Bill Cara: Saturday Commentary & Community Chat, Aug. 4, 2007, 10:19AM ET

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August 4, 2007

Saturday Commentary & Community Chat, Aug. 4, 2007, 10:19AM ET

Yesterday was the start of a new format for Commentary & Chat. Apparently you liked it because at last count there were 165 comments! One day, with your help, we’ll get to 1,000.

For this discourse part of the blog, I will eliminate high bandwidth demanding graphics in order to speed response times. Each day, this will be the only place for commentary, including mine.

Simple rules:

If you are going to use long links, which happen to distort the formats of some browsers, please use TinyURL or alternative. If you see someone adding a link that throws your page out of kilter, speak up. If you don’t tell, they won’t know.

When referring to other blogger’s work, premium newsletters, or the public/premium mainstream media, please do not copy and paste unless you keep it to 300 words only, and you use it, with accreditation, to illustrate a point you are making.

Since we tend to use language/rhetoric in our web communications that is offensive to some people, understand that the Cara Community extends to 140 countries. There are people of every race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, marital status, national origin, ancestry, familial status, age and handicap/disability who are members. So, please act accordingly, and if you believe there is discrimination shown by anybody here, please send me an e-mail and I will follow up. If you think an incident is so blatant, then speak up.

I ask your indulgence here, please don’t proselytize, taunt or become openly hostile to others in the Community. Lack of respect for others simply shows others that you lack self-respect.

That’s it. Pretty simple.

For Saturday’s Commentary & Chat, I am going to publish some graphics. These are the fourteen tables of the Week In Review, which will give the few of us who are around on Saturdays something to chat about.

By the way, if there are ticker symbols you would like me to replace in these tables, please discuss it here, and I will comply with the group wishes.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

XLU 37.95 -1.30 -3.31% 1.07% -6.76% -4.79% 3.07% -10.01% 2.29% 11.45%

XLP 26.65 -0.20 -0.74% 0.79% -2.74% -2.31% 1.41% -2.74% -0.56% 7.76%

XLI 39.15 -0.88 -2.20% 0.26% -4.28% -1.63% 11.13% 3.19% 8.18% 21.77%

IYH 67.15 -0.86 -1.26% 0.16% -3.76% -4.67% 1.04% -6.66% -2.53% 6.62%

XLB 38.42 -1.07 -2.71% -1.26% -10.23% -7.64% 11.01% -1.61% 4.89% 22.63%

IYZ 32.81 -0.97 -2.87% -1.32% -5.50% -5.39% 10.62% 0.61% 6.39% 24.94%

SMH 37.09 -0.82 -2.16% -1.70% -7.00% -5.46% 10.49% 0.05% 8.07% 18.27%

XLY 36.37 -1.00 -2.68% -1.81% -7.83% -9.46% -5.58% -7.71% -8.41% 12.11%

XLE 66.12 -2.42 -3.53% -3.47% -10.65% -7.58% 16.86% 2.19% 12.78% 13.36%

XLF 32.06 -1.57 -4.67% -3.87% -9.56% -12.60% -13.16% -14.71% -14.26% -3.38%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ECA 61.46 -1.36 -2.16% 1.64% -3.52% -1.70% 35.55% 11.87% 27.54% 14.47%

CEO 113.53 -3.16 -2.71% 0.59% -7.55% -5.30% 20.43% 27.73% 33.66% 31.63%

SU 89.67 -1.83 -2.00% 0.57% -6.16% -1.82% 21.32% 9.34% 21.21% 8.22%

STO 28.75 -0.69 -2.34% 0.38% -10.41% -11.48% 11.91% -1.64% 6.96% -3.07%

PBR 61.77 -3.43 -5.26% -2.79% -11.59% -6.07% 23.96% 20.34% 24.21% 30.81%

IMO 44.49 -1.39 -3.03% -3.70% -9.61% -6.67% 24.76% 14.96% 26.11% 17.61%

TOT 73.86 -2.92 -3.80% -4.02% -10.11% -12.38% 4.07% -2.11% 7.28% 11.45%

XOM 82.08 -3.10 -3.64% -4.10% -10.72% -5.07% 10.75% 1.74% 8.66% 20.05%

CVX 81.02 -2.87 -3.42% -4.91% -12.05% -7.60% 14.16% 1.84% 9.43% 23.69%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

MT 63.09 -1.69 -2.61% 4.02% -3.90% -2.67% 54.63% 15.74% 32.65% 85.01%

GGB 24.76 -1.00 -3.88% -0.04% -10.74% -8.67% 50.79% 19.33% 45.05% 54.65%

RIO 46.76 -2.34 -4.77% -0.81% -8.26% -2.64% 62.25% 9.33% 37.45% 97.05%

NUE 51.38 0.61 1.20% -0.83% -15.16% -15.77% -5.72% -21.56% -20.75% -2.80%

BHP 60.73 -2.20 -3.50% -0.99% -9.40% -6.97% 56.24% 21.39% 47.47% 43.43%

PKX 136.04 -3.15 -2.26% -1.48% -7.47% 2.30% 71.27% 26.67% 48.68% 121.74%

RTP 266.46 -9.64 -3.49% -1.81% -14.24% -17.30% 30.55% 5.05% 25.25% 25.99%

TS 46.64 -0.74 -1.56% -2.24% -5.22% -8.55% -3.87% -1.25% -0.91% 15.47%

TCK 42.21 -1.87 -4.24% -3.12% -15.24% -5.87% -39.05% -47.40% -40.86% -40.59%

AA 36.18 -1.70 -4.49% -3.29% -16.02% -13.15% 23.35% 3.19% 11.53% 22.23%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

EBAY 33.32 0.28 0.85% 2.30% -0.63% -0.21% 10.44% -3.76% 2.68% 38.43%

NKE 56.50 -0.45 -0.79% 1.91% -3.45% -5.31% 15.71% 6.04% 12.77% 44.58%

DIS 33.90 -0.46 -1.34% 0.47% -1.28% -1.71% -0.88% -5.02% -3.64% 12.85%

TM 118.90 0.31 0.26% -1.31% -3.26% -5.81% -12.12% -1.25% -9.42% 11.15%

CCL 43.61 -1.29 -2.87% -1.60% -6.94% -9.43% -14.41% -9.43% -15.76% 13.83%

SBUX 26.31 -0.61 -2.27% -2.30% -5.02% -0.90% -25.36% -16.79% -23.23% -14.13%

BC 27.26 -0.89 -3.16% -2.57% -10.09% -16.84% -14.60% -17.24% -21.21% -9.68%

JCP 65.73 -3.08 -4.48% -4.32% -12.30% -9.40% -15.80% -17.00% -21.47% 2.38%

WHR 97.77 -3.07 -3.04% -4.74% -11.46% -14.18% 15.49% -13.34% 5.87% 23.17%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

