The Cracks in Wall Street's Hall of Mirrors
Time for the Banks to Face the Hangman

"Officials in the Treasury Dept--working with their colleagues at Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America---have concocted a scheme to rescue the banks from their massive losses in mortgage-backed securities. The group is planning to set up a $100 billion emergency fund which will purchase non-performing assets for short term debt. In truth, the fund is a bailout which provides the financial giants with an excuse for not reporting their enormous losses from bad bets."

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney10172007.html

Bok Review: What Do Brazil, Mexico and the US Have in Common?
The New Billionaire-Criminal Class

That's the take of Pulitzer prize-winning New York Times reporter David Cay Johnston in a soon to be released book--Free Lunch: How the Wealthiest Americans Enrich Themselves at Government Expense (And Stick You with the Bill) (Portfolio, December 2007).

"Thousands of executives at hundreds of companies took money from shareholders through deliberate actions that distinguish them from bandits only because they wielded pens instead of pistols," Johnston writes. "The techniques are subtler and less overtly violent, but the results are worse, for they undermine the legitimacy of society in ways that street bandits do not. The rules allow this."

http://www.counterpunch.org/mokhiber10172007.html

2nd,
Don't know you're take today but GFI is down a bit premkt.

USD new low, 77.50

Bill, I suspect that you could give Tony Robbins a lesson or two!

I'm embarrassed to say, but I bought some KRY. I'm considering it "free" money from EGO and WGDFF partial profits. SPECULATIVE! So if it goes to pot, I will not cry!

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Geopolitics___Eurasia/Peak_Oil___Russia/peak_oil___russia.html

I'm not quite sure what to make of this, but I think that it offers an interesting counter point. I like reading Engdahl for just that reason. What I find refreshing about Endgahl (and Henry CK Liu) is that their perspectives are so different to what is commonly heard AND they make their points without shrillness. Rather, their points are made cogently and lucidly which reflects considered judgment rather than media pandering opinion.

craig- thanks for the heads-up, but my portfolio is now 40% short (QID, DUG, SMN...even when out on a limb yesterday and shorted [small position only] the FXI)...

moneygenie- in answer to your question from last night, thanks for the link to the Hang Seng (i was only using yahoofinance)...don't be too hard on yourself for bailing early on DUG...second chances abound in this volatility...

I don't know 2nd...looks like the overall mkt is weak on financials and jobs but the USD is so weak it's floating pms and miners. I suspect if we see weakness there it's the miners that go and pms trade sideways.

Leisa,
Welcome aboard. Why feel bad. You are probably in at a buck cheaper than most. Good "luck".

What's the news today? BofA writedown? Lower dollar,etc?

Tony Robbins is a genius. He gets everyone else really inspired about work so that he doesn't have to!

Nice moon shot on gold this last hour!

Stktrader--thanks!

Owning KRY is a bit like admitting that you kick puppies! I'm still in higher than I last bought in. But I made a decen (30%) profit. I missed most of the ride up beyond 3.18 or so.

For Bill and all,

To inspire and soothe the soul.

2nd, Thanks for encourage!!!!

Turn Turn Turn
http://tinyurl.com/2phl4c

Who knows where the Time Goes ( singer is Sandy Denny)
http://tinyurl.com/32fppb

XGD

For we Canadians that are using XGD as broad exposure to the gold miners, (and perhaps those Americans using it to add exposure to Cdn. dollars) ...

TD Waterhouse technical analysts are describing a Continuation Wedge (Bearish) pattern to this iShares fund, (i.e. the upward movement is rolling over). They're forecasting a move towards $55 from its current $75.

The strength in gold would argue against this, but perhaps those who believe that miners predict gold price would counter that the gold pullback is imminent.

dds update- (off topic) sat in on the little guy's latest cleaning with a pediatric dentist...dds works only with kids, all dental chairs (including his stool) just 2 feet off the floor, plasma screens on the ceiling/DVDs, invites the parents chair-side...in the time i thought he was prepping for the cleaning by playing games, wife told me he had actually finished the cleaning!

Way to go Dad! Onward to a lifetime of dental health and no fear!

genie- sandy denny's version of that song has to be the all-time best...played it once on a loop driving solo in the dark over a deserted sonora pass in october...beautiful drive in the late fall just before they close it for the winter...

..closed out the FXI short pre-market at 205.70...that's the last distraction i need right now...

Leisa, very nice read, thank you. I find hard to believe that the west would know not of Russia's little secret, or that it could be so dumb to refuse the theory.

Call me naive but I did not know of the connection between the arrest of Yuko's Oil' Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his intention to sell a dominant stake in Yukos to ExxonMobil after a private meeting with Dick Cheney. "Had Exxon got the stake they would have control of the world’s largest resource of geologists and engineers trained in the a-biotic techniques of deep drilling."

"Why then the high-risk war to control Iraq? For a century US and allied Western oil giants have controlled world oil via control of Saudi Arabia or Kuwait or Nigeria. Today, as many giant fields are declining, the companies see the state-controlled oilfields of Iraq and Iran as the largest remaining base of cheap, easy oil. With the huge demand for oil from China and now India, it becomes a geopolitical imperative for the United States to take direct, military control of those Middle East reserves as fast as possible."

