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September 25, 2007
Cara’s Tuesday Report, Sept. 25, 2007, 9:15 AM
Market Chat
On Monday after the 11:00am ET deadline from the GM workers passed, they hit the picket lines where they will stay until a labor agreement is reached between the auto maker and the United Auto Workers. The UAW remains staunch in waiting for a "fair and equitable" deal, according to union Pres. Ron Gettelfinger.
Trading was quiet as the DJIA (-61.1), Nasdaq Composite (-3.3), and S&P 500 (-8.0) turned negative following the GM walk-out.
Gains in the Tech sector ($XCI +0.40 pct) were outweighed by a very weak Financial sector (XLF -1.39 pct). Banks ($BKX -1.62 pct) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD -2.14 pct) were weak. The big loser on the day was the Airlines ($XAL -5.41 pct).
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.57 in August from +0.03 in July, which signals a rapid slowing of economic growth.
On the deal front, Yamana Gold (AUY) has acquired Meridian Gold (MDG) for a $3.6 billion cash-and-stock deal, putting Yamana into the list of first tier goldminers.
Deutsche Bank AG (DB) reported they may have to write-down a EUR29 billion loan portfolio by EUR1.7 billion.
Dell Inc (DELL) announced starting in October, the company will sell its PCs and notebooks in China through GOME Group, the country's largest electronics retailer.
US Treasury prices traded in very tight ranges, while the previously weak USD rebounded versus the Euro.
Other than the GM strike action, Monday was unremarkable. I had mentioned the capital flowing into foreign oil stocks, and yesterday saw China giants PTR and CEO jump +8.3 pct and +6.6 pct respectively. As Dr. Joe (Xiou) would say, respectfully. :-)
Today, traders will be focused on the US Existing Home Sales data.
The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Monday session Cara 100 gainers.
Here are Cara 100 losers from Monday.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Monday session. The New Highs list is growing. Watch the Distribution Zone for Sell Alerts. Successful traders sell into strength (and buy into weakness), like any businessperson would do.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes.
It pays to watch the price and volume extremes, ie, Money Flow, especially when markets start trending. Note how enthusiastic traders have become, with price increases on huge volume expansions.
Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website is updated later in the morning.
I am appreciative to the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc for providing the Cara 100 summaries.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that traded Monday with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values:
“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
International Equity Markets Review
Asia-Pacific
The indexes across Asia-Pacific equity markets were mostly positive today except for Shanghai and Hong Kong which took a breather to consolidate recent gains.
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
The Nikkei Dow did not trade on Monday. Today, there was a small gain to 16401.
The N225 was well over 18000 in July.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Today, the Singapore STI was down -0.39 pct at 3625, trading down at the close, but still very strong in the morning.
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
The Shanghai Composite lost -1.08 pct to 5425.88, but the intra-day 5509.23 was a high.
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .
The Hong Kong market was down -0.64 pct in today’s session, closing at 26382, but was very strong in the morning.
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Today, the Bombay Stock Exchange BSE 30 Sensex index gained +0.32 pct to 16899.54, which is a fresh record high.
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
The All Ordinaries index of Australia gained +0.46 pct today to close at 6490.90, which is a new record high.
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
There is very weak trading in Europe today (9:03am ET).
Traders in Europe are concerned with the risky state of the banking and credit markets there, but are also awaiting the US econ data today. The oils and miners also sold off.
Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.
The FTSE is down -0.98 pct at 6402.8 today in mid session (9:04am ET 2:04pm GMT).
US Dollar Review
Here is the chart of the recent trading.
The trade-weighted USD is trading a little weaker at 78.431 at 8:34am ET, and remains soft.
Oil Review
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Here is the e-miNY Nov-07 Crude Oil chart.
Crude Oil is presently (about 8:38am) at 80.075, down from Friday’s spike to almost 82.5. I’m glad I spend some time in the WIR on the weekend to put the knock on oil prices and the high trading price of (Cara 100) XOM.
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.
Spot gold is presently (about 9:11am ET) at 727, down about -5 since yesterday morning. It seems to be tracking oil down, but not following the weaker USD for some reason.
Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.
Spot silver is weaker today (9:10am ET), presently at 13.39, down -20 cents in 24 hours, but a bit stronger since 7:30am ET.
I like the Kitco.com charts btw, but also need the ones at Yahoo Finance, StockCharts.com, BillCara2.com and ADVFN.com before making any opinion.
Here is the The Goldminers stock index chart.
Wrap-up
Yesterday morning the US equity markets were in positive ground until the GM strike action was announced. GM stock, which had been pushing up the DJIA, then started to pull it down. That’s not a sufficient response to make me think this market has switched from Bull to Bear phase in the short and intermediate term. Yes, long-term, I think the Bear has started, and I think the next intermediate-term sell-off will be a bigger downwave than the one a couple months ago. That’s usually how Bear markets operate as more traders as a pct of the whole turn bearish.
Today, I will join the international bright lights of Citi at the King Eddy Hotel in Toronto (one of my favorites) to hear what the biggest HB&B has to say. A year ago, I found the discussion and individual conversations refreshingly candid. I expect more of the same today.
Have a good day.
Citi Capital Markets Symposium
12:30 p.m. Lunch: Credit Markets
• The re-pricing of risk
• Implications and outlook
1:30 p.m. Multi Strategy
• Investing outside the style box
• Derivates and implications for equity movement
• Enhance and protect portfolio returns
3:00 p.m. Adapting execution styles in a changing market structure
4:00 p.m. Louise Yamada, #1 ranked market technician
5:00 p.m. Cocktails
Break out sessions and one on ones available on the following topics:
• Credit Markets
• Derivatives/Multi-Strategy
• Electronic Execution
• Foreign Exchange
• Futures
• Program Trading
Guest Speakers
Richard Salditt – Credit Market Specialist
Leon Gross – Derivative Specialist
Camellia Lowry – Equity Derivative Specialist
Stavros Siokos – Electronic Execution Specialist
Scott Peng – Interest Rate Specialist
Dushyant Chadha – Derivative Trading Specialist
Louise Yamada – President, LY Advisors
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 25, 2007 09:15:42 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market , Cara's Daily Commentary