From Adam Fergusson's book When Money Dies:

Most of them clung to the mark, the currency they knew and believed in, long after the eleventh hour had come round for the umpteenth time. Most had no choice; but all were encouraged or bemused by the Reichsbank's creed of "Mark gleich Mark" -- paper or gold, a mark is a mark is a mark. If prices went up, people demanded not a stable purchasing power for the marks they had, but more marks to buy what they needed. More marks were printed, and more, and more.

On the question of gold, my bullish stance is old hat by now, but that does not take anything away from my excitement to keep riding this profitable play. For my money the relative outperformance of gold versus the Dow Jones Industrial Index (and most mature-market equities) is a primary trend that is not about to be reversed in a hurry. (Short-term counter-trend movements are, however, quite likely from time to time.)

Please click the link below for a few interesting graphs:
http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/09/19/gold-bullion-showing-dow-a-clean-pair-of-heels/

Last night's reading of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest:

"As of Tuesday night, the HSNSI stood at just 17.4%."

http://tinyurl.com/ypn5nh

That's the best news I could have had this morning...will be looking for ST opportunities on the long side...

green arrow- 6.7% one day return on GS- nice work ;)

Unbelieveable.

24 Hours ago I believed that Bernanke had some balls and would do the right thing.

I was wrong.

Ok, fine and well. I was hedged and ready, and while it stung a bit, I'll live to trade another day, and so will my account.

Am I buying this rally? No. Why not? Because the Bond Market "gets it"; the yield curve steepened, and overnight both 10s and 30s ticked up on yield. Up? Yes, up.

But wait - didn't the Fed cut rates?

It would appear that a few people are going to get a reality lesson - the Fed doesn't set interest rates. The Market does, and The Market - the Bond Market - doesn't like what happened yesterday.

Another shot of heroin for the credit junkies is very likely to blow up in some people's face, and in ways they will not like. How soon? Difficult to know. The VIX dropped 23%, showing that "fear" pretty much disappeared instantly.

Well-founded?

No.

The Recession is still coming, but now it will be accompanied with punishing inflation. The risk of capital flight went up precipitously, the Bond Market will not allow any break for mortgage rates to reach the market and in fact mortgage rates may go UP, not DOWN.

I've also got the 2001 intermeeting rate cut as history to look at. Cutting rates into a weakening economy doesn't prevent the weakness from being expressed, does produce a short-term market rally, but the hangover from that fix of the drugs you so desperately want shortly - within a month or two - comes back and destroys your account, especially if you are dumb enough to trade into it on the long side.

No thank you.

What Bernanke has shown yesterday is that expecting The Fed to look at all the data and say "uh, we're teetering on the edge here, we have to force withdrawal on the junkie even if he screams and whines" isn't going to happen under this Fed chairman.

This means that as investors we now are left with a horrifying reality - that inflation be damned, the dollar be damned, The Junkie can scream for a fix and he will get it - even if it means that inflation comes roaring back, the dollar is destroyed and foreign investors who are now staring at a nearly 10% loss due to dollar debasement flee the United States before the Dollar goes to 40!

All we can do now is try to make enough to stay ahead of the destruction of our purchasing power that Bernanke has just served upon us, and pray that foreigners will not walk off in disgust.

Oh, and brace yourself for a reply on the 1970s. You rememeber them, don't you?

If you're not old enough to, don't worry - you'll get to live it.

For those of us who do remember, well..... dust off that Jimmy Carter sweater.

In the comments to Nouriel Roubini's blog last night there was a very interesting cite of an article by Mish Shedlock suggesting that the Fed has NOT been printing money like mad. A different measure M' is also discussed, which evidently has a much better track record for predicting recessions. He feels that comparisons to the Weimar Republic are completely off base. He has several graphs which suggest graphically--pardon the pun--that we are being misled by concentrating on shadow-stats such as we have done looking at M3.

Given that this whole question is extremely relevant for the decline of the dollar, the price of gold, etc, I would certainly like to hear some discussion of this topic. At times it takes some time for new ideas to filter into peoples' perceptions, but if they have merit they seem to eventually affect trading.

