As Senator Dirksen supposedly said "A [few hundred] billion here, a {few hundred] billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money. "

spot

Bloomberg reports Goldman's Global Alpha Fund down 26% YTD. 40% from July 31, 2006.

http://www.tiny.cc/6EV2C

Previous link is slow. Here is the original, I apologize for the atrocious length.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPuB5px_P6dc&refer=home

My take on Bernanke. Am I being too fair?

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/08/dear-professor-bernanke.html

"Calculated Risk" has an excellent website imo for commentary on R/E and mortgage related topics. This morning he commented that the liquidity Repos inserted on Friday for the purpose of supporting mortgage backed bonds are only good for 3 days (calendar days?, working days?, ???), and then will be either due to be paid back, or re-done.

Here is the link to his post (and the comments are also good). I guess we HAVE to assume that somehow the Repos will be quietly rolled over (or forgotten?), but if rolled over and re-issued, then press releases might appear that even more liquidity is coming in to support the markets every three days when actually it is just the same liquidity re-issued. Are they just buying time, 3 days at a time, or is there some other reason to be going through this process?

Here is the link for the post:
http://tinyurl.com/23grsq

Really, who is going to re-finance their mortgage, take on leveraged stock options, engage in a leveraged buyout, seek mergers and acquisitions with new debt? The money will have to go somewhere, though.

Maybe they'll clue in that its cheaper to lower the overnight rate than pour hundreds of billions into the market. Awfully Japanese of them to supply liquidity like that.

Article today in WSJ
"ETrade Financial: An Online Broker In the Clothing of a Mortgage REIT?" Weekend Investor/ by Herb Greenberg negative as to ETFC amount of total loans, especially real estate.

Need to assess Etrade not only as a stock but as place for my investment account.

Ron -
Bernake's position has increasingly evolved into a pseudo-cabinet position that has far too much input from political forces. The fast and easy days of Greenspan have created a situation that is a total mess. I truly feel sorry for him.

FOr too long the Fed has been the lapdog for the president, regardless of party. The policies of the 60s that led to our 'default' of Bretton-Woods in '71 is one of the most significant things to happen to the US in the last 50 years and most people don't even know about it. The bottom line is that there are way too many forces that have too much influence over the value of the dollar. China, OPEC, Russia and even Japan could do some serious damage to our economy, not to mention the internal forces who have quenstionable (greedy) motivations.

Ok, let me rehash this.

some areas of the markets are still in turmoil. but, friday, fed's action has removed one big uncertainty from the market. before fed's action, there were genuine worry about failor of major banks. creditors to the bank don't know if MBS banks hold worth anything. if enough creditors are worried, it may create a "run on the bank" situation.

after fed's action, creditors know they will be protected, because if they ask the money back, they will get it, as banks can exchange MBS for cash from fed, even if those MBS worth nothing. fed essentially prevented a "run on the bank" situation and signaled they would/could bailout banks who have no cash but worthless MBS.

when smart money realized this, they started buying financials, hence index reversal. Now, financial media or so called experts won't tell you this, because they are either clueless (many journalists are majored in literature), or try to profit from this.

it doesn't mean bank stocks will be good investment. but fed is on call to pop up one part of the market. what's laughable is bush doesn't want to bailout consumer, but he obviously has no problem with fed bailout banks. i understand the reality is world revolves around rich people and big guys, but do we need to be so obvious?

Financial turmoil concerns put aside, what I find is that the credibility of Bush, Paulson, Bernanke, & the ratings agencies is subzero...."contained" is a word that may be laid to rest for a good long while. Note your own reaction when one of these players gets on t.v. to make a statement.

Bill, I have come to really appreciate your commentary and check it out every day. I do have a question about your recent thinking that we are getting past the worst of this downturn, and that question is about timeframes. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe you also think that this may be the last hoorah for the current 5 year bull (with the dollar falling and gold rising and stocks blasting off). This question of timeframes is a critical one to understand. People with a longer term time horizon that have participated since the early stages of the bull might address the situation differently from someone commiting capital with shorter timeframes in mind.

Personally I have a percentage of funds allocated with a longer term time horizon in mind, and a much smaller amount of money in a futures account which I use for shorter term speculation and hedging of positions. Your insights are very much appreciated on a daily basis.

I am working for a tenured doctor that has had to jump through several hoops with Bank of America to secure a jumbo mortgage. Wait until people that got their mortgage last time try to refinance with supporting documents consider

ing that their last one was done with a stated income. All of these individuals that have hidden income for years are going to find out how difficult it will be to refinance in this new mortgage market.

We want a "free market" until we don't. Protect corn (ethanol) farmers with tariffs and bans on Brazilian sugar-based ethanol. Let the markets 'work', until they collapse under a mountain of high-risk debt. Transfer the risk from the private sector to GSEs and leave the taxpayer (potentially) holding the bag. Privatize profits and socialize risk.

Run parts of the defense budget as special purpose entities, sheltering the costs from the budget.

Conor says he is going to have a special Weekly Update this week comparing what 'we' say and what 'we' do.

The game has gotten 'dirtier' than ever, although we can still compete.

And as for pension obligations (corporate, local, state, and federal) and the looming entitlements crisis, we're just shoving those under the rug until it's a bill coming due.

I lurk a lot and genuinely value Bill's commentary. I rarely post for the reason that I generally feel I have little of value to add. Today's post is an exception in view of the recent market volatility.

I think that next week will produce a snap back rally. The recent weakness is probably related to hedge fund selling to comply with the redempton notices they have already received prior to the August 15th deadline for Sept 30th redemptions. However, it is just a snap back rally before the decline that will be related to the redemption notices that must be received before September 15th for October 30th redemptions.

On a technical basis, for the general market, I rely on the GE daily chart. Its daily technicals are almost in the short term accumulation range. For the gold market I have been watching GFI's monthly chart, but I am not ready to rely on it.

On a technical basis I show us with "sideways" signals right now, with one bullish indicator short term, but there are major troubling aspects to those technicals.

The worst of them are proprietary internals that I watch along with the actual index action. They are all awful - without exception.

So my technical view is that we may well bounce here, but I will not turn bullish in the short-to-intermediate term until and unless we are able to breach and close over 1520-1522 in the S&P and have confirmation in the other indices.

One indicator I use that many others do not is the confirmation pair of the Nasdaq Composite and NDX, just like the Dow Industrials and Transports. Same basic idea - both must confirm.

