UNG- up >3% and clearing the table temporarily at 39.30...

jasper- hope you're enjoying the significant move in miners this morning...when it starts turning into a frenzy->words of wisdom from todd harrison:

http://tinyurl.com/2xfua8

"A wise trader once offered that bottoms are points and tops are processes. I'm not brave enough to call a top but I am aware enough to absorb of the anecdotal evidence that surrounds us. In two short months, volatility has fallen 60%, put protection has been purged and bullish sentiment in both the AAII and Investor's Intelligence are at the highest level in nearly a year."

"The fatal flaw of fundamental analysis is that news is always best at the top and worst at the bottom. After the rally we've seen, buying the rumor and selling the news is a viable, and entirely unexpected, outcome."

"History tells us that fervor and frenzy are most acute when risk is highest. That's not to say these names and others (China and the emerging markets) can't trade higher--the last phase of denial, migration, & panic is always the most vicious--but we've seen this movie before. It is comical in some ways and sad in others that we collectively fall prey to the same sultry sirens."

Some info about commodities. At my company in Italy we buy a lot of aluminium sheets (for bodyworks). After big price increases in the last 2 years, the price of aluminium in Euro is falling a bit now (maybe a little more than a bit), and many producers/dealers in the last 2 weeks have been calling a lot to sell "special priced stocks" and expect some weaker prices in the next 2 months. The reason? It's not clear, but maybe both weak demand, and a little bigger offer from the producers. For steels on the contrary prices are still slightly up, but availability is not a big concern like half a year ago and before.
I just thought that maybe some news from the "field" can be nice sometimes.

Leisa

SEED on fire this a.m. after being named to Forbes Asia "Best under a Billion" list.

To follow up on 2nds quote above concerning fervor and frenzy, here's a great quote and the link is to a sculpture that goes with it...

'Insanity in individuals is something rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule.' — Nietzsche

http://www.pantherhouse.com/newshelton/insanity/

re: SEED
Just sold a third of my position into the strength for a good profit. Thanks Leisa and others for the hint.

Thanks Lelik. It is interesting to hear what is happenning in the real marketplace with regards to these metals.

GUY_T

GUYANA Gold.Mentioned by Bill here previously.

HALTED !

not sure if im permitted to mention this so i totally understnad if my message gets deleted,

Gartman mentioned Molybdenum in today's letter,
and i notice some good volume in MLY,
after months of watching it flounder,
i was ready to pull the plug on this a few days a go, but now i may rethink it.

does anyone have thoughts on Moly and if it acts more as a base metal or as a precious metal as i know very little of the stuff, and naviely got into MLY during the initial offering a few months back.

thx!!!

Moly is an alloying metal to enhance the hardness and durability of steel. I would think it would trade with the base metals as that's it's use.

thx Craig,

ive been weary of base metals for some time,
and felt that the PM's would hold up better during a recession/depression.

i hate to be in something only because some
analyst with a degree of influence has suggested it, but looking at the chart its tough to walk
away now if we are in the midst of another upswing.

thx

I had a rude awakening this AM.

GMO blasted up to about $8.30 near it's old highs and I deemed it to be time to ring the 'ol register.

Scottrade wouldn't let me sell it because theyre doing a name-change and somehow that's a problem. So I got on the phone with the guy and it was fine, they would sell it for me at the net rate but the bid was dropping. Fast. Upshot is, due to not feeling that it's acceptable to be trapped in a stock, I sold at &.95 up 93 cents over my price. Still, it sucked not being able to hit that 830 bid.

URZ is still doing nicely. I bought PAL at the close yesterday and it looks ok too.

