Thank You Bill, for the much needed commentary.

I will print this and use it to help inform those who must be informed about these matters.

Excellent.

If gold futures hold it's nearly $7 gain today, GSS should recover in the high 390's and get ready to advance.

The problem with these systems Bill is that they have historically "ridden the coattails" of our Capitalist medical system.

That is, the discoveries (especially in the pharma area) are driven by only one thing - big money.

There are all sorts of problems that come with this model. Chief among them is that diseases such as Type II diabetes, which is almost 100% controllable for people who have it by getting refined sugar out of their diet and the extra weight off, is instead treated with pharmaceutical products.

Clearly, a pair of running shoes and LESS down the piehole is cheaper than a $20/pill prescription. Yet we write a lot of those scripts.....

Socialized medicine will inevitably change this. It has to. We simply can't put on society the costs of those who choose lifestyles that are manifestly unhealthy. This is going to have a major impact on America, and almost certainly in ways that a LOT of people won't like.

The "Big Pharma" interests won't like it for certain. But neither will a lot of Americans, who suddenly will be faced with the reality - when they are forced to eat the costs of their choices, and its not just money any more, but THEIR HEALTH - which is likely to be rather troubling to a society that has gotten very used to the idea that you can eat like a pig, drink like a sailor, screw anything you want and then stick society with the monetary costs.

Tying medical care to employment is clearly a bankrupt policy and needs to change. But this is not a trivial problem to solve because we have embedded incredible inefficiencies and incentives to "pump" the cost of one's care.

Ultimately we have to have a very frank and difficult discussion as Americans. Facts are that the last year of your life consumes 80% of all your lifetime health care spending. This is clearly unsustainable and reality is that we will have to accept that this last year will only be available if you have the funds to pay for it privately. That alone would make the goal achievable.

Now try to get it to happen ......

At least we will still be able to screw what we want.....

It's the crappy food, sit on yer ass lifestyle, and that bunch of greedy middlemen stealing our healthcare funds that hurts.

To put this in pers[ective, my daughter is a Veterinary Technician. I breed and train herding dogs. It's our profession.

When I can buy the EXACT same antibiotic for my dogs for literally 1/4 the cost to humans dispensed directly from the Vet, I SEE the problem. It's that army of middle hands that produce NOTHING but red tape that is kiloing the care system.

Another doozy is treatments like artificial insemination/reproduction issues. I can collect and store semen for about $250 and store it for a year for $54. Insemination (surgical) can be done for under $2000. Try that with humans, which are actually LESS advanced than animal medicine (as that is where the expertise and techniques are developed).

There is no fundamental reason for this difference other than greed.

Gold has been doing a lot of fake-out moves this week. Yeserday I sold my gold stock with futures up 4 bucks. Then it swung 8 dollars to DOWN 4 bucks. It's "messin'" around right here.

Case, thank you for the earlier info on Interactive Brokers. Definitely looking into it.

i always enjoy this blog, its part of my morning reading.

but i would like to offer a different point of view as a canadian working in the medical feild in Ontario:

anyone who works in health care can tell you that the majority of hospitals in major urban centres (where the vast majority of canadians live) are understaffed and face critical shortages of specialists, diagnostic equipment and nurses.

there are enough of all these assets in the country, we have over 20 medical schools pumping out graduates and we allow hundreds of doctors every year to immigrate to canada in hopes of plying their trade to fill the gaps.

the government at every level neglects to mention what the real problem is: money.

wait times for an MRI in toronto vary but are generally in the 2-3 month range. lucky i dont have to pay directly for an MRI but i do have to wait some time to get it. how long of a waiting time can we endure before we no longer rejoice at our public health care system?

the government cant simply purchase another MRI machine to speed up the wait times because the fiscal expenditures would be to great a burden on provincial budgets who are seeing health-care spending only increasing despite recent taxes levied against ontario residents in the form of a "health care premium",

essentially in ontario we are paying increased taxes for longer wait times.

that being said we do enjoy a fantastic health care system in many respects, Toronto Children's hospital is a world leader is pediatric care, Toronto Western Hospital and Sunnybrook are world class institutions and attract the kind of expertise that many proponents of the american system beleive we couldnt do because of the mistaken belief that pulbic health care lacks innovation.

our problem is one of sharing space, hip replacement surgery in non-emergency cases can see people wait 1-3 years depending on the severity of their condition. anyone who suffers from a hip problem is forced into a handicapped state for upwards of 2 years before being granted a surgery to fix them.

the costs to have this surgery in teh states is astronomical for most canadians, so they wait,
and again, if the problems lie in a lack of facilities and doctors as teh governments claim, then allow people to have the procedures performed in the US and refund the patient at canadian rates which in some sectors of the US (and now with virtual dollar parity) may not end up costing the patient much more.

the government does this in very limited amounts, because it is not willing to expend the funds to do this on a large scale but avoids admitting this fact. its a problem that is sadly growing.

billions are spent by canadians in the US seeking private health care and diagnostic services, while public health care purists decry this activity the federal and provincial governments quietly do nothing to stop it, and if anything encourage it to take some burden off the public system (as evidenced by the provincial governments silence on the issue of cross border medical services- an MRI costs say $600 in the US, you transport that film back across the border not likely paying duty on $600 worth of US goods... had you attempted this with booze, you face potential fines and vehicle impoundment)

the government quietly had done nothing to stop growing wait lines which accelerates the rate at which wealthier canadians are more willing to spend their own money on services in the US, which has a que jumping effect:

if you report to your doctor a lump in your breast you will wait upwards of several weeks for a mamogram. once teh film is reviewed by your family doctor you will be ref'd to a specialist if needed, several weeks away. had you traveled accross the border the day your doctor suggested a mamogram, brought it back the following day and were ref'd to a specialist, you would have effectivey been ref'd to a specialist that much faster than the canadian who couldnt afford the quicker diagnostic procedure, in effect creating a modest 2-teir system.

sadly this problem is growing despite government sophistry about improving health care in canada.
its not a complete mess as some would contend but its becoming a greater issue that is not being addressed beyond marketing campaigns by officials that proclaim things are great and getting better when in fact this is only happening in some areas for some procedures, but millions have no family doctor, and smaller towns/northern area's cannot attract doctors to ply their trade, a public system is not adequately rewarding doctors to work in area where so few wish to.

anyone who lives in wasaga beach, 1.5 hours north of toronto remembers when a new family doctor moved into town, it made the front page news, his roster was full and closed by the first morning he opened his clinic. anyone with idealized notoin's of canada's heath care system simply compares it to the US which is like saying there is no poverty here because its worse in africa.

sorry for the extra long diatribe, just venting!!!!!

OT: For Firefox users that have Broadband

Here's something for broadband people that will really speed Firefox up:

1.Type "about:config" into the address bar and hit return. Scroll down and look for the following entries:

network.http.pipelining network.http.proxy.pipelining

network.http.pipelining.maxrequests
Normally the browser will make one request to a web page at a time. When you enable pipelining it will make several at once, which really speeds up page loading.

2. Alter the entries as follows:

Set "network.http.pipelining" to "true"

Set "network.http.proxy.pipelining" to "true"

Set "network.http.pipelining.maxrequests" to some number like 30. This means it will make 30 requests at once.

3. Lastly right-click anywhere and select New-> Integer. Name it "nglayout.initialpaint.delay" and set its value to "0". This value is the amount of time the browser waits before it acts on information it recieves.

If you're using a broadband connection you'll load pages MUCH faster now!

I found this on the internet and set-up my Firefox like this works much better.

Hello Bill. Glad to hear your mobe to Bahamas went well. I recently returned from the tropics after a 2 month stint building a school with the locals. An incredible experience. It was simply amazing to see how fast the locals learned trades.

I just got out of hospital after a 15 day visit. Nothing to do with the trip. I have the ability to pay my hospital bills, but like everyone here in Canada I did not pay a cent other than $15 for the phone bill. I since donated the costs to the Hospital building fund. I believe Americans deserve a similar system.

