FYI: the Noront Broker Presentation
http://tinyurl.com/3e3ecg

Funny Bill, I had been reading this story over and over this morning. "Gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East." "Inflation For Saudi Arabia, the dollar peg has clearly become a liability. Inflation has risen to 4pc and the M3 broad money supply is surging at 22pc.

The pressures are even worse in other parts of the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates now faces inflation of 9.3pc, a 20-year high. In Qatar it has reached 13pc"

http://tinyurl.com/3cp9jq

WOW, USD Index at 78.835 now!

Bill, I love your stories.

re: POG - lots of time yet before sept 30...so, $750 very achievable!

regards,

joey

green arrow- GS>210 pre-market...12% in two days, congrats...

CAD dollar at 99.80.

Bill Murphy of Metropole Cafe:

"One thing for sure, the U.S. can't lower interest rates to the degree they did, as oil rages to one all-time high after another, without consequences. A significant consequence (obviously) is higher inflation, much higher inflation than is considered tolerable. A tanking dollar will fuel that inflation even more.
"At some point long term interest rates are going to take off. The temporary relief for U.S. financial markets will then turn into exasperation again. Our stock and real estate markets will feel that stress and move accordingly ... down. Meanwhile, gold will be the place to be."

Full story from Peter Brimelow: http://tinyurl.com/2bzmx9

Brimelow also updates Hulbert's timing sentiment index to say that it "showed a jump to plus 30.3% Wednesday night. As of the previous evening, the HSNSI stood at just 17.4%, which Mark Hulbert pronounced as bullish from a contrary-opinion point of view.
The HNSI is still well below the 50.9% level it reached when making its assault on 14,000 in July. But it's getting closer."

i have trouble understanding how Oil-rich Arab states would be so complicit in a US dollar plunge,

places like Saudi Arabia, Quatar, Kwuait and U.A.E. have bent over backwards to accomoadte US interests either fiscally or militarily for decades since the old oil embargo's.

im wondering if the looming threat of Isreal's closing off of Gaza and recent incursions into Syria w/ US consent spell the end of mutual cooperation, hence a widespread dumping of the USD?

BMD:

PRNewswire
07:30 a.m. 09/20/2007


CALGARY, Sept 20, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Birch Mountain Resources Ltd. ("Birch Mountain" or the "Company") (BMD: TSX and AMEX) announces that it will explore strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value. This may result in a joint venture, merger, sale of the Company or other corporate transaction. To assist in these activities, Birch Mountain has established a special committee of the board of directors comprised of independent directors and the board has appointed RBC Capital Markets as financial advisor. There can be no assurances that any of these activities will result in the consummation of an agreement or transaction.

Dr. Cosa,
Why would/should they sell us oil for a substantial and increasing discount?

The USD is around $0.78. To get a full dollar of purchasing power they need approx. $1.31 USD.

There are countries that will pay in Euro equiv. of $1.40.

Why on earth would they want to take $0.78 USD instead of $1.40 euro?

"If Uncle Ben needs any more excuses, he'll have 'em tomorrow....Say hello to $740 gold."

Posted by: shark_attack at September 17, 2007 9:43 AM

Now I need to figure out why I thought selling GSS yesterday was a good idea. You can buy it back cheaper 'till you can't.

Also, CNBC is now touting metals...is the move maturing?

POG is set to orbit. Luckily I reloaded several positions on yesterday's little dip. I couldn't resist. Thought I was going to be smart and reload a half position of GFI in my IRA and see if there was a sale premkt. WRONG! Hard to complain when I'm doing good on the reload, but wish I'd gone for it. Did buy more WGDFF and GDX too.

Today we're under protection of Glenda the Good Witch.

Greenspan interview on Bloomberg right now.

I think this is the "public participation phase" of the metals move. And yes, it's incredibly painful to me watching GSS do it's thing without me. My sister's in it though, due to my pick.

out of HOV at 13.40...plan to visit a few of their developments in Irvine this weekend...

disappointed in the price action on HERO the day after i opened, but recall the same kind of action on FCX following the same kind of insider buying...we'll see....

Dearest shark,

I feel your pain! I got out at $3.62. You know I am so tired of learning my lesson. I want to know!!

So, we can't even get into WGDFF now. I got out of that in july.

oh well I'm in ABX and GFI. Am grateful for a lot.

Light and Love to all.

good read from someone who probably has a good read on the whole situation.

it's also telling that Markman would post something like this. he's been bullish for a while.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/AreWeHeadedForAnEpicBearMarket.aspx

Bill, I'm wondering what happened to PNP.TO/PNPFF after your favorable comments yesterday. Fell out of bed (and me with it.)

Here is the Gold/XAU ratio I brought forth during the height of the selloff:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$XAU&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p95004174883

I advised that it was the signal I had been waiting for to go long miners. Note I had to be very patient to see this "no-fail" spike over 5 in the ratio. (18 months!) "bb" also gave you the safer way to play it which was long miners/short gold. This trade has been exremely profitable. :)

I am still in blackout on market conditions and comment and likely will be for another 8 weeks or so.

Good luck and good trading all.

Good Morning,

And it is a good morning. I've held gold/silver stocks since April
of this year. Because the stock market was oversold, I felt this
sector had a good chance of moving upward.

Everyday I'd watch the charts of gold, silver, USD, FTSE, NIKKEI,
from kitco, ino, Bloomberg and pimco. It is quite an education of how the world's economy works. By listening to many sources, mainly this blog, I managed to stay with UXG, WGDF, ECU, HL, KGC, SLW, and KRY.

