As I pointed out in the Discourse this weekend, there are many reasons why I feel there is strength in the old Bull yet. In fact I think he’ll be around until mid-October.

Until then, I expect more of the same wildly gyrating market action.

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The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Friday session Cara 100 gainers.

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Here are Cara 100 losers on Friday.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Friday session.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes, ie, Money Flow, especially when markets start trending.

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Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

The folks at KNOBIAS, Inc provided the Cara 100 watchlists.

For the losers on Friday, Hovnanian (HOV -9.4 pct) and Whole Foods Market (WFMI -5.8 pct) were up to their usual volatility. They require a lot of study.

OptionsXpress (OXPS) is different. It may have dipped with the retail electronic brokers on concerns that a Bear market typically sees a drying up of order flow, which leads to lower earnings. Their 10Q filed Friday looks good.

Since I have been asked why Hovnanian remains a Cara 100 company, I suppose it’s because the company was always well managed and produced exceptional results. It’s also because of their diversification across the US and the fact they build quality homes.

This past year has been exceptionally hard on the industry and of course on this company, but their long-term track record is exceptional. I believe they are financially strong enough to weather this storm.

Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., founded in 1959 by Kevork S. Hovnanian, Chairman, is headquartered in Red Bank, New Jersey. The Company is one of the nation's largest homebuilders with operations in Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. The Company's homes are marketed and sold under the trade names K. Hovnanian Homes, Matzel & Mumford, Forecast Homes, Parkside Homes, Brighton Homes, Parkwood Builders, Windward Homes, Cambridge Homes, Town & Country Homes, Oster Homes, First Home Builders of Florida and CraftBuilt Homes. As the developer of K. Hovnanian's Four Seasons communities, the Company is also one of the nation's largest builders of active adult homes. Additional information on Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., including a summary investment profile and the Company's 2006 annual report, can be accessed through the "Investor Relations" section of Hovnanian Enterprises' website at http://www.khov.com.

Quarterly results for the Q ending July 31 will be reported Sept 7. Those results are expected to be poor, as they have been. But a quality company in a cyclical industry such as home-building goes through ups and downs. It was May through July 2005 when I argued traders ought to be selling the home-builders. They were all in the Distribution Zone (which I'll explain later), amid wild hype by Financial Entertainment Media. HOV at the time was well above 60 on its way to a peak in the low 70’s. Using my system, you could easily have been out at say 65. It’s now 14.70, and hit a low of 10.83 on Aug. 1. Two weeks ago, you would have been back in (or closed shorts) in the 11’s.

As an aside, I’ll have to set up a page of Cara sayings and definitions to make things easier for new readers. You’ll see that it’s pretty simple stuff, but when you don’t know it at all, then it looks quite complex.

Presently, for HOV, the RSI-7 for Monthly, Weekly and Daily is 23.3/35.6/54.7. When a Buy Alert was issued earlier in the month, a +30 pct gain could have been earned in just a few days. But, when offered, traders need to take profits of that magnitude.

My advice is that if when entering a new position you can get a gain of +26 pct or more in a year, you ought to consider that is a Warren Buffet number, and if you can ever do as well as Warren, you will be a top 2 pct trader. So, a +30 pct gain in a week is basically found money in a turbulent trading environment, and in this case the gain was in a stock in an industry that is in horrid shape.

But this is an industry made worse by the public’s attention on foreclosures and the huge losses being taken in the sub-prime market. In situations like that, you have to think that much of that flash gain in HOV was from a short squeeze. So, you should have had your finger on the Sell button every day in any case.

My point is you are managing a portfolio. You never have to hit the top or the bottom price (in fact you can’t); it’s the percentage gains (and percentage losses avoided) that count.

By focusing that portfolio on a watchlist of say 100 stocks, you will get to know them, like family. You will see that each stock is traded within its own community. Many of the traders are professional, and much of the trading is via programmed trading. So you need to focus. That means reading all the news. Reading the Value Line or other Wall Street research reports. Watching price and volume closely whenever the stock gets into the Accumulation Zone or the Distribution Zone, which is decision time.

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Hovnanian [GICS 25, Cara 100]
(HOV: Yahoo Finance file)
(HOV: StockChart chart)
(HOV: Billcara2 chart)
(HOV: ADVFN Financial Data)

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OptionsXpress (OXPS) filed their 10Q on Friday. The stock dropped -4.4 pct. I can’t see any problem with the latest financial summaries. Maybe it costs a lot more in advertising to get new clients, but the business remains good, rapidly growing in fact. It will remain a Cara 100 company.

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Whole Foods Market (WFMI) is another volatile stock in the Cara 100. On Friday, the stock dropped -5.8 pct on the day. I think the stock was down after management extended the time of the tender offer for Wild Oats (OAT) to August 15.

I noted that the new lows were mostly dipping on high volume. Kohl's Corp posted flat July same-store sales, missing the company's forecast for a mid-single-digit increase. Chairman and CEO Larry Montgomery said, "We were disappointed in the performance of seasonal businesses such as shorts, tees and tanks." The quote is taken from a Wall St Journal story on Friday that was headlined “Shoppers Held Back in July”.

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Garmin (GRMN), another Cara 100 company that I have written about more than usual recently has put out a Sell Alert after being in the Distribution Zone for some time. To confirm that, please check the RSI-7 tables from “Sergey” on Thursday and then for Friday. The Daily RSI-7 has plunged from 85 (Wed) to 75 (Thurs) to 65 (Fri). As it dropped below 70 at about $100 (which is a Sell Alert), it had been down over 4 pct in less than three days, and that’s where, with Daily RSI-7 falling rapidly with the Monthly and Weekly RSI-7 values up at 91 to 94, when you protect your profit.

I absolutely love this company, Garmin. It’s in the technology sector, and the scientific and technical instruments industry. The products are based on Global Positioning System (GPS) technology.

GRMN has had a terrific run for the past couple years, but the move since the mid-April low saw a double in four months. If the broad market heads down from here, I expect traders will take profits. If it heads higher, say to Dow 14000, then GRMN may have another run. But, the stock is pricey. The PE is 33.2 (ttm).

Remember, last October, when there had been an earnings disappointment, the stock price plunged -14 pct immediately. Moreover, the share price then was only about 55. On Wednesday, it hit $105.75.

This is a company that has terrific margins, sales growth, returns on assets and equity, and so forth. It is financially strong.

