Good morning everyone. Have a plan for precious metals positions. You'll need it for the upcoming days.

The plan was to reduce positions into yesterday's strength and to slowly meter back in on weakness as we move into Friday's #'s.
Nibbled some GLD this AM aamof.

Positions held into last night's close have tightened stops.

I'm mainly in cash, at portfolio high.
Can't drop a house on me today....ruby slippers are in good shape, look stunning against the gold bricks.

Int'l markets look great, but I'm not a chaser now. I'll wait for it to come to me, I have time and cash.

GFI- pre-market bid almost 4% below close...

Hi Bill;

Just amazing.

And the media doesn't help of course. The "its a guaranteed winning lotto ticket" game is encouraged by the pump monkeys at CNBC and elsewhere.

Of course this will end in tears. It always does. We are simply arguing over the "when", not the "what" at this point.

I suspect the "when" will come soon. WalMart's move in cutting toy prices 50% this early for Christmas is an ominous sign. Those guys are sharp and if they detect softness in the consumer, its real. Count on it. Get same-store sales growth over Christmas at 1% or less and "shock and awe" will rule the land all right, and not in a way you'd like.

2nd,
Already there my friend!

How's the Karmic sentiment today BOS?

Almost all PM shares in my watch list are down this morning along with Gold. I think PM and Energy are due for a pullback from overbought conditions.

Bought DUG ans SDS yesterday.
Anyone know of any ETFs shorting the PM sector?

I'm gettin' out of GSS more or less at the open. This does feel like it could last a couple days.

Bill's stories of a reality check reminds me of a Malaysian broker at Merrill Lynch in the 2000 time period. A Chinese couple "dreamed" of buying 50k shares of a unix software company then known as Santa Cruz. He accommodated their request and the rest is history. This was their only position. I might say that I knew the broker; this is not something that I read in the news. Merrill loved this broker. He spoke Chinese and brought in a lot of business. An aside of this recollection is that the broker told me that none of his foreign clients paid capital gains tax and that Merrill didn't have to report transactions; no soc sec number involved.

2nd ave...
Buying opportunities ahead...but for me to sell of more miners I do thinks puts me at risk to miss the next move up. Looks very difficult to call a current top and the next bottom. Having said that I have stop losses in place...selling into weakness...ummm..not exactly the rhythm of Bill's philosophy. I looked at the charts this morning; could be a mr magoo but I see consolidation as likely as a major sell off, and almost none of the miners I'm holding are rolling over with broken weekly and daily rsi's. UXG is the exception.
Good luck on not.v. Personally, decided to stay away from trading canadian shares...became more awkward at fidelity than anticipated. I hold a very tiny position of ecu and gsl intended as a trial run.

Let's see, gold down 2% early this am - gee, I think we are going to see some weakness here...duh (not pointed at any comments from community members this am).

Sure gold is going to drop from overbought levels (as mentioned here in last few days), but no one HERE is going to get hurt because we all sold the shares into strength that we bought on prior weakness. Right?

Buy weakness, sell strength...

adding some NOT.V at 3.35...

go34...not on that train yet...my habits are more of the momentum buyer...in theory is get the meat of the up and give up some at the down... feel free to give me a deserved ribbing.

trailing losses triggered this morn on 3 of 7 positions.

At the risk of sounding like an ingrate, which truly I am not, can we lay off the CNBC bashing?

The reality is that we are stuck w/ it. You watch it, I watch it, we all watch it. It has no viable competition and intelligent people can separate the wheat from the chaff.

I would love to see the space devoted to the Denver Gold Show or the AUY merger or some other juicy news that only Cara can deliver.

Again, I don't want to sound like a whiney child, but that is what made this blog so special in first place, not the "anti" drumbeat that ocasionally gets tiresome. I worry that between the Bush Administration and CNBC you are going to give yourself a bleeding ulcer...they are not worth it!!

With love!

scaling into SLW at 13.39...

