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September 26, 2007
Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., Sept. 26, 2007, 6:38 AM ET
Following a two-day national strike, GM and the UAW union said they reached a tentative agreement today at about 3am ET on a new national contract for about 74,000 US autoworkers, which includes a restructuring of GM's retiree worker health care obligations.
The key to the agreement was that about 70 pct of GM’s $51 billion unfunded retiree health care obligation was shifted to a UAW-run trust, called a Voluntary Employees Beneficiary Association, or VEBA. The union will now invest the money and take over health care responsibilities for about 340,000 GM hourly retirees and spouses.
This is a ground-breaking agreement. European equity markets strengthened at the open.
Yesterday, I enjoyed the Citi Capital Markets Symposium held in the afternoon at the Toronto King Eddy Hotel. The Citi staff, including Marilyn Clark, Canadian Country Head, Equities, and the Equity Sales Team of Brad Wynveen and Irene Kaulins (Directors) and their staff of Andrew Fecowycz (VP), Joyce Cerullo (AVP), Yoshi Nakamura (Analyst) and Sarah Greer (Associate), put on a fine event for Citi institutional clients. If I can’t get the team to take their road show to Bahamas next year, I suppose I’ll have to see them in Toronto.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 26, 2007 06:38:58 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
Discourse
Yearly Brazilian food inflation reached 9.3% in August, more than double the inflation rate. Tomatoes went up 61,5%, milk went up 33,7%, chicken and eggs up 26,1%, beans 25%. Higher salaries afforded people to buy more and better (still considered less essential) food, which seems to be a similar story as India and China. Article mentions that the rise in prices favors the food producers. (http://tinyurl.com/323vvr - in portuguese).
Posted by: SiO2
at
September 26, 2007 8:01 AM [link]
Since late spring until the present milk has increased 17% in my home town located in the deep south USA. Nothing new on the inflation score here either.
Posted by: C.Note
at
September 26, 2007 8:19 AM [link]
Bill,
I have posted a chart depicting Durable Goods Orders(DGO) vs Employment.
The directional relationship is good.
You can see clearly the deceleration in Employment. DGO (and the economy) will probably follow.
Posted by: Will Rahal
at
September 26, 2007 8:56 AM [link]
Bill, did Louise Yamada present her Tech Analysis re Gold, Metals, Commodities outlook? Can you share some info?
Posted by: ivonka
at
September 26, 2007 9:22 AM [link]
EBS just won a nice anthrax vaccine contract and is up >25% premarket.
Back around August 17, posted the following: “Usually have some sort of Homeland Security related position in one of the accounts, so picked up pharmaceutical EBS in the IRA.”
It's nice when things work out;)
Posted by: Seamus
at
September 26, 2007 9:28 AM [link]
re the gold spike/retest of market highs-
as the market begins to pull in the fence-sitters, don't lose sight of bill's last dance scenario...nothing wrong with sitting out the last dance...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
September 26, 2007 9:57 AM [link]
I sold GSS 4.145
I didn't make much, but it didn't do much.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
September 26, 2007 10:01 AM [link]
WSJ online
Quotes of the Day
"Some senior heads of companies have been asking me if this is all true," Ha Jiming, chief economist of China's largest investment bank, tells the Financial Times, about a new Chinese best-seller called "Currency Wars" that blames the Battle of Waterloo, the deaths of six U.S. presidents, the rise of Adolf Hitler, the deflation of the Japanese bubble economy, the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and even environmental destruction in the developing world on alleged control of global currency issuance by the Rothschild banking dynasty.
The book's publisher, a unit of the state-owned Citic group, said it had sold nearly 200,000 copies and that an estimated 400,000 extra pirated copies are in circulation as well. Author Song Hongbing says he never imagined the book -- which also claims the U.S. Federal Reserve is a puppet of private banks ultimately controlled by the Rothschilds -- would be so hot: "People in China are nervous about what's going on in financial markets but they don't know how to handle the real dangers. This book gives them some ideas."
Posted by: Seamus
at
September 26, 2007 10:04 AM [link]
2nd ave.
You seem confident of that .xau will sell off sharply. I'm looking closely at .gdm. In the process of making a decision I lean toward the guideline of "don't over anticipate, better to react." Sort of, let it keep working till it doesn't. If .gdm can hold 1196 or 9dma then I think the uptrend continues. And, it's testing that area, now. Emotionally, it's less stressful to sell into strength. If I had my old Keith Jarett vinyls, might be good music therapy. On some of his work he used melodic repetition(lay terms) which really worked for me.
Posted by: jasper
at
September 26, 2007 10:34 AM [link]
My bet? Song Hongbing translated to english/ Hawaiian is Kaimu!
Posted by: Craig
at
September 26, 2007 10:35 AM [link]
If "cash is King" as Bill so often states, Where is the best place to plant it?
I am considering offshore in certificate of deposits in an Antiguan bank. Thoughts?
S1
Posted by: Soldier1
at
September 26, 2007 10:52 AM [link]
"as the market begins to pull in the fence-sitters, don't lose sight of bill's last dance scenario...nothing wrong with sitting out the last dance..."
well said
Posted by: jasper
at
September 26, 2007 10:57 AM [link]
Re: Chinese conspiracy theorist
I find it fascinating (and discouraging) how antisemitic prejudices cross over cultures in times of crisis and/or financial insecurity.
JML
Posted by: Jumble
at
September 26, 2007 11:00 AM [link]
GSS is now at $3.98
It made either a head and shoulders on the hourly or maybe a flag-type consolidation or both.
