Clearly, the Bulls and the Bears are at odds. Friday's market in New York, and the continued break down of the share prices of Humungous Bank & Broker has me leaning, but not totally convinced, to the notion that a severe broad market pullback of epic Bear market proportions in process.

The breakdown of the London FTSE 100 index a couple weeks ago, the sell-off in New York this month -- despite a rising bond market (lower yields), which should have been a help – and the fact that US consumer spending hit the wall in mid-July, are three other weighty factors that favor the Bears.

However, we are still not there in my mind. Part of my thinking is that the magnitude of loss in most Bear markets is in the range of -25 pct (to 10500) to -33 pct (to 9350) from cycle peak to cycle bottom. A major Bear could even take a Bull down by -37.5 pct (to say 8750). But for a fall of such magnitude to happen, corporate earnings and dividends and M&A deals are too strong right now, corporate treasuries too full of cash, and interest rates (US, Europe and Japan) too low (on a historical basis).

Besides, Bear markets in the US are almost always preceded by sell-offs in the higher risk international markets, but in recent weeks these markets have been setting record highs, and while some of those markets are being called a little frothy, I don’t see evidence of spike tops or exhausted tops. In fact, on days when the US market looks good, these markets tend to look great.

Therefore, I need to see how tomorrow (Monday) opens in the Asia-Pacific markets (Tokyo especially) and in Europe (London especially) before I change my opinion on market trend, and get closer to making a Bear market call. I may even need a couple days this week because I believe there is fight in the old Bull yet.

It may seem ironic that on May 10 2006, I had no trouble calling for a severe drop in equity prices (which then came off), but now I feel different.

This time, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) moved to a record high just over 14000, the pullback (which had to be widely expected) is so far only about -820 points (-5.9 pct) to 13182. There is a possibility, in my mind and I am not alone in this thinking, that the new trading range will be from that high (14000) down -8 pct to the area of technical support at 12750-12800 (May-June 2007 trading).

So yes, I do believe that the DJIA could possibly trade in this 12800 to 14000 range for several months as opposed say to dropping like a stone to 10500, 9350, 8750 or numbers like that.

The fact is nobody knows.

This weekend, some technical analysts have called for the start of a "secondary correction," which I do not fully comprehend. Maybe it’s the semantics.

In my language, I think they are referring to a pull-back (within a continuing primary Bull market trend) from the prior intermediate-term cycle high, which in this case was a long-term cycle high. Within a typical long term Bull and Bear market cycle of say four to five years, called the primary wave, there would be three to five intermediate-term secondary waves, with the previous cycle high occurring within say the past 13 weeks ago to possibly as long as a year. The point being, this is still a Bull market.

Otherwise, without an explanation, if this is a secondary correction, where was the initial correction, followed by the usual dead cat bounce?

Moreover, if most “secondary corrections” are about eight percent on average, why opine that this one (down almost -6 pct) is just starting? How helpful is that?

In addition, if the term “correction” is correct language, then the meaning is that we are observing a bearish phase occurring in the primary bullish trend, which is continuing. Is that the inference these technical analysts are giving? I wonder if they are going to do the usual history re-write thing by later telling us that they had called the Bear market at the top, when in fact they had used the term “secondary correction.”

As, I said a week ago, “despite prognostications of everybody from grandparents to teenagers, including from market professionals, nobody knows yet if the Dow 12800 is going to be penetrated, and, if so, if or when the present selling wave will take the DJIA down to the much stronger technical support at about the 12050 level of March 2007.” There is nothing magic about Dow 12800 of course; however, that was the top of the previous trading range, and traders are looking for evidence that current prices may drop back to a lower range.

Last week I added: “That’s the thing about Bear markets; nobody knows when they happen until after they happen – as defined by a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Are we there yet? Not by the charts, we are not. (We are now down about -5.9 pct from the cycle peak.) Moreover, are those traders who say they know prepared to back up their Bear market call by betting the farm? I doubt it.

It could be that this latest pullback is a normal market correction where traders are rotating sector weightings, ie, taking profits from long-running advancers and putting back the proceeds into stocks that are more value priced, and into bonds that will protect portfolios from a future decline in stock prices.”

Finally, I concluded a week ago “there are always two sides to a market. The market is a barometer of human emotion. Unfortunately, too many of us play “Doctor” rather than focus on what is important, which is our own portfolio.”

Unlike medical terminology, market terminology is rather imprecise, and different people will use the same words to mean different things. The argument I am offering here is that the market is as complicated as we choose to make it, and in listening to every guru who has an opinion, and a different methodology of every type imaginable, we are making it tough on ourselves.

I have a very simple mechanical system. I contain my subjects of prime interest (my portfolio watchlist) to a limited number of high quality companies. Then, with the knowledge companies go through periods of thick and thin like we all do, I simply accumulate positions when the Monthly-Weekly-Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) technical indicator is below 30 and distribute when it is over 70 for each stock.

There are, if you follow this blog closely, some nuances to this methodology, but that is the meat of it. It follows then that when the bulk of the portfolio has been distributed (ie, sold off) and not replaced, I am in cash.

I use the Distribution Zone/Sell Alert system that I discuss in this blog, and will explain in detail in a future book. When broad markets fall, I expect to be mostly in cash, and when they rise, I anticipate my mechanical system would have me mostly positioned in stocks. Today, the position is about 90 pct cash, and I feel comfortable not being as close to the market as I normally am.

Cash could mean any number of ways that unallocated assets are defined. It could be cash or short-term Treasury Bills. It could be gold, which is also money. It could be short put option positions in stocks that I am potentially interested in accumulating/buying, but where my interest lies mostly in deploying assets to earn options premium income.

So, let’s look at the markets, and also the Cara 100, this past week. As you know by now, prices are down. Technical analysts will say that a lot of damage has been done. This damage is either repaired quickly as it was Wednesday and Thursday at the close, after a smashing on Tuesday, and must on Monday and Tuesday after another smashing on Friday, or the DJIA is likely to fall soon to the 12800 level.

After that point, and only then, can we change our opinion that this pullback might be the big one or that prices are going to be range-bound between 12800 and 14000 for a while.

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The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Friday session Cara 100 gainers.

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Here are Cara 100 losers.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Friday session.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes, ie, Money Flow, especially when markets start trending.

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Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

The folks at KNOBIAS, Inc provided the Cara 100 watchlists.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

Here are the charts of up to a dozen stocks with RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from Friday: Please note that a week ago Friday there were zero above 70 on the Daily RSI-7 data, but 62 of 100 below 30. That was the most extreme daily reading (positive or negative) since I started to blog in April 2004.

