Greetings to Bill and the community.

Long time lurker, first time poster here.

Thank you all for a great site. I continue to learn so much from this place on a daily basis and hope to be able to contribute when I can.

Have a great and profitable day!

Bingo.

You're absolutely right Bill. And gee, this has been a while in coming.

I have been warning people for a while that this "rally" has been false - there's just been no volume behind it, so what you've had is rising prices due to a lack of sellers, not a crush of buying interest.

That's a nasty situation because the rising prices come from shareholders sitting on their hands, not pulling out their wallets.

When the worm turns what went up can come down a whole lot faster - and yesterday, we got a taste.

Between a housing market in the toilet, horrible retail sales numbers, the dollar in the toilet and real inflation on essential purchases running at double-digit rates for the last seven years something has to - and will - give. It is simply a matter of when - not if.

What will be interesting to watch is the tenor of the recommendations when (if?) the USD begins to strengthen. Bill points out the dissonance between observable data and the action in stocks.

PPI number is higher than expected at 1.1%

http://tinyurl.com/2lmpfs

But the spin will be the low "core", ex food and energy. What a joke.

RE: GFI

UPDATE 2-Gold Fields sells Venezuela assets for $520 mln
Fri Oct 12, 2007 5:10am EDT

http://tinyurl.com/263gnv

Bill,

For years I have struggled with the plagues of viruses assaulting MS Windows. Finally, last year I decided to switch to Macintosh. Now I am able to do almost everything I could before, but without the affliction of proliferating viruses. For the rare instances in which I absolutely must use a MS Windows application I am able to run MS Windows (I prefer MS Windows 2000 Pro, which I think is the leanest, meanest OS ever produced by Microsoft.) in emulation mode and use all of my legacy Windows applications. Most of the time I prefer a solution available in the Mac OS X context, which, being Unix at the core, is truly industrial strength and field proven over many years.

Since switching I have not had a single virus inflicted episode.

Al Gore shares Nobel Peace Prize with the U.N. global warming panel.

The rest of the world is taking this issue seriously. Why don't the politicians in the United States?

I concur about Apple. Since switching to an IMAC a couple of years ago I haven't had a single virus episode. And it is a vastly better machine. PC's seem like garbage compared to this Apple.

Not that it didn't take a bit of getting used to.....

Now, let's take a look at the retail sales numbers, reported higher than expected:

http://tinyurl.com/3y6jnt

But peeking behind the numbers, we see most of the gains were in (can you guess?) sales of gasoline and food.

The prices of which we have learned in today's PPI number, were higher than expected.

Good grief.

FASKINATING IS ALL I CAN SAY!!!!

Knights Templar win heresy reprieve after 700 years
Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:10am EDT
By Philip Pullella

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) - The Knights Templar, the medieval Christian military order accused of heresy and sexual misconduct, will soon be partly rehabilitated when the Vatican publishes trial documents it had closely guarded for 700 years.

A reproduction of the minutes of trials against the Templars, "'Processus Contra Templarios -- Papal Inquiry into the Trial of the Templars'" is a massive work and much more than a book -- with a 5,900 euros ($8,333) price tag.

"This is a milestone because it is the first time that these documents are being released by the Vatican, which gives a stamp of authority to the entire project," said Professor Barbara Frale, a medievalist at the Vatican's Secret Archives.

"Nothing before this offered scholars original documents of the trials of the Templars," she told Reuters in a telephone interview ahead of the official presentation of the work on October 25.

The epic comes in a soft leather case that includes a large-format book including scholarly commentary, reproductions of original parchments in Latin, and -- to tantalize Templar buffs -- replicas of the wax seals used by 14th-century inquisitors.

Reuters was given an advance preview of the work, of which only 799 numbered copies have been made.

One parchment measuring about half a meter wide by some two meters long is so detailed that it includes reproductions of stains and imperfections seen on the originals.

Pope Benedict will be given the first set of the work, published by the Vatican Secret Archives in collaboration with Italy's Scrinium cultural foundation, which acted as curator and will have exclusive world distribution rights.

The Templars, whose full name was "Poor Fellow-Soldiers of Christ and of the Temple of Solomon", were founded in 1119 by knights sworn to protecting Christian pilgrims visiting the Holy Land after the Crusaders captured Jerusalem in 1099.

They amassed enormous wealth and helped finance wars of some European monarchs. Legends of their hidden treasures, secret rituals and power have figured over the years in films and bestsellers such as "The Da Vinci Code".

