From today's Asian Times:
With its economy in overdrive, along with rampant pollution, US$1.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, and a growing imbalance between the haves and have-nots, Beijing is pledging big changes that include redoubling efforts to stem environmental destruction, encouraging investment overseas, and relieving the plight of the rural poor. Whether sustained, solid action will follow the words is another question. (Oct 4, '07)

http://tinyurl.com/2hj8g3

Bill,
Lets hope Ron Paul gets the time of day from the mainstream media. (LOL)

Ron Paul's performance on the recent PBS-hosted Republican Presidential Contenders debate of the 'lesser lights", i.e. absent the major front-runners, IMHO was less than coherent; he came across as agitated and strident and had a very vocal cheering section adding to his somewhat flaky image.

Pity we can't vote for Undersecretary of Fiscal and Monetary Policy.

Cara 100 Royal Bank
ry-t
ry-n
Scotia Capital
Oct 03/07
Div. (Current) C$2.00
Rating: 1-Sector Outperform
Target 1-Yr: C$75.00 ROR 1-Yr: 36.3%
Risk Ranking: Low 2-Yr: C$85.00 2-Yr: 57.6%
Yield %3.5

Long all can. banks

Bruce,

Your post reminds me of a sad, elemental fact.

I was a very disillusioned Bill Clinton voter in '92, and despite his "successes", I found him to be a very bad Democrat and not at all what we were hoping for. I am dismayed at the job the media is doing on behalf of the shrill little lady, his wife, Hilary.

John Edwards is the natural candidate, southen, male, good looking, experienced, but he can't get arrested in the American media. His message (and that of the other candidates) is being
SWEPT UNDER THE RUG BY A MEDIA THAT HAS TOTAL ALLEGIANCE AND PAYS COMPLETE FEALTY TO HILARY CLINTON!!!

Hilary is the media's darling, she's the de-facto democrat candidate, and it's basically because the 8 year corruption and shenanigans machine known as the Bill Clinton presidency has so much pull, has so many who either are in debt to it or who are in allegiance with it, this really is just the Clinton political machine all over again. In fact, the effort to slam-dunk Hilary intoo the top job actually seems to be a bi-partisan effort. this is so that when she gets there she can raise taxes on Kaimu and destroy Social Security as we know it.

Except with one difference. You and I aren't buying it. Not for one second.

And it's true. Although I am a lifelong Democrat with a totalitarian streak, the fact is, I can't stand this shrill woman.
And the media's effort to install Hilary as commander-in-chief offends me.

Canadian Banks

Easy way to play a "basket" of canadian banks!Symbol ALB-T

ALLBANC SPLIT CORP. II is invested in a portfolio of common shares of Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, The Bank of Nova Scotia and The Toronto-Dominion Bank.

I'm not quite as assertive in my description, but I agree in principle with Chris.

It's the Howard Dean business plan. Build the momentum into a story and then knock it down for more coverage/ratings.

Breaking news: The media thinks we are all a bunch or morons and we buy their BS like everything else. They'll listen when we shut them off.

Well now this morning made things interesting.

The BoE and ECB both held rates.

Now BenDover has a real problem. The Europeans walked up to him and pulled the pin on his grenade, then sauntered off.

So now Mr. Sweaty Palms is standing there with the spoon clamped in his hands, trying to figure out how in the devil he can find something that looks like a pin to jamb back in the hole!

Watch the dollar today guys. Interestingly enough the Euro is selling off - not quite what I expected, but heh, it is what it is.

Trichet is being a major inflation hawk in his speech too......

Hmmmm....... this looks like its going to get very interesting both for Trichet and BenDover.... not to mention the US Economy and equity markets.

I have just published my monthly performance round-up for global stock markets for measurement periods until September 30, 2007. Here's the intro:

A credit squeeze … financial market turmoil … declining stock markets … recessionary threats ... A fait accompli, or so many market participants “logically” reasoned at crunch time in July / August.

Ah, but have things turned out so differently, at least for the moment? “Look what they’ve done to my song, ma … and they turned it upside down …,” I can hear Melanie’s voice intoning the sad lyrics.

Say hello to “inflate or die”, the era of easy monetary policy piloted by …

Please follow the link below for a few interesting observations:

http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/04/are-global-stock-markets-on-steroids-performance-round-up-%e2%80%93-sept-30-2007/

Hi!

Seen from Europe, today's BOE and ECB decisions make real sense.

Mr. Helicopter is in deep, and he now has a choice: recession now or further cuts and nasty recession later...

The only question is how will the sell side keep on pumping this market, now that the chance that Mr. Helicopter will go on a cutting spree has objectively narrowed.

And, with higher interest in Europe, how will the US tech companies meet those inflated earnings expectations aired by the sell side just a few days ago? Sell now or dump later?

Proffit taking becomes natural here, and adding some short positions too.

Enjoy the ride.

