Morning,
As per Bloomberg, gold is up $7.90, @ 761.70.
Debt machine going into overdriveas per M3, rest of this month should be interesting.

You have to wonder to what extent growth and GDP numbers are a direct consequence of the influence of the credit bubble and not necessarily economic activity.

onlineaces,

The link in the previous post to mediafire tells me the file is private. Any ideas?

Here's some statistics on the top 10 vehicles "shopped" in August, 2007. NSANY looks like a good play here if it breaks through Oct. high. TM seems to be near a year-low too.

http://blog.compete.com/2007/10/12/most-shopped-cars/

Also, the Bill Cara chart looks to be dipping a bit. Get that computer fixed soon!

http://siteanalytics.compete.com/billcara.com/

I wonder what stress ranking computer failure falls under when looking at statistics on divorce, moving, job firing, fire, burglary, book publishing, etc? :)

I hear Macs have a good reputation; maybe not so much the iPhone though. :)

http://tinyurl.com/yqcnyz

Bill,
I have to agree with slower growth projection as the 1.8% you mentioned this AM.
Last week I posted Relative Employment analysis of Fincacial Services/Mining & Natural Resouces.
This points to P/E contraction of the overall Stock Market.Also, Goods-Producing/Education & Health point to a slowdown.
See "Relative Employment: the Bad and the Ugly."

Yesterday I showed a chart of Net Exports for the US. It has improved recently.
It is striking how in past recessions,Net Exports improved each time.

Hi wavesmash,

The posted private file is only a Daily RSI 7 scenario, not the Daily,Weekly,Monthly RSI 7 scenario Bill has taught us which is a work in progress at the moment.

I will make the original file public again. Just know it's only a Daily RSI 7.

As noted above, TM can be had right now (pre-mkt) @ a new 52 wk low.

Guys,

I gleaned an important insight this weekend.

The stock market is at all-time highs, even though we are 9 months into a credit crunch, 2 years into a housing disaster, sitting on the edge of "recession", and stocks are not reflecting those realities at all.

Most people consider an end to the bull market, whether it's now or a few months from now to be likely, it's become the accepted wisdom.

But my point is, the stock market, which is a predictor of economic activity as well as a reflection of it is not betting on a recession. The stock market is, due most likely to the inflation problems (more to come with this bailout thingy) and the dirth of acceptable yield alternatives, THE STOCK MARKET WILL BREAK THOUGH THESE HIGHS AND GO MUCH HIGHER!

Gold will see 800 before Thanksgiving

Good morning friends in the Northern hemisphere.

I have just posted my regular weekly article highlighting some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and few performance charts.

Please follow the following link for the "words from the wise":

http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/14/words-from-the-wise-for-the-week-that-was-oct-8-to-14-2007/

PS: I will be visiting New York from October 19 - 21 and New Orleans from October 22 - 24, should any fellow market aficionados wish to meet to discuss markets, etc. over a cup of coffee (or glass of wine).

shark_attack,

I am kicking myself. Bailed on GSS on FRIDAY, gots scared I guess. Oh Well.

Did you hold it over the weekend ??

What to do now ........ I have my GFI so am comforted. The "market is a MASTER teacher, so much like life!!!

I am determined to learn and win it though.

Good day to all.

Thank you to all and everyone here. I hope it is understood that I am grateful always to those who offer help to me specificaaly sometimes. I do not reply with Thank yous each time so as not to clog page. So for now and always, Thank you all.

Everbank--from today's Daily Pfennig:

"The Central Bank Gold Agreement, which was signed 3 years ago, and gives quotas for Central Banks to meet with regards to Gold Sales... The Bank for International Settlement issued a statement on Friday that showed the total for 2008 to be 24 tons short of the total 500 tons scheduled for sale. At the same time, the German Central Bank, the Bundesbank, announced that they would not participate in Gold sales this year...

Chuck Butler (Daily Pfennig author) further surmises "It looks like other Central Banks aren't going to pick up the slack that is short in the quota . . "

Sharkie,

It surely can be pumped much higher, provided HB&B get their borrowed time and cash. I was concerned about this same thing. With this M-LEC bailout scheme, won't they likely get the elbow room to ignite an equity craze much like 1999-2000 and unload comfortably into it, saving their hide and nailing Joe Public twice in the process?

Desperation is a bad advisor, and if the market suddenly seems again like the unstoppable magical solution to every beleaguered homeowner's problem, how many from the public could be lured in? and when it's all over among ruins the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world will have taken place - as Bill wrote a few months ago.

