Bill,
I caught some of the Ben and Hank Dog and Pony Show yesterday too. Unfortunatly Mr. Paul has about a snowballs chance in Hell of getting the nomination. With HB&B and Friends and family controlling the GOP. Like I said yesterday this country is in deep doo.

WGI

Western Goldfields is noted by TD Waterhouse to have an intermediate-term bullish technical indication. They're identifying a Bottom Triangle with a target price range of $4.10 - $4.30.

I'm long, so I'm lovin' it!

Link to Ron Paul's comments from yesterday:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhglwvE50cg

In response, BB says," ... I agree with you that an economy cannot grow in a healthy stable way when inflation is out of control, and we will certainly make sure that that doesn't happen." Magic!

Purplejacket: The graphic showing gold gaining in the first 30 days after a fed cut and then declining while USD did the inverse, was on Bloomberg, so it may be available there. It wasn't so much a chart as historic levels following rate cuts, so long term charts of USD and POG and dates of cuts would render the answer.

They did note, like others probably would here, that there was one exception to those results (where POG went up), and that is, IMO, the model/conditions we are following now.
That's the trouble with financialtainment TV.

CFC- Morningstar positive on the company:

"My colleague, Erin Swanson, covers Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC - News), the largest mortgage lender in the U.S. It has been caught in a barrage of negative sentiment surrounding its ability to borrow money to fund its operations. Swanson thinks it will not only survive, but that it will emerge stronger in the future. In nutshell, Swanson argues that with the departure of many players from the mortgage market, those who will stay in the market for the long run, like Countrywide, will benefit in a consolidated market. In addition, Swanson finds great comfort in the fact that Countrywide doesn't rely entirely on short-term funding, but rather has a diverse funding base unlike several of the mortgage lenders that have "walked the plank." Countrywide is one of our top picks."

Full article provides an overview of the US banking sector:

http://tinyurl.com/2jqj9j

from the globe and mail
high oil prices, everyone starting to agree??
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070921.IBREGULY21/TPStory/?query=eric+reguly

Brazilification in action! Nice charts.

http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=russwinter&nextdate=7%2f3%2f2006+23%3a59%3a59.999

As Bill's charts show above, this is why it has been so hard to make money shorting US stocks for the last few years. Even if you are right about a stock's value being out of line with it's price, instead of the price falling to match it's value like it would in most countries, instead the dollar falls to bring the price in line with the value. This is a strong advantage that the US has being the world's reserve currency. If this does change as is starting to be suggested, watch out below. If it does not, I think you will see the stock market muddle along with the US dollar falling enough to keep the value of the companies up.

Here's the chart which I think shows it best - the S&P in Euros.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/spx_yen_euro_01.jpg

Congratulation, friends to the north! Our money is now just as worthless as yours is. More even!

When I was a kid growing up in the north east, we would get lots of Canadian quarters in our change for some reason. This was weird because, no one accepted Canadians for payment for anything; I figured a bunch of ice-road truckers were bringing 'em down here to try to save a few cents on newspapers or cigarettes.

Last time I had a "real job" one of my Canadian gf's mentioned that she made 25 large as a secretary at a manufacturing co. I calculated the exchange rate in my head and proudly announced that my (low) NY salary was the equivalent of 90 thousand Canadian (at a 70 cent C dollar).

Your money used to be a joke. Now ours is too.

novice- (regarding your post from last night)

"I'm actually on the brink of quitting law in a high paying international law firm and running my own investment adviser company."

one of my younger brothers also started out in an international law firm. i remember having dinner with him in SF in 1991 when he stopped over on his way to taiwan. at the time neither of us really knew much about our futures. he in particular wasn't necessarily thrilled with his firm, but wanted to spend some time in asia. over the next few years, he developed an interest in corporate finance, made a lateral transfer, and after some experience found a position with another company working on mergers and acquisitions. eventually ended up in HK heading up the department. was asked in 2006 to start up an M&A operation for yet another firm, made partner upon hire, and calls his own shots.

my way of saying you're just starting out...why not let someone else fund your way to becoming your own boss? network along the way, develop your interests, and you may end up becoming an investment adviser with a larger client base and more resources...

Here is a valid description of part of the moral issue involved here from Michael Panzer's blog, quoting Satyajit Das:

"Rather than joining the crowd that blames the mess on American slobs who took on more mortgage debt than they could afford and have endangered the world by stiffing lenders, he points a finger at three parties: regulators who stood by as U.S. banks developed ingenious but dangerous ways of shifting trillions of dollars of credit risk off their balance sheets and into the hands of unsophisticated foreign investors; hedge and pension fund managers who gorged on high-yield debt instruments they didn't understand; and financial engineers who built towers of "securitized" debt with math models that were fundamentally flawed.
"Defaulting middle-class U.S. homeowners are blamed, but they are merely a pawn in the game," he says. "Those loans were invented so that hedge funds would have high-yield debt to buy." '

Some other parts of the moral issue are: that Congress amended the bankruptcy laws in a manner that will deny the vast majority of American slobs relief from the unbearable debts that have been crassly created under this scheme; an unknowable number of pension funds have been undermined by this bad debt; an unknowable number of workers and retirees who have established life styles based on generous pensions or expectations thereof will suffer a reduction or loss of pension income; and an unknowable number of taxpayers will be forced to pay for the deficiencies in public pension funds caused by this bad debt.

Yes, BC. I agree that Ron Paul should be President. No one else. In my dreams.

Ftse350 mining is up .5%....tracks moderately with gdx. 4 out of 9x in the past three years the ratio of pog to miners has gone past a line of resistance. This, should it penetrate the line, favors the miners with a continuation pattern. Like a Rorschach, danger of seeing what you want.

More like catch up for me is driving risk. Anyone actively rotating sectors within a good displine I think could have had 29-39% year..of course china would have been a key player. My goal is a meager 12-13%. Are goals a disruptive influence, forcing poor judgment?

GFI looks to be actively trading up...

I'll be looking forward to the weekend.

I think Ron Paul would make a good VP or Treasury Sec'y in a Kucinich administration.

Hey, we whacky liberals can dream, too!

Peter Hodson of Sprott and Hugh Cleland, opinions on WGI/WGDFF worth their salt:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Globe says Western Goldfields should bloom profitably

2007-09-21 06:52 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, Sept. 21, edition that Sprott Growth Fund portfolio manager Peter Hodson says buy Western Goldfields. The Globe's Maureen Darrigo writes in the BNN Market Call column that Western Goldfields climbed 27 cents Thursday to close on the Toronto Stock Exchange at $3.19. Western Goldfields stock has a wide one-year trading range of $1.40 to $3.19. With the former Barrick management team restarting the Mesquite gold mine in California next year Mr. Hodson is optimistic. He says, "With management being a large shareholder and the prospect for the mine good, the discounted valuation should improve when production starts." In a general outlook Mr. Hodson believes companies that can consistently deliver performance in this volatile market will be rewarded, as growth becomes scarcer. He says, "In addition, in a declining interest rate environment, growth companies should be worth more." Mr. Hodson's top five holding are Timminco, Yamana Gold, Thompson Creek Metals and Omrix Biopharmaceuticals. Northern Rivers Innovation Fund portfolio manager Hugh Cleland recommended Western Goldfields in The Globe on Sept. 11 when its stock was trading at $2.70

Question for more experienced traders about remark I just heard on Bloomberg. Do all options get marked on Friday's open for expiration?

two stories re contrarian investing in action:

http://tinyurl.com/2gslbg

"[GS] invested $2 billion (that's billion with a "b") of its own money in one of its hedge funds that was hemorrhaging...The payoff? Its $2 billion investment has grown by a cool $320 million in the short time that has elapsed since then a 16% return in just one month, in other words."