Either way it aint good. i wouldn't buy 'till the 370's now.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
September 26, 2007 11:06 AM [link]
ETFC looks ready for a short covering rally. Bought some for a trade.
Posted by: JogyP
at
September 26, 2007 11:10 AM [link]
"I find it fascinating (and discouraging) how antisemitic prejudices cross over cultures in times of crisis and/or financial insecurity."
Maybe I'm slow on the uptake, but where did antisemitism come into play here?
Posted by: Craig
at
September 26, 2007 11:20 AM [link]
Testing a way to trade using only Cara 100 stocks.
This method incorporates one of my favorite sayings of "The Trend is your friend"
1. The 22 week and 22 day Moving average SLOPE must be rising.
2. Wait for a close below the 13 day moving average and place the stock on the watch list.
3. Buy when the stock looks like it will close above the past 3 day high.
4. Selling rules uses Charles LeBeau's method using Average True Range (20)...Take the highest close less 3 times the ATR and subtract from the highest close = your stop. As the stock goes up, you will tighten the stop.
For instance, on the day the stock is purchased, you would add 4 x the ATR to the price. That is target #1, when price reaches target, tighten stop to highest close less 2.5 times ATR. When reaches 6 x ATR added to your purchase price, tighten stop to highest close less 2 x the ATR.
5. I have a portfolio setup at www.bullpoo.com.
Up around 6% since I started using this in mid August. Portfolio name is holdenll ( 2 L's not ones).
I look at the on balance volume slope to see if it is moving upward as well but it is not required.
I had already done some trades at this site and did not start using this method until August 15th or so.
PTR up 23%, GRMN up 21%, CHL up 18%, CSCO up 9%, PG up 7%
CONSTRUCTIVE criticism is welcome.
Posted by: holdenll
at
September 26, 2007 11:34 AM [link]
Craig,
"Ha Jiming ... blames .... on alleged control of global currency issuance by the Rothschild banking dynasty. Rothschilds are of German Jewish descent.
Posted by: Fred
at
September 26, 2007 11:38 AM [link]
Today's influence on precious metals:
Reuters reports Saudi Arabia's Central Bank Governor Hamad Saud al-Sayyari said on Wednesday the world's largest oil exporter would not change its foreign exchange policy because the U.S.-dollar peg offered flexibility.
This should add some strength to the oversold dollar and thus mildly pressure PMs. Last week the Telegraph (UK) mentioned the Saudi Central Bank had not lowered interest rates after the Fed cut. It was a possible signal of Saudi Arabia breaking their peg to the USD and added to the dollar weakness. With today's Saudi Central Bank meeting comments, dollar finding some strength.
Posted by: Seamus
at
September 26, 2007 11:39 AM [link]
Craig, Rothschilds were Jewish, and the idea that a Jewish cabal of bankers control the global financial markets has been a very longstanding fantasy/tool of rightwing/fascist groups for hundreds of years. It would certainly be a bummer for Chinese punters to blame future market turbulence (stock market bubble deflation?) on tired prejudices imported from western culture.
Posted by: schnauser
at
September 26, 2007 11:40 AM [link]
The scientific method! What's your win/loss percentage? How many times have you tried this? What are the biggest problems with it you've discovered?
Posted by: shark_attack
at
September 26, 2007 11:41 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
If you have any doubts as to how far the US government would go during a financial crisis then look no further that 1933 and FDR, when gold and silver were confiscated. For the US government or any World government to make such an announcement today would spell the end of fiat. It would be an admission that fiat has no value and the gold/silver money was superior. Once the fiat system collapses though that would be a completely different story. Of course if the US government wanted to confiscate gold and silver today they need not go any further than the ETFs! Back in 1933 this confiscation was the equivalent to the current HB&B bailout now happening. Of course the US government always punishes those that are prudent, wise and "responsible" in financial matters, even in 1933!
I mean look at the words FDR uses ... "We The People" are not citizens but "subjects". Isn't that a word the King Of England would use?
Then look at the words he uses to describe "gold and silver hoarders" ... "grave threat to peace,equal justice,and the well being of the United States ..." As if possessing gold and silver were unpatriotic. I guess FDR never read the US Constitution and the section about "money'!
Then FDR goes on to say that he is protecting the interests of "our people" ... WHAT? You mean by confiscating the "people's possessions"! I could get better protection than that from the Mafia, Tony only wants a cut! Wow ... with a great government like that who needs enemies? Sieg Heil Mein FDR! At the end Mein FDR goes on to say that your safe deposit box can only be accessed in the presence of the Gestapo ... I mean the IRS! Wow ... What "free markets" we had back then!
Now what lengths would the current corrupt US government go to in an emergency like 1929-1933? What are they going to do? Confiscate Exxon and Google stock?
Nice to know that we live in the only country in the World to confiscate gold and silver from its "subjects"! Was that what our Founding Fathers fought so hard for? Those "Executive Orders" will be the death of us all!
THE ORIGINAL FDR ANNOUNCEMENT IN 1933 ...
