What is the symbol for Khan Resources? tia

Khan:

KHRIF pink sheets
kri.to

bearish cast to the stories this morning (eg, SNDK down despite good earnings)...wish markm were posting->wondering if picture of market internals might be one of (stealth) carve-out of support ahead of collapse...

Goodmorning my friends,

hope all is well.

Q: does anyone have some idea as to what went on with GFI yesterday??

If, not too much trouble pls. post your thoughts.

Thanks much and have a great day.
I am long GFI but am wondering if waiting is still a good idea.

ill be going to the Gold show on monday
during my lunch break, hopefully i can tune in on a guest lecture.

hEADLINE from my Ameritrade Streamer.

call me stupid but what does it mean??

Ivanhoe Energy To Extend WarrantsLast update: 10/19/2007 8:09:00 AMVANCOUVER, Oct 19, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Ivanhoe Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: IVAN and TSX: IE) has agreed to a maximum six month extension of the expiry date of 10,996,330 common share purchase warrants to purchase 10,996,330 common shares issued in connection with a US$17.75 million non-brokered private placement special warrant financing that closed in November 2005, and 2,000,000 warrants to purchase 2,000,000 common shares issued in November 2005 in connection with a loan agreement. All of the warrants for which the expiry dates are being extended are held by arm's length investors. An insider of Ivanhoe Energy who was issued warrants in connection with the private placement financing has not been granted an extension. The warrants, which were scheduled to have expired in November 2007, will be extended, subject to the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange, until the earlier of: (i) six months following the original expiry date of the warrants; and (ii) thirty days following the date the closing trading price of the common shares of Ivanhoe Energy on the Toronto Stock Exchange exceeds the exercise price of the warrants for a period of five consecutive trading days. Subject to the Toronto Stock Exchange approval, the holders of the warrants may exercise the warrants at the original exercise price of US$2.50 per common share in the case of the warrants issued in connection with the private placement financing and US$2.00 in the case of the warrants issued in connection with the loan agreement, until the new expiry date. No other terms have been affected. Ivanhoe Energy is an independent international heavy oil development and production company focused on pursuing long-term growth in its reserves and production using advanced technologies, including its proprietary heavy oil upgrading process (HTL(TM)). Core operations are in the United States and China, with business development opportunities worldwide. Ivanhoe Energy trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market with the ticker symbol IVAN and on the Toronto Stock Exchange with the symbol IE. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This document includes forward-looking statements, including forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements which are not historical facts. When used in this document, the words such as "could," "plan," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "potential," "should," and similar expressions relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Although Ivanhoe Energy believes that its expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risks and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements include risks disclosed in Ivanhoe Energy's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on EDGAR and the Canadian Securities Commissions on SEDAR. CONTACT: Cindy Burnett, (604) 331-9830, Website: SOURCE Ivanhoe Energy Inc.
Copyright (C) 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved **********************************************************************

WGDFF hitting 52 week high.

Looks like DUG might have finally gotten some mojo

DUG- clearing half into the opening spike...not sure how OIH down 3.5% translates into DUG up only 3.7%?

This morning I had a meeting with a big Italian producer/dealer of batteries for cars and recreational vehicles. For the production of next year at the moment they make the new price lists linked to the change in the Euro/US Dollar and to the price of lead, because they told me that during this year this company could not pass all the cost rises to the customers, and they really lost some money because of the record price of lead (even if they buy most of the goods from China, so it's not a matter of low-cost competition). But now the manager of the company expects that during the next few months the price will decrease.
Together with a similar information I had a couple of weeks ago about aluminium, I really think that some commodities (specially the ones used in the real factories, and not in virtual exchange) are close to a top, at least at present.

Going to try and get to the gold show Sunday morning too... with CAD dollar so strong where is the best place to put cash besides gold & silver? Do they sell gold at the show? :)

Take a look at the chart for Cara 100 BC... is it time to buy a boat yet?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BC&t=1y

UNG- opening another position in a sadly neglected commodity...40.67...

Gold Fields Started At Outperform By BMO >GFI Last update: 10/19/2007 8:14

am i the only one long GFI??

TIA

DBRS finally confesses:

"DBRS has said the assets were top quality and the market breakdown was a result of liquidity problems brought on by a global market rout."

"Wednesday, DBRS revealed that about three-quarters of the total amount is backed by complicated financial structures known as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, while only about 23 per cent comes from “traditional” assets such as mortgages and auto loans."

http://tinyurl.com/yr9b5s

Moneygenie,

I'm long GFI from $15.59. Keeping this one for a while though, the growth potential is too large, and I want to stick to my original plan of keeping it for at least a year.

BC

I was looking at this one in mid-Sept. when the RSIs were bottoming, but as appropriately pointed out by Jumble(?), the fundamentals are bad. It looks like there was a tepid rally in late September on the back of the liquidity injections and general market buoyancy, (sorry about the pun), but it resumed the downtrend pretty quickly and now it's like catching a falling knife. Do you foresee more or fewer boats being purchased in 2008 than in 2007? I'd say fewer. If earnings keep going down, then their already extended P/E can't be supported, which means more downside to the price. I think strict application of the Accumulation Zone principles is warranted, i.e. don't buy until a clear signal comes in the form of all RSIs rising above 30 after having been below.

pressing my bet on QID....