Cheers,

"There are some times, like today, when you just have to see how the central bankers around the world intend to play this credit market and housing market crisis. In a few hours we’ll hear from the BoE and ECB. If they do nothing about interest rates, they will probably sell some gold to knock their currencies down a bit. Following that sell-off will be the best time to re-enter on the long side.

Longer-term (in the interim of say a year or more), I think we'll have a short Gold Bear and then a new Gold Bull that will take the POG above 1000. That ought to give the central banks sufficient time to clean up the problems with credit/housing/over-heated China & India, during which there will be a Bear. And when they pump money in again to resolve the reverse wealth-effect problems from the Bear, I believe that Gold will soar again."

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 4, 2007 12:34 AM

Re-posted from last night...appears gold is in fact beginning to sell off...will be looking for to go long if we get that familiar downside spike..

WAG:
RSI7 (M-W-D): 35.16 - 27.36 - 18.20

MarkM - Are you a buyer here or waiting for a buy signal?

GFI: analyst's comments on cost pressures:

"One issue is a weaker U.S. dollar. While a soft dollar can boost gold prices, it hurts companies that earn those dollars but pay expenses in another currency, like South African rand or Australian dollars.

Another issue is rising expenses, as wages rise and costs for chemicals and equipment climb.

Gold Fields, for example, reported Aug. 1 that cash costs rose to $376 an ounce from $330 in its 2007 fiscal year. The company at the time noted that the cost of cyanide was about 30% higher in fiscal 2007, cement 17% higher, steel 10% higher and the cost of tires up 58% on the year at operations in Ghana.

Wage pressures also are rising. Earlier this month AngloGold, Gold Fields and Harmony signed a 2007-2009 wage agreement that included a wage hike of 8.5% for most workers."

PKD- drifted back to mid-September breakout range...scaling into a swing trade at 7.87..

PKD may have moved down in sympathy of competitor WTI, which was downgraded today. These stocks are also weak due to pullback in price of oil.

WGDFF- back in at 3.37...

On gold (and in reaction to Bill's earlier comments):

It was inevitable for gold bullion to run into a correction after having rallied by almost $100 at one stage. But don't let the pull-back distract us from gold's longer-term glitter. Ignoring short-term shenanigans, I believe we are in the second (investment demand) phase of the gold bull-market cycle, as evidenced from the fact that the gold price has been appreciating in most major (and minor) currencies. This uncoupling from currencies is a strong sign of investor demand. The current correction offers a great opportunity to stock up on the yellow stuff.

"will be looking [for]strikeout to go long.." sorry..some typos bother me more than others...

jasper- are you looking to add...

JogyP-

I think the risk/reward ratio is 4:1 with WAG at $39. Range: $35-59. Two years. JMHO.

I am looking to reload on miners. Did everyone have a sell strategy in place? You HAVE to have that. You need that with such a volatile asset class. Same with the oils and oil servicers if anyone plays with XLE and OIH.

2nd ave...

Helpful posts. Thanks...and thank you Bill for your recap!

2nd...looks like you are going to be rewarded for your patience...rsi on .gdm has crossed neutral territory and will have to reset..but it's the close of today that will count. Production cost is becoming more formidable. I wonder if the Harmony mishap(i hope not tragedy) is part of the story, now, too.

EZA had more strength yesterday and huge volume in the morning. Towering spike. The rand could be bottoming. Only a wild guess.

Sorry folks.... I'm still trying to learn.

Can someone lead me in the right direction to understand this RSI that everyone in this group often refers to.

Thanks

Isaiah64v4:

Checkout this for link for RSI info
http://tinyurl.com/2c5gdo

Isaia, have a look at John Murphy's very comprehensive definition of RSI at:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_in

Gold and silver spot shot up in last 1/2 hour.

Aurelian out with a resource estimate - 13.7 million ounces inferred at a 2.3 g/t Au equivalent:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071004/0310896.html

Northern Dynasty also out with drill results but very muted reaction for some reason:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071004/0310955.html

This didn't affect me today, but gold did a huge fake-out. Woe to the active gold trader, who has no idea what do do eh? First it's down, then it's up, then it's down.... oy ve! Make up yer mind!

MNG still looks to be breaking out, I just don't trust gold here.

Aurelian Resources Inc
(TSX:ARU)

UP 12 %

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Oct. 4, 2007) - Aurelian Resources Inc. (TSX:ARU) today announced the first National Instrument 43-101-compliant, inferred mineral resource estimate for Fruta Del Norte (FDN), a buried epithermal gold-silver discovery on its wholly-owned Condor Project in south-eastern Ecuador. An initial inferred resource of 58.9 million tonnes grading 7.23 g/t gold (Au) and 11.8 g/t silver (Ag) for 13.7 million ounces of contained gold and 22.4 million ounces of contained silver was determined at a cut off grade of 2.3 g/t gold-equivalent. The company also announced preliminary metallurgical testing has confirmed that gold recoveries in the order of 85-95% can be obtained using well-proven gold-silver recovery processes.

