The crisis has occurred because of a rush by traders to pay down debt before they get caught in a credit squeeze by mortgage companies and other lending institutions. The recent spike to record highs in equity prices around the world paved the way for traders to take a little off the table and repay their debts, many of which were in Yen, but also in USD and other currencies.

In the US, for instance, as equities sold down from the peak, the 30-day T-Bill rate was lifting. Normally the rate would fall as traders would sell stocks and hold cash. The problem was that they didn’t hold as much cash as bankers were hoping for; instead they repaid debts, much of which was in Japanese Yen.

The 30-day T-Bill rate lifted from 4.37 pct (June 16) to 4.56 pct (June 23 and 30) to 4.82 pct (July 14) to 4.80 (July 21). That was the cycle peak, and that was when many hedge funds had reached a crisis state.

That rapid rise in rates and dropping of the value of T-Bills, which were being used for margin loans, resulted in all hedge funds that had been super-leveraged up using T-Bills – some to 80x, but mostly just under 10x – were taking billions in losses because their T-Bill collateral was rapidly disappearing. They were forced to then sell good quality assets in a rapidly falling market, which exacerbated the problem.

Simply put, those over-leveraged and under hedged, fund managers (which wasn't all of them) were unprepared for a winding down of the Carry Trade. Many have now failed because of the losses they took in June and July. Client redemptions then became a problem for these Funds, some of which had to restrict further trading. A crisis in confidence blew up virtually overnight.

To many traders, one of the “tells” was the deer-in the-headlights look of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson who had just returned from what were emergency meetings in Asia-Pacific countries and was being interviewed by CNBC a couple weeks back. Within minutes – not hearing what they needed to hear or seeing that usual cocky demeanor, US markets started to sell off fast. They recovered, but only temporarily.

As word leaked out that bankers were pulling in loans and brokers were seeing client accounts getting close to the margin, nervous customers fled to cash and T-Bills, further driving down the rates. So, after hitting a brief high in rates in late July, rates started to tumble. But some of us missed the beginning of that when Yahoo Finance on August 10 re-published the rates table from week earlier.

Do you recall I asked at the time why Yahoo Finance was not working properly (but Yahoo itself was!)? The strangest things happen during times of extremely volatile markets. Events like that are seldom pure co-incidence. In that case, I believe We The People were being set up by a panicked Wall Street.

The T-Bill rate was 4.74 on August 3, but by the following Friday the 10th, it had plunge to 4.38, and then this Friday the 17th all the way to 3.28 pct. This is not a rush to cash by traders; it is purely and simply the result of an emergency move by central bankers by injecting funds into HB&B (buying long-term paper) to allow them to push up their T-Bill collateral and stop the hemorrhaging of their hedge funds.

That’s only part of the action by central bankers and finance ministers. As “Kaimu” pointed out to me this weekend in the linked article, central bankers are also resorting to a lack of transparency in order to protect us, they say. So, he sees it like I do.

In fact Kaimu has more to say here that makes sense, so please read on:

ALoHa BiLL !! …I like to use (a) simple analogy to explain how fiat monetary systems work in terms of value and risk perception.

THE FIAT AVALANCHE
Three skiers caught in an avalanche ... as long as they are looking at each other it appears they are not sliding downhill or moving at all, but once they look at the trees flying by they know the truth. That’s how I see the global economy under a fiat monetary regime. Constant re-weighting, manipulating and modification and choreographed devaluing makes it look like all countries are stable with great rising markets of wealth and not in an avalanche of debt sliding off a cliff of false "fiat" wealth!

With the help of various past and present US government administrations, the US Federal Reserve has been steadily dismantling the "trees" that are flying by ... the M3 tree ... the CPI tree ... the BLS jobs data tree ... and the POG tree. That's how fiat monetary systems work ... no point of reference ... no standard of measure. Ultimately, pure risk and no value equals no "real" wealth or market stability.

Our confidence in the global financial system is quickly eroding the more we see how Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) exploits the fractional reserve system to their advantage, and comes screaming for help when their plans don’t work.

If all central banks were put directly under control of governments and those governments be held accountable to the People instead of HB&B, Friends & Family such that govt would be downsized and only be able to write checks (like us) they can cash, the free market system would work better on its own. I believe in free markets, just not in the nonsense from people who say we have them.

Of course, changing the structure of the monetary authority in the US, and by eliminating the ubiquitous conflicts of interest with HB&B, is a long-term solution. This week, I must agree with the actions taken by G-20 central bankers and finance ministers. In order to get further along our journey, we have to jump the hurdles that are immediately in front of us.

This week, confidence in the global financial system was definitely an obstacle to the free flow of market trading. Something had to be done by the authorities and it was. For that, and for now at least, we should all be satisfied.

My remark is not to say the authorities fixed or even addressed the underlying problem. Without our common belief that these serious problems will be resolved, however, we are still a world awaiting Financial Armageddon. My point is that, now that the authorities have taken such strong emergency action, the capital markets are unlikely to start another slippery slide downhill for another two to five months.

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The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Friday session Cara 100 gainers.

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Here are Cara 100 losers on Friday.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Friday session.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes, ie, Money Flow, especially when markets start trending.

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Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

The folks at KNOBIAS, Inc provided the Cara 100 watchlists.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

Here are the charts of up to a dozen stocks with RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from Friday: Please note that a week ago Friday there were zero above 70 on the Daily RSI-7 data, but 62 of 100 below 30. That was the most extreme daily reading (positive or negative) since I started to blog in April 2004.

RSI > 70 (0)

RSI < 30 (12) (Without ASD post spin off)

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for Friday:

Please note that WMT (Wal-Mart) in a couple days would have its Monthly RSI-7 value drop to 30 or lower – giving a Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 under 30, which puts the stock clearly in the long-term ACCUMULATION ZONE. Then, in a rally, the next day would have it’s Daily RSI-7 move up across 30, which then would represent a long-term BUY ALERT.

That’s a head’s up for long-term players, like financial institutions and deep-pocketed individuals who look forward five years or more. Later in this Report, I’ll tell the short-term players why I add trend indicator MACD to my analysis and how I adjust the RSI 30-70 bar after I believe markets have completed a long-term trend turn.

As the Cara Community is made up of such a diverse group, I try to include dance steps for everyone. :-)

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”. That’s not a bad thing because in volatile markets, the unsmoothed data can give earlier alerts. You can be whip-sawed easier, but this technical indicator system is a tactical action only, and experienced traders always run tactics off of strategies. So, if I believe in a Buy decision say, then I want to have a reference point continuum that is going to give me a decision support signal just a bit ahead of other traders.