As for me, I am completely ignorant and all I can do is just read things to at least see two sides to whatever I'm struggling to understand. This article at least provides some counterpoint to the accepted 'story'. Any time someone throws up a graph on a screen, I have a tendency to believe they know what they are talking about. I'm beginning to really see the point of Plato's Allegory of the Cave! What's worse is that in this financial market cave, the images are designed to separate me from my money. Long live paranoia!

Here is the URL:

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=4744

(I don't know how to make URLs be clickable.)

Interesting historic graphic on Bloomberg.
Shows gold rising for 30 days after a fed cut then falling, ending down in the 5 mos following.

Shows the exact inverse for USD, falling in the first 30 days and then gaining (5%) 6 mos after the cut.

Colin Twigs free email today was excellent. He very succinctly summed up the rate hike and future impact to markets. I won't post it here because I don't want to step on anyone's toes; however, if Bill could post it I think it will be a good simplistic explanation (for us simpletons) of the longer term impact on the markets. It is just reinforcement to what we read here on a daily basis.

I'm not really a day trader, but it sure is tempting to sell into this mornings ramp up. Hard to believe that we won't see some sort of a pullback over the next couple of days as the other realities of the economy set in.

The yield curve had to steepen, didn't it. Who wants US dollars 5 years down the road? The bond market is saying that the price of long-term commitment to the US dollar is a higher interest rate.

bb:

Remember the Buffett Standard (BS) of 26% Bill has discussed at length here for profit margins decisions. Last May I didn't put it into practice and waited forever it seems to be rewarded for the risk, this time I won't wait and started yesterday.

Noront- symbol for trading in the US > NOSOF..

EWJ- buying post-announcement probably a no-brainer..thought about it, didn't do it...

went long MU (Cara 100 in the AZ) and AMD on the announcement...

Genesis, thank you for your enlightening post. I actually do know Canadians who are no longer investing in the US market because they only lose money. That the DJIA or SPY go up is a a bit of a fallacy.

cb refers to Twigg's newsletter. Its title is "Dousing the flames with gasoline".

gs up 1.5% pre-mkt, lend up 18% pre-mkt...hov still moving in the "right" direction...

Bill,
Just a short note of Thanks for the excellent calls on TM, WMT, and of course the PM's and miners. All proof of concept.

Good stuff.
Built positions on the lows and now looking quite nice.

Thanks again. Please enjoy the vacation with your lovely wife. She shouldn't be swimming by herself.....and I think you've got a shot if you work at it!

UNG- edging in at 38.84

opening a position in HERO at 28.50...check out the insider buying...

Yes folks, I did stay in GSS, didn't panic out though I intentionally disregarded stops 'cause I knew Ben was gonna help gold. This AM is the best no-brainer day
I've seen so far in this BZ.

looking for a little excitement-NFI at 8.75...i don't think short-covering on this one has gotten serious yet...

I've read mish's stuff as well, and he seems to have a pretty thorough understanding of the material. If I understand it correctly, M3 is a measure of all money including credit. And while rapidly increasing credit is inflationary (more money in peoples pockets as they refinance, buys cars on loan, etc). However credit can evaporate pretty quickly with lenders unwilling to lend, or consumers unwilling/unable to borrow. When this happens, he argues deflation will be the bigger concern.

I can't remember what exactly M' represents, I think currency in circulation, deposits, and other more tangible currency items.

I guess the theory is that M' items will persist even after any credit crunch or recession, thus are truly inflationary. I.e. double the currency in circulation and it will always be there. Whereas significantly less of doubled outstanding credit will be left after a credit crunch.

Think of it this way, how much money has been added to M3 as a result of the housing boom? And what if house prices drop 30%? Certainly M3 will stop growing and possibly shrink.

It's an interesting argument, and I definitely agree that consumers are probably getting to the point where it is becoming difficult to continue taking on more debt. But I think that even M3/credit growth is inflationary, so maybe it just operates with a lag...