RSI > 70 (2)

RSI < 30 (12 of 43)

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(When available), here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for Friday:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system” gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

Bill – another amazing week, with no respite at week’s end. Today, only 8 of the sub-industries were up, while 199 were down! (All 31 major industries were down.) When do PM stocks start to rise? Gold stocks stayed red, while Silver stocks rose to neutral this week. If change of PM’s becomes significant, I’ll report it.

Weekly Impulse Report

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices now stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (at what rate are 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages now converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

This week saw 0 GREEN industries, and 23 RED (compared to 19 last week). During the Feb-March pullback, the tally never exceeded 6 industries RED. Market internals have not been as negative as this all year. If a stricter “inertia” criterion were used (the 13 wk. MA) instead of the 26wk.) only 3 industries would escape the RED: aerospace/defense, conglomerates, and computer hardware.

Of the Cara 100 components, 9 are green (last week: 9) , 66 red (last week: 54).

Cara 100 “Greens”

Cara 100 “Reds”

Components of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):

DJIA – 5/17 (last week: 3/15)

Dow65 (indu&transport&utility) – 6/43 (last week: 4/39 )

SP500 – 39/378 (last week: 47/347)

NDX – 19/56 (last week: 24/48)

RUT – 158/1529 (last week: 120/1495).

The following major indices themselves are RED on their weekly charts: DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Comp, Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500. The US dollar index is also RED.

/Jock

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

On Friday, the DJIA droped to 13182. The Bulls are worried. Most people, in fact, are because they are long stocks, and most stocks had a terrible day on Friday.

But, look back to Tuesday. The DJIA plummeted worse on Tuesday afternoon and then recovered, with triple-digit gains on Wednesday and Thursday.

So, with Friday’s knock-down, why are traders so nervous this time? Is it only because it is the most recent time? And, before a weekend?

If that is the case, then possibly traders are too caught up in the moment, as usual.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

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Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

This week there were four ETF’s up and six down.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	37.95	-1.30	-3.31%	1.07%	-6.76%	-4.79%	3.07%	-10.01%	2.29%	11.45%
XLP	26.65	-0.20	-0.74%	0.79%	-2.74%	-2.31%	1.41%	-2.74%	-0.56%	7.76%
XLI	39.15	-0.88	-2.20%	0.26%	-4.28%	-1.63%	11.13%	3.19%	8.18%	21.77%
IYH	67.15	-0.86	-1.26%	0.16%	-3.76%	-4.67%	1.04%	-6.66%	-2.53%	6.62%
XLB	38.42	-1.07	-2.71%	-1.26%	-10.23%	-7.64%	11.01%	-1.61%	4.89%	22.63%
IYZ	32.81	-0.97	-2.87%	-1.32%	-5.50%	-5.39%	10.62%	0.61%	6.39%	24.94%
SMH	37.09	-0.82	-2.16%	-1.70%	-7.00%	-5.46%	10.49%	0.05%	8.07%	18.27%
XLY	36.37	-1.00	-2.68%	-1.81%	-7.83%	-9.46%	-5.58%	-7.71%	-8.41%	12.11%
XLE	66.12	-2.42	-3.53%	-3.47%	-10.65%	-7.58%	16.86%	2.19%	12.78%	13.36%
XLF	32.06	-1.57	-4.67%	-3.87%	-9.56%	-12.60%	-13.16%	-14.71%	-14.26%	-3.38%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ECA	61.46	-1.36	-2.16%	1.64%	-3.52%	-1.70%	35.55%	11.87%	27.54%	14.47%
CEO	113.53	-3.16	-2.71%	0.59%	-7.55%	-5.30%	20.43%	27.73%	33.66%	31.63%
SU	89.67	-1.83	-2.00%	0.57%	-6.16%	-1.82%	21.32%	9.34%	21.21%	8.22%
STO	28.75	-0.69	-2.34%	0.38%	-10.41%	-11.48%	11.91%	-1.64%	6.96%	-3.07%
PBR	61.77	-3.43	-5.26%	-2.79%	-11.59%	-6.07%	23.96%	20.34%	24.21%	30.81%
IMO	44.49	-1.39	-3.03%	-3.70%	-9.61%	-6.67%	24.76%	14.96%	26.11%	17.61%
TOT	73.86	-2.92	-3.80%	-4.02%	-10.11%	-12.38%	4.07%	-2.11%	7.28%	11.45%
XOM	82.08	-3.10	-3.64%	-4.10%	-10.72%	-5.07%	10.75%	1.74%	8.66%	20.05%
CVX	81.02	-2.87	-3.42%	-4.91%	-12.05%	-7.60%	14.16%	1.84%	9.43%	23.69%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

XLE dropped -3.47 pct W/W to 66.12, but the big loss was Friday (-3.53 pct), and that took the 4-week loss to -7.58 pct.

As I see it, Big Oil in the US (XOM -4.1 pct) and CVX (-4.9 pct) were the culprits this week, and half the loss of the past four weeks was taken on Friday. That could mean that the market was being set up for a rally attempt on Monday. You see, I saw the same thing happening with the other big Dow mega-caps, General Electric (GE) and Citigroup (C), which had losses on Friday that put these stocks underwater for the week.

Selling the stock and buying the call options is a bullish move, if that’s what happened. The selling with a hedged call, if done by HB&B prop desks working together, sets up a short squeeze possibility. These are market situations you must be aware of.

That’s not to say it will happen, just that I like to wait a day or so to see.

Also in the energy sector, Canada’s EnCana (ECA +1.6 pct) and Suncor (SU +0.6 pct) were up this week, while Imperial Oil (IMO) dropped along with its 70 pct-owned parent Exxon.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MT	63.09	-1.69	-2.61%	4.02%	-3.90%	-2.67%	54.63%	15.74%	32.65%	85.01%
GGB	24.76	-1.00	-3.88%	-0.04%	-10.74%	-8.67%	50.79%	19.33%	45.05%	54.65%
RIO	46.76	-2.34	-4.77%	-0.81%	-8.26%	-2.64%	62.25%	9.33%	37.45%	97.05%
NUE	51.38	0.61	1.20%	-0.83%	-15.16%	-15.77%	-5.72%	-21.56%	-20.75%	-2.80%
BHP	60.73	-2.20	-3.50%	-0.99%	-9.40%	-6.97%	56.24%	21.39%	47.47%	43.43%
PKX	136.04	-3.15	-2.26%	-1.48%	-7.47%	2.30%	71.27%	26.67%	48.68%	121.74%
RTP	266.46	-9.64	-3.49%	-1.81%	-14.24%	-17.30%	30.55%	5.05%	25.25%	25.99%
TS	46.64	-0.74	-1.56%	-2.24%	-5.22%	-8.55%	-3.87%	-1.25%	-0.91%	15.47%
TCK	42.21	-1.87	-4.24%	-3.12%	-15.24%	-5.87%	-39.05%	-47.40%	-40.86%	-40.59%
AA	36.18	-1.70	-4.49%	-3.29%	-16.02%	-13.15%	23.35%	3.19%	11.53%	22.23%

XLB (Basic Materials) dropped -1.26 pct W/W to 38.42, but just Friday’s drop was -2.71 pct. The 4-week decline is -7.64 pct.