Little pullback on WGDFF too.

elvis, you wrote - "The reality is that we are stuck w/ it. You watch it, I watch it, we all watch it. It has no viable competition and intelligent people can separate the wheat from the chaff." This is not true., THe reality is, CNBC does have competition Bloomberg,and, soon, FoxFinancial. And not "all" of us watch CNBC. I watch Bloomberg almost exclusively. I do find CNBC useful in that, in watching it, one can then tell what everyone else is being forcefed in the name of "infotainment."

"I did have another company ready to replace Maxim in the Cara 100, but cannot remember which one. Too much on my plate and not enough time. I’ll get to it today."

Didn't you replace MXIM by Tesoro(TSO)

My physical reaction to CNBC is the same as Bill's. I don't watch anymore, I stick to Bloomberg. Keeps my blood pressure under control and my wife likes that I'm not yelling at the TV.

Not to pile on, elvis, but I avoid CNBC (except for Fast Money). I prefer Bloomberg.

As all have already noted, the miners are pulling back with gusto today. JogyP, I'm with you on DUG, but I get an "F" for my entry yesterday.

Bill and HugoB,

That's my recollection as well. I updated my watchlists with TSO to replace MXIM.

Also, I can't believe the nonsense getting spewed once again about "a bottom is in" for the home builders. I'm watching this bogus rally for another shorting opportunity.

An article on the New York Times mentions Brazil poised to overtake the United States as the world’s leading exporter of food products.

"Written off as useless for centuries, the cerrado region, a vast savannah that stretches for more than 1,000 miles across central Brazil, has been transformed into Brazil’s grain belt, thanks to the discovery that soils could be made fertile by dousing them with phosphorus and lime, whose optimum mixture was established by Embrapa scientists."

The technology is being exported as well.

http://tinyurl.com/2y4a79

Brazil has water,water,water...don't know if this was in the article but saw this some time ago.

It's another one of those days with no bottom in sight for the PM and PM miners.

g034... nah, I may be the only one, but I didn't get out just yet. I sold a few positions, but the majority I still have in play, which is rather annoying today! Then again, I haven't had the time to pay enough attention to the markets recently, so I guess this is the price I pay!

The Cerrado region is one of the country's best coffee growing regions.

Happy I sold my GFI yesterday... with a stop set above the asking price. Happy to limit my gains today.

What is the story with BMD though? That one whipped through my usual 10% stop loss so I'm holding. I think I'll do the Buffett buy-and-hold on that one for now...

The stock market is the only lottery ticket I know of where you can change your mind and get some of your money back.

i love BNN, but i basically check the updates on
www.stockchase.com for a summarry of all the analysts picks from Market Call's 2 daily shows.

30 year laptop battery available in 2-3 years?

http://tinyurl.com/2od9kt

I don't like watching any "financial noise". That's why I read Bill's Blog. This blog is off the chart superior to any financial TV. Anyway, yesterday I noticed that since Sept. 17th my portfolio was up over 20%. That seemed like too extreme of a melt-up in two weeks so I went 100% to cash. Now we'll see if I was premature. Either way I have the gain and the only thing screwing me now is the debasement of the dollar. Happy trading!!

Someone asked about a short gold ETF....perhaps the dollar up ETF (UUP) would work.

I'm looking at the hourly charts on the miners and, to a man, they are all looking like they want to test their 9/26 lows. I'd like to see them find support at this level as a good buying opportunity.

Fazeli,
Heck no, you're not the only one..but i do have stops, and 6 of 7 have triggered. WGDFF would not take a trailing stop..so I'm content to just have this one be a buy-hold. EZA is my last gold position with stops to hang on.

While the community favors buy low sell into strength, I still consider relative strength investing in etfs as a very viable way to make consistent gains. Gold and more speculative positions, though, I think are a much better fit for style as advocated here. Ultimately, if I keep managing, it's flexibility and consistency within each style that I want to exercise.

Craig,
UUP does not have enough volatility IMO. I am looking for something like DUG for the PM sector.

Jasper, Schwab has an alert feature that lets me enter an order when the price decreases or increases to a certain level. Others should, too. That's what I use for a stock like WGDFF. I also use Elder's "SafeZone" calculation to find my stops. FWIW.

