As you recall, I was sharply criticized for opining that the DJIA would soon recover to “near record high” levels and that Gold would soon be trading at 750, giving my rationale that:

(i) traders were selling stocks in a panic and it’s always the best time to buy into extreme weakness,
(ii) central banks were pumping liquidity into the markets at a pace the likes of which we had not seen since 9/11 2001, and
(iii) the trends and cycles of the price charts showed me “there was fight in the Old Bull yet”.

You know this already, but here is the proof of concept:

The point is that if I was correct in my earlier perspective for the reasons I had at the time, then I can continue to stick to my tactics. If I was wrong, I need to change tactics but first I need to know why I was wrong in order that I can best determine my new tactics.

At all times, I need to keep an open mind. Some people find that disconcerting.

Trading is a bit like driving a car in a road race. At the end of the race, the average speed of the winner might be say 100 mph, but there are straight-aways where the pace is up to 200 mph or more, followed by corners where it falls sometimes to almost zero.

If you think of market timing as something akin to race timing, we would surely have sub-par performance if we drove our car at 100 mph down the straight-aways and then around the corners. Statistically, our average pace would put us into the winner’s circle, but in reality would, at best, make us a loser, and probably put us into the hospital.

As traders, we must recognize the market’s condition, which is constantly changing. Unlike the straights and chicanes, the rises and dips in the road, traders are facing changing foreign exchange rates, interest rates, economic conditions, and commodity prices. Therefore, at every moment, we must adapt our portfolio tactics to the conditions we face.

Strategy for me is just as important as tactics. As for me, in any race I only want to drive a Ferrari, BMW or Mercedes. Those, like the Cara 100 of the financial markets, are the usual winners. If you are serious about winning, why drive a jalopy that breaks down much of the time? I’m not the least bit interested.

This week in the market, the road was straight and easy. Twenty-seven of the Dow 30 stocks were up on the week, and ten of the ten unique sectors I follow were also higher. The level of the DJIA and some of these sector indexes is now back to near-record levels. What’s next?

That is the most interesting thing about trading the market. We are mostly anticipating and changing tactics to match the conditions, occasionally looking back to see if our previous decisions are keeping us ahead of the competition. We are actively involved.

So where are we today?

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The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Friday session Cara 100 gainers.

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Here are Cara 100 losers on Friday.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Friday session.

The volume is picking up, so traders must now pay more attention to the Daily RSI-7 data. When it rolls over above 70 and 80 and then falls below 70, that is another Sell Alert, especially if happening on rising volume.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes. Many stocks on Friday had an increase of more than +25 pct of the average daily volume. Try to watch the big-volume, declining-price movers in connection to their action with the Daily RSI-7 data.

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Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

The folks at KNOBIAS, Inc provided the Cara 100 watchlists.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

Here are the charts of up to a dozen stocks with RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from Friday. The market has, for a couple days, been over-bought. Traders are anticipating more central bank rate cuts.

RSI > 70 (12 of 40)

RSI < 30 (0)

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(When available) Here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for Friday:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”. That explains the differences in the RSI-7 values.

You can be whip-sawed easier with unsmoothed data, but in any period where volatility is low, the unsmoothed RSI technical indicator system is a more useful one, I find. If I believe in a Buy decision say, then I want to have a reference point continuum that is going to give me a decision support signal just a bit ahead of other traders, which I can do with unsmoothed data.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

Weekly Impulse Report

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both these indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

This week saw 24 GREEN industries, and 0 RED (compared to 17 GREEN industries, and 0 RED last week).

Of the Cara 100 components, 68 are green (last week: 46), 1 red - MU (last week: 18). TEK counts as GREEN but does not appear below for lack of historical trading data:

The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):

ALL the following stock indices were GREEN this week: DJIA, NDX, Nasdaq Comp, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500.

The CRB commodity index stayed GREEN. GOLD & SILVER stocks stayed GREEN.

The US dollar index stayed RED – and hit a 36-year low!

Bottom line: the broad stock market strengthened this week on the heels of the Fed’s .50% rate cut. My monthly US$ index chart - having departed its 15-year head & shoulders pattern - plunged 1.3% deeper into Uncle Sam’s arm!

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

On Friday, the DJIA gained +53 points (+0.39 pct) to close at 13820, up from the previous Friday’s 13443, for a gain of +377 points W/W and +677 points over two weeks.

The broad market indexes are now well above both the 50-day and 200-day Moving average technical lines of resistance, and the volume is picking up, which means that traders are less cautious. The Daily RSI-7 data (see from Chris) also shows the market is over-bought. This combo warrants close monitoring.

Selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite had a huge gain on Tuesday after the 2:15pm ET release of the FOMC decision to cut both the Fed Funds and Discount Rates by -50 basis points. Nasdaq closed at 2671, up from 2602 the previous Friday, but almost the whole move came at the announcement of the rate cuts.

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (ie, $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FXI	168.48	4.88	2.98%	8.15%	14.78%	21.95%	44.74%	29.67%	62.92%	108.00%
EWZ	69.32	1.60	2.36%	8.14%	13.56%	20.03%	48.44%	11.20%	41.41%	91.02%
TRF	64.67	0.70	1.09%	4.93%	7.07%	6.23%	-26.97%	-5.84%	-8.18%	-0.58%
IEV	117.40	0.75	0.64%	3.69%	5.20%	5.70%	11.17%	0.26%	8.12%	22.48%
EWC	32.16	0.22	0.69%	3.44%	7.31%	9.09%	30.20%	7.02%	23.50%	36.50%
EWU	25.42	0.31	1.23%	2.87%	3.46%	5.26%	7.94%	-0.43%	5.04%	16.87%
IFN	50.86	1.46	2.96%	2.33%	10.54%	17.03%	12.17%	18.31%	24.96%	19.59%
QQQQ	50.36	0.33	0.66%	2.32%	4.42%	5.95%	16.47%	5.49%	13.37%	25.34%
SPY	151.97	-0.31	-0.20%	2.07%	3.98%	3.72%	7.50%	0.01%	6.06%	15.24%
EWJ	13.78	0.04	0.29%	1.47%	1.03%	-0.86%	-2.96%	-5.55%	-7.27%	2.91%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the equity market.

This week it was a case of all ten sector ETFs up and zero down. A closer inspection shows that the Consumer group (Discretionary Spending +1.0 pct, Staples +1.0 pct, and Healthcare +1.6 pct) were the smallest performers W/W and the commodity producers (Basic Materials and Energy) were #1 and #2 respectively (with gains of +5.1 pct and +4.1 pct).