Garmin [GICS 45, Cara 100]
(GRMN: Yahoo Finance file)
(GRMN: StockChart chart)
(GRMN: Billcara2 monthly chart)
(GRMN: ADVFN Financial Data)

Daily and weekly data charts for GRMN:

Daily

Weekly

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

Here are the charts of up to a dozen stocks with RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from Friday: Please note that a week ago Friday there were zero above 70 on the Daily RSI-7 data, but 62 of 100 below 30. That was the most extreme daily reading (positive or negative) since I started to blog in April 2004.

RSI > 70 (2)

RSI < 30 (12 of 17) (WITHOUT ASD POST SPIN-OFF)

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(When available), here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for Friday:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David” and “Sergey”.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices now stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (at what rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

This week saw 0 GREEN industries, and 20 RED (compared to 23 last week). During the Feb-March pullback, the tally never exceeded 6 industries RED.

If the stricter “inertia”criterion were used (the 13 wk. MA instead of the 26wk.) NO industries would escape the RED, whereas 3 would have last week. By this measure, market internals have deteriorated this week to their lowest point of the year.

Of the Cara 100 components, 16 are green (last week: 9) , 55 red (last week: 66).

Cara 100 “Greens”

Cara 100 “Reds”

Components of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):

DJIA – 3/16 (last week: 5/17)

Dow65 (indu&transport&utility) – 12/33 (last week: 6/43)

SP500 – 75/288 (last week: 39/378)

NDX – 27/44 (last week: 19/56)

RUT – 513/884 (last week: 158/1529).

NOTE: Excepting DJIA, the components of all other indices above have more greens and fewer reds than last week!

The following major indices themselves are RED on their weekly charts: DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Comp, Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500. The CRB index is RED.

Interestingly, silver stocks turned from red last week to GREEN, while gold stocks remained RED. The US dollar index is neutral.

/Jock

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week

The US equity market got shaky during the afternoon CNBC interview of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. But, also, at 1pm that day there was the auction of 10-year Notes, and yields lifted +7 basis points, which may have been a sign that the auction did not go well. Not being a bond trader, I will pass on that. But then overnight there was a news report that Bank of America had to pay a very large rate increase to secure its borrowing needs. Then when BNP Paribas announced trading restrictions on three high-yield, high-risk funds, that sent the alarm bells off.

The G-20 central banks stepped up to the plate with a reported, unprecented two-day $339 billion infusion of capital into the system, buying debt securities from the banks. By the end of the day Friday, a chaotic plunge in capital market prices had been averted.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

A week ago, the DJIA dropped to 13182. This week, with all the volatility involved, the DJIA closed at 13239.54.

A week ago, I remarked:

The Bulls are worried. Most people, in fact, are because they are long stocks, and most stocks had a terrible day on Friday.

But, look back to Tuesday. The DJIA plummeted worse on Tuesday afternoon and then recovered, with triple-digit gains on Wednesday and Thursday.

So, with Friday’s knock-down, why are traders so nervous this time? Is it only because it is the most recent time? And, before a weekend?

If that is the case, then possibly traders are too caught up in the moment, as usual.

This week, I remarked early Thursday morning that I believed that HB&B and the Financial Entertainment Media were co-operating to throw a scare into the Fed to have them drop rates. The shares of Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) have been taking a shellacking. The Financials Sector (XLF) is the worst sector performance over 3, 6 and 12 months, by far.

After HB&B screamed murder, aided and abetted by CNBC’s James Cramer, Larry Kudlow and Crew, the Fed and other central banks of the G-20 nations then rallied to the cause (help their brothers?). They injected massive reserves ($339 billion in two days is MASSIVE) into the system to alleviate the pressure of a huge sell-off in stocks.

Nevertheless, despite 100 pct indication from futures markets that the Fed rate will be lowered at the September meeting, I don’t think that will happen. Of course, that would mean the Dow has to be flat to positive, or else with falling stock and bond prices, HB&B and their media friends will be screaming murder again.

But, for now, it’s not that bad a market. For the week, eighteen Dow Industrials were gainers and just 12 were losers. There were seven of ten sector ETF's up, and just two pennies away from being eight against two. (My two cents worth.)

Moreover, the Dow well under-performed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 Small Cap index was significantly ahead of all of them.

This truly was not a bad week, price wise. It’s the extreme volatility that whacks you out. We all know that the next one may be the big one!

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq had a relatively good week, actually, rising +1.34 pct W/W. And the Russell 2000 was up +4.42 pct W/W. If that’s a shakey week, then traders must be expecting miracles every week! Let’s get serious.

The point is, don’t let the noise in the media scare you. You are traders. The media is trying to scare the public. By now, you ought to know better. We’re not the ones who dress in clown suits.

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Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

This week there were seven ETF’s up and three down. We came within a tick of an 8-2 score. That’s how “horrible” a week it was.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	33.30	-0.20	-0.60%	3.87%	-0.15%	-9.21%	-9.80%	-10.84%	-10.39%	1.80%
XLU	39.01	-0.69	-1.74%	2.79%	3.89%	-4.27%	5.95%	-7.12%	2.55%	14.90%
XLE	67.72	0.36	0.53%	2.42%	-1.14%	-8.42%	19.69%	6.23%	15.98%	16.52%
SMH	37.70	0.10	0.27%	1.64%	-0.08%	-6.20%	12.30%	0.48%	11.21%	18.78%
XLP	26.87	-0.38	-1.39%	0.83%	1.63%	-2.75%	2.25%	-0.96%	1.32%	7.96%
XLB	38.71	-0.44	-1.12%	0.75%	-0.51%	-9.91%	11.85%	-1.63%	5.77%	24.43%
IYH	67.42	-0.29	-0.43%	0.40%	0.57%	-5.18%	1.44%	-5.20%	-1.62%	7.55%
XLY	36.36	-0.16	-0.44%	-0.03%	-1.84%	-9.21%	-5.61%	-7.10%	-7.86%	13.48%
XLI	38.58	-0.40	-1.03%	-1.46%	-1.20%	-5.28%	9.51%	1.79%	7.62%	22.83%
IYZ	32.18	0.15	0.47%	-1.92%	-3.22%	-7.58%	8.50%	-1.41%	5.72%	23.67%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CVX	83.42	2.31	2.85%	2.96%	-2.09%	-10.62%	17.54%	6.69%	13.78%	23.86%
XOM	84.51	0.91	1.09%	2.96%	-1.26%	-6.44%	14.03%	6.45%	12.35%	21.82%
SU	89.92	0.30	0.33%	0.28%	0.85%	-5.56%	21.66%	9.65%	24.11%	6.38%
TOT	73.63	-0.17	-0.23%	-0.31%	-4.31%	-15.35%	3.75%	-0.34%	7.74%	9.24%
PBR	60.30	-1.61	-2.60%	-2.38%	-5.10%	-12.74%	21.01%	21.45%	26.49%	27.03%
CEO	110.65	-2.03	-1.80%	-2.54%	-1.96%	-7.93%	17.38%	27.80%	33.38%	23.49%
ECA	59.90	0.54	0.91%	-2.54%	-0.94%	-6.57%	32.11%	6.38%	23.07%	10.27%
IMO	43.10	0.70	1.65%	-3.12%	-6.71%	-11.61%	20.86%	8.45%	20.06%	8.70%
STO	27.67	0.02	0.07%	-3.76%	-3.39%	-17.16%	7.71%	-0.36%	6.22%	-4.32%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

