Reposting from last night, version 1.0 is out! There are two sheet tabs of the spreadsheet for use, "Cara 100 RSI Values" and "Under the Microscope". The file below contains the add-ins and a read-me file for instructions. It's been a pleasure working with Quentusrex on this:

Alright everyone. Here's the update that at least some of you have been waiting for. Here is the link to Version 1.0 of the Cara100 Excel Spreadsheet by Quentusrex and Hoosier.

Here is the link:

http://www.mediafire.com/?es1z1ouysed

Just a couple reminders:
1. The spreadsheet needs to download almost 7 megs of information to make it's computations. This will take time, but is worth the wait.
2. If you find a bug, let us know.
3. If you want a new feature, let us know.
4. Enjoy!

Posted by: Quentusrex [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 10, 2007 11:54 PM

On the subject of keeping shareholder value, Terry Chandler, CEO of mining company RedCorp Ventures, which has over $100M tied in illiquid ABCP, blasted securities regulators for "allowing the widely traded securities market to implode" and then "failing to oversee a proposed restructuring (bailout) by group of large financial institutions which are only serving their own interests". He gets it right about the institutions serving their own interests (by swapping short term debt for long term debt) - and this "bailout" is not a done deal and may still be in trouble - but why did RedCorp invest in ABCP? What does does tell the shareholders about the quality of management?

Mr. Chandler also says "I don't see any leadership coming from this group". It's a matter of leadership indeed.

(From National Post, September 11 print edition).

Hoosier,,,,,,for those of us whon may be technically challenged,,,one we click on the link and it takes us to the site:

We have to create an account??
Click on link there??

Any other options to take??

I did all of the above but nothing happened, no download, etc.

tkx

Dabonenose,

No need to create an account. Just click on the link, wait for the page to load, then click "Click Here to Download." Save the file to your hard drive, and then extract or unzip the files. Does this help?

Hoosier

Hoosier and Quentusrex,

Just downloaded the files, did the Add-Ins and am looking forward to working with the spreadsheet.

Thank you very much for your hard work and generosity!

Hugh Cleland one of Canada's top fund managers sure likes Western Goldfields. I am in good company.
Globe says Western Goldfields' valuation outlook bright

2007-09-11 06:56 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, Sept. 11, edition that Northern Rivers Innovation Fund portfolio manager Hugh Cleland says buy Western Goldfields. The Globe's Rajeev Dhir writes in the BNN Market Call column that Western Goldfields stock retreated eight cents to close on the Toronto Stock Exchange Monday at $2.70. The stock has a one-year trading range of $1.40 to $3.14. Mr. Cleland says that as Western Goldfields moves closer to production in January, 2008, the stock's valuation should get rerated from a preproduction multiple of 0.5 times net asset value, to a producer's valuation of one to 1.5 times net asset value. In a general outlook, Mr. Cleland feels that global growth has never been stronger. He continues to be bullish on corporate profitability. He says the United States economy will continue to eke by with no recession, but financial markets may see more "nerve-wracking" volatility. Mr. Cleland recommended Western Goldfields in The Globe's BNN Market Call column on May 25 when the stock was trading at $2.09. Mr. Cleland also said buy Western Goldfields on Sept. 7 when it was trading at $2.63.

Do you think the call by Flaherty for a single securities regulator would help prevent fraud like this?

Stelco,

Bill, thank you for your efforts in this debacle and for keeping everyone informed as to what really went on.

As you've heard from me before, I "loaned" Stelco money through the purchase of debentures. That makes me one of many who not only didn't receive the interest payments, but lost the entire amount of principal. They kept us on the line for awhile during the bankrupcy process by suggesting partial payouts and even an equity swap, but ultimately, they just cut us off. How those "special" shareholders managed to win big while bondholders lost it all is a remarkable twist on securities law! Whatever happened to shareholders get what's left after bondholders are paid? An amazing corporate raid that flew in the face of justice and belied most people's sense of investor protection.

I hope there's a "special" place in the after-life for the Rodney Motts of the world and their crew.

Hoosier and Quentusrex:
Everything worked fine w/ the download and installing the add-ins, BUT "Price Column" is all "undefined" and when I re-calculate, I get "Circular Reference" message. I'm sure it's something I'm doing, but can't figure it out. Thanks.

Hoosier and Quentusrex, thanks very much for sharing your work with the rest of the community.

Beisman69,

Did you get all the RSI data? Everything worked but the price column?