Bill,
I do not think that the American people are willing to wait months for MRIs or non-urgent operations. Many Canadians come to the US to have their medical procedures done.
The US needs desperately to bring costs down, but not by having the government involved.

I updated the Core Capital Goods as % of Durable Goods. This number tracks Business Investments and it is at second lowest level this decade.

I am not a fan of socialized medicince personally. After listening to those that are proponents of socialized medicine and those that are not it's my opinion that there is misinformation coming from both sides. 20/20 did an outstanding special just two weeks ago on the pro's and con's.

When you have time please view this video on the Whole Foods plan.

http://tinyurl.com/27cpa9

20/20 article on health care:

http://tinyurl.com/2sljyn

have a great day.

MU- unloaded entire position into the open, still moving towards 100% cash...

MHP and MCO are moving nicely as the Senate investigation hearing concludes. I think the worst is over for these two and they could see a nice 15-20% bounce from these oversold positions.

ET update: ET reporting problems with Power ET Pro this morning- hangs, fails to update, updates slowly, fails to launch at all - many calls from Boston, more from across the nation, so not localized to the East Coast, and not specific to one service provider. Suggests trades should be made through the website, or over the phone. Source: tech support.

NOT halted at the open on pending news.

Telestar3d...

Good tip on Firefox speedup. Helped mine a bunch.

Telestar,

Thanks so much, helps a lot. And yet another reason to visit this blog!

I have been following HERO as it has been mentioned recently and looks like a good value. The 5-day chart seems to be setting up nicely for a possible pop later today. (50) SMA is moving up towards (200) SMA (on the 5-day).

Bill -

Sorry, but I fail to see how a union entering the health care business should be cause for celebration. GM wiggles out of a commitment made during its golden years and can turn the page by writing a big check. Anyway, this long-anticipated move continues the secular trend of transferring risk/decisions to the individual and shouldn't have surprised anybody (the government would have picked up the tab if GM and the union had played chicken to the bitter end).

I still find amazing that the U.S. electorate has not decided that health care is a necessity for all and should be provided the same access as higher education. Rather than engaging in campaigns between polar models, I fail to see why the co-existence of a multi-tier system is impossible for preserving a population's health when it is common place to study business or lit through community colleges, public and private universities.

JML

Gold makes a little fake-out up-move each morning which fails.

Chris, See Colin Twiggs last post RE: gold.

Gotta build a base at 730. This is good in the long run.

When you notice food, gas, commodities going down and the Iraq debacle is over, then gold will retreat on a longer term basis.

Of course I expect some will trade it on the ups and downs....but the trend isn't down.

I'm writing this from a Best Western in Mt. Vernon, WA, near Grey's place.

I'm working a dog trial today so I raised cash on the open and will be running off for now.

Have a great day everyone!

Bad Housing data = market up because fed will lower rates

good housing data = market up because housing is bottoming

i guess any news is good news.

Recalling the history of financial mismangement, embezzlements, and corruption in the Teamsters union, I can't help but think they'll screw this fund up.

Either that or they'll hire some friend as money manager--like one of those guys shark was writing about a few days ago. Same result.

Or BOTH of the ABOVE.

Will Rahal. You are absolutely right that many Canadians go to the US for MRI's. They also go when the get a cold. These are the rich and famous who simply want to see if there is anything wrong with them. One of my neighbours did exactky that a few months ago. Absolutely nothing wrong with him. On my second day in hospital I had a MRI which I consider a reasonably short wait.

Will Rahal. You are absolutely right that many Canadians go to the US for MRI's. They also go when the get a cold. These are the rich and famous who simply want to see if there is anything wrong with them. One of my neighbours did exactky that a few months ago. Absolutely nothing wrong with him. On my second day in hospital I had a MRI which I consider a reasonably short wait.

re Seamus post:

i agree,

i think this has in effect tranfered one serious problem from one hands to another, the difference being that it is far more politically expedient for the government to bail out one of the largest union's in the nation should they prove unable to fund future health care costs rather than a corporation.

While both sides of the health care issue have valid points, I side with the Dr. Cosas of the world that illuminate how bad it could get. For a society that has among the worst health problems in the world because of sheer laziness and sedimentary lifestyle (after I leave the office, I'm in the gym everyday and diet strictly), this could be a disaster. And with an aging population and ever-increasing obesity rates, it's going to get much, much worse. I agree that SERIOUS reform needs to take place, from pharma to payers to lobbyists. But with an insurmountable debt at-hand, adding to the burden taxpayers are soon to feel is not the solution.

I have always been in favor of equality, respect, inalienable rights, etc., but at some point idealism and altruism have to face a harsh reality: why should you incentivize those that choose not to work as hard as others (college, ambition, etc.) or don't care of themselves, while penalizing those that do to pick up the tab for them? In theory, socialism and communism are compelling ideas that would benefit the greater good. Why then don't they work? Human nature.

On a side note, I have speculated for a long time that the reason that pharmaceuticals canbe sold in Canada and other countries at prices so much cheaper than the US, is because they have to, and it represents incremental income with incredible margins. However, the real income is generated from US sales, where if you were to stifle the amount of profit that could be realized downstream, you may see a significant drop in companies willing to undertake incredibly expensive R&D for that next revolutionary drug, because the cost/benefit may not be there. After all, there's never any certainty that anything viable will come of it, and it's often the high profits on the 5% of successes that absorb those front-end costs. Obviously, this is just conjecture, but if it were to happen, GOD help us.

Got knocked out of my positions in Fancamp (FNC) and MacDonald Mines (BMK) this morning on an explosive runup due to Noront (NOT) assay results. Can't complain because I made 50% in a week. These three stocks are swinging gates with huge trading volumes. I will likely reload if they come back to me at FNC (1.55) and BMK (.26). I also hold Freewest (FWR) but its volumes and price movements aren't as exciting. I'm not playing NOT.

seamus:

Are you still exposed to ag equities? I read commentary by Don Coxe, who strikes me as cut from the same cloth as our host...complement!, mentioned that ag companies are not cheap but the right sector. I wonder if even now it would be good time as any to start scaling in; the big opportunity may never really materialize. Trying to catch bottoms and tops can become counter productive OR i'm just not patient. The ag etf would be convenient but looks like something folks are chasing.

Railroads was mentioned, as well. Nice to see reference to something that's not "hot" price wise even if Buffett puts them in the news. As long as emerging countries export and import, RRs look to be the preferred transportation. Are their global candidates in this sector worth exploring?

2nd ave.
I lightened up in gold, but not by much. Sold my loosers: hmy and grz. If I put aside fear and just look at the charts past highs/resistance are looking more like support. The rsi has not broken down as in past peaks. Then again the move off the bottom on the miners has been huge...even in the seniors...like kgc. With Newmont talking about lack of proven reserves, does this help prop up support in the sector? The professional traders in this sector must have racked up huge returns with the volatility. All things considered I still have a lot of cash, just not 100 percent.

Telestar3d

Many thanks for the tip - works great.

RobBoss

Bill, know you're running errands this a.m. Interested in your take, if any, on the KGC/GG gold/silver asset swap. Involves holdings in Canada and Chile.

http://tinyurl.com/33wutw

GRZ:
Five times the daily average volume traded so far. Anyone know of any news/ rumor?

Been watching a number things, thanks.

Credit markets in the 'A' category have recovered a fair bit, but not in the 'B.'

If anyone could provide a chart for COTs on gold markets, that would be helpful at this point.

Now and futures.com crisis monitor:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/financial_crisis.html#predict_crisis

Gold/Silver ratio weekly:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p77982486467

Health Care

Firstly, there is no saying that private health care is so superior in nature that shortages will not appear during a credit crisis. In a society which spends more on health care than just about any other yet can only provide for a minority with good credit and money to burn, the result will be the reverse of what is intended, which was to provide the best health care in the world. Rather it will be the fastest track to impoverishment in the world, and the majority will be left to fend for themselves.