XLE gained +2.42 pct W/W to 67.72, and even Friday saw a gain (+0.53 pct).
Previously there had been a 4-week loss of -7.58 pct.

A week ago, I wrote here: “As I see it, Big Oil in the US (XOM -4.1 pct) and CVX (-4.9 pct) were the culprits this week, and half the loss of the past four weeks was taken on Friday. That could mean that the market was being set up for a rally attempt on Monday. You see, I saw the same thing happening with the other big Dow mega-caps, General Electric (GE) and Citigroup (C), which had losses on Friday that put these stocks underwater for the week. Selling the stock and buying the call options is a bullish move, if that’s what happened. The selling with a hedged call, if done by HB&B prop desks working together, sets up a short squeeze possibility. These are market situations you must be aware of.”

So what happened? Just as I had figured, the XLE (Oil) jumped +2.42 pct and the Financials (XLF) soared +3.87 pct. Once again, “proof of concept”.

Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM) had terrific weeks. XOM and CVX were both up +2.96 pct. Take a look at Table 2 and see all the rest of the oils. Just another week! Hahaha.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TS	48.83	-0.01	-0.02%	4.70%	2.35%	-5.62%	0.64%	12.25%	4.05%	33.45%
NUE	52.34	-0.26	-0.49%	1.87%	1.02%	-17.92%	-3.96%	-19.23%	-15.10%	2.09%
PKX	133.95	-3.09	-2.25%	-1.54%	-2.99%	-10.67%	68.64%	18.73%	46.62%	120.13%
RIO	45.34	-1.54	-3.28%	-3.04%	-3.82%	-12.71%	57.32%	4.45%	36.28%	98.08%
BHP	58.75	-1.85	-3.05%	-3.26%	-4.22%	-13.55%	51.14%	14.17%	35.34%	42.32%
TCK	40.83	0.48	1.19%	-3.27%	-6.29%	-17.76%	-41.04%	-50.50%	-42.06%	-39.78%
AA	34.69	-0.75	-2.12%	-4.12%	-7.27%	-26.74%	18.27%	-7.81%	6.67%	19.91%
GGB	23.72	-0.77	-3.14%	-4.20%	-4.24%	-13.90%	44.46%	16.05%	36.79%	50.60%
RTP	250.74	-5.46	-2.13%	-5.90%	-7.61%	-17.56%	22.85%	-10.77%	20.08%	22.07%
MT	58.43	-1.40	-2.34%	-7.39%	-3.66%	-13.04%	43.21%	6.22%	25.23%	81.52%

XLB (Basic Materials) gained +0.75 pct W/W to 38.71, despite Friday’s loss of -1.12 pct.

MittalArcelor (MT) a week ago lifted +4.0 pct, but this week dropped -7.4 pct.

Alcoa (AA) a week ago dropped -3.3 pct, and this week dropped another -4.1 pct.

Tenaris (TS) jumped +4.7 pct after XLE was moving higher. Tenaris makes steel pipe for oilfield drilling. Another South American steelmaker Gerdau (GGB) dropped -4.2 pct.

In the base metals, one of the giants Rio Tinto (RTP) lost 5.9 pct W/W.

Yamana (AUY +5.6 pct) and Agnico-Eagle (+4.9 pct) were the winners this week. Gold Fields (GFI -2.9 pct) added to the loss of a week ago (-4.6 pct). It is likely ready to rally. Smart traders buy the dips in GFI, and don’t hold too long. But, longer term, if the South African Rand is high against the USD (meaning Gold is usually up) and inflation under control in RSA, then GFI is one of the better long-term picks. It’s a Cara 100 company.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ERJ	47.25	-1.79	-3.65%	6.64%	5.85%	-5.61%	15.87%	0.53%	6.01%	37.96%
GE	38.23	-0.71	-1.82%	0.45%	-1.44%	-3.22%	0.68%	3.94%	7.60%	17.02%
FDX	109.04	-0.46	-0.42%	0.44%	-0.54%	-7.00%	-0.67%	1.68%	-3.84%	8.74%
UTX	73.08	0.71	0.98%	-1.15%	-0.29%	-2.56%	16.35%	7.44%	8.14%	20.89%
CAT	77.55	-0.93	-1.19%	-1.79%	2.01%	-8.90%	26.80%	5.07%	19.68%	13.51%
MMM	85.97	-0.89	-1.02%	-1.82%	-4.53%	-4.71%	9.85%	1.56%	15.33%	25.67%
ABB	22.50	-0.61	-2.64%	-3.52%	-0.97%	-9.35%	26.26%	15.03%	21.36%	73.61%
HON	56.01	-0.77	-1.36%	-3.73%	-4.44%	-6.87%	24.19%	-1.49%	21.13%	50.40%
BA	98.44	0.14	0.14%	-5.56%	-5.08%	-3.38%	10.40%	6.08%	9.38%	29.19%

XLI dropped -1.46 pct to close at 38.58. A week ago, XLI was down as well. One issue s that the USD has been strong, which hurts US exports.

So, Boeing (BA -5.6 pct) and Honeywell (HON -3.7 pct) were down, but Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ) was up (+6.6 pct W/W).