The table below summarises the resource estimate at a 2.3 g/t(4) Au equivalent cut-off grade:

Webcast and Conference Call

Aurelian will be hosting a conference call today at 11 a.m. (Eastern) to discuss the initial inferred resource and metallurgy. Patrick Anderson, President and CEO, George Bee, COO and Tim Warman, VP of Corporate Development will be available to answer questions during the call. To participate in the call, please dial 416-644-3416 or 1-800-733-7560. An archived recording of the call will be available at 416-640-1917 (passcode 21248699 followed by the number sign) from 1:00 p.m. today to 11:59 p.m. on October 11th.

A live audio webcast of the conference call and simultaneous slides will be available at http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=95348&s=1&k=6A357BA39F19E9C7DEF64695982668F0 or www.newswire.ca. The archived recording of the webcast will be available at www.aurelian.ca.

Long ARU-T

2nd ave.
Added slightly to slw at 13.32......looking to add more but hesitating now. SLW and Wgdff are the only specific miners I want to concentrate on. The core will be in eza and gdx.

Volatility is huge. When I look at a percentage screen it's like I've gone to the casino and forgotten how much my chips are really worth. Mark M is so right. The ole mantra must have an exit plan. I'll see if I can learn how to sell and re-load without getting distracted from other longer plays and positioning. I'm not a multi task person.

MarkM,
Could you give an example sell strategy you would have in place?

SDA just hit a new 52 week high.

Sorry, make that a new 17-year high.

With regard to the miners, the oscillators tell me we're in for continued weakness on the daily. The MACD has rolled over everywhere I look.

The hourly charts tell a different story. If I were trading SLW now (I'm not) I'd be looking to take profits at $14.09 (that's the upper channel on the 14 envelope). FWIW.

Quent-

One example. When the Gold/XAU ratio spiked to 5.2 earlier that was a huge BUY signal to me. As it moves closer to 4 the risk/reward ratio morphs and I go from long miners to long miners plus gold to long gold as I tamp down on beta.

Mr. Simpleton's (g034) trendline break system has worked beautifully for entries and exits this whole run.

KRY making a move apparently on this news

http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=3961

JogyP, ironic that KRY would move on this news. I read it to mean more delays.

You need the patience of a saint to hold on to this stock.

Anybody nibbling on NAK lately? Seems to be flagging up today off the bottom of its channel is it recovers from the mid-August pullback. I recall a few people on the board were really high on this stock earlier this summer.

http://tinyurl.com/yrlfo9

.gdm with usd and eur

Some time back I believe that Bill pointed out that gold moves can be decoupled with interest rates or the dollar. More recently he referred to possibly decoupling with .usd, and that we watch the euro index(" Onwards and upwards until it doesn’t. For clues to that watch to see if the Euro declines and the USD lifts. "..I tread carefully referring to our host but want to follow as best as possible).

On fidelity real time chart.....gdm has shown good support of the 20dma yesterday and today. Makes me wonder if that's a floor instead of the 50dma.

Re: KRY
number2son -I agree with you. I am only reporting the news and possible reason for the move.

I am holding my position in NAK. The drill results didn't include a resource estimate for some reason. I don't see any catalyst to really move this stock unless it becomes a takeover target. It is considerably undervalued but could stay that way.

nice u-turn on gold prices...waiting for OIH to turn green as well..

OIH just turned green.
I exited DUG and QID this morning with small gains. Added SLW and GSS.

NutriSystem IncNASDAQ:NTRI

1/3 of its capital vanished this morning. Took advantage of the overdone panic and fear.

AKAM has broken downward to 30 after its big run. Could be a good setup for a new entry or reload.

Kaimu:
You made too big a statement based upon too little information from your two friends residing in the little island Macu outside of mainland China. The globalization thing is for real. There are going to be a few bumps on the road, but don't be panick. Just tighten your safety belt and don't look back, 'cause it's much bright looking forward. The chance for another Cold War is very slim. And not sure another cold war is good for gold price either, could be down. Either way, don't bet on it. The way I see the globalization is going to play out is nonzero-sum game, everybody win through corporation and fair competition. The big trend is clearly up-pointing.
I heard someone tried one year without using anything made-in-China. He did it and in the end wrote a book about it. His own conclusion is you get a different kind of life and he doesn't want to try it again.
Another guy tried live a short period of time without using email. He quit in a month. Not sure if you want to try not getting on the internet, say, for a month! Hope your anti-globalization is just a temperaray thing.

With respect

jasper/jogyp- nice entries on slw, now at 13.75..

Reloaded the AKAM at 30.12. Seems to me a technical move to freak out the option holders. I think this could very likely be above 31 by EOD if market conditions do not deteriorate.

