"I don't know if there will ever be a time to get short this market but I know it is not now...

Here is how it will play out for the BEARS huge short squeeze happening probably on a Friday..Then some news will break over the weekend and the futures will be taken apart, but it will all happen before we can even react.."

Posted by: basketguy at October 10, 2007 5:35 PM

basketguy- don't disagree at all with your scenario, or with the reverse-when it collapses wonder how many investors will have had the foresight to plan an exit and be able to execute while it's happening...

jasper- Japan/HK/China up 3 digits overnight...didn't take long to kickstart a little exuberance...know you've raised your stops to lock in profits, but may want to think about selling into GDX 47-48 (of course, i've underestimated the sector so maybe g034 will weigh in)...inserting markm's comment here also: "$USD has a 77 handle this morning. Gold is breaking out of the box. If CBers are paying attention, this will not be tolerated. If they are powerless, we will find that out too."

good luck to all...

Perhaps such ratios, (gold:oil), reflect perceived values. We see historical trends to the ratio, because people weigh their purchases: "If it cost me $50 to put gas in the car, then it doesn't seem excessive to spend $500 on a gold necklace."

Bill... you said...

"Being an eccentric in the sense I don’t like to spend money unnecessarily...."

then why didn't you opt for the 16oz bottle of "RC Cola" instead of the 12oz bottle of Coke for the same price? On a lucky day I would find 2 empty Canada Dry Ginger Al bottles along the road side and exchange it for 1 "RC Cola". Back then that was like finding gold along the road.

Drive safely today and thanks for all you do for us here!

Cara 100 WMT raises estimates today and is up $1.70 in premarket. That's 8% since August 21 when the buy signal was given.

Not bad for a beaten down, maligned stock.

Morning Guys and Girls,

Is it a fact that GSS was upgraded yesterday? They're hiding that upgrade news pretty well from me, but then again, I have a proud history of looking and not finding news:)

How about that SEED? 15 bucks pre-market. When's the last time Fidelity Magellan doubled your money in three days?

Dirty little secret number 17 of this business...You can do much better for yourself AND learn a lot managing your own investments than some spoiled ivy league guy trying to find a home for 20 billion dollars and he doesn't care.

a good read:

SUPER CAPITALISM, SUPER IMPERIALISM
By Henry C K Liu

"Dollar hegemony permits the US to transform itself from a competitor in world markets to earn hard money, to a fiat-money-making monopoly with fiat dollars that only it can print at will. Every other trading nation has to exchange low-wage goods for dollars that the US alone can print freely and that can be spent only in the dollar economy without monetary penalty."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IJ12Dj01.html

David/Bill

Concerning GROW discussed here yesterday.Lo and behold,it pops up on my T/A screen this morning.Thanks David/Bill for bringing this one forward.No position..yet.

Event Date: Oct 10, 2007
Opportunity Type: Long-Term Bullish
Close Price: $22.88
Target Price Range: $36.00 - $39.00

Price Period: Daily
Volume: 2,572,264
Pattern Duration: 135 days
Inbound Trend Duration: 149 days

Speaking of Oil, it appears 75% of the analysts were wrong about oil price this week.

"Crude oil will fall this week, a Bloomberg News survey on Oct. 5 showed. Twenty-four of 32 analysts surveyed, or 75 percent, said prices will decline, the most bearish response since the survey was introduced in April 2004. "
http://tinyurl.com/2c42ve

And so it goes, the market continues to climb its wall of worry. S&P futures are up sharply on the Walmart news.

Shorting this market, while so obvious, is ultimately a mug's game.

What you see may not be what you get as far as the recent surge in US stocks goes. Irrespective of various stock market indices hitting new highs, the market internals remain weak. This refers to the lack of market breadth and low volume being causes for concern as these factors cast doubt over the sustainability of the rally.

Follow the link for more comments and graphs: http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/11/lack-of-stock-market-breadth-flashes-red-light/

Home builder Beazer released some interesting news. The restatement of net income and mortgage origination sleight of hand notwithstanding, the item they sneaked in that got my attention was the 68% cancellation rate for their most recent quarter.

That's extremely high, the effect of the tightening mortgage market this summer.

Bill, did you attend the broker luncheon given by Noront resources yesterday? Thanks

prieur: for long URLs such as the one you posted you can use http://tinyurl.com, very easy to use, and free.

For students of technical analysis, take a look at the daily chart for Hecla (HL). It has formed a classic cup-and-handle.

Hey Bill,

Not even the Spyker F1 team is going to let you on the pit crew with that kind of tire changing time! And yes, your rim's probably bent, (maybe you'll get yours fixed in the less than three flats it took for me to do mine).

What on earth are AUY holders doing with this run-up?

NOT.V- up 10% to 3.66...

NOT.V -clearing off the original position at 3.71..

jasper- i would pay attn to markm's thesis...strong moves in GDX/GLD the past two days->think ahead/think back to the violent sell-offs when CBs start selling...no doubt you are at the high water mark->protect those profits...

Houston "we have a problem"....screen gone totally green.Last time that happened...port dropped 7% the following week.Its sideline time!
Im with Markm.

Craig.

Holding my AUY position...looks like a nice inverse head shoulders pattern forming..

