Bill Cara: Saturday’s Commentary & Chat, 09/08/2007 8:01 AM ET

« Cara’s Friday Report, Sept. 7, 2007, 9:36 AM | Main | Week in Review #36 (2007-09-08) »

September 8, 2007

Saturday’s Commentary & Chat, 09/08/2007 8:01 AM ET

US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, interviewed on Friday by Bloomberg: “Tough times for financial services companies; some will fail.” Message received, loud and clear.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

XLE 70.26 -1.54 -2.14% 1.97% 3.78% 4.31% 24.18% 3.87% 22.94% 26.94%

SMH 37.81 -0.91 -2.35% 1.10% 1.56% 0.56% 12.63% 5.94% 11.96% 15.24%

XLU 39.02 -0.42 -1.06% 0.98% -1.01% -1.71% 5.98% 0.18% 2.52% 13.60%

IYH 68.56 -0.82 -1.18% 0.51% 0.63% 1.26% 3.16% -2.48% 3.64% 6.97%

XLB 38.77 -0.75 -1.90% 0.05% 0.70% -0.97% 12.02% -2.19% 6.19% 22.57%

XLI 38.71 -0.78 -1.98% -0.31% -0.39% -0.69% 9.88% 1.71% 10.57% 20.48%

XLP 26.74 -0.23 -0.85% -0.34% -0.52% -1.87% 1.75% -2.05% 3.24% 5.23%

XLF 33.00 -0.43 -1.29% -1.05% -4.21% -1.49% -10.62% -10.30% -6.94% -0.81%

IYZ 32.53 -0.62 -1.87% -1.24% -0.88% 1.56% 9.68% -3.07% 9.09% 21.43%

XLY 35.93 -0.90 -2.44% -1.62% -1.37% -1.62% -6.72% -7.71% -5.15% 8.91%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

PBR 64.14 -1.19 -1.82% 8.18% 11.80% 3.60% 28.72% 20.32% 46.40% 49.34%

STO 30.25 -0.42 -1.37% 7.23% 9.60% 9.40% 17.75% 10.97% 21.00% 16.12%

IMO 44.84 -0.21 -0.47% 4.96% 5.75% 5.75% 25.74% -2.07% 26.20% 28.70%

SU 90.98 -1.64 -1.77% 4.33% 6.10% 1.52% 23.10% 4.86% 30.62% 20.97%

CEO 122.13 -0.81 -0.66% 4.30% 6.20% 8.39% 29.55% 18.72% 50.57% 47.41%

TOT 75.30 -1.02 -1.34% 2.16% 3.89% 2.03% 6.10% 1.73% 13.99% 15.86%

ECA 59.01 -0.86 -1.44% 1.65% 0.44% -0.59% 30.15% -5.17% 24.81% 15.77%

CVX 87.65 -1.28 -1.44% 0.53% 2.54% 8.06% 23.50% 9.29% 28.27% 34.02%

XOM 85.75 -1.74 -1.99% 0.41% 2.39% 2.57% 15.71% 4.62% 19.70% 26.68%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

RTP 294.75 -6.77 -2.25% 11.48% 12.67% 15.05% 44.41% 6.64% 40.76% 45.30%

RIO 50.68 -1.40 -2.69% 5.65% 12.57% 8.11% 75.85% 17.45% 47.88% 133.23%

NUE 53.87 -1.56 -2.81% 3.84% 4.54% 2.41% -1.16% -16.87% -10.14% 8.26%

BHP 64.18 -2.01 -3.04% 3.83% 5.28% 5.91% 65.11% 17.20% 50.76% 55.81%

GGB 23.54 -0.53 -2.20% 2.71% 4.21% -3.88% 43.36% 4.90% 43.36% 60.79%

PKX 150.86 -6.83 -4.33% 1.87% 9.24% 10.08% 89.93% 25.50% 60.03% 142.15%

MT 63.98 -1.99 -3.02% -0.73% 7.35% 6.94% 56.81% 5.93% 24.14% 90.99%

TCK 40.65 -1.39 -3.31% -0.93% -3.65% 0.74% -41.30% -2.70% -40.17% -40.62%

TS 45.18 -0.79 -1.72% -2.98% -3.34% -7.49% -6.88% -2.40% 2.06% 23.07%

AA 34.87 -1.63 -4.47% -3.54% -2.52% -1.61% 18.89% -10.43% 7.66% 20.62%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

GE 38.75 -0.65 -1.65% 0.91% -0.95% -0.49% 2.05% 5.41% 12.88% 13.84%

ERJ 44.35 -1.48 -3.23% 0.84% 7.99% -9.56% 8.75% -6.83% -1.53% 10.35%

UTX 73.79 -1.22 -1.63% -0.07% 0.67% 1.96% 17.48% 7.14% 14.83% 17.56%

MMM 88.92 -1.71 -1.89% -0.49% 0.19% 2.37% 13.62% 4.76% 20.49% 25.97%

FDX 108.21 -1.96 -1.78% -0.70% -1.90% -1.18% -1.42% 0.75% -3.68% 7.67%

CAT 73.44 -2.31 -3.05% -1.63% -2.30% -6.42% 20.08% -5.01% 14.34% 8.38%

BA 94.84 -1.36 -1.41% -2.08% -1.96% -3.52% 6.36% -2.07% 6.91% 30.15%

HON 54.71 -1.95 -3.44% -2.81% -2.08% -3.65% 21.31% -3.00% 17.43% 42.66%

ABB 23.18 -0.80 -3.34% -3.62% 0.56% 0.30% 30.08% 10.91% 41.86% 75.08%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