Like I always say, trading is as much or more art than science. Many of you will start early in your career as a trader believing strongly in all these mathematical systems, then you see the authors/vendors re-drawing their charts, and you start to become more an artist out of necessity. Then in time, you see how major capital pools have set up algorithmic trading programs that trade against the actions those authors/vendors know are likely to happen by the “tea leaf reader” crowd. I pointed out recently how I was ignoring a “triple bottom breakdown” in a Point & Figure chart because I figured somebody (ie, some computer backed by a whole lot of capital) was playing those P&F traders for losers.

At the end of the day, your trader’s toolkit needs everything I say it does, from an appreciation for economic datapoints and corporate fundamental and quantitative data to understanding the nuances of technical trend and cycle indicators. You manage a portfolio like you would any other business, where you would never rely strictly on one facet of it like production or sales or finance or employee relations, etc.

But just like in business, we are all different types of people, who have different styles. It’s up to us to figure that out and to seek objective info from independent sources that will be meaningful to us.

Some of you next week may sell that WMT, and some of you might be the buyer, and both of you could be meeting your objectives. That’s the great thing about trading. Once you know yourself and you know how to trade, you have a life skill that, like riding a bicycle never leaves you stranded. You can always get where you want to go; it is just a matter of time.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals. The “internals” this week were depressing to the Bulls and looking rather delicious to the Bears. But, maybe it’s time – for a couple months -- to change places at the table.

“Jock” reports:

Bill –

I removed ETFC from the list, and added IBKR (which does not have enough trading history to generate the indicators). – Jock

Weekly Impulse Report

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices now stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (at what rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

This week saw 0 GREEN industries, and 27 RED (compared to 20 last week). During the Feb-March pullback, the tally never exceeded 6 industries RED.

If the stricter “inertia”criterion were used (the 13 wk. MA instead of the 26wk.) NO industries would escape the RED, just as last week.

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Of the Cara 100 components, 6 are green (last week: 16), 70 red (last week: 55).

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Components of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):

DJIA – 3/16 (last week: 3/16)

Dow65 (indu&transport&utility) 6/38– (last week: 12/33)

SP500 – 63/274(last week: 75/288)

NDX – 12/52 (last week: 27/44)

RUT – 530/813(last week: 513/884).

The following major indices themselves are RED on their weekly charts: DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Comp, Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500.

Silver stocks turned from GREEN last week to RED, while gold stocks remained RED. The CRB index remained RED. The US dollar index remained neutral.

NOTE: I didn’t see much mention of the fact that Friday’s volume was BELOW Thursday’s in all the major indices. (Thanks Worden Bros. for pointing that out.) I checked and verified that Friday’s volume was also down in ALL THE MAJOR INDUSTRY GROUPS monitored in this report. Food for thought!

/Jock

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Traders must recognize that the Impulse System is quite useful as a trend watching or following system, but it is not a forecasting system. You need both. That’s why I do the Cara 100 RSI tables, so you can see the data happening in a manner you can project ahead, and take action when you should be buying or selling.

What I like about the Impulse System is that Jock does it across so many key industry groups. In combination with your appreciation that market prices tend to move because of the most important drivers, interest rates, economic growth, commodity prices and inflation, you can easily spot the areas that are breaking down (job number one) and when the broad market tide is changing.

The credit market problems showed up early in the tables created by this system, for example.

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week

The story this week was that the US Fed Discount Rate was chopped -50 basis points, and that the more important Funds Rate would likely be cut possibly twice during the remaining months of this year.

The latter is problematic for me because the Fed cuts Rates when equity prices are weak and falling; they raise when equity prices are strong and on the rise.

In any case, here is a backgrounder on the differences between the Discount Rate and the Funds Rate. Study up.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

A week ago, the DJIA dropped to 13182. This week, with all the volatility involved, the DJIA closed at 13080, down from 13239 W/W. It could have been worse had the Fed not opened the Discount Window and made short-term money available at a cheaper price.

Two weeks ago, I remarked, “The Bulls are worried. Most people, in fact, are because they are long stocks…” The DJIA had just fallen from 13907 (Week #28 July 14) to 13181 (Week #31 August 3).

Subsequently, the equity markets have been extremely volatile as traders are going through a crisis of confidence. Resolving the underlying problems would restore the confidence, but at least the recent action taken by the global monetary authorities is likely to cool the volatility for a while.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq had a week (-1.57 pct) not much different to the DJIA (-1.21 pct).

The good news is that on Friday, the Nasdaq (+2.20 pct) and the DJIA (+1.82 pct) were in rally mode.

Another piece of good news for the Bulls was that the small cap Russell 2000 was down only -0.20 pct W/W, and was up +2.39 pct on Friday.

Through this report, I am going to be positive in that I believe the final three hours of trading on Thursday and Friday’s session was so extremely positive that prices are likely now to rally for a couple months until the next Earnings Reporting period in mid-October. And, if those corporate earnings and guidance communications are positive, then the rally could persist a bit longer, say until calendar year-end.

But all is not well in the financial system. The liquidity injections were temporary, and will have to be withdrawn. So, debt and equity prices are somewhat limited on the upside.

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Table 13: International equities ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SPY	144.71	2.61	1.84%	-0.04%	0.63%	-5.73%	2.36%	-4.36%	-0.70%	11.29%
IFN	44.90	1.55	3.58%	-0.64%	1.93%	-3.50%	-0.97%	7.06%	3.65%	9.41%
EWU	23.50	0.55	2.40%	-1.63%	-3.53%	-9.93%	-0.21%	-6.86%	-1.67%	7.80%
IEV	108.45	1.99	1.87%	-2.04%	-3.40%	-9.23%	2.70%	-6.35%	-0.12%	14.11%
QQQQ	46.31	0.86	1.89%	-2.05%	-2.34%	-7.47%	7.10%	-0.04%	3.44%	19.57%
EWJ	13.60	-0.10	-0.73%	-2.30%	-3.20%	-6.91%	-4.23%	-4.83%	-8.79%	-2.58%
EWC	28.42	0.90	3.27%	-3.23%	-3.99%	-10.96%	15.06%	-3.37%	8.60%	16.62%
TRF	62.33	4.94	8.61%	-3.36%	-3.18%	-14.03%	-29.61%	-7.43%	-17.33%	-11.94%
FXI	124.40	4.66	3.89%	-4.13%	-4.43%	-10.01%	6.87%	7.64%	16.37%	54.30%
EWZ	53.08	1.80	3.51%	-10.64%	-12.84%	-22.22%	13.66%	-8.09%	8.30%	31.68%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

The EWJ lost -2.30 pct W/W to close at 13.60. Simultaneously, the Yen rallied +3.82 pct W/W. The Carry Trade is being unwound as traders are losing confidence that a crisis in the global financial system can be avoided.