IVAN

I take this warrant extension to mean that they're hoping that recent strength in the stock price will continue, giving an opportunity for warrant holders to exercise, thereby injecting more cash into the company. Cheaper to raise capital by extending an existing warrant issue than by starting fresh. Other interpretations?

Red Sky in Morning
Sailors Take Warning !

Did open small position Breakwater Res.(zinc)@2.82.BWR-T

Silver Standard Res.Is it time to sell?

Moneygenie

I've been trading GFI since the selloff. My own little gold mine :}. I agree with your assesment, and Bill's, huge long term potential.

JIM--on DBRS article, does anyone have an estimate of how much credit in the total system, U.S. or Canadian is questionable? Of all the money market funds, bonds, total universe, how much of the paper that is floating around will now have to be looked at, restructered, written off? Does anyone have a sense of the total picture? I'm interested in how big this thing is.

Options expiration today. Didn’t the Fed intervene on expiration day just recently?

AAPL reports Monday. . . straddle and other option opportunities? No position.

Yen showing some strength vs. USD & Euro. Expected with ongoing G-7 meet. Some unwinding of carry trade noticeable today in equities including PMs.

SPX - 3-/10-/15-minute RSI and Stochastics suggest reversal of morning downtrend may be imminent.

I post a global stock market performance round-up on my blog on a monthly basis. The dilemma with focusing only on historical returns, however, is that they at best represent a rear-view mirror assessment of future investment potential.

A far superior approach is to combine the performance ranking tables (and price charts) with a measure of valuation. And this is where I find Fullermoney’s global price/earnings ratio (PER) and dividend yield (DY) tables particularly useful.

Here is the link: http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/19/global-stock-market-valuations-serve-to-separate-the-wheat-from-the-chaff/

Denny,

If anyone really knows how big this credit thing will snowball, they aren't talking. I believe that lenders will be writing off and restructuring for at least several quarters going forward.

When you have 20 minutes, watch Jim Grant on the credit crunch here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v6r2_5Qx8z9M.asf

Can someone explain this: oil is at a record and the oil service stocks are down 4%. Is this just noise related to expirations or...?

Seamus,

AAPL straddle at 170 requires a move of 13.5%. A little high for me, but you never know. Problem is expiration is a month away for November contracts, so premium is high.

AAPL 171.52 10:45AM
Contract Premium #Req. Move CP Ratio
C170 $12.00 1 11.77% 12.65%
P170 $9.70 1 -13.54%

OG- nicely timed post...eked out a 0.20 increase in basis on part of the position....

Wow, the silver spot is in a swan dive. Gold as well, but to a lesser degree.

Denny,
Just about all my oil, oil service, tanker, watch lists are showing lots of red. Indiscriminate selling? Maybe people want to go into Monday flat on this spooky anniversary time. Who knows.

One of those days where the market doesn't makes sense. I'm not going to argue, just watch my stops and see what happens.

GSX - turns out the reason GSX turned around was a filing of an 8K last week showing over 100% Y-O-Y increase in oil production and healthy increases in gas production. You would think that the increased production, combined with 90/bbl, would make it attractive, but not on a day like today, I guess.

Good luck all. Hope you have some dry powder to pick up some bargains.

pressing my bet on QID....

Posted by: 2nd_ave

Either you are very lucky, very good at this game or have no fear.

Since I don't believe in luck then I must say I admire you!!!

TIA for sharing and showing .

re: market internals.

The market has posted Hindenburg Omens on two consecutive days. Go-to names are rising while the rest of the market is being sold.

Si02 agree with you . . a little too pricey.

BMO out with target price increases for some miners today, including KGC (Long) and SLW.

Will be taking off this aft for the weekend. Good luck!

QID: exited QID at 36.88

I believe that the issue with oil is the price is getting too high. By too high, I mean that oil is getting to the price where people will start to cut back on consumption. As people cut back, it will reduce demand both for oil and prices for this and the services around this. Energy stocks generally trade with the price of oil, but this relationship falls off when oil gets to extreme highs and lows as it is a price sensitive commodity at extremes and people will modify their demand behaviour accordingly and bring prices back in line with fundamentals.

QID- following jogyp and making sales...counting on a dead-cat for reloading...

I sold everything this morning at losses/evens/small wins....This pretty much F's up my week.

Will go out to my GF's for some R and R and returm to pick the wallets off the dead bodies. (that is SUCH a distasteful allusion, isn't it?)

Exited FXI completely. Do not want to hold it over the weekend. Will re-enter again if/when a major correction happens.

2nd - Think ETFC is done falling?

BC's boats look like SUBMARINES !

I'm out of all but partial WGDFF and TM I'm bottom fishing on.

Sold the QID/SDS/DXD into the strength(weakness?) this mid-AM.
I expect a little fight from the bulls, perhaps to reload ultra shorts. I want a bigger pullback.

HOV - Moonshot! +4.5% all of the sudden. What's up?

Bill,

I would appreciate it if you and Jock and anyone else going to the Cambridge gold show, take a look at GIX and let me know what you think.

GIX - GEOLOGIX

Over the last month, GIX have put out a stream of good news. I follow this closely and it is by far my biggest holding. I don’t feel right highlighting this stock all the time and have refrained from doing so, but I have evaluated quite a few junior mining stocks over the last 6 months and GIX keeps coming up as the best risk to reward ratio than any others I look at and I thought I should share it with the community.