EBAY 35.25 -0.49 -1.37% 4.91% 3.07% -3.66% 16.84% 15.16% 13.60% 28.04%

DIS 33.59 -0.82 -2.38% 0.36% 1.30% 1.79% -1.78% -1.96% -2.44% 13.90%

TM 113.30 -2.18 -1.89% 0.01% -1.74% -5.42% -16.26% -7.98% -14.76% 6.73%

CCL 44.72 -1.44 -3.12% -0.62% -0.93% -5.65% -12.23% -8.60% -1.63% 6.22%

SBUX 27.16 -0.42 -1.52% -0.69% -1.31% -3.17% -22.95% -1.02% -10.86% -12.72%

JCP 65.07 -0.95 -1.44% -1.39% 0.81% -0.35% -16.64% -16.35% -16.20% 1.94%

NKE 54.70 -1.10 -1.97% -1.90% 1.24% 1.48% 12.02% 1.11% 4.61% 35.77%

WHR 92.77 -3.30 -3.43% -2.50% -4.32% -4.14% 9.58% -13.81% 5.16% 15.98%

BC 23.22 -0.80 -3.33% -6.67% -8.33% -10.00% -27.26% -29.85% -29.42% -19.63%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

BUD 49.84 0.14 0.28% 2.98% 3.83% 2.76% 1.26% -4.76% 1.67% 5.30%

DEO 85.65 -0.17 -0.20% 2.39% 4.75% 3.97% 7.70% 3.49% 12.37% 21.39%

KO 54.59 -0.07 -0.13% 2.23% 1.13% -2.26% 12.37% 6.25% 16.77% 22.70%

PG 65.47 -0.64 -0.97% 0.71% 0.66% 0.77% 1.44% 5.05% 5.46% 6.40%

PEP 67.98 -0.58 -0.85% 0.18% 0.10% -0.76% 8.39% 2.46% 8.33% 5.85%

WAG 44.15 -0.93 -2.06% -1.05% -1.47% -6.34% -4.17% 0.46% 0.23% -12.14%

WMT 42.39 -0.37 -0.87% -2.15% -1.81% -8.74% -10.85% -14.81% -11.56% -6.92%

WFMI 43.13 -0.08 -0.19% -2.31% -0.48% -3.84% -5.17% 10.62% -6.50% -17.53%

ABV 65.74 -2.42 -3.55% -2.49% 1.64% 0.37% 33.89% -0.63% 29.03% 50.23%

MO 67.39 -0.88 -1.29% -2.69% -1.81% -0.41% 3.80% -3.11% 5.54% 9.40%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

DNA 79.09 0.09 0.11% 7.56% 7.87% 7.66% -3.31% 5.59% -3.30% -3.64%

GSK 53.07 -0.39 -0.73% 3.61% 2.89% 1.18% -1.38% 3.37% -3.63% -3.09%

NVS 53.40 0.07 0.13% 2.24% 1.60% -2.75% -8.15% -3.47% -5.52% -4.34%

AMGN 50.90 -1.11 -2.13% 1.64% 1.29% -0.18% -25.58% -10.13% -17.93% -25.51%

UNH 49.19 -0.41 -0.83% 0.29% 1.17% 6.17% -6.43% -7.81% -8.57% -2.03%

JNJ 61.68 0.02 0.03% 0.13% -0.69% 1.40% -7.11% -0.52% -0.29% -2.80%

BMET 45.86 0.08 0.17% 0.07% 0.35% 0.55% 10.59% 0.66% 8.85% 41.72%

AET 50.24 -0.98 -1.91% -0.46% 1.68% 7.01% 17.16% -2.26% 13.43% 41.12%

PFE 24.25 -0.37 -1.50% -1.22% -1.50% 0.46% -7.76% -7.76% -4.04% -11.66%

BMY 27.81 -0.86 -3.00% -3.44% -4.10% -1.31% 5.42% -4.66% 2.54% 22.46%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