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CCL	47.67	0.27	0.57%	9.31%	7.56%	-0.13%	-6.44%	-0.96%	-1.61%	25.75%
EBAY	36.00	-0.59	-1.61%	8.04%	10.53%	6.04%	19.32%	6.32%	7.40%	44.93%
SBUX	28.04	-0.01	-0.04%	6.58%	4.12%	7.56%	-20.45%	-5.08%	-14.95%	-6.41%
TM	119.33	-0.46	-0.38%	0.36%	-0.95%	-5.28%	-11.80%	2.17%	-9.64%	9.11%
NKE	55.78	1.88	3.49%	-1.27%	0.61%	-5.47%	14.23%	4.63%	7.68%	46.40%
DIS	33.16	0.16	0.48%	-2.18%	-1.72%	-3.52%	-3.04%	-7.09%	-3.49%	12.10%
JCP	64.12	-1.18	-1.81%	-2.45%	-6.67%	-15.46%	-17.86%	-16.51%	-22.61%	-2.23%
WHR	94.31	-2.47	-2.55%	-3.54%	-8.11%	-15.27%	11.40%	-15.32%	4.80%	25.00%
BC	25.92	0.12	0.47%	-4.92%	-7.36%	-21.41%	-18.80%	-21.62%	-22.00%	-11.32%

XLY (consumer discretionary spending stocks) was flat (-0.03 pct) to close down exactly one penny to 36.36.

A week ago, the 4-week decline had been -9.46 pct.

The losers this week were Brunswick Corp (BC -4.9 pct) and Whirlpool (WHR -3.5 pct).

The winners (and big ones) were Carnival Cruise (CCL +9.3 pct) – because oil prices dropped -5.3 pct on the week – and Ebay (EBAY +8.0 pct), and also Starbucks (SBUX +6.6 pct), the latter recognizing that their local shop in Harbour Bay Nassau has been host and second home to your host. (LOL)

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WAG	46.42	-0.72	-1.53%	5.28%	4.20%	2.70%	0.76%	4.38%	2.18%	-4.27%
WFMI	42.27	-2.58	-5.75%	4.78%	17.42%	4.37%	-7.06%	2.72%	-7.32%	-12.36%
PG	65.39	0.42	0.65%	3.99%	4.09%	4.36%	1.32%	6.34%	1.49%	8.51%
KO	54.98	-0.87	-1.56%	3.19%	5.16%	3.52%	13.17%	4.76%	15.12%	25.24%
PEP	67.95	-0.55	-0.80%	2.23%	3.49%	1.65%	8.34%	2.41%	6.32%	7.52%
ABV	66.38	0.88	1.34%	1.90%	-5.76%	-11.47%	35.19%	8.59%	29.57%	61.31%
DEO	82.99	0.61	0.74%	1.88%	2.79%	-3.20%	4.35%	-0.95%	4.85%	17.57%
WMT	46.07	-0.38	-0.82%	1.21%	0.28%	-6.27%	-3.11%	-3.52%	-3.96%	2.63%
MO	67.39	-0.28	-0.41%	1.19%	3.41%	-6.01%	3.80%	-0.96%	5.17%	11.46%
BUD	48.73	0.23	0.47%	-0.45%	0.16%	-4.11%	-1.00%	-2.29%	-2.64%	1.08%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) gained +0.83 pct W/W to close at 26.87, which included a loss of -1.39 pct on Friday.

The previous week, Whole Foods Market enjoyed a terrific run, up +12.1 pct W/W, and that continued through this week until Friday. On Friday, the loss was -5.8 pct, but the gain W/W was still +4.8 pct. Friday’s loss was linked, I think, to the Company’s decision to extend the tender offer for Wild Oats (OAT) another week.

Walgreen (WAG) was up +5.3 pct), and Procter & Gamble +4.0 pct.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMY	28.82	0.64	2.27%	2.93%	0.63%	-10.11%	9.25%	-3.55%	1.05%	38.36%
GSK	52.06	-0.39	-0.74%	2.06%	4.90%	-0.91%	-3.25%	-7.73%	-7.66%	-5.52%
PFE	23.99	-0.15	-0.62%	2.04%	0.84%	-7.41%	-8.75%	-10.49%	-9.06%	-7.62%
NVS	54.54	-0.37	-0.67%	1.96%	2.56%	-0.73%	-6.19%	-4.28%	-6.59%	-1.78%
JNJ	61.15	0.32	0.53%	0.99%	2.31%	-3.59%	-7.91%	-2.16%	-6.78%	-3.78%
BMET	45.56	-0.05	-0.11%	0.24%	0.09%	-0.13%	9.86%	5.32%	7.83%	36.98%
UNH	47.48	1.15	2.48%	-0.04%	-3.36%	-10.38%	-9.68%	-10.45%	-6.68%	0.17%
AET	48.69	1.74	3.71%	-1.26%	0.08%	-4.36%	13.55%	-2.05%	14.38%	37.66%
AMGN	50.08	-0.91	-1.78%	-1.61%	-9.96%	-12.03%	-26.78%	-12.65%	-27.44%	-25.15%
DNA	71.67	-1.79	-2.44%	-2.38%	-5.04%	-5.07%	-12.38%	-9.92%	-17.42%	-10.55%

IYH (healthcare) was up +0.43 pct W/W to 67.42.

The winner on the week was BristolMyersSquibb (BMY +2.9 pct), but Genentech (DNA -2.4 pct) was a loser.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
LEH	59.07	-1.08	-1.80%	5.90%	-8.02%	-19.63%	-24.88%	-21.27%	-29.09%	-9.14%
MER	74.12	-0.56	-0.75%	5.81%	-1.51%	-14.35%	-20.82%	-18.57%	-19.97%	1.35%
CS	67.75	-0.95	-1.38%	3.18%	5.69%	-8.45%	-3.37%	-9.46%	-3.65%	0.00%
C	47.00	0.10	0.21%	2.80%	0.06%	-10.51%	-14.93%	-11.65%	-11.99%	-2.02%
UBS	54.95	-0.34	-0.61%	1.61%	1.01%	-10.64%	-10.49%	-11.17%	-13.48%	3.35%
JPM	44.25	0.08	0.18%	1.37%	0.05%	-11.59%	-7.95%	-14.90%	-12.24%	0.45%
GS	180.50	-1.75	-0.96%	0.46%	-6.31%	-18.76%	-10.07%	-19.09%	-15.37%	19.04%
MS	60.03	-1.78	-2.88%	-0.97%	-6.74%	-18.06%	-26.45%	-28.86%	-26.60%	-7.97%
HBC	90.18	-1.15	-1.26%	-1.36%	1.38%	-3.19%	-3.00%	-3.04%	0.85%	-0.41%
DB	132.40	-1.05	-0.79%	-1.38%	-0.18%	-10.79%	-2.17%	-14.51%	-4.35%	21.46%

A week ago, XLF (Financials) took the biggest beating (-3.87 pct), including on Friday (-4.67 pct!). But this week, the help from the Fed (right on cue) lifted XLF +3.9 pct to 33.30.