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

The EWU lost big again (-1.63 pct this week after dropping -1.93 pct a week ago to close at 23.50. O July 14, EWU was 26.40.

There was a huge rally on Friday (+2.40 pct), after G-20 monetary authorities stepped up to avert a crisis.

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

The commodity price sensitive EWC lost -3.23 pct W/W to close at 28.42 as $CRB dropped -1.53 pct this week and -2.28 pct the week before.

In a market rally, there is usually an orderly move among sectors. First the interest-rate sensitive sectors rally first (Banks, Insurance, and debt-heavy Telcos/Utilities), then the economically-sensitive sectors and finally the commodity-price sensitives.

In the latter case this weekend there is Hurricane Dean moving toward the Gulf of Mexico at ferocious windspeeds of about +150 mph. That’s enough to rally Energy ($WTIC +1.34 pct on Friday and +0.49 pct W/W). Otherwise, $CRB would have been lower and EWC possibly hurting even more.

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the equity market.

This week there was just one sector ETF up (Financials XLF +3.60 pct W/W) and the other nine down. A week ago it was seven ETF’s up and three down, and a tick away from an 8-2 score for the Bulls.

But it’s how you finish the week that counts most in trading. On Friday, all ten sector ETF’s were in extreme rally mode. The defensive Consumer Staples (XLP) got left behinf (+0.49 pct) as Financials (XLF +4.07 pct), Energy (XLE +3.69 pct) and Telecom Services (IYZ +2.52 pct) led the way.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	34.50	1.35	4.07%	3.60%	7.61%	-2.68%	-6.55%	-8.46%	-8.63%	3.02%
IYH	67.30	0.60	0.90%	-0.18%	0.22%	-3.54%	1.26%	-6.16%	-2.29%	5.35%
IYZ	32.08	0.79	2.52%	-0.31%	-2.22%	-7.60%	8.16%	-3.58%	3.45%	22.12%
XLE	67.50	2.40	3.69%	-0.32%	2.09%	-8.78%	19.30%	1.12%	16.38%	19.26%
XLP	26.65	0.13	0.49%	-0.82%	0.00%	-2.74%	1.41%	-3.06%	-0.97%	6.43%
XLU	38.63	0.33	0.86%	-0.97%	1.79%	-5.09%	4.92%	-9.32%	1.02%	13.75%
XLI	38.00	0.38	1.01%	-1.50%	-2.94%	-7.09%	7.86%	-0.99%	3.71%	16.53%
XLY	35.55	0.25	0.71%	-2.23%	-2.25%	-9.91%	-7.71%	-9.68%	-10.90%	7.40%
SMH	36.55	0.55	1.53%	-3.05%	-1.46%	-8.35%	8.88%	-1.48%	6.03%	10.82%
XLB	36.90	0.50	1.37%	-4.68%	-3.96%	-13.79%	6.62%	-8.05%	-2.15%	16.48%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CVX	84.36	2.97	3.65%	1.13%	4.12%	-8.42%	18.87%	3.56%	19.14%	27.53%
XOM	84.14	3.47	4.30%	-0.44%	2.51%	-8.48%	13.53%	2.86%	11.75%	23.59%
ECA	58.63	1.64	2.88%	-2.12%	-4.60%	-7.96%	29.31%	-4.98%	19.80%	9.79%
TOT	71.86	1.85	2.64%	-2.40%	-2.71%	-12.55%	1.25%	-3.04%	2.38%	5.79%
STO	26.83	0.82	3.15%	-3.04%	-6.68%	-16.39%	4.44%	-1.47%	3.31%	-0.74%
SU	86.35	1.95	2.31%	-3.97%	-3.70%	-9.64%	16.83%	0.29%	15.12%	9.60%
IMO	40.57	1.26	3.21%	-5.87%	-8.81%	-17.57%	13.77%	-8.42%	10.07%	4.43%
CEO	102.58	5.56	5.73%	-7.29%	-9.65%	-16.47%	8.82%	13.01%	21.73%	16.13%
PBR	54.08	0.52	0.97%	-10.32%	-12.45%	-22.60%	8.53%	1.43%	14.99%	17.85%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

XLE lost -0.32 pct W/W, but gained +3.69 pct Friday to close at 67.50. Over the past six sessions, XLE is positive. Previously there had been a 4-week loss of -7.58 pct.

ChevronTexaco (CVX) was up +1.13 pct W/W and the big loser was Petro Brazil (PBR -10.32 pct W/W). But that is an anomaly that will soon be corrected.

If you look at the biggest losers this week in the Cara 100, they are all the Brazil stocks: PBR, TS (Brazil/Argentina), RIO, GGB, ERJ and ABV. The ERJ and ABV are not commodity-related, so this pull-back (the country ETF, which is EWZ, plunged -10.6 pct W/W) was on account of the Carry Trade being unwound, particularly in the highest beta stocks/sectors/countries, and not because of any fundamental change in commodity prices or price direction.

So, I say that this Carry Trade issue will melt away in a broad market rally (for now at least), and there will be a recovery in Brazil stocks, and commodity prices – as laggards maybe but still in the action.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RTP	244.70	10.05	4.28%	-2.41%	-8.17%	-21.24%	19.89%	-11.99%	10.82%	18.19%
PKX	129.88	5.38	4.32%	-3.04%	-4.53%	-11.66%	63.52%	16.07%	35.11%	115.07%
AA	33.29	1.37	4.29%	-4.04%	-7.99%	-22.73%	13.50%	-14.97%	-4.28%	16.77%
TCK	38.77	1.21	3.22%	-5.05%	-8.15%	-22.15%	-44.01%	-4.25%	-48.74%	-45.86%
NUE	49.61	3.75	8.18%	-5.22%	-3.44%	-18.08%	-8.97%	-24.55%	-23.35%	-2.30%
MT	55.33	1.51	2.81%	-5.31%	-12.30%	-15.72%	35.61%	-4.02%	8.60%	71.30%
BHP	54.80	2.53	4.84%	-6.72%	-9.76%	-18.25%	40.98%	8.24%	19.76%	28.76%
TS	44.70	2.14	5.03%	-8.46%	-4.16%	-9.16%	-7.87%	-2.21%	-5.20%	21.40%
RIO	40.10	1.89	4.95%	-11.56%	-14.24%	-21.33%	39.14%	-10.81%	11.70%	77.43%
GGB	20.40	1.01	5.21%	-14.00%	-17.61%	-26.46%	24.24%	-7.61%	8.97%	30.77%

XLB (Basic Materials) lost -4.68 pct W/W to close at 36.90, which was by far the worst sector performer this week, and is now over-sold and soon to catch the rally that started on Thursday afternoon. XLB on Friday gained +1.37 pct.

