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August 5, 2007
Sunday Commentary & Community Chat, Aug. 4, 2007, 6:10PM ET
The difference between the $GOLD price at StockCharts.com and other services like INO.com is significant. I don't know who to trust at this point. In any event, since it took me an hour with this lame excuse of an ISP here in Nassau to upload my WIR and make a very few corrections to the charts, I'm done for the day. Beaten. I do think somebody should look into the difference in the gold prices between services though. TIA..
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 5, 2007 06:14:58 PM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
Discourse
It's early, but Nikkei is down about 250.
Reuters now has yen below 118 at 117.54
Posted by: Seamus
at
August 5, 2007 9:01 PM [link]
stktrader: You're RIGHT. I hadn't even thought about the phrase "repricing risk".... The sell side always has jargon like "a correction" so you don't realize they're really saying prices for financial products "are going to CRASH".
stktrader, the possible genesis of "Repricing Risk" from the SFGate, Kathleen Pender
Posted by: RonK
at
August 5, 2007 9:33 PM [link]
I just read the interesting piece in the Kaiser Blog (http://www.kaiserbottomfish.com) about the Bre-X decision that exonerated John Felderhof.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6924726.stm
I know Joe Groia, Felderhof's lawyer, and have a very high regard for him. I didn't think he'd win the case, but good on him.
I never met Felderhof, but I did meet Bre-X CEO David Walsh and the Chief Geologist Michael de Guzman within a week of the fraud discovery in 1997 -- the world's biggest -- and in fact that night I introduced them to the Chief of the Russia Central Bank Gold and Foreign Currency Operations, and a couple other high level Russians he was with. The geologist was pushed or jumped to his death from a helicopter over the Indonesian jungle a week later. Some people say that even that was a hoax and that the man is still alive.
David Walsh was a heavy drinker, and a man who moved to Nassau Bahamas to protect his wealth from Bre-X. He had been founder and CEO. He died at the age of 52 from a brain aneurysm, before the trial started.
Until the Crystallex (KRY) story came along, Bre-X was the big story in mining. I sure hope Crystallex doesn't suffer a tragic ending, but somehow I think that books and movies will be made of both.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
August 5, 2007 9:33 PM [link]
Interesting reading from Australia on gold:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22193550-5005200,00.html
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
August 5, 2007 9:39 PM [link]
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
At the open (9:47pm ET), Singapore (-2.76 pct) and Tokyo (-1.26 pct) are getting crunched.
But, we have to wait til the sessions over before tallying the damage.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
August 5, 2007 9:48 PM [link]
Add this to the list of shorts for Monday AM...(LOL)
Former Home Depot Boss Bob Nardelli Chosen to Head Chrysler in Its Revitilization Effort
Posted by: Maximilian
at
August 6, 2007 12:04 AM [link]
Ok Bill, 90% in cash then what do we call this market if it is noT a bear yet?
Cow market? :-)
And also Nikkei did not fair too badly and Singapore though, ouch down 4%, thats got to hurt but Shanghai is actually in positive territory, weird.
Honey: I am going short Monday morning!
Posted by: agaunv
at
August 6, 2007 3:08 AM [link]
How low can they go?
Looking for some upside tomorrow morning on MLY.WT & MLY.TO. Not sure if I'll get any...
Sprott Molybdenum
Participation Corporation (the "Corporation") announces a normal course issuer bid. The Corporation intends to purchase, through the facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX"), up to 4,177,600 common shares of the Corporation ("Shares") representing approximately 10% of the unrestricted public float. The unrestricted public float of the Corporation as of August 5,
2007 shall be 41,776,000. The Corporation will not purchase in any given 30-day period, in the total, more than 889,766 common shares, being 2 per cent of the issued and outstanding securities as of the date hereof.
At 0940 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) of top European shares was down 0.6 percent at 1,507.81 points after earlier falling as low as 1,500.39.
"The market is rallying today because we are seeing a lot of M&A activity," said a trader.
Good Morning!
To whom it may concern:
GFI downgraded this AM.
Posted by: Craig
at
August 6, 2007 8:15 AM [link]
Motivation:
Over the weekend "old" Spot (LOL!) suspected Cramer of being disingenuous about his partial breakdown-exhibition of fear on Friday.
I have an easier explanation than Cramer being part of a tin foil hat conspiracy with the Fed, HB&B, and Friends.
If you run a television entertainment show about the markets and your ratings aren't what they used to be, wouldn't you be worried about the market taking a nasty turn to the negative?
