For an early look, to help you set up for Monday, look at the Yen:Dollar trade. If the Yen is strengthening, then that is a bearish sign for US equities and the market direction for Monday also be seen in the European equities after the open there.

A higher Yen reflects a further unwinding of the Japanese Carry Trade that has boosted US equity prices since May 2006, when I suspected the 2002-2006 Bull market was over. But the Yen continued to lose ground – until June of this year. That’s when the fireworks started in the US and European hedge funds too, and positions were being unwound and debts repaid as and when the failed sub-prime market started to show the cracks in the entire credit market system. Since then the Yen has been on a tear (+10 pct) from 80 to 88.

So, if the Yen weakens a bit against the USD, I expect to see US and European equity prices rebound.

Gold traders need to be watching the Euro:Dollar trade. If the Euro (now at 137.71) rallies to 140-plus, gold prices will continue to escalate. But when the Euro begins to weaken, that means the ECB is selling gold and also printing money to buy USD and US Treasuries. This is the Euro Carry Trade, where it pays to borrow in Euro and buy US Treasuries.

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The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Friday session Cara 100 gainers.

There is a problem with the CSCO data.

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Here are Cara 100 losers on Friday.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Friday session.

The volume is extremely low, so I tend to ignore the DJIA loss of -249 points on Friday. I expect volume will pick up next week (post vacation period) and will give us an indication where the markets are headed.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes. Very few stocks on Friday had an increase of more than +25 pct of the average daily volume, which I believe is a 50-day (10-week) average.

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Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

The folks at KNOBIAS, Inc provided the Cara 100 watchlists.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

Here are the charts of up to a dozen stocks with RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from Friday. The market has gone quiet as to volatility, on low volume, prior to the holiday long weekend.

RSI > 70 (3)

RSI < 30 (4)

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(When available) Here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for Friday:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”. You can be whip-sawed easier with unsmoothed data, but in any period where volatility is low, the unsmoothed RSI technical indicator system is a more useful one, I find. If I believe in a Buy decision say, then I want to have a reference point continuum that is going to give me a decision support signal just a bit ahead of other traders, which I can do with unsmoothed data.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

Weekly Impulse Report

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices now stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (at what rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

This week saw 12 GREEN industries, and 1 RED (compared to 14 GREEN industries, and 1 RED last week). Energy, health services, and computer software/services all strengthened from neutral to GREEN.

Although post-labour-day trading resumed, volume was down in 6 major industry groups: health services, leisure, tobacco, real estate, materials&construction, and utilities.

Of the Cara 100 components, 32 are green (last week: 32) , 29 red (last week: 17). TEK is RED but does not appear below for lack of historical trading data:

The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):

The DJIA moved from green to RED. The following indices themselves stayed GREEN this week: NDX, and Nasdaq Comp. The S&P500 moved from green to NEUTRAL. The Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500 stayed NEUTRAL THIS WEEK.

The US dollar index moved from neutral to RED, and the CRB commodity index changed from RED to GREEN. GOLD stocks moved from neutral to GREEN, while SILVER stocks moved from red to NEUTRAL.

Bottom line: the broad stock market weakened, largely because of the reaction to Friday’s jobs report. Moves spanning the week in other markets: downwards in the dollar index – to multi-year lows below the key psychological level of 80 – and correspondingly upwards in gold stocks suggest that a “moment of truth” is finally approaching. While S&P 500 now sits where it did in mid-February, it now seems destined to move decisively.

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week

I think all was fine with the econ data until Friday morning when a negative US Jobs Report was the first month showing declining jobs since April 2003.

I am suspicious that maybe the Labor Dept was giving the Fed/Treasury some room to maneuver. The Fed wants to lower rates, probably three times in the balance of the year in order to keep the economy churning along with no recession on the watch of the current US president. But, I’m not going to make a federal case out of it. Let’s wait to see what the numbers (and prior period adjustments) are next month.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

On Friday, the DJIA lost -249 points (-1.91 pct) to close at 13113.

As I have written previously, the first test will be the resistance to be encountered at the 50-day Moving Averages, which are shown as lines on these charts. When the price is below the MA, there will be resistance crossing it, and when the current price is above the MA, there is technical support there.

In any case, the longer-term 200-d MA is much more significant than the 50-d MA.

The DJIA could not yet get up through the resistance, but the Nasdaq Composit index did, which prompted me to say that Tech was going to lead the market recovery from the recent sell-off. Now both the Dow and Nasdaq are showing weakness here at this critical technical resistance point.

Next week will have to show a big move north, in the Techs, Oils, Metals, Industrials and perhaps Consumer Discretionary sectors, for the broad market indexes to cross the technical lines of resistance.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

On Friday, the Nasdaq lost -48.6 points (-1.89 pct) to close at 2565.7.