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLB	41.57	-0.06	-0.14%	5.05%	7.22%	7.97%	20.11%	1.37%	8.71%	33.45%
XLE	75.70	0.25	0.33%	4.08%	7.74%	11.82%	33.79%	7.53%	28.87%	46.85%
SMH	38.58	0.29	0.76%	3.88%	2.04%	3.63%	14.92%	-0.69%	11.50%	15.37%
IYZ	33.85	0.21	0.62%	3.74%	4.06%	3.14%	14.13%	-0.38%	8.77%	22.07%
XLI	40.63	0.02	0.05%	2.76%	4.96%	4.55%	15.33%	3.17%	12.61%	24.82%
XLF	34.60	-0.04	-0.12%	2.16%	4.85%	0.44%	-6.28%	-6.49%	-4.89%	1.23%
XLU	40.32	-0.27	-0.67%	1.56%	3.33%	2.28%	9.51%	2.18%	1.56%	20.04%
IYH	70.73	0.22	0.31%	1.55%	3.17%	3.82%	6.42%	0.44%	4.66%	7.97%
XLP	27.66	-0.12	-0.43%	1.02%	3.44%	2.90%	5.25%	1.69%	3.98%	8.64%
XLY	37.10	-0.12	-0.32%	0.95%	3.26%	1.84%	-3.69%	-6.43%	-4.26%	7.85%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Energy (XLE) was the #2 performer this week (+4.08 pct, closing at 75.70). XLE was #1 performer for three weeks in a row before this week. There was a gain of +0.33 pct on Friday.

China National Offshore Oil Co (CEO +16.7 pct) was the big winner this week, as it was a week ago (+8.6 pct). So, traders have made their year long CEO in the past two weeks (+26.8 pct), four weeks (+34.6 pct), or YTD (+64.2 pct). For the past year (52-weeks), CEO is up +88.7 pct.

PBR (of Brazil) was up +8.9 pct this week, and has been up +46.7 pct YTD and +89.9 pct over the past 52 weeks.

All through this time, the Big Oil stocks have flourished across the board. Despite rising cost structures and minimal gains in unit volume growth, the record high Crude Oil prices has translated into huge gains in cash flow and earnings per share.

The foreign oil companies have benefited most as traders have been moving capital from the US to the developing markets (China and Brazil are certainly two). So, you see how well the shares of CEO and PBR have done, and America’s ExxonMobil (XOM +4.1 pct W/W and +42.5 pct over 52-weeks) and ChevronTexaco (CVX +4.6 pct W/W and +52.8 pct over 52-weeks) are also doing well, but are laggards in the group.

Canada’s IMO (+5.6 pct W/W), ECA (+1.41 pct W/W) and SU (-0.42 pct W/W after a downgrade, but +1.83 pct on Friday) were doing ok, but not as well as the peers, this week. These companies are facing greater cost inflation, although wth the Cdn Dollar now at about par with the USD, the costs of imported materials will be lessened a bit.

I still believe that as soon as the USD strengthens, Crude Oil prices will top out, and economic slowdown will cause the cashflow/earnings of these oil companies to slow/drop, which will cause the share prices to sell off. XOM at $92.31 is struggling to get through the $93.25 record high of July 23. Without the drastic Fed move to cut rates -50bp on Tuesday, I think XOM was just about done like dinner. In any event, the Fed rate cut has given long-term traders another opportunity to sell into strength at or near the record high.

Of course, you all recognize that I acknowledge Exxon is a Cara 100 company because it has earned respect for its financial strength, and superior quantitative results. There just happens to be a time I sell and another time I buy.

Do you recall on May 16, 2005, I wrote a headline article, “Oils to recover tomorrow”, Mon., May 16, 2005, 7:41 PM, and then the oils immediately started a bull run.

But ten days later, I sold XOM at 53.80 on May 26, 2005. I was more interested in CEO and PBR.

Crude Oil prices continued to escalate as the USD dropped, but XOM stock floundered for at least a year. By year-end 2005, the stock was just 54.41 (adjusted for dividends), and by June 19, 2006, XOM had traded up to just 56.86, setting a low that month of 55.44.

But June 2006 was the next time the Weekly-Daily RSI-7 dipped to 30 or lower, which was a time (Intermediate-term cycle) to buy. The time after that was March of this year. There is always a time to buy and a time to sell if you use the Accumulation/Distribution Zone and Buy/Sell alert system I write about in these pages, and combine that tactic with an understanding of the economic and commodity price drivers and a strategy of trading only the shares of the best quality companies.

This week, the unsmoothed RSI-7 data is 87.8 (Monthly), 73.4 (Weekly) and 81.4 (Daily). That means it is in the Distribution Zone, which means I am looking for the right circumstances to sell, like in July when the Sell Alert (Daily RSI-7 dropped below 70) with the share price above 90. Two and three weeks later, the share price had dropped to 79-82. Then the FOMC decision on its own bumped it back up again, mostly in a single day.

That’s an intervention. Traders have to make decisions on the basis of corporate fundamental and quantitative data (strategy) and technical indicator trend and cycle data (tactics), so, I say the market is back awaiting a Sell Alert for XOM. Maybe it happens Monday or a week from Monday or some time after that. I don’t have a clue, and the market wouldn’t listen to me anyway. But I listen to the market, and it will tell me when there is a Sell Alert.

If I happen to miss the top by a few percent and the bottom by a few percent, I know that my performance overall is going to be superior to anybody who doesn’t have an understanding of how capital markets work, and a system for trading prices. So, if I have a large majority of winners (say 75 pct of all my trades) and my winners have greater percentage gains on average than my losers have percentage losses on average, then my performance will be in the top quartile, probably top decile every quarter. And over the years, when I look at the major market averages (of the DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 for example), I know I will be ahead by a considerable margin.

So, if I say to you (some time soon) that I believe XOM has given another Sell Alert, you ought to take heed. Maybe the price will rise a bit, but just like May 26 2005 after I sold, it may take a long time to perform well despite my other call ten days earlier that the oil stock index should have been bought and that I expected oil stocks to rally, which they did.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CEO	154.82	6.38	4.30%	16.71%	26.77%	34.63%	64.23%	32.38%	86.40%	88.69%
PBR	73.10	2.47	3.50%	8.93%	13.97%	27.42%	46.70%	18.67%	56.67%	89.87%
STO	34.62	0.20	0.58%	8.66%	14.45%	25.43%	34.76%	15.98%	33.26%	44.25%
IMO	50.14	1.01	2.06%	5.56%	11.82%	18.25%	40.61%	7.23%	38.89%	50.16%
CVX	94.84	0.67	0.71%	4.62%	8.20%	10.95%	33.63%	14.47%	32.94%	52.84%
TOT	81.44	-0.59	-0.72%	4.50%	8.15%	12.36%	14.75%	2.63%	20.99%	26.32%
XOM	92.31	0.22	0.24%	4.11%	7.65%	10.22%	24.56%	9.50%	26.05%	42.50%
ECA	62.61	0.19	0.30%	1.41%	6.10%	6.57%	38.09%	-4.80%	29.01%	38.52%
SU	95.92	1.72	1.83%	-0.42%	5.43%	11.86%	29.78%	6.00%	34.04%	39.83%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) gained +5.05 pct on the week to close at 41.57. Steel, goldminers and chemical producers were strong once again.