Friday the NDX breached a key support level but bounced; it was the sole "hold out" to that point on a raw "all in" short bearish call from my perspective. So we are back to "sideways."

On a macro (economic, etc) level I just don't see anything to be bullish about. Housing is a wreck that can't be fixed EXCEPT by precipitous price declines in homes. The "liar loan" mess from Greenspan's "PUT" in '01/02 resulted in a doubling (on average) of home prices relative to incomes. This is simply unsustainable and will come back to historical norms. Until it does, this mess can't be worked out, and equities are under severe threat.

Not directly of course. But because some 20% of the economy is in one way or another connected to housing. Consumer durables, home improvement, construction, etc.

Since the first quarter I have noted with alarm a precipitous shift in consumer spending into revolving credit. I first identified this in the first quarter earnings cycle and while many CHEERED the "bullish" nature of this balance sheet and interest income growth by card issuers and transaction volume by processors, it is in fact no such thing. Shifting debt from relatively low-interest home equity loans to credit cards is not a choice - it is being done by force as you can't MEW the money any more. This has precipitously increased the total debt service requirements in households, which will flow through and flatten consumer spending. Not instantly, but with absolute certainty.

I believe there is simply no way we can avoid a recession, and it will become apparent before the end of the year. I am calling it "Grinchmas". Equities, of course, have a nasty habit of losing 30% of their value in recessions....

And that ~$300 billion thrown at the market to prevent an outright crash (which was exactly what was about to happen twice this week!) has to be paid back MONDAY! Now what? The credit market seizure in the mortgage space is not going away; that paper is worth a totally unknown amount of money as it is full of loans made on the basis of lies.

I have been playing the short side the last few days but Friday went out flat with the exception of a few short positions in builders which were put on after the Quants forced a short squeeze in them as they took off leverage. That pattern Thursday and Friday was so blatant that it just SHOUTED at you - when you see the Yen and S&P moving in lockstep you've got a very abnormal market, and someone's trying like hell to unwind leverage and avoid the margin call monster.

On Metals I like Silver better than gold due to the huge short position in silver that will at some point be squeezed, however, neither is a good idea right now. The risk of a major margin-call cascade still exists and until that subsides owning metals is asking to get crushed.

The Market Next Week:

I am going to put myself in the camp of further down moves in the market next week (2% to 3%) and maybe for the remainder of August. We may have calmed ourselves here, but I fear that HB&B will make the most of it next week by using fear to build a base for the next move up. The small investor usually freezes up at this time, but what about those on Margin? Could we get margin calls on Monday? And I fear there are some who are in hedge funds who have to be qualified (ie be somewhat 'wealthy') to hold them who may have be more in hock if they borrowed. I am glad I can enjoy this weekend, but I feel there are some who last week saw their neat wealth go down the drain.

Bill: If you can delete my previous post of today at 12:00pm, I will repost it and hopefully it will be more presentable. Thanks.[011]

To confer BernardF's point, most readers probably will agree when I say that, if you want to be a better trader/investor and make money, Bill's blog is priceless.

Longterm readers know that Bill helps you learn "how to catch a fish" instead of just "throw you a fish". New readers may rely on Bill's specific advices, I find his analysis is what really sets him apart.

Bill provides his analysis and logic behind his analysis day in and day out. In the process, he teachs everyone invaluable investment skills. This type of advice and analysis you usually have to pay to get, and sometimes, even if you pay, you won't find anywhere.

When I first started investing, I subscribed to WSJ/Barron's as most people do. It strikes me that, when they report a M&A or LBO, usually the same day before market open the same deal is announced. When they touted a stock, the stock often gained 60% over the last year, and they told you the stock could gain another 10%~20% according to a repected fund manager who owns the stock. They almost never talk about the importance of senior management. They seldomly mention ROI, ROE, or FCF (I guess because many of reporters were not majored in finance, economic or math).

They often give you pseudo analysis as to why you are in a bull market or a bear market. They tell you to be cautious when market hits a bottom, and tell you don't mind fundmentals when market is trully in a bubble.

In short, if you want to get entertainment, get worked up, or go hyperbole, you can read stories in financial media such as WSJ, or listen to CNBC. If you want to make money, at time of distress or when market is in a bubble, you can come to Bill's blog to get the most valuable analysis.

There are many blogs out there today. Some by hedge fund manager wannebe who gave you stock ideas and won't tell you the inner logic. You may make some money, but you will never be a better investor/trader by reading them. Some regularly appears in CNBC and really try to use the free blog to sell their premium services. Now you have to ask yourself, if they are any good, why nobody asks them to manage a fund? Why they are so afraid to give you some real analysis?

I am not trying to write preface for Bill's book. I just feel that at time like this, if you listen to financial media, read some so called #1 financial blogs, you get a bunch of scary numbers, charts, and emotional shouts. I got to say, many retail investors probaly are emotionally stressed out by the financial media and so called #1 financial blogs. They probably made or will make some stupid decisions that will further enrich HUMB&Bs. Only in here, you see sound and calm analysis, only in Bill's community, you see people try to help each other to navigate this market.

I say let's keep and make this community better. And let's express our gratitude to Bill for what he does, especially in days like this.

BernardF and Bill Cara ...

Wow!!!

The two of you have put up predictions here (for the next week) that are in direct diametrical opposition to each other. One of you will be flat out right and one of you will be flat out wrong (unless the market is flat out flat).

And next week when one of you stept up and says 'see!' what I actually want to see is for the other to step up and say 'well, I was flat out wrong but such is the way of the world.'

Anyway, it will be most interesting to watch for the outcome of this 'battle of the brightest minds.'

T minus seven days and counting.

Peter Brimelow on gold: http://tinyurl.com/399lyr

The title refers to gold, but the reason I provide the link is to point out the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index was at 8.6% as of Thursday night (and presumably did not change much following Friday's action), down sharply from 44.5% three weeks ago.

I'll let his Don Hays quote finish off the thought:

[On Thursday, Hays wrote: "Clients are way more Pessimistic than Euphoric in the John Templeton market cycle of "Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Grow on Skepticism, Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria." Our Asset Allocation Model confirms what we have heard in the field; that clients are very nervous. This bull market still has a long way to go before Euphoria.]

I haven't sensed any euphoria since the Dow hit 14,000...so not surprised (from a sentiment perspective) at Bill's call for a return to market highs.