They have just updated their presentation on their website and their story just keeps getting better. I like their management and believe they have done a great job of managing the SSR issue and now have guaranteed 100% ownership of San Augustin deposit. They also have a large backlog of drilling and trenching results to come out. Management have exercised their right to call in Warrants to raise an extra $3 million to fund further drilling. While short term this could be seen as a negative, I consider it to be a very big positive. By doing this, they are raising cash but not diluting any more than they had already committed to. This allows time for further good news and price appreciation before they need to raise any further funds.

See the new presentation below.

http://www.geologix.ca/i/pdf/GIX_Presentation.pdf

On one slide they identify the size of the targets for the various zones and these add up to a total target size of 800 million tonnes. All my previous estimations have been based on a conservative figure of 200 Mt.

They put a very conservative value of metal in the ground for a 200 Mt deposit of over $6 billion @ $550/oz Au, $10/oz Ag and $1.00 Zn. I believe this is very conservative and the fact that they are targeting 800 Mt deposit indicates the potential is huge.

The comparison to Penasquito is good. Comparable size and grades. The 1:1 strip ration compared to 2.76:1 means they only have to move 53% of the dirt that Penasquito do.

Penasquito have over 13 Moz gold and over 52 Moz gold equivalent oz in Proven and Probable. The deposit is in stable country, Mexico. Road and power access is close. There are no residents in the area and minimal environmental issues expected.

The presentation also has details of the deal structure which shows they will need to pay between $12 and $27 million to SSR for 100% ownership. This payment is not due however until Jan 2009. So there is plenty of time to get all the current drill results in and get some share price appreciation before they need to raise this cash.

So 10% of $6.24 billion value and dividing by existing 42 million fully diluted shares gives a share price target of $14.80. Again this is conservative. If we then assume further dilution to say 70 million shares, it still gives us a very conservative value of $8.91.

Double the size of the target to 400 Mt and you double the share price to $17.82 and if we ever reach their blue sky target size of 800 Mt then it could be $35 per share.

In addition to this there is the upside of metal prices being higher than their very conservative estimates.

I cannot understand why you would look at KRY when you have opportunities like this. Sure you might get a short term increase with KRY, but things have changed and the risk in Venezuala is now high. GIX still has great potential with much lower risk.

DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE

With regards to my spreadsheet, I have been out of action for a couple of weeks and will be working on getting a couple of example calculations out to the community over the weekend including GIX.

Bill,

I would appreciate it if you and Jock and anyone else going to the Cambridge gold show, take a look at GIX and let me know what you think.

GIX - GEOLOGIX

Over the last month, GIX have put out a stream of good news. I follow this closely and it is by far my biggest holding. I don’t feel right highlighting this stock all the time and have refrained from doing so, but I have evaluated quite a few junior mining stocks over the last 6 months and GIX keeps coming up as the best risk to reward ratio than any others I look at and I thought I should share it with the community.

They have just updated their presentation on their website and their story just keeps getting better. I like their management and believe they have done a great job of managing the SSR issue and now have guaranteed 100% ownership of San Augustin deposit. They also have a large backlog of drilling and trenching results to come out. Management have exercised their right to call in Warrants to raise an extra $3 million to fund further drilling. While short term this could be seen as a negative, I consider it to be a very big positive. By doing this, they are raising cash but not diluting any more than they had already committed to. This allows time for further good news and price appreciation before they need to raise any further funds.

See the new presentation below.

http://www.geologix.ca/i/pdf/GIX_Presentation.pdf

On one slide they identify the size of the targets for the various zones and these add up to a total target size of 800 million tonnes. All my previous estimations have been based on a conservative figure of 200 Mt.

They put a very conservative value of metal in the ground for a 200 Mt deposit of over $6 billion @ $550/oz Au, $10/oz Ag and $1.00 Zn. I believe this is very conservative and the fact that they are targeting 800 Mt deposit indicates the potential is huge.

The comparison to Penasquito is good. Comparable size and grades. The 1:1 strip ration compared to 2.76:1 means they only have to move 53% of the dirt that Penasquito do.

Penasquito have over 13 Moz gold and over 52 Moz gold equivalent oz in Proven and Probable. The deposit is in stable country, Mexico. Road and power access is close. There are no residents in the area and minimal environmental issues expected.

The presentation also has details of the deal structure which shows they will need to pay between $12 and $27 million to SSR for 100% ownership. This payment is not due however until Jan 2009. So there is plenty of time to get all the current drill results in and get some share price appreciation before they need to raise this cash.

So 10% of $6.24 billion value and dividing by existing 42 million fully diluted shares gives a share price target of $14.80. Again this is conservative. If we then assume further dilution to say 70 million shares, it still gives us a very conservative value of $8.91.

Double the size of the target to 400 Mt and you double the share price to $17.82 and if we ever reach their blue sky target size of 800 Mt then it could be $35 per share.

In addition to this there is the upside of metal prices being higher than their very conservative estimates.

I cannot understand why you would look at KRY when you have opportunities like this. Sure you might get a short term increase with KRY, but things have changed and the risk in Venezuala is now high. GIX still has great potential with much lower risk.

DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE

With regards to my spreadsheet, I have been out of action for a couple of weeks and will be working on getting a couple of example calculations out to the community over the weekend including GIX.