Target...17.00

Is anyone playing UXG here???

Thanks Basketguy,
I couldn't resist, sold partial at 13.65 and couldn't believe my luck reloading at 13.41.

uxg
hold.Technicals look terrible.Oversold ,but will wait for rsi,macd.obv turnaround to add to position.

Taking a shot at GRS at 11.63 on a theory that it's a late mover on days of PM rally.

Do you guys think the recent spike in financials (XLF) and retailers (RTH) will hold ? This is very counterintuitive move.

SEED is going crazy - sold some more in premarket today and thinking of closing the position for a while. Not that I don't like the business but doubling in price with no changes in fundamentals is a bit over the top.

Anyway used the gains from SEED to buy some RTH april puts today. I am not as excited as the market is about retailers future.

When WGDFF is getting AMEX listing ?

NXG- clearing out at 2.84...

GSS is breaking out now!!!!!!!!Buy GSS.

Can somebody explain what exactly is driving the jubilation in the tech sector? Why is Apple at 170, Google at 638, Intel at 26, nVidia at 36, and QQQQ at 54!!!

Did all the conerns over the credit squeeze evaporate and the consequences disappear?

Regarding PM & miners... great run up, I'm sad that the head fake 10 days ago got me to sell 25% of my position, since it's been onwards and upwards 5-8% since then on all the stocks I sold. However, you have to ask how far this run-up can go. XAU at an all time high, but daily RSI-7s well above 70 for every major miner that I trade!

How are you other traders playing this scenario? I'm thinking of taking another 25% off the table by end of day either today, or if the momentum holds into the close, I'll hold over until tomorrow.

Looks like it's hitting a bit of resistance Sharky. It needs to get above that pesky 4.36.

GDX- just my take, but i would take profits at 47.76...

$4.25 was the real hurdle....36 is very minor resistance. This baby's going up.....today. (if gold holds up)

shark, GSS has a daily chart almost identical to HL. Today we're getting a breakout on both. The rise in the price of gold is leading the way, no doubt.

if this isn't exuberance, don't know what is...exact opposite of august 16th...how many bought august 16th (xau touched 120 at the low), how many selling today (wouldn't want to bet on the high in xau today)...

UNG- scaling in again at 38.21...

My $$$ is with Sharkie...

With a tight stop of course...

GSS Breaking out

Anyone still holding KGC 12.50 Calls? Letting some profits run till expiration.
Also, getting out of SDA, 66.75 is just unbelievable (getting out temporarily that is).

Moving 50% into cash.

Guyana gold

Guy-t
dropping like a rock.$10.15 to $9.65

My limit order just got hit on WGDFF.

In: 7/5/2007 @ 2.67 (+14 R/T)
Out: 10/11.2007 @ 3.67

While it was successful, I don't feel good about this trade. I've been 'studying the literature' as they say, and my goal is to develop a disciplined and methodical trading approach. I didn't play this one that way. Thankfully this gold bull can cover a lot of trading sins.

One question to the pros: Van Tharp and others talk about not moving your stops. What about moving your exits?

For example, lets say you are long a gold miner and near your target. If you see the overnight gold cash price action powering up strongly, is it acceptable to push the exit up on that miners target price in anticipation of a strong open? Or is that just playing games which can only lead to ruin?

I pushed my exit up the night before the last jobs report in case the number was bad and the market priced in another rate cut. It didn't happen and I moved it back down to where it was.

This morning I saw the strong overnight gold action and left it alone. I got filled and then WGDFF jumped .05. I'm not so worried about that nickel, but I want to make sure I'm doing this 'right.'

John Carter addresses this in "Mastering the Trade" by saying "Yeah, the worst thing is if you move your exit and it works out for you. Then you'll start doing it all the time and you'll really be screwed." (That is, of course, a rough paraphrase.)

The other thing I messed up on was not taking profits at 3.55 after Bill reminded us two days in a row. I don't think it's so bad to take a tip or idea to trade, but I also think if you do that you should follow the 'guru' out if you've followed one in. I could have bought it back (though to be fair to myself - my positions are so small that I have to be careful due to transaction costs - that .15 swing last week in WGDFF would not have done much for me.)

Lastly, in this parade of self-flagellation, my target price was not based in any technical or fundamental points. It was a fairly arbitrary 'buck up' I would like to do better there next time.

BUT, I have a very, very small account and this one gave me a nice percentage boost. So I do feel pretty good. I just want to do better. A lot better. And I need to be very careful.

BTW, it's nice to be back here. The past two months I've cut back on non-work, non-critical Internet activity. I guess I missed some fireworks...

Mike
NYC

PS 3.74 now. Nice. Bill make us bank. For free. We gotta do something nice for the guy sometime.

shark_attack, number2son,

HELLO!

I hear you. But how does one follow the RSI concept here??

Focus on one's personal time frame or act on what one sees?? Any kind of hint will ease anxiety.

Thanks much

PS: I am Holding GFI also. Best of luck to all.

Sellin into some serious strength here...

the last 10% of the run is always the most fun...and Huge Gains..

Maybe my Friday short squeeze Monday selloff will happen this week? Only dreaming...

USDX 77 handle now.