"In the newsletter arena, the closest analogy to Goldman's contrarian coup, at least that I can think of, is what the late Al Frank did on Oct. 20, 1987. Frank was the editor of The Prudent Speculator..Oct. 20, 1987, of course, was the day after Black Monday, the worst single-day crash in U.S. stock market history..Frank's highly leveraged portfolio fell 57% on that day alone, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest's calculations.
That's a whole lot of blood.
What did Frank do? Far from running for the hills, which was what almost everyone else was doing, he urged subscribers to buy.
That took guts, and his newsletter's ranking was amply rewarded for having them.
Since then, the Prudent Speculator is far and away in first place for performance among the newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest."

Western Goldfields plans to offer 9.8M shares at C$3.05.

LOL! WGDFF sold 6000 shares premkt....THAT is a first. Usually trades zero before open.

2nd, it was fairly easy for GS to profit if by any remote chance they knew that rates would come down 0.50%. I just wish I could invest knowing the future too.

I also read that they profited from falling mortgages.

Alan Greenspan (on The Daily Show, 18 Sep 2007) on the gold standard, Central Banks, interest rates, money supply, inflation and (non-)free markets.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igTaBT6SAaU

Key points:

Central Banks are not needed if an economy is on the Gold Standard.

The amount of money relates to the amount of inflation in an economy.

An interest rate cut is a choice made in favour of those who invest/gamble on the stock markets, rather than those who work and save money in banks.

Shark,,,,You could use Canadian quarters as a nickel in a vending machine.

Funny,,,now you hardly see them showing up at all.

They must be making it to the Canadian piggy banks now instead.

Saw this on www.digg.com today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance

Canada was up $20B in 2006.

157 Turkey -25,990
158 India -26,400
159 France -38,000
160 Australia -41,620
161 United Kingdom -57,680
162 Spain -98,600
163 United States -862,300

n2son - Options continue to trade (& fluctuate in price) all day on expiration Fridays. Perhaps the Bloomberg remark related to financial futures?

UNG- taking the remainder off at 39.41...adding to HERO at 27.06 > 300,000 block "sell" at the open, but sticking with the insiders on this one...

When looking at the currencies a dropping USD may look like it is on par with the CND, but in reality things are still quite different. The cost of a gallon of gasoline in Canada is around 4 dollars a gallon, in the U.S. it is 3 dollars a gallon (Taxes umm). The cost of Milk is around 4 dollars a gallon in the U.S. it is around 3 dollars. A cheap pair of pants cost 40$ dollars CND, in the U.S. 25$. My point is the USD still has purchasing power.

The Fall 2007 Rally by Ken Fisher

http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2007/0917/210.html

Don't let this fall's rally whiz right by you before you take a close look at stocks from Asia. The midsummer correction - at one point on Aug 16 the Morgan Stanley World Index was down 12.5% from its 2007 high - provided a great time to get into stocks on the other side of the dateline. If you don't own this region, now is the time to get in. When the rally resumes, Asia will lead. These stocks are to this market what tech stocks were to the mid-1990s.

What makes me so sure that we're in a rally, not a long-running decline? Four things.

The first has to do with the shape of a bull market termination. The final peak does not arrive sharply. It tends to have a gentle upward slope, as the final but diminishing round of suckers is drawn in. And then the decline (usually) begins with a gentle slope, too (October 1987 was the exception proving the rule - over almost instantly), as some buyers continue to come in even after the bull market is over. The bull market leading up to the July 16 peak was too sudden and the plunge too sharp to presage a real bear market.

Second, bear markets don't start from old news. In this case the old news is that many subprime borrowers are going to default on their mortgages. While this misfortune is still unfolding, the basic facts have been out for a while. A fundamental rule of markets is that old news runs out of power. It takes new information to move stock prices.

Third, it usually takes a severe credit crunch to set a genuine bear market in motion. This credit crunch, at least for corporate borrowers, is not severe. You measure crunch by the spread in yields between junk bonds and Treasury bonds of like maturity. In 2000 that spread widened by three to four percentage points, a harbinger of both a broad tumble in stock prices and an economic contraction. In that case, moreover, the widening spread came atop rising Treasury interest rates - weak corporate borrowers had two strikes against them. Contrast that with what's happening now. Junk spreads widened by only a percentage point before going back the other way, and much of the widening was from a fall in Treasury rates, hardly bearish. This is a phony credit crunch.

Fourth, the media always jump on a short-term correction but rarely wake up to a long-term bear market in its early phases. One form of this media attention is trotting out the perma-bears to deliver their "I told you so" speeches to the tv cameras, with scenes of the New York Stock Exchange running in the background. Generally speaking, the friendly interviewer conducting the show neglects to ask the bear when he first turned bearish and how much the market is up since then.

As with all corrections, a few months from now we will be wondering what the fuss was about. And Asian and Indian stocks will be much higher.

*DJ Hercules Offshore Tgt Cut To $26 From $29: Tristone>HERO

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dow Jones Real-Time News for InvestorsSM
09:56 a.m. 09/21/2007

explains a lot of the selling...still sticking with the insiders....

Thanks Bill for sharing your extensive knowledge with us. I've been studying the financial situation of the US for quite some time and I'm starting to think that the only way to force the government to cut spending is for people to stop buying treasury bonds. If the dollar falls much more that's exactly what will happen. The only other way out is for all of us to stand up and stop taking government handouts. What right do we have to our childeren's and grandchildren's money anyway? Imagine the budget surplus then. I think it's the only American thing to do. What do you all think?

indptrader,

It is difficult to make a direct comparison between many items priced in Canada vs. US because there may be hidden subsidies in one country, but not in the other on any particular item.

For instance, tax on gasoline in Canada is more transparent; you see it in the purchase price. I read somewhere that prior to the Iraq war the cost of maintaining a military presence in the mid-east in order to keep oil flowing to the U.S. was (in this study) $1.17 per gallon. That subsidy doesn't appear in the price of gasoline, but in an increasing fiscal deficit and current account deficit. The subsidy (tax) is deferred to children and grandchildren of all Americans, not just the gasoline consumer.

Thus, Canadian gasoline purchases tend to be more of a user-pay system.

HERO- 12 analysts, range on target prices from 29 to 59...so it must be the guy with the original target of 29 taking it down to 26...that holds as much weight as the guy with the 59 target raising it to 65...

jasper- is everything down because you hit the sell button this morning ;)

noront resources (not.v)- up another 18%?

Vorlon- thank you for your analysis..

http://rsi.korvus.net/

ummm... is this not the cara 100?

someone put it in java, and it loads fast.

anyone know who this is?

and can someone check the numbers for accuracy?

