Creepy.
Welcome back!

Dear Bill,

I trust Paulson....He looks like an honest guy to me.

hehehehehehe
(equal opportunity detester)

I wouldn't mind true market determined currencies without all the backroom deals. If we could get to true market determined currencies, then the markets would be more transparent and honest. With Paulson's doublepspeak though I know he'll never lead us there. Look at how he says he wants a strong dollar and favors the currency being controlled by the market but then look at what he does when he prints money at a rate of 13% over GDP. How does that support a strong dollar? Then he has the plunge protection team step in and buy equities, treasuries, or the currency; whichever one needs support most from crashing that week. How does that help the currency be controlled by market forces? Unless he's really saying that he controls the market so he controls the dollar. People would understand that kind of honesty much more easily than his doublespeak. And then how about the superfund he proposes to buy all the worthless paper his buddies hold? Does he already know who will buy the shares of the superfund? Maybe he'll use the Social Security surplus to buy the shares. Or maybe just print more money while the plunge protection team buys the excess treasuries that no one wants. That would go along with his vision of "free markets and market controlled currency".
I think we desperately need the currency to be market based so it can crash down into the 40's where it should be based on our debt and spending levels. Then the politicians would be forced to spend more responsibly and pay off the debt restoring us to solvency an to being the true reserve currency once again.
I would also go along with your plan of having countries agree on currency rates only if the US gets a low rate until we fix our debt and spending problems.

2nd, FWIW I'm liking the QID here. I don't think AMZN will be APPL redux, particularly given the weak CSC-UBS Store Sales numbers (which may be what has shifted the momentum mildly today).

That said, I have tight stops.

Very creepy, I wonder if plans for the Amero enter your long term investment planning? Every time I see them making comments I can't help but think it is part of an overall plan to move to the Amero. It seems to be discussed so openly, is the real estate bubble part of that plan, will HB&B wash their hands clean by blaming other countries for dumping dollars in the market forcing their hand to unite North America? Already the Canadian dollar is at or above parity with the US. Should we be looking to Mexico as an investment play as that will need to strengthen for their overall plans. Here is just one example from 2006 where it is being discussed. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hiPrsc9g98

The market seems so tepid given all the tech hype, perhaps allowing HB&B to exit positions in an "orderly" manner. There appeared to be a fair amount of money outflow yesterday in APPL,GOOG and others in the QQQQ Top Ten (50%) of the index.

FED TOMO addition of $8.5 BIL 2-day Repos this AM combined with previous $19 BIL of 7-day Repos last Thurs means that $27.5 Bil comes due from HB&B(or needs to be replaced this Thurs. Any opinions on the above effect on market action tomorrow?

I too intend to hold on to QID position subject to impact of any exogenous factors; meantime rolling protective calls on QQQQ gap ups when(if) 25%+ gain.

Craig, October 23, 2007 11:10 AM

"QID div 2.20244 paid 12/25/07"

This sounds great but I can't seemed to find those numbers on the proshares site, where did you get them.

thanks

re QID dividends- hate to say it, but since the fund is short, i believe the dividend numbers refer to money that you are paying out, not receiving...;)

Steve "$35 oil by Christmas" Forbes was just on BubbleVision, screaming "no recession".

Gee, that makes me feel better. :^)

2nd,

Nope. The dividends are paid to the QID holders. I've received them.

Bull Hunter, do you know what exactly does the QID hold that pays dividends?

re QID dividends - does that mean that QLD would have similar div?

re currencies - once upon a time we had a gold standard. If a country spent more abroad than it sold, its money supply fell, economic activity slowed, spending fell until it matched sales. All automatic, no HBB, no government agreements, so simple.

re currencies - once upon a time we had a gold standard. If a country spent more abroad than it sold, its money supply fell, economic activity slowed, spending fell until it matched sales. All automatic, no HBB, no government agreements, so simple.

oooops, sorry for double post- got a server error on first attempt

oooops, sorry for double post- got a server error on first attempt

"From what I heard, Paulson believes that the Humungous Bank & Broker Club ought to hold the strategic control of economic power amongst nations. He flat-out stated that market determination of govt policy was a better solution than politically determined policies."

..................the foregoing is an almost-perfect definition of the deceptive word, "neo-liberalism".

2nd,

LOL good one.

Agree if you shorted the QLD (the QQQ long fund) you would have to pay the div to the person you borrowed the shares from. But in this case we are long an inverse (short) fund so we get to keep em.

But it is a point to remember when many people are thinking of going short, be careful of divs or special distributions you might have to pay, just another risk on the short side.

SiO2,

I don't know what kind of "Voodoo Economics" that ProShares uses that allows them to pay such high dividends on QID. Maybe someone in here can explain it?

Everytime I've held QID on the record date, I've received a splendid divy.

Quasi. thanks for clearig that up for me about the divident not having to be paid if you own QID shares.

The currency markets are too large and too deep to be controlled by any one market player even THE goldman sachs or the US treasury. If you look back to major changes in the currency situation a la the Plaza Accord back in 1985 - it still took a tacit agreement between the G-7 countries at the time to let the dollar depreciate relative to the others.

If a certain currency is being mispriced - at least with the market mechanism speculative capital can enter to accelerate the eventual endgame. I dont trust the world's governments to come up with "fair" exchange rates anymore than I do Paulson or THE goldman sachs.

-Soulek1

QID: The div figures I get come from a quote screen from Scottrade. Elite just gives me the annual dividend and the next pay date. So the annual div is 2.2044 and the next Q payout is Dec 25, 2007. Merry Xmas!

Shark is running Scottrader, if he runs a quote screen it will include the annual div percentage based on the current price. I wish elite did that as it's a nice feature.

2nd,
Thanks for the heads up this AM IE: DUG.
I owe you another one.

FROM Nuveen's ETF Connect:

QID - ProShares Ultra Short QQQ
Dividend History Since Inception*

Payable Date Ex Date Dividend Income
9/28/2007 9/25/2007 0.5506
7/2/2007 6/26/2007 0.4159
4/2/2007 3/27/2007 0.342
12/27/2006 12/20/2006 0.5666

*This page shows both historical and future dividends as reported by fund sponsors to our data provider, Thomson Financial.

Big move today in Altairnanotech (ALTI).

This is a fascinating little company that traders should become familiar with, if they aren't already.

shark,
way to go on the GSX. I passed in order to buy BMD. After it was mentioned here (and slammed) on Sunday I started researching. The conmpany was clearly overly-beaten down. It's an Athabasca infrastructure play, it's being shopped around and large blocks are being acquired, supposedly by a large asian country (ahem.)