Big pharma also has problems, providing treatments which do not work as intended, for example SSRIs, which were "supposed" to cure depression, but causes more problems or has little effect. Private markets in either health care or pharma will ensure only profitable treatments, though I agree innovations can come from that venue.

Many of the innovations that come out of research are done in the educational field, as is the case in all fields of research. So I would say that bolstering research is the only way to go.

The formula I would chose is fair taxation, have everyone pay their fair share(no corporate welfare) and set limits to outright usury and pay more than casual attention to fraud in the capital markets.

Bill, please don't take things personal my post was a general reply and not a response to you. Maybe I could of stated it clearer but in any event not every one all the time will see things the way you do. I am just the average American citizen that is learning the difference between socialized, universal or whatever the lexicon is. Sometimes when posting I, like others make quick assumptions and write faster than I am able to think therefore I generalized the Canadian system as Socialized... My bad. There is no need to be the final authority on all subjects. Your argument is compelling and the market will debate it out. Peace.

I'd just like to add that it's a blessing and a curse that this site exists.

It's a blessing because it allows for the expression of opinion, backed by intellectual dialogue, and mutual respect, in discussing critical issues that affect all of us globally. My favorite thing is when I can read something here that changes my perspective on something....and it happens a lot.

It's a curse, because it should be the norm, and nowadays it's not. A little depressing....

Bill, traders, philosophers, contributors, et al:

I am one of the many here that are learning a lot and adjusting my portfolio risk management and trading strategies accordingly. While only a very occasional poster, I lurk on this site a lot especially during the early morning hours preparing for the trading day. My interpretation and execution of the advice found here has made me a small bundle (relative to my investment assets) in the past few weeks and, as importantly, saved me a big bundle. For that I thank you all and thank you in advance for your continuing commentary.
=====================

telestar3D
I made the changes you outlined but haven't used it enough yet to notice a difference.

I did want to comment on making changes that affect performance you don't see at first. Two Saturdays ago I installed Google WebAccelerator that is supposed to load web pages faster as well. Worked fine. Except Monday morning (and for 3 days after) I was having major problems with my data download feed to my charting program Amibroker. After 15 emails to both the tech supports at Amibroker and the data provider I still had not come up with what was causing the problem. This was extremely frustrating as I pride myself on fixing my own problems. Then it occurred to me that the only change to my system was the WebAccelerator. Uninstalled it and no more problems.

My point is, just watch if you have unintended consequences of making changes to your system. You may have to go back and undo them!

JogyP - good questions GRZ is up in volume, and KRY is up 4% in price.

This would be important:

Investors Seek Extension To Restructure Cdn ABCP

September 27, 2007 11:32am ET

By Monica Gutschi

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--Investors who hold about C$35 billion in Canadian asset-backed commercial paper are seeking an extension of a stand-still agreement as they work to restructure the debt.

"Given the highly complex process and the significant number of stakeholders involved, a successful restructuring cannot be completed by mid-October in respect of all of the affected conduit trusts" Purdy Crawford, who heads the committee overseeing the restructuring, said in a release. "The progress achieved to date, however, speaks to both the investor confidence that has been placed in our committee and the commitment of all key stakeholders to work cooperatively towards a successful restructuring of the Third Party ABCP."

Canada's ABCP market was thrown into turmoil in August after Coventree Inc. (COF.T), the largest issuer in the non-bank ABCP market, announced it was unable to roll over some of its maturing notes and was being denied funding by some of its liquidity providers.

Liquidity is key in the ABCP market, where short-term commercial-paper issues are backed by longer-term securities, such as mortgage and car loans and CDOs.

The problems spread as other ABCP conduits proved unable to access liquidity, compelling 10 major players in the market to announce a framework called the "Montreal Proposal" to stabilize the market. The proposal included converting the ABCP issues into floating-rate notes with maturities that matched the underlying assets.

Under a stand-still agreement, participants would roll over paper until Oct. 1 until the paper could be restructured.

The committee said Thursday that it has the support of 82% of ABCP investors for the Montreal Proposal. As well, it said it had achieved investor support ranging from 66.7% to 98% for each of the 22 non-bank conduits covered by the standstill agreement.

The committee also said it has hired J.P. Morgan as its financial adviser for the process.

A conference call to discuss the progress of the Montreal Proposal is scheduled for 11:30 a.m. EDT.

-Monica Gutschi, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2017; monica.gutschi@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-27-07 1131ET

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Proof of concept?

Wednesday September 26, 8:33 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The planned $25 billion buyout of student lender Sallie Mae was thrown into jeopardy Wednesday after the investors said terms of the deal were no longer acceptable.

Don't I remember Bill warning us to be on the look-out for M&A deals falling through?
Now all we need is a couple of big bankruptcies & POOF!!!

Fransix

COT reports: http://www.cftc.gov/

Health -

I think the highest return investment anyone over 30 can make is gradually to improve their diet, and to develop a regular regime of exercise.

Fidelity in 2005 published estimates of $190K out-of-pocket for the averaged retired couple over 20 years. Maybe good diet and exercise can halve that.

Over time, you can gradually move your eating habits towards the healthy things you enjoy. And you can find exercise that you enjoy and build into your schedule: perhaps fast walking and biking; dumbbells and stretching.

I think of such measures as my REAL health insurance. Because once the "sickness industry" gets ahold of you, they don't seem ever to let go.

COTs

Thanks.

Every once in a while, somebody comes up with a chart, I would just like to look them up myself. Though, those numbers seem awfully high.

jasper---- yes, I still have some AG sector exposure with a few stocks. I track 30 AG related stocks. I'd avoid and do not track some of the downstream food stocks that have increasing costs from the sector along with difficulties in passing along these costs to the targeted customer.

A few days ago, I posted my reentry into SFD as it passed thru and above 30 Daily RSI7. I thought it had been oversold. It's not my favorite company in the sector, but has offered opportunities over this year. I use Bill's RSI system as well as watching the trendline on this one.

There are opportunities to scale into some AG sector stocks, but you have to await pullbacks. The Brazilian AG stocks can have big moves and are sensitive to U.S. interest rates. Overall story, I'm still positive and agree with Coxe's viewpoint.

I know you follow ETFs and the MOO etf covers the sector the best IMO. I look for pullbacks to scale in, but have no holding at this time.

Fransix:

http://www.cotstimer.blogspot.com/

This blogger has developed his own system of interpreting the COTs. He argues that the commercials are the ones to follow, with a time lag.

Jogy,

From what I can tell, the stock GRZ is doing nothing more than setting up decently on the 60m with a couple of hammers yesterday and a cross over the 20-period, and of course, decent volume today.

I've actually put together an Excel spreadsheet that tracks COT in various markets using simple trend graphs. It could easily be adapted to other markets. I'd be happy to share it with the community if there's sufficient interest.

Regarding GRZ, there's 0 option activity. That's something I look for to confirm a spike in average trading volume.

Telestar3d, thanks for the Firefox tip.

COTs

A good deal of speculation that a short squeeze is in the cards for the next couple of weeks.

I am not a believer though and GRZ still looks like an
Amtrack-sized train wreck to me, downtrend wise. Fundamentally, I wouldn't touch Venezuela at all now, and I mean, at all!

One more thing with regard to GRZ, it has now moved below its March lows.

Anyone invested in VZ has a right to be supremely frustrated with the Chavez government. Their action (or continued inaction) seems taken more out of spite than sound management of natural resources.

Although I have to admit the technicals look ok on the 60m, so it's probably due for a pop here but still.

Fransix

I follow the COT reports, but I can't ever remember seeing a chart for them. There are some pretty nifty spread sheets but no charts.

SBUX downgraded by BAC to $23 price target.

UPDATE on out-of-pocket retiree medical expenses -

I just found Fidelity's March, 20007 estimate for costs over 20 years for a couple retiring in 2007:

$215,000 - up 13% from their March, 2005 estimate!

So, let's all pump iron, and run for our lives! LOL

http://tinyurl.com/2tzc9r

Number2son -

Chavez is not trying to spite us KRY babies. He doesn't CARE about us. But, then nor does Mr. Market!