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (ie, $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWZ	61.04	-1.56	-2.49%	2.92%	5.70%	0.23%	30.71%	8.59%	35.77%	57.32%
EWC	29.97	-0.27	-0.89%	1.87%	1.66%	2.32%	21.34%	2.18%	19.07%	23.64%
EWU	24.57	-0.43	-1.72%	1.61%	1.74%	-0.61%	4.33%	-0.32%	6.97%	13.86%
IFN	46.01	-1.07	-2.27%	1.52%	5.87%	-0.09%	1.48%	13.02%	20.95%	20.45%
FXI	146.78	-4.12	-2.73%	0.52%	6.25%	12.25%	26.10%	30.34%	53.84%	86.27%
IEV	111.60	-1.64	-1.45%	0.13%	0.48%	-0.49%	5.68%	-1.36%	8.39%	19.01%
SPY	146.15	-1.98	-1.34%	0.00%	-0.25%	0.52%	3.38%	-1.98%	4.72%	12.50%
QQQQ	48.23	-0.91	-1.85%	-0.21%	1.47%	1.09%	11.54%	4.08%	13.00%	25.31%
EWJ	13.64	-0.09	-0.66%	-0.94%	-1.87%	-3.40%	-3.94%	-6.51%	-6.25%	-0.44%
TRF	60.40	-2.08	-3.33%	-1.52%	-0.79%	-6.11%	-31.79%	-4.52%	-10.60%	-11.48%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the equity market.

This week it was a case of five sector ETFs up and five down.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	70.26	-1.54	-2.14%	1.97%	3.78%	4.31%	24.18%	3.87%	22.94%	26.94%
SMH	37.81	-0.91	-2.35%	1.10%	1.56%	0.56%	12.63%	5.94%	11.96%	15.24%
XLU	39.02	-0.42	-1.06%	0.98%	-1.01%	-1.71%	5.98%	0.18%	2.52%	13.60%
IYH	68.56	-0.82	-1.18%	0.51%	0.63%	1.26%	3.16%	-2.48%	3.64%	6.97%
XLB	38.77	-0.75	-1.90%	0.05%	0.70%	-0.97%	12.02%	-2.19%	6.19%	22.57%
XLI	38.71	-0.78	-1.98%	-0.31%	-0.39%	-0.69%	9.88%	1.71%	10.57%	20.48%
XLP	26.74	-0.23	-0.85%	-0.34%	-0.52%	-1.87%	1.75%	-2.05%	3.24%	5.23%
XLF	33.00	-0.43	-1.29%	-1.05%	-4.21%	-1.49%	-10.62%	-10.30%	-6.94%	-0.81%
IYZ	32.53	-0.62	-1.87%	-1.24%	-0.88%	1.56%	9.68%	-3.07%	9.09%	21.43%
XLY	35.93	-0.90	-2.44%	-1.62%	-1.37%	-1.62%	-6.72%	-7.71%	-5.15%	8.91%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Energy (XLE) was the #1 performer on the week (+1.97 pct, closing at 70.26). There was a loss of -2.14 pct on Friday.

PBR (+8.2 pct) and STO (+7.2 pct) were very strong. All ten of the watchlist (energy) were up W/W.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	64.14	-1.19	-1.82%	8.18%	11.80%	3.60%	28.72%	20.32%	46.40%	49.34%
STO	30.25	-0.42	-1.37%	7.23%	9.60%	9.40%	17.75%	10.97%	21.00%	16.12%
IMO	44.84	-0.21	-0.47%	4.96%	5.75%	5.75%	25.74%	-2.07%	26.20%	28.70%
SU	90.98	-1.64	-1.77%	4.33%	6.10%	1.52%	23.10%	4.86%	30.62%	20.97%
CEO	122.13	-0.81	-0.66%	4.30%	6.20%	8.39%	29.55%	18.72%	50.57%	47.41%
TOT	75.30	-1.02	-1.34%	2.16%	3.89%	2.03%	6.10%	1.73%	13.99%	15.86%
ECA	59.01	-0.86	-1.44%	1.65%	0.44%	-0.59%	30.15%	-5.17%	24.81%	15.77%
CVX	87.65	-1.28	-1.44%	0.53%	2.54%	8.06%	23.50%	9.29%	28.27%	34.02%
XOM	85.75	-1.74	-1.99%	0.41%	2.39%	2.57%	15.71%	4.62%	19.70%	26.68%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) was almost flat on the week, but lost -1.90 pct on Friday to close at 38.77.

Rio Tinto Mining (RTP +11.5 pct) and CVRD (RIO +5.7 pct) were very strong. Alcoa (AA) was weak.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RTP	294.75	-6.77	-2.25%	11.48%	12.67%	15.05%	44.41%	6.64%	40.76%	45.30%
RIO	50.68	-1.40	-2.69%	5.65%	12.57%	8.11%	75.85%	17.45%	47.88%	133.23%
NUE	53.87	-1.56	-2.81%	3.84%	4.54%	2.41%	-1.16%	-16.87%	-10.14%	8.26%
BHP	64.18	-2.01	-3.04%	3.83%	5.28%	5.91%	65.11%	17.20%	50.76%	55.81%
GGB	23.54	-0.53	-2.20%	2.71%	4.21%	-3.88%	43.36%	4.90%	43.36%	60.79%
PKX	150.86	-6.83	-4.33%	1.87%	9.24%	10.08%	89.93%	25.50%	60.03%	142.15%
MT	63.98	-1.99	-3.02%	-0.73%	7.35%	6.94%	56.81%	5.93%	24.14%	90.99%
TCK	40.65	-1.39	-3.31%	-0.93%	-3.65%	0.74%	-41.30%	-2.70%	-40.17%	-40.62%
TS	45.18	-0.79	-1.72%	-2.98%	-3.34%	-7.49%	-6.88%	-2.40%	2.06%	23.07%
AA	34.87	-1.63	-4.47%	-3.54%	-2.52%	-1.61%	18.89%	-10.43%	7.66%	20.62%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GE	38.75	-0.65	-1.65%	0.91%	-0.95%	-0.49%	2.05%	5.41%	12.88%	13.84%
ERJ	44.35	-1.48	-3.23%	0.84%	7.99%	-9.56%	8.75%	-6.83%	-1.53%	10.35%
UTX	73.79	-1.22	-1.63%	-0.07%	0.67%	1.96%	17.48%	7.14%	14.83%	17.56%
MMM	88.92	-1.71	-1.89%	-0.49%	0.19%	2.37%	13.62%	4.76%	20.49%	25.97%
FDX	108.21	-1.96	-1.78%	-0.70%	-1.90%	-1.18%	-1.42%	0.75%	-3.68%	7.67%
CAT	73.44	-2.31	-3.05%	-1.63%	-2.30%	-6.42%	20.08%	-5.01%	14.34%	8.38%
BA	94.84	-1.36	-1.41%	-2.08%	-1.96%	-3.52%	6.36%	-2.07%	6.91%	30.15%
HON	54.71	-1.95	-3.44%	-2.81%	-2.08%	-3.65%	21.31%	-3.00%	17.43%	42.66%
ABB	23.18	-0.80	-3.34%	-3.62%	0.56%	0.30%	30.08%	10.91%	41.86%	75.08%