If you want to short gold, you can also use the HGD in Toronto. This is a 200% inverse of the S&P TSX Global Gold Index. It's up about 6% today.

every sell-off in gold has been like this...at the point you stop wanting to buy, that's always been the time to buy...

Number2son,
Most of these programs trigger open orders and WGDFF only trades limit orders in the US pink sheets so far. That's a nice feature if Fidelity lets you trail or stop with a limit order. Most won't let you do it.

Is it issuing an alert and you're entering limit orders manually from that point?

I suspect we'll see selling the rest of the week in the PM miners. It always starts like this. The first day, everything is dropping like rocks, and you get 2-5% drops 4 or 5 days in a row, base for a few days, and then pick up again.

I'm trying to clear some positions now, even though I've lost about 5% of my gains, because I figure I can buy these stocks another 5%+ lower in a few days.

2nd_ave - I am in agreement with shark that it (gold selloff)could last a couple of days.

not sure i would be shorting either gold or the miners here...headlines are starting to pull retail investors into the sector again..

ST XAU chart is agreeing with the BOS.

BOS?

Usually, I agree, 10% sell off is the norm....but this one could be the exception....scaled back in with small positions
slw:13.2;gdx 43.64
early in the day, week.

fido will help with alerts but I would have to execute manually...head/heart back into conflict.

>

That's right, Craig. But nothing is foolproof. With thinly traded stocks in volatile trading the market can move quickly past the limit I set for the alert. That happened yesterday and the lesson to me was to give more space between the alert and the auto-entered limit order. In any case, more often than not this works pretty well for me, and I like the fact that I don't have stop orders sitting out there for MM's to shoot.

BOS: From the August archives..."All:
As I was watching "Fast Money" last night I heard Karen Finerman say LEND was the "BALLS OF STEEL" trade.

Our own 2nd Ave was the blog's Master of the LEND Balls of Steel trade Friday (along with his expert Sith guides) and in his honour I propose we address him with respect as the BOS of 2nd Ave. for a day or two. By then he'll be tired of it. Good job BOS!"

Ah yes, but if thinly traded and falling, better to get some sort of auto execute than none at all! Could save a lot of heartache one day.

Well if BOS is loaded up from today's low and there's a snap back then that's a lot of profit back to the treasury.

For me, patience would dictate that I stop buying..my replacement purchase represents 3% vs about 16% sold this morning. Bill seems to think a bigger sell off will eventually happen and seasonal chart supports such.

Bill, RE: Tesoro

Check your post from 9/26, 9:37 PM.

Guess I'm swimming upstream. Filled my McFauld's Lake bucket yesterday and today with modest amounts of NOT, FNC, BMK and FWR.

Jasper:
He posted "scaling into SLW at 13.39".
My bet is he bought down to the low and is up nicely at this moment for a few clams.

SLW- trust me, i really listen to you guys...out at 13.44..

only position still "trapped" in is CFC, but it's closing in on my basis today and i'll probably get out...

I'm personally debating selling my shares of XAU. I'm not aware of a threat to it, and from this I would think/hope that today's pull back is only a resting point. And a dead cat bounce for the USD.

I'm looking at the 1-5 day, and 1-5 week time horizon. Any thoughts?

Q.
Either at the bottom of a new range or if that breaks, then the usual pain for holding.

Put up charts that rep your trading horizon...might help?

Thanks Bill,
I couldn't have done it without learning from you. I just hope my next moves are as well timed. Those China stocks are tempting; CHA, CHL, JRJC, LFC, and CHNR. But I'm holding off for now. It's just too scary up there in the China melt-up.

Yesterday I closed out all of my gold-miners with the exception of
KRY. I kept KRY because I'm still under water about 30%. Last
wed. I sold parts of UXG, HL, KGC, & ECU. Yesterday with POG at
750 and my profits above 20% I sold the rest of SLW and WGDFF.
Never having 'over-the-counter' stocks, I was happy to see my limit orders taken quickly.

Also, over the past week I sold TXN, CSCO, & INTC. Now I'm 60% in cash with KFT, MO, PG, INTC, VGR, & KRY as my only stocks.

Now, I'm ready for the market come to me. My skills have increased due to this blog along with my portfolio. Bill, thank you for teaching instead of preaching.