March 9 1933--Executive Order Of The President Of The United States--
"By virtue of the authority vested in me by---The Act of March 9 1933--In which Congress declared a serious emergency exists,I as President do declare that the national emergency still exists;that the continued private hoarding of gold and silver by subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to peace,equal justice,and the well being of the United States;and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect the interests of our people--
All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed,pending action in the due course of law.All sales or purchases of such gold and silver within the borders of the United States and its territories and all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border are hereby prohibited--
Your possession of these proscribed metals and/or your maintanence of a safe deposit box to store them is known by the government from bank and insurance records.Therefore be advised that your vault box must remain sealed,and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the "Internal Revenue Service".END
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Seamus ... It was due to the Rothschild private communications system that during the Napoleanic Wars at the Battle Of Waterloo the Rothschilds found out about the British victory over a day ahead of the King Of England and were able to offer favored financing to the British. Then the Rothschild's went into France after the war like carpetbaggers and made a fortune off rebuilding France.
As the Rothschild's founder said over 200 years ago.
“Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws."
- Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
Posted by: kaimu
at
September 26, 2007 11:42 AM [link]
Kaimu,
Right on, flower man! A class in constitutional law is quite elucidating, vis a vis the fact that THE CONSTITUTION HAS BEEN AMENDED AND JUDICIALLY INTERPRETED OUT OF EXISTENCE.
Unwarranted search and seizure is now the LAW OF THE LAND!!!!
Posted by: shark_attack
at
September 26, 2007 11:48 AM [link]
I understand their history and origins. The banks have a very long history and many dealings over that time. Some good and I'm sure some not so good, or some with intended consequences and some with unintended consequences, whatever they may be. Their religion and culture may raise the ire of tin foil hat wearing morons, but the fact that the five historic branches of the Rothschilds bank wielded great power (floating entire countries in time of crisis comes to mind) and still do shouldn't be a big surprise.
I think the line about controlling currency attributed to a Rothschild is a basic truism, it doesn't have to be about religion, culture, predjudice or antisemetism anymore than discussions on Iraq are about Texans.
I know someone is "in" with the banks, but I know it isn't the people or me. I don't think it's "jews" although some of the people "in" might be Jewish. Some might be Texan Methodists too.
That's alright, we are all (not US but the collective WE) about to blame CHINA for our idiocy. Welcome to primates 101.
Posted by: Craig
at
September 26, 2007 11:56 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
From 1927 to 1933 ... six years ... Notice all the "experts" and their expert advice! Any of that sound familiar?
If you want to see a movie with references to the stock market bubble prior to 1929 then watch the movie "Some Like It Hot", with Jack lemmon and Marilyn Monroe. The movie takes place in 1928 and there is a part where Marilyn gets a stock tip and calls her broker to buy stock in a Venezuelan oil company! HA!!
READ ON:
1927--"We will not have any more crashes in our time"---John Maynard Keynes
Jan.12 1928--"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fools paradise,and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future"--
E.Simmons--president New York Stock Exchange
Dec.4 1928--"No congress of the U.S. ever assembled,on surveying the state of the Union,has met with a more pleasing prospect then that which appears at the present time.
In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment--and the highest record of years of prosperity.In the foreign field there is peace,the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding"--Pres.Calvin Coolidge-
Sept.5 1929--"There may be a recession in stock prices,but not anything in the nature of a crash"---Irving Fisher PHD. Professor of economics-Yale University
Oct.24 1929--"This crash is not going to have much effect on business"--Aurther Reynolds-Chairman Continental Illinois Bank
Oct.25 1929--(Black Friday) "There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday--I have no fear of another comparable decline"--A.W. Loasby--Pres. of the equitable Trust Co.
Nov.1929--"The end of the decline of the stock market will not be long,only a few more days at the most"--Irving Fisher
Dec.1929--"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism--I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring,and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress"--
Andrew W Mellon--U.S.Secretary of the Treasury
May 1930--"While the crash only took place six months ago,I am convinced we have now passed through the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover.There has been no significant bank or industrial failure.That danger too is safely behind us"--President Herbert Hoover
March 9 1933--Executive Order Of The President Of The United States--
"By virtue of the authority vested in me by---The Act of March 9 1933--In which Congress declared a serious emergency exists,I as President do declare that the national emergency still exists;that the continued private hoarding of gold and silver by subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to peace,equal justice,and the well being of the United States;and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect the interests of our people-- END
Posted by: kaimu
at
September 26, 2007 12:00 PM [link]
Craig -
Via Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschilds)
"The acclaimed poet Ezra Pound, in his World War II radio broadcasts from Italy, openly named the Rothschilds as the masters of a clique of banking houses that caused the World Wars in order to profit off of them and get countries in debt to the lending central banks, which Pound claimed the Rothschild interests owned and exercised control of a nation's policy by having the power to issue the nation's money. After World War II, he was tried for treason, but was declared mentally unfit to stand trial and was instead imprisoned in a federal mental hospital for thirteen years. As late as 1935, however, Pound entertained the theory that "organized anti-Semitism might be the hidden war of Swiss Protestant dynasties against the Rothschilds, whom they had never forgiven for breaking into their banking monopoly."[7]"
[7] Pearlman, Daniel. "The Anti-Semitism of Ezra Pound". Contemporary Literature 22: 104-115.
From FT.com (http://tinyurl.com/2834jq)
"Mr Song is defensive about his focus on the Rothschilds and what the book depicts as their Jewish clannishness.
“The Chinese people think that the Jews are smart and rich, so we should learn from them,” he says. “Even me, I think they are really smart, maybe the smartest people on earth.”
Jon Benjamin, chief executive of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, is not impressed. “The Chinese have the highest regard for what they see as Jewish intellectual and commercial acumen, with little or no concurrent culture of antisemitism. This claim, however, plays to the most discredited and outmoded canards surrounding Jews and their influence. That it should gain currency in the world’s most important emerging economy is a great concern.”