Also, the known reserves of heavy (more expensive) oil of Alberta are comparable to Saudi Arabia's. The stuff is not running out, but the price will change. What is puzzling is that vastly more fuel efficient engines have been known for decades, yet we still use ~15% efficiency engines. Just to satisfy mega interests.

Alright guys, I'm one of those musical types that gets songs stuck in my head and it takes a stronger hook or chorus to replace the current song. I'm good with turn, turn, turn but who knows where the time goes will make me nuts. Love the song but I'm an oldy and Judy Collins voice is what I hear.....over and over and over.

I can imagine a loop as that's what my brain does, sometimes for days or until I hear something more addictive. At least when the little voices are quiet.....LOL!

SiO2: Do look at some of his other articles. The China, Iran, Russia alliance is one that has disturbing implications.

It was interesting watching EBAY in the afterhours yesterday trading up to 44 and now it is at 38. A lot of investors got stuck and a lot of shorts made it big.

craig- if you haven't heard sandy denny and her band on "who knows," it will blow away the judy collins cover...just listening to the slow intro will get you hooked...

Admit it Leisa, you've been reading those KRY Yahoo message boards again!

Thanks for the oil read, and for all your posts. Good stuff, and good luck wtih KRY.

The ABX indices are crashing again. Someone has decided they need to do some selling. Last time in June/July, this was a good leading indicator of the credit crunch and liquidity problems.

http://tinyurl.com/yntzaw

can't figure out which companies are holding up the Naz right now...

Added to QID again.

How about that IVAN up 4.72%

2nd_ave: With Oil staying above $87 with no signs of decline, I am loosing confidence in DUG.
Today's invetory report could set the direction.
What is you take?

I'm still hesitant about adding to my miners here. The HUI still looks tepid. Sure, gold should go up as the dollar hits new lows. But technically, I think prices need to come down a bit more.

Maybe we should form a 12-step program for KRY investors?

"Hello, my name is N2S, and I bought KRY on the latest unfounded rumor."

Leisa, interesting article on Peak Oil. I haven't heard of any counterarguement to this, point by point, though I am sure someone like Matt Simmons would be aware of it and able to argue the "fossilized dinosaur detritus" side. Who knows? Maybe we'll just have Peak Oil Prices, without the Peak Oil.

jogy i think you have the right idea. the naz is desperately holding on, cause the bull story rests on tech. when it falls, it will be hard and fast. i hope.

everything with the word china in it is up 10-15%. this has to be the middle or end of the mania.

RDN, MGIC, TMA, etc. crushed...credit crunch part 2, coming up!

Craig, my dear,

Trick is, to listen to the loop and it is that which quiets the little voice.
( trust me, "little" it is indeed)

I love the image 2nd just put into my space today:

" played it once on a loop driving solo in the dark over a deserted sonora pass in october...beautiful drive in the late fall just before they close it for the winter..."

Thank you. What a joy it is to reach you wonderful souls. And just think what "little men" Cheny and them are to think that war and thievery might be the answer.

All is not lost if we can still appreciate and feel music,know love and share the way we do here...

Thank you Bill Cara.

McGraw-Hill CEO:ABS market woes should not last long

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKWEN175920071018?rpc=44\

------

FWIW, I think MHP as a unique insight into the credit market from there S&P business, so I find their take on the status of credit markets as fairly interesting. I'm hoping to make some time to listen to their CC from this morning later today.

It's getting easier to see how pm's disconnect themselves from the broader market as the dance proceeds. Notice financials are down for what, 6 sessions, jobs down....all pushing the fed to cut and weaken USD even more. Now a 70% chance of a cut in the fed futures.

jogyp- wife has played DUG better than i have...she let it all go into strength yesterday, and bought back this morning...thinking of playing shorts the same way i've played longs recently->daytrading...only problem is i think the mkt will spike down one day, and i don't want to be left out when that happens...personally, if oil prices spike up, wondering if that will have a self-limiting effect on the oil sector-ie, prices up to where they hurt->lower demand...

I feel kind of bad because I borrowed from BOA and have been in SKF since Tues.

Nice open in the IVAN.

GSX opened up a couple cents. There is a conference call Nov 2. I wonder if buying on upcoming news is what stopped the slide?

BCTE popped up on my screen of sub-$4 oil servicers (lotta junk in that catagory) It's up 4.3% so far today (oops, 1.4% now.) Anyone know anything about Big Cat? It started it's run a few days ago. It just scored a big contract with Marathon to provide water management tech for coal bed methane fields.

Also watching WEL, but they had a weak quarter and I can't afford to buy on the way down.

Shark, did you look at that free level2 site? Is that anything close to real level 2?

BTW, nice cover call on FXI this AM 2nd.
from 218 to 205, not bad...and you beat the run up. Nice.

Hey Mike,

IVAN a stellar performer. GSX looking like it's warming up for a repeat performance.

Denny,

LOL!

I jumped in at 72.00 two weeks ago, after Cramer was pounding the table on banks. Who says the crooked shill can't make you money? :^)

I don't get what these 'and 2' bids are.

So far I've seen bids for 602 shares, 502 shares, 302 shares. I'm sure it's no accident. The rest are round lots.

What's the game here?