QUESTION: I have tons of money in my schwab acct.- way over the FIDC limit. Never worried in the past, but with the financial
situation today- How does one keep the cash safe and nimble?

Thanks to anyone who answers my question.

Finger Lakes -

You must be eager to capture the BOS belt from 2nd Ave. I have a distinct gut feeling that these stocks will "correct" post-Y2K style, so unless you're an expert on catching bloody guillotine...

BTW, I keep hearing/reading about the "official" timeline for the Chinese market's boom & bust. "You're fine until the Olympics, expect some turbulences afterwards." With the parabolic, mania-feeling trading over the past couple of months, I am curious if anybody more astute and abreast of the Chinese market has a different view on the scenario from here. (My itchy ulcer seems convinced that hot money will not wait that long before bailing en masse.).

JML

My apologies Bill. I now believe I miss read your post. "Tesoro (TSO) is added to the S&P 500 and (Cara 100) Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) deleted, as of tonight." I construed that to mean that TSO was replacing MXIM in the Cara 100. Re-reading the post I see what your means was.

ETFC Oct 12 calls - Exited at 1.60 (+88%). STO(14,3) crossover on 10- & 15-minute charts earlier today; should've exited then, but unable to get a fill @ 1.75.

JML,
I agree that when the Chinese stocks do fall it will be quick and unexpected. Like tomorrow maybe? I got burned by Netease a few years ago by chasing it when it was shooting up. And hopefully my knowledge will overcome my greed this time, proving that anyone can learn from their mistakes as long as you pay attention and are honest with yourself. They do look mighty tempting though.

Jasper, I'm looking at the 1 month chart on the XAU and as of right now it looks like a very narrow trading range with 2 higher highs, and a possible higher low. The longer range I have no clue about....

China - FXI, PGJ, RSI's 7,14,21 all over 70 = nosebleed. That's all I need to know.

"Let the market come to you".

It's about risk/reward.

"China - FXI, PGJ, RSI's 7,14,21 all over 70 = nosebleed. That's all I need to know."

For both daily AND weekly...

Thoughts for the day from Jesse Livermore:

"What happened shows you that I am right in never trading at limits. Suppose I had limited my selling price to 300? I'd never have got it off. No, sir! When you want to get out, get out."

"Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don't make a second unless the first shows you a profit. Wait and watch. That is where your tape reading comes into enable you to decide as to the proper time for beginning. Much depends upon beginning at exactly the right time."

Not sure if anyone follows AKAM. I bought into this one for the first timeover the last few days as I thought end of quarter selling would make for a nice price dislocation. It appears to be breaking out on pretty high volume.

With the double top we've had in pm/rs, it's kind of a second chance to raise cash. And Bill does remind me how easy easy it is to sell into strength with his rsi system...easy to get a bid without getting trampled by the crowd. It's a gift to the little guy.
GDX could easily retreat to 5oma...12% points away..or the 20mda...or did it touch intraday there already?

Jumble:

Jim Rogers opined on Bloomberg a week or so ago that he envisioned leaving his Chinese shares for his children but the recent mania may seem him selling in the next few months. Also Marc Faber opined today the following yesterday:

"There is no doubt that we are dealing with bubbles in China and in India.
Can these bubbles be inflated by another 100%? Possibly, if Taiwan and
Japan in the 1980s serve as a model! However, risks are high (as they are
for the NASDAQ 100) and once these markets tumble (and they will) the shaky global financial system will be tested one more time".

Rogers and Faber are pretty decent voices to listen to eh?

AKAM certifiably off to the races. A lot of the dogs I bought at quarter end have started hunting today. Looks like the bifurcation of sectors that occured at the end of September may be wearing off. I.E. The things that were marked up for quarter buy fundies are being marked back down - perhaps a contributing factor of the weakness in gold today.

BillySundance - Thanks for your note on AKAM, I took a short ride on the AKAM train.

Jogy - glad that my mention worked for you. I also enjoy hearing what other readers have their eyes on - more power in numbers! The AKAM train is continuing to accelerate as I speak.

Any thoughts on why the DJIA is down and the Russel 2000 is up? Thanks.