Steelmakers PKX +10.9 pct and MT +11.5 pct were very strong this week as they were a week ago (PKX +9.0 pct and MT +6.7 pct). Over the past 52-weeks, PKX is up +189.0 pct and MT +125.6 pct.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TCK	48.02	-0.10	-0.21%	12.07%	18.13%	13.82%	-30.66%	6.31%	-28.72%	-20.03%
TS	51.85	0.94	1.85%	12.06%	14.76%	10.93%	6.86%	6.89%	17.10%	43.83%
RIO	30.45	0.60	2.01%	11.74%	-39.92%	-32.36%	5.66%	-33.82%	-17.95%	50.15%
MT	76.11	2.67	3.64%	11.52%	18.96%	27.70%	86.54%	14.78%	43.36%	125.64%
PKX	182.01	2.98	1.66%	10.74%	20.65%	31.80%	129.15%	45.90%	75.58%	189.00%
BHP	72.53	1.19	1.67%	9.99%	13.01%	18.98%	86.60%	20.10%	53.63%	93.98%
RTP	328.59	5.09	1.57%	9.95%	11.48%	25.61%	60.99%	6.48%	46.73%	77.13%
GGB	25.00	0.07	0.28%	7.94%	6.20%	10.67%	52.25%	-2.04%	39.12%	91.86%
AA	37.40	0.12	0.32%	5.41%	7.26%	4.56%	27.51%	-7.29%	10.49%	35.16%
NUE	59.50	1.34	2.30%	4.26%	10.45%	15.47%	9.17%	-4.43%	-9.16%	24.82%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABB	25.58	0.50	1.99%	7.48%	10.35%	10.98%	43.55%	14.20%	45.34%	92.91%
CAT	78.16	0.79	1.02%	6.83%	6.43%	3.98%	27.80%	-4.06%	18.05%	21.10%
ERJ	44.05	0.78	1.80%	5.36%	-0.68%	7.26%	8.02%	-12.37%	-3.93%	10.32%
UTX	79.43	0.70	0.89%	4.32%	7.64%	8.36%	26.46%	10.40%	20.02%	26.28%
HON	58.69	0.52	0.89%	3.99%	7.27%	5.05%	30.13%	4.10%	23.04%	44.77%
BA	102.59	1.34	1.32%	3.26%	8.17%	6.05%	15.05%	5.55%	12.98%	34.79%
MMM	91.68	0.24	0.26%	2.99%	3.10%	3.30%	17.15%	4.89%	19.22%	25.40%
GE	41.25	0.01	0.02%	2.23%	6.45%	5.44%	8.64%	6.31%	16.26%	19.77%
FDX	104.10	-0.35	-0.34%	-4.65%	-3.80%	-5.63%	-5.17%	-6.15%	-6.21%	-1.79%

XLI (Industrials) gained +2.76 pct this week to close at 40.63.

The US industrial-military complex all moved up for a second strong week: Boeing (BA +3.3 pct), General Electric (GE +2.2 pct), United Technologies (UTX +4.3 pct), and Honeywell (HON +4.0 pct).

Brazil’s ERJ, which a week earlier dropped -5.7 pct, was up this week +5.4 pct, and the other leaders were Swiss company ABB (+7.5 pct) and CAT, which usually tracks the miners, was up +6.8 pct (many of the miners were up from +5 pct to +13 pct).

The loser, which makes sense in a slowing economy, was Fedex (FDX -4.7 pct), closing at $104.10.

Back in Feb-Mar 2007, I had a lot to say about Fedex. Here is the stock chart, as well as some of what I had written in Feb-Mar.

FDX was grounded -0.6 pct to $105.96. Not as bad at last week’s loss of -1.6 pct, but stumbling nonetheless. Over 52-weeks, FDX has lost -1.63 pct, and that’s -9.7 pct over 6 months and -12.4 pct over three months. Not to put too fine a point on it, but FDX is -12.73 pct off its 52-week high of $121.42 on Feb 26, 2007.

FDX, btw, carries packages for business. They make money for shareholders when business is good.

Back in the early Feb 5 report, I wrote this about the Dow Transports and Fedex: “I no longer consider Dow Theory because Transports were not even part of the original theory. Also, Dow Theory was originally a technical look at the US economy. But, globalization has skewed these numbers as Fedex ($114.89) is a major Transport component but is a global concern that has benefited most from growth in the emerging economies. So, what technical analysts need now is a Dow America Theory.”

On the morning of Feb 27, when FDX hit its high ($121.42), I wrote: “US Durable Goods Orders have plummeted (-7.8 pct). Refrigerators, automobiles, industrial machinery, electrical machinery, computers, and the like are not being ordered. They are not being manufactured, and they are not being shipped – in quantities you have been led to believe. The evidence is now coming through.”

It’s been a tough 3 months for Fedex. FDX, btw, is also called a market bellwhether. M&A and the rest of the financial games that are being played under Paulson’s watch are causing you to take your eye off the ball.

In the Week #9-07 report (Mar-3), I wrote, “Fedex (FDX) is no longer “carrying the freight, flying the Transports to a new high, keeping the Bull market technically stable.” Hahaha. No sirree, FDX skid landed this week, down -7.0 pct.”

The DJIA was 12114 at the end of Week #9-07 (Mar-3), and it is now over 13800, but FDX has fallen from about 112-114 to 104. So, if you are going to trade FDX (I don’t, but I do monitor it to get a handle on the broad market), you have to watch economic data like Durable Goods Orders and the like.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was the weakest performer this week, gaining just +0.95 pct to close at 37.10. To put that into perspective, the $USD lost -1.33 pct this week, so foreign traders in Consumer Discretionary or Cons. Durables (+1.02 pct W/W), on average, blew up capital in the US this week in these sectors.

Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL +10.5 pct W/W) was the big winner. I suppose they are turning their ships into nursing homes.

My friends in Bahamas are still laughing over that slide show one of the community here sent that I posted in the blog. In fact, after hearing that, one of them bought a two-day cruise from Nassau to Ft. Lauderdale and back for just $300 last Mon-Tues. Two days of eating, drinking and being entertained all he could handle, a night in a hotel room, a Stateside visit where he picked up goods on sale that saved him much more than his $300 cost plus rental car for a few hours, and he returned with the contacts of the female crew who he says will give him all the dates he needs for the next couple months. He’s now thinking seriously about that nursing home plan.

I kid you not.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CCL	49.21	0.68	1.40%	10.48%	10.04%	9.02%	-3.42%	1.82%	3.38%	9.97%
JCP	66.48	0.05	0.08%	3.52%	2.17%	2.99%	-14.83%	-9.60%	-18.36%	-1.35%
EBAY	39.00	0.86	2.25%	3.15%	10.64%	14.03%	29.27%	25.28%	21.27%	49.54%
DIS	34.60	0.56	1.65%	3.10%	3.01%	4.34%	1.17%	1.20%	-1.62%	12.67%
TM	115.06	-0.24	-0.21%	1.66%	1.55%	-0.22%	-14.96%	-7.94%	-13.83%	6.51%
BC	22.37	0.39	1.77%	1.64%	-3.66%	-11.69%	-29.92%	-34.01%	-30.44%	-28.26%
WHR	92.21	-0.79	-0.85%	1.11%	-0.60%	-4.90%	8.92%	-19.66%	4.46%	5.95%
NKE	57.26	-1.06	-1.82%	0.05%	4.68%	5.98%	17.26%	6.87%	5.22%	38.88%
SBUX	27.47	-0.02	-0.07%	-0.62%	1.14%	-0.18%	-22.07%	4.61%	-14.87%	-19.23%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	72.46	1.22	1.71%	5.06%	10.22%	12.03%	47.58%	3.16%	33.69%	70.09%
WFMI	45.03	0.04	0.09%	3.80%	4.41%	3.90%	-0.99%	17.42%	1.81%	-24.98%
DEO	86.73	0.80	0.93%	3.16%	1.26%	6.07%	9.05%	2.99%	10.44%	20.54%
PEP	71.44	0.41	0.58%	2.70%	5.09%	5.20%	13.90%	8.44%	11.31%	10.57%
PG	69.39	0.41	0.59%	2.33%	5.99%	6.69%	7.51%	12.14%	10.21%	12.39%
MO	68.54	-0.08	-0.12%	2.25%	1.71%	-0.13%	5.58%	-0.06%	6.07%	11.47%
WMT	44.23	-0.09	-0.20%	2.10%	4.34%	2.46%	-6.98%	-8.60%	-7.41%	-8.73%
BUD	50.57	-0.17	-0.34%	0.78%	1.46%	5.35%	2.74%	-4.76%	-0.37%	6.15%
WAG	45.41	0.06	0.13%	0.29%	2.85%	1.34%	-1.43%	1.25%	-3.53%	-1.88%
KO	56.55	0.24	0.43%	0.27%	3.59%	4.76%	16.41%	8.56%	17.18%	27.94%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) gained +1.02 pct W/W to close at 27.66.