Hey Bill,

As per your cheaper indy car comment, you may find this video interesting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaWoo82zNUA&mode=related&search=

the great part is that this car is street legal (in Britain anyways).

NTRI - Looking at a 5-yr chart, it's just begun to fall.

2nd ave,
With the right entries and exits a little trading can add up. SLw has added something to bottom line. Almost sorry that I didn't add more to wgdff...but that would be beyond a full position. Your entry today, not bad! Re: oih sector, I have a corpse: OMNI. Bottom of trend line on two year chart. If it breaks out and keeps going, a nice return ahead. I have some gas/oil rights through out southern LA, land management tells me exploration is picking up...but hardly a single source to depend upon. Below is a source that I sometimes check for natural gas outlook. At the bottom of the page is a good link. Natural gas prices don't stay low for long.
http://tinyurl.com/ywrdf

Taking some profits on SLW here. A bit of GFI as well. Had a good entry and avg. price. Also been trading in and out of WGDFF with good results. Still hold core position in Buffett territory. Maybe a bit early, such is life.

Bernanke Stumped by Representative Ron Paul
Scott Reamer Sep 20, 2007 3:57 pm


In today's testimony before the house, Fed Chairman Bernanke was questioned by Representative Ron Paul in what was a remarkable exchange.

In today’s testimony before the house, Fed Chairman Bernanke was questioned by Representative Ron Paul in what was a remarkable exchange. Remarkable for how straightforward, lucid, and anti-statist the question was. In his questioning, Ron Paul stated:

“I want to follow up on the discussion about moral hazard. I think we have a very narrow understanding about what moral hazard really is. Because I think moral hazard begins at the very moment that we create artificially low interest rates which we constantly do. And this is the reason people make mistakes. It isn’t because human nature causes us to make all these mistakes, but there is a normal reaction when interest rates are low that there will be overinvestment and malinvestment, excessive debt, and then there are consequences from this. My question is going to be around the subject of how can it ever be morally justifiable to deliberately depreciate the value of our currency?”

His statements continued (about how much oil, gold, wheat, corn, etc. has gone up since the rate decrease) but the heart of his question was the following moral question: ...consciously depreciating the value of the USD has winners and losers (Wall Street/banks/the rich and everyone else), Mr. Bernanke. How do you constantly choose Wall Street over the rest of America?

You will not be surprised to know that B-52 Ben didn’t answer the question. He couldn’t answer the question (at least truthfully). Was he going to say that the Federal Reserve is a quasi-private institution whose prime directive is to cartelize and protect the profits of the banking industry? Was he going to say that the only policy the Fed knows is based on the flawed Keynesian logic that wealth can be created out of thin air via printing presses? Of course not.

But his non-answer is not germane. The element that Ron Paul introduced is: the morality of the Federal Reserve’s constant injection of credit into the system at the slightest hint of macroeconomic distress. And I mean slightest: we haven’t even seen a GDP print below 0. We were only down 4.2% from the ALL TIME high in the Dow (the Fed’s own research suggests that the stock market is the best leading indicator of the economy).

Back in July of 2006, I wrote a piece introducing this moral element into the discussion of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. I wrote then words that today, after a pre-emptive, forestalling 50 basis points decrease and more than $1 trillion in worldwide central bank injections of credit, are as germane as ever:

“A constant loss of value in the monetary unit forces all manner of dire consequences on economic actors: it favors consumption over saving, speculation over investment, capital over labor, and the young over the old; it prevents accurate economic calculation about the future and thus clouds investment horizons; it hollows out a country's middle class making for more class conflict between haves and have nots… there are grave time preference consequences as well that impact not only long term investment projects (as noted above) but also the very manner in which parents raise their children and how children care for their ageing parents, as well as the lessons of frugality and hard work that once were the bedrock of this nation.”

Bravo to Ron Paul for giving voice to the hundreds of millions or pensioners, savers, working stiffs, poor, fixed income beneficiaries, laborers, gasoline-, bread-, milk-, and egg-buyers who weren’t able to ask Mr. Bernanke why he – like every Fed chairman before him since 1913 – screwed them for the benefit of the top 5% of the population of this country.

http://tinyurl.com/yvgfkb

PKD- exiting at 8.13 and will look for re-entry below 8...

Took profits in Aurelian (ARU) because it's up 13% today. Still like it and am hoping for a pullback. Getting beaten up by Continuum Resources (CNU), again! It just keeps going down and I'm deeply under water with it. Holding on for better or worse.

"Just when I thought that I was out they pull me back in."

Michael Corleone discussing the 2007 gold market.

Re. NTRI

Second OldGoat on this one. Fad stocks suffer brutal adjustments when the legendary straw breaks the back of the last sponsor. If shortfall is true ineslasticity for the budget-conscious, marginal customer as opposed to management sub-par execution, another canary just died alerting us of the growing strain on the median consumer.