XLI was down this week -0.31 pct, but lost -1.98 pct on Friday alone, to close at 38.71.

ABB lost -3.6 pct W/W. GE gained +0.9 pct.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was the worst performer, down -1.62 pct W/W to close at 35.93.

EBAY was the big winner (+4.9 pct) and BC (-6.7 pct). Brunswick does make a mass market boat in several makes and models, like SeaRay. This would be a tough time to finance these boats costing $100,000 to $1 million.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	35.25	-0.49	-1.37%	4.91%	3.07%	-3.66%	16.84%	15.16%	13.60%	28.04%
DIS	33.59	-0.82	-2.38%	0.36%	1.30%	1.79%	-1.78%	-1.96%	-2.44%	13.90%
TM	113.30	-2.18	-1.89%	0.01%	-1.74%	-5.42%	-16.26%	-7.98%	-14.76%	6.73%
CCL	44.72	-1.44	-3.12%	-0.62%	-0.93%	-5.65%	-12.23%	-8.60%	-1.63%	6.22%
SBUX	27.16	-0.42	-1.52%	-0.69%	-1.31%	-3.17%	-22.95%	-1.02%	-10.86%	-12.72%
JCP	65.07	-0.95	-1.44%	-1.39%	0.81%	-0.35%	-16.64%	-16.35%	-16.20%	1.94%
NKE	54.70	-1.10	-1.97%	-1.90%	1.24%	1.48%	12.02%	1.11%	4.61%	35.77%
WHR	92.77	-3.30	-3.43%	-2.50%	-4.32%	-4.14%	9.58%	-13.81%	5.16%	15.98%
BC	23.22	-0.80	-3.33%	-6.67%	-8.33%	-10.00%	-27.26%	-29.85%	-29.42%	-19.63%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BUD	49.84	0.14	0.28%	2.98%	3.83%	2.76%	1.26%	-4.76%	1.67%	5.30%
DEO	85.65	-0.17	-0.20%	2.39%	4.75%	3.97%	7.70%	3.49%	12.37%	21.39%
KO	54.59	-0.07	-0.13%	2.23%	1.13%	-2.26%	12.37%	6.25%	16.77%	22.70%
PG	65.47	-0.64	-0.97%	0.71%	0.66%	0.77%	1.44%	5.05%	5.46%	6.40%
PEP	67.98	-0.58	-0.85%	0.18%	0.10%	-0.76%	8.39%	2.46%	8.33%	5.85%
WAG	44.15	-0.93	-2.06%	-1.05%	-1.47%	-6.34%	-4.17%	0.46%	0.23%	-12.14%
WMT	42.39	-0.37	-0.87%	-2.15%	-1.81%	-8.74%	-10.85%	-14.81%	-11.56%	-6.92%
WFMI	43.13	-0.08	-0.19%	-2.31%	-0.48%	-3.84%	-5.17%	10.62%	-6.50%	-17.53%
ABV	65.74	-2.42	-3.55%	-2.49%	1.64%	0.37%	33.89%	-0.63%	29.03%	50.23%
MO	67.39	-0.88	-1.29%	-2.69%	-1.81%	-0.41%	3.80%	-3.11%	5.54%	9.40%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) lost -0.34 pct W/W, including -0.85 pct on Friday to close at 26.74.

BUD (+3.0 pct W/W) and DEO (+2.4 pct) were the gainers.

A week ago, InBev (ABV +5.0 pct) and Diageo were also strong (DEO +2.7 pct).