It's an uncomfortable scenario. The question is whether there's enough social irresponsibility, financial firepower and regulatory authority complicity to allow for it. Large interests seem aligned, if one considers the US election timeframe. This last week's concerted Goldilocks efforts made me wonder of what's next much like along your lines... whether I should close my shorts and run for the hills. Well. The next two or so weeks will show.

Case

You've hit the nail on the head IMO. It's a delicate act to trade, but if the public comes in big time over the next month or two, run don't walk for the exit.

onlineaces, another question, does it use closing daily prices or intra-day lows and highs for the triggers?

Would it be possible to also publish the complete data source (list of all stock values and computed RSI values for each day in those 7 years)? We can get this from yahoo, but is a large wasted bandwidth.

Again, many thanks for what you have done.

Yes I held GSS, will add more.

"How much will have to be borrowed from the future to pay for the sins of the past?"

So nicely put Bill.

shark- with all due respect, just be careful...

NOT at 5.20, unfortunately sold at 4, but a fun stock to trade.

NOT- yes, that and UNG (now up another 4%) are the two positions i most regret clearing out of last week...;)

Thanks 2nd....I am always careful.

adding to DUG, opening position in SMN...

SLW

TD Waterhouse technical analysis this morning describing Ascending Continuation Triangle, (bullish indicator), with target price somewhere mid $18.

Disclosure: I got interested in this one after reading Bill's opinions and went long several months ago. I have seen TD Waterhouse be both right and wrong on their TA calls, (which should be no surprise), so this is just offered as information of interest.

Nice morning move in SKF. Up 2.2%

Out of NOT @ 5.24

Bill, Re. "... If the dollar figure is pegged by HB&B at $100 billion as needed to plug the holes in the already burst credit market, could the real number be $1 trillion or more?"

$100B may be peanuts indeed. According to Satyajit Das, supposedly an expert in credit derivatives and risk management, up to 53% of the global $2.2. trillion commercial paper is now asset-backed, with about 50% of that in mortgages. Earlier this year, the total value of the creative derivatives that were made of these was about $485 trillion (with a "T").

In the meantime, oil hits %85 and change, and some experts still say they cannot understand why oil is so high. Oil, priced in USD, is cheap.

BTW, Mucho Thanks to Si02 for the heads up on NOT.

I get today's blind squirrel award.

But Bodman says it's because we need more supply...

Can people really be that stupid?

"But my point is, the stock market, which is a predictor of economic activity as well as a reflection of it is not betting on a recession."

The stock market did not predict the credit crisis or the continuing problems in homebuilders. The stock market vis a vis the bond market "predicted" that the Fed would cut rates about 16 mos prior to the Fed actually doing so.

Personally, I would not put much faith in the market's ability to predict. We can see what the market "hopes" for, but prediction?

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/265475
Banks raise mortgage rates.
Bill,
The major banks here in Canada have been steadily raising mortgage rates this year. I guess they have done the dirty work for the Bank of Canada so, no need to raise the key lending rate here I believe. Besides if they do raise the key lending rate what would happen to the Canadian dollar? I would not be surprised to see a rate cut here with the banks standing pat on mortgage rates for now.

Anyone else unloading into this PM craze? I sold off about 40% of my remaining holdings this morning at decent prices, although I must say I sold my PAAS portion too early (shot up 60 cents after I sold at 31.65... all in a matter of 5 min)

This rally has been unreal, and the charts are all looking fantastic, except that RSI-7 Dailies are high, RSI-14 Dailies are also high! This thing can only go so far before people will want to take some serious profits!

Go with the flow...OR...Realize gains;
Does she love me...OR...Does she not?
I think that I could take the prize for the most malcontent investor who is still making money. Have we ever seen so many V snap backs? Mr. Greed has been saying that the GDX just can not help itself but that it has moved up into a new range and will make fence setters suffer until they just have to get back in. Mr. Careful is on hiatus and will not be making any more adjustments to his hedged heavy cash port.

Hi Bill,

Over the weekend you cautioned investors to tighten stops and have a finger on the sell button for the many instruments that are now in the distribution zone.

I am holding on to numerous commodity and PM positions waiting for the "final blow off" phase to occur. Could you please clarify if your words of caution were directed towards the short/near term traders who play the accumulation/distribution zones or do you feel that the bear is now ready to growl.

As always, thank you for blogging.

Leisa,

As you know, Dow theory was originally designed so that the market could be utilized as a predictor of economic activity; in more recent times this relationship has been turned on it's head (economic activity used to predict the stock market).

My point is, we've had a severe contraction business and consumer wise, worse than the government is admitting. We've got the worst real estate bust since the early '90's if not since the Great Depression. In addition, the market should be particularly vulnerable after a 5 year advance. Yet, in the midst of all this negative news, the stock market is trading just below all time highs. The fact that the stock market has been a lot stronger than it should have been tells me that it's likely to go higher.