Yet I am less nibble than some of you; so there may be a intra-day/two-day bounce to catch for all I know.

JML

Regarding globalization, I think it's here to stay and has to be adjusted to. I'm ok with it now, but don't like the imbalance of trade, for example, with China.

As far as the internet goes, I love it. Particularly the wealth of knowledge that can be tapped 24/7. One caveat...the internet is about as addictive as any thing I've seen yet. I feel qualified to comment this way because I quit smoking many years ago after a 33 yr addiction to nicotin. This is in many ways as addictive and maybe more so and I know I'll have to deal with it sooner or later. :-) That's the way I felt about smoking back then too. Everything should be in moderation, but with smoking it's pretty much black or white...hard to do just a little smoking.

RE: NTRI

The news states they're missing estimates due to competition from a diet pill. That confirms form: most people would rather take a pill in order to lose weight, and keep on eating what they're eating. No one wants to do the real work of diets. Nutrisystem has it right, in my opinion. Portion control (plus exercise) is the "secret" to weight loss and weight control. Just like Bill's RSI-based system for trading - it's clean, simple, and elegant, yet most people don't want to do the work, and would rather just "take a pill."

Question for Kaimu: Would you know what is going on with CNU? Thank you.

Risk/reward calculation does not have me re-entering miners at this level. I would possibly reconsider that position on sustained breakout on the charts. Too much chance of being "One Day Wonder".

Anyone use "principal notes"...which may/? also be called "structured notes"....Fidelity just sent these to me, maturity 2009-10 time span:

Issuer: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Offering #1: Principal Protected Notes Linked to an Equally Weighted Basket of Four Asian Currencies (MYR, IDR, INR, SGD) relative to the US dollar.
Offering #2: Principal Protected Notes Linked to an Basket of Nine Commodities - WTI Oil, Heating Oil, Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Gold, Platinum, Corn and Wheat.

Quentusrex, (in response to your message from last night)

I'd be glad to help with the spreadsheet if I can, though I will say from an ideological standpoint I prefer the website approach (no extra software needed, no OS dependencies, faster loading, lower impact on the data provider, etc). It does limit the ability of users to do their own analysis (change the RSI algorithm, for example), and right now my website is clearly behind the spreadsheet in customization and other features.

Regardless, I'd be glad to help with anything that helps the community here. So if you have a use for me with the spreadsheet project, let me know.

Jeff

Oh, and if you (or anyone else) want to get in touch, you can email me at {my username} @ {my username}.net

Looks like financials and Homebuilders turning south after the recent rally and PM and Energy getting ready to head north.
IMO, PM stocks are likely to open higher tomorrow

I think Canada is extremely vulnerable to any upset, since they have no gold in the Central Bank. So it looks like Canada is being set up for a merger with the U.S.

WGDFF- out at 3.58...why not take the 6.2%...

GFI- out at 17.81...one of the few times buying at the pre-market "sale" took more than a day to pay off ')...

In my opinion, there is a great deal of political effort to that end.

Re: Canadian Central Bank

In my opinion, it’s the citizenry to blame. How can the people hold government accountable when as a vast majority they don’t hold themselves accountable? The public doesn’t want to expend the effort to stay informed. I was at a bar with a friend of mine not too long ago, (inside the beltway), and after having a few we somehow decided it would be somewhat funny to play a version of “man on the street.” We asked well over 75 people if they knew who Ben Bernanke was. I took the wrong side of the bet, as I guessed 5% would know the answer. My friend won because no one knew the answer! Even more shocking was that a couple of the people were real estate agents, and they had no clue!

Shenanigans like this occur when the public does not stay informed enough to conduct their civic duties.

IMHO, the oils look interesting here off this pull back of about 4/5 days. Added to COP today and started buying yesterday. Initiated VLO today and will be adding to DEEP probably tomorrow or perhaps after hours today.

With respect to DEEP, OII is the leader in this space.

Sold off all my oils with the exception of DEEP (COP & TOT) about 5 days ago, but I’m just uncomfortable not having any oil in case something weird happens in the Middle East. Time will tell.

2nd ave...looks like a nice day for you!..may I be so bold to ask, how small or how large are you bets(i.e.position size, percentage of your whatever) that last less than week or day?

I like it that Bill can get excited over a plodder like PG or a penny dreadful. While I chase the merit of entering gold, the likes of PG and WfMI do nicely and they pay dividends.

2nd ave has a lot of good days. I'm just hoping some of the "steel" rubs off!

Bill
Although I am sure you would rather be 'back in the Bahamas', your increased participation and the observations you are giving us here sure make me glad that your back at the helm, Capt'n.
Cheers.

Bill/All:

I came across this Citi Report on Gold:
http://www.mediafire.com/?20idvn4xsij

I'm surprised. You would think the Citi was shorting Gold, but it looks like not anymore! Kaimu is it possible to investigate Citi's (C) position much like you did for Goldman (GS) not long ago?