Bill, you are right about making most of my money the past two
days. I have 40% of my portfolio in these stocks, so I have been sweating bullets. I'm going to sell about 1/2 today or tomorrow. I think that is the prudent thing to do.

Thank you Bill, I have learned so much from your teaching.

Sarah-Hadassah

Hey everyone,

Sorry for the long absence but I've been busy with life! I'm sure no one noticed :P

PM and PM miners looking excellent for those who held. The question now is how to put together an effective exit strategy. With the USD plunging, the PPT is bound to step in at some point.

However, I've made this mistake before. Selling stocks / sectors that are breaking 52 week or all-time highs immediately after they do so means you miss a fair bit of upside. Here, that could be substantial.

GG is near 52 week, KGC broke it, MDG broke it, ABX broke it, AU near it, NEM near it... that's nto to speak of the juniors that are on fire.

Silver's lagged, but now it should move fast and hard right? Looking for big moves in HL, PAAS, SLW, SSRI, which has begun today!

So not wanting to miss at 10-15% spike from here, what's a good exist strategy. We sit at the cusp of an all-time high on XAU. Where to from here?

Mark m's ratio got my attention; it taught me after the fact about the pain in the spike that lead to the sell off in August...but also kept me involved seeing the potential of a spike the other way; up. I used the ratio of $gdm to gld. And, I might be wrong but I think that a lot of folks were buying and selling to catch the profit of the day and are missing this move. I may come a few percentage points below my port high in july and will need some emotional disicpline this time around. Back to charts, trend line drawing, and sell button.

Bill's commentary this morning is quite bold, straightforward, and puts fear into my smaller taxable account which has been buy-hold. Weighted in GE which I bought off the lows years ago in hope that they would particiapte a whole lot more in health, energy, and bric than their bottom line shows. Sort of all beside the point when considering Bill's big picture re-stated for us slow learners.

Using .gdm; all time high when i look at fido's chart is 1266, may 11, 2006. Today, the high is 1241. Weekly rsi has not hit overbought levels of last mentioned high.

Well, it's here: CAD at 1.000.

One suspects that much of this week's rally may be due to short-covering, as well as sidelined cash, scrambling to throw in, now that "Buy Gold!" has become the story de jour. Once that covering is done, and options expire, one wonders whether a pullback might not be out of the question. However, it seems to me that this is just beginning to unfold. If one ramification of BB's interest rate cuts is higher inflation, then we have a long way to go. It seems to me, then, that gold would have a ways to go higher, too. Am I interpretting this correctly, or am I way off the rails?

Faz, I'm holding SLW and HL and, at this point, I'm looking for weakness to add to my positions. I think we'll test their spring highs before this thing is over.

SH...Wow, you really did have conviction.

WRT to exit strategy, using markm's ratio, the move is just a little over half way to the end of the last spike. Anyone buying?

It seems the shorts are after 10.75 in MU. I have a an uptrend line there and if broken portends 10.40(test of recent bottom).

2nd ave. u have any thoughts here(or anyone else).
I'm long MU for the moment.

Dab

In the interest of helping others learn (and heal myself), I have to describe how I completely botched a trade in BSC this week.

I opened a bearish put spread at the end of last week in anticipation of the Fed meeting and earnings. My forecast was that by October, BSC would trade below $110. If it did, the spread would be profitable. If not, the spread would ensure my loss would be within my level of risk tolerance.

Well, when the Fed surprised the market on Tuesday, I panicked and closed the long end of the spread early yesterday morning -- at just about the time the stock hit it's top of $122. Then, as the stock reversed I panicked again, closing the short end of the spread at the day's low (and when premium was at its highest).

I'm am ashamed of this. And even though the loss was minimal, it is yet another lesson to me in how easy it is for emotion to influence our trading decisions. I am particularly ashamed because I anticipated the sequence of events, yet reacted emotionally to the Fed action and feared all the financials would move much higher. Even BSC, which still was scheduled to report on Thursday.

I was also spooked by the market's reaction to Lehman's report, which bogusly claimed they beat numbers when in fact those numbers were deliberately lowered.

I should have kept the spread in place as my maximum loss was already within my risk tolerance levels. But I thought I could change my plan midstream and turn a loss into a profit. As it happens, I acted to ensure a maximum loss.

Anyway, that's my testimony for today. My name is N2Son, and I am a loser.

This was an excerpt from a ZACK's report that was recently released,"Micron Technology (MU) and two other chipmakers are likely to report triple-digit percentage declines in earnings."

This may be what is pressuring the stock recently.

Dab

Beers are on me n2s. What's bothering me is until gold finally got the idea a few days ago, none of these markets were really trending, 'cept the dollar going south. So I am so used to jumping on dimes and quarters, that I didn't appreciate a trend when I saw one. Also, my previous GSS trade became so unprofitable so fast, that I was too quick to sell at a small profit thinking that I'd been lucky and not smart, why press my luck?

Still working on total market proficiency.

Jasper,

Re your GE holding, GE as a company is well positioned in a conservative way to take advantage of the growth around the world and a lower US, so it's business value is quite strong - the question is what happens to the stock price. There are a couple of ways this could play out and selling your GE may not be the best move.

1) The market could tank and take everything down with it, in which case selling would be better.

2) The second option, which is the one the US administration is trying to push through is a devaluation of the dollar to reduce net foreign debt and to make the US Economy more competitive. If they are successful, the value of the GE businesses should hold up well, and the stock should do go up in US dollars as the dollar falls. This is what has been happening to the overall market the last 4 years and pretty much the entire US bull market has been offset by the currency decline against most currencies.