NXG, KRY volumes looks impressive.

question????thinking of buying wag..walgreen

this is a good price level to buy low p/e or should i wait for more price decline????

thanks

Perhaps a nice buying opportunity on Uranium One -(UUU.to) today for those looking to play uranium. I think there were a lot of stop-losses raided this morning with the gap lower open. 11.30ish looks like a good entry.

MikeNYC, the same idea applies to protective stops as it does for taking profits. Never lower your stop.

The art of stops, of course, is giving the stock price enough breathing space while not sacrificing profits. With volatile stocks, like the miners, I have erred on the side of caution and have thus missed a good part of this run. But there's no shame in taking profits in my book.

SV, WAG has not quite reached the Accumulation zone where the Daily, Weekly and Monthly RSI-7 are all below 30. In my limited experience, trying to 'front-run' Bill's RSI-7 method can be costly... Be patient and wait for it to come to you... You can see here, the Monthly RSI is still above 30:
http://www.investertech.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=WAG&wt=3&ind=nn

WAG:
I bought WAG few days ago after MarkM suggested it. I think the downside is limted here and could go up to the mid 40s in a few months.

2ndave,
Paying attention...just got back from dentist...what a time/past three months for vicodin....

Where's the best place to see usdindex real time? Can not seem to get it at fido or stockcharts. INO has it 30 minute delayed...that's the best that I can do.

SV
WAG-Walgreen
27 research providers

Overall rating HOLD

3 Strong buy
8 buy
14 hold
2 sell
0 strong sell

Hope this helps.
No position

moneygenie, in the current market I am watching the oscillators on the intraday charts for entries. One of my first rules, however, is not to buy when the RSI on the daily is over 70.

It looks like the cup-and-handle pattern is in evidence all over the miners now. GFI, too.

As for selling, I know a lot of traders take profits on 1/2 their position after a strong run. It helps ease worrying about a trend reversing course.

JogyP, lol with regard to KRY. Paradigm lowered their price target (again) today to $3.50. Serves them right.

Anyone know how to interpret the results of UXG's test drills?

began329,
If you key UXG into the Search function on this site's home page you'll find Rob McEwen's take on the results which were posted a few days ago and Bill's reiteration of McEwen's take, which was posted yesterday.

began329 - re UXG:
I sold UXG. The results would be fine if the material was near the surface and could be mined as an open pit, but they're deep underground, and that's expensive to get out, which is why McEwan was disappointed - he was looking for 0.5+ oz/ton IMHO.

I have been watching WAG recently. I plan on waiting for the D/W/M RSI to be below 30 and then only consider buying after the D RSI rises above 30 .
Their last quarter earnings were poor with costs up and drug margins down .They said they will tackle costs but see drug profit pressure continuing. I dont want to try to catch a falling knife.

Cheers

I have been watching WAG recently. I plan on waiting for the D/W/M RSI to be below 30 and then only consider buying after the D RSI rises above 30 .
Their last quarter earnings were poor with costs up and drug margins down .They said they will tackle costs but see drug profit pressure continuing. I dont want to try to catch a falling knife.

Cheers

began329:
This link is not specific to UXG but might help with mining knowledge..

http://www.mining-journal.com/html/mining_knowledge.html

An instructive and entertaining profile of Victor Niederhoffer that sheds light on his life, mind, modus operandi, and recent travails can be found in the current New Yorker. A few choice quotes inserted here for teaser purposes could conceivably constitute a review for educational purposes and be used as “fair use,” but they’d only spoil the fun. Recommended reading for bc.com punters of all ages.

(Cassidy, John. “The Blow-Up Artist.” The New Yorker 15 Oct. 2007: 56-69)

Hi,
I erred on the side of caution a few weeks ago and sold all of my
gold stocks- ouch...I always sell too early. I sold over 10 days, but I sold all but KRY.

Congratulations to everyone who stayed in!

Sarah-Hadassah

Selling PMs into strength today. I was 100% all in and have sold off 15%, including big positions in Goldcorp (G) and Kinross (K).

proof of concept? sounds like payoff day on billcara.com ;)

my OCD is kicking in with Kinross, 5 cents till I am at exactly 50% return so I am waiting with mouse ready ;)

Congratulations to you too Sarah-Hadassah. It's a wise woman who sells into strength. But I am now a believer in gold's next upleg to $800. Love to hear Bill opine on this.

I am looking to pick up a little URZ on it's drop. I am still long GSS and am in it to win it, no stop basically, I just really believe now. Ok, the stop's at 4.19

august 16th they did their best to shake you out...today feels like they're doing best to suck you in...

Cara100 Trend Portfolio

I have been posting this every so often. We often discuss how we are doing with our picks but I suggest you run a portfolio at a website so people can see both your successes and failures and comment on them.

Decisions to buy/sell are not based on RSI. I look for the trend and buy after a trend is resumed after a dip.

http://tinyurl.com/yoe5j2 is the portfolio of up to 12 or 13 Cara 100 stocks I hold.

http://tinyurl.com/2hd44p is the transactions themselves.

Stocks held now PG +10%, CSCO +11%, INTC +4%, JNJ +7%, MFC +12%, AET +6%, CVX +3%, ABB +16%, DEO +5%, ECA +3%, SU +4%, VIP +12%, IMO - even.