Hoosier

Hoosier,
yes, got all RSI data. Yes- everything worked except the price column.

Colin Twiggs calling for a retest of $730 in gold price.

http://tinyurl.com/3b4es2

last night's marketwatch headline resonates: "no direction known..."

closing out my QID for now, await word from the Fed...

CFC took a nice round-trip in the first half hour-will 50 basis pts clear out the shorts on this one...

financials acting well (XLF, WFC, BAC, GS)

Khan Resources (KRI.TO) trading halted... up 16% on high volume.

no position in KRI

Aginflation: China's inflation soars. China's inflation rate rose to 6.5 per cent in August - the highest in 11 years - driven in part by a 49% surge in the price of pork and meat from the same month a year ago (http://tinyurl.com/2lmr8e). This considerable inflation has many significant implications, but concentrating on food items only:

The Financial Post today has a full page chart on food inflation, more or less as follows. The article does mention India and China's populations eating better too as one of the causes.

Oil Price: +157% since 2002
Corn Price: +134% since 2005.

=>

Barley: +51% since 2006
Wheat: +83% since 2006
Soybean: +50% since 2006
Canola: +32% since 2006

=>

Cattle Price +12.5% (cattle displaced to scrublands)
Crop receipts: +25.6% (grain growers' revenue)
Tortillas: +400%
Suds soar: Brewers' Barley up +100% (German beer: +40%)

=>

Piranhas attacks: 40,000 head of Argentinean cattle have died this year alone from bites and starvation (poor cows moved to bad lands)
Tractors: Farmers use their fat earnings to buy tractors (see Deer & Co. share price, 200% since 2004.
Mexicans take to the streets to fight tortilla prices
Drinkers protest: Germans are angry about beer prices.

If people go hungry, that is scary, wars happen, governments fall.

BTW, here is my Yahoo "food" portfolio:

AFN-UN.TO AGU.TO ALEX BG CAG CALM CRESY DBA HF.TO HRL LNDC MFI.TO MON PBI-UN.TO PDA POT.TO PPC SAFM SDA SEB SEED SFD SLE STKL SYT TRA TSN VIFL

As posted a few times before, I own several of the above and I am keeping special attention on SDA, PDA, and SFD. As soon as the corrections happen, it is likely time to load up more. Do your DD please.

I bought some Blackstone (BX) this morning (basis @ 22.67). While this one was certainly overpriced on the IPO, I think the upcoming fed funds rate reduction will serve as a nice catalyst to grease the wheels of private equity. I think BX could very easily be at $25 come Sept. options expiration and that there is very limited downside now.

Si02 . . . your post took the words out of my mouth (post). I was going to post a blurb on Chinese food inflation as well.

Another from WSJ Morning Brief--Financial Times: Governments need to scrap subsidies for biofuels, or the current rush to support alternative energy sources will lead to surging food prices . . .

Keeping an eye on UNG today to reload the position if it gets down to the $35s. If there isn't any more substantial news regarding the Mexican pipeline situation, I think we will see a grind lower today. Seems to be doing some downward probing after yesterdays squeeze. I think Nat. gas will need good EIA storage numbers on Thursday to get some sustained support.

For those who buy into the agriculture ("food") theme and would prefer an ETF, the new Van Eck etf MOO fits the bill. (No position)

For those seeking dividend income, there's a Fortune 500 Minnesota agriculture company called CHS. It does not have a common stock, but does have a preferred yielding @ 7.8%. I suggested it to Bill for his Cara Fixed Income portfolio a few months ago. I don't know if it will be included in the final list, but I mention it here as follow-up to Si02's "food" portfolio. I am keeping the post short, but you can call investor relations after reviewing their web site at www.chsinc.com

(Disclosure: I have positions in my account and in other accounts I manage) CHSCP--Please do your own DD.

Very scary indeed Seamus, weren't the Chinese protesting too? BTW, I read a blog from someone currently visiting there, seems like homeless people are a major issue. This video was shot yesterday, dark and shaky, but comments on the enormous amount of people sleeping on the streets by the Grand Hyatt Hotel: http://light.vpod.tv/?s=0.0.301753

Switching to Technology stocks: NT is quite oversold, RSIs D/W/M at 23/15/30. NT was on Bill's list a few weeks ago.

trying a little CFC at 16.78...

Gold up 8.6

Thanks Hoosier,,,all set. same prob as others with no price data.

tkx for your work.