Anyone doing anything interesting today?

ok basic TA question, hopefully i can get some thoughts if im on the right track:

from a TA persepctive, using a chart of the
XGD for the canadians, we are close to re-testing
the mid-september highs but on lighter volume,
lower RSI-7 and MACD has already crossed over to
the downside.

but the recent price action have cracked above the downward trend line from the last few peaks.

despite this grim technical picture, does one tend to favour the general bullish picture of gold
over the TA that says its basing time?

any thoughts much appreciated.

thx

SEED: Is a good example of how lay investors (dumb money like me) can do good research on their own and get in ahead of others (smart money). I sold my position in my taxable account, and I'm holding longer term in my retirement. It's worth noting that there was a huge volume spike a couple of days ago. I also purchased more when it went into Filene's basement after earnings (dreadful earnings).

DR, Cosa

TA info on XGD-T(Recognita pattern tracking software)

iShares CDN S&P TSX Global Gold Index Fund (XGD : TORONTO)
Industry: Holding and Other Investment Offices

Event Details for: Flag (Bullish)
A Flag (Bullish) is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue. After a steep rise in price, the pennant reflects a temporary pause in the uptrend, consisting of two parallel trendlines that form a rectangular flag shape.
Event Date: Oct 09, 2007
Opportunity Type: Short-Term Bullish
Close Price: $76.01
Target Price Range: $92.00 - $96.00

Price Period: Daily
Volume: 319,870
Pattern Duration: 12 days
Inbound Trend Duration: 27 days


Disc. :Long term long

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$hui&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p00000704543

Are we seeing the much anticipated breakout?

That and to muzzle Alan Greenspan. I notice he was out jawboning again. The day after the fed minutes too. Imagine that.

Free enterprise, eh?

URZ has a nice cup-and-handle formation on the daily.

But very few stocks in my universe are not overbought. And ALL the indexes have extended bearish divergences. However, when I open a protective position in one of the ultra shorts, they whipsaw.

My strategy has been to keep plugging away here, keeping my stops tight.

2ndave...Keep the wisdom coming. .Gdm hit an old high resistance area...one point below 1266. My PM boat never got reloaded to the orginal level and it's anchored in the index gdx...so not a lot of froth but profit is profit that needs to be protected.
I did try over the past week to acquire mini positions in some of the tsx mining stocks. Even with good liquidity on the real time screen at tsx.com I could not get a bid on a limit order at last price. When the ask price dropped and still no confirmation I canceled my order and called Fido. Bottom line is that one has to be on the phone with the intl desk while making an online trade. They warned about problems of inefficiency .Disappointing. Bought Walmart and GOL this morning. Market is overbought. MACD needs to unwind. Still holding about 20% cash. Congrats on your natural gas trade.

Bill
Newmont buys Miramar which is in Nunavut you mention SRU as a good spec once, this is also in Nunvut and last week Schuilch announced he has an position of 30million shares of SRU..another good indicator.

Boeing Reschedules Initial 787 Deliveries and First Flight

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071010/aqw125.html?.v=19

Shorted BA at 100.5

IVN-T
IVN-N

Ivanhoe Mining on the move again today with good volume.

Total: 1,053,900
Block: 160,000
NonBlock: 893,900
10DayAvg: 820,410

UP 0.900 ( 6.25%)

Long IVN

Agreed on the HUI, Hoosier.

I also like PKD here. Does anyone else have an opinion on the difference between the integrated oils versus the servicers?

ENDEAVOUR SILVER COR (AMEX:EXK)

Looking like a good...

Alcoa earnings are dragging the DOW down. Have we reached the peak? Isn't it likely that other earnings now will also come short of what was expected of companies that are trading at all-time highs? Was this the last bull's breath, at least until Ben intervenes again?

BA is moving the Dow lower....delay delivery of JetStreamer...

When the situation changes, I change the plan.

Picked up some MEE last Wed under 22 as a l/t value play.

All of a sudden it's a s/t play as the Daily RSI7 shoots up from the 60's to the 91 area.

"Don't look a gift horse in the mouth"

Out at just over 27.

thank you Bill,

regarding the deletion comment:

i was concerned that it may be poor etiquite to
post comments from The Gartman Letter as its a
paid subscribership,

i may just be paranoid, are there are legitimate legal issues against posting something as such?

thx,

Can anyone find me an asset class that isn't up over double digits in the past 2 months? Who needs sector rotation strategies when I can invest in anything I want and make money!