There was a lot of short covering as US financial giants Lehman Bros (LEH), which had dropped -13.1 pct the previous week, was up +5.9 pct this week, and Merrill Lynch (MER) down -6.9 pct a week earlier, was up +5.8 pct this week.

The loser was Deutsche Bank, down a little (-1.4 pct W/W).

A week ago, I stated, “The over-sold US housing market and the sub-prime debt issue, as the “liar loan” fiasco is being politely labeled, and the fall-out in the credit market, is dragging down the US financial institutions that were behind it all through the piece, and that is eating away at equity market. But, as you know, I am not yet convinced this is enough, in itself, to kill the global equity market…So, I am standing by to see if these interventionists are going to try to pull off another miracle next week. I hardly think this is the Buy-side making the call. After all, we’re flush, and earnings, econ growth rates, etc, etc, are not that bad right now.”

Yes, right on cue, HB&B and the media scream as loud as I have heard for years, and central banks caved in.

And, as I opined a week ago, “As for Cramer screaming for help for his friends (see YouTube), it is laughable. Not just this time, but everytime that the market appears to be headed south, he and his friends, including spinmeister supreme, Larry Kudlow, are pitching manure on the current Fed head, as if the health of the market is his doing. This may be entertaining to you, but it has nothing to do with trading, so I recommend you tune out that kind of noise.”

Well, actually the noise became so loud, the central banks did respond, and it did affect trading. If you question where the Fed money went into the market, you just have to look at Fannie (FNM +17.4 pct W/W), Freddie (FRE +11.2 pct) and Countrywide (CFC +11.4 pct). Wow!

That’s panic buying and short covering rolled into one. Money talks – even if these central bankers have just put it into the system for now, they have to take it back sometime. Otherwise, its Gold 1000 (and USD 70) on your radar screen.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SNDK	57.13	0.67	1.19%	6.92%	4.19%	4.33%	36.94%	29.55%	41.94%	21.53%
ADSK	43.13	-0.50	-1.15%	6.57%	-0.37%	-8.23%	6.34%	1.87%	2.84%	30.11%
CSCO	31.39	-0.01	-0.03%	6.55%	8.35%	5.02%	13.16%	19.40%	13.44%	60.48%
ADBE	41.06	0.31	0.76%	5.96%	1.66%	-0.29%	2.86%	0.98%	9.12%	27.52%
INFY	49.00	-0.30	-0.61%	2.17%	-2.99%	-5.61%	-12.22%	-4.35%	-17.52%	18.59%
SAP	54.73	0.22	0.40%	1.94%	3.52%	4.97%	2.88%	18.11%	18.21%	23.04%
ORCL	19.99	-0.10	-0.50%	1.68%	1.89%	-2.01%	14.16%	8.11%	20.06%	32.12%
INTC	23.98	0.06	0.25%	0.29%	1.87%	-7.66%	17.84%	7.97%	14.08%	35.10%
CTSH	82.34	-2.78	-3.27%	-0.62%	0.98%	-4.46%	5.89%	2.82%	-10.62%	24.29%
QCOM	37.89	-0.33	-0.86%	-7.06%	-9.07%	-16.45%	1.15%	-13.71%	-1.10%	11.77%

SMH (semi-conductors) was up +1.64 pct W/W to close at 37.70.

Qcomm (QCOM) took a hit this week (-7.1 pct) but SanDisk (SNDK +6.9 pct), AutoDesk (ADSK +6.6 pct), Cisco (CSCO +6.6 pct) and Adobe (ADBE +6.0 pct were leaders.

Even I have a new SanDisk 2.0 gig data storage device for backing up files, and a new SanDisk 2.0 gig mp3. Love them both. I also have a SanDisk external storage card for my digital camera. The capacity of the chips keeps going up and the price coming down. Terrific.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

A week ago I wrote: “Verizon (VZ +1.8 pct) and AT&T (T +0.5 pct) were up, but IYZ (telecommunications) dropped -1.32 pct W/W, including a huge -2.87 pct on Friday, to close at 32.81.” This week those losses from Friday continued, extending to Big Tel. VZ dropped -3.3 pct and T -1.5 pct, as the sector ETF I follow (IYZ) was down -1.92 pct W/W to close at 32.18. That was the worst ETF sector performer this week out of the ten.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

A week ago I wrote: “XLU (utilities) gained +1.07 pct W/W to close at 37.95. There was a huge loss on Friday (-3.31 pct), which along with XLF (-4.67 pct) and XLE (-3.53 pct) were the day’s biggest losers.” I also wrote something about a week ago Friday’s losses looking like a set up for this week.

This week, you already know that XLF and XLE were huge gainers, and XLU (Utilities) also gained big (+2.79 pct) to close Friday at 39.01. No other secto performed close to these three. Sometimes you can just see what’s about to happen.

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Bonds & Yields Review

The yield tables at Yahoo Finance show the exact same numbers as last week. So they are clearly wrong. I removed Table 8 for that reason.

This week, yields dropped and prices rose. That’s what happens when central bankers intervene to pump money into the system.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Nothing new here. “These markets have been burdened more by the fallout of the “Liar Loan” fiasco than by interest rates. In fact, lower rates will not help these companies if they hold asset-backed securities of dubious quality.”