I encourage everyone to read the Citi report I just posted. It's loaded w/great information & stats that I haven't seen before...

We all do best when we can 'focus'. You, Bill, particularly. Your ability to cut through the "noise" out there is why I like it so much 'in here'.
When you get it... boy, do you get it right.
We all just need to find you a way to do that in your newly chosen domocile.

Bill -

Although I understand your motivation for liking TASR's product, I am surprised that you would consider the stock worthy of consideration. Ever since they went through their fad-stock boom and bust cycle, I have always had reservations on the very fine line between vigorous defense of their product and outright promotion/pumping the two brothers leading the company straddled during the run and the collapse.

JML

Bill,

On the "GS latest takeover":

"Carney, who becomes the youngest central banker among G-7 countries, was appointed by Harper's Cabinet based on a nomination from the bank's board of directors. Harper gained sway over the board by replacing eight of its 12 members since taking office in 2006, including several directors with ties to his Conservative Party."

Wasn't the central bank supposed to be independent?

Bill, thank for the article by the “FOOLS” normally I do not peruse their site, but my step-father likes the Motely Fools. I in fact did buy COP & VLO today and also think TSO is good in here too.

I agree with the article about earnings will be reduced. I think that this info is part of the reason for the stocks trading off here short-term along with softness in oil price. Lehman Brothers cut EPS estimates on COP from 9.45 to 9.35 for 07 and 9.00 to 8.85 for 08. For VLO, Lehman raised 07 EPS by 2% and left 08 estimates unchanged. One thing I like about VLO is their ability to process sour crude which they can purchase at a lower price. Valero reports on 11/6/07 and Conoco has not set a date yet.

Whenever I have no oils, I keep coming back to the fact that the world seems only able to produce say 83 to 84 million barrels of oil per day. It seems clear that the world is heading to consuming 84 to 85 million barrels of oil per day. So the future supply demand balance seems to strongly favor the longs.

The only problem would be if the world had a strong depression that would hurt
stock prices fairly hard, a recession less so, and more of an opportunity to accumulate. And with Bush and Cheney, you never know if they are going to lose it and nuke Iran.

I’m very interested in learning how you use puts to protect and enhance returns via your HD example. I hope this is covered in detail in your book. I ordered mine and so should anyone who visits this site on a frequent basis.

Thank you again for sharing your knowledge and experience with us. T3D

jasper- keep daytrades to very manageable sizes, and the more volatile the stock, the smaller the position...for "specs," positions will never exceed 5% of the port...for ETFs, as high as 30-40%...reading btw the lines, would guess your question comes down to how much stress i would advocate carrying into each trade, which is a question only you can answer. IMO, it's not worth doing anything that causes undue anxiety...so my positions are just big enough to make them exciting, and i close one out as soon as i'm happy with the gain or holding starts becoming unpleasant...the BOS title is a misnomer as i typically have a great deal of confidence in a position, which in turn comes from seeing the same contrarian plays work out time after time (personal theory: human nature is almost impossible to alter even when people are motivated, thus the same psychological set-ups occur time and again)...this is not to say i can't be wrong, but if i am, i also have no hesitation in hitting the sell button (OG has quoted Livermore more than once-price is never too low to begin selling)...hope this helps...

"Longer-term (in the interim of say a year or more), I think we'll have a short Gold Bear and then a new Gold Bull that will take the POG above 1000. That ought to give the central banks sufficient time to clean up the problems with credit/housing/over-heated China & India, during which there will be a Bear. And when they pump money in again to resolve the reverse wealth-effect problems from the Bear, I believe that Gold will soar again."

Can you give us a time frame on when the short Gold Bear begins and how long it will last?

Thanks.

GMO:
I just started following this Nevada miner that mines Molybdenum. James Dines and Dennis Gartman have plugged it and the mineral as well, as being the next big concept play. It has received two outperform upgrades recently. Trades in the 6's on AMEX. It is currently changing its name to General Moly since it owns two large Moly mines and it wants to focus. I don't currently own shares. It has 27 mil cash and no debt. Trades under 200K shares a day. Does anyone trade/own this stock?

UXG Update

http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release.do?id=777786

"Since our last exploration release on June 12, 2007, assay results from 44 holes totaling 35,964 feet of drilling have been received. We haven't hit any home runs yet, but we are on base and it is early in the game. We have advanced our understanding of the geology and confirmed that we have encountered wide sections of the right rock types to host a Carlin style gold deposit. In addition, we are fortunate to have a large land holding in a prospective area and a healthy treasury to fund our objective of exploring aggressively for the next Cortez Hills discovery. I must emphasize that exploration is the research and development of the mining industry, and it is typically a frustratingly slow and expensive process with low odds of success. The results in this press release are positive and encouraging, but not thrilling," said Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO.