The Knights have also been portrayed as guardians of the legendary Holy Grail, the cup used by Christ at the Last Supper before his crucifixion.

The Vatican expects most copies of the work to be bought up by specialized libraries at top universities and by leading medieval scholars.

BURNED AT THE STAKE

The Templars went into decline after Muslims re-conquered the Holy Land at the end of the 13th century and were accused of heresy by King Philip IV of France, their foremost persecutor. Their alleged offences included denying Christ and secretly worshipping idols.

The most titillating part of the documents is the so-called Chinon Parchment, which contains phrases in which Pope Clement V absolves the Templars of charges of heresy, which had been the backbone of King Philip's attempts to eliminate them.

Templars were burned at the stake for heresy by King Philip's agents after they made confessions that most historians believe were given under duress.

The parchment, also known as the Chinon Chart, was "misplaced" in the Vatican archives until 2001, when Frale stumbled across it.

"The parchment was catalogued incorrectly at some point in history. At first I couldn't believe my eyes. I was incredulous," she said.

"This was the document that a lot of historians were looking for," the 37-year-old scholar said.

Philip was heavily indebted to the Templars, who had helped him finance his wars, and getting rid of them was a convenient way of cancelling his debts, some historians say.

Frale said Pope Clement was convinced that while the Templars had committed some grave sins, they were not heretics.

SPITTING ON THE CROSS

Their initiation ceremony is believed to have included spitting on the cross, but Frale said they justified this as a ritual of obedience in preparation for possible capture by Muslims. They were also said to have practiced sodomy.

"Simply put, the pope recognized that they were not heretics but guilty of many other minor crimes -- such as abuses, violence and sinful acts within the order," she said. "But that is not the same as heresy."

Despite his conviction that the Templars were not guilty of heresy, in 1312 Pope Clement ordered the Templars disbanded for what Frale called "the good of the Church" following his repeated clashes with the French king.

Frale depicted the trials against the Templars between 1307 and 1312 as a battle of political wills between Clement and Philip, and said the document means Clement's position has to be reappraised by historians.

"This will allow anyone to see what is actually in documents like these and deflate legends that are in vogue these days," she said.

Rosi Fontana, who has helped the Vatican coordinate the project, said: "The most incredible thing is that 700 years have passed and people are still fascinated by all of this."

"The precise reproduction of the parchments will allow scholars to study them, touch them, admire them as if they were dealing with the real thing," Fontana said.

"But even better, it means the originals will not deteriorate as fast as they would if they were constantly being viewed," she said.

http://tinyurl.com/yr3z4s

shark- positive open (IMO)->selling opportunity...

Do You Have the Guts for This Trade?
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
October 12, 2007

http://tinyurl.com/25kg8u

Exactly 2nd.
Who are you going to believe, the government liar stats or the retail earnings and inflation you can see, touch, and pay for?

A quick flash and then back to real numbers.

I'll be selling yesterday's reloads.

UNG- back in at 37.89...

Anyone know why UXG is being hammered lately? Is it really because of those test results a few days ago? With this big drop in the stock price is "The Streets" saying it's over for UXG?

Any input would be greatly appreciated. I'm sitting on a good amount of UXG stock.

following leisa and jogyp into DUG @ 38.81...

Isaiah64v4

Just FYI...

CBOE To List Options On 9 Stks, 2 ADRs Thursday..
UXG being one of these..

Maybe Da Boyz...are pushing it down to get in the options at a discount?

Isaiah, UXG has been weak following reported drill results that Rob McEwen characterized as tepid.

Watch KRY.

Discourse on politics - fine.
Discourse on religion - fine.
But now we have to put up with the blasphemy of actually changing to a Mac from PC? What is this world coming to!!

Hi,

Yesterday morning (europe time) I noticed that quite a large number of call options on the NDX were closed, all at once.

The total volume of open options 48 hrs ago was little over 40.000, and by european lunch time yea«sterday it was down to 8.000.

I guess that HB&B has already pulled the plug on this market, and the declines are now due.

repeating bill's admonition:

"Just remember that there are vested interests who desperately need you to stay long in their stocks as they head to the sidelines."

that's one reason i can think of for the positive open...hope you (jasper) take advantage of it ;)

Well, someone is struggling to hold the floor under Centex (CTX) this morning.

moneygenie, that HB trade requires even more intestinal fortitude this morning than when it was written. ;)

On the topic of housing: In my opinion the unwinding of the US housing situation has some way to go before the system rids itself fully of all the excesses accumulated during the multi-year upswing.