SiO2 -

$RUT was (and IMO remains) the favored vehicle to short in an environment where economic activity slows and credit contracts. Just like BillySundance pointed out for AKAM, a whole lot of stocks (with problems) probably got marked down to prop up the value of short positions at quarter close.

Q. Are those net shorts continuing to leave the market or quant funds resuming deleveraging after a Sep. hiatus?

JML

Along with etf sectors I may add a stock within that sector. RVBD is a small cap peer in telecom tech.
Last week acquired.(Source: a list of risk averse set ups...Jack Steinman) RVBD gets more than 35% of its revenue from global customers. Made a move today.

Gold to pull back to $700-$710. Hoping so as I will be adding to my PM miners at that time with GDX as well as GLD. Additionally I remain long UNG and looking to the $44-$46 area as the next stop in the train ride.
Best to you.

Hi,

Well, maybe I am wrong, but I have started adding some QID.

Cheers,

A

Bill...I have to call you out a bit - you said in reply to my initial comment "who other than you even mentioned CNBC today" or words to that effect...well YOU did:

"

I ask these questions because it was only seven years ago that I watched TV Talking Heads, one after another, pump GE to 60, on ridiculous metrics, only to soon plunge to 20. Yes, that General Electric, the solid ground beneath the birds at CNBC. Like granite until the market went poof.

The audience at CNBC – not the Federal Reserve Bank of New York -- should get to vote as to who can return as guests on these shows. I guess by now you know that GE’s Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt is a Director of the New York Fed, who gets to vote on who runs the FOMC trading desk under Prof. Bernanke. Immelt felt that the Goldman Sachs former chief economist would fit in fine in such a position. Would he hire the man for a job at GE? Not likely; but to run the Fed trading desk, why not!"

The above is taken from your daily report, for which there is no discourse section, so I posted my comment to this heading instead.

I'm not trying to poke the dragon here, but for a bunch of folks who don't claim to watch CNBC, you all sure know what's going on w/ it. I detect some hypocrisy with all the "I watch Bloomberg" comments. I have Bloomberg, too and I FIND IT INSUFFERABLY BORING, to be quite honest. I don't really care what Rupert Murdoch does with his future CNBC competition - like it or not CNBC is here to stay and will remain top dog for the forseeable future.

Please do not pretend that you are all such experts and high-brow insiders that you leave CNBC to the plebians.

My simple point was the constant demoninzing of CNBC on this forum is a distraction and a waste. I would much rather you bash a true shill like the Motley Fools, who (at least to me) appear almost shameless in their pumping and dumping at times.

Peace to all and good health. I'm sure I'll be sorry I posted this...

elvispoc -

Bloomberg is too boring? Are you looking for entertainment or real financial news?

We deride CNBC here because it is a cheerleader that disseminates Wall Street's sell side propaganda, often to their great financial peril. And people need to know that so they can at least recognize the spin and make a more informed judgment.

You also apparently think this site should cater to your tastes. Telling Bill what subjects he should drop on his own blog is downright rude, however nicely you say it.

elvispoc -

I agree with you that Bloomberg's dullness (even after their redesign) doesn't pose any threat to CNBC's dominance.

You implicitly assume that CNBC will outlive its marketing purpose beyond the GE years. Yes, they are a sell-side service bringing Wall Street to the general public. Yes, they are engaged into a race for audience (or at least pertinent viewership) so they must use all available TV recipes to draw audiences: a bull market with overhyped record breaking and short demonization sells better than an uncertain bear market. What I resent is the pretense of journalistic integrity that envelops most of their "reporting". I resent it because it defeats what could be a great window for individual self-sufficient investment and corrupts (smaller sized) retail participation in investing at a time when a multi-platform approach could benefit Wall & Main Street alike.

My guess for a while has been that GE will dump NBC properties post Beijing when access to the U.S. audience for foreigners (to wit, today's special by Money Honey with Qatar's sovereign fund manager) and pro-China promotion will no longer advance GE's other business forays with the same efficiency. So would a great anchor be lifted from GE's portfolio of businesses and warrant renewed attention.