Rio Tinto Mines (RTP) dropped -2.41 pct W/W and that was the best of my watchlist. Brazil-based Gerdau Steel (GGB) plunged -14.00 pct W/W, but the problem is not a crisis in steel as I see it, but with the unwinding of the Carry Trade.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MMM	87.83	2.43	2.85%	2.16%	0.31%	-2.64%	12.23%	1.34%	14.30%	23.36%
UTX	73.82	2.74	3.85%	1.01%	-0.15%	-2.91%	17.53%	6.41%	7.48%	19.16%
GE	38.45	1.25	3.36%	0.58%	1.02%	-4.16%	1.26%	5.26%	7.19%	13.35%
FDX	108.00	3.83	3.68%	-0.95%	-0.52%	-6.63%	-1.61%	0.72%	-7.73%	3.62%
ABB	21.99	0.71	3.34%	-2.27%	-5.70%	-8.72%	23.40%	9.40%	21.42%	64.47%
BA	95.93	3.19	3.44%	-2.55%	-7.97%	-7.64%	7.58%	-0.89%	5.49%	22.06%
HON	54.46	0.34	0.63%	-2.77%	-6.39%	-10.66%	20.75%	-6.46%	13.86%	39.21%
CAT	72.64	-0.36	-0.49%	-6.33%	-8.00%	-12.69%	18.77%	-2.94%	7.34%	4.73%
ERJ	42.87	0.87	2.07%	-9.27%	-3.25%	-10.87%	5.13%	-8.81%	-6.76%	19.92%

XLI dropped -1.50 pct to close at 38.00. The gain on Friday was +1.01 pct.

3M (MMM) was the big winner in my list (+2.16 pct W/W) and Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ) was down -9.27 pct. A week earlier, ERJ had lifted +6.6 pct W/W. Do you think there was a bit of pump and dump going on, possibly, in these Brazilian stocks?

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	67.55	3.41	5.32%	5.35%	2.77%	-9.87%	-13.46%	-15.29%	-20.76%	-1.57%
WHR	93.63	0.83	0.89%	-0.72%	-4.23%	-15.21%	10.60%	-17.24%	-2.67%	17.58%
DIS	32.68	0.10	0.31%	-1.45%	-3.60%	-4.83%	-4.44%	-9.20%	-6.33%	9.30%
NKE	54.47	1.28	2.41%	-2.35%	-3.59%	-6.92%	11.55%	2.87%	2.48%	41.55%
TM	114.51	0.60	0.53%	-4.04%	-3.69%	-6.83%	-15.37%	-5.75%	-16.51%	1.90%
BC	24.80	0.78	3.25%	-4.32%	-9.02%	-18.21%	-22.31%	-26.78%	-25.84%	-17.80%
SBUX	26.70	0.09	0.34%	-4.78%	1.48%	-3.61%	-24.26%	-6.22%	-19.12%	-14.67%
EBAY	34.14	0.50	1.49%	-5.17%	2.46%	1.82%	13.16%	3.52%	1.55%	23.38%
CCL	45.10	1.61	3.70%	-5.39%	3.42%	-3.76%	-11.48%	-4.97%	-6.74%	13.37%

XLY (consumer discretionary spending stocks) was down -2.23 pct W/W, lifting only +0.71 pct on Friday. It closed at 35.55.

A week ago, XLY was flat, but the four weeks before that it had declined -9.46 pct.

The loser this week was Carnival Cruise (CCL -5.39 pct) with Hurricane Dean scaring customers away, and energy costs rising. CCL the week earlier (no hurricanes and plunging oil prices!) had jumped +9.3 pct.

The winner was JC Penny (JCP +5.35 pct W/W). Back to school talk, I suppose.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WFMI	44.30	3.13	7.60%	4.80%	9.82%	12.67%	-2.59%	12.07%	-4.59%	-19.82%
PEP	69.38	1.01	1.48%	2.10%	4.38%	7.28%	10.62%	1.30%	7.37%	10.72%
MO	67.59	1.23	1.85%	0.30%	1.49%	-3.17%	4.11%	-3.03%	4.48%	11.53%
PG	65.35	1.32	2.06%	-0.06%	3.93%	5.15%	1.26%	3.12%	0.43%	8.30%
KO	54.45	1.07	2.00%	-0.96%	2.20%	2.33%	12.08%	4.31%	13.75%	23.25%
WAG	45.67	0.55	1.22%	-1.62%	3.58%	0.40%	-0.87%	0.73%	-0.74%	-8.00%
BUD	47.25	0.30	0.64%	-3.04%	-3.47%	-4.80%	-4.00%	-4.89%	-7.64%	-3.22%
DEO	78.93	-0.06	-0.08%	-4.89%	-3.11%	-7.34%	-0.75%	-6.26%	-3.01%	10.25%
WMT	43.49	-0.01	-0.02%	-5.60%	-4.46%	-9.51%	-8.54%	-7.68%	-10.29%	-2.55%
ABV	59.23	3.66	6.59%	-10.77%	-9.07%	-21.12%	20.63%	-9.94%	11.84%	35.69%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) lost -0.82 pct W/W to close at 26.55, which is close to what it was Aug 3.

The winner this week (4.80 pct), and last (+4.8 pct) and the one before that (+12.1 pct) was Whole Foods Market (WFMI +4.80 pct). This one has been an M&A and litigation play.

Wal-Mart (WMT -5.6 pct) and Brazil’s AmBev (-10.8 pct) were the losers.

WMT is getting into the long-term Accumulation Zone. With ABV, do you recall me chastising myself: “It’s not the beer stupid; it’s all about Brazil”? Yes, why else would a global beer operator, perhaps the world’s biggest, drop -10.8 pct in a few days? Spell the answer C-A-R-R-Y T-R-A-D-E.

And when you day traders see that trade reversing (for now at least), jump on the short call options for a ride north.