But what about the UK residential property market? The body of evidence points to a decidedly bearish situation beginning to unfold. Follow to link to get a feel for this scary monster.

http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/12/fear-starts-gripping-uk-housing-market/

Kinross Gold K.to/ KGC.a
Goldcorp G.to / GG.a

Oct.11/2007

Credit Suisse initiates coverage with Outperform rating .Kinross target $18.00 Can.;Goldcorp target $37.00 Can.

Seamus, any thoughts on SFD? Problem is I see a series of lower highs since July.

JogyP, KRY is at the top of my miner list today. Volume is also strong. So what gives?

Maybe the vote of confidence GFI expressed in the VZ government today by selling its assets in that country is having an inverse effect?

I refuse to believe any good news is forthcoming.

number2son, checkout the Yahoo message board for KRY. Talk about approval in a week or two.

LOL! A "new" KRY rumor? Now that's news! And confirmation from a chat room? Say it ain't so.

Craig, every rumor on KRY plays out for a few days. My idea is to not believe the rumor - Get in at the start and get out with a 5-10% gain.

2nd ave
Ohh yeah...listening...down to 45% equities without too much froth..you offer a friendly counter mind set to our human impulses of greed and fear. Having said that, selling means knowing when to get back in...more decisions, more chance of whipsaws...that's the problem I have with going to all cash. But, I might...means selling a few of those burdensome corpses. Next week I'll be out of town attending to family. A pc is nearby, but not the same. Searching for another mgr now. My wife and I are going to give the current one a hiatus. FWIW interviewed Harris Banks due to Don Coxe's association...which,in reality of influence and style, is almost nonexistent. In the meantime, the wife urges me to park in all cash....umphh.
If one wants a good link to sentiment data...I've heard good things about the following link, but the most in depth evaluative data is a premium service. ..http://tinyurl.com/2ufz4
Trying to get some emotional distance,myself, without going to the extreme of abandoning.

pressing my bets on DUG/QID...the nervous edge i had last summer when going long has disappeared...may be playing the short side the next several months...what a change...

sorry, make that "the nervous edge i had going SHORT last summer has disappeared..." that's how long it's been since i've shorted ;)

Is there a difference between trading prices, which involves buying and selling, and abandonment? Is selling abandoning, or is it management? It seems to me it would depend on where we are.

jasper- "selling means knowing when to get back in...more decisions, more chance of whipsaws...that's the problem I have with going to all cash."

i think you'll have several months to think about getting back in..

"In the meantime, the wife urges me to park in all cash."

i'd listen to her ahead of the "current one [on] hiatus."

if you need to be "long," why not try a small position going long one of the ultrashorts?

2nd,

I've also been pressing my bets with QID....SKF too.

Mind sharing your thoughts on entering DUG here?

Thanks.

2nd_ave,

wHERE CAN i FIND CHARTS for DUG/QID/UNG??

aMERITRDE DOES NOT HAVE IT.

tHANK YOU

In case any of you follow Jim Rogers, here is a nice article on his thoughts on the dollar and commodities in general. He won't say what ag product he likes but he mentioned sugar on TV a few weeks ago.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/071012/10384048.html?.v=3

Any comments re UXG falling price?

KAIMU pick Geologix Exp. GIX.V

onward & upward.Up 7.5 % today.My gain is now
58 %.It failed on july 23/07 at $2.14.Comments from other posters appreciated.

thank you KAIMU.

Any comments re UXG falling price?
~S

[URL=http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/9/10/12/f_XGDm_d3ec760.png&srv=img31][IMG]http://img31.picoodle.com/img/img31/9/10/12/t_XGDm_d3ec760.png[/IMG][/URL]

moneygenie- fidelity has charts for DUG/QID/UNG on their platform..you can also find them on yahoo finance...it'd be great to see all of them back at their 52-wk highs in the next 6-12 months...

sorry about the above link, trying to post
link to my XGD TA.

not sure if this works:

abort!!

simple question but i uploaded a screen shot
of a chart and have the link, how do i get
it to display the way everyone here does
in short form?

thanks!!!

I sold UXG at a loss yesterday so I could carry something that doesn't stink the place up.

If it can't go up when gold is 450 (and hits your stop loss) then put a fork in it.

dr.cosa- try logging onto leisa's blog, you'll find a "tinyurl" link on her home page...

http://theperplexedinvestor.blogspot.com/

Duh..I mean gold at 750....

