded USU successfully in the past. Sold my last position around April. I didn't like the changing fundamentals and will continue to stay away as they face some heavy headwinds.

Today's move related to Korea deal.

http://tinyurl.com/2b4os4

Raised stop on QID 2% and got stopped out 5 min later - small gain. However made more net $ on calls yesterday.

Too jumpy for me to reload today -or maybe ever. :)

Bill
Had a very interesting time at the Gold Show.. You can tell the respect that you have earned in the industry buy the way the players respond to you. He was nice enough to take a group of us around in tow and to meet some of the stalwarts in the game. A few thing stand out.
-Bill's opening line to us was something of the sort "realize all these people are here to sell you something" take everything with a grain of salt and try to unearth the truth (as much of there is of it out there)
-don't be afraid to ask these people the hard questions, put them on the line.
-Bill's idea of having a Cara 100 penny dreadfuls is brillant, probably the only way a group can really stay on top of these plays
-we need to follow the money
-we need to question everything first
-most will never get off the ground
More than anything I loved the real life stories,
Thanks for taking the time to show us around.

chas -

BDK reports tomorrow; so I don't think the strength is earnings related. Last week's buyback maybe...

Telestar3d -

I agree. Also whoever tried to push the market to support had eyes too big for his stomach and has been getting rolled back. I guess that the new bullish tell for stock is oil moving toward highs.

JML

kaimu,

still calling for $600 POG I see. How long has this call been on for?

your scenario sounds like recession/depression which would hurt the USD and likely all fiat currencies relative to gold. IMO, a more likely scenario is that the broad stock market gets pulled down, gold follows due to simple trading actions caused by the need to liquidate ALL assets in accounts, then when that false selling is over, the price of gold rises as the dollar collapses due to massive government spending with much lower tax revenue. The price of gold will bottom right around the day that community members here are saying "I told you so, $600 here we come!". Then the last holders will be out and gold will rocket upwards. All this is mute if we hear of a derivative blow up at some large hedge fund / HB&B...then gold will simply launch itself without going lower first.

It will be interesting to see if you are eventually correct.

Buy weakness, sell strength...

jumble,

right, buyback announcement is what i meant

Rumor of FOMC's unscheduled meeting and emergency discount rate cut seems to be today's catalyst for the partial reversal. So the fact that the Fed is forced into action by dysfunctional credit markets is STILL perceived as a positive by the market. Not a dead bull yet, but darn if that's the medicine it needs to hold a key support, we gonna need to drop back to 1% Fed funds by year end to hold the averages here...

JML

Jim Rogers: U.S. "undoubtedly in recession"

http://tinyurl.com/3xogn7

He again opines China is not a bubble yet.
**********************************************
On another front, been thinking about the impact of the So. Cal fires on the Cal economy and national impact.
**********************************************
Thanks for the insights Bill. Sitting on a ton of cash after some sales this week.

Well I stopped out of a portion of QID with a profit, but reloaded again near the PM low.

How sad that a "rumor" is required to push this dog and pony show. Just sad.

Why would anyone with half a brain believe a rumor of an early fed cut within a week of the regular meeting? If they needed to do that the market is in way-deeper immediate trouble than anyone thinks and all would/should sell off.

I wondered what was making PM's and miners go.
GDX would have been a nice trade from down over 3% to up half a point.

Crazy day.

Wow - AKAM back down to a 30 handle after their report this afternoon.

I think that a lot of the talk about the market reversal being due to a "emergency FOMC meeting rumor" is just mumbo-jumbo. Media outlets need to tailor their content to serve their audience.

There is a reason you never see major market headlines like:

"Market makes intraday rebound as long-term plummet of US dollar brings cash rich foreigners to the table"

or

"Market rebounds as S&P 500 succesfully tests 1490 support level"

People want an explanation for short term events that can't be explained so easily. Take it with a grain of salt.

moneyg...

I have amtd and can get qid charts and quotes no problem... just enter the ticker QID

Junior Stock Evaluation.

Bill mentions above to take a look at some junior exploration companies.