I guess the third option, if you agree with how Bill sees he markets playing out, would be to sell GE and find the equivalent "Asian GE", which should do even better.

Good luck with this one. At least you made a good buy on it, have gotten some good dividends and capital gains.

Craig:

re: my comment,

yes i am curious why many oil rich arab states have sacraficed more lucrative currency fixes in order to favour the US administraions over the years, and would suddenly now begin dumping their USD holdings and begin demanding other currencies for oil when they can simply demand more of said currency as they have for the past several years.

a large scale collapse of the USD would likely hurt these states as well, and their hold on power/stability in the region...

Okay, take this from someone that did well trading in and out. That is over as of today.
The sentiment is changing from slight doubt to greed and it's going to stay that way for a while now on inflation fear/speculation. I reloaded yesterday and expected further pullback today. Wrong so far. I don't think we get big pullbacks unless the whole market goes south. If we get minor ones I'd be a buyer of small miners and WGDFF. Don't you really like WGDFF? LOL! I'm starting a Interactive Broker acct to get into NOT and similar plays in CDN dollars.

ST I'd buy MU at 10.40.

Dr. Cosa,
Perhaps then, this was the straw that broke the camel's back?

Sorry....couldn't resist.

Re. Bill's other post today on XAU: "If the prior cycle high of 171.71 can be beaten this week, then the top is open-ended. This could be a parabolic move, which will require your finger close to the sell button. You can make your whole year here in the next few days if that parabolic move occurs."

I have an INTRADAY high today of 171.72.

bb, if we "reduce net foreign debt," won't this curtail the US' ability to fund the war?

bb...thanks for the thoughtful feedback. Now, where is that "asian Ge?"

Northern Dynasty is breaking out huge from its weeks long base at 10. Will be riding that one.

Silver seems to be next to the breakout party as commercial traders sit on the lowest short position in four years. Added to ECU as it is poised to break out with silver from a five month long base.

I will use g034's strategy of selling on trend line break (day chart, maybe 5 min chart if the parabola arives). That way I get most of the upside.

Craig:

yes, nice one.

states like Saudi Arabia would face severe instabiilty should they participate in a large scale dumping of the USD as there is a significant military presence in the Gulf.

all the riches in the world mean very little to the royal house of Saud should they loose their grip on power,

if that means oil at $100 per barell but still in USD, i believe they will take it as opposed to participating in the move away from USD.

Iran so far appears to be the only major producer in the mid-east making demands for yen from japan for some oil purchases.

i do wonder what the last straw price wise would be to make them take the chance at destabilizing the region.

XAU and Gold Ratios Sep 20, 2007 11:47 NY Time
XAU
171.77 +5.62 Gold / XAU Ratio 4.28

Can someone ESPLAIN parabolic move ? is this what Bill said this am ??

good day all

Parabolic on a chart, a parabolic curve, VERY STEEP (rapid) UPWARD MOVEMENT. Not yelling.... caps for emphasis.

Originally, I went long KRY soley for the potential return, based on my belief that the political risks were overblown. Any thoughts on KRY more as a gold price play? This could pack some extra punch, no? Its been rather quiet lately and the share price seems stable.

I believe the Saudi's made a deal in the 80's with the US - they would drive oil prices down by increasing production in order to destroy some of Iran's wealth an defang them. In return the US would provide military protection for the oppressive Saudi regime. Bandar (former foreign minister) was considered an uncle to Bush Jr. A breakdown in this relationship spells trouble in many different ways, not just monetary. Considering we have blundered into empowering Iran with the Iraq fiasco, Saudi frustration is understandable.

Do real time quotes tell the whole story? Schwab's reatime quotes on SLW for example, show piddling little trades of 100 to 1000 shares.

SLW has traded 2.9M shares today. I guess NONE of the block trades show up here. Cramer's Confessions book tells how he spread his commmissions around, in order that brokers would call to tell him when big sellers appeared on his positions.

All the more reason to think we the people can't compete on short-term tactics, only on larger, longer moves ....

I made a previous statement that I believed Gold would go to $710 by October and $750 by March and I think it was $800 by January of 2009.

While the first target has been reached I want to say that I believe I am being conservitive on my timeframe with these numbers and I posted the outlook as a directional play, so that people could use these forecasts as guildance, along with the other research that they use, to time the market.

I also want to add that I would not be surprised to see $1000 gold reached by sometime in 2009.

GDX - Out @ 45.80
GLD short (offset to GDX) - covered @ 72.85

Exit based on STO(14,9) stochastic crossover on 10-minute chart, confirmed by MACD(24,48,9).

As usual, I presume I've exited "too soon", but want to preserve nice 3-day gain. Subjectively, looks like both GDX and GLD due for pullback. In fact, GLD pullback already underway.

Jock

FWIW, I just set my Schwab 1min/5days chart to 30 minute increments, added up the volume and I came up with an accurate 2.9 mil figure.

Opening 30 minutes trading was 761K shares. It's much slower during this lunch hour. Didn't pay attention to any block trades earlier. Will watch this and other holdings. (Long SLW)

MU- dab, i'm not concerned about MU...basis is about 10.95 and it's just one position among many...there's going to be an upside at some point, and i just want to be positioned for it...i've seen this one take off...