MittalArcelor (MT) rallied +4.0 pct, while Alcoa (AA -3.3 pct) and Teck-Cominco (-3.1 pct) were down.

As you see from these tables, there is a mix of Cara 100 companies and some, like Alcoa I would never touch. But I need a cross-section and the table size is limited to ten, so not all the Cara 100 companies can be included in these tables.

Also, “chas” has written to say that the TCK long-term duration pricing does not reflect the split, and therefore shows an inaccurate loss. As many here know, I cannot change the data, even though I work with the vendor of the charts. They do not seem to care much about non-US-headquartered companies, and do not correct data for splits. All I can do is drop the stock from the table, which I would do if I had the time, or else be content to accept the errors. The latter is anathema to me (I am a perfectionist), but, as a “one-man show” I simply cannot do more than I do, and from your letters, I know that is more than enough.

Today, for instance, I am writing this WIR from my marina balcony on a picture-perfect day. I really could be elsewhere, but I happen to be committed.

As to how much committed I am to paradise, I’m not so sure. There is like a 5 pct work ethic here. Things will get done, in time, but I don’t know if I have enough left before I pass on.

Even in retirement, I get more done in a day than some of these bankers do in a month. But, let’s not dwell on material things that are basic; let’s get on with industry (something people here have difficulty fathoming) and the industrials.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CAT	78.96	-1.71	-2.12%	3.87%	-5.10%	0.19%	29.10%	7.63%	21.01%	8.57%
ABB	23.32	-0.65	-2.71%	2.64%	-3.20%	-1.98%	30.86%	16.37%	28.06%	82.76%
UTX	73.93	-0.83	-1.11%	0.87%	-2.76%	1.83%	17.70%	8.83%	8.72%	17.84%
BA	104.24	-1.69	-1.60%	0.51%	0.37%	5.42%	16.90%	11.07%	15.76%	31.28%
HON	58.18	-0.87	-1.47%	-0.73%	-4.56%	-1.52%	29.00%	3.89%	26.04%	51.04%
ERJ	44.31	0.54	1.23%	-0.74%	-7.88%	-9.59%	8.66%	-8.36%	7.76%	28.62%
FDX	108.56	-2.33	-2.10%	-0.98%	-6.15%	-2.06%	-1.10%	-0.71%	-5.58%	3.05%
GE	38.06	-0.97	-2.49%	-1.88%	-5.13%	-1.09%	0.24%	1.93%	4.94%	16.28%
MMM	87.56	-1.56	-1.75%	-2.77%	-2.94%	-0.62%	11.88%	4.15%	18.53%	26.39%

XLI dropped -0.26 pct W/W to 39.15, but was down -2.20 pct on Friday. This is the result of a couple mega-cap stocks in the US industrial-military complex, like GE getting smashed. Caterpillar (CAT) was up +3.4 pct on the week, and 3M (MMM) was down -2.8 pct.

Gold miners Agnico-Eagle (AEM +4.1 pct) and Barrick (ABX +3.9 pct) were up this week, but Goldfields (GFI -4.6 pct) and Yamana (-4.1 pct) dropped back.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	33.32	0.28	0.85%	2.30%	-0.63%	-0.21%	10.44%	-3.76%	2.68%	38.43%
NKE	56.50	-0.45	-0.79%	1.91%	-3.45%	-5.31%	15.71%	6.04%	12.77%	44.58%
DIS	33.90	-0.46	-1.34%	0.47%	-1.28%	-1.71%	-0.88%	-5.02%	-3.64%	12.85%
TM	118.90	0.31	0.26%	-1.31%	-3.26%	-5.81%	-12.12%	-1.25%	-9.42%	11.15%
CCL	43.61	-1.29	-2.87%	-1.60%	-6.94%	-9.43%	-14.41%	-9.43%	-15.76%	13.83%
SBUX	26.31	-0.61	-2.27%	-2.30%	-5.02%	-0.90%	-25.36%	-16.79%	-23.23%	-14.13%
BC	27.26	-0.89	-3.16%	-2.57%	-10.09%	-16.84%	-14.60%	-17.24%	-21.21%	-9.68%
JCP	65.73	-3.08	-4.48%	-4.32%	-12.30%	-9.40%	-15.80%	-17.00%	-21.47%	2.38%
WHR	97.77	-3.07	-3.04%	-4.74%	-11.46%	-14.18%	15.49%	-13.34%	5.87%	23.17%

Recently, I showed you what I do to look at the Retailers, which represents the cash register to consumers. You can have all the econ stats in the world that can be distorted and deliberately misinterpreted, but the cash register knows, and when the cash registers are not ringing up sales, the trading community finds out, and they sell these stocks across the board. July, particularly the last two weeks, was a bad one as these stocks sold down sharply, as you can see by the daily data charts.

XLY (consumer discretionary spending stocks) dropped -1.81 pct W/W to 36.37, but the Friday drop alone was –2.68 pct. The 4-week decline has been -9.46 pct.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WFMI	40.34	-0.11	-0.27%	12.06%	2.59%	5.99%	-11.30%	-10.97%	-9.69%	-20.86%
MO	66.60	-0.54	-0.80%	2.19%	-4.58%	-6.98%	2.59%	-4.54%	2.52%	10.69%
KO	53.28	-0.38	-0.71%	1.91%	0.13%	1.29%	9.67%	0.70%	10.45%	21.04%
PEP	66.47	-0.34	-0.51%	1.23%	2.78%	0.38%	5.98%	-1.25%	2.20%	5.78%
DEO	81.46	-0.37	-0.45%	0.89%	-4.37%	-2.00%	2.43%	-4.31%	2.91%	15.68%
BUD	48.95	-0.75	-1.51%	0.62%	-1.37%	-5.19%	-0.55%	-2.68%	-4.71%	2.56%
PG	62.88	-0.42	-0.66%	0.10%	1.17%	2.28%	-2.57%	1.42%	-3.76%	5.77%
WMT	45.52	-1.21	-2.59%	-0.91%	-5.29%	-5.93%	-4.27%	-5.87%	-5.32%	1.77%
WAG	44.09	-0.72	-1.61%	-1.03%	-3.08%	-0.72%	-4.30%	-1.03%	-2.71%	-8.83%
ABV	65.14	-2.74	-4.04%	-7.52%	-13.25%	-11.01%	32.67%	4.68%	24.69%	58.49%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) gained +0.79 pct W/W to close at 26.15, but on Friday there was a loss of -0.74 pct.

