Re Cara 100 - MU, possible leading indicator for stock price

Board,

As MU's commodity is DRAM, please take a look at the DRAM pricing graph at www.dramexchange.com; Without being as correlated as unhedged miners are these days, DRAM price does seem to be a factor to consider for this particular stock's price movement.

Just my two wooden nickels...

Article in Bloomberg this morning where Goldman Sachs CFO David Viniar is calling a bottom in the credit markets (LOL). Meanwhile, The Dollar continues to tank, and as Bill says Gold is up.

The link below highlights some words from the (investment) wise during the past week, and also briefly reviews the week’s market action on the basis of a few performance charts.

http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/09/23/words-from-the-wise-for-the-week-that-was-sept-17-23-2007/

the gold discussions are what brought me to this blog in the first place, and hopefully objective gold discussion still takes place among other equities as well.

i know this question has been asked 1 million times in various forms but ill ask again and hopefully people can share their experience on this:

(my own crude summation)

Using RSI studies, ive started watching the
rsi 7 and rsi 14 on the daily charts.
people have given advice suggesting when both rsi's plunge below the middle line, consider selling, and wait for both rsi's to push above that same mid-line for buy signals. (having due note for cycles and accumlation/distribution zones.. which im still trying to grasp)

i used to use the MFI as it seemed a more dynamic verison of the RSI, and im wondering if this indicator can be used in much the same way.

thanks for everyone's continued help!!!

Like they say
"we are living in Interesting times"

http://youtube.com/watch?v=pMcfrLYDm2U
Brian

Latest COT and the MAY 2006 COT

The Commercials have massively increased their gold SHORTS.

Interesting to say the least - DEJAVU

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1190404200.php

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1147463220.php

Bailed out of GSS at $4.24 near the open due to gold not being up plus the minor resistance and the hanging man. Will look to re-buy above 4 again.

Bernanke Has Snookered Us All
by Gary North

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north568.html

Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have done something extraordinary. They have publicly lowered the FedFunds target rate, and have forced down the actual FedFunds rate to meet the target rate, while deflating the money supply.

You read it here first: "deflating."

The only monetary indicator that reveals directly what the FOMC has done in recent weeks is the adjusted monetary base. This is the one monetary aggregate that the FOMC controls directly. It reveals what actions the FOMC has taken.

The adjusted monetary base serves as the monetary base of the fractional reserve commercial banking system. From early July, 2007, to mid-August, it climbed rapidly. From mid-August to mid-September, it fell just as sharply.

This is deflation.

The monetary base declined. This requires an explanation. I have one. The Federal Reserve was simultaneously selling T-bills from its own account. It sold enough to more than offset its purchases of repo's from commercial banks.

The buyers need not have been American commercial banks. They could have been foreign central banks, individual investors, and funds looking for safety/liquidity. The point is, the sale by the FED extinguished the money that came in from outside the FED.

This solved the immediate problem: supplying reserves to banks. If the FOMC bought repo's of assets other than Treasury debt, this provided liquidity for assets that would not have been worth as much as the FED loaned had they been sold into the free market.

Meanwhile, the sale of FED assets such a T-bills enabled the FED not to increase the rate of money growth. It made the repo purchases non-inflationary.

Can this continue? Yes. Will it continue? For a while, maybe. Bernanke seems determined to avoid price inflation. There is only one way to achieve this goal: reduce the rate of monetary inflation. But a policy of monetary deflation or even slow growth does not solve the problem of the business cycle. The U.S. economy will slide relentlessly into recession.

The FED is caught between the rock and the hard place. I believe it will inflate. But this recent decline in the AMB indicates that the FED is determined to hold off for as long as politically possible.

WILL THE FED RE-INFLATE?

Eventually, yes. It has always inflated since about 1938. That is what it does. That is why it exists.

The crucial question today is this: Can the FED avoid a recession without re-inflating seriously? I think the answer is no.

Next: Will it re-inflate fast enough to avoid a recession? Again, I think the answer is no.

Next: Will it re-inflate, once the economy slides into recession? I think the answer is yes.

In other words, between today and the next wave of monetary inflation, we are likely to go through a recession.