On the other hand, I am VERY open to bearish arguments, and would appreciate hearing from anyone who sees significant (short-term) downside from here.

Thanks in advance...

yc32..i've noticed the same thing about subscription services (lack of truly educational content)...could it be it's not in their best interests to teach you to fish > they'd put themselves out of business..

Today's FT attributes much of Central Bank (CB) interventions to "asset backed commercial paper" or ABCP. (We get a new jargon phrase every week in this crisis!)

That's how German IKB bank lost its bucks. Per FT, many large banks create: "asset-backed credit arbitrage funds" for which they issue commmercial paper. They invest the proceeds in longer-term derivatives, including the CDO's that include sliced-up sub-prime mortgages. It's apparently this commercial paper market which seized up, and in large part caused CB intervention.

Reading this, I asked myself, WHAT ARE THESE PEOPLE PLAYING AT? What about the basic lesson of never borrowing short-term to invest long-term? What about never buying investment products you don't understand? (Nobody can know how much sub-prime or LBO-loan risk lurks in the complex derivatives.)

If the banks cannnot borrow commercial paper to maintain their "asset-backed credit arbitrage funds", the banks are on the hook to fund them:

ABN $45B, Halifax $40B, HSBC $25B.

BTW, the tone of the FT is very much that we are in the midst of a panic, and shows no sense that CB intervention has calmed traders.

They make it seem that it has been banks afraid to deal with other banks in this commercial paper market which is at the core of the problem.

Some of the articles talk about the loss of confidence in the world's financial infrastructure. Whata a mess !

ALOHA !!

Jock ... "asset backed ... " ???? Unless you consider "debt" an asset then "backed" it is!

ALOHA !!

GOLD SHORTS
There have always been metal "short positions" especially in PMs(for the benefit of end users not producers)! Yet Goldman Sachs keeps covering their gold short position on the TOCOM(the only reliable and trustworthy source for gold short positions), now at one of the lowest levels since Goldman moved onto the TOCOM. That does not portend for a lower gold price nor does the recent market instability and central bank printing exploits. Money supply and debt are expanding at record global levels on top of already record global levels. 1+1 = 11?

SAVE THE DEBT ~ SELL THE GOLD !!

I bought British Gold Sovereigns($160-$162USD ea.)on Thursday and Friday. I have not sold off any PM shares. I have not bought any either ... yet! I am not all in ...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

I am NOT a permabull...but I do believe in mean reversion, with the financials the key.

But with the Worden T2108 sub20, www.Stockcharts.com
$NYA50R and $HILO charts massively oversold, and the Federal Reserve (Repo Man) pushing very hard, I am in the bounce camp...longer term, not so much as Borat might say...

by the time FT or WSJ can write an in-depth analysis on anything, everything will already be reflected in price. I agree with Bill, be careful not to panic, the smart money is indeed buying now. If you want to sell short, it is already too late.

You MUST pay attention when something is so extremely volatile! Bush's people are on board this stock, if you follow the link on paragraph 4. Is the neocons responsible for this?

SWC is incredibly volatile! Hammered down half from the $16.47 high in just three months, Bottomed at the $8.03 on this Tudesday before the earnings conference call, immediately rallied HUGE next day to high of $11.04 and settle for a 20% gain at $10.40, flat on thursday, Rallied Friday moring to high of $10.84 and then plummeted to the low of $8.38!!! Such a stock with extremely narrow floats traded on huge volume and huge swings up and down. I bet you never saw anything like that!!!

It's a swing trader's PARADISE! I would guess most day traders would LOVE to see such volatility. Such huge daily swing creates huge profit potentials if you can do it right.

This is an incredible stock worth paying attention to. Spend your weekend study it. Maybe you can swing trade and get a quick 20% out of it in one day! But the biggest gain will come from holding for long term. Tell people about this interesting stock.

Harry Koza, who writes about bonds for the Globe & Mail, had a great column on Thursday about the fallout that we should expect from subprime mortgage defaults. I'm sorry I can't provide a link to the article, but here's an excerpt giving the bottom line.
________________________________________________
Okay, so let’s take a quick and dirty stab at predicting the future. So far this year there have been $240- billion in subprime mortgage resets, which has generated, according to the Mortgage Lender Implode-o-Meter (ml-implode.com), 114 belly-up mortgage lenders and, in just the past two months, 17 big global hedge funds that have halted redemptions, of which 10 have gone blooie.

Based on Mr. Mauldin’s schedule of resets, there will be about $840-billion of resets by the end of July 2008. That’s 3.5 times the amount that’s reset so far this year. Making the presumptuous assumption that foreclosures, bankruptcies, CDO failures and hedge fund implosions continue at the same rate, we could see another 400 mortgage lenders buy the farm and another 360 hedgies get trimmed by this time next year.

It all reminds me of the old Eagles’ tune, Hotel California, as if done by Led Zeppelin: “If there’s a bustle in your hedge fund, don’t be alarmed now. You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”

JJ2000 etc.

The link on paragraph 4 of what ? - Wow, what crazy action in SWC. Looking back into '06 you don't see volume like those two crazy days!

Mom&Pop Stuff: Let’s call this ‘Heart of Hearts’

Bill says MU is not a broken company. When it reached the AZ (accumulation zone) he suggested adding this Cara 100 equity to one’s portfolio. When that happened late last year and into the winter of ‘07, I began nibbling at it, but MU had other bottoms to reach, which caused me to step back.

First In/First Out is the way Fidelity (my brokerage company) works. I know there is a way to change that order, but one must declare at the onset of trading, and that didn’t happen a decade or so ago when I was signing up.

What this means is those high priced first buys were the ones that had to be sold first. If you wanted to hold on to a core of good stock, but didn’t want to wait 6-to-12 months to generate some profit; did you have to bite the bullet and sell more shares than you’re willing to sell? Absolutely not!

In my ‘Heart of Hearts’, Bill’s mantra ‘MU is not a broken company’ continued to resonate. Meanwhile the stock’s price fell some more, and as Spring flowers smiled at me from outside my home office window, a light came on in my noggin. Here is what I decided to do, have done, and want to share with those of you who might be novices in utilizing investing techniques, like me.

My plan and goal was as follows:

I have three (3) trading accounts. MU was accumulating in my Rollover, and the stock kept declining in price. I stepped back. Bill kept saying MU was still an outstanding company, DRAM problems notwithstanding.