WFMI 40.34 -0.11 -0.27% 12.06% 2.59% 5.99% -11.30% -10.97% -9.69% -20.86%

MO 66.60 -0.54 -0.80% 2.19% -4.58% -6.98% 2.59% -4.54% 2.52% 10.69%

KO 53.28 -0.38 -0.71% 1.91% 0.13% 1.29% 9.67% 0.70% 10.45% 21.04%

PEP 66.47 -0.34 -0.51% 1.23% 2.78% 0.38% 5.98% -1.25% 2.20% 5.78%

DEO 81.46 -0.37 -0.45% 0.89% -4.37% -2.00% 2.43% -4.31% 2.91% 15.68%

BUD 48.95 -0.75 -1.51% 0.62% -1.37% -5.19% -0.55% -2.68% -4.71% 2.56%

PG 62.88 -0.42 -0.66% 0.10% 1.17% 2.28% -2.57% 1.42% -3.76% 5.77%

WMT 45.52 -1.21 -2.59% -0.91% -5.29% -5.93% -4.27% -5.87% -5.32% 1.77%

WAG 44.09 -0.72 -1.61% -1.03% -3.08% -0.72% -4.30% -1.03% -2.71% -8.83%

ABV 65.14 -2.74 -4.04% -7.52% -13.25% -11.01% 32.67% 4.68% 24.69% 58.49%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

GSK 51.01 -0.85 -1.64% 2.78% -3.10% -1.53% -5.20% -11.19% -8.60% -5.34%

AET 49.31 -1.40 -2.76% 1.36% -0.72% -3.47% 15.00% 2.47% 15.97% 51.63%

JNJ 60.55 -0.48 -0.79% 1.31% -2.01% -2.54% -8.81% -5.86% -9.06% -4.01%

NVS 53.49 -0.24 -0.45% 0.58% -2.73% -3.33% -8.00% -7.82% -8.66% -3.74%

BMET 45.45 -0.05 -0.11% -0.15% -0.04% -0.72% 9.60% 4.77% 7.60% 33.40%

PFE 23.51 -0.34 -1.43% -1.18% -5.58% -9.30% -10.57% -12.50% -12.28% -7.84%

BMY 28.00 -0.62 -2.17% -2.23% -11.22% -11.25% 6.14% -4.57% -2.23% 17.70%

DNA 73.42 -0.87 -1.17% -2.72% -2.30% -2.24% -10.24% -9.97% -16.00% -8.62%

UNH 47.50 -0.86 -1.78% -3.32% -7.44% -10.41% -9.64% -10.70% -10.22% -0.57%

AMGN 50.90 -0.54 -1.05% -8.49% -9.40% -7.15% -25.58% -20.36% -26.71% -28.23%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

HBC 91.42 -1.83 -1.96% 2.78% -0.81% -1.60% -1.67% -3.12% -1.18% 0.69%

CS 65.66 -1.07 -1.60% 2.43% -6.16% -9.93% -6.35% -15.36% -7.83% 0.00%

DB 134.25 -3.96 -2.87% 1.21% -6.15% -9.31% -0.81% -13.14% -4.02% 19.87%

UBS 54.08 -1.04 -1.89% -0.59% -6.97% -11.50% -11.91% -14.74% -14.93% -0.44%

JPM 43.65 -0.94 -2.11% -1.31% -8.22% -10.86% -9.19% -17.17% -14.29% -4.40%

C 45.72 -1.52 -3.22% -2.66% -9.88% -11.57% -17.25% -15.25% -16.36% -5.67%

MS 60.62 -3.26 -5.10% -5.83% -10.29% -17.06% -25.73% -28.92% -27.87% -10.59%

GS 179.68 -7.78 -4.15% -6.73% -12.75% -19.66% -10.48% -18.90% -15.81% 18.13%

MER 70.05 -2.50 -3.45% -6.92% -12.48% -17.28% -25.17% -24.09% -26.27% -2.98%

LEH 55.78 -4.67 -7.73% -13.14% -18.32% -25.43% -29.06% -26.27% -34.99% -15.70%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

CSCO 29.46 -0.67 -2.22% 1.69% -0.44% 3.48% 6.20% 6.35% 8.59% 67.67%

CTSH 82.85 -1.15 -1.37% 1.61% -3.48% 5.02% 6.55% -1.52% -3.47% 17.84%

INTC 23.91 -0.39 -1.60% 1.57% -2.61% -3.12% 17.49% 9.98% 12.62% 37.73%

SAP 53.69 -1.36 -2.47% 1.55% -2.77% 6.23% 0.92% 12.70% 16.39% 19.13%

ORCL 19.66 -0.43 -2.14% 0.20% -4.61% -3.63% 12.28% 3.36% 12.86% 33.11%

QCOM 40.77 -1.27 -3.02% -2.16% -5.19% -6.45% 8.84% -7.93% 9.63% 16.95%

SNDK 53.43 0.66 1.25% -2.55% -6.20% 8.60% 28.07% 22.04% 30.96% 13.10%

ADBE 38.75 -0.77 -1.95% -4.06% -6.94% -5.53% -2.93% -5.95% -0.56% 19.12%

INFY 47.96 -1.52 -3.07% -5.05% -10.71% -8.80% -14.08% -10.76% -18.63% 13.46%

ADSK 40.47 -1.23 -2.95% -6.51% -9.14% -10.46% -0.22% -2.55% -8.62% 19.95%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 4.74 4.78 4.83 4.73