RML.V - anyone know the company?

Rusoro just bought GFI's Choco 10 mine in Venezuela. Majority owned by Russians, apparently with several years in VZ, they were touted by one broker as "THE consolidator" for VZ gold properties.

Maybe they know how to get along with Hugo better than KRY and GRZ do?

I can see the woods better than the trees in the financial arena, because I don't have the necessary education in financial charts, etc., to even give much of an opinion. I am truly amazed of the knowledge of the bloggers on this board.

But, from the perspective of a novice looking at the "woods", it seems - on a gut level - that we are sitting on a giant bubble (stock market in general) that is going to burst sooner or later. I hope later. That's the unknown. I'm now in cash (money mkt) except for KRY which I got back in on a dip. Still waiting on that final permit and hope it comes before golds' peak price comes through and then heads for a dip. Timing is everything.

"I think that I could take the prize for the most malcontent investor who is still making money."

couldn't happen to a nicer guy;)

"Mr. Careful is on hiatus and will not be making any more adjustments to his hedged heavy cash port."

i've always maintained it's nice to have some fun while managing one's port, and likened it to table games at vegas...musical chairs, on the other hand, is downright irresponsible [which is why you only do it with OPM ;)]

You have really look at the reason at the US market "appears" to be trading higher and that reality is that the devaluation of the US dollar is pushing up the S&P in absolute terms, but far less in other currencies or gold terms.

The reality is that this will continue and the stocks will head up in US$ until foreign investors will get fed up with not making money in the US and start dumping and then I think you'll see a big woosh.

It is happenning already with various countries announcing that they are diversifying away from the US$. Also, did you see Japanese bank Nomura holdings today announced that they dumped about $2 billion of US mortgage loans and took a $620 million writedown.

Chris, I think you have a hunk of crud on your crystal ball, give it a quick wipe and see if that doesn't help! Probably Henry Paulson's finger print or something.....

any news regarding Valgold? seems quite
tepid today.

Dr. Cosa,
"Tepid"? I'm feeling quite the chill. My averaged cost is 53 cents and I have too much VAL now to buy any more. I console myself by repeating this mantra, "Chavez is my friend!".

The market will go up until it doesn't. I don't think the market is a good predictor of economic activity, especially in bubble. Bubbles start with a viable thesis but devolve into delusion. Pets.com anyone? And bubbles are happening much more often.

Right now, I think HBB has convinced everyone that black is white. My brother is a broker with a large firm. Last night he was trying to convince me that a weaker dollar is good for the US, inflation is low, that cutting interest rates to avoid recession is preferable to recession, and sovereign wealth funds will prop up the market. The weird thing is he would answer some of my arguments, like a inflation is stealing from sthose who save with non-sequitor answers straight from the HBB playbook. He is a smart guy too. He was telling his clients to buy the dip in August.

Every dip is to be bought. When the turn comes, many small investors will be way too long. Then again, if the Fed inflates enough they may be able to avoid any downturn with hyperinflation.

I have been highly bearish since January and even I am starting to doubt the market will go down. Maybe the turn is near?

Is the Canadian paper industry dead? I've been looking at Catalyst Paper Corp. (CTL). The company has been really hammered this year, along with the other paper companies. I'm only interested in this one because Third Avenue Management (Martin Whitman) owns 38%.

There will be some big winners and big losers in the paper industry. The industry has been so beaten down, but it is doing the right things like shutting down overcapacity and consolidating competitors, so the turnaround will come. It always does, like in the airline industry in 2002 when everyone thought is was completely dead, but there comes a point in every cycle where people pull out due to not being able to make a reasonable return, which in turn makes the returns better for everyone else, which tends to drive the stock prices up a lot as people try ot get back into this industry.

I'm long Abitibi, but Catalyst is fine as well. The key here is to pick one of the ones who will survive and then to be very patient. I would bet in 2 or 3 or 4 years, you will show an excellent return.

UUU.to along with the other U majors (PDN.to, CCJ)are on the rebound today. One of the major uranium tracking indices, TradeTech ticked up the weekly U spot price from $75 to $78 last friday. UXC U index which comes out tonight is also expected to tick upwards from $75. These are the first upward movements for the U indices since peaking around $135-40 earlier in the year. Quite possibly the fulcrum point which should bring in buyers from the sidelines.

I think UUU.to is a good buy under $11. I am still trying to recover from my ill-timed entry on this stock last week.