XGD-T

Nine companies comprise 83 % of this index.Good selection if you are a gold bull and not an active stock picker.

21.65% BARRICK GOLD CORP
13.77% GOLDCORP INC
12.56% NEWMONT MINING CORP
7.36% ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI-SPON ADR
7.15% GOLD FIELDS LTD-SPONS ADR
5.91% KINROSS GOLD CORP
5.62% YAMANA GOLD INC
4.43% AGNICO-EAGLE MINES
4.30% LIHIR GOLD LTD-SPONSORED ADR

Long xgd.

Ahead of the G-7 meeting, with gold extended and displaying multiple short term negative divergences, would consider selling calls against long positions in gold mining stocks. Call premiums are elevated and these stocks have had quite a run. Central bankers need gold lower so they keep telling us all is well and inflation contained. Yeah right-as long as you don't eat, heat your home, or get sick.

Guys, I have to say it's all about oil and gas right now. Not too late to buy IVAN GSX or even AEZ. Will look at the quotes, thanks for reminding.

I agree miners aren't reflecting the POG and it's the damned strangest thing isn't it?

Re Leisa's post on oil, and Engdahl's mention of the Russian school's theory of abiogenic petroleum origin.

This theory has been known in the west all too well - championed by aone bright mind, Cornell's Professor Emeritus Thomas Gold. It took a man of this caliber to be able to voice it and publish it in his elder years, and still, not many have heard of it as a credible (the most credible, IMO) scientific theory. Which says something about the power to shape common beliefs.

His book 'The Deep Hot Biosphere' ruthlessly deconstructs the (Western vested-interest sponsored) biologic origin of hydrocarbons. Highly recommended reading if you're interested in the subject.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Gold

It's actually all about the dollar, if you think about it.

Dollar

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Gold

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

WGDFF just popped, big. Wish I had the capital to be in more trades. Past sins coming home to roost.

Miners lag gold. When they don't confirm the metal movement, tighten your stops because that's a sign of weakness. If the miners confirm the metal push, you are good to go.

Like the Mogambo sez, buy oil, gold and guns.

When oil is hitting new highs it affects the cost of gold production. A Terex excavator uses a lot of fuel. So do those monster trucks.

Can you see how PM's are left as the last dancer?
Higher and higher oil (and lower alower USD) will kill the market. As that happens oil demand falls, oil falls leaving PM's alone on the floor as the Fed floods the system in an attempt to restart the economy's heart. Gold will zoom.

So this is perhaps the start of the last deals in miners before high oil/low USD brings a more rapid decline.

2nd:

QID moving nicely - keep the faith. A few of the top 10 stocks in the QQQQ (representing 45+% of the portfolio) are doing well, otherwise a slide downward.

---------

Energy/income plays: Canadian Trusts AAV & CNE reacting well as you get 14+% monthly income. Long both.

Rob d, No, I've not been to those Y-hoo msg boards. Those places are slimy. Now, I've been there, and have posted as much. But not in a long while. I always feel like I need a shower afterwards.

Craig,
Oil demand dropping is the part I wonder about. At what $/bbl do you see that happening, in a meaningful way?

GSX: Man, there is some power to this. There was a big pile at 2.25 and it looks like the asks are chewing right through that.

Whats with the straight-line runup from 758-764 in gold this morning... Is that one huge buyer? I've never seen the chart look like that.

i was just kidding leisa. i remember you posting about your "fondness" for them earlier. sorry for the mixup :)

Re: Oil Demand

In my economics classes we were always taught that Oil had a pretty much inelastic demand curve, meaning that people will pay whatever price is set. I think that is largely true. I know at $5 a gallon I may drive a little less, but I will still be filling up.

The Capacity To Succeed
Charles Maxwell, Sr. Energy Analyst

Please click here for full report:
http://www.weedenco.com/Maxwell/Maxwell_2007/071017_Max_The_Capacity.pdf

In 2004, in a surprise spurt of world oil demand growth above the 3% mark for the year, capacity utilization of existing crude production leaped from a relatively tight 96% rate in 2003 to an all-time high (post WWII) of 98%. This suggested to oil traders around the world that the last bit of "cushion" had been removed against events of a weather kind, and/or manipulative acts that could disrupt crude oil output and push our oil-based economies into trouble. Prices began to advance rapidly out of fear that if any one "hotspot" around the globe, such as Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria or Russia, came under renewed political or military pressure, the last 1.7 million b/d of available output could be taken up immediately, and the wheels of industry, commerce and personal travel could slow, or even stop across the board. This type of economic disruption had been seen before in WWII, and in several major energy crises since that time. It remains one of the major threats to our modern society, now so highly dependant on hydrocarbon fuels. (pleases click link above for more)

Charles T. Maxwell

RE: McGraw Hill - they are talking about liquidity when this is a solvency crisis. A SIV just went bankrupt this week. Seems like an evasive answer to me.

At minyanville there is speculation that the Fed may cut rates tomorrow in a surprise attack. They cut rates on an option Friday at 3:11pm when the bond markets were closed in 1998 in a blatant attempt to prop up the markets. Not likely, but needs to be on our radar.

Peak Oil is Here

http://www.mcdep.com/mr71002.pdf

Barron’s : Did Somebody Say Energy Crisis?
- Interview with Charley Maxwell

Q: Where are oil prices headed?