GS 178.98 -0.20 -0.11% 4.43% 0.83% -1.79% -10.83% -18.66% -8.49% 20.47%

MS 62.50 0.00 0.00% 3.89% -2.81% 1.12% -23.43% -26.24% -15.41% -5.25%

DB 123.99 -2.50 -1.98% 1.97% 0.04% -7.09% -8.39% -12.84% -2.77% 10.16%

MER 73.18 -0.54 -0.73% 1.39% -3.57% -2.01% -21.82% -16.14% -10.98% -0.07%

UBS 52.09 -0.40 -0.76% 1.03% -0.78% -5.79% -15.15% -14.70% -10.76% -7.58%

CS 64.76 -1.24 -1.88% 0.17% -2.18% -5.74% -7.63% -10.43% -7.92% 0.00%

HBC 89.02 -0.96 -1.07% -0.08% -1.24% -2.53% -4.25% -2.82% 1.80% -0.34%

JPM 43.52 -0.69 -1.56% -1.02% -4.71% -1.47% -9.47% -12.65% -10.01% -3.72%

LEH 52.95 -0.88 -1.63% -1.53% -8.99% -11.97% -32.66% -27.75% -28.35% -19.06%

C 45.48 -0.18 -0.39% -1.62% -5.94% -3.03% -17.68% -13.40% -9.44% -6.32%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SAP 55.36 -0.19 -0.34% 4.91% 5.89% 1.56% 4.06% 15.69% 20.82% 19.67%

INFY 47.72 -1.30 -2.65% 2.76% 3.76% -3.20% -14.51% 0.48% -9.16% 7.72%

ADBE 42.96 -0.76 -1.74% 1.75% 5.81% 5.42% 7.62% 0.56% 10.89% 36.38%

INTC 25.47 -0.68 -2.60% 0.75% 5.12% 6.48% 25.16% 19.52% 33.21% 32.73%

CSCO 31.52 -0.32 -1.01% 0.29% 4.13% 0.38% 13.63% 21.93% 21.84% 46.33%

ORCL 20.16 -0.38 -1.85% -0.25% 4.08% 0.35% 15.13% 7.63% 22.26% 25.92%

ADSK 45.15 -1.57 -3.36% -0.55% 0.24% 3.48% 11.32% 3.39% 15.98% 43.42%

CTSH 71.07 -1.03 -1.43% -1.20% -4.67% -16.51% -8.60% -5.18% -20.78% 3.06%

QCOM 37.89 -0.93 -2.40% -3.05% 0.08% -0.86% 1.15% -7.63% -4.54% 2.49%

SNDK 52.93 -2.80 -5.02% -3.17% -0.36% -6.25% 26.87% 23.32% 36.59% -3.64%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 3.89 4.15 3.92 4.79

6 Month 3.99 4.20 4.03 4.80

2 Year 3.89 4.08 4.12 4.65

3 Year 3.91 4.08 4.15 4.65

5 Year 4.03 4.21 4.24 4.72

10 Year 4.38 4.51 4.53 4.88

30 Year 4.69 4.79 4.82 5.04

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.54 3.59 3.61 3.68

2yr AAA 3.56 3.60 3.50 3.63

2yr A 3.62 3.66 3.56 3.70

5yr AAA 3.61 3.56 3.62 3.71

5yr AA 3.50 3.53 3.70 3.77

5yr A 3.83 3.78 3.84 4.08

10yr AAA 3.57 3.88 4.44 3.97

10yr AA 3.50 3.80 4.44 3.96

10yr A 3.80 4.10 4.67 4.09

20yr AAA .O.FINANCE.BONDRATES.PRODUCTION 4.62 4.48 4.60

20yr AA U@ 4.36 38 3.83

20yr A 6U 4.32 .65 3.91

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 4.78 4.90 4.97 5.20

2yr A 4.99 5.01 5.00 5.23

5yr AAA 4.92 5.07 5.10 5.39

5yr AA 5.20 5.31 5.35 5.56

5yr A 5.07 5.26 5.26 5.60

10yr AAA 5.28 5.51 5.67 6.00

10yr AA 5.81 5.92 5.89 5.87

10yr A 5.87 5.96 6.02 6.12

20yr AAA 6.05 6.18 6.19 6.21

20yr AA 6.16 6.29 6.30 6.32

20yr A 6.19 6.32 6.33 6.35

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

TLT 90.30 1.26 1.42% 1.70% 3.24% 4.66% 1.38% 7.65% -0.14% 3.48%

TIP 102.23 1.16 1.15% 1.00% 1.57% 2.64% 3.02% 4.35% 1.22% 1.86%

IEF 84.89 0.90 1.07% 0.92% 1.88% 3.29% 2.67% 5.72% 1.52% 3.52%

AGG 100.20 0.92 0.93% 0.44% 0.91% 1.75% 0.29% 2.42% -0.40% 1.15%

SHY 81.20 0.28 0.35% 0.10% 0.28% 0.94% 1.45% 1.87% 1.07% 1.55%

FRE 59.31 -0.08 -0.13% -1.27% -7.39% -3.83% -12.64% -9.33% -4.45% -6.05%

FNM 62.52 0.45 0.72% -1.39% -8.23% -5.17% 4.44% -1.45% 14.78% 21.02%

CFC 18.21 -0.27 -1.46% -7.28% -17.30% -36.46% -56.76% -52.08% -50.78% -45.93%

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ABX 36.65 0.45 1.24% 16.76% 12.32% 8.53% 22.86% 30.10% 30.01% 12.98%