Moab,

I have also been bearish for a long time now. I have forced myself to limit those gut feeling though to the fringe players. Over past two years that has had me shorting and put buying over past two years in PHM, WCI, FMT, WM, DSL, etc. I have had some successes but always failed if I tried to go into something more mainstream. Basically anything related to US real estate or US mortgage lending has worked. I also believe that at some point this will spread deeper into the system - question of course is when.

Over the next six months if the bearish scenario unfolds I disagree with Bill and many on this site regarding gold price performance. HB&B or the Fed are creating credit. That does not mean "printing money" that means expanding the money supply via debt that MUST BE PAID BACK at some point. The more that credit backed money serves to temporarily inflate asset prices merely suspending the correction the worse the eventual collapse in asset prices will be.

When asset liquidation begins as is alluded to in the current Citibank SIV / Treasury SIV mess no amount of credit backed bailout will save us and we will repeat Japan scenario.

All in my opinion of course.

-Soulek1

Moab,
As someone who ducks into cash from time to time, I look back and see that during a bull market...as now...there are very few days that it pays to be in all cash. Unless there is a intraday sudden and violent downturn on the order of 10plus percent, like with regard to a catastrophic geopolitical event, it pays to be mostly invested with trailing stop losses. This would keep one in the game and by the time there is the downturn one is further ahead than if residing in all cash. Missed opportunity is stealth like in seriously hurting performance not to mention accelerating the impact of inflation on personal worth...of course, all this puts aside issues of personal tolerance for drawdown and a short time horizon. A "trader" can make up a few days or weeks of lost opportunity but I think it's harder for us investors who prefer longer hold times. Ultimately, it's choosing a system that works more often than not and disciplined execution. Over thinking every move and too much caution can be counter productive; I know. Then again, as said elsewhere, no one ever went broke taking profits.

2ndave,
A broad smile....which I can use in spades.

That is the scenario. No one is saying it goes forever. However, expanding money supply by means of shell game is still expanding supply.

When an effort is made to 'pay it back' will be the approx. time to sell PM's and buy USD.

I'm not holding my breath.

Despite being bearish I have only been in all cash rarely this year. I can stomach buying the miners but not much else. I sold some gold miners to protect profits on Thursday but I bought them back (GSS, NAK) a few minutes ago for virtually the same price (and gold is $10 higher). I am bullish on gold in the short run as December gold climbed above resistance at $750. I am keeping them on a short leash though.

On minyanville today a professor analyzed small option trades and found that by this measure small investors are the most bullish since 2000. There I go being bearish again!

I am looking to add Walgreen's once all the negativity has been priced in.

Thanks for the advice.

Moab,

Even if you are bearish, there are always opportunities in the market. It is almost never worth being all in cash as you will miss opportunities. It quite rare that you see all stocks moving down together. This happenned in August, but it is rare. Some of my best profits ever in the market happenned in 2002 when "the market was going down".

Right now, I am buying regional insurance companies (many at less than book value, even though they have no subprime exposure), small-cap consumer products companies with good balance sheets, some beaten down oil service and natural gas stocks and some miners who have not kept up with the rest of the market.

A.TO (Abitibi) looks to be trending towards the upside. Any comments on this dog? :)

I think staying out of the market until November works for me... superstitious I guess.

INFLATION Story #5

Some of you may not perform the household grocery shopping chores as regularly as I do. On a week to week basis, I recorded this past Saturday (10.13.07) price increases on a wide range of products and summarize that bandwidth from a can of dog food, up 10%, to a box of 6-frozen sausage breakfast biscuits climbing 34% !!!!

Ethanol sucks.

SDS - S&P Ultrashort Proshares - looks like it's heading back up.
http://tinyurl.com/2s37nz

UXG: 4.96
Price below 5 could make UXG shares non-marginable in many accounts and a wave of margin selling could send UXG down fast.

Looking to add UXG under 4.5

WGDFF set new YTD all time high and intraday high not by much but it is there:
WGDFF - Q 0.5 3.75 · 3.79 0.5 3.79 +0.19 + 5.3 %

I wonder when the Amex listing and the real news is to come? The real news may be what they are doing with the 70 million plus cash available with the new financing and the amount available on their credit facility.

Go Western!

Craig,

I figure dow 15000 by two weeks before Christmas. What's your pick? We'll see who's crystal ball is clear and whose is cloudy.

UXG - $4.82 - into the abyss

NEW ALERT!

WGDFF

Western Goldfields Tgt RAISED To C$4.50 From C$4 At Scotia >WGI.T

UXG is really hurting here... down to 4.75! Where is this stock headed? I thought the disappointing mining results where for new possible operations. The devaluation of the companies stock price is disconcerting when the entire mining sector is headed in the opposite direction.