We are now getting a reaction to the higher oil prices. It is translating into slower economic growth and, of course, it is allied with a rise in interest rates. Don’t think that it is just that rising oil prices equal lower economic growth. It is a question of rising oil prices and less liquidity and higher rates that’s a triple threat. The bottom could be in the high 40s, though that wouldn’t be sustainable. On a yearly average, we will stay in the 60s, but we’ll spend a lot of time in the 50s. Then they’ll start up again in 2008-2009 and go up for some time. When we get to 130 or 150 there will be another pullback.

Q: How are you advising people when it comes to the oil stocks?

You want to buy companies that have long-life reserves and are developing them, it’s as simple as that. The average oil company, because they are all in the non-OPEC world, will by definition peak around 2010 or thereabouts. I estimate Exxon will peak in 2011. BP will peak in 2012. Total (TOT) in 2012. ConocoPhillips (COP) in 2013. Marathon Oil (MRO) in 2009. Royal Dutch (RDS-B) in 2009 and Hess (HES) in 2010. But a company like Suncor Energy (SU), which operates in the Canadian tar sands, will peak around 2045. It is a completely different world. EnCana (ECA), the big Canadian gas and tar sands producer, will peak around 2020. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) is another. I also like Nexen (NXY), another Canadian tar sands producer, and Lukoil (LUKOY) of Russia. The only one I’m recommending at the moment is EnCana because it has a large component of natural gas. The gas market is at a bottom now, whereas I see the oil market bottoming in the spring or summer of 2007 (Apr-June or July-Sep), or even early 2008 if we have a recession.

Trends in Energy and Base Metals: Identifying the Drivers (January 25, 2007)

http://www.usfunds.com/docs/presentations/energy_base_metals_01252007/viewhtml.asp

chas, that appears sometimes. It might be a priving glitch. Kitco messes up once in a while.

Here's one thing about the Kitco charts that drives me nuts. The Kitco charts show three days.

So many times the daily traces EXACTLY parallel each other, to the point of bumps and squiggles appearing in the same place, separated by a few bucks and 24 hours or whatever. I don't see how that can be. I imagine gold traders getting up to get coffee or hit the can at the same time every day or something, causing the same trace squiggle. Why else would it be?

It just seems odd.

Matt Simmon - Is The World’s Energy Supply Sustainable?

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Coloardo%20College%20March%205%20to%207.pdf

Is Hydrocarbon Energy Entering Its Twilight Age?
(If So, Can The World Survive?)

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/UNH%20April%2023%202007.pdf

Is Hydrocarbon Energy Entering Its Twilight Age?
(If So, Can The World Survive?)

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/UNH%20April%2023%202007.pdf

Energy In A Post-Peak World

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/National%20Association%20of%20Industrial%20Office%20Properties%20April%2025.pdf

Bank of America (BAC) missed net income estimates by 25% yet the stock is only down 3.5% today. Also, where are the analysts with their typical "after the fact" downgrades? I don't get it!

I am also liking the Crystallex trade here. Will buy today most likely.

Rob d--no apology needed. I knew that you were kidding!

Global Economy Now Slowing Down - Henry To

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8600.htm

MikeNYC,
I don't think there is a price. I think this happens like a big teeter-totter. As USD goes lower oil goes higher (more wooden nickels per bbl) and it permeates all aspects of the economy, which moves into stagflation as we teeter.

It's more a process than a turning point. We're in it now as USD is markedly falling, oil is rising, PM's rising, commodities rising, food rising. Jobs falling, retail falling.

Of course there will be retracements along the way.

Bill has explained it several times and he does much better than I do, but if you really look at it, the Fed has no choice. And the first rule is don't fight the Fed.

MikeNYC,
I don't think there is a price. I think this happens like a big teeter-totter. As USD goes lower oil goes higher (more wooden nickels per bbl) and it permeates all aspects of the economy, which moves into stagflation as we teeter.

It's more a process than a turning point. We're in it now as USD is markedly falling, oil is rising, PM's rising, commodities rising, food rising. Jobs falling, retail falling.

Of course there will be retracements along the way.

Bill has explained it several times and he does much better than I do, but if you really look at it, the Fed has no choice. And the first rule is don't fight the Fed.

Dangit! I got the error code and even cut the text and reloaded the page to be sure I wouldn't dbl post.

Sorry, I tried.

"Analysts are becoming more convinced that the recent write-downs on Wall Street are the first in what will be a series of charges that banks will take during the next few quarters."

A new column on the credit crunch by David Weidner:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=David+Weidner's+Writing+on+the+Wall

SRI.V --- 0.34
SPNRF.PK - 0.306
interesting article, anyone knows about this company?
http://www.spartonres.ca/

World Nuclear News: Uranium

Sparton Resources announced that it had successfully produced a small quantity of yellowcake (U3O8) from fly ash from a Chinese coal-fired power plant.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/explorationNuclearFuel/Sparton_produces_first_yellowcake_from_Chinese_coal_ash-161007.shtml

does anyone else show a 14.90 intraday low for GFI? Did I miss something or was that a fatal fat finger?

IB time & sales shows 150,400 sh @ 14.90 @ 11:48:56EST (should be EDT).