BUT

As BernardF, MikeNY and Bill have said, the Junior companies are out their promoting themselves shamelessly big time. Most of them will never hit a home run. So how do you choose amongst all the great sounding stories?

Well I try and stay away from the companies that are dreaming. They may have a land package and some nice graphics showing targets. But I stay away from these unless they actually have something concrete. ie. actual drill results that show there is actually something there.

So I decided to create this spreadsheet to help others learn and put some discipline into their trading. It is set up for valuation and due diligence.

The problem is that it takes a git of work to put all the information in.

I therefore suggest you do a quick screening of your stocks to find out the 2 or 3 most prospective. You should then do your detailed due diligence using the spreadsheet to ensure a disciplined approach and then make our investment based on an objective valuation rather than gut feel.

To screen your stocks, I suggest you look at stocks with drill results that show that the company is on to something. Look at their website and see if they have an ultimate target for the size of a resource they are targeting. If this information is not available, then ring the company IR person and ask them.

Then take the deposit size ( eg for PMV.V 4 million oz of gold) and calculate the in-situ metal value ( eg 4 Mozn x $700/oz = $2.8 Billion) Then assume the ultimate stock value could be worth 10% of this (eg $280 million). Then divide by # of fully diluted shares (eg $280 million / 87 million shares = $3.21/share).

Then look at how this compares to the existing stock price. In this case PMV.V is trading at $0.26 and the target price is $3.21 if they can prove up 4 million oz. So you compare this to other stocks and create a short list to do further due diligence on. The due diligence will give you an idea of how much risk there is in the company achieving their target and the share price achieving your target.

Fransix, Why not fill out the spreadsheet for GBN.V and share the results with us.

I am reposting my recent post on FV.V that I used as an example for the spreadsheet.

Mikede, please note that there are different tabs along the bottom for different sheets.

Junior Mine Stock Evaluation.
Please see the link to the spreadsheet for an evaluation of Firestone ventures, a junior mining company.
http://www.mediafire.com/?4lmdzj0xacb
I have added 2 new lines in the Due Diligence section. The first is a line to check to see if there are any ABCP issues with their finances. The second is a check for insider trading to determine if insiders are buying or selling. Thanks to Kaimu for these suggestions that he made a long time ago and I have been using since.
Note that this is not an endorsement for Firestone Ventures. I did own them and still think they have great potential, but did sell them recently to have more cash in my portfolio.

Aussieontop -

Thanks for all your work on the spreadsheet. It will help alot of us !

Your position on GIX, plus their impressive management (at the show) had me ready to pounce.

And then Peter Grandich had to go and recommend it on BNN, and drive the price up 20%. It's up again today. Good Call ! -

Sold the last of my Freewest (FWR) today. Now have no holdings in McFauld's Lake companies. Will reload in NOT, BMK, FNC and FWR if they come back 50%, 60%, 40% and 20% respectively.

Jock,

This is also helping me. I do this valuation stuff in my head all the time, but in the past I have not been disciplined enough to do the due diligence. Also I tended to just jump in when I saw a good valuation compared to existing price.

What I am learning now is that, yes it may be a good buy, but there are often others around that are better. So now I have consolidated a lot of my stocks into the few that i know really well and have a lot of confidence in.

IMHO

During last weekend's G-7 meeting, the group wanted to include a statement about the dollar's alarming drop in value but the US vetoed the idea. Paulson reiterated the old tired mantra of belief in a strong dollar.

Further Fed rate cuts should fuel the downward spiral of the dollar against most currencies. This should fuel further rises in oil,gold and commodities. If the downward spiral of the dollar gets disorderly, the Fed and BOJ may try to interveen to re-establish order but will probably find that negative psychology abroad will render their moves impotent. I suspect only a rise in interest rates can restore order and cause a rise in demand for the dollar. Rising exports are not enough to push the dollar higher.

Prior to a rise in rates, hyperinflation or stagflation is likely to prevail with gold rising to new heights.Is there enough juice in rate cuts to keep stock markets stable and rising? We wait and watch.