Small, large, domestic, international, farming, tech it doesn't really matter anymore does it?

I had a client come into my office yesterday proudly boasting how well diversified he is in his 401k (in all his 3 funds) but needed me to offer a suggestion on how he could avoid losses while still maintaining a 100% stock allocation. When I opined that he needed to place some portion in a bond fund he scoffed and said "and what earn 5%?!?" He said he would add some more international exposure to help further "diversify".

When I ran a comparative chart showing the his Large Growth, Large Value fund and World Growth fund wouldn't you know the chart of the three look all the same. I was hoping he would see high correlation and no diversification in this current global asset bubble but all he saw was one of the funds doing about 5% better year to date then the other. One is up 20% the other 15%. Now that's diversification!!!!!

I'm parket at Yosemite, and there's a big old bear jumping up and down on the hood of my station wagon.....

NOT.V- anyone trading? not sure if it's been halted-quotes have stopped on fidelity platform...

Halted for an update:

October 10, 2007 - 01:10:53 PM

Noront Provides Project Update

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Oct. 10, 2007) - Noront Resources Ltd.
("Noront")(TSX VENTURE:NOT) is pleased to announce progress of diamond
drilling program on its' Company's Double Eagle project located in James Bay
Lowlands, northeastern Ontario.

HIGHLIGHTS

- Hole NOT-07-07 that undercut hole NOT-07-05 intersected the mineralized zone
at 72.5 meters core length and remained in it until 123.5 meters, including a
total of 24.7 meters of massive sulphide;

- Hole NOT-07-09 intersected the mineralized zone at 45.8 meters core length
and remained in it until 88.55 meters, including two sections of massive
sulphide totaling 22 meters, followed by a section of net textured peridotite;

- Drilling completed on Eagle One Ni-Cu-PGE occurrence infers a massive
sulphide magmatic nickel mineralized, surrounded in part by net textured
sulphides in peridotite within a much larger variably mineralized steeply
dipping peridotite that has an 80 degree dip to the west, with a steep plunge
along a southerly strike;

- QA/QC program underway, first three batches fall within the limits as
determined by acceptable industry practice;

- Noront increases land position to 30,208 hectares, and staking continues
around the "Ring of Fire".

- Detailed ground geophysical program continues, large airborne survey
contract awarded to Aeroquest International Limited, overseen by Scott Hogg
and Associates;

- Latest hole underway NOT-07-12, a 37.5 meter southerly step-out from hole
NOT-07-01 and NOT-07-02 intersected massive sulphide mineralization between
83.6 meters and 92 meters for a massive sulphide intersection of 8.4 meters,
followed by net textured nickel and copper sulphide mineralization to 182
meters after which 30.3 meters of lean sulphide bearing peridotite host rock
was encountered, this hole is currently still in highly altered peridotite and
will be stopped once the granodiorite is encountered.

NOT.V quotes also stopped on BMO Investorline.

N2son wrote "Does anyone else have an opinion on the difference between the integrated oils versus the servicers?"

My 2 cents . . I think "servicers" is the place to be if you invest in energy. Oils face rising costs and diminishing oilfield supply. Increased demand for drilling results in higher prices for the "servicers" although a global recession impact would cool that (unlikely with Chindia factor).

IMO, SLB (no position at this time ) looks like the best of breed. Recently established GLBL position. In and out of PKD last month or so when sundance mentioned it below 8.

As you said earlier, things overall look very overbought. geckojb's comments remind me of 2000. Slowly building more cash and enjoying the dance of the PMs.

Lakeshore gold LSG-t

Raymond James has raised its net asset value per share (NAVPS) estimate for Lake Shore Gold Corp. (TSX-LSG). The raised estimate eflects higher gold price forecasts for fiscal 2007, 2008 and 2009 — to US$750, $770 and $675, respectively. The brokerage bases its multiple on high optimization potential at Timmins West, good exploration potential at Thunder Creek and a historical reading of price to net asset value.
Rating: Strong Buy.
Target price: $2.75. Net Asset Value Per Share: Raised to $2.21 from $2.07.