Brazil’s InBev (ABV) gained +5.1 pct W/W (and +10.2 pct over two weeks and almost +16 pct over three). ABV is now up +47.6 pct Year-To-Date (YTD) and +70.1 pct over the past 52-weeks.

That’s a lot of beer.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JNJ	65.12	0.33	0.51%	3.04%	5.58%	4.85%	-1.93%	4.85%	6.37%	1.39%
BMY	29.00	0.46	1.61%	2.18%	4.28%	0.00%	9.93%	-9.43%	4.66%	17.36%
AET	52.34	0.06	0.11%	1.67%	4.18%	5.93%	22.06%	6.02%	14.88%	35.46%
GSK	54.23	0.59	1.10%	1.54%	2.19%	5.14%	0.78%	3.79%	-3.59%	0.43%
NVS	55.10	-0.56	-1.01%	1.40%	3.18%	4.83%	-5.23%	-0.11%	-4.72%	-5.02%
PFE	24.59	0.07	0.29%	1.24%	1.40%	-0.12%	-6.47%	-5.13%	-4.87%	-12.83%
DNA	79.38	-0.17	-0.21%	0.49%	0.37%	8.27%	-2.96%	4.49%	-6.50%	1.04%
UNH	49.91	0.10	0.20%	0.00%	1.46%	2.65%	-5.06%	-3.59%	-9.30%	-0.76%
BMET	45.89	-0.06	-0.13%	-0.04%	0.07%	0.42%	10.66%	0.81%	7.52%	39.61%
AMGN	55.42	0.11	0.20%	-1.60%	8.88%	10.29%	-18.98%	-3.23%	-8.55%	-23.04%

IYH (healthcare) gained +1.55 pct W/W to close at 70.73.

After AMGN had gained +10.7 pct the previous week, the stock was down this week -1.6 pct. The sector winner this week was JNJ +3.0 pct.

You will be able to tell a market pullback when IYH starts outperforming Tech (say SMH) on a weekly basis.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	209.98	6.45	3.17%	10.17%	17.32%	18.30%	4.61%	-7.46%	-0.46%	25.62%
LEH	62.70	0.39	0.63%	5.38%	18.41%	7.77%	-20.26%	-20.87%	-15.50%	-11.90%
UBS	54.05	0.08	0.15%	4.20%	3.76%	2.95%	-11.96%	-12.19%	-10.56%	-8.17%
JPM	47.13	0.17	0.36%	3.49%	8.30%	3.20%	-1.96%	-5.44%	-3.91%	0.68%
DB	129.28	0.08	0.06%	3.34%	4.27%	4.31%	-4.48%	-13.65%	-2.89%	8.41%
CS	66.39	-0.73	-1.09%	3.07%	2.52%	0.29%	-5.31%	-9.71%	-10.09%	0.00%
HBC	92.56	0.91	0.99%	2.95%	3.98%	2.68%	-0.44%	-0.90%	5.24%	1.79%
C	47.51	0.31	0.66%	1.87%	4.46%	-1.74%	-14.01%	-11.46%	-8.69%	-4.50%
MER	74.73	-0.57	-0.76%	0.11%	2.12%	-1.53%	-20.17%	-14.40%	-12.49%	-4.01%
MS	64.44	-0.19	-0.29%	-2.53%	3.10%	0.20%	-21.05%	-26.18%	-20.77%	-10.05%

The Financial ETF (XLF) gained +2.16 pct W/W to close at 34.60.

A week ago I wrote, “(Re the expected FOMC decision to cut rates for the first time is a few years) these rate cuts do not matter unless of course you want to see a falling $USD and higher prices for Precious Metals.” Bingo.

I added, “Over the years, with globalization facilitating rapid flow of capital from one country to another, the monetary policies of any one country are not as effective as they once were. “It’s the economy, stupid” was a remarkably prescient political remark. Traders are not stupid; it’s the Administration and Fed that want you to think the economy is strong and healthy when it’s not. What’s needed is some straight talk from the leadership in America.”… “Let them have houses” seems to have been the strategy to keep the people happy, and even that was a lie, and one that Mr. Greenspan himself participated in with his ridiculously over-extended 1 pct Fed Rate… Now that the world’s mortgage bankers (Northern Rock and Countrywide are just two) have gotten bail-outs, how many more will go to their governments and central bankers for hand-outs? How bad will this situation get?... A week ago, US Treasury Secretary Paulson when interviewed by Bloomberg said, “Some organizations will fail”. Could the man not say, “some banks will fail”? Or is he guiding us to look at the solvency of pension funds, hedge funds, near-banks, broker-dealers, and all types of financial product syndicators as well as banks?... If only they hadn’t accepted Liar loan applications and had managed their lending practices with a traditional commercial banker’s prudence. But, the people in charge wanted theirs too… Sad isn’t it? It will take years to get over this mess.”

Have you noticed that after the FOMC cut rates, there was little talk of bank insolvencies. Everything is rosy. For now.

This is a key sector to watch (ie, XLF) for when the broad market in the US rolls over and starts to slide again. Forget the fact Goldman Sachs (GS +10.2 pct) had a great week. This sector is going nowhere. Ultimately the market will compensate with higher interest rates because the lower rates of the Fed and other central bankers are merely sticking fingers in the dike.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ORCL	21.98	0.93	4.44%	9.49%	9.00%	13.45%	25.50%	11.66%	20.94%	21.54%
CTSH	75.87	2.46	3.35%	5.27%	6.75%	1.77%	-2.43%	-0.82%	-18.42%	3.41%
SNDK	53.56	0.22	0.41%	4.43%	1.19%	0.83%	28.38%	10.34%	23.18%	-7.16%
INTC	25.87	0.06	0.23%	3.77%	1.57%	6.77%	27.13%	6.50%	33.76%	34.60%
QCOM	40.83	0.29	0.72%	3.55%	7.76%	7.84%	9.00%	-6.27%	-6.63%	6.11%
ADSK	48.72	-0.59	-1.20%	2.44%	7.91%	8.17%	20.12%	3.29%	22.75%	33.37%
CSCO	32.30	0.09	0.28%	2.34%	2.47%	6.71%	16.44%	18.23%	20.57%	40.50%
SAP	58.64	0.61	1.05%	2.00%	5.92%	12.17%	10.23%	14.87%	26.49%	19.62%
INFY	46.62	-0.40	-0.85%	-1.25%	-2.31%	1.37%	-16.48%	-9.98%	-13.79%	-0.38%
ADBE	41.95	-0.85	-1.99%	-3.36%	-2.35%	3.33%	5.09%	1.01%	-3.12%	12.17%

This week, SMH (semi-conductors) gained +3.88 pct to 38.58, after being the only sector on the downside a week earlier (down -1.77 pct).