Unwittingly, Murdoch's acquisition of Dow Jones could force to a rapprochement between CNBC & Financial Times. FT may bring a breath of fresh perspective with more in-depth investigative work and international/worldwide market perspective.

So I watch in the end with the sound down to get the ancillary information and anything that breaks the midday boredom and the post-close relaxation.

Is it a waste to call them out for the errant ways? Probably most of time. But it is hard to let myth-building be passed as an investigative finding. Intellectual honesty is a hard mistress.

JML

Kudos to all the rock star traders who claim to have unloaded their gold positions at the absolute peak yesterday. It must be nice to hit all the tops and bottoms all of the time. I should say that i find it a little odd that you only hear of these winning trades after they are well in the money.

SH- congrats on selling into two very strong days for the gold sector...if i had your kind of patience it would be quite an asset...

as for your question re FIDC insurance, i believe it is actually SIPC insurance that would apply to a schwab account, which would insure up to 500,000 combined securities and cash, but only up to 100,000 of the cash in the "port..." what we've done is spread our accounts over a few brokerages...originally this was to ensure access to at least one trading account if another had technical problems, but in the current environment, i suppose there are insurance issues as well...

make that "FDIC..."
btw, you have the option of purchasing add'l SIPC insurance..

A great read. Just to entice you:

The human brain is not good at processing large amounts of contradictory information. It needs a "story", a conceptual framework in which to place the torrent of confusing data to which it is constantly exposed. The world may not be black and white, but we need to pretend it is to understand it.

That is why a journalist's job is to exaggerate and simplify, to tell a complex tale in a simple way, good news or bad. It is frustrating to a reader who is familiar with the underlying nuances, but it fulfils a deep human need for clarity.

http://tinyurl.com/2f9rko

I did not think that BNN was boring at all, it's the channel I watch 95% of the time (it's like my yahoo portal of the TV world). And, elvispoc, my cable line-up does not even carry cnbc, but I see nothing wrong with bashing it. JC makes for very amusing and lively conversations (you can watch his videos on on the Internet).

Excellent piece by Maudin today, by Bill Gross "What do they know"? (Bernanke and Hanson). Again, like the FN video from yesterday, comments on the topic of the global economy holding things together, but what is Bernanke to do in that case.

"Know nothing? Perhaps they now know more than I or Jim Cramer gave them credit for on that raucous day in August. If they do, however, their options are limited by Republican political orthodoxy, the receding willingness of the private sector to extend credit, and a still exuberant global economy. What do they know? I suspect at the very least they know they're in a pickle, and a sour one at that".

I said it before, JC is one powerful man :-)

Maybe that explains my disdain for CNBC, or at least for the most political of the talkin' noggins. Liz and David Faber are excellent, no axe to grind, just good journalism. Erin is allright, but is a human and occassionally takes a side. I'm afraid I part company with Bill on Missy Francis. She was a good kid on Little House on the Prairie, but I guess money, priviledge, Michael Landon and Larry Kudlow can have a bad influence on a person to the point they sound like a tightfisted grinch. Not everyone is born as able and with the opportunities afforded Ms. Francis. Same for Larry K. Most of the others are fair enough.

I just want information. I'll decide what I think of it thereafter.

Link to the Bill Gross comment: http://investorsinsight.com/otb_print.aspx

2nd ave:

SIPC insurance, in my understanding, would not cover a money market fund from going under. SIPC insurance would come into play if Schwab itself went under but not an investment like a money market fund. Realize that money markets by prospectus state that they strive to maintain a $1 NAV but no assurances can be given they will. A money market is no different than a mutual fund. In some cases it may not even be the brokeage houses proprietary fund. A lot of thenm use the Reserve Portfolios, a different company.

In addition, most brokerage houses have automatic coverage above the 500k SPIC limits though it gets sketchy on what types of things they cover. National Financial Services, Fidelity's parent co. for instance covers 100% of everything above FDIC limits. At tleast this is my understanding of reading the SAI as such don't take my word for any of this.

Hoefully I understood the original concern properly.

Dangnabbit, I meant NFS (Fidelity's parent) covers 100% above SIPC, not FDIC.