Oracle Offers $6.7B for BEA Systems
Friday October 12, 10:46 am ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer

http://tinyurl.com/2fmc2s

bill-

DUG- other than the fact that leisa opened a positon yesterday, bill's recent references to XOM topping out give me the impetus to open a position:

"Will GE ever get back to $60.50? -- Maybe not in the lifetime of some of the people in this community.

I say the same thing about a high of $93.44 for XOM, and Value Line concurs. Check their report this week and see that out to 2012, they project annual returns, including dividends ($1.40 or about +1.60 pct p.a. at today’s price) of nil to +5 pct.

But let’s say that XOM, by 2012, goes to $100 and the annual dividend goes to $1.50, $1.60, $1.75, $1.85, $2.00 for the next five years. Going long at $88.67 (today’s price), that’s a 5-year gain of $8.60 in dividends plus $11.33 in price appreciation, for a total of say $20 returned on $88.67. That is just about +22.5 pct over five years, which is a pretty crummy annualized return – certainly no Warren Buffett numbers.

And if you think the price is going to exceed $100 any time soon, look again at the Value Line earnings projections for XOM. The 2008e (estimated) is just $6.50, which is less than 2007e $6.80 or 2006a (actual) of $6.50.

The market sometimes prices a stock higher on lower earnings, but that would require much lower inflation and interest rates. Don’t bet on it on a PE multiple expansion.

In a serious Bear, or with oil prices back to $50/bbl, you may see this stock back at $60. That’s when I would expect XOM to be back to the Cara Accumulation Zone. At that point I get interested."

-from bill's 9/15/07 WIR

Si02--Just checking in now as it was on the road early this a.m. to the weekend home.

Exited SFD previously for a profit in my regular account although I still maintain a very minor position in an IRA. Agree about your read on the lower highs. I‘m neutral on SFD right now. However, IMO, the situation in China is one of the major keys to monitor. If they have a relapse in bovine disease, SFD already has established a production relationship and would be in position to benefit. (Remember just as the U.S. has a strategic petroleum reserve, China has a strategic pork reserve. LOL!) Only other thing is watching the RSI if/when the stock has been very oversold.

On another front, exited my Homeland Security position today in EBS which I picked up in late August/September. It’s had a nice move and RSI had become nosebleed.

BTW, nice exit on SDA.

Re: Oracle Offers $6.7B for BEA Systems
Thank you Larry Ellison. I've been holding 500 shares of BEAS for 7 years now because I believe in the company. Now if only someone would buy my KANA shares.

Crystallex's Las Cristinas to get underway in two weeks? St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Ricardo Gutierrez of Venezuela’s National Assembly speculates that Crystallex could receive its much anticipated environmental permit as soon as two weeks, according to an interview conducted by VHeadline.com. Newly appointed Crystallex CEO Gordon Thompson said at the Denver Gold Forum that “it’s a political issue to get the permit out.” So until we get confirmation from MinAmb, it’s still speculation ... and we wait.

http://tinyurl.com/2fczke

UXG, perhaps it needed to fill the gap from 6/28...

Best,

The CoinGuy

KRY - For those who think this is one more rumor and it will drop below $3 in a day or two, sell Calls against your position to reduce yor cost (and pain).

e.g. You can get about $0.95-$1.05 for the Jan 2009 Call (ZHEAA). If like most you bought KRY in the $3-$4 range, this call could give you decent profit if the permit were to indeed come and protect the downside if this turns out to be one more waiting game and permit is still 'in the near future'!

thx for the link,

ok hopefully this works,
this is my simplified TA on the canadian
gold miners: XGD.

it looks good yet i cant help but think this run
is looking tired from a gut perspective, any thougths appreciated:

http://tinyurl.com/29g7mp

2nd,
Shorts are just insurance, I hardly ever think of them as a way to make decent money. I wrestle with cash vs shorts as a way to hedge risk. But, since the mkt is up today I decided to see if there was enough positive divergences to make a bet...which there are:
dxd/dow;qid; and dug. All double shorts that total with leverage.. 18% of exposed equity. May add more later. Thanks for the suggestion.

Tom O'Brien gold report is next on Bloomberg for those not tuned in.

Uranium one is on sale (UUU.to), at support.

I jumped the gun on UUU.to yesterday - big time. Hoping for the smoke to clear.

Bill,
You siad there is a lack of credible evidence for the growth in retail sales. Could you please elaborate? What information are you looking at specifically?