I think he was talking about HIS job should we enter a bear market. THAT is what is going to kill his show. I think it's that simple.
I think he was genuinely afraid. THAT was the breakdown part.
Posted by: Craig
at
August 6, 2007 8:43 AM [link]
Bill,
Stockcharts.com only posts indeces sometime after the close, I believe the stated time is 8 pm.
It looks like the difference between the ino and stockcharts.com prices reflect the spot price and the near futures price.
I follow the gold basis, which is the difference between the spot price and the near futures price one month out.
It usually resides at ~$4. In the last week or so, this has widened to ~$11. This would normally indicate a progressive selloff in gold spot prices and futures to follow.
This has not occurred yet. We are in a strange situation when the gold basis has widened and prices advance instead of decline.
Posted by: FranSix
at
August 6, 2007 8:53 AM [link]
STKTRADER,
Right you are. (""Am I not clear on this or is "repricing risk" just another way of saying that prices in all instruments are going down?"")
Repricing risk seems to be another way to say "asset value deflation"
More interesting, is the fact that, contrary to the random walk/efficient market canard, the stock market is forever and almost always getting it WRONG, which is (one of the reasons at least) why one can make money in the market. The other of course, is the "Balls Of Steel" trading style of my man 2nd ave.
If I were to hazard a guess, I would imagine that the market will rally into the fed meeting at which meeting Gentle Ben the Bear will calm the roiling markets with his gentle talk and the markets then shall willfully misinterpret his words and find succor in them, as it is so wildly "adaptive" as the sociologists say, to the perogatives of Wall Street to do so at this time. But hey...I've been wrong before, God knows.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
August 6, 2007 8:57 AM [link]
Barrick and Agnico Eagle also downgraded by HSBC
Posted by: Craig
at
August 6, 2007 9:00 AM [link]
Hi Craig:
Since you are tying to sniff out Cramer's motivation for panic, I would bring to you attention an August 2 - Financial Times (Gillian Tett) article. The article reports that "bitter disputes are developing behind the scenes in the hedge fund industry about the way funds are valuing some assets for their end-of-month performance reports. In particular, the recent violent swings in the credit markets are making it unusually hard for some funds to agree the value of these assets with their administrators... That may mean investors will be forced to wait longer than usual for performance reports about the net asset value (NAV) of hedge funds' portfolios in July. It may even form fertile ground for future lawsuits, since sharp differences in the perceived value of hedge fund portfolios could influence investor confidence. 'There is a lot of wrangling going on behind the scenes, because it's getting hard to agree [about] how to value a lot of stuff,' says one US banking official. 'The bid-offer spreads can be incredibly wide - and that can really affect the NAV...' The data on funds' NAV for the end of July is currently awaited with particular eagerness by many credit funds, since some are believed to have suffered painful losses as a result of the recent market turmoil - not only in the subprime sector but corporate credit markets in general."
Posted by: lessmore
at
August 6, 2007 9:18 AM [link]
BIll has today's post up.
Posted by: writersblock
at
August 6, 2007 9:23 AM [link]
Shark,
You should call into Cramer and ask about " asset value deflation". Maybe even Wallstreet is getting tired of hearing "repricing risk".
Posted by: stktrader
at
August 6, 2007 9:26 AM [link]
Lessmore,
I know why he's afraid because I know why I'm afraid. No one knows how deep this hole is.
I just question his concern, which I believe is personal, not about other people's jobs, but his own. I think he's sincere in his concern for himself. I don't think he is working with the Fed or Treasury.
Posted by: Craig
at
August 6, 2007 9:26 AM [link]
Hi Craig:
You are correct in your view that Cramer's concern is for himself and only his own job and that he is not connected to the Fed or Treas.
Posted by: lessmore
at
August 6, 2007 9:35 AM [link]
So you wondered how 'they' would play the game. And here's the logical answer/rumor. In exchange for taking off their 'caps' FNM and FRE are going to take on some of that subprime debt. So in a wonderful ASSET TRANSFER, the banks and insurers are going to get bailed out, and YOU AND I, JOHN Q . PUBLIC are going to pay for it. SWEET!
That's the way they play the game. Long live HB&B
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Repricing risk?
We hear this term used many times during the day, everyday. I don't remember hearing these buzz words back in 2000 or 1987. Am I not clear on this or is "repricing risk" just another way of saying that prices in all instruments are going down? Or does it only reflect pricing in given instruments? TIA
Posted by: stktrader
at
August 5, 2007 8:32 PM [link]