Dan

BBC's website offers pix of the "other type" of goldmine from Brazil's rain forest:

http://tinyurl.com/3c557u

Khan License Good say the Mongolian government.

Trading resumes 12:30 PM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CFC-plenty of supply on high volume...shorts pressing bets or longs bailing...

CFC:
Taking a small position (Oct 12.5 at $4.50)
Exited 1/2 UNG at 37.10

Hoosier or Quentusrex,
I don't know much about software, but do you have to have Microsoft Excel? I got the spreadsheet to open using Microsoft Works Spreadsheet, but the price column is Undefined. What I see does look impressive. So, I guess it won't work with my current software. Is that right? tia

CFC-adding a little more at 16.27...bet is on a snapper...but keeping it small...

A possible tie up with AREVA for Cara 100 member ABB?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL1184088220070911

AREVA is the top developer of nuclear power projects in the world, an area with many decades of growth ahead. Would be a nice addition to the CARA global 100 with or without ABB, IMHO.

Well, I stepped out of Kry last week and bought Apple instead when it was a little over $130. I may buy Kry again, but just observing it for now.

CFC-whoa, was that a 3m share block buy...

2nd...do you still think 159 on .xau is unrealistic? Not meant to be sarcastic. Moderation is good for the soul and will help me get back into a routine...but, missing the large pops that have come with gold. Perception of usd under 80...do you think it has traction? I'm at risk to get overstimulated here....too many innie outtie trades for my temperament. Bought what was allowed this morning. EWY/korea and OSG to stick with intl /oil theme.

Leisa made a good point in the discussinabout domestic growth vs global growth....no empirical evidence yet to show that they are ready to skate without the american consumer....this is the stuff important decisions need to be made..IMHO.

personally, going thru withdrawal from a heavy regimen of pain management...getting older sucks... i'll stop my whining...good luck with gas trading.

Going long CFC here goes against principles of sound trading. Even if it is for a quick bounce, the stock is locked into a significant downtrend with no signs of abating; it seems more like a gamble than a wise trade.

jasper-it's the end game we're playing, which is the only reason i'm recommending that you scale out...i would be taking more off the table today...

WGDFF having a great day. Not a lot of mention here but Bill really did some great write ups. Bill have you touched base with Ray yet?

WGDFF - Q 0.5 2.77 · 2.79 5.0 2.78 +0.22 +8.6%

Re CFC:
I see support around 13.65. No position

CFC-out at 16.95...

GFI touching the 17 handle which just happens to the 200 day EMA & resistance. Will be interesting to see if it goes through it.

Anyone getting into BC yet? How about HOV?

HOV - Picked up some @ 10.08 earlier today. Aso some calls on LEH, BBBY and WMT. So far, so good.

Sorry, last post typo omission--should be:

"happens to BE the 200 day EMA & resistance"

Sundance--thx for the info on AREVA. Notice they work with Mitsubishi Heavy which is the largest holding in NLR ETF. Will be interesting to see what the French gov't does with holding.

Canadian dollar over 96 cents on its way to par w/USD.

Any of you "goldbugs" have any opinions on....

Northern Dynasty Minerals [symbol: NAK]

???????????????????????????

Thanks!

NAK -

I just bought a partial position and will seize any further weakness. This is grandich's top pick. NAK has hit the long term trendline here and is an excellent buy IMO. Their recent deal with Anglo means they are fully funded to production on Pebble East and West and also validates that this is a tremendous property. Secondly, this deal is only for Pebble. NAK has 153 square mile property on which there is a 39 square mile IP anomoly of which Pebble is only a small part. The deal apparently only covers Pebble, not any other properties that may be discovered.

In the next weeks there should be in-fill and step-out drill results for Pebble East that will seek to expand the resource and move the 39.1 million OZ gold from inferred to measured and indicated categories. The resource is open to the north, south and at depth. Pebble West has 31.3 measured and indicated ounces of gold, 10.8 inferred. This is really a copper project though with 8.5 million tonnes M&I, 21.9 million tonnes inferred.

For a $1 billion market cap you get 80 million ounces of gold, a huge amount of copper, fully funded to production, and exploration upside on the property. That's about $12 per ounce gold, excluding the copper and molybdenum. You'll have to wait for 2015 for cash flows though.

Due your own DD.

After looking at the longterm chart of BC I decided to wait until it gets near it's multiyear low (I think it's 16.38 from memory) from 2004. It's headed there...IMO.