Thanks

Don Coxe today upped the equity component of his portfolio by 5% (with an emphasis on commodities) and reduced the bond weighting by 5% based on the fact that currencies are being devalued and commodities should be a strong beneficiary. Still maintaining a good hunk of cash as well in case things take a turn for the worse.

This is more of a long-term investing call than most of the trading calls discussed here.

Bill, It's time to get a MacBook Pro.

Bill,

At home I've been using a windows laptop for 5 years without a single virus/spyware issue. I owned an internet cafe for 4 years with 12 windows machines and also no issues (and you can imaging the crap that got surfed on those machines).

The solution? It's a tiny software application that essentially tracks any changes done on your computer, and rolls them back on the next reboot. You can disable it when installing your own applications and such, and you can select which drives to protect (I just keep my C drive that has windows protected, and save documents, etc on my D drive which is always unprotected).

It's been an absolute lifesaver and I highly recommend it to anyone who uses windows and has or fears problems with viruses. The best part, you can basically uninstall your virus checking software which tends to slow a machine down significantly, and never catches everything.

If this company was public, I'd own stock:

http://www.faronics.com/html/deepfreeze.asp

-The CoinGuy
-number2son
-basketguy

Thanks fellow for your opinion on UXG!

First of all, I didn't sell during the selling oppty...I am a believer in gold from here and am looking to add, not sell.

Secondly, KRY already has been getting my attention and was very "buyable" in technical terms until you stop and remember that it's Crystallex. But I think it's possible that a good rally could develop here. The catch-22 is, you don't want to be in when/if that VZ official sobers up and a reporter finds him.

Bill Sundance FYI

UUU.t
OCT/12/2007

BMO analyst Mark Steele would like to see S&P add both Inmet(IMN.T) and Uranium One Inc. (UUU.T) to the index.(S&P TSX 60)

Steele noted that Toronto-based Uranium One is very liquid and would provide a second uranium stock for the S&P/TSX 60. He said adding Uranium One "would just balance out the energy group perfectly."

"IF" this should happen it would help give UUU amuch needed boost

ALOHA !!

I have been busy here lately doing double duty here on the farm as my wife is off to San Diego so I have much less time to post here or anywhere else.

ON POG
Yes I agree with Bill's commentary today. In fact I would not be surprised to see the downturn start in earnest before the end of October. Given a credit bubble bursting I still believe the POG is in for a correction like Bill says. The POG could go to $825 or so before that correction occurs. Unlike Bill and others here I believe this next correction will be more severe. The elite PPT agents for HB&B will use the $850USD all time high as a psychological point. Just look at a gold chart back in 1980 and see the magnitude of the corrections ... down $350USD!! Going past $850USD is "uncharted" territory. The USDX "80" is broken so that is all the more reason for the PPT to rally a correction at POG $825USD range. Naturally that would also move the HUI and XAU down with the POG. Charting up leg divergence points using means averages on long term 5 and 10 year charts gives me a correction bottom of $605USD. That is possible in "chart terms", but in reality any meg-shift in geopolitics or derivatives time bombs could change that significantly. This is a classic struggle between fiat and real money. Those now in power thanks to fiat know this. They will do whatever is needed to beat gold down to buy them more time! After all they own the printing presses and the markets! Its a PAPER MONOPOLY we're all up against here ...

I last bought a sizeable gold position at $651USD. I bought allocated gold at the Perth Mint. In other words "out of the country" with my name on it!

ON GEOLOGIX
Trading My Chips ... GEOLOGIX-GIX.V/GXEXF.PK is not my pick. I first heard of Geologix from Peter Grandich back when it was below $1 and I promptly forgot about it until Aussieontop mentioned it months ago. On this blog it is Aussieontop's pick. I bought it heavily on two major dips, one dip was due to false drill interpretations and the other the 8/16 dip in the general market liquidity crunch. The company is improved now that the Silver Standard agreement has been amendeded.

ON XOM AND OIL
2nd_ave ... Demand would drop by the shrinking US Middle Class, which would effect XOM price, but US demand needs the US military/US government demand to receed as well as all the other countries now engaged in a military build up. China and Russia come to mind and I believe you will see Japan and Taiwan pick up the pace. Hard to have demand by governments drop when WW3 is on! Also do not forget the BRIC Middle Class coming online to pick up the shrinking US Middle Class addiction. I think people here in the USA forget that many foreign countries have been paying much higher gas prices than the USA for decades now. In the UK gas is equal to $7.25USD per US gallon. In Australia it is up past $5.80. Somehow even under those harsh prices traffic is thriving and so are roads. Can Americans live with gas at $6USD+? A drop in the US Dollar would give us no other choice but to "accept it or die"! It would come down to rearranging priorities in the USA to accomodate gas prices!