Considering biting the bullet and dumping the small position I've been holding for a while!

Oh I'm sorry Chris, I forgot you would take my comment as a challenge.

I have enough trouble keeping my head trading without getting testosterone involved, thanks anyway!

Anyone know why UXG continues to drop? Those test results can not be the only reason.Or can it?

Anyone else still keeping an eye on ETFC? - I traded this one a few times in the last month for some decent ST profits after hearing it mentioned here.

Looks like it is resting on support just below $13 after a sharp break down from the $14s last week. Though I do not usually use stops - it looks like it could be a good entry at $13 with a fairly tight stop ($12.7-8s).

Re: UXG
The cheaper I can get a stake in Rob McEwen, the better.

Could some user of this board please tell me how to chronologically sort the results of a search page from this site? The search results all seem to be jumbled up in no order that is apparent to me!

UXG - being an exploration company a swing in sentiment on mediocre drilling results is expected. It is a risky play - possible Nx reward vs. complete loss. In that sense it is an opposite of what WGDFF is.

Said that I've exited UXG last week but watching for the price action to get back in. If there is something underground RobM should find it. The question though is there something ;)

ETFC:
Billy - I have been doing the same with ETFC for the last few weeks. But with Citi's bad results subprime worries are re-surfacing again, and financials are under pressure.
IMO, This could last a few days taking ETFC down further. I am staying away from ETFC today.

Re. stock market vs. economic conditions.

While I generally share deep suspicions as to the supposed predictive nature of financial markets, I must confess that my poor investing results so far this year have rooted the notion that the reverse may apply (i.e. current/expected dynamics in economic conditions drive equities) out of my belief system. I now subscribe to a fuzzier weltanschauung where markets and real economy co-exist and interact not quite in or out of sync. Yet in markets traded daily, correct timing provides a majority of one's returns. So even if I am intellectually satisfied to have correctly anticipated/mapped out the economic unfolding from the peak of the bubble to today, I got on the wrong side (too early mostly) of some mighty money moves and got my shorts blown quite badly before the tide turned. At least I wasn't the greater fool who is left holding the bag and waiting for a comeback (I know people who are still awaiting CSCO to return to $50).

JML

JML

Craig, your latest comment isn't fair. It's you who challenged me, remember? I am merely inviting you to put your mouth where your money is. I could very well turn out to be wrong. I just want you on the record so that we will know if it is you who are right.

Clueless -
I dont know how to sort search results by date, but I do know how to limit by date... First go directly to www.google.com Then to search only billcara.com for something like 'ETFC' enter: "site:billcara.com ETFC" (without quotes) in the search box.
Then click on 'Advanced Search' next to the box and select "Return web pages first seen in the" time that you wish...

Another good search tip is to use double quotes around two words, for example "Economic Reform" to force the search to find that exact phrase.

Tim

Lots of action on BMK (NOT's sister), up 43% today at 0.435.

The other sibling, FWR has not made its move.

RE: ETFC. Earnings report due Wednesday, October 17, not sure what time. Estimates: 0.18/0.113/0.04. Prior year actual: 0.35.

Got knocked out of Fancamp (FNC) today for a nice gain. My only McFauld's Lake holding now is FWR. Hoping that the gate swings back so that I can reload NOT, BMK and FNC. Thanks Bill for bringing this play to our attention!

Hello everyone,

I'm looking at the shares of Royal Bank of Scotland as a buying opportunity around 500 pence (currently 526,50). The consortium of RBS, Banco Santander and Fortis will complete the take-over over Abn Amro Wednesday. The stock price of RBS is driven down at the moment because the take-over price is for 7% in shares RBS and for 93% cash. This brings down RSI 7 D/W/M, currently at 32/34/23 (at the LSE). The dividend-% is around 6%. When the Daily and the Weekly RSI also drop under 30 and the Daily RSI will rise above 30 after that then this will provide a good opportunity because i think the stock is driven down to far.

Scot

Does anyone know any Asian ADR's which is a good short candidate expecting the US losses to carryover to the asian markets tomorrow?

I bought some OCT 55 puts on IBN.

Hello Scot,
I have been looking at a few options in Uk banks, but I just dont trust banks financials etc. yet.I think more problems could surface, its too early for me. I plumped for TATE instead, RSI 7s look good at moment.

Chinese exports are up 27% since last quarter????
That can't be right, or could it?
Retail sales are down and consumer spending is decreasing.
I'd venture to guess that Walmart's warehouse is bulging at the seams.
Old Sam Walton would roll over in his grave if he knew his company would be a Chinese trinket company.