No position

Dr. Cosa: re: info from paid sites

I post every now and again comments from realmoney.com or minyanville.com. I use the theory that as long as I give the sites credit for the posts (and don't overuse them), it may give them exposure for others to look at the sites and decide if it is worth the money to subscribe. I know I have made decisions that way.

Bill -

Tim Knight @ Slope of Hope dusted off a classic, late-80s journalistic shortcut "The Greater Fool" to describe some of the Chinese stocks' vertical moves last week. All momentum leaders I track share the parabolic feel and a march upwards since mid-Aug. to a tune of 80%+ up days. Maybe the same musical chair game of chicken is seeping into broader names.

JML

geckojb,

According to BMO - last quarter in the US, large cap growth funds were up 6.4% whereas small-cap value were down 5.3%.

Small cap value has been hit hard and not come back. Same thing happenned in 1998-2000 period in an even more extreme manner, and then small cap value exploded in 2001, even as the S&P500 was still going down.

I just hope that we don't have to suffer for such a long drought.

Help!

NOT.V- assuming interpretation of results will not be good, as i now see bid/ask in theh 3.01 range...

Cara 100

I cant resist ...I have to post this.Tell it like it is.LOL

Exxon Mobile and Imperial Oil

By Investor's Digest

In a followup to earlier advice, editor Bob Howard reviews some of his energy holdings. He continues to hold a bullish outlook for names like Exxon Mobile (NYSE-XOM, $92.30) and Imperial Oil (TSX-IMO, $46.43).

Mr. Howard says you almost have to feel sorry or Brian Belski and "the fools at Merrill who have doubted the energy rally all along — it would be funny if it weren't so sad."

There's still no shortage of doom and gloom in the energy patch. Mr. Howard, however, thinks there's at least a 50/50 chance that by year-end oil prices will go to US$90 a a barrel. "If you are bullish on natural gas, then two of the best plays in that area are Exxon and Imperial

COST: Short interest in this stock was pretty high @ 15M shares over the last few months. I imagine that today's action was a bit of a squeeze.

bb, yes I am aware of the slightly longer time frame of small issues (value and core) under-performing but I believe even the small caps have rallied in my noted time frame above albeit less than the large caps.

I cashed out of PAL this morning at 8.60 larely on impulse after selling GMO early and the wrong way, on the phone with the kid at the brokerage. I sold the URZ near the 4 level which was sort of my plan, and I was, sadly, shaken out of the GSS at a tiny loss this morning caused by taking on an uncomfortably large size. This was caused by hubris and greed, and by then adhering to a RAZOR stop, I gave the stock to a guy who took it up 12 cents in ten minutes and undoubtedly, sold it. I really felt as though I'd fleeced myself.

Last 6 trades, 5 profitable, one did 17% and one did 12%.

Leisa...Congratulations, you are my hero, but you know that!

By the way, I actually can spell reel good.

Shark_A--Oh you flatter me! I love it! Well, I let go of some SEED at 10 and it is trading at above 10.80 as I write! Still have my core holding. EGO and WGDFF doing well. I have Bill and contributors here to thank for WGDFF and Peterdag (George Dagnino) to thank for EGO.

shark- "I gave the stock to a guy who took it up 12 cents in ten minutes and undoubtedly, sold it. I really felt as though I'd fleeced myself..."
so you're the one jumping up and down on the hood ;)

NOT.V- unbelievable...added around 3.15 5 minutes ago, and letting it go now at 3.42...

2nd, I had an order to buy at 3.50 since this AM, it was filled during the bomb drop at 3.15 too.

From Minyanville Buzz and Banter.
Enjoy!

http://tinyurl.com/324fts

Let's put this this way...I sold during what was and should have been a buying oppty based on trading too large a size, That was my mistake. I was, however, referring to a more general bearishness which just now seems to be dissipating a bit.