BVN 42.41 -0.72 -1.67% 15.21% 13.88% 7.89% 53.60% 27.93% 57.19% 50.34%

AEM 49.19 0.96 1.99% 14.29% 17.20% 11.42% 26.39% 37.90% 33.41% 30.20%

GG 25.99 0.21 0.81% 12.46% 12.85% 4.29% -4.94% 9.29% 2.81% -6.48%

KGC 13.04 -0.22 -1.66% 11.17% 13.79% 2.44% 14.19% 1.56% 0.00% -7.32%

GFI 16.18 -0.13 -0.80% 8.74% 10.97% 7.58% -11.73% 1.19% -4.26% -21.11%

AUY 11.78 -0.64 -5.15% 8.27% 17.80% 7.88% -4.46% -9.66% -15.01% 9.68%

MDG 29.26 -2.38 -7.52% 6.91% 15.56% 8.33% 11.30% 16.57% 14.61% -5.67%

NEM 44.21 0.11 0.25% 6.48% 9.08% 6.74% 0.02% 10.97% 3.46% -10.11%

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

EWZ 61.04 -1.56 -2.49% 2.92% 5.70% 0.23% 30.71% 8.59% 35.77% 57.32%

EWC 29.97 -0.27 -0.89% 1.87% 1.66% 2.32% 21.34% 2.18% 19.07% 23.64%

EWU 24.57 -0.43 -1.72% 1.61% 1.74% -0.61% 4.33% -0.32% 6.97% 13.86%

IFN 46.01 -1.07 -2.27% 1.52% 5.87% -0.09% 1.48% 13.02% 20.95% 20.45%

FXI 146.78 -4.12 -2.73% 0.52% 6.25% 12.25% 26.10% 30.34% 53.84% 86.27%

IEV 111.60 -1.64 -1.45% 0.13% 0.48% -0.49% 5.68% -1.36% 8.39% 19.01%

SPY 146.15 -1.98 -1.34% 0.00% -0.25% 0.52% 3.38% -1.98% 4.72% 12.50%

QQQQ 48.23 -0.91 -1.85% -0.21% 1.47% 1.09% 11.54% 4.08% 13.00% 25.31%

EWJ 13.64 -0.09 -0.66% -0.94% -1.87% -3.40% -3.94% -6.51% -6.25% -0.44%

TRF 60.40 -2.08 -3.33% -1.52% -0.79% -6.11% -31.79% -4.52% -10.60% -11.48%

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

KO 54.59 -0.07 -0.13% 2.23% 1.13% -2.26% 12.37% 6.25% 16.77% 22.70%

GE 38.75 -0.65 -1.65% 0.91% -0.95% -0.49% 2.05% 5.41% 12.88% 13.84%

HPQ 48.85 -1.34 -2.67% 0.85% 2.52% 3.89% 17.37% 7.58% 21.61% 37.92%

MCD 49.24 -0.52 -1.05% 0.84% -1.22% -1.38% 12.24% -1.93% 14.25% 34.83%

INTC 25.47 -0.68 -2.60% 0.75% 5.12% 6.48% 25.16% 19.52% 33.21% 32.73%

PG 65.47 -0.64 -0.97% 0.71% 0.66% 0.77% 1.44% 5.05% 5.46% 6.40%

XOM 85.75 -1.74 -1.99% 0.41% 2.39% 2.57% 15.71% 4.62% 19.70% 26.68%

DIS 33.59 -0.82 -2.38% 0.36% 1.30% 1.79% -1.78% -1.96% -2.44% 13.90%

IBM 115.55 -2.07 -1.76% 0.16% 3.68% 4.35% 18.79% 13.51% 23.00% 45.53%

JNJ 61.68 0.02 0.03% 0.13% -0.69% 1.40% -7.11% -0.52% -0.29% -2.80%

AXP 57.75 -1.65 -2.78% 0.05% -3.80% -4.78% -4.32% -7.95% 3.38% 10.42%

MSFT 28.44 -0.47 -1.63% -0.04% 0.49% -1.66% -4.76% -3.98% 3.01% 11.79%

UTX 73.79 -1.22 -1.63% -0.07% 0.67% 1.96% 17.48% 7.14% 14.83% 17.56%

MRK 49.57 -0.90 -1.78% -0.18% -1.84% -3.64% 12.61% -1.53% 13.02% 21.97%

MMM 88.92 -1.71 -1.89% -0.49% 0.19% 2.37% 13.62% 4.76% 20.49% 25.97%

JPM 43.52 -0.69 -1.56% -1.02% -4.71% -1.47% -9.47% -12.65% -10.01% -3.72%

PFE 24.25 -0.37 -1.50% -1.22% -1.50% 0.46% -7.76% -7.76% -4.04% -11.66%

VZ 41.34 -0.92 -2.18% -1.41% -1.92% -1.38% 9.31% -2.93% 15.86% 17.08%

C 45.48 -0.18 -0.39% -1.62% -5.94% -3.03% -17.68% -13.40% -9.44% -6.32%

CAT 73.44 -2.31 -3.05% -1.63% -2.30% -6.42% 20.08% -5.01% 14.34% 8.38%

DD 47.50 -0.92 -1.90% -1.94% -2.94% -3.18% -3.14% -5.70% -5.83% 19.77%

BA 94.84 -1.36 -1.41% -2.08% -1.96% -3.52% 6.36% -2.07% 6.91% 30.15%

WMT 42.39 -0.37 -0.87% -2.15% -1.81% -8.74% -10.85% -14.81% -11.56% -6.92%

GM 29.55 -1.50 -4.83% -2.57% -3.90% -15.21% 0.34% -0.44% -3.96% -6.16%

T 38.73 -1.01 -2.54% -2.59% -3.42% -1.32% 10.82% -2.00% 9.31% 23.82%

MO 67.39 -0.88 -1.29% -2.69% -1.81% -0.41% 3.80% -3.11% 5.54% 9.40%

HON 54.71 -1.95 -3.44% -2.81% -2.08% -3.65% 21.31% -3.00% 17.43% 42.66%

AIG 63.55 -1.19 -1.84% -3.13% -5.26% -1.17% -11.92% -10.97% -8.30% -0.55%

AA 34.87 -1.63 -4.47% -3.54% -2.52% -1.61% 18.89% -10.43% 7.66% 20.62%

HD 34.21 -1.01 -2.87% -7.64% 0.56% -4.41% -16.70% -9.16% -11.62% -0.38%

The Value Line report this week is on McDonalds (MCD).

(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

I’ll do an abbreviated Week In Review about noon.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 8, 2007 08:01:00 AM | Category: Saturday Report

Discourse

Picking up on Craig's comment from yesterday:

Angelo Mazillo is trying to track down Ben and corner him in a dark alley.

Countrywide is laying off 10,000-12,000 workers.