6 Month 4.76 4.77 4.84 4.76

2 Year 4.60 4.51 4.72 4.85

3 Year 4.58 4.51 4.72 4.85

5 Year 4.64 4.56 4.77 4.89

10 Year 4.79 4.74 4.90 4.99

30 Year 4.92 4.90 5.02 5.09

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.64 3.64 3.69 3.76

2yr AAA 3.65 3.64 3.70 3.74

2yr A 3.65 3.65 3.67 3.72

5yr AAA 3.70 3.70 3.78 3.81

5yr AA 3.77 3.80 3.81 3.90

5yr A 4.03 4.04 4.12 4.00

10yr AAA 3.93 3.94 3.99 4.02

10yr AA 3.99 3.99 4.02 4.07

10yr A 3.98 3.99 4.10 4.27

20yr AAA 4.56 4.57 4.55 4.62

20yr AA 4.44 4.44 4.47 4.49

20yr A 4.41 4.19 4.17 4.66

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 5.15 5.05 5.20 5.23

2yr A 5.22 5.13 5.25 5.31

5yr AAA 5.33 5.24 5.37 5.43

5yr AA 5.49 5.41 5.54 5.51

5yr A 5.60 5.48 5.71 5.59

10yr AAA 5.88 5.86 6.02 5.79

10yr AA 5.79 5.71 5.93 5.83

10yr A 6.00 5.94 6.00 5.93

20yr AAA 6.08 6.04 6.12 6.17

20yr AA 6.19 6.15 6.22 6.16

20yr A 6.22 6.18 6.26 6.31

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

TLT 87.93 0.58 0.66% 0.74% 2.40% 5.33% -1.28% -0.35% 0.84% 2.48%

IEF 82.64 0.49 0.60% 0.21% 1.57% 3.27% -0.05% -0.16% 1.01% 1.85%

AGG 98.71 0.43 0.44% -0.02% 0.32% 1.23% -1.20% -1.23% -0.72% 0.43%

TIP 100.30 0.31 0.31% -0.11% 0.92% 2.55% 1.08% -0.38% 1.44% 0.00%

SHY 80.44 0.21 0.26% -0.14% 0.31% 0.85% 0.50% 0.46% 0.79% 0.94%

FRE 55.70 -0.91 -1.61% -3.43% -7.17% -8.46% -17.96% -16.48% -15.54% -3.20%

FNM 56.63 -2.33 -3.95% -4.65% -11.79% -14.83% -5.40% -7.32% -0.75% 19.37%

CFC 25.00 -1.77 -6.61% -16.25% -27.09% -33.05% -40.63% -33.74% -44.48% -32.52%

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

AEM 42.88 0.60 1.42% 4.13% -4.96% 5.20% 10.17% 18.95% 7.60% 16.97%

ABX 33.21 0.11 0.33% 3.85% -3.74% 8.11% 11.33% 9.50% 10.77% 4.34%

BVN 39.43 -0.61 -1.52% 1.62% -9.34% -2.21% 42.81% 15.94% 34.34% 34.57%

NEM 40.90 -0.83 -1.99% 0.17% -4.88% -2.11% -7.47% -2.39% -8.89% -21.93%

MDG 27.00 0.25 0.93% -1.10% -11.82% -5.46% 2.70% 3.97% -6.64% -2.56%

GG 24.72 -0.29 -1.16% -1.12% -10.53% -3.70% -9.58% -0.04% -9.18% -18.31%

KGC 12.69 0.09 0.71% -2.08% -10.63% -1.40% 11.12% -9.10% -2.61% 7.91%

AUY 10.65 -0.17 -1.57% -4.05% -15.61% -10.50% -13.63% -25.47% -20.11% -2.20%

GFI 15.59 -0.49 -3.05% -4.59% -13.44% -3.29% -14.95% -14.34% -7.31% -28.26%

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

EWU 24.36 -0.47 -1.89% 1.20% -6.63% -6.20% 3.44% -3.22% 2.27% 13.20%

IEV 112.27 -1.98 -1.73% 1.20% -6.03% -6.04% 6.32% -2.75% 5.02% 20.47%

EWC 29.60 -0.62 -2.05% -0.34% -7.27% -4.02% 19.84% 5.04% 16.86% 22.52%

SPY 143.80 -3.85 -2.61% -0.90% -6.32% -6.00% 1.72% -4.36% -0.70% 11.98%

QQQQ 47.42 -0.92 -1.90% -1.19% -5.25% -2.95% 9.67% 1.78% 7.38% 27.71%

IFN 44.05 -1.60 -3.50% -1.28% -5.33% -3.72% -2.85% 4.88% -3.93% 12.89%

EWJ 14.05 -0.18 -1.26% -1.47% -3.83% -3.96% -1.06% -2.29% -2.50% 3.61%

EWZ 60.90 -3.25 -5.07% -1.57% -10.76% -6.18% 30.41% 11.74% 26.77% 53.36%

FXI 130.16 -5.93 -4.36% -2.61% -5.84% -4.89% 11.82% 18.92% 25.21% 66.13%

TRF 64.38 -1.77 -2.68% -3.33% -11.20% -8.62% -27.30% -8.03% -15.74% -6.76%

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

CAT 78.96 -1.71 -2.12% 3.87% -5.10% 0.19% 29.10% 7.63% 21.01% 8.57%

GM 32.04 -1.35 -4.04% 3.02% -8.25% -12.20% 8.79% 4.40% -2.88% 2.69%

MO 66.60 -0.54 -0.80% 2.19% -4.58% -6.98% 2.59% -4.54% 2.52% 10.69%

HPQ 47.41 -0.82 -1.70% 2.04% -2.33% 3.11% 13.91% 10.69% 12.69% 45.47%

KO 53.28 -0.38 -0.71% 1.91% 0.13% 1.29% 9.67% 0.70% 10.45% 21.04%

VZ 42.75 -0.38 -0.88% 1.79% 1.11% 2.89% 13.04% 4.09% 12.00% 27.65%

INTC 23.91 -0.39 -1.60% 1.57% -2.61% -3.12% 17.49% 9.98% 12.62% 37.73%

JNJ 60.55 -0.48 -0.79% 1.31% -2.01% -2.54% -8.81% -5.86% -9.06% -4.01%

UTX 73.93 -0.83 -1.11% 0.87% -2.76% 1.83% 17.70% 8.83% 8.72% 17.84%

T 39.45 -1.15 -2.83% 0.54% 1.00% -2.98% 12.88% 1.41% 3.49% 27.67%

BA 104.24 -1.69 -1.60% 0.51% 0.37% 5.42% 16.90% 11.07% 15.76% 31.28%

DIS 33.90 -0.46 -1.34% 0.47% -1.28% -1.71% -0.88% -5.02% -3.64% 12.85%

MRK 50.29 -1.35 -2.61% 0.34% 2.59% 1.68% 14.24% -2.44% 12.43% 20.92%

PG 62.88 -0.42 -0.66% 0.10% 1.17% 2.28% -2.57% 1.42% -3.76% 5.77%

MCD 48.52 -0.47 -0.96% -0.49% -6.85% -5.66% 10.60% -2.79% 8.94% 35.38%

HON 58.18 -0.87 -1.47% -0.73% -4.56% -1.52% 29.00% 3.89% 26.04% 51.04%

WMT 45.52 -1.21 -2.59% -0.91% -5.29% -5.93% -4.27% -5.87% -5.32% 1.77%

DD 46.35 -0.79 -1.68% -1.00% -11.92% -10.81% -5.49% -8.90% -7.76% 16.34%

PFE 23.51 -0.34 -1.43% -1.18% -5.58% -9.30% -10.57% -12.50% -12.28% -7.84%

JPM 43.65 -0.94 -2.11% -1.31% -8.22% -10.86% -9.19% -17.17% -14.29% -4.40%

MSFT 28.96 -0.56 -1.90% -1.46% -7.06% -3.37% -3.01% -6.49% -4.07% 19.57%

HD 36.19 -1.63 -4.31% -1.52% -8.12% -10.20% -11.88% -7.35% -11.36% 4.69%

AXP 57.49 -3.42 -5.61% -1.81% -10.88% -6.54% -4.75% -9.41% -1.15% 10.28%

GE 38.06 -0.97 -2.49% -1.88% -5.13% -1.09% 0.24% 1.93% 4.94% 16.28%

C 45.72 -1.52 -3.22% -2.66% -9.88% -11.57% -17.25% -15.25% -16.36% -5.67%

MMM 87.56 -1.56 -1.75% -2.77% -2.94% -0.62% 11.88% 4.15% 18.53% 26.39%

IBM 111.89 -1.34 -1.18% -3.23% -2.54% 2.62% 15.03% 8.84% 12.83% 46.59%

AA 36.18 -1.70 -4.49% -3.29% -16.02% -13.15% 23.35% 3.19% 11.53% 22.23%

XOM 82.08 -3.10 -3.64% -4.10% -10.72% -5.07% 10.75% 1.74% 8.66% 20.05%

AIG 61.64 -2.17 -3.40% -5.69% -10.72% -12.04% -14.57% -12.75% -10.76% 2.78%

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 4, 2007 10:19:01 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary

Discourse

All-

Bill appears to be up and running now. Time for me to go back to my "job"! Thanks to all who listened and wrote.

Namkcots, apologies my friend. I was just trying to "draw you out". ;) Keep skinnin' it. Channel is always open. Peter, don't take anything I said as a criticism of your trading abilities. If Bill says you are a stockpicker, that's good enough for me.

With a yellow pail and a green plastic shovel in my hands, and two little ones skipping ahead of me, I am now out the door. We can dig to China yet today!

Good luck and good trading all.

Posted by: MarkM at August 4, 2007 10:56 AM [link]

Sheesh, what a dreadful end to the week. I don't know about others, but it's been a real struggle keeping my portfolio positioned. Like trying to keep my balance on an open deck of a boat being tossed violently by huge waves, back and forth, and with no land in sight.

Miners and the PM's have been under extreme pressure recently. But will it hold, particularly given the problem the dollar has holding its value?

And what about Cramer's rant? Is there some bizarre connection here that has to do with a vain attempt to prop the dollar in order to justify a rate cut sooner rather than later? Are that many bond and hedge fund traders getting squeezed that they are now, in turn, squeezing Paulson and Bernanke?

For those of you following the COT, see the Aug. 3 article from Dan Norcini on Jim Sinclair's site about the shifting mood of commercials and speculators.

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

[be sure to check out Norcini's COT chart]

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro" - Hunter S. Thompson

Posted by: number2son at August 4, 2007 10:58 AM [link]

Good day all!
Well Cap'N Bill was right, the talkin' Noggins have been all over the place flapping their yappers about how we suckers should be buying seats on the Titanic. Amazing.

A quick look at Twiggs weekend missive leaves us at the edge looking down to 12800/12000 DOW and 1375 S&P with money flow really suffering.

What the heck? I just saw Ben Stein telling people to buy variable annuities and every other Fox Noggin' says "You can't time the market".

What a load! If you can't time it, what was I doing selling last week and the week before? (I got a little guff for it here) but my mistake was not selling at the start but taking the chance to nibble on the Thursday dip, which I then sold at a small loss. I was a little too aggressive.

Ah, there it is Bill!!! Steve Forbes (Deve Dorbs on Fox) says "we're climbing the wall of worry".
We knew it was coming, didn't we? (wink).

This is a great time for opportunity. We should make a good list of shorts and Cara 100 globally exposed dividend/income paying blue chips in the AZ and wait for the market to show us where it's going. Personally, my short list (which Cramer helped me compile) is going to be closer on Monday than my long list with the exception of PM's and miners, the only co's besides small positions in P&G, SBUX and PGH that I'm holding for the long haul. Small enough to not lose big, but unfortunately, not win big either. I'm making more on shorts this week than anything for which I'd like to thank Bill.

When I got here in January I was a typical long only retail "investor" and wasn't comfortable shorting. with all the help here and on the site that has changed and I'm starting to really like the dark side! Next thing to get my head around is options.
Now I feel I can at least defend myself by seeing both sides of the trade and taking the winning side up or down. Thank You Cap'N!

I'm looking forward to hearing what everyone else is thinking for next week.

Posted by: Craig at August 4, 2007 11:24 AM [link]

Number2Son,
Wouldn't a fed rate cut weaken the USD not support it? If I'm right a rate cut increases the money supply and re-inflates the economic bubble and kicks the can down the road, but it would (should) strengthen PM's and miners.

Posted by: Craig at August 4, 2007 11:30 AM [link]

Craig, you're absolutely right. My speculation was that we've seen an attempt to prop up the dollar ahead of a rate cut to make it look more palatable.

After the carnage late Friday in the financial sector, it's not hard to imagine that the Fed is under intense pressure to throw out a life preserver to the financial markets, even if it is, in fact, an anchor.

Posted by: number2son at August 4, 2007 11:41 AM [link]

It sure depends on which Ben shows up! Will it be Gentle Ben the bear or Ben Franklin the printer?

This should be interesting. This will be inflation VS the Banking/financial system.
This is where all those fed statistical lies come home to roost. Ben knows inflation is higher than the core so it makes this decision doubly tough. What will he do? Will he be Greenspan or Volker?

As Kaimu would point out, it's the fiat money system that is broken and it's that very system that gets us (Ben) in this predicament.

My bet is Ben tries to jawbone it first so we get perhaps a short term bounce and then further pressure.

Posted by: Craig at August 4, 2007 12:00 PM [link]

On a related note, the firing of BSC's Warren Spector is extremely significant.

http://tinyurl.com/2opz2v

I'm going to wear a helmet during trading hours next week.