Hoosier -
Comments on the spreadsheet. I run excel 2007. It's pretty locked down, and will not automatically run macros or data connections without a confirmation. Having said that... I have to actually open both add-in files "RCH_Stock_Market_Functions.xla" and "ta_lib.xll", and then open (or refresh or re-open)the car100 spreadsheet before price data is populated.

Most (but not all) of the rsi values update. There are a few #value cells that remain (one example is for ticker CHA, #value remains in the RSI-7 Monthly column)

Final comment. The "Under the Microscope" tab is very cool.

Thanks!
-MM

moab...........

Thanks for the info on NAK.... I'm new to the world of gold miners and you guys have been teaching me a lot.

Thanks again! :-)

putting the QID hedge back on...

Moabmatt, IBKR will give the same error because there isn't enough data to compute that RSI Monthly level.

I've been long AREVA for a while as part of my nuclear energy portfolio. One issue with the stock is that it is has a very small float % and is very thinly traded.

2ndave.
My mindset is to keep playing and have safety nets, like trailing stops and double shorts. But, I'm open to re-adjusting the process. To poorly paraphrase, no one gets rich by not taking high risks....but no one goes broke. It would do my emotions well to assimilate moderation and pace.

As for Mr. Greed:
My read of the tea leaves: .gdm will "w" with a continuation trend, not bounce downward and there's still more to go with goldminers relative to bullion.

Quentusrex -
I confirm IBKR shows the same behavior. So, a comment to all who may see #value remain rather than a numeric value... Not enough data (or time line) for some of the tickers to compute an rsi value in a given period.

Thanks again...
-MM

ALOHA !!

moab ... As you guys know Northern Dynasty-NDM.V/NAK.AMEX is a part of the Hunter Dickinson Group(HD Group)mining incubator. I have also brought attention to Anooraq, Great Basin Gold and Farallon. I would not touch the others due to the China connection and diamonds. All worthy
companies.

Hoosier...

First of all thanks a bunch for the spreadsheet. It will be great to sort these columns.

I'm like the others, all columns update automatically when opening the spreadsheet but the price column shows undefined in each cell.

Bill

AlaBill,

Heavy lifting done by Quentusrex. I look forward to working on making it better with him. Glad you like it. It's been a crazy day at work, I'll review issues soon, and try to get back.

Quentusrex and Hoosier

Great program. Running Excel 2007. Getting price as "undefined" as well. No big deal though as the RSI's are working fine.

QUESTION:

Tickers in the CARA 100 are not static as Bill adds-drops from time to time. When that happens (or if one wants to add-drop tickers on their own) how does one do so using your program so that RSI's can be had?

Occam_razor

RE: AREVA

Areva is pretty thinly traded (the 700 euro stock price does not help with market liquidity), but I think it is a very smart long term hold. I'll be keeping an eye out for a possible entry point. I am going to look at the european shares as opposed to the super thin U.S. OTC shares.

I'd be interested to hear what else you are holding in the nuclear portfolio.

Steven,

We're working on making it easier to do that, but for now it would require you to either edit some of the hidden calculations. Or we would release another version of the Spreadsheet with the updated Cara100 and some other changes.

I'm working on the undefined price error. If someone who is having that problem could e-mail me I have some questions. I'll walk you through how to get me the information I need to fix it.

My e-mail is my username plus @gmail.com

Steven,
I believe that you will get the price if you manually open (or double click) c:\Program Files\SMF add-in\RCH_Stock_Market_Functions.xla

You'll probably get a dialog box asking if you want to allow the macros to run (say yes), and like magic, the prices will appear.

Hoosier & Q,

Thank you for all your hard work on this project and for sharing it with us. This is just very cool.

Many thanks again.

Anyone intersted in bottom fishing - just reading the Q2 Cundill Funds report (if you don't know, they are deep value investors and one of Canada's best)

"Technology, along with U.S homebuilders, print media and forestry are likely to be a focus over the next quarter."

Quentusrex

Got the sheet. Thanks. Issues:
Industry shows "undefined".
Following symbols Show "#VALUE!" for Monthly and "" for weekly: GOL, TS, TGP, OXPS, TCK, SLW, GOOG, CHA, IBKR. Macro's & Web access enabled in 2007 .xlsx
there are some hidden rows-columns.
Did not see the " Under The Microscope " tab
Thanks for the work. Hope this helps

Quentusrex and Hoosier

Thank you for your efforts with respect to your spreadsheets and macros. You guys had to do a lot of work for these results.