Hey Bill! I have a great story to share about a virtual investment website. Can you send me an email to send it to?
Thanks, David

T3D -

Most recent mac portable experience, my daughter's macbook, was NOT a macbookpro. And, maybe it's US, or maybe it's traveling too much with mac-laps, or maybe it's less than durable manufacture. I'm just tired of pesky mac portables, and will go IMAC.

The OS is MUCH better than PC, no question about that!

Craig: I see day low on Fidelity for GFI as 17.73 (USD)

MikeNYC

Yes I too have noticed this on Kitco.

"So many times the daily traces EXACTLY parallel each other... bumps and squiggles ...appearing in the same place...... I imagine gold traders getting up to get coffee or hit the can at the same time every day .... Why else would it be?

My take has always been they seem to coincide with the opening or closing of the different markets around the world, just another thought.

Quasi

Denny:
I am howling with laughter.
Oh well, at least bank of america's loan is well-secured!
Anticipating a raft of financial sector disappointments during Q3 reporting, I bought XLF puts on tues.
Good luck.
joey

The Gurvanbulag uranium deposit in Mongolia could be developed to produce uranium oxide (U3O8) for an average cost of $24 per pound.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/explorationNuclearFuel/Figures_for_new_uranium_mine.shtml

Did anyone read Don Coxe's, The Ghosts of Octobers Past that someone posted yesterday? I don't know what to take out of it regarding the oil sands in Alberta. It seems like the author has plenty 'o bad to say about the tax proposals, but I didn't see a clear message about what the govenrment is likely to do, and doing is important.

http://www.beearly.com/pdfFiles/BMO%20NB%20BP%20Oct%202007.pdf

sorry I can't get in on the Crystallex trade don't like the slow stochastic on the daily and the hourly breakout failed.

2nd and Jogy,
Are you holding QID into GOOG earnings?

Craig:

Fidelity Time & Sales shows GFI:

@11:48:49 $17.88 300 Shares
@11:48:56 $14.9009 150,400 Shares
@11:52:45 $17.9009 150,400 Shares

craig- good question...wondering if the bulls have enough powder to take the Naz up AH three nights in a row...i'll wait and see how it closes...

Craig - IMO since everyone is expecting great earnings from GOOG, its likey that whatever they announce may not be good enough.

Yes, I am planning to hold some QID into GOOG earnings.

Denny -

My take from Coxe is that:

- sure the Alberta provincial tax proposals are bad, but they won't pass except in a diluted form, and

- that Alberta is SURE to be better for US majors to deal with than Tehran, Baku, Caracas or Lagos. thus,

- Alberta is where the XOM's, COP's, and CVX's will replenish their reserves.

- Of course, this depends upon $50+/barrel oil. but is that in doubt now?

Craig:

Also holding on to QID; GOOG represents 5+% of QQQQ (as of 6/30)holdings. However I am viewing this as a position trade - not ST.

Jock, thanks.

As memory serves me the Mac Genius I spoke with preferred the iMac choice unless I really needed portability. I do not as I can always use a PC laptop.

Yesterday at the Apple store I compared the MacbookPro versus the iMac using Beesoft’s ProTA program. There was no difference in performance as all charts were instantaneous. All models tested had 2 gigs of memory.

For those interested you can go to beesoft’s web site and download the program and sample data folder to get the feel of ProTA.

The link is: http://www.beesoft.net/

Folks great discussion on oil today starting with Leisa’s article. BA looks interesting here for a trade, long.

Jock:
Re Rusoro , and your invitation from yesterday for commentary, which I just read:
“I'm more intrigued by RML.V, Rusoro, majority owned by Russians and touted as "THE consolidator" for VZ gold properties.
Maybe THEY can please Hugo !
Anybody know anything about RML.V?”
My observation: A few days ago, I was reading a Research Note issued by RBC Capital Markets about Western Goldfields (increasing the target price to $4.50Cdn). The report included a bar chart depicting the market cap per oz of total gold resources of 31 emerging gold producers. The avg is approx. $75; Rusoro’s, approx. $70; Crystallex, approx. $30; and Gold Reserve, approx.$15. Western Goldfields is one of the highest at approx. $115.
When I saw that, (and without foreknowledge of Rusoro as a putative consolidator), I thought to myself : “ I think I know who’s taking out KRY.”
Regards
joey

RobBoss,
Yes, but if GOOG knocks it out of the park, then tech will rally, esp infotech, and QID will not.....if you know what I mean. If not, then I'll make some good $$$ on QID and maybe short GOOG. So market weight is only part of the picture.

Bought May 60 puts on Crude Oil today @ $400/put. Seasonal lows into Winter. There is a lot of fat in the price right now that will most likely dissipate and hedge funds take profits. Reverting to the mean as usual.

UUU.to - a nice take off earlier today. I hope some here got in on a nice entry last week. I am almost back to my cost basis.

Uranium bull is alive and kicking - time to play catch up.

Gold Fields Started With $21.50 Tgt By National Bk >GFILast update: 10/18/2007 9:31:21 AM(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

SAW THIS ON MY TD Ameritrade Streamer.