"Shop at Walmart, 100% American made products are on our shelves."

Rest In Peace Sam!

UXG - next stop $4? I'd love to buy in there - its low since listing on AMEX

Sorry Sharkie, I have learned I don't have to be right. Life isn't fair.

I'm still wondering why no one took me up on the bet of two silver eagles that gold hits 725 again before it hits 800.

Hey, I TRIED to put my (real) money where my mouth is!

Of course, after a day like today I'd probably dial that bet back to one silver eagle.

We're all going to be right one day and wrong others. As a friend said "It's impossible to talk as much as I do and not say something stupid once in a while!" The trick is to not get too emotionally involved about all this.

In an unrelated note: Whatever happened to Noodle? Did he bail on us while I was away the past couple of months? I'd like to see what he has to say about the credit market crack up. That guy had some really excellent inside views on all this.

Fred, I'm right there with you. I added to CTL.TO this morning on a test of the capitulation low on 9/21 (the volume was HUGE, which tells me the stock is in strong hands now), not to mention its trading at 50% of book value. yes, the canadian paper market is in serious trouble, but catalyst as the low cost producer should be one of the survivors. with TAM forcing the reorganization of the board, think of it as a private equity play without the fees or the lack of liquidity.

"Old Sam Walton would roll over in his grave if he knew his company would be a Chinese trinket company."

You're kidding, right? Indeed, Walmart, more than any other company, has abetted the outflow of American manufacturing jobs overseas.

Craig,

Let's put this silly matter behind us. I stuck my neck out and made a very contrarian pick, that the whole market will lift significantly above these levels, due primarily to dollar inflation and also to the way the market's defied a lot of bad news. In addition, a trend, once established, tends to continue.

I meant nothing more earlier today, after you accused my crystal ball of being crud-encrusted, than to ask for your opinion on record so that ultimately the implied besmirchment of me contained in your original post today could, hopefully, someday be erased. I respect your right to comment on my post. I would respect your opinion more if you were willing to stick your neck out as I have so that your stake in this matter and therefore your risk were equal to mine, thereby earning you the unquestionable right to disparage my opinion.

I apologize sincerely if our interaction today has made you feel attacked or unduly challenged. I didn't wake up this morning intending to do either. And I ask you now for your hand in friendship, and that we put this day and this matter behind us, if it's ok with you. There's enough bad feeling in the world as it is.

Chris

shark_attack that was a classy post. You da man.

Schnauser and bb,
I'm hesitant about investing in any Canadian export-oriented manufacturer with a U.S. customer-base because of the $Cdn/$US exchange rate. I think that Canadian companies can't raise their U.S. prices. Therefore, regardless of any other factors, their bottom line has to suffer.

Scot and john uk Hi, I was curious about any online sources of RSI D/W/ M , for British stocks.I have only found those having A.D.R.s in the U,S, Thank you. Bob.

Hi Shark: "Yet, in the midst of all this negative news, the stock market is trading just below all time highs. The fact that the stock market has been a lot stronger than it should have been tells me that it's likely to go higher."

While I'm tepid on the market, I do see that since the US has underperformed every market, that we could easily see a rotation out of emerging markets into the US. Jeffrey Saut (which Gemmastar pointed out to me prior to my reading it with my own eyeballs) has a terrific post up about the sovereign wealth potentially buying into stocks given that currency valuations are so screwy. So on the point of normal rotation and interest of foreign $'s trying to find a home, I would agree that might fuel our indices.

However, and I don't have any crystal ball, and I know that nobody else really does either!, what we would then see for my thesis to be correct is a nasty correction in overseas markets as the money rotates out. That's just a guess.

I have lots of gunpowder, so I don't mind waiting until the smoke signals, tea leaves and planets all line up correctly.

Now for any of you who follow M. ARmstrong's model (which remarkable had a top called on Feb 27), this model calls for a bottom on March 26,08. IF you want to see this model, you are welcome to visit this post from my blog. http://theperplexedinvestor.blogspot.com/2007/04/contrahourmartin-armstrong.html

Now, I'm not saying he's right or wrong--soothsayers being right a time or two does not mean that they'll be right ALL the time. But, it is something to think about.

Good luck to all. I'm not feeling any withdrawal over SEED. But I continue to watch. There were many, many short sellers out there. FIDO has no short shares still.

UXG.to -- wow, though already out of it, didn't think it'd get this low. Yes it's a Rob McEwen play and that's what got me in, but nobody's

right all the time, so at the end of the day, you have to respect price action.
Billy -- UUU.to -- still have a long-term bullish bias on uranium sector, but realistically, the kind of technical damage incurred over last

summer usually takes a long time to heal. Actually got stopped out of this one last wk (for a small loss) the day before the big plunge.