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	66.46	0.53	0.80%	17.36%	11.90%	1.11%	11.03%	7.09%	18.09%	38.60%
CFC	27.86	-0.80	-2.79%	11.44%	-6.67%	-23.17%	-33.84%	-30.26%	-34.00%	-17.82%
FRE	61.95	0.28	0.45%	11.22%	7.40%	0.96%	-8.75%	-6.67%	-3.95%	5.55%
SHY	80.44	0.00	0.00%	0.00%	-0.14%	0.65%	0.50%	0.35%	0.71%	0.75%
AGG	98.12	-0.36	-0.37%	-0.60%	-0.62%	0.22%	-1.79%	-1.99%	-1.61%	-0.53%
IEF	82.07	-0.12	-0.15%	-0.69%	-0.49%	1.91%	-0.74%	-1.11%	-0.01%	0.85%
TIP	99.38	-0.22	-0.22%	-0.92%	-1.03%	1.11%	0.15%	-1.29%	0.64%	-1.58%
TLT	86.01	-0.27	-0.31%	-2.18%	-1.46%	1.92%	-3.44%	-2.81%	-1.85%	0.28%

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“Bad debts, foreclosures, the end of the “liar loan” practices, Fed tightening, whatever; this consumer lending game died. “

A week ago I wrote: “The biggest player not structured as a Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSA) is Countrywide Financial (CFC). CFC was down -16.25 pct in the last week alone – to close at $25.00. Do you recall all those rumors that Countrywide was going to be sold to Bank of America, or Private Equity, etc? Worse than a sick joke, that was a fraud, set up to help worried traders “off” their stock. CFC is down -27.1 pct in two weeks, including -6.61 pct this past Friday. It is down -33.1 pct in four weeks and -32.5 pct over the past 52. If the SEC had any integrity whatsoever (well maybe I’m a little too harsh), they would thoroughly investigate those rumors and the Financial Entertainment News talking heads who ran the stories to get to the source. Then pull the trading records, and subpoena people. Shake them up. Let the public know that the nonsense is going to be stopped. The GSA’s Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are also losers. FNM was down -3.95 pct on Friday, -4.65 pct for the week, -11.8 pct for two weeks, and -14.8 pct over four weeks. FRE dropped -1.61 pct on Friday, -3.43 pct for the week, -7.2 pct over two weeks, and -8.5 pct over four.”

I give you that long intro because this week, Fannie (FNM) gained +17.4 pct, Freddie (FRE) +11.2 pct and Countrywide Financial +11.4 pct. That’s what happens when central bankers give into the demands of HB&B.

If the Average Joe cannot pay up at the end of the month, it is HB&B that forecloses.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB index lost -2.01 pct a week ago Friday, plus a further -2.28 pct this week to close at 310.91. Mostly, the loss is energy related.

The 50-day Moving Average is 317.21 and the 200-day MA is 310.24.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

The Crude Oil futures market ($WTIC in the US for Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) dropped -1.54/bbl a week ago (-2.00 pct) to close at 75.48. The loss that Friday (-1.80 pct) was most of the week’s loss. Then this week, $WTIC dropped a further -4.01/bbl (-5.31 pct) to close at 71.47 as traders are fleeing the higher risk commodity markets for the safety of bonds and cash.

That means in six trading sessions, $WTIC has dropped -7.31 pct, which is huge. I wonder if the Fed traders were helping that process or was it that independent traders did it all by themselves?

The 50d MA is 71.41 and the 200d MA is 63.57, so Oil is now siting atop the 50d MA line, which is a measure of technical support. I think the 200d MA will probably hold here. It will have to if the broad market is to rally again. If the technical support breaks down, then I would have tosay the entire character of te equity market is changing from inflation-biased to deflation/recession-biased. If true, then watch out because the inflation beneficiary sectors will plunge, and the broad market will tae a serious hit along with it.

About oil prices, it’s mid-August, and we haven’t yet had hurricanes in the Caribbean. As I say, thank goodness – my balcony is 11 feet from the water. (LOL)

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

A week ago I wrote: “Last week I was bullish on Gold, saying it might even go countercyclical here. This week, $Gold (the near futures) jumped +24.30 an ounce (+3.68 pct) to 684.40. We are getting close to the 695 break-out (draw your lines on these charts), and the 700 price I said that the goldminer stocks need to move up to the next higher trading range.”

This week, $GOLD dropped -2.80/oz (-0.41 pct) to close at 681.60. I am not surprised at the downward pressure on prices because the heavy central bank liquidity injections were robably accompanied by their selling some gold to stave a crisis in the $USD. And, the $USD has remained firm (six days going nowhere in the midst of a finncial crisis and bail-out).

The 50day MA is 665.92 and the 200d MA is 655.66. That’s bullish as the current price is well above the MA’s. Friday’s gain was +8.80/oz.

I published a large report on gold and the miners this Thursday late in the evening (what else is there to do in paradise?). The next day, there were sparks in the gold market.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

$SILVER dropped -0.29 to close at 12.87. The previous week it had jumped +0.44 to close at 13.16. So, I don’t think a loss (-2.19 pct this week) is that bad.

The 50d MA is 13.07 and the 200d MA is 13.25, so $SILVER (near futures) is bearish, and still “needs to move a little higher before a break-out happens.” I’d say it has to move above the 200d MA (13.25).

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

A week earlier, $PLAT lifted +11.50/oz to 1298.30. this week, however, it lost -18.10/oz (-1.39 pct) to close at 1280.20.

The 50d MA is 1305.09 and the 200d MA is 1234.84.

The positive here though is that $SILVER, like $GOLD, gained +1.3 pct on Friday.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

A week earlier, $PALL was up +6.78/oz (+1.86 pct W/W) to 372.05. This week it gave back -9.00 (-2.42 pct W/W) to close at 363.05.

The 50d MA is 371.57 and the 200d MA is 354.82.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

Copper ran weak again this week. $COPPER (near futures) dropped 11.95 (-3.43 pct W/W) to close at 335.95. A week earlier, the loss was -6.80 (-1.92 pct), including a big loss on Friday (-2.63 pct). So, the past six sessions have been very bearish for $COPPER.

The 50d MA is 348.74 and the 200d MA is 317.52, so the current price is right between the 50d and 200d MA.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AUY	11.25	0.33	3.02%	5.63%	1.35%	-8.76%	-8.76%	-17.88%	-18.42%	6.03%
AEM	45.00	0.85	1.93%	4.94%	9.28%	4.36%	15.62%	28.35%	11.66%	22.82%
ABX	34.29	0.52	1.54%	3.25%	7.22%	7.06%	14.95%	14.72%	11.19%	7.49%
KGC	13.10	0.37	2.91%	3.23%	1.08%	-2.96%	14.71%	-0.15%	-1.13%	3.48%
NEM	41.91	0.49	1.18%	2.47%	2.65%	1.21%	-5.18%	3.02%	-8.51%	-20.73%
GG	25.12	0.20	0.80%	1.62%	0.48%	-5.35%	-8.12%	5.24%	-11.86%	-17.04%
MDG	27.25	0.24	0.89%	0.93%	-0.18%	-6.20%	3.65%	8.35%	-8.83%	-2.82%
BVN	38.38	-0.93	-2.37%	-2.66%	-1.08%	-6.75%	39.01%	10.86%	33.08%	32.25%
GFI	15.14	0.10	0.66%	-2.89%	-7.34%	-11.77%	-17.40%	-12.08%	-12.23%	-29.19%

This week the goldminers regained some ground. The $XAU lifted +0.42 pct W/W to 144.33. The 50d MA is 143.59 and the 200d MA is 140.11.