BB, Jasper

RE: "Asian GE"

While not an Asian company, I have recently invested in SNC Lavalin - the Canadian engineering firm. They have been pretty actively swallowing up small engineering firms around the world (most recently in a firm in India I believe). Here is a list of there areas of expertise from the co website:

Agriculture
Agri-food
Chemicals & Petroleum
Environment
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Light Industry
Mass Transit
Mining & Metallurgy
Operations and Maintenance
Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology
Power
Procurement
Project Financing
Project Management
Training and Development

Recently they stumbled by underestimating costs on a power project which I think has dealt the stock a temporary setback. Could be a good idea for the smaller GE you are looking for (and you can buy the stock in CAD!)

http://www.snc-lavalin.com/

After months of reading and study, I've started down the road with real money. In July, I sold of the retail stocks I owned (for years) awarded to me via my employment (they were sold at the top, and I knew it). In July, I began to purchase other equities.

As of today, I'm up 11%.

Current holdings:
GFI
WGDFF
SBUX

GFI and SBUX were purchased in the >30 accumulation zone. WGDFF was purchased after Bill's report in seekingalpha.My portfolio is currently holding 12% cash.

I've purchased a couple of books on options, based on Bills comments a few weeks ago regarding McDonalds. I won't be into options for quite some time, but his comments have promted me to begin studying in this area.

Love to read all you comments every day. Thanks to all of you in the community.

Writersblock,

when I say the administration wants to reduce their debt, I mean their debt in other currencies. They've been doing this for the last few years and are now paying interest in $0.80 dollars.

For those of you investing in NOT (and are interested in fundamentals), watch the market cap figures as Globeinvestor.com has it at $181 million, but the press release coming out today states they have 95 million shares, so their market cap is actually $310 million.

Also, for the non-Canadians out these, if you are looking to invest in Canadian companies, in general, globeinvestor.com tends to have more information than say a Yahoo Finance and the stockhouse.com bullboards have much more information than the Yahoo Message Boards.

Thanks for the global info bb, much appreciated.

The Canadian press gives the impression that the the Canadian economy could remain strong in the face of a U.S. recession. I am skeptical. The two economies are still so closely intertwined.

Granted, the debt is under control and the economy is more commodity-based; but is that enough?

im still new to this blog so forgive me if my question comes off as spam, its not,
among Gold stocks there is no mention of
TRE (TNX.TO)

jim sinclair's company who ive followed for the past few years.

any thoughts appreciated and again, sorry if such a mention is considered in bad taste.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tnx.to

2nd,
Still in UNG?
Keep an eye on the news....16-17% of gulf NG shut in.

Marc Faber's latest presentation:
Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Analysis of the Global Economic Expansion
http://tinyurl.com/ynuj2j

Goldman reported blowout earnings, soared $7 and is now in the red. That says something to me.

RE: I believe this tactic is done . . .moving the (future gains on the) stock into a non-taxable account.

I always wondered when in a very bullish situation for a stock, there would be a huge number of shares traded. I always wondered, "Who is doing the selling, and why?" This helps to explain the why.

Seamus -

thanks for looking into schwab realtime, and helping me to control my paranoia! - I guess the block trades tick by quickly, and unless you're watching the screen like a hawk, you miss them.

Took 1/2 my profit in HL when it hit my target today. Amazing to me that it hit support exactly at price I predicted. Let's see if it retests or pulls back a bit from here.

Any followers of CPSL? Strong buying today.

As for MU, it is holding support today and I have noted that it has a bullish divergence in both the RSI and MACD on the daily charts. I'm holding.

In case anyone is interested - US Gold is holding an investor luncheon in Toronto on Oct. 3.

craig-yes, still in UNG and added this morning...

Amazing to me that it hit support

that should be: Amazing to me that it hit resistance...

Dr. Cosa
I watch tnx closely and was in on the run in 2005
haven't owned since, but i think any longterm buy around here will be successful as Sinclair is the real deal.

re miners: i've noticed some people bet pretty big on the sector, and i'm glad it's paying off now...but man, what a ride it must have been...

Big moves in the yield curve today. Short end dropping quickly and long end rising quickly. We may see 6% on the long bond in a month - could be negative for equities at that point.

The million dollar questions - are foreigners dumping bonds because they don't want to be paid back in wooden nickels?

moab,

As the curve normalizes, i agree, could be pent up demand for bond exposure which will come out of equities. Then again, it could also come out of shorter term fixed income instruments, too.

When I look at either the 10 or 30 yr bond charts, looks too easy to short as price moves back into the upper range. I'll leave that too others, just interesting to look at long term charts, particularly with .xau on the same chart as bonds. Sometimes it moves with, sometimes not.

I never felt better being a total novice.
No one will seriously ask me my investment thesis or follow my advice, at least I hope not.

Remember, straw man on YBR....needs a brain.
Have heart and sometimes too much courage.
I can only tell you how I feel.

Also glad to not want to see how far I can piss.
Time for a pill......

ALOHA !!