CFC- short squeeze is on...doesn't matter if it gets to 25 or not..if you're short, that's what you have to be thinking...

Bill,

To use the jockey metaphor, besides the microcap 100 any other services you'll be at the rein?

p.s Karl is a minch, a gentleman and scholar.

Took a little off the table this AM.
I had a pretty large percentage of the port in PM's and assoc. holdings and I was setup to buy even more on yesterday's announcement, so it really went my way. Bought large instantly on hearing 50 pts. Best to not look this gift horse in the mouth. Still have a larger allocation to gold, silver, miners than usual.

The idea of using ads to support this board seems like a great idea. It must be expensive to run and I for one don't want to see it disappear.

Jasper,
Did you mean to call Karl a mensch (a decent and good person)?

Craig, Brave man to buy post announcement. Instant buy must have helped. Congrats.

What is your allocation to pm and related holdings..if you don't mind my asking?

Personally, I feel that it's ok to have a huge allocation as long as one has an exit and replacement plan. I know an asset mgr that has a mechanical system for doing this. He has about 7 asset classes, low correlation, including cash, among which he switches. More than a few pensions are under his management. I'm willing to do this, but to do so in combination with other strategies.

Bill has provided great-straightforward-no-follow-the herd- guidance. It does surprise me that so many went to the sidelines en total after the last moderate up in the last week prior to this big move.

If Bill was managing an allocation of pm's in the past few months, I wonder if he would share how he would have used portfolio management with the pm's through out the ups and downs, all the while expressing some conviction about xau.

I sold my original holding of GFI some weeks ago as well as KGC. Both seniors that are already in EZA/s.africa but this morning I went back to get gfi. Bill confirms its fundamentals and it's a laggard with possibly under appreciated value. In a longer term chart, doesn't look like I'm chasing.

Only full position holds now are wgdff,slw,uxg, and smaller positions in hmy (laggard making good), iag, and tiny position in grz...not sure what to do with that one.

FT's John Dizard noted that bank-motivated changes to bankruptcy law will favor banks vs. hedge and private equity funds. "repo...and other counterparty agreements... are exempt from the stays under the bankruptcy laws". Offshore will not protect the funds, nor mark-to-model. The banks' valuations will count. After default notices, the banks will pick up a lot of undervalued assets at investors' expense.

PS: I'm canceling Rupert's WSJ to read FT more thoroughly. FT has done MUCH better reporting the credit crisis.

Fred,
Mensch....yep, my ignorance

Jasper,
I didn't think I was brave, 50 basis pts had to kill USD and kick PM's in the pants. I felt like a 6 year old on Xmas morning. It was way better than I expected (which was to hold at 5.25%). I couldn't believe what I was hearing.

My allocation now is 15%, but yesterday was VERY high after the announcement....near 50%.

I held AUY, GDX, GFI, GLD, UXG and WGDFF. Now more manageable positions in GLD, GDX and WGDFF.
SLW in the IRA as I think silver has to catch-up.

If we get some temp strength in USD and a dip in PM's I would reload some, perhaps to 20-25% in light of further fed cuts, but it has to come to me. I'm not getting caught chasing like I did in August....that hurt me after I had such good timing getting out before the correction. Too aggressive. I got clobbered by GRS and took a loss on that one. GFI helped immensely and will again on pullbacks as range trading it has been pretty good for me.

Now I feel centered again with a more normal allocation.

Jasper,
No worries. It's a beautiful accolade and, in my opinion, the highest praise that one can confer on another.

Below is a link to the Fauld's "camp map" that Bill shared with us. I was able to zoom this one.
http://tinyurl.com/2dlgzo

HL broke out of a rising triangle on the daily yesterday. I came within a mouse click of doubling my position ahead of the Fed announcement. Of course, I regret it now.

Now I have a target of $8.92, where it meets a longer-term downtrend line.

I'm also enjoying the ride in SLW and WGDFF.

I closed the rest of my home builder shorts over the past 24 hours. We may have had a trend reversal. This is looking like the same B.S. we went through last year. This time, however, I won't fight the tape.