All that aside, which may or may not be true, on a strictly price basis, I'm up about 5% since yesterday and keeping a very close eye on it.

Yeah Mike it was a pretty good morning. I failed to mention this earlier but I sold KRY first when it was failing, a few cents above here. I am NOT a LT investor in KRY so I had to sell, no point losing money on a stock you don't trust as far as you can throw it.

GSX was awesome, IVAN did its job too, so I am not a complainer. Anyone have any good trade ideas?

Re Paulson's talk

Paulson and HB&B sure want the playing field even more tilted to their favor but I don't think that the Russians and the Chinese would agree to handle over their keys easily. It's this coming conflict that underlies the shape of things to come in my opinion. And the losers stand to be the individuals everywhere - especially the 'haves' (for now).

"Anyone have any good trade ideas?

Sharky,

ALTI up another 5% in the last 10 minutes.

Somethings up.

I need a mentor, because I want to get into Wall Street. Will you be mine?

What are the different companies to get in with in Wall Street?

I recall a discussion on this board a few weeks ago in regards to the global economies reliance on the american consumer. Turns out Roach did an extensive analysis on just this issue and he figures there's still a strong dependency. An interesting read (linked through mauldin's site since the morgan stanley link was broken):

http://tinyurl.com/22zclq

ALTI: Looks like good technology, but the run up appears to be related to positive press. (COM and CXP stories, not Dow Jones). Maybe it comes back some.....

abazieu, please don't clutter the board with nonsense.

I'd buy it all day at 4.25

The realization that the fall-out of the sub-prime situation could have much more dire consequences than originally expected triggered the 367-point decline in the Dow on Friday, representing the 12th largest points decline on record.

In my assessment the technical picture is not looking good and the situation at the coalface of the US economy is not looking any better. I would not be surprised to see corporate earnings numbers increasingly undershooting expectations over the next few quarters. I also have difficulty seeing PE multiples expanding off valuation levels not exactly screaming "buy”. This all point to lower index levels.

The link for the full article is:

http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/22/where-to-now-mr-dow/

Craig,

Their technology is fascinating. They are partnered with quite a few others including AES, Sherwin Williams and Phoenix Motorcars.

I wouldn't be adding at these levels either, but this is one to keep on your radar.

Rumors persist regarding a buyout of their battery technology by a major automaker. Probably not true.

ALTI is a highly volatile stock that can be picked up on the cheap from time-to-time. I've been in and out of it many times. This is not a stock that I'd mind being stuck with should that occur.

BH- re the QID dividends: you just made my day, man...don't understand the "source" of the dividends, though > it would seem that QQQQ holders would be entitled to quarterly dividends, and if we're short the QQQQ, then we "lose" the dividends?

2nd,

Doesn't make sense to me either but trust me, you do receive nice dividends as a QID holder.

Good luck.

2nd, Hunter
A quick search of the QID prospectus here
http://www.proshares.com/funds/qid/2674376.html
states:

The Fund’s principal investment strategies include:
• Taking positions in financial instruments (including derivatives) that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as twice (200%) the inverse performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. The Fund will not sell short the individual equity securities of issuers contained in the NASDAQ-100 Index. Information about the Index can be found on page 12.
• Employing leveraged investment techniques in
seeking its investment objective.
• Investing assets not invested in financial instruments, in debt instruments and/or money market instruments.

The last statement may be the source of the dividends earned by QID... The first point says they do not short individual ND100 stock, therefore no dividend due.

I think the Ultra short funds use futures and other 'financial instruments' to generate the 2x percentage return.

Bill,
Do you have anything to share with us about EMR?
Sold GIX today at $2.50(20% return for the week!)So I can buy more UXG. Excuse my excitement but it is the first time I have taken profits so early on. Usually I sit there and watch them go up and down. Cheers

BH- never mind, i see Quasi answered my question ;)

Bill,

I may have missed earlier posts but it comes as no surprise, and fits well with your hypothesis re the over-influence of HB&B on economic decision-making by nation states, that Mark Carney, age 41, should be appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada. His CV indicates 1 year as Deputy Governor 2003-2004, and 13 years gainful employment with Goldman Sachs, culminating in 2003 as head of investment banking Canadian operations - at which time he was parachuted into the civil service . In my mind, there is no doubt who Mr Carney answers to and it isn't the people of Canada. HB@B stewardship has resulted in inadequate regulation of markets, the rise of private equity to the detriment of free markets, and the credit crisis we now are witnessing. I expect nothing good to come from Mark Carney and the Bank of Canada, or other jurisdictions who have had their wells poisoned by GS and their ilk.

Bill,

I couldn't agree with you more, but what can we as individual investors do about it?

I vote for candidates that best represent my financial philosophy but they never win....never even come close.

ALOHA !!

Bill ... flat out none of this is Constitutional. We are now at the stage of our Empire where only "We The People" can change the course. It should be very clear to most voters who have continually voted the two party system into power that both parties have failed.

In my mind only one politician in Washington DC has confronted the US Federal Reserve head on like a true PATRIOT and that is RON PAUL! I have read transcripts of House Banking Commitee meetings where he has grilled Greenspan to the ninth degree and now he grills Bernanke in the same fashion. Part of RON PAUL's strategy is to eliminate the Federal Reserve Bank and essentially create a separation of BANK and STATE much like a separation of CHURCH and STATE. That is the only way to retore some level of honesty to government and to our monetary system.

Look clearly the US government under the direction of Bush with the complicity of the Dems are planning to move to a Euro-like currency like an Amero. That will not matter. Its like trading one deck of marked cards for a new one. The Euro is a failure yet to be announced. All these monetary zone changes do is buy more time. The reality is that "fiat" does not work no matter how pretty the paper looks or what name you give it. Fiat will never work because human nature will not allow it. The nature of POWER and the terror of egos always corrupts money.

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

2nd,
Thinking ahead to All Fed Hallows Eve, if they cut, oil will get a boost as will PM's. So I think we have maybe a week of falling oil before it gets a temporary stop.

The other major issue has to be Turkey/Iraq.
What might the market do if we get more war?
That will change the plan with oil too.

Re. QID's 'other financial instruments" Is that ABCP? SIV? CDO? HTGAB? ;-) We know what happened with vehicles investing in 'other financial instruments'.

Anyone have an opinion on GCT, down here around $7.00?

I missed this story from a week ago:

http://tinyurl.com/2dygc5

Apple fired 800 employees who got free iPhones and then cashed the $100 rebate that iPhone purchasers got.

Nothing in any of the articles about Jobs stealing untold millions via back-dated options.