Vorlon -

I always enjoy reading Ken Fisher's market assessment. Yet this bullish manifesto could be turned on its head. His first argument concedes that exceptions exist (esp. in a highly leverage environment like 87). Points 2/3: mortgage may be the fuse that lights the flammable house of cards. Most market particpants confess that nobody knows who ultimately holds the paper. The explosive derivative edifice built over the past few years is untested under stressful conditions. Finally, credit crunch (while circumscribed) was severe enough for all of the world's central banks to inject massive amounts of liquidity over the past 2 months. Is the danger over for good or just postponed?

His last point is a bit disingeneous: when is the last time anybody on CNBC asked a perma-bull to prove their worth and their conversion from bear to bull. Overall, permabulls are back to 2000 levels; so much for performance...

While I very much like his interest in emerging markets and especially Asia, it is easier to tell people to join in after the markets have come back from their lows than on Aug. 15/16.

JML

rob d, I don't know if it is or isn't, but the previous closing prices on some of the stocks are out of date, at least from what I can tell.

Bernanke basically thought he'd go "all in" with 2-7 off suit.

His move was clearly stupid; you don't cut rates into a commodity bull market, and you sure as hell don't do it sharply like he did.

I didn't think he'd do it. As an academic he had to know this had a high probability of turning out bad.

So the next question is, who forced his hand? I think it was the banks who got him to drop the safety features in the banking system by waiving the 10% affiliated entity caps. Once he did that his fate was sealed; he took what was going to be a few "affiliated entity" failures (bad but not catastrophic) and translated that into SYSTEMIC risk to the banking system. Dumb dumb dumb.

Moral hazard moral schmazard - the real issue is that when you've screwed every foreign holder of an asset to the tune of 9% in a year due to currency devaluation spiking your currency downward just begs them to say "screw this!" and run for the door.

The Gambit that Bernanke took is that it wouldn't happen, and that foreign buyers of treasuries would keep the long end from spiking upward in response to his cut - that is, the "Bond Market Vigilantes" were not temporarily absent; rather they had been killed off.

Unfortunately his bet got called, and now he's got a big problem because while the dollar went straight off the cliff the bond market went the wrong way on him as foreigners said "nada!" to propping this one up.

Now add to this that consumers are simply out of money. The MEW window is closed and yet some $6.5 trillion has been pumped into our GDP over the last five years via these MEWs. Now they're gone and can't come back, which means our GDP is due to contract materially. How much? Well, if the MEW contribution was a trillion five a year, and let's say 50% of that is gone, you have what - $750 billion? So what is that - 5, 6%?

Oi. Not good eh? When GDP growth was 4, subtract 5 or 6 from that and guess what - the number has a minus sign in front of that.

This ain't good.

So how do you fix it?

You can't. Pumping money just goes straight to inflation and now there's no cushion to play with in the FX space. The foreigners have taken their ball and gone home, and that's likely to continue.

Now what?

"What" is a recession, almost certainly a quite-nasty one. The Fed can't do jack about it either. If they continue to cut into this to attempt to stave it off we'll get the 1970s instead, which is even worse.

Of course this will create tremendous opportunity for the patient. If we get a 13% long bond again that will be the trade of the century, with STUNNING gains available to those who are wise enough to buy those suckers with both fists.

Never underestimate the ability of politically-driven people to do the most amazingly-stupid things.

The trick is to figure out how to protect your portfolio and more importantly your purchasing power. This will not be easy, as the Bear Market we are headed for is not going to be kind to either bulls or bears - Bear Markets never are, contrary to popular belief.

Just ask all the bears who got KILLED - twice - by Bernanke's shenanigans in the last few weeks.

This sort of volatility and similar "surprirses" are not going away any time soon.

Be careful and remember - at times like this the more important thing isn't return ON capital - its return OF capital.

i missed the low price of wgi but i guess i should buy it at this point. my question is really on aurilean. a lot of the analysts on bnn just think it is the biggest find in a long long time but the equador political thing is what is holding it back. from those of you who know much more than me what is your opinion? thank you.

number2son / OldGoat,

Most options expire at the end of the day on Friday, but some index options expire Friday morning. Here is a excerpt from an email my broker sent out Wed (and sends out before every expiration Friday):

September expiration is Friday the 21st. The last trading day for many cash-settled index options such as DJX, SPX, RUT, NDX and MNX options is tomorrow, Thursday, September 20th, with settlement prices determined by Friday morning's opening prints for the component stocks. The last trading day for the OEX, XEO, ETFs and all equity options is Friday, September 21st.

A List Of Crises And Outcomes
Author: Monty Guild

http://tinyurl.com/2etb5y

Credit crises are answered with monetary easing by government monetary authorities globally. The Fed and all central banks provide liquidity in various ways as the crisis unfolds in their country or in the world.

Let's list the crises over the past 20 years and see what the outcome of the liquidity pumping was. Did the liquidity injections save the world's economies from major recessions...or did it have the unintended consequence of creating a new series of bubbles?

CRISIS CAN CREATE BIG OPPORTUNITY

In 1990, the U.S. Savings & Loan crisis was followed by a recession.....creating a short bear market in the U.S.

In 1990, Japan's property bubble was followed by a recession....creating a long bear market in Japan.

In 2000, the U.S. tech stock collapse was followed by a recession....and created a bear market in the U.S.

The 1987 Crash was not followed by a recession....the injection of global liquidity to stave off recession created a great buying opportunity; the last great buying opportunity in Japanese stocks before they would peak in 1990. From 1987, the Japanese market rose by almost 100% over the next three years, and many stocks rose 5 fold.

The December 1994 Mexican currency crisis was not followed by a recession in U.S. It created a buying opportunity. Between 1995 and 2000 the S&P more than tripled and many stocks went up 6 fold.

In 1998, the Russian debt default and Long Term Capital crisis was not followed by recession in U.S. It created a buying opportunity...the last buying opportunity of tech bubble before its peak in 2000. Many tech stocks ran up by absurd amounts before the tech crash of 2000-2002.

Today, the expected outcome of the current credit crisis is a recession in U.S., but no worldwide recession. The liquidity being added, we believe may create the last great buying opportunity in commodities, and the developing world's stock markets before this bubble peaks some time in the 2010 to 2012 time frame. The liquidity created by all the central banks will flow to where the growth is strong, which is to the afore-mentioned markets.

WE EXPECT A BIG RUN UP IN COMMODITIES
AND FAST GROWING STOCK MARKETS

What we know:

1. A wave of liquidity is being unleashed.

2. Real Estate and bonds have already had their bubbles (created by an unprecedented 25 plus year decline in long-term interest rates).

3. The money being injected into the world economy will create inflation and the effects will be rising interest rates.... and big rises in the prices of commodities and some stocks (as people move to protect themselves from inflation).

We expect the current monetary madness to end in tears... but not before the wave of money being injected into the world's economies leads to a huge rise in the prices of precious metals, other commodities, well-managed currencies and stocks in the fast growing parts of the world. By that we mean India, Hong Kong, China, emerging Asia and parts of Latin America and the countries which provide the raw materials for global growth like Brazil, Canada and Australia.