MGA.to looks healthier.
wavesmash, Fred, bb et al -- A.to -- very interesting as a long -- may enter myself in next few days pending price action that marks a

higher low. Same with CTL.to btw if it bottoms out soon.
Also just glanced at the DIA and SPY wkly today -- could be bearish if this week closes lower so am preparing to scale into index

shorts by end of the week (but premature as of today). Q's are more extended but better set up to weather pullbacks. $TSX is not

looking good today either. Since these are wkly's, potential for longer-term moves. Hmmm...

As to the overall discussion today of the mkt vs economy, Jim Sinclair (jsmineset.com) raises an interesting point that we may be in a

situation similar to the Weimar republic post WWI, in that the stk mkt rallies while the economy goes down the toilet. One has to think in

terms of sentiment, liquidity and global capital flows. I personally don't believe that the stk mkt is a predictor of the economy. Despite

today's overall mkt losses, it wouldn't be surprising to me if we eventually get parabolic moves in let's say, infrastructure tech and

large-cap multinationals. Bill's preamble above alerts us to a very important undercurrent. And indeed, the actual amount needed to

patch the credit crunch may be a lot higher than the headline number. Can you imagine the mkt panic if the amount was reported to be

$1 trillion? The Fed is now allowing some big banks to use distressed bonds as collateral in the discount window, which basically

amounts to a bailout of bad debt. These are all part of a huge reliquification attempt to stave off deflation when debt is repaid. We

therefore have to be thinking of where is the next mkt sector surge. So far we've had China and other emerging mkt's -- where will the

hot money flow next? Thanks Leisa for sharing the Jeff Saut note.
The inflationary thesis should hold well at least until US consumers max out on credit card debt -- am thinking that this could be the next

shoe to fall now that the home equity ATM is shut off. Several years ago, the banking industry (if memory serves me right) pushed

Congress to change bankruptcy laws to make it harder for people to declare Chap 11. Their greed may come back to haunt them in

that having large masses of indentured citizenry will only serve to lengthen the deflationary period. But in the meantime, now is a great

time for HB&B, hedge and pension funds knocked down by toxic bonds to make up their portfolio losses by piling into the stk mkt until

the music stops. I always look at the technicals and respect price action first, but to satisfy my human need for cause-and-effect,

currently use this "macro" framework for the long-term big picture.

RE: Novice, Oct 12, 8:01PM

"Stockcharts shows SMH under 38 for October when it has clearly been over 38 until today. Anyone know why stockcharts has made this adjustment?"

I saw your post on Friday and suspected a div or distribution adjustment, checked the data adjustment page at stockcharts and couldn't find it, but it is there today. SMH paid a distribution of 0.9615, thus the charts were back adjusted.

This is one thing I don't like about Stockcharts, I wish I could turn these adjustments on/off. Yes the charts should be adjusted for splits and spinoff's and special dist greater than 10% of the stock price, but not for every div.

Rico,

Re: UUU.to

FWIW, I found this article linked on another board. One of the corp. affairs execs confirming there was'nt an operational issue that caused the recent stock price decline. I take it all with a grain of salt.

http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page1329?oid=166105&sn=Detail

Also, one of the largest nuclear conferences is going on right now in New Orleans so possibly some heightened activity in the market.

http://nei.org/newsandevents/conferencesandmeetings/iufs

Will be interesting to see whether UUU.to can play some catch up. I think it will.

correction -- UXG.to -- is actually just around the Mar low (thought that had been broken). Together with the pick-up in vol, suggests we

may be at/near a capitulatory low for a bounce per my analysis late last wk.

Billy, I hope UUU.to works out in your trading time-frame. It has potential to hit 12 very soon, 13 a few weeks later (but take this like a

weather forecast 5 days out..). A more positive turn comes on a decisive break of 13 whenever that happens.
Interesting that the uranium conf is being held in New Orleans. Have been there several times pre-Katrina. Hope it's on the mend. If the

stars are aligned, may attend this kind of conf next year. Took an undergrad nuclear engineering course (required) during the U238

bear mkt. The job mkt for that industry must be a lot better now! Half-seriously, I have a conjecture that the ultimate top will not be until

working in a nuclear power plant doesn't invite a snicker while watching the Simpson's (if it lasts that long..).