For ABV, the Monthly RSI and MACD charts tell me that, like 2Q06, there is a lot of downside to come for this stock before it bottoms out, but in the short-term, the Daily chart shows the extreme corrections from over-sold positions. Look at the action on Friday.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UNH	49.80	0.94	1.92%	4.89%	4.84%	-2.96%	-5.27%	-7.18%	-7.69%	1.55%
JNJ	62.02	0.39	0.63%	1.42%	2.43%	0.37%	-6.60%	-1.15%	-5.33%	-3.44%
DNA	72.62	-0.60	-0.82%	1.33%	-1.09%	-3.37%	-11.22%	-6.25%	-16.02%	-11.78%
AET	49.04	0.18	0.37%	0.72%	-0.55%	-1.27%	14.37%	-6.70%	7.52%	35.47%
BMET	45.60	-0.04	-0.09%	0.09%	0.33%	0.29%	9.96%	4.95%	7.65%	37.76%
AMGN	50.08	0.67	1.36%	0.00%	-1.61%	-10.86%	-26.78%	-6.71%	-24.95%	-25.16%
PFE	23.94	0.55	2.35%	-0.21%	1.83%	-3.86%	-8.94%	-12.50%	-8.97%	-11.33%
GSK	50.69	0.89	1.79%	-2.63%	-0.63%	-3.70%	-5.80%	-11.61%	-12.27%	-7.62%
NVS	52.66	0.81	1.56%	-3.45%	-1.55%	-4.24%	-9.43%	-7.89%	-11.11%	-7.63%
BMY	27.66	0.29	1.06%	-4.02%	-1.21%	-12.30%	4.85%	-8.44%	0.07%	28.77%

IYH (healthcare) was down just -0.18 pct W/W to 67.30 because nervous traders were going defensive, and they perceive this sector as well as the consumer staples and the telcos to offer the best protection against downside selling in broad market action.

The winner a week ago week BristolMyersSquibb (+2.9 pct) was this week’s loser (BMY -4.02 pct). The winner this week was UnitedHealth (UNH +4.89 pct).

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JPM	47.01	1.54	3.39%	6.24%	7.70%	-1.16%	-2.21%	-10.56%	-8.27%	3.41%
C	48.81	1.26	2.65%	3.85%	6.76%	-3.78%	-11.66%	-10.93%	-9.78%	0.49%
MS	62.23	3.26	5.53%	3.66%	2.66%	-7.90%	-23.76%	-26.07%	-24.44%	-7.90%
MER	76.04	4.91	6.90%	2.59%	8.55%	-5.00%	-18.77%	-17.53%	-18.05%	0.18%
HBC	89.98	2.40	2.74%	-0.22%	-1.58%	-2.38%	-3.22%	-3.56%	0.49%	-0.42%
CS	66.99	1.69	2.59%	-1.12%	2.03%	-4.26%	-4.45%	-11.28%	-11.75%	0.00%
LEH	58.11	3.36	6.14%	-1.63%	4.18%	-14.91%	-26.10%	-20.33%	-29.66%	-13.40%
DB	128.69	2.53	2.01%	-2.80%	-4.14%	-10.04%	-4.91%	-17.49%	-8.86%	14.34%
GS	175.00	5.15	3.03%	-3.05%	-2.60%	-15.02%	-12.81%	-23.04%	-19.33%	13.31%
UBS	52.98	0.85	1.63%	-3.59%	-2.03%	-8.86%	-13.70%	-16.50%	-15.94%	-8.29%

The present state of markets hinges mostly on the Financials (XLF).

Two weeks ago, XLF took the biggest beating (-3.87 pct), including on Friday (-4.67 pct!). But one week ago, the help from the Fed (right on cue) lifted XLF +3.9 pct. This week, the Fed and other G-20 central bankers kept the pedal to the metal (delayed reaction in the metals that’s all) and XLF was up +3.60 pct W/W to close at 34.50.

On Wednesday, I gave a list of 41 stocks to consider buying at the extreme lows the market was giving up. Ten of those were big banks and brokers, and they turned very positive.

Some winners this week, despite a couple rough days, were JP Morgan (JPM +6.24 pct), Citigroup (C +3.85 pct), Morgan Stanley (MS +3.66 pct) and Merrill Lynch (MER +2.59 pct).

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ADSK	44.90	2.29	5.37%	4.10%	10.95%	0.81%	10.70%	3.70%	6.50%	28.32%
QCOM	37.54	0.61	1.65%	-0.92%	-7.92%	-12.70%	0.21%	-16.24%	-11.59%	0.91%
INTC	23.70	0.60	2.60%	-1.17%	-0.88%	-3.46%	16.46%	6.61%	11.63%	27.76%
ADBE	40.32	0.36	0.90%	-1.80%	4.05%	-3.17%	1.00%	-4.95%	0.12%	18.55%
ORCL	19.35	0.21	1.10%	-3.20%	-1.58%	-6.11%	10.51%	1.57%	15.87%	22.39%
INFY	47.13	1.33	2.90%	-3.82%	-1.73%	-12.25%	-15.57%	-7.82%	-21.24%	8.30%
SAP	52.47	0.87	1.69%	-4.13%	-2.27%	-4.98%	-1.37%	14.14%	11.38%	9.93%
CSCO	29.99	0.69	2.35%	-4.46%	1.80%	1.35%	8.11%	14.12%	8.98%	43.84%
SNDK	53.67	2.05	3.97%	-6.06%	0.45%	-5.78%	28.64%	21.78%	33.77%	4.54%
CTSH	74.95	0.07	0.09%	-8.97%	-9.54%	-12.69%	-3.61%	-2.43%	-19.99%	6.74%

SMH (semi-conductors) dropped -3.05 pct W/W to close at 36.55.

SanDisk (SNDK -6.06 pct) took away much of the prior week’s gain (+6.9 pct), and Cognizant Technology (CTSH) dropped -9.0 pct.

AutoDesk (ADSK +4.1 pct) was the winner this week and also was very strongly up the prior week (+6.6 pct).

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) dropped a little (-0.31 pct W/W) to close at 32.08.

Verizon (VZ -1.3 pct) and AT&T (T +0.5 pct) were mixed, but T had a huge day Friday, which caused the W/W gain.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

This week, XLU (Utilities) lost -0.97 pct, possibly because the prior week was so positive (+2.79 pct) and possibly over-bought. XLU closed Friday at 38.63.