Traders like the booze business during tough times.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DNA	79.09	0.09	0.11%	7.56%	7.87%	7.66%	-3.31%	5.59%	-3.30%	-3.64%
GSK	53.07	-0.39	-0.73%	3.61%	2.89%	1.18%	-1.38%	3.37%	-3.63%	-3.09%
NVS	53.40	0.07	0.13%	2.24%	1.60%	-2.75%	-8.15%	-3.47%	-5.52%	-4.34%
AMGN	50.90	-1.11	-2.13%	1.64%	1.29%	-0.18%	-25.58%	-10.13%	-17.93%	-25.51%
UNH	49.19	-0.41	-0.83%	0.29%	1.17%	6.17%	-6.43%	-7.81%	-8.57%	-2.03%
JNJ	61.68	0.02	0.03%	0.13%	-0.69%	1.40%	-7.11%	-0.52%	-0.29%	-2.80%
BMET	45.86	0.08	0.17%	0.07%	0.35%	0.55%	10.59%	0.66%	8.85%	41.72%
AET	50.24	-0.98	-1.91%	-0.46%	1.68%	7.01%	17.16%	-2.26%	13.43%	41.12%
PFE	24.25	-0.37	-1.50%	-1.22%	-1.50%	0.46%	-7.76%	-7.76%	-4.04%	-11.66%
BMY	27.81	-0.86	-3.00%	-3.44%	-4.10%	-1.31%	5.42%	-4.66%	2.54%	22.46%

IYH (healthcare) was flat W/W to close at 68.56. On Friday it lost -0.82 pct.

DNA gained +7.9 pct and BMY on a downgrade was down (-3.4 pct) on the week.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	178.98	-0.20	-0.11%	4.43%	0.83%	-1.79%	-10.83%	-18.66%	-8.49%	20.47%
MS	62.50	0.00	0.00%	3.89%	-2.81%	1.12%	-23.43%	-26.24%	-15.41%	-5.25%
DB	123.99	-2.50	-1.98%	1.97%	0.04%	-7.09%	-8.39%	-12.84%	-2.77%	10.16%
MER	73.18	-0.54	-0.73%	1.39%	-3.57%	-2.01%	-21.82%	-16.14%	-10.98%	-0.07%
UBS	52.09	-0.40	-0.76%	1.03%	-0.78%	-5.79%	-15.15%	-14.70%	-10.76%	-7.58%
CS	64.76	-1.24	-1.88%	0.17%	-2.18%	-5.74%	-7.63%	-10.43%	-7.92%	0.00%
HBC	89.02	-0.96	-1.07%	-0.08%	-1.24%	-2.53%	-4.25%	-2.82%	1.80%	-0.34%
JPM	43.52	-0.69	-1.56%	-1.02%	-4.71%	-1.47%	-9.47%	-12.65%	-10.01%	-3.72%
LEH	52.95	-0.88	-1.63%	-1.53%	-8.99%	-11.97%	-32.66%	-27.75%	-28.35%	-19.06%
C	45.48	-0.18	-0.39%	-1.62%	-5.94%	-3.03%	-17.68%	-13.40%	-9.44%	-6.32%

The Financial ETF (XLF) was down (-1.05 pct W/W) to close at 33.00.

GS and MS were strongest, and C weakest, but the markets were tight, even on a bad day Friday. That might portend a rally next week in this sector. Could that be tied to a Fed rate cut??

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SAP	55.36	-0.19	-0.34%	4.91%	5.89%	1.56%	4.06%	15.69%	20.82%	19.67%
INFY	47.72	-1.30	-2.65%	2.76%	3.76%	-3.20%	-14.51%	0.48%	-9.16%	7.72%
ADBE	42.96	-0.76	-1.74%	1.75%	5.81%	5.42%	7.62%	0.56%	10.89%	36.38%
INTC	25.47	-0.68	-2.60%	0.75%	5.12%	6.48%	25.16%	19.52%	33.21%	32.73%
CSCO	31.52	-0.32	-1.01%	0.29%	4.13%	0.38%	13.63%	21.93%	21.84%	46.33%
ORCL	20.16	-0.38	-1.85%	-0.25%	4.08%	0.35%	15.13%	7.63%	22.26%	25.92%
ADSK	45.15	-1.57	-3.36%	-0.55%	0.24%	3.48%	11.32%	3.39%	15.98%	43.42%
CTSH	71.07	-1.03	-1.43%	-1.20%	-4.67%	-16.51%	-8.60%	-5.18%	-20.78%	3.06%
QCOM	37.89	-0.93	-2.40%	-3.05%	0.08%	-0.86%	1.15%	-7.63%	-4.54%	2.49%
SNDK	52.93	-2.80	-5.02%	-3.17%	-0.36%	-6.25%	26.87%	23.32%	36.59%	-3.64%

SMH (semi-conductors) was flat W/W to close at 37.81, but was down on Friday by -2.35 pct in the broad market sell-off.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) lost -1.24 pct W/W to close at 32.53. Verizon (VZ -1.41 pct) and AT&T (T -2.59 pct) held the sector back. These stocks were down on Friday by -2.18 pct and -2.54 pct respectively, which dropped the IYZ -1.87 pct on Friday.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

This week, XLU (Utilities) gained +0.98 pct W/W to close at 39.02.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.89	4.15	3.92	4.79
6 Month	3.99	4.20	4.03	4.80
2 Year	3.89	4.08	4.12	4.65
3 Year	3.91	4.08	4.15	4.65
5 Year	4.03	4.21	4.24	4.72
10 Year	4.38	4.51	4.53	4.88
30 Year	4.69	4.79	4.82	5.04