I think Bernanke is determined not to inflate. He is willing even to sell T-bills to offset repurchase agreements.

I know there are some of you who follow Khan resources (KRI.TO). Looks like Laramide Resources has upped their holdings in Khan to 12% of the company:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070920/200709200414306001.html?.v=1

We have a month to go from happy to sad.
Later in October there will be another shoe drop or more reports of lower employment.

The market will kick and scream like a 4 year old after too much sugar.

Ben will give the market another lollipop and gold will soar. The BOE, BOJ, and friends and family will help the USD by cutting their rates in light of slowing econs in those countries. Gold will soar more.

Once headline inflation gets momentum, Ben can't stop it, at least without killing the patient along with it.

Bill,

I have a 9/21/07 research report from RBC. Their "top pick" is Anatolia Minerals ANO:TSX. I would be interested to see what your take is on them, if you have a chance to attend their presentation. It seems that most of their operatons are in Turkey so the political questions may be the most important.

Thanks

GSS:

I now wonder if yesterday's lows hold ($4.02) or do we blast right through to about $3.85?

The 200 sma is around 3.75, there's a positive daily gap 3.66
and the cat's sort of out of the bag (no offence, Honeybear) that we're not breaking out this morning to the upside.

If we hold above yesterday's lows we're probably good from here, otherwise a dip into the 3's could temporarily happen.

Cramer's first book is QUITE good!

I decided to read his "Confessions of a Street Addict" because the TV clown is SO influential. It wasn't a bad idea, I thought, to understand who he thinks he is, and where he's coming from.

Surprise: the book is a REALLY good read. First, he's like the Forrest Gump of trading. He writes of having been in Ruppert's office ten years ago re sale of Dow Jones. He went to cash 10/87. He ran a successful hedge fund for 10 years, and started a dotcom which survived. Now he's the star of CNBC. I couldn't put the book down!

The book gives an unvarnished look at his trading, his off-the-rails personality, and his relationship with his wife: the "trading goddess".

He's man enough to admit that she had the guts he couldn't muster on the day in 1998 his hedge fund came within hours of failing. How many of today's celebrities would admit to that, or to having been so drunk as to vomit upon the guests at his surprise birthday party?

OK, it's all part of his schtick, you may say. But still, I gained respect for the guy, and learned alot from his seemingly open recounting of the ups and downs of his rather amazing career.

He talks of skipping classes to "trade his way" through Harvard Law. He opines on what it takes to succeed (and to get thrown out) as a Goldman broker. And for those of us who didn't get around to starting a hedge fund or a dotcom, his confessions (available used on Amazon for about $5 plus shipping) give a feeling for what goes on inside, which I think will help any trader.

I still can take only a few minutes at a go of his TV clowning. I'm not sure he's doing a service to his "booyah" followers. I haven't read his newer books which he shamelessly and incessantly touts. But, I think his earlier "confessions" offer a good risk/reward on a couple of hours of your time.

Just my reaction, for what it's worth ....

Some people have written about Gammon Gold here in the past, so thought I'd mention todays news release that they've replaced their CEO with Rene Marion "who is a high profile executive and mining engineer with extensive experience in planning and developing mining operations with Barrick Gold"

Maybe someone has heard of him and can comment?

http://tinyurl.com/38zras

Disclosure: pick some up on the way down (close to here) and held on after getting burned selling alamos near the bottom...

GRS:
After experiencing some pain and heartburn over GRS over the last several months I am exiting today.
I am glad I did not sell under 8.

The current CEO is quitting after 6 months on the job and the COO recently quit after a month on the job.

Good sale JogyP!

You call that heartburn? I'd call what you've been through chronic acid reflux!

BHP is up 6.5% today, on anticipated news of a huge gold find in S. Australia. Does a mining company worth $224B usually move THAT far, even on major news?

GSS is making something of a double-top on the hourly chart, and was exhibiting a "bearish rising wedge" on the ten minute. I am waiting to see what happens to this one. Would love to buy 3.75 or so.