Billy, sold UUU today. Also bought MOR at .19 (oscillates between .19 and .24), as well as puts on CSCO (Brazil) and BMO. BMO is suspected to have $22B involved in ABCP in the US that will come into the balance sheet as a big write down.

stktrader, you don't think the USD will keep falling? With the USD falling it's hard for oil to come come down.

URANIUM

REUTERS UPDATE 1-Uranium miners see output rising but market tight [HHVDJDD]

By Anna Stablum

LONDON, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Uranium miners said on Thursday they were raising output in a bid to meet rampant global demand sparked by interest in atomic energy, but prices are expected to remain strong due to tight markets.

Australian uranium miner Paladin Resources Ltd said it expected to produce 900,000 pounds of uranium in 2007, adding that output could reach 2.6 million pounds in 2008 and 3.5 million pounds in 2009.

Speaking at an industry roundtable in London, the company's CEO, John Borshoff, also said he saw the uranium spot price at $105-110 per pound in the first quarter of next year.

"The world is still massively short of uranium. Production delays due to shortages of skilled miners and equipment would keep the market tight for several years to come," Borshoff said.

For six years until November 2003, spot uranium prices hovered between $8 and $12/lb, before rising sharply as concerns about greenhouse gas emissions prompted renewed interest in nuclear energy.

Spot uranium hit a record high of $136 per pound in June and, although it has fallen from that level to around $78, global demand for the metal has never been higher.

Strong demand from the nuclear industry has triggered a global hunt for the metal.

Denison Mines Corp. said it expected to produce 700,000 pounds of uranium in 2007, rising to 2.5-2.9 million pounds in 2008, while Uranium Resources Inc said it expected its uranium output to run at 400,000 to 500,000 pounds per year in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

"We're actively looking for exploration areas in Texas to expand that production capacity," Uranium Resources CEO David Clark said.

"Demand for primary production in 2030 will be more than triple what it is today, it will be more than 360 million pounds," he added.

Competition is fierce amongst the miners themselves, with even equipment proving hard to obtain.

"To get ... a large truck for an open pit mine is a two-year delivery," Denison's CEO Ron Hochstein said.

(

Sio2, hope you made some nice gains in UUU.to - it should never have been that cheap the other day, but I guess thats what happens in highly speculative markets. Traders caught off guard with outsized positions and no funds to support the stock price are forced to bail.

I still think UUU.to has a long way to go. It is already tapping around its 50 DMA (11.65 or so) which I think it will bust through with volume.

Still amazed at my (bad) luck that I started buying into both UUU.to and UXG in the last couple weeks!

UXG, get back to work.

KHAN Resources
KRI-T

Mentioned by Bill on this blog.Up 10 % on near double vol.

For what its worth>Doug Casey Energy Speculator Top Pick for the year.
Long KRI

GOOG- what are the odds an earnings disappointment becomes the catalyst for capitulation in the bull camp...just wondering....

hello anyone,

know of a site for OIL price?? To watch like Kitco?

Thanks much.

...or that the opposite scenario->bears cave in?

Joey -

Interesting. If Rusoro did take out KRY and/or GRZ, maybe it might not be at the price a western buyer would pay in a market transaction!

UUU, 10.05 on Oct 12, 11.19 today, that's enough. The way I see it, this whole market can come crashing any minute, so happy to get out fast or lower ACB whenever possible.

GSX: It's really interesting to watch these level ii quotes. There was a TON of selling and new asks coming in (small orders, usualy below 1000 shares, but lots of them) at 2.25, then after handling those for some time, it popped up beyond that.

There are a couple thousand for sale sitting at 2.30, too.

It's neat to see the bid and/or ask stall and accumulate, accumulate, higher, higher, nothing moving, and finally someone blinks under the pressure, and things happen.

Sorry if everyong is tired of hearing about this. But it's kind of fascinating to see two sides stare each other down like that. Market in action.

2nd,
Exactly, GOOG could really move this thing one way or the other.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/page/marketsdata.html?mod=2_3000

Moneygenie: Try the above link. I have a subscription. I'm not sure if this is free or not. I highly recommend it if you are not a subscriber. YOu can see real time market breadth if you care about those sorts of things. (at least I think it is real time).

Long PAL It's made a nice daily hammer after the drop, price is moving and I didn't want it to get away, indicators nice.

Also happily long IVAN long GSX for position trades, great looking dailies.

There are many oil prices, naturally.

Here's the NYMEX front month. This is the one often quoted when the headline says "Oil futures close over $89" or stuff like that.

Not as entertaining as the Kitco chart. But quite good, free and intraday, though delayed.

They are also the source of the DX link I posted earlier today. Put them both up there and watch as we all go down the tubes.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.X07&v=s

Stcokcharts gives you lots of TA chart options. but is only the daily close price for free.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC

Mike...I've developed a trading style that's not reliant on knowing that it's Merrill Lynch doing the buying or the selling. Now that I've got this system working, I'm hesitant to complicate matters!

Sio2,

Didn't mean to suggest you shouldn't have taken such a nice ST profit on UUU. No one ever lost taking profits - especially 10% in a week. I'm just reiterating my general bullishness on U and U equities.

I think that 10.01 was the bottom on UUU last week - long term. Only time will tell.

B

Escaling food prices, nothing new here: "Danone SA last month describing dairy cost increases as ``unprecedented'' and ``brutal."