Whole Food Markets enjoyed a terrific run, up +12.1 pct W/W, and Altria (MO) lifted +2.2 pct, but AmBev (ABV) dropped -7.5 pct.

With stocks like ABV, after a spectacular run-up for questionable or at least say arguable reasons, as there was, the bearish phase, when it comes, is usually larger too.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GSK	51.01	-0.85	-1.64%	2.78%	-3.10%	-1.53%	-5.20%	-11.19%	-8.60%	-5.34%
AET	49.31	-1.40	-2.76%	1.36%	-0.72%	-3.47%	15.00%	2.47%	15.97%	51.63%
JNJ	60.55	-0.48	-0.79%	1.31%	-2.01%	-2.54%	-8.81%	-5.86%	-9.06%	-4.01%
NVS	53.49	-0.24	-0.45%	0.58%	-2.73%	-3.33%	-8.00%	-7.82%	-8.66%	-3.74%
BMET	45.45	-0.05	-0.11%	-0.15%	-0.04%	-0.72%	9.60%	4.77%	7.60%	33.40%
PFE	23.51	-0.34	-1.43%	-1.18%	-5.58%	-9.30%	-10.57%	-12.50%	-12.28%	-7.84%
BMY	28.00	-0.62	-2.17%	-2.23%	-11.22%	-11.25%	6.14%	-4.57%	-2.23%	17.70%
DNA	73.42	-0.87	-1.17%	-2.72%	-2.30%	-2.24%	-10.24%	-9.97%	-16.00%	-8.62%
UNH	47.50	-0.86	-1.78%	-3.32%	-7.44%	-10.41%	-9.64%	-10.70%	-10.22%	-0.57%
AMGN	50.90	-0.54	-1.05%	-8.49%	-9.40%	-7.15%	-25.58%	-20.36%	-26.71%	-28.23%

IYH (healthcare) was up +0.16 pct W/W to 67.15. On Friday, the loss was -1.26 pct, which was the second best among this list of ten ETF’s.

The winner on the week was GlaxoSmithKline (GSK +2.8 pct), but Amgen (AMGN -8.5 pct) and United Healthcare (UNH -3.3 pct) were the big losers.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HBC	91.42	-1.83	-1.96%	2.78%	-0.81%	-1.60%	-1.67%	-3.12%	-1.18%	0.69%
CS	65.66	-1.07	-1.60%	2.43%	-6.16%	-9.93%	-6.35%	-15.36%	-7.83%	0.00%
DB	134.25	-3.96	-2.87%	1.21%	-6.15%	-9.31%	-0.81%	-13.14%	-4.02%	19.87%
UBS	54.08	-1.04	-1.89%	-0.59%	-6.97%	-11.50%	-11.91%	-14.74%	-14.93%	-0.44%
JPM	43.65	-0.94	-2.11%	-1.31%	-8.22%	-10.86%	-9.19%	-17.17%	-14.29%	-4.40%
C	45.72	-1.52	-3.22%	-2.66%	-9.88%	-11.57%	-17.25%	-15.25%	-16.36%	-5.67%
MS	60.62	-3.26	-5.10%	-5.83%	-10.29%	-17.06%	-25.73%	-28.92%	-27.87%	-10.59%
GS	179.68	-7.78	-4.15%	-6.73%	-12.75%	-19.66%	-10.48%	-18.90%	-15.81%	18.13%
MER	70.05	-2.50	-3.45%	-6.92%	-12.48%	-17.28%	-25.17%	-24.09%	-26.27%	-2.98%
LEH	55.78	-4.67	-7.73%	-13.14%	-18.32%	-25.43%	-29.06%	-26.27%	-34.99%	-15.70%

XLF (Financials) took the biggest beating this week (-3.87 pct), and on Friday (-4.67 pct!), as well as over 4-weeks (-12.6 pct) and 52-weeks (the only loser of the ten ETF’s I follow here). The 52-week performance is down -3.38 pct, whereas the next worst is a winner (IYH +6.62 pct).

This week, the big European banks were relatively strong (HBC, CS, DB, and to a lesser extent UBS). The US financial giants got crushed. Lehman Bros (LEH) dropped -13.1 pct W/W, Merrill Lynch (MER -6.9 pct), Goldman Sachs (GS -6.7 pct), and Morgan Stanley (MS -5.8 pct) all looked ugly.

The over-sold US housing market and the sub-prime debt issue, as the “liar loan” fiasco is being politely labeled, and the fall-out in the credit market, is dragging down the US financial institutions that were behind it all through the piece, and that is eating away at equity market.

But, as you know, I am not yet convinced this is enough, in itself, to kill the global equity market, although it would not surprise me that HB&B and the Treasury/Fed figure that if their ship is going to sink, they might as well torpedo the rest of the fleet.

So, I am standing by to see if these interventionists are going to try to pull off another miracle next week. I hardly think this is the Buy-side making the call. After all, we’re flush, and earnings, econ growth rates, etc, etc, are not that bad right now.

As for Cramer screaming for help for his friends (see YouTube), it is laughable. Not just this time, but everytime that the market appears to be headed south, he and his friends, including spinmeister supreme, Larry Kudlow, are pitching manure on the current Fed head, as if the health of the market is his doing.

This may be entertaining to you, but it has nothing to do with trading, so I recommend you tune out that kind of noise.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSCO	29.46	-0.67	-2.22%	1.69%	-0.44%	3.48%	6.20%	6.35%	8.59%	67.67%
CTSH	82.85	-1.15	-1.37%	1.61%	-3.48%	5.02%	6.55%	-1.52%	-3.47%	17.84%
INTC	23.91	-0.39	-1.60%	1.57%	-2.61%	-3.12%	17.49%	9.98%	12.62%	37.73%
SAP	53.69	-1.36	-2.47%	1.55%	-2.77%	6.23%	0.92%	12.70%	16.39%	19.13%
ORCL	19.66	-0.43	-2.14%	0.20%	-4.61%	-3.63%	12.28%	3.36%	12.86%	33.11%
QCOM	40.77	-1.27	-3.02%	-2.16%	-5.19%	-6.45%	8.84%	-7.93%	9.63%	16.95%
SNDK	53.43	0.66	1.25%	-2.55%	-6.20%	8.60%	28.07%	22.04%	30.96%	13.10%
ADBE	38.75	-0.77	-1.95%	-4.06%	-6.94%	-5.53%	-2.93%	-5.95%	-0.56%	19.12%
INFY	47.96	-1.52	-3.07%	-5.05%	-10.71%	-8.80%	-14.08%	-10.76%	-18.63%	13.46%
ADSK	40.47	-1.23	-2.95%	-6.51%	-9.14%	-10.46%	-0.22%	-2.55%	-8.62%	19.95%

SMH (semi-conductors, which I use as a proxy for US technology since it is a leading indicator and that’s basically what I’m looking for, ie, tomorrow’s news today) was down -1.70 pct W/W to close at 37.09. But Friday lost -2.16 pct.