Out of GSX for now at a small gain. Too much pain. I'm not going to argue with all the red arrows. Of course, it bounced back up right after I sold it, but, to quote the great Raul Julia in Gumball Rally,

"Whats-a behind me, she's-a not important!"

Have a good weekend, everyone.

Bull Hunter, thanks for Grant link.

Does the overall market pretty much have to go down for the financials to go down?

Bubblevision Update:

For 4 straight days this week, the phrase "NO Recession" was heard repeatedly, almost mantra like, on CNBC.

This morning, they ran a 4+ minute interview with legendary investor, Julien Robertson, who in no uncertain terms stated that we are in for "a doozie of a recession".

Have the powers at the HB&B finally decided to bring the market down?

"Does the overall market pretty much have to go down for the financials to go down?"

Denny,

Let's put it this way, I believe the S&P 500 is comprised of about 20% financial stocks. If the financials continue to slide, so will the S&P.

Disclosure: I'm heavily bet on SKF

Aussie:
Tx again for your commentary on GIX.

It's very educational for me to follow your valuation methodology.

regards

joey

Saw Bill's Blog featured this morning on Reuters_com and just dropping in to take a look at what members of the Cara community are up to these days.

I have never used a Mac; really don't favour the Windows O/S. But it works and with a bit of third party software it can be made 99% bulletproof. I have done this for a few other users who have had their computers taken over by dark forces. I don't think I would leave Windows with the software I now use on a daily basis. I did use Linux for a while four years ago and now use the free Ubuntu/linux O/S from time to time. The latest Ubuntu is getting more like a MAC or Windows O/S everyday. But without the software the O/S is useless.

I will be at the Cambridge Natural Resources Conference on Sunday. This will be another free seminar to keep me focused on being a better investor/trader and further my education.

As for the Canadian stock market, I don't see a lot of risk/reward for buying. This is a market to sell into. My current portfolios are 90% cash as of September 28, 2007. Don't see a recession ahead of us. Market seems reasonably valued. What is needed is for investors to get worried and sell here and let prices come to me.

The last month has been interesting in that a lot of US coins are turning up in my change her in Toronto. Still have not found any wooden nickels amongst them. What is interesting is that the US markets are going up with the fall of the US dollar, but stocks that are listed and trade on both sides of the border are showing neutral changes in Canadian prices (or going down) and US prices for the same stocks are going up - some making false highs.[017]

OG- what's your take on ETFC...any plans to reopen a position?

ETFC - Missed picking up some Oct 11 calls for .05 (now .10 asked). Stock @ 10.95

You know its Bad Day when....the best performing stock on your watchlist is Nortel...down .04 cents. -.25%

Bull Hunter,
Q: "Does the overall market pretty much have to go down for the financials to go down?"

A: Let's put it this way, I believe the S&P 500 is comprised of about 20% financial stocks. If the financials continue to slide, so will the S&P.

The reason I brought it up is because if the bet is that the Fed and the Presidential cycle prop up the market into next year, could the Financials move lower under those circumstances if they have their own set of problems? Or are they just too joined at the hip? That was what I was getting at.

Denny,

I'd think that the financials, IN THEORY, could move lower without effecting the Dow or the NASDAQ to any huge extent. The S&P 500 would certainly be effected by the financials.

The problem is, the credit crunch snowballing is effecting many other sectors besides the financials. IMHO, deteriorating financial stocks will bring the whole market down.

So in answer to your question, the financials and the S&P 500 ARE joined at the hip. Not as much with the Dow and even less with the NASDAQ.

Hope this helps. Best of luck to you.

Any thoughts on the bond market pricing in a rate cut and this latest sell off is an opportunity to jump into miners before the last dance ends?

Re IB: Have noticed that use of penny increments on options orders place via IB does, in fact, seem to bump you to the head of the line. For instance, yesterday I bought some calls at .05, even though my bid was .06; this despite the fact that there were several thousand pre-existing bids at .05.

Not saying it's true, just that it seems that way.

Reminds me of Jessica Rabbit's line: "I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way."
http://youtube.com/watch?v=NRGHVe1YE2c

With respect to oil stocks, it looks like the market is focused on SLB’s weak North American numbers and this is cascading into the sector.

ETFC - Long Oct 11 calls (expiring today)

Bill, I'm near certain that the iMac has a mini-DVI port available. So depending on your monitor you need a Apple mini-DVI to DVI adaptor or an VGA adaptor.

Cable link is here:
http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore.woa/wa/RSLID?nnmm=browse&mco=720F2947&node=home/shop_mac/mac_accessories/cables

And SLB's NA numbers were presaged by NBR's report last week.

Has anyone here installed the kitco live gold/silver/platinum/palladium/rhodium streaming toolbar? http://kcast.kitco.com/

Bill,

You will need a mini-DVI to VGA adaptor to work with any VGA monitor.

DougM

SLB is sitting on its 50 dma only 20% above its 200 dma. NBR's price is below both 50 and 200 dma.

SiO2,

Just installed it after it passed my virus scan. Seems to work great.

Thanks for the link!