Some of the selling is on account of under-margined stock accounts that were having a terrible week being sold out by HB&B, particularly the small cap loaded accounts of the retail trader.

A week ago I opined: “If the broad market manages to hold ground here, I think the $XAU (stocks) will rally, and should gold move up through 695-700 (which is near by), then the stocks will rally also.” I still believe that.

Yamana and Agnico-Eagle enjoyed very good weeks this week. I’m thinking it’s about time for Gold Fields to do something.

Western Goldfields (TSX:WGI and NDQ:WDGFF) looks good as well. Here is the stock chart for the Cdn listing.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The $USD, which is a trade-weighted index we used to call the Morgan Dollar, rallied by +0.64 pct W/W to close at 80.70. The loss a week ago Friday was -0.60 pct, so the Dollar hasn’t moved at all over six sessions.

I think the sad sack USD will soon fall into the high 70’s (as in just under 80 cents on the index).

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. All fiat money is being diluted constantly, but the last two days of this week took the cake -- $339 billion in new liquidity from G-20 central banks, particularly Germany. The latter weakened the Euro and strengthened the USD, and held gold in check.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

A week earlier, the Euro ($XEU) had a terrific rally week, up +1.39 (+1.02 pct) to 137.89. This week, the Euro dropped -.67 pct to 136.97.

The 50d MA is 136.00 and the 200d MA is 132.90.

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

The Pound sterling came off its peak, down -0.96 pct W/W to close at 202.36.

The 50d MA is 201.43 and the 200d MA is 197.06.

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lifted again this week, up +0.21 pct to 84.54. The 50d MA is 82.34 and the 200d MA is 83.67, so the Yen as well as the sun is still rising in the East.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar gained seven cents against the $USD. It is now at 94.99.

The 50d MA is 94.59 and the 200d MA is 89.12.

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International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

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Table 13: International equities ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	45.19	-0.86	-1.87%	2.59%	1.28%	-3.56%	-0.33%	14.03%	1.44%	11.00%
SPY	144.77	-0.62	-0.43%	0.67%	-0.23%	-6.51%	2.41%	-3.22%	0.58%	13.66%
TRF	64.50	0.17	0.26%	0.19%	-3.15%	-12.73%	-27.16%	-4.36%	-15.66%	-7.19%
QQQQ	47.28	-0.43	-0.90%	-0.30%	-1.48%	-5.25%	9.34%	2.36%	7.75%	28.51%
FXI	129.76	-1.00	-0.76%	-0.31%	-2.91%	-7.97%	11.48%	19.05%	23.15%	62.22%
EWC	29.37	0.08	0.27%	-0.78%	-1.11%	-7.35%	18.91%	3.42%	15.04%	21.46%
EWJ	13.92	-0.20	-1.42%	-0.93%	-2.38%	-5.82%	-1.97%	-3.53%	-2.45%	2.50%
IEV	110.71	-1.44	-1.28%	-1.39%	-0.21%	-8.81%	4.84%	-2.70%	3.78%	19.04%
EWU	23.89	-0.83	-3.36%	-1.93%	-0.75%	-9.51%	1.44%	-3.67%	1.14%	10.24%
EWZ	59.40	-1.50	-2.46%	-2.46%	-3.99%	-12.92%	27.19%	8.97%	25.48%	48.43%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

The EWJ lost -0.93 pct W/W to close at 13.92.

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

The EWU lost big (-1.93 pct W/W) to close at 23.89. There was a huge sell-off on Friday (-3.36 pct), which doesn’t portend well for the UK market for Monday am.

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

The EWC lost -0.78 pct W/W to close at 29.37.

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US Equity Markets Review

The Nasdaq Composite (+1.34 pct W/W), S&P 500 (+1.44 pct), DJIA (+0.44 pct) and Russell 2000 (+4.42 pct) all showed the strength of this market. The public, and many retail accounts, were focused on Thursday’s huge loss.

It’s just that the rest of the week was better.

DJIA (interactive) chart

A dozen NYSE DJIA stocks to watch.