My portfolio of mining companies is quite green today ... expecially ECU and GIX ... I also benefit as a US investor from the Canadian dollar! OH CANADA ... Mentioning POG and POS ... in one word UP !! All my buying(not selling)of gold and silver since 2001 ... actually since 1979 has paid off well. Way better than the DOW ... As a matter of fact every investment I am in has paid off better, including art, real estate and private companies. My only fault, which I only spend all of the few seconds pondering it,was waiting for a POG dip, but was that even wrong yet? We're still in the short term ... I will not chase anything on a rally up or down! Its not easy but most of the time "waiting" has been my best startegy! Time will tell, my contrarian part based on past experience has told me that when there is POG hype 30 year highs flying its time for a correction. We'll see when and by how much ... Given I believe a DOW tanking in October/November the PTB will make every attempt to crash POG and PM shares and make the US Dollar and Treasuries a safe harbor. I still have a lot of cash ... yet I still move into the Perth Mint and PM shares also. I also believe the "money movers' at the ECB and all other currencies will not sit still and let the US Dollar cut into their export biz ... Who holds a lot of US Dollars? China, Japan & Canada our largest trading partners(if you call it a partnership)... more like hostages! Look for a US Dollar faux rally ... YES the USDX is down 78 and change and has broken 30 year support but that still does not mean it can't rally.

You know there are so many factors running this "money show" ... its all about money isn't it. I mean who dumps cash into the DOW or GOLD hoping to lose it? At some point all these profits and losses must be "cashed out". That my friends is the BIG PICTURE as I have been saying for years.

When ever I read analysis of M, M3 or charts or BLS numbers and CPIs I can't get too excited about it and hang my hat on any "one" factor ... The truth is the World does not operate in a vaccuum and that is why I have to look at the BIG PICTURE and not focus on any one little micro spec of data. Really, we are all in that avalanche of FIAT headed for the cliff. The only time we don't ever see that is when we look at the DOW or GOLD or any of our "investments". It all stands still until you get the bill!

jasper- did you hit the sell button at all today?

I had the XAU closing at 172.13 above the cycle high. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

USD at 78.625, CRB 333.32.

PPT around the corner?

stopped out of MU@10.70

So we have the USD spiraling downward, the sub-prime and CMO mess unraveling and the Economist.com warning about the Chinese "nuclear option". (The Chinese export more to Europe than they do the US - maybe the "peg" is looser than anyone thought). Iran is trying to unload oil in Euros and the FED is looking at possible insider trading at hedge funds!

Is it the opinion of the Bill and the community here that we are heading for a depression? I personally see a recession at the least as inevitable given the financial mess in both the private and public sectors of this country. Should I just start up a backyard still and start running hooch?

I've asked for advice on this board before and continue to read it religiously. But, as someone who recently graduated and has just started working in the financial industry I am at a loss as to my next move.

Pay off debts by completely liquidating all of my possessions? Sure, but I still won't have enough to cover student loans.

I can imagine other in the country are in the same boat I am. I feel their pain but I don't have the capital to execute some of the strategies suggested. Any advice?

2nd,
I did sell a large position in EWY/s.korea from a tightened trailing stop loss; fido did it for me. Not good any finding the sell button myself.

As for gold and miners...my bet is at 21%...not the 40% of another poster...and I already did some hairtrimming earlier in the month....and daily 60 min rsi is still in a positive trend...and I will need to stop making excuses before long. Words like "make your whole year" get over emphasized.

Pay off debt. Student loan debt is "good" debt in that it's an investment in yourself and future. Pay off CC's and other debt first, then student loans. Don't forget to claim the student loan interest deduction on the short form. Buying consumables in bulk like TP, frozen foods,, canned goods, paying insurance for the term all will save $$$. The service fee on insurance billing ads 10% to your insurance bill. You can make that 10% by paying in full for the term.

Words like "make your whole year" get over emphasized.....

as in MY head.

Hello All, I have not been able to comment lately, just to busy with work , family, and obligations. But, when possible I have been monitoring and watching with great interest as this community continues to grow. Bill, your work on this Blog is something to behold as this new market environment unfolds. Kudos to you, and thanks ever so much for your perspective. Yes, gold and the PM's have seemed to finally break out, but MACD for the bullion, and the XAU have become very overbought above their 21 day moving averages. We must be alert to profit taking near term. Agree with Kaimu, the US Dollar will probobly rally short term. Sold possition in KRY last week, Agree, with Bill it's a Venezualen Dog with Flea's, and lost 4% but will move on. Listened to some of the Ben & Hanks Dog and Pony show on Bloomberg. This country is in deep doo.

Golditis...for those that trade domestically..i.e not in Canada...I find that the miners on the TSX are a little clumsy to puruse. I'm not comfortable buying a stock without daily and intraday data, not to mention bid and ask. Over the past few days I called the international desk at Fidelity to learn more. There is a way to have just about everything but real time intraday charts. Between fido's platform and going to tsx.com one can get a nice looking intraday chart that is 15 minutes delayed. The fundamentals on the other hand are elusive for me. I doubt that any amount of digging could come close to Bill's knowledge and networking. Nosof(not.v for real time at fido) got my attention as something to just look at. One should read Bill's post directly about this mining locale and any connected miner. My only point is that I think I previously passed on good companies from the exchange because it was new to me. Morever, when it comes to stocks I try to make small to smaller positions. As for Nosof it was quite small trades. I put an order with limits set at the lower end of the range. Eventually, filled. To my surprise the stock took off this afternoon on high volume. Some of the big players must be making a killing. Speculation on the juniors like not.v where earnings are negative must be a sign.

jasper- OK..note that Seamus brings up good excuses above for trimming at this point...21% exposure sounds reasonable, 40% is out there...reward is usually commensurate with risk..but taking a 20-25% haircut in front of a 10% gain sounds harrowing to me...i prefer having smaller celebrations each week...

speaking of which, very fortunate to exit with a profit on HOV, but trapped in a paper loss on CFC at this point...NFI closed out at a minor loss...

dab- have to assume position size affected your decision to place a stop on MU...it's a good company in a business that has no pricing power right now..