Chavez is busy fighting the devil, and freeing Colombian hostages, and receiving Hollywood movie stars!

In his place, would YOU be worrying about our little gold mine? I wouldn't be ...

i enjoy these kinds of discussions and appreciate your comments in follow up Bill.

i think the greatest myths perpetraed by americans who favour a private system is that Canada fails to attract quality doctors and lacks innovation which is simply untrue.

i had stated that the care is there, as is the modern equipmet but its an issue of timing. for emergency and critical cases, or for those in serious condition we are very fortunate to have access to quality care, but the issue is for the vast underbelly of health issues that see people and families suffer needlessly under long wait times and delayed access to quality care.

im on a waiting list for 11 months to see an orthopedic surgeon for my knee, and a possible surgical date another 6 months from there, in the mean time my mobility is limited and my life is hampered somewhat by the lack of speedier surgery. its not an end of the world scenario but it represents one of many compromises canadians are being asked to make and sadly these compromises are growing in number and in duration, and that is what worries many of us.

so any examination of "canada's" health care model cannot occur in a vacum, it is changing and evolving, and hopefully we learn to make it better,

sharing and talking about it like this helps, and hopefully we wont need critical care if we can stay healthy and happy...and a little more wealthy ;)

sorry to drag this out, its a topic close to my heart,

as always,

dr. cosa

KRY--dare I mention it? Having a positive day. I bought a smidgen yesterday (yes, I abandoned my principles) at 2.71.

Shark,
"stock GRZ is doing nothing more than setting up decently on the 60m ..."

I blveiee taht Smethnig's dirvign hte vloume tdoay

lower risk tolerance than leisa, so picking up GSS at 3.88..

I'd like to take Kaimu's advice about getting physical gold and silver. I apologize for the redundant question but who are the preferred online sources for gold and silver coins? I found several doing a Google search but I'd very much appreciate the community's opinion. Thanks in advance.

Jock, ouch! I accept your condemnation. ;)

Yet while Chavez might not give a moment's thought to KRY or its investors, he continues to allow unregulated exploitation of the mineral wealth in Bolivar state, which DOES have an impact on the well-being of the local environment as well as the material well-being of the people of the region and his country at large.

I know. I know. There's nothing like a loss of one's hard earned investment dollars to inspire righteous (or self-righteous) indignation.

GRZ, with respect to GRZ, it has 8 block trades with volume of 925,400. So make of it what you will. As for me, I’m not interested in that country.

Also keep in mind that we have end-of-month and end-of-quarter so things should get marked up to some extent. As evidence (speculation), with this dull market day look at the action of NMX and VMC. To me this some Bigfoot marking up their book for EOQ. Long both.

GRZ, with respect to GRZ, it has 8 block trades with volume of 925,400. So make of it what you will. As for me, I’m not interested in that country.

Also keep in mind that we have end-of-month and end-of-quarter so things should get marked up to some extent. As evidence (speculation), with this dull market day look at the action of NMX and VMC. To me this some Bigfoot marking up their book for EOQ. Long both.

Very important info from jsminset.com regarding junior gold miners/hedging:

"The following article is Barrick fulfilling its 10b-5 requirement informing its stock holders clearly of two things.

1. Since Barrick intends to deliver against OTC forward sales, it will be delivering gold at $325 even if gold is trading at $1650 or better. Caveat for protection: You know how I feel about gold.
2. Because Barrick declares its intention to deliver, the company avoids the major impact of having to mark to market losses on the forward sales. This is Canadian GAAP (General Accepted Accounting Practices).

Now the inviting question is this: Have the juniors holding percentage deals with companies like Barrick informed their shareholders that gold from their project MIGHT be delivered at $325? The answer to the best of my knowledge is NO. That looks like a major 10b-5 violation on the part of the percentage holder which could open the door to class action litigation.

Therefore, assuming we are in a very long term bull market for gold, the real beneficiaries of derivatives are as follows:

1. Whoever is on the buy side of Barrick's hedge.
2. Class Action Attorneys chasing percentage juniors and percentage junior producers with majors."

http://tinyurl.com/39sou3

This goes to Kaimu's point about Barrick's bankers and the international advisory board full of political big shots that Barrick put together.

number2son:

There's unregulated mining in Colombia, Brazil, probably in all developing countries which have mineral wealth. The governments don't have the resources to control it, except possibly in the strictest of dictatorships - which Venezuela is not.

ALOHA !!

We do have a government run health care system here in America ... Problem is you have to be over 60 to join it! Its called MEDI-CARE!! That like all else the US government touches is also a failure ... Pretty soon Medi-Care premiums will be equal to Blue Cross premiums!

So far nobody here has spoken to the rampant medical service price inflation tied to monetary inflation. Awhile back last year after my Father passed away I posted my Grandfathers insurance card from the Dallas Employers Insurance Group dated 1949. Back then an x-ray was $5 and a one day stay in the hospital was also $5. A minor surgery was $15 and a major surgery ranged from $75 to $150 depending on what it was. So whats changed since then? Is there more BIG corporate greed? I would say yes. Yet still an x-ray is an x-ray basically, even 50 years later. A hospital bed is a bed and a nurse is a nurse ... even 50 years later!! Of course there are new technologies and new drugs that only R&D can produce but even those would be lower if it were not for one reason ... monetary inflation.

In a sense medical costs "are" socialized here in the USA already. When the US government prints up more money to pay for new schools and transport systems and roads and defense and social and welfare programs we become more socialist because taxpayers and those that no longer pay taxes still pay higher costs through the hidden tax of monetary inflation. I don't care what anybody says there is "NO FREE LUNCH" anywhere so long as government continue to spend and print money. The other factor that causes increased costs is government regulation and lawsuits. Malpractice insurance is off the charts here in the USA. Across the board the USA litigates 1000% more than any other country in the World. Who benefits from that? Could it be ... Attorneys? What exactly are most politicians in office today? Hummmmm???? Could it be ... Attorneys? Look no further than the saviour of the poor ...Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards!

Here in the America the US government will be forced to "socialize" because of the oncoming wave of baby-boomers and their overriding need for medical care. Its just a fact the older you get the more illness and injuries occur. Healing times take longer for older people and older people are more susceptible to complications and infections. In other words the US government will probably take over the UAW and other union retirees pensions and health care as well as everyone else both public and private. The rich will always find the best health care with the least wait time.

Perhaps America should reinstate "competition" back into the medical and drug system. Seems that is a major missing component.

To reduce costs to consumers across the boards we as a Nation would be wise in dismantling BIG GOVERNMENT and their rising tide of monetary inflation that begets a lesser purchasing power for the US Dollar.

As an aside ... I just got a newsletter from AARP recommending health care overseas in foreign countries like Thailand and India. You get a vacation plus substantially cheaper medical costs performed in high tech hospitals with US trained doctors. Downside? Follow up visits and no legal recourse. At some point that may be the GO-TO solution ... According to the article ... it already is!

Can any bloggers in Thailand or India comment on inflows of Americans for medical treatments? Can you also comment on hospitals that specialize in American/foreign patients? If so, are they publicly traded on your stock exchanges? That works as long the US Dollar is significantly stronger than the Thai Baht ... I see that as a wave of the future as inflationary pressures shred any notion of affordable health care no matter how socialistic the American system gets. I could also see at some point Thai hospitals no longer accepting a US Dollar but gladly accepting a British Gold Sovereign!

2nd_ Looks like KRY is sitting on some pretty good support. Of course, when I say a smidgen, I mean a smidgen!

Jock, that's one of the more compelling arguments for why the VZ should approve KRY's permit without further delay.

Leisa,

Enjoy your blog. I recall you saying you weren't in KRY awhile ago due to your not liking the risk reward, or something along those lines. Since I am always eager to learn, why exactly, if you don't mind telling, of all days did you buy KRY yesterday?

ETFC - Yesterday's upward reversal continues; now @ 12.80. Shorts covering?