Peons - steal $100 and get fired.

Honcho - steal tens or hundreds of millions - no problem!

Message: steal big or stay home.

Anyone has any idea why AMZN seems on a rampage today while all my retail screens point to multi-year breakdowns everywhere? It busted out of the bearish reversal pattern from Oct. 11 and on its way to $100 BEFORE earnings.

I was convinced yesterday that AAPL's results could not disappoint. Today's action almost smells like a defiant action from momentum players (who cares what the results are since we're already so overvalued) or early leak of the press release.

JML

Message: steal big or stay home

ha ha ha ha ha !

Jumble,

With good prices, free shipping and higher fuel prices, I've noticed quite a few shoppers turning to AMZN for their purchases. I buy a lot from them myself.

Agreed, they're overvalued but I expect them to knock it out of the park tonight.

Anyone buying AMZN puts before earnings?

Geologix is running wild, up 25%. Investors must have liked what they heard at the conference. Hopefully there will be another buying opportunity.

Bull Hunter -

What exactly would constitute knock it out of the park? Beating from YoY low base or against clueless analysts (who consistently are reactive to the speculation in this stock)?

Sorry, but in a year they will likely have quadrupled their value (and are closing in on TGT's market cap.). So I kind of expect them to crush whatever comparison they are up against. Despite all the bullish explanations, I can't wrap my head around attributing such a high P/E to a low margin retail business (however enhanced it may be by order fulfillment services).

JML

"Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you King".
Bob Dylan

re: QID dividends

I believe these instruments use derivatives to get the 2X leverage and hold treasuries as collateral for the derivatives. Thus the dividends would come from this collateral (treasuries).

Jumble,

I think the whole earnings scenerio is manipulated by HB&B and their analysts.

I wouldn't buy a high P/E stock like AMZN but the lemmings led by the HB&B surely will should earnings results come in better than expected.

I'm not a momentum player, preferring the investment philosophy of Bill Cara to that of Bill O'Neil. :^)

Dear Bill,

Thank you for creating such an educational and intelligent blog. Last December, I stumbled across it
and am forever grateful. The last twelve months have been life altering for me in money management. The catalyst was primarily your
commentary and that of all the community members.

After spending twenty years managing my investments with such carelessness and ignorance, I am beginning to see clearly now.
Oh the tales I could tell; exposing my investing soul would be pure catharsis.
Your message of a game plan, a trading and investing methodology with discipline, has opened my eyes.
Thank you all.

I hope to add constructively to the group and will always be a student of the markets.

All the best,

kp84

JogyP, AMZN has made a lot of Call holders very rich the last two earnings. Current straddle requires a 14.5% move to make money, too high for me, although last quarters it went far more than this. Premiums are too high, I may go for some cheap calls and puts.

C95 $6.85 1 $108.60 14.51%
P95 $6.75 1 $81.40 -14.17%

Iron Condor/Butterfly requires a move of about 7%.

I went long a tiny amount of U.S. Gold as a position trade. Obviously this would be a turnaround story, it's not at all my usual type of trade but I think maybe it's going to be good.

Jeremy Grantham's latest qtrly newsletter is out. In short is calling for a delay in the start of a bear market barring an "accident". This is much different than previous calls that have had him calling for the US bear since early 2005. In summary here are some quotes:

from GMO.com.

"In the meantime I believe global equity markets will struggle to resist going down. Animal spirits have had years of reinforcement from great fundamentals and a friendly Fed,
and will not readily abandon ship even though the tide of positive fundamentals has clearly turned and is slowly ebbing: global GDP and the U.S. GDP are both slowing, U.S. profi t margins are forecast to decline, and inflation is threatening more". "Any major bearish behavior is likely to wait for another 12 or 18 months, but accidents do happen, and it should be remembered that the value of the U.S. market
based on a normal P/E of normal profit margins is over one-third lower than today’s price".

Bill,

Re your comment about BB&B and central banks etc. got me to thinking about a recent article about Las Vegas. The article described the unbelievable amount of data mining and security employed by casinos. They attempt to know absolutely everything that they can about their customers. And of course, as we know the house always wins. Sound familiar?

Using their data mining, facial recognition etc. they can even remove the one remaining advantage of customers, card counters at blackjack.

I believe that most readers would agree that our markets are to some degree fixed. But at least card-counting aka RSI calculations etc. are still permitted in our game.

Permit me also to recommend another website 'swoop.com'. It puts out a series of six or so short essays on weekly basis on weekends which address Washington foreign policy issues. They, so far, have been extremely unbiased, well plugged-in and as prescient as ongoing comment in this blog. An example would be a current article entitled "Economy: The Falling Dollar, Trade, Iran and the Middle East".
http://tinyurl.com/2jr6qy

I look forward to commentary on the weekend mining conference.

And I wish you more free time, preferably spent on a boat or fascimile.

craig- re oil, all good points...in fact, i'm going to sell the DUG and rotate into more QID...the QQQQ feels taut to me...how much longer can they keep it stretched out like this....

Somebody is looking to break NDX 2,800 today. All the ducks are in line including the four horsemen accounting for almost 3/4 of the gain. I had a double take when I realize (again!) how NDX/QQQQ are slowly turning into a derivative play on AAPL (accounts for half of the gain).

JML

Correction : NDX 2,200

JML

Stopped out of QID. I ain't fighting the tape today. Let's see what happens post-AMZN.

Bill or others who attended weekend conference

Just wonddering if you had any thoughts on Rubicon Minerals RBY. They had a booth and I believe Rob McEwen is a major shareholder. Any thoughts/info?

Thanks Kelly

SOR
This is a decent small oil I have been watching. It released news before the open that an expected 300 bpd well was producing 180. I have noticed that these small oils, after releasing some bad news, get overly punished. I have been watching many for a while. If it's a good company, these are buying opportunities.

I'm not buying because my tiny bit of capital is tied up. Just pointing out this action today as something someone here may want to watch, if not to buy, then at least to watch the action I described. Observe the patternm and see if that type of thing fits your trading profile. If you have an active small oil with many drilling prospects and is in production in other locations (this is a key aspect,) these occaisional dry well or slightly disappointing production news releases are marvelous entry points.

With associated risk, of course.

Completely off topic:

It's October 23 and it's just a hair under 80 degrees out in NYC.

Just sayin'...

“What these people say and what they want are not on the same page.”
Posted by: Bill Cara at October 23, 2007 1:17 PM

Perhaps another way of saying it is: “What these people say and what they do are not on the same page.”

As I’ve reminded my nieces and nephews continually, pay attention to their actions not just what they say.