Perhaps policy makers want to destroy the dollar.... then introduce the Amero...loping a few zeros off the dollar during the conversion...fleecing the sheep once again.

Saving the dollar would probably require Volker like medicine of high interest rates and balanced Federal spending which is suicidal for the US Government. All ponzi schemes come to an end sooner or later.

Got Gold?

wow AKAM back at $33, I guess someone changed their mind

Cara 100 RSI table: http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html.

"Panic buying is apparently because of rumor of 50 basis point surprise rate cut coming. Doesn't sound likely to me but who knows."

Wanna bet that rumor turns out to be bogus?

People following this closely speculate this was orchestrated by a hedge fund. There was a ton of buying just before the email in question got sent out. The position was closed at the end of the day.

Fair and impartial markets indeed. Contact the SEC at encorcement@sec.gov and demand they investigate.

Sorry, without the dot at the end. Cara 100 RSI table: http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

number2son -

What puzzles me is how such a news would spur bullish sentiment. After 3+ months of festering crisis, a Fed move so close to a scheduled meeting ought to be of concern, not a cause for renewed buying. Unless the shorts got scared b/c so far the bull remains in charge...

JML

Hi, dr. cosa -

Just wanted to provide a contrary view. I think that Jim Sinclair is correct in that we will see a hyperinflationary episode.

But he is transfixed by visitations of a figure wearing traditional hawaiian garb with a pineapple on his head. Yes, "the big kahuna." His website is a great source of information, but he has been wrong in the past about good trading strategies in a crunch.

My thesis is that we are in a deflationary boom, and that central banks mistakenly liquified the system, when they should have instead allowed things to run their course.

We are in a situation not unlike the late 19th century where they had a deflationary boom and then a chronic longterm recessionary period. In that period, there was a gold rush.

In the short term, we can see the Yen in a rising seasonal influence, while the $US is in a declining seasonal influence. And Gold is now at the end of its seasonal correction.

So I expect gold to eventually see its runup.

This prediction not too bad, all considered:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/predict_gold.png

The best place to go for charts on this subject?

http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php

***********Stock Update**********

GSX has made an inauspicious candle pattern the past 2 days and is a buy only on a severe correction or if oil is 90 bucks when we wake up and the Turks have declared war on Iran.

IVAN was my play today. I like it long as a big mover in here just looking to get back in cheap on an oil drop, or hopefully to shake some fruit loose from the tree as I did today if oil is up tomorrow.

UXG I was a loser to sell this today. It was early and It was dumb and I shouldn't have done it. Now I'm sorry I sold it. I will try to get back in at double the size when/if the setup's ideal and make the money back in spades. I like to make money back on the same stock when possible.

VGZ also looks promising.

QID- wow, what a snapback...right back to where i started this morning...i'm open to being totally wrong, but not conceding anything yet..

Sign of the Times--Foreclosure suit filed against glitzy bar and eatery

Oct 24 2007 (Crain’s) — Mutual Bank has filed a foreclosure lawsuit to collect more than $10.7 million in construction financing on the Entourage on American Lane, a glitzy bar and restaurant near Woodfield Mall, where cocktails can cost up to $95.

Guess they didn't serve enough cocktails!

Gildan, Inmet, Uranium One to join S&P/TSX 60 index

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2461068720071024?rpc=44

Sunday - Bloomberg article on glut of oil tankers and plummeting rates.

Monday - WSJ cover article on how tight dry bulk shiping is worldwide, and how the Baltic Dry is at an all time high. Parabolic, actually, when I looked at the chart.

Today - Shipping.Capitallink.com:

100% of dry shipper stocks are down, most quite significantly.

50% of oil shippers are up

Any questions?