When I think of price increases in gas I start thinking of the US commuter and how US cities are laid out to make America more dependant on gas. Being addicted to gasoline can bring spending to its knees especially when you need imports for your fix. Most Americans are more concerned about keeping their jobs(income)than the commute or even their house payment! In that event then I would expect more moves out of distant suburbia and closer or into the major cities where most of the jobs are located. In that instance rents and real estate in big cities would go up. I would not even be surprised if the US governemnt subsidized the US commute to keep tax revenues flowing ... like a tax deduction or forcing employers/unions to act with across the board wage increases. I am sure some of the US corporations would come under that pressure from employees prior to any US government action. This mega shift in American psychology would put American lifestyles more on a par with Third World mega-cities like Mexico City or Beijing or Rio. In the Third World nobody can afford a big commute ... that is a luxury only for the rich! Will the last person out of suburbia please turn off the lights?

Then of course there is the investor demand for hard assets that only companies like XOM can offer. A crisis in "confidence" of global fiat dollar "paper" (monetary inflation)would make XOM a "go-to" investment. There is less "risk" in Exxon's bottom line than there is in Bear Sterns ... They don't call it "Black Gold" for nothing. Obviously oil is not money but it was an effective hedge against the last Great Depression. Only stocks in gold, silver and oil survived the 1929 crash. Like Bill says oil is not a currency your local grocery store accepts as payment but it is accepted as payment by the global nations especially industrializing ones and it is always welcomed during a WW3!

Besides XOM is way more than just crude oil ...

As my Father used to say ... "If Exxon goes bankrupt that means the USA already is!" When was the last time a major global oil producing company ever filed bankruptcy?

Please ... monetary inflation is the root cause for the rise in oil prices over the past decades. While demand varies from year to year prices rise in oil over the long term and for that matter prices have risen for anything and everything required to sustain life! This will come into focus as the "fiat system" accelerates its demise.

XOM and CVX are long term core holdings of mine. In fact so long term that I possess the stock certificates.

ON GLOBAL WARMING
Number2son ... I think it comes down to the US government does not want to admit they cannot afford it! Once again monetary inflation will dictate global government action in the long run. We can barely afford the "War On Terror" only because we keep raising the debt ceiling and have two sets of books. We obviously cannot afford to repair New Orleans or bridges so how can we afford "global warming"? Tax revenues are more important in order to preserve the two-party aristocracy(Rep & Dem)that has been hand picked by the elite families and HB&B over the past nine decades. In reality the USA cannot afford to be doing anything globally, expecially "policing"!

My APOLOGY to Kaimu and Assuieontop.

Very much appreciate the info both of you provide to this blog.
Thank you gentlemen.

I simply think that the unanimity at the previous fed meeting bespeaks a policy shift that almost insures further rate cuts soon equals = weaker dollar...equals= higher gold price. $800 is a logical target.

Glad to hear that agriculture is thriving in our 49th state:)

see a wide range of opinions here today, which is good- would be worried if everyone felt the same way...

Exerp: Globe & Mail
Moving away from cyclicals
14:49 EST Friday, Oct 12, 2007

UBS is reassessing a “pure cyclical exposure” by cutting basic materials and energy to “neutral” from “overweight,” making technology its largest “overweight” sector and moving telecoms to a modest “overweight” from “neutral.”
As a result, it removed miners Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) and BHP Billiton Ltd., Suncor Energy Inc. and DaimlerChrysler AG from its global “top 40 stock list,” replacing them with Sun Microsystems Inc., Mexican wireless provider America Movil S.A.B., Halliburton Co., and Novartis AG.

UNG- out (again, temporarily) @ 38.90...

volume has really picked up on the ultrashorts, especially DUG...have to wonder who's buying ;)

Numerous times in the past, when the fundamentals for gold and the PM stocks were bright, we've seen raids come out of seemingly nowhere. Serious raids. Often these sharp declines were attributed to central bank selling and/or US treasury intervention, at times most convenient to the US Fed i.e. putting lipstick on the pig of inflation.

I can't help but to fear we're overdue for another raid. Are these bankers now suddenly powerless to sell gold and prop up the dollar? Maybe sentiment and strategies have shifted to the point where that's exactly the case. Or maybe not. If popular thought is that the Fed will cut again at their next meeting, then that should spell further demise for the dollar, and add more lustre to gold, as sharkie mentions. There is a possibility, though, that that scenario has already been baked into the cake, whereas the previous 50 basis pt cut was largely a surprise (at least the magnitude of it), and we've been in rally mode ever since.