"Nestle SA said it withstood soaring dairy costs by raising prices for Dreyer's ice cream and nutritional food. Hershey Co., focused on the less lucrative milk chocolate Nestle is moving away from, reported profit fell.

Milk prices climbed as lower production in Australia, France and New Zealand coincides with surging demand. Commodity prices are eroding earnings across the food industry..."

Unless you are a raw producer!

From Bloomberg (http://tinyurl.com/2wr36b)

it's going to be bullsbears into the close...have no take whatsoever on the "google" effect but holding QID...for better or worse...

Yeah, I don't think level ii is a trading thing, for me. I'm not a daytrader. I'm sure I'll get bored. But the back and forth is kinda cool.

I just re-read the part of Trading Room where Elder says he has never seen level ii help a trader that much. Maybe when it first came out, but not so much now. But then again, I know a couple of guys who day trade momo plays and they use it pretty effectively. Not for me.

There's no names on the trades, BTW. Just numbers, #shares and price. So it's probably not like real level ii.

But hey, watching it beats working on this Very Important Memo I have to write!

Shark, drop me a note at hideflife@yahoo.com, if you have a second.

Yeah, I don't think level ii is a trading thing, for me. I'm not a daytrader. I'm sure I'll get bored. But the back and forth is kinda cool.

I just re-read the part of Trading Room where Elder says he has never seen level ii help a trader that much. Maybe when it first came out, but not so much now. But then again, I know a couple of guys who day trade momo plays and they use it pretty effectively. Not for me.

There's no names on the trades, BTW. Just numbers, #shares and price. So it's probably not like real level ii.

But hey, watching it beats working on this Very Important Memo I have to write!

Shark, drop me a note at hideflife@yahoo.com, if you have a second.

Darnit! It happened to me. I even reloaded to make sure I wouldn't post a dupe after the error. Rats! I guess I'll have to reload twice next time it happens to make sure. Sorry.

Some neat info over at Stockcharts. They've introduced a "ticker cloud" which provides a graphical display of:

"...a list of the 200 most popular stocks on StockCharts.com right now based on intraday chart requests during the past 15 minutes. The larger the symbol, the more popular the stock. Click on any ticker symbol to see a SharpChart of that stock."

Interesting that almost a quarter of the tickers in the group are TSE listings.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/tickercloud.html

shark- "I've developed a trading style that's not reliant on knowing that it's Merrill Lynch doing the buying or the selling. Now that I've got this system working, I'm hesitant to complicate matters!"

to paraphrase todd harrison, if it were easy, it wouldn't be called trading, it would be called going to the bank....;)

2nd_ave -

Capitulation is more likely with a failure from AAPL; GOOG has still too much "techie" aura for a couple of relative disappointment. JMHO.

JML

GOOG around 630 after hours.
(EBAY was around 44 after hours yesterday)

At 16:00 close of market, GFI 213,000 block trade at 18.12.

UXG 16:01 block trade 37,400 @4.83

Jim Rogers who was on the commodity boom and weak dollar before almost everyone, recommends opening foreign bank accounts after the dollar rally he expects----too many on the short dollar side right now.

http://tinyurl.com/2w6bl9

jogyp- actually, goog beat (3.91 vs 3.78), briefly topped 648...this could be a rollercoaster, though...

So what's a likely Rusaro buyout price for KRY?

Seamus, the Jim Rogers article is interesting. What I find fascinating is when he says IF China develops a bubble (market double in the next year or two) then he would sell. Wow.

List of the Cara 100 with RSI data: http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

CEO and SHI

I bought a tad of each of these Chinese oil companies in the darkest hours of August 16th at $46 and $97 respectively. I felt like a genius when I sold them only a couple weeks later for $67 and $125.

Now they are $98 and $193. Up over 100% each in 2 months. China bubble, perhaps?

Now I feel I should explain. I only buy when there are multiple indications that I am correct. I don't try to play turns, I try to take the middle out of moves, holding longer now than once before, and adding to winners instead of just cashing them in.

I have a very high winning percentage, and pretty ok dollar gains, so I'm hesitant to fix what aint broke.

Magnolia,
There are responses to your question at the moderated site: agoracom.com. Type in KRY and you will meet KRY fanatics that speculate on every angle of KRY's possibilities; in a good way with logical theories and the latest news.

SiO2,
Since your question to me is futures related, this is my response as to crude oil in that environment. Dennis Gartman has two trading rules that say:
1. Understanding psychology is usually more important than understanding economics. and
2. The hard trade is the right trade. If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this 25 years ago and it hold truer now than ever.
The futures markets are driven heavily by fear and greed to the 10th power. The profits and losses can be extreme. That is why I stay away from the commodity itself and trade the options. Otherwise I would be freaking out. I only bought 2 puts as a starting position. I will average in as oil moves to $100/barrel. That is my hope. When it hits that number and it reads out on the front page of the newspaper, that will be the biggest exit in history through that very small door. It has taken me 4-6 weeks to even get into this position. I have had orders in that I could not fill almost everyday since that time and I could not get filled. I have a full six months for this to play out. That is a lifetime in the futures pits. Remember last year when oil went from $78 to $49 in a month?