If central bankers keep pushing liquidity here, XLU, like the Financials (XLF) will be a beneficiary.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.28	3.68	4.38	4.80
6 Month	3.93	4.08	4.60	4.85
2 Year	4.15	4.20	4.46	4.85
3 Year	4.23	4.23	4.50	4.86
5 Year	4.35	4.34	4.59	4.93
10 Year	4.68	4.66	4.81	5.03
30 Year	4.98	4.96	5.05	5.12

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.62	3.60	3.64	3.75
2yr AAA	3.60	3.59	3.61	3.70
2yr A	3.67	3.65	3.68	3.74
5yr AAA	3.72	3.71	3.72	3.80
5yr AA	3.81	3.82	3.79	3.87
5yr A	4.07	4.06	4.07	3.91
10yr AAA	4.06	4.05	4.01	4.05
10yr AA	4.07	4.05	4.00	4.08
10yr A	4.26	4.26	4.23	4.14
20yr AAA	.50	4.47	4.53	4.59
20yr AA	.7U	4.35	4.41	4.51
20yr A	.8	4.32	4.37	4.22

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.83	4.90	5.10	5.29
2yr A	4.89	5.09	5.22	5.35
5yr AAA	5.08	5.10	5.32	5.49
5yr AA	5.30	5.31	5.54	5.62
5yr A	5.30	5.31	5.72	5.68
10yr AAA	5.50	5.61	5.95	5.89
10yr AA	5.85	5.85	5.87	6.00
10yr A	6.02	5.97	6.07	6.11
20yr AAA	6.20	6.22	6.30	6.27
20yr AA	6.31	6.33	6.41	6.24
20yr A	6.33	6.36	6.44	6.41

Last week I reported: “The yield tables at Yahoo Finance show the exact same numbers as last week. So they are clearly wrong. I removed Table 8 for that reason. This week, yields dropped and prices rose. That’s what happens when central bankers intervene to pump money into the system.”

Central bankers had to take control of a market suffering a crisis in confidence. I think even more liquidity is needed if the Carry Trade is to carry on rallying markets.

The long bond (30-year US Treasury) has moved in yield from 5.12 pct four weeks ago to 4.98 pct on Friday. So bond prices have lifted a bit at the long end. However, most of the action is at the short-end (2-years and T-Bills).

The 3-month T-Bill yield has collapsed from 4.80 pct of four weeks ago to just 3.28 pct on Friday. That is the result of panic, both in the form of traders fleeing to cash and to central bankers and the Fed making cash available by doing such things as opening the Discount Window with a major drop in rates.

I haven’t seen such an extreme move in T-Bill rates in many years, if ever.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

As I say, “Nothing new here. These markets have been burdened more by the fallout of the “Liar Loan” fiasco than by interest rates. In fact, lower rates will not help these companies if they hold asset-backed securities of dubious quality.”

Fannie and Freddie were kept out of the sub-prime lending business and they have held up. This week FRE was up +2.82 pct W/W and FNM was up +1.19 pct.

On the other hand, Countrywide Financial (CFC), the biggest player in the sub-prime market, had to seek a short-term cash bail-out of $11 billion in order to stay afloat.
CFC plunged -23.1 pct this week, and is now down -37.5 pct over 4 weeks and -48.1 pct over 13 weeks (ie, one quarter). It’s not surprising that the once effusive CEO of Countrywide – the man who personally earns about as much compensation per year as many countries have GDP, and who is usually a Financial Entertainment Media regular Talking Head, is nowhere to be seen.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FRE	63.70	2.64	4.32%	2.82%	14.36%	6.17%	-6.17%	-5.18%	-3.59%	4.72%
FNM	67.25	1.97	3.02%	1.19%	18.75%	4.75%	12.35%	6.76%	12.68%	36.69%
IEF	83.03	0.06	0.07%	1.17%	0.47%	2.05%	0.42%	0.74%	0.51%	1.59%
TIP	100.49	0.33	0.33%	1.12%	0.19%	1.11%	1.27%	0.56%	1.04%	-0.43%
TLT	86.79	-0.35	-0.40%	0.91%	-1.30%	1.07%	-2.56%	-0.82%	-2.09%	0.31%
AGG	98.89	0.22	0.22%	0.78%	0.18%	0.50%	-1.02%	-0.85%	-1.32%	-0.05%
SHY	80.93	0.07	0.09%	0.61%	0.61%	0.92%	1.11%	1.01%	1.04%	1.23%
CFC	21.43	2.48	13.09%	-23.08%	-14.28%	-37.50%	-49.11%	-48.12%	-48.61%	-38.24%

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Ah yes, “Bad debts, foreclosures, the end of the “liar loan” practices, Fed tightening, whatever; this consumer lending game died. “

Just remember, “If the Average Joe cannot pay up at the end of the month, it is HB&B that forecloses.”

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB index lost -1.53 pct this week to close at 306.45. On July 14 (Week #28), $CRB was over 325. I warned that the Fed didn’t like that.

The 50-day Moving Average is now at 316.75 and the 200-day MA is 310.24 (which in the latter case is the same as a week ago).

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

The Crude Oil futures market ($WTIC in the US for Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) gained +0.49 pct this week after a Hurricane Dean-inspired rally of +1.34 pct on Friday, to close at 71.82.

A week ago, I reported: “… In six trading sessions, $WTIC has dropped -7.31 pct, which is huge. I wonder if the Fed traders were helping that process or was it that independent traders did it all by themselves?”

At this point, I think it was HB&B raising cash to cover hedge fund losses, and the independent traders winding down their Carry Trades by selling higher beta securities and taking profits where they could. That helped the Fed, but it is possible the Fed took little or no action on their own. I’d like to see a stream of data on all Fed trading so the public can see what HB&B can see on their trading desks.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is 72.00 and the 200d MA is 63.88, so Oil is now sitting right at the 50d MA line, which is a measure of technical support or resistance depending on where the current price moves. If DEAN turns north into the northern Gulf of Mexico, into the heart of the US energy industry, that storm would push up the price of Oil.

The latest (Sunday am ET) reports from the US National Weather Service Hurricane Center, however, show that DEAN is powering through south of Jamaica and likely to move into central Mexico, which is away from the offshore drilling on onshore refinery infrastructure of the US.

That ought to help soften oil prices on Monday, which in turn would lead to stories the broad equity rally of the end of last week can now continue. WMT will likely move up if those fuel prices can come down. And CCL will recover as well for that reason plus the passing of DEAN from their cruising playground in the Caribbean.

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

This week, $Gold (the near futures) dropped -2.17 pct W/W to 666.80. On Friday, there was a rally of +1.34 pct.

The 50day MA is 665.86 and the 200d MA is 657.31. That means that the current price is right on the MA support.

A week ago Thursday evening, I published a large report on gold and the miners. The next day, there was a spark to the gold market, which then went out as HB&B and traders rushed to cash.

