Yes, it is comforting. I deeply appreciate what you are doing. All the best to you Bill.

What goes around comes around, Bill. Your generosity will be repaid.

Dear Bill,

I think what's exciting is that your blog (and it's ideal form and precise purpose and usage) is an organic, living thing that is, as we all are in the process of becoming.

And it looks as though today may be the day for gold.

Give your best to your son from me on his wedding day tomorrow! That's one day of reckoning that I have, thus far, managed to avoid:)

All The Best To You All

Chris

What you leave behind is not what is engraved in stone monuments, but what is woven into the lives of others.

I can't take credit for the quote. Although I can say I will remember and thank Bill Cara for all he has done for me over the last year. I will continue to thank him long after this blog is gone.

What makes you think this blog will ever be gone? Ever hear of Forbes? Hearst? Bloomberg? This blog aint goin' nowhere.

Excuse me but there is premarket music asking me if I would like to dance ;)

Hey guys,

I don't have fantastic commodity charts. At what spot price can gold be said to have decisively broken out. Is today going to be the breakout?

C.Note- congrats to you and anyone else who will make it through the end of the party...my wife parked everything in the MM lot yesterday, i'm dashing back in to unload some GSS, and that will leave just a few swing trades to unwind...

Bill:
Please setup a PayPal account or something similar so we can contribute to the overhead, etc. Thanks soooo much for being here!

Have a great wedding day.

Rookie

this quote from Carl Jung's "man and his symbols" struck me recently,

"The attitude of modern civilzed man sometimes reminds me of a psychotic patient in my clinic who was himself a doctor. one morning he explained what a wonderful night he had disinfecting the whole of heaven with mercuric chloride, but that in the course of this sanitary process he had found no trace of god.

you see, the primitive phenomenon of obsession has not vanished; its is the same as ever, it is only interpreted in a different and more obnoxious way."

i wonder if trading is a form of obsession for some and a trade for others, and for the lucky few an art.

Mr. Metaphysical.....

GRZ rose a bunch on SUPER LIGHT volume.

Still long GSS..It's been a good 2 days.

Bill...Is this the gold breakout?

Don't sell GSS too cheap...It's made a positive daily gap if it holds it's a bullish continuation pattern.

BILL!

last trading day in sept.
Gold has hit $750!
What a seer!

regards,

joey

gold - Dec futures are $750+, not spot gold.

joey

This story today on EU Banks:

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3007158.ece

ETFC - Upmove continues; now 13.32. Up 4.25% today.

usd

Monthly back to 1983. All time low in 1992 was 78.43; today's close was 78.41 with buried Sto's and RSI 29.39

Rubber, meet the road:

http://tinyurl.com/2m76uu

Asset inflation on the way.

ETFC:
Enjoying the ride today. Question now is when to get out.

Article on Drudge Report last night by way of International Herald talking about the dire water situation China is in.

http://tinyurl.com/2wslom

Disclosure: long PHO

SYNL:
After underperforming the market recently, SYNL is moving up on on high volume (Compared to daily average).

Just FYI for day traders. Long SYNL

re: double top

I was thinking the same thing before I saw you mention it. Too obvious?

geckojb, thanks, nice read.

USDX at 77.99.

ETFC said its EPS this year would be 1.05-1.15 (after mortgage losses). In order to be at a 16 PE ratio, it would have to go just above $16.00/share. AMTD is trading at a PE of 19 and OXPS is trading at a PE of 20. Am I missing something here or should ETrade be at 18 or so?

KRY up again, almost 4%, on average volume

Re: BMD

Just wanted to clarify that when I made the comment 2 days ago about gravel shortage in alberta I was just passing on info from the field. I probably shot too quickly from the hip to tie it to BMD, but it's the only gravel stock I've seen mentioned here, and mentioned frequently.

I had forgotten about it's recent announcement to seek a sale or other value generating agreement and the subsequent crash of its stock. I guess this is another case study as to how important quality management is, even in a favourable industry...

While it might make for some exciting trading at this point, I don't have the stomach for it and have not, and probably will not, take a position.

since the 8/16 bottom, 7 of the top 11 Worden sub-industry groups are from the MINING sector. And guess what: gold and silver are not the top performers. Steel&iron, and copper are up 42% and 40% to gold's 37%.

In fact, from 10/02 to date, the same two groups are the top performers (of 208 sub-industry groups). Steel/iron is up 768%, Copper up 743% - to silver's 314% and gold's 221%.

The industrial metals companies have HANDILY outperformed precious metals. Why is it so damned hard to see beyond your expectations to what is really happening?

OK, other frustrated PM traders, ranking Worden groups from the START of the PM boom in late 2000, Silver miners ranks highest, with gains of 1147%, but gold miners (439%) still trail Copper (722%) and Steel&Iron (681%).

Gold didn't beat the key industrial metals even measuring from the start of its boom !