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

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A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AXP	60.78	0.13	0.21%	5.72%	3.81%	-3.26%	0.70%	-3.14%	5.65%	16.93%
GM	33.85	-1.00	-2.87%	5.65%	8.84%	-8.59%	14.94%	16.76%	-6.00%	10.58%
AIG	64.67	0.37	0.58%	4.92%	-1.06%	-7.02%	-10.37%	-10.43%	-6.19%	7.21%
DD	48.59	-0.47	-0.96%	4.83%	3.78%	-5.74%	-0.92%	-3.99%	-4.86%	22.64%
PG	65.39	0.42	0.65%	3.99%	4.09%	4.36%	1.32%	6.34%	1.49%	8.51%
KO	54.98	-0.87	-1.56%	3.19%	5.16%	3.52%	13.17%	4.76%	15.12%	25.24%
XOM	84.51	0.91	1.09%	2.96%	-1.26%	-6.44%	14.03%	6.45%	12.35%	21.82%
C	47.00	0.10	0.21%	2.80%	0.06%	-10.51%	-14.93%	-11.65%	-11.99%	-2.02%
PFE	23.99	-0.15	-0.62%	2.04%	0.84%	-7.41%	-8.75%	-10.49%	-9.06%	-7.62%
MCD	49.41	-0.52	-1.04%	1.83%	1.33%	-4.82%	12.63%	-1.18%	10.88%	41.70%
JPM	44.25	0.08	0.18%	1.37%	0.05%	-11.59%	-7.95%	-14.90%	-12.24%	0.45%
WMT	46.07	-0.38	-0.82%	1.21%	0.28%	-6.27%	-3.11%	-3.52%	-3.96%	2.63%
MO	67.39	-0.28	-0.41%	1.19%	3.41%	-6.01%	3.80%	-0.96%	5.17%	11.46%
MRK	50.88	-0.56	-1.09%	1.17%	1.52%	0.06%	15.58%	-0.39%	16.11%	23.11%
JNJ	61.15	0.32	0.53%	0.99%	2.31%	-3.59%	-7.91%	-2.16%	-6.78%	-3.78%
IBM	112.64	1.91	1.72%	0.67%	-2.58%	3.72%	15.80%	7.60%	14.30%	48.72%
GE	38.23	-0.71	-1.82%	0.45%	-1.44%	-3.22%	0.68%	3.94%	7.60%	17.02%
INTC	23.98	0.06	0.25%	0.29%	1.87%	-7.66%	17.84%	7.97%	14.08%	35.10%
HPQ	47.21	0.19	0.40%	-0.42%	1.61%	-0.08%	13.43%	5.69%	11.79%	43.02%
HD	35.92	0.13	0.36%	-0.75%	-2.26%	-12.11%	-12.54%	-7.40%	-12.39%	6.87%
MSFT	28.71	-0.21	-0.73%	-0.86%	-2.31%	-3.72%	-3.85%	-6.12%	-0.79%	17.38%
UTX	73.08	0.71	0.98%	-1.15%	-0.29%	-2.56%	16.35%	7.44%	8.14%	20.89%
T	38.87	-0.38	-0.97%	-1.47%	-0.94%	-3.79%	11.22%	-0.10%	5.34%	28.62%
CAT	77.55	-0.93	-1.19%	-1.79%	2.01%	-8.90%	26.80%	5.07%	19.68%	13.51%
MMM	85.97	-0.89	-1.02%	-1.82%	-4.53%	-4.71%	9.85%	1.56%	15.33%	25.67%
DIS	33.16	0.16	0.48%	-2.18%	-1.72%	-3.52%	-3.04%	-7.09%	-3.49%	12.10%
VZ	41.33	-0.59	-1.41%	-3.32%	-1.60%	-1.03%	9.28%	1.35%	9.63%	21.77%
HON	56.01	-0.77	-1.36%	-3.73%	-4.44%	-6.87%	24.19%	-1.49%	21.13%	50.40%
AA	34.69	-0.75	-2.12%	-4.12%	-7.27%	-26.74%	18.27%	-7.81%	6.67%	19.91%
BA	98.44	0.14	0.14%	-5.56%	-5.08%	-3.38%	10.40%	6.08%	9.38%	29.19%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The one report from Value Line this week is on (Cara 100) Wal-Mart (WMT).

(WMT: Value Line Report Aug 10: next one is due Nov 9)

Wal-Mart is an easy target (no pun intended) for public activists and politicians. It’s an entirely different situation for traders, many of whom hold WMT as a core part of their long-term holdings.

The Return on Equity/Capital is superb, the financial strength is top-rated by Standard & Poor’s, the company is the global leader in its industry (retailing) and the industry is solid, if somewhat cyclical.

For the next five years, S&P projects a total return of between +11 pct and +16 pct. The stock has been in a long-term Bear since the last week of Dec 1999.

Because consumer discretionary spending has been restricted due to high energy and fuel cost and other inflationary pressures, it’s hard for me to believe that WMT might operate counter-cyclically. During the market beating that started late in Wednesday’s session with a CNBC interview of Treasury Secretary Paulson and news reports of the trading restrictions placed by BNP Paribas Bank on three of its high-risk funds, WMT pulled back relatively hard, losing -4.2 pct over two days. I don’t quite understand what the scare in the banking sector had to do with WMT shares selling off.

In any event, I continue to like Wal-Mart, the company and the shares.

Let’s go back to the all-time high 12/31/99 at $69.12, and compare it to today’s price of $46.07. In almost eight years, WMT has dropped -33.3 pct. Just to get back to that former high would represent a gain of +48.7 pct.

Do you think it’s possible in the next two or three years?

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In 1999, WMT had a book value/share of $5.80, cash flow/share of $1.81, EPS of $1.28, dividend of $0.19 and sales/share of $37.02.

In 2007, the Value Line estimates are, respectively, book value/share $16.10, cash flow/share $4.75, EPS $3.17, dividend $0.83, and sales/share $92.50.

The average annual dividend yield in 1999 was +0.4 pct, whereas in 2007, it is likely to be +1.8 pct. Management recently pumped up the dividend, but the annual growth rate over the past 10 years has been a consistent and strong +19.5 pct, and is expected to be about +12.5 pct per year on average over the next five years at least.

In addition, management recently declared a share buy-back of $15 billion, which will likely be completed within about two years.

Operationally, margins have remained firm and have even grown a bit. Analysts expect rapid expansion of company sales in international markets over the next ten years, and the company has a very sound financial rating by Value Line.

Value Line also expects shareholders to receive an Annual Total Return of between +11 pct as a minimum to +16 pct tops. If traders buy the stock on extreme dips, that return will be higher than +16 pct in my opinion. And, if you also write puts when you buy the stock, you can add the option premiums (or more stock at even lower prices) to lower your cost base.

In my mind, all this company needs is a resolution of the Yuan:USD issue, and a stop to the nonsense in Washington that talks of placing additional customs duties on imports from China. All that will do is help the Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and Hong Kong manufacturers/exporters, and then they will raise their prices accordingly.

Other than these US govt issues, which are all incredible operating obstacles for a company as big as Wal-Mart's purchases are in China, I cannot think of another large, successful company in the Cara 100 that, facing so many negatives, has so consistently grown its business and its dividends over the past eight years, like Wal-Mart. But, the stock price has falen and can't get up. It ought to be higher. I’ll leave it at that.

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 15: next one is due Sep. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 8: next one is due Sep. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug 10: next one is due Nov 9)

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Wrap up:

I made some personal progress on Friday, and this coming week ought to be better. Hooray!

As usual, paradise been a slice. This week in particular.

And, into my sixth week in paradise, my tan is coming along nicely. Never had a burn yet. But I have to say a lot of the boats have pulled out. Small yachts and hurricanes don’t mix well.

Nassau Bahamas experiences just one hurricane every ten years, usually a small Category One storm, which means the tourists and locals are back into the water a couple hours later. But, like the equity market, you never know if the next one is the big one, so nobody here takes these storms lightly.

It was a see-saw week in the market too, and the extreme volatility is probably going to last because traders are nervous. So, I’m glad to see the Discourse growing in depth and intensity. I don’t think there is anything like it elsewhere.

We may all be on the same page as it were, but that sure doesn’t mean we all share the same perspective on markets. Thank goodness.

Have a nice Sunday. Wherever you are, I know we are connected.

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p.s., pardon the typos. They must have been many.