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.54	3.59	3.61	3.68
2yr AAA	3.56	3.60	3.50	3.63
2yr A	3.62	3.66	3.56	3.70
5yr AAA	3.61	3.56	3.62	3.71
5yr AA	3.50	3.53	3.70	3.77
5yr A	3.83	3.78	3.84	4.08
10yr AAA	3.57	3.88	4.44	3.97
10yr AA	3.50	3.80	4.44	3.96
10yr A	3.80	4.10	4.67	4.09
20yr AAA	.O.FINANCE.BONDRATES.PRODUCTION	4.62	4.48	4.60
20yr AA	U@	4.36	38	3.83
20yr A	6U	4.32	.65	3.91

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.78	4.90	4.97	5.20
2yr A	4.99	5.01	5.00	5.23
5yr AAA	4.92	5.07	5.10	5.39
5yr AA	5.20	5.31	5.35	5.56
5yr A	5.07	5.26	5.26	5.60
10yr AAA	5.28	5.51	5.67	6.00
10yr AA	5.81	5.92	5.89	5.87
10yr A	5.87	5.96	6.02	6.12
20yr AAA	6.05	6.18	6.19	6.21
20yr AA	6.16	6.29	6.30	6.32
20yr A	6.19	6.32	6.33	6.35

US Treasury yields moved down across the time horizon from -13 basis points on the 30-year, -15bp on the 10-year, -21bp on the 5-year, -23bp on the 2-year and -3bp on the 30-day T-Bills.

The yields are now 4.69 pct for the 30-year, 4.38 for the 10-year (Bill Gross is finally right, two years later), 4.03 for the 5-year, 3.89 pct for 2-year and 3.89 pct for the 30-day T-Bills.

This is a flight to safety, following a pullback in equity prices that dropped the DJIA -249 points on Friday. Most of the gains were made on Friday. For example the Lehman 20-year US Treasuries (TLT) gained +1.70 pct W/W to close at 90.30, but on Friday alone the gain was +1.42 pct.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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This week saw a huge bump in the TLT (+1.70 pct W/W) to close at 90.30.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	90.30	1.26	1.42%	1.70%	3.24%	4.66%	1.38%	7.65%	-0.14%	3.48%
TIP	102.23	1.16	1.15%	1.00%	1.57%	2.64%	3.02%	4.35%	1.22%	1.86%
IEF	84.89	0.90	1.07%	0.92%	1.88%	3.29%	2.67%	5.72%	1.52%	3.52%
AGG	100.20	0.92	0.93%	0.44%	0.91%	1.75%	0.29%	2.42%	-0.40%	1.15%
SHY	81.20	0.28	0.35%	0.10%	0.28%	0.94%	1.45%	1.87%	1.07%	1.55%
FRE	59.31	-0.08	-0.13%	-1.27%	-7.39%	-3.83%	-12.64%	-9.33%	-4.45%	-6.05%
FNM	62.52	0.45	0.72%	-1.39%	-8.23%	-5.17%	4.44%	-1.45%	14.78%	21.02%
CFC	18.21	-0.27	-1.46%	-7.28%	-17.30%	-36.46%	-56.76%	-52.08%	-50.78%	-45.93%

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB index gained +3.56 pct W/W to close at 312.32.

The 50-day Moving Average is now at 314.44 and the 200-day MA is 310.01.

Crude oil prices are moving higher in the 70’s than I expected because the USD is falling faster.

Above 320 on the $CRB seems to be when the Fed wants to take action.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

The Crude Oil futures market ($WTIC in the US for Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) gained +2.66/bbl (+3.59 pct W/W) to close at 76.70.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is 73.34 and the 200d MA is 64.80, so Oil is now well above both the 50d MA and 200d MA lines, which is a measure of technical support.

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

This week, $Gold (the near futures) gained +27.80/oz (+4.08 pct W/W) to 709.70.

A week ago, $Gold (the near futures) gained +4.40/oz (+0.65 pct W/W) to 681.90.

Also a week ago, I wrote, “On Friday, there was a rally of +1.19 pct. Just as I say, on rally days in the broad market, $GOLD and $SILVER will lead the way. Traders still need to see bullion back to 690 and beyond before the Gold Bull is back, but in my opinion it’s on the way.”

Two weeks ago I wrote, “The goldminer shares are late to rally among all sectors and industries, but if the broad market rallies, and the liquidity injections and Discount Window status remains unchanged, then I believe the miners have to start moving higher. If so, look for confirmation in a falling $USD – hopefully a mildly deflating USD so that the Fed and other central bankers don’t come rushing in to prop it up… The charts continue to look as ready to zoom to the upside (690-750) as I have seen for a while. I note that the RBC Research Dept is in agreement. Three weeks ago Thursday evening, I published a report on gold and the miners. The next day, there was a spark to the gold market, which died as HB&B and traders rushed to cash in the broad market sell-off. Last weekend I opined, “But now looks like the real deal. Let’s visit this part of the WIR next weekend.” I have to say that Friday looked good on that front.”

The 50day MA for $GOLD is now 672.95 and the 200d MA is 661.10.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.53/oz (+4.33 pct W/W) to close at 12.76.

A week ago, $SILVER gained +0.13/oz (+1.09 pct W/W) to close at 12.23, but the gain on Friday was +2.26 pct.

Five weeks ago, spot silver was 13.16, so the silver bugs are clearly hoping for more.

As I wrote here three weeks ago, at 11.80, “(Silver) is now over-sold and will likely lead the PM rally (if that actually happens).” Today 12.76. Bingo.

The 50d MA is 12.66 and the 200d MA is 13.21.