Do you recall a year ago I wrote something like “If there is one thing I’m going to do here is to convince you that Intel is NOT A DOG like Wall St is telling you. INTC was up +1.6 pct this week, and over 52-weeks is the 4th BEST performing Dow 30 stock. This is called “Proof of Concept”.

Cisco (CSC) +1.7 pct) was also a winner this week, but there were many tech stocks that got hit. Autodesk (ADSK) as in who cares, since as you know I dropped them from the Cara 100 at very high prices recently when I couldn’t stomach the personal incomes these senior exec’s were taking down (I’d like to say stealing).

ADSK dropped -6.5 pct W/W, InfoSystems Technologies (INFY) -5.1 pct and Adobe (ADBE) -4.1 pct.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Verizon (VZ +1.8 pct) and AT&T (T +0.5 pct) were up, but IYZ (telecommunications) dropped -1.32 pct W/W, including a huge -2.87 pct on Friday, to close at 32.81.

What’s happening here is that traders are switching to safe-haven plays, like bonds, utilities, consumer staples and healthcare, and picking the top quality names. So, within telecom, the sector ETF was down, but the VZ and T names were up on the week.

Should a full-blown Bear settle in, ultimately all the names are hit with selling. In that case, you have to look to counter-cyclical plays. Usually there are a few such plays because (i) new capital has to go somewhere, and (ii) some industry drivers actually push stocks higher even though most are falling.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU (utilities) gained +1.07 pct W/W to close at 37.95. There was a huge loss on Friday (-3.31 pct), which along with XLF (-4.67 pct) and XLE (-3.53 pct) were the day’s biggest losers.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Safe-haven flight is the name of the game at this point. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury Bond has dropped from 5.23 on June 24 to 4.92 pct this week. So, bond prices continue to lift.

This week, the TLT lifted +0.74 pct to close at 87.93. Friday alone, the gain was +0.66 pct.

But the Fed is tightening too. 30-day T-Bill rates are up to 4.74 pct from 4.56 pct on June 24. This is a little surprising because as traders go to cash, in a rush to safety from stocks, they buy T-Bills, which on its own pushes rates down.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Table 10: Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.74	4.78	4.83	4.73
6 Month	4.76	4.77	4.84	4.76
2 Year	4.60	4.51	4.72	4.85
3 Year	4.58	4.51	4.72	4.85
5 Year	4.64	4.56	4.77	4.89
10 Year	4.79	4.74	4.90	4.99
30 Year	4.92	4.90	5.02	5.09

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.64	3.64	3.69	3.76
2yr AAA	3.65	3.64	3.70	3.74
2yr A	3.65	3.65	3.67	3.72
5yr AAA	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.81
5yr AA	3.77	3.80	3.81	3.90
5yr A	4.03	4.04	4.12	4.00
10yr AAA	3.93	3.94	3.99	4.02
10yr AA	3.99	3.99	4.02	4.07
10yr A	3.98	3.99	4.10	4.27
20yr AAA	4.56	4.57	4.55	4.62
20yr AA	4.44	4.44	4.47	4.49
20yr A	4.41	4.19	4.17	4.66

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.15	5.05	5.20	5.23
2yr A	5.22	5.13	5.25	5.31
5yr AAA	5.33	5.24	5.37	5.43
5yr AA	5.49	5.41	5.54	5.51
5yr A	5.60	5.48	5.71	5.59
10yr AAA	5.88	5.86	6.02	5.79
10yr AA	5.79	5.71	5.93	5.83
10yr A	6.00	5.94	6.00	5.93
20yr AAA	6.08	6.04	6.12	6.17
20yr AA	6.19	6.15	6.22	6.16
20yr A	6.22	6.18	6.26	6.31

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

These markets have been burdened more by the fallout of the “Liar Loan” fiasco than by interest rates. In fact, lower rates will not help these companies if they hold asset-backed securities of dubious quality.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	87.93	0.58	0.66%	0.74%	2.40%	5.33%	-1.28%	-0.35%	0.84%	2.48%
IEF	82.64	0.49	0.60%	0.21%	1.57%	3.27%	-0.05%	-0.16%	1.01%	1.85%
AGG	98.71	0.43	0.44%	-0.02%	0.32%	1.23%	-1.20%	-1.23%	-0.72%	0.43%
TIP	100.30	0.31	0.31%	-0.11%	0.92%	2.55%	1.08%	-0.38%	1.44%	0.00%
SHY	80.44	0.21	0.26%	-0.14%	0.31%	0.85%	0.50%	0.46%	0.79%	0.94%
FRE	55.70	-0.91	-1.61%	-3.43%	-7.17%	-8.46%	-17.96%	-16.48%	-15.54%	-3.20%
FNM	56.63	-2.33	-3.95%	-4.65%	-11.79%	-14.83%	-5.40%	-7.32%	-0.75%	19.37%
CFC	25.00	-1.77	-6.61%	-16.25%	-27.09%	-33.05%	-40.63%	-33.74%	-44.48%	-32.52%

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Bad debts, foreclosures, the end of the “liar loan” practices, Fed tightening, whatever; this consumer lending game died.

The biggest player not that is structured as a Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSA) is Countrywide Financial (CFC). CFC was down -16.25 pct in the last week alone – to close at $25.00. Do you recall all those rumors that Countrywide was going to be sold to Bank of America, or Private Equity, etc? Worse than a sick joke, that was a fraud, set up to help worried traders “off” their stock.

CFC is down -27.1 pct in two weeks, including -6.61 pct this past Friday. It is down -33.1 pct in four weeks and -32.5 pct over the past 52.

If the SEC had any integrity whatsoever (well maybe I’m a little too harsh), they would thoroughly investigate those rumors and the Financial Entertainment News talking heads who ran the stories to get to the source. Then pull the trading records, and subpoena people. Shake them up. Let the public know that the nonsense is going to be stopped.

The GSA’s Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are also losers. FNM was down -3.95 pct on Friday, -4.65 pct for the week, -11.8 pct for two weeks, and -14.8 pct over four weeks. FRE dropped -1.61 pct on Friday, -3.43 pct for the week, -7.2 pct over two weeks, and -8.5 pct over four.

Do you recall, before the manure hit the fan, that there were stories from Wall Street that maybe HB&B, including Goldman Sachs, was going to buy them up because those companies were undervalued? Total crapola. Look, Mr. Regulator, stop the nonsense or stand accused of participating in it. One way or another; take a stand!

The problem of course is that America is built on conflict of interest. The SEC has many masters. The elected representatives, supposedly their overseers, also serve many masters. Big money talks, so you know is the top dog.