2nd, do you get real time data on NOT?
If you do, where?

Just got out of GSS for awhile, 3.63

Craig,
There's been a trading halt on NOT since September 14th.

McFauld's plays FWR, HUI and BMK all getting annihilated right now. Down 23 to 40%.

Noront (NOT) is active again. Trading around $3.00 cdn. Below is news release.
http://tinyurl.com/2h7myd

So last week Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said it was opposed to emergency 3-month liquidity injections because it would encourage "risky behavior". This week King threw in the towel on that statement and said the Bank will make $20 Billion in 3-month loans next week. Previously, the Bank had said it would not provide additional help for troubled financial institutions and then 2 days later it agreed to bailout mortgage lender Northern Rock Plc.

Both instances hurt the credibility of the Bank. Just like Chairman Bernanke throwing in the towel on rates. He's cut the discount rate by 1% in 4 weeks. Central bank policy has morphed into economic growth at any cost. All these reflationary responses to turmoil in the money markets sow the seeds of higher inflation in the future. In the meantime, the panicked Fed has clearly signalled that it and the Administration do not care about the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. They do not care about the domestic value of the dollar (its value relative to gold) and they do not care about the international value of the dollar (relative to the euro). Over the next 3-5 years this policy of benign neglect of the dollar will come back to haunt the Fed. At some point the Fed will have to respond to the crashed dollar by hiking interest rates. Eventually when short-term rates become too high, equities will crash in a meltdown more severe than 1987 or 1929. The ensuing debt deflation will be like none we've ever seen. Only when the Fed develops operating policies that truly protect the domestic and international value of the dollar will Americans be free of the current boom-bust cycles caused by the Fed's rate cut emergency response system.

Fred, If you bought at 3.00 you've made what heck of a good return already.

re" gfi...holding up well today:

OTTAWA, ONTARIO, Sep 19, 2007 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Orezone Resources Inc. (OZN) is pleased to announce an increase in the NI 43-101 compliant gold resources of the Essakane Main Zone "EMZ" in Burkina Faso, West Africa. The updated mineral resource estimate has been submitted to Orezone by Gold Fields Essakane Limited (BVI) ("Gold Fields"), a subsidiary of Gold Fields Limited and the holder of a 60% equity interest in the Essakane Project. Based on a 0.5g/t cutoff grade, the total Indicated resources in the EMZ now amount to 4.0Moz gold contained in 78.4Mt at an average grade of 1.58g/t (see Table 1). This represents an increase of 18% from the previous estimate of 3.4Moz announced in April 2007. Inferred resources have increased by 200,000oz

Jim is right. My plan: hold PM's until the USD gets close to bottom, buy lots of USD (or the reserve Euro) with preserved purchasing power of gold, and stash LT in the "new" ultra-high interest rate instruments that will pop up as they did in the 70's/80's.
Make high interest income and retire to a foreign country where the standard of living will be rising as the US falls. The Bahamas sound nice.

The bubble this time is clearly in the emerging markets, so this is likely to be accompanied with a systemic crisis in the country where it starts, along with a forex problem. (this would not preclude a complete breakdown of international settlements)

Make no mistake, this credit breakdown is far more serious than people are willing to recognize, and has every wart and feature of past eras of systemic risk in history. Its not unusual for central banks to bail out mortgage lenders, commercial banks, investment houses, etc - the thing people are missing is that its all coming together at once.

A beautiful three stage bull market/mania is building up on the Hang Seng:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHSI&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

The beautiful thing about the Hang Seng is that its course illustrates the progression of major financial crises in the last 20 years.

Here is an area where investors are unlikely to acknowledge a three stage bull market ending in mania:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EXOI&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=

How about this one:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

N2son, reference HL, don’t know if you saw the recent positive article last weekend

The negative cash cost to produce silver last year at Lucky Friday mine (negative $.72 an oz) and at Kennecott Juneau (negative $3.47 an oz).