The brainfart that occurred convinced me to buy some more MU but in another account, so I used my Roth (since selling into strength from the Rollover at a profit looked a long way off and I would have to sell more shares than would be preferred to reach that point), so I decided to purchase several lots at the ever lowering prices. Then I quit before my sleep became fitful.

Several months passed and low and behold the stars were with me, as were the RSI values. It was finally time to sell the low priced Roth MU with an ASP (average share price) in the low $11 range, when the equity’s market price reached the Rollover ASP (in the high $12 range). In this way, I would realize some profit now from my total investment.

On June 1, 2007 the first goal was met, i.e., MU market price reached the ASP of the Rollover asset, which included the brokerage sell fee and the Roth shares were sold. In the process, I made 20.740% APR (annual percentage rate) on the Roth MU purchases that were bought last and sold first. I beat the system by implementing Last In/First Out!!!!!!!!!!

Now I know this is getting long winded and you might ask why I’ve waited this long to share positive stuff. Well, here is the reason. I wanted to try a PM (precious metal) stock by this method and used IAG as the confirmer. On Thursday 8.09.07, when the share price hit $9.03, BANGO ! I made 36.760% APR within a three (3) month period. Bill taught me to aspire to the Buffett Standard of 26% as a minimum profit.

This process may have another name and may have been used as an elementary tool by many a trader, but I’ve not read about it here. It works! I hope it may help, especially those of you who know a good stock that doesn’t seem to cooperate with RSI’s or your conception of where the bottom resides. ;)

peter,

i want to follow up on your reply to one of my posts from august 8th:

"2nd_ave: Regarding most market timers getting it wrong. The answer is no. They get it right most of the time, because most of the time they follow the long term trend. Where they do go wrong is with market corrections.

In general they aren't prepared for the correction and have no idea when to reverse their position: Thus they lose much of their gain in those market corrections."

I was trying to reconcile your statement with the observation that most short-term timing moves get it wrong, as demonstrated time and again by Mark Hulbert's sentiment indicators for the broad market and for the gold sector. (For those who are unfamiliar with Hulbert's indexes, he has a pretty track record "predicting" short-term direction based on a contrarian approach to what the "majority" of newsletter writers are recommending.) Would you agree that if we limit the time horizon to "short-term," then in fact most of them get it wrong?

C.Note-I'm trying to understand if your post refers to the "wash sale" rule, which disallows claiming a loss if you repurchase the same stock within 30 days.

(I know of no regulation that would require you to sell more shares than you wish, regardless of whether FIFO or LIFO accounting is used, and regardless of how many accounts you have. That can't be legal.)

TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOUR MARKET OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THE BEARISHNESS AND CRISIS,I BET PEOPLE ARE SURPRISED ALL STOCK INDICES CLOSED UP FOR THE WEEK..1430 IN THE S&P IS STRONG SUPPORT...ALL THE MONEY ADDED BY THE FED AND ECB IS BULLISH FOR GOLD

2nd...just going to post some long term chart observations, and I do think your question helps frame the issue of noise and distraction that can make investing inefficient, fwiw.

At fidelity I can get 10 yr monthly charts. In general supports one more hurrah upward but I'm not sure when.

Nasdaq: A stealth rally been going on since -03, wow, sure looks steady in the shadow of the bubble. Closer up, on a daily chart, the 20dma broke a downturning 50dma...whipsaw between 200 and 50 biggest risk, the range between the two is small, only 1.7%

.spx: Bouncing off longterm high. Have to imagine that this is a huge fight between the bulls and the bears. Classic, imho, TA call is for bounce off upper resistance(all time high) to continue to 20ma(5% more down) or 50ma(14% more down) before moving back up break all time high.

.rut: Most orderly respect for a four year trend channel. Issue is how long the small cap rally continues. What does the almanac say? Could be a great entry time if the rally continues. Risk is a potential 4% retrace to bottom of channel

ILF/latin america as proxy for emerging growth: Wide swath up channel. In the mid line of channel. Hard to say if this is support. Risk is 15% to bottom of channel. rsi(7) extended at 70 but remains as part of uptrend.

ewj/japan: Last 5 years in up channel but bouncing off top of channel, rsi(7) broke 50 heading south.Risk, 6% to bottom of channel.

xau: As Bill has remarked, multi year basing. Kind of a Rorschach for TAs that like to talk about wedges and triangles. Rsi(7) has broken a downtrend and bouncing off bottom of an up channel.

My very layman view is that short term whip saw risk is awful. Using the most orderly index, the small caps, would have told us that time to increase cash was in june and july, and to replace with small cap short positions...though now the easy money has been had. xau remains the best hold.

Wanting to keep it simple, my two questions: how much to allocate to cash and which equity assets to have exposure to. Top down advocates make a good case that most of the variance in the stock mkt can be accounted for by knowing the answers to these two questions. If I was going to handle my own account, which I am doing now, I would not want to subscribe to a forecaster. Rather have the tools to do it myself and stay within a specific model. Personally, my biggest struggle is degree of exposure to equities. All or none, though I'm ok with all cash per se, seems too reflexive. I have a model for choosing equity assets but nothing for how much to risk, other than my age and time to need money. Portfolio management is at the heart of the issue for me. If it gets too complicated the discipline, at least for me, will fall apart.

peter-apologize for all the belated questions, but i have only today found time to carefully reflect on your many (and much-appreciated!) posts of August 8th:

"If you look back to between Aug 2005 and May 2006 you see that gold moved from under $450 to above $700 a $250 plus move. Gold has put in a good solid base in at these levels and is playing in a tighter range at the higher end of the its trading range: this is a good sign it is about to have a move.

Since the USD is weakening we can assume the move is higher, the question is how much? If I use the last move in terms of % I get a number of over $1000 U.S. For the new base. If I use the last meve in terms of actual price movement I get a number around $850 USD either way I come up with a number that is well above $800 and looking at the charts I suspect we break $710 by Oct. 1st. and $750 by Dec. 31st."

Posted by: Peter [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 9, 2007 1:57 AM

Do you see gold breaking to the upside (only) in tandem with an upside break in the markets, or are there enough reasons for the POG to move up that it can make a counter-cyclical (to use Bill's move in spite of overall market direction?