GDX-paying close attention to the action and will put it to good use in the future, but can't/won't be playing it now...

UNG-sold half into the close...

Bill,,,clearly gold has run up quite sharply and will probably continue to do so for now.

I believe that you mentioned that gold will be the last runner before a major bear mkt.

My question is this,,,,Then What??

Where do you see as the best place to park my "Dollars".

Short etf's, etc.??

I'm not a large investor and am currently 100% cash.

Dab

Western Goldfields arranges $30.01-million financing

2007-09-20 16:58 ET - News Release

Mr. Brian Penny reports

WESTERN GOLDFIELDS ANNOUNCES A $30M BOUGHT DEAL FINANCING

Western Goldfields Inc. has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by Wellington West Capital Markets Inc. and RBC Capital Markets, and including Scotia Capital Inc., pursuant to which the underwriters have agreed to purchase 9.84 million common shares of the corporation on a bought-deal basis, at a price of $3.05 per common share, to raise gross proceeds of $30,012,000. The financing is scheduled to close on or about Oct. 12, 2007, and is subject to regulatory approval and completion of definitive documentation. The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes. All amounts are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated.

The underwriters have the option to purchase from the company up to an additional 1,476,000 common shares at the issue price at any time prior to 30 days following the closing of the offering for further gross proceeds of $4,501,800, which would increase the offering to $34,513,800 if fully exercised. The common shares to be issued under the offering will be offered by way of a short form prospectus in all provinces of Canada, except Quebec.

We seek Safe Harbor.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Life of mine required capital for start up and sustainment is 115 mill. Orginal financing plus the line of credit plus the net from this new financing leaves about 79 mill roughly in the cash register. Rumor has it an acquisition is in the works.

2nd,
GDX tracks $gdm very closely, I think...so I use it for long term ratio charts. A downfall at fido.

I'll try once more to see if this goes thru.

http://tinyurl.com/yqb2z4

Craig,
I see you plan on an account at Interactive Broker. Does that allow you to trade electronically on the Toronto exchange from the US? (i.e. no phone calls to the International desk at Fido or local office of Scottrade?)

mebea,
I assume that you're young, (new graduate, new job). Its a time of life to take risk - you'll have plenty of time to recover from your mistakes. Use debt to leverage investments, not to buy goodies, so pay off all debt that has usurious rates like credit cards. In "normal" circumstances, I would say get the max mortgage on any real estate you buy, but for the next few years you may be better off renting. Above all, make sure you can sleep with any position you take.

Thank you for the advice Bill. It's easy to get a little spooked given the current environment and Marc Faber all over Bloomberg. I don't have credit card debt, only student loan debt.

I agree with the sentiment of this community which, in its own way, has given me a strong sense of prudence.

I can live with 30k/year. It's finding the 400k to move and shake that might take some time. Any advice where to look? Just thought I'd ask.

cyderman....fwiw....I no longer have to call the desk....even the adjusted ticker symbol comes up on line...matter of knowing how to do it...what I don't forgive fido for is poor communication about "good faith violations". I think wherever one goes there are compromises. just my 2cents....and who knows maybe i will give IB a try.

cyderman -
IB allows electronic trading on a large number of international exchanges including Toronto. You have to subscribe for specific exchange data feed for a small fee.

Aloha Kaimu!

Let it go, no ones perfect. When you were calling for POG with a 5 handle, the POG at $630-$640 was oversold and approaching support. I stuck my neck out at the time calling you out simply because the community respects you and I felt that long term gold bulls like US should never be chicken littles when gold is; oversold, and at anytime some "thing" could happen to launch gold to new heights. Predicting a $100 drop in POG is not responsible, IMO. What is something you said led to another trader going short, or selling their gold hoping for a lower price? Other than that we're on the same page.

At this time, I agree with you; gold is overbought, the dollar is oversold and we should be waiting for these two conditions to work themselves off through a retreat in gold / rally in $usd OR a sideways chop in both. I have no idea, but taking profits wouldn't be a dumb thing to do. Or maybe I should say that buying anything that is overbought is a higher risk buy and I tend to shy away from higher risk buys.

Got any pineapple liqueur to share around the generator?

Craig,
I see you plan on an account at Interactive Broker. Does that allow you to trade electronically on the Toronto exchange from the US? (i.e. no phone calls to the International desk at Fido or local office of Scottrade?)

mebea,
I assume that you're young, (new graduate, new job). Its a time of life to take risk - you'll have plenty of time to recover from your mistakes. Use debt to leverage investments, not to buy goodies, so pay off all debt that has usurious rates like credit cards. In "normal" circumstances, I would say get the max mortgage on any real estate you buy, but for the next few years you may be better off renting. Above all, make sure you can sleep with any position you take.

Thought folks would like a UK view, from MoneyWeek.com (you can sign up for a free email):

The Bank of England was only ever going to be independent for as long as it was doing what the boss wanted. And for ten years, it did. Interest rates were kept nice and low, driving a housing-fuelled consumer boom and maintaining that crucial ’feel-good’ factor. The Bank's apparent distance from politicians also lent a shiny patina of integrity to the whole affair.

Recently however, Mervyn King has had an attack of principles. He clearly decided that if you keep letting the financial system off the hook, then no one will ever learn that taking risks is risky. Keep doing it, and eventually banker will be taking savers’ money down to the local casino and whacking it on red or black, safe in the knowledge that taxpayers will bail them out.

But we all know what usually happens to people in power who take principled stances on political issues.