Jock,
Are your group numbers an average from an Index or top of a range from individual stocks? Interesting perpsective.

Gold will vastly outperform industrial metals in any contraction, if central banks ever allow one to happen. Investment demand is key to gold prices. We have had a crack-up boom (my opinion) which is why industrial metals have outperformed so far.

Jasper - Those numbers are from Worden's Telechart via Hemscott's (formerly Media General's) industry groups. Somewhat similar to IBD's groups, they include only US listed stocks and ADR's. The group averages are "square-root-of capitalization" weighted, so that large caps don't overly dominate their industry group. (Very small bulletin board and some nasdaq stocks are not included.) The industry group averages are based on the daily close of all stocks in the group on the date you choose. There are 11 silver stocks, 51 gold stocks,8 copper stocks, and 40 steel&iron stocks in the respective industry groups.

Here is how I think it will go:

If there is a major correction in the wings, then you can be sure that gold prices will correct along with everything else.

It all depends on the interim high and the interim low for gold prices that will determine its future course of action. Some of the base metals are already seeing a crash and sudden increases in supply.

From the simple fact that inventories are no longer viable in a price correction for all metals, this means a correction in prices. Nickel is your best example so far.

However, its possible with a severe gridlock in credit that gold, the only metal with a monetary component, can be used as an institutional asset base or as collateral, thus the price will steady.

Mining outfits may not be able to raise cash through the credit markets in a declining price scenario, except for those with improving fundamentals or profitably operating.

This would favour gold producers.

Molycor, MOR.V, I believe mentioned by Kaimu in the past, is on a mini-tear today. Up 17% on quadruple volume so far. Only recent news are addition of more claims. Is that enough to drive the price up? I'm long a small position...

http://tinyurl.com/yrv3t6

Might the next big Olympic event be class conflict in the classless society ?

Bill's Shanghai market charts show a 220% gain over one year to an all-time high. Pretty good times for China's investors!

Meanwhile, China's working people are paying 18% more for food than 1 year ago:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

Social conflict, anyone?

The cara 100 YTD return that my spread sheet shows is 17%. The Russell 3000 is only 7.75%. For a passive index not too shabby. If the community ever does get into portfolio recommendations, I would favor a benchmark; the cara100 is one consideration.

As traders are the populace here, I'm not sure that many invest in passive vehicles but it certainly makes sense to me to have a core longterm holding. Then again, maybe most do; it's just not exciting. Mebane Farber, though, I think has some pretty exciting stuff at worldbeta.blogspot.com.

A theme he has is emulating endowment investing with simple timing(200dma is used as the buy/sell signal)among 5 asset allocations (20% each in US Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Bonds, REITs, and Commodities)

possible bumps in the road for the miners:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/09/global-credit-crisis-canadian-style.html

the good times are rolling for now, but no one is safe from possible credit market turmoil.

good luck all...and thanks bill for WGDFF. I could never find stocks like that on my own. I am learning alot from everyone here, keep up the great work!

Time to take something off the table:

What a month. Putting money back to work in the market in August paid off this month. Double-digit portfolio gains have me a bit worried here. My charts look like someone threw a tomato at the wall. My opinion is the market is overbought now. Sold SLW.to, WGI.to, ECU.to and HGU.to today. [My end of month portfolio adjustments] Now 90% cash and will take a look a putting back my hedge for a down market. Looking at TA [Technicals] has me in a fit. Doesn't look good and sometimes has me tilting towards greed that the market still goes up from here. Bill's heads up on the Financials is appreciated. Canadian banks may have a poor performance with those mystical loan holdings. Will look at the Financial ETF from Horizons for a down move when it comes.

Cash in king once again, waiting for the next trend so I can get back on the train.

Commentary from posters here this month has been a big help in keeping me grounded. [015]

do others feel it's time to take profits in WGDFF? It's up 8% today, and rather extended from its MA!

ETFC - Trading in a 10-cent range since 10:45EDT or so this morning. Should go one way or the other soon IMO.

The trade-weighted dollar is in freefall today, perhaps because it broke all time lows. Next week should be interesting.

I am keeping the bull case in mind; if credit issues continue to surface in Europe, the Euro, which is near the top of its trading range, may weaken against the dollar short-term. Gold may continue rising against all currencies though.

jock - i sold WGDFF two days ago at 3.21...got scared out of it, but then i always sell too early.

i bought it at 2.30 on 8/21 - not bad for one month!

also sold slw at 13.99 from 10.39 bought on 8/16.
kind of regretting it today, but how can i complain?

i went cash just in case. it's been a good run but i am taking bill's advice...gold pretty much hit his cycle high, and he has stated that everything is due for a correction after that (i think that's what he said, but i could be rewriting to suit my bias...too lazy to do a search right now...).
i feel like desperate hedge funds are going to drive small volume and momentum type stocks higher, then set em up for a fall. they really need to make some money to avoid redemptions and restore confidence. Beserker behavior, as russ winter from wallstreetexaminer.com calls it.

good luck.