OldGoat -

Re. HOV and a few other homebuilders good day

Even a whole lot of other explanations could satisfy Occam's razor more readily - e.g. options expiration, day-trading squeeze, big bottom feeder amassing another load, I look at such movements in beaten down stocks with renewed interest since the early Aug. quant fund massacre. It should stand to reason that, with the well-publicized proliferation of 130/30 long-short strategies (for return enhancements) on top of the quant boys, heavy sell-off days with long liquidation from a risk management standpoint should force a proportional reduction of short float on the most popular out-of-favor names. So I was wondering if an efficient, alternative strategy to the short ETFs (which end up crowded and expensive/imperfectly priced) could be a basket of recently hated stocks by market consensus.

JML

Bull, that's great, does it have any guarantees on no adware?

SiO2,

I'm running SpyBot on it now. Will also run AdAware. If they find anything, I'll let you know.

Anyone still keeping an eye on HERO? Someone has got this one in a vice grip for options expiration at 25. Seems like a possible opp. to buy a long dated call or write puts.

Question Folks... I can't find the answer...

I was told that the ETF SDS shorts
the S&P 500...

What does QID short?

thanks!

I have increased to 67% of max position in Etrade at 10.90 for average of 11.18. I will fill the last 33% once the weekly RSI rises above 30 (if it is below my average price) .

Isaiah64v4,

http://www.proshares.com/funds

QID from the profile page at Yahoo Finance:

The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to the inverse of the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets to financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective.

Bull Hunter .........
Ooooooooo my....... I GOOGLE and came up blank.
Daaaaaaaaaaaa!

Thanks for the help...:-)

Thanks RONK....... that was a good description that you posted..

QID: ...corresponds to TWICE the inverse of QQQQ

Does anyone know what Ken Heebner (CGM Funds) is buying and selling these days?

Fred,

http://www.gurufocus.com/ListGuru.php?GuruName=Ken+Heebner

RobBoss .......

Help me out here..... you mean take the current quote of QQQQ divid into 1 then multi by 2 should give you the QID value?

Bull Hunter,
Thanks but, I only have access to his info from June 2007 at Guru.

BillySundance,

Been watching HERO recently, the only thing I can think is maybe their earnings will be low on their Oct 30th report.
I do know that analyst estimates of earnings reach a low point in this next quarter, before climbing steadily through FY2008. Couple that with increasing demand for domestic oil sources and it looks like a pretty good play.

Bull Hunter,
I meant to say that, I only have access to his info up until June 2007 at Guru.

Fred,

Here's Ken from yesterday:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=566441504&play=1

Isaiah64v4,
QID: If QQQQ moves up $1, QID loses approx. $2.
If QQQQ loses $1, QID gains approx. $2.

Twice the inverse.

UNG- adding at 39.70...

Isaiah:

Ronk's description was otherwise ok. "seeks...' and 'should...'being operative words, i.e. it is not an exact 1:2 coorelation.

Compare the % gain/loss for the day (or intraday) to gain a sense of the relationship. For example I show QID currently @ plus 2.58% and QQQQ @ minus 1.43.

SiO2,

Both Spybot & AdAware give it a clean bill of health. Of course, there could be something that's not in the database.

I'm enjoying the live ticker.

OG- decided against going long any financials for now...will take another look at etfc if it tests the 52-wk low...

Bull Hunter,
Thanks, that was an interesting interview. I agree with him. However, I think that SLB could still come back another $40.

2nd - Figured the ETFC Oct 11 calls would position me to take advantage of intra-day bounce, should it occur; risk (loss of call premium) small relative to potential gain. However, looks like ETFC is going to "pin" at/near 11, so I'll probably be out a few hundred. We'll see.....

UUU.to - for a very volatile stock, this one is hangin' tought today, down only 1%. The whole U sector is pretty steady as well (PDN,CCJ). I will not be surprised if UUU closes in the green.
Whomever took the stock down hard recently will want to cover before the UXC index ticks up again Monday night.

Craig & RobBoss

I understand now...Thanks for helping me out.

Thanks a lot Bull Hunter.

Now if someone here could develop something similar to stream in real-time any new comments posted on this site, you'd be a very popular person. Would save us collectively tens or hundreds of thousands of Refresh mouse clicks daily. You'd also help save the environment as all those needless switching bits and bytes will not need to travel (every switch is a tiny amount of energy dissipated along the way).

On the other hand, Bill's site keeps my index finger very fit. Bill's site is also fitness!

Chas,

thanks for the response RE:HERO. I think the risk/reward is positive on this one right now. It can be bought right here where insiders recently bought. Perhaps once they are done with some acquisition indegestion it will move.

heavy damage today-don't think we'll be resuming the uptrend anytime soon...

re: HERO

Looks like really strong support at 25, with a 52 week low of 23.80 intraday. It hasn't closed below 25 though. If this support holds and its RSI comes back up above 30 then I'll be in

Re: HERO

One newsletter, that recommends the stock, says that falling day rates in the Gulf have caused HERO shares to plummet.

The lower rates appear to have continued into the end of the 3rd quarter.

As rigs leave the Gulf for the international market, rates should rise. Keep in mind that Winter heating season will also increase drilling demand in the Gulf.

HERO could be a turn-around candidate by years end.

Good luck.

2ave/others-

You can occasionally find me at Leisa's or at BDG123's site.

Good luck and good trading.

2nd,
Does that mean you're staying short over the weekend? Just curious as I reloaded a few ultras and was wondering if we would see a reversal on Monday when I read your post. Sometimes they surprise us.