REASONS TO BE BULLISH ON CHINA AND INDIA

1. People do not believe the growth can continue in China and India. They think that slower growth in the U.S. will derail them. This creates a chance for people to be underinvested in these markets, and when they realize how strong profits are they will belatedly invest.

2. GDP and corporate profits will grow rapidly in these two countries for the next two or three years at a minimum.

3. Chinese investors will shift into the H shares (Chinese shares trading in Hong Kong) which are not overvalued.

4. People want growth, and both of these countries have growth.

We have good-sized positions in India and in Hong Kong (we buy our Chinese stocks in Hong Kong where they are much more reasonably valued than in China). In Hong Kong, the same stocks sell at a 40% discount to its China price in Hong Kong.

2nd ave,
My wife has given me my orders to sell. I'm on the fence and hydrocodone may have dulled my listening skills.

Surprised no one commenting on not.v
http://tinyurl.com/2wkver

HERO looks interesting. Do you have fidelity platform? Research resource,there, might be helpful...though i'm sure you've already drilled down. How did you happen to locate this pick?

If I was bottom fishing in the Cara 100: GOL;TGP.

Interesting to hear about your own background. Music and finances; nice spectrum of interest.

2nd ave,
My wife has given me my orders to sell. I'm on the fence and hydrocodone may have dulled my listening skills.

re: not.v
http://tinyurl.com/2wkver

HERO looks interesting. Do you have fidelity platform? Research resource,there, might be helpful...though clearly you've already drilled down. How did you happen to locate this pick? An insider screen?

If I was bottom fishing in the Cara 100: GOL;TGP.

Interesting to hear about your own background. Music and finances; nice spectrum of interest.

Hi JML,

I shared the Ken Fisher article as he has a good proven track record, and to balance the "bearish" slant of most discussions here.

Heck, I am a Bear but the Bulls have been right so far...

2nd_ave,

Re GS contrarian-investment "success"

I recall recently reading in this very blog the story about the Goldman hedge fund that made $280 million in a single afternoon by buying the dip before the late-hour rally of August 16, or something along these lines. Then next day the Fed caved-in and started the printing presses (again).

So, although I do respect Hulbert's analysis overall, is this a textbook case of "contrarian analysis in action" or is it a textbook case of something else that should involve SEC investigation, assuming the allegations hold even partially true?

But then again one may claim that they simply read this blog and they only followed Bill's call to buy that dip soon thereafter :-).

For anyone playing the QID(shrt the QQQQ). If the QQQQ gets above 50.70, it will constitute a breakout above an ascending triangle(bearish for QID). JMHO

Dab

I own Aurelian. I think it is severely undervalued due to the political issues, which are overblown. The current mining minister is a moderate and supports large scale responsible mining in the manner of Brazil and Peru. There was just a minig congress where this was discussed. The elections are on Sept 30. If Correa gets a majority (not likely) he will rewrite the constitution. If he doesn't he promises to resign, which is not good for stability but may keep the status quo.

Drill results from FDN and El Tigre are due and so is a 43-101 calculation on FDN. There is tremendous exploration upside as they have found a very high grade deposit and the rest of the large district scale land package likely contains additional deposits. They just started drilling a target 700 meters north of FDN that has gold outcroppings on the surface.

jasper- HERO straight out of leisa's blog September 16: "HERO seems to be breaking out of a price channel. I like this stock. They purchased TODCO which I owned. Lots of insider buying, good fundamentals and good technicals. You might want to put it on a watch list. I own this stock in my non-taxable account."

"Music and finances; nice spectrum of interest." the two are closely related..both involve patterns and numbers..if you can transpose intervals into 12 keys you can recognize recurring chart patterns..

wife sounds like a smart lady...sell into this strength and think about re-entry later (either sooner or much later)...still holding not.v also?

Shopper,
I don't profess to know anything more than you do. I hold a small position in Aurelian and regret that I didn't pick up more during the market panic on August 16. I'm not worried about Ecuadorian politics. After getting submarined on my oils in Alberta this week, why would Ecuador be any scarier. Dynasty Metals (DMM) has jumped significantly this week and is approaching its 52 week high. It is on track to go into production before Aurelean does and clearly its shareholders aren't overly concerned with the Ecuadorian politics. DMM just announced a big private placement at its new high price level. I listened in on the DMM quarterly conference call a couple of months ago when the stock was under $6.00. I was impressed and didn't pull the trigger. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Finally, I like Peter Hodson and he likes ARU. Is ARU a $10 stock as many analysts (touts) opine? I think so. I'm hoping for a 10% pullback opportunity to double my stake in ARU and a 15% pullback to get into DMM. Disclosure: I'm wrong 40% of the time.

case- you're right..why don't we replace GS with cara's 8/16/07 blog...saved a copy of it..probably the best one-day experience i've had as a trader...recall craig buying wgdff at 1.85 that day

rob d,

I made the http://rsi.korvus.net site. I have something I wrote that pulls down the historical data from Yahoo Finance and does all the calculations. That said, right now it's on a web host that only serves static pages, so I have to update it manually. I have a server that can do it on the fly if I get around to setting it up, but I mostly put it up there to see if people were interested in having something like that. It isn't as powerful as the RSI spreadsheet, but it's pretty fast and easy to use.

Anyway, I hadn't updated it for a few days, so I'm doing that now. I am also adding a date to the top so you can tell when it was updated last. Let me know if you think this is useful enough that I should set it up to update daily.

korvus, i think it's great...please update.

everyone else, take a look
you can sort by RSI 7 d/w/m - and separate out those above or below the 70-30 lines. if you click the symbol you get a nice graph. It seems to be alot easier to use than the excel file floating around.

also, it would be great if you could list the source(s) of your data (on the page, so people know where you are getting it), and if you could enter your own symbols to check their RSI values.

thanks so much for your work.

ALOHA !!

Finger Lakes ... As the Aussies say "SPOT ON MATE"!! Problem is will the ME generation ever let go of their right to SPENDY HIGH LIFE? You have touched a "moral" issue few want to acknowledge, especially if you are a politician seeking votes from AARP! Many years ago I sent Pres Bush an e-mail stating that I would surrender any and all future Social Security benefits due me in exchange for an exemption from any future income taxes. A fair trade ... I never got a reply to this day ... I have a feeling the US government will have its cake and eat it too. I will be taxed to hell and they will quit paying Social Security to people in my tax bracket! You are correct ... we have no right to spend our country's future youth down the tubes!

THE SUPER RICH
I have been on the fringe of the super rich and powerful elites for many many decades now. I was always just out of touch it seemed. It was on both sides of my family. My Mother's side was the banking/financial elites like the Vanderbilts and on my Father's side were the industrial types like Hughes and Wrather.

My Uncle was a world famous NYC fashion designer. Prior to his passing he ordered flowers from us every week. After awhile some of his friends started ordering. We still get orders from his friends. In fact we just got an order today from one who wants flowers for a lady who will be receiving an award directly and in person from David Rockefeller on Oct. 4th in NYC. Can't say her name but I did look at her bio on Yahoo and she is a director of a large NYC foundation and has been a member of the Council On Foreign Relations for a very long time. I see she is very much tied into "councils" that focus on South American governments, especially Brazil. Funny Bill mentioned the Brazilian Real today ... she probably has a lot of them!