You see, when small companies run into situations whereby their screwed up accounting and reporting systems don’t permit on-time filing to the SEC, they get slapped with notices and fines. But when the GSA’s can’t determine their assets from their liabilities, as was the case in the past couple years when their financial officers could not file financial summaries worthy of the paper they were written on, and so they just stopped filing, where were the SEC and the NYSE? Not a peep.

And then these people have the utter gall to tell us to our faces, in speeches and on TV through their every talking head, that we have a level playing field. I’ll tell you who has a level playing field. The answer is no one. You either have big money to tilt the table so that the chips fall into your pockets or you don’t have the money to buy off the regulators and self-regulators, so your chips are always slip sliding away from your grasp.

This isn’t the Treasury’s doing, and it’s not the Fed. It’s both houses of Congress, the White House and HB&B to blame. The people with the biggest money have the lobbies in place to have things go their way.

It can get only so bad before the People take matters into their own hands. Why, in France a couple centuries ago, it got so bad the people revolted and heads were chopped. I hope for the sake of the miscreants in today’s society that we don’t get to that extreme. But, seriously, something must be done to stop the nonsense. The SEC is a source of the problem, and not the solution. And it’s never the people who work for the SEC or HB&B for that matter; it’s the structure and the people who are in positions of oversight power and control. They are conflicted, and conflicts get resolved in America, not by who is right, but who is wealthy.

This situation has been bad for years; it’s getting worse.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB index lost -2.01 pct on Friday, taking the index down -0.45 pct for the week. The 50-day Moving Average is 317.12 and the 200-day MA is 310.14.

I recommend you draw trend lines right on the charts by joining the dots at the peaks of rising or falling markets. You’ll be surprised at how frequently the break-outs are right at these points. I used to laugh that farmers and bankers never could figure out how to use time series algorithms, but they could all draw simple lines on charts. (LOL)

As and when commodity price levels increase (eg, $CRB), the driver is either (i) economic demand that is outstripping supply, or (ii) the $USD pricing mechanism for the commodity, which if the item must be imported to the US becomes more costly.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

The Crude Oil futures market ($WTIC in the US for Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) dropped -1.54/bbl this week (-2.00 pct) to close at 75.48. The loss on Friday (-1.80) was most of the week’s loss.

The 50d MA is 70.72 and the 200d MA is 63.27, so Oil is still very bullish. And we haven’t yet had hurricanes in the Caribbean (thank goodness – my balcony is 11 feet from the water).

As the $USD has broadly declined, the price of oil on the world market has increased. Also, there are major OPEC producers today that require payment in Yen and Euro, which serves to push the $USD down in price. In addition, the very high rate of growth of the major emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, China and India) is placing greater demand on oil production, and hence price.

Consequently, the price of European Brent and US West Texas Intermediate Crude are at record-high levels. Alternatives (uranium, hydrogen, solar and wind) are being sought, but the global infrastructure still places greatest emphasis on oil.

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Last week I was bullish on Gold, saying it might even go countercyclical here. This week, $Gold (the near futures) jumped +24.30 an ounce (+3.68 pct) to 684.40. We are getting close to the 695 break-out (draw your lines on these charts), and the 700 price I said that the goldminer stocks need to move up to the next higher trading range.

The 50day MA is 663.88 and the 200d MA is 653.43. That’s bullish as the current price is well up and rising above the MA’s.

As long as there is a major expenditure by governments on war (the US is spending $12 billion a month on Iraq and Afghanistan alone), then the value of fiat currency, ie, paper money, will trend lower. Gold is priced in $USD, so as the USD falls relative to other currencies, the price of Gold, all other things being equal, will rise.

However, profit taking in the normal course, credit tightening by banks, and central bank sales (to help boost the $USD) have combined to hold back the price of Gold and the other precious metals from moving to new highs like Crude Oil.

One of the reasons is that Gold is a storehouse of value, with less utility than oil, which is a consumable product. So, Gold has greater investment value, which subjects its price to the vagaries of broad market influences and price cycles more so than say Oil.

Unless the fundamental picture changes, which would be the case as a new Bull market in equities is taking shape, which would favor the purchase of interest-sensitive and economy sensitive stocks, or where cash ought best be allocated to projects building economic wealth (real returns far higher than inflation), or where the war theater has been wound down (alleviating pressures on govt deficit and inflation), then I will stick to buying Gold on market pullbacks.

A couple weeks ago, there was a terrific buying opportunity, and I was there to tell you about it.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

$SILVER jumped +0.44 to close at 13.16. The rise on the week was +3.38 pct, including +1.25 pct on Friday.

The 50d MA is 13.09 and the 200d MA is 13.23, so $SILVER (near futures) needs to move a little higher before a break-out happens.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

$PLAT lifted +11.50/oz to 1298.30, up +0.89 pct. The 50d MA is 1304.26 and the 200d MA is 1229.77.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

+PALL was up +6.78/oz (+1.86 pct W/W) to 372.05. The 50d MA is 371.90 and the 200d MA is 353.86.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

Copper ran against the precious metals this week. $COPPER (near futures) dropped -6.80 (-1.92 pct) to 347.90, but the big loss was Friday (-2.63 pct).

The 50d MA is 347.50 and the 200d MA is 317.65, so the current price is right at the 50d MA.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AEM	42.88	0.60	1.42%	4.13%	-4.96%	5.20%	10.17%	18.95%	7.60%	16.97%
ABX	33.21	0.11	0.33%	3.85%	-3.74%	8.11%	11.33%	9.50%	10.77%	4.34%
BVN	39.43	-0.61	-1.52%	1.62%	-9.34%	-2.21%	42.81%	15.94%	34.34%	34.57%
NEM	40.90	-0.83	-1.99%	0.17%	-4.88%	-2.11%	-7.47%	-2.39%	-8.89%	-21.93%
MDG	27.00	0.25	0.93%	-1.10%	-11.82%	-5.46%	2.70%	3.97%	-6.64%	-2.56%
GG	24.72	-0.29	-1.16%	-1.12%	-10.53%	-3.70%	-9.58%	-0.04%	-9.18%	-18.31%
KGC	12.69	0.09	0.71%	-2.08%	-10.63%	-1.40%	11.12%	-9.10%	-2.61%	7.91%
AUY	10.65	-0.17	-1.57%	-4.05%	-15.61%	-10.50%	-13.63%	-25.47%	-20.11%	-2.20%
GFI	15.59	-0.49	-3.05%	-4.59%	-13.44%	-3.29%	-14.95%	-14.34%	-7.31%	-28.26%

As I say, “Let’s keep it simple. Gold production is falling. Inflation, though possibly mild, is growing constantly. Fiat money is growing much more rapidly than real (enonomic) wealth, ie, where effective rates of return are obtained based on the risk involved. Unless central banks sell their gold holdings, the price is going higher. Why make it more complicated than that?”

