At some point this week, however, I believe trader enthusiasm will take hold and that the ‘ol Bull will return for an encore.

Let’s see what happened yesterday. [I am having more problems with the ISP. This is awfully frustrating. Subject to my having the services available, I will add the missing charts and analysis later.]

Central bankers obviously got what they wanted from their recent money supply infusions as there was a moderation of volatility on decreased volume. Look at the Cara 100 tables below to see (i) the lack of new highs/lows, and (ii) the drying up of increased trading volumes. This means that traders are very uncertain as to the immediate future market direction.

In US markets yesterday, there was late day weakness in energy and brokerage stocks that took the major market indexes off intraday highs, resulting in a marginally lower Dow (-3.01), S&P 500 (-0.72), and NASDAQ Composite (-2.65).

The European Central Bank added another 47.5 billion euros ($65 billion) into the money supply Monday; the Bank of Japan added over $5 billion. The Fed's July bank survey of senior loan officers showed obvious tightening subprime loan standards and weaker demand for consumer loans, including constricted commercial real estate loan standards.

European markets closed much higher Monday amid cash infusions by the ECB. This morning they are mixed. So too are the Asia-Pacific markets. Traders are waiting for renewed confidence to become apparent in US markets. US traders are awaiting the spin of this week’s economic data, and for any indication the Fed might withdraw their recent liquidity injection.

US July retail sales rose +0.3 pct (per Commerce Department estimates). Traders are not convinced that retail sales are healthy, and even if the data is accurate, the increase will not be seen as an indicator of stable growth in retail spending, which the market needs to see before flowing capital back to the Retailers.

As many retailers continue to struggle with sales, Eddie Lampert’s Sears Holdings (SHLD) lowered 2Q earnings guidance. More of that is expected across the industry.

US June inventories lifted +0.4 pct, apparently because improved software systems are helping companies maintain adequate levels of inventory and more accurate records.

A Goldman Sachs conference call announced that it is not unwinding its Global Alpha Fund or its North American Equity Opportunities Fund.

In its first quarter as a public company, Blackstone Group (BX) reported a tripling of net income more due to strength in all business segments.

Nymex Crude Oil futures ($WTIC) closed +$0.15/bbl higher at $71.62, but well off session highs.

Comex gold and silver finished mostly flat, and so did the USD, although it was down -0.1 pct to 118.29 yen.

With all the increased liquidity from central banks, US Treasury yields turned negative with the 10-year yield at 4.766. Analysts are pointing to a fall below 4.643 pct as a point where a long-term technical breakdown could occur. However, without a serious recession probability, I don’t see that occurring.

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International Economics Review

This is a week that important US economic data is being released. The term “Wall of Worry” is likely to apply as stock prices lift, as it did immediately post-9/11, the last time that the G-20 central banks agreed to inject massive amounts of liquidity into global capital markets.

US Economic Calendar

Econoday Weekly International Report

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The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Monday session Cara 100 gainers.

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Here are Cara 100 losers from Monday.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Monday session.

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes, ie, Money Flow, especially when markets start trending.

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Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus

I am appreciative to the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc for providing the Cara 100 summaries.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

Here are the charts of up to a dozen stocks with RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from Thursday.

RSI > 70 (1)

RSI < 30 (11) (Without ASD post-spinoff)

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Here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for Monday:

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

Yesterday’s session was a quiet day, closing at 13286. Futures this morning are fairly flat.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq Composite was also quiet, closing at 2542.

The six-month chart shows the technical resistance levels that traders must push through if the Bulls are to stay in control. It will be interesting to see if the tech-strong Nasdaq can hold up here while the financials-heavy NYSE (and Dow 30) undergo their credit market shake-out.

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International Equity Markets Review

The indexes across Asia-Pacific equity markets were mixed today.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow moved up +0.27 pct to 16844. The technical support level is holding for now.

The Mar-07 16600 support level for the Nikkei 225 of the very important Japanese market is the critical one to watch this summer. I believe the successful test will set up a brief rally.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Today, Singapore was up +0.18 pct to 3386.6. I mentioned last week I could see “some bids arriving”, but the former enthusiasm for stocks is not quite there yet.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Last Friday morning I wrote: “Some bids came into the Shanghai market late in the session too.

The Shanghai Composite rallied +1.49 pct yesterday, and a further +1.09 pct today, to close at 4872.8.

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .

The Hong Kong market is holding its ground after Friday’s knock-down. Today, the index gained +0.53 pct, after gaining +0.45 pct yesterday. It closed today at 22,007.

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Today, the Bombay Stock Exchange BSE 30 Sensex index was flat to close at 15000.

Download the Deepak Lalwani “Confidence and Optimism” Report on India .

Download Astaire Weekly Report on India (dated August 7) courtesy of Deepak Lalwani.

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

The All Ordinaries index of Australia lost -0.75 pct today, after it had gained +1.04 pct yesterday. On Friday it had lost -3.6 pct as basic materials sold off.

Traders are still nervous. They are not as positive as I with regard to the basic materials outlook. They see a stronger USD, which is keeping commodity price growth in check.

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Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

All green arrows at 8:41am ET. The recovery has started, as anticipated here.

Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

At 9:13am ET, the FTSE is up +0.51 pct to 6250.5.

In mid-week last week I opined that “this index was over-sold and that there might be a recovery back to the 6500-6600 level, but it now appears that support at 6000 must first be tested.” In fact, it did hold with a low of 6038. Now the index is side-tracking.

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US Dollar Review

Here is the chart of the recent trading.

The trade-weighted USD has lifted, and I expect it to stay strong as long as the central banks are pumping money.

Later, however, the injected liquidity must come back out, and the USD will fall.

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Oil Review

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Spot gold has remained flat since Friday mid-day.

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Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

Spot silver is flat.

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Here is the The Goldminers stock index chart.

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I apologize for the ISP shutting down on me again just as I was doing the final few pages. Without a back-up, there is nothing I can do. It also keeps me late, and frustrated. I’ll add the missing charts later.

The ISP works, but the upload and download speeds drop to a crawl, and my system times out and I then have to re-start. Instead of taking seconds, things become minutes, then I start making errors. But, it is what it is.

Have a good trading day. If you are bullish, I do believe things are looking up for a month or two. If you are cautious and/or negative, this is a time of opportunity to sell into strength.

“Buy into weakness; sell into strength” is a successful traders mantra.

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