Yes, “ I still believe that spot silver needs to move above the 200d MA (13.21) for any (significant) upside break-out. Do I think that’s going to happen soon? Yes.”

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

$PLAT gained +24.00/0z (+1.88 pct W/W) to close at 1298.90

A week ago, $PLAT gained +25.60/0z (+2.05 pct W/W) to close at 1274.90.

The 50d MA is 1292.47 and the 200d MA is 1246.77.

Two weeks ago here I opined, “Well, the rally has started.” Bingo.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

$PALL gained +3.05 (+0.90 pct W/W) to close at 340.80.

Tough sledding.

The 50d MA is 358.50 and the 200d MA is 355.82.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

Two weeks ago, Copper had a huge losing run to the upside of 11 sessions. I felt the end of the pullback was near.

A week ago, $COPPER (near futures contracts) were quiet all week until Friday. On the week they lifted +1.40 pct to close at 339.70, but the gain on Friday was +1.46 pct!

This week $COPPER dropped -14.55 (-4.28 pct) to close at 325.15.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 345.09 and the 200d MA is 317.69, so the current price (325.15) is well below the 50d MA and just above the 200d MA.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABX	36.65	0.45	1.24%	16.76%	12.32%	8.53%	22.86%	30.10%	30.01%	12.98%
BVN	42.41	-0.72	-1.67%	15.21%	13.88%	7.89%	53.60%	27.93%	57.19%	50.34%
AEM	49.19	0.96	1.99%	14.29%	17.20%	11.42%	26.39%	37.90%	33.41%	30.20%
GG	25.99	0.21	0.81%	12.46%	12.85%	4.29%	-4.94%	9.29%	2.81%	-6.48%
KGC	13.04	-0.22	-1.66%	11.17%	13.79%	2.44%	14.19%	1.56%	0.00%	-7.32%
GFI	16.18	-0.13	-0.80%	8.74%	10.97%	7.58%	-11.73%	1.19%	-4.26%	-21.11%
AUY	11.78	-0.64	-5.15%	8.27%	17.80%	7.88%	-4.46%	-9.66%	-15.01%	9.68%
MDG	29.26	-2.38	-7.52%	6.91%	15.56%	8.33%	11.30%	16.57%	14.61%	-5.67%
NEM	44.21	0.11	0.25%	6.48%	9.08%	6.74%	0.02%	10.97%	3.46%	-10.11%

This week, $XAU lifted +10.76 (+7.64 pct W/W) to close Friday at 151.53.

The 50d MA is 143.59 and the 200d MA is 140.27.

Two weeks ago, I opined, “I feel the charts are so positive today that these MA’s will be taken out soon. The stop after that is 148.” A week ago, I added, “the important 200-day MA was taken out and next to come is the 50-day MA (142.62). I believe that after we see 143, the goldminer shares index will then move up to and then through 148.”

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The $USD, which is a trade-weighted index we used to call the Morgan Dollar, lost -0.85 (-1.06 pct W/W) to close at 79.96.

Many weeks back, I opined, “I think a 70’s handle is in the offing.”

The following data is a simulation of the M3 as of the past week.

US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates. They have no option under the circumstances. The economy is strong, but the credit markets are imploding. Just remember, the ‘Word of the Day’ is “SIV-lite”.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

The Euro ($XEU) gained +1.32 (0.97 pct W/W) to close at 137.71. A week ago at 136.39. I opined, “I still think we’ll see a 140 handle inside 60 days.”

The 50d MA is 136.66 and the 200d MA is 133.69.

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

The Pound sterling gained +1.14 (+0.57 pct) to close at 202.82.

The 50d MA is 202.20 and the 200d MA is 198.07.

Previously I wrote, “I think there is a positive bias.”

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained +1.94 (+2.25 pct W/W) to close at 88.21.

The 50d MA is 84.25 and the 200d MA is 83.84.

The winding up of Japanese Carry Trades is pushing the Yen up (stronger) too quickly, I feel. The domestic economy is under pressure. I feel the Japanese will start to relieve the pressure, which will help US Treasury prices and equity market prices soon.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar ($CDW) gained +0.10 (+0.11 pct W/W) to close at 94.88.

The 50d MA is 94.81 and the 200d MA is 89.69.

Two weeks ago, I opined that $CDW was “looking like lift-off is set to occur.” Not much has happened because the Bank of Canada is resisting the stronger Cdn Dollar.

I still think there is a positive bias despite credit market issues and solvency problems with Coventry, and the Central Bank’s short-term relief.

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International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

The index lost -9 points to 13651. The all-time record high was 14646.80 about seven weeks ago.

Because Canada is a natural-resource based economy, which is in favor presently (and probably for the next five to ten years), I think the 14646 record will be beaten within the next 60 days, and will out-perform the US equity markets for several years.

But in the near-term, I’m not so sure the Canadian economy will prosper with a too-high Canadian Dollar and a neighboring US economy that may slow down in the 3rd and 4th quarter. So, I happen to think the Asia-Pacific market has better growth prospects than Canada.

Where Canada excels is in the junior resource sectors (energy and mining in particular), with excellent research. The penny dreadfuls on the Toronto Venture market are heavily regulated, which gives the punters a fair shot if you pick the best quality jockeys (which doesn’t mean the ones that are hyped the most in newsletters and at investor conferences). Western Goldfields is one. Production is starting now, with official results to commence January. Exciting drill results too.