Aboot CNBC.

Just turn on the channel at around 10:45. You'll have a guest from the floor or some connected person with basic information. After 11:15 switch it off.

Hi Bill,

Have you run across Silverstone Resources [TSX.V:SST]?
They appear to be an early stage, mini-me version of SLW - similar sort of silver royalty revenue model.
Any opinions of the 'jockeys'?

thx, Dave

"Aboot CNBC."

FranSix, so you're a Canadian, too!

Brendan - there are no rock star traders here.

I made two gold sales, yesterday and about 5 trading days ago. Selling into strength doesn't mean perfection, it means freeing up cash for future purchases into weakness. I never trade my core position - I'll sell that gold in the four figures.

Now looking for certain mining shares to hit fib levels/various supports. Will use new cash for those purchases. If they rally from here on out, oh well, never force a trade, plenty of chances later.

Rock on brothers!

Hi everyone, this is a great blog. My CAD$0.02 on some of today's topics:

CNBC - lost this channel after my local cable co moved it to a more expensive subs pkg. I miss the *entertainment* of Mad Money.

That said, it's still good to hear about CNBC in this blog every once in a while to help those of us that don't have / have tuned out of CNBC to gauge herd sentiment. I remember Bob Pisani talking about the "New Economy" back in early 2000 (not meant as a personal jab at him; many others, myself included, had already bought into that story too).

Bloomberg - I don't understand why some people find it stale, but to each his own. Personally, I've found them to interview some of the most intelligent people that disect the mkt from different angles you would never find from CNBC.

BNN - agree. hands down my pick if I had to choose only one.

Safe brokerage acct - have a look at jsmineset.com today. Jim Sinclair has something to say about this though no clear-cut surefire solution.

Gold - watching how HUI reacts at 360-380 area. Double top? Can't rule anything out, but the wkly looks to me much more like a 1-1/2 yr long "square cup" (frying pan?) consolidation that just ended, rather than a V bounce into a dbl top. A backtest of the bkout is always welcome in my trading style. I knew PM's were OB going into Oct, so have a relatively small position that I can live with if this is just a p/b. Needed to have some expo in case of a parabolic move.

Speaking of which - FXI - Jeff Cooper talks about this at minyanville. He posits a potential top this wk based on fibonacci #'s. Not a perfect system at all by any means, but uncanny how key events sometimes line up with mathematical beauty. (Disclosure: long some FXI, so am watching closely.)

Overall, I expect stk mkt tops to be globally correlated as has happened of late.
In my last post to this blog back in Mar/Apr, I worried about the impact of Yen carry unwind on PM's and feared an '87 style crash. Was watching a break of the $XJY downtrend back then. With that out of the way, there remains some concern about what happens if global mkts pull back soon based on credit crunch "news" or just on their own weight like perhaps FXI. But with so much liquidity (global financial warming), the loss in one mkt just seems to lead to a gain elsewhere. My guess is that after the next shakeout, we'll see a nice move in gold, tech and soft commods.

btw, was mostly cash going into Jul-Aug crisis, but have scaled in slowly since then (not having BOS to go all-in last Aug). Didn't want to go sht b/c of underlying bid from PE take-outs back then. Trailing stops took me out of my holdings (especially uraniums) one by one before the real carnage hit midsummer. And more recently, UXG was taken out last week. The point I want to share here is that having and obeying stops can stem your losses and help you deal with uncertainties that will always be with us.

From all my financial cuts and bruises, one key lesson is never to turn trades into long-term investments and vice versa.

What I have learned from this blog is that you have to treat your investments as a business. Don't fall in love with your stocks and don't get emotional. The gold/silver stocks I held went up individually 25%, 39%, 40%, 24%, and 34% from the mid-august cyclone. That is why I stated on Friday: "Time to take something off the table:". The goal in my trading plan is to make 12% a year, follow trends and stick to a trading plan. There is no penalty to take the profit and call it a day. Selling is not an indication that one does not like a stock. And if one is wrong then step up and buy back. It's a folly to think that you can buy at the low and sell at the top. Even with 50% cash these gains put the portfolio well ahead of the plan. Keeping a trading journal also helps to confirm how we trade.