PS Everyone needs to read Todd Harrison's column on Marketwatch today. In my opinion.

http://tinyurl.com/2voj9k

mg- "Is anyone TRADING
QID today?? I'm averaging @$35.50 something."

thoughts:

personally, i think that's one hell of a basis...never hurts to have an opening basis lower than 99% of holders ;)

recall you jumped out of DUG early last week, and that will unavoidably color your trading with QID...although only you will know how and how much ...

short answer to your doubts can be found in bill's response to my doubts last saturday:

[market direction? Why say, "no one really knows, of course..." ??!
With respect 2nd_ave, it is obvious to me.
Posted by: Bill Cara at October 20, 2007 10:56 AM]

kudos to geckojb for a cold water splash ("the thing you don't want to do now is set yourself up to have to be right here") at the height of negativity (1231pm)..

big gains never come easily->what's your target? if it's 37 then it hit your target today and you're out...if it's 57 then you need to be comfortable with a little downside...if it's 77 then you're ready for serious volatility and today's action hasn't caused a stir yet...

good luck..

JML- "What puzzles me is how such a news would spur bullish sentiment."

James DePorre's take: "Market Rebounds on Wishful Thinking, Buy Program
4:57 PM EDT
The bulls rush back on rumors of some Fed aid after an earlier bout of ugly selling." Sorry, no access to body of commentary, maybe someone else does...

just clicked on a 10-day chart for QQQQ- that's about as even a battle between bulls/bears as i've seen...

2nd_ave:
Market Rebounds on Wishful Thinking, Buy Program
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor

If you look just at the Dow and the S&P 500, it looks like a rather uneventful day, as both indices were close to unchanged. The reality is that we had some real drama.

After a batch of poor earnings reports last night and worse-than-expected existing-home sales, we were on the slippery slope to the lows we saw this past Friday.

But just as we were about to take out the lows of the day, a massive buy program hit, and rumors started spreading that the Fed was on the verge of another surprise cut in the discount rate.

The Fed later denied anything was going on, but the bounce had gained some traction. Shorts were scurrying to lock in gains while they had them, and the bulls who are convinced this market is never going to suffer a sustained downtrend again rushed back in.

Although the senior indices ended up flat, the Nasdaq was down about 0.9% on a number of poor earnings in the technology sector. Overall breadth was still quite poor, with 2,100 advancers to 4,000 decliners.

Oils and gold lead to the upside, while semiconductors were hit hard. That is not the sort of leadership we expect to see in a healthy market.

So where do we go from here? The chaotic action today destabilizes things and tends to lead to further chaos. Investors become unsettled when we are whipped around so suddenly, and then tend to act more impulsively. That makes it hard to trust any move.

The big positive this market has going for it is the FOMC meeting next week. As we saw today, this market is quick to get excited at just a rumor of possible Fed action. That is a potent driving force, and the shorts will have to consider it as they look at entry points. Have a good evening. I'll see you tomorrow.

END

After spending two days at the Toronto gold show, I'm rushing to meet a publishing deadline tonight. I am going to post my thoughts like many of the other participants -- hopefully tomorrow.

More examples of the media stuffing bad advice down people's throats:

At this link you will see a Faux News episode discussing real estate in 2006, and panelists predictions for 2007. You will see Peter Schiff accurately describe every single thing that happened in 2007 as the market tanked. In response, yuou will see the panelists scoff at Schiff, insinuate he is an idiot or crazy, and shout him down to the point where I think they become genuinely angry at what he is saying.

Fascinating.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoZV5jt9puc

At this link from Aug 17, on a clip from Cavuto on business, you will see the 'Bulls' all push 'the financials' on viewers, because they are such 'bargains.' You will see Peter Schiff accurately describe exactly why they are NOT bargains and in fact are terrible investments. In return, he is scoffed and just about called an idot. Especially by one of the smartest morons in the public financial arena, Ben Stein.

The part where Stein calls Merril an "ASTONISHINGLY well run company" is a real hoot.

Equally fascinating.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XtQoZAqjc8&

Hi MikeNYC,

You beat me to posting those links. I got Peter's newsletter today as well. Boy, does this illustrate just how much BS is on those shows or WHAT? Pure poison. I never watch the stuff....

Finding bad sectors on a disk is Computer repair 101. A scanning program in analysis mode can find them for you automatically in one go, without touching the disk.