Late October I will have occasion to meet my niece's fiance who is from Turkey and, reportedly, from a family in the financial sector. I'll ask him about the stability of the government and confidence of western capital. No great revelations expected, but open to any suggestions about more specific questions.

fwiw, two cara 100's on my watchlist...ccj and ice. I took a position in ice, but ccj got away from me. NLR is the new nuclear etf. CCJ is in the top ten along with cara 100 exe.

Canadian Oil sands up today on the news that Abu Dhabi subsidiary buying PrimeWest (PWI) for a few billion.

Bill, I have two questions for you if you care to comment. any significane to the fact that a middle eastern co. is buying a canadian resource company? Secondly, I see that Alberta provincial government changed some tax laws over the weekend. What is the material impact here on the oil sands sector?

I love a gov't report that is titled "Our Fair Share"

http://www.albertaroyaltyreview.ca/panel/final_report.pdf

Does the FED really control ANYTHING? -

John Hussman (Phd economist, now fund manager) writes persuasively that their impact - beyond the psychological - is almost NIL. Bank reserves are now tiny, compared with total loan volume (due to securitization, etc.) He argues the FED doesn't control SHORT term rates, much less long rates!

So, is Bernanke just another wizard of OZ? If so, surely HB&B knows what's behind the screen! Surely the hedge funds know. If so, why hasn't the word gotten out more broadly?

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070924.htm

"Our Boy" Ben should keep a heavy dose of anti-acid tablets handy. Beyond hard/soft goods going vertical, the most speculative ends of the global markets are going parabolic. If the FaceBook speculation has any validity (seriously, $10 billion implicit value), he could have provided enough fuel to reignite a tech bubble. AMZN is almost back to par...

JML

Jock:
Thanks for the Hussman link. I'm learning every day thanks to everyone here, special thanks to the Guide.

I'm beginning to think that the Fed only really controls confidence in the con-game. This they do by jaw-boning and by bailing out speculators at the first sign of equity weakness.

The Fed has figured out that confidence is the key to increasing prices, especially in a bubble economy, and that lack of confidence is the fuel for destabilizing panics. Your positions are only worth what someone else will pay for them.

I continue to believe that gold will really soar when the general populace lose all faith in our leaders and in the dollar. Once they see inflation as a real threat to their savings they will lose confidence in the Fed's game. Until then the Fed tries to maintain the illusion of Wizardry. The Wizard of Oz was about the gold standard after all. The wizard was green for a reason.

ETFC:
Down another 6% on twice the daily volume.
Old Goat, are you still in ETFC?
Anyone think it's a buy here?

FXI has a distinctly parabolic look to me, but then I don't own any :-(

I want to put my IRA where it will earn money but I don't want to have high risk. I lost money in the stock market in 2001 and recently took all money I had in it out again.

Could anyone suggest ideas for me? I've considered mutual funds but my broker doesn't know of any that are mostly or all composed of foreign companies. Are there ETFs that are composed of foreign currency that are fairly safe etc?

Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!

JogyP - ETFC is a "falling knife" ... Very hard to catch without getting CUT. Safer to wait till it bases and then shows a bit of strength.

You can then put a stop under the base, knowing that ETFC trades enough volume to get you out near your stop price, should the knife start to fall again.

Don't put stops at the obvious place, from the chartist's standpoing,cuz that's where EVERYONE will, and the floor will shake you out. Put the stop a little above or below the obvious bottom of the base - if a base develops.

If it doesn't base - i.e. keeps on falling, you don't want to be holding the stock anyway. If it bottoms and shoots right back up, those are the breaks, but at least you won't have to go have stiches !

ETFC:
Yet another question - are they safe enough to keep an account with them ?

Gecko....

Here's a statement from PennWest Energy Trust
on Alberta's new tax scheme and how it would effect their business.

Sounds like future endeavors could be impacted if policy changes.