Thanks again.

Questions:

1) when I open Cara100 v1.0, the price column (B) reads undefined
2) If I try to update, I get the message that this workbook contains one or more links that cannot be updated. Hitting tab to continue causes columns B thru I say “#Names?” in all cells.

Any suggestions?

3) Are your Macros written in Visual basic or the old excel Macro language?

TIA

Quentusrex and Hoosier: I appreciate you spending your time to create this spread sheet. It's great of you guys to help us.

Bill: Thanks for taking time from your vacation to comment. It has helped me alot. I hope you and your wife have a great week.

Highest regards,
Rookie

Telestar3d,

I had same problems. They're working on price column issue. I was getting the #NAMES? value issue because I didn't actually add the Add-Ins as described in the readme :)

Hope this helps.

Thanks for the spreadsheet guys...

Thanks Proudpapa, but I have the two files (ta-lib.xll and RCH_Stock_Market_Functions) in the following location.

C:\Program Files\SMF Add-In

Using Excel 2002 SP3.

putting them in that folder isn't enough, you need to add them from inside Excel. Go to Tools -> Add-ins, click browse, go to that directory, select one of the files and click OK. Repeat for second file.

Thanks Proudpapa, I did that, but I just rechecked and he did not hold the add-ins in excel. I'll try again.
Cheers

I am working right now at putting on some puts in the Crude Oil pit. The February 60 puts are 710.00/put. This double top I think will play itself out by the end of December to my 60-65 strike estimate. 3-5K gain/put.

Quentusrex and Hoosier: does your program work in Excel for Macs?

Alright everyone, for anyone who was having the problem with the ticker price, or you just want the newest version:

http://www.mediafire.com/?bnt63ihczr3

This is the updated file which has the ticker prices bug fixed. Thanks to everyone who helped find and investigate this bug.

Enjoy!

writersblock,

All I can say is try it out and let me know. It would all be dependent upon whether the add-ins worked. If they don't then it won't, if they do there isn't anything else that would prevent the spreadsheet from working.

BillySundance -

There was a discussion on nuclear energy investments here sometime in 2006 but for some reason I could not find it in the archives. Anyway my current holdings are:

equipment builders -
AREVA (CEI / SBF)
Toshiba Plant (1983 / Tokyo Stock Exchange)
Hitachi Plant (1970 / Tokyo Stock Exchange)
Mitsubishi Heavy (7011 / Tokyo Stock Exchange)
GE (this is clearly not a pure play)
waiting for an entry point in ABB

uranium miners -
CCJ
BHP
KRI.TO
trading in and out STM, U, DNN etc.

I looked into USEC but decided to stay away - they are going to get more competition in enrichment business including Russians.
BTW Russia recently signed and agreement with Australia for importing U for enrichment (likely on their underutilized cold war era facilities).

I forgot to mention that my utilities holdings are also intentionally skewed towards ones running nuclear power plants. This is again not a pure play but a little bit of nuclear enrichment is good ;-)

Quentusrex and Hoosier:

Downloaded the latest file and everything is working correclty! Thanks.

For Ofice 2007 users getting the security warning:
-----------
Go to the Excel Options -> Trust Center -> Trust Center Settings --> Trust Center Locations -> Add New locations and select "C:\Program Files\SMF add-In" avoid warnings each time you open the file.

Miadhach,

"Under the Microscope" is at the bottom left of the sheet, next to "Main Page". It gives one the ability to track the daily RSI during the day as the price changes for any given stock.

Steven,

I just finished a version with the ability to create your own 100 watchlist, located in a separate tab. We are reviewing it now for release. Stay tuned.

Per my chart, the US$ index hasn't gone this low since 1992 !!! - Time to go for the GOLD!

Japanese Prime Minister to resign.

This is just the kind of unexpected event the financial system doesn't need right now. Already too much uncertainty on many fronts. Somehow the pressure needs to be relieved, at least temporarily. Perhaps a test of the August bottom coming soon?

siguy: I don't think that the JPM's resignation is a surprise. In fact, given his/his party's struggles, it is likely to be positively embraced.

Quentusrex, Hoosier - thank you greatly for your efforts with the spreadsheet - question - anyone get the excel file working in openoffice calc? Having trouble with the add-ins.

UNG-

jogyp, you should be getting the 5% gap-up you were looking for this morning for your remaining half-position...Nymex Oct 6.11...

UNG: Exited at 38.4
My first trade with IB, went super fast.