2nd ave,

Thanks for sharing some of your guidelines. Strikes me as healthy but reasonable size bets IF confident and part of a consistent strategy. When I first started trading my 401k I found that 100% in one mutual fund was the most effective way. It was possible to trade at will, daily close only, then. Over a 20 odd yr period of time I knew, and saw the hard data to back it up, that a math prof at the local state university turned 10k into 900plus k. He took advantage of the time difference in international funds...when it could be done back then. Personally, the time period that fits me is about 5-7 weeks with an etf.

Link is to an article about gold ratio's. So far seems we are on track...if I follow the charts...but the wild card is that the usd is already so low. There's some other fundies referred to that make for additonal work.
http://safehaven.com/article-8532.htm
Sent to me by one of the "smart" guys at a subscription site.

The head line reads:

ACE overhaul looking for a little tax magic.

Mr Milton was at the controls of Air Canada when it crashed causing investors and creditors to lose billions, now he is back with 1.9 billion and looking to defer(avoid) taxes.
Mr Milton should have been left is the same trash pile he left Air Canada.
Brian

Bill,

I would add to your list of Rob McEwen qualities, integrity. One can simply see that through his statement. I can fully understand the status of my investment without needing to scroll down to any buried footnotes. That is worth more than any single core sample to me.

Bill,

You are most welcome. It feels great to make a small contribution to this great site.

Here are additional reports by Citi (that are referenced as links in the first document I recommended above).

Also, I'd like to know what you/everyone in our community might think of NEWCREST MINING LTD (NCMGY.PK on Yahoo!) as a gold miner investment candidate.

The Gold Hedge Book.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/?20p59xmzqu4

Gold Healthy Physical Market Sets the Stage.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/?2r15ykyaymg

Newcrest Mining Ltd.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/?6dderxg04bk

Lastly, one question to you Bill. Do you find it odd that Citibank would be recommending investing in the gold market? Or is this normal?

Flew to the West Coast and now checking in from Morro Bay where I'll be with friends over the next few days. Kept some miners and a few other positions open while traveling through the air. Most are core positions, but a few are not; I decided to take the risk as I anticipated no change from the ECB. Actually had a decent gain in the overall portfolios upon checking balances.

Now tomorrow's employment report is a different story because the spin will be there.

Did I recently read advice to close your positions before traveling?

Time to get some dinner and then watch the Cubbies!

Great article Jasper.

Money is money, but all things being relative, I suggest to anyone who's interested to trade small positions. Start with 100 shares and only add if and when it's moving nicely in your direction. Trade small enough so that, at any given time, the entire stock market (and the whole world for that matter) can go to hell in a handbasket and you don't really mind. You're more bewildered by the nuclear exchange or whatever it is than thinking about your losses. The problem in this game isn't making money. The problem is making money while not losing as much or more money! Never let your positions be large enough so that you think of the money as money, which it isn't. It's chips that you're playing a game with, and to really play the game right, it's important to play as though it isn't money. Is the the best way to make a fortune? No, admittedly it's not.
But you'll find that not making money is far preferable to actually losing money. Your money is in truth precious, and the only way to really make sure you're not being stupid ('cause you're gonna be REAL stupid at the beginning) is to trade small. Don't worry about commissions, worry about playing the game right.

Finally, in my opinion, we all kid ourselves that we want to be really, really rich, but I think there are better ways to achieve that goal. This is a game we play because we love playing the game, and if you make a few more bucks than you lose, great.

As time goes by you'll probably trade less frequently, and with a higher winning percentage, after you educate yourself and get some miles under those tires.

Buying a stock that gapped up 5 bucks and crashed to yesterdays close is great fun, it'll put hair on your back and nuckles and it's an awesome feeling when it works, but it's not really the heart of most proper trading techniques.

Am I answering a question no one asked?

it's spelled knuckles, isn't it?

I've always imagines that a guy like Richard Dennis is missing a crucial chromosome, that he genuinely had "balls of steel" and until he learned the hard way, didn't size positions properly. This is a tough job for the fearful and those who need to be sure.

I continue to be amazed at the breadth of talent and insight of those who contribute to the discourse here. On behalf of the many lurkers here, thanks to shark and all others who regularly share their wisdom.

ALOHA !!

Nonzero ... First I have to ask ... Do you work for the Chinese government? Either that or you're one of the heirs of Henry Ford!!!!

What is globalization? Globalization = Standardization

Wikipedia definition:
Globalization refers to increasing global connectivity, integration and interdependence in the economic, social, technological, cultural, political, and ecological spheres.

I do not dispute that globalization exists.

Globalization ... the mixing of cultures and economies via trade has been going on for centuries as far back as Rome and the Islamic Golden Age and the Silk Road ...

I can attest to the British and American globalization of Polynesia and especially the Sovereign Nation of Hawaii, was all done at gun point with what was called "gunboat diplomacy" back in those days!