I guess looking at risk/reward right now, I see more risk than reward with the PMs. I sold Cara 100 Teck Cominco yesterday for a 26% gain, having bought the day before the spike bottom in mid-August, but maintain positions in Goldcorp, Kinross, SLW, and Voldemort *ahem* I mean KRY.

Other bad feelings--what the heck happens if the Fed *doesn't* cut at the next meeting. What if the NAZDAQ darlings--GOOG, AAPL, RIMM--come back to earth; and finally, emerging markets, at some point, are going to suffer a massive correction. So for now, I'm about 15% in PMs, 5% in crappy US dollar denominated Micron, and 80% in good ole Canadian cash.

I'm highly tempted to deploy a small portion of that cash in one of the ultrashorts. QID, however, has once already eaten *my* shorts, so I'm somewhat wary there. DUG, does look very interesting at these levels.

As a total off-topic currency observation. I cannot fathom why a new Subaru Outback currently lists for 40% more at Canadian dealers than the MSRP south of the border. An associate of a friend just imported a US Outback from NY and saved TWELVE THOUSAND dollars.

Anyway, have a fantastic weekend everyone--you all make this the best place to visit on the internet. Thanks for that.

Doug

2nd, DUG volume is actually thin today compared to the last few days
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=DUG

Just added SMN to the list of ultrashort holdings.

NORONT
Big move & good volume

NOT-V
Total: 10,772,350
Block: 2,013,700
NonBlock: 8,758,650

10DayAvg: 5,281,833
UP 0.590 (15.57%)

December Call Schedule, NYMEX Full-sized Gold Contract (GC) Call Schedule

Note the OI at 800 is nearly double any other strike. The 'house' or 'smart money' takes the other side of those bets and now has a large interest in gold NOT closing above 800 before December options expiry.

I don't doubt it's going over 800. But there will be a fight to keep it below until after this expiry.

1.20 -0.40 $120 1.50 1.50 594 9975 850
1.50 -0.50 $150 1.20 1.70 10 211 840
1.80 -0.50 $180 0.00 1.20 3 18 835
2.00 -0.70 $200 0.00 1.10 12 242 830
2.40 -0.60 $240 3.90 1.00 1160 1390 825
2.70 -0.80 $270 2.20 1.00 208 1893 820
3.10 -0.90 $310 0.00 0.00 2 4 815
3.60 -0.90 $360 4.40 3.60 52 839 810
4.20 -1.00 $420 0.00 0.00 2 73 805
5.00 -1.00 $500 6.00 5.20 1472 18524 800
5.60 -1.20 $560 0.00 0.00 1 1 795
6.50 -1.30 $650 10.00 10.50 30 671 790
7.40 -1.50 $740 0.00 6.70 23 232 785
8.60 -1.50 $860 9.00 8.00 489 2403 780
9.90 -1.70 $990 9.80 4.00 380 1028 775
11.40 -1.80 $1,140 7.00 7.50 109 3691 770
13.10 -2.00 $1,310 13.00 0.00 2 168 765
15.00 -2.10 $1,500 14.00 17.50 982 3902 760
17.10 -2.20 $1,710 0.00 0.00 7 213 755
19.60 -2.40 $1,960 21.50 18.80 542 10990 750

Sorry that didn't format so well. The last column is the strike and the second to last is the OI. The OI at 800 is 18524, and the next largest is the 750 at 10990 OI.

Mike
NYC

Mom&Pop Stuff:

Dance follow-up from 10.11.07:

Hey, for the first hour or so this morning I was a tad ‘fraid’ to get up on the dance floor, especially after warnings from some of those here in the ‘know’ saying it wasn’t the place for M&P .. but maybe they didn’t know that some of us white hairs sharpened our skills on Hunt Bro‘s silver back in yesteryear.

Well, as I was sitting there minding my own business and reading the tape, along came a dance partner sweeping me off my feet looking for some GOLD&SILVER mines, even one down in VZ, so I sold them some very overbought stuff I had laying around all the way back to ‘06’, that, by the way, had past the Buffett Standard (BS), and promptly took my seat before the music stops.

PS It ain’t over yet ;)

This link that was developed by one of the readers here is very good and helpful to watch every day for cara 100 RSI values.

http://rsi.korvus.net/

Thank you to the person that developed it.