Now with a Discount Rate so low, I have to believe it is time for the gold market to start a rally, with bullion back to 690 and beyond (perhaps 750 before the cycle runs out). The goldminer shares are late to rally among all sectors and industries, but if the broad market rallies, and the liquidity injections and Discount Window status remains unchanged, then I believe the miners have to start moving higher. If so, look for confirmation in a falling $USD – hopefully a mildly deflating USD so that the Fed and other central bankers don’t come rushing in to prop it up.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

$SILVER dropped -1.07/oz (-8.31 pct W/W) to close at 11.80. Two weeks ago, spot silver was 13.16. It is now over-sold and will likely lead the PM rally (if that actually happens).

The 50d MA is 12.93 and the 200d MA is 13.26, so $SILVER (near futures) is now quite bearish. I still believe that spot silver needs to move above the 200d MA (13.26) for any upside break-out. Do I think that’s going to happen soon? Yes.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

$PLAT plunged -47.00/0z (-3.67 pct W/W) to 1233.20.

The 50d MA is 1300.92 and the 200d MA is 1239.42. I don’t see how the 5-day price can drop -47.00 and the 200d MA can lift by almost +5, but I won’t question StockCharts data without proof.

The positive here though is that $SILVER (+2.65 pct), like $GOLD (+1.34 pct), gained strongly on Friday. Maybe that was the kick-start.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

$PALL dropped -28.30/0z (-7.80 pct W/W) to 334.75. That is a horrid two weeks for the PM Bulls/

The 50d MA is 369.16 and the 200d MA is 355.40.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

Copper ran very weak again this week for a huge loss over 11 sessions.

$COPPER (near futures contracts) dropped -21.20 (-6.31 pct W/W) to close at 314.75. A week ago the loss was -11.95 (-3.43 pct), and the Friday before that -2.63 pct.

So, the past 11 sessions have been very bearish for $COPPER, but I think that has to do with liquidity problems of hedge funds that were hedged in T-Bills.

The 50d MA is 347.25 and the 200d MA is 317.20, so the current price is now below both the 50d and 200d MA.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NEM	39.89	0.45	1.14%	-4.82%	-2.47%	-7.23%	-9.75%	2.10%	-13.77%	-21.35%
GFI	14.40	0.73	5.34%	-4.89%	-7.63%	-20.04%	-21.44%	-15.29%	-17.67%	-26.38%
BVN	35.84	2.27	6.76%	-6.62%	-9.10%	-17.59%	29.81%	9.84%	20.43%	28.97%
MDG	24.78	1.91	8.35%	-9.06%	-8.22%	-19.07%	-5.74%	-0.24%	-19.70%	-9.16%
ABX	30.52	0.65	2.14%	-10.99%	-8.10%	-11.54%	2.31%	3.63%	-2.46%	-1.39%
KGC	11.31	0.40	3.67%	-13.66%	-10.87%	-20.35%	-0.96%	-12.26%	-14.71%	-10.02%
GG	21.67	0.11	0.51%	-13.73%	-12.34%	-21.57%	-20.74%	-6.39%	-23.18%	-23.56%
AUY	9.630	0.510	5.59%	-14.40%	-9.58%	-23.69%	-21.90%	-27.81%	-32.04%	0.73%
AEM	38.36	1.17	3.15%	-14.76%	-10.54%	-14.98%	-1.44%	11.51%	-3.98%	10.07%

This week the goldminers were crushed. The $XAU plunged -10.37 pct W/W to 129.36. The 50d MA is 142.99 and the 200d MA is 140.12.

Some of the selling is on account of under-margined stock accounts that were having a terrible week being sold out by HB&B, particularly the small cap loaded accounts of the retail trader.

On Friday, from a hugely over-sold condition, the $XAU rallied sharply (+2.96 pct).

Western Goldfields (TSX:WGI and NDQ:WDGFF) was one to rally.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The $USD, which is a trade-weighted index we used to call the Morgan Dollar, rallied by a further +0.86 pct W/W to close at 81.40, and that was after a significant loss on Friday (-0.42 pct). The prior week, $USD had gained +0.64 pct as well.

I still think the sad sack USD will soon fall into the high 70’s (as in just under 80 cents on the index).

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

The Euro ($XEU) had a bad week if you were bullish. $XEU dropped -1.53 pct W/W to close at 134.87.

The 50d MA is 136.03 and the 200d MA is 133.11. I really don’t know how StockCharts can show higher 50d and 200d MA’s when the currency plunged this week.

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

The Pound sterling dropped -4.09 (-2.02 pct W/W) to close at 198.27.

The 50d MA is 201.50 and the 200d MA is 197.32, which by Stockcharts logic are rises from last week’s 201.43 and 197.06 respectively. Go figure, because I can’t.

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lifted again this week, but this week the Yen skyrocketed +3.82 pct to 87.77 up from last week’s 84.54 against the USD.

Per StockCharts, the 50d MA is 82.73 and the 200d MA is 83.72, for what it’s worth.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar dropped -0.98 pct W/W against the USD to close at 94.06.

The 50d MA is 94.54 and the 200d MA is 89.24. Maybe.

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International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

This one you really need to check.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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International Equity Markets Review

The indexes across Asia-Pacific equity markets were all down sharply on Friday.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow sold down -5.42 pct (-875 points) to 15273 on Friday. The 16600 technical support level had been broken previously and this was not unexpected as the Carry Trade was being unwound as the world faced a liquidity crisis.

The Yen strength is really hurting the Japanese exporters, including the auto manufacturers. As I now expect the red-hot Yen to cool, I would be bottom-fishing the top quality auto makers.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Friday, Singapore was down a large -0.68 pct to 3130.7.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .

The Hong Kong market has pulled back to below the first level of support. Friday, the index lost a further -1.38 pct to close at 20387, but there is technical support at this level going back to January 2007.

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

On Friday, the Bombay Stock Exchange BSE 30 Sensex index dropped -1.51 pct to 14141.5. It has dropped through support, but if the Yen weakens in the next day or so, I think the Sensex index is likely to rally.

Download the Deepak Lalwani “Confidence and Optimism” Report on India .

Download Astaire Weekly Report on India (dated August 13) courtesy of Deepak Lalwani.

This week I received a letter from Kaushik Gala, now of Bangalore India. Kaushik started a popular blog while working in Austin Texas as a young engineer in the information technology industry. His GalaTime blog became an instant hit with Forbes in 2005, and he has re-started it in India. I wish him well.

Hi Bill,

I saw your comment on your recent post - thanks for mentioning me, my blog & my newest venture - Moneyoga. In brief, we want to popularize quantitative investing & trading in India, since most of what goes on is highly discretionary, and you have these so-called gurus giving out stock tips on TV w/o too much concern about past record, credibility and such. The one issue is that stock market investing is still in very early stages in India, and for us to try and sell this quantitative approach to the majority is an uphill task. Hence, we will have to try out different revenue models - web-based community w/ ad revenue combined with paid subscriptions for active traders and/or institutions, etc. Unfortunately, neither of us has a track record in the financial industry - so we can't turn our approach into a money management venture, yet.