The British did a fine job of globalizing for the King and the Kings banks. The US government globalized the Native Americans practically to extinction. Ever read about what happened to the Aboriginals of Australia? The British government offered bounties for each Aboriginal ear. Exactly what are we globalizing in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East now?

I have no problems with globalization under the context of trading something of value for something of equal value between two trading partners, but thats not what we have now. That can never exist as long as the global currency is purely fiat, because fiat has no long lasting store of value. The kind of globalization being forced upon this World's citizens is nothing more than a Global Monarchy where we peasants work for the King and the King's international banks that support the World Bank, the IMF and the BIS and most all of the global central banks. Multi-national corporations benefit greatly with the financial support of the international banks. Where is the equality? Where is the level playing field?

Globalization has been an ongoing process for many many centuries now and so far all I can see is the "rich get richer". Once in awhile you get a GOOGLE or a MICROSOFT but for the vast majority of the 6bil inhabitants of Earth you get physical and financial slavery to banks and governments and their militaries. Just another version of serfdom ...

Stop allowing governments to spend unlimited funds on ego military adventures and stop the money printing to pay for it and you might have something ... once you disconnect the banks from government that is! Why is it I cannot make loans and monetize my own personal debt? I have a scanner and a printer and I won't need to print as much as the US government needs to print! Why is it Goldman Sachs gets to print "legal tender" and I can't? Why is it Bank America gets to create $300k loans out of thin air and I can't?

Look ... if you asked people in different countries what is the one thing they would like to change about the World I believe most would say "Make the governments leave me alone so I can earn a fair living and provide for my family. All I want to do is pursue happiness as I see it and live in peace ..." In one form or another that would be the gist of the majority of answers.

To me there should be only two operating principles that every government on Earth should be bound to.
1) Do what you say you are going to do.
2) Do not interfere or trespass upon another country or its citizens or property.

The more times those two basic common laws are broken the more chaos prevails in the World. Globalization is a tool for the elite to gain control of the World ... the same as it was in the days of Caesar, King George, Napolean and Tzar Nicholas ...

There is nothing new under the sun and that includes globalization!

Bill,

Have you seen BHP in Rio dropping with RSI Daily under 70 while Weekly and Monthly are still above 70 ? Is the party over ?

Thanks.
Scotman

Hi Bill,

Thanks for putting the Junior stock valuation spreadsheet on your daily report the last couple of days. Any comments or suggestions from readers would be greatly appredciated.

I know it is not real pretty or sophisticated. But that is the point. It was meant to be a simple tool to act as a due diligence checklist as well as provide a reasonable valuation of the stock.

The idea was that then any one of the Cara Community could use the checklist and valuation to investigate any Junior mining stock they were interested in and report their findings to the readers. By doing this the Cara Community could hone in on the stocks that look as though they had the best potential and lowest risk.

Any red hot looking stocks could then be zeroed in on and verified by other readers. If readers came up with significantly different evaluations, then discussion could be held over where the differences occurred in the asssumptions etc and other readers could make their own judgement based on the discussion.

I think that this would be a great way for the Cara Community to share their knowledge in an objective fashion and come up with a great short list of high potential Junior mining stocks for the Cara Community to invest in or add to a Cara Mining Stock list.

This is a chance for some of you in the Cara Community to evaluate Kaimu's stocks such as ECU.TO PMV.V & CNU.V against my GIX.V and Moab's KDX.V

So it will only take say a dozen of us to evaluate one or two of our favorite stocks each and we should have a valuable list in no time.

An example is that I bought Firestone Ventures FV.V over a year ago at $0.42 because I thought it had great potential and I have some sentimental value in and have been holding ever since. Yesterday was a good day for FV.V and if I had a list of stocks and objective values for their potential price i could rank it against the others. I could decide to cash in my Buffet type profits now and move into something else that now has more potential or whether this stock still has good upside compared to other stocks.

To this end I will value 1 or 2 stocks over the next week and share my valuations with the cara Community. I hope there are some others out there who also take up the challenge.

Even stocks that don't value too well should still be shared, because it may save others a lot of work investigating it. These stocks could then still be put on a watch list in case they have any future developments.

Anyway Avagoodweekend

Kaimu:
I'm just an ordinary Chinese who have been worked/lived in USA for past 15 years. Knowing both of these two countries quite a bit, I just want to point out some of your comments on China are incorrect simply because you don't have enough facts about that huge country on the other side of the earth. But, Hey that's fine! Thanks to this internet thing, we can communicate with each other. Anybody, anywhere, any time. So many problems in human beings are because of luck of communication, most of the time we just don't have the means to communicate with each other due to physical, language, and cultural barriers. That causes misunderstanding, lack of trust, and many tragedies. Now, for the first time in history, internet may provide a chance for us to overcome many of these barriers. This is definitely a new thing under the sun no one can ignore.

Best Wishes