Sometimes you can recover stuff from bad sectors, sometimes not.

Suggestion, though expensive: Tell them not to touch it and then bring it to data recovery specialist. You will pay a lot more, but you will get someone who knows that they are doing in data recovery. And they will be better equipped to get stuff off the bad sectors, if it's possible.

"your point 2nd_ave?" trying to prevent m-genie from second-guessing herself, and waiting a few weeks would be a little late...

why don't i back-light the discussion with my response to yours from saturday:

"market direction? Why say, "no one really knows, of course..." ??!

With respect 2nd_ave, it is obvious to me."

thanks...sometimes big decisions hinge on conversational points (or affirmations) like that one...toyed with the idea of going 100% (actually, 200%) short last night and racking up the gains of a lifetime...

this blog has provided some of the best coaching and support for contrarian investors out there...reminds me a little of the voices that emerged in the sixties which went on to revolutionize music and writing...whereas here we have a nascent "anti-establishment" blogging community trying to even the playing field for investors...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at October 20, 2007 12:34 PM

bobj- thanks...

mg- why don't you try flipping the august 16 panic sell upside down and overlay the panic buying taking place now...it took a good two weeks for KGC and SLW to shake off the funk and turn up...why not give your current position the same benefit of the doubt...

Don't forget to buy Apple Care Protection with the new Apple.

Peter Schiff has a real desire for quarrels, television is filled with that kind of thing. He fits right in.

The extent to which sheer egomania is gripping market pundits is the extent to which nobody knows exactly which way things will go, and people are apprehensive of the future.

They say markets are controlled by fear on the one hand and greed on the other, but in reality, these emotions come at the same time.

Just as many defend with vitriol the Fox News version of reality as if they were the latest Christopher Hitchens, but does anybody really want to see the complete collapse into hyperinflation of the world's reference currency, or even the Yen?

Do people really have the slightest inkling what it would mean if there is disintermediation, or if the Yuan gets bumped from its peg?

That they are still viciously arguing over house prices in the midst of the credit collapse shows the extent to which the credit markets are ignored and people's reliance on credit is questioned. Its like telling them they can't drive a car.

aussieontop
Thanks for the spreadsheet (and instructions on how to use for me )
I was with Jock when we talked to GIX booth
They are comparing their San Agustin Mine
to the Penasquito Mine (which was bought out)
They used these numbers
Penasquito Sulphide Resrves Years 1-6
0.38 g/tAU, 25.4g/tAG, 0.29%PB, 0>57ZN
San Agustin Section 550EB Average
0.71g/tAU,10.8g/tAG, 0.14%PB, 0.62%ZN
We spoke with President and VP Corp Communication
They are reallly pleased with Mexico and would like to find other opportunity there. I found them very realistic without the over blown promtion. They said it is low grade but lots to tonnage. I think they may have something good here.

MikeNYC thanks for sharing the videos...

2nd, Bill and all,

Thank you. Thank you.

Hope you'll watch this.

http://tinyurl.com/3c7n4o

Much has been written regarding the Resource Show and what to make of it. Many are in a quandary as to how to approach opportunities that may or may not genuinely present themselves. IMO, it comes down to two of Bill's choicest nibblets of advice among many that he has passed on over the last couple of years: " Bet on the jockey, not the horse", and "Follow the money". I'll leave the blog tonight knowing that Franco-Nevada will be on my radar screen tomorrow and that this is knowledge I can profit by in the future.

After reviewing today's market action, I have to ask:

Is the market now so heavily manipulated that the PPT can keep it afloat indefinately?

I'd really appreciate some discourse on this.

Can someone comment on this chart? What is this saying exactly?

http://www.buythebottom.com/cot_charts/gold_3.html

Would it be correct to infer from the graph that commercial traders are heavily shorting gold and when delivery is demanded, the short positions will explosively unwind up, blasting POG to the heavens? Is that a correct interpretation? Or is this "smart money" saying "we don't think gold is going higher any time soon" in fact, it will go lower.

-Help me obi wan kenobi. You're my only hope.
Princess Leia Organa

Bill

Sorry to hear the computer problems are still haunting you.