Which brings us to Trojan horse Paulson. Here’s an excerpt from today’s Daily Pfennig (Everbank) commenting on the recent G-7 meet:

“Apparently... The Eurozone ministers had a statement all typed and ready to add to the communiqué' with supportive comments about the dollar... And guess who nixed the statement? U.S. Treasury Sec. Paulson...”

While he runs around telling U.S. citizens, CNBC, anybody who listens to him, this administration is for a strong dollar.

Just saw Cara 100 WAG pop above 30 on the daily RSI 7. Dipped my toe in.

Playing a little AMZN C115s. Going for a 3-peat.

UUU.to probing its 50 DMA at 11.60ish

Seamus,
Walked in to see my wife watching Oprah yesterday.
A speech by a Professor with terminal cancer. Advice on life for his kids. To the daughters the advice on boys/men...."Ignore what they say and pay attention to what they do".

Good advice for neices, nephews, daughters and investors/traders.

Hoosier,
What tool are you using for the intraday rsi 7 value for WAG?
Thanks

Bill......

Did you get a chance to talk with Mr.Rob McEwen of UXG at length? What's your take on UXG? Think he can make it a winner?

Moabmatt,

In the spreadsheet that Quentusrex and I created, there includes a tab for "Under the Microscope." It gives you a daily RSI-7 chart and intra day movements of RSI-7. I use multiple sheets of that design in a spreadsheet to keep track of stocks in the accumulation zone.

n2s- i hear you...maybe i'm losing it, but hoping amzn drives QID down to an even better entry tomorrow morning...

ALOHA !!

Bill ... WOW, the Bahamas sure have a powerful subliminal hold on you! Headed for the airport already!

Both Reps and Dems will get the best Presidential candidates that corrupt money can buy! I personally would think that a Obama/Clinton ticket would nail it for the Dems! I mean ... they get the women vote and the minority vote and Wall Street and the Defense contractors are at their service with unlimited funding! The more TV time a candidate can muster in the USA the more likely the voters will vote them. Americans can no longer think long term ... only one four year term! In terms of memory Americans have severe dementia! I doubt they can recall what they did four days ago much less what the Nixon administration did in Iran back in the 1970s. The average American only thinks of money in terms of a "beer run"!

For those here that do not think the past has any revelance to their current portfolio get ready for an awakening. For those here who don't believe it matters what happens politically for their APPL stock ... good luck! There will come a day when you will sell that stock ... then what? There will come a day when you can no longer work and are forced to retire ... then what? The answer to all the "then whats" is ravages of inflation! If you're completely in "paper" you're in a "no win" even if short term you get that 20% YAHOO ... I-made-a-profit ... don't forget the IRS is wating in the wings and so is the US debt and its fiat. The bankers and the politicians know that long term ... THEY OWN YOU! So long as they control the money ... THEY OWN YOU!!!

The KING of modern fiat banking had it all figured out back 230 years ago.

“Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws."
- Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

The basis of the Rothschild fortune was the startegy of backing "both" sides. That strategy has been used ever since ... and quite successfully. How else did we end up with the two party aristocracy we now have?

Thanks for the spreadsheet you guys. It keeps getting better.

Back into DUG and QID.

Bill,
I agree totally. I would love to see what the plunge protection team is buying so I could change my orders accordingly. Just imagine the currency and commodity moves we could do as well with info on what they're buying and selling. But, for now we'll just have to trade prices. I would love to see Ron Paul in there for president but I doubt if the Republicans would ever nominate him, since they like big and controlling government as well. Look how much government has grown and our debt has ballooned since '94 when Republicans took over Congress and you'll understand they're more for getting the gravy the Democrats were getting for 40 years than the fiscal responsibility they preach. And if the Dems win the White House they'll keep dipping in as well to offset all the Republicans got while the Dems were out of power. What we need is someone who won't sell out to anyone and will cut spending enough to run a surplus and actually use the surplus to pay off the debt. I think we have a much better chance of getting average Americans to just stop cashing Govt checks than we have of getting reform from the top. I trust ordinary Americans to do the right thing long before anyone in power will. What we have to do is somehow inspire the attitude that it is shameful to take government money because the condition we're in fiscally now we're actually spending our kids and grandkids money with every check we cash. Just stop cashing them.

Hooiser,
That's what I suspected.

BTW, last version of the worksheet I picked up was v1.2. Is that current?

I've been interested in WAG. I caught a falling knife, and got cut. Just a flesh wound, but one that adds to my short term memory. I got my shares at 40.55. I bailed at 38.90.

Please keep us posted on your exit point, or additional purchases...
Many Thanks!

2nd,
I think the mkt has to justify the fed cut so we correct or at least limp before Halloween.

Amazon beat by a penny and guided up. QID is up a hair afterward. You may get your opening wish tomorrow or now!

I'm riding ultras into the fed and then flipping on the cut. Glad I bought gold on the dip.

AMZN - Tanking after hours.
2nd- I did not have the BOS to buy the OCT 90 puts!

Today after the close of the many companies scheduled to report: ALTR, AMZN, BRCM, JNPR, NVLS,TRMB, RFMD. All down after hours.
As of now things look well for QID.

Marketwatch just had a story on their frontpage that the fires in California have the potential to stop the housing decline by destroying (they say reducing) supply of homes AND the potential to boost the economy as homes are rebuilt. They pulled this story off a few minutes after I saw it.

The destruction of overpriced assets is now good for the economy!

JogyP -

Good thing that you didn't buy options that expired last week.

Bull Hunter/2nd_Ave.

AMZN's action today looks suspicious at best. Now the question for the next few days: will we get a clean island reversal?

JML

What everyone's opinion on whether gold is in for a correction or not?

The author of the "Gold Price Newsletter" had this to say.... says yes based on the $HUI

http://tinyurl.com/yuwqbd

Also Gartman has been warning of a correction.

How does everyone here see it?

Jumble:
:) You know what I meant.

JogyP -

BTW, I had some Oct. $70 back in July and got rolled over by momentum. AMZN's breakout gaps taught me (and cost) a whole lot about shorting this year.

JML

Sheesh, my AMZN calls were up 50% since I bought them at 3PM. I thought about selling them, but it really did not matter much either way. I am still holding underwater QQQQ puts. Let's see what the analysts say about AMZN.

As a Canadian, I would also love to see Ron Paul get elected for President. I've showed the debates on youtube to friends and family here and they all basically say: thanks for enlightening me, he's great, etc.
but then i try to send links and info to my grandparents in California, and it is almost as if what I am doing is taboo, or faux pas, if you will.