Jock -

Food inflation may be but a benign symptom of a more profound fracture between the coastal boom and the struggling agricultural inland. I recall reading a while back that the Chinese Communist party was devoting significant efforts to control farmers' discontent through the Olympics game for fear of a deja vu centrifugal/revolutionary uprising.

Although most market experts sit in awe of China's markets and their parabolic rise and cannot conceive any bad scenario prior to Beijing' 08, I plan to keep an eye trained on the upcoming 17th Congress (opening on Oct. 15) and the possible leadership change. Another Shanghai contagion a la February?

JML

Re Bill's Report of today, regarding XLF, Relative Strength and HB&B in trouble.

I'd like to share some observations on how HB&B stocks look when examining small-scale (minute) cumulative money flow over the last two months or so.

JPM shows clear distribution since the August dip (actually before that) with no true recovery afterwards. It is worse than the daily graph suggests, and it is in stark contrast to how GS looks today (fiercely positive, fully reflected in the price) and how C looks (net inflows, too, not a wild as GS but these are not -yet?- reflected in the current price).

LEH is rather neutral to slightly negative.

Add the fact that JPM has by far the biggest derivatives portfolio, that they have been negligent enough (bordering to the desperate?) in selling 'structured products' to pension funds via not so transparent channels that forced a high-profile investigation and, to some extent, early elections here in Greece, and I'd think that they are the ones with the hottest potato.

Just my two cents.

Addendum,

Reference to the events I mention above from the International Herald Tribune:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/12/bloomberg/bxfund.php

Note these are recent events, late spring/early summer this year. But these particular bonds were interest rate plays and not CDOs, to my knowledge.

rob d, I did about the same thing, but I have no regrets. I did keep a portion of WGDFF as I still think it's early in the story.

I still like SLW and bought back in a bit today. I liked the presentation they made at the Denver conference (it's available for replay).

Hindsight being 20-20, I do regret missing a big chunk of the run in CPSL this week. Today, not so much as it's already come back down to the price where I closed my position earlier in the week. It can anywhere from here. They are due to file their annual report by Sep. 30th, so I'm staying out until that happens.

The small cap Chinese stocks were wild this week. I'm happy to have rode part of the wave without getting caught in the undertow.

Bill & any other uranium traders.would appreciate your comments on Aurora Energy (AXU).
Blackmont Capital initiated conerage today with a target of $20.50 (Can ).Cameco target 62.50

From aurora website:
A new NI 43-101 compliant resource was announced on February 13, 2007. The current resource includes a Measured and Indicated resource of 58 million pounds of U308, with an additional Inferred resource of 38 million pounds of U308.

Long @ AXU 13.56

Tate and Lyle PLC (sugars and sweetener manufacturer) fell 28% today thats a lot for a £1.9 billion company.Caused by higher corn costs and dollar weakness.On another note my father drew all he has in deposits in Northern Rock yesterday, today we find Northern Rock rumored to have borrowed £7 billion more from bank of England in last 2 weeks, NRK fell 7% today.

Please note I dont think it was my fathers withdrawal that caused them to borrow the £7 billion:)

JML, re Chinese inflation - Interesting points.

Would I be naive to think that, while punishing China's urban workers, higher food prices might BENEFIT rural areas - by elevating farmers' incomes?

Or are their crops all marketed through "cooperatives" which screw the farmers?

re: China markets
I share Jumble's concerns. Looking at the parabolic rise, one has to believe that a correction is inevitable. It isn't a question of "if" but rather when. Next week is one of China's "Golden Holidays" (possibly bullish for the price of... gold, do you think?) but after October 8th, and depending upon other international financial events in the interim, I would expect at least a short term correction in Asian markets which might be a trigger for the completion of a double top in our indexes.
After all the hedgies have closed their books on the quarter and are now counting their bonuses.
I still think that gold has a way to go, but I am concerned about PM equities in a broad sell off. I am thinking about taking additional profits in paper gold holdings and adding to Ultra Shorts, particularly SKF as I sense there is another shoe to fall.
Have a great weekend, all, and thanks for your great input.
Bill, just tell me where to send my dues.
I love this community.

geckojb -

Thanks for the water article. Very interesting! Unsustainable development and another long term trigger for higher grain prices.

Veolia (VE) just got a water contract in China to serve 3 million people.

Hi guys, whoever recommended 'Trade your way to financial freedom' by Van Tharp, thank you! It rates as one of the best investment books I've ever read. I've also choked down 'New Thinking in Technical Analysis' by Bensignor and would only recommend it to those with insomnia! Bill, I like the idea others posted on having a book review page. It's a win-win, you get to make money from link purchases, and we get all the hundreds of finance books out there filtered down to a core of really great books rated by the brightest minds! I have a long ways to go, and a lot of learning to do. What book do you guys recommend next?