Posted by: number2son at August 4, 2007 12:27 PM [link]

The stock market is all about spin. Shares not doing well, announce a share-back. Touchy, feely and there is no law that says you have to (buy back shares). Maybe if we buy back we can slow the plunge of our stock. Sure, use the shareholder equity to make the 'brass' look good. Why not just give the shareholders the money and let them decide to buy back the shares.

It may be summer and the hot air you are noticing is not the weather. Let's watch the spin this week. Pull out the Play Book and make the small investor buy the Big Boys' story. "We have no exposure to the ....." or "minimal exposure to high-yield debt or 'junk bonds,'". I wonder what is considered minimal. Does high yield mean we are making money - sounds good. "The rating agency is not fair. They don't know what they are speaking of...” "lack of vulnerability to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis" - interesting they used the word crisis for the other guys - that is not in the playbook.

How is this for spin:

[===="The latest troubling U.S. economic signals, spreading housing woes, the worsening credit squeeze and more turmoil in the markets were enough to spur talk of the dreaded “R” word this week."====] Nice to see we are spared the "R" word. The Play Book doesn't allow this word yet. Besides, there have been the usual: "P/E multiples are not overvalued", and "...do not yet show we are in trouble". Hmmm, I thought P/E is what happened yesterday, old news for me. And let's boost earnings estimates for the next year and show even lower P/E multiples. HBB can always revise earnings lower later and then blame the companies for not giving them guidance.

[====“We believe that the S&P 500 is now pricing [in] a U.S. recession starting in late 2007 lasting through most of 2008,” UBS's chief equity strategist David Bianco said in a research note on Wednesday. Using a calculation based on price-earnings multiples and interest rates, Mr. Bianco said the market is expecting the recession to cut S&P 500 earnings per share by about 10 per cent. But he hastened to add that he doesn't consider such an outcome likely, which is understandable. It's not good for business if too many clients cash out of the markets and hunker down to wait out coming economic storms.

But as if on cue, the S&P proceeded yesterday to post its worst single-day percentage decline since the Shanghai surprise that triggered a global stock selloff on Feb. 27.====] Saturday Globe and Mail

No wonder I have "NO CLUE" were this market is heading.

Bill has made me a cynic with 'Entertainment TV' , 'HBB' and the 'press/journalists'. Hit the Off button on these guys.

This coming week and the month of August will certainly be interesting to watch. We'll need to keep our seatbelts on to minimize pain and suffering. Be close to the sell button if you are a short-term trader. Day-traders will have the best of times this month. I will stay long the gold miners and gold (sell button ready). But hedged with a short on the index (Canadian). I don't know where interest rates will go in the USA. Up or down are not choices I would make. Just leaving them be will build up more worries for both the Bulls and Bears. In Canada I think we are prepared for higher rates as they are lower than in the USA.

When I have looked at the boats in the harbour, my thoughts have been that this would be the ideal way to retire (even for part of the year). I am not a boater. Owing a canoe does not qualify me. My family lived as far from the water as possible. I wonder how many stock traders do it from their boat(s)? That would be paradise for me. I fondly remember my only visit to New York City in July of 2000 and seeing these huge private boats/ships at Battery Park. My jaw dropped seeing those families on these monster floating homes. That is the way to live. If someone yelled to come over and visit, I would have been there in a flash.

To those in Canada, enjoy the long-weekend.

004 - Posted for entertainment value only.

Posted by: BernardF at August 4, 2007 12:38 PM [link]

Article 133 for James Cramer. Cue video, the prosecution rests.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/08/article-133-for-james-cramer.html

Posted by: Ron at August 4, 2007 1:07 PM [link]

I am thinking that with the recent moves in the Yen and the short term correction in gold that the value of gold in the various currencies will see some adjustment as they come in line.

Posted by: FranSix at August 4, 2007 1:23 PM [link]

Regarding small cap PMs: In my portfolio of small cap PM stocks, the trading volume has completely dried up the past two weeks and the prices have sunk. It's a trading universe of little grunts like me. Most of the players seem to have gone home. These stocks move up or down 5% with a $10,000 buy or sell in this volume. It's all about speculation. Sentiment and momentum reign. We worship POG. Long VAL,CNU,EVR,IPR,GZZ,WHY.

Posted by: Fred at August 4, 2007 1:45 PM [link]

I think Bill got it right the first time-the correction starts in August...

Would be hard to imagine Shanghai going much higher on its own...the spin that China can power ahead on its own merits may hold water, someday..a decade or two down the road.

I'm a buyer of gold bullion at this point...just think it's a core holding if the financial sector unwinds (to be fair, the country as a whole will need to admit to being credit junkies and start the road to recovery)..certain chapters of Panzner's book worth another look...

Wish I had access to daily/weekly perfomance of Homestake Mining during the '29 Crash..probably available somewhere on the Web. Plan to look up performance of miners over 1973-80 as well. Need to get a better handle on how miners perform (they obviously are not a perfect proxy for gold) before jumping back into GDX...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at August 4, 2007 2:10 PM [link]

Looking down the UK yield curve is like staring into an abyss. While short-term and long-term interest rates are pretty similar in the eurozone and US, in the UK the curve is now clearly inverted, which often signals recession.
quote from FT

Posted by: john uk at August 4, 2007 2:13 PM [link]

A chart of Homestake Mining during the Depression is here:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/01/gold-and-k-cycle.html

Remember that the price of gold was fixed but costs were variable (declining). Bad money crowds out good so in my mind it is probably that Gold would hold its value in a depression.

Many other good gold/miners and other charts are here:
http://www.chartsrus.com/

Posted by: moab at August 4, 2007 3:04 PM [link]

moab-thanks for the links

Posted by: 2nd_ave at August 4, 2007 4:12 PM [link]

2nd_ave,

Here's another link to a graph of Homestake Mines' performance in the Great Depression: http://tinyurl.com/337cnm

Posted by: johojo at August 4, 2007 4:45 PM [link]

johojo-thanks for your link also...

The two paragraphs I found most relevant:

"Please note that from August through October 1929 Homestake Mining did decline in value, but no "where near the percent plunge in the general stock market. And by yearend Homestake was again creeping up in price. For the first few months of 1930 the gold mining industry proxy was relatively flat. However, from mid-year on Homestake began to increase in value as the DOW and DJUA rapidly and relentlessly melted away. During the next five years the Gold Mining Industry's surrogate soared in value - while stock prices were decimated by the Great Depression."

and-

All analysts and economists do not concur on a single definition of "DEFLATION." Some define "DEFLATION" as simply a continuously declining price level. Consequently, they conclude that a period of deflation is bearish for gold and gold mining stocks. The other school of thought defines "DEFLATION" as a sustained contraction of credit and money supply. The latter definition was the case in 1929… and at this very moment it appears to be rapidly developing the same scenario again.