BUT, they "could" lay off fewer "if there is some improvement in conditions".

I wonder what THAT might be? I think 50 basis pts.

May as well be a gun in the ribs.

Over at my 2nd favorite blog, Calculated Risk, there's been a long discussion of this "midnight massacre". It is, as always, civil, sometimes darkly humorous, but ultimately very unsettling.

Mozillo's attempt to extort the Fed is shameless and signals just how desperate the situation is for this company in particular, and for the credit markets in general.

With all due respect to Kaimu, not all of us are in a position to sustain ourselves through a prolonged economic crisis. Many people, even those of us who have not leveraged our home equity, or carry credit card debt, or live beyond our means, are just one job loss away from financial catastrophe.

That's what happened to 10,000 families last night.

Posted by: number2son at September 8, 2007 10:02 AM [link]

number2,,,,,been there done that.

I was in banking management and the financial companies need these downturns to "rightsize", as they call it.

They clear the decks approx. every 8-10 years.

Dab

Posted by: dabonenose at September 8, 2007 10:58 AM [link]

I have mixed feelings about Comcast's action to limit downloads. On one hand, it used to be that high demand caused new and expanded product lines from competitors in a free market place, and that both met demand and kept prices in control.

Government intervened in that process by providing cable monopolies. So now, at least one cable provider, Comcast, sees fit to charge as much, or more, while providing less than what is desired by the customer.

Are tracking 25 stocks in real time, too much? Time to end monopolies on cable!! I guess each city/county must be convinced (taken from the trough?).

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20633771/

Posted by: spot at September 8, 2007 11:08 AM [link]

number2son, I was impressed by your comment about Countrywide Financial and their layoffs. You are right losing a job can have catastrophic effects. In mid 2001 my husband worked for a very large international company as a Third Party Coordinator for computer service across America(guess I shouldn't name them). But think CNBC. Being a global economy, this mega company outsourced his job to India. He was 54 yrs then. About that time the stock market pretty much tanked, and our portfolios tanked as well along with everybody elses. To make a long story short :-) we had a beautiful home, good portfolios.... right on track for a nice retirement.

Obviously, we got derailed and are still struggling to "catch up". My heart goes out to the Countrywide employees; for some, probably many, it will be a life altering event especially if they are say a few years out from retirement.

I don't fault the company(s) for outsourcing all those jobs, they have to compete globally, but it's still catastrophic. And, maybe they could have given people like us a heads up that it was coming. No warning. Your last two paragraphs say it all.

Posted by: NT at September 8, 2007 11:26 AM [link]

NT,,,,I hear ya. I was caught up in the bank consolidations in the early 1990's. I was 50 when that all started and am now 60 and still struggling to a degree.

Fortunately, when times were good I paid off all debt, incl. residence, auto, credit cards, etc.

But many never see it coming, I did in earlier years and was able to prepare.

My number one objective is always pay down the debt if you have it.

Dab

Posted by: dabonenose at September 8, 2007 12:50 PM [link]

Philly Fed President Plosser uncertain whether a rate cut is needed:

http://tinyurl.com/32kf8u

Excerpt: "Many Fed watchers believe the Fed district bank presidents are more reluctant to cut the federal funds rate than the members of the Fed board of governors.

In the past few days, some bank presidents have stressed that the Fed must avoid the 'moral hazard' problem by bailing out investors who took excessive risk."