Not a big deal either way for me, small positions and mostly cash waiting for a real correction. Did alright today playing the shorts.

Took profits on all my miners today, even my beloved KGC 12.50, they have since gone up a little, need to look for re-entry next week. I don't think gold is done yet. Closed all October puts and left November puts intact. This strategy has worked quite well (miners hedged by index puts), but past performance is no guarantee of future performance...

As Bill has pointed out, we have a huge advantage over HBB, we can be fast and nimble.

I've been looking at Price/Book ratios on Morningstar of some oil service companies and comparing their current P/B against their 5 year averages. SLB (10.36, 6.19), GSF (3.46, 1.93) and RIG (4.53, 2.06). During the past 12 months these companies have had big gains (SLB 87%, GSF 62% and RIG 67%). I like the quality of these companies but, think that they are way ahead of themselves and I expect pullbacks to near their 5 year averages.

Bill:

Another computer tip. I handle all the tech for our mid size firm. The number 1 place we buy all components in newegg.com.

I have ordered hundreds of stuff. Great prices better than local. Reviews so you know if it is crap before you buy it, and fast shipping.

So when you need quick fixes order online and it is normally delivered in 2 days.

I used to go locally and they want $25 for a cable that I can get for $3 at newegg.

Pretty good research report on Asia:

http://rapidshare.com/files/63732934/guanxi.pdf

Why more money will come to Asia
With the twelve-month return of the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index now in excess of
60%, there are itchy trigger fingers in the fund management community. But
rather than flee from Asian markets in the next twelve months, we predict even
more money will be allocated to them, driving up valuations. Asia has high growth
levels, and equally if not more importantly, most of the rest of the world does not.
Upgrade India to market weight
Within Asia, India has the second-strongest growth, and the second-largest
economy, after China. The two economies complement each other, and given
Asian markets are being propelled by top-down factors and not valuations, it is
incongruous to remain underweight India while liking China. We reduce in the
mature markets of Korea and Taiwan to fund.
Upcoming iron ore negotiations
Australia and Brazilian iron ore producers start annual iron ore negotiations with
China next month. At stake is the price of a key input in China’s ongoing
urbanization and infrastructure development. With little sign of a slowdown in
global iron ore in sight, prices are likely to rise by 30% in FY08. Rio Tinto and PT
Inco are likely to benefit from this theme.

craig- looking for a "nice" re-entry into QID today is probably not going to happen, so reloaded 1/4 position around 36.75 and will hold that into the close...

MU- at 10.09? no, i don't think the Naz is on the way back anytime soon....

It's 3:05 p.m. Time for the cavalry to ride to the rescue?

Not with our "wooden nickels"

Very interesting story on "America to Press for Restrictions on Potent Sovereign Wealth Funds” .

http://tinyurl.com/2uo6sn

Ah, now that I see S&P at 1509 I think it tests 1500 minimum, and you know the story if that fails..... Disclosure: position in SDS

Bill,

you're probably going to cover this on the weekend, but do you think the correction we have seen over the last week or so is the beginning on the major correction you were calling for or do you think this is just another small pullback and that there is still more upside ahead?

Thanks.

Good question, bb.

I'm wondering if this is just a bad day for the bulls or if it's a harbinger of Black Monday.

Anyone care to comment?

Charts of the Dow and SPX are still above their 50 days, I wouldn't ring the bear bell yet. The market was overbought.

I'm so glad I took two small positions in SKF and SRS this morning. I took a small haircut this morning when I got spooked out of my WGDFF. The gains off those two ultrashorts are making up for that nicely.

Bull Hunter

From what I have learned from Dennis Gartman is to watch the Yen/Euro trade

http://tinyurl.com/2c86lw

When the yen is weak then the market has a appetite for risk and the markets march upwards. Of course the opposite is true. Look at today's drop in the Yen /Euro and you can see it reflected in today's market.

Isaiah64v4,

Thanks.

Would this be a better indicator than Yen/US Peso?

Bull Hunter
So over the weekend watch the Yen/Euro and if doesn't go up then Monday could be ...well ...I would assume not pretty... Also Gartman thinks the gold boat is too crowded and he has lessen his position big time. So have I 2 days ago and that was the best thing I did all year. If the "carry" trade drops any more it will bring gold down with it.

Bull Hunter
According to Gartman.... this is the one to watch... They go to Japan.... borrow yens at almost nothing....go exchange for euros + $ to invest world wide. When things start to look bad then the traders have to re buy yens tp pay off the banks in Japan. that's the way I understand it. It's called the carry trade. This was part of the reason for the big drop last Aug 16th.

The Yen / Euro is still dropping...as I write it is 163.85.... the support level was to have been 164.78. Usually Gartman gives it an hour at a certain level and if it holds or drops more then he acts. I must say Gartman [on Fast Money- CNBC] at lot... know his commodities.

bill did say the second correction would be the "big one..." don't need to go short, but if you're long, wouldn't want to stick around to find out the hard way...i would be out...don't turn the last dance into a life-altering event...;)

chas, I have the DOW below the 50. What time frame are you using?

I'm out of the RTP puts. I made a bit, but it didn't move for the reasons I thought it would. I'm back to chart studying. If anyone is interested I would like to discuss how the USD/Yen and the USD/Brazilian Real, will effect RTP. And look for trades there.