They get fired...

Mervyn King is under attack. He’s been accused of flip-flopping all over the place on this banking crisis. First he wouldn’t let Lloyds TSB buy Northern Rock, then he offered to lend them some money, then the government offered to lend it an unlimited amount of the public’s money.

Now Mr King has also decided to pump money into the three-month money market. That’s the one that’s been frozen over in recent months, causing all the trouble in the banking sector - although arguably, there had been signs of the problems abating now that the Northern Rock queues have vanished. It’s something of a U-turn on his previous policy stance that flooding the system with liquidity “encourages excessive risk taking and sows the seeds of a future financial crisis.”

And more than a few people suspect that the government may have had a bit of a role in nudging Mr King in the ‘right’ direction.

“This has the dead hand of the Treasury all over it,” said Danny Gabay, an ex-Bank official to The Telegraph.

Still, that’s politics for you. Bernard Connolly of Banque AIG’s words on the Northern Rock crisis summed up the whole situation beautifully. “The government guarantee of Northern Rock deposits accepts a political reality: once a Ponzi scheme has reached a certain point, risk has to be socialised.”

In this context, by socialised, he basically means nationalised. The entire Anglo-Saxon economy - possibly the global economy, if you account for the fact that China’s economic miracle relies a great deal on selling Americans cheap goods - is a Ponzi scheme built on houses. US and UK consumers borrowed increasing amounts of money that many of them couldn’t afford to repay, driving up the prices of already overvalued houses. These bad debts were sold all the way through the financial system, and that realisation is what made banks seize up and stop lending.

Now the governments in the UK and to a very great extent in the US have declared that they will carry the can for any fall-out. That means banks will keep lending and the great Ponzi scheme will continue.

What’ll happen in the end? After the Japanese bust in the early 1990s, the government had to effectively nationalise the banks, which would otherwise have collapsed under the weight of their own bad debts. That was nearly 20 years ago and Japan is still lying in the recovery position.

Could the same thing happen here? History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes, as Mark Twain roughly put it. We may not be turning Japanese, but the outcome of encouraging easy lending is never pretty. And we may never ever have seen a bubble as big or as entrenched in the economy in the past as this one - which suggests that the bust, when it comes, may be equally big.

Apologies for the double post - fat fingers :-(
Here's a link to a nice summary about ways to buy gold (Kaimu, you can safely ignore it):
http://tinyurl.com/3777x4
and here's something from Resource Investor about a huge comex short position in silver:
http://tinyurl.com/35pst4
Thanks for info on IBKR

mebea- "It's finding the 400k to move and shake that might take some time."

even with the usual obstacles and mistakes along the way, won't take as long as you think. i was a college dropout in the seventies (worked hard at jazz piano and writing, but the effort was of little avail..my dad, a professor in Ann Arbor at the time, and i hardly talked to each other back then, now lives minutes away and dotes on the little one)..finally got it together in the eighties and drove out to the bay area in 1990 in a beat-up toyota with a negative net worth...exactly 13 years later, wife and i were able to celebrate a 7 figure net worth, although to be honest that does not count for much in northern california...we did it without making much more than the median income for a professional family, saving as much as possible, and buying real estate when we could...still drive a toyota (not the same one ;) of course), still borrow books from the library, and still prefer dinner at home whenever possible...had a good time in the seventies, but having a better time working 9-5, watching the kids grow up, and writing/playing music for my ears only...you really don't need to spend more than a few hours each month planning your financial future-it's not rocket science, as bill likes to say...

This may be old news to some but i just discovered this data and was startled by it so i thought i would post it.

GFI's short position in August nearly doubled. I can't imagine what the shorts were thinking as the majority of the PGM's that i follow saw decresaes in their short positions in August.

GFI $ 17.94
Gold Fields Ltd. 0.52
Shares Short 11,525,200
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 2.1
Short % of Float 2.90 %
Shares Short - Prior 5,859,300
Short % Increase / Decrease 96.70 %
Squeeze Ranking™ -0
% from 52-Wk HIGH ( 20.70 ) -15.38 %
% from 52-Wk LOW ( 13.31 ) 25.81 %
% from 200-Day MA ( 16.94 ) 5.57 %
% from 50-Day MA ( 15.50 )
13.60 %
Price % Change (52-Wk) -0.80 %
Trading Volume - Today 9,234,796
Trading Volume - Average 5,446,400
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 169.56 %
Total Shares - Float 397,360,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 650,405,008
% Held by Insiders 25.28 %
% Held by Institutions 22.50 %
Market Cap 11,668,265,844
EPS 0.54
PE Ratio 32.30
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
SI Record Date 2007-Aug

Incidentally, I believe the AMEX and NYSE come out with their short statistics for the AUg 15 -Sept 15 period tomorrow. This should give us some insight as to whether the big players used the Aug drop to cover their short bets. I bet many have been shorting the recovery waiting for another shoe to drop. Will be intersting data for sure! I'll post it here unless someone else posts it first.
Take care,
BRendan

Cyderman,
Yes, IB allows you to trade many platforms online (no phone calls) also options, forex, etc.
Also pays a decent % on MM accts.

For those interested in Inflation: Watched Kudlow for a laugh and to see Doug Kass debate Brian Westbury about the mkts.

Kudlow's two to one set argued there is no inflation, some horseshit about how cloting and shoes are down and the moron says he has 7 kids and buys shoes all the time. How many shoes could anyone buy compared to food, fuel and toilet paper? This was the guy that tried to argue saving a few hundred bucks on a flatscreen TV made up for the price of food and fuel. My question is, for how long? In my world, about 5 tanks of gas. TOILET PAPER you say? YES. What this analysts head is apparently filled with.