Posted by: 2nd_ave at September 8, 2007 4:37 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

I say self-sustaining ... You don't have to acheive that goal but you must be moving towards that goal at the very least. Believe me if you don't buy into it now it will be forced down your throat later! One way or another we all must live with less government(welfare) and depend upon ourselves and our families more and not the US government or its corporations. We only exist now from the generous facade of the foreign welfare teat. Once foreigners are done with us the domino effect will run deep.

More on China later and how Islam is closer to the US Constitution than our own government ... I have work to do.

Posted by: kaimu at September 8, 2007 4:53 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

Like on "Coffee Talk" ...

Haliburton moved their headquarters to Dubai for what reason? DISCUSS-S-S !!!

Posted by: kaimu at September 8, 2007 4:56 PM [link]

I would like to get the community's opinion of this site. Joe Ferrazzano predicts a bear market bottom of 200-220 for HUI and 85-90 for the XAU; and gives $475-500 as a good price for gold:

http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/

Joe has been predicting a major drop in miners since last year (based on Elliot Wave analysis).

Posted by: northvan at September 8, 2007 5:16 PM [link]

Hmmm.....lemme guess Kaimu,

Hal gets favorable tax status and income in a currency gaining in value as is their capital investment in Dubai. And they can pretty much avoid investigation into their graft, fraud, skimming, overcharging and general corruption in Iraq. Discuss-s-sting.......

Posted by: Craig at September 8, 2007 9:10 PM [link]

HAL also divested KBR, which did all that nasty work in Iraq, and by moving HQ, sent a message that Arab oil people were important to them ...

Posted by: Jock at September 8, 2007 9:56 PM [link]

Maybe. I doubt if Arab oil "people" matter even a little bit. Arab OIL is important to them though. I think it also shows where they think the resources are and thus work is.

There doesn't appear to be the work they envisioned in the Gulf of Mexico, VZ or continental shelf and they aren't needed (or wanted) in Canada. What's left? They aren't exactly a loved name in the U.S. either public relations wise. That past CEO is quite the albatross.

Probably best to get out of town for many reasons.

Posted by: Craig at September 8, 2007 11:28 PM [link]

KRY:
Some seem to think H. Chavez might talk about the mine permit this morning on his address to the nation at 8am pst. There is a radio link on the right of the web page at:
www.alopresidente.gob.ve

Posted by: stktrader at September 9, 2007 10:42 AM [link]

this is the comment in the WIR that I am honed in on...

"The winding up of Japanese Carry Trades is pushing the Yen up (stronger) too quickly, I feel. The domestic economy is under pressure. I feel the Japanese will start to relieve the pressure, which will help US Treasury prices and equity market prices soon."

The move of the yen vs our major US market indexs is amazingly correlated right now.

My question to others is - With the US dollar index closing below 80 on friday, and gold closing above 700 (but not an all time high) - HOW does the US market rally? I am asking because I am learning and would like opinions...

My thoughts - The USD has to hold 78.38 or so.. otherwise it goes to 60. If it goes to 60, there is a problem. And if the Fed cuts rates with the USD at 79ish... then it will break lower. So the Fed is in a box. If the dollar can rebound here, then Gold should go DOWN as well as our general markets, right?...

But if the yen does "stop going up" - which I think happens as well btw - then our markets should rally....

Too confusing for me...

Thanks for any posts/thought...

SoccerMatt

Posted by: SoccerMatt at September 9, 2007 11:57 AM [link]

I think this is required reading:

What Future Does the Credit Crunch Bring?
Fri Sep 7th, 2007 By Mr Practical (minyanville.com) http://tinyurl.com/2p6dbl

Posted by: omphalos at September 9, 2007 12:19 PM [link]

My take on it is that a dropping currency doesn't necessarily mean a dropping stock market. Look at Japan, look at Zimbabwe. Real returns might drop if inflation gets really out of hand, but generally dropping currency helps out exporters.

The flipside of this ties into the discussion the other day about the importance of the US consumer. A dropping currency is great if your economy is heavily supported by exports, which I presume Japans is. But if 70% of your GDP is dependant on consumption, a dropping dollar means more expensive imports and would likely impact consumer spending significantly.

Not to mention a dropping dollar should eventually result in higher interest rates eventually crimping consumers access to cheap debt and thus ability to spend.

But the dropping dollar/more expensive imports/rising interest rates is maybe a slower process than the liquidity-seeking-returns process that drives markets higher in an inflationary environment...

Just thinking out loud though :)

Posted by: proudPapa at September 9, 2007 12:31 PM [link]

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the current market turmoil is "identical" in many ways to that which occurred in 1987 and 1998, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Friday. - He said "The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987." He made that comment on Thursday.

We had recessions following these periods in the "01" year.

Well, these kind of statements is what leads me to look for the recession to be officially announced in 2010 or 2011.

I believe in both these periods tech did well leading up to the R's.

Also, by the time you have the negative growth numbers which typicaly define the recession, we will already be halfway through(laggard numbers from prev qtrs).

So, a recession could start in 2010 but not be officially announced until late 2011.

Posted by: dabonenose at September 9, 2007 12:49 PM [link]

Mark Hulbert in Barron's this week...