Labor shortage and the workers are well paid; “hard-rock miners at the Lucky Friday will make between $80,000 and $100,000 each this year.”

http://tinyurl.com/3xgrjt

In other news, HL recently filed S-3 registration statement allowing company to sell common stock from time to time.

Disclosure: long position in HL with a similar target.

Jasper,
No, I didn't buy NOT at $3.00. I've got bids for small amounts in for NOT, FWR and BMK near their daily lows. There is insanity in these plays and they are really too hot for me.

Thanks Bill and all who comment here. I held GFI,GLD,WGDFF,SLW through some doubtful times. And yesterday made some good gains! I begin to see that no matter how much I would like to think of myself as an agile trader I am not one. Yesterday was a busy workday and I forgot!!! to “trade the plan” and pull the trigger on my short etf's, SRS and SKF. While that did not wipe out my gains it has definitely lessened them.
So, to the Cara Community I pose this question. Do I double down and buy more ETF’s based on the sneaking suspicion that all is not fixed in the real estate market nor in the financial markets? I would like to keep the PM’s as a counter to the dollar decline but…and this is a big BUT, I don’t have much of a portfolio and am earning less so can ill afford losses.
Any comments are appreciated. As said by others, the comment section is the best education available.
To Bill, tip jar, subscription, or an address to mail you a check…just tell us Cap’n an you will see the return on your efforts perhaps exceeding your expectations. Though I know that’s not why you are doing it.
Peace from North Whidbey Island, WA.
Gray

Still can't get a tick on NOT from Scottrade, you have to call the office.
WAY too volatile to trade/invest without realtime data and charts, not to mention the fee.

Are you all still loving Interactive Brokers?
It would be nice to have access to "foreign" exchanges like Canada....LOL!

Photo,

If you can ill afford losses, I think you shouldn't be in the stock market. A CD or Treasury money market fund would be a better choice.

Photogray,
I'm not a trader either...so the way I feel about the double shorts is that I would only use them in one of two ways:
An x% to hedge port...kind of insurance and smoothing the ride. Hold time could be long.
While in cash, a deliberate attempt to make money in a down mkt. Entry is part of an existing plan....never tempted because of boogie man buzz...charts, not buzz, will make the decisions. Hold time will be short and tied to a mechanical exit. In general, shorting is a hard way to make money.

I've held UTS for a pretty good gain, a lot of which (14%) was lopped off today thanks to an Alberta Oil & Gas royalty review report released today. This is impacting almost all O&G companies operating in the region.

Here's the Reuters news release:

http://tinyurl.com/2jyylz

Here's the link to the Alberta govt page from where you can get the complete report:

http://tinyurl.com/2sn64v

It's just a review, and AB gov will react to it in October. Being a tax payer in AB I have mixed feelings about this, but mostly unhappy. Seems like a mildly Chavez'esque move.

And to compare Alberta's royalty regime to other 'major producing' countries is ridiculous. Exactly what other major producing countries are the refering to? Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Russia? Apples and oranges to some extent if you ask me...

In the end I doubt the govt will do anything to harsh, but who knows...

As Jasper notes, it's hard to make $ shorting.
I don't unless it's a pretty sure thing, which limits upside too, and I either sit on it like a broody hen or I use a stop to kick me out in the event Mr. Market turns on me.

Another idea would be to use the one to one short ETF's instead of the double inverse, as that double inverse can be a double edged sword if left to itself.

You can be in the market, but you MUST automate then.

2nd ave. I'm a little worried that MU has not been following the SMH lately. Any thoughts??

Dab

Photo

The key to successful investing is proper position size related to your financial circumstances. Your comment "Do I double down and buy more ETF’s based on the sneaking suspicion that all is not fixed in the real estate market nor in the financial markets?" Investing on suspicion or what ought to happen is very dangerous. Use the skills and trading methods that Bill has outlined on this blog a gazillion times. You will eliminate making trading decisions based on suspicion, hope, greed etc. The method tells the story. Stick with the plan and you will always be ahead of the game. Believe me I have done everyone of the above and paid for it.