PAL just did 100 shares at 8.36, so sometimes it pays to be a bear.....
GGGRRRRRRRRRRROOOOOWWWWLLLLL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NOT- is anyone in the industry able to translate the drill results...is there is a negative slant in there, if not is it a buying opportunity..

I went short a little bit of AKAM this morning at 37.40. I admittedly missed the last couple bucks to the upside, but that was after a few profit taking/reloads (first buy was in the the high 28s). This one has just gone too far too fast. The big gap up looked to good to be true for longs.

Well - I hope someone braver than me held on to their AKAM all the way to the 37s.

DJIA- a u-turn into a positive close still possible...wouldn't rule it out...

XLE hitting new 52 wk high....

geckojb -

Your client has been infected by the mildly sedative lullaby that most (if not all) mainstream financial media outlets regurgitate: "diversification eliminates your risk." Unfornately, some of the hard lessons from 2000-02 seem to have been forgotten. Investing as a matter of risk management in search of higher compensation.

BTW, if you ache to not participate in the run-up, I can offer you a share of my trading portolio which I can't seem to get straight and - at least- close to the market run-up.

JML

Shark Attack

Me and 2nd_ave just shot that bear on your hood...

He's trying to crawl back into the woods..

Bloomberg reporting rumor on trading floor that Toll Brothers is buying Hovnanian.

1 + 1 = 0

Nonsense.

shark_attack, or anyone,

My Ameritrade Streamer has headline: UBS upgrade GSS target $6. but I can't find an article with details.

Shark, do you know?

I still have some GSS.

Thanks everyone

PS. my other post refers to this article:
Tapping the Blues Away, by Tom Hanson:
Here's a simple but surprisingly potent energy builder that you can do sitting at your desk, staring at your screen, pretending to be focused.

moneygenie..

getting the same message on Etrade...Re GSS

moneygenie..

getting the same message on Etrade...Re GSS

Does anyone know why UXG is falling? Were there any important news about it recently? If no fundamentally bad news came out about the company, then this is a great buying opportunity... What do you guys think about it?

IVN-T
IVN-n

Closed position at 14.62.Bob's camel needs a rest!

Searched news on GSS found nothing. Still chagrined re: my earlier GSS play and am still licking my wounds (bearclaws) but GSS looks like it's going up to me. My ego is bruised though.

*DJ Golden Star Tgt Raised To US$6 From US$4.50 At UBS >GSS

It was on my Fidelity.

AUY up >6% on above average volume, nearing resistance at the July & August highs. Looks like possible institutional buying activity.

Is it becoming the crowded trade with hedgies playing the gold move with carry trade financing?

I did see unually large trades and an unusually frequent number of this in GSS toward the close. Isn't it amazing how HB and B's
(and others') prop desks are so good at accumulating stock without moving the price much? That always astounds me. Will look to buy on any kind of bargain, either gold's up, stock's down, whatever. Anyway, enjoy the ride!

And goodnight all. I go to bed early these days, fighting bears and all........

Bill:
Yesterday you posted an extract of an email from your friend, the VAL executive; and I perked up at the following approach to valuation:

“Assuming in situ vale of 10% spot price, I arrive at the number of $41,760,000 in gold value.” Based on his ‘reserve’ numbers, he was assuming gold at $720/oz.

I’ve spent some time today looking at Seabridge Gold (SA-A; SEA-X) today, as I believe its price performance this year to have been great and its strength, relative to its pm ‘peers’ to be very strong.

At today’s price, and with 36.97 million sh. outstanding, the market cap. is $1.13B. with notable shareholders being-
3 top executives, Rudi Fronk, Wm Threkheld & Rod Chisholm 2.57million
Pan Atlantic Bank (and related entities), of which Albert D Friedberg
of the Friedberg Mercantile Group is the principal 6.29million
Sprott Asset Management 1.15million
(VanEck’s) Market Vector ETF 256,000

I’ve tallied up the resources – measured, indicated, and inferred, with most being the latter categories, as published in March, 2007 ( since which time successful drill results have been announced and more results are pending indicating significant resource expansion).