The top 10 risk adjusted market timing newsletters recommend 92% equities.

The worst rated newsletters recommend 0%.

Posted by: bb at September 9, 2007 3:10 PM [link]

A couple of "data for dummy" questions:

1. Were Mark Hulbert's indicators reliable before the DOT-COM crash?

2. Were the "top market timers" sensitive to the impending crash?

Thanks.

Posted by: northvan at September 9, 2007 5:11 PM [link]

Conflicting information exists on non oxide recovery at Mesquite. I go with the permabull deer in the headlight group that likes to read or hear what they want to hear. Consider this for recoveries which will improve numbers significantly over what may be in the black box at this time. This is speculation only. Do your own DD.

http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:...lnk&cd=1&gl=us

IMO the recoveries of oxide material will be at 90 % also. JMO.
If recoveries are higher by let's say 15% look out.If you move 8,600,000 tons of dirt to get .6 g/ t recovery for 165,000 ounces but all of a sudden you are getting 6.9 tenths of a gram recovery you will yield 189,000 ounces which is 24,000 free ounces. 24,000 X 700 = $16,800,000 divided by 140,000,000 share FD = another 12 cents per share income. Hmmmmmmmm. Just musing while enjoying some wine so all numbers are subject to total derision by wiser posters.I have read several reports from the old Proteus Capital report no longer available to other filings and guesstimates and I think the recoveries will be a lot higher than what the market place is using. Again JMDO.

Posted by: golden7 at September 9, 2007 7:27 PM [link]

golden7, that's a strange link. Are you chasing down a virus?

Here's a link to what I consider a fair way to deal with the mortgage problem:

http://tinyurl.com/2859qs

I like it because it faces up to the fact that houses have become too expensive as a result of the slime, and need to return to a rational pricing mechanism.

Posted by: cyderman at September 9, 2007 7:58 PM [link]

Thanks ProudPapa..

It is interesting to have inflation and recession fears at the same time... - that gives us STAGFLATION...

If the yen carry trade unwind mellows out and helps the markets go up.. then maybe the fed will not raise rate... and that will strengthen our USD... Gold (and the miners) could continue to rise, but may get caught up in its trading range some more...

Time will tell...

Hope all are well...

Cheers

Posted by: SoccerMatt at September 9, 2007 8:11 PM [link]

Japan is down 2.56% right now...

Posted by: onlineaces at September 9, 2007 8:50 PM [link]

NIKKEI 225 (^N225) is down 2.56% right now...

Posted by: onlineaces at September 9, 2007 8:51 PM [link]

Yen is strengthening..N225 down earlier as much as 2.7%..Nymex Oct 07 NG futures down 0.25 to 5.25..only two places to hide right now appear to be gold and cash..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at September 9, 2007 9:06 PM [link]

It's early, but the tell of NZD to JPY is also showing carry trade unwinding. (NZDJPY now down to 77.03)

Yen/USD has a 112 handle right now.

2nd, FXY hedge is holding up along with gold.

Posted by: Seamus at September 9, 2007 9:23 PM [link]

Seamus,

Hello, If you read this tonight please post link to quotes ??

thanks much..

"It's early, but the tell of NZD to JPY is also showing carry trade unwinding. (NZDJPY now down to 77.03)

Yen/USD has a 112 handle right now.

2nd, FXY hedge is holding up along with gold."

Posted by: moneygenie at September 9, 2007 11:02 PM [link]

here's one link quoting 112.99 Yen/USD

http://tinyurl.com/2edfek

Posted by: 2nd_ave at September 9, 2007 11:20 PM [link]

Here's a 5 day, 1 min chart of the Yen Dec07, courtesy Ino.com

http://tinyurl.com/3cym8x

Posted by: omphalos at September 9, 2007 11:28 PM [link]

Hi guys, I've been reading a lot, and trying to figure out where to go next. How do you take that next step? I mean, I'm looking at how to start trading with a full time commitment. I'm thinking of trying to make one trade a week to get things moving in the right direction, cutting my losses and sticking to a plan. That leaves a lot of time- 10-15hrs a day to read, follow the market, and come up with a trading system. How did you guys make that push to full time trading? Would love to hear how some of you got started. Assuming the sky doesn't fall on tuesday, I'll come back here with my plans on wednesday before I make my trade and throw it by you guys.

Bill, I wanted to say thanks for this forum and letting us know every day what you think about the market. As much as I value your opinion and everyone else who posts here. I will always take it with a grain of salt and compare it with other sources in determining my own opinion(I assumed this was common sense). I can't believe people became upset last week when you changed your opinion on a stock. You have your own mind and can think any way you want with it and I think most people here would agree that we are appreciative for it.

Posted by: Green arrow at September 10, 2007 1:25 AM [link]

Green Arrow,

What I found most helpful when I was first learning(I'm still learning) was first learn about the different types of investments. Then learn how different market internals work. Then learn how each of the different markets work. Then learn about what is going on in the USA, and the world right now. From that point you should be able to read the news and know how the markets will react.

Here's a couple test questions:

1. What would happen if the US Fed raised rates at the next meeting rather than keep them the same, or lower them? Who and what would that change effect? Why?