The winner was Oracle (ORCL +9.5 pct W/W). The ORCL volume on Friday was 96 million shares (+222 pct average daily volume) as the stock rocketed +4.44 pct on the DAY. A tad over-enthusiastic I’d say. Yes, the 1Q earnings were terrific, and the analysts are raising their targets, but what’s next? The stock is trading at a 30 PE, which I think is too high.

Watch for the upcoming Sell Alert in the days or weeks ahead. The stock’s at $22, and moving higher, but doubts will set in and this stock will soon reach a ceiling.

Don’t you find it amazing that companies as large as Oracle and Goldman Sachs can grow their market cap +10 pct in a single week? The equity market is not working as a pricing mechanism when extreme price action like this is the norm. Red 8, black 24…

Nevertheless, sharp traders with a short time horizon can pick off +5 pct to +7 pct gains in a week or two. :-)

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) gained +3.74 pct W/W to close at 33.85. A week ago, I wrote, “Verizon (VZ +2.9 pct) and AT&T (T +4.4 pct) held the sector (and the Dow 30) up.”

This week, VZ was up +4.4 pct and T jumped +5.2 pct.

Black 8, I suppose.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

This week, XLU (Utilities) gained +1.56 pct W/W to close at 40.32. The gain was less than a week ago, and Friday produced a loss of -0.67 pct.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.62	3.66	3.84	3.45
6 Month	3.92	3.95	4.04	3.85
2 Year	4.02	4.10	4.04	4.17
3 Year	4.09	4.17	4.05	4.21
5 Year	4.29	4.36	4.17	4.37
10 Year	4.62	4.70	4.46	4.65
30 Year	4.88	4.96	4.72	4.96

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.40	3.36	3.42	3.61
2yr AAA	3.48	3.47	3.48	3.61
2yr A	3.46	3.45	3.49	3.75
5yr AAA	3.53	3.48	3.51	3.71
5yr AA	3.54	3.52	3.47	3.76
5yr A	3.75	3.70	3.74	3.93
10yr AAA	3.78	3.77	3.74	4.07
10yr AA	3.76	3.74	3.69	4.07
10yr A	3.91	3.90	3.87	4.30
20yr AAA	4.48	4.31	4.24	4.65
20yr AA	.5U	4.87	4.68	4.98
20yr A	.2	4.60	4.71	4.76

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.85	4.89	4.83	4.83
2yr A	5.08	5.04	5.04	4.90
5yr AAA	5.10	5.17	5.04	5.10
5yr AA	5.18	5.32	5.26	5.32
5yr A	5.28	5.38	5.27	5.31
10yr AAA	5.42	5.42	5.27	5.64
10yr AA	5.84	6.00	5.85	5.83
10yr A	5.89	5.98	5.81	5.83
20yr AAA	6.03	6.05	6.03	6.23
20yr AA	5.97	5.99	6.20	6.34
20yr A	6.36	6.39	6.15	6.37

The US Treasury market split in two this week. Long dated instruments dropped in price as traders got nervous about the Fed cuts, but the short dated instruments fell into line with the Fed as the price bumped up and yields fell.

The yields moved up from +16 basis points on the 30-year (to 4.88 pct) and the 10-year (to 4.62 pct) to +12 bp on the 5-year (to 4.29 pct).

Yields dropped -2 bp on the 2-year (to 4.02 pct) and, because of the surprising -50 bp cut by the FOMC in the Fed Rate and the Discount Rate, -22 bp for the 3-month T-Bills (to 3.62 pct).

Bankers, however, will keep their prime rates up, and their credit tight, and they’ll be calling in the under-performing loans, so the banks will be in better shape because of the Fed move.

Isn’t this what the FOMC decided? Ie, to protect the banks and the whole financial system that was showing stress fractures?

In any case, the Fed did not fix the problem. Pretty soon, there will be more cries from Wall Street’s Humungous Banks & Brokers for more help. Count on it.

A week ago, I stated, “I suspect that traders are preparing for a Fed rate drop, which will prop up equity prices, lower the $USD, and pump commodity prices higher, all of which increases risk and requires a higher yield on fixed-income.” This week, Crude Oil rocketed up +4.5 pct, the $CRB commodity index up +3.8 pct, Gold up +2.9 pct, Silver up +7.2 pct, and Copper up +5.9 pct. Thanks to Bernanke, consumers will have to pay for this, which makes their situation worse, not better.

Only the banks and the commodity producers got better off this week. …That plus the traders who were watching carefully! The long bond investors got taken to the cleaners, which is why I say you can’t invest in securities; you have to trade them.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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A week ago, the TLT dropped -0.43 pct W/W to close at 89.91 because traders were anticipating at least a -25 basis point cut in the Fed Rate. With this week’s -50 bp cut, the TLT crashed -2.25 pct to 87.89, which proves who Bernanke works for. He certainly doesn’t work for the widow and widower who are stuck on fixed income. At the same time their nursing home costs are skyrocketing, their asset values are dropping. They are being taxed by the throat. Meanwhile, how many billion dollars did the young suits at Goldman Sachs allocate to their bonuses?

Yes, thank you Prof. Bernanke. You really have a handle on life. NOT.

‘Moral Hazard’ is really a moral calamity. As if the people in Washington really care about social equity. They know what side of their bread is buttered.

At some point, long bonds will turn south as higher yields are required by growth in inflation. If there were somebody in the office as Labor Secretary that had an ounce of integrity, there would be calls for an examination of the methodologies used to calculate the inflation indexes (CPI and PPI). But the bias is clear cut in that higher (ie, factual) inflation rates add much cost to the old age and social security systems, which Michael Panzner (“Financial Armageddon”) says is one of the four issues that ultimately destroy the US economy.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FRE	60.35	0.46	0.77%	5.19%	1.75%	-5.76%	-11.11%	-3.78%	-3.76%	-6.07%
FNM	62.72	0.20	0.32%	2.35%	0.32%	-7.94%	4.78%	-6.85%	9.15%	17.26%
CFC	19.61	0.05	0.26%	0.98%	7.69%	-10.94%	-53.43%	-48.29%	-46.93%	-44.13%
SHY	81.18	0.20	0.25%	0.16%	-0.02%	0.26%	1.42%	1.60%	0.84%	1.12%
AGG	99.71	0.29	0.29%	-0.19%	-0.49%	0.41%	-0.20%	1.90%	-1.02%	-0.29%
TIP	101.60	0.33	0.33%	-0.59%	-0.62%	0.94%	2.39%	3.60%	0.23%	0.84%
IEF	83.43	0.42	0.51%	-1.03%	-1.72%	0.13%	0.91%	4.01%	-0.30%	0.51%
TLT	87.89	0.74	0.85%	-2.25%	-2.67%	0.48%	-1.32%	5.52%	-2.07%	-1.51%

Freddie Mac (FRE +5.2 pct) and Fannie Mae (FNM +2.4 pct) were winners this week (losers a week ago), as traders got the message that the US Admin and government have decided to hide the costs of the failed mortgage loan market.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB index gained +3.81 pct W/W to close at 333.15. There has been a succession of four W/W gains.