There are rationale leading to a logical conclusion that DEFLATION is indeed bullish for gold mining stocks. The effects of the 1929 CRASH caused a sustained contraction of credit and money supply, which resulted in a growing universal suspicion of institutional credit-worthiness… that eventually extended to governments and to their fiat currencies. As institutional credit-worthiness evaporated, investors fled paper currencies (even US Treasuries), and ran to the only money which was (and remains) NOT a liability of anyone, and therefore not subject to default: GOLD."

So miners may fact initially fall with the broader market, but hopefully not as far. And if we define deflation as the author does (sustained contraction in credit and money supply)-then I think we will necessarily undergo a period of "deflation."

Posted by: 2nd_ave at August 4, 2007 5:02 PM [link]

All:
As I was watching "Fast Money" last night I heard Karen Finerman say LEND was the "BALLS OF STEEL" trade.

Our own 2nd Ave was the blog's Master of the LEND Balls of Steel trade Friday (along with his expert Sith guides) and in his honour I propose we address him with respect as the BOS of 2nd Ave. for a day or two. By then he'll be tired of it.

Good job BOS!

Posted by: Craig at August 4, 2007 5:08 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

Bill ... I WILL COMPLY !!!

Some here have touted the BRIC(Brazil, Russia, India and China)countries as the new replacement for the USA middle class in term of consumer spending for BRIC exports. I do agree that China's middle class is growing as well as other BRIC countries to varying degrees, but so is monetary inflation, which leads to inflated consumer prices.

The following chart shows 2007 money supply growth in a number of foreign countries. Leading the pack in money expansion are all the BRIC countries.

Link to Foreign M3: http://tinyurl.com/2f3ovr

Now, do I believe all the number reported on this chart are accurate. Probably not, but even if they are low balled then the BRIC countries are in even worse shape monetarily. I for one cannot invision a foreign central bank who wants to distort their M3 number by inflating it. As for the G8 countries ... yes, they have an agenda to low ball numbers for M3.

The success of such a transition from dependance on US consumers to dependance of BRIC consumers is at best questionable. In my mind success would come through better management of their fiat currencies and more specifically money supply growth. As you can see all of the BRIC countries listed are expanding money supply as fast as the US Fed and most faster. I do not rely on media fed M2 US numbers but on the US M3b, since the FED eliminated the M3 totally last year. That in itself is a statement of desperation and deceit. Current US M3b is running around 12%.

I believe the BRIC countries will be forced to build their own middle class consumers simply because the US consumer will die in debt, taxes and benefit reductions. They have no choice. Yet these BRIC countries are a very long way off from building anything close to the middle class spenders of the USA. The transition will be perilous at the least and much more lengthy than most can imagine.

Posted by: kaimu at August 4, 2007 5:13 PM [link]

craig-LOL!

Posted by: 2nd_ave at August 4, 2007 5:18 PM [link]

..make that ROFLMAO for my wife..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at August 4, 2007 5:19 PM [link]

I have a question for you guys. When people say they are in cash, typically this might mean that they have assets in a money market account. You would have to look at the prospectus. Many of these money markets invest in commercial paper, some of which is bound to be issued by mortgage banking and financing institutions. Some of this commercial paper may be "asset backed" with collateralized bond obligations. So exactly how safe is your money in a money market account?

Posted by: TennesseeTrader at August 4, 2007 5:40 PM [link]

"Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates...told investors on Friday that he and his colleagues embarked on an extensive study a few months ago to determine the extent of the derivatives risk."

"Their conclusion: "no one has a clue." According to Dalio's calculations, derivatives exposure has risen more than fourfold in the last five years to a staggering $400 trillion. Yes, that's $400 trillion with a T, or 30 times the entire gross domestic product of the U.S."

http://tinyurl.com/2ok5zy

"Total world stock market capitalization was about $37 trillion in 1990; it grew to about $51.225 trillion in March 2007. According to Morgan Stanley, the total world nominal value of derivatives stood at around $5.7 trillion in 1990; it grew to $415 trillion at the end of 2006."

http://tinyurl.com/2jo8hx

Posted by: JIM at August 4, 2007 5:44 PM [link]

Glad you like it BOS and Mrs. 2nd! I know your wife must appreciate it.

It was fun to watch and learn and we all like it when the Cara Community does well.

Posted by: Craig at August 4, 2007 5:47 PM [link]

For readers (like me) who don't know what ROFLMAO means, here is a link to urbandictionary.com
http://tinyurl.com/2aab3e

Posted by: Fred at August 4, 2007 6:14 PM [link]

Onlineaces posted yesterday that we need to influence the authorities during the next bear market by writing to our local Congressman or Parliamentarian that 'enough is enoght'. We need a level playing field. We need to stand up against the key players at HB&B/FF. How do we (in my case 'you' since I'm not a US citicen) influence the senator, the congressman, mayor or governor so that he/she will take action? Is there a template/form letter to communicate such a message?

Yes there is: http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/

This movie, which is non-profit and downloadable for free, adresses the matter of how small groups use 'the truth' to influence the masses in order to pursue their personal goals and satisfy their greed. This is a non-profit project. Even though it has some very controversial theories, don't dismiss it too quickly. Most people take what they hear on CNBC and Fox to be 'the truth'. Keep that in mind before you start questioning the validity of the sources and the hypothesis presented.

As so often pointed out on this forum, what's wrong with the world economy today is the fiat money system and the 1933 banking act (ask Kaimu and Bill about that). The last 30-40 minutes of the movie adresses these issues. Watch all of it. Better still, it explains these issues in simple terms, in order for the public to comprehend without spending 20 hours a week studying macro-economics and financial forums.

Everyone should watch this movie. I watched it last night and couldn't sleep. I've offered to do subtitles in norwegian, hoping that will help spread the message.

Particularily took not of this quote:
'Christianity along with other theistic belief systems is the fraud of the age. It serves to detatch the species from the natural world, and likewise each other. It supports blind submission to authority. It reduces human responsibility to the effect that God controls everything, and in turn aweful crimes can be justified in the name of a divine pursuit. And most importantly it empowers those who know the truth but use the myth to manipulate and control societies. The religious myth is the most powerful device ever created, and serves as the psychological soil upon which other myths can flourish.'

Not meant to offend anyone. Just an interesting thought that should also be kept in mind in other aspects where authorities try to influence the mind of the public...