2. What would happen if the Bank of Japan raised their rates? How would that effect Japan? How would it effect the US? Who would it effect in the US?

3. What agricultural food producer(beef, corn, etc) has the strongest fundamentals? What fundamentals would you look at to determine that?

4. Is it better for you to invest now in the company you found in question #3? or McDonalds? or Walmart? or a junior gold producer? or none of the above? and why? what about next month? and next year? What information do you need to make that judgement?

I would advise you start with questions, and challenge yourself to find answers. Then find your answer. Also, once you've found some answers ask the community here. Often you'll find something you missed.

Hope this helps Green Arrow.

-Quentusrex

p.s. All,
Hoosier and I almost have a releasable version of the excel sheet ready. It'll include all the needed files, with step by step directions.

Posted by: Quentusrex at September 10, 2007 2:32 AM [link]

Here are some links for the USD/Yen and the USD/Eur

Yen:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/12/14/intraday.stm

Euro:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/12/13/intraday.stm

Posted by: Quentusrex at September 10, 2007 2:35 AM [link]

Quentusrex, Thanks for the input. I've read a ton on the basics. From Benjamin Grahams 'Intelligent Investor', my old favorite Peter Lynch, to the lighthearted stuff put out by the Motelyfool brothers. This past month I read 'Way of the Turtle' by C.Faith, 'Rule #1' by Phil Town and currently working on an old Van K. Tharp book and 'The Case for Gold' by Ron Paul. I'm looking to move past the basics to becoming a full time trader(not that I even know what the true definition of that is!). How many trades did you start out making? what kind of trades worked the best? My interests seem to lean towards options swing trading in a trend following model. But I don't know if that is better than any other method. If you could start all over again, where would you concentrate?

I wonder what has worked best for you guys? How many trades do you try to make a week or a month? Have you found one model to work better than others? Is there any model I should stay far away from? I love billcara2.com and am trying to further my understanding of technical analysis, I have a lot to learn in that area and am having trouble figuring out how to best put it all together from day to day.

Posted by: Green arrow at September 10, 2007 4:19 AM [link]

Any opinions as to why silver's is trailing gold? Doesn't silver usually lead gold? Is silver underpriced right now?

Posted by: onlineaces at September 10, 2007 7:19 AM [link]

I have just posted some ideas on the outlook for equities in a blog article entitled "Whiplashing of Wall Street - where to now?"

The link for the discussion is: http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/09/10/whiplashing-of-wall-street-%e2%80%93-where-to-now/

Posted by: prieur at September 10, 2007 8:03 AM [link]

JPY/USD has now reversed to 113.49...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at September 10, 2007 8:10 AM [link]

December gold up $4.20 at $713.90 an ounce on Nymex.

October NG has recovered to 5.43 from an overnight low of 5.249.

Posted by: 2nd_ave at September 10, 2007 8:30 AM [link]

GFI pre-market bid 16.64...if you're holding a ST position i would be inclined to take the 2.8% jump over friday's close...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at September 10, 2007 8:34 AM [link]

Green Arrow:
Trading without a basic understanding of charts is like going to the moon without calculus. Pretty dangerous. And the idea of options and leverage without a basic system and being able to trade/invest in stocks first seems pretty risky to me.

The truth is, trading, even trading often, isn't as "active" as you may think. The market dictates the pace, number of trades is only relevant to what the market does, and as you surely have noticed, many experienced longer term investors here would council you to slow down, be patient and wait for some good values.

Haste makes waste. Take your time or Mr. Market will take your money.

Posted by: Craig at September 10, 2007 8:59 AM [link]

moneygenie

Reference NZDJPY “tell” go to Yahoo finance and type in NZDJPY=X as the symbol. Click on a 5 day chart (and other time periods) to see the trend. Last night, trading in Asia will show up under part of Sunday and then continue into Monday.

http://tinyurl.com/27vy8t

As you can see from above chart link, early trading Monday in Asia (Sunday on the chart) indicated carry trade unwinding, then changed and has since reversed, but still below where it has been most of the summer (check the three month chart).

Currencies—looks like a number of posters already listed numerous links. Yahoo, Ft.com, WSJ, Reuters, many others work well.

For a quick snapshot of prices, I use Reuters http://today.reuters.com/Investing/Currencies.aspx .

I use ADVFN to watch the currency trading.

A couple of years ago, Bill mentioned ADVFN (www.advfn.com) for different quotes. Membership is free and you can receive delayed (not sure, but maybe 10-15 minutes) quotes on currencies as well as stocks. Real-time access is very reasonable, if you are going to access frequently. I find my ADVFN currency watch list monitor helpful as I list 8 currencies making up the USD index (DX) and can observe the price changes.

Posted by: Seamus at September 10, 2007 9:00 AM [link]

Seamus,

I use ADVFN.com realtime service every day, and find it to be exceptional value.

Posted by: Bill Cara at September 10, 2007 10:12 AM [link]

September 8, 2007

Saturday’s Commentary & Chat, 09/08/2007 8:01 AM ET

Discourse

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