JML
Posted by: Jumble
at
September 26, 2007 12:10 PM [link]
jasper- i got into music in the keith jarrett/chuck mangione/gato barbieri era, so i know jarrett's stuff well...partial to repetitive melodic phrasing myself > into exploring every nuance...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
September 26, 2007 12:13 PM [link]
I think it's overraction.
Mr. Song's feelings are his own and cannot be described as anything by anyone, unless they have an axe to grind, lens to view through.
It is only because the question is phrased through antisemetism that Mr. Song is forced to answer it. Then some "journalist" assigns emotion to it.
As noted, the Chinese clearly have no framework with which to know antisemetism. Therefore such views or concerns for such views eminate from outside Mr. Song. He is meerly citing the influence of bankers of which the Rothschilds are prominent and influential, currently and historically, as Kaimu notes.
There are more tin foil hat wearers than Pound to cite. I am not saying these folks haven't been the victims of antisemetism. I'm saying this particular example is over reaction to what is clearly lots of influence and power in international banking, and all things related, over a lot of time and history.
Posted by: Craig
at
September 26, 2007 12:27 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Barrick's hedge book has 9.5 mln oz gold at $325/oz
Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:29pm BST
DENVER, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research)(ABX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday said that its hedge book that supports project financing has about $9.5 million at an average price of $325 an ounce, and that it has completely closed out of its operating hedge contracts.
"We will be delivering those contracts in the future when the ounces from the new projects come onstream, and that will be in the next 10 to 15 years, starting about five years from now," Barrick Chief Executive Gregory Wilkins said during his presentation at the Denver Gold Forum. END
Is it 9.5 mil ounces or is it $9.5milUSD total? What is this 15 year delivery option about? Remember I posted about the special contracts with JP Morgan called "spot deferred sales contract"? Those unique contracts only offered to Barrick Gold, were "evergreen", meaning they could be rolled over every 15 years! In other words Barrick never has to deliver ... What happens if Barrick never delivers because those "new projects" never come onstream? Barrick is having a lot of trouble with new projects.
If you type Barrick Gold into Wikipedia you will see all kinds of litigation and there is even a website dedicated exclusively to "Protesting Barrick" ! How many mining companies in the World can claim that honor? I mean you really have to piss off a lot of people worldwide to have such a "negative following"! If you go to their site you will see photos of protestors protesting a Merrill Lynch conference where Barrick management was presenting in Toronto. That's got to be embarrassing!
Here is a link to their site: http://protestbarrick.net/
As an example here is one small issue reported by the Protest Barrick website ...
Glaring Omissions
The first place to look for Barrick's reporting on issues important to shareholders would be their 2006 annual report, seemingly complete with a section listing "Litigations and Claims." However, Barrick failed to even mention a costly lawsuit with landowner Rodolfo Villar, a stumbling block that could prove costly (around the tune of $300 million) and one which will possibly delay the Pascua Lama project, a proposed mine on the border of Chile and Argentina, according to the Valaparaiso Times.
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Also looks like Oct gold futures contracts will expire in the money. How many of those contracts will demand delivery? My guess is the COMEX reps are working overtime to discourage any such thoughts ...
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The Washington Agreement is set to end on September 28th. I am sure it will be renewed although gold supplies of the Europeans have drastically dwindled. Unless they get some new blood the USA will have to pick up the slack. I can easily imagine George Bush announcing to the Wsahington DC press that the USA will sell gold in order to pay debts so that Americans will not have to pay additional taxes and Social Security and Medicare can be spared. "My fellow Americans ... it is the only patriotic thing to do!" Joe Blow Mr. Average will jump for joy ... "YEAH sell the gold ... DAMN ... I don't wanna pay no more taxes than I gotta!"
Posted by: kaimu
at
September 26, 2007 12:42 PM [link]
Kaimu,
1) Do you think Perth Mint holdings would be secure in the event of another 1933?
2) The Barrick slagging has been going on for quite some time. Think someone might have a vested interest there, maybe? Like an agreement with Mr Villar? Or a short position that we can't see for some reason?
Posted by: cyderman
at
September 26, 2007 12:57 PM [link]
With Ford and General Motors up about +4.5 pct each and Newmont down over -6 pct, the character of today's session can be defined as "hope".
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 1:05 PM [link]
Will Rahal, that's a neat chart (8:56am) re: year-over-year percent change in US Durable Goods Orders vs. the YOY pct change in Employment. Thanks.
I suppose the more that DGO drops and House Prices/Sales decline, there will be more talk of recession/depression.
With the global economy expanding on its own, I believe there can be recession in the US, as well as UK/Western Europe/Japan without worsening into a depression. There is nothing of an econ nature I can see today that remotely suggests a forthcoming depression, yet fear mongerers love to push that scenario.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 1:14 PM [link]
Seamus, re the Chinese authored "Currency Wars", that's one man's view. The situation would be no different than if the book was authored by an American. There will always be somebody to refute it -- even in China -- unless of course the book was authored by People's Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan.
Having said that, I have been highly opinionated in this blog about "currency wars", their impact on international business, on securities trading (where price gains on securities can be more than lost via currencies), and on precious metals prices. I have said that unless the G-20 central bankers and finance ministers decide on a new General Agreement on Currencies, trading in the capital and futures markets will be too volatile to effectively price assets. In other words, unless the major currencies of the world must trade within a narrow band, as agreed by the econ powers of the world, the market will become little more than a casino. That's a bad thing.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 1:25 PM [link]
Re-release of the movie WALL STREET
All the guys on FAST MONEY were GA GA over Oliver Stone....