It truly saddens me every time I see the part in the debates where Dr. Paul essentially asks Americans to take a look at what they do to the rest of the world...bomb Arab country for 10 years, occupy holy lands, etc...then Rudy Giuliani the thug makes the comment: I've never heard that before, I'd ask you to retract that statement, I can't believe rah rah rah... and the audience goes wild for their 'American Hero'.

Too bad I couldn't come say hi at this Toronto show Bill! Even though I had very little to say when we met last year, it was great to see you.

Isaiah,
The author (Sam Kirtly) is extremely guilty of "selective time period-itis" in his example. Yes, gold does regularly bounce off the MAs. You could have made very good money playing that the past 6-8 months or so.

However, he is only showing you the past year or so, where like clockwork $GOLD bounced off the 50 DMA on the daily and weekly chart. By that view, yes, a correction seems highly probable.

BUT! that is not the whole story.

Let's hop in the way-back machine, and dial it back to last August, 2005.

Look at this chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p53392789800

You can see that from November 2004 to August 2005, Gold pulls back to the 50 DMA four times. Buying on any of those pullbacks, especially if you are using leverage via futures or something, would have been very profitable. Suddenly in August, something changes. Gold springs off the 50 DMA, climbs and climbs and doesn't correct until May 2006, a full EIGHT MONTHS and 325/oz LATER!!!

Then, it goes into a consolidation pattern for a little less than a year, bouncing off of (or very close to) the 50 DMA four times or so (more very profitable chances,) and then last August lifts off the 50 DMA, to which it HAS NOT YET RETURNED.

Now look back again to 2005. Selling now, based on the similarity of the charts, is like selling at about 500 in lat fall 2005. And we all know what kind of move THAT would have been.

This is chicanery. Use the historical pattern, if you will. But all you need to do is extend it back a bit to show pretty much exactly the opposite of his point.

This is a free article. But someone should really pin this guy down on why he ignored the obvious pattern shown by looking back a little farther.

Gartman has a rep as a scardey cat and selling too early, according to others. I really don't know, nor do I have an opinion. But this chart does nothing to dissprove that.

BTW, I'm tallking about the part of the argument which refers to $GOLD (front month gold futures continuous contract) and it's behavior based on recent historical patterns. $GOLD is closer to actual metal than to share prices. Share prices are not gold, as I argued yesterday, and you can expect deviation. Especially when top-callers with a large following print selective junk (IMHO) charts like that.

BTW, I'm not saying use this history as a guide, (though personally, I hope I am in a position to afford the margin on even one contract the next time the $GOLD weekly pulls back to the 50 DMA) but merely explaining my view on Kirtly's's charts and chart-based calls.

Again, this is just historical chart reading and not a call on my part.

Bill:
Thank you for opining about gold spot/futures prices.
I was hoping for a comment from you - you're reading my mind!
regards
joey

Bad Day also equals Fidelity ATP platform tanking in the afternoon and missing a huge RIMM ramp when I literally saw the very first trade of 300K+ shares hit the chart. Note to self: Must think less act more.

I did mention that I shorted BUCY. I covered the short in the a.m. yesterday with a few buckaroos in my pocket. I then let it go up and shorted un poco shares. Well, it looks like a wee bit of a short squeeze. Note to self: check the short interest before holding a short.

sticking my neck out, Isaiah64v4, I am planning for a 30% drop in gold stocks, reasonably soon.

Moabmatt/Hoosier,

Walgreens WAG

Walgreen Co(WAG) Scotia Capital Hold to buy
Walgreen Co(WAG) Morgan Stanley Hold to buy
10/22/07

near got me convinced !

Walgreens senior vp sells shares

http://tinyurl.com/2bohsv

I looked at Yahoo finance at it was about 12% of his holdings.

Now!thats just dandy.

Tks chas

Great chance for students in Canadian schools.!

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Canada NewsWire

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registration and entry form at registration and entry form at www.scotiabank.com/beattheindex

Still hoping to hear what Rob McEwen said regarding Rubicon Minerals (RBY). I would appreciate anyone who attended the conference to comment. Thank you.

ALOHA !!

ON 401Ks
I had mentioned this before and so here it is in the "flesh"!!!

READ ON:
chicagotribune.com
YOUR MONEY: A WEEKLY GUIDE TO PERSONAL FINANCE: TAKING STOCK

Cash-strapped Americans raiding their 401(k)s
By Jilian Mincer

Dow Jones Newswires

Despite potential tax and investment problems, more investors have been borrowing from their 401(k) plans or taking hardship withdrawals in recent months, some retirement plan providers say.

Many in the field expect more borrowing in 2008, as consumers struggle with tighter credit and potentially higher mortgage payments.

"I don't think it's a groundswell but it's enough to be noticed," said Rick Meigs, president of 401khelpcenter.com, which provides information on 401(k) plans.

Increased borrowing on 401(k)s could be because of the credit crunch and slumping housing prices. To be sure, the indications are preliminary; it's too early to say why it's happening, according to the Hartford Financial Services Group.

Borrowing against your retirement nest egg may seem tempting but it presents a host of problems. It could significantly reduce your savings at retirement and create an expensive tax bill if you can't repay the loan when it's due.

Almost all plans allow borrowers to take money out of their 401(k) accounts and repay it plus interest, which is typically 1 or 2 percentage points above prime. Although plans vary, the most you can borrow typically is the lesser of 50 percent of a vested balance or $50,000.

Employees usually must repay money borrowed for a mortgage within 15 years, and money used for other purposes within five years. Most loans also have a $50 to $100 fee.

If you fail to pay back the loan on time and are younger than 59 1/2, you are subject to regular income tax and a penalty tax of 10 percent for early withdrawal.

"A few years ago, the buzz was about borrowing from a 401(k) to buy a second home," said Jeff Carbone, a financial adviser in Cornelius, N.C. "Now it's people looking at their 401(k) because they've extended themselves on their homes and credit lines."

Even though his clients typically have investable assets of at least $750,000, Carbone said some have "maxed out their credit" and feel the pain of higher payments for a home-equity line of credit.

Pamela Hess, director of retirement research at Hewitt Associates, sees "a marginal uptick" in borrowing. "The economy isn't as strong as it was a couple of years ago," she said.

Indicative of some of the stress, the amount of calls to Principal Financial Group Inc. about hardship withdrawals, while small, has jumped significantly in recent months, company officials said. Not all 401(k) plans permit hardship withdrawals, but the IRS allows them for, among other things, medical or funeral expenses, purchasing a primary residence, or avoiding eviction from or foreclosure on a primary residence.