Shark_ Well, I did say that I abandoned my principles! I happened to look at a chart. I've not looked at it in a while. It seemed like it was sitting on some support. Of course, it could crash right through. It did not participate in any of the gold rush of late. When I say smidgen, I mean smidgen: 500 shares. I've made a whopping $52.50 dollars after fees.

It's definitely showing us something price wise today, if not on huge volume.

I hope the crazy man gives you the permit today!

PS: love to hear about what happens when a lady abandons her principles. (though hopefully, not her principle).

or is that principal....yes, i think it is.....

ALOHA !!

moab ... Sinclair is a very savvy investor with decades of specialized experience dealing with juniors and major miners and the precious metals markets. I can't hardly believe that Barrick is an actual mining company any more but instead a Private Equity firm for the politically well endowed buying up producers and juniors alike with JP Morgan aka: US FED funny money! Barrick has turned into the FED's "deep storage" line item with "evergreen" incentives! They even act like the high powered US politicians that own them trampling down the local people near their mines. What major mining company can boast an entire website that is dedicated 24/7 to protesting the behaviour and morality of Barrick execs? I posted the "Protest Barrick" website in one of my posts in yesterday's discourse.

As an aside I only have one junior in my portfolio with a connection to a major mining company ... Teck Cominco. I have no juniors that are "forward selling". I have no worries ...

tele ... I can recommend APMEX ... American Prescious Metals Exchange also CNI ... California Numismatic Investments. I buy British Gold Sovereigns all pre 1933. The US Air Force recommends Sovereigns and they have been around since 1533. The most recognized and valued gold coin in the World BAR NONE! If it is purity and size you are after then the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf or the Aussie coins at the Perth Mint.

It's my personal principle's. and hopefully I will have not abandoned my principal ($$$$).

Interesting health discussion today. I think this debate falls into the "Grass is always greener . . " category.

As a Canadian (and just over 50), I am seeing more cases of the health care inefficiencies as the population ages and need for health care increases. I don't see it improving as every cog in the health care wheel have their own agendas. Many people see the Canadian health care as being "free". It isn't free. Our taxes are way higher to pay for this "free" health care. As has been mentioned above, if people abuse their health, they have the same access to health care as the next person that looks after their body.

So I have started thinking about the India solution as well. I want more information before booking a flight, but if at some point my doctor told me I had a growth that could be cancerous, I want to know where I might look for help other than my local hospital. As Dr. Cosa has pointed out, wait times to see a specialist are growing, and then there is a couple month wait to get a hospital bed after you've waited a couple months for the specialist appointment.

In the little bit I've read on medical treatment for foreigners in India/Thailand, it is a win-win situation. The foreigners are charged more and with those funds the hospitals are able to upgrade facilities/equipment so it helps their resident population. I have a .pdf of an article done by Bloomberg markets in 2005 on the subject. It talks about the different hospitals (and some are public companies). If anyone is interested, I could share it (but don't know how). I would also be interested in any other info.

Kaimu - Hallelujah! VERY well said.

GRZ:
Looking for a strong close and gap up tomorrow morning.

Contemplating going long a little grz...thanks J.

Hugh Cleland will be the guest on BNN Market Call tomorrow. He has consistently selected Western Gold Fields (WGI) as one of his Top-Picks each time he's been on the show during the past year. I have no position in WGI but, I do like it.

$4.02

Regarding Health Care,
I think there are two main problems in the US that need to be addressed.
First, too many people equate health care with health insurance and that thinking causes people to want complete and expensive health insurance. When I was younger we didn’t spend 1/3 of all health care dollars on insurance companies like we do now. Back then everyone had a catastrophic policy and then paid out of pocket for regular doctor visits and prescriptions. That allowed for more free choice and less overuse of the medical system. Back then you didn’t go to the doctor unless you had a real problem. Now people go when they have the sniffles or stub their toe because they have full insurance and either someone else is paying or it’s being deducted from their check before they see it. Also, most of these insurance companies including Medicare only pay doctors 60-80% of what the doctors bill. Is that how we treat the electrician or plumber when we need their services? So, doctors have to see a lot more people to break even and make the patients feel like cattle being herded through. Having only a catastrophic policy and even a prescription rider would cost far less than the full insurance. People could start medical savings accounts with the extra $$. Getting 100% of what they bill, doctors could see fewer patients per day spending more time with each one making everyone happier. Certainly there will be sicker people that need full insurance and they can purchase it if they choose.
Second, Medicaid covers more than the most expensive full insurance policy available. I’m not saying we shouldn’t take care of people who can’t afford insurance. But why offer them a plan that covers more than a plan I would pay 15K+ a year for? I think it would make a lot more sense for Medicaid to cover only what an essential plan would cover like limited doctor visits, limited prescriptions, and catastrophic care, the same things we get.

I think Universal Insurance may be good for some countries but not the US. We always want to preserve free choice above all else. That’s why our healthcare system is the envy of the world. Free Choice about whether to get health insurance or not or which level of insurance to get should always be left to the individual as should paying the healthcare bills. And the myth about all these uninsured is just that a myth. Some people don’t want insurance but everyone does receive care. No one ever gets turned away from an ER for not having money. And Medicaid never turns away anyone destitute who really needs health insurance.
Sorry for going on and on but this issue is close to home.

Kaimu,

There is a significant Health sector on the Thai SET. I used to play some of those stocks, viz. VIBHA and BGH, the latter being the absolutely top luxury hospital in Thailand, Bumrungrad.

There is a huge inflow of Gulf arabs coming for medical treatment in Bangkok, as well as others from around the globe.

Having had local Blue Cross insurance in Thailand, the best choice is just to pay cash, e.g. use a credit card. 6 years ago I needed a battery of tests spread out over several in patient days, which included a CAT and a MRI with consultation with the top ENT professor in Thailand and the total cost was under $1000.

I had a child born 8 years ago in the teaching hospital in Bangkok and a stay in a luxurious suite with all fees was a few hundred dollars.

As a contrast, my then wife with "full" insurance
coverage was kicked out of a shared hospital room in California 17 years ago after just one night, 15 hours after delivery of our child.

I much prefer the South African "medical aid", health insurance solution which I now subscibe to.
South Africa also has a large inbound customer base.

Oil Sands Severance Tax????

Jeffrey Saut, at Raymond James, often writes an interesting commentary and if this one has already been posted, I apologize for repeating it. In his Sept 24th comments, he mentions last year's "Halloween Surprise" out of Alberta in which Royalty Trusts were cannon-balled. This year, for Halloween, he refers to an "Alberta Ambush" coming out of Alberta Gov for a new, and severe, "Oil Sands Severance Tax".

Maybe such a tax is a good idea where new roads and new Gov services are needed, but do these people in charge really know how to go about it?

[clip and link to article - worth reading, imo]:
" ... The proposed (emphasize “proposed”) changes would hike the government’s Royalty rate from 25% to 33% combined with a sliding scale “Oil Sands Severance Tax” (OSST). Taken together, these changes could lift the government’s “take” from roughly 47% to 64% leaving the remaining 36% for the developers/investors ...."
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

Gold is such a faker these days. Every rally ends in folly.

I was a buyer of UXG today. It has reached down to its trend line on a daily chart that has a nice ascending triangle.

I love you guys!

Today is some a good example of you guys bringing stocks to my attention which are awesome, volume wise in one case and price wise in another. I think maybe this is where the stealth value is. The problem in this business is you can only keep your eye on so many things. But together, as a group, we could keep our eyes on everything. Neat idea eh?

Why can't I resist being jerked around by Hugo one more time? I won't chase KRY, so bought GRZ, which would also benefit, @ 4.02, with stop below its recent low 4% below entry, initial targeting 4.75 for risk/reward of 4.7

Please Hugo, come to your senses !