You can look at when they were purchased on the website. All were purchased between today and Aug 15th, VIP was purchased on Oct 5th.

Last 3 sells: CHL +21%, PTR +25%, GRMN +17%

If this method does not work after the next bear, I will let you know. I use Average True Range to determine price targets and sell stops.

Constructive comments welcome. I have described how I determine which Cara100 stocks qualify in past posts.

UNG- out again at 39.15

2nd, You are one of the best sentiment traders I know of..... I hope all the ST'ers are listening.

This is a bit too irrational, the inverse of Augusts debacle.

I'm out except WGDFF and the TM position I'm working on.

Made a mint on GFI, GDX, AUY and BHP today.

Sarah, I thought you took partial profits, but no shame in taking profits off the table, that's your job. None of us can call tops or bottoms that closely. Count your $$$ again, it should help you feel better!

I'm waiting for the tide to go out. It will, it will, it always does.

Yen and Swiss franc are giving signs the Carry Trade is on big time. Looking at the currency levels of kiwi, ISK, rand, and even $A, you can see the move is there.

BOJ has already announced rates will be unchanged which gives a green light to Carry Trade transactions.

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm

My “tell” NZD to JPY went back above 90 today and closed just above 91.

Taking off JPY hedge established in June/July with 5% profit.

It beat a money market rate and it was a form of insurance. There may be another time, but right now the CBs are looking at things differently.

Chris,

What I'd like to know about from Bill is what he discussed before about the role of cost of gold production vs central bankers sell inclination. I can not say that I understood the first time around. Generally had a bullish ring...had me wondering that central banks may allow pog to rise higher than usual in order to support demand and cost of production.

Fred,
Wow...you had your entire port in PMs or just fully allocated to equities? Alway curious as to how more experienced others are making their allocation decisions.

Shark,
800 for sure. Straight to 800? No way.

I bet one SAE we all get a nice chance to buy back everything we are selling into strength today. $725 before $800?

Now that I said it, I'm sure gold will make me look stupid by rocketing straight to 825 or something. I wonder when we'll get $100 movement days in gold? It's coming...

holdenll, thanks. I've been looking for a place to run a imaginary portfolio, but none of the sites I've seen allow the Canadian exchanges. That site you linked allows Toronto. It doesn't seem to allow pinks/bb, though.

What's up with GSX today? They had a PR that sounded mixed a couple of days ago, but it's taken off since then. Anyone follow this one?

Mike
NYC

I think today is just too good of a day not to sell a significant portion of my miners...

letting go of 50% of my SLW, my remaining 50% of PAAS, my remaining 50% of KGC...

holding GG, UXG, WGI, GLD, SLV, and XGD

AM I THE LAST ONE HOLDING THE BAG?

I AM STILL IN MY GOLD STOCKS

I am holding my miners on tight stops. The action in the gold price has been excellent today. If it can get above $755 in the next few days it will start to run towards $800. The commercials are extremely short and will be forced to cover driving the price higher.

I had sold GSS two weeks ago at $4.10 but got back in earlier this week at $3.96 when the action looked constructive.

It feels to me traders don't believe the gold price will continue to rise unlike in May 2006 when euphoria dominated. The juniors are not being bought.

basketguy

I'm still holding GFI and WGDFF. GFI cranking up on news "Gold Fields Sells 60% Stake in Essakane Project for US$200 Million".

this a $47 million development effort that will be purchased by their partner Essakane for 200 million. So, I share the same quandary. Sell or ride? Bill's been talking about selling into strength, and reloading. What to do... hmmm

Looking at most of the charts...Miners have just broke out.

Yes we have had a nice run from 8/16..As other stocks have, but miners, gold etfs, index all breaking out today..That's why I continue to hold.

AS BILL SAYS GOLD IS THE LAST TO DANCE. I think this has more legs...Looking for 850.00 in gold...

Jasper,
I had 75% in PMs, 10% in oil and 15% in miscellaneous. This is not my norm. Typically I stay globally diversified in Cara 100 type stocks and have no more than 10% in PMs. I'm unwinding my PM positions. I've sold most of my holdings in the black. I'm currently still in VAL, CNU, EVR, KRY, LEX, GZZ, GAM and WHY. All are underwater and all are at prices which I believe have lots of upside potential for different reasons. Observe my position for your amusement. Please don't look at it as educational. I won't be in this position again ..... until next time LOL.

LOL! You could try my method.....
sold half positions, reloaded some, sold again after another run up, dip, buy smaller positions, run up again, sell all positions except WGDFF. Watch it run even higher and then back to where we are now. Now it's time to be patient.

Does anyone believe this market will go into the weekend without taking profits?

I see no reason to be selling my miners here, either. I'd love to see Ivanhoe pullback as it is overbought right now. Same for SLW and KGC. But others are still very attractive. all imho.

moab---good points about the commercials & traders' sentiment. In addition, the public is receiving hype and appears to be coming in. The hedgies have easy borrowing out of Japan and could add if they haven't already judging by today's action. Problem is when all head to the exits after the "last dance" it's like an elevator going down.