Day by day BC keeps me focused on my plan. I am pleased with the progress I have made over the last year and a half as my accounts keep going up and up. Although I am not here to agree with everything Bill writes, I am here to learn. For every trade there is a seller and a buyer each with their own reasons for the trade (and I am sure those reasons are far apart). That is what makes a market and that is what makes a blog. We can agree to disagree.

There has been enough info in this blog to make one do more research and to think. When the indicators that I follow [MACD, Bollinger and Stochastics] indicated a overbought market and gold in particular I looked at RSI. Something that I did not do before (consider the value of RSI in trading). Then I considered the risk/reward of these positons. I did not listen to the talking heads or head over to stockchase.com (although this is a primary research tool for me) to make a decision. I determined that I have to make the decision. I had a sell button close buy and I used it. Yes, the market could go up and it could go down and it could just go nowhere. But there a value in holding cash in this market (something I learned here) and the ability to reset and refresh the mind by not being in the market feels good. I am more concerned about what I do have than what I don't. We are not in a war or battle with the market. We accept our mistakes and move on (something I previously found hard to do). I haven't given up on KRY although I sometimes wonder. One analyst following this stock has indicated it is worth north of $10.00. It is a puzzle.

What is valuable in this blog is that we can go back and look at the comments of every trading day and judge for ourselves how people view the market. My comments were limited here in September because I did not find a lot of commentary about trading style or how we make decisions on Canadian stocks. (I have been here for a year and half now, so I am well aware of the methods of trading presented here). I hope we can have the plan for regional sections to this blog implemented here or on BillCara3.com.

As for financial TV, I don't watch it. Watching prices (another thing I learned here: took a while to understand what Bill was talking about - trading prices) and trends makes more sense. The last thing I want is to doubt my beliefs.

The Cambridge Gold show looks good and I will be there on Sunday October 21. Bill has twigged my interest and this will be part of my education. I also plan to attend the Etrade Technical Analysis Summit to be held in Toronto this November at the same location to continue my education. The speaker line-up will make it worth my while.

Today's Community Chat has been a fun read. Yes, "Rock on brothers! (and sisters!)"[016]

ALOHA !!

Bill ... Since it seems I can never make these "gold conferences" I think I will have to start my own "Hawaii Precious Metals Base Metals and Geopolitical Conference" ... I mean here on the Big Island you can actually see first hand how exactly geological formations got started! The "Hawaii Volcanoes National Park" is the TOP single tourist destination in the State! I know of nowhere on Earth you can witness brand new land being created in relative safety. I am always in awe when I go there. It surely puts us little humans in our place. Our miniscule endevours pale in comparison with that of Pele and this Earth we constantly take for granted every waking minute! This World is just a spectacular place ...

I have to say there have been many times when I just cannot take the insanity of the markets and the idiots running this country along with their media circus. Many times I have to leave my computer and walk outside just to escape the madness ... Once I get outside I am just instantly rejuvinated and all my vital signs recover in an instant! I tend to stay outside a lot lately!

It's a crazy world we live in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rw2nkoGLhrE

Bill & all - thanks for all your comments on the universally derided CNBC I started.

As Moab said, far be it for me to even venture a critcism on a free blog that is wonderful, useful and a labor of love by the blogger. Please go right on posting what you feel. I will be here every day reading it!! I hate posting negative stuff because I just think it's not terribly productive, which is why I got temporarily bold enough to post the CNBC anti-bashing plea in the first place.

Bill, you are truly a gentleman and a scholar, you are a free thinker and you don't let your emotions hamper you from weighing comments, investments and people carefully and fairly. It is why I deeply appreciate the work you do here.

Thank you so much.

Kaimu,
That's another retirement suggestion.....buy rural land where you can observe and learn from nature. I take walks all the time to decompress.
No palms here but we get the "pineapple express" (jet stream from Hawaaii) and grow the largest on earth of several species of trees in the Olympic mountains, a temperate rain forest. You can see new RE being formed here at Mt. St. Helens, although perhaps a bit different than Hawaii, the Cascades range forming more explosively. Safe enough to watch for now....