It makes me think back on my youth and I had lots of opportunity to either get into Chevron Oil or the NYC super rich if I changed my attitude and conformed to other people's ideas and morals and such. I ended up going my own seperate way and I rejected those "opportunities" (with strings)which was always a point of contention with my Father. I went the surfer/sailor life with no monetary support from my family for that choice. I laugh ... now I sell flowers to the super rich! HA! In a way I bite the hand that feeds me. As you know I rail against the elite power machine and their money system that keeps them in power! I doubt they know that when they call me up with an order? I wonder if they would still order flowers from me if they did know that? Hummmmmm???? Probably not ...

YIELD/RATE (%) 52-WEEK CHANGE IN
PCT. PTS
Interest Rate Last Wk Ago High Low 52-Wk 3-Yr
Federal-funds rate target 4.75 5.25 5.25 4.75 -0.50 3.25
Prime rate* 7.75 8.25 8.25 7.75 -0.50 3.25
Libor, 3-month 5.21 5.69 5.73 5.21 -0.18 3.29

Money market, annual yield 3.84 3.84 3.90 3.48 0.24 2.35

Five-year CD, annual yield 4.93 4.96 5.10 4.80 -0.03 0.88

30-year mortgage, fixed 6.06 6.05 6.57 5.67 0.06 0.64
15-year mortgage, fixed 5.74 5.72 6.22 5.46 0.03 0.88
Jumbo mortgages, $417,000-plus 7.13 7.07 7.38 6.01 0.84 1.40
Five-year adj mortgage (ARM) 6.19 6.08 6.36 5.53 0.40 1.72
New-car loan, 48-month 6.92 6.92 7.03 6.85 -0.02 1.04
Home-equity loan, $30,000 7.32 7.33 7.93 6.66 0.03 3.87

* Base rate posted by 75% of the nation's largest banks.
Source: Reuters, WSJ Market Data Group, Bankrate.com

sorry...ignore my last bad post. thought it preserve the formating. pls ignore.

"While I very much like his (Ken Fisher's) interest in emerging markets and especially Asia, it is easier to tell people to join in after the markets have come back from their lows than on Aug. 15/16."

Jumble, I've been reading Taming the Lion by Richard Farleigh who created some of the trading strategies used by the Australian bank that hired him after college and became the bank's biggest money-maker ever. Here's info re: Farleigh's book: http://www.harriman-house.com/pages/book.htm?BookCode=21815

One point that Farleigh makes is that he always waits for "the turn" before buying or selling, whether currencies, commodities, or stocks. This wait protects against buying or selling too soon.

I can't speak for Ken Fisher (from whom I've profited enormously over the years, btw) but I am willing to bet that he, too, waits for "the turn" before making his recommendations.

Vorlon -

I also like to understand opposing points of view and test my own positions against them. However, I find Fisher's contribution here relatively poor and a rehash of mainstream sell-side experts' pronouncements on CNBC/ uberbullish Forbes etc. In addition, this landscape has been dramatically changed by "Our Boy" Ben B.'s volte-face on Tuesday.

Like most with a bearish penchant, I found his interventionist power play unsavory (esp. after Aug. 16 short jamming) and bothersome for a lead proponent of self-adjusting markets. Of greater concern IMO is the lasting damage that such a behavior - if repeated - may cause to the central bank's credibility. An activist / unpredictable Fed that speaks through both sides of their mouth ends up hurting those it aims to protect. A quarter century of painstaking reputation building through kabuki-like actions could be wiped out during the upcoming fall. It should also put to bed the notion of any inflation targeting which requires a step back from markets, not a temperamental operator.

Yet I still have to hear from a bull that this week's developments are a concern to their long-term case. If the credit crunch is not that bad, why on earth would the Fed intervene (and I refuse the cop-out argument that they are helping their friends at the detriment of all others)? Have they had a peek into the derivatives abyss and how aggressive deleveraging is threatening the system's stability? Did the banks share their true set of books i.e. without the GAAP games and showing the true ultimate risk? Something really traumatic must have happened between the speeches last week and the decision on Tuesday to scare the Board into a nuclear option (and contaminate their British bretherns).

JML

ALOHA !!

There we go ... POG and HUI going down !!

Expirations next Tuesday ... These guys do not want POG over $700 on 9/25. In the past they almost always get their way. It will be interesting to see if they do!

Funny ... I am always wanting the POG to go down so I can buy more!

GemmaStar -

I personally would not call a return to all-time highs from a 15 to 30% correction depending on the markets as a confirming turn. It occurred at least three weeks ago. If you were a secular bull player, you would have accumulated in the throes of the sell-off because you would have not been swayed by the action. As a short-term player, you should have a harder time pulling the trigger after returning to such high levels (that were very substantially overbought and in question value-wise before the summer uncertainty hit).

JML

Some comments from Don Coxe today:

- Gold is definitely going to new records.
- BB lowering rates was equivalent to a cowbow telling the indian "that was my last bullet".
- China has a big problem with runaway food inflation
- China's contribution as a deflationary power is over.
- Sees another 10% decline on USDX.

He implied inflation is and will be a bigger issue, Fed may drop rates again in the ST, but then interest rates will have to go much, much higher.

Recently SFD dropped as China reported this week both an increase in pork supplies and a drop of 11% in pork prices after sharp rises all year. Selling may be overdone.

Establishing new position as this morning SFD is now up going through 30 Daily RSI 7. Although SFD has contract to deliver 60 million lbs. of pork to China, still selling rising prices to the U.S. and others. I think China sought them out earlier this year and SFD is the first U.S. producer selling to them. Long SFD.

Took profits yesterday, closing out calls on KGC Nov 12.50 strike price. (Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth!)

Japanese banks, MTU & MFG, dropping on volume.

Right on number2son, Ron Paul, Kucinich, Gravel are the only candidates of integrity

Kaimu, HUI is down but my explorers are way up.

I do think this pullback in POG is just a bit of predictable profit taking in an otherwise abiding and convincing uptrend in the yellow metal.

There's nothing wrong with telling an indian you just fired your last bullet if you have a flamethrower to reach for (no disrespect to the native American or to sensitive types)

I define super rich as over 100 million these days. One of my best golf partners/friends has about 50, but I don't really think of him as super rich; perhaps due to his fondness for cheese-whiz nachos and cheap American beer.

in GSS $4.08, God help me.

Kaimu,
Do you live on the big island? I love that island. I would forfeit social security in a minute if they would let me, since as you say they'll "tax" away all the "benefits" we should receive from years of maximum contributions. On the mortgage front we're solid though. We didn't refinance to roll in our credit debt and buy a new boat. We refinanced to get a lower rate and then paid the same amount every month. All the "investment advisors" I spoke with said we were foolish throwing our money away like that instead of putting it into our 401K, which I believe will be taxed away as well. But now many people are losing their houses or having to pay PMI again as their house value drops and we are sitting on 80% equity and payoff in three years. Doesn't seem so stupid now.