Actually I am kidding about this one being a “penny dreadful” but you get the point.

I am looking forward to Aussieontop’s study of the junior prospectors and developers. I’ll add to that and put out a Cara Prospector & Developer 100 sometime later this year.

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Europe is all red arrows Friday as traders were disappointed with the US Jobs data. Let’s see what the Yen brings overnight Sunday. Things might change in Europe and in the US later in the day.

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Asia-Pacific

The indexes across Asia-Pacific equity markets were mixed today, with a negative bias.

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow today was down -0.83 pct at 16122.

The N225 closed last Friday at 16569.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Today, the Singapore STI was up +0.66 pct at 3489.

The STI last Friday closed at 3393.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Finally a day in Shanghai with no intraday or closing record high. The Shanghai Composite lost -2.16 pct to 5277.

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .

The Hong Kong market down -0.28 pct in today’s session, closing at 23982.6.

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Today, the Bombay Stock Exchange BSE 30 Sensex index lost -0.17 pct to 15590. The intra-day high almost set a new record.

Last Friday the index closed at 15305.

A record high (15868.8) is close by, which I have been saying is inevitable.

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

The All Ordinaries index of Australia gained +0.50 pct today to close at 6296.5.
The index closed last Friday at 6248.

“I continue to believe that a new rally will take the Aussie bourse to a return to July highs. For that to happen, however, the Basic Materials sector will have to take the lead.”
I continue to believe it will. Yesterday, it did.

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US Equity Markets Review

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KO	54.59	-0.07	-0.13%	2.23%	1.13%	-2.26%	12.37%	6.25%	16.77%	22.70%
GE	38.75	-0.65	-1.65%	0.91%	-0.95%	-0.49%	2.05%	5.41%	12.88%	13.84%
HPQ	48.85	-1.34	-2.67%	0.85%	2.52%	3.89%	17.37%	7.58%	21.61%	37.92%
MCD	49.24	-0.52	-1.05%	0.84%	-1.22%	-1.38%	12.24%	-1.93%	14.25%	34.83%
INTC	25.47	-0.68	-2.60%	0.75%	5.12%	6.48%	25.16%	19.52%	33.21%	32.73%
PG	65.47	-0.64	-0.97%	0.71%	0.66%	0.77%	1.44%	5.05%	5.46%	6.40%
XOM	85.75	-1.74	-1.99%	0.41%	2.39%	2.57%	15.71%	4.62%	19.70%	26.68%
DIS	33.59	-0.82	-2.38%	0.36%	1.30%	1.79%	-1.78%	-1.96%	-2.44%	13.90%
IBM	115.55	-2.07	-1.76%	0.16%	3.68%	4.35%	18.79%	13.51%	23.00%	45.53%
JNJ	61.68	0.02	0.03%	0.13%	-0.69%	1.40%	-7.11%	-0.52%	-0.29%	-2.80%
AXP	57.75	-1.65	-2.78%	0.05%	-3.80%	-4.78%	-4.32%	-7.95%	3.38%	10.42%
MSFT	28.44	-0.47	-1.63%	-0.04%	0.49%	-1.66%	-4.76%	-3.98%	3.01%	11.79%
UTX	73.79	-1.22	-1.63%	-0.07%	0.67%	1.96%	17.48%	7.14%	14.83%	17.56%
MRK	49.57	-0.90	-1.78%	-0.18%	-1.84%	-3.64%	12.61%	-1.53%	13.02%	21.97%
MMM	88.92	-1.71	-1.89%	-0.49%	0.19%	2.37%	13.62%	4.76%	20.49%	25.97%
JPM	43.52	-0.69	-1.56%	-1.02%	-4.71%	-1.47%	-9.47%	-12.65%	-10.01%	-3.72%
PFE	24.25	-0.37	-1.50%	-1.22%	-1.50%	0.46%	-7.76%	-7.76%	-4.04%	-11.66%
VZ	41.34	-0.92	-2.18%	-1.41%	-1.92%	-1.38%	9.31%	-2.93%	15.86%	17.08%
C	45.48	-0.18	-0.39%	-1.62%	-5.94%	-3.03%	-17.68%	-13.40%	-9.44%	-6.32%
CAT	73.44	-2.31	-3.05%	-1.63%	-2.30%	-6.42%	20.08%	-5.01%	14.34%	8.38%
DD	47.50	-0.92	-1.90%	-1.94%	-2.94%	-3.18%	-3.14%	-5.70%	-5.83%	19.77%
BA	94.84	-1.36	-1.41%	-2.08%	-1.96%	-3.52%	6.36%	-2.07%	6.91%	30.15%
WMT	42.39	-0.37	-0.87%	-2.15%	-1.81%	-8.74%	-10.85%	-14.81%	-11.56%	-6.92%
GM	29.55	-1.50	-4.83%	-2.57%	-3.90%	-15.21%	0.34%	-0.44%	-3.96%	-6.16%
T	38.73	-1.01	-2.54%	-2.59%	-3.42%	-1.32%	10.82%	-2.00%	9.31%	23.82%
MO	67.39	-0.88	-1.29%	-2.69%	-1.81%	-0.41%	3.80%	-3.11%	5.54%	9.40%
HON	54.71	-1.95	-3.44%	-2.81%	-2.08%	-3.65%	21.31%	-3.00%	17.43%	42.66%
AIG	63.55	-1.19	-1.84%	-3.13%	-5.26%	-1.17%	-11.92%	-10.97%	-8.30%	-0.55%
AA	34.87	-1.63	-4.47%	-3.54%	-2.52%	-1.61%	18.89%	-10.43%	7.66%	20.62%
HD	34.21	-1.01	-2.87%	-7.64%	0.56%	-4.41%	-16.70%	-9.16%	-11.62%	-0.38%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The Value Line report this week is on McDonalds (MCD).