Dear Leisa,

Was just over on the Perplexed Investor playing with the Evil Clown Generator. Highly recommended:)

Interesting point you made about emerging market money potentially fueling stocks. And it could happen that way. From a foreign perspective, U.S. stocks are already on sale. It also seems clear that inflation is rampant, as reflected in oil prices and prices in general. It also seems obvious that the fed has shifted policy from inflation fighting to accomodation.
As the fed works to ease the credit crunch (cuts rates more as the market will demand) the inflation realities will literally drive dollars into stocks here particularly, and around the world. I am also bullish real estate provided that one delays purchase until the unfortunate owners are literally begging you to buy the house/land. It should only be another year, maybe 2.
You will be pleased to know, Leisa, that I am a great believer in tea leaves and smoke signals.

Table of CARA 100 with RSI data: http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

test

ALOHA !!

Am I the only one on this blog who believes there is serious danger awaiting investors who pile into the GLD and SLV ETFs? I have posted on this subject numerous times regarding both the "confiscation" aspect as well as the bank insolvency "general assets" issue, but most of all the issue of credibility. Where is the guarantee that you actually own one ounce of physical? If the COMEX gold inventories ran low would they "borrow" from GLD in an "emergency"?

I personally could not think of a better "one-stop" shopping strategy to confiscate gold and silver by the US government. Our government went to extraordibary trouble to go to every bank and safe deposit box back in 1933 and now all they have to do is knock on the door of two custodial banks and the job is done! Naturally investors would be "renumerated" for their efforts ... in US Peso IOUs and at the official US government spot price for gold $42.00USD per ounce!

Back in 1929 and early 1930s when everyone piled into gold to protect their wealth nobody thought it would ever be confiscated by the most "Liberty loving" country on Earth, but it was. Only FDR and Hitler have that honor! Would Bush or the "Liberty loving" Dems hesitate to do the same in a "National Emergency"?

The GLD and SLV ETFs have way too many 'red flags" on numerous fronts. Think twice before buying these precious metals ETFs ...

GLD and SLV are good for trading and for holding in accounts that do not permit metal. And good for those who want to trade it but aren't suited for futures. They are leverage-free instruments, for good and bad.

I read some stats about the huge number of people who are gold 'investors' who hold not an ounce of actual metal. It seems very strange to me. These ETFs are NOT gold or silver.

As a base or core holding of metal they are an illusion. I've read the SLV prospectus several times and some of the stuff in there would curl your toes.

kaimu, I'd say even your Perth mint holdings are not free from confiscation risk, however. As I read on another once-useful metal forum (but now a cesspool of creepy racist, homophobic, conspiracy nuts - what is it about gold and the lunatic fringe?)

"If you don't hold it, you don't own it!"

Plus the inconvenience of selling actual metal keeps people safe from their itchy trigger fingers.

I sold off my WGDFF at a profit target, and gold and silver are still climbing. Bummer. But my piles of metal are still sitting there, nice and shiny. My Precioussssss....

ALOHA !!

MikeNYC ... The Perth Mint ... First the US government would have to get the government of Australia to agree to allow the US Treasury to come into OZ and take physical gold. Then the US government would have to get the government of Western Australia to agree to remove gold from their State. That would be even harder than confronting Canberra! As the US government gets to be more and more hated on a global scale there would be less and less cooperation by foreign governments to do anything to aid the USA.

Historically confiscation by a foreign government has never happened in OZ ... If it did then I'd just hand my "allocated" gold over to some friends in OZ first! HAPPY BIRTHDAY BLOODY MATES!!! I would sooner drop the whole lot off into the Indian Ocean than hand it over to the crooks that have ruined this country!

Could confiscation happen in Australia? Maybe, but the Aussies would not take too kindly to it! Being a very miner friendly country with hundreds of years of mining history it is hard to fathom a mega shift in conciousness there. In fact I would not be surprised to hear that the Australian government would be the first country to go to a gold backed currency.

When assessing "risk" of confiscation one must first start with past historical precedence. With that view the USA is the least safe place on Earth to hold gold! That makes the GLD and SLV ETFs the first to go! What a sad commentary on what our Founding Fathers fought and died for! I am sure they would have strung FDR up for his treasonous acts in 1933! It shows you just how corrupt governments can get when desperation sets in and that is why our Founding Fathers wanted government to be limited and small. We now have "unlimited" and GIGANTIC!!! The complete opposite ...

Re: Todd and Shark I went short CHB at $5, stopped out at $6. CHB now at $2. I could add dozens of similar trades. I could say early, late, stop too tight, risk management, etc., etc. Or , I could say that I had it exactly right, but wrong time frame. I could say if you had followed my advice, you'd be rich today, or I could say, sorry fellas, only lost a dollar. Point is, it's all in how its presented/slanted. I can be right and wrong on same trade, all in retrospect, of course.