Seamus,
MTU and MFG have hit my accumulation price points for eternal buy and holds but, they're falling knives. I have more fear than greed regarding Japan right now. What do you think?

ALOHA !!

SiO2 and 2nd ... This one's for you guys!!

Anybody here know what a "spot deferred sales contract" is?

I recently had an article published entitled "The Barrick Syndrome". It is not so much an indictment on the morals and behavior of heavy weight corporations like Barrick Gold(ABX-NYSE)but more an indictment of the BIG BANKS that make the rules and control the rule makers! In this case JP MORGAN ...

Imagine if you could get this freebie from the elites. Would you take it? Barrick Gold CEOs did and probably still do ...

This information was taken from the CEO of Blanchard & Co, Donald Doyle, who sued JP Morgan and Barrick Gold back in 2003. He is explaining the unique structured vehicle that JP Morgan designed to essentially kill the POG and create a profit machine for the two companies. What was happening was a "private gold carry trade" with no margin call and no gold call! The Blanchard & Co CEO, Donald Doyle, said there was no other gold mining company or bullion bank that had this "private trade". There are many unanswered questions about the details that will never be known since the Blanchard & Co lawsuit was dismissed.

From THE BARRICK SYNDROME ...
EXPLAINING A SPOT DEFERRED CONTRACT ...
Doyle: A normal short sale would be a lousy device to manipulate a market because a short sale is inherently speculative and dangerous. If you sell something short, the upside potential of your investment is limited but your downside is unlimited.

Taylor: Right. Your upside is limited because the price of an item can’t go below zero but in theory it can rise to infinity.

Doyle: Exactly. However, Barrick’s spot deferred sales contracts are super-short sales of gold – short sales on steroids. The gold used to make the short sale is borrowed by J.P. Morgan for Barrick’s account. The borrowed gold is immediately sold into the market and the dollar proceeds from the sale of the gold are invested in money market instruments that produce a higher rate of return than the gold lease rate.

From 1996 through 2001, J.P. Morgan loaned gold to Barrick at a lease rate of approximately 1.5%. J.P. Morgan then reinvested the proceeds at a rate of interest of approximately 6.5%. The 5% interest premium, or “contango” was profit to Barrick. If the price of gold fell, Barrick realized additional profit.

A sweet deal. But what made the spot-deferred sales contracts truly extraordinary was the fact that, with most of the contracts, Barrick had 15 years to repay the borrowed gold; had no margin calls at any gold price; and had “evergreen” provisions that effectively restarted the 15-year term each year.

Taylor: Our subscribers are familiar with what is known as the gold-carry trade but that normally didn’t involve long-term loans and it normally would involve margin payment requirements if the gold price began to rise. Is this the only case you know of which involved such long term loans and no margin?

Doyle: It’s the only one we have been able to find. Barrick itself says its spot deferred contracts are unique. What is most interesting is that these began back in 1988 when Barrick described itself as a smaller, higher cost producer with a weak balance sheet. So you have to ask yourself the question, why would someone be willing to lend gold with no margin calls for ten years or more if he didn’t have the absolute certainty that it is going to be repaid? We don’t know what other kinds of credit enhancement were provided. We don’t know what the reasons were for J.P. Morgan extending such generous terms.

Taylor: Right. Why would J.P. Morgan make such seeming extraordinarily reckless loans to such a noncredit worthy borrower?

Doyle: J.P. Morgan does say in their answer to our complaint that they have legitimate business.END

Now who got behind Barrick Gold to take this obscure mining company to where it is today?

From THE BARRICK SYNDROME ...
EXPLAINING PAST AND PRESENT BARRICK BOARD MEMBERS ...

Doyle: Barrick actually has two boards - its Board of Directors and its “International Advisory Board." Brian Mulroney, the former Prime Minister of Canada, is a member of Barrick’s Board of Directors and is the Chairman of Barrick’s International Advisory Board. Former President George Bush served as Honorary Senior Advisor to Barrick’s International Advisory Board. Members of that Board have included Karl Otto Pohl, former President of the German central bank; Senator Howard H. Baker, a former Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate and White House Chief of Staff; Senator William Cohen, a former U.S. Secretary of Defense; Andrew Young, a former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and Mayor of Atlanta; and Vernon Jordan, a former President of the Urban League, NAACP Field Secretary and a former Senior Partner in Akin, Gump, Strauss and Feld.

Taylor: Wasn’t there a CIA connection with Barrick?

Doyle: The CIA connection was actually through Barrick’s initial investors. At its inception, Barrick’s principal investors were Saudi Arabians who had close ties to the Saudi Intelligence Services, or to the CIA, or to both. Those Saudi Investors were Sheikh Kamal Adham, the head of Saudi Intelligent Services at the same time that President Bush was head of the CIA; Adnan Khashoggi, the first of the Saudi investors in Barrick; and Prince Nawaf bin Abdul Aziz, one of the biggest of the initial shareholders in Barrick and now head of Saudi Intelligence Services. Sheikh Adham was the CIA’s principal liaison to the Middle East and was so closely tied to the CIA that he even had an agency codename: “Tumbleweed.”

Taylor: What do these colorful folks know about the mining industry? I’m sure Barrick has had some technically competent folks on their board who know the mining industry. But many of these people of influence in the company appear not to have any substantial knowledge of the mining industry. Herbert Hoover was a mining engineer so his addition to a mining company board might make sense. But George Bush? Brian Mulroney?

Doyle: We failed to find any connection that the Advisory Board members had with mining, mineral development or geological engineering.END

Now what I want find interesting and that I have to extrapolate into other "carry trades" is how JP Morgan reinvested the proceeds from the gold sales into "money market instruments". Are they still doing this today? If so could some of those "money market instruments" be caught up in the current ABCP mayhem and what if they are delayed repayments or never repaid. They are out the fiat dollars and the gold liability that their "private carry trade" was based on. Although they can keep extending the delivery forever under the "evergreen provisions" of the contract.

Gets me thinking about the other "carry trades" and are their fortunes tied to ABCP and derivative vehicles? If so the losses would be exponential, even more than anyone could imagine.

MY BIG PICTURE ... How will we ever know or be able to "calculate" risk even in a cash savings account when such interbank contracts are hidden from public view and even SEC view. At some point people will flee to gold becuase they will realize "risk" is out of control and unmeasurable! A savings account may be FDIC insured but is that really a guarantee you can count on? It is not ... in fact it is yet another "pass the buck" guarantee to be paid by taxpayers and our children.

This is the ultimate nature of FIAT MONEY ... It is forever "liquid" and flowing out of your hands. Its value is derived from a government and a bank's ego and whim ... oh, and their promises! Hummmmmmm???

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

OG- are you still holding ETFC?

actually got in at $4.0675

fella's, we don't have the option of not paying ss taxes in xchange for not geting ss. that's not how the program works.

so the idea of not paying any INCOME taxes in xchange for not getting ss is such a no-brainer for so many folks that to even mention it is absurd. it's like me saying PAY ME ten grand a year for the rest of my life, and when/if it's time, the nursing home is on me.

Shark,,,I have thre trend lines converging in the 3.80 area. If it hits may join you there.

Dab

GSS
Shark,,,I have thre trend lines converging in the 3.80 area. If it hits may join you there.