Remember, it's the NECESSITIES that have pricing power.

My wife and I go to the store tonight for a few things, milk, toilet paper and some nail polish remover. I head over to the TP dept. and see our brand has a "new" package....wait a minute I think to myself.....

Sure enough, for the big pack of 12 double rolls the new package has 475 Sq Ft of tissue, the "old" packages, hidden beneath the new ones, have 100 Sq ft more tissue than the "new" package. The bastards are too dishonest to just raise the price, they shrink the content instead.

Who are you gonna believe, Kudlow and his idiot ideologue guests, or your lying eyes?

Long term, inflation is here for a while.
Gold and TP say so.

Folks,

You have got to see this video...it explains everything.

http://thinkprogress.org/2007/09/20/bush-econ101/

Craig: yesterday you wrote:
Interesting historic graphic on Bloomberg.
Shows gold rising for 30 days after a fed cut then falling, ending down in the 5 mos following. Shows the exact inverse for USD, falling in the first 30 days and then gaining (5%) 6 mos after the cut.

Where can I find that chart?

Craig,

Watching candy bar, potato chips, and cereal price's vs oz's received over the last 5 years has been an education...add these to your list for a real shocker. Especially Snicker's bars.

Best,

The CoinGuy

P.S. Haven't been able to get the Marc Faber interview, anyone have a link that works?

Here is the daily gold price chart for major currencies:

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/dailyshort2000.html

If we are in a 'bubble' for gold, we are quite sincerely on the extreme left shoulder prior to a 5X markup in the ensuing years. The longterm HUI looks even more like a nascent bubble, not unlike the Nasdaq or Real Estate.

I have posted many examples, but this one is probably the most cogent, if only now and futures would fill the void and put emerging markets in right after housing:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/real_estate1.jpg

Bullion prices could be in the early stage of something very similar.

Going to bed. Will probably get up too late for Bill's morning report.

If anyone wants a daliance in a junior gold company, then Golden Band Resources (GBN.V) had a trading halt today. Watch for the open tomorrow, could be a trading opportunity. Drill results to follow, although May rallies are usually the strongest.

"People with jobs should focus on keeping those jobs, and not taking career risks until the economic environment improves."

I'm actually on the brink of quitting law in a high paying international law firm and running my own investment adviser company. The California state authorities just approved my application today. I have no clients, though I have 5-10 potential clients who have been waiting for me to receive approval. I know this is a highly risk move in a highly risky environment. I know I can generate good percentages in the coming recession. I don't know if I can get enough assets under management to making a living doing this.

I dread having to continue in law, though I know it is the "safe" move, like money in a CD in a bank. But I don't think it is the right move. I keep thinking about spiritual leaders who remind us that when we advance confidently in the direction of our dreams and endeavor to live the life we have imagined, we will meet with a success unexpected in common hours.

I know there are many experienced professionals here. I appreciate any wisdom you may have about this.

Milk and cookies 2:45 am.

ALOHA !!

Novice ... I feel your pain because I was once in your position. What is most difficult is to let go of something tangible in exchange for an intangible. Every month you get a paycheck then all of a sudden its gone and you're on your own with no immediate income and living off savings and/or credit and NO SAFETY NET! No more sick leave ... no mental health day ... no paid vacations ... no health benefits ... no perks ... no business car ... NO SAFETY NET! Change is stressful ... but the stress can be minimized simply by "timing". I do not know much about your situation but I stayed on at my paid job until I knew I was close to producing income on my own. Sometimes that is not a possibility and sometimes there are ethics involved.

As I have said in the past I was fed up with making other people money while I was handed peanuts! When I left the company I was working for I became very successful within a couple years and caused my ex-employers a great deal of pain and hardship. Not because it was intentional but because we were both bidding public works projects in the same niche. After all they trained me! What they did not expect was how I worked the Surety biz to qualify for bidding larger contracts so fast.

You know you are stating already that it is not the "right move" for you. When it is the "right move" that thought will not even appear in your mind. I had so much confidence in myself and my business partner that the thought never entered our minds when we started. In our minds we were the best of the best and we could not wait to prove it! That was our attitude ... We had some hard times at first but for the most part we just powered through them and made it happen! You have to have that vision that you will succeed no matter what. You have to back that vision with the foot work and action needed to be successful. Just a "vision" is not enough on its own ...

It also helps to have an entrepenuerial background. Most people in my family owned their own successful businesses. I grew up working in family businesses. They were examples to me and I looked up to them as a role model. I started my first successful import/export business as a teenager in Australia. The basis of that business was taking advantage of "price points" and "currency rates" ... Kind of odd because I was trading successfully on a weak dollar back then(1970). Even though I had to let go of it(moved back to the USA)I learned from it and moved on.

Let go of fantasies also ... I have put a lot of hours into the businesses I have had. I still do! If you think you'll work less and be rich you've got the wrong mindset. If your sole purpose is to be RICH then in my opinion that is a red flag for failure! I mean I know tons of wealthy people who started businesses from nothing and worked their asses off night and day for most of their lives. Some because they loved it and some because they had to! They never started out to be "BIG & RICH"! That came later ... but only with smarts and a lot of hard work!

I heard that there is going to be a takeover bid for Pinetree Captial for $860 million. Have you heard anything, is this true? thanks