One more contrarian indicator to SELL SELL SELL
De-Industrialization and the 'Nordstrom's -- Wal-Mart' Economy
By Frank Barbera, CMT
Posted by: HugoB
at
September 26, 2007 1:36 PM [link]
GSS $3.93
Posted by: shark_attack
at
September 26, 2007 2:16 PM [link]
( I didn't buy it, just reporting it's current price)
Posted by: shark_attack
at
September 26, 2007 2:17 PM [link]
Seems like not a few of the gold stocks which usually do well, are getting CRUNCHED today !
Posted by: Jock
at
September 26, 2007 2:49 PM [link]
ivonka, you asked about a presentaion yesterday by Louise Yamada (Yamada Technical Research Advisors) at the Citigroup Capital Markets Symposium. Former Head of Technical Research at Smith Barney (Citi), Louise was ranked #1 on Wall Street for the years 2001, -2, -3, and -4. Obviously she knows her stuff, and she is an entertaining speaker.
She handed out an 84-page summary/charts booklet to lead us through her discussion, which basically suggested that the markets right now are in wait-and-see mode. The recent FOMC cut at -50bp is not unprecedented, and while there is always a subsequent pop to the equity and bond market, it may not continue, and more cuts may be needed to sustain a rally. This Bull market is long in the tooth.
She argued that the cyclical Bear could set in even if the Emerging Economies were fundamentally creating a structural (long-term) Bull, and that the Financials would now be the key. She pointed to the July-August lows of the XLF and said if that low is taken out, a serious Bear would soon follow.
She pointed out that after the market crashed in 1929, it was not the first downwave (sell-off from 400 to 180) that destroyed portfolios; it was the second one (200 to 40). I have been saying the same here. I believe the cyclical Bear started in July with the XLF and XLY sell-off, but there were too many other bullish sectors in the market, at the time, to offset the selling. The next round of selling will be much broader, and deeper.
Interestingly, Louise opined that with all the liquidity pumping, inflation was bound to rise, but govt figures were so biased and improperly measured and, as a result, so misleadingly low that she would never recommend buying TIPS.
For the long-term, she was bullish on commodities, oil (93-100-104), gold (750-830-900). I cannot disagree with her gold call, but I feel she was too harsh in her projection for a falling USD and hence her too-optimistic projection for oil.
I think a rapidly slowing economy in the US, Canada, UK and Western Europe is going to hold down the price for oil. The price for gold is different. The "currency war" is a lowering of ALL currencies, which has no effect on consumables like oil, but has a meaningful effect on the price of collectibles, and commodities like precious metals, which are money.
In fact, as interest rates drop, the cost of carrying gold (which pays no economic return) also drops, making it easier to switch from fiat money to hard (gold and silver) money, and traders will do that switch.
Moreover, I think the world has not yet turned onto gold because they don't yet see a currency war, but it's coming. I think gold will be the next bubble. I also think gold will trade counter-cyclically and also in sync at times with the USD. That's because as the USD value drops, gold rises, but then the Euro and Yen value drops as these central banks "wage war". That only rallies the USD and drops the price of gold so many times before traders figure out the skinny, which is that ALL currencies are getting weaker, and that will cause the rush to gold.
After each pull-back in gold and silver, I advise buying more because I think the chart will show the classic Bull pattern of higher lows and higher highs -- even if and when the $USD reaches a cycle bottom.
I suppose all central banks could continue to sell off their gold holdings, but the question then is why? If the end result is inevitable why throw away good assets today that will be much more valuable tomorrow?
A couple other points Louise Yamada raised: (i) central banks could affect markets in the 1990's by raising rates because corporations needing cash (during those years) got squeezed out, but today these corporations for the most part are cash-rich, so monetary policy is not likely to be as effective, and (ii) the capial market world is now no longer dominated by the New York Stock Exchange: in just three years, the volume of trades in US-listed stocks done by NYSE has fallen from 80 pct to 50 pct. Today, there are things called Dark Liquidity Pools (including frm Citi) taking on most of the trading. I have even written about this in recent months, asking if HB&B has one market price and the NYSE a different one. In fact, Louise pointed out a recent lawsuit over this matter where a large "liquidity provider" is suing to get the best price.
Pretty soon, with the facilities of electronic technology, the world will be a web of exchanges. Then where will we be? If HB&B can offer CDO's with no real idea of the value of the collateral value, as has been proven in recent months, how will the public know if the "market" price of say a S&P 500 stock is really the market price?
This dark liquidity issue is a serious matter at a time that capital markets are failing as pricing mechanisms due to the volatility extremes in forex trading.
Overall, I think Louise Yamada (appropriately) stressed safety in the likes of GE, KO and PG, which I have been recommending here as well. She does not like WMT at all, however ("Why would anybody buy this stock?" she asked). But then she called it a Consumer Discretionary stock, and long-time members of the Cara Community know that I put Wal-Mart into the Consumer Staples category.
Re WMT, I think consumers go to Wal-Mart because they have to. They cannot afford high-priced retailers. I think they also go to buy food now, which is a staple. So, I disagree with Louise on that one. In fact, this summer I did a blog that pointed out how all the major groups and sub-groups of the Consumer Discretionary stocks were breaking down in July, but I have never hopped off the (Cara 100) prospects for Wal-Mart. The year over year over year over year (for what 20 years?) growth in every important metric (revenues, earnings, cash flow and dividends) has increased. The margins are good and even growing. The company is well positioned in the emerging world. No, I will not have a thing bad to say about Wal-Mart, even if the stock goes through its cyclical ups and downs, which btw I need to make a decent total return on WMT.