On September 18, 2007, the Alberta Royalty Review Panel released
recommendations proposing changes to the Alberta oil sands and conventional
oil and natural gas royalty programs for the consideration of the
Government of Alberta. Changes proposed include higher royalty rates on
high productivity wells and lower rates on low productivity wells depending
on commodity prices, the imposition of an "oil sands severance tax" and the
removal of the "old" well classification that attracts a higher royalty
rate under the current Alberta royalty system. At present, approximately
sixty percent of Penn West's production and revenue is derived from
producing oil and natural gas assets on crown leases in Alberta. We
currently believe that, if adopted as proposed, the impact of the suggested
changes on our cash flow from operating activities will not be material due
to the mature nature of the majority our producing assets. We are, however,
concerned about the likely impact of the proposed changes on oil sands
development and production, experimental enhanced oil recovery projects and
further exploration in the province. Our concerns are shared by the
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers ("CAPP"), and we will
participate with CAPP to provide feedback and analysis to the Government of
Alberta as it reviews the panel's recommendations.

I think it is good to encourage the integration of Canadian business with those in the middle east and elsewhere and that this will help Canada long term to prosper and be better respected in the world. As countries get to know each other better and treat each other fairly, there will be growth in trade and benefits for everyone.

Canadian companies also buy many companies around the world - look at all of the mines in recent years which have been owned and brought to production by Canadian companies and also the expansion of many of our financial services companies into other regions of the world (see the announcement from Manulife last week that they are now developing real estate in Vietnam).

Pinetree Cap Gets TSX OK To Buy Back Up To 4.5M Shrs from BNN this while Ink Research mention the big dog has been selling his shares???

Billy Sundance,

Thanks for the info on Khan. I was in Khan but bailed out just before it tanked, although I lost money. So I bought Laramide instead because it had really been beaten down and was definitely a bargain. If you look on Khan's website you can see a table which shows that their stock is the best way to invest in uranium when compared to Larimide, Camenco, etc. Now that the problem with the permit is over, I may jump back in. Do you know what the average cost to Laramide was for their purchase of 5 million shares?

By the way, anyone investing in platinum or platinum miners? One of the upsides is that platinum is not manipulated the way gold is. I like Platmin, though I'm still waiting for the price to drop some more. Somebody else recently mentioned Impala.

Does anyone know of something that doesn't have a lot of risk to put an IRA? I lost money in the stock market in 2001 and recently took my money out of the stock market again.

I don't know if there are mutual funds that have all foreign companies, if there are ETFs that have foreign currencies that you are familiar with etc.

Any ideas and help would be appreciated. Thanks

Not my area of expertise, but for you geologists:

PAL reports Artic Platinum Project drilling results.

http://tinyurl.com/2rd33e

(Disclosure: small PAL long position in IRA)

Closed several positions today as they all pulled back to my stop levels - MU, SBUX, WTI, PKD. I'll look to reload on WTI and PKD. But MU and SBUX look too sketchy here.

I also sold the rest of my CPSL today. It has absolutely exploded in the past three trading days and I'm now afraid I've left a lot on the table. But I'll never regret taking profits.

Interesting news from BHP. I wonder, since KRY is due to release its amended reserve estimates, if long-suffering holders of this stock might get some similar love this week.

... Nah.

For home builder followers, KBH and LEN report earnings tomorrow. KBH may actually bounce up due to infusion of cash from the sale of its French unit this past quarter. This may provide a new shorting opportunity.

News release from Crystallex (KRY). Increase in reserve estimates and increase in costs. No news regarding permit. http://tinyurl.com/2oslsn

Financial History

For many years I have been a History Buff. (Those who do not study history...No future/no past....) and all that. :-)
But I have never studied the history of Money/Finance. I think it's time I corrected that. Could anyone suggest a good primer on the subject?

Thanks in advance.
Lazarus

windancer:

Pray tell what a risk adverse investor would be doing investing in foreign stocks and currency markets?

Maybe you can clarify your risk tolerance and time frame.

windancer5:
Please read Bill's Week in Review, and in particular the section:
Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective
which will give you a starting point. Everything has risk, otherwise no reward. If its an IRA, your timeframe is when you retire. If its 20 years away, you can hope that the markets keep falling for the next 19 years so that you can keep buying cheap.

geckojb:

My thoughts are since the value of the U.S. dollar is falling if I could buy something where the value of their money has more worth, I'd be fairly safe. This apparently is false thinking. My time frame is approx. 8 years.