My calculation, using the March numbers is 28.82 million oz. x $720 x 10% = $2.075 Billion.

My scrutiny also revealed other ‘positives’ commending SA (which I am happy to share if anyone is interested) but I have not yet taken a position.

Bill and others: Please, can you tell me what you know about the jockeys, notably, Rudi Fronk? Or anything else?

Regards all.

joey

I opened a position in SRS (Short Real Estate) today, to add some short exposure to my portfolio. I have a couple of reasons why I saw today as a good entry. First, I saw the daily RSI for SRS pop back above 30, and volume increase. IYR (Dow Jones US Real Estate has had a nice counter trend bear market rally from it's lows, and it's Daily RSI is above 70)... SRS is the anti IYR. Second, with Gold and Oil, heck with all commodities in rally mode pushing into new territory, interest rates (bond rates) will respond to the upside in my opinion. This will further weigh on an industry already in much pain and clearly defined downtrend. In at 80.20. My two cents.

Thank you, Bill, for the explanation of the UXG situation! But didn't they discover something very positive a few months ago, when their stock jumped from $4 to $5.5? If they were to stop exploration now and start going into production (with the gold deposits they have already confirmed), what would you say the fair price of their stock would be?

Hope everyone is well. It's been a long time since i last commented and hope everyone is doing well!

Question for the community, but I hope Bill chimes in too.

Is CFC worth anything to a HB&B especially with another likely rate cut? Even if a group could buy the CFC debt for cheap, would they?

Reason I ask is because my opinion is it can drop a lot more. When the october foreclosure numbers hit the street i sense the entire housing/mtg industry will be impacted, but will another rate cut be enough to lift the tide back up?

Thx guys

Bill:
Wanting to be clear about the possessor of the horse's mouth...
If I go to the Cambridge Gold Show, to whom will you introduce me? The Father of the Bride, your ValGold friend or Rudi Fronk?

Actually, I saw that curriculum vita info about the Seabridge CEO on the corporate website...imho, the industry experience of the key executives and the directors is very impressive.
An interesting tidbit about VP Wm Threlkheld:
"he was responsible for all of Placer Dome's exploration activity and investment in Latin America. Mr. Threlkeld directed programs that resulted in the discovery and delineation of Las Cristinas, Venezuela (9.7 million ounces)"

joey

Are you guys aware of the company US Global Investors (ticker GROW)? A friend of mine from Wall Street, whose job is to interview mutual fund managers and decide whether it is worth investing money of the HB&B company he works for into their funds, has recommended me this company over 2 years ago, and I have been thankful to him ever since. This is a small company that manages about 10 mutual funds, and its revenue is the advisory fee they charge for managing these funds (about 2% of the assets under management). Their 3 largest funds are UNWPX (precious metals and minerals), PSPFX (energy), and EUROX (Eastern Europe), which jointly cover more than 90% of their NAV. So investing into GROW is a very leveraged way of investing into these markets. They currently have about $5.35 bln assets under management, and so a 10% growth in their funds gives them $535M of pure profit, and their total market cap is currently $348M! Besides, as my friend told me a year ago (which I still hope is true), UNWPX and PSPFX are among the very few good funds in their respective sectors that still accept new funds. Therefore, their NAV can grow simply because people will invest more money into their funds!

GROW has a very volatile stock (there are relatively few outstanding shares), and so it is a trader's dream. Their stock was $33 in April 07, and it has recently fallen down to $19, simply because of a pessimistic phase in investor's sentiment. Today they confirmed, as expected, that their funds are still growing, and its stock jumped by 20% to $22.88. I think it still has a long way to go up, and there is no reason for it not to set new highs soon.

Long GROW.

IMO, the "gold carry trade" is a bunch of BS.

Sure, momentum based, computer generated trading platforms will jump on gold if their models tell them to, but that trade comes and goes.

The continuing "story" of hedge funds buying gold with the yen carry is a story used by gold bears to push gold lower when the opportunity arises.