Louise also likes ExxonMobil, and so do I (it's also a Cara 100). But she likes the XOM stock too at this point and I think the run is over for a while.
I think Exxon's top-line revenue growth is slowing or going to slow due to prices of crude oil and unit volume production that will likely both pull back in a major recession, and in an inflationary environment, costs are rising relentlessly. Moreover, with Big Oil, there will always be alternatives. That is one reason why Louise pointed out that electricity sources (based other than on oil) would always be in increasing demand. The world is always growing. She said that when she was born, the global population was only 3 billion, and now it's 6.5 billion. (Jeez, I had a typo -- 3 million, and I thought, no, Louise isn't that old -- she's much younger than me!)
That's why I like nuclear and hydrogen powered fuel cell technology, and the long-term prospects of (Cara 100) companies like GE, ABB, EXC and CCJ, that are in that business.
Finally, about US Bonds, Louise thinks (like many) that the market is in the process of a 26-year reversal, starting in 2002. Taking the 10-year US Treasury, she believes that there will be a transitional trading range with yields of 3.5-5.5 pct range (using her printed material, although she opined to us that the rate could drop to 3.75 pct as the FOMC keeps knocking the Fed Rate down and the economy retracts).
I agree with (i) the long-term trend reversal in bonds (after a disinflationary era from 1981 to 2001), and (ii) the volatility thesis. But, I think that foreigners will increasingly pull their USD-denominated holdings and seek total returns in other markets, which will put a floor to rates, and then inflation will push them up sooner than later. So, trading bonds will be a challenge in the next year, as I see it. I'd rather be holding precious metals.
I just want to say that there is a lot of nonsense being spouted today, but Louise Yamada deserves her top-flight industry ratings. Her clients and associates have good reason to listen to her.
I may have disagreed on a couple points here and there -- that's what makes a market -- but really she gave a very good presentation. The Citi team are to be applauded for having her at the podium.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 3:02 PM [link]
ETFC - Oct 12 Calls @ .85; EMA(25)/SDMA(50) crossover and STO(14,3) crossover on 15-minute chart, plus possibility of short covering as JogyP noted above (11.10 a.m.)
Posted by: OldGoat
at
September 26, 2007 3:17 PM [link]
RE:Barrick
Jim Sinclair posted the following on his site recently "As I have indicated to you previously, it is my opinion that Barrick will be the prime consolidator of the gold producing industry due to the intentions and strength of their lenders and other side of their hedges, one and the same"
Could someone please explain to me what the significance of Barrick's lenders being the other side of their hedges is?
THanks,
Brendan
Posted by: brendan
at
September 26, 2007 3:27 PM [link]
Learn something new every day in the Ag sector. There seems to be a premium ($0.60 per bushel) on low linolenic soybean oil production. This trait has a reduced presence of trans fats in the oil and thus is categorized “heart healthy” soybean oil.
(My spouse prefers olive oil and/or canola oil as there is no trans fat).
Posted by: Seamus
at
September 26, 2007 3:38 PM [link]
Here is Deepak Lalwani's weekly report on India:
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 3:46 PM [link]
As BILL (or Louise Yamada) states above
"THE FINANCIALS ARE THE KEY"
The only way to keep them moving up now is by saying WARREN BUFFET wants a stake...What a joke...BSC
FYI
Here's a 5 year chart I prepared today showing the change in value of foreign currencies,gold and silver vs the US Dollar.
....as the empire crumbles.
9/26/02 9/26/07 % change
EUR 1.02 1.409 +38.13
GBP 1.52O 2.0153 +32.58
CHF 0.6612 0.8543 +29.2
NOK 0.1312 0.1812 +38.32
SEK 0.1058 0.1538 +45.36
JPY 0.00836 0.00872 + 4.3
SGD 0.5606 0.6665 +18.89
BRL 0.3274 0.536 +63.71
AUD 0.54 0.8666 +60.48
NZD 0.4677 0.7405 +58.32
CAD 0.6632 0.9973 +50.37
SILVER 4.48 13.49 +301.11
GOLD 307.3 731.71 +238.1
data/www.oanda.com
Posted by: astral25
at
September 26, 2007 3:49 PM [link]
Didn't someone here recently switch to Interactive Brokers? If so, or if there's someone else here already using them, how do you like the service? I had a major issue with ET today, and am looking for someplace else to place trades. Also, does IB have a reliable quote feed? Thanks.
Posted by: writersblock
at
September 26, 2007 3:54 PM [link]
Buffet 'wanted' a stake in Hovnanian before it crashed too. Those that engineered that story said 'sold to you, sucker'.
Posted by: moab
at
September 26, 2007 4:03 PM [link]
Another Buffett rumor sends stocks higher. This time, he's allegedly buying into Bear Stearns.
Posted by: number2son
at
September 26, 2007 4:06 PM [link]
writersblock,
I switched to IB recently and so far I am happy with the experience. I use their Trader Workstation(TWS), once you get used to it you can do everything from TWS. IB also reported that there were issues with AMEX trading this morning.
IB real time feeds are OK, though sometimes I see them a bit slow compared to TDW's feeds. (I see higher volumes on TDWs real time quotes)
The best part is the commission - For most of my trades it's $1.