The number of calls asking about withdrawals to prevent a potential foreclosure or eviction doubled in August over July, said Janet Fossell, director of individual investor services for Principal. There were fewer calls in September than August, but still more than in July ...

Link: http://tinyurl.com/25tkvq

Bill....... thanks for your imput on the possible pull back in gold. Hope you will keep us [novices] up todate with your thoughts on where gold is heading.

MikeNYC..... thanks for taking the time to explain the holes in Sam Kirtly's "selective time period-itis". I see what you mean. One would of left a lot of $$$ on the table with his type of reasoning. But I take it you still think there is a good chance gold could pull back but no based on the charts at this time. Correct?

Thanks everyone... I appreciate your opinions!

Denny_Phelps ....30% ....... want to go out a little further and say when? :-)

I'll probably regret getting stopped out of QID today as the Amazon report should weigh on the Naz tomorrow. I'm listening to the call -- they are a great company, but their margins are compressing. And that's probably what's sending sellers into a frenzy in after hours.

As for Rob McEwen, did he talk about Minera Andes (MNEAF)? He had a stake in the company last I checked.

When Bill speaks of a "full position"... Is that a relative term, or is there a generally agreed upon measurement... Like "full basket" being 100 shares?

GSS: Down 8% after hours at 3.5

The co announces "its intent to offer and sell an aggregate principal amount of up to $125 mln of Convertible Senior Unsecured Debentures." Note co also pre-announced earnings in Canadian dollars net loss for Q3 2007 of $0.06 compared to a $0.01 loss in Q3 of 2006.

How bad is this news?

JogyP: Well a loss of .06 v. .01 is pretty high--what were expectations? Expectations are key. Issuing convertible debentures--more debt, more interest expense and potential for dilution to current shareholders when converted (is there a conversion price?)

Any of you guys ever hear of the
"Hindenburg Omen?"

Doug Kass talks about it in his write up today titled... "Market Divergence Should Worry You"

http://tinyurl.com/2nr22p

If he is right then holder of QID are about to score BIG !

Any fundamental help on the GSS matter would be...helpful (all you pocket-protector types:)

By the way I told you it was gonna break down.

A good description of the "Hindenburg Omen" by
MARK HULBERT

http://tinyurl.com/2tlf2c

Isaiah,
When you try to figure out gold, or rather trading gold, to be specific, you quickly find yourself right down the rabbit hole in terms of things making sense.

A couple of examples just popped into mind:

1. The gold metal price powers the gold equities prices. Yet a big move in $GOLD that is NOT confirmed by a subsequent move in ^HUI seems to yield a later pullback in $GOLD.

WHAT!? That's a dog chasing it's tail, and yet it seems to hold up.

People trading $GOLD futures, during those long sleepness nights, keep one eye on the spot, one eye on the DX, one eye on ^HUI, and if they are smart, which in the past I have not been and have the blown up futures account(s) to show for it, eleven fingers on the sell button. (but if you sell TOO fast, you'll get faked out!)

2. Gold is manipulated and controlled, but technical analysis makes sense even here. For example, the trades agains the MA's I mentioned.

But here's another example:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p94891061781

On this chart, on July 16th to about Sept 10, you have a classic, textbook perfect example of a 'box play' as outlined by John Carter. The way it works is you have at least two touches on a high and low price, forming a box. You have at least a 25% pullback into the box after the fourth touch, and then you place your orders one tick outside the box, long above, short below.

After you get filled, long or short, your other order becomes your stop and your profit traget is 'one box' from your fill.

Look closely. It forms right out of the book and about 'one box' away from the long entry, you see a slight dip, almost as if people traded this play that way. (though I will say, anyone who traded this 'out of the book' and has their stop 20-30 points away on a gold futures trade is Big Dog - that's up to $3,000 loss on a single contract!!!)

Yet at the same as you CAN look at it technically, gold is incredibly manipulated. It makes no sense that TA would work if Gold-man and the central bankers control the price, but there it is.

But the forces on gold seem to be pushing harder and harder. Central banks and the cartels let it get away last year and seemed determined to control the rise in price this time. $GOLD is rarely allowed to move more than 8-10 bucks a day for example, and when, on occasion it does, it is walked back down overnight. I've watched that time and time again. Yet the buck and the geopolitical situation seems worse and worse. Then toss in that some think peak gold may be here.

I think the forces pushing in both directions are pushing harder and harder and there will be resulting moves that will be explosive. That's why it's so hard to trade the futures. The blowups can, and do, come at minute. I think that, too, may be designed to shake people off.

Overall: Lately we see gold being taken down when equities tank. So if you think equities will plummet, it seems you'll get your pullback.

But it's rise seems inevitable in an age of a race to see who can debase their currency the fastest. Gold is money and will be money as far into the future as concerns us.

My opionion, from a guy who has watched gold move more than he's made money on it (though there are signs I am finally learning and turning it around!):

Trade if you will. But keep a core of something that is quality (metal or shares in a top quality producer) so that A) you don't miss out on 'the' move, B) you won't feel as naked when you trade out of your trading positions, and C) for protection.

But hey. What do I know. I'm just some guy on the Internet!

Good luck, all.

QID- wasn't fast enough to pick any up AH under 35...barring anything major happening overnight planning on rounding out a full position tomorrow morning...per craig's earlier post, staying away from DUG for now...

AH action in AMZN takes it all the way back to...last night's close! 41m shares traded today above the AH close? i can hear what those buyers are thinking...

Rob McEwen also holds significant positions in Everton (EVR), Lexam (LEX) and Golden Valley (GZZ). I am long all three. If anyone who was at the conference heard anything regarding these companies I would appreciate the news. Thanks, Fred

Shark, you see that BMD today? It's working for me. Slow and steady upwards all day long.

Re GSX - you know you have numbers coming out in a week or two, right? They reported %100+ YoY increase in oil production in their last 10K (8K? Some K or another)

So it looks like that is being 'baked in'

The question is: is it a sell on the news deal, or will you get a nice pop on good news getting out? I see most small oils running up nicely after a good numbers release, and not the selling you see in a lot of other types of shares, after what seems like a nice release of numbers (but not nice enough for Wall Street!)

KOG up 2.5% today.

I wish this were a lot easier. My crystal ball says 'Brunswick' and has three holes drilled in it.

as if "3:45 PM EDT" even Cramer is advising: "Time to Take Some Off" "If you bought hot tech, lighten up before you get burned." CYA time...long Cramer ;)

"as OF 3:45 PM..."

"as OF 3:45 PM.."

MikeNYC..........