Bull Hunter: looks like SKF up 5.6% for the day. Not the end of the world, but the end of a good week, for sure.

sorry to confuse, i'm using 50 day SMA with a year chart

Indeed, Denny,

I've had a great week. Still holding SKF & QID, I hope this isn't a mistake.

Have a great weekend!

I'm begrudgingly out of Kinross now, having banked a gain--will look to repurchase lower. Still have small positions in G, SLW, and KRY, but sitting around 90% cash now.

Rationally it's hard to fathom the miners and/or gold dropping much--I mean look, the Dow's almost down 6% again from its all-time high, Ben will be along shortly with another emergency cut (has Cramer gone bonkers yet?). Things are kinda spooky though, what with the parabolic moves in some of the emerging markets and the indisputable calamity in the housing market.

Technically it's hard to argue the fact that the US$ is oversold, but as I said above, it's equally hard to argue for a stimulus for it to rally in the shorterm. It must be a near certainty that the Fed will cut again at the end of the month; I cant help but think though, that this time around, there won't be the instant moon-shot in the markets that we've witnessed over these past few weeks since the 50 bps cut.

I've been stalking Toyota (TM) noting how it's one the cusp of the AZ, but if the US is recession-bound there will be the double-whammy of decreased demand and what you'd think would be further weakness in the $USD (relative strength in the Yen?), should the Fed embark on a series of rate cuts spanning a few quarters.

Interesting times.

According to Donald Coxe, a lot of people assume that the carry trade is driving the price of gold and it is to some degree, but he thinks people will be surprised at the resiliency of gold as the carry trade falls off and gold assumes it's more traditional role as an inflation hedge due to US$ devaluation.

The other couple things to note is that gold (Dec. contract) is up today and the gold stocks are down much less than the market (on the US side, Canadian gold stocks are down more due to more dollar moves).

Also, I suspect a lot of today's pressure on the market was options related. You'll see the SPY finished right at 150 (imagine that!) - a lot of unhappy call owners from yesterday.

Not that I'm trying to be overly optimistic here - there are issues, but I'm staying long golds and oils, but have hedged by shorting a whack of SPY Dec 155 Calls.

Does anyone know until what time do options trade? I had QQQ - NOV 53.00 P sold at 4:05PM at $1.60. I thought the order had expired, it was a wild try. Thanks.

A great day for put holders indeed.

Heard on Bloomberg that Today is the 20th Anniversary of the Oct 87 crash.

Good day for DUG,SDS and QID.
IMO, to be continued Monday.
Shorted INFY and SAY this morning.

Unless WGDFF completely tanks Monday I'll probably sell it to protect my profit. I've got 4k @ 2.05 and I don't wanna be a complete pig. It seems that the second correction could be upon us but it I would like to get back into it at some point. I was wondering what price is the community looking to get back into it at? Also, is anyone adding UUU at this
price or waiting for a pull back. TIA
Jason

Nobody's talking on CNBC about how this sets up perfectly for a "black monday" scenario next week.

Happy anniversary!

If I had to guess, I do not think that today is a one day event largely in that I believe that it will self-perpetuate a bit in the world markets. Of course, I could be wrong.

I shorted BUCY today--with CAT and 3M reporting softness, and the potential dbl top in the stock, it seemed like a reasonable thing to do. The report Nov 1. (Of course, they'll probably get taken private on Monday!) I made a bit of money shorting GRMN and RIMM. In and out quickly. RIMM was remarkably strong. I'll chalk that up to options.

HERO: I'm eyeing it. I'd like to get back in. NBR's reported a very soft qtr and not great guidance. Didn't hear much about that did you?

SEED: I elected to get back in. But my price was not that advantageous.

QID: Holding a speck.

FAST: Sold my fAST puts yesterday. I left some money on the table. It's been acting stronger than it should, IMV. Bird in hand!

Si02,
I believe options on indexes (and the like) trade until 4:15EST.
Tim

Bill,
In regards to the Cambridge show, Kodiak KXL.V has been halted and rumour has it they will be showing off their core samples in Cambridge this weekend. I have been holding RMK.V since .13 and it shot up over 70% today as have other plays in the area on huge volume. Good news because I bought UXG yesterday for $4.63 ouch! but planning to hold it for a while. Have a great weekend. Cheers

yaba...... UXG at 4.63 is not ouch.... buying it from 5.70 down is OUCH ! :-)

My hands are still shakeeey from todays action. Sold all of my BRIC holdings even though I consider it as part of the core holdings and would like to re-enter when/if opportunity shows up. Closed half of SKF and short term RTH puts but still holding longer term ones. Closed UNG but again looking to re-enter. Thank God I had accumulated substantial hedge going into this thing.

Kodiak Exploration is up 355% in 3 weeks ! -

Cara 100 with RSI: http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

JogyP: Yes, 20th anniversary. Some days ago I created a chart simulating the crash with current levels of the Dow (close 10/14/1987 = close 10/15/2007). Would have been an interesting Monday with a dip down to the 9500 level (click for larger chart): http://www.tradersquest.de/2007/10/16/aktien-crash-wie-1987/

Interesting Crude vs. Gasoline comparison in my locals market. Click on 'show crude' and select a 2-year time-frame. They were generally correlated, but recently there is a large divergence. So either crude will be crashing down or gasoline spiking up...

http://www.madisongasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx

Computers are interesting Bill. You have to always account for the possibility of failure. At 3:30PM today I had the third disk failure of my life, in the middle of all the market action. Luckily it was my secondary disk, so I just shut down the computer and disconnected the disk, and was up again in 3 minutes. Now I will be buying two more Seagate 500GB SATA disks, they are $109, amazingly cheap price for the protection you get.