The way I play those speculative parabolic foreign investments like FXI is every time it grows another 20% or so I sell that 20% of the position. I do miss the compounding effect but at least I get some profit out of this craze. There is no easy way to put a reliable stop loss in such investment. If FXI crashes at some point (and I think it will) it will happen overnight and open sharply lower next morning so the stops will be overshot.

Thank you stktrader. Re. rule no. 2, you can always find a place where it applies, but in general, I am not so sure. Quite a bit of people think that oil is too high. As I have posted before, I am not in this camp. However, corrections are inevitable, just like with gold, and particularly if the whole market goes down the drain. May I ask, you are buying puts on what exactly? How about puts on USO? I have been tempted but those too, but the timing is critical, just not right now. Pretty much my entire portfolio now consists of miners (long) and some puts, and slowly increasing cash position.

Gold is performing quite well tonight.

SiO2,
I have a small futures trading account with Xpresstrade that I use to go direct to the futures market. I am an Ameritrade client in my trading/retirement accounts, but futures are not offered. I like Ameritrade, so I am staying. Futures are leveraged 10 to 1 in the Crude Oil contracts unlike USO. A dollar move in Crude Oil is a $1000.00 usd move in the futures. Because of that leverage, psychology is a driving force that can outweigh the economics behind the commodity. Commodities swing wildly when the few that play that game change direction causing everyone to join in, like it or not. That is where I can pick my exit calmly with options.

Stocktrader: Thank you for that synopsis. One of the hardest things I have to fight with myself is my reluctance to get on momo trains and the like. I do like the buy red sell green which I think equates with doing the "hard trade".

SEED started to perk up. I was dithering at $9.30 about adding and before you know it, it closed about $10.2X.

Bill

If you did a radio show, you could stream it live or webcast it for access throughout the world, just like your blog. What am I saying--of course it would be podcast!

Perhaps a weekly broadcast, like your WIR would be the way to go. This would allow you some time for all the other goals you seek to accomplish.

Capital Markets of Mexico = Carlos Slim?

A recent article said the Carlos controls companies representing 34% of the capitalization of the Mexican market! Amazing ....

Re: Vicente Fox - he's a "simpatico" guy, now taking his victory lap through NAFTA-land. (On the Daily Show he called Bush "the cockiest guy he ever met" and a "windshield cowboy" = more comfortable in a pickup truck than on a horse!LOL)

Sad thing is, however, that Fox was unable to command even his own party. The (critical) tax and labor reforms he proposed were not enacted. There was no job growth during his term. Also, he was unable to open Mexico's energy sector to private capital. Thus, Cantarelle's oil production is falling off a cliff.

It shows how hard it is for a clearly brilliant business guy to become effective in a tough, vindictive political system.

I was reading some story about a young mexican guy, and his goal in life was to become a notary. I thought, "That's odd. What a peculiar thing to aspire to."

Then I learned that the system for getting anything built or getting many things done requires the approval(s) of a notary. These have become choke points of bribery and corruption. One of the many.

"Ah-HAH!"

Until systemic corruption is tackled, and violent crime, which according to Wikipedia (and anecdotal newspaper accounts) is on the upswing, is reduced in a meaningful way, I don't see how they can get very far.

Mexican presidents seem, at least to my far, far, away, and unknowledgeable eyes, more concerned about the sustained flow of workers into the US, and maintaining the flow of remittances back into Mexico, than making hard choices at home.

But I'm sure no expert.

This seems like a pretty good article from last year, and gives some charts and stats on the lack of growth in Mexico, relative to some developing nation peers.

From the National Review Online:

Southern Corruption
The failures of Mexico’s government fuel illegal immigration.

"Alberto Saracho, executive director of Mexico City’s IDEA Foundation, is refreshingly candid about why his countrymen flee his homeland. “There are institutions, some established in the colonial years, that still curb people’s freedom to work, produce, and prosper,” Saracho says. “The oligopolistic public-notary system charges steep fees to certify mandatory paperwork. Our tax code guarantees special privileges for many groups. This has made the state more an obstacle than a friend to progress.”"

http://tinyurl.com/37t4dp

But yes, Fox is a charming guy. He was very funny on John Stewart.

In an unrelated note, I dig some digging and found out why GSX is moving. I may hold this longer than I thought I would. I'll post it tomorrow.

Bill,

I'm a recent reader with a question for you & your experienced reader base. I am constantly amazed at the breadth of knowledge here and feel at ease in asking what may be to most here a simple question.

In a taxable account, I am holding several US & Canadian O&G Trusts which are primarily Income producers(Mom's in Nursing Care). The problem(if you can call it that) is that I have held these issues for 4-5 years and they have appreciated immensely and like everyone here I too am expecting a severe correction starting in the November-December timeframe. In the past I just let everything ride and came out just a little worse for the wear, but made it up over time. After this past August and prior Halloween however, I feel as I would like to try something different. I will sell those with little Capital Appreciation or losses and Hold the two with the 4X-5X gains as I really don't care to pay the Cap gains tax(high 5 figures) or give up the monthly income.

My question is: What methods are available to gain some level of portfolio insurance against the expected 20-25% losses(Alberta Tax Grab & US correction)? Can anything be done before Oct 24th?

HNCadet

Bill: Please feel free to cut & dice this as necessary