Basketguy Reference exit clues see Bill Cara Week in Review #38, Sept. 23, 2007

"Onwards and upwards until it doesn’t. For clues to that watch to see if the Euro declines and the USD lifts. Watch to see a sell-off in the $XAU goldminers share index. It’s coming – I just don’t know when.

Months ago, I opined it would top out at about 750 for this cycle, and then start to rally again to over $1000 in the next cycle, after central banks start talking about a new General Agreement on Currencies, and China agrees to release the tight link to the USD.

In the meantime, prices will be volatile. Further FOMC decisions to cut rates will boost gold."

GDX:GLD ratio at 6-month high.
http://tinyurl.com/3bdzw4
GFI - 15-minute MACD(12,26,9) and STO(14,3) suggest pullback imminent.

Here's the other side....sold that dead body UXG for a healthy loss. That's how it works sometimes. At least it's off my back and I free'ed up the capital to put to better use.

Jesse would approve.

Sorry - Tinyurl link no good. Try this:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=gdx:gld

Moab..Fred,
Sentiment in the general mkt is becoming significantly less bullish...for which I use $cpc
(21 Day P/C has unwound rapidly as you'd expect having seen the SP 500 move from 1370 to 1570 in a matter of about 8 weeks)...and I'd like to get a better handle on pm sentiment...is it unwinding too?...where would I go to see a chart on this?
Thanks guys..I too have been thinking that the juniors are not yet really in this move...then again, I know what greed can do.

MGH (Minco) just went vertical on a huge jump in volume.

Don't see any news.

Something going on in those Chinese gold mines we don't know about yet??

Mike
NYC

Not to go tulip..but while googling for a sentiment chart, this link shows an interesting chart for pog that is inflation protected..if accurate interesting, reminds me of a similar chart pattern by kaimu sometime ago.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=507

For those interested in sentiment...

http://tinyurl.com/22sgwy

Seamus

thanks for bringing me back to reality...I just sold some of my gold and will wait to reload...

Market looks to be taking profits here...

First of all I'm not selling gold into strength here, it's a dumb move, gold's going higher.

Secondly, Mike, GSX is a miserable little stock that I watch but cannot trade from the long side because it is in a perpetual downtrend. It had one good day yesterday, but looks to be coming down now. You'd need to see a re-test of yesterdays low (no problem for this stock) and then an upmove or even better, a higher low.

Go to the GSX website and behold the color photographs of the lonely pump or whatever that thing is, out in the middle of total desolation, sitting in a puddle of brackish water.

Kitco.com trend. Not close to Spring 2006 yet.

http://tinyurl.com/2dnsb4

Seamus

Thanks for bringing me back to earth..

Take profits serious profits while you have them and reload...

Sold some of my gold...

what just happend?

wtf happened... huge sell-off in the PM miners and ther est of the markets.

WOW... someone is making money!!! What was that? SLW hit 14.71, now above 15 again, in like 2 min!!! Nasdaq was -24, now -10

JogyP

The Bear that 2nd Ave and I shot yesterday..

He crawled back out of the woods and we could not reload fast enough...

We are now running for our lives...

basketguy- think markm has the right idea-last dance is hard to play...when the music ends->mad rush for the exits...not calling any tops, but as of right now, with the exception of UNG, have closed everything out (including BMD), and sitting in cash...

2nd may have pegged it right after all...on the run

jasper- if you're not already out, would think hard about it...check with the wife ;)...

SEED- the poster child for the end game->today's chart is as good as any for illustrating what happens when the music winds down...

The huge reversal today out of nowhere is ominous.

I wish I could reproduce a post from Jeff Cooper an minyanville but I will give you the gist of it: periods of 60 are very important in the stock market. It has been 60 months since the 2002 low (5th anniversary today). Anniversaries of lows and highs are also important turning points. It has also 55 days since the low in August, with 49 to 55 days typically being a turning point in blowoff moves like '87 and '29.

All this is from the work of WD Gann.

Not trying to scare anyone, just trying to put some perspective on the situation and the potential move. Cooper also says any move below S&P 1540 is suspect. It was something to read this earlier and then see the reversal when I came back from lunch.

2nd-ave, I agree with you and MarkM. One must not forget what happens as a result of inflation/skyrocketing commodities.... someone is going to be a vigilante. Whether that's the fed or the bond guys, I have no idea.

black boxes went into unstable oscillation mode ;)

Shark, GSX is a recent add to my my "small hydrocarbon" watch list. I'm sure not jumping into anything like that with two up days after a year of doing nothing. But it had popped to the top today with a 25% (now pulled back) gain and I was wondering what's up.

I'm very interested in cheaper, small oil and gas stocks. If anyone has quality suggestions for my watch list that would be great.

I'm with you on gold going higher. But I also need to trade the pullbacks a bit aggressively. After watching the POG day and night for the past couple of years (literally - I get up in the middle of the night because nature calls, I refresh my Kitco screen and see what's happened in the past few hours. It's up all day at work, too) it seems likely we will get another smackdown not too far from here. That's the way it seems to act.

Do you really think it's stupid to take profits after a nice runup like this?

I'm upping my '725 before 800' bet to two SAEs ;-) Any takers?

Pointed this out yesterday and Bill responded. AUY above average up volume indicative of institutional buying. Retaining l/t core position in this one for the time being. Watching XAU bounce back.