I have been waiting (as undoubtedly have many others) for that moment to place an out-sized contrarian bet on the miners. Starting to like the amount of skepticism right now re both a return to market highs and a parabolic move in gold (ie, why stop at 750)... Thus a positive that we no longer have headlines about 800 gold, another positive that we are looking to go down, and the ultimate positive that if gold goes up, no one is looking much beyond 750...

My word, what have I gone and done -esbisworried-. Second time this week I have foot in mouth problems. My advice, listen to Bill. He has the crystal ball. I only use Tea Leaves and my perspective is the Canadian Stock Market. May we both be correct with the NYSE up and TSX down. And maybe the market goes up if the shorts cover (Forgot about the new US tickless rule on shorts).

For next week I am bearish on Financials, Oil, Small Caps, Base Minerals, Technology and mildly bullish/neutral on gold (read what -kaimu- has to say on gold today - I agree with his views). For now I am waiting for evidence of a bottom that I did not see last week. I'd rather be in late than early and I don't mind being wrong as long as I make money doing it.

I am concerned about those who put their money in funds and now want to get out. How do the funds get the money to pay for redemptions? Borrow money or sell stocks? Bill has long advised us to have the "cash" on hand and ready. How many of us do. I know Bill does - he told us.

Precious is -JonEB's- comment: [It all reminds me of the old Eagles’ tune, Hotel California, as if done by Led Zeppelin: If there’s a bustle in your hedge fund, don’t be alarmed now. You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.]

'think'
----
Expanding from my previous comment of today:

[...but I feel there are some who last week saw their neat wealth go down the drain.]

Hit the wrong key. I meant 'near wealth'. How many bought a house with no equity hoping to see housing prices go up to create this paper 'near wealth'. Who profited by selling this idea/concept? Affected are not just those poor innocents who bought their first home on hope. How may bought that second or third investment property expecting zero equity to blossom into pure gold on 'sub-prime loans'? How many are now own a property with negative equity? And what about those hedge funds. How much are the managers going to pay back for not out-performing benchmarks. Not one. Great you (the investor - now isn't that term a misnomer) lose your money and the managers either resign or get promoted. And what about the near wealth in those employee/director/management stock options. Well, let's adjust the exercise price down. The Hurricane has landed in Wall Street and her name is Katrina - remember how much that one cost the economy and how Mr B handled that one.

If I keep this up, I will have to take Bill's advice and start my own blog (to vent). Now that is an idea. Having the regulars here set up one blog (I first typed bog) to vent and everyone else can watch. The wonder and power of the internet.

Okay, I am having a bit of fun with it all. I really like the comments today. [On the other hand, this is getting my blood pressure up]. [012]

apologies: make that "counter-cyclical (to use Bill's term) move to the upside in spite of overall mkt direction..

jasper-appreciate your post...keep in mind i am basically a beginning investor trying to find his way...if i were to characterize my style at this point in time > conservative, but willing to press my bets when i sense too much negativity...thus holding mainly cash, but sensing unexpected and thus major buying opportunities in XAU and OIH...

i keep going back to some of my intuitive (and perhaps careless) ruminations from early summer...still believe we will see much higher (maybe even 4-digit gold and 3-digit oil) prices...which of course means seeing both XAU and OIH in the 200+ range...

that's my take...but keep in mind the Net (not to mention the financial press) is littered with many famous last words...

as for where to allocate your portfolio: think i mentioned once before that as you would have no problem handing the keys over to bill, let him drive...for the short-term, he was pretty clear this morning...

best of luck...

jasper-postscript, your posts give the impression of a very careful and thoughtful approach to investing, and we could all do a lot than handing you the keys...

I'm not sure whether to be bullish or bearish, so I'll just remain agnostic on this market. It's worth remembering that the fuel for the global market rise has been liquidity. A credit crisis reduces reduces liquidity by its nature. The de-leveraging that we've witnessed cause all sorts of aberrations--one being some pretty poor stocks rocketing upward. Stocks with poor fundamentals and poor numbers reporting but high short positions. I'll attribute that to forced buying to close out short positions to pair up with some of the forced liquidations.

While there was a good bit of liquidity injected, I do not believe that we've seen all of the dead bodies yet--we can merely smell them. The FED's and their compatriots' injection of liquidity was akin to spraying Glade air freshener in a mortuary where the AC has blown due to a circuit overload. The large question is whether or not the injected liquidity is a stop gap and withdrawn or left in the system. If it is not withdrawn and used to cover the valuation shortfalls of this CDO toxic waste, I'm not sure that I'm smart enough to see how it gets reinfused into the market.

I do believe that we are witnessing systemic risk. When I was studying this concept, particularly in relation to hedge funds, I noted an interesting fact: that fixed income arbitrage was among the most risky strategies for hedge funds and one that caused the greatest failures. Why? Because to arbitrage small spreads, you need to lever up. Substantially.

If you bought BBB CDO's for $1M and you only put $100K of your own money in and borrowed $900K. Now, lets' say that $1M is only worth $500K (50% haircut) on valuation. Not only have you lost all of your money (and if you are a hedge fund, that of your investors), you still owe the bank $900K for which you can only liquidate your holding and pay them $500K. The bank is left with a $400K unpaid loan and your pockets are only filled with lint.

I think that we have a lot of financial institutions (investment banks, banks, insurance companies and the like) (1) holding the bag on these loans; (2) worried about the collateral of their lucrative hedge fund clients; (3) asking for more collateral; (4) worried about their own holdings of this toxic waste and what it will do to their balance sheets/income statements.

Due to these revaluations, our next earnings quarter will likely be surprising to some investors.

Whether we have bottomed or not will only be validated in retrospect; otherwise, it is anybody's guess and there will be many opinion luminaries that will have vastly divergent ideas on the matter.

Just remember the October time frame for reporting--that is when the bodies will be carted out in Monty Python Bring Out Your Dead style. So perhaps we go back up and investors jitters are steadied. Fall reporting will either reaffirm that the worst is over or the thud that you will hear is the other shoe dropping.

Regarding corporate earnings and balance sheets: With the massive buybacks and the slowing in the corporate and consumer sectors, I believe that we'll see these balance sheets weaken.

I'll make this prediction (with some hesitancy, and certainly with no expertise): We'll be in a full blown recession by Spring of 2008 if there is not a significant turnaround. The American and Japanese economies are the Number 1 and Number 2 economies in the world--and both are reporting weaker economic numbers.

sorry-"a lot worse than..."