Dab

you dedicated chartist, you!

HERO- taking the morning trade off at 27.80, but still very positive on the stock...

jasper- took a small position on Noront (NOT.V) at 4.35 for a trade ;)

...if anyone's thinking of trading noront (speculating is the correct term here), real-time quotes on fidelity via not.v, but trades need to be placed using symbol nosof...

Think we're getting any meaningful pullback here on POG? Doesn't seem like XAU is having issues.
And USD isn't doing better!

I'm not seeing how we get one unless someone unloads a few tons of bullion. Not that I wouldn't join Kaimu in a gold buying frenzy, but it seems like momentum is starting to build and once we get rolling (inflating the gold bubble) I don't see air leaving for a little while.
Iraq vets would burst it if they came home but that seems unlikely at this moment.

Anyone else amused by the Talking heads discussion of oil prices? Completely out of touch....

I would love to hear thoughts about the drama unfolding around AUY/NTO/MDG merger.

I think CIBC's downgrade (on triple witching and on the heels of last evening's announcement) is highly suspect and reeks of creating a buying event for constituents. Call me a conspiracy theorist.

I also think we'll see some further consolidation in the gold miners here very soon!

Jumble,

All appearances notwithstanding, I am not a Ken Fisher apologist. HOWEVER, I recognize that he wants to maintain his standing and reputation as a Forbes columnist. Apart from the fact that Fisher publishes twice monthly (and must have his column in before hand to meet print deadlines), inevitably his "calls" (if we're going to call them that) may be a tad "old" by the time we read them.

Fisher's private clients may have a different experience.

The above said, I'll point out something else from Farleigh's excellent "Taming the Lion". The author notes that markets go further than generally expected (which might be a reason KF feels confident that his published recommendations will "hold" for reasonably long periods, preserving his reputation). Farleigh also says that (surprise) markets move in underlying trends (another reason KF's picks, if they're "on trend" are more likely to hold.

But, of course, we've learned all this from Bill and many of us have profited from Bill's advice, guidance and suggestions. (My hand is raised.)

Different subject: I heard Fisher interviewed right after the Fed action. A point that Fisher went out of his way to make is that he felt BB had made his call as a signal to all the presidential candidates. According to Fisher, it was BB's way of letting whomever is elected know that he (or she) can count on Bernacke to "play ball".

Fisher's shrewd observation is not a comforting one. But then Bill told us (warned us, is the better phrasing) about all of this long ago, after all.

The other basic fact about Fiat money is that it's entirely based on confidence now, since we're printing it like our GDP was running at 15%. And as we see confidence is rapidly eroding especially as we see the players bailing each other out while the average American is hung out to dry. And how about Goldman with some of the best earnings ever by betting against the mortgage market. You think Paulson's been coaching them?
Shark Attack, i pretty sure Kaimu meant he would let the govt keep all his past contributions and opt out if he didn't have to pay any more income based SS taxes, since we won't see it anyway because they'll judge us too rich when it's time to collect. Most people understand this. I think what people need to wake up to is that they can tax away your 401K in the same manner with one rule change. They may even revoke the tax exempt status of Roth IRa's if it gets bad enough. Hopefully, someone responsible will get in before they have to resort to that.

West High Yield surging today 37.5% on quarterly report. Sounds like they are stepping up drilling and have found more nickel and are looking for gold.

Northern Dynasty also surging big time. Drill results coming very soon.

ALOHA !!

shark ... I was not offering this deal as a 20 something ... DUH! My earning years are very limited but my SS welfare years are just beginning and could last another 20+ years if I stay healthy! The closer most of us get to retirement the government will get substantially less income taxes and our tax exemptions and deductions(elderly, blind,medical, etc.)go up. In fact I become a 100% liability to the US government upon retirement and with inflation a lot of us will probably have to go on welfare and food stamps on top of SS and Medicare making us a 200% burden. Bush could put all his top statisticians to work on it ... I'm open ... Like the old game show ... "LETS MAKE A DEAL"!

Lots of good discussions here today.

shark_attack, the point was BB has no flamethrower on his horse (or helicopter).

Re. NOT.V. Van Eeden was on BNN and commented on it, basically saying it is way overdone and unproven at this point. I immediately sold, since whenever these guys appear on BNN the stocks move either like a rocket or an elephant falling off an airplane. Stock was trading at 4.80ish. Sure enough... Will pick them back later. Up 50% since 12PM yesterday, as Bill said.

Re. the terrific post by Genesis above: Someone referenced Satyajit Das, (http://tinyurl.com/33olud), a leading expert in credit derivatives and risk management. According to him, up to 53% of the global $2.2 trillion commercial paper is now asset-backed, with about 50% of that backed by... mortgages. Earlier this year, the total value of derivatives on these was about $485 trillion. To keep things in perspective, the total world GDP is about $65 trillion, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy. How is this possible? Because those mortgages were repackaged and sold, and used as collateral for more loans, with hedge funds and pension pans leveraging borrowed funds from Japan at 0% and from Greenspan at 1%, then used as collateral again and resold again, and so on. What will happen when the value of the original housing that was used as collateral drops? I think there is a possible answer on why BB panicked and used his last bullet. And missed?

he

2nd - Sorry, was away for a few minutes. No, exited ETFC via stop limit order @ 13.93 four days ago. Now 13.59

Why should senior officials be protected by as private army anyway? They should be protected by the regular military and the contractors should only be rebuiling the infrastructure. Blatant conflicts like this will make peace that much harder to achieve.

badius - Brazil is no longer "brazil". Have you noticed how their currency has strengthened mightily vs. the US$? They're now self-sufficient in energy - in significant measure because of determination and persistence in ethanol from the 70s to today. They have become a major global power in commodities. We should do so well ...

They do still have MAJOR social problems yet, unaddressed, and haven't achieved the growth levels of the other BRIC countries, but we should be doing so well ...

Fred, you wrote: "MTU and MFG have hit my accumulation price points for eternal buy and holds but, they're falling knives. I have more fear than greed regarding Japan right now. What do you think?"

I'd wait unless you've done a lot of DD. Elections coming up are a factor. yes, they look oversold, but you can apply the wait for Cara Daily RSI 7 to pass through and close above 30. MFG recently filed a Form 6K--you might want to review. I don't have time as I leaving for the weekend.

Still retaining FXY hedge (+7%) because there will be some unwinding sometime this year. BOJ meets again in October; we'll have to see the election results.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Moab: what is High West Yield? Not found in google finance. Thanx in advance.

Gemmastar -

WSJ ran a front page feature on Fisher's relentless asset-gathering strategy. I doubt whether they focus anywhere near as much on performing for existing clients.

Currencies overshoot and undershoot.

Any currency overshooting with declining fundamentals (such as high interest rates - the use of expensive biofuels ) will come off. The loonie was 60¢ at one time. Perhaps its still there and the Buck is merely reflecting its real value.

One thing that shouldn't escape BRIC investors (as well as commodities):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBVSP&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

rob d,

Listing the sources would be no problem. Letting people enter their own symbols would certainly require a change from how I'm doing things now, but I've been thinking that it could be useful anyway.