Sold GFI as profit hit 5 digits.

Watching SLW bouncing around, guessing a lot of stops hit.

N2S bowing vigorously to 2nd ... "I am not worthy!" ;)

pressing the contrarian button and adding a little QID...

Sold my GSS. If the tape is this fragile I ain't taking chances.

n2s- no, man...you're the one who ran the marathon to the finish line...just don't want to see you lose your trophy...

jasper- even EZA is at a high...your port must be cresting today...if the bear scenario plays out, nothing wrong with disembarking to watch the tide recede from shore...

GDX sold 47.55....next time when I'm playing the game of sell-not sell, going to use intraday data and an oscillator for negative divergence...2nd are you partial to a certain indicator and period at fido?
Chande mom osc looks interesting.
Also sold other positions...went from 20% cash to 50% cash.Went from from being up 1.7% for entire port(cash included) to .02% up. That was quick.

The close will tell the tale. If its weak it will turn in a large range reversal just like the July peak.

" nothing wrong with disembarking to watch the tide recede from shore... "

great image!...I have two favorites, now:

lugging the corpse: the fear button
watching the receding tide: the declare victory button

Reluctant to sell EZA...but it bounced off resistance too vigorously...what a waste of excitement today.

2nd,
BOS title up for grabs today? Not for me...a half of a hand does not qualify. Like Moab says, "the close"...not to mention the friday close.

Sold my winners just now: NAK and ARU.TO and a loser. I'm not willing to sit tight in a violent tape.

Apparently the selling was triggered by an ECB official saying they will have to get aggressive on rate hikes to tame inflation. This could also be the excuse.

ok just noticed on a 2 year chart of the
canadian gold miners XGD,

draw a striaght line from the may/06 peak to the
late 06 and early 07 peaks, and todays price
touches that upper boundry line.

not sure if this is significant, but erie still.

RSI-7 for the XGD is back in the hot spot , yet is not as high as the late september peak. negative divergence or a stop along the way to $800 POG

as always,
opinion are welcome,

If the ECB gets "agressive" on rates, this is bad for the USD and good for gold. My understanding is the ECB ministers are focusing on the renminbi and yen relationship to the Euro.

MikeNYC,
My watchlist of Canadian smaller oil and gas companies includes Oilexco (OIL), Duvernay (DDV), Delphi (DEE), Cyries (CYS) and Proex (PXE). I've done enough DD to be interested in them but, I have no position in any of them yet. I expect to have a basket of four of them by mid-November if market conditions and stock prices make sense.

Anyone see the ground yet? LOL!

Mom&Pop Stuff:

Do you feel the tree shaking?

It seems to me if the other bunch out there who hasn’t been into Precious Metals and especially GOLD, is finally catching on to what we’ve been learning from Bill the past couple of years, I would think the way things are ‘rollin’ towards the blue sky this week, those others might not want to go through the weekend without some … soooo maybe tomorrow will present more strength to sell into and another good two step on the dance floor ;)

Include Galleon (GO.A) to the oil and gas list.

Da bears showed up at two, seems like a familiar time for these guys to feed. The moms and pops that didn't get theirs today may back off from entering the park anytime soon. It's violent and it's just me and my screen...and my wife sitting on my shoulder.(ie. no tv color)

Gold futures and the euro both fell with the DOW or maybe to my untrained eye, the euro drop led. I would have to guess that this was engineered by currency moves. The yen fell in the same time frame and is still going down. I am not sure if the currency was cause and effect, but sure looked causal to me

Gee, if the ECB raises rates, then US dollar weakens, if US dollar weakens then Gold rises. The gold trend is still up.

BRC When the yen moves from 117.5 to 117, that's UP vs. the USD. It's on a different quote standard than the Euro currency.

BRC When the yen strengthened, the euro weakened vs. the dollar and gold backed off.

Mike NYC

oil % gas Watch list

UTS-T

Major oil sands leases in Alberta.Partnered with Petro Canada /Tech Cominco in Fort Hills oilsands project.Up % 3 today.Target prices ranging from 7.5 - 9.(can).Down lately due to increased royalty noise from Alberta Gov.Technicals say its ready to move..IMHO.just added to my position @ 5.58

Fred

I hold galleon go.a

Cyries Energy
CYS-t
Another one that hold/trade up 5 % today.

Since MNG was bought out, I have been paying more attention to PLM, hoping that they get bought up. They are a US development stage precious and base metal Co. starting up in 2009. They look OK to me, but would appreciate anyone knowing of issues to investigate letting me know before picking up some for a long term holding. TIA

http://www.polymetmining.com/s/Home.asp

OR their most recent interview is still at...

http://www.wallst.net/audio/audio.asp?ticker=PLM&id=3992

Wow...I didn't sell the GSS, even though it blew right through my stop. I just went to bed and meditated on it, and even bought URZ at the close for 3.78 again.

Thanks Seamus, I have to be more careful and should have taken a minute to think flipping from Euro dollar chart to the USD/yen.

If the ECB raises rates how can this be good for gold, unless you are in the US? From a pure exchange rate perspective, gold will not go up for the rest of the world because the USD will go down. It's a zero-sum game. With interest rates raised, gold should go down in the rest of the world, and for the US it may just seem like it went up.

