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September 27, 2007

Cara’s Thursday Report, Sept. 27, 2007, 9:30 AM

Market Chat

Yesterday, the DJIA (+99.5 +0.72 pct), S&P (+8.2 +0.54 pct), and Nasdaq Composite (+15.6 +0.58 pct) finished higher with Discretionary Spending (XLY +1.43 pct) and Basic Materials (XLB +1.25 pct) leading the rally.

As a result of the GM/UAW labor deal, General Motors (GM +9.36 pct), Ford (F +6.47 pct), Auto & Truck Parts (+2.21 pct) and Tires (+3.64 pct) were among the leading stocks and industry groups.

Rumor also played a role in the market rise yesterday. Bear Stearns (BSC) led a late rally in the Financial sector (XLF) after rumors surfaced that Warren Buffett will take a 20 pct holding.

On the deal side, the discrepancies between pre and post credit crunch valuations are in plain sight.

Yesterday, there were reports that Fremont General (FMT -19.30 pct) investors are not ready to close its planned $80 million purchase of preferred stock in Fremont Investment & Loan. And, Bank of America Corp. (BAC +0.38 pct) is now reconsidering terms of the $25 billion buyout of student lender SLM Corp. (SLM -2.68 pct).

China Shenhua Energy raised CNY66.58 billion (US$8.9 billion) from its initial public offering (IPO) of A shares, making it China's largest share financing to date.

US Durable Goods Orders fell by -4.9 pct, which was greater than forecasts of a -3 pct decline. That data shows that the demand for expensive goods declined in August along with increased concerns over the credit markets.

The final revision to US 2Q GDP, due out today, is seen placing annual growth at +3.8 pct, down from the +4.0 pct revised guestimate in August.

Treasury prices traded in tight ranges with bids for short-term structured notes. The $USD strengthened with Yen carry trades unwinding.

Crude Oil futures prices ($WTIC) dropped at first and then recovered the $80/bbl mark ($80.30 +0.97 pct) after the Department of Energy reported crude oil weekly inventory rose by +1.8M barrels, gasoline inventories increased +600K barrels, and distillates increased by +1.6M barrels. Decreased refinery capacity to 86.9 pct from 89.6 pct helped the price recovery on the day.

Earlier in the day, the Asia-Pacific equity markets finished mixed before European shares traded higher right from the opening with the pre-open news that GM/UAW had resolved their strike issues.


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar


The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Wednesday session Cara 100 gainers.


Here are Cara 100 losers from Wednesday.


Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Wednesday session. The New Highs list is growing. Watch the Distribution Zone for Sell Alerts. Successful traders sell into strength (and buy into weakness), like any businessperson would do.


Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes.

There has been a pick-up in trading volume in the US equity market following the FOMC decision to cut rates -50 basis points this month. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes, ie, Money Flow, especially when markets start trending. Note how enthusiastic traders have become, with price increases on huge volume expansions, but some stocks are being sold as heavily well.


Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus


There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website is updated later in the morning.

I am appreciative to the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc for providing the Cara 100 summaries.


Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

RSI > 70 (12 of 38)

RSI < 30 (1)

Look at (Cara 100) Whirlpool (WHR). It has the lowest Daily RSI-7 value. For a while back in May-June, I opined there were things going on in the stock that I could not believe. That was an easy one to sell in the Over-bought Distribution Zone with subsequent Sell-Alert.


Here are the Cara 100 stocks that traded Wednesday with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

Note the gap open after the GM/UAW agreement. Even with weakness on the close, the DJIA jumped +100 points to 13878.


NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Tech was very strong again yesterday.


International Equity Markets Review

Asia-Pacific

The indexes across Asia-Pacific equity markets were positive today. More new all-time record highs.

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow traded up today by +2.41 pct to 16832.

The N225 was well over 18000 in July.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Today, the Singapore STI was up +1.77 pct at the close.


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the Deepak Lalwani weekly report on the India market:


Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Solid green (up) arrows trading in Europe today (9:34am ET).


Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.


US Dollar Review

Here is the chart of the recent trading.

This morning, the USD has taken a nose-dive, presently at 78.261.


Oil Review

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Here is the e-miNY Nov-07 Crude Oil chart.


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Spot gold is now at 734.45, and looking to move higher.


Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

Spot silver is now at 13.54 (9:39am ET)

Recent Spot Silver chart.

I like the Kitco.com charts btw, but also need the ones at Yahoo Finance, StockCharts.com, BillCara2.com and ADVFN.com before making any opinion.


Here is the The Goldminers stock index chart.

Yesterday I opined, “Should the USD strengthen here again today (which it did), I expect some selling among the miners.” They did sell off a bit. But that sets up a buying opportunity. This morning, after 10 minutes, $XAU is up +1.67 pct to 167.77.


Wrap-up

I had errands to run this morning. A wedding is upcoming on Sat.

Have a good day.

btw, after I published my commentary on healthcare this morning, my system was overrun by spam and virus attacks. So be it. WebMD.com was a favorite. You know, these are the same Americans who preach the benefits of democracy and free speech -- until you voice an opinion they don't want to hear.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 27, 2007 09:30:53 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market , Cara's Daily Commentary