Do you have any ideas other than what I mentioned where my IRA could earn money but not be too risky?

cyderman:

Thanks for your suggestion and I'm going to read it now.

Bill,
I just hate it when variables are changed and then a comparison is made purporting to be comparing "apples to apples". On September 6th I sent the following email to Crystallex:
\Hello,
I am a Crystallex shareholder with xxxxx shares. I read on a blog today that Crystallex Chairman, Robert Fung doesn’t own any shares of Crystallex. Is this true?
Thanks,
Fred

To date, I have received no response.
If I may borrow one of your phrases, "enough said".

Lazarus -

Financial history is a new interest of mine. I haven't found many good books on this subject but I highly recommend Marc Faber's book Tomorrow's Gold. It is about the boom bust cycle. He describes many boom/busts going back to the Roman Empire.

Ronsen's blog, I believe, listed a book that included a series of lectures regarding the Great Depression: "Understanding the Dollar Crisis" by Percy Greaves. I haven't read it but will be doing so.

Any other suggestions by the community are greatly appreciated.

"But I have never studied the history of Money/Finance. I think it's time I corrected that. Could anyone suggest a good primer on the subject?

Thanks in advance.
Lazarus"

The Money Men by H.W. Brands is a good, albeit quite brief, review of our nation's historical struggle between the forces of capitalism and democracy. ...from Amazon.Personally, found the book very readable.

Bill and Fred, does any of this really matter so long as the Chavez gov't withholds permitting?

Btw, did anyone see the article in the SF Chronicle over the weekend about unregulated diamond mining in Bolivar state? Very troubling.

number2son,
No, it doesn't matter as long as Chavez witholds the permit. I also have a position in Valgold (VAL) which is dependent on Chavez' sensibilities.

Aucorant

RE: Khan

I have no information on the prices LAM.to paid for their positions in Khan (KRI.to). I briefly held a position in LAM.to which I bought into around the severe correction in mid-August and rode for a nice ST profit. In retrospect it would have been nice to hold but I was playing some catch up at the time.

I am more interested in U miners that are more current or near-term producers that do not carry much political risk. KRI.to may have a great amount of reserves in the ground on their Mongolia project, but it isn't worth anything until they dig it up! I am only willing to make tiny bets on things like that.

I am more interested in companies that have demonstrated ability to carry out U projects in foreign countries. I hold Paladin b/c they are currently producing and have succesful projects in Namibia and Malawi. I also hold Uranium One UUU.to b/c they also are a producer with mitigated political risk.

I can be assured these companies will be producers through the next several years as good prices are realized in the U market (IMHO).

As for companies like KRI.to - very high risk/high reward, if that is your game.

Did anyone see the 'interview' with Ahmedinejad on 60 minutes last night? Can there be much doubt that Bush wants war with Iran? Ahmedinejad is being cast as Hitler, version 2, by the media no less.

I've followed Uranerz Energy Corp. (URZ) in the past. Very volatile and it took a big dip earlier in the year.

Actually, the chart looks very attractive right now.

Teck cominico spending some of their money
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20070924&archive=ccnm&slug=414853_1
last week they increased their interest in Fort Hills Project buy 5%

Jock -

Cramer's personable TV character and his willingness to open oh-so-slightly the curtain behind which Wall Street machinations take place are undoubtedly endearing (although some critics have called some of his memoirs more hagiography than truthful biography - I don't know the extent to which he succumbed to the natural human penchant of vanity, but wouldn't everybody want to attenuate his/her worst moments?).

Yet I personally regret that he often chooses the easy way out of the arduous work of investing/trading into the loudest, most garish and mindless lemming entertainment. To his defense, he is at heart a momentum guy and it is hard to make fresh shows every day that capture the essence and timing of such investment style. In addition, I fear that his approach (while it may capture some headline-catching successes) is a disservice to most of his audience - fan base (?), cult following(?) - which sounds more like beginners than semi-experienced investors. Just today, playing with his four tech horsemen (AAPL, RIMM, AMZN , GOOG) on heavy rotation throughout the day on CNBC takes timing skills that most of us (and them) do not possess. Since the novelty of his act worn off for me, I am awaiting the demise of his omnipresent televisual persona in step with this bull market as his core audience (already subject to natural attrition from his bad picks - he screwed up on this pick with my money so I won't listen to him) will not survive even a mild-mannered bear without falling to discouragement and resentment toward an bull actor/gambler always prone to double down.