This week the miners lost some ground. The $XAU dropped -0.75 pct W/W. The 50d MA is 142.85 and the 200d MA is 139.76. Some of the selling is on account of under-margined stock accounts that were having a terrible week being sold out by HB&B, particularly the small cap heavy accounts of the retail trader.

If the broad market manages to hold ground here, I think the $XAU (stocks) will rally, and should gold move up through 695-700 (which is near by), then the stocks will rally also.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The $USD, which is a trade-weighted index we used to call the Morgan Dollar, was down large this week (-0.98 pct or -0.79) to 80.19. Friday’s loss alone was -0.60 pct. The sad sack USD is now down almost to the 70’s (as in under 80 cents on the index).

You know what we used to call the Cdn Dollar when it traded in the 70’s? We called it Chinese money. How stupid were we! It’s the USD that is really pegged to the Yuan these days. Now that’s what I call Chinese money!

It might as well be called Monopoly Money because those shrewd Opeckers are not going to take 20 wooden nickels for their oil. And here the US Treasury man – the entertainer formerly known as the “Gold”-man, now also correctly referred to as G-man, is telling everybody to blame it on China.

The way I see it, by pegging the USD to the Yuan, the US is causing all kinds of problems for China, not the other way around. If the Yuan were to escape the peg, just think what Americans could buy with 50-cent Dollars. But China can’t let that happen because they are holding about a trillion USD and want to get repaid at par.

Americans wouldn’t buy much anyway if the USD were to sink to 50 cents because oil would be over $100/barrel. Of course the rich and famous (that includes HB&B, and Friends & Family) would probably have no problem paying for that ($1200/oz) gold-plated watch they never seem to hand out to retiring employees.

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

US M3 continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

The Euro ($XEU) had a terrific rally week, up +1.39 (+1.02 pct) to 137.89.

The 50d MA is 135.70 and the 200d MA is 132.61.

If the Eurobankers would stop selling their gold, the Euro would go much higher, causing problems for local exporters. So I understand their plight. The US Admin has come calling for handouts, and the rich Europeans are forced to give them shelter. Oh, how times have changed.

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

The Pound sterling is something to behold. Now up to 204.33 (up +0.76 pct), it seems that half of Britain is either here buying property or traveling about on super-sized yachts and staying at Ocean Club and Atlantis.

I can only imagine the cost of pizza slices in Knightsbridge. Must be up to 2000 wooden nickels (that means $100 US).

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Even the Japanese Yen ($XJY) lifted this week, which shows how bad off the $USD is. The $XJY was up +0.15 pct to 84.36. The 50d MA is 82.13 and the 200d MA is 83.67, so the Yen as well as the sun is rising in the East.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar is almost at par with the $USD. It is now at 94.92, which the Americans love because even my wife and her sisters were shuffling off to Buffalo, where my wife bought her dress for my son’s upcoming wedding.

The 50d MA is 94.39 and the 200d MA is 88.95.

I remember when the Canadian Dollar hit 90 cents American a few months ago, and the chief economist for one of the top five banks was on. He told the BNN TV audience (as if anybody still listens to a bank economist on TV) that the Loonie was on the way down. NOT!

These banks have so much money, why don’t they just advertise and pay the air time for true professionals to put on the entertainment. The banks would at least save some face.

But, I shall not be too tough on the big banks – I’m still hoping they can open an account in less than two months.

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International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

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Table 13: International equities ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWU	24.36	-0.47	-1.89%	1.20%	-6.63%	-6.20%	3.44%	-3.22%	2.27%	13.20%
IEV	112.27	-1.98	-1.73%	1.20%	-6.03%	-6.04%	6.32%	-2.75%	5.02%	20.47%
EWC	29.60	-0.62	-2.05%	-0.34%	-7.27%	-4.02%	19.84%	5.04%	16.86%	22.52%
SPY	143.80	-3.85	-2.61%	-0.90%	-6.32%	-6.00%	1.72%	-4.36%	-0.70%	11.98%
QQQQ	47.42	-0.92	-1.90%	-1.19%	-5.25%	-2.95%	9.67%	1.78%	7.38%	27.71%
IFN	44.05	-1.60	-3.50%	-1.28%	-5.33%	-3.72%	-2.85%	4.88%	-3.93%	12.89%
EWJ	14.05	-0.18	-1.26%	-1.47%	-3.83%	-3.96%	-1.06%	-2.29%	-2.50%	3.61%
EWZ	60.90	-3.25	-5.07%	-1.57%	-10.76%	-6.18%	30.41%	11.74%	26.77%	53.36%
FXI	130.16	-5.93	-4.36%	-2.61%	-5.84%	-4.89%	11.82%	18.92%	25.21%	66.13%
TRF	64.38	-1.77	-2.68%	-3.33%	-11.20%	-8.62%	-27.30%	-8.03%	-15.74%	-6.76%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

This week, the EWJ (Japan), FXI (China), India (IFN), and Russia (TRF) dropped -1.47 pct, -2.61 pct, -1.28 pct and -3.33 pct respectively, W/W. Of course, these are not the exchange indexes, but merely ETF’s and mutual funds that trade in $USD, in the US.

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US Equity Markets Review

The broad US market dropped across the board, but the Small Cap indexes were worse off. The DJIA dropped -0.63 pct, S&P 500 -1.77 pct, Nasdaq Composite -1.99 pct and the Russell 2000 small caps -2.88 pct.

The retail account that mostly holds small cap stocks got crushed on Friday, down -3.64 pct. I’m wondering if their brokers just sold their stocks in the face of unmet margin calls.

Don’t let anybody ever tell you not to meet a margin call. Would you prefer to have your broker pick the stocks and the timing? If you think that’s going to be fairly done, then you really do suffer from credulity syndrome.

So meet the margin call enough to keep you in control long enough for you to do the selling job on your terms. But, I do agree that if you get margin calls, you are clearly operating too close to the margin of safety, and you will likely end up losing a lot of equity.

DJIA (interactive) chart

A dozen NYSE DJIA stocks to watch.