Posted by: Hallvardo at August 4, 2007 7:29 PM [link]

Kaimu,
M-3 was discontinued in March of '06. And Jim, a figure of 400 trillion is tough for me to get a handle on. But with these positions (cdo's, cmo's, no matter how their sliced and diced) leveraged to the tune of ten to one, I guess that it's possible.

Posted by: BruceThomas at August 4, 2007 7:44 PM [link]

More on Cox's "re-interprtation" of accounting rules to avoid declaring their mortgage securities in default...

http://tinyurl.com/2ponaz

Posted by: JIM at August 5, 2007 8:37 AM [link]

The latest info I've got and Conor's Weekly Roundup - Credit Armageddon.

Posted by: Ron at August 5, 2007 10:08 AM [link]

BruceThomas,

While Prof. Bernanke stopped the public reporting of M3 money aggregates, we do know that US M3 continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe.

Every week in the WIR I publish a link to such a study for US M3. Bernanke can hide, but he cannot run. We've got our eye on him!

http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html"

Posted by: Bill Cara at August 5, 2007 10:42 AM [link]

JIM,
I have little knowledge in the financial area of which Cox is discussing. My simple thinking is that when loans and mortgages can be saved from default because new terms will result in their repayment then it is a good thing. There will be fewer defaults as a result of the new tax interpretation. Much home owner suffering will be avoided if mortgages don't default. The value of the assets underlying the bonds issued by the trusts will decrease when projected cash flow decreases. The risk associated with the underlying assets will increase as must the bond interest rates. Have I got it right?

Posted by: Fred at August 5, 2007 11:15 AM [link]

Dear Bill,
Understood, and I have followed said link. I remember alot of the discourse that occured last year regarding the Feds decision at the time. As you had pointed out, more fun and games to veil what was really going on with fiat money creation!
Of course this was explained to be in our best interest. (LOL)

Posted by: BruceThomas at August 5, 2007 11:15 AM [link]

Looking at the Dow chart we could see a low of 12600 in this correction on the Dow.

The VV Value line suggests stocks are getting cheap and maintaining their value.

Personally I think that stocks are a good buy and the market will put in another leg down before running higher.

The Buy/Sell ratio on the market has reached these extreems only twice in the last 5 years; in June of 2006 and May of 2005. The Buy/Sell ratio is a good indication of of market confidence and normally go to extremes when the market has peaked or bottomed. You have to go back to the bottom of the market in Oct. 2002 to find the third time the market Buy/Sell ratio was to a more extreme than now.

Posted by: Peter at August 5, 2007 11:28 AM [link]

Peter,

I agree with your forecast in regards to foreign equities. I'm staying away from U.S. equities. For the past two years, I've been tracking a watchlist of 100 U.S. and international blue chips which I would like to own at the right price. Eight of them hit my price points this week for the first time. I chose price points significantly below prices paid by mutual fund managers who I respect. I also considered many fundamentals. At least twenty of the watchlist stocks are now below RSI 30. I see more declines coming in the short-term. If all the stars align, my current PM holdings will increase throughout August and September and I can divest of half of them and start nibbling at blue chip bargains in October for the long-term. I am not in the "armageddon is here" camp with regards to quality foreign holdings. However, I'll give U.S. equities a very wide berth until the U.S. dollar is finished tanking. As a Canadian, even with a good U.S. equity, you can't beat the exchange rate losses.

Posted by: Fred at August 5, 2007 12:00 PM [link]

..make that ROFLMAO for my wife..

2nd, not "ROFLMAO with my wife"? ;)

Posted by: number2son at August 5, 2007 12:03 PM [link]

Who SOLD OUT a piece of national treasure vital to our survival, to Russians, dirt cheap? On paragraph 4.

Watch out SWC on monday for earnings release after hour. Crooks knocked down SWC from $16.47 to $8.56 in less than 3 months, for no good reason. Maybe they want to sell the remainder to Russians cheap?

Deeply oversold, I expect a blowout SWC quarterly earning, and from here SWC MUST have a dramatic reversal and a great rally on the good earnings. Don't let go of the opportunity!

Posted by: JJ2000426 at August 5, 2007 12:20 PM [link]

Had a pretty eye-opening moment when I looked at the 3 year chart of M3 at Bill's link and compared it to the market indices - an amazing correlation.

Posted by: chas at August 5, 2007 12:43 PM [link]

jj2000426 - thanks for the heads-up on SWC. I'll listen to the conference call on Tues.

BTW, paragraph 4 of WHAT, JJ?

Also, isn't SWC still a "falling knife"? I'd feel MUCH more comfortable buying at 8, from where it has rebounded in Aug, '05 and Sept, Oct '06.

Posted by: Jock at August 5, 2007 1:03 PM [link]

JIM, the estimable Tanta over at the CR blog has a brilliant post on the SFAS 140 changes.

http://tinyurl.com/38juaw

Posted by: number2son at August 5, 2007 1:53 PM [link]

Thank you MarkM for your frequent inputs last week!

And I appreciate Bill's continuous efforts to upgrade this site again and again. Thank you Bill.

I don't write much but I'm a sponge soaking up the info here.

FYI I don't short or do options-makes me nervous. But I'm in jr.
miners, tech, and consumer staples.
Last week I bought KFT, PG, INTC, TXN, CSCO. 1/2 positions.
My miner's are KRY, UXG,WGDF, ECU, GUY, HL, SLW.

First time in miner's and I have been selling on highs, and buying on lows, until 2 mos. ago. Waiting for The Big High.
I have about 30% in Goldminer's, 30% in tech, and the rest in
healthcare, energy, and QID.

I've been in the market since 1998 as an individual investor. During 1999-2002, I was diversified and 30% cash. But I didn't
open any of my Schwab monthly acct. reports, and ignored any
market news, until the beginning of 2003 when I bought stocks
again with my cash.

So, this downturn my eyes are wide open, and I'm reading my
blogs, listening to my podcasts with CNBC on mute. I do this full time now ( 3 yrs.). It will be interesting to see what works better- eyes wide shut- or open.

I'm anxious about my 30% in Jr. Miners because I don't use stops
because of their volitility. But I watch the price and volume throughout the day and I have my finger on the sell button.

I learn from this blog alot (especially the WIR), and it's led to other useful blogs and articles that the community has posted.

I can't comment much because it increases my pain to type. That's why I have the time for my portfolio's- I can't work anymore. You can always find something good out of something bad!

Sarah-Hadassah

Posted by: SH at August 5, 2007 2:11 PM [link]

Jock and JJ, I own some SWC and would like to see an upside surprise as much as the next shareholder, but I don't think it's in the cards:

http://tinyurl.com/27dhvw

Even so, the stock is oversold. But needless to say I'm glad I reduced my cost basis by selling calls.