How I got here (August 11, 2007)

The following discourse is for your general interest. I am stepping back a bit here from the market activity this week and thinking how I have done since May of 2006 (the Cara period). It is a reflection of the historical and factual of my personal investments over this time. Some of my investment ideas (with due diligence) came from this blog and some from other web sites that individuals link from this site. I am not a trader and I look for those investments that I can hold for six months or more.

The tech tumble of 2000/2001 hit my mental ability to invest in a hard way. My faith in newspapers, investment letters, analysts, the internet and fake TV put me on the road to holding only the safest of investments or near cash. In May of 2006 I was 60% in cash and the rest was 'near cash'. I know Bill has been out of stocks and holds cash, but along the way he has pointed out stocks of interest. Slowly I ventured back into stocks and learned from this Blog community. My hobby in investments turned into one of taking the whole business of managing my investments seriously. Previous to the Blog I was on my own and although I read and tried to master the stock market, everything became more of a mystery. Talking heads had me swinging from one plan to another without focus.

Presently I see that I had the abilities all along, but not the focus. The tools were there and the ability to use them was not.
----
Here's a look at the factual. My recent investment returns before the Blog:

Year........Investment Account...Retirement Account
2005.BC..........3.35%..............+1.38%..[BC = Before Cara]
2006.to.May.BC...5.73%..............-7.02%
-----------
And the period after reading the Blog:

2006-May to Dec.24.45%..............21.85%..<-- since reading the Blog
2006............28.49%..............14.84%..<-- for the year, sometimes holding 50% cash
-----------
2007.to.July....12.01%...............8.07%..<-- sometimes holding 50% cash
July.to.Aug 10..-2.74%..............-1.75%..<-- change in 8 trading days
-----------
4W% Change......-4.26%..............-5.83%

The 4W% Change is what interests me. Those weekly tables Bill puts up each Saturday, although they focus on US stocks are valuable in evaluating how I am doing. This week I feel confident I am doing okay even with the negative numbers showing up - I just look at the tables and see the reality. Before I would sink into 'putting my head in the sand'. A very negative attitude. I had doubts if I would every master investing. Whenever I talked to people in the past about investing I would get blank expressions. My knowledge at those times seemed many times more astute but I still was lost in the 'desert of investing'.

This community is what I needed all along. The above may have been luck. I doubt if I would have made the above returns on my own. And I may not do well in the next 5 months. Time will tell. The hope is that by learning how others trade, the stocks to research and the opinions of others may make me the better investor for it. My only complaint is the amount of work. No wonder people put their money with an advisor.

The ability to put things out there and get feedback is so great. Whether it is feedback to what I blog or the feedback on Bill's work or the interaction between others is so valuable. This space on the internet is so very different from the ho-hum I have seen. I have been on the internet since almost the beginning and have witnessed a general decline and the self-promotion that goes with it. Having this "Free" resource has me spinning at times. And it is the other resources out there that members here refer to that unearth the valuable from the mundane. Each day I feel that you are cheering me on in this Marathon race.

The above is posted to say thanks to this community and hope that participation continues from the excellent communicators out there.

A couple of weeks ago I did feel things here were getting to the level of the banter that girls and boys have in the schoolyard. I almost left. Just as the markets can 'change on a dime' the commentary has changed to the discourse of ladies and gentlemen. We are all the better for it. Thank you.

And I do think as Bill says, I am speaking for the 100 others out there that don't have the time to comment.

Bill Cara: [Trust me; for every one of you who comment -- even infrequently -- there are 100+ who do not have the time or inclination or communication skills (or whatever) to join the discourse.]

Have a great weekend.[010]
----
This is a repost to a poorly formatted post of August 11, 2007 - 12:01pm
I hope to heck this works. Preview sucks.

"Citigroup Inc. has reportedly lost more than $700 million in credit business in recent weeks..."

http://tinyurl.com/2z7zpw

"While there was a good bit of liquidity injected, I do not believe that we've seen all of the dead bodies yet--we can merely smell them. The FED's and their compatriots' injection of liquidity was akin to spraying Glade air freshener in a mortuary where the AC has blown due to a circuit overload."

leisa, your visual metaphors always make me smile...do you recall "the Wolf" in Pulp Fiction...there must exist highly-paid specialists in Tyvek suits able to deodorize the site with ozone generators, coat everything with a Thermo-55 disinfectant/insecticide defogger, and remove the dead bodies along with the floorboards...someone always cleans up, and i'm sure they're good at what they do...;)

of course, the recession of 2008 will not be their problem..

renewed enforcement of "no-match" Social Security notices targets employers, and will affect an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants...takes effect in 30 days, and expected to hit the California agricultural industry hardest...

http://tinyurl.com/3bx3ot

When Genius Failed...(about LTCM) ...reading the chapter on the August 1998 when they accumulated very large losses, sounds hauntingly like this August.

Bill,

You were right when you said that the party would end when the HB&B's were done with their LBO's. You were also right about the sub prime problem being bigger than they said it would be. I highly agree that earnings are still coming in at record levels especially when you compare the earnings yields to the 10yr bond, the market is undervalued. In my opinion, the bull market ends when earnings expectations can no longer be met.

2nd:

No, I am not referring to ‘wash sale’. I’m retired and the accounts are either not taxed when withdrawing, in the case of the Roth, or at a steady rate regardless of my trading decisions from the IRA Rollover.

To wait for the ‘Not a broken company’ stock to recover, and without taking losses, I purchased additional shares of the declining equity in the Roth account and sold it when it reached the ASP (average share price) of the Rollover account on the rebound.

Thus, I’ve made early $ on a Cara 100 pick and if so desire can either sell the Rollover now without a loss or bet that Bill’s analysis is correct and hold for more profits down stream.

Bill,,,I have been looking at the action in the $USD(daily chart) and it appears as though it's trying to put in a double bottom short term, which if completed(closes above 81.09) would portend a target of 82.++.

My thought is this,,,If/when the Democrats win the presidential election in 2008, the end of the Iraq war/occupation will be in sight.

Won't this be a boost for the dollar and if so, the dollar should rise well in anticipation.

There is only a bit over 4 months left in 2007 and I'm thinking that gold, while still has a nice advance left in it, may soon start to get " Long in the Tooth". JMHO

Dab

Bill,,,,Does it make sense to post the $NASI/$NYSI,,,(nasdaq/nyse summation indexes).

I personally think it gives a very good overbought/sold indicator.