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

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A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CAT	78.96	-1.71	-2.12%	3.87%	-5.10%	0.19%	29.10%	7.63%	21.01%	8.57%
GM	32.04	-1.35	-4.04%	3.02%	-8.25%	-12.20%	8.79%	4.40%	-2.88%	2.69%
MO	66.60	-0.54	-0.80%	2.19%	-4.58%	-6.98%	2.59%	-4.54%	2.52%	10.69%
HPQ	47.41	-0.82	-1.70%	2.04%	-2.33%	3.11%	13.91%	10.69%	12.69%	45.47%
KO	53.28	-0.38	-0.71%	1.91%	0.13%	1.29%	9.67%	0.70%	10.45%	21.04%
VZ	42.75	-0.38	-0.88%	1.79%	1.11%	2.89%	13.04%	4.09%	12.00%	27.65%
INTC	23.91	-0.39	-1.60%	1.57%	-2.61%	-3.12%	17.49%	9.98%	12.62%	37.73%
JNJ	60.55	-0.48	-0.79%	1.31%	-2.01%	-2.54%	-8.81%	-5.86%	-9.06%	-4.01%
UTX	73.93	-0.83	-1.11%	0.87%	-2.76%	1.83%	17.70%	8.83%	8.72%	17.84%
T	39.45	-1.15	-2.83%	0.54%	1.00%	-2.98%	12.88%	1.41%	3.49%	27.67%
BA	104.24	-1.69	-1.60%	0.51%	0.37%	5.42%	16.90%	11.07%	15.76%	31.28%
DIS	33.90	-0.46	-1.34%	0.47%	-1.28%	-1.71%	-0.88%	-5.02%	-3.64%	12.85%
MRK	50.29	-1.35	-2.61%	0.34%	2.59%	1.68%	14.24%	-2.44%	12.43%	20.92%
PG	62.88	-0.42	-0.66%	0.10%	1.17%	2.28%	-2.57%	1.42%	-3.76%	5.77%
MCD	48.52	-0.47	-0.96%	-0.49%	-6.85%	-5.66%	10.60%	-2.79%	8.94%	35.38%
HON	58.18	-0.87	-1.47%	-0.73%	-4.56%	-1.52%	29.00%	3.89%	26.04%	51.04%
WMT	45.52	-1.21	-2.59%	-0.91%	-5.29%	-5.93%	-4.27%	-5.87%	-5.32%	1.77%
DD	46.35	-0.79	-1.68%	-1.00%	-11.92%	-10.81%	-5.49%	-8.90%	-7.76%	16.34%
PFE	23.51	-0.34	-1.43%	-1.18%	-5.58%	-9.30%	-10.57%	-12.50%	-12.28%	-7.84%
JPM	43.65	-0.94	-2.11%	-1.31%	-8.22%	-10.86%	-9.19%	-17.17%	-14.29%	-4.40%
MSFT	28.96	-0.56	-1.90%	-1.46%	-7.06%	-3.37%	-3.01%	-6.49%	-4.07%	19.57%
HD	36.19	-1.63	-4.31%	-1.52%	-8.12%	-10.20%	-11.88%	-7.35%	-11.36%	4.69%
AXP	57.49	-3.42	-5.61%	-1.81%	-10.88%	-6.54%	-4.75%	-9.41%	-1.15%	10.28%
GE	38.06	-0.97	-2.49%	-1.88%	-5.13%	-1.09%	0.24%	1.93%	4.94%	16.28%
C	45.72	-1.52	-3.22%	-2.66%	-9.88%	-11.57%	-17.25%	-15.25%	-16.36%	-5.67%
MMM	87.56	-1.56	-1.75%	-2.77%	-2.94%	-0.62%	11.88%	4.15%	18.53%	26.39%
IBM	111.89	-1.34	-1.18%	-3.23%	-2.54%	2.62%	15.03%	8.84%	12.83%	46.59%
AA	36.18	-1.70	-4.49%	-3.29%	-16.02%	-13.15%	23.35%	3.19%	11.53%	22.23%
XOM	82.08	-3.10	-3.64%	-4.10%	-10.72%	-5.07%	10.75%	1.74%	8.66%	20.05%
AIG	61.64	-2.17	-3.40%	-5.69%	-10.72%	-12.04%	-14.57%	-12.75%	-10.76%	2.78%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The reports from Value Line this week are on Altria (MO) and Coca-Cola (KO). Neither are Cara 100 companies.

In the case of Altria, there is nothing altruistic to the company as the name suggests. By smoking cigarettes, people are sponsoring the powerful tobacco lobby that, along with the oil lobby, the pharmaceutical lobby and others, work to pervert the fundamental intention of government, which is to serve the People. Energy and healthcare are basic human needs, but smoking is not, and in fact has been proven to kill individuals and be a burden on society, which we all have to pay for. This is a personal belief; others have strongly different views. So, I don’t promote my position, but it’s safe to say that Altria would never be in the Cara 100, and I have no interest in analyzing it.

Coca-Cola is an entirely different situation. While not in my Global Best 100 Companies, it is in the Cara US 100. The Return on Equity/Capital is superb, the financial strength is top-rated by Standard & Poor’s, the company is the global leader in its industry (beverages) and the industry is solid. For the next five years, S&P projects a total return of between +10 pct and +15 pct. The stock completed a long-term Bear in 2004, with the Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSI-7 well below the 30 line, which was confirmed in Dec. 2005-Jan. 2006, when the Weekly and Daily RSI-7 dropped below the 30 line, but the Monthly RSI-7 bottomed well above the 30 line. The MACD is in a strong upward trend, suggesting that should the broad market shift from Bull to Bear, KO might operate counter-cyclically. During the market beating on Friday, KO held its ground, losing -0.7 pct on the day, but still rising +1.9 pct on the week.

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(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Nov. 2)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 15: next one is due Sep. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 8: next one is due Sep. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 11: next one is due Aug 10)

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Wrap up:

We come together here to study markets. While I try to provide leadership and a home base, I know that each of us brings different skill-sets, interests, perspective to this Community. Furthermore, it is a comforting thought to know we are all in this together, and that wherever we are in the world, the Web connects us.

This is a virtual home base. I could be physically located anywhere I can get connectivity.

Now in my fifth week in paradise, I am giving thought to changing strategy – not that I plan to return to Canada (I left), but maybe change the plan to offering seminars/workshops on a yacht somewhere. That way if nobody shows, at least I can go fishing and diving.

I'll invite the local bankers. It seems they have plenty of time on their hands.

There are many illusions in paradise. One of them is that you can find a real banker or broker, a phone system that works that doesn’t cost $25 a long-distance call or an ISP service that isn’t $12/day, when it actually works. And forget bringing your global roaming telephone here. It doesn’t roam.

If I had someplace else to go, I’d say “Beam me up, Scottie.” It sure wouldn’t be BahamasAir taking me.

So, tomorrow, while the locals will be taking time off legally (it’s Emancipation Day), I’ll be working. And on Tuesday, I’ll probably still be the only one working.

Nine business days left. That’s the line. If I haven’t gotten my bank account or home set up by then, I’m out of here on that Saturday. I refuse to have another person lie to my face. I get enough of that in the market.

Well, after six Absolut-Cranberry’s and a couple Nassau Royale’s on this spectacular day weather-wise, I will be pleased to put this report to bed, typos and all.

Btw, the 60-oz Ocean Spray Cranberry cost $8.00, which is more than the local rum. The 3.78 liter drinking water is $4.00. There may be no income tax system here, but just like everywhere, the government has their hand in your pocket.

It’s been a slice.

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