It's the same as with the DJIA nominally going up - it's all relative (or "make believe"). In real terms the DJIA has not gone up, it has gone down this year. If you are insulated inside the US and only look at US market, then gold will go look like it goes higher for you, but so will oil and everything else you buy.

However, I am not convinced rates are going higher at all.

jasper- glad to see you raised some cash..

SiO2,
So many moving parts, no wonder mainstreet stays away from this yellow diablo. That said, if inflation is seen as a "persistent" threat with rates "relatively" low, no matter a rate hike, then the trend in gold remains higher not to mention the demand side of the equation from the bric countries. No matter, a lot of ifs, a lot of volatility. I await for the community elder(s) to speak.

Bill Cara asked that I post a message on his behalf to say that due to problems on the PC he uses for working on billcara.com he will only have limited access here for a couple of days.

Hang in there Bill...

We'll hold the fort.....

I am all in cash right now. I sold all my XAU right before that drop today. After seeing that drop, I'm hesitant to leave cash...

What a turnaroud for the markets today!
I exited GSS (3.31),GRS (11.18), GRZ(4.85) and NXG(2.84) and some KRY at 3.10 and a number of other stocks. I was in such a hurry that on 2 occasions my sell orders where placed as BUY orders. (IB defaults the Order ticket to a BUY)

Following 2nd_ave I also bought QID.
30% Cash and 20% in DUG,SDS, QID.

MOAB,

This report was posted on the Gann Global Financial website:

Oct 9 , 2007
STOCKS and DEC. S & P e-MINI

"OVERALL (10/5) We are not seeing that many potential days for strength over the next week so we expect topping action will be the agenda for the week of Oct. 8 and we will focus on Oct. 10 as having the best chance for a secondary high. It is rare that I see a “v” top so we will be patient and see what develops. In any case, the end is very near and we are inclined to start positioning for a sharp break even though t it may not start in a meaningful way until the Oct. 22-31 time window."

http://gannglobal.com/fortucast/

SiO2, yes from a US citizen perspective Gold rises if the ECB raises rates. I think you would agree that the US$ and Gold have an inverse relationship. If ECB raises and US stays the same or lowers rates, this is a fundamental positive for gold. Currently, gold has been rising in multiple currencies which add credibility to the move, pullbacks/corrections notwithstanding.

Ultimately what we are all doing is seeking investments/trades which will grow in value to retain/improve our standard of living in the face of rising food/energy costs you so aptly mention.

Corrections in gold are just opportunities to buy. As always the problem is timing. I even sold 1/3 of my core today, but will look to re-establish quickly. I tried to buy it back today at 7% lower but missed by a penny.

In sum, you make excellent points.

Going to play tennis in the wonderful Hawaiian sunshine.

I raised cash today, myself. I sold EGO, WGDFF with only about 1/3 of former positions. I bought DUG today as well. I did by some WZEN, but I may be sorry about that! SEED is plowed under. I sold the last of it this a.m. The best gain I've ever had. WOW! There was lots of short selling into that Pirrhana feeding frenzy yesterday. I have some FAST NOV puts. I bought them when FAST was trading around 46, so I was underwater until today. I bought some Oct 45's just before the close yesterday with good result.

There appears to be too many crosscurrents for my liking. But I'm a handwringer, so perhaps I'm a good contrarian indicator. I don't mind being on the sidelines.

ALERT!

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said today he backs a strong dollar!

http://tinyurl.com/26gokd

hilarious...

Telestar, thank you. I agree, it is indeed quite complex. I would like to point out, however, that the value of gold has not gone up in all currencies. From the beginning of 2007, these are the GLD appreciations for investors using USD, Euros, CAD, and Real:

GLD in USD: +18.7%
GLD in Euros: +11.3%
GLD in CAD: 0.0%
GLD in Real: 0.0%

I can attest to this because for 6 months I held the GLD ETF in my account and I could not figure out why it never went up! I got rid of it and started using leverage (Call options).

About the DJIA, while in USD it has nominally gone up by about 12%, in Canada the same DJIA has dropped over 5%!:

Nominal DJIA: 12.7%
For investors in Europe: +5.4%
For investors in Canada: -5.3%
For investors in Brazil: -5.4%
Using gold as currency: - 5.3%

You can view graphs of both the above relationships at http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/
It is quite an eye opener.

Re-posting OG's comment in case anyone missed it:

GDX:GLD ratio at 6-month high.
http://tinyurl.com/3bdzw4
GFI - 15-minute MACD(12,26,9) and STO(14,3) suggest pullback imminent.

Posted by: OldGoat [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 11, 2007 1:34 PM

even if gold goes higher, does not necessarily mean miners go along with it....here's a nostalgic look at markm's reference to the ratio on august 16th:

"That ratio [GLD:XAU] has spiked up to historic levels.

http://tinyurl.com/2zyhc4"

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 16, 2007 10:13 AM

GLD:XAU, of course, is the inverse of the GLD:GDX [and no need to debate XAU vs GDX to get the point across], so you'll need to turn it upside down...