Having backups is crucial, not only of your data, but equally or more importantly is to have a clone of your boot disk. This way in anything happens you are up and running in a couple of minutes, with all your apps intact. A disk failure can happen with any OS.

BTW, I also replaced my fan and power supply with Zalman's. Coupled with the noiseless Seagate disks the PC is virtually noiseless, but that is a different matter.

Bill,
Bill MacLachlan, Chairman of Mawer Investment Management said on BNN, "we realized early on that the Central bank was going to push interest rates down ....."

I don't think that he suggested anything funny.

His interview is at 17:42 on After Hours

http://tinyurl.com/2hcpbp

Interesting interview with a subdued N. Roubini, who dumps on SIV's, the Fed, US Banks, and such, on Bloomberg.

"Shake off the blues!"

"Things are different!"

I must have heard "The market zigs and zags!" about twenty times in 20 minutes. "It zigs, it zags."

"Things are different. People understand things better now!" Oh, I guess they were all stupid back then.

Oh, man. This Fox Business Channel is insane.

Bill, I had that conversation about Chinese Walls with my friend whose wife works at Goldman as a risk analyst.

When I mentioned the incredible results the prop desk has at Goldman, and how it was most likely due to cheating, he said "You know, my wife said when she joined Goldman from (some other HBB, Bear, or something) that the technology they had was head and shoulders above anything else anyone else has. Like flying an F-16 compared to a bi-plane. It's a huge edge."

Then he mentioned the Chinese Walls.

He told me a story about how someone in her group did something to let some information slip to the wrong people in the company, and how he was brought into the office and screamed at and almost fired. I guess that kind of thing has to take place at higher levels than theirs.

I let the topic drop because I like my friends and they are good people and I didn't want to be a boor.

I think that even of there is a wall, if you know where to put someone just outside the wall, and tell him where to look, you can slip some 'public' information out in an obscure manner that most of the public could miss. That's just my hypothesis.

It's pretty blatant when a guy comes right out and says it, though.

Oh yeah, Cavuto just had on the former head of the SEC and was going on and on about how he protected the markets, blah blah. Phew. They shovel it hard and fast on that channel.

Hi,

Added more QID.

Maybe there is a dead cat bounce, but this is very unlikely to be a bottom.

Also: lookout for recent developments in falling prices for Asset backed commercial paper: that can be one of the real reasons for liquidity crinch and the need for immediate cash, determining sales going on.

I am very much looking forward to read Bill´s comment this weekend.

Have a good one.

Don Harrold, who constantly parodies CNBC, has stated that CNBC has become to Fox Business Channel, what Bloomberg is to CNBC.

Is there anyone, with their own TV show, dumber than Larry Kudlow? Tonight, in the same breath, he was calling for lower oil prices, a cut in interest rates and the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar.

Right, Larry. This guy is obviously a few fries short of a Happy Meal. :^)

Bill, if the disk is still running, is there an icon of the disk's program, somewhere in the dock at the bottom of the screen? If so, click on that icon so the application comes to the forefront of your desktop. Then you can first quit the application using "quit," located in the file menu. Then, is there an icon of the disk, itself, somewhere on your desktop? If so, after you first quit whatever program it is running, then drag the disk's icon to the trash icon, that should also be located in your dock. The trash icon should change into an eject symbol, and your disk should pop out.

Bill, by the way, if you want to know which programs are running, look at the icons in the dock. Whichever programs are active will have an upward-pointing black arrow underneath them. YOu should always have an arrow under the square face, which is the Finder, and you might also have an arrow under the black dial, which is the dashboard. Any other icons with arrows underneath are open applications.

Also, if you are in Finder, try clicking on "Help," and type "eject disk" into the "ask a question" box. YOu will get several different answers, pertaining to different kinds of disks and situations. Maybe something there will help, if what I wrote above does not work.

This guy is obviously a few fries short of a Happy Meal. :^)

That was tooooooooooo funny Bull Hunter!

http://www.valdosta.edu/helpdesk/guides/macos/HowtouseaMac.shtml#EjectUSB

How do I eject a jumpdrive or other USB device?

Press the control key on the keyboard. While holding the control key, click on the device's icon on the desktop using the mouse. In the drop-down menu that appears, click Eject. After clicking Eject, remove the device from the USB port.

Note: If you get an error message saying the device could not be ejected, make sure you have closed all programs that are accessing data from the jumpdrive and attempt to eject it again. If you still receive the error message, shutdown the computer and then remove the jumpdrive.

Paperclip might work too.. my friend had the first iMac they put out and that was how he did a soft reboot when it locked up.. by jamming a piece of metal into the power supply.

What's with these stupid designs anyway? What happened to a button?

I washed my keyless entry remote in the laundry last week. Just happy I didn't set my alarm before... but the drivers side only lock is driving me nuts.

How'd he get the trunk open anyway?