JML

Lazarus: Have you read P. Bernstein's Against the Gods? It's the history of risk taking (not the history of money, but hits dead center on where they intersect!) I've read it and enjoyed it. But I've heard mixed reviews from others.

Investor village.com has some knowledgable posters in regards to KRY. imo. Not that there aren't any here. Just other takes for those interested. Bashers removed from the site there and only one ID per person forever.

PWI

the article says 26.75 will be paid per share. Closing NYSE price is 26.25..

Talk about the market efficiently pricing!

MU

DRAM prices are still down, while company looking for profit outside of DRAM (i.e.CMOS), still weeks to months before turn around... Interesting post from alleged Micron employee http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.12441984/browse_thread/thread/d1a15373882c201dI do agree lots of upside, and will be following closely.

GRS...any thoughts why most goldminers down today, but a few still up today, like GRS? clearly, potential with GRS but management hasn't executed yet. Does anyone think people buying GRS understand, or is it just being bought because it has "gold" in its name? If it's one of the weaker ones, (it was late to rise), you'd expect it to drop first when Gold goes down, why is it still going up when everyone else going down? New to mining stocks, just trying to understand price behavior...

GOL

Don't think I've seem much here about GOL. Seems like the stock beaten down by external factors. I got some, did anyone else? If so, did you cash out after the 10% increase? I remember Bill recommending taking 2 day 20% gain in HOV, but I think it's different here because of difference in fundamental outlook with HOV and GOL...

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gol

windancer5.

I am still not sure what risk means to you? Losing 5,10,20% is this risk? The tone of your post strikes me as someone who has little tolerance for losing money, though I can be wrong. Why play the currency markets when you can stuff your money into a 5% CD. Though I understand the conundrum of losing purchasing power here over time.

You can approach this from a diversification standpoint and have a certain amount in stocks, bonds, Cash, gold, currency, Market Nuetral fund -whatever you feel is appropriate. Certainly takes the risk out of you having to be right on a single choice right?

From reading you it is my belief that you don't need short term trading strategies but rather you need the help of a professional financial advisor to help map out a game plan.

There is no such thing as a free lunch and you may learn this if you try to sink money into investments you don't understand or think you are investing is "safe" investments when in reality they may not.

Good Luck to you.

Yellowman98 -

GRS has been beaten down so far that it is not surprising to see it gain a bit. However, it has very serious problems and the CEO they brought in to turn it around just resigned after 6 months for 'family reasons'. Not a good sign for the company.

JML/Jumble -

I'm sorry if Cramer lost you money. I wasn't recommending his TV clowning, only the "Confessions of a Wall St. Addict", which I found MOST instructive - as well as entertaining.

Here's what Barrons wrote a month ago about the performance of his hedge fund: "His firm, Cramer Berkowitz, went on to rack up 24% annualized returns over the next decade or so, a performance for which Cramer generously shares credit with his former colleague, Jeff Berkowitz, and one of the firm's traders: his then-wife, Karen."

Barrons also had some "issues" with his TV performance: http://tinyurl.com/2osee4
(You may need to be a barrons online subscriber to see the above).

Lazarus, Moab,

A fascinating rcnt history is calld "Bull" but I can't rmmbr th author. It talks about th 80's and 90's. Sorry about my kboard! I lost th lttr . Rminds m of a book calld "A void" by a frnch author...

Thanks for the Book Suggestions everyone.
I'll look into them.

1 I'm reading now I would recomend highly is not a History but is all about Trading.
Dr. Alexander Elders book."Welcome to My Trading Room".

I beleave Bill said "The man is not selling dreams......" He is not but he has great (IMHO) advice & insight.
I feel sure that it is making me a better Traader. Minus the pipe-dreams LOL

"I also note that General Electric would like to negotiate a piece of the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL). The long-term prospects for the uranium industry remain solid."