The 50-day Moving Average is now at 315.33 and the 200-day MA is 310.45.

Last week, I argued,

I have in the past opined, “Above 320 on the $CRB seems to be when the Fed wants to take action.” Now I am not so sure. I think the Fed has more on their mind than commodity prices. They first need to bail out the credit market. After that, it will be the equity market. Higher commodity prices will just slow the economy, and after the Fed drops rates low enough to resolve problems #1 and #2, the low rates will help resolve problem #3… So bottom line: I think energy prices are going to peak here, and the commodity price rally will slow its momentum due to a slowing economy. As for precious metals, if the other G-20 countries also cut rates, that will help the $USD so when the Fed cuts its rate, the $USD will not fall much further… The operative concept here is “all or most G-20 nations cutting rates together”. That destroys the value of all fiat money vis-à-vis precious metals (and will keep oil prices from falling too much below say $50/bbl at the bottom of the cycle.

Obviously, when I used the words “After that”, I was not referring to a one-week move, but a period of many weeks and months. But I will stick to my premise that $CRB has gone higher that 320 because the Fed has more urgent issues to consider.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

The Crude Oil futures market ($WTIC in the US for Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) gained +3.53/bbl (+4.52 pct W/W) to close at 81.62.

I am surprised at this strong move, but the Fed cut and the liquidity they pumped into the system is not going to buy long bonds or help out borrowers who are stuck with falling house prices. Some of that capital is going to hedge funds and Private Equity for use in buying shares of HB&B and hedges in the commodity markets, including oil and precious metals.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is 74.86 and the 200d MA is 65.71, so Oil is now well above both the 50d MA and 200d MA lines.

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Just a week ago I wrote, “This week, $Gold (the near futures) gained +8.10/oz (+1.14 pct) to close at 717.80. That is near the recent cycle peak (May 2006) of 730.40. A week ago, gold futures rallied +27.80/oz (+4.08 pct) to 709.70, and the two weeks before that saw a total price jump of $15.10/oz. So, a four-week gain of +$51.00/oz for gold, you’d think the stuff was 24 carat or something. LOL… I think the price of gold is going higher. I am, however, confused by the lagging price of the other precious metals, especially silver, which usually leads each rally, and palladium.”

This week, $GOLD rallied a further 21.10 (+2.94 pct W/W), and $SILVER rocketed up +0.91 (+7.20 pct). $GOLD is now at 738.90 (which is a long-term cycle high close), and the 50day MA is now 686.29 and the 200d MA is 665.15.

Onwards and upwards until it doesn’t. For clues to that watch to see if the Euro declines and the USD lifts. Watch to see a sell-off in the $XAU goldminers share index. It’s coming – I just don’t know when. Months ago, I opined it would top out at about 750 for this cycle, and then start to rally again to over $1000 in the next cycle, after central banks start talking about a new General Agreement on Currencies, and China agrees to release the tight link to the USD.

In the meantime, prices will be volatile. Further FOMC decisions to cut rates will boost gold.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +$0.91/oz (+7.20 pct) to close at 13.62.

The 50d MA is 12.7 and the 200d MA is 13.17.

A week ago, and for a couple weeks before that, I stated, “ I still believe that spot silver needs to move above the 200d MA (13.21) for any (significant) upside break-out. Do I think that’s going to happen soon? Yes… Yawn.”

The point is that I have been saying that since $SILVER had dropped to about 12, and I opined that it would soon move up to 13, 14, 15. Today. It’s almost 14. I can see a day when $SILVER is trading over 18 and possibly 20, based on $USD rates dropping further from today’s level. It’s not a case of Silver becoming more valuable, but the USD losing purchasing power. The longer the Middle East conflict is being advanced by the US Administration, inflation will continue to grow, like it did in the 1960’s and 70’s with Vietnam.

Today, the Vietnamese are friends. The priest for my son’s wedding this week is Vietnamese. This is an Irish Church, his third such posting in a row, so Father Tran likes to call himself O’Tran. :-)

Politics serves a very few, but cannot overcome ‘the People’.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

$PLAT gained +32.30/oz (+2.48 pct) to close at 1336.10.

The 50d MA is 1293.85 and the 200d MA is 1252.79.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

A week ago, I wrote, “$PALL lost -$7.05/oz (-2.07 pct W/W) to close at 333.75, which was a shock to me. A week ago, I remarked here, “Tough sledding”, so I ought to have seen it coming.”

This week, $PALL gained +8.80 (+2.64 pct) to close at 342.55.

The 50d MA is 352.06 and the 200d MA is 356.23, so this is one metal that still has not broken out. It could be an industry demand shift for the metal, something somebody wrote to me about recently. Comments welcome.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

Two weeks ago, $COPPER (near futures contracts) dropped -14.55 (-4.28 pct) to close at 325.15, and last week gained it back, up +4.34 pct to close at 339.25.

This week, $COPPER gained +20.00 (+5.90 pct) to close at 359.25.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 342.77 and the 200d MA is 319.11, so the current price (359.25) is now above both the 50d MA and 200d MA.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MDG	34.27	-0.24	-0.70%	12.66%	17.12%	35.35%	30.35%	32.06%	34.34%	40.68%
KGC	15.48	0.29	1.91%	11.45%	18.71%	35.08%	35.55%	20.84%	10.73%	31.08%
GG	30.24	-0.09	-0.30%	10.53%	16.35%	31.31%	10.61%	23.93%	23.03%	33.81%
GFI	18.09	0.09	0.50%	7.81%	11.80%	24.07%	-1.31%	8.45%	-0.71%	3.49%
ABX	40.06	-0.88	-2.15%	7.69%	9.30%	22.77%	34.29%	35.43%	37.00%	37.85%
BVN	45.88	-1.88	-3.94%	7.35%	8.18%	23.20%	66.17%	25.56%	55.10%	66.72%
AUY	12.61	-0.05	-0.39%	6.96%	7.05%	26.10%	2.27%	-1.10%	-15.20%	37.81%
NEM	47.56	-0.13	-0.27%	4.87%	7.58%	17.35%	7.60%	19.05%	7.75%	8.51%
AEM	49.81	-1.60	-3.11%	3.47%	1.26%	18.68%	27.98%	35.13%	28.97%	67.04%

This week, $XAU lifted +13.55 (+8.58 pct) to close at 171.55.

Unfortunately, it is not true I walk on water. If only. (LOL)

But a week ago, I wrote, “A week ago, $XAU jumped +10.76 (+7.64 pct) to close at 151.53, up from 140.77, so a new cycle high is close by” and I have been calling for it since this index was much lower than that. I’m glad you kept the faith because I was saying all along there was no reason for $XAU to weaken.