I agree with MikeNYC if there is data on that disk you can't live without, no backup, then don't let them fool with it. Take the disk to one of the data recover companies they can do amazing things for a price. The gov guys can even recover the data after the disk has been totally reformatted.

I've been there done that more than once over the years. I'm not a computer expert but after years of maintaining multiple computers for my wife, kids and myself I've developed the following system which seems to work quite well. Now this is based on desktop systems but I think with an external USB backup disk you could do something similar for a laptop.

I know your systems have just been rebuilt and are now just like new, so the risk is low of this happening again for some time, right? Well my last system failure (4 years ago) I spent 2 days getting my system back to square one, only to have that brand new disk fail in two weeks and had to do it all over again. I was not a happy camper and the name brand computer store would not even just replace the disk on the spot they had to send it back to the factory which took an extra week.

Anyway here is my latest management system.

For basic internet protection I run everything thru a hardware router, then each computer on the network runs its own firewall and antivirus software along with surge protectors for power / phone / cable.

Each computer set up has two separate hard disks.

The main disk is partitioned into 3 drives; System, Data and Temp. The system drive should only be about 25 Gig, that’s plenty for the OS and all your programs, only install what you need, don't run anything extra in the background. Temp is also fairly small and Data is the rest of the disk where all your settings, favorites, files and data should be stored.

The second disk has at least two drive partitions: Clone System and Backup data. The clone system drive is the same size as the main system drive. The backup drive is sufficient size to handle multiple copies of all my data.

Now comes the due diligence on the backups
.
Once every 6 months or so, when things are running well, I clone my main system disk (OS and all programs) over to the clone drive. Then I switch to boot up from that drive and check to make sure it all works exactly as the original. Unfortunately this is the only way to do this, just copying stuff won't work, the OS has to be installed then the programs have to be introduced into the OS and setup in the Microsoft registry. I know it’s a pain but its just the way Mr. Softy, (Bill Gates) set it up.

So now for the data which all programs have been directed to store on the Data drive I copy all the directories over to the backup drive. Most people do this manually after a crash but over time they get lazy so its best to automate it. There are programs which will do it on a schedule just be careful to make multiple copies because if something is corrupted you don't want to overwrite your backup with a new corrupted copy.

I use my own simple batch program which makes a copy each night at about 4 AM, I'm usually asleep or I should be. I keep 7 days worth of copies then I bump the oldest into the weekly file and keep 4 of those, then bump to the monthly file and I keep 6 of those. I know sounds like a lot, but disk space is cheap, the files aren't really that big and I occasionally want to recover something I deleted months ago. Also as the system is automated, if I'm away for a few days I could be saving corrupted files for days.

Note I also automatically run a heavy duty virus check just before the backup each night, the antivirus running during the day is minimal as I don't want to slow down performance.

Anyway JMHO for you to consider when you are at this point of setting up a new computer system foundation, make it a robust one. I've never had a problem in 4 yrs but I have simulated it, about 3 minutes to boot from the clone disk or 15 minutes if I have a mother board failure and I have to pull a disk and pop it in another machine. I know this system isn't quite "Plug and Pray" but its not that much work if you set it right in the first place.

Quasi

San Diego fire:
Well I have been out of my house for two days now since the mandatory evacuation of Fallbrook. The fire is out now except for the fire on Camp Pendelton, which they started. Otherwise I would be able to go home. "They" say we will be able to go home on Friday. Luckily we have a relative in the county next to San Diego that had room for my wife, daughter and myself. And they are vets so our dog and two cats stayed in their clinic. What luck! 206 homes burned down in a community of 40K residents. Not bad unless it was your home. Most of the homes were in a mobile home park. A lot of elderly. Not the Golden years.

stktrader,

Glad to read that you're ok.

Like Shark,
My mantra that is plastered on the lower section of my computer monitor is " Don't buy falling stocks" Bottom fishing is a loser.

Question: When a stock is added to both the S&P500 & S&P 100 indexes what can be expected from the stock's price the moment this happens?