Carry trade traders use PAPER vehicles. Not Gold. If you doubt me, ask yourself this; how many stories do you hear about hedge funds knocking the cover off the ball by buying gold? Now, how many hedge funds do you hear about that are closing or suspending client redemptions due to the subprime problems? These guys borrow cheap and leverage up high yielding PAPER securities, like mortgage backed PAPER. HB&B makes their big money trading/brokering in the credit markets, not the gold markets.

Just my $0.02.

NYU GRAD

Good news bad news no news..
What happens the market goes up up up...

I agree with you Re: the problems they are having and being the largest lender they are the poster child.

When the numbers are released and they are bad..What will happen? The rate cuts will help and CFC will go higher...

I don't know if there will ever be a time to get short this market but I know it is not now...

Here is how it will play out for the BEARS huge short squeeze happening probably on a Friday..Then some news will break over the weekend and the futures will be taken apart, but it will all happen before we can even react..The Bears have been loosing for years and this would only add insult to injury..

There will be no way to react only watch and hope as BILL has said SELL INTO STRENGTH

One of my concerns with the gold market recently was how long the Gold specluators have become according to the COT report. The last time they were this long, gold had a significant pullback. This has been holding me back from getting longer gold.

Anyhow, was reading on Minyanville that there is a precedent for this:

"Gold speculators are currently about as long gold futures as I have ever seen them. At first, I thought this would be bearish and would probably limit any upside in gold in the near-term. But after a little research, I found an interesting analog. See the chart below. Back in 2005 (around the end of September) gold speculators (white line) made a massive bet on gold (red line). They went net long over 200,000 gold futures contracts shortly before gold ripped from $450 to $700+. Talk about smart money!"

Full article at http://tinyurl.com/2mbuuz

David, you said:
"A friend of mine from Wall Street, .. has recommended ... and I have been thankful to him ever since."

An impression from the hip...that post has all the buzz words of spam. I accept that impulse reactions can be wrong.

ohhh..see, already wrong.

Bill, since we seem to be getting your opinion on various management today, what do you know of Mark Bailey at Minefinders Corp. (MFL)?

Northgate Minerals
nxg-us
ngx-t

nice turnaround in late day trading.stock is up 5.34 % in us,only up 2.31 % in canada closing on its daily high of $2.66.shark and joggy must be smiling.maybe tomorrow for me.
no position

Thanks, Bill, for sharing your opinion about the CEO of US Global Investors.

Jasper: I have honestly described how GROW makes its money, and you can check their public statements to see that this is indeed how they operate. Now it remains for investors only to decide whether the biggest funds managed by US Global Investors (UNWPX, PSPFX, and EUROX) will go up or down from their current levels. Here is where Bill's opinion of Fank Holmes becomes relevant, since a smart manager should have successful funds. The web site of US Global Investors (http://www.usfunds.com/main_intro.asp)currently has several very interesting presentations, including "Gold: Thriving or Surviving?" and "Gloom, Doom or Boom? Analysis of the Global Economic Expansion." You can read these presentations and judge for yourself whether these guys know what they are talking about. At the beginning of the second presentation they state that the UNWPX fund is a winner of the 2007 Lipper fund award for the best Gold-oriented fund, which ranked 1 out of 49 funds in its category over the three-year period ending 12/31/06. Their PSPFX fund is also a winner of the 2007 Lipper fund award for the best Natural Resources fund, which ranked 1 out of 72 funds in its category over the five-year period ending 12/31/06. So if you believe in gold and natural resources, GROW seems like a very good investment.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2007/24/markets_07bub_Asias-200-Best-Under-A-Billion_Company_print.html

For those of you interested in the headline catalyst on SEED, you can find it at the above link. My personal opinion on headline moves is that they are quick, highly directional and short lived.

Regarding Minefinders, they had a decent presentation at the Denver Gold Forum. They plan to be in production with their Dolores mine by 2Q of '08.