Even “g034” was challenging the weak hands to put up arguments as to why they would possibly sell their gold/goldminer shares during the past month.

The 50d MA is 147.34 and the 200d MA is 141.19. I don’t think the public is even involved at this point. These stocks will go much higher, but watch the spec companies (ie, the explorers) and the ones like Western Goldfields that are ramping up new production.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The $USD, which is a trade-weighted index we used to call the Morgan Dollar, lost a further -1.06 (-1.33 pct) to close at 78.59. This chart looks like a train track into the ocean. Nobody knows how far it can go down.

The following data is a simulation of the M3 as of the past week.

US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates. They have no option under the circumstances. The economy is relatively strong, but the credit markets are imploding.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

The Euro ($XEU) gained +2.14 (+1.54 pct W/W) to close at 140.88.

Three weeks ago, at 136.39, I opined, “I still think we’ll see a 140 handle inside 60 days.” Bingo.

The 50d MA is 137.24 and the 200d MA is 134.10.

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

A week ago, I wrote, “the Pound sterling lost -1.74 (-0.86 pct W/W) to close at 201.08. The problem is that the Bank of England had to bail out one of the largest banks in the country. Traders are nervous now.”

This week, the Pound gained +0.99 (+0.49 pct) to close at 202.07.

The 50d MA is 202.19 and the 200d MA is 198.46. The recent high was 203.51.

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -0.12 (-0.14 pct W/W) to close at 86.71. The irony is that the Yen decline is good for the exporters and the equity market in Tokyo (and elsewhere).

The 50d MA is 85.35 and the 200d MA is 83.89.

Two weeks ago, I wrote in this space, “The winding up of Japanese Carry Trades is pushing the Yen up (stronger) too quickly, I feel. The domestic economy is under pressure. I feel the Japanese will start to relieve the pressure, which will help US Treasury prices and equity market prices soon.” Bingo.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

A week ago, the Canadian Dollar ($CDW) gained +2.31 (+2.43 pct W/W) to close at 97.19.

This week, the Loonie gained +2.85 (+2.93 pct) to close at 100.04. Parity with the USD. Heaven help Canada’s exporters and in-bound tourism industries if the Loonie gets stronger.

Four weeks ago, at 95.02, I opined that $CDW was “looking like lift-off is set to occur.” Then three weeks ago, I opined, “Not much has happened because the Bank of Canada is resisting the stronger Cdn Dollar… I still think there is a positive bias despite credit market issues and solvency problems with Coventree, and the Central Bank’s short-term relief.”

Last week, I wrote, “I think 97.19 is close to lift-off. But much higher and cross-border trade will slow to a walk, and the tourist trade will reverse from northbound to southbound.” America now buys more goods from China. Amazing.

The 50d MA is 95.36 and the 200d MA is 90.18.

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International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Confidence really jumped after the FOMC decision. The Bovespa rallied to 57798.8 by the end of the week, close to a record.

The high of 58293 was set less than two months ago.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

The index closed at 13940. The all-time record high was 14646.8 about nine weeks ago.

As I stated two weeks ago, “because Canada is a natural-resource based economy, which is in favor presently (and probably for the next five to ten years), I think the 14646 record will be beaten within the next 60 days, and will out-perform the US equity markets for several years… But in the near-term, I’m not so sure the Canadian economy will prosper (as it has til now) with a too-high Canadian Dollar (almost par with the USD today) and a neighboring US economy that may slow down rapidly in the 3rd and 4th quarter. So, I happen to think the Asia-Pacific market has better growth prospects than Canada… Where Canada excels is in the junior resource sectors (energy and mining in particular), with excellent research. The penny dreadfuls on the Toronto Venture market are heavily regulated, which gives the punters a fair shot if you pick the best quality jockeys (which doesn’t mean the ones that are hyped the most in newsletters and at investor conferences).

Btw, I’ll be attending the Cambridge Gold Show in Toronto Oct 21-22. Apparently, Jock is coming up from St. Louis again. We’ll have to have a hospitality suite in my room at the InterContinental!

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Europe was mostly green arrows Friday. Let’s see what next week brings.

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Asia-Pacific

The indexes of the Asia-Pacific equity markets are just opening tonight (Sunday 6:30 pm ET).

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow this week was stronger at 16312.7.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

This week, the Singapore STI was basically flat, closing at 3542.

The record high is nearby at 3688.58, which was set in July.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CAT	78.16	0.79	1.02%	6.83%	6.43%	3.98%	27.80%	-4.06%	18.05%	21.10%
AA	37.40	0.12	0.32%	5.41%	7.26%	4.56%	27.51%	-7.29%	10.49%	35.16%
T	42.53	0.50	1.19%	5.17%	9.81%	6.06%	21.69%	7.43%	9.44%	31.75%
MRK	51.82	0.44	0.86%	4.60%	4.54%	2.61%	17.72%	5.11%	17.11%	23.53%
HPQ	50.53	0.43	0.86%	4.44%	3.44%	6.04%	21.41%	11.05%	25.73%	44.91%
VZ	44.38	0.58	1.32%	4.37%	7.35%	5.29%	17.35%	4.57%	17.78%	20.27%
UTX	79.43	0.70	0.89%	4.32%	7.64%	8.36%	26.46%	10.40%	20.02%	26.28%
XOM	92.31	0.22	0.24%	4.11%	7.65%	10.22%	24.56%	9.50%	26.05%	42.50%
HON	58.69	0.52	0.89%	3.99%	7.27%	5.05%	30.13%	4.10%	23.04%	44.77%
INTC	25.87	0.06	0.23%	3.77%	1.57%	6.77%	27.13%	6.50%	33.76%	34.60%
AIG	67.23	0.09	0.13%	3.49%	5.79%	0.22%	-6.82%	-6.69%	-2.13%	2.81%
JPM	47.13	0.17	0.36%	3.49%	8.30%	3.20%	-1.96%	-5.44%	-3.91%	0.68%
DD	49.69	-0.21	-0.42%	3.43%	4.61%	1.53%	1.33%	-4.90%	-3.14%	17.64%
BA	102.59	1.34	1.32%	3.26%	8.17%	6.05%	15.05%	5.55%	12.98%	34.79%
DIS	34.60	0.56	1.65%	3.10%	3.01%	4.34%	1.17%	1.20%	-1.62%	12.67%
JNJ	65.12	0.33	0.51%	3.04%	5.58%	4.85%	-1.93%	4.85%	6.37%	1.39%
MMM	91.68	0.24	0.26%	2.99%	3.10%	3.30%	17.15%	4.89%	19.22%	25.40%
PG	69.39	0.41	0.59%	2.33%	5.99%	6.69%	7.51%	12.14%	10.21%	12.39%
MO	68.54	-0.08	-0.12%	2.25%	1.71%	-0.13%	5.58%	-0.06%	6.07%	11.47%
GE	41.25	0.01	0.02%	2.23%	6.45%	5.44%	8.64%	6.31%	16.26%	19.77%
GM	34.94	0.47	1.36%	2.10%	18.24%	13.63%	18.64%	-2.84%	16.58%	12.86%
WMT	44.23	-0.09	-0.20%	2.10%	4.34%	2.46%	-6.98%	-8.60%	-7.41%	-8.73%
C	47.51	0.31	0.66%	1.87%	4.46%	-1.74%	-14.01%	-11.46%	-8.69%	-4.50%
IBM	116.78	-0.08	-0.07%	1.43%	1.06%	4.78%	20.06%	9.55%	22.46%	43.10%
PFE	24.59	0.07	0.29%	1.24%	1.40%	-0.12%	-6.47%	-5.13%	-4.87%	-12.83%
AXP	59.28	-0.84	-1.40%	0.58%	2.65%	-1.25%	-1.79%	-5.39%	3.11%	9.29%
KO	56.55	0.24	0.43%	0.27%	3.59%	4.76%	16.41%	8.56%	17.18%	27.94%
MCD	54.80	-0.07	-0.13%	-1.17%	11.29%	9.93%	24.91%	7.30%	22.84%	42.93%
MSFT	28.65	0.23	0.81%	-1.34%	0.74%	1.24%	-4.05%	-5.20%	0.46%	6.58%
HD	34.47	-0.85	-2.41%	-3.39%	0.76%	1.32%	-16.07%	-13.72%	-11.02%	-3.85%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The Value Line report last week was on (Cara 100) ExxonMobil (XOM).