TIA,
Dab

I think the banks will grow accustomed to the "temporary" injection of liquidity and will keep expecting more... or another way of stating that is that I think that the Fed has basically set themselves up for having to cut the rate sometime this year. But the bottom line is similar to Bill's assessment, and that's that the Fed will do whatever it has to do to prevent from falling into the abyss. Stocks will no doubt benefit in the short term, though the timing of how exactly it plays out I feel is somewhat in question. If they were to cut rates, a short term trader will not be able to buy after the announcemnet/blastoff. In fact, people with a longer term time horizon should look to take some off during this period. It's all about managing risk and knowing your time horizon.

I had a friend over yesterday at my daughters birthday party and he works in the home mortgage business here in San Diego. I said that business has dried up in the past two weeks because his company is unable to package the loans that they want to create and sell in the secondary market. Wall street isn't buying them at this time. He stated that that is why a doctor that I am working for is having problems getting his home mortgage loan even with excellent documents.

re mortgage loans: wife and i recently backed out of a project we put a deposit on at the recommendation of family contacts on her side. it's a residential development in the mid-west scheduled to break ground in winter 2008, so of course the pre-construction pricing was attractive. however, by the time the homes are completed in late summer/early fall of next year, the interest rate(s) we used to crunch the numbers no longer look certain. we feel better passing on what might have been a killer deal last year, but now looks more like an albatross.

I think aligning ones actions with the current panic and fighting the Fed would be a big mistake. Energy stocks are getting sold off in favor of cash? There is an infinite supply of cash, and finite energy resources. The US has already proven that it is willing to conjure up the faintest excuses to raid an oil rich country under the leadership of an ex-crack head Jesus freak. It now looks like the next step will be for the US to underwrite the housing bubble by bailing out the institutions who bought the loans. None of this makes sense to rational view of the market and the economy because the rational view has an irrational putative view of the human as being rational. Let's go nuts and buy banking stocks next week.

agree that fighting the fed is a losing proposition...we'll find out soon how far they're willing to go..

!

Sorry, I cant watch this stuff unfold without saying my peace. Granted Bill has helped many here see the technical side of things [like gambler junkies learning about how to count cards?] but Bill, you are not above reproach, and will probably censor this soon. But I'll at least feel good that I tried.

You are ALL OVER THE MAP.
Dow down 1,000 2 days ago:
Should the selling waves in global equity markets persist today, which appears certain; this will be a weekend where the G-20 central banks will have to cook up a plan to stave that single day -1000 point loss on the Dow I previously argued was likely (if, as and when the broad market trend reverses).

No, no, Dow back to 14,000! A day later?

Gold 750 by X...nope by X...nope maybe by X..

KRY , once it gets over 5, blue skies, KRY, "I am not sure about it now", how many have lost $$ on KRY, HOV, GFI, ...

Last summer when Dow at 11k, you called for Dow 8800..! It went to 14k!

Your prognostications are DANGEROUS. You should be alot more RESPONSIBLE if you are to try to help "the little guy". I imagine there are people who are even more confused wile you rodeo their MACRO expectations.

Strangely, you seem more and more like Cramer. Actually, you are WORSE, at least Cramer when he brags, he also ADMITS errors. That is honorable.

You, Bill, you only BRAG about winners and change your mind about the market more than a woman does, looking at shoes.

!

Let me add one more thing.

A colleague of mine has gone to cash or short since Dow 13,875, when I believe you called for a melt-up and Gold 750.
He feels Dow 11's is in the cards by October.
Sure it'll whipsaw, but he sticks to his guns and is patient, not a gambler.

I am thinking he is right b/c you are bullish.
Maybe when you get back to calling Dow 8thousand-whatever , the Bull will resume.

.

my initial take on being "all over the map:"

(and i have no problem with your observations, LOLOL...i can see where you're coming form...)

the landscape changes every day in the capital markets, and navigating it requires that you "change your mind" constantly...those who insist on staying the course or who remain "static" in their outlook risk major damage...

it has been pointed out that we're late in the bull market > capital preservation/raising cash is a good idea > the last few plays will require nimble trading...

all great traders make mistakes, most probably >50% of the time...it's knowing how to exit the wrong moves quickly and press your bets on the right moves that will determine your bottom line..

speaking of which, the value of this site lies in listening to/watching how others navigate...i have occasionally made money more or less betting on a suggested reversal in trend, but having learned how to get myself out if it turns out to be wrong, or pressing that bet if it turns out to be right has then "made" the trade for me...

Dear LOLOL... I don't wish to speak for anyone but I believe that Mr. Cara would be the last one to say that what he says about the numbers with regard to any aspect of the future in financial markets are to be written in stone.
I think Bill urges us all to think for ourselves, while giving us his own take on what is happening in the world's financial arena. I have never felt that he was offering anything near to a guarantee.
What he does offer is some of the best insight and discourse that can be found anywhere. That's it. If you are expecting more than that then perhaps you just don't understand what is going on in this forum.
If you feel your esteemed colleague is providing much better insight, perhaps you could ask him to join the discourse here so that we might all be able to judge that for ourselves.

one last thought here also...

it's all in the time horizon...would bet bill does not rule out DJIA 11,000 or lower by October...the market is unpredictable simply because of exogenous factors, and he may be trying to call the whipsaws...in any case, i believe that inside information/machinations and investor psychology often cause the markets to resemble a casino, and during periods of high volatility prefer the gambler's mentality to that of one who "sticks to his guns.."

JMHO..

ALOHA !!

dabonenose ... So far as I can see there has been no real reflection of the financial cost of the War On Terror in any US or global markets, whether its equities or currency. Besides how can you ever really pull out of a "War On Terror"? Like the "War On Drugs" it never ends since there will always be "drugs" and there will always be "terror"! We are at war against "nouns"!!

On DrudgeReport today there is an article on the latest military request to reinstate the draft as well as an article about how the Dems don't see an end to the Iraq War for many years.

VIETNAM WAR EFFECTS ON USDX
From 1969 to 1973 the US military gradually removed troops from Vietnam leaving only "advisors and trainers" by 1973. From 1974 to 1975 the South Vietnamese regime was in charge until the Vietnam War ended on April 30, 1975 when Saigon fell to the Communists. Once the US military left it only took the Communists one year to defeat the South Vietnamese. If you look at a USDX chart from 1968 to 2006 you can see the USDX was at 120 in 1968. All during our troop withdrawl to 1975 the USDX went down to 92, although there were some rallies, overall the USDX had a lower trend and it accelerated lower once the cost of the Vietnam War was monetized, which is why Nixon closed the "gold window" in 1971. The US Dollar, reserve currency, was then thought to be as "good as gold".