Adverse conditions for the price of U3O8 may be the future. Infrastructural investment is probably a better course of action, but there are relatively few investment vehicles. We're talking outside of the scope of investors except for very large cap.

Be careful on how you view the nuclear fuel cycle. U3O8 is not fuel. It is raw material, the various stages and forms of nuclear fuel and design relying on Uranium as its source is far more expensive and is the actual fuel used. The mass of uranium that is depleted in the process is discarded, creating stockpiles of uranium hexaflouride. => .17%, I believe is used as reactor grade material.

There is enough waste plutonium in the world to power nuclear development in a breeder reactor cycle, producing 1% more fuel then put in with each reactor load. You can see why breeder reactors are favoured, say in Japan.

There are also signs that waste weapons grade material is being down blended for use in civil reactors. This indicates that a shortage of enriched products is not in the cards, but an overwhelming oversupply.

Note that the collapse of the Soviet Union brought about a large peace dividend of downblended material which depressed prices for the long term, the same is about to occur in the west. There are also grave risks to using downblended supply from weapons, notably runaway civil reactions, and weapons device fleet renewal.

Nautilus miner looks to be ready for the promotion trail. They proudly show that the big boys are on their side. Earlier this morning when I read references of support by the large gold companies and what else I could find, I thought why not risk a little as a well informed spec bet. No doubt a very interesting company, but I wonder about environmental issues. If I was green activist I'd be quite alarmed. Keeps me cautious wondering if I can ever be informed enough and will I be spreading risk to far afield? Will I distract myself from how I manage the rest of my portfolio? While I may only take a 1% or less position I'm still required to give it my attention. My risk tolerance can bounce around like an errant golf shot. Strong push=pull with the specs.When I think about the process I remain convinced that there is more than one Bill Cara. One of them is very good at it and the other just must love what I call stress....and second ave may remind me is "fun".

geckojb-

Thank you for your comments, suggestions and replying to my post.

Interesting commentary about canadian miners in the link below that also touches upon the uranium theme.
I might add that Uranium One Inc. (UUU), a consolidator of uranium miners has an interesting chart. (While uranium miners may be seeking a bottom, producers like McDermott are parabolic...Exelon is not too shabby either.)

Some old retired GE engineers whom I know, biased of course, see nuclear energy as the most obvious solution to varied energy issues. Pollution in China is a severe threat to their growth. Hence, one of the reasons that I have been stubbornly holding onto my GE position...and got me interested in the brand new nuclear etf/nlr. Can not say that this etf is at bargain prices.

http://tinyurl.com/26e7s5
quote:
The rising cash flows mean that many metals producers are overcapitalized and eager to find ways to use their cash. That, coupled with the challenge of replacing old production with new exploration, makes mergers and acquisitions much more alluring than building new mines."Cash flows are putting all small and midcap companies in play," Vail says. Producers are well aware of the quality of their competitors' ore deposits and in many cases are buying up adjacent properties whose mineralization they believe they know. "So they're able to move very quickly to make a decision."

Re GRS:
I think they recently hosted an analyst tour at Ocampo. Seems like they made a good impression.

Re GRS:
Dislosure - modest long position just in the green.

Hot news, just announced: US Federal Reserve has just injected another $38 billion into markets. http://tinyurl.com/2wvdjw Also coming soon to your favorite news provider.

But you knew this last Monday... and that it was going to be announced with great fanfare today:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070924.htm

"Show me the money!

This week provides an instructive opportunity to observe this in real time. On Thursday, September 27th, an unusually large $24 billion amount of repurchase agreements will come due, leaving only about $7 billion of repos outstanding. It should come as no surprise, then, that the Federal Reserve will most likely enter into a seemingly enormous $24 billion or so in new repurchase agreements by Thursday afternoon. This will undoubtedly be reported with great fanfare, and will be interpreted as a “massive injection of reserves into the banking system” by the Federal Reserve, as if these funds are new liquidity. This interpretation will be utterly incorrect. It will be nothing but a rollover of existing repurchase agreements that the Fed routinely enters into in order to maintain a stable amount of reserves in the banking system. "