(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

I like this company after it decided in 1999 it was no longer a high-growth company and changed its financial structure to relying on being more a profit and cash flow-generator than an asset accumulator. Now, instead of high capex, the company intends to pay high dividends. And, being in the fast-food, high cash turnover business, the company has become a sort of business income trust.

The last cyclical Bear started one intermediate-term cycle before its Dow 30 peers (beginning of 2000) and ended one cycle later (1Q03). I assume that’s the period when money tightened following Y2K, and also when the shareholder interest in the company changed from growth to cash flow.

The bull phase from 1Q03 (Feb/Mar-03 under $13) to $53 in Jul-07 has been a good one and ought to endure, on a relative basis, for the next couple years. The stock has come off its highs and is presently $49.25. I would wait until it dips about -10 pct from here before expecting it shows up on the Accumulation Zone list. But don’t wait for a Monthly RSI-7 to drop to 30. Instead, because of the stable cash flow, I don’t think the Monthly RSI-7 will drop below 50, but I do think the Weekly (47.4) and Daily (49.8) will drop to ~30 at the cycle bottom.

If you are waiting to buy the stock, don’t ignore the importance of the annual (not quarterly) dividend, which is usually paid in the Nov. 10-14 period. So watch for the record date for dividends. The dividend this year could be ~$1.25/share and say $1.50 next year.

Let’s say you can buy the stock at $44.75 later in the year. With two years of dividends of say $2.75, you cost base is say $42. In a strong market say two years from now, based on say $3.00 in 2008 earnings and $3.30 in 2009 and a PE of 18-20, you should expect a market to be roughly $60. That would give you a total return of about +43 pct (or say +20 pct compounded annually). For a business income trust type of company (consistent earnings and cash flow and dividend growth in a stable industry), that would be solid. You then look to your growth stocks to return you say 30 pct annual total returns to be able to average those +26 pct annual Warren Buffett type returns I write about.

For a terrific defensive strategy for the next year, why not consider writing all the January 2009 puts you can from the 45’s (@~4), the 40’s (@~2.50), the 35’s (@~1.70) to the 30’s (@0.85). If you bought 25 pct positions in each, your average premium income would be say $2.25/option and if the capital markets of the world were to collapse, causing the food lines at McDonald’s to grow (LOL), and the stock (heaven forbid) was to drop to $25 (~50 pct its present price), where would your portfolio be? You’d take in stock (by having other shareholders exercise their put options) at an average of $37.50 and your net cost (less the premium income) would be 35.25. But that would be say in 2009, and your cost base would be lower than 99 pct of all professional money managers over 5 years (ie, since mid-2005). Isn’t that a position you’d like to be in? Besides, over the almost 30 years from 1981 to 2009, the lowest PE has been 14, so at a price of $25, the earnings would have to be under $1.80. Value Line projects 2007 earnings @$2.75, 2008 @$3.00 and 2010-12 @$3.60. Only once in the past 25 years has earnings ever dropped, and that was a minor blip in 2001 (from $1.46 to $1.36), to be expected after the crisis of 9/11.

What I am doing here is modeling a price projection from a worst case to a reasonable case. Then looking at possible strategies that fit, and whether or not they might appeal to some people. It shows the importance of dealing in pennies and percentages in a market continuum. It shows that your portfolio should be run like any business whether you manufacture nuts and bolts or use your capital to trade securities prices.

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 15: next one is due Sep. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug 10: next one is due Nov 9)

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Wrap up:

My wife's flight is in the air, so I rushed this WIR -- new record of 3:05 hours, which included a swim for 15 minutes. I'll have to add the charts/tables from David and Jock later sometime...

After staying in a hotel room for two months, and then a boat and then a 10 bedroom 10 bath home with a single friend, I decided to vacation now that my wife is on the way. I chose a three bedroom villa at the Sunrise Beach Club next to Atlantis/RUI on Paradise Island.

Two people don’t need three bedrooms, but I like the idea of space. The selling feature is that it overlooks the beach – one of the world’s best and is adjacent to the swimming pool. The casino and restaurants of Atlantis is a three-minute walk away. For getting into town and around, I got this snappy little manual stick red jeep (“You want to feel young, right?” was the sales pitch).

It is all about vacations.

But we will be missing the dinner/dance at the Yacht Club tonight. That would be too much like regular life. Everybody there will be going back to work on Monday.

I will set up a Daily Commentary (but no Daily Report) next week. Have at it.

Oh, I might even send photos because the owner said he’d call the place the “Cara Villa” if I marketed it on my website? Hey, if the commish is ok, why not? At the very least, everybody would know that of all the places I could have chosen here for a special week, this was the one.

Enjoy your weekend. Now I have to rush to buy the wine/champagne and go from Prospect Ridge to get to Paradise Island to open the villa then the trek back to the airport. It'll be tight, but I'll make it. I usually do. :-)

Excuse the typos.

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