The earnings call should clarify SWC's outlook. In any case, this isn't a stock that moves in either direction with subtlety.

Posted by: number2son at August 5, 2007 2:14 PM [link]

SH - I don't know you, of course, but am SO sorry to hear that typing increases your pain. Have you tried dictation software which translates spoken word into text? I'm told it's getting pretty good. You'd only have to edit, not type full text.

Surely, someone in the community could recommend the best dictation software.

Posted by: Jock at August 5, 2007 2:16 PM [link]

Number2son, great link. I am a little conflicted on this issue. Fred also made some good points. If I was a holder of AAA, I certainly have to worry about how many future losses I might take but then, on the other hand, why not let the borrower and lender work on some modifications to prevent the borrowers from loosing their home.

Posted by: JIM at August 5, 2007 3:27 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

Bill and BruceThomas and others ... I refer to M3 as M3b now. M3b is the extension of the old M3 that was discotinued by the FED last year. I think it is important to distinguish between the two. See the charts all refer to the extension as M3b.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/oqqhl

Posted by: kaimu at August 5, 2007 3:59 PM [link]

Ok, I am a suspicious, cynical old coot, but I’ve survived a LOT of ups and downs in these markets. We all know that the “playing field is not level” We know that we are often lied to, front-runned, and/or rooked when listening to Gov data, Broker “advice”, and media’s mis-info; yet that mis-info colors our thinking and decisions to some degree.

This week, there is a lot of talk about a so-called “near breakdown” by one of the tv clowns and in much of the talk at various sites there is a thread of belief that perhaps said clown was sincerely expressing some personal concerns. Give me a break!!!

Let’s see some possible other reasons for that “act” that might actually be at work here.
- FOMC meets on Tuesday. Banks/Brokers would like to see the mortgage debacle relieved with lowered rates, but with inflation on the minds of most of the non-brain-dead, how can such an obvious favor for crony B/B’s be passed onto a public who has NO idea what an Alt-A is? Well, why not have a “master clown” do a show with big crocodile tears about how bad the situation is. What situation? Dunno, but he SURE was worried! Get the picture?
- But wait, you say, the Market really has fallen so far and so fast!!! Maybe, but remember a post a couple of weeks ago about large pension funds actively auctioning off to B/B’s the rights to short sell stock shares held in those pension funds? Makes it easy for the B/B’s to drive markets down far and fast, and then sell back to themselves sufficient shares (from running stops) to pay back those borrowed, plus have some more for the run up to come (after FOMC lowers rates?). Ah yes, bonus$ downward, and bonus$ upward.
- Of course, there is that political card too: FOMC saves the American home owner from (predatory bank practices) mortgage problems.

Any supporting evidence for my reasoning. Well, what happened to the PPT recently - suddenly not there to push the Markets back up? What happened to influx of liquidity pumps - suddenly not there?

The pieces seem to fit together, but then who outside the “inner circle” really knows? I have no idea what the FOMC will actually do, or how it will be spun, but I am in cash and plan to trade the charts, not media.

In any case, I am just a suspicious, cynical old coot.
spot

Posted by: spot at August 5, 2007 4:23 PM [link]

SH and Jock,

I use Nuance Dragon Naturally Speaking 9, and it is very good.

Now if I could get the FTP to work over this stupid $12/day ISP that is so slow my system times out. It took 20 minutes to upload the WIR and now I can't upload the charts that were screwed up at the end.

But all is ok, I just gave in and am now drinking Kalik. I'd go to the store but the thought of three cans of coke costing more than the 40 oz'r of Rum turns me off.

Posted by: Bill Cara at August 5, 2007 5:55 PM [link]

Check, check

Posted by: Rigdon at August 5, 2007 6:51 PM [link]

Having had a house on Caye Caulker in Belize back in the 70's, and thinking about Nicaragua as a second home today (as you know), I am pleased to hear you starting to realize the difficulty inherent in these moves. Not to say that they aren't a good idea, but attitude adjustment is very much a part of the issue, and for many that may be too emotionally expensive.
On the scale of inexpensive living, I can tell you from personal experience that there is no more reasonable place on earth to live than Nicaragua, amazing tax breaks and health care but would you be happy there?
We each have to experience and decide for ourselves.
I have decided to take my Airstream Bambi and cruise down to the Baja this winter. I have held up my plans to buy a casa in Granada (Nica) to see what Ortega plans to do.
Sierra Wieless now has a 875 Aircard ($300.) that apparently gives you HSDPA speed from anywhere in the world. That's for me if it works. (SWIR may be a big buy based on this new product. Any ideas anyone?)
Bill, before you decide to buy the yacht/ cruising cat and go afloat, please talk to me. As you know that was a big part of my business, life, and lifestyle for 25 years, so please let me help you.
As you have so helped me with your area of expertise.
Thank you my friend.
Rigdon

Posted by: Rigdon at August 5, 2007 7:14 PM [link]

Rigdon -

That SWIR card sounds very versatile, but I would STILL check with tech support of the networks you want to use it on, and verify that they support its protocols on their networks. There are lots of devils in the details ! For example, it seems "at home" with all GSM protocols, but wouldn't seemingly work on Sprint/Nextel's CDMA/IDEN or Verizon's CDMA networks. I just don't know how the cellular operators in Baja or Nicaragua handle their data services.

Posted by: Jock at August 5, 2007 8:26 PM [link]

Rig

Agree Nicaraugua is very reasonable and Granada a great place. Wish you luck with the plans.

Don't have my notes right now, but recall a great restaurant owned by a Canadian woman there. The young chef learned from his father who was the head chef at the French embassy in Managua.

Be careful hiking in the mountains--still a number of land mines out there.

Posted by: Seamus at August 5, 2007 8:41 PM [link]

Thanks, Jock. SWIR also offers 595U Aircard to work with Sprint, but there are roaming charges in Mexico (30 cents/minute).
I will research more before buying.
Seamus, I can't remember the name of the restaurant either, but I think it was on a corner across the street from Casa San Fransisco. If that is the one you mean, the young couple have (most regretably) moved on. I am not sure why or where they went.
I have no intention of bushwacking in the northern mountain areas as I know there is plenty of "ordinance" laying about. But thanks for the reminder.

Posted by: Rigdon at August 6, 2007 8:59 AM [link]

August 4, 2007

Saturday Commentary & Community Chat, Aug. 4, 2007, 10:19AM ET

Discourse

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