Even getting good quality data at a reasonable price is not easy. So we are building the back end first - data collection, database creation, strategy platform w/ backtesting, etc. We hope to have a prototype up by October, along with a basic investment community. Myself & my partner are currently funding it (no salaries, working from home, our own money for hardware, data, etc.). But we are also looking for investors, since once the prototype is up, we'll need funds to scale in terms of infrastructure, employees, intra-day data feeds, etc.

I will keep you posted on our progress. I am glad to have finally taken this step - thanks for all your support & emails over the years.

Regards,
Kaushik

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

The All Ordinaries index of Australia lost -0.75 pct Friday after a series of losses due to (i) the stronger Yen/Carry Trade issues, and (ii) pullbacks in commodity prices.

And the Aussie dollar is falling with that strength in the Yen.

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Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

A sea change to green on Friday. How about those central bankers?

Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

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The FTSE rallied Friday by +3.50 pct, which was a rocket, to close at 6064. Let’s say that the technical support at 6000 was severely tested and managed to hang tough. I think a cycle bottom has been put in for a couple months.

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Here is the latest chart for the German DAX index.

The German equity market in Frankfurt lifted +1.49 pct on Friday to 7378.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

Students of the Dow are looking at whether or not the 12750-12800 technical support will hold here.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The 12-month chart shows the technical resistance levels that traders must push through if the Bulls are to stay in control. It will be interesting to see if the tech-strong Nasdaq can hold up here while the financials-heavy NYSE (and Dow 30) undergo their credit market shake-out.

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A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JPM	47.01	1.54	3.39%	6.24%	7.70%	-1.16%	-2.21%	-10.56%	-8.27%	3.41%
C	48.81	1.26	2.65%	3.85%	6.76%	-3.78%	-11.66%	-10.93%	-9.78%	0.49%
MMM	87.83	2.43	2.85%	2.16%	0.31%	-2.64%	12.23%	1.34%	14.30%	23.36%
AIG	65.96	2.01	3.14%	1.99%	7.01%	-4.46%	-8.58%	-8.64%	-5.18%	3.74%
JNJ	62.02	0.39	0.63%	1.42%	2.43%	0.37%	-6.60%	-1.15%	-5.33%	-3.44%
UTX	73.82	2.74	3.85%	1.01%	-0.15%	-2.91%	17.53%	6.41%	7.48%	19.16%
GE	38.45	1.25	3.36%	0.58%	1.02%	-4.16%	1.26%	5.26%	7.19%	13.35%
T	39.05	1.13	2.98%	0.46%	-1.01%	-0.03%	11.73%	-5.36%	4.19%	28.24%
MO	67.59	1.23	1.85%	0.30%	1.49%	-3.17%	4.11%	-3.03%	4.48%	11.53%
PG	65.35	1.32	2.06%	-0.06%	3.93%	5.15%	1.26%	3.12%	0.43%	8.30%
HPQ	47.15	1.10	2.39%	-0.13%	-0.55%	-2.86%	13.29%	5.08%	10.24%	34.14%
PFE	23.94	0.55	2.35%	-0.21%	1.83%	-3.86%	-8.94%	-12.50%	-8.97%	-11.33%
XOM	84.14	3.47	4.30%	-0.44%	2.51%	-8.48%	13.53%	2.86%	11.75%	23.59%
KO	54.45	1.07	2.00%	-0.96%	2.20%	2.33%	12.08%	4.31%	13.75%	23.25%
INTC	23.70	0.60	2.60%	-1.17%	-0.88%	-3.46%	16.46%	6.61%	11.63%	27.76%
VZ	40.80	0.57	1.42%	-1.28%	-4.56%	-3.50%	7.88%	-3.18%	5.97%	19.19%
DIS	32.68	0.10	0.31%	-1.45%	-3.60%	-4.83%	-4.44%	-9.20%	-6.33%	9.30%
IBM	110.90	1.21	1.10%	-1.54%	-0.88%	-3.41%	14.01%	5.31%	12.03%	39.73%
MSFT	28.25	0.44	1.58%	-1.60%	-2.45%	-9.34%	-5.39%	-8.81%	-1.60%	14.37%
MRK	49.62	0.16	0.32%	-2.48%	-1.33%	1.22%	12.72%	-5.41%	12.06%	27.79%
BA	95.93	3.19	3.44%	-2.55%	-7.97%	-7.64%	7.58%	-0.89%	5.49%	22.06%
DD	47.31	-0.62	-1.29%	-2.63%	2.07%	-10.09%	-3.53%	-8.86%	-9.83%	17.07%
HON	54.46	0.34	0.63%	-2.77%	-6.39%	-10.66%	20.75%	-6.46%	13.86%	39.21%
AXP	58.89	0.72	1.24%	-3.11%	2.44%	-8.71%	-2.44%	-7.35%	-0.22%	10.05%
MCD	47.57	-0.50	-1.04%	-3.72%	-1.96%	-8.68%	8.43%	-8.97%	4.96%	31.26%
AA	33.29	1.37	4.29%	-4.04%	-7.99%	-22.73%	13.50%	-14.97%	-4.28%	16.77%
WMT	43.49	-0.01	-0.02%	-5.60%	-4.46%	-9.51%	-8.54%	-7.68%	-10.29%	-2.55%
CAT	72.64	-0.36	-0.49%	-6.33%	-8.00%	-12.69%	18.77%	-2.94%	7.34%	4.73%
HD	33.31	0.89	2.75%	-7.27%	-7.96%	-15.44%	-18.89%	-13.03%	-19.62%	-4.06%
GM	30.55	-0.22	-0.71%	-9.75%	-4.65%	-12.51%	3.74%	-3.29%	-15.93%	-0.03%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The two reports from Value Line this week are on (Cara 100) Disney (DIS) and (former Cara 100) 3M (MMM).

(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Disney…

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 15: next one is due Sep. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 8: next one is due Sep. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug 10: next one is due Nov 9)

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Wrap up:

I’m glad to see the Discourse continuing to grow in depth and intensity. We may all be on the same page as it were, but that sure doesn’t mean we all share the same perspective on markets. Thank goodness.

Have a nice Sunday. Wherever you are, I know we are connected.

Time now to get out and enjoy the day here in paradise.

BTW, if you have to ask if this is work, then you are not a trader. I’d much rather be doing this than walking a golf course, but that’s me. Some people call me “eccentric”. LOL

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