Here is what I observed, but is this normal under these conditions?

At the close of trading today, someone jumped in at 3:59 and bought 25m+ shares of NYX.

Could this be index funds who automatically include this stock in their portfolio because of their recent inclusion into the S&P 500/100?

On average the stock trades 4.5m+ shares per day. Prior to this large block trade, 24m+ shares changed hands.

It was a 100% increase in volume in one minute. Plus, this 25m block equates to 10% of the shares outstanding. Will this make the stock more volatile?

China down big...some indexes are more than 4% down so far....

Bill,

What do you think this might mean for PTR tomorrow?

Merrill Lynch Revision:

Sorry for the incorrect figures I posted yesterday early morning on ML ‘Write Downs’ , overnight it increased from $5 something Billion to $8 BILLION.

In three (3) short weeks the estimate grew from $4.5 BIL to $8 BILLion. Hey! a billion here a billion there no big deal or is it?

Their balance sheet will now show more profit in the future, if they go out and rake in a few cents on the dollar from this garbage debt they hold or probably sell to unsuspecting Mom&Pop.

ALOHA !!

stktrader ... Yes, I would say you are quite lucky to have a place to go nearby. My wife's family lives in the San Diego area, mostly near La Mesa. Her niece lost her home out in the Escondido area. It was a rental, but she did not have time to get all her possessions out. Glad to hear that ordeal is almost over!

go34 ... I essentially said a decline in stocks will bring gold down. If the US government and FED/Wall Street put out honest data then there would be no debate that we are already in a recession where inflation is a major problem. The rest of the World believes it ... at least those who vote by selling US Dollars. I believe many miss a major factor in the gold market. The POG(Price Of Gold) can be manipulated by the major powers of fiat(mainly central banks). It makes no sense to us average Joe Blows who sit watching CNBC hearing Bernanke say inflation is under control when our bills clearly say it isn't yet gold has been on a bull trend since 2001. Can a major POG correction in the POG be orchestrated during a bull trend? Yes it happens all the time even back in the early 1980s .... in fact in May 2006 the POG went down $155 over a one month period. I can smell a G7 stink coming! The major global export countries(who hold most US Dollars)will not allow the US Dollar to just drop at will. This is not a new game. I wrote an article earlier this year entitled "Revisiting 1978" in which I literally took the minutes out of a 1978 Fed Meeting(phone conference)where then FED Chairman Burns was talking about manipulating a US Dollar rally and bailing out the failing real estate market at the same time. I got this info direct from the US Fed website in their archive files. It is well documented that FED and global central bank intervention has gotten more powerful since 1978. When I talk of the classic struggle of fiat and gold I mean that in a long term scenario. The real question is how long can the FED and other central banks control the POG. The answer is as long as they have a substantial gold reserve to sell. When their supply runs out its "GAME OVER" and then we move into the realm of confiscation, the Amero and other tactics of absolute desperation.

I agree that a BIG derivatives blow up or some major geopolitical event like the US attacking Iran(where oil is cut off)would send the POG higher.

Clearly none of us have a crystal ball that can forecast events accurately. Most major forces that cause such events are only known by the elite 1% who communicate behind closed central bank and Oval Office and Pentagon doors. We The People, the investing public, are always the last to know ... Yet we are the first to PAY to clean up their mess! That is truly injustice and that is why our Founding Fathers established a US Constitution of "small" government. The smaller the government the smaller the mess! Too bad we have voted for the opposite!

Bobj: I'd like to post an objection to posting subscription content in full as was done with Rev Shark's column from a paid service. I think it is okay to discuss what was said, but to copy and paste as was done violates all sorts of things.

Morning Bill,

If you match up news stories you can see that Paulson was sent out to provide cover for our allies the Turks in their upcoming intensified attack on the Kurds. That makes this the 2nd Bush to sell out the Kurds. It's funny how things change once the "Kurds" (or anyone else) become YOUR problem.

Fill in the blank quiz. In her leather jacket and evening makeup, Erin Burnett looks good enough to ______________.