Posted by: JogyP
at
September 26, 2007 4:14 PM [link]
A bad day in the market ... too tepid. It felt as if we were at the mercy of wily market makers. Big whipsaw moves in the stocks I'm watching on light volume.
I'm more in cash now than I have been all year.
Posted by: number2son
at
September 26, 2007 4:16 PM [link]
Bill,
A great read on the big picture from Louise Yamanda's presentation. I find it interesting that she previously worked at citi group. I get weekly reports from Tobias M Levkovich who is the chief analyst for citi. While I find his charts and reasoning interesting, his guidance doesn't have great face validity, IMHO. I quit reading them but after your post I opened up the .pdf for this week. His current opinions are the opposite of Yamanda. He likes financials and consumer discretionary and believes energy and metals over rated. He does not believe inflation is a threat. In all fairness, he has hard data to back up his arguments. It's sell side and what makes a horse race. Call me naive but I do not actually think Tobias is being deceptive, though the culture of citi will have an impact. (If interested glad to send you the .pdf)
Posted by: jasper
at
September 26, 2007 4:24 PM [link]
number2son,
Every sector except the Gold's were flat to higher today with the majority being higher. How is this a bad day in the markets?
Posted by: brendan
at
September 26, 2007 4:36 PM [link]
JogyP, thanks. That sounds good. I wonder why the volumes aren't the same as on TDW, though, since it seems to me that volume is such an important part of making trading decisions.
Posted by: writersblock
at
September 26, 2007 4:41 PM [link]
Sallie Mae deal in jeopardy. BSC rumor appears about the same time as this news...
Posted by: moab
at
September 26, 2007 4:44 PM [link]
I am starting to read more and more stuff that talks about the risk of deflation rather than inflation. Minyanville has a nice article in "Five Things" today that is a worthy read. I believe that one of the great arguments currently being waged is that between the inflationists and deflationists. Very tough to dissect which one if either is going to win out.
Posted by: geckojb
at
September 26, 2007 4:49 PM [link]
RE:Barrick
The other side of the hedges are always the lenders, no? Isn't this the case with hedging contracts industry wide?
Jim Sinclair posted the following on his site recently "As I have indicated to you previously, it is my opinion that Barrick will be the prime consolidator of the gold producing industry due to the intentions and strength of their lenders and other side of their hedges, one and the same"
Posted by: brendan
at
September 26, 2007 4:56 PM [link]
brendan ... no real conviction in my view.
Posted by: number2son
at
September 26, 2007 5:32 PM [link]
Re: Louise Yamanda's anecdote: Not sure why she thinks the LCD TVs in airplanes would be a radiation hazard. They emit practically zero radiation. I thought that was common knowledge (except for class-action lawyers, of course.)
Posted by: lcs
at
September 26, 2007 5:50 PM [link]
GSS closed $3.86
And it aint done going down yet!
Posted by: shark_attack
at
September 26, 2007 5:52 PM [link]
lcs, you are undoubtedly right. I didn't give it much thought, but most of us now use only LCD's for close proximity monitors, and I guess "zero" radiation is one of the benefits.
On second thought, I'll just delete that reference as it was unnecessary in any event.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 5:59 PM [link]
shark_attack,
How can you so conclusively say that GSS is not done going down? If the general market and Gold are strong tomorrow couldn't GSS just as easily go up?
Posted by: brendan
at
September 26, 2007 6:13 PM [link]
brendan
Have to agree with the shark here (though I haven't traded GSS for a while), seems to have a gap to fill, I wouldn't be a buyer until I saw it bounce of one of its MAs.
It also went straight south today with down volume at the close. Not a good sign.
I lightned up on some other PMs today, they appear to want to correct. Still a believer but would like to re-enter lower.
Have to respect the recent surge in commercial short interest in COT.
I expect an engineered sell off short term in this group followed by renewed interest.
So much depends on news and "other markets" don't see any organic strength at the moment.
Just trying to swing trade a little.
Will probably regret it!!
Posted by: Rigdon
at
September 26, 2007 6:32 PM [link]
Regarding BMD (birch mountain) which is discussed here occasionally...
Was in a meeting today with a bunch of infrastructure guys in Alberta, and the issue of aggregate (rock) supply came up. Apparently quality gravel pits are becoming harder to find anywhere near the big cities, and prices have over doubled in the last 2 years with no sign of respite.
With the economic boom around here, the demand picture doesn't look like it's going to change any time soon. And if the govt does change royalty structure, I imagine reduced demand from oil projects could be replaced by infrastructure projects (for which the budget has already been boosted by 23/35/47+ % over next three years).
Given that, I might keep a more serious eye on BMD...
Posted by: proudPapa
at
September 26, 2007 6:37 PM [link]
I have been wondering today, who among this community thinks they are in the top decile (top 10 pct) of all traders (including pro traders) in terms of their annual portfolio performance? Maybe it would be interesting to have these people write to me privately (bcara @billcara.com)and have me put up their best picks (and time horizon) in a Cara Community Portfolio.
In the next few months, I anticipate being registered in Bahamas as a securities trading advisor, and I will be taking on private clients. But, given that my blog is not intended to openly sell securities, and I know readers will be asking, I think the community ought to see specific recommendations, not from me, but from some people among you. I can keep track of the model portfolio, and make comments. That takes me off the hook.
What do you think?