I've seen that there are some supporters of Birch Mountain (BMD) on this site. BMD is floundering under increasing operating costs and are now looking for a buyer. The company is about 70% off its 52 week high and is near its 52 week low. Another Canadian company which seems to be in the same business as BMD is Polaris (PLS). Polaris is trading very near its 52 week high and is on an uptrend. Also, the company just signed a strategic alliance with Cemex. The PLS bus has left the terminal and is too expensive for me because I'm not a momentum player. I have a couple of questions. Does anyone have an opinion why BMD is floundering while PLS is flourishing? Is BMD a good bottom-fisher buy here? I have no position in PLS or BMD.

ALOHA !!

Thanks Bobbie Fields ...

Hey ... if you vote for BIG GOVERNMENT then you have to be willing to pay the costs for a BIG GOVERNMENT that is corrupt. Is there any other kind of BIG GOVERNMENT other than corrupt? having a BIG GOVERNMENT means you pay more for everything you need to survive, including medical and food.

There is no reason why Americans and Canadians can't have Thailand medical prices and service. You just have to have the balls to get rid of BIG GOVERNMENT. That means you don't vote for Hillary or Obama or Bush or McCain or Romney or any of the BIG SPENDEERS. Any idiot that blurts out he'd double the size of Guantanamo would have no hesitation to double the size of BIG GOVERNMENT and its Iraq War!

I will vote for RON PAUL ... I don't care about his stance on abortion or global warming or gay marriage. I care about his dislike of BIG GOVERNMENT only. TO ME THERE IS ONLY ONE ISSUE ... BIG GOVERNMENT !!! I want to dump it ... I'd even give up any claim to my future Social Security and Medi-care benefis to accomplish that goal!

The price action in KRY is awesome...Congratulations you guys!

I recall reading recently that a large portion of foreclosures weren't due to ARM resets (at least not yet) but debt due to medical expenses. If so, then inadequate health insurance is playing a role in the real estate crisis. It would be useful to know how significant this is.

GRZ looking good

Kiron--most bankruptcies are due to medical expenses--and with that foreclosures.

Dump Big Government!!! Sounds like a great plan to me. Lets get someone who will cut spending enough to run a surplus and use the surplus to buy back Treasuries. Wouldn't that be amazing? People might actually take us seriously again if we could accomplish that.

Have any of you seen JRJC? It went from $15. to $38 since last Wednesday. Talk about the chinese stampede. Will it crash just as fast or rocket like BIDU?

KRY Exited at 3.03

Some decent moves today in the PMs. Bill cited opportunity in his daily comments.

Even palladium miner PAL (Long) up 7.8% today.

Chinese AG play SEED (Long) thru the 20 day, now at resistance @ 7.84 (EMA 50). Will be interesting to see if it finishes above.

Taking off the rest of the day. Good luck out there.

Spot, others:

I am holding a significant portion of my income portfolio in AAV - a Canadian open end royalty trust, currently yielding about 14.75% paid monthly. IF the proposed OSST passes, does one not assume that the Trust's income loss will be passed through to the unit holders in the form of reduced payouts? If so, why hasn't this shown up in price or volume?

IMO, Until KRY is forced to explain the "unusual price movement" by the TSX, the rumor of permit will carry KRY

Finger Lakes -

ER is the most expensive and worst care you can get. Just because people without health insurance can go there doesn't mean they can get the care they need. If you need surgery and have no insurance and can't pay, in many cases the hospital will not operate.

Even if you have insurance there is a chance the insurance company will not authorize the surgery. Michael Moore's film Sicko illustrates the story of man with cancer whose insurance company would not cover bone marrow surgery. He had insurance and he died. His wife worked for the hospital too.

Emgold has an offering to anyone who wants it, with no minimum purchase (hummm.). For $0.11 you get a share and a warrant. Emgold has been discussed here before. This is one working in an existing mine and waiting for a CA permit.
Any opinion on this type of deal is welcome.

VANCOUVER, Sept. 26 /CNW/ - Emgold Mining Corporation (EMR - TSX Venture)
(the "Company" or "Emgold") is pleased to announce it is proceeding with a
non-brokered private placement offering (the "Offering") to raise gross
proceeds of up to $8,000,000 through the offer and sale of units (the "Units")
of the Company at a price of $0.11 per Unit.
Each Unit will be comprised of one fully paid and non-assessable common
share of the Company (a "Common Share") and one transferable common share
purchase warrant (a "Warrant"). Each Warrant will entitle the subscriber to
subscribe for one additional previously unissued common share (a "Warrant
Share") in the capital of the Company for a period of 24 months following the
date of issue at an exercise price of $0.15 per Warrant Share.

Dear Bill!

Jogyp mentioned that he saw volume in a stock I bought and made money with.
Leisa wrote in mentioning a stock she bought which went up 10% AFTER she mentioned it.

This is the value. This is the "killer app". we can all make much more using each other's "eyes" to watch far more than we alone eve could.

Seamus, I'm with you on SEED. It's moved well over the last few days. I took a shellacking on it, but held. I'm now slightly green. I've about 2300 shares.

Bill, sending healing thoughts.

Re KRY, forget the permit, people. It's moving because I closed 1/2 my long position yesterday.

And yes, this was a position I've had open for awhile.

Sigh.

SiO2,
Never heard of Emgold. Just read on their website that Stephen Wilkinson, President and Chief Executive Officer of ValGold Resources Ltd. is a Director of the company.

Sorry about the redundency!

Seamus,

Re agricultural stocks,

Would you mind sharing the list of the ones you're tracking here?

Seamus--SEED has pierced through. Hope it holds and closes about 7.86

Moab,
Your examples are exactly why we need reliable catastrophic insurance and not Full Insurance. If the man in Michael Moore's movie had a catastrophic only plan for 20 years and saved the rest he used to spend on full insurance minus costs for doctor visits and prescriptions, he would have had enough $$ saved to cover the surgery from his own account if his catastrophic insurance wouldn't cover it.
For me the entire issue is about free choice. He chose to buy the expensive bumper to bumper insurance instead of saving his money. So whose fault is it when his expensive plan won't cover necessary care? That's Exactly why full insurance is the problem, especially when it's not "full".
Also, if the man would have enrolled in Medicaid he could have easily gotten the procedure. Medicaid will pay for nearly anything like I said before and they will surely pay for necessary surgery. I just don't think everyone should be forced into buying "insurance" if they don't want to. And I do believe Medicare should not be manditory as well.

Bill, Thanks for reading my post and for the great blog!!!

Thanks Bill and Fred. Already own this one, quite underwater but will keep it in the back pocket. At 0.11 it became a penny dreadful, but with a mine. Please let us know after the dinner with Mr. Wilkinson, it would be much appreciated.

Mixing gold, chicken and pork here, but it's quite a different story with SDA, up 40% since I last discussed with Seamus, this *plus* the appreciation on the R$ vs the USD. Just love this company.

Ok I'm out of GRZ FOR NOW at $4.20

Will rebuy hopefully today.
I know I'm very short term, but who scoffs at four and a half percent in an hour?

ALOHA !!

On EMGOLD ... I have to agree with Bill regarding the permit. I long ago looked at EMGOLD and saw their assays were much better in terms of grades than WGI and of course they have a past producing mine. They also need to do much more drilling to prove up past assays. Will it be easier to get a permit from the State Of California or CHAVEZ? Thats a toss up!

I own no shares of EMGOLD ...

GRZ -

shark_attack: Me, too. I'm out because it went up 4.5% on low volume.

A few random thoughts on this market sleepwalking toward quarter-end.

High-beta chasing (China, select tech darlings) reeks of performance desperation on the part of a few hedge fund (mutual fund(?)) managers. With "our boy" Ben's put under our feet, let's try to make up for an awful Jul. and Aug. in the nick of time. Survival instincts or desperate all-in gamble?

Dichotomy between tech/emerging markets and U.S. consumer sectors may be amplified by a relentless rebuild in portfolios by quant funds.

Too many rumors and too few warnings. A convenient hiatus from the companies, a good Q3 in the offing or did managers sandbag so much that they will meet and maybe not beat?

What are the odds that DJI prints 14K on close tomorrow? IXIC almost surely will make and close a new high.