Clearly, the Value Line analyst Robert Mitkowski, Jr is calling for a near-term peak in the XOM share price, and I concur. Mitkowski is looking for a low of nil and a high of +5 pct annual Total Return (price appreciation plus dividend) through 2010-2012. That is not enough to provide you happy returns.

(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 14: next one is due Dec. 14)

As I pointed out a week ago, “the economy is not healthy and is slowing. The USD is so low that commodity prices are too high, and not sustainable (with the lousy economic conditions), so Crude Oil is likely to trade down from the recent $80/bbl level. The trading range of 65-75 is more likely, which means that top-line revenue in a slowing economy is going to come in at say -$10/bbl lower than today’s price, and costs are rising quickly. So margins will have to fall unless the company can squeeze out productivity gains of some kind.”

XOM closed this week at 92.31, which is a bump of +4.11 pct W/W. The near record intra-day high of 93.40 was hit on Friday. I hope you go back to observe the Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 values through the past couple months, and see the Distribution Zone and Sell Alert signals.

I’ll help. On July 23, XOM closed with a record high of 93.44. The M-W-D RSI-7 was on that day 87.00/81.26/80.14. The next day the price dropped to 90.84 on considerably higher volume. On July 25, the M-W-D RSI-7 hit 87.84/77.38/65.53 as the price closed at 92.79.

That was the Sell Alert (Daily RSI-7 falling below 70), with the close at 92.79. By August 16, the XOM price fell to a close of 78.76.

By the close this week, Sept 14, Crude Oil was trading up close to $80/bbl, and XOM closed at 88.67. This rally has presented yet another opportunity to get out at or near the cycle top, for the next couple of years. Today, the M-W-D RSI-7 (unsmoothed) for XOM is 87.8/73.4/81.4. A week ago it was 85.0/64.6/67.5.

If you don’t wish to exit XOM or buy puts to protect your gains, then you are betting that Crude Oil is going to be a new trading range of 85-95. Again, I say, if that were to happen, where would the US Retailers be? Where would the global economy be?

In addition to an international housing and mortgage industry crisis, a credit market crisis, and massive budgetary spending and trade deficits of the US, there is only so much financial pain the world can take. The economy is now slowing. Long-term, Crude Oil prices can only go south, in my view. The trading indicators for XOM (and CVX, which is even more so the case that a top is in place) are telling me that the market for the GICS 10 Energy sector has peaked, and gains must be taken or protected, if they are not already.

ExxonMobil will always remain a Cara 100 Global Best 100 Company for much the reason that Value Line says: “They earned their respect.” But that’s the difference between a company and its stock. Share prices move up and down. Regardless of the quality of the company, I won’t respect myself (as a successful trader) tomorrow if I don’t take my profits today.

A week ago I wrote, “For proof of concept, I only have to point out the writing I did in 1999-2000 with regard to General Electric, when GE hit a record high $60.50 in August 2000. I urged traders to sell at over $50. Subsequently, following the $60 peak, it took a long time to recover from the $21.30 low in October 2002 to the high this month (five years later) of $40.80. Will GE ever get back to $60.50? -- Maybe not in the lifetime of some of the people in this community.”

I say the same thing about a high of $93.44 for XOM, and Value Line concurs. Check their report of a week ago and see that out to 2012, they project annual returns, including dividends ($1.40 or about +1.60 pct p.a. at today’s price) of nil to +5 pct.

But let’s say that XOM, by 2012, goes to $100 and the annual dividend goes to $1.50, $1.60, $1.75, $1.85, $2.00 for the next five years. Going long at $88.67 (today’s price), that’s a 5-year gain of $8.60 in dividends plus $7.69 in price appreciation, for a total of say $16.30 returned on $92.31. That is just about +17.7 pct over five years. That is simply not enough to make you want to buy today with the risks that Crude Oil might fall as the $USD strengthens.

And if you think the XOM price is going to exceed $100 any time soon, look again at the Value Line earnings projections for XOM. The 2008e (estimated) is just $6.50, which is less than 2007e $6.80 or 2006a (actual) of $6.50.

The market sometimes prices a stock higher on lower earnings, but that would require much lower inflation and interest rates. Don’t bet on it on a PE multiple expansion.

In a serious Bear, or with oil prices back to $50/bbl o $55/bbl, you may see this stock back at $60. Whatever happens, I will not be interested in buying XOM until the stock is back in the Cara Accumulation Zone, with a subsequent Buy Alert.

Remember, the Sell Alert here does not come until the Daily RSI-7 drops below the 70 line.

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The Value Line report this week is on (Cara 100) Boeing (BA).

(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 21: next one is due Dec. 21)

Value Line analyst Morton Siegel lowered the Technical rating on BA from a 2 to a 3 on Sept 7, citing “The share price now discounts much of the strong earnings growth we foresee by 2010-2012.” I concur. The stock (102.59) gave us a Sell Alert in late July at about 103-104 before spiking down to about 90, and then recovering.

The recent rally caused by the FOMC rate cut has weakened the USD, causing easier selling conditions for buyers in many countries. The problem there is that the manufacturing slots for the 787 is full up for several years, and the order book early this month reached 706, which is a record for a plane that is still 9 to 10 months from delivery #1.

(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)

I emphasize the quality of management in the Cara 100 selections. When Boeing CEO James McNerney was CEO of 3M (MMM) that company was a Cara 100. After McNerney switched employers to Boeing, I switched my Cara 100 selection to follow him.

As long-time readers know, there was a time under ex-CEO Harry Stonecipher, I would not go near the company. McNerney, however, makes things work about as well as anybody can do in such a huge corporation.

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 21: next one is due Dec. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 14: next one is due Dec. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

---

Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

---

Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

---

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

---

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

---

Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

---

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

---

3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

---

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

---

United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

---

Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

---

Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug 10: next one is due Nov 9)

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Wrap up:

Back in Toronto, I am spending more time looking at the moonlight over Lake Ontario and the ducks and geese on the water. The leaves are starting to turn red. I am not ready for this weather!

Can’t wait to return to Nassau.

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