I have been looking at the link on the bottem
http://www.javascripttoolbox.com/lib/table/index.php

Is it possible to develope a link where i could type in any stock symbol and get a data table like the one for the cara 100 stocks?

I think it could be done....i just do not have the necessary skill set to acomplish the task....has anyone done it yet and would they be willing to share it with me?

Pm'rs have gone mad. I just gotta have more.
(Withrawal in less than a day.) I'm practicing the art of the opposite as my medicine...not that anyone needs to know. Instead of going biking, I went swmimming. Everything will be the opposite....or, at least different.

My partner, Gigi, (who doesn't use lipstick much, and certainly not the deep reds that are apparently the poisons), informed me today that it has been determined that these products contain high levels of mercury. What?
How long have we known that mercury is a killer?
This is not a product manufactured in China, but, more likely France, Italy, etc.
Apparently mercury was more color enhancing and provocative than the whale oil originally used.
Good for the whales, but what about pregnant young women?
Is there a short here? Who makes this stuff?
Just one more example of corporate greed overiding any sense of responsibility.
Lip smacking (sorry) class action against what i would imagine are some of the richest and least loved "types" among juries.
Of course measure of damages is going to be tough.
Good weekend to all, I have had a simply great week and now sit comfortably in more cash than I have held in some time.
My shorts (skf, srs, szk) perfectly match in value my few PM dreamer longs.

Isaiah - re UXG - recent price action highlights the importance of keeping a stop-loss in mind. For me, it

was an outside-down day and an imminent outside-down week in late Sept - these in the face of an overall strong gold stk mkt. I sold

about half my position on that basis. (btw, these are for UXG traded in Cda) The next half was sold when the stk price kept getting

rejected by the 50-day EMA overhead. Exit prices for both blocks were around $6.30-$6.50+. By the time UXG lost the 150 day, one

could see a H&S top completed, which would still let one out at just under C$6. Anyhow, the rest is history. It's now so extended from

the key moving avg's and close to a prior low fm last Mar that there's a good chance for an oversold bounce to perhaps the $5.50 area. If you sell some now to appease the trading gods, that'll mark the low and you'll get a better price for the remainder. ...from personal experience ;-)

Kaimu - I'm with you on XOM. Short-term, if I block "XOM" from the chart header, I'd say this is a bullish setup with a target of $104. It's

not perfect, but close. Didn't expect to see this actually since this period is supposed to be seasonally weak for oil. For anyone thinking

of opening a position as a momentum play, make sure you know where the exit doors are before entering this room. No question it's

quite overbought and has poor reward/risk per Bill's criteria. So that said, I'm watching DUG too, per 2nd's note.

Dr. Cosa - XGD so far looks to be in good shape, heading higher while still not yet extended. A break below around 76 would make

me cautious. Last week I was watching for HUI price action in the 360-380 area. Well, it looks very bullish as the consolidation area is 380-400 - for now. Oct is a seasonally weak month for gold, so we shall see...

FXI update - stopped out last week, so am leaving further gains on the table. No regrets. This is not about being perfect by any means.

Am concerned about increasing complacency in the mkts (high bullish %ages, etc), so have reduced long exposure in case a pullback

offers better buying oppty across the board. Same plan to add select PM, tech and soft commods then. Note that the Thurs the week

before options expiration is often noted to be a misdirection day, so let's see if the mkts end higher next week. Also watching the C$

closely. Might make sense to transfer some back to USD and trade the US mkts more. Longer-term I expect par to hold. In reading

ricej11's link to the Jim Rogers article and looking at the charts, USD could easily bounce to 80, which would be gold-negative and a

good excuse to unwind this overbought sector.

Stockcharts shows SMH under 38 for October when it has clearly been over 38 until today. Anyone know why stockcharts has made this adjustment?

"Pm'rs have gone mad. I just gotta have more.
(Withrawal in less than a day.)"

if you have to be holding something->mining methadone would be GLD/SLV, as GDX:GLD will revert to the mean...however, cold turkey is ideal...looking at your port from a mid-August vantage point might help...

Morgan Stanley puts 2008 gold forecast at $800/oz
Fri 12 Oct 2007, 11:14 GMT

http://tinyurl.com/ynpy4r

2ndave,
Hey, what's not to like about the safety of terra firma...the tide will retreat...it's a natural law...and I'll have the pleasure of watching it. If I need a fix I can just read a blog. The retreat could be delayed but I'm the last one to need the stress of riding that bull. It's an interesting world, inside and out. p.s. another one here reminds me of the august blues.