Bill
Just like any family gathering or picnic, everyone should bring there favorite dish to share with the enter family. You see, if everyone contributes, you go away feeling very satisfied. This community is the first one I've been to where you (bill cara) bring all the great foods, and I and many other like me, just sit down and enjoy with out contributing one of my own favorite dishes. You could make me feel a little better by opening a paypal account and let me bring what ever dish I could afford that month.

Top right corner...."Cara Community Picnic Contribution."

I feel like the funeral chasers that look at the obits, and crash the funeral dinners. Let us bring a small dish.

Have a great week-end, even though some of us have to work both dayssssssssssss.

Jock:

Took a tad of profit from WGDFF today but left most for a longer run. Hey when your in for under $2. you can.

Did anyone notice GLE 51% gain today :) Maybe a restart of their Central American venture is in the cards.

Wow, american democracy in action:

http://www.youtube.com//watch?v=eG6X-xtVask

Personally i think they all should get fired, and then all who didn't show up to represent their voters...

makes me want to puke

Some key links especially to Mike Shedlock's site, which Fed Governors should be forced to read forever while tanning in hell.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/09/best-part-of-friday-weekly-charts.html

Afternoon Gentlemen,

Today I have started selling my wgdff. Let go approx 15% of position at 3.25. Will continue to sell into strength if there is any left in the beast. I think
the stock is definitely up in the stratosphere in
price but maybe has a 3.50 marker in it. Why was SLW off today, anybody have an opinion on them? Comments
would be appreciated.

Bill Cara, You do a wonderful job here. I have been waiting with baited breath each morning to read your thoughts & ideas. I have been invested in the markets in varying degrees for over 30 years. Your way of leading/teaching has had a very
profound effect on my trading over the last 9 months. Please carry this forward for the silent ones of us that read you a lot but do not post daily.

Vavoline6

ALOHA !!

proudPapa ... MOLYCOR GOLD - MOR.V/MLYFF.PK had a prior assay news release showing some high Moly grades. After the assays the company added more claims around the Crowrea Moly property. I suspect that has more to do with it ... Also they are drilling the gold and silver properties in Nevada and their platinum properties in Canada.

I participated in the last PP(Private Placement)at 200,000 shares.

Management was buying more throughout Sept.

PMI GOLD - PMV.V/PMVGF.PK I also participated in their last PP for 200,000 shares.

This week the CEO and insiders added 525,000 shares to their holdings. I always like to see management buying BIG.

ECU SILVER - ECU.V/ECUXF.PK In the last news release aside from the new vein they mentioned 43-101 to be released for one project in the 4Q2007 and the other by the end of 2007. Both 43-101 will be substantial additions to M&I ... As I have said before I would eat "poi" if their silver reserves were less than 500mil ounces and their gold reserves were less than 4mil ounces! Their strategy has shifted to "reserve priority" not production, which I feel is logicsl for now because the current production set up in terms of capacity will not be enough once they report their 43-101 updates and feasability. I believe the reserves will be so large they will need to completely revisit milling capacity and refine circuits in a big way.

Assay grades in the latest news release show some good Ag and Au but some higher than usual Lead(Pb) and Zinc(Zn) grades.

I am long ECU SILVER.

ECU management were also buying in Sept ...

During my trip to Australia in 2008 I will be in the heart of mining country for over a month. That would be Western Australia at Perth and Kalgoorlie and down to Bunbury ... I plan to take advantage of that and meet with as many junior management that I can. I have three lined up so far ... two of which I am a shareholder. Can't wait to do a few Aussie tinnies down the cake hole mates! AH YEAH ... Last visit to OZ was in 1998 ... I think that's too long!!!

ALOHA !!

Bill ... I have to say that I spent my youth from 17 to 24 in Australia and it was one of the best times of my life. So naturally I equate going to Australia as revisiting my youth and those good times! Plus all my Aussie friends from that era are still alive and right there in Perth ...

I wonder what the USDX will be by JAN? In my youth I did not contemplate such weighty thoughts as the US Dollar's value. When I first lived in Australia in 1969 one US Dollar was worth $0.85AUD. I did have to think about going to the Vietnam War though. That reality hit like a ton of bricks the day I walked into the US Consulate in Perth and signed up for the "draft"! My 57 year old farming pal down the road visited today and we were talking about that. He says he still has his draft card. I said to him, "Hopefully they won't call you up to serve in Iran!" Age has a way of changing one's perspective on the World.

I leave Honolulu on 12/31/2007 and return to Honolulu on 2/7/2008. Staying a few days in Waikiki before coming back to Hilo. Flying QANTAS all the way !! G'day ... where are all the Qantas Hosties?