BTW, the Ivanhoe presentation simply rocked. I know this company already carries a pretty high valuation, but they have 49 million ounces of gold, and over a billion in copper and a ton of coal. They also have a very "close" relationship with Rio Tinto.

how many on this board (other than g034 and maybe markm) would have stuck with gold this long in the ABSENCE of bill's call on the sector? to be fair, after substantial gains trading on his calls, even i bailed out of the bulk of my positions around XAU 147, leaving a cool 20% on the table (hit 178 intraday)...congrats to jasper, OG, n2son, and SH for taking it to the current top...now the question is how much further do we have to go...

(green arrow-also impressed with your 25% move on GS...what's your exit plan)>...

"IMO, the "gold carry trade" is a bunch of BS."

GO34: As I understand it the gold carry trade has nothing to do with borrowing the yen cheap and buying gold. (Though one can borrow yen cheap and buy any asset class). Rather it is the leasing of gold to "short sellers" who pay the banks in cash so that the Central/other banks can earn interest on their gold-swapped-for-cash. They in turn sell the gold but have to buy it back to return it to the lessor.

Do I misunderstand your statement?

Dear Tradingmychips,

Just to clarify, I didn't go long NXG the other day when JogyP and I were discussing it. The chart didn't meet my criteria for being buyable. Of course, to my lament, the price deteriorated subsequent to that time.

The only picks I'll listen to anymore are Leisa's anyway.

That is me trying to be funny, in case anyone misunderstands.

Thanks 2nd_ave, I've been thinking about that as I read through the daily comments. I'm trying to make my decisions based on the technicals and while the price seems to be peaking, it is still going strong. I'm keeping a close eye on it and will close out when SMA5 crosses SMA10 or RSI 7 crosses RSI 14 and $229 is my new stop loss. On this trade I'm not trying to lock in a max gain, but rather letting the technicals make that decision for me. I've been trying to look at volume but don't see a correlation with the stock price, looks like it's back to the books to try and understand that. What leading indicators do you use to plan your exit?

Bill said "I intend to use the same technology for premium services such as the Cara 100 Reports and the "Trader Wizard Lessons" eTraining platform, and possibly the "Lessons From the Trader Wizard" book, depending on rights/agreement with the publisher." and "It will be started before year-end." All I want to say is WoW, this is going to be the best Christmas ever!

Rob McEwen published drill results that he was not overly enthused with. UXG is finding mineralization but not the "Cortez elephant" he was hoping for -- at least not yet. He is becoming impatient.

I think it may have migrated.

Mr. Patrick Anderson reports

AURELIAN INTERSECTS 250 METRES GRADING 35.18 G/T GOLD AND 264 METRES GRADING 5.40 G/T GOLD IN INFILL DRILLING AT FDN

Long on ARU
Brian

2nd, FWIW I've been a goldbug (though not with Kaimu's determination) for many years and I'm fairly new to Bill's blog. My biggest position is ABX, which I started accumulating a couple of years ago. I can't move as quickly as you do, so probably leave a lot of trading profits on the table. Looking at a 20 year chart of ABX I see it as still quite low in an upchannel risng at 21% a year that gives me a target of $300 at its upper boundary, but probably not tomorrow :-). In general I don't trade the golds, although I recently sold GOLD (worried about the floods in west Africa - no response to my email query to the co.) only to see it keep rocking on.
Also sold UXG, for reasonable profit - to me it looks as though the mineralization they've encountered is too deep for the grade, and the chart looks rather ugly. Thinking of adding to PMU holding but I don't like chasing anything rising 20% a month.

Hoosier-

I like your outside the box thinking there.

Bill- g034 is a pro. Listen to him. Check. We get it.

$USD has a 77 handle this morning. Gold is breaking out of the box. If CBers are paying attention, this will not be tolerated. If they are powerless, we will find that out too.

New positions are higher risk here of course. Not ideal for me.

If you need to find me I occasionally post at BDG123's Economic Ranting's blog. I sometimes lay things at Leisa's doorstep as well if they are important. But only on my way by.

Good luck and good trading.