Right now my code is too slow to have it run every time someone requests the page (I mean, it does have to draw 100 graphs), so what I probably need to do is cache the RSI values, only doing the RSI calculation for new tickers, and maybe stop generating the graphs (just make a link to another service that will do it for me). Or I guess only draw the graphs if the data has changed or it is given a new ticker.

I'm busy this weekend, but I'll think it over and I might have something by the end of next week. I appreciate the feedback, and I hope I can turn this into something people will really find useful.

Jock,
Moab was refering to this junior minor who Bill has talked about briefly in the past. With this huge rally it's back to where it was when Bill first mentioned it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=WHY.V

GemmaStar-

I admire successful investors of all stripes, Fisher included. His impressive track record stands for itself and you shouldn't feel forced into defending him. I am just trying to stir some discussions here on the platitudes and revisionist interpretations the Wall Street Pravda is quick to disperse and make conventional wisdom.

JML

Bill,
I've only seen VanEeden on BNN but, I've seen him many times. It's my perception that he has consistently touted the same half dozen stocks for a couple of years and has been negative or noncomittal on everything else. I don't know whether he is successful at picking them. I've done my DD on his recommendations and have passed on them all.

My little foray into nor.t is complete. Sell button hit. Fine'.

bill:

regarding Mr. VanEeden:

ive been following him closely for several years.
i have always investigated closely the recommendations he offers, and yes its usually:

altius minerals, miranda, lara exploration, and the like. but as he has said before BNN does not allow guests to give top picks that are below $1 in share price, and many of the companies he follows are just that: grass roots, early-stage exploration.

if you check out the site: www.stockchase.com
you can look at his calls on stocks for the past 2 years and youll see a mixed opinion, not the general non-commitment you have suggested.

opps:

my above comment was directed towards the poster "Fred" not bill.

thx

NOT.V- OK, thanks for the heads up...out at 4.68...

Reuters U.S. Company News
6:48 p.m. 09/20/2007


NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange
slipped 5 percent in the September reporting period, the exchange revealed on
Thursday, as short sellers took advantage of a stock decline to lock in
profits.

FIVE BIGGEST POSITIONS:
Ford Motor Co. (F) 191,174,302 191,957,828 -783,526 -0.4
Qwest Comm. (Q) 85,900,641 83,239,371 2,661,270 3.2
Advanced Micro (AMD) 84,436,860 81,685,298 2,751,562 3.4
Countrywide (CFC) 78,682,027 83,632,426 -4,950,399 -5.9
Time Warner (TWX) 64,895,575 67,998,944 -3,103,369 -4.6

bodes well, IMO, for AMD and CFC...

i never thought anyone's comments were demeaning to Paul VE, as its critical that these relationships be publically known.

i notice that peter grandich clearly spells out the shares he recv's from stocks he recommends,

i guess the salient issue is whether objectivity is truly possible for these people going on their past records or if the existance of inside relationships should disqualify them from openly discussing their pics and why.

2nd ave...

good print on not.v....i was out at 4.38....then 4.33. Mixed executions. At fido...i called the intl desk to see why the slow executions....he said, the canadian exchange does not like anything other than 100's and he said that this one seems to be bouncing around more than others. I didn't finess it. Glad to have a profit and not a "learning experience."

My last word on Paul VanEeden: I didn't intend to demean him. I'm sorry, if that was the message that I communicated. Whenever I hear newsletter writers such as VanEeden, Grandich and Casey promote stocks that are of interest to me I am sure to research them carefully. I have no doubt that these fellows are better informed and more knowledgeable than I am in their field of expertise. I truly appreciate it when they provide unbiased information which helps me to make buying decisions.

"in GSS $4.08, God help me."

Hey Shark-Attack,,,,looks like God helped you,,,lol.

Dab

It looks like there is serious demand for gold shares. Several intra-day charts are V's - sold off aggressively on the open and bought back to close positive: GSS, GFI, ARU.

As Bill says, this could go parabolic soon.

Update Tropical storm Jerry

Steering currents are still fairly weak with the system squeezed between upper-level ridging over the south central U.S., and more ridging off the Southeast coast, but we think the low pressure center will turn a bit more to the west and may run nearly parallel along the central Gulf coast tonight, after moving very close or just onshore of the western Florida Panhandle or extreme southern Alambama. This system will continue to pose a threat for heavy, flooding rain and gusty winds well to the north and northeast of the center of circulation. Since the system is so close to land now, it is not likely to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane, but rather a weak tropical storm.

Hundreds of oil industry workers left five production platforms in the gulf, and three drilling rigs were evacuated, the federal Minerals Management Service said. Just more than a quarter of the gulf’s daily oil production had been closed off as a precaution by Thursday.

I felt so good about it Dab, I went to the beach....81 and sunny here in Westport, CT. Have an awesome weekend guys and girls, and especially, Bill Cara!

Stupid question from someone new to the investment world. I saw this statement about an ETF which shorts the SP500

• (SDS) - this is a bet on the S&P 500 going lower with 2X leverage

Q:What does it mean when it says with a 2X leverage?
Thanks!

isaiah- if the S&P 500 drops 1%, SDS moves up 2%...

~~~~~~~~~~~2nd_ave~~~~~~~~~~

Thanks for the help! I aprreciate it......

Isaiah64v4, that also means if the S&P goes up 1%, SDS loses 2%, as a few holders of this week may attest. ;)

If you're new to investing, I'd recommend avoiding leverage of any kind until you gain some necessary experience.

Isaiah,

SDS I believe there are margin requirements involved when trading this.

Also, check out QID if you are interested in inverse funds.

number2son ..... I figured that "leveage" play would cut both ways.

Before trying anything new I want to learn all I can about it first. That's why I asked you guys for some help.

Thanks!

jfs.....
I thought the SDS was just an ETF that shorted the S&P. Are margin requirements necessary?

Also the QID that you mentioned, does it short the S&P like the [ETFs] SDS and DOG does?

Bill,

Thank you for this wonderful website and education.
It really makes some sense out of the craziness.

I was looking back at many of your archived posts, which I highly recommend to anyone new here.

Congrats on calling the doubling of gold prices since Dec 2005, at a time when it at already gone up 150% since 2005. And also on calling the market top in July this year.

In one of your past posts, you write about gold and inflation, and recommend that traders look for companies that "companies that are creating real wealth, with believable earnings (not accounting manipulations), and the payout of real dividends (not return of capital distributions)" Today when you talked about BRICs you again talked about "real wealth"

Can you sometime in the future please elaborate again how to sort through "accounting manipulations" and find "real dividends" when looking at a company's numbers? On a macro level one looks at productivity and inflation, money supply and interest rates, but how about at the company level? For example, where does a stock buyback fit into this discussion? What kind of "accounting manipulations" should we look for on the balance sheet?

p.s. no objection to tip jar or subscription....

http://www.billcara.com/archives/2005/11/the_need_to_und.html

Isaiah64

For short/ultra short(2x)

http://www.proshares.com/funds?products=98616&fundType=

For ultra long

http://www.proshares.com/funds?products=98646&fundType=

Good Luck,

Dab

Dab

Thanks for the links!
Especially for the ultra long one.