That was a lot of heavy stuff you laid out there tonight for me. And yet it made some sense to me. Give me some time to digest all of what you wrote tonight and hopefully tomorrow I'll have an intelligent question or two for you about all this.

For once I want to come out on top of a trade [especially on gold] rather than.... at the bottom of it.

Thanks for all your time tonight. I do appreciate it!

Yes Mike, I did see BMD up some 7 % today. I will be watching with an eye toward getting in.

Stocks I like for tomorrow are Harmony Gold, UXG, Vista Gold, GW, KOG maybe, we'll see what GSS does. ETQ looks interesting.

[kaimu] - on currencies: my observation from the conference - 'who in their right mind would hold US dollars!'. Answer at the forum: 'Foreign central banks'. Panel leaned towards the fact that 'most' currencies are losing purchasing power (inflation induced). The audience was told to own some foreign currencies. They did not tell us how to hold or what to hold. Buy our newsletter??? Canada was blasted because of the large holdings of US dollars and having very little physical gold. The plus for the Canadian dollar is that Foreign Central Banks don't hold Canadian dollars. I guess they won't come knocking to Canada asking for oil or gold.

[Kelly] ==> Rubicon Minerals RBY. I don't remember anything mentioned about the stock. If Rob McEwen is a major shareholder, then I would trust his instincts. I have never had an ownership in this stock or US Gold, but will now consider holding either one or both. I have an aversion to mines located in a country other than Canada or The United States. Also Rob McEwen stated that mutual funds have about 1 percent of their holdings in physical gold/gold stocks. Imagine what will happen if they move it up to 2 percent. Rob gave off the scale predictions for the future price of gold. Visit the US Gold web site more information (if you dare).

A panellist said that he had access to a database with information on the players in the mining field with their success rates and the links with other miners. Said that finding the next go to stock depended on the players. Sounded like Bill's comment about backing the jockey. I like the idea. Wouldn't it be great if some blog members could look into setting up one here and we could develop it just like the geeks develop open source software? Maybe a spreadsheet creating our own intelligence report.

Other notes from the show:

For a free show and one that was promoted, I was surprised at the Sunday turnout. You could meet any exhibitor. It was not as crowded as I expected. At the Casey presentation at 9:30 am, he asked for a show of hands, first for those who subscribed to his newsletter - a lot of hands went up. Second he asked for a show of hands for those who attended a previous show. Another sea of hands went up. Got a sense that the general public did not come out. There were no crowds on the show floor. About 30% to 40% of what I felt should have been there. [Maybe the promoters should have charged $10]. I planned to leave after lunch but stayed to about 5:30 pm and the numbers at the show remained about the same all day. Either the interest in gold is over or the hysteria is yet to come [which would be good for us]. Are we short-term at the point were gold stocks are the last one at the dance? I and not sure yet. Can anyone who went to show on Monday tell me if the business crowd turned out on Monday? [As a side note, I was at the show on Sunday but had to be at work on Monday. I was too tired to post until Monday night.

Usually at the computer or financial shows I attend there is a buzz of excitement. Not so at this show. I think the volatility of the last few months has caused a lot of walking wounded.

Argentina got good reviews as they went bankrupt and wiped out their debts. The country is now experiencing a boom. Could this be a model for the USA? [I am joking].

Because I asked Mr McEwen my share of questions, there was one I would have liked to get his opinion on: "Do you think in the future that The United States will make it illegal for citizens to hold physical gold (and silver)?" And depending on the answer: "Do you think they have enough influence to have foreign governments also make holding gold illegal?"

Some comments I heard at the show: "We are in a bear market in a Bull market". "If this is a bull market, why do I feel so much pain?". "Use stockhouse_com and use the filter for unusual volume [as an indicator of stocks to watch]".

Expect a lot of volatility in the stock market in the near term. There is a tug a war between the bulls and bears. [020]

Shark, it's a risky play. But you know that.

Isaiah, when you say trade gold, exactly what do you mean? Futures, ETF, miner indexes (^HUI, etc)mining shares, senior producers, junior producers, explorers? They are all so very different.

What's your time frame, level of risk, expectation of reward, etc. What's your trade? Day, swing, position, long term investment?

(Those are rhetorical questions you have to ask and answer yourself.)

I just re-read 'Come In to My Trading Room' This book will help you a lot no matter what it is you want to trade. I am trying to read and learn a lot and my plan is to read one new book, then re-read 'Trading Room,' read another new book, re-read "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" by Van Tharp, read a new book and then re-read 'Trading Room' and so on. That's how much I believe in the concepts in those two books.

I also found "Gold Trading Boot Camp" very interesting. I'll probably re-read that next, as I'm about to finish 'Trading Room' for the second time. Weldon is a data-monster and a brilliant guy. And I have to say, nothing I have ever read attracted as much attention on the subway as a bright yellow book with a pile of gold bars on the cover called "Gold Trading Boot Camp!" I think I would not have as many people checking out what I was reading, even if it were the new Playboy with the centerfold flipped out.

You haven't chosen an easy thing to trade, my friend. But it draws people back again and again, like the moth to the flame, doesn't it? Even if it's shares and not a hunk of metal, we keep coming back to it. I think there is also a built in advantage in that every country in the world seems willing to debase their currency to no end.

That's a safety net under gold, IMHO.

And the bankers will provide an entry the next time they tank gold. You can use the games these guys pull against them, if you are patient. I think that's the heart of what Bill is teaching with the RSI model, too. Patience and smarts.

Good luck and be careful. And smart.

BernardF,
Your bear market comment/walking wounded is so fascinating. It reflects on my comments on 'gold people' who hold none. Had they taken all their cash and bought gold bars two years ago they'd be 'up' well over 50%, almost 60%. That's 30%/year. They'd have beaten a lot of funds, easily.

And if they sold out of the money calls on the same bars it would be even higher than 60%

God, I wish I could get access to a few hundred million in yen. I wouldn't even need to leverage it. I'd lay down a few hundred contracts worth of gold and silver, and write way OOM calls and enjoy the appreciation and the income from the calls. Seems so simple.

I think these people at this show are looking for lottery tickets. It sounds to me like gamblers at the track, looking for tips. Losers.

Here's another example:

If, same two years ago, they had taken control of five full sized gold contracts in a futures account, requiring $10,000 margin plus maybe that much more in the bank (gold futures accounts should always be well capitalized) it would have played out like this:

After some small draw down in November 2005, they could have forgotten about it and let it run, rolling it over when appropriate to a new contract.