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 7:06 PM [link]
proudPapa,
The aggregate (rock) supply issue is a big one in Bahamas. Palm trees are being ripped out to get at the underlying rock. I understand that in Jamaica this practice is illegal.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 7:10 PM [link]
Regarding the issue I had with Etrade that I mentioned earlier today: As I said, I had a problem with the reliability of the ET Pro software - even though it appeared to be functioning properly, and updating in real time, it wouldn't allow me to cancel some trades I had placed, no matter what I tried. I called ET financial, and was told there was no problem with the software. I insisted there was, since I could still see it on my screen and could and did prove it via screen grab I sent them through email. They continued to assert this was the first they had heard of it, and it must be only my problem. I was put through to tech support who advised me that there was, indeed, a problem with ET Pro software, both Windows and Mac versions, and that there is a patch coming out on or about October 3rd, and that the company knows about it. I was transferred back to the financial side, where they continued to deny any problems with the software, and implied tech support had made that up to "get me off the phone." However, later, another tech support person confirmed what the first tech person had told me, that is, the patched update will be out next week. Just thought anyone who is still using them might like to look into this, since there is no warning about the problem, whatsoever that I can see, on the website.
Posted by: writersblock
at
September 26, 2007 7:33 PM [link]
2nd ave
I was trying to recall the company that you mentioned had a connection with irrigation.
Thanks.
Posted by: jasper
at
September 26, 2007 7:47 PM [link]
Gold's in a vulnerable position at the moment as you can see. It doesn't look like it wants to hold this trendline. If it doesn't- look at below.
Posted by: brendan
at
September 26, 2007 8:21 PM [link]
Bill, I think a community portfolio would be a great idea. What do you think about also having an area where your readers could post what trading tools, software, brokers, etc, we find useful, good, or bad, and why?
Posted by: writersblock
at
September 26, 2007 8:27 PM [link]
I have been keeping an eye at the insider purchases at AZM.V. The officers have been filing open market purchases all month.
http://canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=azm
Posted by: BillySundance
at
September 26, 2007 8:28 PM [link]
Bill,
I was thinking about ways you could incorporate responsible advertising into the site. I enjoy when contributors mention good books, etc, that they have read, but I am often unable to keep track of all the suggestions. Would it be plausible to create a library of suggested reading that would link to amazon or other book sellers? It could be a service to readers and help to keep the site up and running.
MR
Posted by: BillySundance
at
September 26, 2007 8:36 PM [link]
Interesting to see that today's MSN's StockScouter picks are all Gold and Oil.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/StockScouterTop10.aspx
Posted by: Hoosier
at
September 26, 2007 8:42 PM [link]
Tesoro (TSO) is added to the S&P 500 and (Cara 100) Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) deleted, as of tonight. I have been thinking about removing MXIM from the Cara 100 over this issue, which I find troubling in all the companies that are involved.
Yesterday, the SEC ordered that the Nasdaq Market's decision to suspend and delist the Company's common stock be stayed on an interim basis in order to allow the Commission to more fully consider and evaluate the issues involved in Maxim's appeal. The Company has been conducting a restatement of past financial results which stemmed from an internal review of stock-option grants and practices. As a result of the SEC decision, MXIM will remain listed on Nasdaq and remain part of the Nasdaq 100 pending the Commission's consideration of the issues involved. The Company currently expects its restatement to be completed and its past due periodic reports to be filed during 1Q2008.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 9:37 PM [link]
writersblock and BillySundance, I will consider these and all other suggestions. I'm not rushing out to make changes, but I will if they are wanted and accepted by the community, and will improve the site.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 26, 2007 9:40 PM [link]
jasper- can't recall mentioning an irrigation company..maybe it was someone else?
btw, what happened the day XAU hit 173 and your wife prevailed upon you to sell...
proudPapa- taking another look at BMD, thanks...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
September 26, 2007 11:15 PM [link]
Bill,
I know I'm not in the top decile in terms of annual portfolio performance. I do think I could help though.
Brendan,
Regarding GSS, Rigdon hit the major points .
Of course, as you suggest, as goes gold, so shall go this stock
Posted by: shark_attack
at
September 26, 2007 11:39 PM [link]
Regarding ETFC, they are dropping their mortgage investments, and the losses are going to make their EPS 1.05-1.15. That means they are trading at a PE ratio of about 12 right now, compared with 19 for AMTD and 20 for OXPS.
Long ETFC
Posted by: chas
at
September 27, 2007 1:28 AM [link]
Re Interactive Brokers
writersblock,
I'll second what others have opined so far - The best technology and commissions around. Been trading with them for close to 3 years now and I am very satisfied overall. Note that what you get is their professional trading platform, that they also white-brand and sell to professionals and other brokerages. Highly recommended.
Posted by: Case
at
September 27, 2007 6:30 AM [link]
New stuff up...
Cara100 type Monthly and Weekly data on the maniacs...a comparison of parabolic, NASDAQ late 1990s versus China today. And what's hottest...
Enough to make you nauseous...just click on 'Ron' to access. Good luck.
MHP and MCO are moving nicely as the Senate investigation hearing concludes. I think the worst is over for these two and they could see a nice 15-20% bounce from these oversold positions.
Posted by: BillySundance
at
September 27, 2007 9:47 AM [link]
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I wonder how many banks & hedge funds use Excel as their primary tracking product?
Excel 2007 can't multiply, or is it the old Pentium bug?
http://tinyurl.com/2ksb9o
Posted by: wavesmash
at
September 26, 2007 7:04 AM [link]