Just my two cents

craig- can't get a quote for NOT (NOSOF) via Fidelity...

dipping into CFC/HOV 20.59/13.11 on the long side and keeping it small...

MU- the rodney dangerfield of the SMH ;)

Wdgff is a 2 dollar stock...it hasn't doubled yet, any thoughts on why not.v was a 2 dollar stock that doubled overnight?
I went to tsx website...wgi does have more shares, 90odd vs 117oddmillion.

3.60 looks to be holding firm on not. Does look to be insane.

2nd..i'm at fido too
have to call the international desk
877 544 2976

tsx may help too

Bill,

You cannot be paying the cost of your blog. It's enough that
you created it and contribute to it daily.

If it's easy to get advertisers -- you don't need another job -- I'm happy to look and and possibly even respond to ads.

On the other hand, I also feel that we, who get so much from your blog, should "pay our way". An annual subscriber fee, perhaps?

Tell us. DON'T BE SHY!!

GemmaStar

2nd, what would be a reason for going long on HOV, specially after the tremendous jump/squeeze yesterday and it being in a broken sector? I bought some puts on it this morning, also on XLF and IWM, but keeping a close eye for quick exit.

Anyone have interested in shorting FMT. It looks like it has had a shortqueeze, and will be returning to negative territory relatively soon. There is a class action lawsuit that was filed against this company on sept 17th.

"Gloom, Doom or Boom? Analysis of the Global Economic Expansion" by Marc Faber, Frank Holmes, and Evan Smith

http://www.usfunds.com/webcast/GloomDoomBoom/GloomDoomBoom.pdf

Those tracking the McFauld's play will also want to look at Fancamp Explorations (FNC). I have no position in any McFauld's miners.

While SPX is up about 3% since FOMC's 50 basis points cut yesterday, BSC is now trading back down to where it was just prior to the FOMC announcement.

SiO2- keep in mind ALL my trades are based on (my reading of) investor psychology...i really can't come up with good reasons to be buying much on any other basis...just thought HOV had dropped to a point where either those who missed the train might want to try getting on, or maybe shorts who were too traumatized this morning and now taking a second look might want to cover...that's it...

Bill,
There is absolutely nothing wrong with a tip jar (preferably with PayPal option). We all owe you for this extremely informative blog. After all you help us preserve our capital why can't we help you preserve it at least a little bit ;-)

I have to play. Bought a little Fancamp (FNC) and Freewest (FWR) just before the close.

Bill,

I, too, would like to contribute to defraying expense of this immensely valuable community exchange. Perhaps resistance you are hearing is responding to the notion of a 'tip jar'.

Open-source software communities use a variety of payment mechanisms, many of which are voluntary. While they may occasionally be called 'tip jars', I see such payments as fostering the initiative of others who help to resolve common problems and provide useful tools to a wide community.

I have gained much from the community gathered at your blog, both financially and intellectually (dare I speak of pedagogical treasures?). I would welcome opportunity to share my own profits in the interest of helping to foster and sustain our mutual interests. In no way would I be tipping anyone. As with open-source software it is simply a nuanced and flexible model of sustaining community.

Maybe instead of 'tip jar' we could refer to any payments as 'parity shares'. Many here contribute useful information; many others, such as myself, absorb far more than they contribute. I would welcome a way to bring my stake up to 'parity' with contributions of others. I suspect there are many others who would similarly contribute at least a token of the profit they've gained.

Paypal is very convenient to use for such purposes. I hope you'll implement such an option.

"Henry Paulson told the U.S. Congress on Wednesday the government will hit the current debt ceiling on Oct. 1. He sought quick action to increase the limit, saying it was essential to protect the "full faith and credit" of the country, especially at a time of financial market turmoil.

The limit is US$8.965 trillion. Unless the U.S. Congress votes to raise it, the country would be unable to borrow more money to keep the government operating and to pay debt obligations coming due."

From http://tinyurl.com/2qol3z (I am sure Kaimu will enjoy this one.)