Oct 2005- 475

Oct 2007- 775

300 dollars per ounce. Times 5000 ounces. (1000/contract)

That's $1,500,000 for doing nothing but setting aside $20,000 for two years. That's with no pyramiding or anything. If you pyramided a bit, which introduced layers of risk, with associated rewards, that 20,000 could have become, well, just say that these guys would not be scrounging for tips. They'd be chillin with Bill in the Bahamas. From 20K.

They were probably at the same show two years ago, looking for tips on risky explorers and bitching.

I'm not saying explorers and juniors are bad. I AM saying there are other ways to play the gold complex that can be rewarding, too.

(If my math is wrong, someone please correct me.)

That's why, next pull back to the 50 DMA, I hope to have the capital for even a single gold contract.

"God, I wish I could get access to a few hundred million in yen. I wouldn't even need to leverage it. I'd lay down a few hundred contracts worth of gold and silver, and write way OOM calls and enjoy the appreciation and the income from the calls. Seems so simple."

Been away for a bit, finding my junior pick, GBN.V had no advance on high grade news.

I find the discussion on gold here very interesting in terms of leverage and currencies. Quite some time ago, I began watching Yen gold because if anything would indicate the health of gold spot prices would be a breakout in Yen gold prices. That was confirmed some time ago:

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/dailyshort2000.html

I guess the next step would be the Euro gold price breakout and finally the $CDN gold price breakout.

I am a little surprised that gold investing has not taken hold in Asia more so than here, where emerging markets are experiencing hyperinflation, thus I take heed when people are discussing Yen and Gold.

But the Gold price hasn't been driven by the carry trade, it would seem short of gold operations, or some kind of derivatives trade may be closer to the truth considering the historical levels of open contracts long and short on gold prices.

Number2son -

I don't remember what McEwan himself may have said about Minera Andes, but I did spend about a half hour with their IR VP. Art Johnson. He was quite impressive, havng had a long career dating back to Minera's predecessor company (it was spun out of a contract mining firm based in Wash. State).

Into their property in west Argentina, they had brought Hochschild of Peru for capital, and because they are an experienced operator.

MAI intended to focus on exploration and development only. He claimed they had developed the best geological database on their chosen provinces of Argentina, which he maintained were the most mining friendly.

He said the CEO of Minera was an exploration geologist who was actually an even better negotiator and businessman. The CEO had been one of the co-discoverers of GRZ's huge deposit in VZ. While I don't remember (and am not qualified to evaluate) their properties, I WAS impressed by Art.

Parenthetically, he had a concise "theory" about how to evaluate juniors: the 4 M's - management, minerals, money (raised), and marketing.

FranSix -

I'd be most interested to hear why you like GBN.V. Weekly chart looks as if the stock has been stuck in a trading range largely between .38 and .66 since March '06.

If there's been lots of good news, then it would seem due for a move. I didn't realize there was a lot of gold action in Saskatchewan.

ALOHA !!

MikeNYC ... You have gold futures contracts mixed up with silver futures contracts. A gold contract is for 100 ounces and silver contracts are 1000 ounces. In your example($300 x 500 ounces) the gross net would be $150,000 not $1.5mil. How far will $150k get you in the Bahamas I wonder?

BernanrdF ... Thanks for the currency report from the conference. In essence it seems they advise dodging the US Dollar bullet by hiding out in other currencies they consider more stable. I can only imagine they are hinting at resource currencies like the Loonie and the OZ. For awhile Spain was a heavy seller of their gold reserves so they could pay down "debt". What happens when they are out of gold to sell will that mean they will no longer be able to accumulate debt? Or will that mean they will no longer be able to pay their debt? Somehow I believe the latter will apply ... I have to ask when will the USA sell what's left of their gold reserves to officially pay off US debt? The other question is what's left of US gold reserves that can be sold? The other question is why bother since selling US gold probably would only pay for one years worth of interest payments on US debt. I guess the rest of the World is waiting for some sort of official announcement from the US Treasury ... "WE'RE OFFICIALLY BROKE, FOLKS!!! The moose out in front should have told you ..." I mean 1+1 ... PLEASE-E-E-E !!!

Thanks Kaimu. I thought it looked a little high. Like Barbie says, said "Math is Hard!"

Speaking of Spain, it is no surprise at the fierceness with which they are persuing the Odyssey treasure. They need the (hard) money.

Second-brokest country in the world.

"Law of the Sea? Treaty we signed? Blah blah blah I can't hear you. Give us back our silver!!!"

It shows you how a country disregards treaties it signs when it's in it's best interest and its back is against the wall.

A Message by George Carlin (whose wife recently died):

>> The paradox of our time in history is that we have taller buildings but

>> shorter tempers, wider Freeways, but narrower viewpoints. We spend more,
>> but have less, we buy more, but enjoy less. We have bigger houses and
>> smaller families, more conveniences, but less time. We have more degrees
>> but less sense, more knowledge, but less judgment, more experts, yet
>> more problems, more medicine, but less wellness.

>> We drink too much, smoke too much, spend too recklessly, laugh too
>> little, drive too fast, get too angry, stay up too late, get up too
>> tired, read too little, watch TV too much, and pray too seldom.

>> We have multiplied our possessions, but reduced our values. We talk too
>> much, love too seldom, and hate too often.

>> We've learned how to make a living, but not a life. We've added years to
>> life not life to years. We've been all the way to the moon and back, but
>> have trouble crossing the street to meet a new neighbor. We conquered
>> outer space but not inner space. We've done larger things, but not
>> better things.

>> We've cleaned up the air, but polluted the soul. We've conquered the
>> atom, but not our prejudice. We write more, but learn less. We plan
>> more, but accomplish less. We've learned to rush, but not to wait. We
>> build more computers to hold more information, to produce more copies
>> than ever, but we communicate less and less.

>> These are the times of fast foods and slow digestion, big men and small
>> character, steep profits and shallow relationships. These are the days
>> of two incomes but more divorce, fancier houses, but broken homes. These
>> are days of quick trips, disposable diapers, throwaway morality, one
>> night stands, overweight bodies, and pills that do everything from
>> cheer, to quiet, to kill. It is a time when there is much in the
>> showroom window and nothing in t he stockroom. A time when technology
>> can bring this letter to you, and a time when you can choose either to
>> share this insight, or to just hit delete...

>> Remember; spend some time with your loved ones, because they are not
>> going to be around forever.

>> Remember, say a kind word to someone who looks up to you in awe, because
>> that little person soon will grow up and leave your side.

>> Remember, to give a warm hug to the one next to you, because that is the
>> only treasure you can give with your heart and it doesn't cost a cent.

>> Remember, to say, "I love you" to your partner and your loved ones, but
>> most of all mean it. A kiss and an embra