In the post-Ben excitement, nobody's asking: where are the bodies? I mean it, where are they?

BSC/Buffet rumor last night reminded me that LTCM was left to beg for his help in 1998 and got strung until their collapse. Could it become that bad for Bear?

JML

Jumble--I'm in agreement with you. If I were a desperate HF mgr, I'd bid up the small float stocks and then short the heck out of them. I imagine there are a few desperate folks out there. But, I'm frequently wrong.

Hotwater

What do you mean low volume? You mean the price runup? Yeah, but still the volume today was huge, it'll show up in volume leaders and lots will hop on. I just can't help but ring the register on a safe, sure certain trade whose price objective, SHORT TERM wise was, for me, reached.

But I was really torn...I wouldn't have minded holding this one; in fact I was surprised I never got a re-entry oppty. Oh well. We can always hope for tomorrow:)

More importantly,.... Leisa!....... JogyP!...You two are my hero's today! Kudos deserved and accorded!

I still think Bill's really on to something here, and I've never felt that more strongly than today. We can triple, quadruple, TEN TIMES our profit by working together guys and ladies whose principles are sound and whose principal was increased as well..

By the way, did any of you unload KRY today? I would have been really tempted..Sat watching it at 3.80 did nothing....
bought GRZ though:)

On WGDF/WGI.TO

I did not see this on a review of all the postings today, if it has, sorry for cluttering the board.

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Toronto's Western Goldfields Inc. (WGI.T) has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by Wellington West Capital Markets Inc. and RBC Capital Markets to sell 9,840,000 shares at C$3.05 each, for proceeds of C$30,012,000.

Western Goldfields said the financing is scheduled to close on or about Oct. 12 and proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.
Western Goldfields is a mining company.

GRZ - Interesting how it stayed flat while KRY moved so strongly. Then GRZ broke out, and closed near its high. (never did equal KRY's move, which is curious , since they HAVE the bloody permit KRY is waiting for).

I have to agree with Shark that GRZ's volume on the day (although concentrated in a few block trades) will attract attention, and cause it to continue running tomorrow. I hope! - Long GRZ.

Seamus....
Nice entry on SDA...some charts just look nice and this is one.

2nd ave..
Nice entry on GSS. Are you feeling less fear about .xau? (not meant to be rhetorical) Maybe felt encouraged by reading "They did sell off a bit. But that sets up a buying opportunity." I wonder if that is meant to be for a very short horizon?

Personally spent the afternoon at a dental specialist. All experts are not equal. A pleasure to interact with a good observer and listener. Nothing high tech like the other guys who were actually much older and should have been wise but did a lot of damage. Nothing else my teeth tell me that this is too much stress to manage my entire account. It would be fun, though, to be here with less responsibility at stake and probably do better.

Tim Knight set up a discussion forum for his blog via groupswim.com. It's similar to the discourse section here, but the posts are segregated by topic. Maybe a service such as this could be beneficial to the Cara community. Just an idea.

AG (also gold)
I did a search last night. These links have quite a few ag companies....and a search of this blog will yield more too.

http://tinyurl.com/yrc6kv

http://tinyurl.com/246qm5

http://tinyurl.com/2pftvr
..good quote from above link:
The targeted companies are involved in various forms of agribusiness, including land and plantations, seeds and fertilizers, equipment manufacturing for planting and harvesting, crop protection, irrigation, aquaculture, bio-fuels, marketing and sales of agricultural products and climate services.

SEED--Closed at 7.93 USD. May wish I held onto KRY--like a greased pig, I couldn't hang onto it. NOt sure that there was a fundamental reason that it went up so quickly--which makes me suspicious. Though, hard to believe that a bit of chatting here about it would move it so much so soon. I hope the dollar stabilize. Oil at this level is not good.

I have a KRY position that has been significantly underwater for a while now, and which has been completely done with options. Instead of suffering more time decay while I wait around, I started closing my long calls today. I'm still going to stay long KRY for a while, but I'm cutting some losses. Also buying a few calendar spreads which should more than compensate for any time decay I have ahead of me.

Do I think they will eventually get the permit? Yes. But I have decided that I'm not going to make much of a bet on WHEN that will happen. I'm still fairly new to options trading, and I think I was underestimating the effect of theta in my earlier trades.

There was an interesting article on Leaps and warrents at the Kitco site.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Baker/sep252007.html

Is anybody making much use of warrents? I'm intrigued because unlike options you don't have to worry about premiums losing value. I notice that SLW has two or three warrents, but I would have no idea of which to pick. There are also warrents on KGC that would be a nice way to buy into gold's rise. I found that KGC seems to rise about twice as fast as gold when gold goes up so warrents would even do better. I like the idea of leverage without the hassles and hazards of options. The main issue would become position sizing to allow for the downside of warrents. The above article also references a website called preciousmetalswarrents.com. I looked at the site and thought about registering, but they want a bunch of personal information without the https (secure). They only go to https for your credit card info. Rather offputting.

Does anyone know if you can buy warrents for your IRA? Any thoughts you have on warrents would be appreciated.

t

First Time Poster

Orion Securities upgraded KRY today .Target price $9.50, ( Can )due to resource and reserve estimates .E-Trade users can see full report under analast tab.

Thank u Bill and the rest of the great posters.
Long KRY @2.92

joe

Leisa,

I think you did the right thing; time will tell, but that pig sure did squeal for you while you had it.

The other thing I did and I may live to regret this is I bought a small amount of GSS near the close.

BMD-

motley fool does a good job of summarizing the prospects of the company:

http://tinyurl.com/39tnph

..as well as the frustrating inability of the company to fulfill it promise:

http://tinyurl.com/38lm83

have to conclude the management team leaves much to be desired...and is probably now recognizing a sale or merger would be in its best interests:

http://tinyurl.com/23j67s

opened a position at 1.47 this morning (proudPapa's post yesterday rekindled interest in its prosects)...

jasper- my take on GSS this morning was watching it fall back towards the 9/20 breakout range of 3.77 to 3.85...suppose it could just as easily go down to fill in the gap at 3.65, but with gold and the miners moving up i took a chance it would move the other way...still holding...

Great article from Bloomberg to lighten things up.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aLepjRCRQ3go&refer=news

My apologies for the previous post.

BMD- link to story re strategic options should be replaced with the one below:

http://tinyurl.com/yoyme3

thanks, kaimu. i looked at blanchard and a site called goldmoney but figured you'd have some better suggestions. i hadn't allocated any of my portfolio to pm until i started to read this site earlier this year. bill and the community have really opened up my eyes. thanks to everyone.

2nd_ave,
Thanks for the links on BMD. Looks to me that at its current burn rate the company will go bankrupt in 2008. Also, with a book value of .40 per share and projected negative financials (with no break-even forecast or plan), I can't see why anyone would want to buy the company at $1.50. I hope that I'm wrong for your and proudPapa's sake.

not sure proudPapa has a position in BMD...as for me, i will try to trade the price swings as best i can...there is always more than meets the eye to any analysis, and perceptions and emotions are often more important influences on the price...many of the homebuilders can be "projected" to go bankrupt also, but it hasn't and won't stop counter-trend rallies and squeezes from taking place...

Point-taken.

Many thanks, Bill. I'm eagerly awaiting your book! Any chance I can get an autographed copy? By the way, my father had a first edition of Graham and Dodd's book "Security Analysis" which last time I checked is worth around $600 (before the dollar had a 7 handle). So I'm expecting your book to have a similar investment value!

Looks like gold is heading higher in Asia tonight.

As mentioned a few weeks ago, food inflation will show up in Japan. Tonight Blomberg reports:

"House Foods Corp. will raise prices of 116 items such as curry and instant noodles for the first time in 17 years to help pay for higher costs of edible oil, wheat and spices. Sanyo Foods Co., will raise prices from January. Nippon Meat Packers Inc. and Itoham Foods Inc. will increase prices of meat products this month and in October.
Prices of services are also gaining."

"Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said that prices will gradually resume rising even after the economy contracted in the second quarter and a U.S. mortgage rout heightened concern that global growth will slow. The bank should increase Japan's ``very low'' interest rates, he said."

From http://tinyurl.com/35z6t4

Japanese rates heading higher and USD rates heading lower will be very interesting if you are correctly positioned.

Bill,
Re: BMD
I was seriously assessing BMD today for a personal investment. The Q2 2007 report turned me off.

"LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES (from Q2 2007 Report)
Birch Mountain is a developing company with insufficient revenue as yet to meet its yearly operating and capital requirements. The Company has historically raised funds necessary to conduct its business primarily through issuance
of equity or debt. The Company has incurred operating losses since its inception in 1995, and as of June 30, 2007, has an accumulated deficit of $27 million (December 31, 2006 - $17,484,901). At present, the Company does not have sufficient working capital or cash flows to continue operations through 2007 without significant cash receipts from product sales from the quarry or financings through debt and/or equity. The Company is actively pursuing sales opportunities and is presently quoting to provide aggregates of varying types to several large construction projects scheduled for the last half of 2007 as well as discussing debt and equity strategies with its financial advisors. Project-specific financing for larger anticipated capital expenditures related to the Hammerstone Project may be available in the future. There can be no assurance that the efforts will be successful. To the extent the Company raises additional capital by issuing equity or convertible debt securities, ownership dilution to shareholders will result. These factors among others raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time."

Full Q2 2007 Report can be accessed at the link below:
http://www.birchmountain.com/financial.html

A day early, but made it over & up to the weekend home with the laptop after signing off earlier. WOW, 149 posts!

Case, I'd post an AG list from this laptop, but I see jasper (4:49 p.m.) has listed links that cover most if not all I follow. Those areas are a great place to be IMO, just avoid those downstream (example Nestle) that will have trouble passing some of the costs onto their customers.

jasper, great link thank you.
Re: SDA that was Si02 who posted the 40% gain comment and the $R benefit to the USD. I had already sold my SDA after a big move in a short time. I believe the long term trend continues and kudos to Si02 for hanging on. PDA is another Brazilian company with similar profile.

Leisa, glad you're in the green with SEED after today's move. These Chinese stocks can sure be volatile and I know SEED had some product pricing problems last quarter. I can't help but think a MON or SYT would find them attractive to form a partnership. They would gain some guanxi to help with their approach and entry into China. Just my 2 cents.

BMD:
My biggest disappointment this year.

I remember someone advsing me not to scalp on BMD, but hold long term till it reaches 8.

Some time in the near future,they will come out with a press release about a deal they signed with someone without disclosing the financial terms, but making it sound really good.
BMD will run up and I am waiting to unload it then.

Unless you have credible sources of information, investing in companies like this is highly risky. Even riskier than KRY!

Bill, (KRY)
Some of the posters at investor villege say that there are option clauses in the boards contract as well as buyout clauses. One of the individuals was at an annual/quarterly meeting where they were voted on. I don't know if that was at the most recent meeting or not. One of the posters was trying to find the minutes in regards to that issue. I had commented over there as to your concerns about Mr. fung's stock position. That was their response. Real or not.

Si02 good post and link. I find it interesting BOJ Gov. Fukui thinks Japan should raise rates, while “investors” see only a 9% chance of a rate rise. BOJ is difficult to predict and the PM has influenced the CB in the past. The credit crunch is believed to have postponed a BOJ hike in August.

If the carry trade unwinds, hedge funds will start to pay off those leveraged loans and we could see the baby thrown out with the bathwater. That means the crowded (popular) positions like some miners among others.

FWIW, I’m still retaining my FXY hedge at a cost basis under 81. It beats sitting in a money market, but bears watching nonetheless.

Bill,
If the permit were to come through with KRY I would assume that the stock would be halted from trading until a relevant price is established. I would assume that that price would be over $5 usd? What would a trader holding pre permit shares do under that circumstance? Should one hold out for the buyout? Become a longer term investor? Sell enough shares to cover costs and ride the rest out? What would you do under those circumstances?

Thx. Seamus. I followed your excellent lead on SFD a while ago, sold those for SDA, and followed you again on SFD last week, and sold those again today. Still holding DBA. I am trying to keep only profits in play, or lowering cost base at the max. Come mid October or so I'd not want to hold much long, if at all.

Besides the ag/foods, I try to hold a hedged position with IWM and XLF puts, and lots of miners long (main positions in GG and KGC calls). Whether this really acts as a hedge remains to be seen. I think any kind of risk protection is a must in this kind of market.

I purchased BMD yesterday at the break of the downtrend line, and I'll watch it closely from here. My take is that Birch Mountain was suffering from two items. Excessive small specs and residual fall-out from the Oil Sands drama...

I put a few illustrations in for those who aren't experienced in technical analysis.

http://members.cox.net/bock1-1/BirchMountain.jpg

Now it's sit and wait for me...I'll be waiting to see what happens at the 2.00 level and how it goes into mid-august resistance.

As far as KRY and GRZ goes...you'll find two years ago they had quite the opposite reaction, so I'd expect quite a bit of strength, meaning the trend is quite positive if it confirms.

Let me give you an example in the $HUI...

http://members.cox.net/bock1-1/HybridWPattern.jpg

http://members.cox.net/bock1-1/HybridWPatternB.jpg

two years to the day...

Best,

The CoinGuy

au courant:

I own some warrants.

The leverage varies, of course, depending on the terms. eg. the %age increase in my K.wt.b was approx. twice the increase in Kinross shares; my SLW.wt was up 7.45%, whereas Silver Wheaton shares were up 6.11%

And, I find them to be much, much, much cheaper than options. eg. my YRI.wt.a, expiring nov 20, 2008, closing today at $4.59 is exchangeable for .6 of a Yamana share, upon payment of $2.50. YRI closed at $6.96 today. My warrant pkg is $7.09 only(but I haven't laid out the $2.50)!!!

One caveat - liquidity. eg., I present today's volume on the warrants which I own, compared with respective shares, all trading on the TSE:
EDV.wt 200 EDV 81,344
K.wt.B 3000 K 4.167 million
SLW.wt 146,000 SLW 1.244 million
YRI.wt.a 61,900 YRI 8.950 million

Regards,

joey

"I remember someone advising me not to scalp on BMD, but hold long term till it reaches 8."

mea culpa.

"Unless you have credible sources of information, investing in companies like this is highly risky."

amazing how much more dependable trading on the basis of sentiment has been for me (this year) than trading on "information."

I don't think many of those citing waiting for appointments/treatments have tried to make an appoinment or get timely treatment in the US.

It took me two months to see a dermatologist (same for my wife who's had a melanoma). The dentist is much worse, more like six mos.

We also fund medical educations in the US with various government grants and low interest loans that require working in low income/rural/low population areas. I'd bet Canada has something similar.

As for "full service" insurance, they still write the contract and vet it with their legal advisors so they can deny treatment as needed to derive enough profit, while people die of course.
They don't do surgeries in the ER.

I still don't know why I need a greedy filter between my Dr. and myself.

People are NOT homes or CARS. The insurance model is fine for inanimate objects, but living stuff really requires a higher standard.

Just wait, you have seen nothing yet.

I'll cut to the chase, call an assisted living home and ask what the current cost are. They start at $4700 a mo. for shared apartments and $5700 a mo. for a private apartment. In 2007 for 2007 dollars. Think about what that will be like in 20 years when many of us will be needing such care. It's human nature to think it won't happen to you, and I thought that too, until my Mom started having problems at 71. I have no idea how we are going to afford her long term care.

Now imagine the baby boomers and what that pig is going to look like going through the python.
Makes GM look like a nice little picnic.

Some 'mania' pictures from the Cara100. Greater fool theory at work, echo bubble, or rational choice buying extended highs?

Best,

Ron (just click on my name for URL

Some 'mania' pictures from the Cara100. Greater fool theory at work, echo bubble, or rational choice buying extended highs?

Best,

Ron (just click on my name for URL