I have a different idea,

Let's build this site into a net powerhouse of grassroots stock-talk, and figure out how to monetize it and make you another fortune. Juggling the perfection of form and the mechanism of monetization is the next challenge. This could be so much more than just your retirement plaything.

The trick is to give people something that's worth much more than it costs.

Right now we have a very unformed shape. Sorting the info better and qualifying it will help identify it's value. But I do imagine a situation in which picks can be made by a "team" or "team members" whose track records are established, and those trades can be shadowed by others. If a methodology can be employed to know who tends to be right when, the perhaps, if as a group we start doing 50, 75 percent, people will gladly pay for the info, and we team members will gladly collect our cut!

Bill,

I meant that the commentary section is unformed. Your daily and weekly charts and interpretation are in perfectly orderly form. I simply envision that to create the kind of value I'm talking about, people need to be able to follow along as they learn to think along, while hopefully making a few bucks more than they're spending.

Fred --

I couldn't find HUI, neither with .v or .to after it. Could it have a different symbol? -

Jock,

The link below is Google listing for Hawk.
http://tinyurl.com/29vuvn

"Hawk holds approximately 2.6 million shares of MacDonald Mines Exploration Limited (TSX VENTURE: BMK), which company is carrying out an active exploration program in the McFaulds Lake area of the James Bay Lowlands, the site of a new potential VMS base metal play."

The link below is the Hawk company website.
http://tinyurl.com/yw7mww

Jock,
FWIW, I'm passing on HUI and will play FWR, FNC and BMK. I will also play NOT if it comes back a bit. They're all on the CVE.

I'm leaving Hawk alone because:
1. It is not a direct play on McFauld's.
2. It is into uranium, which I don't like.
3. Trading volume is relatively small.

Fred - Thanks. HUI has 2.6M of the 76M shares of MacDonald Mines, plus a grab bag of properties in various locations.

Bill.. I see in your post to Peter about how he was putting words in your mouth. I assume then that you still think we have entered a cyclical bear and have likely seen the highs? I believe you have said this in the past. It seems the animal spirits have arisen again and I was just curious how you see the various probabilities on this thing playing out. I have traded a number of years myself, and am very aware of the importance of knowing your timeframe as well as the importance of adjusting your view of the situation as things progress.

Of inner circle and social equity.

``Maybe our boy has righted the ship,'' Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder, said of Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

Bloomberg (http://tinyurl.com/3xmzjx) Via Mish (http://tinyurl.com/2qk4hp)

If beggars dare call a man who preserves (temporarily at least) their residual fortune by such demeaning epithet, Wall Street big shots will probably dive too cruder depths and bestow their new puppet a befitting nickname.

Toll (and his little brother Hovnanian who seems to live on CNBC as permanent guest) needs to learn that discretion and respect are hallmark of true power and influence.

JML

Fascinating discussion with the Maestro.
Sept. 18, 2007
http://npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14537573

http://tinyurl.com/28jy3t

Fred,

are you just spreading your investment equally across FNC, FWR and BMK or have you been able to gather any info to date that makes one look better than the others?

Thanks.

brendan,
thanks for the link. As you say, fascinating. I just wish the interviewer had followed up his comments about central bankers trying to emulate the gold standard with "why not go back to the real thing?"

bb,
It's a total crap shoot. FNC and FWR are essentially right in Noront's footprint. BMK is a little further away. All three companies have small valuations FNC ($39 million), FWR ($32 million)and BMK ($24 million). I bought equal dollar amounts of FWR at $0.24 and FNC at $1.58. I will buy an equal holding of BMK if it drops to $0.26. These things could drop or rise 50% on any given day right now. The two that I bought were 50% to 60% off of their high for the day! I'm betting 1% of my portfolio on each. Hope this helps.

Saudi Arabia to break USD peg?

http://tinyurl.com/3cp9jq

Thanks Fred, I was thinking something similar, but probably slightly smaller bets.

Hey Bill: I don't have time right now to look for the comment I was referring to, but over the weekend I will take the time to look for the post and reference it.

I apologize for making the comment without reference and understand your issue.