What happens during transitions from war time to peace time is the military expends huge amounts of money to conduct warfare which the US government increases taxes and borrows via bonds to pay costs. After a war military equipment is depleated and needs to be rebuilt which also causes government to spend more. The "bill" becomes due and interest on the "bill" increases, which in turn requires more funds either via taxes or more bonds. Add in the loss of "real wealth" productivity during war years and the government needs to spend even more to regain infrastructure during peace time and retool manufacturing from guns to butter! Once the US government starts to "monetize" debt its all over, which may have started. A government has no choice but to monetize debt when tax revenues ebb and there are no "real" buyers of government bonds. It is a vicious cycle since more spending begets more inflation supressing the business cycle and increasing debt. Tax revenues from corporate profit and payroll taxes are reduced. Layoffs are a double whammy since government loses income tax and is burdened further by unemployment and welfare costs. If nobody hires then nobody spends and you get a depression like in the 1930s. Is the US government already monetizing its own debt?

In the long run none of this is positive for the USDX. War simply gets in the way of the pursuit of happiness and real wealth creation!

My guess is that those at the top would try to spin an exit from Iraq as good for the US Dollar, but then would the oil keep flowing if we left? I believe this is about oil and petro-dollars not terror ...

Link to USDX from 1968 to 2006:
http://tinyurl.com/2bojgu

Link to Vietnam War:
http://tinyurl.com/6qa4b

LOLOL:

What brings you to read this blog? What's your own investment style in terms of investment horizon?

re the "war on drugs and the war on terror:" IMO the way we're running them they actually come close to being wars on "nouns." the real key to winning either lies within...if we spent that kind of money paying down debt, building up infrastructure, helping our neighbors, and educating our children, i think we would then win those other wars in the process without firing a shot...

Conor's Weekly Roundup is up at my site:

Trust me, I'm from the Gubmint, and I'm here to help.

i've had good experiences with people who say "trust me," but my opinion changes when they add "i'm here to help," and doesn't get any better when they mispronounce the name of their employer (lol)...

Noodle: Come out, come out, wherever you are.

Bill mentions the global 100 and the usa 100. Can someone help clarify where I can find these two lists? I'm only aware of the "cara 100" which looks to be international in mix.

ps..fwiw... I get blocked if I try to leave a link, or if i remove the link, then blocked for posting too often.

jasper-click on the Cara100 link at the top, and you'll find both the Global100 and USA100 in the drop down box...

2nd ave...yes, i did that, same list for both drop downs..i just assumed that Bill had not yet constructed additional list beyond his global one, ditto with micro cap 100 et.
ps...and thanks for your supportive words, lately, I am wound a little tight.

Jasper,,,I get the same on all the drop down lists. They all revert back to Cara 100.

Dab

Bill, Thanks for the clarification and update.

Next week is going to be interesting....

Monday August 13 is the Retail sales report.

Tuesday August 14 is the Producers Price Index.

Wednesday August 15 is the CONSUMER price index.

Thursday August 16 is the New Housing Starts.

The Fed is already working overtime this weekend trying to keep the peoples retirement money in the markets so they have free access to it at any given time.
Now they have to distort and twist and spin the economic data report #'s 4 days next week.

Great response, Bill. To anyone with LOLOL's mindset, keep in mind that you get much more than you "pay for" at this site, and that Bill's well-reasoned case for whatever "call" he makes is what I choose to keep coming here for--to learn, from him AND everyone else, not blindly follow his every prediction. If you're looking for something akin to a radio talk show whose flock of followers need to be told what to think, go elsewhere.

Booyah!

"There's no evidence of subprime-related problems in Asia yet. As far as stock markets are concerned, valuations in Europe and the United States are at 15-year lows, definitely not stretched, while the fundamentals are sound, particularly in Asia," HSBC's Prior-Wandesforde said."
...
"Asia's central banks took further steps on Monday to calm markets roiled by fears over a credit squeeze, with the Bank of Japan injecting $5.1 billion (2.5 billion pounds) into the banking system and others pledging to follow suit if needed."
...
"Over the weekend, Deutsche Postbank (Xetra: 800100 - news) , Germany's biggest retail bank, was the latest big financial institution drawn into the subprime morass when it unveiled 600 million euros ($822 million) in exposure to two investment vehicles run by hard-hit German bank IKB "

http://tinyurl.com/37754c

Still nothing to see here! Move along! :)

I've just started Roger Lowenstein's book, Origins of the Crash, The Great Bubble and It's Undoing. It really opens your eyes about how bad debt follows more bad debt, and how things like the current situation will continue until they break.

With Blackstone's raising of capital, is it possible that prices are being "shocked" in order to turn companies private at a discount?

Any experts on CDO's & Credit Default Swaps out there? What happens when these mortgage companies default?

"Credit-default swaps tied to $10 million of bonds sold by Bear Stearns, the second-largest underwriter of mortgage bonds, were quoted as high as $145,000 yesterday, from $30,000 at the start of June, indicating growing investor concerns. The swaps traded today at $85,000, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group in New York.

The contracts, financial instruments based on bonds and used to speculate on the chances of default, imply a rating of Ba1, one level below investment grade and six lower than Bear Stearns' A1 ranking, according to New York-based Moody's. "

http://tinyurl.com/23h826

LEND down 48% ( $4.66 ) in Friday after-hours trading.

Like others, I trust that no one is relying on Bill's calls to make investment decisions. Bill is not an advisor to his readers. He hosts a BLOG. Plain and simple. You make your own trades and you live with them. If Bill chooses to make calls and give his reasoning, people can take it or leave it. If a reader has trouble with Bill pointing out his correct ones and not directly "fessing up" to his incorrect ones, as LOLOL seems to do, well, he/she can decide whether that outweighs the value given here: the investing methodologies, tools and processes. Pretty simple.

I will agree with LOLOL that it IS dangerous to make calls. It is dangerous in the sense that people DO have a tendency to be influenced by others. I really find it difficult to write some of what I do sometimes. I try like hell to avoid it. But occasionally I have come in here waving my arms and shouting. So far I have been very lucky and for that I am relieved.

Good luck and good trading.