Dear Bill,

Today was one of those weird situations. It's as though the PPT took the afternoon off. Seriously, if someone panicked out of GSS at 4 dollars and 2 cents this afternoon, I can't be held accountable for that kind of stupidity. Anyway, that's how smart Traders make money...Buying stock from people like them.

Gold's going up and everybody knows it now, and that's why I didn't panic out. Also, I wanted to buy more at 4.12 but didn't, of course. But I felt that strongly. There's an art to knowing when to really run for the hills and to know when to stand your ground. I am more Kincaid that Monet, but I do feel strongly now we'll see another rate cut, and $800 gold, just in time for a surprisingly robust Christmas season.

I would love to hear more about the melt-up, what it is exactly and if we're maybe seeing the beggings of it.

Thank you for all that you do, and I realize you may not get to my question for a few days, if at all. Good luck with the computer.

Mike Panzer has a nice chart up showing the tight correlations of some markets as I noted yesterday. Looking to add to some asia-pacific and china names to my long term portfolio but will only do so on a decent pull back (who isn't right?). Divergance will happen sooner or later in one of these markets.

http://tinyurl.com/2lndou

shark- no one has a crystal ball...bill's call was for gold 750, followed by a sharp correction, then a run to 4 digits by 2010...we now have gold (+/-)750->may get 800 in the current run, but what if we don't...the risk is quite high at this point, and i don't see the point in pressing the bet...more to the point, OG's post re GDX:GLD tells me the risk is magnified if you're holding only miners...XAU has had a phenomenal run from 120 to 180 (50%) in less than 2 months, and today's buying felt like the kind to sell into, so although i'm not short the sector, my bet is on much lower prices in a month...

buy on weakness, sell into strength...if you read my posts on august 16th->same message but i was suggesting that you buy into the decline...now it's october 11th (12th for you) and i'm suggesting that you sell into the froth...

i could be way off and staring at a parabolic move in the next few days...but for the risk it entails i would keep positions small...just don't want to see you give up profits...there will be plenty of time to load up for the run into 2010...good luck...

"GLD:XAU, of course, is the inverse of the GLD:GDX"- meant to say "inverse of the GDX:GLD.."

This is tonight's news....How's it going to play?

North American Palladium Ltd. (the "Company")(TSX: PDL)(AMEX: PAL) announced today that it has acquired a 100% interest in the prospective portion of the Shawmere Anorthosite Complex, located approximately 110 kilometers southwest of Timmins, Ontario. The Company intends to conduct a grassroots exploration program in the spring of 2008 to assess the area's potential for PGM-nickel-copper mineralization similar to that found at its Lac des Iles mine."

Chart looks encouraging.

2nd.....you I know I listen very intently to what you say and I respect your ruminations greatly. Didn't today's move in gold the metal feel like a market that wants to go up?

2nd.....you I know I listen very intently to what you say and I respect your ruminations greatly. Didn't today's move in gold the metal feel like a market that wants to go up?

and on august 16, it felt like it wanted to go down...of course, todd harrison likes to say bottoms are points and tops are processes, so i think there's time to cash out your longs...i just think it's time to be selling, not looking for entry points...

if you have to be holding something, why not GLD...one scenario bill pointed out->rising costs of mining->some miners shutting down->jump in POG secondary to lower supply...would have to hurt to see the POG go up while the miner you're holding decides to shut down...

test

Sorry for the test, quite the registration process. The "post a comment" section has always indicated I was signed on when I was not.

SiO2 and the rest, I bought GLD at 60 some time ago and was shocked to see a whopping 1.19% gain. Is there a Can$ based gold etf I should switch to?
Been lurking for a year now, this is the best.

Toppy?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07351664788

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p0392315216

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Look at the past three times the DX fell as far below the 50 EMA as it is now. A push back up to the 50 EMA on the DX would work against the POG, no?

Ah, what do I know? Gold will make all of us look stupid sooner or later. My core position is in my sock drawer. If gold is 800 in the morning the volatility will be even more tradeable.

Yes, there is a Canadian gold ETF -- IGT, which is GLD trading on TSX.

Since the first of the year the GLD is as you say, up about 1.5% while the IGT is up a whopping -1.5%. Whoa! That's a loss, not a profit. Not a good option either! Plus it has very low volume.

Using futures and options is probably the only way to profit from "rising" gold prices if the Cdn dollar also keeps rising.

Another canadian gold eft-like option that's been mentioned here in the past is Central Fund of Canada which is a 50/50 gold/silver closed fund i think:
http://www.centralfund.com/

quote (but no history):
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CEF-A.TO

Investertech chart:
http://tinyurl.com/ys3ttn

Looks to have performed even worse. I had some GLD as well and unloaded some today for about breakeven. What a shame...

And so it is:

Stocks Fall Back on Inflation Worries
By MADLEN READ,AP
Posted: 2007-10-11 18:25:31

NEW YORK (AP) - Stocks retreated from lofty heights Thursday after a European Central Bank official pointed to rising price risks and a major Wall Street bank lowered its sales expectations for Chinese Internet company Baidu.com.

The news caused traders to take profits, particularly in the technology sector, from big gains made earlier in the session. The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell from record levels that had been reached after Wal-Mart Stores Inc. lifted its profit forecast.

http://tinyurl.com/2o64zr